NCAA. Not negative - how many wins to make the tournament ?

[gofurman]

Not chicken little. Just a question. A few people have been negative so I'll bite.... Ok, for fun, how many wins does Duke need to make the NCAA? A fun exercise. Kind of. Lol

I'd say we are in the NCAA EASY at 9-9 in the ACC. A lock. At 14-4 now (2-3) then 9-9 conference finish leaves us at 21-10. Duke easily gets in at 21-10. Easy. Maybe at 20-11. Which is 8-10 in the ACC. Now some depends on who you beat (good to have quality wins) and who you lost to (bad losses hurt more)

We already have varying level quality wins over Florida, Rhode Island and MSU. Those are good to very good.

Losses to VT (without Grayson), top 10 Kansas by 2, FSU by 16 (top 20 team), and Louisville by 9 (top 15 team). Not sure how long they will excuse it but these last two losses are without Amile. If Amile returns and we look better then they do put an asterisk beside the early losses


Thoughts?? Interested in your opinions. I don't see anyway they don't take a 20 win Duke team. Especially considering the acc is super hard this year.

[gofurman]

A little more. If we lose at home - right now UNC and FSU look probable, any could happen.... Any! It's a nasty league this year. The easiest possible on road are Wake, Cuse, Miami in my opinion where we could grab an extra. Look, I am not saying the sky is falling. Just an exercise to calm the craziness on off week (which I think is a good time for off week)


Want to say the ACC is super tough this year and that does help us some. But also ANY game is tough on the road. Any and all. Unc escaped Clemson in ot and Wake. As someone else posted, almost no one is winning on the road games

[Devilwin]

Considering how tough the league is, 20, 21 should get us there. But we need the wins first...

[OldPhiKap]

My guess is that all ACC teams that finish .500 or better in the league are in; a game below is a sweat; and below that may be NIT bound or done.

[CDu]

A 9-9 ACC mark will get us in for sure.

There is very little reason to worry we won't get in.

[ricks68]

If this is not negativity, then what is? I suggest we wait until the results of the next few games until weighing in on this. Then we can think about adding a new Swamp Quitmore monument to our Mount Hatemore monument.😝😨

ricks

[mattman91]

its over.

[gofurman]

If this is not negativity, then what is? I suggest we wait until the results of the next few games until weighing in on this. Then we can think about adding a new Swamp Quitmore monument to our Mount Hatemore monument.😝😨

ricks

Not negative. I had seen a few posts indicating 'we better worry about making the tourney' or some such. Chicken little. I was trying to be reasonable and show all Duke has to do is go 9-9 in acc and they are a lock for NCAA. That's all. Nothing more.

On the other hand, every acc game without Amile is going to be tough. He means that much. I wouldn't be surprised if we lost at Wake without him. Unc escaped at wake. So did Clemson

[Wander]

If we get Jefferson back healthy, we'll be fine. Calm your nerves, we'll be a lock with no bad losses and good enough wins (and yes, 9-9 will definitely get us in).

The concern is more about seeding. Even if we do put it all together and go on a run, we may have to get to the Final Four as a 4 seed.

[CDu]

If we get Jefferson back healthy, we'll be fine. Calm your nerves, we'll be a lock with no bad losses and good enough wins (and yes, 9-9 will definitely get us in).

The concern is more about seeding. Even if we do put it all together and go on a run, we may have to get to the Final Four as a 4 seed.

Spot on.

[uh_no]

If this is not negativity, then what is? I suggest we wait until the results of the next few games until weighing in on this. Then we can think about adding a new Swamp Quitmore monument to our Mount Hatemore monument.😝😨

ricks

given that KP currently projects us at 10-8 in conference...and that's WITH amile for much of the weight, then I hardly think the discussion of finishing <.500 in conference is unwarranted. If the team continues to play as they have, we very well could be looking at the bubble.

In short there are a wide range of possibilities.

side 1...all these are reasonable possibilities
amile's career is over
harry gets reinjured, or is otherwise ineffective
none of the other big men come around
tatum continues to black hole
we don't make adjustments on defense

If all those things happen, we could reasonably miss the tournament.

side 2...also all reasonable
amile is back next week
harry becomes more and more confident and can stay out on the floor longer, and plays up to the talent he has
bolden starts providing useful minutes
jayson becomes more selective, meaning fewer low-efficiency posessions
the defense gels just a little bit...as we saw hints of against FSU early

If all those things happen, we're looking at a possible ACC title and deep run

Reality will almost assuredly be somewhere in between...but there is no harm in discussing the gamut of possibilities in an objective manner, which is what's going on here.

[brevity]

If this is not negativity, then what is?

Every postgame thread?

As I understand it, the concern here can be translated as "A bunch of fans are freaking out, and a bunch of fans think we'll be fine. I don't think I should worry just yet, but in NCAA Tournament bubble terms, at what point should I worry?"

That's not a bad question. So far the answer has been laid out in terms of Duke's regular season record, which is fine, but can be a long wait. I think you can reasonably worry in an earlier timeframe if we lose multiple home games (to anybody) or multiple road games (to teams that are clearly lower-tier).

This week, for example, was not a worrisome week with regards to Duke's tournament chances. Two road losses to Top 15 teams that will likely end up in the upper half of the regular season hierarchy. There are legitimate worries: freshman development, team chemistry, defense, the Grayson-adjacent noise. But none of that threatens the whole season. You may predict that it does, and you eventually may be right, but saying it now serves little purpose and satisfies no one.

I deliberately left off injuries to Amile Jefferson and Coach K, which are the only factors out there that really could make or break the season. It's not really worth speculating on either, as any information is made available to us when the principals desire it, and no sooner.

[ipatent]

The top forty-some in the Pomeroy rankings will get in, and Duke is eleventh right now.

[YmoBeThere]

Five wins at most. The ACC Tourney winner is still an automatic qualifier.

[UrinalCake]

I think it depends WHEN those wins happen. If we lose our next six games but then K comes back and everyone gets healthy and we win the next seven after that, putting us at 9-9, then we're looking pretty good. I think the NCAA would factor in all of those injuries including K's and look at how we're playing more recently. They wouldn't totally ignore the first 3/4 of the season, but they would take it into account.

OTOH if we play pretty much the same for the rest of the season, beat the lower teams but lose to all of the top teams, and we still wind up at 9-9 and lose in the first round of the ACCT, then we could definitely get left out. Right now our best win is probably Florida. I haven't done the math to see how the rest of the schedule would shake out, but if that ends up being our best win for the season then that's not much.

[gofurman]

Every postgame thread?

As I understand it, the concern here can be translated as "A bunch of fans are freaking out, and a bunch of fans think we'll be fine. I don't think I should worry just yet, but in NCAA Tournament bubble terms, at what point should I worry?"

That's not a bad question. So far the answer has been laid out in terms of Duke's regular season record, which is fine, but can be a long wait. I think you can reasonably worry in an earlier timeframe if we lose multiple home games (to anybody) or multiple road games (to teams that are clearly lower-tier).

This week, for example, was not a worrisome week with regards to Duke's tournament chances. Two road losses to Top 15 teams that will likely end up in the upper half of the regular season hierarchy. There are legitimate worries: freshman development, team chemistry, defense, the Grayson-adjacent noise. But none of that threatens the whole season. You may predict that it does, and you eventually may be right, but saying it now serves little purpose and satisfies no one.

I deliberately left off injuries to Amile Jefferson and Coach K, which are the only factors out there that really could make or break the season. It's not really worth speculating on either, as any information is made available to us when the principals desire it, and no sooner.

exactly. It's just a reasonable / objective question. Nothing more. Something of interest on a site where I often see 30 pages debating a possible high school kid's decision - a guy who may never turn out to be good or suit Up for us... And, as uh_no pointed out, it is possible that Amile never returns. If that is the case we are in for some tough tough games even at home. Look at the second half of BC. That's our one example of not having Amile at home. BC outplayed us that half. BC ! Worst team in the conference possibly

But I sincerely hope Amile returns and we win the national title. Absolutely ! I was just looking at the schedule (literally going game by game) and saw similar things to uh_no. It's completely wide open at this point from final four to no tourney.

[westwall]

[IF]the defense gels just a little bit...as we saw hints of against FSU early


Did you mean "against Louisville early"?? I thought the "hints" were much more evident in that game.

[uh_no]

Did you mean "against Louisville early"?? I thought the "hints" were much more evident in that game.

yes yes. good catch.

[jipops]

I'm predicting we go 8-5 the rest of the way. That would put us at 22-9. We're in with that. The seed would be pretty bad though. It would not be a first round game to look forward to.

[gofurman]

I'm predicting we go 8-5 the rest of the way. That would put us at 22-9. We're in with that. The seed would be pretty bad though. It would not be a first round game to look forward to.

A 22-9 Duke team would probably be a 6 seed? Right now we are kenpom number 11. 8-5 the rest of the way probably makes us ranked twenty fith or so?

[uh_no]

I'm predicting we go 8-5 the rest of the way. That would put us at 22-9. We're in with that. The seed would be pretty bad though. It would not be a first round game to look forward to.

that's probably a fair assessment.

[rsvman]

Even if we are a 6 seed (which I don't think is going to happen, but it could), we would still be only 4 wins away from the Final Four. Syracuse did it just last year. Heck, UNC went to the Final Four one year when I think they had 10 or 11 regular season losses and were clearly on the bubble. UConn won the title after finishing 5th in the conference and had to win their conference tournament to avoid the NIT. VCU went to the Final Four on a year when they probably SHOULDN'T have gotten an invitation at all.

Point is that anything can happen. if a team gels at the right time, it can play far above its seeding. Especially a team like this one that is loaded with talent but hasn't had time (because of injuries, etc) to put it all together just yet.

[Troublemaker]

Even if we are a 6 seed (which I don't think is going to happen, but it could), we would still be only 4 wins away from the Final Four. Syracuse did it just last year. Heck, UNC went to the Final Four one year when I think they had 10 or 11 regular season losses and were clearly on the bubble. UConn won the title after finishing 5th in the conference and had to win their conference tournament to avoid the NIT. VCU went to the Final Four on a year when they probably SHOULDN'T have gotten an invitation at all.

Point is that anything can happen. if a team gels at the right time, it can play far above its seeding. Especially a team like this one that is loaded with talent but hasn't had time (because of injuries, etc) to put it all together just yet.

Yep. Playing well and having good health heading into mid-March is the most important thing for this team. We can do a lot of damage no matter what seed we get if those things are true.

That said, I don't as of yet rule out getting a high seed. We need to win these two upcoming home games and get on a roll.

[Bob Green]

Point is that anything can happen. if a team gels at the right time, it can play far above its seeding. Especially a team like this one that is loaded with talent but hasn't had time (because of injuries, etc) to put it all together just yet.

I wasn't going to post in this thread because I do view it as a negative, Chicken Little thread, but rsvman makes such an excellent point about injuries and timing that I am compelled to acknowledge him. Reputation points sent your way, sir!

Al Featherston has an excellent article posted on the front page on this very topic:

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2017/1/16/14282800/riding-out-the-storm-duke-basketball

Here is the money quote:


But it’s still too early to give up on this team (as many DBR posters seem to have done). This team could still win the national championship.

Let's have some faith folks!

[wsb3]

I don't consider this to be a negative thread.

Call me overly cautious but each year that conference play begins I think about winning enough games to get in the tournament. Things can turn quickly in either direction.

The ironic part is that last year I worried about us winning enough games to get in.. Coach K did too.. We were so thin & after losing Amile..I held my breath that we would not lose another player & fortunately we did not & I think last year was a really good year coming off a Natty & losing all the players we did. This year with all the talent we were a given to be in & a high seed..Final Four bound.. But everything that could go wrong seems to have done just that.

In 66 Duke won their third ACC tourney in 4 years..along with 3 trips to the final four & for many of us a Bob Verga illness away from that possibly being the first Natty. We did not win another ACC Championship until the magic of 78 & had a very bad period of some bad teams.

In 94 we played in the National Championship & the next year the infamous 95 season where we finished in last place in the conference.

Couple of examples of how things can turn.

I know we are spoiled by success...Please note I said we.. What seed we may be is the last thing on my mind right now. I just am hoping we get well..right the ship..& get in the tournament.

10-8 in the conference would be good with me right now & everyone healthy going into tourney play.

Regardless of how the season plays out I am most grateful for all the success we have enjoyed over the years. I will remain that way..

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

its over.

Yes, I have moved on to recruiting 2020 anxiety and proactively looking for names that make good beer puns.

[OldPhiKap]

I don't consider this to be a negative thread.

Call me overly cautious but each year that conference play begins I think about winning enough games to get in the tournament. Things can turn quickly in either direction.



Yup.

A tournament berth is not a birthright. This is a tough conference in bad years, a crazy tough conference in years like this. All road games are tough, and it is imperative to hold home court each time out.

By the same token, I'm not sure there are many -- or even any -- who have given up the way Al F. states. Maybe I just skip those posts though.

The sky is the limit for this team. Still. But right now, we are tied for tenth place in the conference. So far, i would say that we won the two home games we should have won; lost two road games that are not unreasonable (although looked pretty bad at Louisville); and lost a road game that would have been nice to win in Blacksburg. End of the world? Certainly not. Indicia of a juggernaut? Certainly not either.

We get a week off to prepare to host Miami, then games hosting State; @ Wake, @ ND. both the home games and the road games are Sat/Mon turnarounds. Need to hold home service this week, then we have two road games of the sort that we will need to win if we are going to get a good seed. But all of those games are going to be tough, and we will get all of their best shots.

[subzero02]

I didn't want to start a separate thread for this; does anyone have a list of the first and 2nd round sites based upon the regions they are tied to?

[Troublemaker]

I didn't want to start a separate thread for this; does anyone have a list of the first and 2nd round sites based upon the regions they are tied to?

Those sites aren't tied to the regions (unless something has changed that I'm not aware of). So Duke could be placed in the MidWest region and still play in Greenville for the Rounds of 64 and 32, for example.

Here are the list of sites. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NCAA_Men%27s_Division_I_Basketball_Tournament #2017_NCAA_Tournament_schedule_and_venues)

[subzero02]

Those sites aren't tied to the regions (unless something has changed that I'm not aware of). So Duke could be placed in the MidWest region and still play in Greenville for the Rounds of 64 and 32, for example.

Here are the list of sites. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NCAA_Men%27s_Division_I_Basketball_Tournament #2017_NCAA_Tournament_schedule_and_venues)

Each site features 2 4 teams pods from 2 different regions... are the 2 regional associations for each first and second round site not made until the brackets are released?

[gofurman]

I don't consider this to be a negative thread.

Call me overly cautious but each year that conference play begins I think about winning enough games to get in the tournament. Things can turn quickly in either direction.

The ironic part is that last year I worried about us winning enough games to get in.. Coach K did too.. We were so thin & after losing Amile..I held my breath that we would not lose another player & fortunately we did not & I think last year was a really good year coming off a Natty & losing all the players we did. This year with all the talent we were a given to be in & a high seed..Final Four bound.. But everything that could go wrong seems to have done just that.

In 66 Duke won their third ACC tourney in 4 years..along with 3 trips to the final four & for many of us a Bob Verga illness away from that possibly being the first Natty. We did not win another ACC Championship until the magic of 78 & had a very bad period of some bad teams.

In 94 we played in the National Championship & the next year the infamous 95 season where we finished in last place in the conference.

Couple of examples of how things can turn.

I know we are spoiled by success...Please note I said we.. What seed we may be is the last thing on my mind right now. I just am hoping we get well..right the ship..& get in the tournament.

10-8 in the conference would be good with me right now & everyone healthy going into tourney play.

Regardless of how the season plays out I am most grateful for all the success we have enjoyed over the years. I will remain that way..

EXACTLY. I started this thread. It is Not negative. Rather, it's a view of do we NEED to do and what CAN we accomplish?

To assume we always make the tournament is a thing of entitlement. No one is guaranteed anything. No one. I am looking at you 2010 NIT UNC and (year?) NIT Kentucky ! And this team we have honestly has the most 'spread' of any team in recent history. No Amile. No improvement on D. We could miss the tourney. Amile returns to health (PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE) and the team gels? Final four potential. On the evil side UNC is a Joel Berry injury away from not being a serious contender... Injuries can change anything (Kenyon Martin). No one is guaranteed anything. Which is why we should really enjoy the good years - you see, this is a very positive thread.

And I was just thinking out loud that at X level of wins (?) we get in the tourney ... At Y level we get a top 5 seed ... Etc

Thank you to OldPhiKap and wsb3 for understanding. It's an issue of not feeling that something is a birthright. The 94/95 example is perfect. National Finalist in 94. No tourney in 95. And that was before One and Done !!!! Now it's even harder to keep team continuity after a great year. Back in the 90s you could win a title and only lose your upperclassmen

[Troublemaker]

Each site features 2 4 teams pods from 2 different regions... are the 2 regional associations for each first and second round site not made until the brackets are released?

I believe so, because they have to wait and see where the protected seeds land in the bracket.

For example, last season, the Brooklyn site was used to serve Villanova (#2 seed, South region) +3 teams and WVU (#3 seed, East region) +3 teams.

[gofurman]

Quick question. What does the committee use to select and seed teams for the tournament now? RPI I think? Do they still look at last 10 games? AP rank?

Thanks for the help - I can't recall exactly. Though I think RPI is a big one and Kenpom isn't officially used ?

Thx

[uh_no]

Quick question. What does the committee use to select and seed teams for the tournament now? RPI I think? Do they still look at last 10 games? AP rank?

Thanks for the help - I can't recall exactly. Though I think RPI is a big one and Kenpom isn't officially used ?

Thx

whatever they want, pretty much. It's generally recognized that they don't use RPI directly, but only record v rpi25, record vrpi50.

They do have access to other rankings if they want (KP, SAG).

They've been clear that they consider recent wins, but also clear that they consider overall resume. AP rank has no bearing, but rarely is the media so far off that a ranked team is left out of the field.

But in essence, they can do whatever they want, and there is almost assuredly a way to justify it, even if that criteria changes from team to team and year to year.

Seeding is done up front...they rank all teams 1-68. It's generally said that the top 2 seeds get their location of preference (which used to just be closest site, but teams now have some input to site preference), and the third and fourth seeds help balance the overall strength of the top four. It seems, however, that in previous years they've bent towards site preference for the third seed...which can lead to some nasty brackets with a tough 1-2-3 (given that doesn't matter as much to the 1 seed, since they can only play one of 2 and 3).

After that, the other teams are slotted in using the S curve, with modifications made to adhere to the bracketing rules (teams from same conference can't meet before elite 8, unless too many, in which case they can't meet in first round, max 3 teams in a region (I think) from one conference, BYU can't play sunday...etc), which could involve moving a team up or down a line. I recall they said they try to move seeds around less than they used to after some pretty atrocious resseedings gave teams tougher or easier matchups.

[duketaylor]

Excellent article and totally agree; sometimes I think some fans forget about the rough stretches. I remember them as the catalysts for some amazing turnarounds and successes. I hold great hope for this team. GO DEVILS!!

[OldPhiKap]

Excellent article and totally agree; sometimes I think some fans forget about the rough stretches. I remember them as the catalysts for some amazing turnarounds and successes. I hold great hope for this team. GO DEVILS!!

2015 -- a couple of really ugly losses and the loss of Rasheed; switch to zone at Louisville; regroup and really click at the end. National Championship.

1991 -- get absolutely annihilated by Carolina in the ACC Final -- twenty point loss -- go out and win the NCAA, including epic wins over UNLV and Roy's Kansas team.

I imagine there are some who do not remember when the ACC was like this every night. This is a brutal conference this year, reminiscent of the mid-80's. Every road game is a challenge. Every home win is precious. Not all losses are by less than five points; sometimes you get smacked silly.

Enjoy the ride. If we get healthy and hit at the right time, we're fine. If not, well -- we're not anyway.

Carpe Diem. Go to Hellius Caroliniass. Let's go Duke!

[TexHawk]

Each site features 2 4 teams pods from 2 different regions... are the 2 regional associations for each first and second round site not made until the brackets are released?

I think you have to be in the Top 3 or 4 in a region to get preference, regardless of the region itself. So Duke could be in the West region, but still competing with UNC, WVU, UVA, and maybe South Carolina for Greensboro.

Duke as a #4 seed would still be very dangerous, especially if you can get slated into the New York region with Nova (probably). That's probably preferred to San Jose (UCLA, Gonzaga, or Oregon), KC (KU or Baylor), or Memphis (UK).

[freshmanjs]

I think you have to be in the Top 3 or 4 in a region to get preference, regardless of the region itself. So Duke could be in the West region, but still competing with UNC, WVU, UVA, and maybe South Carolina for Greensboro.

Duke as a #4 seed would still be very dangerous, especially if you can get slated into the New York region with Nova (probably). That's probably preferred to San Jose (UCLA, Gonzaga, or Oregon), KC (KU or Baylor), or Memphis (UK).

Agree with the preference. Impact of time zone on athletic performance is under appreciated but research shows it matters a lot. This could matter if a west coast team makes the final 4 by the way.

[MarkD83]

The discussion has been about making the tournament but we do have to examine the unbalanced schedule and see how Duke ended up at 2-3.

The three losses are all on the road and two of them to top 15 teams. The other game against VT is a bit of an anomaly, VT is playing great and Duke was in a bit of disarray at the time.

So, what record would the winner of the ACC have and what about the top 4 who get byes in the ACC tournament.

ND has no losses and FSU & UNC each have a loss and Duke plays ND, UNC twice and FSU at home so Duke can still catch ND and FSU since..... FSU still has two games against ND and a game against Louisville as well as road games at Clemson, Miami and Pittsburgh. ND still has the two FSU games and also plays UVA, UNC and Louisville.

If Duke is aiming for an ACC tournament bye then they don't have to win "all" of these games just a few of them and the other teams will beat each other up.

My guess is the ACC champion will have 5 losses (13-5) and the 4th place team 7 losses (11-7).

Here is Duke's schedule and my path to the needed 13 wins.

Miami (Home) W
NC State (Home) W
Wake Forest (Away) W
Notre Dame (Away) L (ugh)
Pittsburgh (Home) W
North Carolina (Home) W
Clemson (Home) W
Virginia (Away) L (ugh)
Wake Forest (Home) W
Syracuse (Away) W
Miami (Away) W
Florida State (Home) W
North Carolina (Away) W

[Edouble]

The discussion has been about making the tournament but we do have to examine the unbalanced schedule and see how Duke ended up at 2-3.

The three losses are all on the road and two of them to top 15 teams. The other game against VT is a bit of an anomaly, VT is playing great and Duke was in a bit of disarray at the time.

So, what record would the winner of the ACC have and what about the top 4 who get byes in the ACC tournament.

ND has no losses and FSU & UNC each have a loss and Duke plays ND, UNC twice and FSU at home so Duke can still catch ND and FSU since.... FSU still has two games against ND and a game against Louisville as well as road games at Clemson, Miami and Pittsburgh. ND still has the two FSU games and also plays UVA, UNC and Louisville.

If Duke is aiming for an ACC tournament bye then they don't have to win "all" of these games just a few of them and the other teams will beat each other up.

My guess is the ACC champion will have 5 losses (13-5) and the 4th place team 7 losses (11-7).

Here is Duke's schedule and my path to the needed 13 wins.

Miami (Home) W
NC State (Home) W
Wake Forest (Away) W
Notre Dame (Away) L (ugh)
Pittsburgh (Home) W
North Carolina (Home) W
Clemson (Home) W
Virginia (Away) L (ugh)
Wake Forest (Home) W
Syracuse (Away) W
Miami (Away) W
Florida State (Home) W
North Carolina (Away) W

If we do this and get to the conference finals on Saturday, we are probably a #1 seed.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Yup.

A tournament berth is not a birthright. This is a tough conference in bad years, a crazy tough conference in years like this. All road games are tough, and it is imperative to hold home court each time out.

By the same token, I'm not sure there are many -- or even any -- who have given up the way Al F. states. Maybe I just skip those posts though.

The sky is the limit for this team. Still. But right now, we are tied for tenth place in the conference. So far, i would say that we won the two home games we should have won; lost two road games that are not unreasonable (although looked pretty bad at Louisville); and lost a road game that would have been nice to win in Blacksburg. End of the world? Certainly not. Indicia of a juggernaut? Certainly not either.

We get a week off to prepare to host Miami, then games hosting State; @ Wake, @ ND. both the home games and the road games are Sat/Mon turnarounds. Need to hold home service this week, then we have two road games of the sort that we will need to win if we are going to get a good seed. But all of those games are going to be tough, and we will get all of their best shots.

I couldn't agree more. I think a lot of posters who are very positive see DBR as a "sky is falling" platform. I don't see many posters saying "this season is over". I see a lot of posters saying, "it's been a disappointing season thus far with all the expectations, injuries, and distractions". And I don't think those posters are wrong.

Anywho, my two cents on the current seeding is as follows: the 1-seed has sailed. If Duke wins out, which is highly, highly unlikely, then a 1-seed is doable. But with Nova and Gonzaga all but guaranteed a 1-seed (top dogs in mediocre conferences) and UK, KU, Baylor, UCLA, and Creighton not far behind, a 1-seed is really, really tough. To get a 1-seed, I'd argue it's more about what happens to the other teams than what Duke does.

I see Duke going anywhere from a 2-seed to a 6-seed. Regardless, I think Duke will be better than their seed class, because they have so much potential for improvement and their ceiling is higher than any other team.

[OldPhiKap]

I couldn't agree more. I think a lot of posters who are very positive see DBR as a "sky is falling" platform. I don't see many posters saying "this season is over". I see a lot of posters saying, "it's been a disappointing season thus far with all the expectations, injuries, and distractions". And I don't think those posters are wrong.

Anywho, my two cents on the current seeding is as follows: the 1-seed has sailed. If Duke wins out, which is highly, highly unlikely, then a 1-seed is doable. But with Nova and Gonzaga all but guaranteed a 1-seed (top dogs in mediocre conferences) and UK, KU, Baylor, UCLA, and Creighton not far behind, a 1-seed is really, really tough. To get a 1-seed, I'd argue it's more about what happens to the other teams than what Duke does.

I see Duke going anywhere from a 2-seed to a 6-seed. Regardless, I think Duke will be better than their seed class, because they have so much potential for improvement and their ceiling is higher than any other team.

Agreed. I think a 2-4 seed is a reasonable target given all that has happened to date. And even if we fall to a 4, there is no one-seed that wants us in their bracket.

But as I have also said before, we have a lot of work to do to maintain that range as a reasonable goal. We need to win our home games, and steal some on the road. Our hosting of UNC 2/9 and FSU 2/28 both loom pretty large. But no game is a gimme this year. I would be really happy with a 12-6 conference record and not surprised with 11-7 or even 10-8 if Amile is out much longer. 12-6 gets us a 4 seed at worst I would think; anything else is probably lower absent a nice run in the ACC tourney.

[duketaylor]

2015 -- a couple of really ugly losses and the loss of Rasheed; switch to zone at Louisville; regroup and really click at the end. National Championship.

1991 -- get absolutely annihilated by Carolina in the ACC Final -- twenty point loss -- go out and win the NCAA, including epic wins over UNLV and Roy's Kansas team.

I imagine there are some who do not remember when the ACC was like this every night. This is a brutal conference this year, reminiscent of the mid-80's. Every road game is a challenge. Every home win is precious. Not all losses are by less than five points; sometimes you get smacked silly.

Enjoy the ride. If we get healthy and hit at the right time, we're fine. If not, well -- we're not anyway.

Carpe Diem. Go to Hellius Caroliniass. Let's go Duke!

Completely agree OPK!!!

[duketaylor]

The remainder of the year is completely unknown. What is known, so far, is Harry's getting somewhat up to speed, K should be back before long, we think Amile will be back at some point and all the frosh will mature as we go. Bolden should get healthier as well. I don't really care at this point what seed we'd be, because no team would want to face us, even if only partially healthy. I just want to get there, let the chips fall where they will.

If I were to guess today, I'd think Duke will be a top-4 seed; wouldn't be shocked if a 1 or 2. Why? Because of recent history. ACC will have plenty of carnage going forward, IMO. If any team will dominate it will be, in no particular order, FSU, Louisville, UVA, unc, or Duke. I see no dominance at this time. A healthy Duke is a very scary (good) Duke.

Second week in January is too early to fret too much.

[freshmanjs]

Agreed. I think a 2-4 seed is a reasonable target given all that has happened to date. And even if we fall to a 4, there is no one-seed that wants us in their bracket.

But as I have also said before, we have a lot of work to do to maintain that range as a reasonable goal. We need to win our home games, and steal some on the road. Our hosting of UNC 2/9 and FSU 2/28 both loom pretty large. But no game is a gimme this year. I would be really happy with a 12-6 conference record and not surprised with 11-7 or even 10-8 if Amile is out much longer. 12-6 gets us a 4 seed at worst I would think; anything else is probably lower absent a nice run in the ACC tourney.

Not sure about the last part. Last year, in a weaker ACC, 11-7 was good enough for a #4.

[gofurman]

The discussion has been about making the tournament but we do have to examine the unbalanced schedule and see how Duke ended up at 2-3.

The three losses are all on the road and two of them to top 15 teams. The other game against VT is a bit of an anomaly, VT is playing great and Duke was in a bit of disarray at the time.

So, what record would the winner of the ACC have and what about the top 4 who get byes in the ACC tournament.

ND has no losses and FSU & UNC each have a loss and Duke plays ND, UNC twice and FSU at home so Duke can still catch ND and FSU since.... FSU still has two games against ND and a game against Louisville as well as road games at Clemson, Miami and Pittsburgh. ND still has the two FSU games and also plays UVA, UNC and Louisville.

If Duke is aiming for an ACC tournament bye then they don't have to win "all" of these games just a few of them and the other teams will beat each other up.

My guess is the ACC champion will have 5 losses (13-5) and the 4th place team 7 losses (11-7).

Here is Duke's schedule and my path to the needed 13 wins.

Miami (Home) W
NC State (Home) W
Wake Forest (Away) W
Notre Dame (Away) L (ugh)
Pittsburgh (Home) W
North Carolina (Home) W
Clemson (Home) W
Virginia (Away) L (ugh)
Wake Forest (Home) W
Syracuse (Away) W
Miami (Away) W
Florida State (Home) W
North Carolina (Away) W

Man. I would be a little shocked to see us pull that off - Win at Carolina? Only two more losses? We already have three losses in five acc attempts!!!!

In addition to your two losses... In particular I am afraid of Wake away (we haven't won a road game yet and Clemson and unc were lucky to win Winston Salem). UNC home. And unc away.

[CDu]

Man. I would be a little shocked to see us pull that off - Win at Carolina? Only two more losses? We already have three losses in five acc attempts!!!!

In addition to your two losses... In particular I am afraid of Wake away (we haven't won a road game yet and Clemson and unc were lucky to win Winston Salem). UNC home. And unc away.

I think it largely depends on how quickly Jefferson gets back. But I don't think 13-5 is anywhere near out of the question. I think we match up quite well with UNC if we have Jefferson. And if we have Jefferson, I don't worry about Wake.

If Jefferson is out several more weeks then 13-5 seems unreasonable. If Jefferson is back in the next week or so I would put 13-5 very much on the table.

[NSDukeFan]

I couldn't agree more. I think a lot of posters who are very positive see DBR as a "sky is falling" platform. I don't see many posters saying "this season is over". I see a lot of posters saying, "it's been a disappointing season thus far with all the expectations, injuries, and distractions". And I don't think those posters are wrong.

Anywho, my two cents on the current seeding is as follows: the 1-seed has sailed. If Duke wins out, which is highly, highly unlikely, then a 1-seed is doable. But with Nova and Gonzaga all but guaranteed a 1-seed (top dogs in mediocre conferences) and UK, KU, Baylor, UCLA, and Creighton not far behind, a 1-seed is really, really tough. To get a 1-seed, I'd argue it's more about what happens to the other teams than what Duke does.

I see Duke going anywhere from a 2-seed to a 6-seed. Regardless, I think Duke will be better than their seed class, because they have so much potential for improvement and their ceiling is higher than any other team.
I believe a #1 seed is still very much in play. I am confident Duke can afford another couple losses and still be in that conversation. If Duke plays like the top 20 team they have recently, the team will end up with more losses than that and end up a lower seed. If Duke can take care of business the next couple of home games, get a coach and captain back, see more progress from the freshmen, this team will start playing closer to its potential and could string together some impressive wins. That's some big ifs, but I am expecting all of them to occur. If so, and the team stays healthy...

[Spanarkel]

I think it largely depends on how quickly Jefferson gets back. But I don't think 13-5 is anywhere near out of the question. I think we match up quite well with UNC if we have Jefferson. And if we have Jefferson, I don't worry about Wake.

If Jefferson is out several more weeks then 13-5 seems unreasonable. If Jefferson is back in the next week or so I would put 13-5 very much on the table.

I trust you, but please explain why you think we match up well with UNC(I know we have a better head coach). UNC averages 46rpg and has an insane offensive rebounding percentage of 46%. So far this season Duke has struggled with "paintball." Thanks!

[Troublemaker]

I trust you, but please explain why you think we match up well with UNC(I know we have a better head coach). UNC averages 46rpg and has an insane offensive rebounding percentage of 46%. So far this season Duke has struggled with "paintball." Thanks!

For decades now, UNC has pounded the offensive glass. There's nothing special about this team in that regard. For example, this year they're #1 in the country in offensive rebounding, but last year they were #3, and the year before that they were #5.

And Duke's defense has for many years now sacrificed points in the paint for better 3-pt line coverage. This team is currently sacrificing too much but the expectation is that once Amile is back and once the freshmen get more games under their belts, the tradeoff will work for Duke as it has in the past.

In the past 15 Duke-UNC games, Duke has won 11 of them, despite UNC being a great offensive rebounding team for most of those seasons.

[Troublemaker]

That said, I would agree that CDu might be prematurely optimistic about Duke matching up well. I don't feel like I know this Duke team when fully healthy all that well yet. We've only played one game (Georgia Tech).

[UrinalCake]

Anywho, my two cents on the current seeding is as follows: the 1-seed has sailed. If Duke wins out, which is highly, highly unlikely, then a 1-seed is doable. But with Nova and Gonzaga all but guaranteed a 1-seed (top dogs in mediocre conferences) and UK, KU, Baylor, UCLA, and Creighton not far behind, a 1-seed is really, really tough. To get a 1-seed, I'd argue it's more about what happens to the other teams than what Duke does.

If we were to win out, there is no doubt in my mind that we would be a #1. That would mean we'd have a 15-3 record in conference and would have won the ACC Tournament as well as the regular season title in all likeliness. To put things in perspective, when the conference season began KenPom projected that the winner of the regular season in the ACC would have 5 or 6 losses. That speaks to how absurdly strong the conference is, with something like 10 or 11 teams in the top 50 of the computer rankings. And I don't believe any ACC team has ever won both the regular season and the ACCT and not been a #1. Plus the selection committee would take into account our earlier injuries and coach k being out. Based on that, we would have a case for the overall #1.

But getting back to reality, I think a reasonable best-case scenario would be losing at ND and at UVA and splitting with the CHeats. That would put us at 12-6.

[OldPhiKap]

But getting back to reality, I think a reasonable best-case scenario would be losing at ND and at UVA and splitting with the CHeats. That would put us at 12-6.

I would take 12-6 in a heartbeat right now. I still think that may be on the optimistic side though.

A lot obviously depends on when Amile returns, or if we find a suitable work-around this long week between games. We need to win these two upcoming home games.

[Spanarkel]

For decades now, UNC has pounded the offensive glass. There's nothing special about this team in that regard. For example, this year they're #1 in the country in offensive rebounding, but last year they were #3, and the year before that they were #5.

And Duke's defense has for many years now sacrificed points in the paint for better 3-pt line coverage. This team is currently sacrificing too much but the expectation is that once Amile is back and once the freshmen get more games under their belts, the tradeoff will work for Duke as it has in the past.

In the past 15 Duke-UNC games, Duke has won 11 of them, despite UNC being a great offensive rebounding team for most of those seasons.

Appreciate the reasoned response. I'm good with 11 wins out of the last 15 games against UNC.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I believe a #1 seed is still very much in play. I am confident Duke can afford another couple losses and still be in that conversation. If Duke plays like the top 20 team they have recently, the team will end up with more losses than that and end up a lower seed. If Duke can take care of business the next couple of home games, get a coach and captain back, see more progress from the freshmen, this team will start playing closer to its potential and could string together some impressive wins. That's some big ifs, but I am expecting all of them to occur. If so, and the team stays healthy...

Again, I don't think the 1-seed is up to Duke; it's up to the teams waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay ahead of them in the pecking order. Everything you said is correct for Duke to get a 1-seed, but they need help, including plenty of losses from at least 3 of Nova (unlikely), Gonzaga (unlikely), UK (unlikely), Kansas (likely), Baylor (likely), and UCLA (unlikely).

[Kedsy]

Again, I don't think the 1-seed is up to Duke; it's up to the teams waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay ahead of them in the pecking order. Everything you said is correct for Duke to get a 1-seed, but they need help, including plenty of losses from at least 3 of Nova (unlikely), Gonzaga (unlikely), UK (unlikely), Kansas (likely), Baylor (likely), and UCLA (unlikely).

I distinctly remember having this seeding conversation around this same time (mid-Jan) in 2010, when several people made the exact same argument you're making now (obviously with different teams). Texas and Villanova were absolute locks for #1, along with Kentucky and Kansas, so supposedly the best we could get was a #2. UK and KU did get #1s, but Nova was Duke's #2 and Texas ended up a #8-seed (!). Nobody's a lock for a #1 seed at this stage in the season.

Teams in lesser conferences like Villanova (this year, not in 2010) and Gonzaga don't need "plenty" of losses to drop off the 1-line. They just need a few. And UCLA has to play Arizona twice, USC twice, and Oregon, so my guess is the Bruins have some losses in their future. Kentucky has two games with Florida, two with Georgia, and a date with Kansas, so UK isn't running the table, either. There's a lot of basketball left to be played.

Finally, I'll be absolutely shocked if at least one ACC team doesn't get a #1 seed. If Duke's considered the top team in the ACC, then it'll be us.

[OldPhiKap]

Again, I don't think the 1-seed is up to Duke; it's up to the teams waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay ahead of them in the pecking order. Everything you said is correct for Duke to get a 1-seed, but they need help, including plenty of losses from at least 3 of Nova (unlikely), Gonzaga (unlikely), UK (unlikely), Kansas (likely), Baylor (likely), and UCLA (unlikely).



Finally, I'll be absolutely shocked if at least one ACC team doesn't get a #1 seed. If Duke's considered the top team in the ACC, then it'll be us.

I agree conceptually with everything fdd says, but at the end of the day I don't see how "the best team in the ACC" (whoever that turns out to be) is kept off the 1 line. Especially if it is the 1 or 2 seed that wins the ACCT.

[BandAlum83]

Finally, I'll be absolutely shocked if at least one ACC team doesn't get a #1 seed. If Duke's considered the top team in the ACC, then it'll be us.

Completely agree with this. This ACC is viewed as the strongest conference, by far. I'd be shocked if the team viewed as the top in the league did not get a #1 seed

[vick]

I distinctly remember having this seeding conversation around this same time (mid-Jan) in 2010, when several people made the exact same argument you're making now (obviously with different teams). Texas and Villanova were absolute locks for #1, along with Kentucky and Kansas, so supposedly the best we could get was a #2. UK and KU did get #1s, but Nova was Duke's #2 and Texas ended up a #8-seed (!). Nobody's a lock for a #1 seed at this stage in the season.

Teams in lesser conferences like Villanova (this year, not in 2010) and Gonzaga don't need "plenty" of losses to drop off the 1-line. They just need a few. And UCLA has to play Arizona twice, USC twice, and Oregon, so my guess is the Bruins have some losses in their future. Kentucky has two games with Florida, two with Georgia, and a date with Kansas, so UK isn't running the table, either. There's a lot of basketball left to be played.

Finally, I'll be absolutely shocked if at least one ACC team doesn't get a #1 seed. If Duke's considered the top team in the ACC, then it'll be us.

Agreed. I'm not sure this conversation matters very much, given that we aren't playing close to a level where going undefeated is likely, but if we were to win out, not only would I bet on a 1-seed, I think it's more likely we'd be the number one overall than a 2-seed.

I feel like this conversation plays out every year, where people look at teams at the top and ignore that a lot of games where you have a 70-90% chance of winning means you're likely to lose multiple games if you have more than a dozen left. A four-loss champion of a top-2 conference on a 16-game winning streak isn't going to be a 1-seed? Very, very low chance.

[TexHawk]

I agree conceptually with everything fdd says, but at the end of the day I don't see how "the best team in the ACC" (whoever that turns out to be) is kept off the 1 line. Especially if it is the 1 or 2 seed that wins the ACCT.

Obviously getting ahead of ourselves, but it would certainly be a fun discussion. I agree that maybe only one loss is all that is needed to knock Nova/Gonzaga down a peg, I just don't see where those will come from. Nova has only 4 games left against ranked opponents, and 3 of those are at home. The road game is at Xavier, which is in a free-fall. Gonzaga (probably) only has a road game at St Mary's standing in the way of an undefeated season. Which means we could be looking at the Big East conference tournament as Nova's roadblock (where they lost last year, knocking them off the #1 line), but that would only be their 2nd loss.

Assuming nothing crazy happens, that leaves the Big12 champ/ACC champ/Kentucky/UCLA battling it out for the last two. If Duke were to run the table, you would also need to hope that one of UK/UCLA stumbles, plus the Big12 cannibalizes itself a bit. Those are all varying in probability.

I think the Duke name, a blazing hot streak, and the strength of the ACC would put you over WVU or Baylor. But I am not so sure about KU/UK/UCLA, all who sport very strong nonconference wins. What if it's down to KU, who also has a early season head-to-head win over you?

In a vacuum (most other years), a 15-3 Duke team, with 4 total losses and regular season + tournament conference wins would be an automatic #1 seed. My guess is you would be sweating it a bit this year.

[OldPhiKap]

Obviously getting ahead of ourselves, but it would certainly be a fun discussion. I agree that maybe only one loss is all that is needed to knock Nova/Gonzaga down a peg, I just don't see where those will come from. Nova has only 4 games left against ranked opponents, and 3 of those are at home. The road game is at Xavier, which is in a free-fall. Gonzaga (probably) only has a road game at St Mary's standing in the way of an undefeated season. Which means we could be looking at the Big East conference tournament as Nova's roadblock (where they lost last year, knocking them off the #1 line), but that would only be their 2nd loss.

Assuming nothing crazy happens, that leaves the Big12 champ/ACC champ/Kentucky/UCLA battling it out for the last two. If Duke were to run the table, you would also need to hope that one of UK/UCLA stumbles, plus the Big12 cannibalizes itself a bit. Those are all varying in probability.

I think the Duke name, a blazing hot streak, and the strength of the ACC would put you over WVU or Baylor. But I am not so sure about KU/UK/UCLA, all who sport very strong nonconference wins. What if it's down to KU, who also has a early season head-to-head win over you?

In a vacuum (most other years), a 15-3 Duke team, with 4 total losses and regular season + tournament conference wins would be an automatic #1 seed. My guess is you would be sweating it a bit this year.

I think that's a pretty spot-on analysis.

And so I don't get too far over my skis here, I'll reiterate my basic assumption -- a 2-to-4 seed for Duke would be a reasonable goal given all that has happened to date. We certainly can get all the way back up to a 1 seed but I'm not terribly worried about it either way. What 1, 2, or 3 seed wants to see Duke in their bracket?

If we are hitting at the right time, we can beat anyone. If we are not, we're not likely to get to the FF regardless of what seed we have. I'm hoping for health first, and then steady progress as a team from there.

[Tripping William]

Obviously getting ahead of ourselves, but it would certainly be a fun discussion. I agree that maybe only one loss is all that is needed to knock Nova/Gonzaga down a peg, I just don't see where those will come from. Nova has only 4 games left against ranked opponents, and 3 of those are at home. The road game is at Xavier, which is in a free-fall. Gonzaga (probably) only has a road game at St Mary's standing in the way of an undefeated season. Which means we could be looking at the Big East conference tournament as Nova's roadblock (where they lost last year, knocking them off the #1 line), but that would only be their 2nd loss.

Assuming nothing crazy happens, that leaves the Big12 champ/ACC champ/Kentucky/UCLA battling it out for the last two. If Duke were to run the table, you would also need to hope that one of UK/UCLA stumbles, plus the Big12 cannibalizes itself a bit. Those are all varying in probability.

I think the Duke name, a blazing hot streak, and the strength of the ACC would put you over WVU or Baylor. But I am not so sure about KU/UK/UCLA, all who sport very strong nonconference wins. What if it's down to KU, who also has a early season head-to-head win over you?

In a vacuum (most other years), a 15-3 Duke team, with 4 total losses and regular season + tournament conference wins would be an automatic #1 seed. My guess is you would be sweating it a bit this year.

I'll repeat a line I posted earlier, in the Undefeated thread: Don't sleep on the Zags' February 2nd late-night trip to Provo.

[Wander]

I agree that maybe only one loss is all that is needed to knock Nova/Gonzaga down a peg, I just don't see where those will come from. Nova has only 4 games left against ranked opponents, and 3 of those are at home. The road game is at Xavier, which is in a free-fall. Gonzaga (probably) only has a road game at St Mary's standing in the way of an undefeated season. Which means we could be looking at the Big East conference tournament as Nova's roadblock (where they lost last year, knocking them off the #1 line), but that would only be their 2nd loss.

Assuming nothing crazy happens, that leaves the Big12 champ/ACC champ/Kentucky/UCLA battling it out for the last two. If Duke were to run the table, you would also need to hope that one of UK/UCLA stumbles, plus the Big12 cannibalizes itself a bit. Those are all varying in probability.

I think the Duke name, a blazing hot streak, and the strength of the ACC would put you over WVU or Baylor. But I am not so sure about KU/UK/UCLA, all who sport very strong nonconference wins. What if it's down to KU, who also has a early season head-to-head win over you?

In a vacuum (most other years), a 15-3 Duke team, with 4 total losses and regular season + tournament conference wins would be an automatic #1 seed. My guess is you would be sweating it a bit this year.

You are VASTLY overestimating the chance of teams finishing without further losses. I absolutely guarantee Duke would get a 1 seed if we win out. I also guarantee that Villanova will not be knocked off the 1 seed line with just 1 more regular season loss.

[wallyman]

Not to be a downer but surprised no one has brought this back up. Maybe now it feels too real. Go Duke.

[OldPhiKap]

Failing to hold home court makes a few road steals imperative. At Wake is huge.

[jipops]

I'm really hoping 8 can get us in. Though I think at least one of those 8 will have to come from either uva or the cheats.

[jipops]

Failing to hold home court makes a few road steals imperative. At Wake is huge.

Surely Wake will be favored. #13 kenpom offense and our defense is garbage. We have a shot of course but it wouldn't be surprising if they blew us out.

[uh_no]

Surely Wake will be favored. #13 kenpom offense and our defense is garbage. We have a shot of course but it wouldn't be surprising if they blew us out.

currently looking at effectively even odds (49-51). could change one way or another based on their game with cuse....but not much.

[jipops]

currently looking at effectively even odds (49-51). could change one way or another based on their game with cuse...but not much.

I think we're looking at 3-6 going into the Pitt game. Even then it wouldn't be over. So if we manage to steal one and go in 4-5, then things look somewhat more positive. Of course we also have to pray for no more injuries. One more and that's it.

[gofurman]

UNFORTUNATELY, A thread I started where I was accused of 'negativity' has suddenly found relevance with many. People had bias who didn't see the holes in our Defense.

Look, we could get to the final four. We can. I want Duke to win it all .. Am a HUGE FAN. But we need a lot of improvement. And it's a bad year for us to be playing in probably the best ACC in 15 years.

[Bob Green]

...where I was accused of 'negativity' ...

You deemed it necessary to defend your discussion topic in the thread title. The very first person to use the word "negative" was you. Oh, and how about the term "Chicken Little"? Again, the very first person to use that term was you in post #1.

Uh, where there is smoke there is fire.

[gofurman]

You deemed it necessary to defend your discussion topic in the thread title. The very first person to use the word "negative" was you. Oh, and how about the term "Chicken Little"? Again, the very first person to use that term was you in post #1.

Uh, where there is smoke there is fire.

Bob, you mean the smoke around our Defense?. Or the 'on fire' ratings of the opposing offenses? Jk.

Bob, Unfortunately, because sports fans are rather biased by nature you almost have to preface/apologize for things that are near-to-objective. Which is a shame. You would expect grown men to be bigger than that. I am merely objective. I hope we win the title. I do. But We need K and Amile bad - and some more inspired play. Not a whole lot of effort out there sometimes. Especially on D where Duke has prided itself for years

Look at Wallyman's post above (post number 64). He felt he had to preface his post despite stating REALITY - at least as it stands currently. Clearly people feel tentative to post objective reality and a need to preface such.

Fwiw, I started this thread more on a speculative note ... I am very Goal-Oriented. I was Just curious how many wins achieved what. And at how many wins were we to feel solid for the tourney? Not that we wouldn't get in. But would 9-9 get in. What do most people think etc. and what do you know ? There was STILL a response or two - Despite my preface- that I was being negative. I was really just asking (think financial goals etc) at what number of acc wins were we safe for the tourney? Then we could move to higher goals from there... Just like in your personal financial life - how much is a safe number for retirement? Then you can examine what number would be a 'stretch goal' etc... Only The entitled think it's a birthright to make the tourney every year. Here's to you 2010 UNC

At the time I wasnt saying we would go 8-10 or anything

[NSDukeFan]

Duke is 15-5, including 3-4 in conference. I predicted in the conference record thread that Duke would go 11-7, or 8-3 the rest of the way, but was thinking 12-6 is also certainly possible, i.e. 9-2 the rest of the way. Obviously, Duke gets in the NCAA tournament in those cases and gets a top 4 seed depending on how the ACCT goes. I think this year 8 ACC wins to give Duke a 20-11 record gets them dancing, even without an ACCT win (20-12). Could they get in with 7 ACC wins and an ACCT win? I expect so. I think all ACC teams will get in if they get 9 wins, excluding BC, Cuse and GTech, who all stumbled too much in the pre-conference schedule. Even Wake or Clemson would be at 19 wins, which might get them in, or would get them in the conversation. Clemson and Pitt have likely dug themselves too big a hole.

[gofurman]

currently looking at effectively even odds (49-51). could change one way or another based on their game with cuse...but not much.

Interesting. And Good. Today was our second best RPI win after Florida - those are our two top 25 RPI wins



http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/teamId/150