AP and Coaches' Polls

[sagegrouse]

Duke sinks in the polls to #18, sixth among the ACC ranked teams, following (AP) --
9. UNC
10. FSU (#12 in Coaches')
12. Louisville (#11 in Coaches')
15. Notre Dame
16. Virginia

Villanova #1 in AP and Kansas #1 in Coaches' poll. Duke is #11 in KenPom.

[dukelifer]

Duke sinks in the polls to #18, sixth among the ACC ranked teams, following (AP) --
9. UNC
10. FSU (#12 in Coaches')
12. Louisville (#11 in Coaches')
15. Notre Dame
16. Virginia

Villanova #1 in AP and Kansas #1 in Coaches' poll. Duke is #11 in KenPom.

It is what it is. When Duke gets healthy none of those 1 seeds will want to see Duke on the 4 line.

[OldPhiKap]

I think that's a fair read of where we are right now.

Lots of upside to climb. But first, gotta make sure we stop digging the hole.

[richardjackson199]

It is what it is. When Duke gets healthy none of those 1 seeds will want to see Duke on the 4 line.

And if Duke earns a 4, I wouldn't mind seeing Gonzaga on the 1. They are a very good team, as any 1 seed will be. But we will be MUCH more battle tested, and that could pay dividends in March.

Duke has earned a ranking of 18, for now. But lots of important hoops left to be played. Keep getting better and shore up our weaknesses. Our goal should be to just dominate people by March, or if we fall short of that - at least win.

First things first. Beat Miami. Larranaga loves beating Duke even more than most. His teams have been immensely prepared to beat us at home or on the road, and after he does, he often will stand on the court basking in the moment. Rest assured he would love nothing more than for Miami to kick us again while we are down. We better be ready for a war this weekend.

We owe that dude some payback this year, and there has never been a better time to come together and dish it out. We can beat Miami this year if we prepare and play our best.

[Devilwin]

There's only one team I'd rather beat than Miami....

[richardjackson199]

There's only one team I'd rather beat than Miami...

Agreed this year. Beat UNC 4 times, Miami, Notre Dame, and 6 teams in late March/April.

Grayson should play his game, but he probably needs to be extra careful this weekend. Expect a war, and no retaliation no matter what.

[jv001]

We're actually ranked about right. We have regressed in team play since the first of the season when the Tatum, Giles, Bolden and Grayson were injured. The difference was Amile was playing great and so was Kennard. We're going to need Amile back close to 100%, Tatum playing to his potential and Giles playing like we thought he would. I believe it will happen. GoDuke!

[subzero02]

It is what it is. When Duke gets healthy none of those 1 seeds will want to see Duke on the 4 line.

If the committee views us as the 18th best team in the contry, we'll be on the 5 line. For what it's worth, I don't think we'll be a 4 or a 5 seed. I think we'll be a 2 or 3 seed; Tatum is a smart guy and will refine his game on offense in the not too distant future.

[NYBri]

Hopefully, Amile will be helping out from under the basket and not the bench.

[wilko]

Not even remotely concerned about rank...
Would be happier to see Defensive improvement than a attain rank on smoke and mirrors.

If we can fix the D, the rest will take care of itself.

[Devilwin]

Exactly right. The defense is the big problem. Our opponents score at will inside. Fix that, we are fine. And we will fix it, if I know K.:)

[53n206]

Any guard, playing against us, who can throw the ball close to the basket will be rewarded with an assist by his forward who has been lounging, alone,near the basket.

[burnspbesq]

Certainly didn't expect to see the Duke women ranked higher than the men any time this season.

[BandAlum83]

Duke moves up to 17 in this week's poll.

6 ACC schools in the top 20, 2 in top 10.
FSU coming in at #6 (highest ever for FSU?) and UNC at #9
http://collegebasketball.ap.org/poll/2017/12?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP_Top25&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=college-basketball

[Olympic Fan]

Duke moves up to 17 in this week's poll.

6 ACC schools in the top 20, 2 in top 10.
FSU coming in at #6 (highest ever for FSU?) and UNC at #9
http://collegebasketball.ap.org/poll/2017/12?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP_Top25&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=college-basketball

I don't know about the weekly rankings, but FSU has twice finished No. 10 in the AP (1972 and 2012) and twice finished No. 11 (1970, 1993). Never higher than 10th at the finish.

[DBFAN]

One of the few times I haven't been concerned with a Duke ranking. I think deep down everyone knows that if this team keeps getting better with every game, that they will be one of if not the best team in the country. Also rivalry week is coming soon and there will be a lot of changes coming. There is also the benefit of the young guys playing with a chip on their shoulder, and not playing scared because of what is expected

[atoomer0881]

Duke moves up to 17 in this week's poll.

6 ACC schools in the top 20, 2 in top 10.
FSU coming in at #6 (highest ever for FSU?) and UNC at #9
http://collegebasketball.ap.org/poll/2017/12?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP_Top25&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=college-basketball


I don't know about the weekly rankings, but FSU has twice finished No. 10 in the AP (1972 and 2012) and twice finished No. 11 (1970, 1993). Never higher than 10th at the finish.

According to ESPN, this is the Seminoles' highest ranking since February 1993, when they also were sixth.

[vick]

According to ESPN, this is the Seminoles' highest ranking since February 1993, when they also were sixth.

Sports-reference.com has highest-ranking-by-season in their summary page (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/florida-state/) for each team; FSU was #2 to begin the 1972-73 (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/florida-state/1973-schedule.html) season, and stayed there for a couple of weeks.

[Olympic Fan]

Duke jumps to No. 12 in today's (Feb. 13) AP poll ... still No. 14 in the Coaches poll:

The ACC still with six schools in the AP poll:

Louisville No. 8
UNC No. 10
Duke No. 12
Virginia No. 14
FSU No. 17
Notre Dame No. 25

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

It is what it is. When Duke gets healthy none of those 1 seeds will want to see Duke on the 4 line.

Lucky for those one seeds, I somehow don't think Duke will be on the 4 line... ;)

[BandAlum83]

UNC received a lot more voter points than we did this week.

If only we had beaten them last Thursday, maybe we could have moved up more, and made them move down.

[Olympic Fan]

UNC received a lot more voter points than we did this week.

If only we had beaten them last Thursday, maybe we could have moved up more, and made them move down.

I know you are being sarcastic, but head-to-head is not the be-all, end-all ... if it were, you'd have to rank NC State, FSU and Virginia Tech ahead of Duke.

UNC has a slightly better record (21-5 vs. 20-5) against a slightly tougher schedule.

I don't think it's ridiculous for the voters to drop them from No. 8 to No. 10 this week, while Duke climbs from No. 18 to No. 12 -- we've gone from 10 spots below them to two spots below them in one week.

That's pretty good and, I think, fair.

[CDu]

I know you are being sarcastic, but head-to-head is not the be-all, end-all ... if it were, you'd have to rank NC State, FSU and Virginia Tech ahead of Duke.

UNC has a slightly better record (21-5 vs. 20-5) against a slightly tougher schedule.

I don't think it's ridiculous for the voters to drop them from No. 8 to No. 10 this week, while Duke climbs from No. 18 to No. 12 -- we've gone from 10 spots below them to two spots below them in one week.

That's pretty good and, I think, fair.

Yeah, that feels about right. It is slightly better than Pomeroy and RPI have us. And it is spot on or slightly below what those sites have for UNC.

[dukebluesincebirth]

I'm very pleased to have moved back up to #12. This could be a huge week for us. If we can somehow pull out wins over UVa and Wake (tall order but very possible), I think we climb our way back into the top 10 with 4 regular season games remaining. With the adversity this team has faced this season, to be in that position next week would be incredible! Then we can switch gears and start thinking about controlling our own destiny, and positioning for tourney seeds. But I'm getting ahead of myself. Anyhow, big week guys! Lets lock in and get 2 Ws!!! Go DUKE.

[Reilly]

There have been eight seasons where Duke was #1 in the AP pre-season poll: http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duke/

In the seven completed other seasons, Duke won at least one sort of championship (ACC regular season, ACC Tourney, NCAA regional, national).
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/conferences/acc/

Will be interesting to see what hardware this 2017 squad might bring home.

2017
2011 – ACC Tourney champs
2006 – ACC Tourney champs, ACC regular season champs
2002 – ACC Tourney champs
1999 – Final Four, ACC Tourney champs, ACC regular season champs
1992 – National champs, Final Four, ACC Tourney champs, ACC regular season champs
1989 - Final Four
1979 – ACC regular season champs

[BandAlum83]

#'s 4, 9 and 11 have so far lost this week.

4 Baylor lost a road game to unranked Texas Tech. I doubt that is a bad enough loss to drop them out of the top 10. Their next game this week is against #3 Kansas at home. Could a loss to Kansas coupled with a loss to Kansas at home drop them down?

#9 West Virginia lost on Kansas' court in OT. Hardly something that could drop them out of the Top 10, especially if they hold serve Saturday at home against that Texas Tech team that beat Baylor.

#11 Wisconsin lost at unranked Michigan. That will probably make them move back.

So it seems for us to break into the top 10, we need to beat Wake of course, and we need some loss(es) among the teams ranked ahead of us:

#9 WVU losing to Texas Tech at home
#10 UNC losing at home to UVA
#8 Louisville losing to VT at home

Seem like the best candidates. Even if Baylor looses to Kansas, they probably won't drop far. The other teams ahead of us are also very likely to win.

So absent a needed loss, I would think we come in at 11 next week. Unless the voters start recognizing we are not the same team we were 6 weeks ago and jump us ahead of some other teams.

Not that it really matters, I suppose, but it does shape a story for the selection committee even if they don't publicly acknowledge it.

[TruBlu]

#'s 4, 9 and 11 have so far lost this week.

4 Baylor lost a road game to unranked Texas Tech. I doubt that is a bad enough loss to drop them out of the top 10. Their next game this week is against #3 Kansas at home. Could a loss to Kansas coupled with a loss to Kansas at home drop them down?

#9 West Virginia lost on Kansas' court in OT. Hardly something that could drop them out of the Top 10, especially if they hold serve Saturday at home against that Texas Tech team that beat Baylor.

#11 Wisconsin lost at unranked Michigan. That will probably make them move back.

So it seems for us to break into the top 10, we need to beat Wake of course, and we need some loss(es) among the teams ranked ahead of us:

#9 WVU losing to Texas Tech at home
#10 UNC losing at home to UVA
#8 Louisville losing to VT at home

Seem like the best candidates. Even if Baylor looses to Kansas, they probably won't drop far. The other teams ahead of us are also very likely to win.

So absent a needed loss, I would think we come in at 11 next week. Unless the voters start recognizing we are not the same team we were 6 weeks ago and jump us ahead of some other teams.

Not that it really matters, I suppose, but it does shape a story for the selection committee even if they don't publicly acknowledge it.

The bolded (above) is by far the most popular outcome.

[OldPhiKap]

The bolded (above) is by far the most popular outcome.

I'm okay with that too.

[CDu]

The crazy thing is that we just beat a top-20 team in their gym with one of our best players hobbled with an ankle injury and one of our most talented players still trying to shake off the physical and mental/psychological rust from 2 major knee injuries. Allen will eventually get healthy. That's less than a week after beating a top-10 team. But if Giles gets going? Yikes.

I know, I know, ifs and buts, candy and nuts. Something about aunts being uncles. As is, the team is capable of winning it all. If Giles gets even remotely close to where he was in high school? We could approach the level we thought we'd be at the beginning of the season.

I think Giles' performance in the UVa game shows signs for promise. He looked like a player out there, not so much like a guy battling with his body. Even on the Kennard pass that he fumbled out of bounds, he was trying a very athletic and clever basketball move. I think he's getting close. Let's hope he can build off of that performance with another strong game tomorrow in Cameron.

[Steven43]

There have been eight seasons where Duke was #1 in the AP pre-season poll: http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/duke/

In the seven completed other seasons, Duke won at least one sort of championship (ACC regular season, ACC Tourney, NCAA regional, national).
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/conferences/acc/

Will be interesting to see what hardware this 2017 squad might bring home.

2017
2011 – ACC Tourney champs
2006 – ACC Tourney champs, ACC regular season champs
2002 – ACC Tourney champs
1999 – Final Four, ACC Tourney champs, ACC regular season champs
1992 – National champs, Final Four, ACC Tourney champs, ACC regular season champs
1989 - Final Four
1979 – ACC regular season champs

Sincerely hope Duke does not bring home the championship hardware of the ACC tournament. I would rather lose in the semis and rest up for the NCAAs, just like in 2015.

[BoiseDevil]

Sincerely hope Duke does not bring home the championship hardware of the ACC tournament. I would rather lose in the semis and rest up for the NCAAs, just like in 2015.

Rest is overrated, let's win both!!!

[camion]

Rest is overrated, let's win both!!!

Yep. Don't be afraid to give it all you've got because even if you come up short it's good training for the next challenge.

I believe someone with the last initial 'K' said something similar.

[OldPhiKap]

ACCT ends on a Saturday, and the earliest we could play would be on a Thursday. Plenty of time to rest.

Plus, if we win, we increase the chances of having our first round in Greenville SC. Easy trip from Durham for the team and for fans. Better to play in Greenville on a Thursday (at worst) than Sacramento or Salt Lake City on a Thursday or even Friday.

[jv001]

ACCT ends on a Saturday, and the earliest we could play would be on a Thursday. Plenty of time to rest.

Plus, if we win, we increase the chances of having our first round in Greenville SC. Easy trip from Durham for the team and for fans. Better to play in Greenville on a Thursday (at worst) than Portland or somewhere else out West on a Thursday or even Friday.

Right down I-85 and not that far at all. Let's win it all. The thread on the Duke 1965 team has me really fired up. ;)GoDuke!

[MrPoon]

My guess is that a win against Wake by anything more than about 4-5 will move Duke into the top 10.
Not that it matters. Based on the committee's mid season report show/thingy, they ignored the conventional "wisdom" of the polls.
But it would be nice to see the trend line of this late season run get recognized. There is a lot of talk that this team is "one of the most dangerous" and perception is all the AP is about. Plus a home win against UNC (while reflected already) and road win against top 15 team (who Vegas had as 5+ favorite) and a potential top 30ish team in Wake will be enough I suspect even without massive upsets higher in the polls.

I've watched a lot of college BB lately and there are several good teams but no team that is a clear great team, conference play is hitting everyone. I haven't seen the Zags (until they actually deliver up to their seeding, I'll keep discounting them) but there is no team that Duke can't play with based on current form. Very exciting. Seems like this is the trajectory of this program in the OAD era. Competitive early in non-conf, struggle early on road against experienced conf teams (cause panic on DBR board), figure out team play and D late. Hope momentum and legs are strong enough for strong tournament run.

[BandAlum83]

Duke returns to the top ten in this week's poll coming in at #10 as west virginia drops from 9 to 12 after losing last week to Kansas.

The ACC has 3 in the top ten now, with Louisville at 7 and UNC at 8.

After losing twice last week, Baylor dropped like a rock to #9. The openning is there, it seems, for the ACC to get a number 1 seed by the end of the year, but 3 Pac teams will also vie for a #1 NCAAT seed also. Arizona is at #4 now, with UCLA and Oregon in 5 and 6 respectively.

Which conference will cannibalize more down the stretch to keep the conference from getting the 4th #1 seed?

[CDu]

Duke returns to the top ten in this week's poll coming in at #10 as west virginia drops from 9 to 12 after losing last week to Kansas.

The ACC has 3 in the top ten now, with Louisville at 7 and UNC at 8.

After losing twice last week, Baylor dropped like a rock to #9. The openning is there, it seems, for the ACC to get a number 1 seed by the end of the year, but 3 Pac teams will also vie for a #1 NCAAT seed also. Arizona is at #4 now, with UCLA and Oregon in 5 and 6 respectively.

Which conference will cannibalize more down the stretch to keep the conference from getting the 4th #1 seed?

Well, the Pac-12 has - at most - 3 games left between their 3 top teams. And that's if all 3 are the last left standing in the conference. And none of the 3 face another serious test on their regular season schedule. By comparison, the ACC has two more regular season matchups (Louisville and Duke both go to UNC), a road game against a top-25 team (UNC at UVa), and two home games against top-25 teams (Duke hosts FSU, Louisville hosts Notre Dame). And that's before we even get to the conference tournament. So it would seem much more likely that the ACC cannibalizes its top teams from here on out than the Pac-12.

[BandAlum83]

Well, the Pac-12 has - at most - 3 games left between their 3 top teams. And that's if all 3 are the last left standing in the conference. And none of the 3 face another serious test on their regular season schedule. By comparison, the ACC has two more regular season matchups (Louisville and Duke both go to UNC), a road game against a top-25 team (UNC at UVa), and two home games against top-25 teams (Duke hosts FSU, Louisville hosts Notre Dame). And that's before we even get to the conference tournament. So it would seem much more likely that the ACC cannibalizes its top teams from here on out than the Pac-12.

Alternatively, Duke wins 'em all, and gets the fourth #1 seed without any controversy. :)

Actually, there is a school of thought that they will want to keep the top Pac team as a number 2 in the west instead of a #1 in the south.

We'll see..

[FadedTackyShirt]

Actually, there is a school of thought that they will want to keep the top Pac team as a number 2 in the west instead of a #1 in the south

Brackets set up extremely well for the PAC this season. UA will play in SLC the first weekend along with Gonzaga. UO & UCLA will play in Sacramento.

Whoever stays in the West wil get Gonzaga in San Jose. The PAC school that gets the number 2 seed in the West will have an easier path than even number 1 seeds elsewhere. F4 in Phoenix is a bus ride for UA and UCLA and UO play in Phoenix almost every season.

[arnie]

Duke returns to the top ten in this week's poll coming in at #10 as west virginia drops from 9 to 12 after losing last week to Kansas.

The ACC has 3 in the top ten now, with Louisville at 7 and UNC at 8.

After losing twice last week, Baylor dropped like a rock to #9. The openning is there, it seems, for the ACC to get a number 1 seed by the end of the year, but 3 Pac teams will also vie for a #1 NCAAT seed also. Arizona is at #4 now, with UCLA and Oregon in 5 and 6 respectively.

Which conference will cannibalize more down the stretch to keep the conference from getting the 4th #1 seed?
Very surprised UVA ranked ahead of FSU. Guess pollsters liked Virginia O on Saturday.😎

[weezie]

I like how the polls are not quuiiiiiite trusting Duke yet. Fun stuff!

[uh_no]

I like how the polls are not quuiiiiiite trusting Duke yet. Fun stuff!

i wouldn't either, given we gave up 94 points on saturday.

[Troublemaker]

Brackets set up extremely well for the PAC this season. UA will play in SLC the first weekend along with Gonzaga. UO & UCLA will play in Sacramento.

Whoever stays in the West wil get Gonzaga in San Jose. The PAC school that gets the number 2 seed in the West will have an easier path than even number 1 seeds elsewhere. F4 in Phoenix is a bus ride for UA and UCLA and UO play in Phoenix almost every season.

This assumes, of course, that Gonzaga is highly overrated -- worse than the average 2 seed. Which might not be the case.

I tend to think the Zags are somewhat overrated by the computers but probably still a top-5 team.

Of course, we'll find out more as they make their way through the NCAAT.

[weezie]

i wouldn't either, given we gave up 94 points on saturday.

Come on youngster! You're too serious and fact driven. Come on over here to Looneytown. Ok, maybe in a couple of weeks...

[Troublemaker]

Not sure we need a separate seeding speculation thread (at least not yet), so gonna stick a link to Bracket Matrix (http://www.bracketmatrix.com/) (updated this morning) here.

It looks like at this point Duke is the highest-rated 3 seed (so #9 overall).

After Baylor's loss, UNC is now the fourth #1 seed. So, the 2 seeds ahead of us are Baylor, Louisville, Oregon, Arizona

[subzero02]

Alternatively, Duke wins 'em all, and gets the fourth #1 seed without any controversy. :)

Actually, there is a school of thought that they will want to keep the top Pac team as a number 2 in the west instead of a #1 in the south.

We'll see..

Because the Zags are presumed to be the weakest 1 seed and the top dog in the pac12 could be presumed to be the strongest 2 seed?

[FadedTackyShirt]

This assumes, of course, that Gonzaga is highly overrated -- worse than the average 2 seed. Which might not be the case.

I tend to think the Zags are somewhat overrated by the computers but probably still a top-5 team.

Of course, we'll find out more as they make their way through the NCAAT.

Drawing the 'Zags is part of it, but the highly seeded PAC teams will also benefit from familiar/easy travel (SLC, SJ, Phoenix). Sacramento's the other locale where they don't play often. None of the number one seeds will potentially have easy travel, familiar surroundings, and alumni/fan base support all three weekends.

[Dukehky]

People know the Pac 12 is terrible outside of Oregon, Arizona, and UCLA right? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills to have all of the good ACC teams ranked below all of them. Like, we have just been beating the hell out of each other all year.

Also, Carolina, get a lot of buzz as a 1 seed and "best team in the country." That is complete and utter nonsense.

[fidel]

Zags are going to face the same issues as Kentucky '15...seriously talented, but seriously untested.

Its hard to tell if they have a B or C game to fall back on if A is taken away from them.

[BandAlum83]

Not sure we need a separate seeding speculation thread (at least not yet), so gonna stick a link to Bracket Matrix (http://www.bracketmatrix.com/) (updated this morning) here.

It looks like at this point Duke is the highest-rated 3 seed (so #9 overall).

After Baylor's loss, UNC is now the fourth #1 seed. So, the 2 seeds ahead of us are Baylor, Louisville, Oregon, Arizona

Jiminy Christmas!! That site averages a ton of bracket projections together. I would have thought Lunardi was the only one who did Bracketology with the way he's all I ever see!

[jv001]

Jiminy Christmas!! That site averages a sh*t-ton of bracket projections together. I would have thought Lunardi was the only one who did Bracketology with the way he's all I ever see!

Northwestern a #7 and Marquette a #11 seed. I hope our Duke guys make the tournament this season. GoDuke!

[mgtr]

Agree! If asked, I would have guessed maybe 10--15 brackets, with only maybe 5 complete. Wow, would I have been wrong. That is more brackets than Carter has pills!

[subzero02]

Not sure we need a separate seeding speculation thread (at least not yet), so gonna stick a link to Bracket Matrix (http://www.bracketmatrix.com/) (updated this morning) here.

It looks like at this point Duke is the highest-rated 3 seed (so #9 overall).

After Baylor's loss, UNC is now the fourth #1 seed. So, the 2 seeds ahead of us are Baylor, Louisville, Oregon, Arizona

Very interesting... 3 of the first four out are from the ACC (clemson, wake forest and Gtech).

[Olympic Fan]

Because the Zags are presumed to be the weakest 1 seed and the top dog in the pac12 could be presumed to be the strongest 2 seed?

Not necessarily -- the NCAA Selection Committee has made it clear that geography trumps the true s-curve. They are willing to move teams TWO seed lines to accommodate geography.

I think it very likely that the best Pac 12 team (Oregon, I think) ends up as the No. 2 seed in the West ... unless Gonzaga loses one (as unlikely as that is) and Oregon becomes No. 1 in the West.

PS Count me among those who thinks Gonzaga is GROSSLY overrated. They are unbeaten this year because they (1) played the easiest non-conference schedule they've played in recent times (their neutral court win over an Arizona team missing two starters is their "signature" win) and (2) their West Coast Conference is the weakest they have ever been.

I would LOVE to be No. 2 or No. 3 or even No. 4 in Gonzaga's regional.

[CDu]

I would LOVE to be No. 2 or No. 3 or even No. 4 in Gonzaga's regional.

I'd rather be the #1 or #2 in the East or South. I don't want us to have to travel so far and play road games against teams like UCLA or Arizona just to have a chance at a weak Gonzaga #1.

So let's just win out and be a #1 or #2 in the East or South and play closer to home.

[freshmanjs]

Not necessarily -- the NCAA Selection Committee has made it clear that geography trumps the true s-curve. They are willing to move teams TWO seed lines to accommodate geography.

I think it very likely that the best Pac 12 team (Oregon, I think) ends up as the No. 2 seed in the West ... unless Gonzaga loses one (as unlikely as that is) and Oregon becomes No. 1 in the West.

PS Count me among those who thinks Gonzaga is GROSSLY overrated. They are unbeaten this year because they (1) played the easiest non-conference schedule they've played in recent times (their neutral court win over an Arizona team missing two starters is their "signature" win) and (2) their West Coast Conference is the weakest they have ever been.

I would LOVE to be No. 2 or No. 3 or even No. 4 in Gonzaga's regional.

Don't underestimate the time zone effect. It is very difficult to travel 3 time zones and win with just a couple days adjustment. Would be a huge advantage for gonzaga if they played an east coast team in the sweet 16.

[CDu]

Don't underestimate the time zone effect. It is very difficult to travel 3 time zones and win with just a couple days adjustment. Would be a huge advantage for gonzaga if they played an east coast team in the sweet 16.

Yup. If Gonzaga was the #1 seed in the East or South (which they won't be), I'd be all for being in their bracket. But travelling out West is not what I want.

[jv001]

I'd rather be the #1 or #2 in the East or South. I don't want us to have to travel so far and play road games against teams like UCLA or Arizona just to have a chance at a weak Gonzaga #1.

So let's just win out and be a #1 or #2 in the East or South and play closer to home.

I'm with you in the let's win out scenario. The last few conference games are going to show just how good this Duke team is
(at this point in the season). I put the "at this point in the season" in because we have two players that still just might play their way into a few more minutes, Harry & Marques. Then we have Grayson and Amile still not quite at 100%. In prior years, we've had teams that some Duke fans said to have peaked too early. Personally I don't believe teams peak too early. I do think that some teams can or don't reach their ceiling. I look at this team and think it has not reached it's ceiling. Injuries and Coach K's back surgery has played a part in that. I know we're currently on a hot streak and have played our way into contenders for the ACC Regular Season title, but we've only blown one conference team(GT) away. I want to see a winning streak like UConn had in winning their conference tournament and the NCAAT. Like I said, the last few conference games should tell us a lot about our team. GoDuke!

[FadedTackyShirt]

Not necessarily -- the NCAA Selection Committee has made it clear that geography trumps the true s-curve. They are willing to move teams TWO seed lines to accommodate geography.

I think it bery likely that the best Pac 12 team (Oregon, I think) ends up as the No. 2 seed in the West ... unless Gonzaga loses one (as unlikely as that is) and Oregon becomes No. 1 in the West.

PS Count me among those who thinks Gonzaga is GROSSLY overrated. They are unbeaten this year because they (1) played the easiest non-conference schedule they've played in recent times (their neutral court win over an Arizona team missing two starters is their "signature" win) and (2) their West Coast Conference is the weakest they have ever been.

I would LOVE to be No. 2 or No. 3 or even No. 4 in Gonzaga's regional.

Don't think the 'Zags will lose before the Dance, but they'd get punished if they did. Likely a two seed and probably moved out of the West. Not losing in the first weekend, but very vulnerable outside of the West.

Tournament Committee would love to have a Gonzaga/Oregon match up. Few's an Oregon grad. Good guy and coach, but can't see him jumping anywhere other than UO or Washington. Chris Petersen has done great things with UW football.

[kAzE]

I would LOVE to be No. 2 or No. 3 or even No. 4 in Gonzaga's regional.

I'd generally agree, aside from the fact that we generally have not done well when in the West regional. Traveling from the east coast to the west coast does weird things to your internal clock. I'd love for them to get tripped up in the WCC tournament (I assume there is one), they fall to a 2 seed in the midwest or south, and we get the 3 seed in the same region. That would be the ideal scenario.

[Olympic Fan]

I see that Lunardi has moved North Carolina to a No. 1 seed.

That's interesting and in line by the opinions of Jay Bilas and Jay Williams (and Doris Burkes, who spouted it Sunday) that UNC is the best team in the country.

But ...

When you look at the numbers,

UNC is 5th in the RPI
UNC is 6th in Pomeroy
UNC is 8th in the AP poll
UNC is 8th in the Coaches Poll

That's a No. 1 seed?

There's one other thing I hope the committee looks at -- UNC's performance away from the Smith Center.

UNC is 5-4 in road games with losses at Indiana, at Georgia Tech, at Miami and at Duke ... only the Duke loss was close.

Their four road wins include an overtime win at Georgia Tech, last second-wins over Wake Forest and Boston College, and a very easy win over NC State. And a very easy win over a weak Hawaii team.

Is it possible that UNC is where it is because of a schedule that gives them every tough ACC opponent at home -- and just two of the top teams on the road (at Duke, which they have already lost, and at Virginia, which KenPom predicts that they lose)? What would their record be if they had to play Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida State away from home?

I think somebody from the ACC will be a No. 1 seed after winning the ACC Tournament in Brooklyn. I don't think it will be UNC.

[OldPhiKap]

I think somebody from the ACC will be a No. 1 seed after winning the ACC Tournament in Brooklyn. I don't think it will be UNC.

This. If the winner is Duke, Louisville or UNC, they get a #1 seed. Not betting on UNC to be that team.

(Will be curious to see what happens though if ND, UVa, or some other team wins the ACCT. There are plenty of capable teams out there in the middle of the pack to take down the favorites)

[Edouble]

Yup. If Gonzaga was the #1 seed in the East or South (which they won't be), I'd be all for being in their bracket. But travelling out West is not what I want.

I will never, ever want to go out West after 2011.

[BandAlum83]

This. If the winner is Duke, Louisville or UNC, they get a #1 seed. Not betting on UNC to be that team.

(Will be curious to see what happens though if ND, UVa, or some other team wins the ACCT. There are plenty of capable teams out there in the middle of the pack to take down the favorites)

I think if a non-regular season title holder (the ones participating in a tie breaker for the #1 seed) does not win the ACCT, it really puts a #1 seed for the ACC in jeopardy. Maybe if they make it to the final game they might be a #1 seed, but it wouldn't be a lock, IMO.

[brevity]

Not necessarily -- the NCAA Selection Committee has made it clear that geography trumps the true s-curve. They are willing to move teams TWO seed lines to accommodate geography.


Don't think the 'Zags will lose before the Dance, but they'd get punished if they did. Likely a two seed and probably moved out of the West. Not losing in the first weekend, but very vulnerable outside of the West.

Gonzaga is not leaving the West. The only way I see that happening is if Oregon or Arizona wins out in impressive fashion, and the Selection Committee feels compelled to put them ahead of a Gonzaga team that also wins out. Should Gonzaga lose a game, they'll stay in the West as a 2 or 3 seed, depending on what happens with the PAC-12 and Baylor.

At this point we probably need a dedicated seeding thread.

[moonpie23]

sleep on the cheats at your peril.....they are legit, and aiming for (and capable of making) another final 4..

[jv001]

sleep on the cheats at your peril....they are legit, and aiming for (and capable of making) another final 4..

You may be right but I still hate emmmmmmmm. GoDuke!

[Olympic Fan]

I'd generally agree, aside from the fact that we generally have not done well when in the West regional. Traveling from the east coast to the west coast does weird things to your internal clock. I'd love for them to get tripped up in the WCC tournament (I assume there is one), they fall to a 2 seed in the midwest or south, and we get the 3 seed in the same region. That would be the ideal scenario.

(1) I don't think that losing will move Gonzaga out of the West. If they lose, they are still a 2 or 3 in the West. Why would you move them? By rule, only one of the top three Pac 12 teams (Oregon, UCLA or Arizona) can be in the same regional. Win or lose, Gonzaga will be the second-best team from the West (other than the 2nd and 3rd Pac 12 team, which can't be in that region) -- and I keep reminding you, geography trumps the s-curve.

(2) the one region I don't want to be in is the Midwest. I don't want to have to beat Kansas in Kansas City -- almost a homecourt (like UNC in Greensboro) for them. Maube they lose earlier -- heck, maybe WE lose earlier, but if it comes down to it, I think we'd have to get past Kansas in Kansas City to get to the Final Four. I'd LOVE to play Kansas again (with a healthy Tatum and a healthy Allen), but not in Kansas City.

As for the fear of the West, you are basing that on a small sample size. Duke has been in the West Regional four times:

In 1984, K's first NCAA team was upset by Washington in Pullman, Washington (in their home state)
In 2003, Duke won two games (Colorado State and Central Michigan) in Salt Lake City, then lost to No. 2 seed Kansas in Anaheim
In 2007, Duke lost its opener to VCU -- but being in the West had nothing to do with it -- that was two Eastern teams in Buffalo
In 2011, Duke lost to Arizona in Anaheim in the Sweet 16. This is the one everybody cites, but I was there and it wasn't a matter of time zones or Duke playing poorly -- Arizona simply played out of their minds.

I guess you could also count the 1989 Final Four in Seattle, but that was Duke losing to another Eastern team (Seton Hall). It wasn't time zones -- it was Brickey's injury and Laettner's foul trouble that cost us that game.

Duke has had plenty of success on the West Coast (and beyond -- Duke's record in Hawaii, even further West is fantastic). There is little or no problem with time zones going West. For one thing, they get there early enough to acclimate and for another, the three hour time difference makes late games seem three hours earlier -- and that's a good thing.

I repeat, while I don't mind being in the South or East, I don't want to be in the Midwest and I'd gladly be the No. 3 or No. 4 in the West (if we have to be a 3 or 4). We won't be 1 or 2 in the West (that will be Gonzaga and the Pac 12 champ in some order). I'd prefer to be No. 1 in the South (Villanova is a lock to be No. 1 in the East). I'll take a No. 2 in the East or South ... but I we drop o 3 or 4, I want to be in the West.

[subzero02]

(1) I don't think that losing will move Gonzaga out of the West. If they lose, they are still a 2 or 3 in the West. Why would you move them? By rule, only one of the top three Pac 12 teams (Oregon, UCLA or Arizona) can be in the same regional. Win or lose, Gonzaga will be the second-best team from the West (other than the 2nd and 3rd Pac 12 team, which can't be in that region) -- and I keep reminding you, geography trumps the s-curve.

(2) the one region I don't want to be in is the Midwest. I don't want to have to beat Kansas in Kansas City -- almost a homecourt (like UNC in Greensboro) for them. Maube they lose earlier -- heck, maybe WE lose earlier, but if it comes down to it, I think we'd have to get past Kansas in Kansas City to get to the Final Four. I'd LOVE to play Kansas again (with a healthy Tatum and a healthy Allen), but not in Kansas City.

As for the fear of the West, you are basing that on a small sample size. Duke has been in the West Regional four times:

In 1984, K's first NCAA team was upset by Washington in Pullman, Washington (in their home state)
In 2003, Duke won two games (Colorado State and Central Michigan) in Salt Lake City, then lost to No. 2 seed Kansas in Anaheim
In 2007, Duke lost its opener to VCU -- but being in the West had nothing to do with it -- that was two Eastern teams in Buffalo
In 2011, Duke lost to Arizona in Anaheim in the Sweet 16. This is the one everybody cites, but I was there and it wasn't a matter of time zones or Duke playing poorly -- Arizona simply played out of their minds.

I guess you could also count the 1989 Final Four in Seattle, but that was Duke losing to another Eastern team (Seton Hall). It wasn't time zones -- it was Brickey's injury and Laettner's foul trouble that cost us that game.

Duke has had plenty of success on the West Coast (and beyond -- Duke's record in Hawaii, even further West is fantastic). There is little or no problem with time zones going West. For one thing, they get there early enough to acclimate and for another, the three hour time difference makes late games seem three hours earlier -- and that's a good thing.

I repeat, while I don't mind being in the South or East, I don't want to be in the Midwest and I'd gladly be the No. 3 or No. 4 in the West (if we have to be a 3 or 4). We won't be 1 or 2 in the West (that will be Gonzaga and the Pac 12 champ in some order). I'd prefer to be No. 1 in the South (Villanova is a lock to be No. 1 in the East). I'll take a No. 2 in the East or South ... but I we drop o 3 or 4, I want to be in the West.

2016 says hello... we were in the West region and lost to Oregon in the sweet 16 in Anaheim. I don't want to have to play Kansas in Kansas City but I sure as heck don't want to go out west with Oregon again.

[freshmanjs]

(1) I don't think that losing will move Gonzaga out of the West. If they lose, they are still a 2 or 3 in the West. Why would you move them? By rule, only one of the top three Pac 12 teams (Oregon, UCLA or Arizona) can be in the same regional. Win or lose, Gonzaga will be the second-best team from the West (other than the 2nd and 3rd Pac 12 team, which can't be in that region) -- and I keep reminding you, geography trumps the s-curve.

(2) the one region I don't want to be in is the Midwest. I don't want to have to beat Kansas in Kansas City -- almost a homecourt (like UNC in Greensboro) for them. Maube they lose earlier -- heck, maybe WE lose earlier, but if it comes down to it, I think we'd have to get past Kansas in Kansas City to get to the Final Four. I'd LOVE to play Kansas again (with a healthy Tatum and a healthy Allen), but not in Kansas City.

As for the fear of the West, you are basing that on a small sample size. Duke has been in the West Regional four times:

In 1984, K's first NCAA team was upset by Washington in Pullman, Washington (in their home state)
In 2003, Duke won two games (Colorado State and Central Michigan) in Salt Lake City, then lost to No. 2 seed Kansas in Anaheim
In 2007, Duke lost its opener to VCU -- but being in the West had nothing to do with it -- that was two Eastern teams in Buffalo
In 2011, Duke lost to Arizona in Anaheim in the Sweet 16. This is the one everybody cites, but I was there and it wasn't a matter of time zones or Duke playing poorly -- Arizona simply played out of their minds.

I guess you could also count the 1989 Final Four in Seattle, but that was Duke losing to another Eastern team (Seton Hall). It wasn't time zones -- it was Brickey's injury and Laettner's foul trouble that cost us that game.

Duke has had plenty of success on the West Coast (and beyond -- Duke's record in Hawaii, even further West is fantastic). There is little or no problem with time zones going West. For one thing, they get there early enough to acclimate and for another, the three hour time difference makes late games seem three hours earlier -- and that's a good thing.

I repeat, while I don't mind being in the South or East, I don't want to be in the Midwest and I'd gladly be the No. 3 or No. 4 in the West (if we have to be a 3 or 4). We won't be 1 or 2 in the West (that will be Gonzaga and the Pac 12 champ in some order). I'd prefer to be No. 1 in the South (Villanova is a lock to be No. 1 in the East). I'll take a No. 2 in the East or South ... but I we drop o 3 or 4, I want to be in the West.

This has been studied extensively. There is tons of data on it. Not a small sample at all. West coast teams consistently have an advantage vs east coast teams in games played in the west across sports and across lots of data.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

I see that Lunardi has moved North Carolina to a No. 1 seed.

That's interesting and in line by the opinions of Jay Bilas and Jay Williams (and Doris Burkes, who spouted it Sunday) that UNC is the best team in the country.

But ...

When you look at the numbers,

UNC is 5th in the RPI
UNC is 6th in Pomeroy
UNC is 8th in the AP poll
UNC is 8th in the Coaches Poll

That's a No. 1 seed?

There's one other thing I hope the committee looks at -- UNC's performance away from the Smith Center.

UNC is 5-4 in road games with losses at Indiana, at Georgia Tech, at Miami and at Duke ... only the Duke loss was close.

Their four road wins include an overtime win at Georgia Tech, last second-wins over Wake Forest and Boston College, and a very easy win over NC State. And a very easy win over a weak Hawaii team.

Is it possible that UNC is where it is because of a schedule that gives them every tough ACC opponent at home -- and just two of the top teams on the road (at Duke, which they have already lost, and at Virginia, which KenPom predicts that they lose)? What would their record be if they had to play Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida State away from home?

I think somebody from the ACC will be a No. 1 seed after winning the ACC Tournament in Brooklyn. I don't think it will be UNC.
This.

I'm sick of hearing how amazing they are and what a gauntlet they have to navigate over their final regular season stretch. Bull... Bologna! They are a good team for sure but not heads above all others. Not close. They've struggled mightily away from the safe confines of their wine and cheese shop. But no one is taking even a moment to objectively evaluate their full body of work. Hopefully the NCAA committee will (both the tourney committee and the COI :cool:). I simply don't get the love affair with the argyle clad cheaters.

[MrPoon]

I too have wondered about the sport's media's love affair with Roy's team. I think it is two issues. One is they are leading the hardest conference in years (I know - unbalanced schedule but they aren't considering that). The second is that their big games are the ones on national TV and those are the ones they have won at home. Again unbalanced schedule. But when on TV they have the look of a contender with good PT play and size that few can match.

Plus there aren't many teams staking a claim at being better. Kansas keeps flirting with disaster in a softer conference. AZ and UCLA play attractive BB but may be in the softest of all major conferences. The Zags, well I think despite their ranking everyone has suspicions. Villanova is perceived as lacking strength inside to play with the big boys.

Of course further inspection agrees that they can't seem to get a win on the road. And they will have a home loss coming on the 4th. I'd rather be below the radar and keep surging through selection Sunday and on through April.

[sagegrouse]

I too have wondered about the sport's media's love affair with Roy's team. I think it is two issues. One is they are leading the hardest conference in years (I know - unbalanced schedule but they aren't considering that). The second is that their big games are the ones on national TV and those are the ones they have won at home. Again unbalanced schedule. But when on TV they have the look of a contender with good PT play and size that few can match.

Plus there aren't many teams staking a claim at being better. Kansas keeps flirting with disaster in a softer conference. AZ and UCLA play attractive BB but may be in the softest of all major conferences. The Zags, well I think despite their ranking everyone has suspicions. Villanova is perceived as lacking strength inside to play with the big boys.

Of course further inspection agrees that they can't seem to get a win on the road. And they will have a home loss coming on the 4th. I'd rather be below the radar and keep surging through selection Sunday and on through April.

With UNC, it's also the "eye test." Amazing rebounding -- by far the best in the country -- leading to impressive scoring plays. No one else seems to be playing like that. When the Heels play good defense, they are a tough team to beat.

[Reilly]

... I guess you could also count the 1989 Final Four in Seattle, but that was Duke losing to another Eastern team (Seton Hall). It wasn't time zones ...

I thought it was because Seattle was closer to Australia.

[BandAlum83]

With UNC, it's also the "eye test." Amazing rebounding -- by far the best in the country -- leading to impressive scoring plays. No one else seems to be playing like that. When the Heels play good defense, they are a tough team to beat.

Eye test: Duke 31- UNC 30

Wasn't that the rebounding tally for our last meeting? :)

[jv001]

I too have wondered about the sport's media's love affair with Roy's team. I think it is two issues. One is they are leading the hardest conference in years (I know - unbalanced schedule but they aren't considering that). The second is that their big games are the ones on national TV and those are the ones they have won at home. Again unbalanced schedule. But when on TV they have the look of a contender with good PT play and size that few can match.

Plus there aren't many teams staking a claim at being better. Kansas keeps flirting with disaster in a softer conference. AZ and UCLA play attractive BB but may be in the softest of all major conferences. The Zags, well I think despite their ranking everyone has suspicions. Villanova is perceived as lacking strength inside to play with the big boys.

Of course further inspection agrees that they can't seem to get a win on the road. And they will have a home loss coming on the 4th. I'd rather be below the radar and keep surging through selection Sunday and on through April.

I would add: many people still consider Uncheat one of the blue bloods of college basketball. I'm amazed how many basketball fans don't know about the years of cheating right under their nose here in NC. But then I shouldn't be surprised, because the media hasn't told that story as it did the Grayson tripping Gate. Whether it was blind luck or planned scheduling the cheats got a break with their home and away games this season. I'm ok with the drooling over the cheats as long as they don't win any championships and continue to miss on the best recruits. GoDuke!

[sagegrouse]

Eye test: Duke 31- UNC 30

Wasn't that the rebounding tally for our last meeting? :)

Yep, and Duke won.

Here's the NCAA stat table (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/statistics/team/_/stat/rebounds) on rebounding, which shows UNC #1, primarily because its offensive rebounds per game total 15.9.

[WVDUKEFAN]

This. If the winner is Duke, Louisville or UNC, they get a #1 seed. Not betting on UNC to be that team.

(Will be curious to see what happens though if ND, UVa, or some other team wins the ACCT. There are plenty of capable teams out there in the middle of the pack to take down the favorites)

I agree w/ you. Out of all the teams in the ACC Tournament, Louisville scares me the most. I think we can beat them, but I think they are the most dangerous.

[gam7]

(1) I don't think that losing will move Gonzaga out of the West. If they lose, they are still a 2 or 3 in the West. Why would you move them? By rule, only one of the top three Pac 12 teams (Oregon, UCLA or Arizona) can be in the same regional. Win or lose, Gonzaga will be the second-best team from the West (other than the 2nd and 3rd Pac 12 team, which can't be in that region) -- and I keep reminding you, geography trumps the s-curve.

(2) the one region I don't want to be in is the Midwest. I don't want to have to beat Kansas in Kansas City -- almost a homecourt (like UNC in Greensboro) for them. Maube they lose earlier -- heck, maybe WE lose earlier, but if it comes down to it, I think we'd have to get past Kansas in Kansas City to get to the Final Four. I'd LOVE to play Kansas again (with a healthy Tatum and a healthy Allen), but not in Kansas City.

As for the fear of the West, you are basing that on a small sample size. Duke has been in the West Regional four times:

In 1984, K's first NCAA team was upset by Washington in Pullman, Washington (in their home state)
In 2003, Duke won two games (Colorado State and Central Michigan) in Salt Lake City, then lost to No. 2 seed Kansas in Anaheim
In 2007, Duke lost its opener to VCU -- but being in the West had nothing to do with it -- that was two Eastern teams in Buffalo
In 2011, Duke lost to Arizona in Anaheim in the Sweet 16. This is the one everybody cites, but I was there and it wasn't a matter of time zones or Duke playing poorly -- Arizona simply played out of their minds.

I guess you could also count the 1989 Final Four in Seattle, but that was Duke losing to another Eastern team (Seton Hall). It wasn't time zones -- it was Brickey's injury and Laettner's foul trouble that cost us that game.

Duke has had plenty of success on the West Coast (and beyond -- Duke's record in Hawaii, even further West is fantastic). There is little or no problem with time zones going West. For one thing, they get there early enough to acclimate and for another, the three hour time difference makes late games seem three hours earlier -- and that's a good thing.

I repeat, while I don't mind being in the South or East, I don't want to be in the Midwest and I'd gladly be the No. 3 or No. 4 in the West (if we have to be a 3 or 4). We won't be 1 or 2 in the West (that will be Gonzaga and the Pac 12 champ in some order). I'd prefer to be No. 1 in the South (Villanova is a lock to be No. 1 in the East). I'll take a No. 2 in the East or South ... but I we drop o 3 or 4, I want to be in the West.

Man, looking at the projected 2 line teams, I really want to be at least a 2, so we wouldn't have to play oregon, arizona or Louisville in the sweet 16. And i think once the dust settles, we will be there.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Man, looking at the projected 2 line teams, I really want to be at least a 2, so we wouldn't have to play oregon, arizona or Louisville in the sweet 16. And i think once the dust settles, we will be there.

Yup. Of all the teams out there, I don't want to face Oregon, Louisville, or Kansas until the Final Four. I see those three teams as more of a threat to Duke's style of play than Gonzaga (I can't get behind mid-majors. Sorry. I am a fan of Goliath), Vilanova, Kentucky, UNC, UVa, Baylor, WVU, or Florida.

[TexHawk]

I too have wondered about the sport's media's love affair with Roy's team. I think it is two issues. One is they are leading the hardest conference in years (I know - unbalanced schedule but they aren't considering that). The second is that their big games are the ones on national TV and those are the ones they have won at home. Again unbalanced schedule. But when on TV they have the look of a contender with good PT play and size that few can match.
IMO you might be falling victim to the "Saturday night ESPN lovefest". KU saw it after winning in Lexington, to be forgotten a week later after falling to Iowa State. The winner of UCLA/Arizona this weekend will own the ESPN airwaves for a cycle. It's just how this stuff works. It's the post-NFL, pre-MLB, pre-NHL/NBA playoffs window where the sports media has to invent their own storylines. (BREAKING: "Durant looks angry at Westbrook in All-Star game timeout. Update: He may have been passing gas instead.") UNC beat the crap out of a good(ish) team on national TV. Let's just leave it at that for now.



Plus there aren't many teams staking a claim at being better. Kansas keeps flirting with disaster in a softer conference. AZ and UCLA play attractive BB but may be in the softest of all major conferences. The Zags, well I think despite their ranking everyone has suspicions. Villanova is perceived as lacking strength inside to play with the big boys.


Comments like this always make me giggle a little bit. Yes, we all know that everybody NOT in the ACC plays in a soft conference. (:eyeroll) Kansas's "flirtation with disaster" was two close games on the road against Top 40 KP teams. Didn't Duke just have a couple of those in the last week?

[jv001]

IMO you might be falling victim to the "Saturday night ESPN lovefest". KU saw it after winning in Lexington, to be forgotten a week later after falling to Iowa State. The winner of UCLA/Arizona this weekend will own the ESPN airwaves for a cycle. It's just how this stuff works. It's the post-NFL, pre-MLB, pre-NHL/NBA playoffs window where the sports media has to invent their own storylines. (BREAKING: "Durant looks angry at Westbrook in All-Star game timeout. Update: He may have been passing gas instead.") UNC beat the crap out of a good(ish) team on national TV. Let's just leave it at that for now.



Comments like this always make me giggle a little bit. Yes, we all know that everybody NOT in the ACC plays in a soft conference. (:eyeroll) Kansas's "flirtation with disaster" was two close games on the road against Top 40 KP teams. Didn't Duke just have a couple of those in the last week?

Duke has been in close games all year. I think Kansas is very good but there are so many teams capable of winning the NCAAT this season. It should be a good tournament to watch this yea. GoDuke!

[Olympic Fan]

Comments like this always make me giggle a little bit. Yes, we all know that everybody NOT in the ACC plays in a soft conference. (:eyeroll) Kansas's "flirtation with disaster" was two close games on the road against Top 40 KP teams. Didn't Duke just have a couple of those in the last week?

Denigrating the Big 12 is just wrong ... it's clearly the second-best conference in America (Pomeroy has it No. 1). No way to call it "soft". (Note: Texhawk, I KNOW you were being sarcastic, responding to another poster who called the Big 12 soft).

I think Kansas showed a lot of grit to win a successfully close games, but it's more than "two close games on the road" -- one of them was an overtime victory at home over a very good West Virginia team. And in the previous home game, they lost to a good, but not great Iowa State team.

That's not to knock Kansas -- As you point out, Duke has had some similar issues, both home (close wins over Clemson and Wake) and on the road (fairly close wins at Virginia and at Notre Dame).

BTW as long as we are talking conferences, I would rate the P6

1. ACC -- six teams in the AP and coaches top 25 ... 11 teams in the Pomeroy top 50. Maybe the strongest mega-conference ever (we'll see how they perform in the NCAA).
2. The Big 12 -- three teams in the top 25, but eight in the top 50
3. Pac 12 -- a very top-heavy league. Three superb teams (Oregon, UCLA, Arizona), but nobody else in the top 50
4. Big East -- a bit deeper than the Pac 12 with five top 50 teams, but not quite as strong at the top -- Villanova is the only real national title contender
5. Big Ten -- Historically, the No. 2 conference (behind the ACC), the Big Ten is as down as it's ever been. Actually seven top 50 teams, which is good, but all but two are from the bottom of the top 50 (and none in the top 10)
6. SEC -- Well, Kentucky is a contender and Florida is very solid, but the rest of the league is a wasteland. Seriously, you can make a good case that Clemson would be third in the SEC -- they have a win at the real third-best team (South Carolina) as well as a win over Alabama in Birmingham and at home vs. Georgia.

[MrPoon]

IMO you might be falling victim to the "Saturday night ESPN lovefest". KU saw it after winning in Lexington, to be forgotten a week later after falling to Iowa State. The winner of UCLA/Arizona this weekend will own the ESPN airwaves for a cycle. It's just how this stuff works. It's the post-NFL, pre-MLB, pre-NHL/NBA playoffs window where the sports media has to invent their own storylines. (BREAKING: "Durant looks angry at Westbrook in All-Star game timeout. Update: He may have been passing gas instead.") UNC beat the crap out of a good(ish) team on national TV. Let's just leave it at that for now.



Comments like this always make me giggle a little bit. Yes, we all know that everybody NOT in the ACC plays in a soft conference. (:eyeroll) Kansas's "flirtation with disaster" was two close games on the road against Top 40 KP teams. Didn't Duke just have a couple of those in the last week?

We are saying the same thing I think in regards to UNC. The question was why they are seeded so high and the "experts" are saying they are the best team in the country as soon as a week after losing at CIS. I was trying to suggest it was the news cycle somewhat distorting a good team into a great one.


I am fairly comfortable going with the belief that this year the ACC is a much harder conference than other major conferences this year. Clemson still being kicked around as a potential tournament team speaks volumes to the depth of the conference. I've watch several PAC 12 games this year and the league is very good at the top. But poor at the middle/bottom. I don't think there are teams nearly as capable as a Wake, Clemson, even the surprising GT. Let me know if others disagree.

Duke too has been "flirting with disaster". The recent SI article quoting an opposition coach about Duke not being a FF team because of lack of PT play and inconsistent D is one I would echo, at least the D (not as much the PT). I still don't see this team as defensively good enough to make a deep run. There is still time but Wake's ability to score at will in clutch time is glossed over because they missed two layups. Two shots that they were making earlier. Perhaps it was better D, perhaps it was just two missed shots. A tournament run will require stops against better teams than Wake and away from home. 3 of the next 4 are road games against #48, #30 and #6 KenPom teams. So a great opportunity to keep the improving trajectory. The good news is there is time, the bad news is there is more tape on how to attack this team (pick and rolls and/or force perimeter switches until the guards are mismatched or you can drive on Luke). I am very worried about the Miami game and needing to score in bunches because we will have a hard time stopping them.

[uh_no]

The good news is there is time, the bad news is there is more tape on how to attack this team (pick and rolls and/or force perimeter switches until the guards are mismatched or you can drive on Luke). I am very worried about the Miami game and needing to score in bunches because we will have a hard time stopping them.

If K acts as I would (which of course he would, because i'm always right!) He'll view the defensive performance similar to how he did post-miami in 2015. The fact that we were able to outscore Wake this time doesn't change the defensive ineptness, and the response should be the same: back to the drawing board. In 2015, it resulted in coming out in a zone and a stellar performance at the Colonel's ranch.

Given K's comments "our perimeter defense stinks!" it's clear he's taking this very seriously. I don't know what the game plan will be going forward, but I am sure that we will have some new tricks up our sleeve. Maybe it will work as good as last time, maybe it won't...but in this case I don't believe K will trot out the same broken sets and hope to score 140ppp moving forward. That miami game on saturday will be the big test.

[gam7]

Yup. Of all the teams out there, I don't want to face Oregon, Louisville, or Kansas until the Final Four. I see those three teams as more of a threat to Duke's style of play than Gonzaga (I can't get behind mid-majors. Sorry. I am a fan of Goliath), Vilanova, Kentucky, UNC, UVa, Baylor, WVU, or Florida.

Yeah, we're on exactly the same page. Unfortunately, for some of the reasons Oly mentioned, I am seeing Nova, Louisville, UNC, Duke in some permutation as the #1/#2 in the South and East. If this were to happen, I'd be hoping for #2 in the East with Villanova.

[Olympic Fan]

If K acts as I would (which of course he would, because i'm always right!) He'll view the defensive performance similar to how he did post-miami in 2015. The fact that we were able to outscore Wake this time doesn't change the defensive ineptness, and the response should be the same: back to the drawing board. In 2015, it resulted in coming out in a zone and a stellar performance at the Colonel's ranch.


But, remember, he merely used the zone in 2015 as a stopgap until his young guys improved in the man-to-man. By tournament time, he was back to the man over 95 percent of the time. It was the man, not the zone, that carried Duke to the 2015 title.

Is there enough time to do the same? The ACC Tournament starts two weeks from today. Can or will K totally revise his defense in that short a period?

I think he's more likely to merely tweek it.

[Troublemaker]

If K acts as I would (which of course he would, because i'm always right!) He'll view the defensive performance similar to how he did post-miami in 2015. The fact that we were able to outscore Wake this time doesn't change the defensive ineptness, and the response should be the same: back to the drawing board. In 2015, it resulted in coming out in a zone and a stellar performance at the Colonel's ranch.

Given K's comments "our perimeter defense stinks!" it's clear he's taking this very seriously. I don't know what the game plan will be going forward, but I am sure that we will have some new tricks up our sleeve. Maybe it will work as good as last time, maybe it won't...but in this case I don't believe K will trot out the same broken sets and hope to score 140ppp moving forward. That miami game on saturday will be the big test.

I don't think he'll view it that way. The general trend during this winning streak has been improvement, but unfortunately, the very latest result was horrible pick and roll defense against Wake (and he did reference PNR defense, not the more general "perimeter defense"). But improvement isn't a straight line up, of course.

The great thing is that every single one of our next three opponents should run plenty of pick and roll (based on how they've played us in the past), so it's sink or swim time.

[uh_no]

But, remember, he merely used the zone in 2015 as a stopgap until his young guys improved in the man-to-man. By tournament time, he was back to the man over 95 percent of the time. It was the man, not the zone, that carried Duke to the 2015 title.

I seem to recall continuing to play match-ups. The discussion was always would we come out in man, 2-3, or 3-2. Fortunately, we didn't run into really guard heavy teams, and so we were able to play man a lot. I recall we played a good amount of zone in at least one game though, SDSU or utah. If we ran into UL, or perhaps ND, I imagine we would have seen some more zone in the later rounds as well.

Whether we needed it or not, the flexibility was very much an asset, IMO, as teams had to prepare for multiple defenses. The biggest thing with the 2015 team was that they were able to pick up the zone in only a few days, use it to great success, and then use that to help play better man.

Each team runs its own race, so I don't imagine K will do the exact same thing, but I imagine we'll change something up.

[Troublemaker]

I seem to recall continuing to play match-ups. The discussion was always would we come out in man, 2-3, or 3-2. Fortunately, we didn't run into really guard heavy teams, and so we were able to play man a lot. I recall we played a good amount of zone in at least one game though, SDSU or utah. If we ran into UL, or perhaps ND, I imagine we would have seen some more zone in the later rounds as well.

Whether we needed it or not, the flexibility was very much an asset, IMO, as teams had to prepare for multiple defenses. The biggest thing with the 2015 team was that they were able to pick up the zone in only a few days, use it to great success, and then use that to help play better man.

Each team runs its own race, so I don't imagine K will do the exact same thing, but I imagine we'll change something up.

I don't recall it that way. We clearly established a formula in 2015. Zone press to slow the advance of the ball, then drop back into m2m and use Cook to harass and deny the other team's best perimeter player the ball.

I think Oly is correct that we'll see a minor tweak if anything. No major upheaval is coming.

[TexHawk]

(2) the one region I don't want to be in is the Midwest. I don't want to have to beat Kansas in Kansas City -- almost a homecourt (like UNC in Greensboro) for them. Maube they lose earlier -- heck, maybe WE lose earlier, but if it comes down to it, I think we'd have to get past Kansas in Kansas City to get to the Final Four. I'd LOVE to play Kansas again (with a healthy Tatum and a healthy Allen), but not in Kansas City.

All else being equal, I probably prefer KU in Kansas City, but it's not a slam dunk. The locals have been pointing to the 2017 NCAA tournament ever since the regionals were announced a few years ago. There is an enormous amount of pressure on KU to get the Midwest #1 seed. And if we/they get it, there will be enormous pressure to advance. Yes, the fans will be an advantage, but they can also amp it up negatively if things aren't going well. (See: Almost losing to #16 seed Western Kentucky in KC in 2013. I have never seen so many freaked out people in one place in my life. Including myself.)

On three other occassions in my lifetime, KC has hosted a regional final when KU was in the bracket and slated for a massive homecourt advantage.

1986: Homecourt clock operator *inadvertently* stops clock for about 20 seconds, leaving enough time for KU for a furious last minute rally against Michigan State. KU wins in overtime. This would make the internet explode in 2017.
1992: IMO, KU was the best bet to knock off the Duke juggernaut, but pukes all over themselves in a loss to UTEP in the 2nd round. I had tickets to the regionals. With no KU, there were about 100 people in the arena, including the players on the four teams.
1995: Blowout loss to Harold Deane and Junior Burrough in the Sweet 16. I think I was hung over for 2 months after this game.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Yeah, we're on exactly the same page. Unfortunately, for some of the reasons Oly mentioned, I am seeing Nova, Louisville, UNC, Duke in some permutation as the #1/#2 in the South and East. If this were to happen, I'd be hoping for #2 in the East with Villanova.

Assuming we don't get a 1-seed, I'm debating whether I want the #2 on the East or the West. I think we're favorably against both Nova and the Zags, but I despise mid-majors and want to stick it to everyone who put a lot of equity into the Zags. Are the Zags good? Yup. Are they overrated? Yup.

[Troublemaker]

Assuming we don't get a 1-seed, I'm debating whether I want the #2 on the East or the West. I think we're favorably against both Nova and the Zags, but I despise mid-majors and want to stick it to everyone who put a lot of equity into the Zags. Are the Zags good? Yup. Are they overrated? Yup.

Villanova would be a very difficult matchup for Duke, imo. Both teams play smallball, but Villanova plays it better than us.

All that said, I'll take my chances as the East #2. The Elite 8 game is supposed to be hard, and the two teams would have to combine to go 6-0 just for the matchup to take place. Maybe they'd lose beforehand, or maybe we'd lose beforehand (rendering the matchup moot).

As for Gonzaga, I need to see them play NCAAT teams. They could be tough for Duke, or they could be someone I'd hope to meet in the Final Four. All depends.

[Reilly]

... I despise mid-majors ...

Who doesn't hate the sort-of little guy?

[gam7]

Villanova would be a very difficult matchup for Duke, imo. Both teams play smallball, but Villanova plays it better than us.

All that said, I'll take my chances as the East #2. The Elite 8 game is supposed to be hard, and the two teams would have to combine to go 6-0 just for the matchup to take place. Maybe they'd lose beforehand, or maybe we'd lose beforehand (rendering the matchup moot).

As for Gonzaga, I need to see them play NCAAT teams. They could be tough for Duke, or they could be someone I'd hope to meet in the Final Four. All depends.

I have trouble seeing a non-Pac12 team as #2 in the West...

I'd be licking my chops to play an undefeated Gonzaga team in the Final Four though. They'd be under a weird combination of a TON of pressure and susceptible to human nature letdown that they just haven't had any experience in dealing with this season (or ever). Normal Final Four pressure. Inevitable game pressure - they've had none. Being undefeated pressure. Human nature satisfaction of being the first Gonzaga/Mark Few Final Four team.

[-jk]

I have trouble seeing a non-Pac12 team as #2 in the West...

I'd be licking my chops to play an undefeated Gonzaga team in the Final Four though. They'd be under a weird combination of a TON of pressure and susceptible to human nature letdown that they just haven't had any experience in dealing with this season (or ever). Normal Final Four pressure. Inevitable game pressure - they've had none. Being undefeated pressure. Human nature satisfaction of being the first Gonzaga/Mark Few Final Four team.

Regardless of 1 or 2, I see the Zags and a Pac whatever as the top two in the west. It's as no-brainer as the ncaa ever gets.

-jk

[flyingdutchdevil]

Regardless of 1 or 2, I see the Zags and a Pac whatever as the top two in the west. It's as no-brainer as the ncaa ever gets.

-jk

Which means they'll royally screw it up.

[brevity]

The polls were very charitable to a Duke team that lost twice last week.

The USA Today Coaches Poll (link (http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/basketball-men/polls/coaches-poll/2016/17/)) has Duke move down from 11th to 14th. The AP Poll (link (http://collegebasketball.ap.org/poll)) has Duke descend 7 spots, from 10th to 17th.

That AP link is interesting because they also show the rankings of each voter. Stephen Schramm of the Fayetteville Observer has Duke 13th. ESPN's Dick Vitale and Dana O'Neil have them 16th. John Feinstein of NPR has them 17th. Steve Wiseman of the Durham Herald-Sun has them 18th.

[pfrduke]

With Miami entering at #25, that's 7 ACC teams ranked in the regular season's penultimate poll. Duke is the 4th ACC team in both, but there are different 3rd ranked teams; we're behind ND in the coaches and behind FSU in the AP. Notre Dame (13 coaches; 19 AP) is the team with the biggest breadth of opinion between the two polls.

[bluedev_92]

The polls were very charitable to a Duke team that lost twice last week.

The USA Today Coaches Poll (link (http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/basketball-men/polls/coaches-poll/2016/17/)) has Duke move down from 11th to 14th. The AP Poll (link (http://collegebasketball.ap.org/poll)) has Duke descend 7 spots, from 10th to 17th.

That AP link is interesting because they also show the rankings of each voter. Stephen Schramm of the Fayetteville Observer has Duke 13th. ESPN's Dick Vitale and Dana O'Neil have them 16th. John Feinstein of NPR has them 17th. Steve Wiseman of the Durham Herald-Sun has them 18th.

Not sure about charitable. I only looked at the Coaches' poll so far & I'm not sure who would go in front of us - maybe FSU & possibly Butler, but I also could make a reasonable argument that we should be ahead of ND & Florida. So all & all probably relatively fair...