Phase IV - 2016-2017 Season (Miami - Unc)

[superdave]

In honor of one peaceful transfer of power, I am humbly accepting the Phase Mantle from NashvilleDevil who wrote Phase III. Phase IV goes from the Miami game tomorrow to the first Unc game on February 9th. In the last phase, we lost three conference road games and won two conference home games for a 2-3 record. We lost senior captain Amile Jefferson and Coach K. There are a lot of things going on around this team.

Health – This team needs Amile Jefferson back to reach its ceiling. We have every reason to believe he will be back soon, hopefully on the early side of this phase. We do not have further details on Coach K’s absence, but we do not really expect him back this phase.

One of the reasons we need Amile back is because Harry Giles is still rounding into basketball form, after 18 months off from competition, and because Marques Bolden seems out of fitness, and often out of position, after his early season injury. I do not know of other injuries ongoing that may cause a player to miss a game, but please chime in if I am missing something. This team is snake-bit. We need to get healthy and avoid further injuries. We need some reps together as a team to even form a rotation and begin thinking about developing chemistry.

Road Woes – We have lost our first three ACC road games. Here are the road records the last several years, first three games and season –

2016 2-1; 5-5
2015 2-1; 6-2
2014 1-2; 4-5
2013 1-2; 5-4

So an 0-3 start kinda stinks. We know the ACC is really good this season, and two eventual national champions struggled out of the gate (1-2 in 2010). This phase has road games at Wake and at Notre Dame. Wake is 2-4 in conference play; Notre Dame is 5-1. Notre Dame sounds like a tough one, but Wake likely will be too if this team is missing Amile and does not get something out of Giles, Bolden, Jeter. 1-1 on the road this phase would be better than ok. 2-0 would be a corner turned for this squad.

Grayson Allen, Point Guard – Grayson moved to the point after sitting out the Blacksburg game. In the four games since the move, Coach K’s last shuffle before his absence, Allen has 26 assists and 15 turnovers (1.73 ratio). On the season he’s at 68 assists to 35 turnovers (1.94). The team looked alive and dominant vs GT, but disorganized vs FSU. Allen has averaged 31.5 minutes the last four games, which suggests Capel is limiting his minutes more than you would expect. He’s being spelled by Frank Jackson at the point at times.

Qualitatively the team is more dynamic with Grayson as playmaker in chief. I am hopeful he can play to his strengths and get open looks for everyone while still scoring at a really good clip. It’s been a mixed bag so far, but I like it and I think the coaches are likely to stick with GA at PG. The only other option I would explore is Luke at the 1, in a Scheyer like move. But I do not know how likely this is at this point. Allen’s ability to distribute and get the frontcourt the ball in good position and to find open shooters is directly linked to this team hitting its ceiling this season.

Big vs Small – Tatum has played at the 4 a lot because our frontcourt has not produced. He presents a matchup nightmare vs some teams, but not against others. FSU made Tatum look small and he was ineffective for most of the game. Giles had one really good stint of play vs GT but has been a step slow, understandably, in his short season. Jeter and Bolden have not been big contributors at all. Frontcourt minutes are up for grabs with Amile out, but that rotation is going to shorten when he comes back.

I personally think a frontcourt lineup of Giles, Jefferson and Tatum is our best bet for heavy minutes. The +/- sample size is so small that I just don’t think it tells us anything. Giles has played 93 minutes on the season and is -1; Bolden has played 70 minutes and is +24; Jeter has played 238 minutes and is +83.

A bigger lineup should allow rim protection and better defensive rebounding. But will the coaches go big at the expense of switching defense, icing screens and offensive efficiency? Will this team start playing alternative defenses to get out of a rut? And if so, does that mean we go bigger or smaller?

We know we are going to see a fair amount of small ball with Coach K, especially late in games. But will Capel give Bolden and Jeter enough minutes to prove themselves and to earn a spot in Coach K’s rotation? I don’t know, but it is iffy. Will DeLaurier wiggle his way in there for certain matchups? It is wide open for the next few weeks, but small ball will likely be big for this squad come March.

Gimmicks/Changes/Overhaul – Coach K has thrown in some wrinkles in past seasons to get the team playing better. We saw the platoon system for a few games in 2014, a zone in 2015 and Scheyer moved to point in 2009 after Smith got concussed. We have already seen Grayson move to playmaker this year (playmaker rather than point guard?). Will we see anything further this year?

I’d love to see a press for stretches that includes DeLaurier and Tatum’s length and hops. I’d love to see Tatum at the top of a 1-3-1 zone the same way Ingram was used last season at times. I’d love to see us play man, zone, press, trap all within the same game, every game. I think switching things up keeps the team focused on D. Could we see something else I have not mentioned? So much is up in the air; nothing would surprise me the rest of the way.

Ceiling – Given we have our coach out, our captain and best defender out, and only have 13 regular season games left, it may be hard for this team to ever reach its ceiling. But the talent is there and we all trust Coach K because we have seen him do it before. What would it take for this team to hit on all cylinders?

We need to shoot better from 3. Grayson and Matt have slumped from outside some and the team is shooting .367 from 3. That has to improve given our guard heavy offense. We need inside scoring from Giles, Jeter, Bolden (10.1 ppg combined). We need Tatum to stop taking long 2’s and turnarounds. We need Amile back (duh). We need a set rotation so that chemistry can build. It is tough and it is very possible. What else needs to improve?

Go Duke!

[Saratoga2]

agree that chemistry is important and that the rotation needs to stabilize to allow that to happen. I prefer Grayson at point, Luke at SG, Jayson at SF, Amile at PF and Harry at C (really another PF). There is room for Matt and Frank to come off the bench while it is not clear how best to handle the subs in the front court. Neither Marques or Chase have distinguished themselves to date.


Getting open three point shots for our top shooters will be difficult against good defensive teams. Luke is being closely guarded and our front court hasn't been much of a threat so no double teams required there. Maybe Harry can get going and with Amile back the team can pose and offensive threat at multiple positions


Looking forward to better team defense in this phase. Without it, our record will not be up to expectations.

[Troublemaker]

Great Phase post, superdave! Thanks for setting the stage for the next few games.

[DukieInBrasil]

sorry to be a nerd, but isn't this Phase IV?

[kAzE]

sorry to be a nerd, but isn't this Phase IV?

Yep: http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?39123-Phase-III-2016-17-(Va-Tech-through-Louisville)

[budwom]

There are so many factors at play regarding our woes that only the Sperry Univac could calculate how this will sort itself out.

I kind of hope for an iterative process...first K comes back, providing the leadership we need.
Amile comes back, anchoring our (now woeful) defense. He is now, and probably for the future of the team, indispensable.

Harry continues to improve, and in a major way.
Tatum gets back to more team ball (see return of K, above)

Either Bolden or Jeter settles in to provide depth in the middle.

Each of these seems quite possible....the question is, can we get all of them?
I still think we can.

[Kedsy]

Nice job, Superdave. You've hit the high points and asked the questions that needed to be asked.

My only additional question would be, supposing the coaches do not go with the wrinkles/gimmicks you propose, how will our defense evolve this phase? Obviously Amile's return is a key to that, but even once he's back we have a lot of ground to cover, so to speak, on defense.


We do not have further details on Coach K’s absence, but we do not really expect him back this phase.

Wait, is this new news? I thought K was supposed to be back soon, maybe even against Miami? Is that no longer considered accurate?

[MartyClark]

Good job Super Dave. I agree with everything you suggest.

I can't remember a season so filled with injury, controversy, and uncertainty. It has been an interesting ride. This could be one of the most disappointing seasons in Duke basketball history or one of the best. I honestly have no idea.

I think Grayson's performance at point guard is better than the statistics suggest. It is not his natural position but, IMHO, he has done a good job. I'd like to see Duke set a few high screens for him to scramble the defense and, potentially, lead to some better drives and dishes.

I was privileged to go to the game at Louisville, I'm also heading to the game at Miami. This team is fun, disappointing, and promising. Sometimes all within a couple of minutes.

Go Duke.

[superdave]

Nice job, Superdave. You've hit the high points and asked the questions that needed to be asked.

My only additional question would be, supposing the coaches do not go with the wrinkles/gimmicks you propose, how will our defense evolve this phase? Obviously Amile's return is a key to that, but even once he's back we have a lot of ground to cover, so to speak, on defense.



Wait, is this new news? I thought K was supposed to be back soon, maybe even against Miami? Is that no longer considered accurate?

I thought Coach K was supposed to be out a month, which is right around the time of the Unc game. I could be wrong, but that is what my understanding has been.

[CDu]

I thought Coach K was supposed to be out a month, which is right around the time of the Unc game. I could be wrong, but that is what my understanding has been.

I think it was "up to a month", but no definitive timetable. There have even been recent rumblings about a possible return tomorrow.

[budwom]

I think it was "up to a month", but no definitive timetable. There have even been recent rumblings about a possible return tomorrow.

yeah, when it comes to Duke "info", and I use the term very loosely, it's imperative to read carefully. The original statement (still on goduke.com) says he'd be out
"up to a month." Therefore rumors he'll be back soon (very soon) make sense.

[Bob Green]

Good job, superdave!


Health – This team needs Amile Jefferson back to reach its ceiling.

There is no singular bigger issue for Phase IV than the return of Amile Jefferson. Will he return? When will he return?


Grayson Allen, Point Guard – Grayson moved to the point after sitting out the Blacksburg game.

Grayson Allen's development quarterbacking the offense is huge. If Allen excels, Duke will excel. Oversimplification? Perhaps, but not much of one. The team needs Allen to be a distributor and a scorer. Someone has to run the offense, without a pure point guard option, Allen is the best option.

A third issue all Duke fans should be keeping an eye on is the freshmen:

Jayson Tatum is a solid starter who needs some refinement moving forward in the areas of shot selection and defensive intensity. Tatum has the tools, length and quickness, to be an elite defender so it is frustrating that he seems to coast on defense at times.

Frank Jackson needs to be more consistent. Inconsistency isn't surprising in a freshman so I do not see this as a problem, I see it as a natural work in progress. The question is does he develop consistency this season or not until next season.

Harry Giles has demonstrated exceptional low post offense skills. His timing (touch) is off due to rust but he should continue to improve on the offensive end of the court game-by-game. The defensive end of the court is where big improvement is needed and where improvement will probably occur slower. Giles appears a half step slow, which results in him not being able to achieve position with his feet. The subsequent use of his hands on defense results in fouls. I expect to see improvement from Giles throughout Phase IV.

Marques Bolden has not played enough minutes to be a factor. First and foremost, he needs to get healthy.

[duketaylor]

Regarding Giles, I would think a solid week of practice will pay dividends tonight. Tough game, but I think we'll eek out a W.

GO DEVILS!!

[budwom]

Regarding Giles, I would think a solid week of practice will pay dividends tonight. Tough game, but I think we'll eek out a W.

GO DEVILS!!

yeah, we're nine point favorites which I think we'll beat if Amile is back and won't if he isn't (but could still grab the eeking win you expect)

[superdave]

Regarding Giles, I would think a solid week of practice will pay dividends tonight. Tough game, but I think we'll eek out a W.

GO DEVILS!!


yeah, we're nine point favorites which I think we'll beat if Amile is back and won't if he isn't (but could still grab the eeking win you expect)

A week off to rest and practice is great. Loose rims in Cameron are usually good for us. A home game is always better for freshmen. Hopefully the freshmen have grown some this week. That is a big key.

Confidence is big tonight, and each game going forward. If we get Amile back and the young guys can build on each outing, that is a path toward chemistry.

[superdave]

I saw one possession of press with Tatum up front and one of zone. Both in the disastrous first half. What do I know?

Man to man is the calling card and this squad is going to play it well or ride the bench.

[Troublemaker]

So, Miami marks the second game in a row now that our primary technique for defending ball screens is using the hedge instead of the ice. Hedging, of course, is what Duke had always done up until the past couple of seasons when Coach K was inspired by Thibs to ice the ball screens.

Why the change? Probably something real simple like we've discovered that our big men are better / more comfortable with forward and side-to-side movements than with the retreating movements you need to master with ice. Marques was excellent with his hedging and recovery against Miami, and we can win a lot of games with him playing that well.

[Bob Green]

Marques Bolden has not played enough minutes to be a factor. First and foremost, he needs to get healthy.

I'm not going to overreact to 20 minutes of solid basketball, there is enough recency bias ongoing in the Miami Post Game Thread, but Marques Bolden certainly looked healthy last night, in the 2nd half, against Miami. Let's see if he can repeat it tomorrow night against NCSU. That would be a trend and something to talk about.

[budwom]

yeah, I agree that Bolden's lateral movement was markedly improved...no small thing.

[Rich]

I'm not going to overreact to 20 minutes of solid basketball, there is enough recency bias ongoing in the Miami Post Game Thread, but Marques Bolden certainly looked healthy last night, in the 2nd half, against Miami. Let's see if he can repeat it tomorrow night against NCSU. That would be a trend and something to talk about.

He certainly seemed to "get" the defense last night, which can't be unlearned, so that's a good thing. In addition to being quick and smart, he was really playing big last night. Whether he can keep up that same level of energy hedging and recovering over 40 minutes is another thing. Unfortunately, Giles still seems to be behind defensively, whether because he's not getting it so quickly or because he's still playing tentatively due to injury, is tough to tell. But boy can he run the court.

Based on last night it looks like we have an offensive unit (Giles/Allen/Kennard) and a defensive unit (Bolden/Jackson/Jones) with Tatum and Jefferson cogs in both. Who starts? Who comes off the bench? And do we mix it up or establish these "teams"? Good stuff to work out.

[superdave]

He certainly seemed to "get" the defense last night, which can't be unlearned, so that's a good thing. In addition to being quick and smart, he was really playing big last night. Whether he can keep up that same level of energy hedging and recovering over 40 minutes is another thing. Unfortunately, Giles still seems to be behind defensively, whether because he's not getting it so quickly or because he's still playing tentatively due to injury, is tough to tell. But boy can he run the court.

Based on last night it looks like we have an offensive unit (Giles/Allen/Kennard) and a defensive unit (Bolden/Jackson/Jones) with Tatum and Jefferson cogs in both. Who starts? Who comes off the bench? And do we mix it up or establish these "teams"? Good stuff to work out.

That's your eight man rotation, but I am not sure the starters dont change from game to game the next few weeks. Capel is going to tinker, I bet, until guys settle into roles.

It seemed like Allen played very little pg last night. Is that accurate? Could we see Jones and Jackson take pg back from Allen?

[kmspeaks]

That's your eight man rotation, but I am not sure the starters dont change from game to game the next few weeks. Capel is going to tinker, I bet, until guys settle into roles.

It seemed like Allen played very little pg last night. Is that accurate? Could we see Jones and Jackson take pg back from Allen?

Matt Jones can do a lot of things to help this team win games, but I don't think playing point guard is one of them.

[DukieInBrasil]

Matt Jones can do a lot of things to help this team win games, but I don't think playing point guard is one of them.

Matt Jones can be trusted withe ball, in limited circumstances. He's too cautious (not strong enough) withe ball to run this offense at its highest level. I don't think he's particularly good at getting past his man via penetration either, although he does a reasonable job at it sometimes. He's a good pressure release guy for when the primary ball-handler gets stuck.
The way he played vs Miami was his optimal role: hit spot up 3s efficiently, an opportunistic steal under the basket for a layup and a blow by after shot fake for a floater. Jones has improved his 2FG% significantly this year, partly due to lower use but also better shot selection.
Otherwise, i agree, his best contribution to this team will not come from him playing PG.

[Saratoga2]

Matt Jones can be trusted withe ball, in limited circumstances. He's too cautious (not strong enough) withe ball to run this offense at its highest level. I don't think he's particularly good at getting past his man via penetration either, although he does a reasonable job at it sometimes. He's a good pressure release guy for when the primary ball-handler gets stuck.
The way he played vs Miami was his optimal role: hit spot up 3s efficiently, an opportunistic steal under the basket for a layup and a blow by after shot fake for a floater. Jones has improved his 2FG% significantly this year, partly due to lower use but also better shot selection.
Otherwise, i agree, his best contribution to this team will not come from him playing PG.

With both Grayson and Frank not handling the PG duties well, that leaves Luke and Matt. My suggestion is have Grayson and Frank bring the ball up and let Luke do the play making role.

[jipops]

With both Grayson and Frank not handling the PG duties well, that leaves Luke and Matt. My suggestion is have Grayson and Frank bring the ball up and let Luke do the play making role.

Problem is that eliminates much of Luke's effectiveness on offense and wears him down on defense. It's an option but not a good one. Unfortunately there are no good ones.

[Kedsy]

Unfortunately there are no good ones.

I still don't think offense is our problem.

[Matches]

I still don't think offense is our problem.

Our offense sometimes devolves into too much one-on-one play and at times we are sloppy with the ball. With that said, we can score enough points to beat just about anyone.

The defense is another story. We are getting eaten alive by dribble penetration and our big men are frequently out of position. There have been several games where I was screaming for a zone but TBH I don't know how great a fix that would be - a good zone requires precise positioning and we have the opposite of that. We also give inconsistent effort on defense which is maddening to watch.

This team has been really hurt by all the injuries and has not developed the continuity of style or role that normally we would see by this point in the season. IMO continuing to make dramatic changes every time we lose, while well intentioned, may be exacerbating that problem. Bottom line, and it may seem axiomatic, is just that guys have to play better. The big men have to do a better job positioning and rebounding. The effort on defense has to be consistent. We have to make free throws. There's no scheme that will be effective if guys don't execute.

[jv001]

I still don't think offense is our problem.

There are times our offense hurts our defense. At times we take bad shots and don't get back on defense. I think it was 50/50 last night as the D & O was not up to par. The end of the first half and the end game situations left a lot to be desired on offense and defense. Even though we scored 82 points, I was not too impressed with our team's offense. GoDuke!

[freshmanjs]

I still don't think offense is our problem.

Not sure about this. Offense has been Duke's calling card for the last 15 years at least. We have only had one season in the history of kenpom ratings where we finished with a worse offensive ranking than we currently have (2007).

[CDu]

Not sure about this. Offense has been Duke's calling card for the last 15 years at least. We have only had one season in the history of kenpom ratings where we finished with a worse offensive ranking than we currently have (2007).

Yeah, I think it all needs to be taken in context of how Duke has run in the last 5-6 years. Since we went to the one-and-done model, we have had the following offensive ratings:

2011: 6 off, 11 def
2012: 8 off, 78 def
2013: 4 off, 26 def
2014: 1 off, 87 def
2015: 3 off, 12 def
2016: 4 off, 86 def

Our offense has been consistently elite. When our defense has also been really good, we've been top-notch. But it's always been our offense carrying the load with our defense doing "enough".

This year, both our defense (#40) and our offense (#19) have struggled relative to what we want in order to succeed.

[superdave]

Yeah, I think it all needs to be taken in context of how Duke has run in the last 5-6 years. Since we went to the one-and-done model, we have had the following offensive ratings:

2011: 6 off, 11 def
2012: 8 off, 78 def
2013: 4 off, 26 def
2014: 1 off, 87 def
2015: 3 off, 12 def
2016: 4 off, 86 def

Our offense has been consistently elite. When our defense has also been really good, we've been top-notch. But it's always been our offense carrying the load with our defense doing "enough".

This year, both our defense (#40) and our offense (#19) have struggled relative to what we want in order to succeed.

It seems we are settling into an 8 man rotation and that everyone is healthy. Now this team needs to get reps together. That will give them the ability to fix some of the defensive problems they have. It may take the rest of the season to get there. At this point in 2015, they were playing a lot of zone. They didnt lock into successful man to man until the NCAA tournament arrived.

This year's squad has to get some chemistry and communication going before they will have confidence in the defense though. I think the bottom was vs Lousiville and first half vs Miami. They are fighting their way through it, but not there yet.

[freshmanjs]

It seems we are settling into an 8 man rotation and that everyone is healthy. Now this team needs to get reps together. That will give them the ability to fix some of the defensive problems they have. It may take the rest of the season to get there. At this point in 2015, they were playing a lot of zone. They didnt lock into successful man to man until the NCAA tournament arrived.

This year's squad has to get some chemistry and communication going before they will have confidence in the defense though. I think the bottom was vs Lousiville and first half vs Miami. They are fighting their way through it, but not there yet.

I'm surprised you think Amile is healthy. I don't think he is close to healthy.

[CDu]

I'm surprised you think Amile is healthy. I don't think he is close to healthy.

Yeah, I would say "healthy enough to play." I don't think Jefferson (foot) or Allen (finger) are fully healthy. In Jefferson's case, I would guess he isn't all that close to fully healthy.

Hopefully the almost-full week off before Wake will help.

[KandG]

There’s a lot of talk about how this year’s Duke team lacks a playmaker or PG, and the team’s low assist totals versus conference teams on the road — as well as the optics of seeing so many stagnant or isolation possessions — seems to bear that out. The actual assists/game numbers for conference games are right around Duke's average historically, but are skewed by super high numbers vs. Georgia Tech and BC at home, along with the first half vs NC State. The assist numbers on the road are much grimmer, and speak to the team's tendency to lose composure, isolate, and settle for quick shots or ill-advised hero shots too often.

Currently, the team has an assist rate (percentage of field goals assisted) of 47.9, per KenPom. This is the lowest assist rate a Duke team has had since 2002 (as far back as KenPom’s stats go). As an exercise, I looked at the assist rates for all Final Four teams going back to 2002, as well as the same number for all top 10 KenPom offenses and top 10 KenPom rated teams since 2010.

Caveat: I understand assists are a flawed metric — there’s some subjectivity in how they’re allotted, and they don’t measure passes leading to FTs, or passes leading to a quality open shot that is missed (i.e. near the rim, or a wide open 3 pointer). I’d love to see an “assist opportunity” metric -- I know several NBA and college teams have their own internal proprietary metrics that they use.

But assists are what we have, and for this discussion I think they’re useful enough. Again, I understand that there are many issues with this team, but I wanted to dive deeper into this particular angle just to see what it revealed.

Here were the most interesting findings to me:

* From 2002-2010, no Final Four teams had an assist rate of under 50 percent. Moreover, 83% of Final Four teams (30 out of 36 teams) had an assist rate that was at the D-1 average or better (which ranged from 54 to 55 percent in that time period).

* Broadly speaking, 8 or 9 of the top 10 KenPom teams in any given week will have an assist rate at the D-1 average or better. There will be 1 or 2 teams that are in there because of their extreme strength in some other metric (defense, rebounding). A good example this year is Louisville, with a so-so assist rate (and offense) but the 2nd ranked defense in the country.

* As many have noted on this forum, Duke has had an elite offense in just about every year. The assist rates for Duke teams with good offenses have been mostly middling though — hovering slightly below average most years. This is in contrast to teams like several of Izzo’s Michigan State teams or Boeheim’s Syracuse teams which generate top 50/top 75 assist rates. Basically, you don’t have to produce assists in high numbers to have a very good offense, though it doesn’t hurt. (Another good example of a low assist rate, high quality offense: Wisconsin 2015)

* Though I didn’t spend much time looking at turnovers, one of the things that makes Duke offenses good are the very low turnover rates, which are top 50 or higher most years. The one year Duke didn’t have a top 10 offense (2007), the team’s turnover rate was 243rd in D-1, a clear outlier.

* 2011 is where you see a marked break from the norm. Two Final Four teams (Butler and Kentucky) had sub-50 assist rates, and another (Connecticut) barely cleared the bar (50.7) and was still in the bottom third of D-1 on that metric.

* Duke has had four teams since 2002 with assist rates of less than 50 percent: 2003, 2005, 2012, and 2016. Anyone who remembers these teams, especially 2005 and 2012, wouldn’t be surprised. Good teams with plenty of offensive firepower, but many heads down players and less playmaking. Last year’s struggles with the thin roster and late development of Derryck Thornton should also register as no surprise.

* One team since 2011 stands out for having three teams with assist rates of under 50 percent *and* making the Final Four: Kentucky. These three teams were filled with talented young freshmen and very flawed PGs (Brandon Knight, Marquis Teague, freshman-edition Andrew Harrison).

* The best model for the current Duke team might be the 2014 Kentucky team: 14th ranked offense, 32nd ranked defense, and a subterranean assist rate of 44.4. As everyone knows, that team was criticized relentlessly during the regular season, earned an 8th seed, and made it to the final game.

To conclude, there are clearly many mitigating factors in the team's performance this year outside of not having a "true" point guard, which have been discussed to death. The lack of continuity obviously hampers the ability of the team to develop much chemistry. In my opinion, Grayson emerging from his funk to lead the team more authoritatively would be the best case scenario for improved ball movement and better shot quality -- I don't see the other players improving enough to be quality playmakers in the short term (including Luke, a popular choice here who I don't think is much of a playmaker).

The second best bet is for the team is for the team to simply continue to improve and get more comfortable with each other and committing to making the extra pass. I saw some of that in the first half of the NC State game, but I really want to see much more on the road as our schedule gets increasingly difficult.

[Wander]

Yeah, I think it all needs to be taken in context of how Duke has run in the last 5-6 years. Since we went to the one-and-done model, we have had the following offensive ratings:

2011: 6 off, 11 def
2012: 8 off, 78 def
2013: 4 off, 26 def
2014: 1 off, 87 def
2015: 3 off, 12 def
2016: 4 off, 86 def

Our offense has been consistently elite. When our defense has also been really good, we've been top-notch. But it's always been our offense carrying the load with our defense doing "enough".

This year, both our defense (#40) and our offense (#19) have struggled relative to what we want in order to succeed.

Right. In addition to this, I am pretty sure our offense has been trending downward. I don't have the kenpom rankings over the past month, but I'm pretty sure it was been a steady decline from a very high ranking to #19. That would be OK if we were trading offense for defense and our defensive efficiency ranking was trending upward, but I don't think that's been the case.

I still think we can be a very good team in March, but the point I've been harping on all along is seeding. We are going to put ourselves in a very tough position to make the Final Four by losing games like NC State.

[TruBlu]

Yeah, I would say "healthy enough to play." I don't think Jefferson (foot) or Allen (finger) are fully healthy. In Jefferson's case, I would guess he isn't all that close to fully healthy.

Hopefully the almost-full week off before Wake will help.

I think there is more physically going on with Allen than his finger. I paid particular attention to him in warm ups for the Miami game (I have great seats on that end of the court). In addition to not being "on" for his 3 pointers, he muffed 3 or 4 warmup dunks. And IIRC, he missed a dunk at the beginning of the game. He seems to be lacking his spring and agility.

Didn't he have a "lower body" injury earlier this year? Or am I confusing him with one of the other many lower body injuries that seem to be fond of our team this year?

[Indoor66]

I think there is more physically going on with Allen than his finger. I paid particular attention to him in warm ups for the Miami game (I have great seats on that end of the court). In addition to not being "on" for his 3 pointers, he muffed 3 or 4 warmup dunks. And IIRC, he missed a dunk at the beginning of the game. He seems to be lacking his spring and agility.

Didn't he have a "lower body" injury earlier this year? Or am I confusing him with one of the other many lower body injuries that seem to be fond of our team this year?

He had a toe injury - in the nature of turf toe.

[devilsince1977]

I am a little worried that it is getting late in the season for the team to gel. But, Duke is 2 possessions from being 17-3. Would we be all that troubled with 17-3?

[Ryan Long]

After the 2016 recruiting trail closed, I, like most college basketball enthusiasts, looked at Duke’s upcoming roster and applied the championship or bust label. Coach Kryzewski and company managed to snag two of the top 5 prospects in Harry Giles and Jayson Tatum, as well as two top 20 players in Frank Jackson and Marques Bolden. For the first time in some years, Duke seemed loaded with depth, propelling them to start the season as the #1 team in the nation.

In the first big test of the early season, Duke walked out with a 2-point loss to Kansas. Most refused to hang this loss over Duke’s head since they were down three out of four of the aforementioned freshmen dealing with injuries.

As each player worked back into the rotation, Duke went on a ten game winning streak before losing their conference opener to Virginia Tech. Notably, Grayson Allen became a national distraction the game prior for yet another tripping incident followed by an emotional tirade on the bench. This left Coach K with no option but to suspend his preseason All-American player for not upholding standards set out by the program.

To the dismay of many, the suspension lasted one game and Duke bounced back with a 53-point victory against Georgia Tech.

On came another setback, as Hall of Fame Coach Kryzewski announced that he would be out indefinitely due to back surgery and Jeff Capel would take his place.

In his absence, the team lost three of their last four, and currently sit ninth in the ACC standings with a 3-4 conference record.

Simply put, Duke has had to face a lot of early season adversity, with untimely injuries and have not meshed well when everyone is playing. Grayson Allen has looked like a shell of himself after his breakout season last year. For the 2015-16 season, he averaged 21 points per game with a slash line of .46/.41/.83 as compared to this year’s line of 15 points per game shooting .39/.31/.79. He is struggling with his play and one cannot help but to wonder if the public scrutiny is not affecting him mentally. In all fairness, he has had to overcome a turf toe injury that bothered him earlier in the year as well.

He is not the only one whose play has not lived up to expectations. Marques Bolden has had limited impact on the season. Harry Giles is starting to come into form as he gains more confidence and works himself back into playing shape. Jayson Tatum has had his moments but needs to show consistency with his shot making ability.

The two bright spots all year have been senior Amile Jefferson, who has missed time with a foot injury suffered in the game against Boston College and Luke Kennard who is playing at an All American level. Jefferson has been the defensive anchor and leader for this team while Kennard seems to be providing the play anticipated from Grayson Allen.

With news breaking that Coach K banned the players from using the locker room or wearing team apparel, it is time for the team to refocus and improve their play by becoming one unit. It has been a season of up and downs, one we are not use to seeing from Duke. However, with Coach K’s return imminent and the current talent overload, it is appropriate to err on the side of caution if writing this team off.

[rsvman]

I'm reading the book, so I didn't really need the Cliff's notes, but nice summary of the season so far.

[Bob Green]

What's your point? :confused:

[OldPhiKap]

Adversity builds character.

We will be fine.

I trust K.

[tteettimes]

Adversity builds character.

We will be fine.

I trust K.

Sure

[Edouble]

Couldn't this be posted in the most recent phase post?

[grad_devil]

No offense intended, but if you're not going to call him Coach K, at least spell Krzyzewski correctly.

[FadedTackyShirt]

Our group discussion at half time of the NCSU game was that the team finally had a core of 8 solid players coming together and could mix and match them according to opponent and let them go hard for short stretches without burning them out. Second half of that game, they reverted back to the first half of the Miami game.

Chemistry's definitely off, but think it's a mix of health, inexperience, and missing K. Defense needs to be more cohesive. Still holding out hope, but equally torn between a team that can get hot at the right time and what might have been.

[Bob Green]

Couldn't this be posted in the most recent phase post?

Yes, thanks for the excellent suggestion!

[superdave]

Last night was a step forward for the team. You can see they have grown some. I would attribute that to playing the upper classmen more minutes and defining the roles of the freshmen down some. Giles played fewer minutes, but really contributed down the stretch. Tatum looked to go one on one less, but he did have two offensive foul/turnovers that were dumb.

We can win now by going veteran (and we NEED to win now, to fix some things), but it lowers our ceiling come March. To be elite, we need Giles to be elite and need Bolden playing in the rotation. I hope we can get there by the end of February.

[superdave]

To close out Phase IV -

We went 5-1 this phase after going 2-3 the previous phase. We won our first two conference road games. We fought through some stale stretches of basketball to gut out a few wins.

We have seemingly learned how to get stops late in the game.

We got Coach K back, Amile back, shortened the rotation and seem to look like who we will be come tournament time. Definitely a roller coaster the past 6 weeks, but on to Phase V!