What the ACC stats show

[Olympic Fan]

Since the recent Doris Burke-inspired "controversy" over Grayson Allen's foul call Monday night, the "Duke gets all the calls" uproar has flared up again on rival boards.

It's a frustrating thing, especially since no amount of evidence will sway the haters. I think it goes back to the 2001 Final Four, when Billy Packer made such a big deal over the fact that Duke made more free throws that season that their opponents attempted ... even though Duke's opponent in the finals -- Arizona -- had an even greater FT discrepancy (but Packer never mentioned that).

I was thinking about that a few minutes ago as I checked out the revised ACC stats (after Tuesday night's two games). Who is shooting the most free throws per game this season? If you guessed Duke, you'd be way off. The order is:

1. NC State 27.7 FTs a game (the Wolfpack boards are one of the leading sites touting the Duke-gets-all-the-calls conspiracy ... and pushing the idea that the refs are out to get the Pack).
2. UNC 26.6
3. Pitt 24.5
4. FSU 24.5 (a few hundreths less than Pitt)
5. Duke 24.3
6. VPI 23.7
7. Louisville 22.8
8. Georgia Tech 22.6
9. Wake Forest 22.5
10. Clemson 22.3
11. Syracuse 21.5
12. Boston College 21.0
13. Miami 20.6
14. Notre Dame 17.4
15. Virginia 14.3

Now, I know that FT differential is a better gauge than FTs attempted (I don't have easy access to those numbers at the moment). Tempo has a lot to do with FT totals ... you'd expect UNC, running the fastest tempo in the ACC (but only 43rd nationally) to get a lot of FTs ... and for Virginia, running THE slowest tempo in all of college basketball, to shoot less.

Still, I find it interesting that NC State's FT total is so high ... and Virginia's is as low as it is. Most ACC teams are in a 3-4 FT range that's close enough to change the order after a single round of games.

FWIW: A year ago, Virginia Tech led the ACC by a wide margin in both FTs attempted and FT differential.

One other stat note: With his 18 rebound performance Monday night, Amile Jefferson moved into the ACC rebound lead at 11.1 a game -- just ahead of Wake's John Collins (10.8). Jefferson also leads the ACC in field goal percentage (64.8) and ranks second in blocked shots (1.92 -- still well behind leader Ben Lammers at 4.1). He's 23rd in scoring.

[DukieTiger]

Since the recent Doris Burke-inspired "controversy" over Grayson Allen's foul call Monday night, the "Duke gets all the calls" uproar has flared up again on rival boards.

It's a frustrating thing, especially since no amount of evidence will sway the haters. I think it goes back to the 2001 Final Four, when Billy Packer made such a big deal over the fact that Duke made more free throws that season that their opponents attempted ... even though Duke's opponent in the finals -- Arizona -- had an even greater FT discrepancy (but Packer never mentioned that).

I was thinking about that a few minutes ago as I checked out the revised ACC stats (after Tuesday night's two games). Who is shooting the most free throws per game this season? If you guessed Duke, you'd be way off. The order is:

1. NC State 27.7 FTs a game (the Wolfpack boards are one of the leading sites touting the Duke-gets-all-the-calls conspiracy ... and pushing the idea that the refs are out to get the Pack).
2. UNC 26.6
3. Pitt 24.5
4. FSU 24.5 (a few hundreths less than Pitt)
5. Duke 24.3
6. VPI 23.7
7. Louisville 22.8
8. Georgia Tech 22.6
9. Wake Forest 22.5
10. Clemson 22.3
11. Syracuse 21.5
12. Boston College 21.0
13. Miami 20.6
14. Notre Dame 17.4
15. Virginia 14.3

Now, I know that FT differential is a better gauge than FTs attempted (I don't have easy access to those numbers at the moment). Tempo has a lot to do with FT totals ... you'd expect UNC, running the fastest tempo in the ACC (but only 43rd nationally) to get a lot of FTs ... and for Virginia, running THE slowest tempo in all of college basketball, to shoot less.

Still, I find it interesting that NC State's FT total is so high ... and Virginia's is as low as it is. Most ACC teams are in a 3-4 FT range that's close enough to change the order after a single round of games.

State runs pretty much the same tempo as UNC, so it's not too surprising that they're as high as they are. If you look at the ratio of FTA to FGA though, the difference stands out even more.

NCST is in the top 10 nationally at the rate at which they attempt FTs - 48 fts for every 100 FGA. UVA is near the bottom nationally - 28 fts for every 100 FGA. So in my mind, the difference is even more significant than what is shown by the pure FT numbers, in spite of the fact that the raw numbers don't account for pace.

FWIW, State and UVA give up FTA at about the same rate- both are well above average nationally in keeping opponents off the FT line at around 28 FTA for every 100 FGA. So from a ratio perspective, UVA is basically even while NCST about takes 20 more FT than their opponents, for every 100 shots they attempt.

[DukieTiger]

FWIW, here are the differentials in FT Rate among ACC teams. This is Offensive FT Rate -minus- Defensive FT Rate; or put another way, it's the difference between ACC teams and their opponents in how many free throws they attempt per 100 field goal attempts... So it is a tempo-free statistic. If I get a chance later on, I'll pull the national ratings for offensive and defensive FTR in, but for now, here's the ranking:

NCST: +19
Pitt: +17.3
Virginia Tech: +17
Clemson: +16.7
Duke: +15
Miami: +13.3
Cheaters: +13.1
Georgia Tech: +11.4
Wake Forest: +10.5
Syracuse: +9.1
Notre Dame: +2.5
FSU: +0.5
Louisville: +0.1
Boston College: -0.5
Virginia: -0.5

(Source: KenPom.com)

I think the only one I'm really surprised by is how low Notre Dame is; although Clemson and Pitt having such positive differentials is impressive for teams that play such, um, physical defense.

[UrinalCake]

Someone wrote an article many years ago on DBR comparing free throw disparity to conference win/loss record, on the hypothesis that better teams simply earn more free throws because they are at an advantage over their opponent, who will have to foul when they get beat. It might have been Al Featherston who wrote this; my apologies for not giving credit where it is due. Anyways, the article showed that statistically there was a pretty strong correlation between win/loss record and free throw disparity. The only exception was the CHeats during their Gut/D'oh years. They were a middle of the pack team yet continued to enjoy a free throw disparity on par with the top teams.

Playing style has a lot to do with it of course. Teams that drive and attack the basket are going to draw more fouls than teams that jack up threes. Teams that play pack line or zone defense are going to commit less fouls than teams that play pressing man to man. Which I think is one of the criticisms people have of Duke - there is a perception that all we do is shoot threes and handcheck everyone on D. Certainly there have been years that we shoot a lot of threes, but this year is not one of them and I think we attack the basket as much as anyone with our spread/motion offense.

[ChillinDuke]

Since the recent Doris Burke-inspired "controversy" over Grayson Allen's foul call Monday night, the "Duke gets all the calls" uproar has flared up again on rival boards.

It's a frustrating thing, especially since no amount of evidence will sway the haters. I think it goes back to the 2001 Final Four, when Billy Packer made such a big deal over the fact that Duke made more free throws that season that their opponents attempted ... even though Duke's opponent in the finals -- Arizona -- had an even greater FT discrepancy (but Packer never mentioned that).

I was thinking about that a few minutes ago as I checked out the revised ACC stats (after Tuesday night's two games). Who is shooting the most free throws per game this season? If you guessed Duke, you'd be way off. The order is:

1. NC State 27.7 FTs a game (the Wolfpack boards are one of the leading sites touting the Duke-gets-all-the-calls conspiracy ... and pushing the idea that the refs are out to get the Pack).
2. UNC 26.6
3. Pitt 24.5
4. FSU 24.5 (a few hundreths less than Pitt)
5. Duke 24.3
6. VPI 23.7
7. Louisville 22.8
8. Georgia Tech 22.6
9. Wake Forest 22.5
10. Clemson 22.3
11. Syracuse 21.5
12. Boston College 21.0
13. Miami 20.6
14. Notre Dame 17.4
15. Virginia 14.3

Now, I know that FT differential is a better gauge than FTs attempted (I don't have easy access to those numbers at the moment). Tempo has a lot to do with FT totals ... you'd expect UNC, running the fastest tempo in the ACC (but only 43rd nationally) to get a lot of FTs ... and for Virginia, running THE slowest tempo in all of college basketball, to shoot less.

Still, I find it interesting that NC State's FT total is so high ... and Virginia's is as low as it is. Most ACC teams are in a 3-4 FT range that's close enough to change the order after a single round of games.

FWIW: A year ago, Virginia Tech led the ACC by a wide margin in both FTs attempted and FT differential.

One other stat note: With his 18 rebound performance Monday night, Amile Jefferson moved into the ACC rebound lead at 11.1 a game -- just ahead of Wake's John Collins (10.8). Jefferson also leads the ACC in field goal percentage (64.8) and ranks second in blocked shots (1.92 -- still well behind leader Ben Lammers at 4.1). He's 23rd in scoring.

My only question is who the heck is Ben Lammers?

- Chillin

[Spanarkel]

My only question is who the heck is Ben Lammers?

- Chillin


Founding and so far sole member of Phi Slama Lammers, a GT basketball frat.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Founding and so far sole member of Phi Slama Lammers, a GT basketball frat.

Phi Slamma Llamas?

[uh_no]

Since the recent Doris Burke-inspired "controversy" over Grayson Allen's foul call Monday night, the "Duke gets all the calls" uproar has flared up again on rival boards.

It's a frustrating thing, especially since no amount of evidence will sway the haters. I think it goes back to the 2001 Final Four, when Billy Packer made such a big deal over the fact that Duke made more free throws that season that their opponents attempted ... even though Duke's opponent in the finals -- Arizona -- had an even greater FT discrepancy (but Packer never mentioned that).

I was thinking about that a few minutes ago as I checked out the revised ACC stats (after Tuesday night's two games). Who is shooting the most free throws per game this season? If you guessed Duke, you'd be way off. The order is:

1. NC State 27.7 FTs a game (the Wolfpack boards are one of the leading sites touting the Duke-gets-all-the-calls conspiracy ... and pushing the idea that the refs are out to get the Pack).
2. UNC 26.6
3. Pitt 24.5
4. FSU 24.5 (a few hundreths less than Pitt)
5. Duke 24.3
6. VPI 23.7
7. Louisville 22.8
8. Georgia Tech 22.6
9. Wake Forest 22.5
10. Clemson 22.3
11. Syracuse 21.5
12. Boston College 21.0
13. Miami 20.6
14. Notre Dame 17.4
15. Virginia 14.3

Now, I know that FT differential is a better gauge than FTs attempted (I don't have easy access to those numbers at the moment). Tempo has a lot to do with FT totals ... you'd expect UNC, running the fastest tempo in the ACC (but only 43rd nationally) to get a lot of FTs ... and for Virginia, running THE slowest tempo in all of college basketball, to shoot less.

Still, I find it interesting that NC State's FT total is so high ... and Virginia's is as low as it is. Most ACC teams are in a 3-4 FT range that's close enough to change the order after a single round of games.

FWIW: A year ago, Virginia Tech led the ACC by a wide margin in both FTs attempted and FT differential.

One other stat note: With his 18 rebound performance Monday night, Amile Jefferson moved into the ACC rebound lead at 11.1 a game -- just ahead of Wake's John Collins (10.8). Jefferson also leads the ACC in field goal percentage (64.8) and ranks second in blocked shots (1.92 -- still well behind leader Ben Lammers at 4.1). He's 23rd in scoring.

Here are the numbers adjusted for tempo (in FTA/poss):

NCSU .38
UNC .36
Pitt .36
Duke .35
FSU .33
VT .33
GT .33
UL .32
Clemson .32
Wake .31
Cuse .31
Miami .30
BC .29
ND .25
UVA .24

No major changes...I thought UVA would get more of a bump than they did.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

FT numbers really say nothing about officials bias. There are so many reasons a team might put the other team on the line- overmatched, out of position, stopping the clock, poor switches on defense, playing from behind...

Referee bias could be a factor, but it is absurd to draw any conclusions from the raw data of "how many FTs a team shoots."

[Kedsy]

FT numbers really say nothing about officials bias. There are so many reasons a team might put the other team on the line- overmatched, out of position, stopping the clock, poor switches on defense, playing from behind...

Referee bias could be a factor, but it is absurd to draw any conclusions from the raw data of "how many FTs a team shoots."

I agree totally with this. It's a pet peeve of mine. The idea that many people seem to have -- that the two teams in a game should get called for approximately the same number of fouls or shoot approximately the same number of free throws -- is patently absurd. Waaaaay before referee bias is the much more simple, sensible, and obvious explanation that some teams foul more than others. This is especially true for a team that suffers a talent disparity against its opponent (and can't really guard the better opponent without fouling). And also (obviously) if a team is losing at the end of a game and is fouling (semi-)intentionally.

[Wander]

Here are the numbers adjusted for tempo (in FTA/poss):

I'm not sure free throw attempts should be adjusted for pace like other stats. If you're playing slow due to a guy standing far away from the basket dribbling the ball for 20 seconds with everyone else standing still, sure. But if you're playing at a slow pace, but still moving the ball around and making cuts and such, but you're just very patient with taking a shot at the end of the possession, you can still draw fouls during that entire time even though you're ending up with a low number of possessions.

[BD80]

Phi Slamma Llamas?

There shall be NO llama bashing on these boards!

Call it a pet peeve ...

[Olympic Fan]

My only question is who the heck is Ben Lammers?

- Chillin


Is this serious?

Ben Lammers is a 6-10, 227-pound junior at Georgia Tech. He was a solid reserve for an NIT team last season, averaging 3.0 points and 4.0 rebounds. He blocked 47 shots in 533 minutes of play.

This year, with Tech having to rebuild after losing four starters (plus another frontcourt sub), Lammers is Tech's starting center and best player. He leads them in scoring (14.7 ppg) and rebounding (10.7 rpg -- third in the ACC). He's fourth in the ACC in FG percentage (.581) and leads the league by a wide margin in blocked shots (4.1). Last I checked, he was leading the nation in blocked shots.

He's a guy you ought to know -- he may be a second or third team All-ACC guy this season.

[UrinalCake]

Here's the article I referenced earlier. It was in fact written by the great Al Featherston. An excellent read, it talks about the Maryland game in the 2001 final four and Bill Packard starting much of the "Duke gets all the calls" rhetoric, then goes into a breakdown of free throw discrepancies within the ACC. Note that this was published in 2006, before a lot of the advanced analytics existed.

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2006/2/5/4986842/featherston-on-duke-and-officiating

[uh_no]

I'm not sure free throw attempts should be adjusted for pace like other stats. If you're playing slow due to a guy standing far away from the basket dribbling the ball for 20 seconds with everyone else standing still, sure. But if you're playing at a slow pace, but still moving the ball around and making cuts and such, but you're just very patient with taking a shot at the end of the possession, you can still draw fouls during that entire time even though you're ending up with a low number of possessions.

I would guess the relatively large majority of fouls occur on shot or rebound attempts.

[Reilly]

There shall be NO llama bashing on these boards!

Call it a pet peeve ...

Why all the llama references on DBR lately? They're not reindeer.

[devildeac]

Why all the llama references on DBR lately? They're not reindeer.

Someone has photos of OPK. Shorn and unshorn. Damning stuff. ;)

[Indoor66]

Why all the llama references on DBR lately? They're not reindeer.

But never forget, only a Camel spits better than a Llama.

[devildeac]

But never forget, only a Camel spits better than a Llama.

Well, that certainly puts us over the hump.

[Indoor66]

Well, that certainly puts us over the hump.

Also never forget that across the road, a little ways southwest, unCheat still cheats.

[Bob Green]

...Bill Packard...

Billy Packer.

[Indoor66]

Packard was probably correct. The quit making the in 1956 - about the last year he was sentient. 😎

[MarkD83]

Billy Packer.
Or is it
Billy Alpaca

When does the game start so we can stop these llama puns