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View Full Version : MBB: Duke vs Miami (Sat, 1/21, 8:15pm ET, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread



Troublemaker
01-18-2017, 03:01 PM
Put your pre-game and in-game thoughts here.

Troublemaker
01-18-2017, 03:07 PM
Miami being next on the schedule is interesting because they've probably been the best ACC program at ball-screen offense since Larranaga arrived. Larranaga has described ball-screen offense as part of their identity and foundation as a program, and they've certainly hurt Duke in the past with it.

Duke did not play ball-screens well against FSU and Lville, and now we are spending most of this bye week in preparation for a final exam of sorts against Miami, who will run ball-screens relentlessly. I'm excited to see how it plays out.

duketaylor
01-18-2017, 03:20 PM
And now with the possibility of Amile and/or K returning it creates even more interest and intrigue. Let's get healthy and we can look back at some of our issues as nuisances rather than year-ending or year-changing issues. At least I'm hoping so.

UrinalCake
01-18-2017, 04:17 PM
Feels like a must-win game. I realize the inherent danger in saying that, because if we lose then what do we do from there? But really, this season is at a turning point and if we want to have any hope of getting things headed in the right direction then we need to win this one.

Ball screen defense will definitely be key; just as important is getting our offense clicking again. I didn't come into this season expecting us to be elite defensively, but I did expect us to be unstoppable on offense. Moving the ball and finding easy ways to score will in turn help out our defense, not the other way around.

gofurman
01-18-2017, 05:01 PM
Feels like a must-win game. I realize the inherent danger in saying that, because if we lose then what do we do from there? But really, this season is at a turning point and if we want to have any hope of getting things headed in the right direction then we need to win this one.

Ball screen defense will definitely be key; just as important is getting our offense clicking again. I didn't come into this season expecting us to be elite defensively, but I did expect us to be unstoppable on offense. Moving the ball and finding easy ways to score will in turn help out our defense, not the other way around.

Of the next three games - home Miami, home State and at wake I would put them in this order of ease: home v State, home v Miami, away at Wake. We haven't lost at home.. haven't won on the Road. Yes, our away games were vs top 15 teams but the ACC is just harsh on the road this year.

We have had a full week to prep for this game while Miami plays tonight. Thats a definite edge - esp w our weak azs Defense lately. Just what we need. A week to work on D. Might watch Miami to get a little perspective. From stats their main guy is Newton both scoring and assisting

Question -= what is the real difference in ball-screen O and pick and roll O? Is ball screen O just rubbing guys off and coming off screens like we do for shooters ? Vs a pick and roll w two specific guys - one who can choose to shoot or drive depending on the defender going under or over the screen? I ask because to my eyes we say we are bad at ball screen O but I saw things that looked like pick and roll from FSU and Louisville that just killed us..

-jk
01-18-2017, 05:17 PM
Question -= what is the real difference in ball-screen O and pick and roll O? Is ball screen O just rubbing guys off and coming off screens like we do for shooters ? Vs a pick and roll w two specific guys - one who can choose to shoot or drive depending on the defender going under or over the screen? I ask because to my eyes we say we are bad at ball screen O but I saw things that looked like pick and roll from FSU and Louisville that just killed us..

With Miami (and UVa), mostly in moving screens v. set screens. And the refs get tired of calling them...

-jk

Troublemaker
01-18-2017, 05:25 PM
Question -= what is the real difference in ball-screen O and pick and roll O? Is ball screen O just rubbing guys off and coming off screens like we do for shooters ? Vs a pick and roll w two specific guys - one who can choose to shoot or drive depending on the defender going under or over the screen? I ask because to my eyes we say we are bad at ball screen O but I saw things that looked like pick and roll from FSU and Louisville that just killed us..

Ball screen and pick-and-roll are pretty much used interchangeably. Technically, ball screen is the more general term, and pick-and-roll can be considered a subset of it because the pick-and-pop is also ball screen offense.

CDu
01-18-2017, 05:30 PM
Question -= what is the real difference in ball-screen O and pick and roll O? Is ball screen O just rubbing guys off and coming off screens like we do for shooters ? Vs a pick and roll w two specific guys - one who can choose to shoot or drive depending on the defender going under or over the screen? I ask because to my eyes we say we are bad at ball screen O but I saw things that looked like pick and roll from FSU and Louisville that just killed us..

Pick and roll is a subset of ball screens. You can also pick and pop, run a rub screen, slip the screen. A ball screen offense is simply one that runs a lot of on-ball screens. As opposed to, say, the Princeton offense, which primarily runs off-ball screens.

We struggle with pretty much any ball screens. But pick and roll just emphasizes it because if you struggle there it results in layups and dunks. FSU hurt us with pick and roll with the ballhandler driving. I feel like some of Louisville's success was with the ballhandler staying on the perimeter.

Troublemaker
01-18-2017, 05:31 PM
Feels like a must-win game. I realize the inherent danger in saying that, because if we lose then what do we do from there? But really, this season is at a turning point and if we want to have any hope of getting things headed in the right direction then we need to win this one.

Ball screen defense will definitely be key; just as important is getting our offense clicking again. I didn't come into this season expecting us to be elite defensively, but I did expect us to be unstoppable on offense. Moving the ball and finding easy ways to score will in turn help out our defense, not the other way around.

It's complementary in both directions. Play good defense, including grabbing the defensive rebound, and your offense can get some easy stuff in transition, for example.

Gut feeling -- not based on any technical analysis -- Duke's defense will step up in this game, and Duke's offense will still look like a bit of a mess against a third consecutive strong defensive opponent.

gofurman
01-18-2017, 09:14 PM
Of the next three games - home Miami, home State and at wake I would put them in this order of ease: home v State, home v Miami, away at Wake. We haven't lost at home.. haven't won on the Road. Yes, our away games were vs top 15 teams but the ACC is just harsh on the road this year.

We have had a full week to prep for this game while Miami plays tonight. Thats a definite edge - esp w our weak azs Defense lately. Just what we need. A week to work on D. Might watch Miami to get a little perspective. From stats their main guy is Newton both scoring and assisting

Question -= what is the real difference in ball-screen O and pick and roll O? Is ball screen O just rubbing guys off and coming off screens like we do for shooters ? Vs a pick and roll w two specific guys - one who can choose to shoot or drive depending on the defender going under or over the screen? I ask because to my eyes we say we are bad at ball screen O but I saw things that looked like pick and roll from FSU and Louisville that just killed us..

i don't know anything but watching wake v Miami. At wake. I stand by my assertion that the road is a killer - wake is far better than Miami while at wake. Otherwise probably pretty even or I think Miami is better. So I still think in order wake is by FAAAAAR the hardest game of the three. Watching Miami I may fear State on a two day turn more than Miami now

This is ugly. No alibi. Wake killing miami

Saratoga2
01-18-2017, 10:24 PM
It's complementary in both directions. Play good defense, including grabbing the defensive rebound, and your offense can get some easy stuff in transition, for example.

Gut feeling -- not based on any technical analysis -- Duke's defense will step up in this game, and Duke's offense will still look like a bit of a mess against a third consecutive strong defensive opponent.

Opposing coaches will try to minimize opportunities for Luke to score and in particular from the 3 point range. We have seen Luke respond with a mid range game and from the foul line but the limits on him mean that we need others to pick it up. Grayson and Frank also need to produce more and with efficiency and Harry has to get well into double figures. Jayson needs to make plays as well as score. Matt will probably get his normal opportunities so I don't expect more or less from him. I don't expect our defense to make a quantum leap so we will need more points to get a solid win.

gofurman
01-18-2017, 10:34 PM
i don't know anything but watching wake v Miami. At wake. I stand by my assertion that the road is a killer - wake is far better than Miami while at wake. Otherwise probably pretty even or I think Miami is better. So I still think in order wake is by FAAAAAR the hardest game of the three. Watching Miami I may fear State on a two day turn more than Miami now

This is ugly. No alibi. Wake killing miami

Anyone else watch wake v Miami

curtis325
01-18-2017, 10:41 PM
Anyone else watch wake v Miami

Yes, Miami didn't seem to be playing much defense. I hope that continues.

gofurman
01-18-2017, 10:54 PM
Yes, Miami didn't seem to be playing much defense. I hope that continues.

Pros - Miami did struggle on D and looked discombobulated at times. No superstar power like in some of their best years

Cons - Miami does press pretty well and Wake struggled v the press at times. But I don't know that they pressed until they were behind. Wake got way ahead ... By 18 or so in first half and then Miami started a press which rattled Wake and seemed to be run pretty well. Main concern was I saw a team (miami) that spreads you w athletic guards and drives pretty well. Several And 1' drives for Miami with strong attacks at the rim. The primary scorers and scary guys are all guards. 6'2 Newton who is also their main assist guy. Good player. D Reed is a big scorer at 6'5. And one of the primary Rebound guys is a 6'5 freshman. So definitely a Guard driven team. They do drive well ..get to rim.. But they didn't appear to drive and kick too much. Appears you could sag off three-point shooters a little? Just my take

weezie
01-18-2017, 11:18 PM
Think we'll see it rain Duke Blue from three point land on Sat. Woefully dry last few games.

Spanarkel
01-19-2017, 07:09 AM
Pick and roll is a subset of ball screens. You can also pick and pop, run a rub screen, slip the screen. A ball screen offense is simply one that runs a lot of on-ball screens. As opposed to, say, the Princeton offense, which primarily runs off-ball screens.

We struggle with pretty much any ball screens. But pick and roll just emphasizes it because if you struggle there it results in layups and dunks. FSU hurt us with pick and roll with the ballhandler driving. I feel like some of Louisville's success was with the ballhandler staying on the perimeter.

Thanks for the explanation. Is a slipped screen de facto a moving screen? It seems like if you feign to screen but don't really set yourself/stay set, but yet are potentially interfering with the defenders, you could be "setting a moving screen."

CDu
01-19-2017, 07:31 AM
Thanks for the explanation. Is a slipped screen de facto a moving screen? It seems like if you feign to screen but don't really set yourself/stay set, but yet are potentially interfering with the defenders, you could be "setting a moving screen."

No sweat.

A slipped screen is where you set up like you are going to set a screen on the perimeter, but just before the ballhandler arrives, you roll to the basket away from the ballhandler. So it wouldn't be a moving screen, because the point is specifically to not make contact or interfere with thballhandler's man. What you are trying to do with a slipped screen is to get the "screener's" man to commit to the hedge or switch, then cut to the basket unimpeded. You don't want to make contact for an actual screen because you don't want to alert the ballhandler's man that you are about to be unguarded going to the basket.

So in a way a slipped screen has some similarities to an off-ball back cut. Both are essentially ways of an off-ball player deceiving his own man to get a free run at the basket.

Spanarkel
01-19-2017, 08:54 AM
No sweat.

A slipped screen is where you set up like you are going to set a screen on the perimeter, but just before the ballhandler arrives, you roll to the basket away from the ballhandler. So it wouldn't be a moving screen, because the point is specifically to not make contact or interfere with thballhandler's man. What you are trying to do with a slipped screen is to get the "screener's" man to commit to the hedge or switch, then cut to the basket unimpeded. You don't want to make contact for an actual screen because you don't want to alert the ballhandler's man that you are about to be unguarded going to the basket.

So in a way a slipped screen has some similarities to an off-ball back cut. Both are essentially ways of an off-ball player deceiving his own man to get a free run at the basket.

Thanks!

Billy Dat
01-19-2017, 11:26 AM
I wasn't able to watch the Louisville game in real time and didn't get around to it until last night. Knowing the outcome, I was able to be a little more analytical and saw a bunch of reasons for optimism.

Grayson seems like the tripping maelstrom has hardened and focused him. I thought he played really well without sacrificing what makes him tic. That was a brutal atmosphere and he was more than game. It's easy to forget that pre-Elon, he was hurt most of the time. He looks right, which is big.

Harry is coming on, he looked springy at times, and I am noticing pretty solid progress with each game.

Not everyone can defend like Louisville, currently ranked KenPom #2 in D and had to go back to 2010 to find a time their defense was ranked less than 5th. That D was largely responsible for our offense looking spotty. Miami's D is really good, too, at KenPom 21, but we'll be home and I think we'll manage better.

Our defense, I can't see it getting worse. A week of practice has to have helped. Capel is still trying to nail down a rotation, I am optimistic.

I also feel like it's a must win game. We're home, we need to win the games in which we are favored, we are 0-3 on the road which makes home wins essential, etc.

Olympic Fan
01-19-2017, 01:20 PM
It doesn't help that we have lost two in a row and four of the last six to Larranaga at Miami.

Next to Brey (1-5), he's been Coach K's biggesr bugaboo.

In contrast, he's won 8 of the last 10 from Bennett ... He's 11-4 in the last 15 with Roy Williams (16-11 overall) ... 3-2 v s. Boeheim in the ACC (4-3 overall) .. now 3-3 vs. Pitino (2-2 in the ACC).

Rich
01-19-2017, 01:41 PM
It doesn't help that we have lost two in a row and four of the last six to Larranaga at Miami.

Next to Brey (1-5), he's been Coach K's biggest bugaboo.

In contrast, he's won 8 of the last 10 from Bennett ... He's 11-4 in the last 15 with Roy Williams (16-11 overall) ... 3-2 v s. Boeheim in the ACC (4-3 overall) .. now 3-3 vs. Pitino (2-2 in the ACC).

Here's rooting for Coach K to sit this one out?

OldPhiKap
01-19-2017, 01:48 PM
It doesn't help that we have lost two in a row and four of the last six to Larranaga at Miami.

Next to Brey (1-5), he's been Coach K's biggesr bugaboo.

In contrast, he's won 8 of the last 10 from Bennett ... He's 11-4 in the last 15 with Roy Williams (16-11 overall) ... 3-2 v s. Boeheim in the ACC (4-3 overall) .. now 3-3 vs. Pitino (2-2 in the ACC).

Larranaga is a great coach who does not get the props he deserves at times. I think he's a much better coach than Roy for example and not surprised to see that streak.

Sample size against Boeheim and Pitino is kinda small but still impressive.

This is going to be a really tough game under the best of conditions.

CDu
01-19-2017, 02:01 PM
In what amounts to more or less a must-win game for Duke (not literally of course, but a REALLY important game to win), we face the Hurricanes in Cameron. Here's what we are facing.

Miami is in some ways a bit like FSU this year in that they play fairly small aside from center, going almost exclusively with 4 wings. They are quite athletic, and they are aggressive. Having the game in Cameron will no doubt help - teams like that seem to get away with a lot more physicality at home than in Cameron. But like the 'Noles this year, the 'Canes have some perimeter skill to go along with that athleticism.

As for their squad:

At C, they rely on a 2.5-headed monster of Dewan Huell (6'11", 220lb freshman), Ebuka Izundo (6'10", 230lb sophomore), and a bit of time from Kamari Murphy (6'8", 220lb senior). Huell and Izundo get the majority of the center minutes, combining for 31 mpg, 11 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 1.7 bpg, and 4.6 fpg. Both are decent-to-good free throw shooters, and do get involved in the offense. In an absolute pinch, Rodney Miller (7'0", 260lb freshman) can step in for a few minutes. But he plays VERY sparingly.

At PF, Murphy is the main guy. He is kind of a poor-man's Amile Jefferson. He's more springy than Jefferson with a bit less craftiness, but they serve a lot of the same role in terms of leadership inside, rebounding, and defending. Murphy isn't a guy that they run plays for, but he makes an impact on the game just about every time out. When Murphy is out or when he is playing C, the 'Canes go with one of their bigger wings at PF: either Anthony Lawrence (6'7", 210lb sophomore) or Davon Reed (6'6", 220lb senior). Lawrence is a floor spacer and a good 3pt shooter. He is a really nice option as a stretch-4.

On the wings, Lawrence and Reed are the top two guys. Reed, in particular, is a load. He is a big, physical, athletic wing, but he's a strong shooter (38+% from 3 each of the last 3 years, 81+% from the line the last two years). Reed has a ton of talent; the issue for him has always been consistency. In previous years, you never knew what you'd get from him each night. This year, he's been fairly consistent. He takes a lot of shots, but he makes a lot of them. I'd expect Matt Jones to get the primary assignment on Reed. Along with Reed, the other starting wing is Bruce Brown (6'5", 190lb freshman, top-30 recruit). Brown is a terrific athlete and a tough, physical defender with a good outside shot and a knack for the boards (7.1 rpg in 30mpg). Those two guys are a handful.

Off the bench, the 'Canes roll with Lawrence, who as I mentioned is a terrific shooter. He's less dynamic than Reed, but still quite effective off the bench. The other guard is Vasiljevic (6'3", 200lb freshman from Australia), who is a catch-and-shoot 3pt guy almost exclusively (38.6%, 85% of his FGA are 3s).

At the point, Je'Quan Newton (6'2", 190lb junior) is the main guy. Newton was a terrific sixth man last year who would score in bunches off the bench. He's still a terrific scorer, but he's being asked to distribute more. Distributing his not his forte, as his 3.5 turnovers per game and 1.2:1 assist:turnover ratio would suggest. But he's really quick, strong, and a good leaper, and has no trouble getting into the lane. Newton isn't the greatest outside shooter in the world (31% from 3), but he focuses on getting into the paint. When he gets in the lane, he can do some damage.

The 'Canes are in some ways like us, too, in that they don't have a true PG. Newton is in theory that guy, but he's really an undersized SG who can dribble. But like us, they spread the ball around and will typically attack from the wings. Newton, Reed, and Brown are the three guys that have the ball in their hands the most, and not surprisingly they are the team's leading scorers. The rest of the players are primarily catch-and-shoot guys (Lawrence, Vasiljevic) or "energy guys" (their bigs) who get the scraps that their top 3 leave behind.

I won't say it will be an easy game. Miami has at times looked great on the road (72-46 win over Pitt) and at times looked bad on the road (blowout losses at Syracuse and Wake). So it's hard to say which team we'll get. But it's a very winnable game, and it is a game that I think we will win. The 'Canes are playing their third road game in 8 days (Pitt, Wake, now Duke) and is making their second road trip to NC in 3 days (they played at Wake Wednesday). Combine that with our week to prepare and I think we will get the win.

Bob Green
01-19-2017, 04:16 PM
Here's what we are facing.

THANKS! Your previews of opponents are very informative. Unfortunately:


You must spread some Comments around before commenting on CDu again.

I'm sure someone around here will give me an assist.

jv001
01-19-2017, 04:29 PM
In what amounts to more or less a must-win game for Duke (not literally of course, but a REALLY important game to win), we face the Hurricanes in Cameron. Here's what we are facing.

Miami is in some ways a bit like FSU this year in that they play fairly small aside from center, going almost exclusively with 4 wings. They are quite athletic, and they are aggressive. Having the game in Cameron will no doubt help - teams like that seem to get away with a lot more physicality at home than in Cameron. But like the 'Noles this year, the 'Canes have some perimeter skill to go along with that athleticism.

As for their squad:

At C, they rely on a 2.5-headed monster of Dewan Huell (6'11", 220lb freshman), Ebuka Izundo (6'10", 230lb sophomore), and a bit of time from Kamari Murphy (6'8", 220lb senior). Huell and Izundo get the majority of the center minutes, combining for 31 mpg, 11 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 1.7 bpg, and 4.6 fpg. Both are decent-to-good free throw shooters, and do get involved in the offense. In an absolute pinch, Rodney Miller (7'0", 260lb freshman) can step in for a few minutes. But he plays VERY sparingly.

At PF, Murphy is the main guy. He is kind of a poor-man's Amile Jefferson. He's more springy than Jefferson with a bit less craftiness, but they serve a lot of the same role in terms of leadership inside, rebounding, and defending. Murphy isn't a guy that they run plays for, but he makes an impact on the game just about every time out. When Murphy is out or when he is playing C, the 'Canes go with one of their bigger wings at PF: either Anthony Lawrence (6'7", 210lb sophomore) or Davon Reed (6'6", 220lb senior). Lawrence is a floor spacer and a good 3pt shooter. He is a really nice option as a stretch-4.

On the wings, Lawrence and Reed are the top two guys. Reed, in particular, is a load. He is a big, physical, athletic wing, but he's a strong shooter (38+% from 3 each of the last 3 years, 81+% from the line the last two years). Reed has a ton of talent; the issue for him has always been consistency. In previous years, you never knew what you'd get from him each night. This year, he's been fairly consistent. He takes a lot of shots, but he makes a lot of them. I'd expect Matt Jones to get the primary assignment on Reed. Along with Reed, the other starting wing is Bruce Brown (6'5", 190lb freshman, top-30 recruit). Brown is a terrific athlete and a tough, physical defender with a good outside shot and a knack for the boards (7.1 rpg in 30mpg). Those two guys are a handful.

Off the bench, the 'Canes roll with Lawrence, who as I mentioned is a terrific shooter. He's less dynamic than Reed, but still quite effective off the bench. The other guard is Vasiljevic (6'3", 200lb freshman from Australia), who is a catch-and-shoot 3pt guy almost exclusively (38.6%, 85% of his FGA are 3s).

At the point, Je'Quan Newton (6'2", 190lb junior) is the main guy. Newton was a terrific sixth man last year who would score in bunches off the bench. He's still a terrific scorer, but he's being asked to distribute more. Distributing his not his forte, as his 3.5 turnovers per game and 1.2:1 assist:turnover ratio would suggest. But he's really quick, strong, and a good leaper, and has no trouble getting into the lane. Newton isn't the greatest outside shooter in the world (31% from 3), but he focuses on getting into the paint. When he gets in the lane, he can do some damage.

The 'Canes are in some ways like us, too, in that they don't have a true PG. Newton is in theory that guy, but he's really an undersized SG who can dribble. But like us, they spread the ball around and will typically attack from the wings. Newton, Reed, and Brown are the three guys that have the ball in their hands the most, and not surprisingly they are the team's leading scorers. The rest of the players are primarily catch-and-shoot guys (Lawrence, Vasiljevic) or "energy guys" (their bigs) who get the scraps that their top 3 leave behind.

I won't say it will be an easy game. Miami has at times looked great on the road (72-46 win over Pitt) and at times looked bad on the road (blowout losses at Syracuse and Wake). So it's hard to say which team we'll get. But it's a very winnable game, and it is a game that I think we will win. The 'Canes are playing their third road game in 8 days (Pitt, Wake, now Duke) and is making their second road trip to NC in 3 days (they played at Wake Wednesday). Combine that with our week to prepare and I think we will get the win.

Thanks Cdu for your write up on the Canes. It looks Miami has enough experience with 2 seniors and 1 junior that are pretty good players. The 5 position has a freshman and soph. I expect the same kind of game that we saw from FSU, but maybe with a little less talent. We will have to have a good game to beat a Miami team that seems to give us fits(even if we are playing in CIS). Another good evaluation on our opponent, Cdu. GoDuke!

jipops
01-19-2017, 11:39 PM
I would say this one and the State game are both must win games in that they are two of the most winnable games we have left.

richardjackson199
01-20-2017, 04:42 AM
THANKS! Your previews of opponents are very informative. Unfortunately:



I'm sure someone around here will give me an assist.

Agreed and done.

NYBri
01-20-2017, 08:40 AM
Agreed and done.

Done twice.

Spanarkel
01-20-2017, 09:40 AM
FWIW, Jack White and UM's Vasiljevic played on at least one Australian FIBA team together, though they have different hometowns downunder.

From Coach Capel's comments in the UL presser I think we may continue to see Javin play in the 5-10 minute range. Coach seemed impressed with Javin's practice efforts.

Go Duke!

Troublemaker
01-20-2017, 09:55 AM
FWIW, Jack White and UM's Vasiljevic played on at least one Australian FIBA team together, though they have different hometowns downunder.

From Coach Capel's comments in the UL presser I think we may continue to see Javin play in the 5-10 minute range. Coach seemed impressed with Javin's practice efforts.

Go Duke!

Perhaps, but Louisville is unique in that they play 2 bigs 100% of the time. So when Tatum was out of the game, Duke's choice was either to play four guards or match Louisville by playing a true PF in Javin. We decided to play Javin, obviously. But not sure we continue to do so against most opponents. And, of course, when Amile is back, Javin probably doesn't play.

CDu
01-20-2017, 11:49 AM
Perhaps, but Louisville is unique in that they play 2 bigs 100% of the time. So when Tatum was out of the game, Duke's choice was either to play four guards or match Louisville by playing a true PF in Javin. We decided to play Javin, obviously. But not sure we continue to do so against most opponents. And, of course, when Amile is back, Javin probably doesn't play.

Miami plays about half the game with two bigs and half the game with essentially a SF at PF. They do start with two bigs, and will do it some throughout, but they play large stretches of the game with a smaller guy (Lawrence) at the PF spot. So they do play smaller than Louisville for sure, but they do spend a decent chunk of the game with two bigs.

That being said, I suspect it also depends on the availability of Jefferson. I don't think pairing two of our centers (Giles, Bolden, Jeter) is a great idea. They just aren't comfortable enough defending away from the basket. Similarly, I doubt the staff wants to go major minutes with Jones at the PF spot. So when Tatum sits, it makes sense to go with DeLaurier at PF. Unless, of course, Jefferson is back. Then, obviously, Jefferson is the guy to fill that role.

So if Jefferson doesn't play, I wouldn't be surprised to see DeLaurier get 6-8 minutes subbing for Tatum. If Jefferson does play, I think DeLaurier would hopefully just get the 2-3 garbage-time minutes in our blowout win ;).

NM Duke Fan
01-20-2017, 11:56 AM
Miami plays about half the game with two bigs and half the game with essentially a SF at PF. They do start with two bigs, and will do it some throughout, but they play large stretches of the game with a smaller guy (Lawrence) at the PF spot. So they do play smaller than Louisville for sure, but they do spend a decent chunk of the game with two bigs.

That being said, I suspect it also depends on the availability of Jefferson. I don't think pairing two of our centers (Giles, Bolden, Jeter) is a great idea. They just aren't comfortable enough defending away from the basket. Similarly, I doubt the staff wants to go major minutes with Jones at the PF spot. So when Tatum sits, it makes sense to go with DeLaurier at PF. Unless, of course, Jefferson is back. Then, obviously, Jefferson is the guy to fill that role.

So if Jefferson doesn't play, I wouldn't be surprised to see DeLaurier get 6-8 minutes subbing for Tatum. If Jefferson does play, I think DeLaurier would hopefully just get the 2-3 garbage-time minutes in our blowout win ;).

An interesting idea. It could work, but I doubt it will happen. Personally I would be surprised to see him get anything but garbage time minutes, if there are any to be had. Hopefully there WILL be such minutes available!

Olympic Fan
01-20-2017, 12:51 PM
I would say this one and the State game are both must win games in that they are two of the most winnable games we have left.

Ranking the remaining games in terms of difficulty (easiest to toughest):

1. Feb. 18 -- Wake Forest at Duke
2. Jan. 21 -- Miami at Duke
3. Jan. 23 -- N.C. State at Duke (I think State is a little more talented than Miami)
4. Feb. 11 -- Clemson at Duke
5. Feb. 4 -- Pitt at Duke
6. Jan. 28 -- Duke at Wake Forest
7. Feb. 28 -- Florida State at Duke
8. Feb. 22 -- Duke at Syracuse
9. Feb. 25 -- Duke at Miami
10. Feb. 9 -- North Carolina at Duke
11. Feb. 15 -- Duke at Virginia
12. Mar. 4 -- Duke at UNC
13. Jan. 28 -- Duke at Notre Dame

I understand some might flip the last two, but look at the record -- we've had MUCH more recent success in Chapel Hill (winning four of the last five there) than in South Bend (0-2 since they joined the league).

Of course, that's just based on the strength of our opponents and the locations of the games. It doesn't take into account who Duke does or doesn't have in the lineup

Skydog
01-20-2017, 01:14 PM
We should beat Miami handily at home given they are 0-5 against Kenpom's top 50 this season. The only counterpoint is they shellacked 63rd ranked Pitt on the road, which is as difficult as beating a top 50 team at home. Their next best win was a healthy home victory over 76th ranked NC State. The rest of their schedule has been supersoft.

CDu
01-20-2017, 01:25 PM
Ranking the remaining games in terms of difficulty (easiest to toughest):

1. Feb. 18 -- Wake Forest at Duke
2. Jan. 21 -- Miami at Duke
3. Jan. 23 -- N.C. State at Duke (I think State is a little more talented than Miami)
4. Feb. 11 -- Clemson at Duke
5. Feb. 4 -- Pitt at Duke
6. Jan. 28 -- Duke at Wake Forest
7. Feb. 28 -- Florida State at Duke
8. Feb. 22 -- Duke at Syracuse
9. Feb. 25 -- Duke at Miami
10. Feb. 9 -- North Carolina at Duke
11. Feb. 15 -- Duke at Virginia
12. Mar. 4 -- Duke at UNC
13. Jan. 28 -- Duke at Notre Dame

I understand some might flip the last two, but look at the record -- we've had MUCH more recent success in Chapel Hill (winning four of the last five there) than in South Bend (0-2 since they joined the league).

Of course, that's just based on the strength of our opponents and the locations of the games. It doesn't take into account who Duke does or doesn't have in the lineup

I think I agree with this list. I would add that the other reason as to why the UNC game in Chapel Hill might be easier than the Notre Dame game is because it will be over a month later, when this young and injury-ravaged team should again be healthy and have had more experience. To add to that, Notre Dame spreads you out much more than UNC, which plays to our weaknesses.

Not that either will be easy, but I'd put the Notre Dame game as tougher than the UNC game.

CDu
01-20-2017, 01:27 PM
An interesting idea. It could work, but I doubt it will happen. Personally I would be surprised to see him get anything but garbage time minutes, if there are any to be had. Hopefully there WILL be such minutes available!

I would not be surprised if DeLaurier plays only garbage time either. It is certainly possible that the staff will be sure to stagger minutes such that Jones plays the PF spot only when Lawrence is the PF for Miami. Just saying that it would not surprise me to see DeLaurier get some real-time minutes if Tatum needs a rest or is in foul trouble.

flyingdutchdevil
01-20-2017, 01:31 PM
I would not be surprised if DeLaurier plays only garbage time either. It is certainly possible that the staff will be sure to stagger minutes such that Jones plays the PF spot only when Lawrence is the PF for Miami. Just saying that it would not surprise me to see DeLaurier get some real-time minutes if Tatum needs a rest or is in foul trouble.

I dunno, CDu... as much as I want DeLaurier to play, he is still so raw. Even though your strategy makes sense, I see Tatum playing plenty of minutes or Jones moving to the 4 so much more than DeLaurier at the 4.

Hope I'm wrong, though.

Troublemaker
01-20-2017, 01:49 PM
We should beat Miami handily at home given they are 0-5 against Kenpom's top 50 this season. The only counterpoint is they shellacked 63rd ranked Pitt on the road, which is as difficult as beating a top 50 team at home. Their next best win was a healthy home victory over 76th ranked NC State. The rest of their schedule has been supersoft.

Well KenPom's numbers are predicting a 9-pt win for Duke. I don't know if you count that as "handily" beating them, but I personally would take it. Truth be told, I would take ANY win in which we can easily identify that something has improved. So let's say our offense still stinks against a good defense, but our defense steps it up for an ugly 66-61 win in which we handle Miami's ball screens well. I'll take that, although others might complain.

We need to take a first step, no matter how slight.

kAzE
01-20-2017, 02:01 PM
Well KenPom's numbers are predicting a 9-pt win for Duke. I don't know if you count that as "handily" beating them, but I personally would take it. Truth be told, I would take ANY win in which we can easily identify that something has improved. So let's say our offense still stinks against a good defense, but our defense steps it up for an ugly 66-61 win in which we handle Miami's ball screens well. I'll take that, although others might complain.

We need to take a first step, no matter how slight.

Any improvement would be welcomed, but I don't think it's any secret that our largest opportunity for growth still sits with our young bigs. The past 2 games without Amile, we've been very soft on the interior, so if any one or more of Harry, Chase, and Marques can demonstrate some real progress, that would be the best possible thing for our long term success. I'm still waiting to see one of them successfully hedge and recover on a defensive pick and roll. Once that starts to happens consistently, we'll be much better off on defense.

Hopefully the lack of effort on getting back in transition will become a thing of the past. I'm sure that's been drilled into them pretty harshly this week.

UrinalCake
01-20-2017, 02:22 PM
I would consider Florida State at Duke to be a harder game than Duke at Syracuse. I think the strength of the opponent offsets the home team advantage, and Syracuse looks pretty terrible.

CDu
01-20-2017, 02:46 PM
I dunno, CDu... as much as I want DeLaurier to play, he is still so raw. Even though your strategy makes sense, I see Tatum playing plenty of minutes or Jones moving to the 4 so much more than DeLaurier at the 4.

Hope I'm wrong, though.

Just to be clear, I fully expect that if Jefferson is out that Tatum will play exclusively at the 4. And he'll play the vast majority of the game. This is just a question of the minutes that he is out. If Tatum is out and Miami has Murphy at the 4, I can see the team possibly going to DeLaurier for a few minutes. If Tatum is out and Lawrence is at the 4, I could see the team going with Jones at the 4.

I definitely don't expect major minutes for DeLaurier in any reasonable circumstance. Nor do I have any intuition as to whether DeLaurier will play even the ~5-8 minutes possible as Tatum's sub. I also don't have a preference as to whether or not DeLaurier gets playing time. I was just noting that the reason DeLaurier played 7 minutes against Louisville was because the team wanted a PF to sub in for Tatum, and DeLaurier is the only healthy college PF we have on the roster other than Tatum. So I could see a scenario where we are in a similar position in this game, even though Miami does play smaller than Louisville.

CDu
01-20-2017, 02:48 PM
THANKS! Your previews of opponents are very informative. Unfortunately:

I'm sure someone around here will give me an assist.


Agreed and done.


Done twice.

Thanks for the kind words from each of you. Sporks not necessary. Just hearing/reading that these types of posts are worthwhile to at least some is plenty.

superdave
01-20-2017, 02:52 PM
Grayson seems like the tripping maelstrom has hardened and focused him. I thought he played really well without sacrificing what makes him tic. That was a brutal atmosphere and he was more than game. It's easy to forget that pre-Elon, he was hurt most of the time. He looks right, which is big.

Harry is coming on, he looked springy at times, and I am noticing pretty solid progress with each game.



I agree on Grayson. His move to point seems to have him focused on making plays first, getting his shot second, and playing energetic d.

As for Giles, I am interested in hearing what others think. Will he round into 10 and 6 every game the next few games? We need him to produce every single game, rather than just give us flashes.

CDu
01-20-2017, 02:58 PM
I agree on Grayson. His move to point seems to have him focused on making plays first, getting his shot second, and playing energetic d.

As for Giles, I am interested in hearing what others think. Will he round into 10 and 6 every game the next few games? We need him to produce every single game, rather than just give us flashes.

I think he's more likely to get to 8 and 8 than 10 and 6. Right now, his rebounding seems to be well ahead of his offense.

But the biggest thing he needs to do is be useful on the floor. Right now, between fouls and his struggles defending away from the basket (especially on ball screens), he makes it hard to keep him on the floor. Jeter is clearly ahead of Giles in terms of defensive rotations and court awareness. Unfortunately, Jeter is not nearly as good a rebounder and is way less confident on offense. But Giles' mistakes on defense make it hard to keep him on the floor.

That being said, if Giles' awareness and footwork defensively improve, the rebounds are going to pile up. Because the one thing he has done fairly consistently since getting on the floor is rebound.

As to whether or not he gets there? Unfortunately, I don't think there is any way to know. He's starting from so far behind that who knows when or if he will catch up.

Spanarkel
01-20-2017, 04:34 PM
Perhaps, but Louisville is unique in that they play 2 bigs 100% of the time. So when Tatum was out of the game, Duke's choice was either to play four guards or match Louisville by playing a true PF in Javin. We decided to play Javin, obviously. But not sure we continue to do so against most opponents. And, of course, when Amile is back, Javin probably doesn't play.

You're most likely correct, but I am pre-emptively picking Javin for "Poor Man's MOTM" against Miami: 6 points(2 alley-oop dunks/1 pick-six steal and dunk), 5 rebounds, 2 blocks, 1 charge taken and 1(pick-six)steal, with only 1 foul, crammed into 11 minutes! Agree that we just have to take a step forward tomorrow night as a team.

BandAlum83
01-20-2017, 04:57 PM
Ranking the remaining games in terms of difficulty (easiest to toughest):

1. Feb. 18 -- Wake Forest at Duke
2. Jan. 21 -- Miami at Duke
3. Jan. 23 -- N.C. State at Duke (I think State is a little more talented than Miami)
4. Feb. 11 -- Clemson at Duke
5. Feb. 4 -- Pitt at Duke
6. Jan. 28 -- Duke at Wake Forest
7. Feb. 28 -- Florida State at Duke
8. Feb. 22 -- Duke at Syracuse
9. Feb. 25 -- Duke at Miami
10. Feb. 9 -- North Carolina at Duke
11. Feb. 15 -- Duke at Virginia
12. Mar. 4 -- Duke at UNC
13. Jan. 28 -- Duke at Notre Dame

I understand some might flip the last two, but look at the record -- we've had MUCH more recent success in Chapel Hill (winning four of the last five there) than in South Bend (0-2 since they joined the league).

Of course, that's just based on the strength of our opponents and the locations of the games. It doesn't take into account who Duke does or doesn't have in the lineup

If this is based on difficulty, where do you put the over / under line for victories?
between 9 & 10? 10 & 11?

better? worse?

Skydog
01-20-2017, 05:33 PM
If this is based on difficulty, where do you put the over / under line for victories?
between 9 & 10? 10 & 11?

better? worse?

I think Kenpom's prediction of Duke ending up 10-8 in the ACC is a pretty good prediction and fits the list pretty well. We likely win the 1st five on Olympic Fans list and then need to win 3 of the last 8 to reach that mark.

Skydog
01-20-2017, 05:50 PM
Just to be clear, I fully expect that if Jefferson is out that Tatum will play exclusively at the 4. And he'll play the vast majority of the game. This is just a question of the minutes that he is out. If Tatum is out and Miami has Murphy at the 4, I can see the team possibly going to DeLaurier for a few minutes. If Tatum is out and Lawrence is at the 4, I could see the team going with Jones at the 4.

I definitely don't expect major minutes for DeLaurier in any reasonable circumstance. Nor do I have any intuition as to whether DeLaurier will play even the ~5-8 minutes possible as Tatum's sub. I also don't have a preference as to whether or not DeLaurier gets playing time. I was just noting that the reason DeLaurier played 7 minutes against Louisville was because the team wanted a PF to sub in for Tatum, and DeLaurier is the only healthy college PF we have on the roster other than Tatum. So I could see a scenario where we are in a similar position in this game, even though Miami does play smaller than Louisville.
One area DeLaurier has to improve big time - so far he has turned the ball over on 41% of his possessions! Very small sample size because he hasn't played much and he doesn't get the ball very often when he does play. But something to watch with him.

Also problematic is that our other young big men Jeter and Bolden both turn the ball over on 31% of their possessions. The rest of our regular players are in the 12%(Kennard, Giles)->18%(Tatum) turnover range.

CDu
01-20-2017, 07:39 PM
If this is based on difficulty, where do you put the over / under line for victories?
between 9 & 10? 10 & 11?

better? worse?


I think Kenpom's prediction of Duke ending up 10-8 in the ACC is a pretty good prediction and fits the list pretty well. We likely win the 1st five on Olympic Fans list and then need to win 3 of the last 8 to reach that mark.

I think this exercise is super hard to get right without knowing when Coach and Jefferson return. It would be hard enough to do with just the roster as is, because surely the freshmen will start catching up.

If Jefferson and Coach return within the next couple of games, I could see us doing as well as 13-15 wins. If it takes weeks more for each to get back? Anywhere from 8-12 wins seems possible. That leaves quite a range of potential outcomes.

The "simple answer might be to take the middle (11-12 wins). But it is hard to say without that key bit of injury news.

Wahoo2000
01-20-2017, 08:12 PM
I think this exercise is super hard to get right without knowing when Coach and Jefferson return. It would be hard enough to do with just the roster as is, because surely the freshmen will start catching up.

If Jefferson and Coach return within the next couple of games, I could see us doing as well as 13-15 wins. If it takes weeks more for each to get back? Anywhere from 8-12 wins seems possible. That leaves quite a range of potential outcomes.

The "simple answer might be to take the middle (11-12 wins). But it is hard to say without that key bit of injury news.

I think you guys get a lot better with the return of Jefferson and K, but even with them back to 100% right away, is winning out (15 wins) really feasible? I think even if Duke was everything they were thought to be in the preseason, they wouldn't be expected to go undefeated in ACC play (and the most difficult games on your schedule are still to come).

I'd think that even with Jefferson 100%, K feeling great, Allen back to last year's form, and Giles playing like a lottery pick - you'd still drop at least one game somewhere. More of a statistics and probability issue than anything else. Even if you're 90% favorite to win every time out, you'd be expected to drop at least 1 out of 10 games.

I do think you guys will finish better than 10-8 though, mostly because those kenpom predictions are solely based on how you've played so far, and you're likely to improve between now and the end of the year. Might be too late to catch UNC or FSU for the regular season crown though if they continue to play as strong as they have so far.

I still say 13-5 is at least a tie for the regular season crown.

CDu
01-20-2017, 08:50 PM
I think you guys get a lot better with the return of Jefferson and K, but even with them back to 100% right away, is winning out (15 wins) really feasible? I think even if Duke was everything they were thought to be in the preseason, they wouldn't be expected to go undefeated in ACC play (and the most difficult games on your schedule are still to come).

I'd think that even with Jefferson 100%, K feeling great, Allen back to last year's form, and Giles playing like a lottery pick - you'd still drop at least one game somewhere. More of a statistics and probability issue than anything else. Even if you're 90% favorite to win every time out, you'd be expected to drop at least 1 out of 10 games.

I do think you guys will finish better than 10-8 though, mostly because those kenpom predictions are solely based on how you've played so far, and you're likely to improve between now and the end of the year. Might be too late to catch UNC or FSU for the regular season crown though if they continue to play as strong as they have so far.

I still say 13-5 is at least a tie for the regular season crown.

15 is obviously if everything falls just right. I said 13-15 for a reason. Obviously 15 is not the likely outcome. But if Jefferson is healthy very soon, I think we are a good bit deeper and more talented than everyone rlse. Especially as the freshmen catch up.

Do I think we go 15-3? No. Do I think it is possible? Yes.

jv001
01-20-2017, 10:13 PM
I think you guys get a lot better with the return of Jefferson and K, but even with them back to 100% right away, is winning out (15 wins) really feasible? I think even if Duke was everything they were thought to be in the preseason, they wouldn't be expected to go undefeated in ACC play (and the most difficult games on your schedule are still to come).

I'd think that even with Jefferson 100%, K feeling great, Allen back to last year's form, and Giles playing like a lottery pick - you'd still drop at least one game somewhere. More of a statistics and probability issue than anything else. Even if you're 90% favorite to win every time out, you'd be expected to drop at least 1 out of 10 games.

I do think you guys will finish better than 10-8 though, mostly because those kenpom predictions are solely based on how you've played so far, and you're likely to improve between now and the end of the year. Might be too late to catch UNC or FSU for the regular season crown though if they continue to play as strong as they have so far.

I still say 13-5 is at least a tie for the regular season crown.

In that case(bolded), I say: GoFSU!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GoDuke!!!!!

Olympic Fan
01-21-2017, 12:08 AM
In that case(bolded), I say: GoFSU!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GoDuke!!!!!

Why not Notre Dame?

Kedsy
01-21-2017, 12:17 AM
Why not Notre Dame?

Why not Duke? We're 2.5 games out of first place with a whole lotta bball to be played.

MChambers
01-21-2017, 08:42 AM
Why not Duke? We're 2.5 games out of first place with a whole lotta bball to be played.

No kidding. I'm optimistic we can still win the conference.

WakeDevil
01-21-2017, 09:27 AM
Why not Notre Dame?


You can have ND, Syracuse, BC and Pitt. I do not count them as being in the league.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
01-21-2017, 09:30 AM
You can have ND, Syracuse, BC and Pitt. I do not count them as being in the league.

How do you feel about VaTech? FSU? GaTech?

OldPhiKap
01-21-2017, 09:39 AM
Love Mike Brey. But until ND joins the ACC in all sports, they ain't a conference school.

NM Duke Fan
01-21-2017, 09:43 AM
I think you guys get a lot better with the return of Jefferson and K, but even with them back to 100% right away, is winning out (15 wins) really feasible? I think even if Duke was everything they were thought to be in the preseason, they wouldn't be expected to go undefeated in ACC play (and the most difficult games on your schedule are still to come).

I'd think that even with Jefferson 100%, K feeling great, Allen back to last year's form, and Giles playing like a lottery pick - you'd still drop at least one game somewhere. More of a statistics and probability issue than anything else. Even if you're 90% favorite to win every time out, you'd be expected to drop at least 1 out of 10 games.

I do think you guys will finish better than 10-8 though, mostly because those kenpom predictions are solely based on how you've played so far, and you're likely to improve between now and the end of the year. Might be too late to catch UNC or FSU for the regular season crown though if they continue to play as strong as they have so far.

I still say 13-5 is at least a tie for the regular season crown.

I agree with you and I suspect somewhere around 12-6 is more likely, but I would love to be wrong! But I would not enjoy being wrong on the downside of this prediction, 10 and 8 would be indicative of a team still finding its way too much in my opinion. The most important thing, however, is how they are playing at the end of the season, and what degree of growth and cohesion has happened over the rest of the ACC season. And then it is the start of a whole new season.

Spanarkel
01-21-2017, 10:23 AM
One area DeLaurier has to improve big time - so far he has turned the ball over on 41% of his possessions! Very small sample size because he hasn't played much and he doesn't get the ball very often when he does play. But something to watch with him.

Also problematic is that our other young big men Jeter and Bolden both turn the ball over on 31% of their possessions. The rest of our regular players are in the 12%(Kennard, Giles)->18%(Tatum) turnover range.

I am not disputing(simply questioning)this TO stat on JD: official stats on JD from GoDuke.com show him to have committed 8 TOs in 83 minutes so far this season. He's credited with 23 rebounds(=23 possessions), 10 shots from the field(=10 possessions), and 4 FTs(meaning at least 2 more, and possibly 3 more, possessions as he's made 1/4 FTs and could have missed the front end of a 1 and 1). So, at a minimum, he appears to have had a bare minimum of 35 possessions, not counting times when he was passed the ball on offense and was able to successfully pass it back to a teammate without a TO(an action that happens >>100 times per game). How does this translate into his committing TOs on 41% of his possessions? Even ignoring the catch and pass back situations for the sake of this discussion, his highest TO ratio appears to be 8/35, or 23%. I am not sure how else the TO percent could be accurately calculated, but I may be missing something here. And I will add that JD seems to be saddled with the game officials' unofficial designated walker/fouler/charger target("since he just checked into the game, he must be walking/fouling, etc.").

CDu
01-21-2017, 10:58 AM
I am not disputing(simply questioning)this TO stat on JD: official stats on JD from GoDuke.com show him to have committed 8 TOs in 83 minutes so far this season. He's credited with 23 rebounds(=23 possessions), 10 shots from the field(=10 possessions), and 4 FTs(meaning at least 2 more, and possibly 3 more, possessions as he's made 1/4 FTs and could have missed the front end of a 1 and 1). So, at a minimum, he appears to have had a bare minimum of 35 possessions, not counting times when he was passed the ball on offense and was able to successfully pass it back to a teammate without a TO(an action that happens >>100 times per game). How does this translate into his committing TOs on 41% of his possessions? Even ignoring the catch and pass back situations for the sake of this discussion, his highest TO ratio appears to be 8/35, or 23%. I am not sure how else the TO percent could be accurately calculated, but I may be missing something here. And I will add that JD seems to be saddled with the game officials' unofficial designated walker/fouler/charger target("since he just checked into the game, he must be walking/fouling, etc.").

That isn't how possessions are "officially" measured. They are measured in terms of ends of possessions. So, turnovers, shots (made or missed), fouls drawn. Obviously everyone has more touches than shots, turnovers, and fouls drawn. But the measure doesn't take into account every touch a player has.

OldPhiKap
01-21-2017, 11:04 AM
Jay Bilas' last tweet, for those interested:

"Duke is young and ridiculously talented, with 8 players and 1 coach missing games to injury. Improved D and PG play away from a Final Four."

Rich
01-21-2017, 11:51 AM
Jay Bilas' last tweet, for those interested:

"Duke is young and ridiculously talented, with 8 players and 1 coach missing games to injury. Improved D and PG play away from a Final Four."

Considering we don't really have a point guard (I know, K doesn't assign names to positions), I believe we've seen the best we're going to see from Allen and Jackson. Don't get me wrong, I think what we've seen has been fine and enough to get us where we need to go, but I don't see us improving a great deal in this area this year. As others have said ad nauseum, the biggest need for improvement is in defense around the basket, especially help coverage when the guards get beat. If we start playing better in that one area -- and I saw improvement in the second half of the L-ville game -- we become a different team. Obviously, Amile has a big role in this.

MrPoon
01-21-2017, 12:08 PM
I for one am really looking forward to this game tonight.

We will look back and not be too disapointed in the two losses of last week. Two quality, defensive minded teams, on the road for a young, developing team is a big ask in ACC play and I suspect both teams will acquit themselves well for most of the year.

The extended layoff ought to help a number of issues. The lack of travel will help K be more involved in healing (most importantly) and game planning. Same goes for Amil's foot.

With or without them, I suspect we will see a significant step in the right direction in the following areas:

1) Pace of play. Our lack of a true, make plays for others first player (we don't play positions so I won't say "PG") means pushing the ball will help our O. GA has clearly been asked to play a much larger roll in recently this while Jackson continues to adjust to ACC play (and maybe getting healthy). A week of team practice will greatly help Allan and everyone in anticipating his approach. I also think practice and continuity will help cut back on turnovers on the O side, which will be vital long term. We are also asking Tatum to bring up the ball more (although I think that was because the full court pressing LU did), more practice will help Tatum be more decisive in this roll if we continue to use him that way.

2) The interior. This applies to both sides of the game. I keep waiting for Giles to become the Giles of lore. In hindsight, this is my fault. Articles and commentaries about a player's past greatness but without any clearity on his recovery are a distraction and cause me to place unfair expectations. I want to enjoy this young mans' journey to recovery, however that shapes up. However, FSU and LU's physical style was a good lesson but a very hard one. Giles will get more training and confidence from a good week of practice, working with the playmaker version of Allen and a home crowd. This stretch will pay dividends. More awareness of the D-system and positioning on O.

I also think the practice time will help with Bolden's development. I still don't expect a ton from him but five to ten mins helping spell Giles and Jeter with maybe 4 and 2 would be really nice to see. Jeter will be a solid defender at some point in his time at Duke. Maybe not all the way there this year but I see a real desire to be better and with this coaching staff, and again with this layoff, I suspect a step forward, maybe two from Jeter.

For me, I don't see as much from Javin yet.

3. Team D. This is obviously the area of most needed improvement. The lack of continuity has meant we couldn't get better here. We all have seen and discussed our difficencies at pick and roll, ball screen D. That has to get better. Two years ago, we stopped a run of losses with a road win against LU using zone. I thought we'd see the same last week but clearly didn't over any extended time. I suspect that is again because of the lack of continuity to practice the zone. This team's length ought to make it a good zone team if pressed by interior foul trouble. But Caple doesn't trust it yet. He probably would live with the rebounding problems zone's often have if we weren't turning the ball over, but both is just too few possessions. My hope is that Giles and Jeter get better here and Bolden can spell them enough. Improvement in health will allow Jones to shift down to the second unit and that will help solidify that group's communication and D.

4. Tatum. Unlike many on this board; I LOVE Tatum. LOVE him. Yes he has stretches where he goes quiet from the offensive side. For me, he and Jabari are the most natural obvious NBA players I've seen in blue in a while. Yes, the ball sticks to him at times. Yes he overthinks his offense and makes the locational easy play harder. And yes he's his passing is incosistant and has led to easy scores going the other way. But his effort and length on D is there and is getting better. He has vision and with coaching, the skill and ability will increasingly fit in the team dynamic. To me he's a more natural player than even Ingram but last year we built the offense around Ingram iso plays. Tatum hasn't had that luxury so he's had to fit in around Allan and Luke. He will more and more. Plus Allan and Luke are very willing passers, this too will help Tatum develop in the team context (he needs to be willing too). Even if we get oustscored inside (but not so lopsided as recently) if Tatum, Allan and Luke are playing unified offense, makeing easy scores for each other. We will win a lot of more games. And that starts with Miami.... and will.

I think the number is around 9.5 and I'd take the over.

BandAlum83
01-21-2017, 01:01 PM
Love Mike Brey. But until ND joins the ACC in all sports, they ain't a conference school.

Is it possible that we shouldn't be as concerned about our second half performance against BC as we have been? Maybe thinking that we aren't too good without Amile is a bit too harsh.


UNC 34
BC 33 Halftime

Unless UNC just has a tough time with bad teams

drummerdevil
01-21-2017, 01:06 PM
Is it possible that we shouldn't be as concerned about our second half performance against BC as we have been? Maybe thinking that we aren't too good without Amile is a bit too harsh.


UNC 34
BC 33 Halftime

Unless UNC just has a tough time with bad teams

Hoping that's just UNC has a tough time with every team. Go BC!

Spanarkel
01-21-2017, 01:19 PM
That isn't how possessions are "officially" measured. They are measured in terms of ends of possessions. So, turnovers, shots (made or missed), fouls drawn. Obviously everyone has more touches than shots, turnovers, and fouls drawn. But the measure doesn't take into account every touch a player has.

The TO% formula is: 100 x TO/(FGA + (0.44 x FTA) + TO). Not sure that I put much faith in a formula that has the same variable(TO) in both the numerator and denominator. The second best way to "earn" a low TO% would be to shoot a lot. Javin is not typically inserted in the game to shoot(, cognizant of fact that most of his 83 minutes to date have been in mop-up duty). I submit we use either the eyeball test("Jayson looks like he turns the ball over a lot," and to date he has)or turnovers per minute played. At Javin's current rate of about 1 turnover for every 10 minutes of burn, if the entire team had the same rate, that would amount to 20 turnovers per game which is clearly too many, but as the original commentator on this topic(Skydog) correctly pointed out, Javin's minutes are a small sample size. I know most posters on the board don't foresee Javin getting many minutes but I remain hopeful. Go Duke!

Kedsy
01-21-2017, 01:31 PM
The TO% formula is: 100 x TO/(FGA + (0.44 x FTA) + TO). Not sure that I put much faith in a formula that has the same variable(TO) in both the numerator and denominator.

A team possession either ends with a shot or a free throw or a turnover, so in that context having TOs in both the numerator and the denominator makes perfect sense, there's nothing wrong with that at all.

The real problem with the TO% formula is it doesn't take into account when you pass the ball to someone else, because a personal possession (as opposed to a team poss) often ends that way. Non-assist passes aren't a publicly kept stat, so I understand why that's not part of the formula. Personally, I think they ought to include assists, though. The rationale I've read for not including them is whoever invented the formula wanted it to be the same for team and individual, which to me doesn't make a lot of sense.

In any event, Javin doesn't get many assists (he has exactly one assist for the season), so my idea wouldn't make any difference for him. Assuming he passes around the perimeter (or after a rebound) at a similar rate as our other players (no way to confirm that, but it's as good an assumption as any), the fact that his TO% is sooooo much higher than anybody else on the team is significant (with the caveat of the low sample size). Even if not perfect, it's a much better indicator than the eye test, IMO.

rsvman
01-21-2017, 01:32 PM
No rational reason to discount a formula just because it has the same variable in both the denominator and the numerator. They clearly don't cancel out.

Neals384
01-21-2017, 01:47 PM
I am not disputing(simply questioning)this TO stat on JD: official stats on JD from GoDuke.com show him to have committed 8 TOs in 83 minutes so far this season. He's credited with 23 rebounds(=23 possessions), 10 shots from the field(=10 possessions), and 4 FTs(meaning at least 2 more, and possibly 3 more, possessions as he's made 1/4 FTs and could have missed the front end of a 1 and 1). So, at a minimum, he appears to have had a bare minimum of 35 possessions, not counting times when he was passed the ball on offense and was able to successfully pass it back to a teammate without a TO(an action that happens >>100 times per game). How does this translate into his committing TOs on 41% of his possessions? Even ignoring the catch and pass back situations for the sake of this discussion, his highest TO ratio appears to be 8/35, or 23%. I am not sure how else the TO percent could be accurately calculated, but I may be missing something here. And I will add that JD seems to be saddled with the game officials' unofficial designated walker/fouler/charger target("since he just checked into the game, he must be walking/fouling, etc.").

Here's the formula:
TOV / (FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV)
8 / (10 + 0.44*4 + 8) = 40.48%

So those 23 rebounds do not count in the formula. It may not be entirely fair stat, since a player who is mainly a defender, and rarely shoots or goes to the free throw line, may have a high TO% without really being turnover-prone.

uh_no
01-21-2017, 01:58 PM
Not sure that I put much faith in a formula that has the same variable(TO) in both the numerator and denominator.

I'm not sure why this would surprise you, as it must be true for any probability (or by extension, percentages). The probability of an event occuring is the number of times a given event occurred divided by the sum of the number of times all events in the event space occurred. Since the event MUST be in the event space for it to have a non-zero probability, you have to find the numerator in the denominator.

Often times the denominator is aggregated and called something else which hides the numerator, but on closer inspection, it's always there.

Winning percentage? wins/game right? but games played is wins + losses.
Batting average? hits/ABs? ABs is hits + (non-sacrificial) outs.
Turnover percentage? Turnovers / posessions...where posessions is FGA + fouls (estimated for simplicity by .44 * FTA) + TOs.

Skydog
01-21-2017, 04:00 PM
A team possession either ends with a shot or a free throw or a turnover, so in that context having TOs in both the numerator and the denominator makes perfect sense, there's nothing wrong with that at all.

The real problem with the TO% formula is it doesn't take into account when you pass the ball to someone else, because a personal possession (as opposed to a team poss) often ends that way. Non-assist passes aren't a publicly kept stat, so I understand why that's not part of the formula. Personally, I think they ought to include assists, though. The rationale I've read for not including them is whoever invented the formula wanted it to be the same for team and individual, which to me doesn't make a lot of sense.

In any event, Javin doesn't get many assists (he has exactly one assist for the season), so my idea wouldn't make any difference for him. Assuming he passes around the perimeter (or after a rebound) at a similar rate as our other players (no way to confirm that, but it's as good an assumption as any), the fact that his TO% is sooooo much higher than anybody else on the team is significant (with the caveat of the low sample size). Even if not perfect, it's a much better indicator than the eye test, IMO.

Interesting discussion Kedsy (and others) since I've never thought much about what Kenpoms turnover % actually measures. Intuitively it sounds like a measure of how often a player commits a turnover after receiving the ball. But as several of you pointed out the formula shows that instead TO% is the proportion of the player's possession-ending plays that are turnovers. So as pointed out above - if a player (like Javin) seldom shoots or draw fouls then his TO% can be misleading since the denominator is so small (very few fg/ft attempts).

Hypothetical extreme example for illustrative purposes. Half of our team is injured/suspended so Javin is given 35 minutes and plays the game of his life - 15 rebounds (8 offensive), 10 blocks, 8 assists, 5 steals and 1 turnover. He obviously helped our possession game tremendously with his offensive boards, blocks and steals and his 8/1 assist to turnover ratio. But if for some reason he took no shots in this game his TO%=100%. He used up 1 possession - with a turnover. But if otoh he got carried away and also threw up four 3pt bricks in the game that were rebounded by our opponent his TO% would actually improve to a much more respectable 20% (1 turnover/5 possessions used) even though his missed shots hurt us.

So even though I brought it up not I'm not sure the TO% stat is that helpful in evaluating players who seldom shoot (high TO% is still very bad for a player who uses a normal # of possessions).

For Javin turnovers/min (or 40 min) played might be less misleading. And on that stat he is currently at 3.6 TO/40 minutes played so he needs to work that # down.

CDu
01-21-2017, 04:09 PM
uh_no and kedsy are right. It is a probability. As such, it inherently MUST include the numerator in the denominator.

And as kedsy noted, TO% is certainly a flawed metric in that it implicitly punishes pass-first guys. Guys who don't shoot but handle the ball and make plays via passing are hurt by this formula.

That being said, DeLaurier isn't really a passing player. When he gets the ball on offense it is usually going to the basket. So while his turnover ratio is inflated, it is probably closer to accurate for him than for, say, a PG. As a big man who isn't asked to create for himself or others, his turnover ratio is way too high.

-bdbd
01-21-2017, 04:12 PM
It just feels to me that Duke, emotionally, is ready for a turnaround. They've had seven days to sit and stew over two straight losses, and more specifically, two games with terrible defense. That's also seven days to practice ball screen defense (you listening Harry??!), focus on Miami, and to heal.

I also think a young team like this is helped more than your average squad by playing at home in front of what will likely be a raucous crowd.

Expect Miami's excellent HC to help keep it close into the second half, when Duke puts on a run to effectively put it away. Will be disappointed if Duke wins by less than 6.

This team NEEDS a win right now.

Sixthman
01-21-2017, 05:11 PM
It just feels to me that Duke, emotionally, is ready for a turnaround. They've had seven days to sit and stew over two straight losses, and more specifically, two games with terrible defense. That's also seven days to practice ball screen defense (you listening Harry??!), focus on Miami, and to heal.

I also think a young team like this is helped more than your average squad by playing at home in front of what will likely be a raucous crowd.

Expect Miami's excellent HC to help keep it close into the second half, when Duke puts on a run to effectively put it away. Will be disappointed if Duke wins by less than 6.

This team NEEDS a win right now.

To me one of the missing pieces for this team is getting the freshmen to play with mental toughness and baseline to baseline energy -- in effect, to play Duke basketball. I think no one models this better than Amile and his absence has hurt team development in this respect. This is all that is missing from Tatum's game, and while Giles still has a long way to go, this intensity would immediately earn him playing time and end speculation as to whether or not he can be a major contributor this year. I'm looking for Duke basketball tonight.

drummerdevil
01-21-2017, 05:23 PM
Here's what I'm hoping for from each of the players:

Amile: Come back
Tatum: pick your shots more carefully. You have teammates now, man! Also, play better defense
Giles: Play better defense and show more energy on offense
Bolden: Step it up and play good defense
Jackson: Be more involved
Kennard: Pretty much just do what you do best: score in a variety of ways and play good defense
Jeter: Play good post defense. I cannot emphasize this enough.
Allen: Play the point
Jones: Hit your shots
K: Come back
And finally, the whole team: get the "W"!

sagegrouse
01-21-2017, 05:37 PM
No rational reason to discount a formula just because it has the same variable in both the denominator and the numerator. They clearly don't cancel out.

Yep. That's what "percent" is -- 100 x a /(a+b)

DukeBlue666s
01-21-2017, 05:41 PM
Heard anything on Amile's status for tonight? Or Coach?

WakeDevil
01-21-2017, 05:53 PM
I ran into points per possession a quarter of a century in a Dean Smith book. He made it overly complicated, especially the part about free throws. You almost needed the PBP to figure it out.

superdave
01-21-2017, 05:57 PM
It just feels to me that Duke, emotionally, is ready for a turnaround. They've had seven days to sit and stew over two straight losses, and more specifically, two games with terrible defense. That's also seven days to practice ball screen defense (you listening Harry??!), focus on Miami, and to heal.

I also think a young team like this is helped more than your average squad by playing at home in front of what will likely be a raucous crowd.

Expect Miami's excellent HC to help keep it close into the second half, when Duke puts on a run to effectively put it away. Will be disappointed if Duke wins by less than 6.

This team NEEDS a win right now.

I agree that this team has likely been stewing, and needs a win. But there's so much up in the air and some big, missing pieces. So I dont that we have turned a corner just yet. There's a good chance this team needs to slough off the dysfunction and may not be there yet. We may learn a lot about this team tonight and we may not.

Chances are this team has a good run in them. I suspect it wont really start for a few more weeks. But I am usually never right, so......

superdave
01-21-2017, 05:59 PM
Heard anything on Amile's status for tonight? Or Coach?

Both are alive and cheering for Duke tonight. That's all we know.

Spanarkel
01-21-2017, 05:59 PM
Interesting discussion Kedsy (and others) since I've never thought much about what Kenpoms turnover % actually measures. Intuitively it sounds like a measure of how often a player commits a turnover after receiving the ball. But as several of you pointed out the formula shows that instead TO% is the proportion of the player's possession-ending plays that are turnovers. So as pointed out above - if a player (like Javin) seldom shoots or draw fouls then his TO% can be misleading since the denominator is so small (very few fg/ft attempts).

Hypothetical extreme example for illustrative purposes. Half of our team is injured/suspended so Javin is given 35 minutes and plays the game of his life - 15 rebounds (8 offensive), 10 blocks, 8 assists, 5 steals and 1 turnover. He obviously helped our possession game tremendously with his offensive boards, blocks and steals and his 8/1 assist to turnover ratio. But if for some reason he took no shots in this game his TO%=100%. He used up 1 possession - with a turnover. But if otoh he got carried away and also threw up four 3pt bricks in the game that were rebounded by our opponent his TO% would actually improve to a much more respectable 20% (1 turnover/5 possessions used) even though his missed shots hurt us.

So even though I brought it up not I'm not sure the TO% stat is that helpful in evaluating players who seldom shoot (high TO% is still very bad for a player who uses a normal # of possessions).

For Javin turnovers/min (or 40 min) played might be less misleading. And on that stat he is currently at 3.6 TO/40 minutes played so he needs to work that # down.

Very well stated. Just curious, does your "Skydog" posting handle have its origin in the former UGA guard Eric "Sky Dog" Marbury's nickname?

BandAlum83
01-21-2017, 06:02 PM
Heard anything on Amile's status for tonight? Or Coach?

Monitoring Twitter. Nothing yet

duketaylor
01-21-2017, 06:10 PM
Please, anybody in CIS early, please report, is K there? Is Amile in uniform and warming up as normal?
Thx, GO DEVILS!!!!!

uh_no
01-21-2017, 06:55 PM
amile in shoot around

DavidBenAkiva
01-21-2017, 06:56 PM
amile in shoot around

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

It was 60 degrees and sunny in Chicago and now this. What a day!

chrishoke
01-21-2017, 06:57 PM
Amile is warming up

Furniture
01-21-2017, 06:57 PM
Amrith Ramkumar‏ @AmrithRamkumar (https://mobile.twitter.com/AmrithRamkumar)
Amile Jefferson in uniform and warming up tonight for Duke

Furniture
01-21-2017, 06:58 PM
http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=7093&stc=1

DBFAN
01-21-2017, 07:01 PM
Tweet just said he is going to try and play thru the pain tonight

tulsuduke
01-21-2017, 07:04 PM
Duke basketball Facebook page posted a pic of AJ with the caption "The captain is back."

TruBlu
01-21-2017, 07:26 PM
Amile moving really well in warmups!!!

-jk
01-21-2017, 07:28 PM
DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox) is open!

If it gets a bit slow, refresh the page. If you're on a mobile device, you'll need to select "Blue" at the bottom.

As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines.

Let's Go Duke!

-jk

duketaylor
01-21-2017, 07:31 PM
Beautimous!!:eek:

riverside6
01-21-2017, 08:09 PM
Live tempo-based stats for Duke/Miami, starters posted...

http://www.scacchoops.com/miami-at-duke-basketball-live-stats-01212017

Edouble
01-21-2017, 08:11 PM
Duke basketball Facebook page posted a pic of AJ with the caption "The captain is back."

Yep!

7094

Troublemaker
01-21-2017, 08:12 PM
Deja Vu for Miami?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNG4EfjaP4o

wavedukefan70s
01-21-2017, 08:33 PM
Very physical game on the guards.

WiJoe
01-21-2017, 08:42 PM
I'd rather listen to Elmore than bilas. Most arrogant man on the air.

VA_BDevil
01-21-2017, 08:49 PM
My better half asks every game, but I don't know the answer - who is being honored/memorialized with KB patch on the jerseys?

WiJoe
01-21-2017, 08:59 PM
former president Keith Brodie

El_Diablo
01-21-2017, 09:00 PM
My better half asks every game, but I don't know the answer - who is being honored/memorialized with KB patch on the jerseys?

Keith Brodie

FerryFor50
01-21-2017, 09:00 PM
Duke's not playing well, but good lord is game chat unbearable.

MartyClark
01-21-2017, 09:00 PM
Somebody needs to do something here. The game is getting away from Duke.

Bolden has looked pretty good. That's the only positive I have.

DUKIE V(A)
01-21-2017, 09:00 PM
Overhelping on ball. Leaving too many shooters wide open. Still feeling good about our chances. Just need to start hitting shots.

dairedevil
01-21-2017, 09:03 PM
Duke's not playing well, but good lord is game chat unbearable.

Game chat is almost always unbearable.

Kjeffrey
01-21-2017, 09:04 PM
Somebody needs to do something here. The game is getting away from Duke.

Bolden has looked pretty good. That's the only positive I have.

His defense has been significantly better than Tatum and Giles. Glad to see him playing better. Hopefully it boosts his confidence.

FerryFor50
01-21-2017, 09:04 PM
Game chat is almost always unbearable.

It's so much worse now. Just so much negativity and hand wringing. In the first half of a winnable game.

Kjeffrey
01-21-2017, 09:05 PM
Overhelping on ball. Leaving too many shooters wide open. Still feeling good about our chances. Just need to start hitting shots.

Reed is killing Duke. How can he be left wide open?

-jk
01-21-2017, 09:10 PM
Any idea what happened to Grayson's finger?

DU82
01-21-2017, 09:11 PM
Any idea what happened to Grayson's finger?

Jammed it when he fouled the Miami rebounder.

TruBlu
01-21-2017, 09:12 PM
Any idea what happened to Grayson's finger?

Looked like it was dislocated and popped back in by trainer.

FerryFor50
01-21-2017, 09:13 PM
Looked like it was dislocated and popped back in by trainer.

Dislocated. ESPN was kind enough to show us a freeze frame.

DBFAN
01-21-2017, 09:13 PM
This team is not getting any better

gocanes0506
01-21-2017, 09:15 PM
Duke is the most talented but they don't have the mentality to be a great team. The toll of the injuries may have severly bruised (pun may have been intented) the team. Adversity seems to beat the team.

CDu
01-21-2017, 09:17 PM
We shot 28.6% in the first half, and 0-8 from 3. That along with Miami making an extra 3 than they should have is the difference in this game.

Bolden has looked good, especially on the high ball screens. Giles and Tatum less so. And thus we continue to have trouble with the pick-and-roll.

Hope Allen's finger is ok.

Tripping William
01-21-2017, 09:18 PM
For this team (maybe all teams, but definitely this one), defense becomes a lot easier when shots fall. And shots certainly didn't fall that half.

DUKIE V(A)
01-21-2017, 09:18 PM
Recipe for a victory:

1. More shots by Luke, Grayson, and Tatum
2. Less open 3's
3. Limit second chance points

FerryFor50
01-21-2017, 09:20 PM
We shot 28.6% in the first half, and 0-8 from 3. That along with Miami making an extra 3 than they should have is the difference in this game.

Bolden has looked good, especially on the high ball screens. Giles and Tatum less so. And thus we continue to have trouble with the pick-and-roll.

Hope Allen's finger is ok.

Bolden's looked great. Very active feet. Very peppy after looking lethargic in all his other appearances.

DukeWarhead
01-21-2017, 09:21 PM
:mad:
I'm just befuddled. Totally. What the frick is happening this season???? I mean, wow.

dukelion
01-21-2017, 09:22 PM
It's pretty simple really....just playing terrible team basketball.

Defensive breakdown after breakdown and on offense almost zero ball movement and missing open shots.

Still think they'll grow out of it at some point but we're looking at a 10 loss team entering the tourney.

Spanarkel
01-21-2017, 09:23 PM
I'd rather listen to Elmore than bilas. Most arrogant man on the air.


I thought Bilas' comment after Grayson's finger injury was in poor taste(his reference to Anthony Munoz).

jv001
01-21-2017, 09:24 PM
We shot 28.6% in the first half, and 0-8 from 3. That along with Miami making an extra 3 than they should have is the difference in this game.

Bolden has looked good, especially on the high ball screens. Giles and Tatum less so. And thus we continue to have trouble with the pick-and-roll.Hope Allen's finger is ok.

Harry has looked bad on defense and I can't tell if it's physical or not up to speed in Duke's defense or if he's just a step slow. Tatum has not looked good in this game, but has shown he can defend in previous games. I'm liking what I see in Bolden tonight. It makes me wonder if his injury was holding him back. He does look quicker. We need a really good shooting half to get the win. I'd like to see some game pressure on Miami this half. They have confidence right now. Some good defensive stops might take away that confidence. GoDuke!

TruBlu
01-21-2017, 09:25 PM
Outrebounded. We had ONE assist in the first half. Ungood.

jv001
01-21-2017, 09:25 PM
I thought Bilas' comment after Grayson's finger injury was in poor taste(his reference to Anthony Munoz).

Jay's full of himself. GoDuke!

ArtVandelay
01-21-2017, 09:26 PM
We shot 28.6% in the first half, and 0-8 from 3. That along with Miami making an extra 3 than they should have is the difference in this game.

Bolden has looked good, especially on the high ball screens. Giles and Tatum less so. And thus we continue to have trouble with the pick-and-roll.

Hope Allen's finger is ok.

5 TOs to 1 assist doesn't help either. Although that's partly the result of shooting 28.6% from the field.

The thing is that it's not like we've just been missing easy shots (Grayson's bricked dunk off the opening tip notwithstanding). We've been taking contested threes and wild lay-up attempts in traffic. We have not been playing good offense. Seriously don't know why.

Coballs
01-21-2017, 09:26 PM
Still think they'll grow out of it at some point but we're looking at a 10 loss team entering the tourney.

What makes you think they'll grow out of it at some point? There have been zero signs of progress on the defensive end since ACC play began, and this team has completely regressed on offense. I'm trying hard to think of any reason to remain optimistic about this team, but can't come up with much at this point.

gillmic
01-21-2017, 09:27 PM
Would be nice if we could learn how to defend the pick and roll and block out. Maybe one of these seasons...it's been years, though.

FerryFor50
01-21-2017, 09:31 PM
Matt Jones is playing his tail off. Love it!

CDu
01-21-2017, 09:31 PM
Matt Jones.

Kjeffrey
01-21-2017, 09:33 PM
I am curious about the Kennard benching. I didn't notice anything in the first half. I saw some very suspect defense but not on his part.

kmspeaks
01-21-2017, 09:33 PM
Matt Jones doing Matt Jones things :)

CDu
01-21-2017, 09:35 PM
I am curious about the Kennard benching. I didn't notice anything in the first half. I saw some very suspect defense but not on his part.

I saw suspect defense on his part. But I think it has more to do with going with the guys putting in work on defense, rather than the guys that do just enough (or not enough) defensively.

Kjeffrey
01-21-2017, 09:36 PM
I saw suspect defense on his part. But I think it has more to do with going with the guys putting in work on defense, rather than the guys that do just enough (or not enough) defensively.

Tatum's defense falls in that category?

CDu
01-21-2017, 09:37 PM
Tatum's defense falls in that category?

You have to start five guys.

And it seems to be working.

FerryFor50
01-21-2017, 09:39 PM
You have to start five guys.

And it seems to be working.

Tatum has more length and athleticism than Luke and is on par as a scorer (though in a slump).

Duke needed Tatum's potential to alter shots and disrupt passing lanes, which he already displayed on a block of a Reed 3 this half.

ArtVandelay
01-21-2017, 09:40 PM
Do we think Grayson is out for the game? If so, that figures. It's a legit risk to bodily health stepping on the floor in a Duke jersey.

westwall
01-21-2017, 09:41 PM
[QUOTE=CDu;94331 it seems to be working.[/QUOTE]

It's the enthusiasm!

FerryFor50
01-21-2017, 09:41 PM
Do we think Grayson is out for the game? If so, that figures. It's a legit risk to bodily health stepping on the floor in a Duke jersey.

Announcers said he's healthy enough to play. But why change up a lineup that has clawed back to take the lead?

CDu
01-21-2017, 09:43 PM
This has been inspired play to start the half. Awesome!

ArtVandelay
01-21-2017, 09:44 PM
Announcers said he's healthy enough to play. But why change up a lineup that has clawed back to take the lead?

Oh, I missed that. Just noticed it's his non-shooting hand. I wasn't saying he should be in. I was wondering if he was injured or benched.

Don't mess with DeSoto Texas!

FerryFor50
01-21-2017, 09:45 PM
This is the Duke team we wanted to see all year. Let's hope the enthusiasm is contagious!

Kjeffrey
01-21-2017, 09:45 PM
You have to start five guys.

And it seems to be working.

Due in large part to Jones and Bolden. I asked the question because it seems that some players are given more leeway than others. Perhaps not but it looks that way to me.

CDu
01-21-2017, 09:46 PM
Due in large part to Jones and Bolden. I asked the question because it seems that some players are given more leeway than others. Perhaps not but it looks that way to me.

Kennard leads the team in minutes. I don't think he has suffered from not getting enough leeway.

gocanes0506
01-21-2017, 09:47 PM
Nothing like a good you ain't got it to get them going.

Man Matt Jones is killing it. Good to see him get out his funk

FerryFor50
01-21-2017, 09:47 PM
Bilas thinks Kennard fouled Miami on a box out, but didn't get fouled when he took a shoulder to the jaw on a post up. Got it.

Maybe Luke should have just flopped like I see every other post defender do when they get hit.

-jk
01-21-2017, 09:48 PM
Announcers said he's healthy enough to play. But why change up a lineup that has clawed back to take the lead?

Rest, and the tilde would adapt.

-jk

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
01-21-2017, 09:48 PM
Best Capel move yet - 2nd half starters.

BigZ
01-21-2017, 09:50 PM
Boldan maybe the key to this team bc when he is in the game it is the only time guys aren't playing out of position

MartyClark
01-21-2017, 09:50 PM
Best Capel move yet - 2nd half starters.

Yeah, crazy good move. I initially disagreed with this but Coach Capel knew made the right move.

FerryFor50
01-21-2017, 09:55 PM
The body language of this team is SO much better. They actually look like they're having fun and like each other.

FerryFor50
01-21-2017, 09:57 PM
Lip reading of Larrannaga:

"Can you believe this s**t?"

MartyClark
01-21-2017, 09:57 PM
Crazy game. Great 2nd half.

Kjeffrey
01-21-2017, 10:00 PM
Lip reading of Larrannaga:

"Can you believe this s**t?"

Someone mentioned that in chat but I thought they meant a player. Yikes! Good thing his mic wasn't on for that.

CDu
01-21-2017, 10:02 PM
33-7 in the first 13 minutes of the second half. Against a top-50 team. This is anazing.

Skydog
01-21-2017, 10:03 PM
Capel went from lost, helpless sheep failing his audition to genius in-game coach all w/i a few minutes. Amazing turnaround.

BigZ
01-21-2017, 10:12 PM
Nola's has mentioned Luke being a high school quarterback four separate times. I think he has lost his mind

dukefan_828
01-21-2017, 10:13 PM
Someone mentioned that in chat but I thought they meant a player. Yikes! Good thing his mic wasn't on for that.

Im sure K has whispered much worse on the bench before not a big deal, Larranaga is a great coach and runs a good program.