Tatum the only player to go pro early?

[BigZ]

It had appeared go into the season that Giles and Tatum were surely only going to play for Duke one year with Boldan likely to go with them. Many mock drafts also included Frank Jackson as well.

Flash forward to today where Giles and Boldan have suffered injury setbacks and have a lack of consistency when on the cour. Both guys have shown some good things but honestly if either performed like they were supposed to Duke would not be in the position it is now.

Tatum suffered an injury which he has overcome and is likely to be a top 5 pick still.

Frank has been really good but I don't think he is a one and done player.

Then there is Grayson, he still will prob go pro since he is going to graduate in three years but given his issues and his play his draft stock has fallen and he might want another year to fix that.

Luke was not a guy anyone considered to be a guy going pro after this year but there are some mock drafts that have him getting drafted I. First round. If all those other guys stay maybe he decides it's best to capitalize on this season

[NashvilleDevil]

It had appeared go into the season that Giles and Tatum were surely only going to play for Duke one year with Boldan likely to go with them. Many mock drafts also included Frank Jackson as well.

Flash forward to today where Giles and Boldan have suffered injury setbacks and have a lack of consistency when on the cour. Both guys have shown some good things but honestly if either performed like they were supposed to Duke would not be in the position it is now.

Tatum suffered an injury which he has overcome and is likely to be a top 5 pick still.

Frank has been really good but I don't think he is a one and done player.

Then there is Grayson, he still will prob go pro since he is going to graduate in three years but given his issues and his play his draft stock has fallen and he might want another year to fix that.

Luke was not a guy anyone considered to be a guy going pro after this year but there are some mock drafts that have him getting drafted I. First round. If all those other guys stay maybe he decides it's best to capitalize on this season

No he won't be the only player to go pro early

[CDu]

Seems like every year we have one of these discussions.

Generally speaking, when you have one-and-dones coming in, you are almost certainly going to have one-and-dones coming out.

Aside from McRoberts, have we had any expected one-and-dones who DIDN'T go pro after their freshman year? Have we had any expected one-and-dones since 2011 who didn't?

So given history, I think it is safe to assume we will have more than one one-and-done this year.

[brlftz]

Seems like every year we have one of these discussions.

Generally speaking, when you have one-and-dones coming in, you are almost certainly going to have one-and-dones coming out.

Aside from McRoberts, have we had any expected one-and-dones who DIDN'T go pro after their freshman year? Have we had any expected one-and-dones since 2011 who didn't?

So given history, I think it is safe to assume we will have more than one one-and-done this year.

A possible difference is that I don't think we've ever had one and dones struggle this much.

[Edouble]

Tatum, Giles, Bolden and Grayson are all going pro. That's how it works.

We are in the heart of the ACC season. Do people seriously want to discuss this now, in January?

[ChrisP]

Tatum, Giles, Bolden and Grayson are all going pro. That's how it works.

We are in the heart of the ACC season. Do people seriously want to discuss this now, in January?

No. Moving on...

[CDu]

A possible difference is that I don't think we've ever had one and dones struggle this much.

It really doesn't matter. NBA teams aren't going to draft some of these guys based on their play as freshmen in college. Especially coming off injury.

[Bob Green]

Potential


adjective

1. possible, as opposed to actual

2. capable of being or becoming

This is a subject best discussed in April.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Potential



This is a subject best discussed in April.

Bob - while I agree this is best to discuss for April, your argument doesn't hold water.

You define "potential" as "possible, as opposed to actual" and "capable of being or becoming". Isn't that what this team is right now? This team is all potential, few results.

[Bob Green]

Bob - while I agree this is best to discuss for April, your argument doesn't hold water.

You define "potential" as "possible, as opposed to actual" and "capable of being or becoming". Isn't that what this team is right now? This team is all potential, few results.

I didn't define "potential" I copied and pasted from an online dictionary. That NBA General Managers draft players based on potential is a commonly accepted message board fact.

[camion]

I didn't define "potential" I copied and pasted from an online dictionary. That NBA General Managers draft players based on potential is a commonly accepted message board fact.

Of course, it's common knowledge. Linky. (http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/common-knowledge/n9612?snl=1)





I couldn't resist throwing in that SNL skit. :)

[duke4ever19]

Of course, it's common knowledge. Linky. (http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/common-knowledge/n9612?snl=1)





I couldn't resist throwing in that SNL skit. :)

Wow, that messed with my brain. :eek:

[Pghdukie]

Seems like every year we have one of these discussions.

Generally speaking, when you have one-and-dones coming in, you are almost certainly going to have one-and-dones coming out.

Aside from McRoberts, have we had any expected one-and-dones who DIDN'T go pro after their freshman year? Have we had any expected one-and-dones since 2011 who didn't?

So given history, I think it is safe to assume we will have more than one one-and-done this year.

Kyle Singler

[Kedsy]

Kyle Singler

Was expected to be one-and-done? I don't remember that. Don't remember hearing anything of the kind before he came to Duke or anytime during his freshman year, or even after his freshman season during "test the waters" time.

[Bluedog]

Was expected to be one-and-done? I don't remember that. Don't remember hearing anything of the kind before he came to Duke or anytime during his freshman year, or even after his freshman season during "test the waters" time.

I would agree with you, but he was the RSCI sixth rated recruit in the country whereas Marques was 16th. But maybe times have changed...

[Kedsy]

I would agree with you, but he was the RSCI sixth rated recruit in the country whereas Marques was 16th. But maybe times have changed...

Times have definitely changed in this regard, although it's worth noting that I believe Kyle was the only player in the top 8 that season who wasn't one-and-done. Still, as I said before I honestly don't remember any one-and-done chatter about him.

Also, Marques Bolden was 11th in the RSCI, not 16th (he was 16th in ESPN's rankings, which is what they always flash up on the screen during telecasts, but ESPN was Marques's worst ranking among all the services that make up the RSCI).

[ricks68]

I didn't define "potential" I copied and pasted from an online dictionary. That NBA General Managers draft players based on potential is a commonly accepted message board fact.

Correctomundo, as far as we all should be concerned.

ricks

[dukelifer]

There is no question that the NBA drafts on potential- but the chances that the player will be a superstar - a future face of the league- is pretty low. The NBA is a tough gig. Of the recent OADs only Jabari and Kyrie had success out of the gate - minus Jabari's ACL injury. Rivers, Okafor, Jones, Winslow and Ingram have had major challenges early in their careers. But if it is money you want- the sooner you get to the second contract the better.

[Indoor66]

There is no question that the NBA drafts on potential- but the chances that the player will be a superstar - a future face of the league- is pretty low. The NBA is a tough gig. Of the recent OADs only Jabari and Kyrie had success out of the gate - minus Jabari's ACL injury. Rivers, Okafor, Jones, Winslow and Ingram have had major challenges early in their careers. But if it is money you want- the sooner you get to the second contract the better.

I have to disagree with you on Winslow. He was the first man off the bench his rookie year. His defense kept him on the court for extended periods. When Wade left, he moved into the starter spot and has remained there - except for injury times - and this year injury (wrist surgery) has taken him out for the year.

[NM Duke Fan]

I have to disagree with you on Winslow. He was the first man off the bench his rookie year. His defense kept him on the court for extended periods. When Wade left, he moved into the starter spot and has remained there - except for injury times - and this year injury (wrist surgery) has taken him out for the year.

Wiinslow came to mind immediately for me as well, a key role on that team immediately due to advanced defensive capacities.

[UrinalCake]

You have to consider how insanely good and deep this year's freshmen class is. Last year Ben Simmons was the only guy considered a potential franchise changer. This season there are probably 5-10 such players. The Celtics must be kicking themselves because if there was ever a year that you wanted to have multiple first and second round picks, this would be it. So if you have to choose between drafting a guy like Dennis Smith, Marquelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson, Jonathan Isaac, etc. who have potential AND have shown great performance on the court, versus drafting one of our guys who only have potential, then which makes more sense? In the case of Tatum, he has actively shown that many of the positive things people thought about him - he is a heady and cerebral player with great feel for the game - are not true and that he knocks against him - not an elite athlete, not a good three point shooter - may be too much to overcome.

If you take away all the high school ratings and hype coming into the season and just look at what these guys have done in the past three months and base their potential on that, I don't see how any of our guys are in the lottery.

[Indoor66]

You have to consider how insanely good and deep this year's freshmen class is. Last year Ben Simmons was the only guy considered a potential franchise changer. This season there are probably 5-10 such players. The Celtics must be kicking themselves because if there was ever a year that you wanted to have multiple first and second round picks, this would be it. So if you have to choose between drafting a guy like Dennis Smith, Marquelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson, Jonathan Isaac, etc. who have potential AND have shown great performance on the court, versus drafting one of our guys who only have potential, then which makes more sense? In the case of Tatum, he has actively shown that many of the positive things people thought about him - he is a heady and cerebral player with great feel for the game - are not true and that he knocks against him - not an elite athlete, not a good three point shooter - may be too much to overcome.

If you take away all the high school ratings and hype coming into the season and just look at what these guys have done in the past three months and base their potential on that, I don't see how any of our guys are in the lottery.

Bingo. Thus far the performance is not there.

[NM Duke Fan]

You have to consider how insanely good and deep this year's freshmen class is. Last year Ben Simmons was the only guy considered a potential franchise changer. This season there are probably 5-10 such players. The Celtics must be kicking themselves because if there was ever a year that you wanted to have multiple first and second round picks, this would be it. So if you have to choose between drafting a guy like Dennis Smith, Marquelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson, Jonathan Isaac, etc. who have potential AND have shown great performance on the court, versus drafting one of our guys who only have potential, then which makes more sense? In the case of Tatum, he has actively shown that many of the positive things people thought about him - he is a heady and cerebral player with great feel for the game - are not true and that he knocks against him - not an elite athlete, not a good three point shooter - may be too much to overcome.

If you take away all the high school ratings and hype coming into the season and just look at what these guys have done in the past three months and base their potential on that, I don't see how any of our guys are in the lottery.

Agreed. Especially within the context of how many of the best freshman are playing great basketball in many facets of the game this year, Smith was a fine example. It is a deep class. I personally don't see any of the current Duke players in the lottery this year unless there is a vastly accelerated evolution, and there will be some interesting and very important decisions to be made ...

[duke74]

You have to consider how insanely good and deep this year's freshmen class is. Last year Ben Simmons was the only guy considered a potential franchise changer. This season there are probably 5-10 such players. The Celtics must be kicking themselves because if there was ever a year that you wanted to have multiple first and second round picks, this would be it. So if you have to choose between drafting a guy like Dennis Smith, Marquelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson, Jonathan Isaac, etc. who have potential AND have shown great performance on the court, versus drafting one of our guys who only have potential, then which makes more sense? In the case of Tatum, he has actively shown that many of the positive things people thought about him - he is a heady and cerebral player with great feel for the game - are not true and that he knocks against him - not an elite athlete, not a good three point shooter - may be too much to overcome.

If you take away all the high school ratings and hype coming into the season and just look at what these guys have done in the past three months and base their potential on that, I don't see how any of our guys are in the lottery.

Agree...but they must be clicking their heels over the gift the Nets (and Billy King/Prokhorov) gave them - an unprotected lottery pick for aging stars on the downside...just to wave a Brooklyn flag in the move from NJ.

[jv001]

Agreed. Especially within the context of how many of the best freshman are playing great basketball in many facets of the game this year, Smith was a fine example. It is a deep class. I personally don't see any of the current Duke players in the lottery this year unless there is a vastly accelerated evolution, and there will be some interesting and very important decisions to be made ...

It sure gives them something to play for. It would be different if Duke didn't have but one NBA type player to get wins. We have at least 5 or 6 NBA types. We don't need one player trying to carry the team. We need one player that refuses to let Duke lose. GoDuke!

[Skydog]

..
If you take away all the high school ratings and hype coming into the season and just look at what these guys have done in the past three months and base their potential on that, I don't see how any of our guys are in the lottery.

You are right that there will be a lot of competition for those lottery spots. But for the bigger guys long-term NBA potential (and that is what team managers will be drafting for) is more a function of physical gifts than current skill sets. Tatum - despite his undisciplined play so far in college - will still be highly valued because he's a quick, agile and coordinated 6'8" 205 lb guy with a 6'11" wingspan. And Giles is an 18 yo who is 6'11", 220 lbs with a 7' 3" wingspan. He will just have to show is that his old quickness is returning and avoid injuries to be a lottery pick. Bolden (6'11", 7'5" wingspan) has even more size but I don't think he has shown the silky smoothness and quickness that Giles has shown in the past. I could see him staying another year.

Bottom line is that despite their current struggles in college it isn't that hard for an NBA scout to imagine either Tatum or Giles in 3 or 4 years becoming long time NBA starters who are able to both defend and score against their very athletic NBA opponents.

Kennard is at the opposite end of the spectrum. Great college player with massive skills and superior bball IQ but limited NBA potential. At 6'5" with a 6'5" wingspan and relatively slow foot speed can you ever see him being a starter in today's NBA? There are sooo many much more athletic 6'5"+ guards that can shoot in the NBA now and in the pipeline. He has shown brilliantly in college but his "NBA potential" is likely as a role player, if that.*

Short version: barring injury we are likely losing Tatum, Giles and Grayson to the draft no matter how poorly they play in the next couple of months.

*He's one of my favorite players so don't tell him I said that.

[CDu]

You have to consider how insanely good and deep this year's freshmen class is. Last year Ben Simmons was the only guy considered a potential franchise changer. This season there are probably 5-10 such players. The Celtics must be kicking themselves because if there was ever a year that you wanted to have multiple first and second round picks, this would be it. So if you have to choose between drafting a guy like Dennis Smith, Marquelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson, Jonathan Isaac, etc. who have potential AND have shown great performance on the court, versus drafting one of our guys who only have potential, then which makes more sense? In the case of Tatum, he has actively shown that many of the positive things people thought about him - he is a heady and cerebral player with great feel for the game - are not true and that he knocks against him - not an elite athlete, not a good three point shooter - may be too much to overcome.

If you take away all the high school ratings and hype coming into the season and just look at what these guys have done in the past three months and base their potential on that, I don't see how any of our guys are in the lottery.

But you shouldn't take away said hype and recruiting rankings. Those rankings were earned. Tatum and Giles have long track records prior to Duke and the measurables that the NBA loves. The NBA is not going to be scared away by this season's results. Giles and Tatum are going to be top-10 picks this summer, regardless of their seasons at Duke.

[flyingdutchdevil]

But you shouldn't take away said hype and recruiting rankings. Those rankings were earned. Tatum and Giles have long track records prior to Duke and the measurables that the NBA loves. The NBA is not going to be scared away by this season's results. Giles and Tatum are going to be top-10 picks this summer, regardless of their seasons at Duke.

I'll bet one will be a top 10 pick. The other will be first round, likely mid teens. Lottery remains to be seen.