Harry Giles: On the Verge?

[Spanarkel]

Although there's really no way to know for sure until it happens, but I feel that Harry may be on the verge of really raising his level of play in the very near future. I know that his absence from competitive basketball for 1+ years and the adjustments to Duke's defensive approach have somewhat limited his contributions to date, but I really like the recent trends. In 5 ACC contests he is averaging 16.6mpg, 7.6ppg and 6.6rpg(3 offensive boards/game), and he looks fluid and locked-in out on the court. His dunk against UL when Anas Mahmoud was in the immediate area but was not able to challenge the shot was very swift and forceful. Then, on another play when he was pushed into the courtside photographers, he seemed to flex his knees briefly and then spin around to return to the court promptly. I think the coaching staff has done what appears to be a good job bringing him back gradually, but I believe that he is ready to "bust loose," for want of a better term. He seems to be a good teammate, cheering on others for good plays, and posting "Love my team" on his twitter site. I along with many other Duke fans are really pulling for it to all come together for Harry. I am somewhat concerned about Coach Capel's comments in the post-game presser on Saturday that(paraphrasing)HG may not get up to speed this year. I continue to be encouraged but obviously the coaches have an infinitely better perspective. I'm pulling for you, Harry!

[moonpie23]

as ami i.........this season is surreal.....

[kAzE]

I agree, and I think the breakout could be against Miami. He's had an entire week to practice, watch film, learn from his coaches and teammates, and rest and rehab.

In fact, I would disappointed if we didn't show significant improvement as a whole. As long as Harry shows some progress, we should start looking more like the team that played against Georgia Tech than the team that got run off the floor in Tallahassee. A fully healthy and confident Harry Giles is more than capable of rebounding like Amile. The defense will hopefully come with time. Let's hope 2 months is enough.

[Kedsy]

Although there's really no way to know for sure until it happens, but I feel that Harry may be on the verge of really raising his level of play in the very near future. I know that his absence from competitive basketball for 1+ years and the adjustments to Duke's defensive approach have somewhat limited his contributions to date, but I really like the recent trends. In 5 ACC contests he is averaging 16.6mpg, 7.6ppg and 6.6rpg(3 offensive boards/game), and he looks fluid and locked-in out on the court. His dunk against UL when Anas Mahmoud was in the immediate area but was not able to challenge the shot was very swift and forceful. Then, on another play when he was pushed into the courtside photographers, he seemed to flex his knees briefly and then spin around to return to the court promptly. I think the coaching staff has done what appears to be a good job bringing him back gradually, but I believe that he is ready to "bust loose," for want of a better term. He seems to be a good teammate, cheering on others for good plays, and posting "Love my team" on his twitter site. I along with many other Duke fans are really pulling for it to all come together for Harry. I am somewhat concerned about Coach Capel's comments in the post-game presser on Saturday that(paraphrasing)HG may not get up to speed this year. I continue to be encouraged but obviously the coaches have an infinitely better perspective. I'm pulling for you, Harry!

I thought Harry's play was encouraging against Louisville. He's getting closer. Maybe Coach Capel's right and he doesn't get all the way there this season, but just a small amount of improvement from where he is plus the durability (and foul control) to play 20+ mpg will be great for him and the team.

Right now, with no further improvement, his rebounding has been outstanding. His 20.2% ORB% is Zoubek territory, and his 21.8% DRB% is very strong, too. His usage is high (24.4%, same as Grayson) and his efficiency is low (46.2% true shooting %; 45.9% eFG%), but those have been getting better (62.5% eFG% over last three games). His assist percentage (8.0%) is good for a center, while his block rate (3.1%) is not so great. His foul rate (7.7 fouls per 40 minutes) is way too high. But the big place he needs to improve is positional defense. If he can improve some there, we have a very strong player, whether he gets to full strength or not.

Like you, I think it will happen soon.

[Wahoo2000]

I thought Harry's play was encouraging against Louisville. He's getting closer. Maybe Coach Capel's right and he doesn't get all the way there this season, but just a small amount of improvement from where he is plus the durability (and foul control) to play 20+ mpg will be great for him and the team.

Right now, with no further improvement, his rebounding has been outstanding. His 20.2% ORB% is Zoubek territory, and his 21.8% DRB% is very strong, too. His usage is high (24.4%, same as Grayson) and his efficiency is low (46.2% true shooting %; 45.9% eFG%), but those have been getting better (62.5% eFG% over last three games). His assist percentage (8.0%) is good for a center, while his block rate (3.1%) is not so great. His foul rate (7.7 fouls per 40 minutes) is way too high. But the big place he needs to improve is positional defense. If he can improve some there, we have a very strong player, whether he gets to full strength or not.

Like you, I think it will happen soon.

I saw a good amount of Giles play pre-Duke. Far and away the biggest asset to his game (to me) seemed to be his lateral quickness. I'm not sure if it's a physical issue due to the knee surgeries, a rust issue messing with his anticipation, or just a general lack of familiarity with Duke's schemes and knowing what he's supposed to be doing, but he looks MUCH slower this year. As good as modern medicine is these days, I'd think it's more of a rust or mental issue. Time will tell the tale though. If he gets up into the 250-300 minute range this season and you don't see more than a couple of flashes of brilliance, it may be that he has lost a step physically.

[Bob Green]

In fact, I would disappointed if we didn't show significant improvement as a whole.

Please do not set the bar too high. The word "significant" gives me pause. I'm with the OP and the rest of you who expect the breakout to happen anytime. However, I believe there is equal chance Giles' improvement continues slow and steady over the remainder of the season. His low post offensive skills and rebounding are evident he just needs to improve in the areas of defensive positioning and avoiding fouls.

[NYBri]

...

I am somewhat concerned about Coach Capel's comments in the post-game presser on Saturday that(paraphrasing)HG may not get up to speed this year. I continue to be encouraged but obviously the coaches have an infinitely better perspective.

I wonder if Coach Capel's comments are aimed at draft talent evaluators? We are all, and I think that the coach is as well, assuming HG is not coming back next year...and a statement like the one in his presser would help give those who are looking at him in the draft a reason not to judge his potential on his one year on the Duke court.

Just a thought.

[Furniture]

I love this thread! Thanks and I hope you are correct!!

[BD80]

I wonder if Coach Capel's comments are aimed at draft talent evaluators? We are all, and I think that the coach is as well, assuming HG is not coming back next year...and a statement like the one in his presser would help give those who are looking at him in the draft a reason not to judge his potential on his one year on the Duke court.

Just a thought.

Or Bill Belicheck-like disinformation? Why alert the ACC there is storm on the horizon?

[hallcity]

Please do not set the bar too high. The word "significant" gives me pause. I'm with the OP and the rest of you who expect the breakout to happen anytime. However, I believe there is equal chance Giles' improvement continues slow and steady over the remainder of the season. His low post offensive skills and rebounding are evident he just needs to improve in the areas of defensive positioning and avoiding fouls.

I'm not expecting or even hoping for a "breakout" game. I'm just hoping for steady improvement. Even if there is a game that looks like a "breakout" it will probably be followed by other games that don't look so breakoutish. Recovery takes time.

[jv001]

I thought Harry's play was encouraging against Louisville. He's getting closer. Maybe Coach Capel's right and he doesn't get all the way there this season, but just a small amount of improvement from where he is plus the durability (and foul control) to play 20+ mpg will be great for him and the team.

Right now, with no further improvement, his rebounding has been outstanding. His 20.2% ORB% is Zoubek territory, and his 21.8% DRB% is very strong, too. His usage is high (24.4%, same as Grayson) and his efficiency is low (46.2% true shooting %; 45.9% eFG%), but those have been getting better (62.5% eFG% over last three games). His assist percentage (8.0%) is good for a center, while his block rate (3.1%) is not so great. His foul rate (7.7 fouls per 40 minutes) is way too high. But the big place he needs to improve is positional defense. If he can improve some there, we have a very strong player, whether he gets to full strength or not.
Like you, I think it will happen soon.

Good post and your point(bolded) is what I'm hoping to see improvement in. He should be able to improve his positional defense because that's more mental than physical. I'm not sure if it's a problem of the game being too fast for Harry, or a problem of learning the Duke system. I imagine it's a little of both. I'm looking for some good things in the next two games. Playing at CIS should help his confidence level. GoDuke!

[rtnorthrup]

I'm not expecting or even hoping for a "breakout" game. I'm just hoping for steady improvement. Even if there is a game that looks like a "breakout" it will probably be followed by other games that don't look so breakoutish. Recovery takes time.

Pretty much this. Physically, I don't think we will see 100% Harry in his one year at Duke. There were a couple of plays against Louisville, where he simply didn't have that quick first lateral step. You can see he isn't there yet, with the knee. I do think his basketball skills will continue to improve throughout the season.

[Jeffrey]

I saw a good amount of Giles play pre-Duke. Far and away the biggest asset to his game (to me) seemed to be his lateral quickness.

Would you agree, Harry is the greatest basketball talent Duke has recruited? For years, I thought it was Grant, but Harry changed my mind.


As good as modern medicine is these days, I'd think it's more of a rust or mental issue.

I strongly agree. IMO, those who pass on him (if any) in the NBA draft will have great regret.

[kAzE]

Please do not set the bar too high. The word "significant" gives me pause. I'm with the OP and the rest of you who expect the breakout to happen anytime. However, I believe there is equal chance Giles' improvement continues slow and steady over the remainder of the season. His low post offensive skills and rebounding are evident he just needs to improve in the areas of defensive positioning and avoiding fouls.

When I said "as a whole," I was referring to the entire team. Harry is obviously going to come along at his own pace. Injuries are always a question mark.

As for the team, I do expect us to use this week to significantly improve. We have not played like a top 10 team in the past 2 games, but I think everyone knows that our ceiling is as high or higher than any team in the country. March isn't that far away. If we're going to become the team that we're supposed to be, an entire week of practice and film study in mid-January should result in significant improvement. I really believe we will play much better going forward. There's no other choice. We're 2-3 in the conference. It's time to start playing Duke basketball.

[Indoor66]

Would you agree, Harry is the greatest basketball talent Duke has recruited?

I usually agree with you, Jeffrey, and, someday may agree with you on the above. But as of today, Harry is far from "the greatest basketball talent Duke has recruited". I can think of many what were better, based on his performance to date.

That said, he can earn that opinion from me but he has a lot of work and performing to do. I do not buy into the high school rep stuff. Bring it on the court or don't raise it as an issue. So far, he has not brought it.

[Dukehky]

He's down to 18 in Draft Express. With the nature of next year's draft class... There's a chance.

[WVDUKEFAN]

I wish all of the Freshmen were on the verge of breaking out. I they are still aways from that point.

[Troublemaker]

He's down to 18 in Draft Express. With the nature of next year's draft class... There's a chance.

For coming back next season? There's close to 0 chance.

[Bob Green]

When I said "as a whole," I was referring to the entire team. Harry is obviously going to come along at his own pace. Injuries are always a question mark.

My attention to detail could use some improvement. You wrote "we" but I read "he" so thanks for the clarification.

[elvis14]

I constantly remind myself that even though Harry was the #1 rated recruit he didn't play for a very long time. Once I get that through my thick skull, it's pretty easy to see the improvement and be happy with where he's at. Each game he does something we haven't seen yet or just sustains his level of play for a longer period of time. Every now and then I've seen him make scoring look really easy with quick, decisive moves with his back to the basket. I think that if he stays healthy and continues his improvement, we'll be very happy with him come March. Sure, we'd love to see a 'breakout' game where he makes a big jump. If that happens, I'll consider it a pleasant surprise. In the mean time, I like that he's improving each game although I do admit that I'd really like to see more improvement where we really need it, on the defensive end of court.

[Sgt. Dingleberry]

Pretty much this. Physically, I don't think we will see 100% Harry in his one year at Duke. There were a couple of plays against Louisville, where he simply didn't have that quick first lateral step. You can see he isn't there yet, with the knee. I do think his basketball skills will continue to improve throughout the season.

Yeah, I don't mean to be Debby Downer, but I don't see a "breakout" happening. I agree with the quoted post. There was one play against UL where he was put in the pick and roll at the top of the key and he was trying to slide with the guard and he wasn't even close to being able to keep up, the guard just blew by him.

I agree that he will continue to improve, but my expectations aren't that high. I hope I'm wrong.

[slower]

I really believe we will play much better going forward. There's no other choice.
Actually, there are several other choices, including no improvement and playing worse.

[kAzE]

Actually, there are several other choices, including no improvement and playing worse.

I should have added " . . . if we hope to achieve our goals."

But I've always been an optimist.

[Nugget]

I saw a good amount of Giles play pre-Duke. Far and away the biggest asset to his game (to me) seemed to be his lateral quickness. I'm not sure if it's a physical issue due to the knee surgeries, a rust issue messing with his anticipation, or just a general lack of familiarity with Duke's schemes and knowing what he's supposed to be doing, but he looks MUCH slower this year. As good as modern medicine is these days, I'd think it's more of a rust or mental issue. Time will tell the tale though. If he gets up into the 250-300 minute range this season and you don't see more than a couple of flashes of brilliance, it may be that he has lost a step physically.

I agree with this - at least the first part. Harry currently looks like a shell of himself on defense -- essentially helpless in any situation where he's switched onto a smaller player or has to recover or adjust laterally quickly. I wish I could say he looks "on the verge" of returning to where he was, but I just don't see it. With as long as Harry has been out, I would hesitate to draw a conclusion whether he has "lost a step physically" on a permanent basis or not. But, as I think Coach Capel was alluding to, it seems unlikely that Harry will ever be fully "back" this season at Duke. He may not be fully recovered until next season in the NBA.

[arnie]

I usually agree with you, Jeffrey, and, someday may agree with you on the above. But as of today, Harry is far from "the greatest basketball talent Duke has recruited". I can think of many what were better, based on his performance to date.

That said, he can earn that opinion from me but he has a lot of work and performing to do. I do not buy into the high school rep stuff. Bring it on the court or don't raise it as an issue. So far, he has not brought it.

Yea we shouldnt assume greatness for all highly rated HS players and particularly those with double ACL surgeries.

I recall listening to Bob Gibbons rave about Shav. He compared Shav to Larry Bird and actually said any comparison to Bird might be an insult to Randolph. Many other cases - Chris Burgess and to lesser extent Mr. Harrison Barnes. As poster said upstream, hard to argue against Grant Hill and I'd put Elton in that group as well.

[DieHard]

I saw a good amount of Giles play pre-Duke. Far and away the biggest asset to his game (to me) seemed to be his lateral quickness. I'm not sure if it's a physical issue due to the knee surgeries, a rust issue messing with his anticipation, or just a general lack of familiarity with Duke's schemes and knowing what he's supposed to be doing, but he looks MUCH slower this year. As good as modern medicine is these days, I'd think it's more of a rust or mental issue. Time will tell the tale though. If he gets up into the 250-300 minute range this season and you don't see more than a couple of flashes of brilliance, it may be that he has lost a step physically.

I have had ACL replacement surgery on both my knees back when I though I was an athlete. For me, lateral quickness and explosiveness (first step) was the last to come back (if it ever did). The first step towards improvement is to ditch the knee brace, but that is part of the "mental trusting" you here people talking about. I wish the best for Giles, and as Wahoo said, sports medicine is light years ahead of when I went through it. I do think the complexity of what is required of a big man in Duke's defensive schemes is part of it. I tend to believe he will be fine and live up to the billing, hopefully in a Duke uniform. To state the obvious...having Amile's communication on court would help his learning curve.

[Jeffrey]

I usually agree with you, Jeffrey, and, someday may agree with you on the above. But as of today, Harry is far from "the greatest basketball talent Duke has recruited". I can think of many what were better, based on his performance to date.

That said, he can earn that opinion from me but he has a lot of work and performing to do. I do not buy into the high school rep stuff. Bring it on the court or don't raise it as an issue. So far, he has not brought it.

Pre-Duke (Wahoo2000's statement which I was addressing) , a healthy Harry impressed me even more than pre-Duke Grant. Harry certainly could not play all 5 positions like Grant in HS, but, IMO, Harry showed unbelievable talent at the 4 and 5 positions, still after his horrible injury.

I strongly agree, we have not started to see the pre-Duke Harry I repeatedly saw (who Wahoo2000 repeatedly saw, thus my question to him). This is why I was confident he would take Matt's starting spot (and surprised when only Troublemaker agreed). Our coaching staff obviously knows exactly what they have and, IMO, would have been foolish not to do all they can to see the real Harry in a Duke jersey.

Harry will not be around for the 18th pick. A lot of people saw pre-Duke Harry and I'd bet serious green he goes in the top 5. I think he could have just sat out this season and done that.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

No way he's top 5, or even top 10.

What surprises me most about Giles is the lack of any post offensive moves beyond using his quick bounce for a dump down pass for a dunk, or on put backs. He can rebound. He has the obvious athleticism that I'm sure his potential was based on, even with his injury. On his dunks he's explosive from a standing start.

I was expecting more shooting touch, some moves and just a more complete game from the guy that was talked about as a potential number 1 pick. He really needs to expand on his game before he tries the NBA, no way he's gonna be near ready after this year, but nobody can blame him if he takes his chances, and the money, if somebody wants to throw it at him.

Giles is the latest example of why I never trust the recruiting * system everybody loves to talk about. Same with Bolden. He's got the all airport look too, and game so far.

The player I really like this season is that Issac kid from FSU. I'd think hard about him at #1, there's a guy a little raw but with serious NBA potential.

[kAzE]

No way he's top 5, or even top 10.

What surprises me most about Giles is the lack of any post offensive moves beyond using his quick bounce for a dump down pass for a dunk, or on put backs. He can rebound. He has the obvious athleticism that I'm sure his potential was based on, even with his injury. On his dunks he's explosive from a standing start.

I was expecting more shooting touch, some moves and just a more complete game from the guy that was talked about as a potential number 1 pick. He really needs to expand on his game before he tries the NBA, no way he's gonna be near ready after this year, but nobody can blame him if he takes his chances, and the money, if somebody wants to throw it at him.

Giles is the latest example of why I never trust the recruiting * system everybody loves to talk about. Same with Bolden. He's got the all airport look too, and game so far.

The player I really like this season is that Issac kid from FSU. I'd think hard about him at #1, there's a guy a little raw but with serious NBA potential.

Wait, seriously? I was with you until that last part. Yeah, Isaac looks like he's got major potential. He's a top 10 pick, no question, but #1? Over Lonzo Ball or Markelle Fultz? You lost me there. He's all potential right now, and in this draft, I think there's enough can't miss guys at the top that you don't have to gamble on a project like Isaac until at least the bottom half of the top 10.

I like Ball with the #1 overall pick. He's got everything. Size, shooting, amazing feel for the game, and he's a true point guard who sees the floor and knows how to set up his teammates. He looks ready to play in the league already.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Wait, seriously? I was with you until that last part. Yeah, Isaac looks like he's got major potential. He's a top 10 pick, no question, but #1? Over Lonzo Ball or Markelle Fultz? You lost me there.

I like Ball with the #1 overall pick. He's got everything. Size, shooting, amazing feel for the game, and he's a true point guard who sees the floor and knows how to set up his teammates. He feels like a throwback with all these score-first point guards flooding the league nowadays.

I hear ya...those two are the real deal, and certainly worthy at #1 too.

But at his size, we might be looking at a potential Kevin Durant type talent in a couple of years.

Just looked...Bleacher report has him at #4...would take some faith to gamble on him at #1, but I'd sure consider it.

[Troublemaker]

No way he's top 5, or even top 10.

What surprises me most about Giles is the lack of any post offensive moves beyond using his quick bounce for a dump down pass for a dunk, or on put backs. He can rebound. He has the obvious athleticism that I'm sure his potential was based on, even with his injury. On his dunks he's explosive from a standing start.

I was expecting more shooting touch, some moves and just a more complete game from the guy that was talked about as a potential number 1 pick. He really needs to expand on his game before he tries the NBA, no way he's gonna be near ready after this year, but nobody can blame him if he takes his chances, and the money, if somebody wants to throw it at him.

Giles is the latest example of why I never trust the recruiting * system everybody loves to talk about. Same with Bolden. He's got the all airport look too, and game so far.

The player I really like this season is that Issac kid from FSU. I'd think hard about him at #1, there's a guy a little raw but with serious NBA potential.

Settle down. He's only 7 games back from major injury. It's very foolish to judge him so soon.

(And I actually like his shooting touch, and he has a jump hook.)

[Troublemaker]

I hear ya...those two are the real deal, and certainly worthy at #1 too.

But at his size, we might be looking at a potential Kevin Durant type talent in a couple of years.

Just looked...Bleacher report has him at #4...would take some faith to gamble on him at #1, but I'd sure consider it.

Isaac is a nice prospect and probably a worthy lottery pick. But he's nowhere near the monster Durant was in college, and it'd be very foolish to take him #1. (But let me guess -- he had a good game against UNC. Didn't watch.)

[UrinalCake]

What surprises me most about Giles is the lack of any post offensive moves beyond using his quick bounce for a dump down pass for a dunk, or on put backs... I was expecting more shooting touch, some moves and just a more complete game from the guy that was talked about as a potential number 1 pick.

I attribute his lack of post scoring mostly to rust. I've seen several examples of him making a good post move to get open, only to blow the easy layup. He hasn't shown very good touch on his shots and I'm hoping that's a matter of him getting his timing back. I suppose it's possible he just doesn't have good hands to begin with, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

The part of his game that seems completely absent to me is the ability to face up and take his man off the dribble. At least in the high school mix tapes that seemed like a real strength of his, we even saw him performing fancy crossover dribbles and taking the ball from coast to coast. Obviously you can't judge his play based off of mixtapes, but I saw him as someone with a good handle who could even develop into a 3 in the NBA.

In the limited time we've seen him on the court, I've seen none of that. Everything is posting up. Maybe that's the Duke coaches trying to turn him into a 5, or maybe he just doesn't trust his knee enough to drive with the ball, but I'm hoping his game does expand as Wheat said.

[kshepinthehouse]

Settle down. He's only 7 games back from major injury. It's very foolish to judge him so soon.

(And I actually like his shooting touch, and he has a jump hook.)

This, and he has yet to be featured in our offense. Wait until we dump it down to him on the low block and let him go to work. He hasn't gotten a lot of offensive opportunities yet in one on one scoring positions.

[Ultrarunner]

No way he's top 5, or even top 10.

What surprises me most about Giles is the lack of any post offensive moves beyond using his quick bounce for a dump down pass for a dunk, or on put backs. He can rebound. He has the obvious athleticism that I'm sure his potential was based on, even with his injury. On his dunks he's explosive from a standing start.

I was expecting more shooting touch, some moves and just a more complete game from the guy that was talked about as a potential number 1 pick. He really needs to expand on his game before he tries the NBA, no way he's gonna be near ready after this year, but nobody can blame him if he takes his chances, and the money, if somebody wants to throw it at him.

Giles is the latest example of why I never trust the recruiting * system everybody loves to talk about. Same with Bolden. He's got the all airport look too, and game so far.

The player I really like this season is that Issac kid from FSU. I'd think hard about him at #1, there's a guy a little raw but with serious NBA potential.

Disagree strongly with the bolded above, Wheat. He's made several nice moves to jump hooks. The issue Harry appears to have now is that he is rushing. When he settles down, he'll hit those. The basics are there but, as with the defense, it's moving too quickly for him - for now.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

I attribute his lack of post scoring mostly to rust. I've seen several examples of him making a good post move to get open, only to blow the easy layup. He hasn't shown very good touch on his shots and I'm hoping that's a matter of him getting his timing back. I suppose it's possible he just doesn't have good hands to begin with, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

The part of his game that seems completely absent to me is the ability to face up and take his man off the dribble. At least in the high school mix tapes that seemed like a real strength of his, we even saw him performing fancy crossover dribbles and taking the ball from coast to coast. Obviously you can't judge his play based off of mixtapes, but I saw him as someone with a good handle who could even develop into a 3 in the NBA.

In the limited time we've seen him on the court, I've seen none of that. Everything is posting up. Maybe that's the Duke coaches trying to turn him into a 5, or maybe he just doesn't trust his knee enough to drive with the ball, but I'm hoping his game does expand as Wheat said.

I never got to see him play pre injury.

Didn't mean to imply he had no post up game, just that for a guy that was talked about as a potential #1, I would have thought he would show better fundamental offensive moves...injury or not.

[NYBri]

I agree that I haven't seen the offense from HG. If he doesn't show it, how much will that effect his draft status? No idea, but if I have a lottery pick, I'm going to want to see some NBA moves before I pull the trigger.

Hypothetical, now, but if he slips out of the lottery, does he stay?

[Duke76]

Would you agree, Harry is the greatest basketball talent Duke has recruited? For years, I thought it was Grant, but Harry changed my mind.



I strongly agree. IMO, those who pass on him (if any) in the NBA draft will have great regret.

not anywhere close....Art Heyman, Gene Banks, Mike Gminski, Johnny Dawkins, Gran Hill, Kyrie Irving and Jahil Okafor, come to mind in front of him.

[jv001]

not anywhere close...Art Heyman, Gene Banks, Mike Gminski, Johnny Dawkins, Gran Hill, Kyrie Irving and Jahil Okafor, come to mind in front of him.

I would add Jeff Mullins, Danny Ferry, Bobby Hurley, and Elton Brand. There's probably more but I can't think of them right now. GoDuke!

[dukebluesincebirth]

A previous post in this thread talked about how taking the knee brace off was a major step in returning from ACL injury. This was my exact thought when I saw Harry return for his first game, not knowing exactly what to expect...my brother texted me, "he can't play with that brace on can he?" The things that I saw him do in high school that seem to be missing now are the dribbling/spinning/cutting moves with the ball that looked so fluid. All of these involve a high degree of flexibility and stress on the knee joints. I don't see how he can get anywhere near his high school level moves with the brace on, and I keep waiting to see him rip it off and play. I don't know if it's a mental thing to keep him feeling safe and free from re-injury (which i totally understand), or a medically recommended thing. If it's a medical recommendation by the doctors and it's staying on for the season, I just don't see Harry getting "up to speed" this year as Capel put it. It limits his movement and thus limits his range of moves, which were wide and dynamic in high school. Opponents know this and are going to take advantage as much as possible. I hope it can happen for him this year, but I'm not too confident that it will. If not, he should consider returning one more year to show how he can dominate a game as he did with healthy knees in high school. Then he could easily be the #1 pick.

[FadedTackyShirt]

I agree that I haven't seen the offense from HG. If he doesn't show it, how much will that effect his draft status? No idea, but if I have a lottery pick, I'm going to want to see some NBA moves before I pull the trigger.

Hypothetical, now, but if he slips out of the lottery, does he stay?

First round draft picks receive guaranteed contracts, so first vs second round is more relevant than lottery vs non-lottery.

[Ichabod Drain]

First round draft picks receive guaranteed contracts, so first vs second round is more relevant than lottery vs non-lottery.

Yea I've never really understood why lottery pick is a measuring stick for draft status. I guess it's just convenient since it's pretty much the top half of the first round.

Also Harry is gone.

[ChillinDuke]

I never got to see him play pre injury.

Didn't mean to imply he had no post up game, just that for a guy that was talked about as a potential #1, I would have thought he would show better fundamental offensive moves...injury or not.

ACL injuries are monster. You know that. We all know that. Not everyone is Adrian Peterson. Rather, MOST people are not Adrian Peterson. He's dealing with a combination of (a) recovery from ACL surgery to trust the knee(s) at full speed and contact and (b) adjusting to a completely different gear of basketball.

That combination, it strikes me, represents a brutal hill to climb, especially during ACC play. An interesting parallel may actually be one of our own: Jabari Parker, who tore his ACL early in his NBA career and had to deal with recovering from that while presumably still adjusting to the NBA game. He is just this year starting to break out - but it took time to get there.

Barring a major setback/injury, I think Giles will get there. But I admit that I did not fully consider the difficulty of Harry's situation during the offseason. This is major stuff he's dealing with, and I'm cautiously optimistic on further improvement. However, I now also hesitate to believe that he will reach "peak college level" during his lone year of college.

- Chillin

[Troublemaker]

ACL injuries are monster. You know that. We all know that. Not everyone is Adrian Peterson. Rather, MOST people are not Adrian Peterson. He's dealing with a combination of (a) recovery from ACL surgery to trust the knee(s) at full speed and contact and (b) adjusting to a completely different gear of basketball.

That combination, it strikes me, represents a brutal hill to climb, especially during ACC play. An interesting parallel may actually be one of our own: Jabari Parker, who tore his ACL early in his NBA career and had to deal with recovering from that while presumably still adjusting to the NBA game. He is just this year starting to break out - but it took time to get there.

Barring a major setback/injury, I think Giles will get there. But I admit that I did not fully consider the difficulty of Harry's situation during the offseason. This is major stuff he's dealing with, and I'm cautiously optimistic on further improvement. However, I now also hesitate to believe that he will reach "peak college level" during his lone year of college.

- Chillin

You know what really hurt in addition? That extra knee scope he had to do on the old injury. That knocked him out of fall practice and for most of the non-conference slate. If it were just the ACL recovery, he probably would've gotten his feet wet in college basketball by participating in summer practice in August. But that knee scope (and the problem that it solved) caused his feet-wetting stage to be delayed to mid-December.

[Jeffrey]

You know what really hurt in addition? That extra knee scope he had to do on the old injury. That knocked him out of fall practice and for most of the non-conference slate. If it were just the ACL recovery, he probably would've gotten his feet wet in college basketball by participating in summer practice in August. But that knee scope (and the problem that it solved) caused his feet-wetting stage to be delayed to mid-December.

Absolutely! IMO, recruits and their parents should ask themselves how many schools always place a player's long-term health first? And, how many of those few schools offer some of the best medical care in the world?

I suspect many schools would have tried to convince Harry to postpone the surgery, have a strong college showing, get drafted as high as possible, and then have the surgery.

[Jeffrey]

I am somewhat concerned about Coach Capel's comments in the post-game presser on Saturday that(paraphrasing)HG may not get up to speed this year. I continue to be encouraged but obviously the coaches have an infinitely better perspective. I'm pulling for you, Harry!

I have strong empathy for Jeff's situation. This opportunity will obviously be important in determining K's replacement. Losing Amile was brutal for Jeff. Knowing Harry's extreme talent may not be completely realized this season has to be highly frustrating.

I'd wager serious green Jeff's list of more talented Duke recruits is much shorter than most posters on this thread.

[ChillinDuke]

You know what really hurt in addition? That extra knee scope he had to do on the old injury. That knocked him out of fall practice and for most of the non-conference slate. If it were just the ACL recovery, he probably would've gotten his feet wet in college basketball by participating in summer practice in August. But that knee scope (and the problem that it solved) caused his feet-wetting stage to be delayed to mid-December.

Yeah, I think you're right and that's the straw that broke Harry's camel.

He may have been able to deal with one ACL recovery and adjusting to the level of college ball. May. But an ACL, college ball, and a scope? It's just asking a lot.

- Chillin

[billy]

You know what really hurt in addition? That extra knee scope he had to do on the old injury. That knocked him out of fall practice and for most of the non-conference slate. If it were just the ACL recovery, he probably would've gotten his feet wet in college basketball by participating in summer practice in August. But that knee scope (and the problem that it solved) caused his feet-wetting stage to be delayed to mid-December.

I agree the scope before the season set him back a bit. I disagree the brace has much of an impact on his play (as mentioned by others), at least not nearly as much as having not played any competitive basketball for 2 years. The lack of competition affects every aspect mentioned in the thread above - adjusting to the speed of the game, shooting touch, "moves", etc. It seems that we just assume he'll pick up his shooting touch right where he left off pre-injury. You can shoot all you want in a gym or in a non-contact practice situation, but that compared to competition are two very different things.

We can debate the brace vs. no brace thing indefinitely. Studies show no increased re-tear rate without a brace compared with a brace. Most of the time it is a mental thing in that the player just wants one. A custom ACL brace has minimal if any affect on mobility.

[wsb3]

You know what really hurt in addition? That extra knee scope he had to do on the old injury. That knocked him out of fall practice and for most of the non-conference slate. If it were just the ACL recovery, he probably would've gotten his feet wet in college basketball by participating in summer practice in August. But that knee scope (and the problem that it solved) caused his feet-wetting stage to be delayed to mid-December.

Exactly.

[MChambers]

It may be that we won't see Harry's true talent this year, but from what I've seen there's no way to know this. Now I'm a lawyer, not a sports rehabilitation expert, but I don't see any other experts weighing in here. Harry's made a lot of progress since his first game back. I'm optimistic he will continue to make great progress the rest of the season. If he does, Duke will be tough.

[sagegrouse]

Yea I've never really understood why lottery pick is a measuring stick for draft status. I guess it's just convenient since it's pretty much the top half of the first round.

Also Harry is gone.

Here's the 2016-2017 salary scale (first year only) by draft position. The decrement (Wow! Did I use it correctly?) begins at ten percent for the 2nd pick and declines to less than one percent for the bottom of the first round. Apparently, each first-round contract is for two years with a team option for the third and fourth year. Second-round contracts are not guaranteed, except that a number of second rounders get guaranteed money and guaranteed contracts.



Pick 1st Year Salary

1 $4,919,300
2 $4,401,400
3 $3,952,500
4 $3,563,600
5 $3,227,100
6 $2,931,000
7 $2,675,700
8 $2,451,200
9 $2,253,300
10 $2,140,500
11 $2,033,500
12 $1,931,900
13 $1,835,200
14 $1,743,500
15 $1,656,200
16 $1,573,500
17 $1,494,800
18 $1,420,100
19 $1,356,100
20 $1,301,900
21 $1,249,800
22 $1,199,900
23 $1,151,900
24 $1,105,800
25 $1,061,600
26 $1,026,300
27 $996,700
28 $990,700
29 $983,400
30 $976,300

[Highlander]

I personally have seen nothing from Giles on the court this season that would indicate he will be a successful NBA 4 or 5. He has more looked the part of a typical Duke freshman big man (e.g. Jeter, Jefferson, Plumlee, Thomas, etc.), not a can't miss 1 and dones like Kyrie, Jahlil, or Jabari. He could be dominant in 2-3 more years, but so far he has been quite underwhelming.

Now, I could certainly see Harry deciding to go pro at the end of the year if he can still get guaranteed $, and conventional wisdom says that he probably will because someone will take the gamble. But Giles certainly hasn't demonstrated to me that he is a can't miss NBA prospect. There is still time for Giles to move the needle, and I hope he does.

I guess you could put me in the "I'll believe it when I see it" camp w/r/t Giles's potential.

[killerleft]

I personally have seen nothing from Giles on the court this season that would indicate he will be a successful NBA 4 or 5. He has more looked the part of a typical Duke freshman big man (e.g. Jeter, Jefferson, Plumlee, Thomas, etc.), not a can't miss 1 and dones like Kyrie, Jahlil, or Jabari. He could be dominant in 2-3 more years, but so far he has been quite underwhelming.

Now, I could certainly see Harry deciding to go pro at the end of the year if he can still get guaranteed $, and conventional wisdom says that he probably will because someone will take the gamble. But Giles certainly hasn't demonstrated to me that he is a can't miss NBA prospect. There is still time for Giles to move the needle, and I hope he does.

I guess you could put me in the "I'll believe it when I see it" camp w/r/t Giles's potential.

I think you'd be in a teeny little camp. Nearly everyone else will realize that his potential to be a top pro is without question. Whether he knocks off the rust or trusts his legs to "be all they can be" in time to help Duke win a natty is a question mark, for sure.

He's a great young man by all accounts I've seen. Good luck, Mr. Giles.

[uh_no]

I personally have seen nothing from Giles on the court this season that would indicate he will be a successful NBA 4 or 5. He has more looked the part of a typical Duke freshman big man (e.g. Jeter, Jefferson, Plumlee, Thomas, etc.), not a can't miss 1 and dones like Kyrie, Jahlil, or Jabari. He could be dominant in 2-3 more years, but so far he has been quite underwhelming.

Now, I could certainly see Harry deciding to go pro at the end of the year if he can still get guaranteed $, and conventional wisdom says that he probably will because someone will take the gamble. But Giles certainly hasn't demonstrated to me that he is a can't miss NBA prospect. There is still time for Giles to move the needle, and I hope he does.

I guess you could put me in the "I'll believe it when I see it" camp w/r/t Giles's potential.


the NBA game is different enough that it's not uncommon to be mediocre in college and have major success in the NBA:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andre_Drummond

[CDu]

Yeah, I think you're right and that's the straw that broke Harry's camel.

He may have been able to deal with one ACL recovery and adjusting to the level of college ball. May. But an ACL, college ball, and a scope? It's just asking a lot.

- Chillin

I don't think the scope did anything but delay the start of his progression. The problem is that the timing of the scope meant he fell even further behind. Probably 2+ months behind. The big deal is that recovering from 2 ACL surgeries is hard. Returning from one is hard (sadly I am familiar). Now he has two knees he is cognizant of. And on top of that, his first game action since the second tear was against better/more organized comp than he has ever faced.

The scope added an inconvenience in that he is now 2+ months behind where he would have been. Had he not needed the scope, he would probably be starting to round into form in December. Maybe not fully trusting his knees yet, but at least catching up to the speed of the game and where to be on the floor at least. But now he is still figuring out the pace/quality of play on top of trying to gain trust in the knee.

Hopefully he figures out the flow of the college game within the next couple of weeks. Whether or not he gets confidence in his knees this year remains to be seen.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Settle down. He's only 7 games back from major injury. It's very foolish to judge him so soon.

(And I actually like his shooting touch, and he has a jump hook.)

It makes just as much sense to label Giles a bust after 7 games as it does to label Bolden "best Duke big man ever" after the Blue/White game.

Seriously, instant analysis makes me feel old and tired.

[TruBlu]

It makes just as much sense to label Giles a bust after 7 games as it does to label Bolden "best Duke big man ever" after the Blue/White game.

Seriously, instant analysis makes me feel old and tired.

Me too. Although BEING old and tired is what really makes me feel old and tired.

[devilsince1977]

I have seen flashes of what he can be. He is dealing with the speed of the game and not trusting his knees. Throw in conditioning along with the fall knee scope; and you get a kid several months behind.

Any GM that passes on him after the 5th pick will be looking for a job in 2 years. I hope he drops to the mid teens. He can then get on a playoff ready team instead of pushing up daises in Philly, Orland, Charlotte, or Brooklyn.

[moonpie23]

Now I'm a lawyer, not a sports rehabilitation expert,


that's the guy that will take either side, right? :cool:

[Kedsy]

Any GM that passes on him after the 5th pick will be looking for a job in 2 years.

How high Harry goes in the draft may be dependent on how he does in his pre-draft physicals.

[Steven43]

It makes just as much sense to label Giles a bust after 7 games as it does to label Bolden "best Duke big man ever" after the Blue/White.
It would probably be a good idea in the future to get your facts straight before making similar proclamations. Not one poster on DBR--not one--said anything about Bolden being "best Duke big man ever". The only comments were about Bolden's combination of height, weight, bulk and ability to run the court.

No one said anything about how well he can actually play the game of basketball. It's perplexing that you would resurrect the same incorrect point you made months ago. Perhaps you should let it go. Just sayin'.

[DukieInBrasil]

It makes just as much sense to label Giles a bust after 7 games as it does to label Bolden "best Duke big man ever" after the Blue/White game.

Wow, you really destroyed the stuffing out of that straw man. Well done.

[Sixthman]

You can recruit potential, the NBA can draft potential, you can work to develop potential, but once February comes in the college basketball season, you can't play potential. The window is getting pretty tight. I don't know who gives Duke the best chance to win on the court, but I figure the coaches do, and anybody who does not will not be playing much come February.

[BandAlum83]

You can recruit potential, the NBA can draft potential, you can work to develop potential, but once February comes in the college basketball season, you can't play potential. The window is getting pretty tight. I don't know who gives Duke the best chance to win on the court, but I figure the coaches do, and anybody who does not will not be playing much come February.

I gotta agree with you there. It's why we see K drop down to 7.5 players most years, I would imagine.

[Steven43]

Wow, you really destroyed the stuffing out of that straw man. Well done.

Nicely done! I laughed out loud after reading your comment.😃

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Nicely done! I laughed out loud after reading your comment.😃

Yup you guys got me good.

I didn't mean it as a personal attack on anyone in particular and I am sorry if you read it that way.

I meant is as an instant analysis situation, where people looks at last night's game and project forward to infinity. It isn't about Giles or Bolden, it isn't about this Duke team, and it really has nothing to do with Steven43 even if you read it that way.

It has to do with Colin Cowherd, ESPN, talk radio, and the sports entertainment complex that has to find something remarkable to say every morning about what happened last night. It is about making knee jerk statements and snap judgments on Twitter.

More to the point, I just said it makes me tired.

Here's my hot take (it isn't very outlandish, I will warn you): Bolden and Giles will be much better in another month. Panic is undue.

Now, please go back to educating me about straw men. I promise to pay close attention.

Let's go Duke!

[Bob Green]

I'll draw everyone's attention to the Yellow Banner Announcement at the top of the page.

[MartyClark]

Yup you guys got me good.


It has to do with Colin Cowherd, ESPN, talk radio, and the sports entertainment complex that has to find something remarkable to say every morning about what happened last night. It is about making knee jerk statements and snap judgments on Twitter.


I stopped listening to Colin Cowherd some time ago. In his favor, he often spoke well of Duke. That, however, didn't make up for an endless barrage of ego driven nonsense.

I recall him saying that he didn't pay much attention to college basketball until March. A lot of these guys don't. They are short on facts and long on opinions.

So, I probably got off on a tangent here but I agree with you on Cowherd.

[Utley]

Perhaps this should have been a thread about Bolden :). It's starting to look like he is going to be the more physically ready of the two - but things change quickly.

The other thing we are missing is regular post play O. If we could ever get teams to have worry about too there would be no stopping us. As is, our O now really is way different after a made basket when the d is set and transitions,

[Neals384]

Not yet.

[elvis14]

One thing you get from freshman is inconsistency. Last night Bolden was great and Giles wasn't. Hopefully next game they are both great. Really happy for Bolden...loved seeing the big smile on his face.

[moonpie23]

from my experience in the music business, trust me when i tell you that the "verge" can be huge.....

[Devilwin]

Harry's biggest problem seems to be lateral movement. Very tentative in that area. With the knee problems the kid has endured, it's no wonder. But I believe it will come. I guess it's a feeling out process, who knows? But his potential is enormous, and I believe we will see it before long. Let him have one good 20 point, ten rebound game, and look out!

[Listen to Quants]

from my experience in the music business, trust me when i tell you that the "verge" can be huge....

Laughs, thanks for that comment. The verge is vast. Or not. Totally unpredictable but great fun to anticipate and even more fun to watch if/when upside exits happen.

[6th Man]

It really seemed to me last night that Giles still has a long way to go physically. If you watch highlights of him in high school he looked so much more explosive. Last night there was a big difference watching Bolden defensively and watching Giles defensively and it had to do with lateral movement. I think his lift is nowhere near where it is was either. I really like Giles and his attitude so I hope all of that comes back. I definitely don't seem him as a bust, but someone trying to get himself back physically. I don't know if Bolden can continue to build on last night, but it is clear Bolden playing at the level he did last night needs to be playing the bulk of the minutes.

[DUKIE V(A)]

I have no idea how much Giles is physically limited at this point, but he certainly seems to be playing at less than 100 percent. The mental aspect of adjusting to the college game and the lack of playing time over the last 18 months are also huge factors. Count me amongst those who think Giles will be a bigtime contributor down the stretch as gets in better shape and gets more college game experience. (Just last year Brandon exploded the second half of his freshman campaign.) I doubt Giles will ever be at 100 percent at Duke (unless he decides another year in college is the way to go) but that does not mean he can't be a positive factor on this team. I believe he will be and that the team as a whole will be vastly improved over the next two months.