Anatomy of a lost game we should have won

[CDu]

So, first I must caveat the below by saying that the loss last night was a huge disappointment. It was a game we desperately needed in the ACC race. Losing it on the heels of a huge second half against Miami is very deflating. No other way to say it.

That being said, I think it's important to analyze what went wrong in this game. How did we seemingly control the game for large stretches only to find a way to lose? In this case, I think we can break it down into two glaring stretches: one very short, one slightly longer.

Final 36.6 seconds of the first half. We are up 11, and pushing the lead out and seemingly imposing our will. Our best shooter (Kennard) is on the FT line. Kennard hits the first, to push the lead to 12. But he uncharacteristically misses the second. It was close, but ultimately rattled out barely. No big deal, right? State still had to go ~90 feet to score, and we should have had guys back. Well, Abu got the ball to Smith at our free throw line. Smith sprinted up the right side of the court, with Jones cutting him off and forcing him to the corner.

Unfortunately, the wheels come off from there. Smith squares up, then makes a nice crossover to get into the lane. Ideally, Jones prevents that, but Smith is an NBA-level talent and you can't stay in front of him every time. Especially when you have to respect his outside shot. So Smith gets by Jones and into the lane. No problem right? We have Jefferson and Giles there to help. Well, neither guy does a good job of helping. Giles stays too high near his man (Kapita) at the free throw line and never gets down to help. Gotta prefer Kapita shooting a 15 foot jumper there. Giles needs to slide over and cut off the path to the rim. Jefferson could have also helped, and eventually did slide over. But he also doesn't get there in time. And then he jumps out of Smith's way when Smith goes up for the layup. I'll chalk that up to miscommunication, but primarily that's on Giles for not helping. Smith makes an acrobatic layup, and the officials call a foul that I didn't see (must have been Jones slightly bumping Smith with the body from behind). So the 12 point lead is down to 9 in just 9.6 seconds.

But we now have time to take the last shot, right? Going into the half with at least a 9-point lead is still a great half. Well... Jones gets the ball and receives a ball screen to the middle. He finds a back-cutting Allen with about 7 seconds left. But the officials call him for a travel. So with 6.4 seconds left, now 9 points is our best case scenario for a halftime lead. And Smith made an NBA three with a hand in his face at the buzzer to end the half. What could have been a 10+ point lead turned into 6, with the momentum in State's hands.

Ultimately, not a ton of mistakes. Just one bad defensive possession, one tough turnover, and a pair of great plays by Smith.

Up 9 with 6:35 left. After allowing State to come back and even take the lead in the second half, we had once again established a comfy 9 point lead with 6:35 left. State was reeling. We felt good. They called time out. On the ensuing possession, State gets a wide open 3 for Henderson. Thankfully, one of their best shooters missed an incredibly high-percentage shot. But unfortunately Allen didn't box out Rowan, and neither Jefferson nor Tatum (both on the left side of the floor near the lane) sought him out either. Rowan and Allen jump for it, and Rowan is only able to tip it away from Allen. Unfortunately, the lack of boxing out continued. Jefferson didn't box out Kapita at all. And the batted ball by Rowan went to Kapita. And Jefferson (who reacted late to the batted ball) didn't get in position to prevent the easy layup for Kapita. This can be summarized by the failure of our defenders to box out. Twice. Now up 7.

On offense, we get the ball to Tatum on the elbow. He makes a nice move and gets a finger roll opportunity from 2 feet out. It, unfortunately misses. It's okay, that happens. But for some reason, Tatum falls down and takes forever to get up. State punishes us with a 5-on-4, which results in a foul on Kapita at the rim. Thankfully he missed the layup, but hit both free throws. Up 5.

Next possession, State goes zone, and Allen hits a wide open 18 footer. On the other end, we get a stop as Kapita fouls out going over the back on a missed contested runner by Smith. Yay, a minor win for us! Up 7.

Next possession, State again goes zone. Tatum goes baseline and misses a driving layup. Tough angle, but one we could have used. State gets the rebound, rushes up court, and misses a layup. Push. Up 7.

We come down, and Allen gets a WIDE open corner 3. He misses it, and Kennard is called for a foul trying to box out Smith. At least he tried to box out. Smith makes both. Tough swing there for us. Up 5.

We come down, State stays in zone, Jones gets a WIDE (I mean, as wide as it gets) open 3. He steps into it from about 23 feet, but misses. State gets the rebound. Smith brings it up semi-slow, but our bigs (Giles and Tatum) don't get back. The result is effectively a full-court iso for Smith on Jones. Smith is going to win that battle more often than not. And he did, with a really nice spin move (right past a stationary and non-helpful Tatum) for a layup. Up 3.

Kennard gets the ball and drives into the lane. He picks up his dribble about 10 feet from the basket with Abu on him. Bad decision. He tries to fake Abu out, but doesn't get separation. He then rushes a pass to the perimeter, but misses Tatum and the ball goes out of bounds. That brings us to the under-4 time out. On the ensuing possession, our perimeter defense is actually okay. Giles hedges solidly, pushes Smith all the way to the sideline. But Tatum fails in his responsibility of helping on Giles' man, leaving Abu under the basket. Smith whips a brilliant, 30-foot wraparound pass just past a late, lunging Tatum. Abu catches and dunks. Up just 1. In 3 minutes it has been a 10-2 run for State.

Next possession, we get a post up for Giles on Rowan. Big mismatch advantage. It's the type of thing we'd love to see earlier in the game or half. But with us in the 1-and-1, Rowan fouls before the shot. Giles misses the front end. State pushes it up, and Smith hits a 26 foot 3 semi-contested (would have been a heavily contested normal 3. Down 2.

Kennard answers against State's zone with a 3. Up 1. Then Duke calls a timeout. I assume the reason is to give our guys a rest and to get Jefferson back into the game. But State draws up a nice set, which results in an uncontested alley-oop for Abu as Allen doesn't see the Rowan screen for Abu and instead decides to help on a potential Smith drive that never happens. Abu rolls uncontested to the rim off the screen, easy alley oop. Down 1.

We get a wide open 3 for Kennard, who misses short. State rebounds. Rowan gets an open look for a 3 from straight on, and makes. Down 4.

Allen fakes a pass and gets a quick look from about 26 feet. He misses long, State rebounds. Smith goes around a double screen, Kennard doesn't see that his man has screened Jefferson whose man is screening the ball, and fails to pick up Smith, who scores a driving layup. Down 6.

That is basically the ball game. Sure, we scrambled late and had a chance to tie or win on a last-second play. But in a 5-minute span we got outscored 20-5 to go from a 9-point lead to a 6-point deficit.

Worth noting that all of this happened with State playing small ball. They rotated Kapita and Abu at the 5, and had four guards/wings (Smith, Johnson, Henderson, and Rowan) and spread us out. So for the calls to put Bolden back in, I'm not sure that was the solution. The issue wasn't size or lack thereof. They issue on defense was effort, awareness, and communication.

And on the offensive end, we settled for the first available look a bit too much, and had an inordinate run of bad luck in terms of makes on open shots. The combination was a huge run at an awful time.

[uh_no]

Kennard answers against State's zone with a 3. Up 1. Then Duke calls a timeout. I assume the reason is to give our guys a rest and to get Jefferson back into the game. But State draws up a nice set, which results in an uncontested alley-oop for Abu as Allen doesn't see the Rowan screen for Abu and instead decides to help on a potential Smith drive that never happens. Abu rolls uncontested to the rim off the screen, easy alley oop. Down 1.


The fact that this happened was one of the biggest things I shook my head at in game. If I recall, amile was NOT in the game coming out of the four minute timeout. Almost immediately after, however, he was at the scorers table waiting to check in. I saw that and thought "why the heck wasn't he in the game coming out of the timeout?" He's our on court leader, the most senior member of the team, he's gotta be on the floor in that situation. Instead, we were unfortunate in that there was no stoppage, and he sat there for 1min+ while we lost a handle on the game. Capel then had to burn that timeout...our last one...to get him back on the floor. Timeout's are a major asset coming down the stretch in a close game, and it proved disastrous in the last six seconds.

The counter argument might be that amile is playing <100%, but even if that is the case, the 10 seconds or whatever extra rest before he went to the scorer's table wasn't going to make a difference in fatigue or injury. Amile needs to be on the floor those last 4 minutes.

[KandG]

So for the calls to put Bolden back in, I'm not sure that was the solution. The issue wasn't size or lack thereof. They issue on defense was effort, awareness, and communication.

And on the offensive end, we settled for the first available look a bit too much, and had an inordinate run of bad luck in terms of makes on open shots. The combination was a huge run at an awful time.

Excellent post. I really felt State punished us quickly for a few mistakes and things snowballed. And the "first available look" shots were fine for what they were, but I felt like three of them were too many (standstill Matt three, Grayson three, Jayson three).

[kAzE]

Last night's game felt a lot like this one:

http://www.espn.com/ncb/recap/_/gameId/400839773

. . . except we were on the other side of it this time.

[Chard]

Worth noting that all of this happened with State playing small ball. They rotated Kapita and Abu at the 5, and had four guards/wings (Smith, Johnson, Henderson, and Rowan) and spread us out. So for the calls to put Bolden back in, I'm not sure that was the solution. The issue wasn't size or lack thereof. They issue on defense was effort, awareness, and communication.

And on the offensive end, we settled for the first available look a bit too much, and had an inordinate run of bad luck in terms of makes on open shots. The combination was a huge run at an awful time.

Hmm, but going small wasn't the answer either. With Bolden in maybe there is a better chance to score, rebound or defend? Maybe one of those first look shots turn into a put back. I don't think Bolden would have lacked effort, awareness or communication.

All hindsight of course. I wish there was more effort to develop offense out of the post.

[DukieInBrasil]

excellent analysis of those 2 critical stretches. Seems to me that it comes down to a lack of consistency. Pick a category: effort, focus, intensity, rebounding, defense, offense; any and or all of those categories go from A+ to F during a single game, often multiple times per category. This team just baffles me. I do know one thing though: none of effort, focus, intensity or offense were consistent problems prior to Tatum returning from injury. To be fair, Bolden returned at the same time. Additionally, there has been far too much discontinuity both before and after the Freshmen's return for any team to thrive.

[CDu]

Hmm, but going small wasn't the answer either. With Bolden in maybe there is a better chance to score, rebound or defend? Maybe one of those first look shots turn into a put back. I don't think Bolden would have lacked effort, awareness or communication.

All hindsight of course. I wish there was more effort to develop offense out of the post.

Bolden is our worst rebounding big and our least effective offensive big amongst the 4 options (Jefferson, Giles, Tatum, Bolden). So I'm not sure why he would have been more likely to get rebounds or points. That just hasn't been the strength of his game to this point.

He certainly IS good at hedging on ball screens on defense. But that wasn't the problem during either of those stretches. The defensive failures were largely away from the ball in secondary screen action and help defense. Those aren't the areas in which Bolden has shown himself to be noteworthy. And many of the breakdowns were the fault of the guards, not the big.

I mean, is it possible that Bolden would have helped? Sure. Things couldn't have gone much worse. But nothing inherently screams that the lack of Bolden on the floor was the problem in those stretches.

[Devils Librarian]

Last night's game felt a lot like this one:

http://www.espn.com/ncb/recap/_/gameId/400839773

. . . except we were on the other side of it this time.



I felt the same way. Each time we failed to put them away I kept thinking about last year's win in the Dean Dome.

[jv001]

So, first I must caveat the below by saying that the loss last night was a huge disappointment. It was a game we desperately needed in the ACC race. Losing it on the heels of a huge second half against Miami is very deflating. No other way to say it.

That being said, I think it's important to analyze what went wrong in this game. How did we seemingly control the game for large stretches only to find a way to lose? In this case, I think we can break it down into two glaring stretches: one very short, one slightly longer.

Final 36.6 seconds of the first half. We are up 11, and pushing the lead out and seemingly imposing our will. Our best shooter (Kennard) is on the FT line. Kennard hits the first, to push the lead to 12. But he uncharacteristically misses the second. It was close, but ultimately rattled out barely. No big deal, right? State still had to go ~90 feet to score, and we should have had guys back. Well, Abu got the ball to Smith at our free throw line. Smith sprinted up the right side of the court, with Jones cutting him off and forcing him to the corner.

Unfortunately, the wheels come off from there. Smith squares up, then makes a nice crossover to get into the lane. Ideally, Jones prevents that, but Smith is an NBA-level talent and you can't stay in front of him every time. Especially when you have to respect his outside shot. So Smith gets by Jones and into the lane. No problem right? We have Jefferson and Giles there to help. Well, neither guy does a good job of helping. Giles stays too high near his man (Kapita) at the free throw line and never gets down to help. Gotta prefer Kapita shooting a 15 foot jumper there. Giles needs to slide over and cut off the path to the rim. Jefferson could have also helped, and eventually did slide over. But he also doesn't get there in time. And then he jumps out of Smith's way when Smith goes up for the layup. I'll chalk that up to miscommunication, but primarily that's on Giles for not helping. Smith makes an acrobatic layup, and the officials call a foul that I didn't see (must have been Jones slightly bumping Smith with the body from behind). So the 12 point lead is down to 9 in just 9.6 seconds.

But we now have time to take the last shot, right? Going into the half with at least a 9-point lead is still a great half. Well... Jones gets the ball and receives a ball screen to the middle. He finds a back-cutting Allen with about 7 seconds left. But the officials call him for a travel. So with 6.4 seconds left, now 9 points is our best case scenario for a halftime lead. And Smith made an NBA three with a hand in his face at the buzzer to end the half. What could have been a 10+ point lead turned into 6, with the momentum in State's hands.

Ultimately, not a ton of mistakes. Just one bad defensive possession, one tough turnover, and a pair of great plays by Smith.

Up 9 with 6:35 left. After allowing State to come back and even take the lead in the second half, we had once again established a comfy 9 point lead with 6:35 left. State was reeling. We felt good. They called time out. On the ensuing possession, State gets a wide open 3 for Henderson. Thankfully, one of their best shooters missed an incredibly high-percentage shot. But unfortunately Allen didn't box out Rowan, and neither Jefferson nor Tatum (both on the left side of the floor near the lane) sought him out either. Rowan and Allen jump for it, and Rowan is only able to tip it away from Allen. Unfortunately, the lack of boxing out continued. Jefferson didn't box out Kapita at all. And the batted ball by Rowan went to Kapita. And Jefferson (who reacted late to the batted ball) didn't get in position to prevent the easy layup for Kapita. This can be summarized by the failure of our defenders to box out. Twice. Now up 7.

On offense, we get the ball to Tatum on the elbow. He makes a nice move and gets a finger roll opportunity from 2 feet out. It, unfortunately misses. It's okay, that happens. But for some reason, Tatum falls down and takes forever to get up. State punishes us with a 5-on-4, which results in a foul on Kapita at the rim. Thankfully he missed the layup, but hit both free throws. Up 5.

Next possession, State goes zone, and Allen hits a wide open 18 footer. On the other end, we get a stop as Kapita fouls out going over the back on a missed contested runner by Smith. Yay, a minor win for us! Up 7.

Next possession, State again goes zone. Tatum goes baseline and misses a driving layup. Tough angle, but one we could have used. State gets the rebound, rushes up court, and misses a layup. Push. Up 7.

We come down, and Allen gets a WIDE open corner 3. He misses it, and Kennard is called for a foul trying to box out Smith. At least he tried to box out. Smith makes both. Tough swing there for us. Up 5.

We come down, State stays in zone, Jones gets a WIDE (I mean, as wide as it gets) open 3. He steps into it from about 23 feet, but misses. State gets the rebound. Smith brings it up semi-slow, but our bigs (Giles and Tatum) don't get back. The result is effectively a full-court iso for Smith on Jones. Smith is going to win that battle more often than not. And he did, with a really nice spin move (right past a stationary and non-helpful Tatum) for a layup. Up 3.

Kennard gets the ball and drives into the lane. He picks up his dribble about 10 feet from the basket with Abu on him. Bad decision. He tries to fake Abu out, but doesn't get separation. He then rushes a pass to the perimeter, but misses Tatum and the ball goes out of bounds. That brings us to the under-4 time out. On the ensuing possession, our perimeter defense is actually okay. Giles hedges solidly, pushes Smith all the way to the sideline. But Tatum fails in his responsibility of helping on Giles' man, leaving Abu under the basket. Smith whips a brilliant, 30-foot wraparound pass just past a late, lunging Tatum. Abu catches and dunks. Up just 1. In 3 minutes it has been a 10-2 run for State.

Next possession, we get a post up for Giles on Rowan. Big mismatch advantage. It's the type of thing we'd love to see earlier in the game or half. But with us in the 1-and-1, Rowan fouls before the shot. Giles misses the front end. State pushes it up, and Smith hits a 26 foot 3 semi-contested (would have been a heavily contested normal 3. Down 2.

Kennard answers against State's zone with a 3. Up 1. Then Duke calls a timeout. I assume the reason is to give our guys a rest and to get Jefferson back into the game. But State draws up a nice set, which results in an uncontested alley-oop for Abu as Allen doesn't see the Rowan screen for Abu and instead decides to help on a potential Smith drive that never happens. Abu rolls uncontested to the rim off the screen, easy alley oop. Down 1.

We get a wide open 3 for Kennard, who misses short. State rebounds. Rowan gets an open look for a 3 from straight on, and makes. Down 4.

Allen fakes a pass and gets a quick look from about 26 feet. He misses long, State rebounds. Smith goes around a double screen, Kennard doesn't see that his man has screened Jefferson whose man is screening the ball, and fails to pick up Smith, who scores a driving layup. Down 6.

That is basically the ball game. Sure, we scrambled late and had a chance to tie or win on a last-second play. But in a 5-minute span we got outscored 20-5 to go from a 9-point lead to a 6-point deficit.

Worth noting that all of this happened with State playing small ball. They rotated Kapita and Abu at the 5, and had four guards/wings (Smith, Johnson, Henderson, and Rowan) and spread us out. So for the calls to put Bolden back in, I'm not sure that was the solution. The issue wasn't size or lack thereof. They issue on defense was effort, awareness, and communication.

And on the offensive end, we settled for the first available look a bit too much, and had an inordinate run of bad luck in terms of makes on open shots. The combination was a huge run at an awful time.

A great recap. Basically some bad missed assignments on defense and some wide open shots missed on the offensive end. NEXT PLAY! GODUKE!

[killerleft]

Hmm, but going small wasn't the answer either. With Bolden in maybe there is a better chance to score, rebound or defend? Maybe one of those first look shots turn into a put back. I don't think Bolden would have lacked effort, awareness or communication.

All hindsight of course. I wish there was more effort to develop offense out of the post.

Coach P could help. Farm equipment is her supposed specialty!:o

[Newton_14]

Many props to CDu here as this is a really outstanding analysis. Over the years, these type losses (games to inferior teams we should have blown out) are the ones that get under my skin. So I waited 24 hours to post. :)


The end of the half was a killer. That let a fragile team back into the game and gave them renewed life and confidence. I say this often, but how you close out a half matters. It just does. A FSU home game, 2012. Up 9 after a 3 from Michael Snaer of FSU with just a few seconds left in the half. Rivers takes a 3 at the half-time buzzer, and it bounces up near the top of the backboard, then drops in. Crowd and team goes nuts until the refs contend it hit the shot clock (it didn't) and waive it off. Big momentum killer. FSU hangs around, and beat us on a long buzzer beating 3 by again, Michael Snaer. That's just one example of many. I felt we were in trouble last night with how the half ended.

Not finishing them, and allowing them to catch up between TV TO 1 and 10 mins left, was mainly about missing wide open shots including chippies.

The melt down at the end, similar but I want rehash as the OP did a great job on detailing what happened.

Looking at the bigger picture on the things that led to what happened last night, it just goes right back to injuries to players and coaches, suspension of Grayson, disrupting this team since Day 1. That more than anything has led to no chemistry, no identity, no continuity, nothing to build on. Last night was only the 3rd time I believe, that we have had our top 8 players (yet still no Coach K). Secondly, not having a natural PG. This issue has been made much worse by reason 1 above. Had the top 8 guys and Coach K been available since Day 1, they possibly/likely could have worked out a lot of different things to compensate for that. But it's just not the situation we find ourselves in. Lastly on this game, Amile probably should not have played. He had to be less than 50% health wise last night and it showed. He could not move well or jump. The one play CDu mentioned where Amile rotated over to Smith but was late is a good example. Amile if healthy, either blocks that shot or draws a charge.

I don't think it is time to throw in the towel just yet though. Giles and Bolden are getting better, and with K back at the helm I still believe this team can experience growth and make a run. No guarantees at all of that but it is not out of the question yet.

[UrinalCake]

The other big turning point IMO was after Kapita got the tech for hanging on the rim. They were making a run and had gotten the dunk to cut the lead to 2, but the T gave us a foul shot plus possession. We had an opportunity to thwart their run, steal some momentum back and push the lead back to potentially 5 or 6. Instead Tatum bricks the free throw, Frank commits an egregious turnover where he essentially hands the ball right to Smith in the backcourt, State runs down the court and drills a three to retake the lead. Potential seven point swing. That along with the sequence at the end of the first half that Cdu described were moments where a play or two really swung the game. Much like how in the Miami game, Matt's strip-steal followed by a three completely turned that game. It was the equivalent of a pick-six in football, got the crowd to come alive and opened the floodgates.

[Neals384]

Tatum played the entire 2nd half. It seems likely that fatigue contributed to poor decision making, missed layups, lackluster defense at times, and the final TO.

[devilsince1977]

As far as the criticism of the use of the time out with 2 1/2 minutes to go. It would have been used long before the last possession
. Any coach would have used it to set up the defense after a made shot.

[gofurman]

Hmm, but going small wasn't the answer either. With Bolden in maybe there is a better chance to score, rebound or defend? Maybe one of those first look shots turn into a put back. I don't think Bolden would have lacked effort, awareness or communication.

All hindsight of course. I wish there was more effort to develop offense out of the post.

Exactly. See my post on Amile hanging a 24/15 on top 25 Florida !!!!! He is our most experienced guy playing at an All America level !!

I get he may have been gimpy last night but it's like we abandoned his awesome crafty moves soon after Florida - whom he demolished on the interior. We have Tons of perimeter options ... Amile is the one reliable interior scoring guy ..or he was ... But we have hardly used him - andI mean pre-injury. It makes no sense. It's always better to offer inside and outside threats than just outside threats. At least feed it to him. Maybe the D collapses opening up threes

[Chard]

Bolden is our worst rebounding big and our least effective offensive big amongst the 4 options (Jefferson, Giles, Tatum, Bolden). So I'm not sure why he would have been more likely to get rebounds or points. That just hasn't been the strength of his game to this point.

He certainly IS good at hedging on ball screens on defense. But that wasn't the problem during either of those stretches. The defensive failures were largely away from the ball in secondary screen action and help defense. Those aren't the areas in which Bolden has shown himself to be noteworthy. And many of the breakdowns were the fault of the guards, not the big.

I mean, is it possible that Bolden would have helped? Sure. Things couldn't have gone much worse. But nothing inherently screams that the lack of Bolden on the floor was the problem in those stretches.

I understand your reasoning and the numbers behind it. However, doesn't that include stats from just-back-from-injury Bolden? Has he not progressed since getting back in the rotation? Do his stats from the first few games back match stats from the last few games?

If we rely on the stats only, should Bolden ever get meaningful playtime? I tend to think that in that end of game situation on Monday night, he could have made a difference simply by what I was seeing that game. Bolden came out and was active in the post at the beginning of the game. He didn't convert but what I saw was a confident player with an aggressive mindset. It is too bad that there wasn't much effort to establish the post after that. I think he could have helped at the end. State threw some curves at Duke at the end and converted three straight possessions. Couldn't Duke have made an adjustment on offense and tried going back to the post for high percentage shots and/or kick outs? Lack of time outs could have prevented that.

Again, all hindsight and theory crafting. I'm not saying your wrong in your analysis. Just have a different opinion. I've slept since then and I could be way off base.

[CDu]

I understand your reasoning and the numbers behind it. However, doesn't that include stats from just-back-from-injury Bolden? Has he not progressed since getting back in the rotation? Do his stats from the first few games back match stats from the last few games?

Yes, Bolden's rebounding rate is still the lowest of the bigs. Even in the last few games in which he has been more healthy. And remember: the "not healthy" thing also applies equally to Tatum (they came back together) and moreso to Giles (he came back later). Yet both are above Bolden in rebound %. In fact, Bolden's rebound rate has trending slightly downward since his return. In the five games in which he got at least 10 minutes:

First two such games: 12.5 mpg, 3 rpg
Middle game: 15 minutes, 4 rebounds
Last two games: 20.5 mpg, 3.5 rpg


If we rely on the stats only, should Bolden ever get meaningful playtime?

Sure. When a team plays two bigs, having Bolden as one of the bigs is still effective, as he is good at hedging on screens. When a team plays smaller and spreads you out, I'm not sure he makes as much sense.



I tend to think that in that end of game situation on Monday night, he could have made a difference simply by what I was seeing that game. Bolden came out and was active in the post at the beginning of the game. He didn't convert but what I saw was a confident player with an aggressive mindset. It is too bad that there wasn't much effort to establish the post after that. I think he could have helped at the end.

Bolden is our least efficient post option. He's also our least efficient scoring option overall (among the top 8). He's big, and in theory SHOULD be a capable post scorer. But to this point in his career, he hasn't shown that skill set. Desire/willingness? Yes. Production? No.


State threw some curves at Duke at the end and converted three straight possessions. Couldn't Duke have made an adjustment on offense and tried going back to the post for high percentage shots and/or kick outs? Lack of time outs could have prevented that.

Lack of timeouts played into it. But there is also the fact that our post options (Giles, Bolden, and a seemingly-still-injured Jefferson) are among our least efficient offensive players. They are also our worst free throw shooters, which would have been a problem given that we were in the bonus. We went to Giles once in the post. He got fouled, and missed the front end of a 1-and-1.

We've trusted our guards/wings to score all season. In the first half, they did so very efficiently. They just stopped making shots. Perhaps it was fatigue. But at that point in the game, I don't think going to post was the right strategy at the time. We had just built the lead back up on the backs of our guards/wings scoring. They just suddenly all went cold at a bad time.


Again, all hindsight and theory crafting. I'm not saying your wrong in your analysis. Just have a different opinion. I've slept since then and I could be way off base.

As I said, anything is possible. It is possible that going with Bolden late would have made a difference. It is easy to suggest that in hindsight. But nothing other than "things didn't work out" suggests that going with Bolden would have fixed things. Maybe it would have. But there really doesn't seem to be a clear evidence-based rationale as to why it would have worked.

And again, it isn't like we got bad looks. Tatum missed multiple open layups. Kennard, Jones, and Allen each missed at least one wide open 3. Those are good shots. They just didn't go in.

[Chard]

Yes, Bolden's rebounding rate is still the lowest of the bigs. Even in the last few games in which he has been more healthy. And remember: the "not healthy" thing also applies equally to Tatum (they came back together) and moreso to Giles (he came back later). Yet both are above Bolden in rebound %. In fact, Bolden's rebound rate has trending slightly downward since his return. In the five games in which he got at least 10 minutes:

First two such games: 12.5 mpg, 3 rpg
Middle game: 15 minutes, 4 rebounds
Last two games: 20.5 mpg, 3.5 rpg



Sure. When a team plays two bigs, having Bolden as one of the bigs is still effective, as he is good at hedging on screens. When a team plays smaller and spreads you out, I'm not sure he makes as much sense.




Bolden is our least efficient post option. He's also our least efficient scoring option overall (among the top 8). He's big, and in theory SHOULD be a capable post scorer. But to this point in his career, he hasn't shown that skill set. Desire/willingness? Yes. Production? No.





Thanks for the clarity. That shines new light.

[ncexnyc]

Very nice post and I think you could view the near comeback BC made in a similar fashion. I seem to recall we had several WIDE open shots when they were attempting their comeback that we missed, along with some sketchy defense. It all comes down to mental toughness and the lack of a leader on the offensive end who can put the team on his back and get you a much needed basket to stem the bleeding.

[azzefkram]

Yes, Bolden's rebounding rate is still the lowest of the bigs. Even in the last few games in which he has been more healthy. And remember: the "not healthy" thing also applies equally to Tatum (they came back together) and moreso to Giles (he came back later). Yet both are above Bolden in rebound %. In fact, Bolden's rebound rate has trending slightly downward since his return. In the five games in which he got at least 10 minutes:

First two such games: 12.5 mpg, 3 rpg
Middle game: 15 minutes, 4 rebounds
Last two games: 20.5 mpg, 3.5 rpg



I know what the stats say but we are only talking about 100 odd minutes spread across 12 appearances. Is there an amount of time when these stats normalize? I know in baseball it is surprising how many instances have to occur before the stats give a good picture of what is going on. Add in the fact that a portion of those minutes were at less than full strength and maybe we are not getting a clear picture.

[CDu]

I know what the stats say but we are only talking about 100 odd minutes spread across 12 appearances. Is there an amount of time when these stats normalize? I know in baseball it is surprising how many instances have to occur before the stats give a good picture of what is going on. Add in the fact that a portion of those minutes were at less than full strength and maybe we are not getting a clear picture.

I don't know about when things normalize. But he has pretty consistently been the worst rebounder of the group. Giles, by comparison, has been consistently great at getting rebounds. Bolden has only three games this year better than Giles' worst in terms of rebound rate. And one of those three was against a highly-overmatched Maine squad.

There may still be some variability. But I would feel quite confident in saying Bolden will have the worst rebounding rate of our available bigs (now that Jeter is out). And he is WAAAAY behind Giles and Jefferson in rebound rate.

[UrinalCake]

I think part of why Bolden is so bad at rebounding is that we're constantly having him hedge out at the three point line. Opposing teams know how easy it is to draw our bigs out of the lane, so they do it on every possession. Hard to grab boards when you're staying in front of the point guard 30 feet from the basket and then scrambling to get back to your man.

[SilkyJ]

I don't know about when things normalize. But he has pretty consistently been the worst rebounder of the group. Giles, by comparison, has been consistently great at getting rebounds. Bolden has only three games this year better than Giles' worst in terms of rebound rate. And one of those three was against a highly-overmatched Maine squad.

There may still be some variability. But I would feel quite confident in saying Bolden will have the worst rebounding rate of our available bigs (now that Jeter is out). And he is WAAAAY behind Giles and Jefferson in rebound rate.


Agree with CDu here. Giles' and Jefferson's rebounding rates have been really solid and Bolden's not so much. Bolden sparked us in that one half vs Miami, but its clear that Giles and Jefferson will be our most effective bigs and our best post defenders (and I include rebounding in defense). Giles has been on an almost Zoubekian like rebounding rate--he is averaging 15.7reb/40 and 6.3 o-reb/40. In 2010, when Zoubek was the best offensive rebounder and one of the if not the best overall rebounders in the country (by rebounding rate) he averaged 16.6 reb/40 and 7.7 o-reb/40.

That said rebounding isn't really our problem, its pick and roll defense and right now no one seems to know how to play that. For the freshman, it's just time and experience.

Still, its clear that giles is our most talented and athletic big man, and I don't understand why he isn't playing more. After getting 24 mpg and showing he's healthy and in decent shape against BC, his minutes have really trailed off. He only played a combined 22 minutes in the last 2 games--WHY?! This kid was the #1 overall recruit, we have ~10 games left in the season and we aren't getting far without Giles reaching his potential. I don't understand why this kid isn't playing 25mpg right now. He needs the reps to get back into shape, shake off the rust, and help us become a dominant force by March.

Limiting his minutes early in the season made sense for the long run. Limiting them right now is no longer in our long-term best interest. He needs to learn how to play, particularly on defense. He also needs to work on his alarming 38% FT%...albeit a small sample size.