MBB: Duke at VT (12/31, 12 pm, ESPN2) Pre Game and In Game Thread

[gofurman]

Moving on

VTech - on road. Sell out. But not as many students... That helps w lowering the crowd noise. Old peeps aren't as loud .. Lol

Zach LeDay is the main scorer as a forward. Redshirt senior 6'7. 235 lbs. averages 17 P and 7 Rebounds in about 30 minutes. Ahmed Hill is a 6'5 junior guard who is a good shooter getting 15 points a game

What are the keys? Anyone seen them play?? Help w knowledge about VPI

[gofurman]

Lost to Tex AM... Beat Nebraska and Michigan and Ole Miss. Have only one loss. Look to be a pretty good team

[uh_no]

Moving on

VTech - on road. Sell out. But not as many students... That helps w lowering the crowd noise. Old peeps aren't as loud .. Lol

Zach LeDay is the main scorer as a forward. Redshirt senior 6'7. 235 lbs. averages 17 P and 7 Rebounds in about 30 minutes. Ahmed Hill is a 6'5 junior guard who is a good shooter getting 15 points a game

What are the keys? Anyone seen them play?? Help w knowledge about VPI

Haven't watched a second of them....here's what i can put together on stats.
they have a small lineup with zach, and a big lineup with freshman khadim sy. He is averaging 13 mins 4 boards, and 6 points. Given how weak VT's schedule has been, I wouldn't put a whole ton of stock in the 6'10 freshman (knock on wood....). Look for amile to guard zach when he's in, and perhaps we get giles some minutes when the big fella comes in.

Justin robinson plays the vast majority of minutes at PG and seems to be off to a decent season, with a 2:1 A:TO. Though he is averaging 11 a game, his overall FG% is only 38%, which isn't horrible, but it's not awesome. Seth allen is the other guard and has been a far better shooter on the year...shooting 41% from 3 and 55% overall.

Three guys split most of the minutes in between and all are in the 6'5-6'6 range

Ahmed Hill- lights out shooter right now....45% from 3.
Justin Bibbs-also shooting 40% from 3
Chris Clarke-one of the top rebounders in the country, and the third best scorer on the team



Interestingly, their most common lineup at 20% leaves Zach on the bench, and seth...meaning they are running justin at point, then those three "wings" and the freshman big fella. However, the rest of the time are Zach lineups.

Of those lineups:

Ahmed is the man out most of the time. The next two lineups are about even, with as you guessed, justin or chris on the bench. So a vast plurality of the game (about 15 minutes of the game), we'll be facing zach, the two guards, and two of the three "wings".

How would we match up? I would be shocked if amile didn't play every minute on zach that he is in the game. I expect matt to cover ahmed when he's in the game, and tatum to guard chris when he's in to help mitigate his rebounding advantage.

Up top, frank and luke will have to deal with justin and seth. not allowing penetration from justin will be of utmost importance....i hope SOMEONE is up to the task.

When the khadim is in, I would expect us to get chase and giles minutes, and we would also go big, playing luke-matt-jayson-amile-giles/chase.

So two guards who usually play
Two of three wings that are in at any time
Zach

OR

one guard
3 wings
khadim

also getting a few minutes is Ty Outlaw....who ONLY shoots threes....seriously...he has 29 3PA, and a whopping 6 2PA...of which he's only made 1, while shooting nearly 50% from long range. He's utterly useless at everything else and almost exclusively replaces rebound-man chris. So presumably he comes in for when they need offense. When he DOES get in the game, we need to make sure identify this quickly and not give him any space on the line. Seems like the kind of guy who could spark a run with a few big buckets.

Anyway, as I said, this is 100% based on stats.

[gofurman]

Haven't watched a second of them...here's what i can put together on stats.
they have a small lineup with zach, and a big lineup with freshman khadim sy. He is averaging 13 mins 4 boards, and 6 points. Given how weak VT's schedule has been, I wouldn't put a whole ton of stock in the 6'10 freshman (knock on wood...). Look for amile to guard zach when he's in, and perhaps we get giles some minutes when the big fella comes in.

Justin robinson plays the vast majority of minutes at PG and seems to be off to a decent season, with a 2:1 A:TO. Though he is averaging 11 a game, his overall FG% is only 38%, which isn't horrible, but it's not awesome. Seth allen is the other guard and has been a far better shooter on the year...shooting 41% from 3 and 55% overall.

Three guys split most of the minutes in between and all are in the 6'5-6'6 range

Ahmed Hill- lights out shooter right now...45% from 3.
Justin Bibbs-also shooting 40% from 3
Chris Clarke-one of the top rebounders in the country, and the third best scorer on the team



Interestingly, their most common lineup at 20% leaves Zach on the bench, and seth...meaning they are running justin at point, then those three "wings" and the freshman big fella. However, the rest of the time are Zach lineups.

Of those lineups:

Ahmed is the man out most of the time. The next two lineups are about even, with as you guessed, justin or chris on the bench. So a vast plurality of the game (about 15 minutes of the game), we'll be facing zach, the two guards, and two of the three "wings".

How would we match up? I would be shocked if amile didn't play every minute on zach that he is in the game. I expect matt to cover ahmed when he's in the game, and tatum to guard chris when he's in to help mitigate his rebounding advantage.

Up top, frank and luke will have to deal with justin and seth. not allowing penetration from justin will be of utmost importance...i hope SOMEONE is up to the task.

When the khadim is in, I would expect us to get chase and giles minutes, and we would also go big, playing luke-matt-jayson-amile-giles/chase.

So two guards who usually play
Two of three wings that are in at any time
Zach

OR

one guard
3 wings
khadim

also getting a few minutes is Ty Outlaw...who ONLY shoots threes...seriously...he has 29 3PA, and a whopping 6 2PA...of which he's only made 1, while shooting nearly 50% from long range. He's utterly useless at everything else and almost exclusively replaces rebound-man chris. So presumably he comes in for when they need offense. When he DOES get in the game, we need to make sure identify this quickly and not give him any space on the line. Seems like the kind of guy who could spark a run with a few big buckets.

Anyway, as I said, this is 100% based on stats.

Agree w all but the 'weak' schedule part. It's no killer schedule but Vt beat Nebraska who Clemson scraped by. And I think Clemson is decent (just ask Duke from last year). The wins over Michigan and Ole Miss are ok too. But the Nebraska seems a good win. On the road at VT? It will be tough

EDIT. Just looked. KenPom agrees w you. Their schedule is ranked 300+. However VT is also ranked as 35th best team in KenPom. Esp without Grayson I will be happy to get out w any win

[uh_no]

Agree w all but the 'weak' schedule part. It's no killer schedule but Vt beat Nebraska who Clemson scraped by. And I think Clemson is decent (just ask Duke from last year). The wins over Michigan and Ole Miss are ok too. But the Nebraska seems a good win. On the road at VT? It will be tough

EDIT. Just looked. KenPom agrees w you. Their schedule is ranked 300+. However VT is also ranked as 35th best team in KenPom. Esp without Grayson I will be happy to get out w any win

Yeah, Agree, they have some quality wins. probably should have looked at who did what in their games against real opponents. certainly a good test for us.

[FadedTackyShirt]

VPI is solid (64 RPI, 35 KenPom), but @Michigan (10-3, 76 RPI, 29 KP) and Ole Miss (9-3, 44 RPI, 84 KP) are better wins than Nebraska (6-6, 102 RPI, 97 KP).

Hokies (83.5 PPG-28th nationally) score exactly the same as Duke (83.5 PPG-27th), but aren't as efficient offensively (VPI: 1.130 points per possession, 27th nationally, Duke: 1.148, 16th). Hokies will try to push tempo, but Devils would prefer to force them to execute their half court offense.

Only common opponent is Maine (3-9, 328 RPI, 274 KP). Duke crushed them 94-55 (without Grayson and Giles) and VPI beat them 80-67.

Would like to see Bolden get some extended run, but fitness and style of play may preclude that. Chase and Giles likely get more mins than Bolden.

Broadcasts from VPI are always significantly darker than virtually every other college arena. Solid engineering school, one would hope they could upgrade the lighting inside that cave.

[Troublemaker]

VaTech uses a strange rotation in which they don't start their best player, Zach LeDay, and one of their better players, Seth Allen. Both LeDay and Allen play starters' minutes, though, so just keep in mind that the team you see on the floor at tipoff isn't the team Duke's going to battle against most of the game.

The Hokies' two leading scorers are LeDay (6'7" 235) and Ahmed Hill (6'5" 205), who will spend most of the game being guarded by Duke's two best defenders, Amile and Matt, respectively. Hopefully Amile and Matt can make their counterparts inefficient enough so Duke can steal an ACC road win in this period of adjustment for us in which we're integrating the injured freshmen (and our preseason NPOY candidate is sitting out).

I would gladly take a 1-point win here. If we happen to do better than that, great. But I'll be thrilled with any performance that ends in a W.

[DukieInBrasil]

If Grayson sits i would imagine that Tatum and Jackson start alongside Jefferson, Jones and Kennard. I think Jeter has shown that he is a capable reserve, but not a quality starter. Bolden nor Giles are ready to start. It's still a pretty tall lineup, and even though Jefferson doesn't really play above the rim, he plays taller than his height. Only Jackson and Tatum would be considered above-average athletically, none of that starting 5 are "un"athletic. Jones gets a bad rap (and i have not been a big fan in the past), but he is plenty athletic enough to be a + defender. If that group can meld together defensively then it doesn't really matter if they're not "stoppers" or can shut people down 1-on-1. That group has plenty of offensive versatility and if they can keep the ball moving, they'll be able to get plenty of open shots.

[gofurman]

From our side a short summary would be we go from four offensive threats to three. Luke. Grayson. Jason. Amile. Was four. Strike Grayson for now meaning three. Good chance for Jackson to get game experience. Grayson was getting better at drive and kick or pass. Need Jackson to do that to keep us wopen shots

[Kedsy]

From our side a short summary would be we go from four offensive threats to three. Luke. Grayson. Jason. Amile. Was four. Strike Grayson for now meaning three. Good chance for Jackson to get game experience. Grayson was getting better at drive and kick or pass. Need Jackson to do that to keep us wopen shots

We'll see. It's possible we'll show six offensive threats (including Frank, Harry, and Marques), or seven if Matt starts hitting his shots. I'm not particularly worried about our offense, with or without Grayson.

[uh_no]

We'll see. It's possible we'll show six offensive threats (including Frank, Harry, and Marques), or seven if Matt starts hitting his shots. I'm not particularly worried about our offense, with or without Grayson.

the offense has been trending down the past few games. I won't say I'm worried now that grayson is off the court, but i'm certainly not confident either.

We go through too many stretches of limited scoring to be comfortable right now, which makes sense given that matt has been in poor form on the offensive and grayson has been streaky at best. Can we make it with three guys scoring? maybe...but someone else needs to step up for me to not be confident.

[gofurman]

We'll see. It's possible we'll show six offensive threats (including Frank, Harry, and Marques), or seven if Matt starts hitting his shots. I'm not particularly worried about our offense, with or without Grayson.

Kedsy, I hope you are right... But we have one total point from Harry so far (FT) this year... and no real points from Bolden in a meaningful game. In bigger games Bolden seems limited to fouls and five minutes of play. I hope one of those two does something soon but we haven't seen it yet. Frank has shown flashes for sure - big threes and ability to drive and get in the lane with athleticism

But, to date, the four primary scorers are, without a doubt, Amile ... Grayson... Luke ... Jason. I HOPE we see something from Harry or Marques soon. I think one of them has to,come around for Duke to be a super strong contender

[Kedsy]

Kedsy, I hope you are right... But we have one total point from Harry so far (FT) this year... and no real points from Bolden in a meaningful game. In bigger games Bolden seems limited to fouls and five minutes of play. I hope one of those two does something soon but we haven't seen it yet. Frank has shown flashes for sure - big threes and ability to drive and get in the lane with athleticism

But, to date, the four primary scorers are, without a doubt, Amile ... Grayson... Luke ... Jason. I HOPE we see something from Harry or Marques soon. I think one of them has to,come around for Duke to be a super strong contender

From November 18, 2014 through February 28, 2015, a stretch of 23 games, Grayson Allen had one game of 10 points (in a blowout), one game of 6 points (also in a blowout), and no other game with more than 5. Then on March 4, 2015, he scored 27 points. There's a big difference between being an offensive threat and being a "primary scorer." To be a scorer, you have to get the opportunity, which is hard if you're on a team for which Grayson Allen, Jayson Tatum, Luke Kennard, and (to a lesser extent) Amile Jefferson all play a ton of minutes (and get a ton of shots). There are just so many shots to go around. Without Grayson, someone else is going to get the opportunities. Whichever it is (of Frank, Harry, and Marques), my guess is they'll step up and take advantage of those opportunities. They may not all get the opportunities, but they're all offensive threats. Matt's an offensive threat, too, when he's hitting his shots, but probably not as big a threat as the other three.

So far this season, Frank Jackson has scored 12+ ppg (18.3 points per 40 minutes/25.7 points per 100 possessions, both numbers pretty much exactly the same as Amile Jefferson's scoring), while taking 6.5 fewer shots per 100 possessions than Jayson Tatum and about three shots fewer per 100 possessions than Grayson Allen. His three-point shooting percentage is around 39%, and his offensive rating is better than both Grayson's and Jayson's. To me, that qualifies as an offensive threat without even factoring in Grayson's absence. Marques Bolden has hardly played but he's scored 14.4 points per 40 minutes/20.3 points per 100 possessions, and will probably do better than that if his minutes go up. Harry has played 10 minutes all year after not playing at all for 15 months. Once he's healthy enough to play more than spot minutes, I can almost guarantee that he'll be a threat.

I can understand being nervous about our offense in the short term (though I personally am not nervous about it), because all three of Frank, Harry, and Marques are coming off injuries and we don't know whether they'll truly be ready by Saturday's game. But as soon as any or all of these guys are ready, I can't imagine that we won't have enough offensive threats on the court.

[BD80]

We'll see. It's possible we'll show six offensive threats (including Frank, Harry, and Marques), or seven if Matt starts hitting his shots. ...

Good one.

Why not say "with Matt playing the stretch 4, if he grows 5 inches by game time?"

[whereinthehellami]

Dangerous VT team for Duke. This is Buzz's team. They have all bought into the team and have two of their best players coming off the bench.

A decent 3-point shooting team that will spread Duke out to find the best match-up for the drive or 3-pointer.

This will be a tough one for Duke to win. I'm hoping the guys rally around Grayson and play with some fire. If they play like they did right after the Grayson incident (flat, uninspired) VT has a really good chance.

[UrinalCake]

I was worried about this game months ago, BEFORE knowing we wouldn't have Grayson. Lost in the hoopla of his suspension is the fact that we now have only three guards on our roster. Previously there were ongoing questions of how much we would choose to play Tatum at the 3, but now it's not really an option, we will be forced to play him there for a huge portion of the game. I don't even know if Frank is all the way healthy, and if he or Luke or Matt get into any foul trouble it would be disasterous.

Aside from that, we our playing our first ACC game and our first true road game (I think Elon was technically a road game but it certainly didn't have the same feel as what we'll be going against in a true opposing home arena). These are games in which k leans on his veterans who have been through it before, and we have one fewer. We're also coming off another 10-day break and will be rusty. We didn't play particularly well in either of our last two games and I don't have reason to believe that will just magically go away. So yeah, I'm seeing this game as a real challenge and wouldn't be shocked by a loss.

[Channing]

would love to see Amile get involved early with the offense. He has sort of become an after thought (offensively speaking) the last two games after completely dominating earlier in the season.

[Bob Green]

Previously there were ongoing questions of how much we would choose to play Tatum at the 3, but now it's not really an option, we will be forced to play him there for a huge portion of the game.

I'll believe Tatum plays the 3 for "a huge portion" of the game when I see it. Until Giles or Bolden demonstrate the ability to contribute, Tatum is going to be the primary option at the 4. Based upon what I saw the past couple of games, both guys need more time.

[OldPhiKap]

I'll believe Tatum plays the 3 for "a huge portion" of the game when I see it. Until Giles or Bolden demonstrate the ability to contribute, Tatum is going to be the primary option at the 4. Based upon what I saw the past couple of games, both guys need more time.

Per Neals' +/= thread, Tatum led the team in minutes against Elon. Guess he is getting back into full game shape.

I cannot think of another Duke team that needed a break and time to practice like this one. Deep breath. Deep breath. Deep breath . . . .

[Troublemaker]

I'll believe Tatum plays the 3 for "a huge portion" of the game when I see it. Until Giles or Bolden demonstrate the ability to contribute, Tatum is going to be the primary option at the 4. Based upon what I saw the past couple of games, both guys need more time.

imo, Duke will primarily play small in this game despite having only 4 perimeter players. In the 40 minute game (if no OT), I would expect Duke to play small for 30 of those minutes.

[Saratoga2]

I'll believe Tatum plays the 3 for "a huge portion" of the game when I see it. Until Giles or Bolden demonstrate the ability to contribute, Tatum is going to be the primary option at the 4. Based upon what I saw the past couple of games, both guys need more time.

I think the point made was that we are now down to 3 guards and one of those is coming off an injury. Tatum's ability to bring the ball up and play the 3 gives us flexibility in case we have foul trouble or if Frank can't be fully ready. In that case, we may need to play a big. Pick one (Jeter, Giles, Bolden) in any order.

[Bob Green]

I think the point made was that we are now down to 3 guards and one of those is coming off an injury. Tatum's ability to bring the ball up and play the 3 gives us flexibility in case we have foul trouble or if Frank can't be fully ready. In that case, we may need to play a big. Pick one (Jeter, Giles, Bolden) in any order.

I understand the point but I do not agree with the point. My counterpoint is Tatum will play more minutes at the 4 than the 3 against VT.

[FadedTackyShirt]

I was worried about this game months ago, BEFORE knowing we wouldn't have Grayson. Lost in the hoopla of his suspension is the fact that we now have only three guards on our roster. Previously there were ongoing questions of how much we would choose to play Tatum at the 3, but now it's not really an option, we will be forced to play him there for a huge portion of the game. I don't even know if Frank is all the way healthy, and if he or Luke or Matt get into any foul trouble it would be disasterous.

Grayson and Frank missed the Maine game, so both Kennard and Matt still played 34 mins in a blow out.

K's preferred line up will probably be Amile, Tatum, Kennard, Frank, and Matt, but not clear how long that lineup can stay on the floor together. VPI will go at Kennard to draw fouls and keep Duke's most reliable scorer off the floor.

Frank, Chase, Giles, and Bolden will have to play extended mins. Tatum's thrived as a 4, but will have to log major mins at the 3. Tough baptism for four dinged up frosh in their first (road) ACC game.

[ChillinDuke]

I understand the point but I do not agree with the point. My counterpoint is Tatum will play more minutes at the 4 than the 3 against VT.

I guess it comes down to this question: Do you think the primary lineup will include Frank or Chase? I think playing Chase in a primary lineup with Frank first off the bench makes the most sense, generally. But for this game in particular, VT doesn't have a very tall squad with a cluster of minute-eaters listed in the 6'5" to 6'7" range. So objectively, I think I'm leaning towards Bob's side. It makes a whole lot of sense to play Amile/Jayson/Matt on the cluster of mid-sized players. When/if the 6'10" Freshman Khadim Sy comes in, Chase probably makes sense there.

I'd love Tatum to slide down to the 3 with Grayson sidelined. But I'm not sure it makes sense in this matchup, on its face. Will see if K sees things differently.

- Chillin

[devilnfla]

From Without Grayson, someone else is going to get the opportunities. Whichever it is (of Frank, Harry, and Marques), my guess is they'll step up and take advantage of those opportunities. They may not all get the opportunities, but they're all offensive threats. Matt's an offensive threat, too, when he's hitting his shots, but probably not as big a threat as the other three.


My guess is Tatum and Luke absorb Grayson's shots and that Giles and Bolden won't be given the opportunities.

[Kedsy]

Good one.

Why not say "with Matt playing the stretch 4, if he grows 5 inches by game time?"

Matt hit 38% of his threes as a sophomore and 42% of his threes as a junior. Odds are more in favor of him regaining his touch from outside than not.


I don't even know if Frank is all the way healthy...

This, I think, is key. If he is, and the freshmen bigs still aren't ready, Frank could grab most of Grayson's minutes and scoring opportunities, and Coach K could opt to play just six guys again (in this case, Luke, Frank, Matt, Jayson, Amile, Chase?), as he has for much of the season so far. If he isn't, someone (presumably Jayson) is going to have to play our third perimeter position for much of the game. Either way, I wouldn't be surprised if either Marques or Harry (or both) step up and join the rotation.


Aside from that, we our playing our first ACC game and our first true road game (I think Elon was technically a road game but it certainly didn't have the same feel as what we'll be going against in a true opposing home arena).

I understand it wasn't at Thomas and Mack, but wasn't UNLV technically a road game?


VPI will go at Kennard to draw fouls and keep Duke's most reliable scorer off the floor.

How do you "go at" a perimeter player to draw fouls? Luke has committed fewer than two fouls a game so far this season. I'm not saying he can't get into foul trouble in any particular game, but I would be surprised if that was Va Tech's primary strategy.


My guess is Tatum and Luke absorb Grayson's shots and that Giles and Bolden won't be given the opportunities.

Maybe. But Jayson and Luke already take 26 shots per game between them, and Grayson takes 12 more shots per game. That's a lot of shots for just two guys.

It might not be Harry or Marques, but someone (maybe Frank) other than "the big two" is going to get some of Grayson's shots.

[subzero02]

My guess is Frank Jackson has a nice game for us. He has led us in scoring 3 times this year and has a pretty nice stroke from outside. I also feel that he's our most athletic player.

[uh_no]

I guess it comes down to this question: Do you think the primary lineup will include Frank or Chase? I think playing Chase in a primary lineup with Frank first off the bench makes the most sense, generally. But for this game in particular, VT doesn't have a very tall squad with a cluster of minute-eaters listed in the 6'5" to 6'7" range. So objectively, I think I'm leaning towards Bob's side. It makes a whole lot of sense to play Amile/Jayson/Matt on the cluster of mid-sized players. When/if the 6'10" Freshman Khadim Sy comes in, Chase probably makes sense there.

I'd love Tatum to slide down to the 3 with Grayson sidelined. But I'm not sure it makes sense in this matchup, on its face. Will see if K sees things differently.

- Chillin

agree with your analysis. for most of the time, there'll simply be nobody on the floor chase will be able to guard...and those minute eaters are either really good shots or really good rebounders....i think chase would struggle with all of them.

With such a strange composition, i wonder if it will be hard to get giles in as well....but maybe that's what he needs...a game where he can get in and abuse some smaller guys to get some confidence. It will be interesting to see if we can exploit that down low.

[Olympic Fan]

I understand it wasn't at Thomas and Mack, but wasn't UNLV technically a road game?


No ... it was "technically" a neutral court game.

VPI will be Duke't first official road game.

Note: The NCAA rule is that a team must play three regular season games on a court for it to count as a home game. Kansas has "home" games in Allen Field House in Lawrence and in Kansas City. Pretty sure St. John's has home games in the Carnesseca Center on campus and in Madison Square Garden.

But Thomas and Mack is UNLV's only home court.

[killerleft]

agree with your analysis. for most of the time, there'll simply be nobody on the floor chase will be able to guard...and those minute eaters are either really good shots or really good rebounders...i think chase would struggle with all of them.

With such a strange composition, i wonder if it will be hard to get giles in as well...but maybe that's what he needs...a game where he can get in and abuse some smaller guys to get some confidence. It will be interesting to see if we can exploit that down low.

My take on Harry Giles is a bit less optimistic. He's still relearning how to play competitive basketball again, and he's going to be awhile before he 'trusts' his body to do all the things that made him such a fantastic recruit.

He was more active against Elon, though, and I would love to be proven wrong. If he gets more than 15 minutes I would be surprised.

[gofurman]

My take on Harry Giles is a bit less optimistic. He's still relearning how to play competitive basketball again, and he's going to be awhile before he 'trusts' his body to do all the things that made him such a fantastic recruit.

He was more active against Elon, though, and I would love to be proven wrong. If he gets more than 15 minutes I would be surprised.

Yep. I just tend to err on the side of 'hope for the best, expect the worst '. Not optimist not pessimist. Realist. The glass isn't half full. It's not half empty. It's always full - it's just half air and half water. Right now I'll believe Giles or Bolden contributes something meaningful when I see it. Which is killing me. I get Giles. Hurt so much and out so long... But Bolden is listed on first round draft boards?? Color me surprised. I haven't seen first round play out of Bolden in a meaningful game yet. I guess I am just frustrated. Giles as the next Chris Webber? Heck. I'd take 15 to 20 minutes a game of 'Greg Oden' EASILY at this point. That would change this Duke team a ton. A rim protector. Giles was more hyped than Anthony Davis or Karl Anthony Towns. I'd KILL for just 20 minutes of either of those guys. KILL. Maybe it's coming but I don't know

At some point, no matter the matchup, you have to play Giles and bolden if you want them to contribute later in the year. Besides, if they are Dominant players-make the other team adjust to you. Don't adjust to the other team. You didn't see Okafor come out because the other team had five small ball guys. He just owned the paint

Sorry. Getting frustrated

[Saratoga2]

Yep. I just tend to err on the side of 'hope for the best, expect the worst '. Not optimist not pessimist. Realist. The glass isn't half full. It's not half empty. It's always full - it's just half air

At some point, no matter the matchup, you have to play Giles and Bolden if you want them to contribute later in the year. Besides, if they are Dominant players-make the other team adjust to you. Don't adjust to the other team. You didn't see Okafor come out because the other team had five small ball guys. He just owned the paint



If not VT, where will we bet these guys into the game in a meaningful way. It's a good point and making the other team adjust to you is also a good point. That said, coach K will give minutes based on performance in practice and matchups that he feels give us the best chance of winning. I look forward to the game and seeing this team perform after a solid week + of practice.

[chadlee989]

No ... it was "technically" a neutral court game.

VPI will be Duke't first official road game.

Note: The NCAA rule is that a team must play three regular season games on a court for it to count as a home game. Kansas has "home" games in Allen Field House in Lawrence and in Kansas City. Pretty sure St. John's has home games in the Carnesseca Center on campus and in Madison Square Garden.

But Thomas and Mack is UNLV's only home court.

Did you guys watch the game? It looked more like a Duke Home game to me. 75% Duke?

[duke4ever19]

Did you guys watch the game? It looked more like a Duke Home game to me. 75% Duke?


It's more a question of what the game qualified as in the record keeping books, neutral court, or home court. Turnout of a particular fanbase isn't a factor in this case.

To entertain your point, though, I certainly think it's possible to turn a true road game into a sort of "home court" by putting more of your fanbase in the seats than the home team. I've never had the chance to be apart of that, although I've been to a few 76ers home games the last couple years that were darn close.

[LasVegas]

It's more a question of what the game qualified as in the record keeping books, neutral court, or home court. Turnout of a particular fanbase isn't a factor in this case.

To entertain your point, though, I certainly think it's possible to turn a true road game into a sort of "home court" by putting more of your fanbase in the seats than the home team. I've never had the chance to be apart of that, although I've been to a few 76ers home games the last couple years that were darn close.

The Mack and T-Mobile arena are 3 miles from each other. The fan base was at LEAST 75% Duke in the stadium. Probably is technically a neutral court game but 3 miles from home floor might be a record for a neutral game!

[DukieTiger]

It's more a question of what the game qualified as in the record keeping books, neutral court, or home court. Turnout of a particular fanbase isn't a factor in this case.

To entertain your point, though, I certainly think it's possible to turn a true road game into a sort of "home court" by putting more of your fanbase in the seats than the home team. I've never had the chance to be apart of that, although I've been to a few 76ers home games the last couple years that were darn close.

If the context is concern about how a young team will respond in a hostile atmosphere, I'd argue that fan base turnout is a more salient topic than the official denomination of a game in the record books. As such, I share the OP's question of how the team will respond to its first road game.

And then I will carry that question over to Jan 10 when this team plays what I will consider its first "real" road game, since VT is on break, it's bowl season, and it's less likely to be the truly hostile environment that other ACC locations will be once school (or "school" for your Heels, Wheat) is back in session.

[Spanarkel]

I look forward to the game and seeing this team perform after a solid week + of practice.


Hope you're right. I just hope we as fans don't have to rue the absence of a post-Christmas "shake the rust off" game against a mid-major this year.

[gofurman]

Key note is that VT plays an actual game today... UMBC? 9-3 team.. Not sure this was mentioned. This 3 days prior to playing us. While this means they have to scout for today and can't focus on Duke scouting yet.. we can focus on VT scouting and I hope we are ! Especially since the next two games for us don't really scare me. There is some advantage for VT in that they are shaking off rust today with a real game. They get one more game to work through kinks in live action. I hope we are having productive practices.

I assume our guys are back now and practicing? Is that right?

[Kedsy]

But Bolden is listed on first round draft boards?? Color me surprised. I haven't seen first round play out of Bolden in a meaningful game yet.

Frankly, Marques didn't look like a first round draft pick in the one exhibition he played, either (or in Blue/White, for that matter). I think his draft status is based almost entirely on his size and potential.


Giles as the next Chris Webber? Heck. I'd take 15 to 20 minutes a game of 'Greg Oden' EASILY at this point.

Who wouldn't? Greg Oden was a first-team All American and Big Ten defensive player of the year his one year of college. He was the #1 pick in the NBA Draft.

Give Harry time, let him run his own race. I'm confident he'll give us quality minutes once he's ready. We just need patience.

[Bob Green]

There is some advantage for VT in that they are shaking off rust today with a real game. They get one more game to work through kinks in live action.

With our guys trying to finish healing up and getting back into game shape, the time off is more important than a shake off the rust game.

[CDu]

I understand the point but I do not agree with the point. My counterpoint is Tatum will play more minutes at the 4 than the 3 against VT.

Well, we have just three guards now. If those three all play 35 minutes, then that would still leave 15 minutes needed to be filled at the 3. So for Tatum to play more minutes at the 4 than the 3, one of the following will likely have to happen:

1. Our 3 guards play basically the entire game;
2. Tatum plays basically the entire game (such that his ~15 minutes at the 3 are less tha
3. Jack White will have to play his first meaningful minutes against a real major conference foe.

Now, any of those are possible, and #1 would seem the most likely reason if Tatum does stay more at the 4 than the 3. But I would say that if Tatum doesn't play more minutes at the 3 than 4 in the near-term (with Allen out and Jackson recovering), then we aren't likely to see significent minutes for Bolden and/or Giles at any point this year. If Coach K won't play Tatum at the 3 despite a major shortage of perimeter bodies, then he isn't going to do it once we are back to full strength. And playing Tatum at the 3 (or not at all) is the only way we will see significent minutes for our freshmen bigs. They aren't replacing Jefferson.

[ChillinDuke]

<snip>

Give Harry time, let him run his own race. I'm confident he'll give us quality minutes once he's ready. We just need patience.

That's right, patience is what we need. Problem is there's an expiration date on his lone season of college ball. So I get both the patience requirement and frustration component.

Also, wanted to point out that the guy drew comparisons to Chris Webber when healthy. Recovering from ACL reconstruction can take guys time to regain form. Look at Jabari for example. Not everyone is a complete freak like Adrian Peterson.

Unfortunately, it is a very real possibility we won't see a Chris Webber-esque Giles this season. Not giving up hope, but explicitly stating the possible.

- Chillin

[Bob Green]

Now, any of those are possible, and #1 would seem the most likely reason if Tatum does stay more at the 4 than the 3. But I would say that if Tatum doesn't play more minutes at the 3 than 4 in the near-term (with Allen out and Jackson recovering), then we aren't likely to see significant minutes for Bolden and/or Giles at any point this year.

Your points are all valid and I agree with you that we might not see significant minutes from Bolden or Giles at any point this year because I did not see anything during the Tennessee State or Elon games, which indicate either Bolden or Giles are ready to see significant minutes:

TSU - Bolden 6 minutes, Giles 4 minutes
Elon - Giles 6 minutes, Bolden 3 minutes

Combined stats: 1 pt and 2 rebounds in 19 minutes. Ten days will pass between the Elon game and Saturday's match-up with Virginia Tech so perhaps one or both of our freshmen big men will improve dramatically but right now I am confident with my position that Jayson Tatum will play more at the 4 than the 3 against the Hokies.

[COYS]

Well, we have just three guards now. If those three all play 35 minutes, then that would still leave 15 minutes needed to be filled at the 3. So for Tatum to play more minutes at the 4 than the 3, one of the following will likely have to happen:

1. Our 3 guards play basically the entire game;
2. Tatum plays basically the entire game (such that his ~15 minutes at the 3 are less tha
3. Jack White will have to play his first meaningful minutes against a real major conference foe.

Now, any of those are possible, and #1 would seem the most likely reason if Tatum does stay more at the 4 than the 3. But I would say that if Tatum doesn't play more minutes at the 3 than 4 in the near-term (with Allen out and Jackson recovering), then we aren't likely to see significent minutes for Bolden and/or Giles at any point this year. If Coach K won't play Tatum at the 3 despite a major shortage of perimeter bodies, then he isn't going to do it once we are back to full strength. And playing Tatum at the 3 (or not at all) is the only way we will see significent minutes for our freshmen bigs. They aren't replacing Jefferson.

I think this is an astute post, but I don't think Jayson's playing time at the three or four in this game is as predictive of the future as you do. I think scenario number 1 is clearly the most likely in the short term, assuming that Frank is healthy enough to do play 35+ minutes and we stay out of foul trouble. And I don't think that's a bad thing. Of the available players at this curent moment, Matt, Luke, Amile, Frank, and Jayson are clearly our best. I HOPE they're available to play big minutes.

That being said, in a perfectly normal year without injuries it is not unusual for K to shake up the rotation a bit much later in the season. And this is anything but a normal year with the rash of injuries and Grayson's suspension. If Harry ever regains even 75% of the form that made him the top prospect in a deep recruiting class, we could see a shift to a bigger lineup even when Grayson comes back. I'm not saying you're wrong, necessarily. So far, Jayson has looked really good in the PF spot. He is a very good rebounder who is also quick enough to guard smaller players and rotate on defense (though he needs some more reps to get more consistent with his defensive rotations). If we ignore the names of players and just look at stats, the Amile/Jayson combo looks to be the obvious choice as the go-to PF/C pairing. Harry would really have to play well to break up those two guys, move one of Matt/Grayson/Luke to the bench, AND reduce Frank's role. But, we've seen so many strange twists and turns already, I would not be at all surprised to see Harry or possibly even Marques play well enough to force their way into big minutes.

[uh_no]

Frankly, Marques didn't look like a first round draft pick in the one exhibition he played, either (or in Blue/White, for that matter). I think his draft status is based almost entirely on his size and potential.


Which is somewhat understandable....there have been bigs that came to college, had little success, got drafted high, and still had decent careers. Andre Drummond comes to mind.

[uh_no]

Your points are all valid and I agree with you that we might not see significant minutes from Bolden or Giles at any point this year because I did not see anything during the Tennessee State or Elon games, which indicate either Bolden or Giles are ready to see significant minutes:

TSU - Bolden 6 minutes, Giles 4 minutes
Elon - Giles 6 minutes, Bolden 3 minutes

Combined stats: 1 pt and 2 rebounds in 19 minutes. Ten days will pass between the Elon game and Saturday's match-up with Virginia Tech so perhaps one or both of our freshmen big men will improve dramatically but right now I am confident with my position that Jayson Tatum will play more at the 4 than the 3 against the Hokies.

It's a fair assessment, but given how small VT is, I can see giving them minutes in order to create some serious matchup problems on offense. either amile or giles would be left being guarded by a 6'6 guy

That said, I agree with your ultimate assessment that we'll see jayson at the 4. Unless they're in foul trouble or hurt, there's no reason those guards won't play 35+ each. VT plays big about 10 minutes a game. I'd expect those are the minutes we see chase and giles or bolden...so that leaves about 5 minutes of tatum at the 3.

[Troublemaker]

That said, I agree with your ultimate assessment that we'll see jayson at the 4. Unless they're in foul trouble or hurt, there's no reason those guards won't play 35+ each. VT plays big about 10 minutes a game. I'd expect those are the minutes we see chase and giles or bolden...so that leaves about 5 minutes of tatum at the 3.

Foul trouble may play a huge role in determining whether Jayson plays mostly at the 3 or 4 against VaTech. The Hokies relentlessly drive the ball and rack up fouls; last season, they were actually #1 in the country (kenpom) at getting to the free throw line. This season, they're currently ranked #83 but I expect that to go up. I take back my previous prediction that we're going to mostly play small in this game; it's more "I don't know," and that prediction is basically dead in the water if one of our perimeter players picks up two quick fouls.

[FadedTackyShirt]

Bolden got a quick hook vs Elon because, unfairly or not, he's a liability on defense right now. Dawkins pulled him outside and calmly drained two quick 3s. Bolden wasn't close to guarding Dawkins either time. Giles got the message even though Dawkins scored on a contested 3, but at least Giles hustled out to the line.

When Sy's in the game, a healthy and experienced Chase likely guards him. Offensive mismatches aside, Bolden and Giles can't guard any Hokies other than Sy. Barring foul trouble or additional injuries, Devils still have enough offensive fire power, so defense will be a premium vs VPI.

[OldPhiKap]

Bolden and Harry have only had a few practices, and Harry has not played competitive contact basketball in over a year. I would expect that we will see a much more representative game from them soon after the break, perhaps even against VT. Tatum went from hardly playing, to leading us in minutes against Elon in a matter of a few practices.

The biggest challenge they both face, besides just getting back up to speed, is that Amile is playing like a first team All-ACC player right now (or darn close, to avoid derailing the thread on the argument). They have to compete for time with a sixth year captain playing his best basketball. If and when they can beat him out, they will have earned it.

[BD80]

Yep. I just tend to err on the side of 'hope for the best, expect the worst '. Not optimist not pessimist. Realist. The glass isn't half full. It's not half empty. It's always full - it's just half air and half water.

Start with Scotch. By time its half air, you won't care. Pragmatist.

[MChambers]

It's a fair assessment, but given how small VT is, I can see giving them minutes in order to create some serious matchup problems on offense. either amile or giles would be left being guarded by a 6'6 guy

That said, I agree with your ultimate assessment that we'll see jayson at the 4. Unless they're in foul trouble or hurt, there's no reason those guards won't play 35+ each. VT plays big about 10 minutes a game. I'd expect those are the minutes we see chase and giles or bolden...so that leaves about 5 minutes of tatum at the 3.

But we'd end up with Giles or Bolden on a wing, which K really doesn't like to do.

[CDu]

But we'd end up with Giles or Bolden on a wing, which K really doesn't like to do.

Mathematically speaking, though, a big on a smaller player is going to happen. Well, unless Duke plays its three guards and Tatum for 40 minutes each. But there are going to be plenty of minutes with one of our bigs on a smaller forward. When that happens, I think Coach K will put Jefferson on the smaller player. And as such we probably won't see many (if any) minutes with two of Jeter/Bolden/Giles on the floor.

[gofurman]

Mathematically speaking, though, a big on a smaller player is going to happen. Well, unless Duke plays its three guards and Tatum for 40 minutes each. But there are going to be plenty of minutes with one of our bigs on a smaller forward. When that happens, I think Coach K will put Jefferson on the smaller player. And as such we probably won't see many (if any) minutes with two of Jeter/Bolden/Giles on the floor.

Well did anyone watch VT play tonight? Scouting? I saw about five minutes but it was basically garbage time. But they do look dangerous. Meaning a bunch of medium sized guys who can put the ball on the floor and drive by you. And a fair number of non-freshman. It's a crew that will win some games

[jipops]

The way things appear to sit right now I would be more surprised by a Duke win than a Duke loss in this one. The offense has been kind of a mess the last couple games and who knows what kind of collective state the team is in coming out of the break and after recent events.

We have 3 excellent offensive talents in Luke, Amile, and Jayson. Frank is a bit of a wildcard due to whatever physical issue he is playing with. If we lose this but see some growth or response from either of Giles or Bolden then that will certainly be encouraging. But that still remains to be seen and I remain skeptical we'll see it at all this season.

I'm most hoping to see more dialed in D in this one. There has been a gradual progression in this area. I'm hoping all the time off in December hasn't spoiled that.

[madscavenger]

Zone

[OldPhiKap]

Stonehenge.

[Troublemaker]

The way things appear to sit right now I would be more surprised by a Duke win than a Duke loss in this one.

Yeah, there's a huge range of outcomes "I wouldn't be surprised by" for this game, including both a comfortable win for VaTech and a comfortable win for Duke. For Duke, we did handle a team cut from the same cloth in Rhode Island. Now, VPI is much better than URI and will be playing at home, but it's possible we match up well with small, quick teams this season (although that's something that's better determined in April looking back upon the season when sample size is larger). The Hokies' two leading scorers will also be guarded by Duke's two best defenders, as I mentioned before, and maybe that will provide us an advantage.

A couple other things, unrelated. I wouldn't count out VaTech having a strong student presence in the stands for this game. Most of their students are in-state and within a 4-5 hour drive. Let's say you're a kid from the DC suburbs. Would you attend a noon game in Blacksburg for the chance of upsetting Duke / storming the floor before driving back home to be with family by 6-7pm for New Year's eve plans? Perhaps.

Also, Buzz will sometimes switch up defenses during a game, from man to 2-3 zone to 3-2 zone, and maybe something else. So our guys will have to be prepared to recognize and execute against changing defenses.

[dukelifer]

The way things appear to sit right now I would be more surprised by a Duke win than a Duke loss in this one. The offense has been kind of a mess the last couple games and who knows what kind of collective state the team is in coming out of the break and after recent events.

We have 3 excellent offensive talents in Luke, Amile, and Jayson. Frank is a bit of a wildcard due to whatever physical issue he is playing with. If we lose this but see some growth or response from either of Giles or Bolden then that will certainly be encouraging. But that still remains to be seen and I remain skeptical we'll see it at all this season.

I'm most hoping to see more dialed in D in this one. There has been a gradual progression in this area. I'm hoping all the time off in December hasn't spoiled that.
Duke has little margin for error now. Matt Jones is going to be needed on the offensive end of the court. I expect a very close game. Duke will need to minimize mistakes and hit free throws to win.

[Edouble]

Duke has little margin for error now. Matt Jones is going to be needed on the offensive end of the court. I expect a very close game. Duke will need to minimize mistakes and hit free throws to win.

I disagree that we have little margin for error. We lost one guy- a guy that really hasn't been playing consistently great basketball. We still have our stars-Luke, Amile, and Jayson, with lots of room for growth from our two freshman bigs. Even Tatum still has room for growth.

I think that this team still has the ability to rip off 10-12 points in about 45 seconds. The ability to make that classic Duke run ("spurt" -Dickie V) gives us a fair margin for error, IMO.

We can definitely win this game without Matt showing up on offense, with the players that we have.

[BD80]

Duke has little margin for error now. Matt Jones is going to be needed on the offensive end of the court. ...

Uh oh.


... We can definitely win this game without Matt showing up on offense, with the players that we have.

Whew.

[FadedTackyShirt]

Zone

A possibility if Amile and/or Tatum get in foul trouble. As noted earlier, K doesn't want to play two of Chase, Giles, and Bolden at the same time.

[fuse]

Duke's ability to win may have more to do with the long break than other issues.
Our post exam games were not real promising when it came to focus and execution.

We may not need a hot start- surviving a slow start could be a big challenge.

Excited to see how the team responds. Looking forward to a good game.

[Reilly]

Delta … opponent (opp rank per SRS) … expected delta based on today’s SRS for Duke and opponent … difference between delta and expected delta

+49 UNLV (155) … +25 … Duke +24 over expectation
+45 Marist (301) … +36 … Duke +09 over expectation
+39 Maine (309) … +37 … Duke +02 over expectation
+35 App State (245) … +32 … Duke +03 over expectation
+35 Grand Canyon (143) ... +25 ... Duke +10 over expectation
+21 W&M (194) … +28 … Duke -07 under expectation
+11 Elon (151) … +25 … Duke -14 under expectation
+10 Tenn State (129) … +23 … Duke -13 under expectation
+10 Penn State (81) … +18 … Duke -08 under expectation
+10 Rhode Island (49) … +13 … Duke -03 under expectation
__ Virginia Tech (43) … +11 …. Duke __ over/under expectation
+10 Florida (18) … +05 … Duke +05 over expectation
+09 Michigan State (51) … +14 … Duke -05 under expectation
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-02 Kansas (8) … +0.5 … Duke -1.5 under expectation

Duke has 11 wins of 10+ points, 1 win of +09 points, and 1 loss, to the #8 SRS team, by 2 points.

If Duke plays as far under expectation as it did against Elon and Tenn State, then Duke will lose; if Duke meets/exceeds expectations, or only underperforms a bit (and Duke has met, exceeded, or only underperformed a bit in 11 of 13 games this year), then Duke wins.

[Nrrrrvous]

We really need Jefferson and Tatum to go right at LeDay and Sy. As short as we are perimeter players, Tech is shorter on big guys. If we can get Sy and/or LeDay with a couple of early fouls our life would get a whole lot easier. And Sy, being a freshman has been known to pick up some quick ones.

[English]

...For Duke, we did handle a team cut from the same cloth in Rhode Island. Now, VPI is much better than URI and will be playing at home, but it's possible we match up well with small, quick teams this season (although that's something that's better determined in April looking back upon the season when sample size is larger). The Hokies' two leading scorers will also be guarded by Duke's two best defenders, as I mentioned before, and maybe that will provide us an advantage.

VPI will be playing at home, and conference games tend to be much more unpredictable than OOC games, but the numbers don't reflect the bolded (caveat: KenPom early season, etc.). KP lists VPI as No. 36 and URI as No. 45. According to KP, VPI is 39 AdjO and 54 AdjD vs. URI 48 AdjO and 57 AdjD. Advantage: VPI.

However, VPI's strength of schedule is abysmal. Its SOS is 341st vs. URI's 95th. It's tough to get much of a pulse on a team that's playing patsies all non-conference.

I guess all that said, I fully agree that the range of outcomes from which I wouldn't be surprised is pretty massive. Although for me, that's more a function of Duke's bizarre season to-date (and counting) than my concern that VPI is better than advertised.

[DukieInBrasil]

We really need Jefferson and Tatum to go right at LeDay and Sy. As short as we are perimeter players, Tech is shorter on big guys. If we can get Sy and/or LeDay with a couple of early fouls our life would get a whole lot easier. And Sy, being a freshman has been known to pick up some quick ones.

While i would like to see Duke go to Jefferson more vs VPI than they have lately, Amile has shown a propensity to pick up charging fouls, travels and other turnovers when too focused on going right at the defense. It's not like he does it all the time, but if he goes out there withe idea to take it at them it might backfire a little bit. He's much better when he's able to operate and use his craftiness. It might just be a semantic difference, but i'd rather see Amile be aggressive using his high-skill moves rather than power moves.
As mentioned previously, i'd love to see Tatum go at the rim more and much less of the mid-range shots. He sucks up all the offensive oxygen when he shoots those low-percentage mid-range fade aways. Luke is by far our best mid-range shooter and our best 3-pt shooter, so i'd rather see him operating mid-range than Tatum. Luke hitting a cutting Tatum would be sweet. If Tatum is in the elbow area and drives, i'd like to see him be aware of Amile for a pass if he can't get an easy look for a score. Amile is the heart and soul of this team, and Tatum can be a great weapon, but our offense has become very pedestrian ever since Tatum has been getting so many touches on offense at the expense of Amile.

[MChambers]

As mentioned previously, i'd love to see Tatum go at the rim more and much less of the mid-range shots. He sucks up all the offensive oxygen when he shoots those low-percentage mid-range fade aways. Luke is by far our best mid-range shooter and our best 3-pt shooter, so i'd rather see him operating mid-range than Tatum. Luke hitting a cutting Tatum would be sweet. If Tatum is in the elbow area and drives, i'd like to see him be aware of Amile for a pass if he can't get an easy look for a score. Amile is the heart and soul of this team, and Tatum can be a great weapon, but our offense has become very pedestrian ever since Tatum has been getting so many touches on offense at the expense of Amile.

Boy, do I agree with this. Tatum needs to put the ball on the floor, move without the ball, and pass more. Don't get me wrong: he's a tremendous talent and already a very good player, but he could be devastating if he did more of these things.

[Indoor66]

I wonder what Virginia Tech plans to do to stop Duke?

[jimsumner]

I wonder what Virginia Tech plans to do to stop Duke?

Bring back Deron Washington?

[Indoor66]

Bring back Deron Washington?

That would be exciting....

[ChillinDuke]

That would be exciting...

Exciting is one word.

- Chillin

[devildeac]

I wonder what Virginia Tech plans to do to stop Duke?


Bring back Deron Washington?


That would be exciting...

Yea, imagine how indignant and self-righteous Greenburg would become re-living that incident :rolleyes:.

[dukelifer]

I disagree that we have little margin for error. We lost one guy- a guy that really hasn't been playing consistently great basketball. We still have our stars-Luke, Amile, and Jayson, with lots of room for growth from our two freshman bigs. Even Tatum still has room for growth.

I think that this team still has the ability to rip off 10-12 points in about 45 seconds. The ability to make that classic Duke run ("spurt" -Dickie V) gives us a fair margin for error, IMO.

We can definitely win this game without Matt showing up on offense, with the players that we have.

This is the long view. On Sat the team is coming off a long layoff and playing a real road game with a key player on the bench. The young guys may respond but we have no idea. I expect a very close game because it is the start of ACC play and everyone will be hyped.

[OldPhiKap]

Bring back Deron Washington?

Wash your keyboard off with soap.

[gofurman]

Delta … opponent (opp rank per SRS) … expected delta based on today’s SRS for Duke and opponent … difference between delta and expected delta

+49 UNLV (155) … +25 … Duke +24 over expectation
+45 Marist (301) … +36 … Duke +09 over expectation
+39 Maine (309) … +37 … Duke +02 over expectation
+35 App State (245) … +32 … Duke +03 over expectation
+35 Grand Canyon (143) ... +25 ... Duke +10 over expectation
+21 W&M (194) … +28 … Duke -07 under expectation
+11 Elon (151) … +25 … Duke -14 under expectation
+10 Tenn State (129) … +23 … Duke -13 under expectation
+10 Penn State (81) … +18 … Duke -08 under expectation
+10 Rhode Island (49) … +13 … Duke -03 under expectation
__ Virginia Tech (43) … +11 …. Duke __ over/under expectation
+10 Florida (18) … +05 … Duke +05 over expectation
+09 Michigan State (51) … +14 … Duke -05 under expectation
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-02 Kansas (8) … +0.5 … Duke -1.5 under expectation

Duke has 11 wins of 10+ points, 1 win of +09 points, and 1 loss, to the #8 SRS team, by 2 points.

If Duke plays as far under expectation as it did against Elon and Tenn State, then Duke will lose; if Duke meets/exceeds expectations, or only underperforms a bit (and Duke has met, exceeded, or only underperformed a bit in 11 of 13 games this year), then Duke wins.

the poor thing is those two you mention are the last two games... Cmon guys - play w a chip on your shoulder. Cmon Giles and Bolden - don't press. Just play hard and do your thing

[kAzE]

Finally back from vacation, and incredibly excited to watch some more Duke basketball!

It will definitely be interesting to see how the rotation plays out in a serious contest without Grayson. I'm on the "Frank will start" side, as well as the "Jayson will play almost exclusively power forward" side. Coach K almost never goes big, especially when the opposing team is playing small. Considering VT's only guys who are averaging 14 or more minutes per game are: LeDay (6'7"), Hill (6'5"), Robinson (6'1"), Allen (6'1"), Clarke (6'6"), and Bibbs (6'5"), I'm guessing Frank Jackson is going to start and play all the minutes he can handle.

More importantly, Frank is the only guy who can reasonably be expected to assume Grayson's role in the offense as the primary ball handler and penetrator. Luke is best used off the ball to start possessions (he's the best catch-and-shoot guy we have), and Matt just doesn't have the quickness to be a dynamic play maker on offense. The guy who will need to step up in Grayson's absence the most will be Frank. He won't necessarily need to light it up offensively, as Jayson has really started asserting himself as a scorer lately, but we will be counting on him to be aggressive, and to get into the teeth of the defense and make plays without turning it over too much.

However, we seem to have become a different team offensively as Jayson has carved out a bigger slice of the offensive load. Amile's touches have gone way down, and ball movement has become more stagnant. First, Amile definitely needs more touches in the post. He's been incredibly effective in the paint all season scoring and facilitating, and against this undersized VT squad, he needs to be a focal point. This recent offensive malaise is likely a product of first semester exams, but could also be attributed to Jayson's long absence due to injury. Jayson in particular, because he has the largest role in the offense of the 3 guys who have been out. Fluid ball movement and team offense requires a lot of familiarity and chemistry that can only be developed through countless reps in practice. Jayson, Marques, and Harry have hopefully gotten in some good practices before this game, so the #1 thing I'll be watching for is how they will be used on offense.

Overall, I'm not too worried about Grayson's absence, as Frank is more than capable of stepping up as an impact player, and we shouldn't lose much defensively. Hopefully we can play well enough to put this game out of reach early, so that our guards won't need to play too many minutes.

[Bob Green]

Hopefully we can play well enough to put this game out of reach early, so that our guards won't need to play too many minutes.

Excellent post overall that I agree with for the most part right up until the final sentence. Our guards are going to play a lot of minutes against VT. If any of Luke Kennard, Matt Jones or Frank Jackson are spending significant minutes on the bench it will be because of foul trouble or injury (knock on the side of my head).

[kAzE]

Excellent post overall that I agree with for the most part right up until the final sentence. Our guards are going to play a lot of minutes against VT. If any of Luke Kennard, Matt Jones or Frank Jackson are spending significant minutes on the bench it will be because of foul trouble or injury (knock on the side of my head).

I expect those 3 will play almost the entire game, and be on the floor as long as the outcome is in doubt. I'm just hoping for us to somehow blow them out, and be up by so much that we don't need to play those guys 37+ minutes. Not saying it's likely, but we do have some really damn good players. It could happen . . .

If Jack White is playing point guard at any point, we should be in pretty good shape :)

[jv001]

I expect those 3 will play almost the entire game, and be on the floor as long as the outcome is in doubt. I'm just hoping for us to somehow blow them out, and be up by so much that we don't need to play those guys 37+ minutes. Not saying it's likely, but we do have some really damn good players. It could happen . . .

If Jack White is playing point guard at any point, we should be in pretty good shape :)

I agree that Luke, Matt and Frank will get the most minutes. My biggest worry is Frank getting in foul trouble. If that happens, Matt will walk the ball up the court, unless Jayson can take the ball the length of the court. I wouldn't mind seeing us use the press to take advantage of our length(Amile, Giles, Jayson, Jeter and Bolden). I remember when he used a 1-3-1 Zone that really surprised me. Just stay out of foul trouble and bring back a victory. GoDuke!

[bird]

Taking the family to the game. No Duke paraphernalia, strict instructions to family unit not to engage with Hokie faithful - call me a wimp. Much talk about Lehigh and Mercer in my household (we were there for both -- Ouch!) as well as VCU (not there, big Ouch! given we live in Richmond) and Villanova (was there, moderate Ouch! given the better team won). Also negative in discussion in the family unit about the political pull used to get VaTech into the league. Game sold out, will be nuts environment for our freshmen. When we win it will be a good thing. If not - Ouch! again.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Delta … opponent (opp rank per SRS) … expected delta based on today’s SRS for Duke and opponent … difference between delta and expected delta

+49 UNLV (155) … +25 … Duke +24 over expectation
+45 Marist (301) … +36 … Duke +09 over expectation
+39 Maine (309) … +37 … Duke +02 over expectation
+35 App State (245) … +32 … Duke +03 over expectation
+35 Grand Canyon (143) ... +25 ... Duke +10 over expectation
+21 W&M (194) … +28 … Duke -07 under expectation
+11 Elon (151) … +25 … Duke -14 under expectation
+10 Tenn State (129) … +23 … Duke -13 under expectation
+10 Penn State (81) … +18 … Duke -08 under expectation
+10 Rhode Island (49) … +13 … Duke -03 under expectation
__ Virginia Tech (43) … +11 …. Duke __ over/under expectation
+10 Florida (18) … +05 … Duke +05 over expectation
+09 Michigan State (51) … +14 … Duke -05 under expectation
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-02 Kansas (8) … +0.5 … Duke -1.5 under expectation

Duke has 11 wins of 10+ points, 1 win of +09 points, and 1 loss, to the #8 SRS team, by 2 points.

If Duke plays as far under expectation as it did against Elon and Tenn State, then Duke will lose; if Duke meets/exceeds expectations, or only underperforms a bit (and Duke has met, exceeded, or only underperformed a bit in 11 of 13 games this year), then Duke wins.

Isn't that sort of like saying "if we score more points than VaTech we will win?" We are a very good team. We have been favored in every single game so far this season, and we have won all but one (the closest line on the board, obviously).

So, you are saying our margin for error shrinks as we enter the meat of the schedule? Good! Let's go win a bunch of meaningful games, and continue to be favored - by reason of domination rather than expectation or reputation.

Let's go Duke!

[Reilly]

[1] Isn't that sort of like saying "if we score more points than VaTech we will win?"
[2] We are a very good team. ...
[3] So, you are saying our margin for error shrinks as we enter the meat of the schedule? ...

1. No, it's saying that if we play as expected, or even under expectation by a fair amount, we'll still win. That's different than saying the team that scores more, wins.
2. Yes, we are a very good team. How many points are we favored by? Teams favored by that many points (whatever it is) on the road in a conference game do lose X% of the time, but win the majority of the time.
3. I didn't say anything about that. Your point seems to be obviously true. We've played the #8, #18, #49 team already and did well. I expect the same -- doing well -- on Saturday against the #43 team. May not equal victory, but the chances are good.

I was just curious if this team is performing up to expectations (which were very high). Generally, yes, so far.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I was just curious if this team is performing up to expectations (which were very high). Generally, yes, so far.

I apologize for over-simplifying your take. Given the gloom and doom on this board, I find it pleasantly surprising that we are meeting expectations. Also, I expect that the bar will be raised moving forward.

We are so fortunate to be Duke fans!

[Reilly]

... Given the gloom and doom on this board, I find it pleasantly surprising that we are meeting expectations. Also, I expect that the bar will be raised moving forward. ...

The gloom and doom is what caused me to look. We have issues (injuries, lack of practice time together, suspended captain, tough conference) but have been whomping folks, regardless. I don't want to be spoiled and overlook 10-point victories over top 50 teams. Those are good things and hard-earned and worthy of celebration. To be seen whether we become a juggernaut and how we handle the tougher times coming our way -- that's why it's fun to watch.

[Indoor66]

Heck, this is DBR. We deal in gloom, doom and indignation.

[Ultrarunner]

Heck, this is DBR. We deal in gloom, doom and indignation.

You missed sarcasm and the tendency of some DBR members to PUNish the rest with so-called humor.

We're pretty well-rounded.

[gofurman]

You missed sarcasm and the tendency of some DBR members to PUNish the rest with so-called humor.

We're pretty well-rounded.


In any case the point about Jefferson is a good one. V Florida and UNLV (a good team and a whooping) ha had a 24 pt/15 board performance and a 12 pt/10 board performance.

Vs TSU and Elon (smaller teams) he had a 5 pt/ 18 board. And 13 pt 7 board performance... The points mainly from FTs.


More to the point here is how many shots he took in last games :

Michigan state 12
Maine. 11
Florida 14
UNLV 6 (this is the exception. Grayson and others went off in this game)
TSU. 7
Elon. 3. 3??

See a trend relative to Duke's performance??? Amile needs to take 10-15 shots in my opinion ...or at least feed him and let him decide to kick it out if doubled etc. Even then I think he ought to take ten shots

That trend is glaring

[NSDukeFan]

You missed sarcasm and the tendency of some DBR members to PUNish the rest with so-called humor.

We're pretty well-rounded.

I believe there is also an anti-jinx upset area as well. I don't want to jinx it by speaking of it too much.

[gofurman]

In any case the point about Jefferson is a good one. V Florida and UNLV (a good team and a whooping) ha had a 24 pt/15 board performance and a 12 pt/10 board performance.

Vs TSU and Elon (smaller teams) he had a 5 pt/ 18 board. And 13 pt 7 board performance... The points mainly from FTs.


More to the point here is how many shots he took in last games :

Michigan state 12
Maine. 11
Florida 14
UNLV 6 (this is the exception. Grayson and others went off in this game)
TSU. 7
Elon. 3. 3??

See a trend relative to Duke's Overall performance??? Amile needs to take 10-15 shots in my opinion ...or at least feed him and let him decide to kick it out if doubled etc. Even then I think he ought to take ten shots

That trend is glaring. The less Amile shoots. The worse Duke does

[Reilly]

Heck, this is DBR. We deal in gloom, doom and indignation.

And pedantry -- consider using an Oxford comma next time: gloom, doom, and indignation.

[Furniture]

And pedantry -- consider using an Oxford comma next time: gloom, doom, and indignation.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZW7bB8D_mAY

More band reference fun.....

[Kedsy]

That trend is glaring

It's not glaring, because the sample size of Amile shooting fewer shots is only three games, and one of those three was the "exception."

It could be argued, for example, that the main reason our offensive efficiency was down in our last two games was not that Amile didn't shoot enough, but that Jayson shot too much. Jayson took the most shots of any Duke player in both games, but shot 36% against Tenn St. and 32% against Elon (in the UNLV game, Jayson was third on the team in shots while shooting 45%, which might help explain why it was the exception). Now, Jayson shooting more while Amile shot less are certainly related phenomena, but it's all an issue of balance. If Jayson continues to lead Duke in shots but be last on the team in eFG%, then our overall offensive efficiency will continue going down. On the other hand, if Coach K thought this would continue to happen, he'd probably give Jayson a talking to. Hopefully, going forward, we'll take (and make) more high-percentage shots, no matter who's taking them.



TSU. 7
Elon. 3. 3??

* * *
Amile needs to take 10-15 shots in my opinion ...


Also, Amile's eFG% is 65%. His true shooting % is 64%. Both those are really good, but if he took 10 shots against Elon, based on the stats he would have made two additional shots and, assuming those two additional shots took the place of two actual empty Duke possessions, it would mean we'd have won the Tenn St. game by 14 instead of 10. Would you say a 14-point win would have been a substantially better result than the 10-point win we actually got? Then again, if the two extra Amile shots took the place of two Duke possessions when we scored anyway, then the final score would have been exactly the same.

[DukieInBrasil]

Also, Amile's eFG% is 65%. His true shooting % is 64%. Both those are really good, but if he took 10 shots against Elon, based on the stats he would have made two additional shots and, assuming those two additional shots took the place of two actual empty Duke possessions, it would mean we'd have won the Tenn St. game by 14 instead of 10. Would you say a 14-point win would have been a substantially better result than the 10-point win we actually got? Then again, if the two extra Amile shots took the place of two Duke possessions when we scored anyway, then the final score would have been exactly the same.

Pardon my math but it seems that 10-3 = 7, so if Amile had taken 10 shots vs. Elon he would have taken and additional 7 shots. With an eFG% of 64% we would expect Amile to make 4 extra shots +1 of 2 FTs, for an extra 9 points (the same caveats apply to Amile's shots vs. expected outcome for Duke possessions apply).
I get the feeling that a 19-pt win would assuage a portion of the fan base's anxiety, relative to a 10-pt win, but it still wouldn't have covered the spread so it's not like magically giving Amile 10 shots instead of 3 would dramatically change the response to the win.

[Edouble]

Taking the family to the game. No Duke paraphernalia, strict instructions to family unit not to engage with Hokie faithful - call me a wimp. Much talk about Lehigh and Mercer in my household (we were there for both -- Ouch!) as well as VCU (not there, big Ouch! given we live in Richmond) and Villanova (was there, moderate Ouch! given the better team won). Also negative in discussion in the family unit about the political pull used to get VaTech into the league. Game sold out, will be nuts environment for our freshmen. When we win it will be a good thing. If not - Ouch! again.

Have you been present for any Blue Devil victories?

If not, I implore you to stop going to games.

[Saratoga2]

I just went through Brian Peterson's recent article in which he talks about 26 NCAA teams. In the case of Duke, he opines that "Duke is the most hated team and there is doubt about it". I can think of at least 4 teams that should be way ahead of Duke in that category including UNC, Louisville, Syracuse and UCONN. I have no axe to grind as I am a Duke fan but not an Alum. Perhaps Peterson got his education at UNC.

[DukieTiger]

I just went through Brian Peterson's recent article in which he talks about 26 NCAA teams. In the case of Duke, he opines that "Duke is the most hated team and there is doubt about it". I can think of at least 4 teams that should be way ahead of Duke in that category including UNC, Louisville, Syracuse and UCONN. I have no axe to grind as I am a Duke fan but not an Alum. Perhaps Peterson got his education at UNC.

If so, then we shouldn't fault him for the anti-Duke slant in the article...

Because someone else likely wrote it! :p

[devildeac]

I just went through Brian Peterson's recent article in which he talks about 26 NCAA teams. In the case of Duke, he opines that "Duke is the most hated team and there is doubt about it". I can think of at least 4 teams that should be way ahead of Duke in that category including UNC, Louisville, Syracuse and UCONN. I have no axe to grind as I am a Duke fan but not an Alum. Perhaps Peterson got his education at UNC.

Education and unc in the same sentence. :confused:

[WiJoe]

Meanwhile, steering away from the drivel that has overtaken this thread, @DukeMBB shows someone wearing a boot as the fellas board the plane for hooterville. Appears to be Frank Jackson. Fantastic. At least he's walking.

[Kedsy]

Pardon my math but it seems that 10-3 = 7, so if Amile had taken 10 shots vs. Elon he would have taken and additional 7 shots. With an eFG% of 64% we would expect Amile to make 4 extra shots +1 of 2 FTs, for an extra 9 points (the same caveats apply to Amile's shots vs. expected outcome for Duke possessions apply).
I get the feeling that a 19-pt win would assuage a portion of the fan base's anxiety, relative to a 10-pt win, but it still wouldn't have covered the spread so it's not like magically giving Amile 10 shots instead of 3 would dramatically change the response to the win.

Sorry, yes, I meant Tennessee State.

As for Elon, it would be a 19-point win instead of a 10 point win only if Amile's positive possessions were all possessions that we otherwise wouldn't have scored. Which I assume is unlikely but I don't know how to figure out how unlikely.

[Devilwin]

So we are the most hated team, right? Good. Means we're doing something right...:cool:

[OldPhiKap]

So we are the most hated team, right? Good. Means we're doing something right...:cool:

No one hates Wake Forest.

[brevity]

No one hates Wake Forest.

Except their former assistant coach turned former radio announcer.

[OldPhiKap]

Except their former assistant coach turned former radio announcer.

Self-hate is a form of love. Or so my therapist says.

[House G]

My son said this picture was posted on Facebook--is Frank Jackson wearing a boot?6995

[subzero02]

Back... and to the left.

[dball]

It's not glaring, because the sample size of Amile shooting fewer shots is only three games, and one of those three was the "exception."

It could be argued, for example, that the main reason our offensive efficiency was down in our last two games was not that Amile didn't shoot enough, but that Jayson shot too much. Jayson took the most shots of any Duke player in both games, but shot 36% against Tenn St. and 32% against Elon (in the UNLV game, Jayson was third on the team in shots while shooting 45%, which might help explain why it was the exception). Now, Jayson shooting more while Amile shot less are certainly related phenomena, but it's all an issue of balance. If Jayson continues to lead Duke in shots but be last on the team in eFG%, then our overall offensive efficiency will continue going down. On the other hand, if Coach K thought this would continue to happen, he'd probably give Jayson a talking to. Hopefully, going forward, we'll take (and make) more high-percentage shots, no matter who's taking them.



Also, Amile's eFG% is 65%. His true shooting % is 64%. Both those are really good, but if he took 10 shots against Elon, based on the stats he would have made two additional shots and, assuming those two additional shots took the place of two actual empty Duke possessions, it would mean we'd have won the Tenn St. game by 14 instead of 10. Would you say a 14-point win would have been a substantially better result than the 10-point win we actually got? Then again, if the two extra Amile shots took the place of two Duke possessions when we scored anyway, then the final score would have been exactly the same.

Shouldn't Amile's increased free throws over the last couple of games be a consideration? Fouled in the act of shooting would not be a FGA. With 11 FTs against Elon, that would indicate another 5 shots or so. 8 FTs against TN St. Haven't looked at replays but it could be Amile is close to his usual number of shots but he's just being hacked more.

[FerryFor50]

Provided Frank is healthy, I think Duke's offense might actually look a little better than the past couple games with Grayson in the lineup.

After seemingly figuring out to distribute the ball more, Allen reverted to trying to press on offense too much after he lit up UNLV.

12 pts, 2 assists on 2-7 shooting vs Tenn St
3 points, 2 assists on 1-8 shooting vs Elon (plus his boneheaded tech)

Then Kennard and Tatum made comments about the team not buying in, selfishness, etc. Maybe was about Grayson, maybe not.

I, for one, am intrigued as to how the team responds.

[jv001]

Provided Frank is healthy, I think Duke's offense might actually look a little better than the past couple games with Grayson in the lineup.

After seemingly figuring out to distribute the ball more, Allen reverted to trying to press on offense too much after he lit up UNLV.

12 pts, 2 assists on 2-7 shooting vs Tenn St
3 points, 2 assists on 1-8 shooting vs Elon (plus his boneheaded tech)

Then Kennard and Tatum made comments about the team not buying in, selfishness, etc. Maybe was about Grayson, maybe not.

I, for one, am intrigued as to how the team responds.

If Frank is injured and not able to play, get's in foul trouble or is limited because of an injury, then one of Matt, Luke or Jayson will be pressed into the role of distributor. Grayson was the guy that drove the ball and dished to Matt or Luke on many occasions. My wish if for Frank to be close to 100% and can play close to 30 minutes. If he is able to be our true point guard(facilitator), that will help tremendously. He began the year playing really well and then the injury bug slowed him down. If he can get back to early season form, he could be just what we need. At the start of the year I believe Coach K had Grayson in mind for the player with the keys to our offense but that changed with his injury. This has been an interesting season already and now the ACC season begins. What will happen next? Something good I hope. We're due for some good breaks, no good fortune. I don't want to even think about breaks. GoDuke!

[Olympic Fan]

I have no idea as to Frank's health status, but I know not to read too much into the fact that he's wearing a boot.

We all know that Seth Curry wore a boot throughout the 2013 season. And when Ryan Kelly returned from his injury late that season, he also worse a boot,

It's a preventative/safety measure.

FWIW, Marques Bolden has also been wearing a boot off the court.

Not saying that it's an ominous sign, but it doesn't necessarily mean a player is out -- or even severely limited.

[Kedsy]

Shouldn't Amile's increased free throws over the last couple of games be a consideration? Fouled in the act of shooting would not be a FGA. With 11 FTs against Elon, that would indicate another 5 shots or so. 8 FTs against TN St. Haven't looked at replays but it could be Amile is close to his usual number of shots but he's just being hacked more.

This is a great point. To test your theory, I took the six games that gofurman looked at then added free throw possessions (which for college is generally calculated as 0.475*fta) to get a sum of "shooting possessions." Then I further adjusted to a per 40 minute baseline, to take into account the fact that, e.g., Amile only played 27 minutes vs. Elon but 39 minutes against Florida.

Obviously we're making an assumption that when Amile shot free throws it was after a shot attempt and not a non-shooting foul while Duke was in the bonus. I can't imagine that assumption is 100% true, but I also don't feel like going through the play-by-play for six games. Anyway, here's the data:



Game Shots FTs mp sh poss sp/40 min
Mich St 12 6 35 14.85 16.97
Maine 11 4 34 12.90 15.18
Fla 14 2 39 14.95 15.33
UNLV 6 4 30 7.90 10.53
Tenn St 7 8 33 10.80 13.09
Elon 3 11 27 8.23 12.19


So, the added free throws don't necessarily account for the entire difference between the first three games and the last three, but it's not nearly the difference it looked like when presented with the raw shot data alone. It does suggest, however, that (again, assuming that Amile taking free throws is the equivalent of a shot) if Amile had taken a similar number of shots in the Tennessee St and Elon games as he did in the earlier games, it would as a best case have yielded between 2 and 4 additional Duke points in those latter games. (In other words, not enough to stop the DBR fretting.) It should also be noted that the game in which Amile took the least number of (adjusted) shots was the so-called "exception" game against UNLV.

[gofurman]

This is a great point. To test your theory, I took the six games that gofurman looked at then added free throw possessions (which for college is generally calculated as 0.475*fta) to get a sum of "shooting possessions." Then I further adjusted to a per 40 minute baseline, to take into account the fact that, e.g., Amile only played 27 minutes vs. Elon but 39 minutes against Florida.

Obviously we're making an assumption that when Amile shot free throws it was after a shot attempt and not a non-shooting foul while Duke was in the bonus. I can't imagine that assumption is 100% true, but I also don't feel like going through the play-by-play for six games. Anyway, here's the data:



Game Shots FTs mp sh poss sp/40 min
Mich St 12 6 35 14.85 16.97
Maine 11 4 34 12.90 15.18
Fla 14 2 39 14.95 15.33
UNLV 6 4 30 7.90 10.53
Tenn St 7 8 33 10.80 13.09
Elon 3 11 27 8.23 12.19


So, the added free throws don't necessarily account for the entire difference between the first three games and the last three, but it's not nearly the difference it looked like when presented with the raw shot data alone. It does suggest, however, that (again, assuming that Amile taking free throws is the equivalent of a shot) if Amile had taken a similar number of shots in the Tennessee St and Elon games as he did in the earlier games, it would as a best case have yielded between 2 and 4 additional Duke points in those latter games. (In other words, not enough to stop the DBR fretting.) It should also be noted that the game in which Amile took the least number of (adjusted) shots was the so-called "exception" game against UNLV.

Very good point. I noticed the free throws at one point but didn't take the time to get into all that. FTs certainly count!!! You can't have a FGA if you are being hacked. And that's fine. Make the FT and give the other team a foul. That's even better. Also a good point someone had in noting I was perhaps oversimplifying by saying 'Amile should shoot more' when it's a correlation w Jason's shooting amount too. Those shots have to come from somewhere. But we are making much the same point. - Jason is great but is not always efficient ... Amile is more efficient I think (not going to look but almost sure of that). Thus it still holds that maybe Jason should pass - or the team should pass - to Amile more. A few more Amile shots and a few less Jason shots perhaps.

Duke is only a four point Vegas favorite .... So I guess our DBR fretting is at least reflected there. Most years I would expect (don't know) Duke is a 10 pt fav in VPI. IE, half the money is on Duke minus four. Half the money is on VPI plus four. Public perception that Duke isn't playing well and that vpi is pretty good

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Game day! Finally... the quiet month of December almost feels like a mini-off-season.

Let's go run the table, starting today!

[OldPhiKap]

Game day! Finally... the quiet month of December almost feels like a mini-off-season.

Let's go run the table, starting today!

I have been wearing a protective walking boot all week, but I'm game-ready!

[Troublemaker]

Duke is only a four point Vegas favorite ... So I guess our DBR fretting is at least reflected there. Most years I would expect (don't know) Duke is a 10 pt fav in VPI.

Most years Duke isn't playing THIS Hokie team, which is the best VPI team they've had in at least a decade. That and Grayson Allen not playing are reasons why Duke is "only" a 4-pt favorite; I would've made this game even closer to a pick'em.



IE, half the money is on Duke minus four. Half the money is on VPI plus four. Public perception that Duke isn't playing well and that vpi is pretty good

No. Maybe after this game, that will be true. But right now, 4 out of every 5 bets are coming in on Duke to cover the 4.

[Rich]

I have been wearing a protective walking boot all week, but I'm game-ready!

I won't be allowed to watch today's game..I tripped my mother-in-law while lunging for the last piece of babka.

[Saratoga2]

Game day! Finally... the quiet month of December almost feels like a mini-off-season.

Let's go run the table, starting today!

Not only game day but also the beginning of conference play and the first true road game at the opponents home court. This will be a test and I am looking forward to a well played game.

When the season started, I had the impression that we had one of the strongest teams and one capable of the final four. With quality returning players and a super recruiting class, we seemed destined for big things. While we still may achieve a great deal, my expectations have dropped due to the many injuries and lack of practice time to integrate the newbies.

So far I believe that Amile Luke, and Jayson have surpassed expectations coming in while Matt and Chase are about where expected and Grayson has been fighting injuries and with the suspension is a bit of an unknown for the time being.

Of the other new guys who were expected to earn minutes, who would have expected all three to have sustained injuries. Frank has played the most and looks like he can contribute a lot once he gets through the foot injury. Harry and Margues injuries have held them back in PT so they haven't come along as yet. Maybe the 10 days between games will have allowed all three to move forward enough to make contributions today. Javin is also injured and I haven't heard a status on him, but he may well come along to get some PT this year.

It's up to coach K now to bring this team forward. Win or lose, I hope to see a cohesive style of play with the new players showing more of what they can and will do as the season moves forward.

[OldPhiKap]

I won't be allowed to watch today's game..I tripped my mother-in-law while lunging for the last piece of babka.

I wear a protective cup to watch every game after seeing CP3 hit Da Jules.

And I didn't want to say it, but your MIL was asking for it. The pater familias gets the babka. It is written. I think.

[Indoor66]

I won't be allowed to watch today's game..I tripped my mother-in-law while lunging for the last piece of babka.

Don't go! 😈😢😎

[Sgt. Dingleberry]

As good as VT is, 38th in kenpom, they're 9th in the ACC in kenpom. Haha...this year is going to be such a grind.

We catch a little break by playing VT, GT, and BC to start. I think this team is going to need some time to find its identity.

I would probably expect to win this game later in the year, but not necessarily today.

That being said, I'm so excited to watch some ACC play, UVA/UL and Wake/FSU have already been a ton of fun. It should be a great year. I'm just as excited to watch this team grow. Go Duke!

[Furniture]

Meanwhile, steering away from the drivel that has overtaken this thread, @DukeMBB shows someone wearing a boot as the fellas board the plane for hooterville. Appears to be Frank Jackson. Fantastic. At least he's walking.


Javin DeLaurier is wearing a walking boot on his right foot. The freshman has not participated in warmups the past three contests.

[Furniture]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/815235593781346304/video/1

[Furniture]

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=7000&stc=1

[Ultrarunner]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/815235593781346304/video/1

Mr. Giles looked downright springy in that last dunk. More, please, in game conditions.

[-jk]

DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox) is open!

If it gets a bit slow, refresh the page. If you're on a mobile device, you'll need to select "Blue" at the bottom.

As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines.

Let's Go Duke!

-jk

[BD80]

Javin DeLaurier is wearing a walking boot on his right foot. The freshman has not participated in warmups the past three contests.

Did someone in purchasing get a great deal on a large lot of walking boots? WTF?

[Indoor66]

Did someone in purchasing get a great deal on a large lot of walking boots? WTF?

Probably relates to a stock purchase. 😁😈😎

[NSDukeFan]

Did someone in purchasing get a great deal on a large lot of walking boots? WTF?

Don't tell others, but that's part of the unique recruiting pitch.

[NashvilleDevil]

I will not be shocked if Va. Tech comes out scorching the first 10 minutes or so and Duke has to battle to get back the rest of the game. I think this one comes down to the last 2 minutes. If the Hokies do win this please refrain from the sky is falling routine. Don't forget the last 2 title teams had bumps in the road.

[riverside6]

Live tempo-based stats for Duke/Virginia Tech...

http://www.scacchoops.com/duke-at-virginia-tech-basketball-live-stats-12312016

[Indoor66]

Tatum needs to pass. Have we forgotten about Amile?

[NYBri]

This is ugly.

[Spanarkel]

This is ugly.


We are not even close to their shooters at the 3 point arc.

[downeastdad]

We are not even close to their shooters at the 3 point arc.

Nor are we close to stopping a drive to the rim.

[Spanarkel]

Nor are we close to stopping a drive to the rim.


Right: a 6'1'' guard takes it right at Bolden without fear. There is blood in the water.

[Coballs]

Our defense is making this game unwatchable. Cory Alexander is making this game unlistenable.

[Indoor66]

We miss Grayson.

[dukelion]

For the love of god ESPN......

I thought they hit a new low last Monday night when they had the camera on Romo longer than any other player during the anthem but now they have a Grayson cam that is absolutely ridiculous. At one point the ref was standing in front of him and they still kept it there for ever.

SMH

[Indoor66]

Freshmen are freshmen with H.S. reputations.

[CDu]

Well, we have mostly played a big lineup so far. Now we will have to do so because Jackson has 3 fouls.

[Chicago 1995]

Va Tech is attacking on offense -- and attack our "best" defender Matt Jones and scoring at will.

I'm not sure what we're doing on offense.

This team just isn't very good right now.

[jipops]

So much for defense being a strength. This is domination. It's clear who the better team is right now.

[Indoor66]

What is Tatum's shooting % in this game?

[jipops]

I expected a loss today but I didn't think it would be over by halftime.

[kshepinthehouse]

This looks like a game in which we could have used Thornton.

[DukeWarhead]

Geez Louise. Proof that raw talent only gets you so far. Hoping for a New Years miracle in the second half.

[Spanarkel]

I expected a loss today but I didn't think it would be over by halftime.

At least Giles looks "springy" and more in sync.

[whereinthehellami]

Kennard is the only one that has elevated their game to match VTs.

I knew Buzz would have VT ready. They will be attacking the whole game. Duke is going to have to do some hard learning in this one. Keep your heads up guys and keep fighting.

[Spanarkel]

Kennard is the only one that has elevated their game to match VTs.

I knew Buzz would have VT ready. They will be attacking the whole game. Duke is going to have to do some hard learning in this one. Keep your heads up guys and keep fighting.


I know it's dark in Cassell but the announcer can't even tell the difference between Kennard and Jack White on that layup!

[DukeWarhead]

Halves like this make all the euphoria around big recruit signings seem stupid. How many five star recruits are on the VT side? Yes, over the long run, Duke will do well, but five stars are no guarantee - clearly.

[fuse]

After hearing the VT fans chant "We want Grayson", I really want to see our team come roaring back and win this game.

Let's go Duke!

[NYBri]

What have they been doing for the last 10 days? Not much, it looks like.

[Duke76]

Halves like this make all the euphoria around big recruit signings seem stupid. How many five star recruits are on the VT side? Yes, over the long run, Duke will do well, but five stars are no guarantee - clearly.

Its pretty basic, if you can't move your feet and get in front of people you're doomed on defense. On offense, if you can't get offensive rebounds you're doomed.

[Duke76]

Its pretty basic, if you can't move your feet and get in front of people you're doomed on defense. On offense, if you can't get offensive rebounds you're doomed.

Think i'd let Giles play most of the second half

[westwall]

For the love of god ESPN...

I thought they hit a new low last Monday night when they had the camera on Romo longer than any other player during the anthem but now they have a Grayson cam that is absolutely ridiculous. At one point the ref was standing in front of him and they still kept it there for ever.

SMH


Well, isn't ESPN (Skipper) awarding bonuses to the announcer/color man who (a) makes the most mentions of Grayson and/or (b) talks continuously about Grayson for the most consecutive minutes, in any given 40 minute game?? Today's announcing team apparently thinks so.

[CDu]

Think i'd let Giles play most of the second half

He has been the second best player for us in this one. Not saying a lot. The rest of the team has looked rough. Jones has two steals and a block, Tatum has drawn some fouls. But man has the team looked bad so far.

[DukeWarhead]

What have they been doing for the last 10 days? Not much, it looks like.

That's what I was thinking. No excuses on this one. No fatigue, the Grayson event was more than a week ago, but not so long ago that we can claim "rust." Just uninspired play, no defense, and poor, poor shooting.
Just hope it stings bad enough to make them angry.

[WakeDevil]

There is a cost to offensive rebounds. I refer you to Ken Pomeroy.

[bluenorth]

The players look as if they've just been introduced to each other. Too many passes are just a bit off, too many movements are just out of synch, too many rotations are slow. And for the freshmen, they're learning that in league play reputations don't score baskets or block shots. They'll be better in the second half, and some 3s will start to fall to help close the gap.

[jipops]

Think i'd let Giles play most of the second half

I agree. This game is over. I think it would help us down the road to give Giles and Bolden as many reps as possible.

[wavedukefan70s]

No way they keep shooting 58%we are at 38.we can come back..

[uh_no]

Coach K should just retire and Duke should end the basketball program. Heck, we should defund athletics and perhaps even just close the school!

[Doria]

No way they keep shooting 58%we are at 38.we can come back..

Agree, plenty of time. Gotta start defending, though. At least better... at all...

[FerryFor50]

Maybe this is the regular "drubbing in a national title year game."

Remember Georgetown in 2010 and Miami in 2015?

[jipops]

This is a very immature team with little to no cohesiveness. Not having anywhere close to a full roster to this point has us way behind everyone. Things will certainly get better but lack of pg is always going to be a problem, there are plenty of losses ahead. Unfortunately, hopes of catching that elusive ACC regular season title looks extremely slim, though I felt that was the case back in November. Still, things will eventually get better.

[Indoor66]

Today Duke has no one & done players.

[whereinthehellami]

Its not always about Duke. VT is a decent team this year, team being the key word. They play tough and together. They are also an athletic/attacking team. The kind of team Duke struggles with. Their weakeness being inside and Duke doesn't look to exploit that mismatch.

[porkpa]

Our defense has been embarrassing for a Duke team.

[jipops]

This game is last night's Rousey fight. Quick knock out, over early.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

Today Duke has no one & done players.

Just some "won or done" fans.

[Spanarkel]

Just some "won or done" fans.


Another MJ spastic "drive" to the rim ending in a flailing shot that's rejected. Does he practice that move?

[smythe13]

Just some "won or done" fans.
Good won

[Owen Meany]

Just some "won or done" fans.

Well done.

[jipops]

K making a huge mistake not playing Giles or Bolden here. The game has been over. Think bigger picture!

[rsvman]

Refs call the foul on every missed shot. No way to come back if that continues.

[dukelion]

Getting punched in the mouth is exactly what this team needed. Lots of teaching/intensity moments for the rest of the season.

VaTech is a good team too so I'm not considering this a terrible loss.

[smythe13]

Getting punched in the mouth is exactly what this team needed. Lots of teaching/intensity moments for the rest of the season.

VaTech is a good team too so I'm not considering this a terrible loss.

Agree. K will have their attention

[DukeWarhead]

Pathetic D. Straight doo-doo. I hope some tough, smoker practices will follow.

[jipops]

Agree. K will have their attention

Yea but whose? Great opportunity to give Giles some reps and he is passing on it. This gives me serious doubts we'll ever see Giles as an effective player in a Duke uni. He is squandering this.

[mr. synellinden]

One bright spot to note. Luke Kennard is a golden god.

Wish Giles and Bolden got more PT.

For about the 5th time, we need a PG.

[dukelion]

Can't understand what happened to Matt's 3pt shot.

The one's he's taking are wide open and they're not even close.

He'll be below 30% for the season now.

[kshepinthehouse]

One bright spot to note. Luke Kennard is a golden god.

Wish Giles and Bolden got more PT.

For about the 5th time, we need a PG.

Both defensively and offensively

[WVDUKEFAN]

Yea but whose? Great opportunity to give Giles some reps and he is passing on it. This gives me serious doubts we'll ever see Giles as an effective player in a Duke uni. He is squandering this.

Agreed. He's killing his own draft stock.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

This team is one Derryk short of awesome.

[dukelion]

Hey at least KenPom has the Hokies as top 35 team.

UNC is about to lose to a KenPom 156th ranked team.

[CDu]

This team is one Derryk short of awesome.

I disagree. We have Thornton. His name is Frank Jackson.

[Eternal Outlaw]

Pet peeve but I don't understand why the refs let Buzz Williams dance around on the court many times 3 or 4 feet while the ball on that side of the court. I really wish one of our guys would have Jason Kidd him and purposely bump into him to make the refs call a tech.

[whereinthehellami]

I'm concerned about the defense going forward and Duke's ability to fix it. There has not been enough continuity with the health issues to play the D that coach likes. With the meat of the schedule coming up, practice time is going to be limited.

There are a lot of ACC/tourney teams that will be able to do what VT did today. Granted VT was above average from 3 today but they got a lot of open looks. It was way to easy for VT today.

[kshepinthehouse]

I disagree. We have Thornton. His name is Frank Jackson.

He's nowhere close defensively.

[dukelion]

Hey at least KenPom has the Hokies as top 35 team.

UNC is about to lose to a KenPom 156th ranked team.

Also...they game is at GT and at the same time as their bowl game so the arena is pretty empty....actually has more UNC fans in it.

And they still loss by a solid margin.

[WVDUKEFAN]

UGLY.

[FerryFor50]

He's nowhere close defensively.

Yea but he doesn't come with a Tank Thornton with "uncle" accessory. So there's that.

[CDu]

He's nowhere close defensively.

Thornton's defensive reputation is wildly overstated.

[Kjeffrey]

Haven't watched any of the game but the box score says a lot about the offense. Kennard continues to dominate offensively. He knew he would have to earn his playing time this year and he has done just that and much more. Can't win too many games with one captain in street clothes and the other two shooting poorly.

[NashvilleDevil]

At least Carolina lost

[porkpa]

As bad as they were today and make no mistake about it, they were pretty bad. I'd still wager on this team to go further than any other team that anybody would care to mention.
Lots of work to do though.