2017 DBR ACC Wager Contest! Fellow Degenerates, Sign Up Any Time!

[richardjackson199]

...



Sportsmanship sporks for richardjackson.

Thanks!

I want a participation trophy... filled with beer. :cool:

[Bob Green]

Very well done, Bob! You and NYBri are in contention for comeback player of the season!

Thank you! Hopefully, I can keep it up. :cool:

[devildeac]

Exactly - whoever finishes last (which definitely might be me) should also sell their picks if they get a large enough sample size. Just advise the buyer to pick the opposite. :p

There is still LOTS of ACC season left to play, and it's a very fun year in the ACC (except for us so far). Anybody could make a strong push.

It's tough to beat DBR bragging rights of course, but I propose a small reward. I propose that whoever finishes dead last on the earnings list (or whoever is first to lose by dropping below 5000 - that hasn't happened yet, right?) buys one 6 pack of beer (Devildeac's choosing of course) for the first-place winner. Since I'm technically proposing rules in the middle, anybody should be allowed to opt out of this friendly wager, but still play. Or we can scrap it if folks don't like it. I'm proposing it, because I'm in strong contention to finish dead last (unintentionally regrettably), and who doesn't like devildeac quality beer?

(I'll also add that my filter at work won't let me see the leaderboard/loserboard right now, so if this would be very unfair to somebody close to the bottom now, somebody please advise)

I'm in. I'm gonna start collecting consultation fees on these types of things. :o

[devildeac]

I'm wondering if the restriction is 10 bets in any 24 hour period.

I can't even spork that much in a 24 hour period. :o

[devildeac]

Ha - thanks! If anybody hits Sin City and wants me to pick a game, just let me know. Take the opposite, and you've got over 71% odds. Best odds in Vegas!

One very fine 6 pack of beer on me, plus the champions hat awaits the winner of this year's DBR challenge. With devildeac picking, it will probably be the best beer you've ever tasted. I'll pay up in March, and Jason I'll get you 2 bones this week.

Go get that beer & hat boyz and girlz!


Get yer Visa card limit increased. You know my number, loser.;)

[BandAlum83]

As of right now, Jason is looking like a genius. Ten minutes in amd the game is on pace for an O/U of 120, and Syracuse will keep it to single digits.

[Troublemaker]

As of right now, Jason is looking like a genius. Ten minutes in amd the game is on pace for an O/U of 120, and Syracuse will keep it to single digits.

At halftime, UNC up 42-30, so not looking good for Cuse backers, unfortunately. I didn't have the under but that could be in trouble, too, despite being "on pace" to be under as of now.

Cuse likes to deploy a full-court press when they're down big (UVA knows about that), and that will drive up possessions and get the total over. If Syracuse loses against the spread, it'll be hard for the total to stay under. Best chance for the under would be Cuse getting back into this game and keeping it close.

[BandAlum83]

As of right now, Jason is looking like a genius. Ten minutes in and the game is on pace for an O/U of 120, and Syracuse will keep it to single digits.

Ok, so the rest of us are looking much better at halftime..

Carolina up 12 (-14.5) and 72 points scored on a 152.5 O/U.

[BandAlum83]

So 53 seconds to go, Carolina up by 15 at the line. Total points scored are 151.

Syracuse just emptied its bench as did Carolina. If UNC hits both, that covers the over of 152.5, and puts them up 17 against a 14.5.

With the benches cleared, does this end the scoring?

Will we end up with a push if he misses both and Syracuse scores a bucket? Has all the scoring finished for the game?

This would be too much to bear if I had a real $1,000 on the outcome of this game.

I remember now why I don't bet on sports.

(OK, will unpause now and see how this finishes)

[BandAlum83]

Syracuse missed 2 garbage time 3s that preserved the UNC -14.5. After UNC missed 2 free throws that would have iced it.

Now have to turn it off. Roy 800 wins. Second fastest ever?

Who cares, over 100 wins should be vacated.

[NYBri]

Who cares, over 100 wins should be vacated.

Thought the same thing. Wins will be gone!

[OldPhiKap]

Lance Armstrong was the quickest to seven yellow jerseys.

[jhmoss1812]

Really sucks that I had the O/U at 155.5. Ugh

[devildeac]

Syracuse missed 2 garbage time 3s that preserved the UNC -14.5. After UNC missed 2 free throws that would have iced it.

Now have to turn it off. Roy 800 wins. Second fastest ever?

Who cares, over 100 wins should be vacated.

I am not going to go back and count but I think it should be > 200 tainted victories that ought to be expunged, considering the new and improved ANOA appears to cover 2002-2011.

[Fish80]

I went under at 152. They got 153. Dirty rats.

[NYBri]

Really sucks that I had the O/U at 155.5. Ugh

I believe that's the first time the changing o/u was a factor? Some played when it was 155.5, others at 152.

I'm personally glad the neither of those two 3s by the 'Cuse dropped. I did have the Cheats, but would have gladly lost the bet for an Orange win.*

*Same sentiment does not carry over to politics.

[jhmoss1812]

I believe that's the first time the changing o/u was a factor? Some played when it was 155.5, others at 152.

I'm personally glad the neither of those two 3s by the 'Cuse dropped. I did have the Cheats, but would have gladly lost the bet for an Orange win.*

*Same sentiment does not carry over to politics.

3 1/2 points is such a big change for the O/U in sports betting. Pretty crazy stuff.

[du_bb1]

I believe that's the first time the changing o/u was a factor? Some played when it was 155.5, others at 152.

I'm personally glad the neither of those two 3s by the 'Cuse dropped. I did have the Cheats, but would have gladly lost the bet for an Orange win.*

*Same sentiment does not carry over to politics.


Got lucky-entered after the change--any way to play these after the game is over---would help my odds considerably.....rolleyes:

[Fish80]

Pitt v NC State O/U is at 158. Tough call.

[NYBri]

Pitt v NC State O/U is at 158. Tough call.

They are all tough, as I see it. Flying blind is the best strategy.

:cool:

[ChillinDuke]

Pitt v NC State O/U is at 158. Tough call.

3.5 as the spread is pretty tough as well, if you believe in the -4 home court advantage rule of thumb.

Not many games tonight. Anecdotal evidence only, but I tend to find it's harder to find a bargain when there are less games. Here's hoping you degenerates find value out there tonight.

- Chillin

[devildeac]

They are all tough, as I see it. Flying blind is the best strategy.
:cool:

Richardjackson199 (and/or his wife :rolleyes:) might have some insight on that idea.:o

[richardjackson199]

Richardjackson199 (and/or his wife :rolleyes:) might have some insight on that idea.:o

She was highly amused that a monkey could make better picks than me. And then she wouldn't even let me get the monkey! :p

[BandAlum83]

3.5 as the spread is pretty tough as well, if you believe in the -4 home court advantage rule of thumb.

Not many games tonight. Anecdotal evidence only, but I tend to find it's harder to find a bargain when there are less games. Here's hoping you degenerates find value out there tonight.



- Chillin


I'm 6.6 seconds from a +1000!

Pitt +3.5 and under 158

[BandAlum83]

I'm 6.6 seconds from a +1000!

Pitt +3.5 and under 158

Now state at line.

Damn.NCState up 5


From +1000 to -50 in 2 seconds. Last second meaningless shot off the rim.

[Fish80]

I took the over. And took a bath.

[jhmoss1812]

Thank goodness Henderson got fouled at the end there. Really thought DSJ was going to cost me on NCSU -3.5 with his end of game decision making.

+200 on NCSU -3.5
-330 on O/U 160.

Not the best but could have been much worse.

[Fish80]

Now the New York cheese guy is breathing down my neck.
😳😊

[NYBri]

Now the New York cheese guy is breathing down my neck.
😳😊

Cheese?

[JasonEvans]

I'm 6.6 seconds from a +1000!

Pitt +3.5 and under 158

Woulda been a +700 for me... instead, I go down 770. Grrrrrrr. It is freaking amazing how close many of these games are to the lines.

[JasonEvans]

Gaaak! I was submitting my wages for tomorrow and neglected to adjust one of them. As a result, I now have 500 on Miami to beat Wake at Wake. Ooops! I probably would have made that a 200 unit wager. Oh well. Maybe I will get lucky ;)

[NYBri]

Woulda been a +700 for me... instead, I go down 770. Grrrrrrr. It is freaking amazing how close many of these games are to the lines.

The last two especially.

[Fish80]

Cheese?

Brie?

[NYBri]

Brie?

No cheese involved.

I live in New York.

My name is Brian.

😎

[ChillinDuke]

Now state at line.

Damn.NCState up 5


From +1000 to -50 in 2 seconds. Last second meaningless shot off the rim.

-4, BandAlum. -4.

From a 3pt lead to a 5pt lead at the final moment. -4 sounds about right to me.

- Chillin

[Indoor66]

No cheese involved.

I live in New York.

My name is Brian.

😎

I think you may be a closet Cheesehead! 😈😎

[Fish80]

No cheese involved.

I live in New York.

My name is Brian.

😎

I mean no disrespect. Just have a warped sense of humor. 😊

I live in VIrginia. But grew up in New York suburbia.

My name is Walter. My oldest brother is also named Brian. Good name.

I'm fond of many cheeses.

Good luck with the wagers. You're on an impressive run. My mojo dried up.

[Troublemaker]

-Jason "this is a great lesson in how hard it is to make money because of the vig... and I head to the real Las Vegas next weekend to learn it with real money" Evans

This is perhaps a nice "buy low" point for Duke futures. We previously were 3-to-1 to win the national championship and now we're around 8.5-to-1. (http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/futures/)

Something to consider.

It's still probably poor odds since Vegas is supposed to give you poor odds. BUT, if people were itching to get money down on Duke to win it all this season, it's now or never. A hint of us playing well again will quickly bring the odds back down in the direction of 3-to-1.

[NYBri]

Looks like karma has way of catching up. Not a good night so far. Hope to break close to even ... best case.

[jhmoss1812]

Wow what a horrible night....1-5 so far and -1240 a possible -550 coming in the VT/GT game.

I've completely fallen off the first page of the leaderboard after tonight.

[Troublemaker]

Wow what a horrible night...1-5 so far and -1240 a possible -550 coming in the VT/GT game.

I've completely fallen off the first page of the leaderboard after tonight.

I had it worse -- didn't win a single bet tonight. I'm up against the DQ line at this point and have a must-win bet tomorrow to stay alive. I remember winning an all-in bet last season to stay alive but not sure I'll have the same luck this season. It's just been a massacre the past couple of weeks. I'll be on Clemson tomorrow if someone wants to fade.

[du_bb1]

Clemson spread dropped to 6.5--Snyder not playing---theoretically sounds like a good bet

but then what do I know....

[JasonEvans]

Whew, I had my 8th consecutive day of negative wagers last night. My worst day yet with a -1140. Ouch!

In theory, most of us should be just a little bit negative as the lines are set to inspire equal bets on each side with the vig providing a profit to the house. Well, we have only 10 players in positive territory with 21 in negative numbers, many of them down more than 1000 units.

-Jason "I see this as a good thing headed to Vegas for some real wagers. It means I am due for a hot streak... right?" Evans

[Indoor66]

-Jason "I see this as a good thing headed to Vegas for some real wagers. It means I am due for a hot streak... right?" Evans

Believe that you are due for a "hot streak" and you will arrive in Vegas as a Casino's Dream. 😁😈😎

[Troublemaker]

Clemson spread dropped to 6.5--Snyder not playing---theoretically sounds like a good bet

but then what do I know...

Down to 5.5 and 5 at some places now. I definitely grabbed a good line. Hopefully this isn't a case of a team being able to rally for an impressive win in its first game missing a key player.

[ChillinDuke]

Whew, I had my 8th consecutive day of negative wagers last night. My worst day yet with a -1140. Ouch!

In theory, most of us should be just a little bit negative as the lines are set to inspire equal bets on each side with the vig providing a profit to the house. Well, we have only 10 players in positive territory with 21 in negative numbers, many of them down more than 1000 units.

-Jason "I see this as a good thing headed to Vegas for some real wagers. It means I am due for a hot streak... right?" Evans

Jason, interesting you bring up the bolded. It's not exactly true, from my research/experience. It's a common misnomer.

Vegas does not want equal money on both sides so that the vig provides a profit. That ends up being the optimal dynamic for profit maximization in many or most cases. But the relationship is not as you suggest.

Vegas wants profit maximization. Period. They want the highest odds of the most profit. It's a nuance but an important one. Why? Because there are instances (some argue frequent instances) where Vegas sets lines so that they can get even more than 50% of the money on one side of a losing bet. If you look hard enough you can find examples. Vegas plays into public views and biases, such as recency bias which I've discussed before on the Board. Recency bias is an easy example because it's relatable. Let's use a hypothetical example, let's say Duke beats UNLV by 49 points and looks absurdly good doing it. Well, Vegas may want to push out a line that puts 60% or 70% or even more money on Duke in their next game. Why? Because people watch a game like UNLV and place too much weight on the result, meaning they expect that result to perpetuate into the immediate future. Said differently, people think Duke is "clicking" and will blow out their next opponent. Enter: Tennessee State. Duke wins by 10 and doesn't cover (I assume). In this example using recency bias, people don't place enough relative value on the tails of a distribution - meaning they think tail events (unlikely events, e.g. Duke winning by only 10) are less likely than they actually are. Because their objective judgment is clouded by a recent (possibly tail) performance that was extremely strong.

The example I give above is just an example. I have no idea if the money on the Duke/Tenn St game was 50/50. It might have been 50/50 and likely was - again, most games do not have the sort of biases that would lend themselves to Vegas moving money onto one side or another. But it exists and, depending on your view, is a fairly common way that Vegas makes their profit.

Said differently, it's easy for Vegas to hit singles (the vig). But they absolutely go for home runs as well, if their models say they should.

Figured it was worth reiterating this point since we're having fun fake betting on this thread. (BTW - Shout out to TM who I have a feeling knows way more about this sort of stuff than I do.)

- Chillin

[Troublemaker]

Said differently, it's easy for Vegas to hit singles (the vig). But they absolutely go for home runs as well, if their models say they should.

Great post, Chillin -- you have it right. And sometimes those home runs turn into pop-ups to the pitcher. This past weekend of NFL action is an example (http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/18487333/william-hill-says-sunday-was-worst-day-ever) in which Vegas got destroyed by Joe Q. Public. If Vegas always balances the sides and takes the vig as urban myth suggests, they would never have suffer losses like that. If you follow reporting on sports gambling (and espn.com has a section now for that at espn.com/chalk), you'll see that the bookies alternate between having great days and awful days and everything in between. Overall, and in the long-run, they win money. But on particular games, they may lose and even lose big.

[BandAlum83]

Whew, I had my 8th consecutive day of negative wagers last night. My worst day yet with a -1140. Ouch!

In theory, most of us should be just a little bit negative as the lines are set to inspire equal bets on each side with the vig providing a profit to the house. Well, we have only 10 players in positive territory with 21 in negative numbers, many of them down more than 1000 units.

-Jason "I see this as a good thing headed to Vegas for some real wagers. It means I am due for a hot streak... right?" Evans

It's a good thing if it encourages you to stick to poker and stay far away from the sportsbook!

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Whew, I had my 8th consecutive day of negative wagers last night. My worst day yet with a -1140. Ouch!

In theory, most of us should be just a little bit negative as the lines are set to inspire equal bets on each side with the vig providing a profit to the house. Well, we have only 10 players in positive territory with 21 in negative numbers, many of them down more than 1000 units.

-Jason "I see this as a good thing headed to Vegas for some real wagers. It means I am due for a hot streak... right?" Evans
Took vacation in Tahoe and had to flee to Reno yesterday ahead of huge winter storm so we could fly out today. So naturally I took the opportunity to test my over/under skills last night for real... and lost betting the over on UVA/BC. Thankfully it wasn't too painful of a reminder. Could have been worse. I was absolutely certain the ND/FSU game would finish well under the 155.5 total and would have placed a more sizeable bet had I been able to get to the sports book on time. Thank god my kids kept me from making it there. So, two good reminders why I don't and should never bet on sports.

[BandAlum83]

Louisville - Clemson was easy money tonight

+1,000

:)

[Troublemaker]

Down to 5.5 and 5 at some places now. I definitely grabbed a good line. Hopefully this isn't a case of a team being able to rally for an impressive win in its first game missing a key player.

D'oh, it was. Alright, I DQed myself but will continue participating in the thread. Watching how hapless Clemson was made me feel better about Duke's loss, too.

[NYBri]

Two wins tonight. Bright spot in an otherwise depressing week's end.

[Troublemaker]

Two wins tonight. Bright spot in an otherwise depressing week's end.

I'm impressed you've almost caught Fish80. I thought if that were to happen, Fish80 would have to go on a losing streak, but that really hasn't happened.

[du_bb1]

Clemson spread dropped to 6.5--Snyder not playing---theoretically sounds like a good bet

but then what do I know...

Even more proof that my basketball knowledge is very limited........down, down -down:(

[Fish80]

I'm impressed you've almost caught Fish80. I thought if that were to happen, Fish80 would have to go on a losing streak, but that really hasn't happened.

Me Brie is on an impressive run. I'm going to need another streak to hold on.

I got the over on Louisville v Clemson, but chickened out on the spread. I've done awful v the spread.

Maybe Jason can open the limit and I can bet it all on Duke tomorrow. 😳😊🙈🙉🙊

[NYBri]

There is still plenty of time for anyone to win this thing. Not even half way through the season yet and the ACCT looms. Tons of games with upsets galore.

[Troublemaker]

There is still plenty of time for anyone to win this thing. Not even half way through the season yet and the ACCT looms. Tons of games with upsets galore.

True -- well, except for me and Richard since we're DQ'ed -- but I think it will have to involve you and Fish80 coming back towards the pack a bit.

10 to 12 max bets above $0 is tough.

[BandAlum83]

Looking at the spreads for tomorrow's games, I am really at a loss. Just taking FSU so far.

No O/U posted yet.

[Fish80]

What the heck? Still no O/U.

[Fish80]

Some of the O/U's are up now.

[Troublemaker]

Looking at the spreads for tomorrow's games, I am really at a loss. Just taking FSU so far.

No O/U posted yet.

I've been a great fade lately so maybe this will help. These would be my picks today if I were not DQ'ed -- just take the opposite:

http://i.imgur.com/uZI5843.png

[richardjackson199]

I've been a great fade lately so maybe this will help. These would be my picks today if I were not DQ'ed -- just take the opposite:

http://i.imgur.com/uZI5843.png

I'll play. Pick the opposite for easy Beer. As always - bet the Max 500 on each. My picks would be:

Notre Dame -7.5; Over 143

BC +19; Over 158.5

Florida State -4.5; Under 149

Ga Tech +18.5; Over 117.5

NC State -2; Under 165

Duke -10; Over 141

[Fish80]

Mr. Swift, how did you get NC State plus 1? Mine is NC State minus 1.

[BandAlum83]

BC/UNC

17 points scored in the last 46 seconds.

Smh

[Bob Green]

I'm +300 in the 12:00 o'clock games. I won 200 with the over in the UNC/BC game and 100 against the spread in the Notre Dame/Syracuse game.

On to the 2:00 pm games...

[CameronBlue]

I'm +300 in the 12:00 o'clock games. I won 200 with the over in the UNC/BC game and 100 against the spread in the Notre Dame/Syracuse game.

On to the 2:00 pm games...

Bold pick on the UNC game. Everyone pretty much laid off that one and with 67 points scored in the first half it was not looking good for the over.

[NYBri]

Going 0-5 in the 2 pm games doesn't help...after I was up 2-0 in the 12 noon game.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Uh, I quit.

I'm turning over the reins to my 11yr old.

[Fish80]

VTech v Clemson, I need somebody to start playing defense.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

VTech v Clemson, I need somebody to start playing defense.
Yeah. Not gonna happen. It's an unguarded 3pt fest.

[jhmoss1812]

After 6 straight losing days for a total of -1950 (ouch), I've won the last 2 nights for a total of +900. Back in the positive overall...barely

[BandAlum83]

Tonight could mark my exit from the competition.

Took NCState +16 and the under.

I think Duke will win handily, but 16 is a lot of points, especially if garbage time tightens the score.

I also think our defense will perform well, so 161 points will be hard to hit because NCState won't score enough.

Duke 87-72 is my call for tonight. :)

[ChillinDuke]

I lost both my bets on the Duke game on Sat.

And couldn't have been more giddy doing it.

- Chillin

[NYBri]

Not betting on the spread on Duke games any more. They are way too unpredictable. Full six bets tonight, though. Gotta be in it to win it.

[Fish80]

I placed two bets tonight. One under. One over. My under went over and my over went under. Arrrrgggghhhh.

[jhmoss1812]

Right back into the thick of things. 9-1 in my last 10 and 15-5 in my last 20 certainly helps.

[Fish80]

Bump.

Mr. Brie, we have nearly identical records.

[Bob Green]

Time to climb back out of the hole again and back into the Top 10. I'm sitting at -480, which is "good" enough for 19th place. I'm hitting the road this morning headed to Fayetteville to spend time with my Dad so I placed bets against the spread on all six ACC games this morning. If I get a chance to hop on a computer later, I'll get some O/U bets up as well. I prefer the O/U bets.

This contest is pure evil. I caught myself pulling for Carolina players to make free throws recently...blasphemy, sacrilege...positive thoughts about the evil empire just to protect some monopoly money on an O/U bet. Perhaps competition is the root of all evil.

[Fish80]

Congrats to NYBri! Our new points leader.

[CameronBlue]

Time to climb back out of the hole again and back into the Top 10. I'm sitting at -480, which is "good" enough for 19th place. I'm hitting the road this morning headed to Fayetteville to spend time with my Dad so I placed bets against the spread on all six ACC games this morning. If I get a chance to hop on a computer later, I'll get some O/U bets up as well. I prefer the O/U bets.

This contest is pure evil. I caught myself pulling for Carolina players to make free throws recently...blasphemy, sacrilege...positive thoughts about the evil empire just to protect some monopoly money on an O/U bet. Perhaps competition is the root of all evil.


It's not competition that's evil. Remember this is the weaufxgods universe, and this BBS has always misread the laws that govern the Weaufxgods universe. It's not about tempting fate, fate is not pre-determined pre- or post-weaufx, the Weaufxgods universe is not so rigidly structured. It's passion and commitment they admire "Weaufxing" does not annoy the gods, divided loyalties do. You're either a devoted and fanatical Crazy or you're just another vacuous sack of slowly deteriorating, off-gassing carbon isotopes who managed to score some tickets in the upper bowl.

[JasonEvans]

Quick, someone take a picture of the leaderboard. I'm back in positive figures at +60, I'm in the top 10 in ninth place, and I have the best total of anyone for the week. Someone please take a picture right now because unless duke covers I'm gonna be back in negative territory.

[Fish80]

I just lost 1100 clams and I'm so friggin happy!!!

GO DUKE!

[Indoor66]

I just lost 1100 clams and I'm so friggin happy!!!

GO DUKE!

Think of all the horseradish you saved! 😁

[jhmoss1812]

Quick, someone take a picture of the leaderboard. I'm back in positive figures at +60, I'm in the top 10 in ninth place, and I have the best total of anyone for the week. Someone please take a picture right now because unless duke covers I'm gonna be back in negative territory.

Please tell me how you have the best total of anyone for the week. I'm +1240 for the week and that's even with going -720 today.

[JasonEvans]

Please tell me how you have the best total of anyone for the week. I'm +1240 for the week and that's even with going -720 today.

Well, I just lost -660 on the Blue Devil game. I am still +880 for the week. I was +1540 before the Duke game delightfully hurt my bank account. That was enough to be a tiny bit ahead of you for a brief moment in time.

Now you are again the weekly leader. Are there more games tomorrow?

[jhmoss1812]

Well, I just lost -660 on the Blue Devil game. I am still +880 for the week. I was +1540 before the Duke game delightfully hurt my bank account. That was enough to be a tiny bit ahead of you for a brief moment in time.

Now you are again the weekly leader. Are there more games tomorrow?

Gotcha. Yeah there are two games - NCSU at Louisville and BC at VT. Also, UVA at Villanova but that's not eligible for betting.

[JasonEvans]

Gotcha. Yeah there are two games - NCSU at Louisville and BC at VT. Also, UVA at Villanova but that's not eligible for betting.

Jhmoss has BC and the under. I have VT and the over. This game will determine the weekly winner.

-Jason "no one has won the week more than once... I have a chance for weekly win #2 tonight!" Evans

[Troublemaker]

There are currently 28 people below $0 and only 8 people with positive money.

That is so cool.

Vig.

[jhmoss1812]

Jhmoss has BC and the under. I have VT and the over. This game will determine the weekly winner.

-Jason "no one has won the week more than once... I have a chance for weekly win #2 tonight!" Evans

I'll trade the weekly win for UVA beating Villanova :(

[NYBri]

There are currently 28 people below $0 and only 8 people with positive money.

That is so cool.

Vig.

Not even half way through. Plenty of time for anyone still in it to win it.

[Green Wave Dukie]

Not even half way through. Plenty of time for anyone still in it to win it.
Went 1 and 1 and quickly jumped into 12th place. But I'm sure given a week or so, I'll be in the bottom 10.

When tomorrow should I expect them to publish Monday nights lines?

[JasonEvans]

Jhmoss has BC and the under. I have VT and the over. This game will determine the weekly winner.

-Jason "no one has won the week more than once... I have a chance for weekly win #2 tonight!" Evans

Jhmoss wins the week. Here are the weekly winners so far:

Jan 30 2017 jhmoss1812 19-9-0 +1620
Jan 23 2017 sagegrouse 12-5-0 +1950
Jan 16 2017 NYBri 15-8-0 +3100
Jan 9 2017 Fish80 17-7-0 +4650
Jan 2 2017 JasonEvans 8-4-0 +1000

[JasonEvans]

Bet with your head, not your heart. I always try to adhere to that. It is why I have bet on UNC several times this year. It is also why I sometimes take a Duke underdog (like NC State last Monday) to cover against Duke if I think the line is right. But, I never bet on Duke to lose. My heart steps in the way every time.

That leads me tonight's game. Duke is a 1.5 point favorite at Notre Dame. I suppose one could bet on Notre Dame and hope Duke wins by 1 point, but it really feels like a wager on the Irish is a wager expecting Duke to lose. At the same time, it feels to me like a bet on Duke is insane here. We are talking about a Duke team that still feels very much in flux. They don't seem at all consistent and have not played well on the road. Plus, Notre Dame has owned Duke in recent years, more than any other team in the ACC. A bet on Duke seems almost insane.

-Jason "What am I to do? I suppose I could skip the game... sigh... but I feel like a bet on ND is one of the best bets I could make this whole season" Evans

[flyingdutchdevil]

Bet with your head, not your heart. I always try to adhere to that. It is why I have bet on UNC several times this year. It is also why I sometimes take a Duke underdog (like NC State last Monday) to cover against Duke if I think the line is right. But, I never bet on Duke to lose. My heart steps in the way every time.

That leads me tonight's game. Duke is a 1.5 point favorite at Notre Dame. I suppose one could bet on Notre Dame and hope Duke wins by 1 point, but it really feels like a wager on the Irish is a wager expecting Duke to lose. At the same time, it feels to me like a bet on Duke is insane here. We are talking about a Duke team that still feels very much in flux. They don't seem at all consistent and have not played well on the road. Plus, Notre Dame has owned Duke in recent years, more than any other team in the ACC. A bet on Duke seems almost insane.

-Jason "What am I to do? I suppose I could skip the game... sigh... but I feel like a bet on ND is one of the best bets I could make this whole season" Evans

Ummmm....aren't those statements contradictory?

Or you can take my approach: bet against Duke to hedge your happiness. a) Duke wins and you lose a few bucks or b) Duke loses and you win a few bucks...

[Fish80]

Max bet on Duke! All in baby!

[Troublemaker]

Max bet on Duke! All in baby!

That would've been my bet, too. Then again, I'm DQ'ed.

The season has to turn at some point, right? You want to be out ahead of the curve, not behind it.

[Bob Green]

Bet with your head, not your heart.

I bet 500 each on Duke and the over. The Miami comeback win should have been the team's wake up call but it wasn't it took the collapse to State and a comeback win over Wake for the team to get where they need to be. That's my theory, FWIW.

[ChillinDuke]

There are currently 28 people below $0 and only 8 people with positive money.

That is so cool.

Vig.

I was wondering when that would happen. For a while it was looking decently bell-ish.

- Chillin

[ChillinDuke]

Has anyone watched the KenPom bets soar recently? KP was below .500 for a while and is now way up and over 60%. Interesting.

- Chillin

[Troublemaker]

I was wondering when that would happen. For a while it was looking decently bell-ish.

- Chillin

I think what the math dorks would say is that it's still a bell curve, just shifted leftwards.

[Troublemaker]

Congrats to the sharp bettors who took Duke tonight.

Line opened at pick'em and moved to Duke -1 or -1.5. Yet, 63% of the spread bets and 67% of the moneyline bets were on Notre Dame. That kind of Reverse Line Movement is a tell-tale sign that the sharps were on Duke tonight.

Congratulations, sharps, and congratulations sportsbooks! And tsk, tsk to all the fish who were baited in (https://twitter.com/DaveMasonBOL/status/826208452934504452) by the too good to be true line on ND.

http://i.imgur.com/qReR6Sb.png

[ChillinDuke]

Congrats to the sharp bettors who took Duke tonight.

Line opened at pick'em and moved to Duke -1 or -1.5. Yet, 63% of the spread bets and 67% of the moneyline bets were on Notre Dame. That kind of Reverse Line Movement is a tell-tale sign that the sharps were on Duke tonight.

Congratulations, sharps, and congratulations sportsbooks! And tsk, tsk to all the fish who were baited in (https://twitter.com/DaveMasonBOL/status/826208452934504452) by the too good to be true line on ND.

http://i.imgur.com/qReR6Sb.png

Guilty as charged.

- Chillin

[BandAlum83]

I was wondering when that would happen. For a while it was looking decently bell-ish.

- Chillin

I just may put my -4600 up on the shelf and wait for everyone else to DQ. ;)

[rasputin]

I just may put my -4600 up on the shelf and wait for everyone else to DQ. ;)

I have cratered lately and decided to put the maximum bet on Notre Dame last night, to cause Duke to win. It worked.

[left_hook_lacey]

Anyone dipping their toe in the Panther pool tonight?

[curtis325]

Anyone dipping their toe in the Panther pool tonight?

They burned me before. I wouldn't take them at +30.

[left_hook_lacey]

They burned me before. I wouldn't take them at +30.

I was actually feeling pretty confident when I placed my bet on Pitt and the points. UNC still sans Pinson, Berry looking out of sync which means their whole offense looks out of sync. Roy throwing stools. Yeah, at Pitt, this is an easy call I thought. So I placed my max +500 bet, and realized it's in CH. Whoops.

The good news is, playing in the quiet dome isn't that big of an advantage against an opponent like Pitt. The silence will be deafening!! Unranked, from hundreds of miles away, on a chilly Tuesday night. Let's go PITT!!!!

[Troublemaker]

I was actually feeling pretty confident when I placed my bet on Pitt and the points. UNC still sans Pinson, Berry looking out of sync which means their whole offense looks out of sync. Roy throwing stools. Yeah, at Pitt, this is an easy call I thought. So I placed my max +500 bet, and realized it's in CH. Whoops.

The good news is, playing in the quiet dome isn't that big of an advantage against an opponent like Pitt. The silence will be deafening!! Unranked, from hundreds of miles away, on a chilly Tuesday night. Let's go PITT!!!!

Let's go Pitt, indeed! My prediction, though: You'll be relatively happy with the 1st half, but then saddened by the 2nd half.

Then again, don't listen to what I have to say. I'm DQ'ed.

[Bob Green]

Let's go Pitt, indeed!

I bet 100 units each on Pitt and the under. Carolina is 99.9% guaranteed to win this game but I'm betting they don't cover 19 points spread because the game is lower scoring than expected. The size of my bets is directly proportional to my confidence level. ;)

[left_hook_lacey]

I bet 100 units each on Pitt and the under. Carolina is 99.9% guaranteed to win this game but I'm betting they don't cover 19 points spread because the game is lower scoring than expected. The size of my bets is directly proportional to my confidence level. ;)

The over/under you say? Hmmmmmm. Vah-dy eentahrestink. Perhaps a 500 unit bet on the over/under to help cover my mistake of thinking this game was at Pitt? Hands wringing.

It's a sure thing!!!(I always yell this before making any bet, real or otherwise.)

[ChillinDuke]

Anyone dipping their toe in the Panther pool tonight?

No.

- Chillin

[Troublemaker]

Let's go Pitt, indeed! My prediction, though: You'll be relatively happy with the 1st half, but then saddened by the 2nd half.

I was right! ;)

[Bob Green]

I've climbed back into positive numbers by going +1200 the past two days.

[JasonEvans]

I've climbed back into positive numbers by going +1200 the past two days.

Mad props, Bob. I think positive numbers is a huge accomplishment and I have decided that is my goal for the season. It would also be cool to make the final top 10 leaderboard but if you can say you spent a season wagering on ACC college hoops and had a verifiable (vig included) positive outcome, I think that is impressive. Another short-term goal is to win the week for a second time, something no one has done thus far this season.

I'm currently at -210... but it is a long season still to go and if I manage to push back into positive digits, I won't stop just to say I made my goal.

-Jason "this has been waaaay more fun than I thought it would be and Cover.com has been fabulous for tracking the whole thing... I'd pay for this service if it was not free!" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Whoa.... just hit "submit" before sizing my bets. I just made 7 500-unit wagers. I usually make 200-400 wagers at the largest. Go big or go home, I guess.

[Fish80]

Whoa... just hit "submit" before sizing my bets. I just made 7 500-unit wagers. I usually make 200-400 wagers at the largest. Go big or go home, I guess.

Yeah, and there are no take backs, click and it's locked in.

[NYBri]

Whoa... just hit "submit" before sizing my bets. I just made 7 500-unit wagers. I usually make 200-400 wagers at the largest. Go big or go home, I guess.

Indeed. I have 5 500 bets on for tonight. It has entered my mind that since I am in the lead, to bet conservatively, but, WTF, go big and continue to go big and let the chips fall.

LONG season and we are not even half way through...since we are also including the ACCT...which is I believe where the winner will be chosen.

[Bob Green]

I have three bets totaling 500 tonight. Utilizing multiple small bets has been a reasonably successful strategy for me although I have won big a couple of times such as the 1000 I won on the Duke - Notre Dame game Monday night.

Although I won with the Under in the Carolina - Pitt game last night, my casual observation says the Over pops more often than the Under. This is only an observation as I haven't tracked games and crunched numbers so I'm standing by for some Stats Nerd to post a complicated formula I don't understand to prove I am completely wrong...of course I can always push back with the standard, "sample size is too small" caveat (as long as someone doesn't expect me to explain what that means).

Tonight I took:

Syracuse to beat N.C. State straight up (100)
The Over in Virginia - Virginia Tech game (200)
The Over in the Florida State - Miami game (200)

This contest is pure evil but it is also a lot of fun.

[Fish80]

I have three bets totaling 500 tonight. Utilizing multiple small bets has been a reasonably successful strategy for me although I have won big a couple of times such as the 1000 I won on the Duke - Notre Dame game Monday night.

Although I won with the Under in the Carolina - Pitt game last night, my casual observation says the Over pops more often than the Under. This is only an observation as I haven't tracked games and crunched numbers so I'm standing by for some Stats Nerd to post a complicated formula I don't understand to prove I am completely wrong...of course I can always push back with the standard, "sample size is too small" caveat (as long as someone doesn't expect me to explain what that means).

Tonight I took:

Syracuse to beat N.C. State straight up (100)
The Over in Virginia - Virginia Tech game (200)
The Over in the Florida State - Miami game (200)

This contest is pure evil but it is also a lot of fun.

Although it hasn't paid off yet, I like to look at the expert picks and find one that's skewed. Like 8 to 2 experts pick the over (hypothetical example).

[Bob Green]

..my casual observation says the Over pops more often than the Under.

I went 0-2 on Over picks last night. :mad:

[NYBri]

Big day on Saturday with 6 tough games.

[Fish80]

Big day on Saturday with 6 tough games.

Mr Brie, ever since I made that cheese joke you've been on a roll!

😁

[peterjswift]

I am still downright shocked that I have had even a modicum of success. I'm waiting for my inevitable freefall to happen, and have been making larger and more risky bets against the spread, and still went 3-0 last night.

I am grateful for this whole thing, because it has certainly made non-Duke ACC games much more exciting to watch. Last night's Syracuse game - already an exciting game - was ratcheted up significantly as my wife and I were discussing how we would spend our (fake) winnings or how we'd have to pay off our (fake) debt.

This has also helped me realize that, despite my success, there is absolutely no way I would ever wager real money on something like this. I have maintained a pattern of success, but I am still convinced it is luck, not skill, that has me anywhere near the top. If I'd done this last year, there's just as solid a chance I'd be out by now.

[Indoor66]

1st rule of betting: quit when you are ahead.

[jhmoss1812]

1st rule of betting: quit when you are ahead.

With real money, yes. With fake money, no.

[rsvman]

1st rule of betting: quit when you are ahead.

IMO, the first rule of betting is don't do it in the first place!;)

[DukeDevil]

Just put $20 on Duke to win it all this year here in Vegas. It's a lock folks. I felt almost bad taking their 8:1 odds.

[Fish80]

Just put $20 on Duke to win it all this year here in Vegas. It's a lock folks. I felt almost bad taking their 8:1 odds.

Very cool. I like those odds. Especially now that K is back for the Pitt game.

[JasonEvans]

Just put $20 on Duke to win it all this year here in Vegas. It's a lock folks. I felt almost bad taking their 8:1 odds.

I was in Vegas a week ago and Duke was 9-2, not 8-1. I would have put $100 on them at 8-1, but I could not find odds anywhere close to that. The "money" hasn't yet soured on Duke.

[Bob Green]

I went 0-2 on Over picks last night. :mad:

Just to illustrate how hardheaded I am, I took the Over three times today:

Virginia at Syracuse (128.5)
Pitt at Duke (157.5)
Miami at NCSU (147)

I bet 200 each time.

[Fish80]

I too took the overs.

[sagegrouse]

Just to illustrate how hardheaded I am, I took the Over three times today:

Virginia at Syracuse (128.5)
Pitt at Duke (157.5)
Miami at NCSU (147)

I bet 200 each time.

I did the same, and I also decided I wasn't touching Louisville-BC or GT-Wake with a ten-foot-pole.

[NYBri]

All in.

10 bets at 500 each. Gotta be in it to win it.

I could double my winnings or be in negative numbers or anywhere in between by the end of the day. It's called gambling. :cool:

[Indoor66]

All in.

10 bets at 500 each. Gotta be in it to win it.

I could double my winnings or be in negative numbers or anywhere in between by the end of the day. It's called gambling. :cool:

8 to 5 you are in between. :cool:

[Bob Green]

The 500 I bet on Virginia to cover the spread is looking good but more points are going to have to be scored in the 2nd half to hit the over.

[Bob Green]

I lost big, -700, on the Virginia game.

[curtis325]

I lost big, -700, on the Virginia game.

Missed the over by 1 point--those oddsmakers know their stuff. Loss of 500 simoleons.

[NYBri]

Went 6-3-1 today. All 500 unit bets. Should have known the 154.5 over in the Duke game was wishful thinking.

peterjswift is putting together a season at 65% win percentage.

STILL a ton of games left to play.

[Fish80]

Well done Mr. Brie and Mr. Swift. Impressive.

[peterjswift]

Well done Mr. Brie and Mr. Swift. Impressive.


I went 7-1 this week (Duke being my only loss).

That being said, it could have just as easily been 1-7. Lots of games left for me to regress. I have been awfully lucky this far.

The only "strategy" that I have followed pretty consistently is to put a huge value on home court advantage.

[Bob Green]

I had a bad day yesterday and am -1080 as a result. Yesterday was my second bad Saturday in a row. While I can't get back to positive numbers today, I can get close if I win my two wagers:

FSU (-7.0) over Clemson
Under 150

I bet 500 on both.

[Troublemaker]

We all know that the transitive property of hoops does not work. Ergo, when you see such a transitive corrolation, by definition it incorrectly predicts the outcome. So if we beat UF and UF beat UK, were screwed.

This will all be featured in my upcoming book, "Degenerate Run Amok: How to Bomb Out of the DBR Wager Contest"


With a Foreword by Big Dick Jackson suggesting 199 fine craft beers from around the world to pay off the winners. (devildeac will be mentioned in the Acknowledgments and will be receiving his consults fee)

Oh, man. I hadn't checked the standings closely in awhile until I saw these comments in the postgame thread. Dang, OPK, you're now slummin' it with me, richard, and BandAlum at the bottom.

You had been sooooo patient earlier in the contest that (1) I thought you'd still be something like 5-2 and +$900 in late Feb and (2) I was so confused because that's not how I imagined you would gamble. I guess you can only restrain the degenerate in you for so long.

[Troublemaker]

Went 6-3-1 today. All 500 unit bets. Should have known the 154.5 over in the Duke game was wishful thinking.

peterjswift is putting together a season at 65% win percentage.

STILL a ton of games left to play.

I continue to be impressed, Mr. NYBri. I remember you actually started out the contest 1-10 or something. Great money management and predictin' to work your way back to the top.

[devildeac]

Oh, man. I hadn't checked the standings closely in awhile until I saw these comments in the postgame thread. Dang, OPK, you're now slummin' it with me, richard, and BandAlum at the bottom.

You had been sooooo patient earlier in the contest that (1) I thought you'd still be something like 5-2 and +$900 in late Feb and (2) I was so confused because that's not how I imagined you would gamble. I guess you can only restrain the degenerate in you for so long.

"Quote Originally Posted by richardjackson199 View Post
With a Foreword by Big Dick Jackson suggesting 199 fine craft beers from around the world to pay off the winners. (devildeac will be mentioned in the Acknowledgments and will be receiving his consults fee)"

Wait, I thought your name was Richard...

:o:rolleyes:

Already considering my options...

:o

[OldPhiKap]

Oh, man. I hadn't checked the standings closely in awhile until I saw these comments in the postgame thread. Dang, OPK, you're now slummin' it with me, richard, and BandAlum at the bottom.

You had been sooooo patient earlier in the contest that (1) I thought you'd still be something like 5-2 and +$900 in late Feb and (2) I was so confused because that's not how I imagined you would gamble. I guess you can only restrain the degenerate in you for so long.

If I had a gun
For every ace I've drawn,
I could arm a town
The size of Abeline . . . .

[richardjackson199]

"Quote Originally Posted by richardjackson199 View Post
...
Wait, I thought your name was Richard...

:o:rolleyes:
...

:o

So did I, but my housemates at Duke had other ideas. I blame Nixon.

[devildeac]

So did I, but my housemates at Duke had other ideas. I blame Nixon.

I see you've got your story down Pat...

:o

[-jk]

I had a bad day yesterday and am -1080 as a result. Yesterday was my second bad Saturday in a row. While I can't get back to positive numbers today, I can get close if I win my two wagers:

FSU (-7.0) over Clemson
Under 150

I bet 500 on both.

1 out of two ain't bad...

-jk

[jhmoss1812]

Very average day yesterday (5-5 for -50) but great day today (4-0 for +1100).

[Troublemaker]

Degeneracy...

When you bet the national anthem Under 130 seconds:

http://i.imgur.com/9w9d2xr.png


This country boy better sing the anthem straight and get through the song quickly. Don't fricking hold those notes, boy.

[richardjackson199]

Degeneracy...

When you bet the national anthem Under 130 seconds:

http://i.imgur.com/9w9d2xr.png


This country boy better sing the anthem straight and get through the song quickly. Don't fricking hold those notes, boy.

Awesome! You just won some good money. A little over 120 seconds. You're living the dream.

[Troublemaker]

Awesome! You just won some good money. A little over 120 seconds. You're living the dream.

Thank you, Richard! I clocked it at 125 seconds, and man, did country boy hang onto that last note.

I'm embarrassed to say I might've cursed up a storm telling him to shut up.

[Hingeknocker]

I'm pretty thrilled I put in a 500 unit bet on UVA (-3.5) over Louisville last night, given this morning's news that two of Louisville's players are suspended for tonight. The line has moved all the way to 6.5 now. Feels nice to be ahead of the information for once!

[NYBri]

Well, I placed my bets before I knew about the suspensions...so...not looking good for my 1000 units...but I have faith in Petino and those remaining 7 scholarship players.

Let's Go Cards!!!!!!!

[peterjswift]

Well, I just foolishly clicked on a couple of bets based on the over/under. I thought I learned my lesson earlier this season, but yet here I am. Tonight's results could push me into fourth or fifth place.

Guess I really am a degenerate! Can't even follow my own self-imposed silly rules on a "for fun" betting pool!

Or worse - if I split or win on these bets, I might start back into the side bets more - or placing bets on Duke (which I promised myself early on I wouldn't do...and then I've done so unsuccessfully several times).

Mark the date and time - this is the beginning of the end. I'll be in the negatives soon.

[BandAlum83]

No one has been coming down to the basement with me, so I put some $ at risk today.

+200! I got the fever again. Watch out! I have something to work with now! -4530!

[NYBri]

Bump.

How many are going to put hard-earned units on the line by taking Duke and giving points tomorrow? Just checking in.

I swore off betting on Devil games except for the O/U, but this one might be the exception.

[NYBri]

I continue to be impressed, Mr. NYBri. I remember you actually started out the contest 1-10 or something. Great money management and predictin' to work your way back to the top.

Many thanks, TM.

You are correct. I started out 1-10-1, but have gotten WAY lucky. Still a long, long way to go and I don't plan on stepping off the betting gas. I'll keep playing to the end.

:cool:

GTHC!!!!!

[Bob Green]

I am 7-0 for +2300 the first three days of this week. :cool:

[NYBri]

I am 7-0 for +2300 the first three days of this week. :cool:

Bob Green on the move!!

[Fish80]

Bump.

How many are going to put hard-earned units on the line by taking Duke and giving points tomorrow? Just checking in.

I swore off betting on Devil games except for the O/U, but this one might be the exception.

All in on Duke tonight. Gave 2.5 points and took the over. My sacrifice to the basketball gods.

Go Devils!

[Bob Green]

I'm not betting anything tonight. This evening the contest will be placed on hold as I devote my full attention to The Game!

[Bob Green]

After two bad Saturdays in a row, I'll be exercising caution* today. N.C. State +9 is the only Against the Spread bet I am placing. Once the O/U numbers are posted, I'll probably place another bet or two.

*Exercising caution...taking NCSU :confused: me thinks I need my head examined.

[Doria]

After two bad Saturdays in a row, I'll be exercising caution* today. N.C. State +9 is the only Against the Spread bet I am placing. Once the O/U numbers are posted, I'll probably place another bet or two.

*Exercising caution...taking NCSU :confused: me thinks I need my head examined.

Probably, but degenerate hope springs eternal. ;)

[NYBri]

4-2 on a tough Saturday.

[BandAlum83]

So, I'm +660 in the last 5 days (4 days of betting).

+200
+200
+200
+60

Not too shabby. I'm still in the -4000 neighborhood (way on the other side of the tracks, but I am no longer the active contestant with the lowest balance (Hello krzyzewskiville)! I am in comfortable striking distance of the -3000s, so with a lot of hard work (read luck) maybe I can still get to poritive territory before this thing is done).

By the way, I have a new next door neighbor. (hello JasonEvans).

[BandAlum83]

4-2 on a tough Saturday.

We aren't sympathizing, Mr. +900 (4-2) on a tough Saturday. I can't even see you other than when you lapped me for the 15th time today.

[NYBri]

We aren't sympathizing, Mr. +900 (4-2) on a tough Saturday. I can't even see you other than when you lapped me for the 15th time today.

Wasn't asking for sympathy. I was happy to go 4-2 on a February Saturday where the picks were tough. Didn't even want to chime in on the Duke game. Too many variables to play against the spread or the o/u. Glad I stayed away. I was leaning toward Duke -12 and the over. Neither happened. :cool:

Dumbest pick for me was L'ville against the spread. Should have known that they have been having trouble scoring.

No-brainer was the under in the Wake/State game. 171 points is a ton of points.

[JasonEvans]

By the way, I have a new next door neighbor. (hello JasonEvans).

Yeah... my performance over the past week or so has been horrific. I could be out after tonight's Va-VaTech game... sigh.

This is really hard. I can't even count how many close misses I have had. I could probably move 10 total points over the past 2 weeks and put myself at +2000 instead of -4000. Those over/under numbers are shockingly close to right much of the time.

[JasonEvans]

I could be out after tonight's Va-VaTech game... sigh.

Nope! Survived by going 2-for-2 on that game. Only 3000 in the red now. Here I come ;)

[peterjswift]

+800 for me on the UVA vs VaTech craziness. Crazy good luck.

[Troublemaker]

Nope! Survived by going 2-for-2 on that game. Only 3000 in the red now. Here I come ;)

Question: at the end of regulation, were you rooting for VT to win (thus helping Duke in the standings), or were you rooting for OT because the total couldn't have gone over without it?

I think I know the answer. (Don't be embarrassed. That's why it's called degeneracy.)

[Fish80]

I wanted the OT, and then the VT win. 😊👍🏻

[BandAlum83]

Yeah... my performance over the past week or so has been horrific. I could be out after tonight's Va-VaTech game... sigh.

This is really hard. I can't even count how many close misses I have had. I could probably move 10 total points over the past 2 weeks and put myself at +2000 instead of -4000. Those over/under numbers are shockingly close to right much of the time.

Well that was a short stay. Thanks for the visit!

[NYBri]

Happily lose both bets of that VA/VT game in exchange for a real VA loss. :cool:

[NYBri]

After being burned (happily) by the OT last night, caught a break with it tonight. The guys who create the o/u are really good. :cool:

[du_bb1]

ditto--OT beat me w V tech, won Louisville

the betting gods giveth-----but mostly take away

[BandAlum83]

After a good last week or so, looks like I will be close to saying goodbye after tonight. 0-6 tonight for -990.

I will be able to start again with a 100 bet tomorrow.

Ugh. This is hard and why I never even contemplate betting on sports. Especially college.

[BandAlum83]

After a good last week or so, looks like I will be close to saying goodbye after tonight. 0-6 tonight for -990.

I will be able to start again with a 100 bet tomorrow.

Ugh. This is hard and why I never even contemplate betting on sports. Especially college.

I was wrong!! Woo hoo. -780, not -990. :)

[Fish80]

The O/U's are posted. Two seem low near 129. UNC v Wolves seems high at 168. I'm going down in flames.

[du_bb1]

Bump

that was a good night-the guys are continuing to improve--makes me look better....

[CameronBlue]

I was pretty confident that I was going to be in + territory last evening so I thought, hey I might get lucky, I can afford to fritter away 500 points taking State to cover. Mission accomplished. Thanks bunches State, you're a bookmaker's dream.

[Fish80]

I was pretty confident that I was going to be in + territory last evening so I thought, hey I might get lucky, I can afford to fritter away 500 points taking State to cover. Mission accomplished. Thanks bunches State, you're a bookmaker's dream.

Yeah, I feel ya pain, I too took State to cover. What was I thinking?? What was I drinking??

I blame the heels.

[JasonEvans]

Watch out, people... I got hot and went 5-for-6 last night (Duke-UVA over came up well short) and... look at that!!... I am leading the week. Still not back in positive numbers, but no longer in any danger of dropping out (for now). I find the folks who are up 5000+ to be really miraculous. Impressive effort. Ya'll need to hit up Vegas!

[devildeac]

I was pretty confident that I was going to be in + territory last evening so I thought, hey I might get lucky, I can afford to fritter away 500 points taking State to cover. Mission accomplished. Thanks bunches State, you're a bookmaker's dream.


Yeah, I feel ya pain, I too took State to cover. What was I thinking?? What was I drinking??

I blame the heels.

Y'all must have thought the line was missing a "0" from the unc -10 on the books. :rolleyes:;)

[CameronBlue]

Watch out, people... I got hot and went 5-for-6 last night (Duke-UVA over came up well short) and... look at that!!... I am leading the week. Still not back in positive numbers, but no longer in any danger of dropping out (for now). I find the folks who are up 5000+ to be really miraculous. Impressive effort. Ya'll need to hit up Vegas!

Not to disparage anyone participating but I'm most impressed by Peterjswift. A picking percentage of 66%? That's damned impressive. I don't do that well when I pick my nose.

[jhmoss1812]

Despite the UVA loss, it was a good night on the books for me. 6-0 for +1000. I knew I should have put +500 on Duke but figured that would be bad mojo for my Hoos. Turns out it didn't matter at all and I cost myself $400 lol.

[Fish80]

Irish v the Wolves? Spread is only 5.5.

[devildeac]

Irish v the Wolves? Spread is only 5.5.

Misplaced decimal point? :rolleyes:

[Fish80]

Misplaced decimal point? :rolleyes:

Idk, I've done very bad v the spread but this one is very tempting.

[Bob Green]

I took two road teams, Notre Dame and FSU, to beat the spread (-5.5) plus I took the over (137) in the Clemson at Miami game. Each wager is 500 units.

[BandAlum83]

I took two road teams, Notre Dame and FSU, to beat the spread (-5.5) plus I took the over (137) in the Clemson at Miami game. Each wager is 500 units.

Those were the day! When I could make multiple 500 unit wagers in a single day, :(

If ND doesn't come through for me today, Tony will be knocking on my door looking for me to make good on 5,000 units. I'm sure he'll have a baseball bat in his hand.

[Indoor66]

Those were the day! When I could make multiple 500 unit wagers in a single day, :(

If ND doesn't come through for me today, Tony will be knocking on my door looking for me to make good on 5,000 units. I'm sure he'll have a baseball bat in his hand.

Just be on the lookout for Guido. If he is there you have no hope.

[CameronBlue]

Just be on the lookout for Guido. If he is there you have no hope.

State is taking applications for their witness protection program. They'll give you a new identity and put you to work coaching their Men's basketball team where you'll disappear from public view forever.

[Indoor66]

State is taking applications for their witness protection program. They'll give you a new identity and put you to work coaching their Men's basketball team where you'll disappear from public view forever.

unCheat has the same offer out for Administrators in the AFAM Department.

[BandAlum83]

Just be on the lookout for Guido. If he is there you have no hope.

I originally typed Guido in my message, but was trying to be a little more culturally sensitive ;)

[BandAlum83]

State is taking applications for their witness protection program. They'll give you a new identity and put you to work coaching their Men's basketball team where you'll disappear from public view forever.

Time to create a new DBR identity and start fresh on the wager contest?

[CameronBlue]

Time to create a new DBR identity and start fresh on the wager contest?

Or trade one lost cause for another...

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Well, I finally figured out a strategy to stop hemorrhaging fake money on fake bets. Interestingly, it is the same strategy I use to not lose real money betting...

[Fish80]

Somehow, covers thinks I bet on Villanova. Either I hit the wrong button or ghosts in the machine.

I guess I get sanctioned, penalized, ridiculed and flogged?

[JasonEvans]

First of all, I got busy this morning so I didn't get a chance to bet on the early games which means I missed the absolute giveaway on Notre Dame and NC State. That's some of the easiest money of the entire season!

But, the real reason I came here was to point out that I am seriously considering buying two tickets to Vegas and taking NYBri with me. What he's doing is ridiculous! 4 and 0 so far today and he's up something like $15,000 at this point. Absolutely insane!

Jason " we are all playing for second place. Or, in my case, just trying to somehow squeak above the profit and loss line" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Somehow, covers thinks I bet on Villanova. Either I hit the wrong button or ghosts in the machine.

I guess I get sanctioned, penalized, ridiculed and flogged?

This appears to of been an innocent mistake so the only penalty I will exact is that if Villanova wins your bet you must somehow identify another bet that you will make to counteract that profit. Please announce it either in a personal message to me or on the board so we can all be aware of which bet you were attempting to intentionally lose and keep track of whether that loss actually happened.

[BandAlum83]

Well I'M safe for now. Neither Tony nor Guido will be visiting me today.

Phew!

[BandAlum83]

I don't know if it's a trap, or a suckers bet, but the UVA / UNC line moved to UVA +7. I am parlaying my new found ND units for a max bet on UVA.

[Bob Green]

FSU goes to the Oakland Zoo and lays an egg costing me 500 units. Now I have to seriously consider making a wager in the UVa - UNC game in an attempt to get back close to even on the day.

[Fish80]

This appears to of been an innocent mistake so the only penalty I will exact is that if Villanova wins your bet you must somehow identify another bet that you will make to counteract that profit. Please announce it either in a personal message to me or on the board so we can all be aware of which bet you were attempting to intentionally lose and keep track of whether that loss actually happened.

There is one game tomorrow, Syracuse at GTech. I'll try to lose 500 drachmas on that one. Need to see the line first and then I'll post my choice for the loss.

[peterjswift]

I thought I had a lock on second place until today. Ouch! This is what I get for trying to make some bigger bets.

[Fish80]

I thought I had a lock on second place until today. Ouch! This is what I get for trying to make some bigger bets.

You're still solidly in second. I'm going down another 1,100 clams. I took 500 on the over on UNC v UVA. Not looking too good. And I have to deliberately lose another 500 since I accidentally bet and won on a Villanova game.

[Bob Green]

I went 2-2 yesterday and finished the day in 11th place which is the same as when the day started. Of course, I have 100 less units now. My daughter advised me to bet the under in the UVa at UNC game but I didn't listen to her opting to only bet on UNC to cover the spread. I won 500 but could have won 1000. Betting on UNC and bragging about winning...I told you all this contest is pure evil.

[NYBri]

First of all, I got busy this morning so I didn't get a chance to bet on the early games which means I missed the absolute giveaway on Notre Dame and NC State. That's some of the easiest money of the entire season!

But, the real reason I came here was to point out that I am seriously considering buying two tickets to Vegas and taking NYBri with me. What he's doing is ridiculous! 4 and 0 so far today and he's up something like $15,000 at this point. Absolutely insane!

Jason " we are all playing for second place. Or, in my case, just trying to somehow squeak above the profit and loss line" Evans

ND was the easy play of the day yesterday. Totally screwed up the Cheats game with the over. Knew it when I hit submit.

I know if I went to Vegas with real $, my record would be completely different. Easier to make 500 unit wagers than it is with cash.

The bubble is bound to burst and with folks like Hingeknocker coming on, this ain't over. Jason, I'm assuming we are playing through the ACCT?

[Fish80]

Trying to lose 500 dothrakian drachma to atone for my mistake. So I just bet 500 on the under on Syracuse at Georgia Tech.

Trying to lose. Harder than winning?

[JasonEvans]

Trying to lose 500 dothrakian drachma to atone for my mistake. So I just bet 500 on the under on Syracuse at Georgia Tech.

Trying to lose. Harder than winning?

You should have just let RichardJackson or Troublemaker make the bet for you ;)

--Jason "Troublemaker being out of the contest is really hard to understand. He hit on 47% of his bets... and he still lost more than 5-grand" Evans

[Skitzle]

Wow I'm a board regular, and I can't believe I only opened this thread for the first time today. Clearly I immediately signed up. This is the first year this is on covers.com right? I feel like last year was all pen and paper...

Go GT!

[Troublemaker]

You should have just let RichardJackson or Troublemaker make the bet for you ;)

--Jason "Troublemaker being out of the contest is really hard to understand. He hit on 47% of his bets... and he still lost more than 5-grand" Evans

I went with small wagers during my strong start to the season and I went with big wagers during a wretched cold streak. And I didn't slow down the pace when approaching the -$5K line.

The DQ line does add an interesting twist to the competition for sure. It can (obviously) punish degenerates who max bet all the time. If you go on a cold streak, you may not last long enough to turn it around.

[Fish80]

Mother of pearl! I tried to lose 500 and they friggin tied to O/u at 136.

[NYBri]

Wow I'm a board regular, and I can't believe I only opened this thread for the first time today. Clearly I immediately signed up. This is the first year this is on covers.com right? I feel like last year was all pen and paper...

Go GT!

Yes. Welcome!

[JasonEvans]

Mother of pearl! I tried to lose 500 and they friggin tied to O/u at 136.

Try again... just post here with your losing bet so we can keep track of it. You know, if you win, this could get really interesting and funny as you try to shed more and more money. Ha!

[Fish80]

Try again... just post here with your losing bet so we can keep track of it. You know, if you win, this could get really interesting and funny as you try to shed more and more money. Ha!

I can see this happening. I try to lose again and again ... 😳🙈🙉🙊

[JasonEvans]

I can see this happening. I try to lose again and again ... 😳🙈🙉🙊

You are allowed to try to lose on a non-ACC bet.

[Fish80]

Trying to lose again. Bet 500 samolians on West Virginia to cover the spread, -15.0 versus Texas. Texas is not very good, terrible on the road, but they've been generally staying close.

[Fish80]

Trying to lose again. Bet 500 samolians on West Virginia to cover the spread, -15.0 versus Texas. Texas is not very good, terrible on the road, but they've been generally staying close.

Inconceivable!

Trying to lose and tied again, the dreaded push. I did manage to lose two other bets I was trying to win, which dropped me to 4th place.

I'll look for another one to try to lose, but I may need to call in a consultant. Troublemaker?





"I do not think that word means what you think it means."

[Troublemaker]

Inconceivable!

Trying to lose and tied again, the dreaded push. I did manage to lose two other bets I was trying to win, which dropped me to 4th place.

I'll look for another one to try to lose, but I may need to call in a consultant. Troublemaker?


Hmmm, if no DQ, I would've tried to be contrarian tonight and bet that NCSU would show up against GaTech. So NCSU +4.5 should be your bet.

[devildeac]

Inconceivable!

Trying to lose and tied again, the dreaded push. I did manage to lose two other bets I was trying to win, which dropped me to 4th place.

I'll look for another one to try to lose, but I may need to call in a consultant. Troublemaker?





"I do not think that word means what you think it means."

richardjackson199 still might be hanging around DBR if you desire consultation with a real loser. :rolleyes:

(I know that doesn't sound quite right but he's a buddy/colleague of mine so I'm sure he'll understand. :o;))

[Fish80]

Trying once again to lose on purpose . . .

I looked for the highest O/U, and took the over. Bet 500 clams on the over, AUB at LSU, 172.0.

[Fish80]

Hmmm, if no DQ, I would've tried to be contrarian tonight and bet that NCSU would show up against GaTech. So NCSU +4.5 should be your bet.

Thanks for the advice. I got confused about whether I should take NCSU +4.5 thinking I would lose, or switch it and take GaTech to cover. If I'm trying to lose, and you think NCSU +4.5 is good, then I should switch?

After all that, I decided to go out of conference so I could still legitimately lose in conference.

[Troublemaker]

Thanks for the advice. I got confused about whether I should take NCSU +4.5 thinking I would lose, or switch it and take GaTech to cover. If I'm trying to lose, and you think NCSU +4.5 is good, then I should switch?

After all that, I decided to go out of conference so I could still legitimately lose in conference.

Well, you "hired me" as a Bad Pick Consultant, so you were supposed to take NCSU +4.5 because that's what I would've taken tonight if I hadn't been DQ'ed.

[Hingeknocker]

This has been really fun (easy to say coming off my current hot streak), but more importantly I think because of this contest I'm actually following the ACC as a whole even more closely than I usually do. Kudos to Jason for putting this together!

I'm not sure I'll be able to catch NYBri for 1st place, mainly because I've given up completely on making O/U bets. I didn't make very many of them, but after missing on a few I started to mentally track where I thought games would end up, and I haven't found any kind of feel for those bets. I'll stick to my tried and true method of picking spreads, but I'm fooling myself if I expect to maintain my 63% mark on ATS picks.

As for tonight, I can't for the life of me figure out the GT/NCSU line. I got it at GT -5.0, but now see that the line has moved to -3.5. This feels like free money with the Jackets at home...what am I missing?

[NYBri]

This has been really fun (easy to say coming off my current hot streak), but more importantly I think because of this contest I'm actually following the ACC as a whole even more closely than I usually do. Kudos to Jason for putting this together!

I'm not sure I'll be able to catch NYBri for 1st place, mainly because I've given up completely on making O/U bets. I didn't make very many of them, but after missing on a few I started to mentally track where I thought games would end up, and I haven't found any kind of feel for those bets. I'll stick to my tried and true method of picking spreads, but I'm fooling myself if I expect to maintain my 63% mark on ATS picks.

As for tonight, I can't for the life of me figure out the GT/NCSU line. I got it at GT -5.0, but now see that the line has moved to -3.5. This feels like free money with the Jackets at home...what am I missing?

Odd, I sometimes find the O/U a better wager, although I'm doing about the same as the ATS wagers.

Indeed this has been fun. I was thinking that the way the conference is this year with so many good, CONSISTENT teams, it's a bit easier to play ATS. I find when a team is all over the map and is giving or getting over 12 points, it's total crap shoot. However, when a game is close for two consistent teams, both teams stay engaged and the home court, team strengths, etc. come into play more.

For instance, last night with Miami and UVA...UVA is consistently having all sorts of trouble scoring, but they were giving up 8.5 points to a pretty consistent team that has a good offense. I know they were at home, but Miami's strengths with their coach certainly was a good bet at +8.5. I felt comfortable with that wager. I don't bet on BC games because no matter how many points they get, who the hell knows who is going to show up. Same thing with Duke. I hate wagering on their games ATS because I never know which team is going to show. It's getting better recently, but about 2 weeks ago, it was insane.

Pittsburgh is the hardest because of their incredible inconsistency.

[Bob Green]

I bet 500 units on each home team tonight: VT even and GT -3.

[sagegrouse]

I bet 500 units on each home team tonight: VT even and GT -3.

Georgia Tech was -1.5 earlier today, but I dithered and got -3 also.

[Troublemaker]

As for tonight, I can't for the life of me figure out the GT/NCSU line. I got it at GT -5.0, but now see that the line has moved to -3.5. This feels like free money with the Jackets at home...what am I missing?
Even though NCSU would've been my pick, I have no clue why. It would've been a case of blindly tailing the sharps, as NCSU was clearly the biggest sharp play on the board tonight based on the suspicious line movement. 80% of the public bets were on GaTech (as one might expect), so only huge sharp money could've dropped the line.

http://i.imgur.com/wdm1z8g.png

I have no clue what the sharps know about NCSU tonight. If I did, I'd be a sharp.

[NYBri]

Looks like I'm going down 2200 units tonight. My worst day yet,

[Fish80]

I tried to lose again. And couldn't. I bet 500 on the over 172, Auburn at LSU. Final score, 98 to 75, 173. Damn. Now I have 1000 of I'll gotten gains.

On my other bets, trying to win, I lost 2 out of 3.

Now I have to find two bets to purposely lose.

Interestingly, had I taken troublemakers advice, I would have won on NCSU. Total weirdness.

[richardjackson199]

I tried to lose again. And couldn't. I bet 500 on the over 172, Auburn at LSU. Final score, 98 to 75, 173. Damn. Now I have 1000 of I'll gotten gains.

On my other bets, trying to win, I lost 2 out of 3.

Now I have to find two bets to purposely lose.

Interestingly, had I taken troublemakers advice, I would have won on NCSU. Total weirdness.

It sounds like you need to consult a professional. I would have certainly taken Georgia Tech at home over State ATS. Hang in there, I'll help you lose 1000 in no time flat! :cool:

[Fish80]

It sounds like you need to consult a professional. I would have certainly taken Georgia Tech at home over State ATS. Hang in there, I'll help you lose 1000 in no time flat! :cool:

How about a little head to head, richardjackson199 v troublemaker, I'll bet 500 for each of you, see who can lose first. Only condition, Duke is mine.

Just instruct me how to lose.

[Troublemaker]

How about a little head to head, richardjackson199 v troublemaker, I'll bet 500 for each of you, see who can lose first. Only condition, Duke is mine.

Just instruct me how to lose.

Okay. I see you've hired a competing firm to consult as well, but I will not be offended and soldier on.

Tomorrow I like Pitt. Doesn't matter the line, although it'll be around +6.

[BandAlum83]

Okay. I see you've hired a competing firm to consult as well, but I will not be offended and soldier on.

Tomorrow I like Pitt. Doesn't matter the line, although it'll be around +6.

As a loser also, I would like to offer my services. Call my 800 line for the lock loss of the day!

[Bob Green]

I went 1-1 last night dropping 50 units but I moved up in the standings to 8th place.

[du_bb1]

Anyone who is 500 or above on these picks--AND NYBri---wow -my hat is off to all of you.

When we started -sounded like would be fun and add interest to some non Duke games-and
it has been all that--also very humbling-
I am not throwing in my towel yet--

[Fish80]

Okay. I see you've hired a competing firm to consult as well, but I will not be offended and soldier on.

Tomorrow I like Pitt. Doesn't matter the line, although it'll be around +6.

Got you in for Pitt +5, 500 peso.

[Bob Green]

I bet a 1000 units tonight. Five bets for 200 units each:

1. Duke to cover the spread (-4)
2. Duke/Syracuse over (149.5)
3. Pitt/Wake over (158)
4. Louisville (+5.5) to beat UNC
5. Louisville/UNC over (154.5)

[Fish80]

I bet a 1000 units tonight. Five bets for 200 units each:

1. Duke to cover the spread (-4)
2. Duke/Syracuse over (149.5)
3. Pitt/Wake over (158)
4. Louisville (+5.5) to beat UNC
5. Louisville/UNC over (154.5)

Bob, I'm really hoping you got #1 and #4 right.

[richardjackson199]

Bob, I'm really hoping you got #1 and #4 right.

I'd definitely take Louisville and the Points over UNC. (Sorry if that's a jinx!) I think Pitino coaching circles around Roy, Louisville's D, Carolina's lack of D, and Louisville's moxy in a huge game will prevail over home court advantage. Plus you get 5.5 points. I am Joe Q Bettor, so take my advice verbatim and you should lose the bet.

Go Duke and Go Cards!

[Green Wave Dukie]

I went 1-1 last night dropping 50 units but I moved up in the standings to 8th place.

Yep, now you and I are blazing a trail for this week's Weekly Standings. You at -50 in first, and me trailing close behind at -80 in 2nd. Glad this is for fun. I'm only losing my pride.

[JasonEvans]

Wow! I cannot believe how much the Carolina Louisville line has moved today. I think it was as low as UNC by 4 this morning. It is now at UNC by 8.5.

There is a lot, a lot, a lot of money pouring in on the Tar Heels, that's for sure.

[Fish80]

I'd definitely take Louisville and the Points over UNC. (Sorry if that's a jinx!) I think Pitino coaching circles around Roy, Louisville's D, Carolina's lack of D, and Louisville's moxy in a huge game will prevail over home court advantage. Plus you get 5.5 points. I am Joe Q Bettor, so take my advice verbatim and you should lose the bet.

Go Duke and Go Cards!

Just got you in for 500 smackers on Louisville. Think it was +6.

[Fish80]

I'd definitely take Louisville and the Points over UNC. (Sorry if that's a jinx!) I think Pitino coaching circles around Roy, Louisville's D, Carolina's lack of D, and Louisville's moxy in a huge game will prevail over home court advantage. Plus you get 5.5 points. I am Joe Q Bettor, so take my advice verbatim and you should lose the bet.

Go Duke and Go Cards!

Thanks, richardjackson199, Louisville didn't cover the spread, we managed to lose that one and give back 550 clams.


Okay. I see you've hired a competing firm to consult as well, but I will not be offended and soldier on.

Tomorrow I like Pitt. Doesn't matter the line, although it'll be around +6.

Troublemaker, Pitt covered the spread, so unfortunately we won 500 clams. Care to try again? I'll have to try to lose that 500 plus the 500 we were trying to lose.

Bottom line, by my calculations, I still have 1000 of ill gotten gains. I'll post again with my picks for losers.

Losing ain't easy folks.

[Troublemaker]

Thanks, richardjackson199, Louisville didn't cover the spread, we managed to lose that one and give back 550 clams.

Troublemaker, Pitt covered the spread, so unfortunately we won 500 clams. Care to try again? I'll have to try to lose that 500 plus the 500 we were trying to lose.

Bottom line, by my calculations, I still have 1000 of ill gotten gains. I'll post again with my picks for losers.

Losing ain't easy folks.

It looks like my consultancy hasn't solved all your problems yet. My firm may need more money.

Tonight, I would've taken UCLA if I were in it and we were allowed to bet out of conference.

[Fish80]

It looks like my consultancy hasn't solved all your problems yet. My firm may need more money.

Tonight, I would've taken UCLA if I were in it and we were allowed to bet out of conference.

I put 500 on UCLA -13.5 and another 500 on the Over 175.5, hoping to lose both. Go Bobby Hurley! Go Sun Devils!

Thanks for your consultancy. For your fee, you can keep the VIG. :cool:

[-jk]

I put 500 on UCLA -13.5 and another 500 on the Over 175.5, hoping to lose both. Go Bobby Hurley! Go Sun Devils!

Thanks for your consultancy. For your fee, you can keep the VIG. :cool:

This contest is for ACC matchups only...

-jk