The Undefeated 2016-2017

[Skitzle]

I always like having a thread about this stuff, but I don't have enough time to do the analysis, so I'm cheating courtesy of CBS.

As of today there are 6 teams that are undefeated. Here is a summary of all 6 plus South Carolina (which was the 7th until a loss to Seton Hall Last Week)
CBS Undefeated Article (http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2016-12-11/college-basketball-seven-undefeated-teams-remain-after-one)

In current AP order
Villanova
UCLA
Baylor
Gonzaga
Creighton
USC (Southern Cal)

Dec Games Left, Kenpom Rating in Italic "Toughest Games" in Bold
Villanova: 12/22 vs. American University 313, 12/29 vs. DePaul 178, 12/31 @Creighton 24
UCLA: 12/22 vs. W Michigan 214, 12/29 @Oregon 21, 12/31 @Oregon St 27
Baylor: 12/18 vs. John Brown N/A, 12/21 vs. Texas Southern 182, 12/30 @Oklahoma 51
Gonzaga: 12/19 @Tennessee83, 12/22 vs. South Dakota 202, 12/31 vs. Pepperdine 233
Creighton: 12/21 @Arizona State 102, 12/29 vs. Seton Hall 45, 12/31 vs. Villanova 2
USC: 12/20 vs. Cornell 261, 12/23 @Missouri State 134, 12/29 @Oregon St 27, 12/31 @Oregon 21

Notes based on the above.

This number will definitely be 5 by the end of the month courtesy of Villanova @Creighton on 12/31.

Easiest Paths:
Gonzaga, Baylor

Tough Path Good Enough Team
Villanova, UCLA

Toughest Path:
Creighton

Toss Up but I'd bet on a loss
USC

Feel free to track progress here.

[Neals384]

Thanks for getting this started, Skitzle. Oregon State has had a tough start to the season and is currently #208, not 27.

[sagegrouse]

Five of the six teams are from west of the Mississippi, although Creighton belongs to the Big East.

[OldPhiKap]

Villanova is still the reigning Bill Walton champion too.

[Olympic Fan]

Always a fun thread ... the problem is when someone starts it too early.

But I think Skitzle picked the right moment.

Of the six undefeated, I think two are totally phony -- by that I mean good teams that have coasted through fairly weak schedules.

Neither Creighton nor Southern Cal is a serious threat to remain unbeaten. Interesting that Pomeroy projects seven losses for both teams.

He's also projecting seven losses for Baylor, which I think is unfair. The Bears have beaten more good teams (Louisville, Oregon, Xavier, Michigan State) than anybody in college basketball. I agree that it's highly unlikely they go very deep in the Big 12 unbeaten (they have road games with Oklahoma, Kansas State and West Virginia coming up by mid-January and at Kansas by the end of the month), but I think they are a legit top team.

That leaves Nova (projected 27-4 by KenPom), Gonzaga (projected at 27-3) and UCLA (projected 28-3). I doubt any of them make it to February with a perfect record, but of the six unbeatens, Gonzaga has by far the best chance. They have two games with No. 15 (in KenPom) St, Mary's and two with No. 61 BYU -- but no other game against a top 100 opponent. In fact, just three more against top 200 opponents (No. 159 Portland is the best).

Somebody check me out ... I see just two games matching unbeatens left -- Creighton plays Nova on Dec. 31; UCLA plays Southern Cal on Jan. 25 (they meet again Feb. 18, but by then, at least one will have a loss).

[Indoor66]

Villanova is still the reigning Bill Walton champion too.

Will someone run through the riff on selection/attainment of being Bill Walton champion, please.

[OldPhiKap]

Will someone run through the riff on selection/attainment of being Bill Walton champion, please.

Per Bill Walton, whomever beats last year's champ is the new champ. And then whomever beats that team is the reigning champ. Et cetera.

[Indoor66]

Thanks, OPK

[OldPhiKap]

Thanks, OPK

Happy to help, obviously do not vouch for the logic. Bill thinks differently than your average bruin.

[Skitzle]

Thanks for getting this started, Skitzle. Oregon State has had a tough start to the season and is currently #208, not 27.

Yes.. This!

[uh_no]

He's also projecting seven losses for Baylor, which I think is unfair. The Bears have beaten more good teams (Louisville, Oregon, Xavier, Michigan State) than anybody in college basketball. I agree that it's highly unlikely they go very deep in the Big 12 unbeaten (they have road games with Oklahoma, Kansas State and West Virginia coming up by mid-January and at Kansas by the end of the month), but I think they are a legit top team.

I think there are probably a few reasons for that:
1) KP probably had baylor ranked lower preseason. Lets be fair, they've surprised a lot of people....lets be fair, they weren't on ANYONE's radar.....not that KP takes what any individual thinks into account, but you'd expect his preseason rankings to be at least in the same ballpartk as human polls as they use a lot of the same criteria.
2) KP only projects them as underdogs in 3 of their games. That's pretty fair, but they also have 6 other games in toss-up territory (<60% win). Even if they went 50% in those games, they're still looking at 6 losses. In all, the big12 is (at least projected to be) very strong overall. Lets not forget that with a double round robin, you have to play all those tough teams TWICE, you don't get to pile up GT and BC....you get UWV and Kansas a second time, so the number of losses you'd expect is somewhere between a game or two higher than you'd expect for an equivalent team in the ACC.

There's one other factor, that's just their expected number of losses....there are 3 teams way up there in the big12...you'd expect some to do better than their number, and some to do worse. I wouldn't be surprised if baylor is the team to do better and UWV to do worse....not that they all can't do better....but I'd bet the standard deviation on that number at this point is pretty high.

[Neals384]

UCLA gone from the list. My Ducks playing better now; look for USC to fall from the unbeatens this weekend.

[Skitzle]

UCLA gone from the list. My Ducks playing better now; look for USC to fall from the unbeatens this weekend.

Yup and then creighton villaniva later this week. So wr could potentially drop down to 3 by the end of the week.

On a different note the original schedule of games I made out is all based on Istanbul time which is why todays games look like they are on the 29th.. my game days are all off by 1

[Neals384]

USC gone.

[Olympic Fan]

USC gone.

And Baylor takes care of Oklahoma to stay unbeaten.

We do have Creighton-Villanova today, so one will lose.

After today, we'll be down to three unbeaten:

the Creighton-Villanova winner

Baylor

Gonzaga

[Olympic Fan]

So 'Nova wins 80-70 at Creighton. They will face another test Wednesday at Butler.

Nova, Zaga and Baylor last unbeaten left.

[duke4ever19]

Villanova goes down.

Baylor is currently in a dogfight at home vs. Iowa State.

[Olympic Fan]

Villanova goes down.

Baylor is currently in a dogfight at home vs. Iowa State.

Baylor survives 65-63 ...

Baylor and Gonzaga are the last two unbeatens.

I think the Zags will be the last unbeaten standing -- Baylor will probably beat Okie State at home Saturday, but they will be tested Tuesday at West Virginia.

The Zags don't have an even remotely possible loss until they meet St. Mary's in Jan. 14 -- but that one is at Gonzaga. The only real threat left is a Feb. 11 trip to St. Mary's.

[ricks68]

Do those Baylor uniforms actually glow in the dark?

ricks

[Indoor66]

Do those Baylor uniforms actually glow in the dark?

ricks

Probably not but the shoes have to be bent to release the chemicals. :D:cool:

[ricks68]

Probably not but the shoes have to be bent to release the chemicals. :D:cool:

Well done.

ricks

[Tripping William]

I think the Zags will be the last unbeaten standing -- Baylor will probably beat Okie State at home Saturday, but they will be tested Tuesday at West Virginia.

The Zags don't have an even remotely possible loss until they meet St. Mary's in Jan. 14 -- but that one is at Gonzaga. The only real threat left is a Feb. 11 trip to St. Mary's.

Not sure I'd wager on BYU (does anyone?), but I wouldn't sleep on the Zags' trip to Provo on Feb. 2nd.