This Week in the ACC: 12/19-12/25

[pfrduke]

Let's take a look at this week's action:

Monday
[23]Florida State hosts [190]Samford (2:00, ACCN)
[1]Duke hosts [128]Tennessee State (7:00, ESPN2)
[33]Syracuse hosts [92]Eastern Michigan (7:00, ESPNU)
[22]Notre Dame hosts [294]Colgate (7:00, ACCN)

Tuesday
[117]Georgia Tech hosts [59]Georgia (7:00, ESPNU)
[36]Virginia Tech hosts [300]Charleston Southern (9:00, ESPNU)

Wednesday
[1]Duke vs. [143]Elon in Greensboro (6:00, ESPN2)
[209]Boston College hosts [183]Fairfield (6:00, CBSSN)
[8]Louisville hosts [4]Kentucky (7:00, ESPN)
[58]Pittsburgh hosts [164]Omaha (7:00, ACCN)
[33]Syracuse hosts [134]St. John's (7:00, ACCN)
[6]North Carolina hosts [86]Northern Iowa (8:00, ESPN2)
[27]Clemson at [32]South Carolina (9:00, ESPNU)
[3]Virginia at [43]California (10:00, ESPN2)

Thursday
[25]Miami hosts [122]George Washington (7:00, ACCN)
[59]NC State hosts [331]McNeese State (7:00, ACCN)
[117]Georgia Tech hosts [224]Wofford (7:30, ACCN)
[53]Wake Forest hosts [95]LSU (9:00, ESPNU)

Friday
[209]Boston College hosts [50]Providence (4:00, ESPNU)

Saturday and Sunday are dark - Merry Christmas!

ACC Non-Conference Record: 128-32
ACC Record vs. Power 6*: 28-23
America East: 3-1
American Athletic: 3-3
Atlantic Sun: 2-0
Atlantic Ten: 6-2
Big 12: 1-6
Big East: 2-6
Big Sky: 1-0
Big South: 8-0
B1G Ten: 16-6
Big West: 3-0
Colonial: 4-0
Conference USA: 6-0
Horizon: 1-0
Ivy: 4-1
MAAC: 5-0
MAC: 2-1
MEAC: 7-0
MVC: 4-0
MWC: 2-0
Northeast: 5-0
Ohio Valley: 4-0
Pac 12: 2-0
Patriot: 6-0
SEC: 7-5
Southern: 8-0
Southland: 2-1
Summit: 1-0
Sun Belt: 3-0
SWAC: 4-0
WAC: 4-0
Non-D1: 1-0

*Big XII, B1G, Big East, Pac-12, SEC

[OldPhiKap]

These are always a great way to start the week, and a helpful resource as the week progresses. Thanks for putting these together so diligently!

[devildeac]

Go UNI! Or should it be go NIU!

??

No matter, it's always GTHc, GTH.

[English]

Go UNI! Or should it be go NIU!

??

No matter, it's always GTHc, GTH.

UNI Panthers. The same UNI that beat overall #1 seed Kansas in the second round of the NCAAT in 2010*...which opened the door for a bunch of scrappy, alarmingly unathletic hoopsters to cruise to the natty.


*The Farokhmanesh game

[Olympic Fan]

UNI Panthers. The same UNI that beat overall #1 seed Kansas in the second round of the NCAAT in 2010*...which opened the door for a bunch of scrappy, alarmingly unathletic hoopsters to cruise to the natty.


*The Farokhmanesh game


Northern Iowa also beat No. 1 UNC in Cedar Falls last year, 71-67.

Unfortunately, UNI has just two starters back off a 23-13 NCAA team (they beat Texas in the first round; then blew a 12-point lead in just under two minutes to lose to Texas A&M in the second round).

Not a bad team, but probably not good enough to win in Chapel Hill.

[English]

...Not a bad team, but probably not good enough to win in Chapel Hill.

Here's hoping for a major vile blue letdown after the no-defense sprint in Vegas.

[Troublemaker]

Wednesday
[1]Duke vs. [143]Elon in Greensboro (6:00, ESPN2)
[209]Boston College hosts [183]Fairfield (6:00, CBSSN)
[8]Louisville hosts [4]Kentucky (7:00, ESPN)
[58]Pittsburgh hosts [164]Omaha (7:00, ACCN)
[33]Syracuse hosts [134]St. John's (7:00, ACCN)
[6]North Carolina hosts [86]Northern Iowa (8:00, ESPN2)
[27]Clemson at [32]South Carolina (9:00, ESPNU)
[3]Virginia at [43]California (10:00, ESPN2)


I'm going to try to watch most of those highlighted games. I wish Lville / UK didn't overlap with Duke / Elon for an hour.

Clemson is a small underdog and can notch a road win over their rival and a likely NCAA tournament team. Clemson has had a good non-conf (much better than previous seasons), BUT they might not have a win over an NCAA tourney team yet. This would be great for them if they can pull it off.

And UVA goes to Cal as a small road favorite (3.5 points and trending down). Cal played a great game in Charlottesville last season and the Hoos barely escaped with a win. My first instinct is that UVA will win easier this time around, but the sharps seem to be pounding Cal.

[tbyers11]

I'm going to try to watch most of those highlighted games. I wish Lville / UK didn't overlap with Duke / Elon for an hour.

Clemson is a small underdog and can notch a road win over their rival and a likely NCAA tournament team. Clemson has had a good non-conf (much better than previous seasons), BUT they might not have a win over an NCAA tourney team yet. This would be great for them if they can pull it off.

And UVA goes to Cal as a small road favorite (3.5 points and trending down). Cal played a great game in Charlottesville last season and the Hoos barely escaped with a win. My first instinct is that UVA will win easier this time around, but the sharps seem to be pounding Cal.

I too would like to watch as much of the highlighted games as possible.

Clemson is now at nearly full strength. Shelton Mitchell was hurt for the 2 biggest games (and losses) against Oklahoma and Xavier. This will also be the 2nd game for Elijah Thomas, the mid-year PF transfer from Texas A&M. A road win against a decent South Carolina team would really help come NCAA time

Cal lost a lot from last year and hasn't looked that great so far so my instincts align with yours that UVA should win, but then I saw that Cal's 2 best players Ivan Rabb and Jabari Bird had missed several games due to injury. Should be a very good road test for UVA.

Also thank you for pointing out that the Duke game tonight is at 6pm. I had assumed 7pm.

[lotusland]

Louisville defense making UK look a lot less explosive than they did against the cheaters.

[Olympic Fan]

Louisville on the verge of a great win over the 'Cats ... but the real shocker of the night was in Syracuse.

A lousy St. John's team just beat 'Cuse by 33 on its home floor. The Orange are now 7-5 in pre-ACC play and have lost to every half-decent team they've faced (and St. John's, 5-7 coming in, is varely half-decent).

[Doria]

Oh, well... After everything with the Elon game, it's nice to get some joy with a little KY pain. I hope that doesn't make me a terrible person, but if so, I'll just have to take the hit to my rep. It'd be awesome if the panthers could help me worsen my personality further.

[lotusland]

UK has some holes but Duke needs some toughness down low to match up. I don't think we can stay in front of their guards and Amile can't handle Bam. Hopefully Giles and Bolden are good to go if we meet them in March or April. On the positive side Duke is a much better shooting team and they don't really have an answer for Tatum.

[Troublemaker]

Oh, well... After everything with the Elon game, it's nice to get some joy with a little KY pain. I hope that doesn't make me a terrible person, but if so, I'll just have to take the hit to my rep. It'd be awesome if the panthers could help me worsen my personality further.

Of course not! I enjoyed some schadenfreude as well.

Huge games from Snider and Deng. That will give them much needed confidence going forward.


Louisville on the verge of a great win over the 'Cats ... but the real shocker of the night was in Syracuse.

A lousy St. John's team just beat 'Cuse by 33 on its home floor. The Orange are now 7-5 in pre-ACC play and have lost to every half-decent team they've faced (and St. John's, 5-7 coming in, is varely half-decent).

Holy smokes. Where'd you have the Orange in the preseason, Oly? 13th in the ACC? That might be a great call.

[FerryFor50]

In other news, stay classy Carolina.

https://youtu.be/-Mw6FfrpJow

[Olympic Fan]

Holy smokes. Where'd you have the Orange in the preseason, Oly? 13th in the ACC? That might be a great call.

Thanks for remembering ... I still don't see what made others think this would be a good 'Cuse team.

In other news, very good win by Clemson at No. 22 South Carolina. Along with their road win at Alabama and their home with over Georgia, they're probably the No. 2 team in the SEC.

Seriously, they have built a nice NCAA resume. Now if they can match last year's ACC record (10-8 with wins over Duke, Louisville and Syracuse) they'll almost certainly get a bid.

But wouldn't it be ironic if they stumble in the league -- so that they miss the field in 2016 because of their pre-ACC struggles, then miss in 2017 because of in-league struggles?

[-jk]

Thanks for remembering ... I still don't see what made others think this would be a good 'Cuse team.

In other news, very good win by Clemson at No. 22 South Carolina. Along with their road win at Alabama and their home with over Georgia, they're probably the No. 2 team in the SEC.

Seriously, they have built a nice NCAA resume. Now if they can match last year's ACC record (10-8 with wins over Duke, Louisville and Syracuse) they'll almost certainly get a bid.

But wouldn't it be ironic if they stumble in the league -- so that they miss the field in 2016 because of their pre-ACC struggles, then miss in 2017 because of in-league struggles?

Let's hope they don't match last year with a win over Duke. The rest of 'em? Meh...

-jk

[JasonEvans]

Virginia wraps up a very good night in the ACC with a true road win at Cal. I think I saw that it was Cal's first home loss in more than a year. Cal is pretty good, probably top 4 or 5 in the Pac-whatever. Any road win at a power conference school is a good win.

-Jason "right now, I'd say 9 ACC teams have a really good shot at the NCAA tourney... I think Pitt and Syracuse will need to do really well in the conference for us to find a 10th team" Evans

[Troublemaker]

Virginia wraps up a very good night in the ACC with a true road win at Cal. I think I saw that it was Cal's first home loss in more than a year. Cal is pretty good, probably top 4 or 5 in the Pac-whatever. Any road win at a power conference school is a good win.

-Jason "right now, I'd say 9 ACC teams have a really good shot at the NCAA tourney... I think Pitt and Syracuse will need to do really well in the conference for us to find a 10th team" Evans

Kyle Guy with 17 points for UVA in the big road win. He's yet another freshman that's playing really well this season. Advanced stats-wise, Guy is off the charts. He somehow has >20% usage AND a 148 offensive rating, which leads the country. Usually players with insane offensive ratings have lower usage. (That said, I'm sure that stat will return to Earth some as the season progresses.)

Jason, what is the 6th ACC team you're leaving out of the tourney right now? I assume 5 are BC, GaTech, Cuse, Pitt, and Wake?

[FerryFor50]

Kyle Guy with 17 points for UVA in the big road win. He's yet another freshman that's playing really well this season. Advanced stats-wise, Guy is off the charts. He somehow has >20% usage AND a 148 offensive rating, which leads the country. Usually players with insane offensive ratings have lower usage. (That said, I'm sure that stat will return to Earth some as the season progresses.)

Jason, what is the 6th ACC team you're leaving out of the tourney right now? I assume 5 are BC, GaTech, Cuse, Pitt, and Wake?

And he has a sweet man bun.

6977

[Olympic Fan]

Jason, what is the 6th ACC team you're leaving out of the tourney right now? I assume 5 are BC, GaTech, Cuse, Pitt, and Wake?

That was my question too.

I guess Miami is the 10th ACC team, although NC State is the 13th ACC in in Kenpom -- and I think both are in good shape. Pitt hasn't looked that good, but by they are 10-2. They have the worst loss from among the ACC's NCAA hopefuls -- a neutral court loss to No. 209 (in Kenpom) Duquesne.

Right now, five ACC teams have one loss and six more have two ...that's a good foundation. I think there are 12 ACC teams that have put themselves in position to make a tournament run after the pre-ACC season -- I include 10-2 Pitt, 9-2 NC State and even 8-3 Wake (although I don't think Pitt or Wake is good enough to do it). Any of those teams going 10-8 or even 9-9 in the ACC this year is a strong contender to get a bid.

For Syracuse, it will take a lot more than 9-9 in ACC play this year. BC and Georgia Tech are hopeless.

We'll see what happens when teams start beating up on each other. But I would say the formula for 10-to-13 ACC teams:

1 -- Beat up on BC and Georgia Tech and what other bottom feeders there turn out to be (Syracuse? Wake? Pitt?)

2 -- Steal a couple of wins over the ACC's elite teams -- Duke, UNC, Louisville and Virginia.

3 -- Play .500 ball with everybody else.

That formula will get almost everybody (except Syracuse, BC and Georgia Tech) into the NCAA Tournament.

PS I have to correct something. Earlier in the thread, Troublemaker gave me credit for picking Syracuse 13th in the preseason poll and I patted myself on the back. Looking at my preseason picks, I actually had Syracuse at 12 (ahead of 13 Wake, 14 Georgia Tech and 15 BC). It looks like I might have overestimated the Orange.

[Wahoo2000]

Kyle Guy with 17 points for UVA in the big road win. He's yet another freshman that's playing really well this season. Advanced stats-wise, Guy is off the charts. He somehow has >20% usage AND a 148 offensive rating, which leads the country. Usually players with insane offensive ratings have lower usage. (That said, I'm sure that stat will return to Earth some as the season progresses.)

It's an even bigger testament to how awesome he is offensively that a guy with Bennett’s mindset keeps throwing him out there for big minutes and in big situations despite his defensive limitations right now (compared to some of our veteran wings). Bennett has NEVER been a guy to sacrifice D for scoring, but Guy has been too good to keep off the floor. It'll be interesting to see how much weight his frame will hold - it's pretty small, but with the trend towards freedom of movement strength (or lack thereof) isn't quite the advantage/disadvantage it once was.

[DukieTiger]

That was my question too.

I guess Miami is the 10th ACC team, although NC State is the 13th ACC in in Kenpom -- and I think both are in good shape. Pitt hasn't looked that good, but by they are 10-2. They have the worst loss from among the ACC's NCAA hopefuls -- a neutral court loss to No. 209 (in Kenpom) Duquesne.

Right now, five ACC teams have one loss and six more have two ...that's a good foundation. I think there are 12 ACC teams that have put themselves in position to make a tournament run after the pre-ACC season -- I include 10-2 Pitt, 9-2 NC State and even 8-3 Wake (although I don't think Pitt or Wake is good enough to do it). Any of those teams going 10-8 or even 9-9 in the ACC this year is a strong contender to get a bid.

For Syracuse, it will take a lot more than 9-9 in ACC play this year. BC and Georgia Tech are hopeless.

We'll see what happens when teams start beating up on each other. But I would say the formula for 10-to-13 ACC teams:

1 -- Beat up on BC and Georgia Tech and what other bottom feeders there turn out to be (Syracuse? Wake? Pitt?)

2 -- Steal a couple of wins over the ACC's elite teams -- Duke, UNC, Louisville and Virginia.

3 -- Play .500 ball with everybody else.

That formula will get almost everybody (except Syracuse, BC and Georgia Tech) into the NCAA Tournament.

PS I have to correct something. Earlier in the thread, Troublemaker gave me credit for picking Syracuse 13th in the preseason poll and I patted myself on the back. Looking at my preseason picks, I actually had Syracuse at 12 (ahead of 13 Wake, 14 Georgia Tech and 15 BC). It looks like I might have overestimated the Orange.


Watch out for Wake - their statistical profile looks better than State, Pitt, Cuse and they are up to 42 in KenPom. Their ranking is largely inflated by hanging with Xavier, stomping LSU and beating up on a bunch of lesser teams; but KenPom is supposed to account for SOS and give a rating based on relative team strength. I could see them plummeting once ACC play starts, but there's the possibility that they pick off some of the upper middle class of the conference.

[Olympic Fan]

Watch out for Wake - their statistical profile looks better than State, Pitt, Cuse and they are up to 42 in KenPom. Their ranking is largely inflated by hanging with Xavier, stomping LSU and beating up on a bunch of lesser teams; but KenPom is supposed to account for SOS and give a rating based on relative team strength. I could see them plummeting once ACC play starts, but there's the possibility that they pick off some of the upper middle class of the conference.

I understand that Wake has had a solid pre-ACC season. But I still have two caveats about the Deacs:

One is last year ... Wake had an even BETTER pre-ACC season (with wins over Indiana, UCLA and LSU). Then they went 2-16 in ACC play. I know that's no guarantee of a similar collapse, but it still gives me pause.

Two is the eye test. I've seen Wake play two complete games and parts of four others. I still don't trust them. Collins is very talented, but he continues to get in foul trouble. Plus, Manning seems to want to limit his time even when fouls are not a factor ... not sure why -- but he appears to have a curious lack of confidence in Collins. Crawford is very talented, but still makes way too many bonehead decisions. There is nobody else on the team that I think has exceptional talent.

They may be better than Syracuse. And I think they will be dangerous at home -- to even the good teams. If they come close to sweeping their home court and can steal one or two on the road, they could be an NCAA team.

But I'm skeptical.

[DukieInBrasil]

BC withe upset win over the Proidence! Well, i don't know if it's an upset, but Providence had a better record at any rate. Plus it guarantees that every ACC team goes into the conference schedule at .500 or above.
Wake has put together a respectable OOC record too.
So even the bottom of the ACC is not as bad as some had feared. Certainly not as good as some had hoped, but we'll take what we can get...