Predict Duke's Final ACC Regular Season Record

[Troublemaker]

Since this has become a topic of discussion, we might as well formalize with a poll. You can choose to only vote in the poll, or you can add details to your prediction in a post.

We are playing for fun... AND massive pride. Predict the record correctly, and you will get showered with praise.

Duke is now 3-4 in the ACC after 7 games. What will our final record be? Here is the rest of our schedule:

8. @Wake
9. @Notre Dame
10. Pitt
11. UNC
12. Clemson
13. @UVA
14. Wake
15. @Syracuse
16. @Miami
17. FSU
18. @UNC

[gofurman]

O
Since this has become a topic of discussion, we might as well formalize with a poll. You can choose to only vote in the poll, or you can add details to your prediction in a post.

We are playing for fun... AND massive pride. Predict the record correctly, and you will get showered with praise.

Duke is now 3-4 in the ACC after 7 games. What will our final record be? Here is the rest of our schedule:

8. @Wake
9. @Notre Dame
10. Pitt
11. UNC
12. Clemson
13. @UVA
14. Wake
15. @Syracuse
16. @Miami
17. FSU
18. @UNC

Troublemaker, I was thinking about this too watching that game v State. Recall all the posts of 12-6 etc just last week? I almost posted this very same topic a few minutes ago. I posted last week I was HOPING for 10-8. I would be elated w 10-8 if we looked good going into the tourney


A) We have yet to win a road game. 0-3. That lends itself to a 9-9 record right there. Drop a game or three at home. Hope to pick up a game or two on the road.

B) we are screwed by the schedule makers - UNC has TWO road games vs ranked opponents. And that assumes We are ranked !!!! We have FIVE games on road vs ranked opponents.

I'll hope for 9-9.

Wins 2 of the three -at Wake, Syracuse and Miami. Win all of these - Home v Pitt and Clemson and Wake and FSU. 9-9. Play well in March. Learn to play D

[elvis14]

B) we are screwed by the schedule makers - UNC has TWO road games vs ranked opponents. And that assumes We are ranked !!!! We have FIVE games on road vs ranked opponents.

UNC? We just lost to State at home, have a losing record in the ACC and UNCheat is at the top of the ACC at 6-1. We have nothing to do with them this season other than having games against them so why compare us to them. We need to be talking about Wake, GaTech, and the Big East wannabe Syracuse, sadly those are teams we are trying to beat out.

[jipops]

Since this has become a topic of discussion, we might as well formalize with a poll. You can choose to only vote in the poll, or you can add details to your prediction in a post.

We are playing for fun... AND massive pride. Predict the record correctly, and you will get showered with praise.

Duke is now 3-4 in the ACC after 7 games. What will our final record be? Here is the rest of our schedule:

8. @Wake L
9. @Notre Dame L
10. Pitt W
11. UNC L
12. Clemson W
13. @UVA L
14. Wake W
15. @Syracuse W
16. @Miami L
17. FSU W
18. @UNC L



With predictions...

[JeffNof]

We are playing for fun... AND massive pride. Predict the record correctly, and you will get showered with praise.

Duke is now 3-4 in the ACC after 7 games. What will our final record be? Here is the rest of our schedule:

8. @Wake (L)
9. @Notre Dame (L)
10. Pitt (W)
11. UNC (L)
12. Clemson (W)
13. @UVA (L)
14. Wake (W)
15. @Syracuse (W)
16. @Miami (L)
17. FSU (L)
18. @UNC (L)

7-11 at best. Last year was difficult to watch due to lack of talent and depth but this team is unexplainable.

[JNort]

8. @Wake (W)
9. @Notre Dame (W)
10. Pitt (W)
11. UNC (W)
12. Clemson (W)
13. @UVA (L)
14. Wake (W)
15. @Syracuse (W)
16. @Miami (W)
17. FSU (W)
18. @UNC (L)

[kAzE]

Presuming relative health the rest of the way (probably wishful thinking), I think we lose @ Notre Dame, @ Virginia, and @ UNC, and win the rest of our games. 11-7.

[CDu]

Presuming relative health the rest of the way (probably wishful thinking), I think we lose @ Notre Dame, @ Virginia, and @ UNC, and win the rest of our games. 11-7.

This where I went as well. I could also be convinced of a 10-8 or 9-9, or 12-6. I felt we were a 12-6 or 13-5 team prior to last night. I still think we get there.

The hard part of this is that I don't think we are a complete team yet. I was hopeful that we'd get through these three games with wins as we continue to mesh. Losing this one puts more pressure on us to mesh quicker and avoid more losses in the games ahead.

[jv001]

If we can get the guys to buy into playing good team defense, I think the wins will come. That should bring the confidence the players need. A road win over a pretty good Wake team may get them started and who knows what might happen then. GoDuke!

One other thing, we need a healthy Amile. We've seen how poorly we play without him at 100%. Get well Amile, Chase and Coach K. GoDuke!

[Devils Librarian]

UNC? We just lost to State at home, have a losing record in the ACC and UNCheat is at the top of the ACC at 6-1. We have nothing to do with them this season other than having games against them so why compare us to them. We need to be talking about Wake, GaTech, and the Big East wannabe Syracuse, sadly those are teams we are trying to beat out.

I hate this, but I think that you are right. I have seen nothing from our guys this season that tell me they are ready to take on the pressure of a rivalry game. I know that in years past we have had inferior teams that beat more talented UNC-CH teams, and more talented Duke teams have lost to inferior UNC-CH teams. Perhaps we will get a gutsy "back-against-the-wall" type performance and pull an upset like last year in the Dean Dome, but as of right now I have counted both UNC-CH games as an L.

[dahntaysdawg]

Since this has become a topic of discussion, we might as well formalize with a poll. You can choose to only vote in the poll, or you can add details to your prediction in a post.

We are playing for fun... AND massive pride. Predict the record correctly, and you will get showered with praise.

Duke is now 3-4 in the ACC after 7 games. What will our final record be? Here is the rest of our schedule:

8. @Wake
9. @Notre Dame
10. Pitt
11. UNC
12. Clemson
13. @UVA
14. Wake
15. @Syracuse
16. @Miami
17. FSU
18. @UNC

The light comes on...

8. @Wake - W (jumping the road game hurdle gives us positive momentum)
9. @Notre Dame - W (breaking the Brey curse gives us even more momentum)
10. Pitt - W
11. UNC - W
12. Clemson - W
13. @UVA - L (close loss)
14. Wake - W
15. @Syracuse - W
16. @Miami - W
17. FSU - W (Revenge game, Giles has a big game here)
18. @UNC - W

Final record 13 - 5.

[azzefkram]

We are going to win out. Embrace the optimism.

[NM Duke Fan]

Of course, with the struggles of this season, for some of us embracing the optimism means going with a 9-9 prediction :)

[BandAlum83]

Wins to get to 10:

Wake twice
Pitt
Clemson
Syracuse
UNC @ home
@Miami.

[BandAlum83]

My heart says we win out!

[rsvman]

Wins to get to 10:

Wake twice
Pitt
Clemson
Syracuse
UNC @ home
@Miami.

This. I chose 10-8 and picked wins for the exact same games.

[wsb3]

I am going to stick with my 10-8.. Hoping that this team puts together a little streak.

[Troublemaker]

I'm somewhat surprised that the predictions have formed a normal distribution around 10-8.

I would've guessed we would see a bimodal distribution, with one "pessimistic" hump and one "optimistic" hump. A normal distribution means (I think) most everyone took their predictions seriously.

In any case, 12-6 is the correct answer.

[Spanarkel]

I'm somewhat surprised that the predictions have formed a normal distribution around 10-8.

I would've guessed we would see a bimodal distribution, with one "pessimistic" hump and one "optimistic" hump. A normal distribution means (I think) most everyone took their predictions seriously.

In any case, 12-6 is the correct answer.


Even in trying to be realistically optimistic(as one poster suggested in another thread), and assuming Coach K. returns for the 2/4 game vs. Pitt(which would be 4 weeks after his surgery on 1/6), I cannot come up with any better than 8-10(ouch!). This team hasn't, as Coach K is fond of saying in various forms, "learned what it takes to win," and has been hamstrung by multiple injuries(I am not saying that Coach K has said this about this squad.) If this team can indeed learn what it takes to win, which would be the medical student's equivalent of learning anatomy in 6 weeks, I will be glad to have been way off in the prediction.

[cbarry]

I agree with you, for the most part. I think we can pull of a road win at either Wake or UVA, so I have us at 8-10. I am bewildered by the optimism of some! I would like to see us win out as much as anyone, but I think we also need to be realistic in our expectations.

Hopefully people will remember that what I PREDICT is not what I WANT to happen, just an educated opinion.

A lot will depend on when Coach K comes back.... Get well soon Coach!



We are playing for fun... AND massive pride. Predict the record correctly, and you will get showered with praise.

Duke is now 3-4 in the ACC after 7 games. What will our final record be? Here is the rest of our schedule:

8. @Wake (L)
9. @Notre Dame (L)
10. Pitt (W)
11. UNC (L)
12. Clemson (W)
13. @UVA (L)
14. Wake (W)
15. @Syracuse (W)
16. @Miami (L)
17. FSU (L)
18. @UNC (L)

7-11 at best. Last year was difficult to watch due to lack of talent and depth but this team is unexplainable.

[NM Duke Fan]

Even in trying to be realistically optimistic(as one poster suggested in another thread), and assuming Coach K. returns for the 2/4 game vs. Pitt(which would be 4 weeks after his surgery on 1/6), I cannot come up with any better than 8-10(ouch!). This team hasn't, as Coach K is fond of saying in various forms, "learned what it takes to win," and has been hamstrung by multiple injuries(I am not saying that Coach K has said this about this squad.) If this team can indeed learn what it takes to win, which would be the medical student's equivalent of learning anatomy in 6 weeks, I will be glad to have been way off in the prediction.

I remain an optimist and will stick with my 9-9 prediction!

[elvis14]

I remain an optimist and will stick with my 9-9 prediction!

When I made a 9-9 prediction, I considered that being optimistic and borderline generous.

[NSDukeFan]

When I made a 9-9 prediction, I considered that being optimistic and borderline generous.

I wonder what my dilemma between 11-7 and 12-6 would be considered?

[Spanarkel]

I wonder what my dilemma between 11-7 and 12-6 would be considered?

Supergrace

[fuse]

Poll is closed. Wonder if a similar poll were taken if we'd see a big swing towards 6-12.

[arnie]

Poll is closed. Wonder if a similar poll were taken if we'd see a big swing towards 6-12.

Or possibly worse if K doesn't come back.

[arnie]

Or possibly worse if K doesn't come back.
Another premature halftime comment

[Troublemaker]

Gotta say, guys. Not looking great for your prediction:

http://i.imgur.com/S2de1KA.png

[CDu]

We are now one loss out of the conference lead.

[CDu]

I would guess that 60+% of posters are feeling not so great about their predictions right now.

Heck, I am not even feeling all that great about my 11-7 pick. I was torn between 12-6 and 11-7, but went with 11-7 after the State loss. Now, ann 11-7 finish would feel a bit disappointing.

This team was dealing with a LOT of stuff in early/mid-January. Freshmen getting their first taste of road games. Allen's suspension. Coach K's surgery. Jefferson's injury. There was - to me - clearly a LOT of upside in the team, and the 3-4 mark was - to me - obviously the low point. The only question for me was how quickly we would start to figure things out. They appear to have done so a game or two quicker than I had expected.

[Bob Green]

I would guess that 60+% of posters are feeling not so great about their predictions right now.

My 10-8 prediction is looking pretty silly these days. Sometimes it is nice to be wrong.

[BandAlum83]

My 10-8 prediction is looking pretty silly these days. Sometimes it is nice to be wrong.

Here's to hoping we were both not only wrong, but silly-wrong!

As of now, we've only won one game I wasn't expecting: @ND. Win two more unexpected, hold on the others, and we get into "10-8 was a silly prediction" territory.

@UVA will be a very sweet win. :)

[NSDukeFan]

I would guess that 60+% of posters are feeling not so great about their predictions right now.

Heck, I am not even feeling all that great about my 11-7 pick. I was torn between 12-6 and 11-7, but went with 11-7 after the State loss. Now, ann 11-7 finish would feel a bit disappointing.

This team was dealing with a LOT of stuff in early/mid-January. Freshmen getting their first taste of road games. Allen's suspension. Coach K's surgery. Jefferson's injury. There was - to me - clearly a LOT of upside in the team, and the 3-4 mark was - to me - obviously the low point. The only question for me was how quickly we would start to figure things out. They appear to have done so a game or two quicker than I had expected.

I was debating the same and I am hoping both will end up being too pessimistic.

[fuse]

Winning 3 out of the last six or better would be a strong showing.
Can we do better? Sure.

FSU really took us out of our rhythm in Tallahassee.
Not overlooking Wake at home, important.
@Syracuse, @UVa, @Miami tough road games.

@Carolina, nuff said.

Going to be a fun February to be a Duke fan.

Let's Go Duke!

[Dukehky]

FSU and Louisville's schedules are freaking jokes.

[CDu]

Winning 3 out of the last six or better would be a strong showing.
Can we do better? Sure.

FSU really took us out of our rhythm in Tallahassee.
Not overlooking Wake at home, important.
@Syracuse, @UVa, @Miami tough road games.

@Carolina, nuff said.

Going to be a fun February to be a Duke fan.

Let's Go Duke!

We will be favored in 3 or 4 of the 6: Wake, FSU, @Cuse, and maybe @Miami. Obviously UVa and UNC will be favored. But I would call a 3-3 finish at best a push, and to me a bit of a disappointment.

[arnie]

We will be favored in 3 or 4 of the 6: Wake, FSU, @Cuse, and maybe @Miami. Obviously UVa and UNC will be favored. But I would call a 3-3 finish at best a push, and to me a bit of a disappointment.

I think 3-3 finish is realistic with 4 on the road and all games against NCAA tourney contenders. 5-1 might win the ACC reg. season. Going to be fun.

[Troublemaker]

Ahhhhhhhhhh..... see ya!

With tonight's win, the 8-10ers have been eliminated from this competition, just as the 7-11ers before them above.

http://i.imgur.com/0HOjSTQ.png

(Everyone can handle some light ribbing, I hope! As a 12-6er, my time is coming, too.)

[JasonEvans]

If azzefkram, CameronBlue, Edouble, Fish80, richardjackson199 are right (14-4), those folks better get some major sporks from the rest of us!!

[elvis14]

I was a 9-9'er. I'll soon be eliminated. Couldn't be happier that I was wrong. Love that we are trending the right direction as we approach March.

[BandAlum83]

We are now 2 games ahead of my 10-8 prediction. Two very big road wins at ND and UVA.

These were big wins on the road in a very tough ACC.

(I did have us beating UNC at home.)

So now, my remaining 2 predicted losses were @ Syr and @UNC.

I'm feeling much beter about those 2 games now :)

[CDu]

There is only one more game on the schedule that we "should" lose: at UNC. We could certainly lose others (any of the remaining games are losable). But I think we're enough better than Miami and Syracuse that we should win there. And we should beat Wake and FSU at home. Again, all of them are losable. But if we end the season with less than 12 wins in conference, that will be a big disappointment given where we are now.

[wsb3]

My 10-8 prediction looks way too conservative & I could not be happier about it..

[jv001]

There is only one more game on the schedule that we "should" lose: at UNC. We could certainly lose others (any of the remaining games are losable). But I think we're enough better than Miami and Syracuse that we should win there. And we should beat Wake and FSU at home. Again, all of them are losable. But if we end the season with less than 12 wins in conference, that will be a big disappointment given where we are now.

Good point, the only way I see Duke losing to the teams you listed is for Amile and Grayson not performing up to par because of their injuries. I know they are playing hard but it's apparent they are not close to 100%. I'm hoping for some wins by big margins and both great to rest a little. GoDuke!

[rsvman]

My 10-8 prediction looks way too conservative & I could not be happier about it..

Same here.

[DukeTrinity11]

Can I revise my 10-8 prediction to 13-5 now? :cool:

[CDu]

Sadly, the five uber-optimists who picked 14-4 were eliminated last night. I doubt they are too concerned, though, as I suspect most were doing it as a protest vote to the idea of the thread at the time. But, that leaves us with just the following:

13-5 (1 poster)
12-6 (9 posters)
11-7 (18 posters)
10-8 (22 posters)

I would venture that the seats of 23 posters are getting hot with regards to this poll. It's looking a lot like a 12-6 or 11-7 finish will be the outcome.

[fuse]

I really wanted to start a thread on expectations vs. reality for the rest of the season.

FSU is built to give us fits, and UNC is playing well.
We could end the season on a 4 game losing streak, at which point a 4 or 5 seed in the NCAAs would be a stretch.

Overall health will determine how far we go.

1-2 wins in the ACC tournament and 1-2 wins in the NCAA feels about right given the current challenges.

I still believe this team has what it takes to win it all.
Time is running out, and only time will tell.

[jipops]

I really wanted to start a thread on expectations vs. reality for the rest of the season.

FSU is built to give us fits, and UNC is playing well.
We could end the season on a 4 game losing streak, at which point a 4 or 5 seed in the NCAAs would be a stretch.

Overall health will determine how far we go.

1-2 wins in the ACC tournament and 1-2 wins in the NCAA feels about right given the current challenges.

I still believe this team has what it takes to win it all.
Time is running out, and only time will tell.

Despite FSU being a very good team, I think we actually have a pretty good shot at a W Tuesday night. And that is even without Grayson and Amile. So I think an 11-7 finish is still a very good possibility. 12-6? Nope. We may very well get blown out of the gym next Saturday. But whatever, the most important thing right now is to get healthy.

[duke4ever19]

Can I revise my 10-8 prediction to 13-5 now? :cool:

Sure, wanna put some money on it? ;)

[Turk]

I predict 11-7 and a 5th seed in the ACCT....

[Troublemaker]

Congrats to the winners of this contest, the 11-7ers!

http://i.imgur.com/q8IMOy5.png

You guys did a very good job of not being a prisoner of the moment (i.e. recency bias) but also not going too far in the other direction where it became unrealistic.

As a 12-6er, I want to grumble a bit about Grayson's rolled ankle probably costing Duke a win somewhere in the final few games. But I won't do that ;)

[rsvman]

As a 10-8'er, I'm just happy that I was wrong.

[Doria]

Yeah, there were some pretty dire predictions when this thread was posted. Even though I feel we could've easily won one more (maybe Syracuse?), I'm very pleased with how our regular season turned out, especially relative to the feeling early in the season. It's great to be a Duke fan!

[CDu]

Congrats to the winners of this contest, the 11-7ers!

http://i.imgur.com/q8IMOy5.png

You guys did a very good job of not being a prisoner of the moment (i.e. recency bias) but also not going too far in the other direction where it became unrealistic.

As a 12-6er, I want to grumble a bit about Grayson's rolled ankle probably costing Duke a win somewhere in the final few games. But I won't do that ;)

As an 11-7er, I will do it for you. If Allen doesn't hurt his ankle against Clemson and then hurt it again against UVa, I think we finish 13-5 or 14-4.

[FerryFor50]

As an 11-7er, I will do it for you. If Allen doesn't hurt his ankle against Clemson and then hurt it again against UVa, I think we finish 13-5 or 14-4.

And if Amile stays healthy... ugh

[kAzE]

And if Amile stays healthy... ugh

I believe Amile was already injured at the time this thread went up, but you are right, if Amile and Grayson both stayed healthy, this team could have been 16-2 in the ACC. There's no way we lose 4 of the first 7 ACC games if Amile is close to 100%, and there's no way we lose to Syracuse or Miami with a healthy Grayson.

I predicted 11-7, but we really should have gone 13-5. The Grayson injury really hurt us. Terrible injury luck this year.

[FerryFor50]

I believe Amile was already injured at the time this thread went up, but you are right, if Amile and Grayson both stayed healthy, this team could have been 16-2 in the ACC. There's no way we lose 4 of the first 7 ACC games if Amile is close to 100%, and there's no way we lose to Syracuse or Miami with a healthy Grayson.

I predicted 11-7, but we really should have gone 13-5. The Grayson injury really hurt us. Terrible injury luck this year.

Also, healthy Amile probably helps us win against NCSU. I believe Jefferson was still a bit hindered by his foot issue in that game, despite playing. A fully healthy Amile? Probably a much better result.