MBB: Duke 84, Florida 74 Post-Game Thread

[JBDuke]

Put your post-game thoughts here.

[SlapTheFloor]

Tatum definitely adds a new dimension to this team. Jefferson and Kennard continue to shine. Good win!

[OldPhiKap]

Amile. Wow.

Luke. Wow.

Tatum. Wow.

Grayson, unselfish game.

Wow.

[FerryFor50]

Nice win against a physical defensive team that was hitting an ungodly amount of 3s.

Some lapses in halfcourt D, especially on pick and roll, but the good news is that Jayson Tatum has officially arrived. Awesome offense, defense and rebounding.

Kennard was a beast, as was Amile.

Allen was passing GREAT. Shooting, he's still forcing the issue.

Bolden sat the entire 2nd half; I think it was because of Amile's play, but also because Bolden looked lethargic out there and picked up a couple quick, lazy fouls.

Jackson was quiet for the most part. Matt was an adventure on offense, but played his usual good D.

The team seemed to finally figure out the offense around the end of the 1st half and never let UF get too close.

All in all, a nice, comfy win.

[Brockt10]

This team is unbelievably talented. We realistically should have won by 15-20 but Florida, to their credit, hit threes they normally do not. We still have two lottery picks sitting on the bench. What an amazing time to be a Duke fan.

[SCMatt33]

Great to see Tatum looking in rhythm tonight. I'm sure there's a lot of things to say about the game, but I want to call out two really heady plays by Jayson that impressed me for a guy playing his second game. First, he had a fast break opportunity, but it appeared Florida had a defender on the opposite side with a decent angle. In his second game, in the garden, a lot of guys go for a monster posterizing dunk, risking a block and a collision. Instead, he simply used the rim to ward off the defender and took the easy lay in. Second, a few plays later, coming down with a rebound, he had the presence of mind to know he was off balance and going down and dribbled while falling in order to avoid the travel and get a pass off. Really impressive stuff to me to add the little thing to those NBA turnaround jumpers.

[Ballboy1998]

First, the few "bad" things for me -- Grayson still looks way below 100% and is struggling to score it (though he finished with 8 assists). Hopefully he can get some more rest over this next stretch. Matt has been struggling more than usual on the offensive end the last couple games, though he certainly still contributes in a lot of areas. Would have liked to see Bolden for a few more minutes.

On to the good -- wow Amile and wow Luke. One of Amile's best offensive performances, and 15 boards to go along with it. Luke was feeling it tonight.

And, last but certainly not least, what a coming out party for Tatum. He really showed a lot on both ends of the floor. He had some beautiful offense late, and I really liked the way he attacked the glass on both ends of the floor. I just can't wait to see more of him out there.

[DukeDevil]

Could change the title of this threat to Luke/Amile/Jayson 75, Florida 74.

[CDu]

Your table is ready Mr. Tatum. Yes, Kennard and Jefferson led the show, but the most exciting part of the game for me was Tatum's arrival to the big stage. He soared for rebounds in traffic. He toyed with defenders in the post. He forced turnovers. He scored in transition. The kid is a stud, and brings an element to this team that was missing.

Back to Kennard and Jefferson. Wow. Kennard continues to amaze with his mid-range game. When his 3 is falling, it just isn't fair. And Jefferson's crafty post game, his tenacious rebounding, and even blocking shots. He was huge.

Tough night for Allen, though he did ice the game with a nice runner over their big.

Also a tough night for Jones. He was for the most part steady, but had two glaringly bad miscues. He will have better days. Defense travels.

Not a lot else to be said. It was largely a 3-man show. But what a show!

[DukieInBrasil]

yay! good win over a solid team.
Tatum really showed me something tonight! I thought it would take him a while to get back to game speed, particularly after the Maine game. If it weren't for 2 other stellar performances in this game, his stats would usually garner MOTM nods.
Amile was just a stud. We went to him time and again and Florida had no answer. Amile acted like a brute on the boards.
Luke was also a stud, but craftier, less brutish.
Grayson needs to sit for a while, he's obviously not himself and has not improved at all lately.
I think the 2nd half showed that Jackson will lose his starting spot to Tatum. Although if Grayson is shut down for a while, Jackson will probably start in his place.

[Faison1]

Just watched Luke's interview with Scott Van Pelt. Luke sounds like he's been coached on interviews for years already.

Color me impressed with everything about him so far.

[subzero02]

If Luke stays 4 years, he will have multiple banners hanging in Cameron including his jersey. I am not worried about our offense; we have unselfish players. Defense and defensive rebounding are key. Bolden needs to improve his conditioning and as good as Matt Jones is; he makes some of the worst plays possible at times.

[duke4ever19]

Amile. Wow.

Luke. Wow.

Tatum. Wow.

Grayson, unselfish game.

Wow.

WE ARE SPOILED :D :cool:

And to think there is another guy on our bench that people have compared to Chris Webber.

[uh_no]

wow.

i knew we'd be good when we were at full strength. I didn't know we'd be so fantastic when we just got tatum back.

seems tatum will largely replace chase's minutes. What's so amazing is with amile/matt/frank/luke/grayson/tatum on the floor, we have five guys who can handle, five guys who can shoot reasonably, two rebounding monsters.....and this at tatum's second game back.

how do you defend it? seriously? I'm curious?

grayson's having issues putting the ball in the basket. it's clear he doesn't have the ups he can. on the one fantastic give and go at which he missed a layup...healthy grayson throws that down so hard you hear it in jersey city. great to see him finally getting assists off some of his great passes. still a few clunker passes....but in any case, i don't think we have to worry about a distributor should we need one.

amile keeps this up, and his number will be in the rafters.

[CoachJ10]

What a tantalizing glimpse tonight. Tatum looks like he will be as good as advertised. Adding him to the pick and roll game with Grayson and Luke adds a huge new dimension to our offense.

Have we seen a better mid range jump shooter than Luke? It is a part of the game that is eschewed by many modern players, but man it is money when he shoots them.

And it wouldnt be a game for me without commenting on the poor level of collegiate officiating we have. The number of travels that Florida got away with was absurd. Even an NBA official would have been embarrassed. Mike Eades should be in middle school gyms...not MSG.

[jipops]

yay! good win over a solid team.
Tatum really showed me something tonight! I thought it would take him a while to get back to game speed, particularly after the Maine game. If it weren't for 2 other stellar performances in this game, his stats would usually garner MOTM nods.
Amile was just a stud. We went to him time and again and Florida had no answer. Amile acted like a brute on the boards.
Luke was also a stud, but craftier, less brutish.
Grayson needs to sit for a while, he's obviously not himself and has not improved at all lately.
I think the 2nd half showed that Jackson will lose his starting spot to Tatum. Although if Grayson is shut down for a while, Jackson will probably start in his place.

Grayson had 8 assists tonight. Having him sit isn't going to do much good for this team. G will be fine.

Interesting that K pretty much went with 6 guys once again. Though I think we'll gradually see more of Bolden as the season goes on. Once we get Giles back that will give us the 8-man rotation (fingers crossed all healthy).

[CDu]

If Luke stays 4 years, he will have multiple banners hanging in Cameron including his jersey. I am not worried about our offense; we have unselfish players. Defense and defensive rebounding are key. Bolden needs to improve his conditioning and as good as Matt Jones is; he makes some of the worst plays possible at times.

I don't think it was a conditioning issue tonight with Bolden. He just wasn't in the right spots and fouled twice quickly, and Jefferson was BALLING. So Coach K stuck with the hot hand.

For all the hand-wringing about who sits when Giles returns... it might just be Bolden (along with Jeter).

[DukieTiger]

Grayson had 8 assists tonight. Having him sit isn't going to do much good for this team. G will be fine.

Interesting that K pretty much went with 6 guys once again. Though I think we'll gradually see more of Bolden as the season goes on. Once we get Giles back that will give us the 8-man rotation (fingers crossed all healthy).

It was 6, but the addition of Tatum gives them that Dunleavy-in-2000 "deep depth".

Anyone else notice Tatum pull a Duhon at the end of the game?

[Furniture]

Quinn Cook‏ @QCook323
This team is SPECIAL!! Wow! Let's go

[juise]

amile keeps this up, and his number will be in the rafters.

Whoa. Can't say enough about what Amile is doing, but that may be going a bit far. I think if keeps this up, he'll have Chris Carawell's senior year (ACC POY contention), but it will be really hard to get into the rafters. He would really need to be national POY without having the lifetime achievement angle (multiple years of All-America or a career major statistical record).

[ricks68]

I know everyone caught the Battier play where Amile blocks the shot and then jumps in the air out of bounds to be able to pass it back. Then he recovers and races down the court to receive the pass and score. What a fantastic sequence.:):):cool:

ricks

[jipops]

I don't think it was a conditioning issue tonight with Bolden. He just wasn't in the right spots and fouled twice quickly, and Jefferson was BALLING. So Coach K stuck with the hot hand.

For all the hand-wringing about who sits when Giles returns... it might just be Bolden (along with Jeter).

It's still hard to see this with Bolden. Though not a polished player by any stretch it was obvious in the preseason that this kid has real skill. I think it's just going to take him longer to reintegrate since a guy in his position doesn't have the kind of freedom with the ball like Jayson does. But he is likely much further along skill wise than Jeter. And we really don't know what kind of player Giles will be when he gets back. I've aged a lot since he last played an actual game.

[uh_no]

Whoa. Can't say enough about what Amile is doing, but that may be going a bit far. I think if keeps this up, he'll have Chris Carawell's senior year (ACC POY contention), but it will be really hard to get into the rafters. He would really need to be national POY without having the lifetime achievement angle (multiple years of All-America or a career major statistical record).

by "keep this up" I mean "continue to average 22 and 12 as he has the past 2 games"

If a guy averaging 22 and 12 DOESN'T win player of the year, something is very wrong.....hansbrough's best season was only 22 and 10....

[KandG]

Great win, more so for the upside it portends for the team moving forward, rather than one of those gritty "survive and advance" type wins with a shorthanded team we've had to manage for what seems like a while now.

There was a lot that was annoying at first, most notably the turnovers and the ragged flow, not to mention getting picked apart by their guards on high pick and rolls all game. Even with Amile and Luke establishing a clear talent advantage from the start, it felt like we were allowing Florida's quickness and bulk underneath to disrupt us on both ends for a good part of the first half.

The fact that the Gators didn't even commit a foul until 7 minutes remained in the first half, despite creating so many turnovers, was remarkable.

But once Tatum got his legs and started to establish himself, it felt like the game belonged to Duke. That finish he had at the end of the first half through contact was stunning. Even though there were long stretches of the second half where Jayson barely got a touch because Amile and Luke were so hot, it always felt like he was ready at any moment to take over. And eventually he did in the closing stretches of the game.

Grayson had good and bad stretches and it was painful to watch him try to drive into traffic on that gimpy toe, but he made Florida respect his offense enough to create for others. Now I'd like to see him get a good deal of rest to heal until the new year.

Amazing getting 84 points against a good, well coached team despite shaky point guard play and everyone still figuring out their roles on offense. And for all the (understandable) hype about the hyper-talented freshmen, to watch how Luke and Amile and Grayson have evolved as players is just as special so far. Can't wait to see what happens when Bolden and Giles are more fully integrated into the team.

[mgtr]

It was always going to be hard to integrate new players into an established (very good team). Well, so far so good, Tatum played very well with an already good team. So, as of today we have three rock-solid scorers -- Kennard, Jeter, and Jefferson. And y0u can't leave
Allen because he is great too. Then if you leave Jones unmolested, he will hit a lot of threes. And we have some talent left on the bench -- Jeter in spots, Bolden once he gets into the swing of things, and Giles, who could be great, but we don't know yet. Then in runaways, we have other youngsters who are learning, and will get better as the season progresses.
Color me Duke Blue!

[Edouble]

It was always going to be hard to integrate new players into an established (very good team). Well, so far so good, Tatum played very well with an already good team. So, as of today we have three rock-solid scorers -- Kennard, Jeter, and Jefferson. And y0u can't leave
Allen because he is great too. Then if you leave Jones unmolested, he will hit a lot of threes. And we have some talent left on the bench -- Jeter in spots, Bolden once he gets into the swing of things, and Giles, who could be great, but we don't know yet. Then in runaways, we have other youngsters who are learning, and will get better as the season progresses.
Color me Duke Blue!

Tatum, I presume?

[mr. synellinden]

Is Kennard the leading candidate for NPOY right now? Is Amile his biggest competition?

[uh_no]

we put up a 118 on offense against the 9th best defense in the country (kp)....that's so incredibly insane....we would have been expected to put up something like a 105. That implies an adjusted ranking of something like 153.

That's just nutso absurd. It's amazing how good this team was tonight on offense...especially given we only scored 8 points in the first 8 minutes..... SCACC didn't seem to have stats for tonights game, but if we assume posessions were evenly distributed, we get 76 points in something like 57 posessions, good for 133, or 195 or so adjusted.

So our performance for the last 30 minutes of tonight's game would be expected to net us on average 2 points every possession.....that's absurd. I can see why the cav guys were enjoying the show.

[DukieTiger]

Is Kennard the leading candidate for NPOY right now? Is Amile his biggest competition?

They are 3 (AJ) and 4 in KenPom's NPOY rankings.

[NYBri]

First off, Florida is a good team, a very good team. Upper level ACC team. Good to see us handle that kind of team like we did. Offense will not be an issue. If we learn to play just good defense, few will beat us. Course, that might also be the case even if we don't, the offense is so good.

The game has slowed so much for Luke. It looks effortless.

Damn, this is fun.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

by "keep this up" I mean "continue to average 22 and 12 as he has the past 2 games"

If a guy averaging 22 and 12 DOESN'T win player of the year, something is very wrong....hansbrough's best season was only 22 and 10...

Or... just get another BIG banner with his name on it... that wouldn't hurt.

For all the talk about Grayson and our freshmen going into the season, how much fun is it watching Luke and Amile just absolutely kill it?

[uh_no]

or... Just get another big banner with his name on it... That wouldn't hurt.

1991 - 1992 - 2001 - 2010 - 2015 - amile

[richardjackson199]

Your table is ready Mr. Tatum. Yes, Kennard and Jefferson led the show, but the most exciting part of the game for me was Tatum's arrival to the big stage. He soared for rebounds in traffic. He toyed with defenders in the post. He forced turnovers. He scored in transition. The kid is a stud, and brings an element to this team that was missing.

Back to Kennard and Jefferson. Wow. Kennard continues to amaze with his mid-range game. When his 3 is falling, it just isn't fair. And Jefferson's crafty post game, his tenacious rebounding, and even blocking shots. He was huge.

Tough night for Allen, though he did ice the game with a nice runner over their big.

Also a tough night for Jones. He was for the most part steady, but had two glaringly bad miscues. He will have better days. Defense travels.

Not a lot else to be said. It was largely a 3-man show. But what a show!

This was such a great win for this team. It was the most enjoyable win of the season so far.

You've made many great points on Tatum. He's this good 2 games in, and he's still figuring things out. This kid is going to be Kobe Bryant good before it's all said and done with his NBA career.

But the thing that impressed me most with Tatum tonight was his patience and unselfishness. He let the game come to him and tried to set up his teammates. Dino Gaudio criticized him as ball-centric (ball-hog) during the Maine game, and that has been said many times. That wasn't the case at all. He was a great team player, but also a stud within the flow of the offense. He played hard on both ends of the floor, and gave us an awesome extra presence in the post rebounding that we needed. His chemistry with his teammates was very impressive for his 2nd game against a good team playing their heart out against us.

We need to keep improving, but the ceiling for this team is sky high. Hopefully Grayson can do whatever he needs to do at this point to get healthy before conference play. I'd love to see Giles start playing soon.

This season could be fun. :)

Viva Las Vegas! Make sure the team hydrates WELL for that one! It's so easy to get dehydrated in the desert after that long flight.

[Utley]

Was at the game tonight - seeing Tatum up close was striking. He is a man among boys - you just look at him and think NBA. We looked so athletic in certain combinations with him out there.

I think that's a decent Florida team - very athletic - that shot out of its mind toward the end of the game. It's a good win. I believe they were renown for their D it had had no answer for Luke, Amile or Tatum- not sure many will.

Is it me or does Luke's quick release and play under control look a little Steph Curryesque?

Who's ahead of Amile and Luke for player of the year.

[subzero02]

I want Bolden back for one primary reason, to help Amile on the defensive boards. Kennard has obviously turned a corner. Much better trajectory on his shot compared to last year... (Dunleavy had/has a flat shot that rims out far too often)

[juise]

1991 - 1992 - 2001 - 2010 - 2015 - amile

Ohhhh. That's what you meant. Then I'm totally in on that. 😂

[Steven43]

And it wouldnt be a game for me without commenting on the poor level of collegiate officiating we have. The number of travels that Florida got away with was absurd.
Oh my gosh, I was sooo hoping others noticed!! It seemed tonight that Florida was introducing a new dimension to the sport--one in which it is perfectly fine to take 3-4 steps after picking up one's dribble without threat of repercussions. It was mind-blowing to see how many times they did it and got away with it (every time as far as I recall). It really cheapens the sport when things like this are allowed. Florida would have lost by 25 had the refs called the game correctly.

[Steven43]

By the way, did anyone hear anything substantive about why Bolden played so little?

[duke4ever19]

There's going to be a whole lot of winning and very little losing the next few months (I hope the capricious sports gods don't know how to read English, or use the internet).

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

By the way, did anyone hear anything substantive about why Bolden played so little?

Early fouls and Amile's dominance? I know it is confusing because we had crowned him the next... Elton? G-Man? Landlord?

[Neals384]

Great game! My only regret is that Canyon Barry didn't get to the free throw line. Is it really true he tosses them underhand like daddy?

[mr. synellinden]

Or... just get another BIG banner with his name on it... that wouldn't hurt.

For all the talk about Grayson and our freshmen going into the season, how much fun is it watching Luke and Amile just absolutely kill it?

Well, the pre-season NPOY is our fourth best player right now. And the guy with the most talent on the team hasn't played a minute yet. Yeah, it's so much fun watching those two light it up - but it's likely going to get even more fun.

GGLC.

[crf30]

we put up a 118 on offense against the 9th best defense in the country (kp)...that's so incredibly insane...we would have been expected to put up something like a 105. That implies an adjusted ranking of something like 153.

That's just nutso absurd. It's amazing how good this team was tonight on offense...especially given we only scored 8 points in the first 8 minutes.... SCACC didn't seem to have stats for tonights game, but if we assume posessions were evenly distributed, we get 76 points in something like 57 posessions, good for 133, or 195 or so adjusted.

So our performance for the last 30 minutes of tonight's game would be expected to net us on average 2 points every possession....that's absurd. I can see why the cav guys were enjoying the show.

I am curious about these geek stats... Could you point me to somewhere that I could learn what the rankings indicate? I understand points per possession obviously, but adjusted rankings appears unitless so I can't interpret that.

[kAzE]

Great win, more so for the upside it portends for the team moving forward, rather than one of those gritty "survive and advance" type wins with a shorthanded team we've had to manage for what seems like a while now.


We've been a totally different team these past 2 games. Florida was hitting some crazy 3s to keep the game semi-close, but it never felt like a serious contest. I think with just the addition of Jayson, we went from a final 4 contender to a strong national champion contender. I believe we will undergo a thorough transformation again when Giles becomes the final piece, but even without him, this is a team that can beat anyone. Our top 5 guys right now are absolutely amazing. Jefferson, Tatum, Jones, Kennard, and 50% of Grayson Allen is the best starting lineup of any team in the country. Period.

The addition of Tatum is now giving Luke Kennard the most open shots he's ever seen in his life. This is ridiculous. I don't know who you help off of, but it can't be Kennard. His game on offense right now is like watching a master musician. Every move is so calculated and well executed. You're almost shocked when he's knocked off his spot or turns it over. He's incredibly fun to watch. Also, I think he's picked up on how everyone's talking about his hair antics . . . he seemed to do it MUCH less this game :)

I've already talked a lot about Kennard this year . . . so I need to give Amile serious props. I'll be honest, I thought he was playing a bit over his head to start last year, when he famously averaged a double double before going out with the injury. I didn't truly think he would be capable of sustaining that kind of performance over the course of a year. He has always been that solid glue guy, who made the hustle plays, but didn't put up big numbers.

Now . . . career highs in scoring two straight games, and still grabbing every rebound. He's added a TON of moves to his post up game. His touch on the spinning bank shot off the right block is impeccable. He's also more explosive than I remember . . . he's fully capable of executing a standing dunk inside. He's always been kind of a below the rim guy until this year.

Right now, Amile is nowhere in the top 200 or even the top 67 NCAA seniors on DraftExpress.com . . . they need to be put on notice. Amile Jefferson balls pretty hard.

[Olympic Fan]

K apparently said in postgame that he's hoping Giles will be playing before Christmas:

(I can't get the link to work, but the story is on ESPN's main basketball page)

It won't be Saturday at UNLV. But he's looking at Tennessee State (Dec. 19) or Elon (Dec. 21).

Just guessing, but I'll be looking for him Dec. 19 when Tennessee State visits Cameron.

[g-money]

Right now, Amile is nowhere in the top 200 or even the top 67 NCAA seniors on DraftExpress.com . . . they need to be put on notice. Amile Jefferson balls pretty hard.

I just posted this over in the Amile thread as well. Agreed.

[uh_no]

I am curious about these geek stats... Could you point me to somewhere that I could learn what the rankings indicate? I understand points per possession obviously, but adjusted rankings appears unitless so I can't interpret that.

adjusted just means the points per possession you would be expected to put up against an average defense. Basically it just normalizes for the strength of the opponent, which according to KP for florida, is very good.....meaning our offense should be even better than it looked.

Now, would we REALLY put up those numbers? probably not....we are probably in the far tail of the distribution of how well we could do against a team against florida (if not, all the better!) but it provides some further context to how incredibly efficiently we scored tonight.

[BandAlum83]

We've been a totally different team these past 2 games. Florida was hitting some crazy 3s to keep the game semi-close, but it never felt like a serious contest. I think with just the addition of Jayson, we went from a final 4 contender to a strong national champion contender. I believe we will undergo a thorough transformation again when Giles becomes the final piece, but even without him, this is a team that can beat anyone. Our top 5 guys right now are absolutely amazing. Jefferson, Tatum, Jones, Kennard, and 50% of Grayson Allen is the best starting lineup of any team in the country. Period.

The addition of Tatum is now giving Luke Kennard the most open shots he's ever seen in his life. This is ridiculous. I don't know who you help off of, but it can't be Kennard. His game on offense right now is like watching a master musician. Every move is so calculated and well executed. You're almost shocked when he's knocked off his spot or turns it over. He's incredibly fun to watch. Also, I think he's picked up on how everyone's talking about his hair antics . . . he seemed to do it MUCH less this game :)

I've already talked a lot about Kennard this year . . . so I need to give Amile serious props. I'll be honest, I thought he was playing a bit over his head to start last year, when he famously averaged a double double before going out with the injury. I didn't truly think he would be capable of sustaining that kind of performance over the course of a year. He has always been that solid glue guy, who made the hustle plays, but didn't put up big numbers.

Now . . . career highs in scoring two straight games, and still grabbing every rebound. He's added a TON of moves to his post up game. His touch on the spinning bank shot off the right block is impeccable. He's also more explosive than I remember . . . he's fully capable of executing a standing dunk inside. He's always been kind of a below the rim guy until this year.

Right now, Amile is nowhere in the top 200 or even the top 67 NCAA seniors on DraftExpress.com . . . they need to be put on notice. Amile Jefferson balls pretty hard.


The obvious choice is Matt, but when it happens, I can't wait to see him hit 5 spot up 3's in a first half of a game. It could happen.

That's when the other team just says (redacted) and doesn't come out for the second half!

Fun!

[gofurman]

This was such a great win for this team. It was the most enjoyable win of the season so far.

You've made many great points on Tatum. He's this good 2 games in, and he's still figuring things out. This kid is going to be Kobe Bryant good before it's all said and done with his NBA career.

But the thing that impressed me most with Tatum tonight was his patience and unselfishness. He let the game come to him and tried to set up his teammates. Dino Gaudio criticized him as ball-centric (ball-hog) during the Maine game, and that has been said many times. That wasn't the case at all. He was a great team player, but also a stud within the flow of the offense. He played hard on both ends of the floor, and gave us an awesome extra presence in the post rebounding that we needed. His chemistry with his teammates was very impressive for his 2nd game against a good team playing their heart out against us.

We need to keep improving, but the ceiling for this team is sky high. Hopefully Grayson can do whatever he needs to do at this point to get healthy before conference play. I'd love to see Giles start playing soon.

This season could be fun. :)

Viva Las Vegas! Make sure the team hydrates WELL for that one! It's so easy to get dehydrated in the desert after that long flight.

Agree w all the positives that have been said... My concerns are simply Grayson health (!).and Giles return and integration. Also seeing more from Bolden against good competition. So far w Bolden we have good strong work v a horrible Maine team and then really bad work - two minutes two fouls - v a great Florida team. I would have expected a little better from him. A couple of rebounds and put backs in ten minutes or something

Will be interesting to see Bolden. I hope we are seeing a rising star in Tatum!!!

Please let Grayson rest. We don't need him now. And rest must help as they are now keeping him out of both practice and the Maine game. Also hope Jackson is ok or we should let him rest soon. He may not be 100%. Didn't see much from him tonight

Exciting - Amile, Kennard and Tatum were awesome. Allen did what he could on a turf toe. Tons of nice assists

[porkpa]

When I see Luke, I think Dunleavy, except a better shooter.

[HCheek37]

Wow...what a game from Amile and Luke. Jayson added the majority of his work in the second half to keep the lead around double digits but I thought the work of Amile on the glass and in the offensive post plus the craftiness of Luke to get open for those 3s is what won the game. Glad to see Grayson also contribute in a different way despite further shooting woes (he's at 35% over his last 5 games).

Worried about Bolden, those 2 fouls were pretty lazy and his reaction to coming out of the game was not too positive. He needs to be more of a spark when he comes in or Amile is going to continue to play 35+ minutes and Marques will struggle to see significant PT.

Matt was the other player that didn't impress tonight and as a poster noted earlier, its tough to see him consistently getting 35 minutes once Harry is ready to go. I know K trusts him and he will probably stay as a starter in his senior year but some of those mistakes - tossing the ball back in bounds under your opponent's hoop and losing the dribble at the top of the key aren't mistakes K will continue to live with. That, and he's shooting 30% over his last 6 games doesn't add up to keeping all of those minutes.

Great win though overall! Onto UNLV!

[Troublemaker]

By the way, did anyone hear anything substantive about why Bolden played so little?

It was just the flow of the game, the matchups, and the fact that Marques hasn't practiced and might not be well-conditioned enough to play a high-level game yet. Coach K did mention in the postgame that Marques was going to be a starter before his injury, so Duke will take care to build him back up to that level.

Because Florida plays at the PF a couple of 6'8 200-ish-lb dudes, that allowed Duke to play Tatum at the 4. We just spread Florida out and moved and shared the ball so well that the Gators had no chance to guard us. (That is, once we got used to their speed, which did bother us a bit in the early portions of the game.) Spread out, Amile could take their center off the dribble anytime. Jayson could beat his man 1-on-1 or get fouled. Luke was just incredible as usual scoring in his varied ways.

Overall, a very good game for Duke. I'm very excited that Jayson seems to be plug-and-play and might not have much rustiness to rub out.

[lotusland]

Great to see the way Tatum stayed aggressive on offense but didn't resort to hero ball. There's enough shots to go around and no need for this team to ever take a bad shot. It looks like he gets it. His energy on defense and rebounding was also impressive. Grayson is adjusting his role and becoming more of a facilitator which happens to be what Duke needs. Being a combo guard will also help him to stick at the next level. I didn't think he took many bad shots but it sure will be nice to see him get his lift back and finish more of those drives above the rim. Even so, his drive and kick game is still the best play we run. Jackson played good D and took pressure off Grayson and Matt bringing the ball up. He'll get better at finding the open shooter on his drives. I thought everyone did a good job of sharing the ball. This team is really fun to watch.

My only nit to pick is that Amile and Grayson spend to much time complaining about missed calls. That's coach K's job and he's pretty good at it. Florida scored a couple of transition buckets while our guys were jawing at the refs.

[TKG]

I love how this team shares the ball and how they rejoice in each other's success.

[NashvilleDevil]

Early fouls and Amile's dominance? I know it is confusing because we had crowned him the next... Elton? G-Man? Landlord?

We? I can only think of one person who put Marques on that pedestal.

[mgtr]

Last night was not a good game for Bolden to play in, Florida was too good and too quick at driving through the middle, and fouls come quick in such situations. It takes practice to guard without fouling. That will come. I was impressed by Florida, I would like to skip playing them in the tournament!
Very good team effort last night, led by the older players including Luke. Tatum plays like an older player, smart to pull up for little jumpers in the lane, I guess that may be his trademark. I hope that Grayson adds that shot to his arsenal. We know that he can shoot the three, drive to the basket, and now make assists. If he also had that little shot in the paint, he would be a quadruple threat player. Of course, he isn't too bad the way he is!
Happy to see the overall level of team play last night.

[luburch]

Grayson is clearly not 100% and it's showing in his play, but what's it going to take for him to get completely healthy? He's already not practicing and he sat out the last game. That's a week without basketball. If he's really not practicing at all how much more time does he need and how much does playing in a game set that time table back if at all? Everyone here knows that toe injuries can be tricky. Hopefully Grayson can get healthy sooner rather than later.

[Saratoga2]

Before reading the string I will put down my observations from last night.

First, Florida is a legitimate upper echelon team. They have size inside, athleticism at all positions, a very quick and skilled point guard backed up by a second kid with PG skills. They play hard for 40 minutes and are well coached. They shot better than I expected but were somewhat mistake prone against good defense.

That said, when Duke got to the lineup of Allen, Kennard, Jefferson, Tatum and Jones the score started too move out in favor of Duke. Realizing that Allen is playing with little or no practice and is still not explosive, we had to rely on three players for our primary scoring and did they ever deliver. Amile had a sensational game. They tried playing him one on one and it didn't work. Last I noticed he had 24 pts and 15 rebounds. Kennard is a man of many scoring moves and all were working, while Tatum showed what all the hype waqs about. He handles the ball well and can score in a myriad of ways. Allen had to help mainly with assists and defense.

What I thought was very impressive was some of the passing around the perimeter and inside to find the best shot. Amile was absolutely fired up.

When you realize that this team has a primary scorer not playing up to par due to lingering injuries and is in the process of integrating freshmen into the lineup, it was a very good night for Duke.

I can just imagine a lineup of Giles and Jefferson inside, Allen, Kennard and Tatum outside with Jones a 6th man and Jackson a very capable sub outside and Bolden, the same inside and that doesn't even touch on Jeter, Vrank and White.

Very good win for us last night.

[CDu]

Grayson is clearly not 100% and it's showing in his play, but what's it going to take for him to get completely healthy? He's already not practicing and he sat out the last game. That's a week without basketball. If he's really not practicing at all how much more time does he need and how much does playing in a game set that time table back if at all? Everyone here knows that toe injuries can be tricky. Hopefully Grayson can get healthy sooner rather than later.

Turf toe can take anywhere from several days to weeks to heal. Playing in games doesn't help the healing process. I suspect that if he isn't better over the holiday break then he will be dealing with it all season.

[Troublemaker]

Turf toe can take anywhere from several days to weeks to heal. Playing in games doesn't help the healing process. I suspect that if he isn't better over the holiday break then he will be dealing with it all season.

After UNLV, I could see Grayson sitting out the home games against Tenn St and Elon. That would give him a nice period of rest from Dec 11 to Dec 30. And then the ACC season starts Dec 31 at VaTech.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

We? I can only think of one person who put Marques on that pedestal.

I was trying to be gracious. I get very tired when after a player's 20 minutes of playing time they are compared to all-time Duke greats, and then the very next game the question is "what's wrong with Bolden?"

To be fair, this sort of instant-hyperanalysis seems to be all over sports and is intensified by the internet where people want to claim to be the first to recognize something or someone.

Because then you can say "I told you so," and thereby win the internet.

I prefer the longview of things and enjoy watching the team develop. Especially this year - with so many special pieces and so much developing to be done. After the season is over, I may take some time to look at historical significance of particular players, but enjoying the ride to get there is half the fun.

Back on topic - SUCH efficient play from Luke and Amile. Did anyone else think about Hakeem Olojuwan and Jerry West out there? :)

[Sixthman]

I was trying to be gracious. I get very tired when after a player's 20 minutes of playing time they are compared to all-time Duke greats, and then the very next game the question is "what's wrong with Bolden?"

To be fair, this sort of instant-hyperanalysis seems to be all over sports and is intensified by the internet where people want to claim to be the first to recognize something or someone.

Because then you can say "I told you so," and thereby win the internet.

I prefer the longview of things and enjoy watching the team develop. Especially this year - with so many special pieces and so much developing to be done. After the season is over, I may take some time to look at historical significance of particular players, but enjoying the ride to get there is half the fun.

Back on topic - SUCH efficient play from Luke and Amile. Did anyone else think about Hakeem Olojuwan and Jerry West out there? :)

I was thinking more Karl Malone and Bill Bradley. If you had told me three years ago that Jefferson would have an 18 and 8 game against a top 25 opponent, I'd have looked at you cross eyed. He had 18 and 8 in the first half last night. Remarkable.

[rocketeli]

It's been said, but I love me some Jayson Tatum! He doesn't just score--he hustles, plays defense and rebounds. He's the kind of player, when he gets the ball in his hands, you perk up, because all kinds of good things could happen. Enjoy him this year.
This was the most fun game for me this year. Amile was so fired up it was a little scary. It's good to be emotional, but sometimes, as another poster noted he gets a bit too angry, about calls or miscues.
Grayson Allen is clearly not himself. He has no push off with that foot injury. But he appeared to adjust and contributed by some great assists.
Kennard had a great game as well. Earlier this year I thought he was mostly benefiting from a "Jordan effect" that is teams were concentrating on the "star" Allen so much that Kennard had less attention, and thus found it easier to score a la Scottie Pippen, but now I think Kennard is doing it regardless.
That had to be the worst game I've ever seen Matt Jones play. Even his vaunted defense was nowhere to be seen, as the FL guards were too quick for him, and he made several mental mistakes, which is, whatever else you do or don't like about his game, is not characteristic for him.

[dukelifer]

We've been a totally different team these past 2 games. Florida was hitting some crazy 3s to keep the game semi-close, but it never felt like a serious contest. I think with just the addition of Jayson, we went from a final 4 contender to a strong national champion contender. I believe we will undergo a thorough transformation again when Giles becomes the final piece, but even without him, this is a team that can beat anyone. Our top 5 guys right now are absolutely amazing. Jefferson, Tatum, Jones, Kennard, and 50% of Grayson Allen is the best starting lineup of any team in the country. Period.

The addition of Tatum is now giving Luke Kennard the most open shots he's ever seen in his life. This is ridiculous. I don't know who you help off of, but it can't be Kennard. His game on offense right now is like watching a master musician. Every move is so calculated and well executed. You're almost shocked when he's knocked off his spot or turns it over. He's incredibly fun to watch. Also, I think he's picked up on how everyone's talking about his hair antics . . . he seemed to do it MUCH less this game :)

I've already talked a lot about Kennard this year . . . so I need to give Amile serious props. I'll be honest, I thought he was playing a bit over his head to start last year, when he famously averaged a double double before going out with the injury. I didn't truly think he would be capable of sustaining that kind of performance over the course of a year. He has always been that solid glue guy, who made the hustle plays, but didn't put up big numbers.

Now . . . career highs in scoring two straight games, and still grabbing every rebound. He's added a TON of moves to his post up game. His touch on the spinning bank shot off the right block is impeccable. He's also more explosive than I remember . . . he's fully capable of executing a standing dunk inside. He's always been kind of a below the rim guy until this year.

Right now, Amile is nowhere in the top 200 or even the top 67 NCAA seniors on DraftExpress.com . . . they need to be put on notice. Amile Jefferson balls pretty hard.

The NBA will love Amile. He probably will only be a second round pick - but he will play- because he is a lunch pail athlete who will learn very quickly and will be a great lockeroom guy. He will find a niche at the next level.

Tatum is already a pro. Everyone can see it. His game is still raw but he has all the skills you look for in a player. He is fast and strong and can rebound the ball. His shot is odd looking but it goes in. He was impressive yesterday.

Kennard is the ideal college player. His game is so complete. He rarely makes a mistake and he figured something out with his shot or the extra inch in height made a difference. The slight fade on the jumper is a thing of beauty. He is elevating himself on a national level.

Grayson did not sulk yesterday and became an assist man. He knows he is not 100% because I have never seen him give it up like yesterday. But maybe he will like that role.
The ball movement was very good. Grayson and drive and dish all day long because of his strength. We will see how that develops.

Jackson and Bolden did not play much because of mistakes but Freshman can be up and down.

Still very much enjoying watching this team. Lots of swagger on this team and team has good chemistry. Amile is leading by example. Can't imagine what Giles will bring but looking forward to finding out ;)

[Indoor66]

adjusted just means the points per possession you would be expected to put up against an average defense. Basically it just normalizes for the strength of the opponent, which according to KP for florida, is very good...meaning our offense should be even better than it looked.

Now, would we REALLY put up those numbers? probably not...we are probably in the far tail of the distribution of how well we could do against a team against florida (if not, all the better!) but it provides some further context to how incredibly efficiently we scored tonight.

Is that anything like normalizing like what was done with the political polls in the last election? Personally, I prefer to look at what actually happened in each game.

[devildeac]

K apparently said in postgame that he's hoping Giles will be playing before Christmas:

(I can't get the link to work, but the story is on ESPN's main basketball page)

It won't be Saturday at UNLV. But he's looking at Tennessee State (Dec. 19) or Elon (Dec. 21).

Just guessing, but I'll be looking for him Dec. 19 when Tennessee State visits Cameron.

Heh-heh. Just so happens that's the next game I'm invited to with OZZIE. :D

[sagegrouse]

yay! good win over a solid team.
Tatum really showed me something tonight! I thought it would take him a while to get back to game speed, particularly after the Maine game. If it weren't for 2 other stellar performances in this game, his stats would usually garner MOTM nods.
Amile was just a stud. We went to him time and again and Florida had no answer. Amile acted like a brute on the boards.
Luke was also a stud, but craftier, less brutish.
Grayson needs to sit for a while, he's obviously not himself and has not improved at all lately.
I think the 2nd half showed that Jackson will lose his starting spot to Tatum. Although if Grayson is shut down for a while, Jackson will probably start in his place.
Grayson had some spectacular assists, leading to wide-open threes by Luke, but wasn't moving without the ball like he normally should, It could have been nagging injuries, or could have been a decision to play a different role. I expect he will get some definitive advice from the coaches. Grayson's shooting was off, and he obviously deferred to the other players, which is admirable (but not what most of us would do as a reigning A-A player).

[OldPhiKap]

Is that anything like normalizing like what was done with the political polls in the last election? Personally, I prefer to look at what actually happened in each game.

Nate Silver v. KenPom. Two go in the cage, only one comes out . . . .

[sagegrouse]

When I see Luke, I think Dunleavy, except a better shooter.

By the way, a shout out to Mike Dunleavy, Jr., who is playing his 15th season in the NBA.

[CDu]

Is that anything like normalizing like what was done with the political polls in the last election? Personally, I prefer to look at what actually happened in each game.

Nothing at all like that. It is instead a way to account for the quality of competition. Scoring 90 points on 70 possessions against Maine is not the same as scoring 90 on 75 possessions against Kentucky or Kansas. Adjusted efficiency is an effort to address that. Is it perfect? No. But it is a hell of a lot better than ignoring quality of opponent.

[Ggallagher]

It's amazing to think that just a few years ago when Amile got the ball right outside the paint, other team's defenders would back off and dare him to make a move - leaving him totally wide open.

Now he draws double and triple-teams and either beats the defenders or dishes out to wide open shooters. What a difference a little dedication, hard work, experience and coaching can make. I really love watching him perform now.

[El_Diablo]

After UNLV, I could see Grayson sitting out the home games against Tenn St and Elon. That would give him a nice period of rest from Dec 11 to Dec 30. And then the ACC season starts Dec 31 at VaTech.

Why not start sooner? UNLV (#185) is worse than Tennessee State (#142) and Elon (#141).

[uh_no]

Is that anything like normalizing like what was done with the political polls in the last election? Personally, I prefer to look at what actually happened in each game.

do whatever makes you happy.

[OldPhiKap]

Why not start sooner? UNLV (#185) is worse than Tennessee State (#142) and Elon (#141).

Vegas is a good place to debut anything. K said that Harry had done some contact work but not a lot. And that the team just had not had much of a chance to practice because of all the moving-part-injuries. I expect to see a whole lot more of Bolden against Vegas, and Harry seems pretty close to ready to go. K also mentioned that Harry looked good in warm-ups.

And as an aside, I hope Chase gets a lot of minutes against Vegas. Would be nice for his dad and family. I would expect a few plays drawn up for him to throw it down.

[Steven43]

Early fouls and Amile's dominance? I know it is confusing because we had crowned him the next... Elton? G-Man? Landlord?

The sarcasm is misplaced and not appreciated. You clearly did not understand the previous discussion about Bolden.

[MChambers]

Turf toe can take anywhere from several days to weeks to heal. Playing in games doesn't help the healing process. I suspect that if he isn't better over the holiday break then he will be dealing with it all season.

At a recent post-game, Coach K said Grayson needs about three weeks to heal. I wouldn't be surprised if he's held out until the Dec. 31 game.

[flyingdutchdevil]

1) Amile is now super comfortable and super confident out there. 24 and 15? Against the best shot blocking team in the country? Really? Wow! Amile is our most complete big man since Mason Plumlee (I said complete. Jahlil couldn't play D). For those comparing Amile to Zoubs or Marshall, you are way off. He's in MP2 territory now. Just a pleasure to have him on the court.

2) I have been resisting to say it, but I will finally concede: Luke is a better offensive threat than Grayson. Grayson plays with a brute force and really leverages his athleticism; Kennard uses a variety of moves and is adept at scoring on all three levels. He makes everything look so easy! Luke's only issue is that he is highly inconsistent. After going 3-20 from deep in a three game span, he is now shooting 9-16 in the last two games. Hopefully he's able to get a niiiiiiiice 40-45% moving forward... I am officially on the Luke Kennard bandwagon. Our best offensive player.

3) Which brings me to Grayson. I am very confused by his play. Yes, I understand that he's injured, but that doesn't explain a) his poor shot selection and b) his mentality to get fouled rather than score. Also, if his shot was so bad, why wouldn't Coach K manage that? IMO, I think Grayson's shot is fine, but there is something going on in addition to the toe injury. Right now, we don't need Grayson. But we will soon.

4) Tatum. O.M.G. So many things to say! Here are a few:
a) Tatum is build to be a Coach K 4. He's not playing many minutes at the 3. Sorry, but he's just not. Coach K may change his coaching/recruiting year-on-year, but he loves two things: a stretch 4 (Tatum!) and a shortened line-up (more on that below). Tatum is unstoppable at the 4. He's too fast for 4s to guard him and too big for 3s to guard him. He's a legit 6'8" with the muscle and bone development to match. Really unbelievable.
b) NBA scouts say that Tatum's athleticism is holding him back. Well, you know what? That may be true for the NBA, but it isn't true in college. He's incredibly athletic out there.
c) Where the hell did Tatum's D come from? I wasn't surprised by the offense, but the D and the rebounding? You betch'ya! Awww...Coach K...bringing out the best in everyone.
d) Good luck stopping Tatum AND Kennard AND Amile. And when Grayson finds vintage Grayson, him too.

5) 6 man rotation today. Interesting. Bolden needs a lot of time to get there, but I'm confident he will get there. Jeter? He's unfortunately the odd man out. Sorry.

[Steven43]

We? I can only think of one person who put Marques on that pedestal.

Nobody put him on any pedestal. The discussion was about Bolden's physical presence, height, aggressiveness, and potential athletic ability (we don't really know yet) for a man as big as he is. Not one poster said anything about his overall effectiveness as a basketball player as compared to the players you mentioned or any other player. This is just silly.

[Steven43]

I was trying to be gracious. I get very tired when after a player's 20 minutes of playing time they are compared to all-time Duke greats, and then the very next game the question is "what's wrong with Bolden?"
I don't think it's possible for you to have misread the Bolden discussion any more than you did.

[uh_no]

3) Which brings me to Grayson. I am very confused by his play. Yes, I understand that he's injured, but that doesn't explain a) his poor shot selection and b) his mentality to get fouled rather than score. Also, if his shot was so bad, why wouldn't Coach K manage that? IMO, I think Grayson's shot is fine, but there is something going on in addition to the toe injury.on.


I didn't find his shot selection that bad.....he took 5 threes, none of which were bad looks, and 5 other shots, of which a couple were layups that I shook my head when they didn't go in. I can't really remember a "bad" shot that grayson took all game.

I also disagree that his mentality is to get fouled. He wants to score all the time, which causes him to make sometimes risky plays near the basket. The problem right now is he can't manouver as well, nor can he really get up in the air....all of it results in far less aggression than usual...which is grayson's biggest weapon.

A guy goes from being a career .450 shooter to low 300's? Yeah something is at work. He can't practice...something is very physically wrong....and it's showing in his play.

Also I'm not sure what you're trying to insinuate by "there is something going on in addition"

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

The sarcasm is misplaced and not appreciated. You clearly did not understand the previous discussion about Bolden.

I offered one answer to your question, theb some obvious sarcasm. My next post explained why I get frustrated at posts like yours and went rather in-depth. It felt like fair play to me.

My follow up post even included a smiley to indicate the sarcasm and playfulness intended.

Bolden is going to be a very good player. The instant analysis is unnecessary and annoying - in my humble opinion.

Let the kid play more than two games before anointing him anything. I am all for enthusiasm and fun, but really.

[CDu]

3) Which brings me to Grayson. I am very confused by his play. Yes, I understand that he's injured, but that doesn't explain a) his poor shot selection and b) his mentality to get fouled rather than score. Also, if his shot was so bad, why wouldn't Coach K manage that? IMO, I think Grayson's shot is fine, but there is something going on in addition to the toe injury. Right now, we don't need Grayson. But we will soon.

With regard to (b), that's always been Allen's mentality. He goes hard at the rim, and looks to convince the refs that he has been fouled. He will exaggerate (sometimes even fake) contact to try to draw the fouls. He also does get fouled a lot too, but trying to get to the line is a HUGE part of his game. It worked great for him last year, as he went to the FT line a ton. It appears though that refs have caught on a bit this year and are less apt to give him calls.

I think the big thing is that he just doesn't have the same acceleration or explosiveness as normal due to the injury. Which, unfortunately for him, is a HUGE detriment. He doesn't have the nuance to his offensive game like a guy like Kennard (who uses deception more than athleticism to get his shots), so if he can't out-athlete you he is limited. Unfortunately, he is also not shooting as well either, which takes away his other best attribute as a scorer.

Hopefully he gets healthy over the holidays.

[BluDvlsN1]

When Coach K said, before the injuries, this team has a
chance to be special, we kinda new we were in for a
fun ride this season.

I have to believe, K and the staff saw sequences last night
that they were seeing before the season started. We got some
glimpses on national TV.

Just going to say, that in the 2nd half, there were a few sequences,
previews of whats to come, where the court spacing was perfect,
the passing was crisp and accurate with the ball moving so fast to
the next open man, just ahead of defensive adjustments to find the
open shot. Those were sequences that were near perfect offensive
basketball.

There is a comment often used about some players that can sky,
that they have an extra rung in their ladder. This team still has 2
more rungs of the team ladder to get integrated, out there.

It will happen, and when Grayson bounces back to form, and with
the unselfish team play already exhibited, the sequences we saw last
night should be the norm. This already is fun and has the potential to
be a real special season.

I have to believe, that team defense, both perimeter close out’s
and pick and rolls might be a topic of discussion.

Bolden got coached last night, I would like to see him step
up to the challenge in Vegas and start becoming that other
force inside, prior to Giles coming back.
Giles may take a bit longer because it’s been so long since
he’s played.

When all that happens, Special Team, Indeed.

[DavidBenAkiva]

There are some really impressive stat lines from this game.

As a team, Duke shot better than 50/40/90 (FG%/3FG%/FT%) against one of the top 10 most efficient defenses in the country.

Florida came into the game as a cold shooting team, hitting just 31.5% from the arc on the season. They shot lights out, in particular at the end of the game, making 6 of 11 shots. And yet, Duke won by 10.

Grayson Allen clearly doesn't have his full range of physical abilities at the moment, but found other ways to contribute. He had 8 assists against just 2 turnovers on the night. I think most of us would take a 4:1 assist-to-turnover ratio from one of our lead guards most nights.

Jayson Tatum is just starting to make his presence felt in the college basketball game. He filled up the box score, putting up 22 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, and a block in just 29 minutes. The kid does it all. He played on the post and scored against forwards and centers. He played on the perimeter and made open shots and backed down smaller guards. He rebounded and was a disruptive force on defense. And he's probably the 2nd or 3rd option on a fully healthy team.

In his last 5 games, Amile Jefferson is averaging 18.2 pts/10.6 rebs/3.0 ast/1.8 blks1.2 stl on 69.8% FG% and 77.3% FT%. He has made his last 6 free throws, by the way. If he hits mid-range jump shots on a somewhat consistent basis, I think he's a late first round/early second round draft pick.

What can you say about Luke Kennard? He is 11-16 in each of his last two games. The kid is on fire, averaging 41.0% from 3 for the season. He was just 3 of 20 in his previous three games. A few on twitter were having the "Kennard is like (insert Duke player here)" conversation last night when one comparison really stood out: Manu Ginobili. He's crafty, shoots the ball well, slithers around defenders without being quick, and even has the premature balding thing going on. If I were San Antonio, I would draft Kennard to play alongside Kawhi Leonard for the next decade.

Can you imagine the nightmare of preparing a defense against Duke? Who do you guard on the perimeter? That just opens up Jefferson for isolation on the post. Last night was the first time I saw this team and thought "whoa, the ceiling is way, way up there." I'm excited.

[BigWayne]

Why not start sooner? UNLV (#185) is worse than Tennessee State (#142) and Elon (#141).

Time has more to do with it than strength of opponent. 9 days more to heal/strengthen/practice.

[Steven43]

I offered one answer to your question, theb some obvious sarcasm. My next post explained why I get frustrated at posts like yours and went rather in-depth. It felt like fair play to me.

My follow up post even included a smiley to indicate the sarcasm and playfulness intended.

Bolden is going to be a very good player. The instant analysis is unnecessary and annoying - in my humble opinion.

Let the kid play more than two games before anointing him anything. I am all for enthusiasm and fun, but really.
And I get frustrated at posts like yours which appear to indicate a thorough lack of understanding of a thread topic. And you still don't get it. Nobody anointed him anything. We were simply talking about his combination of physical size and his APPARENT aggressiveness and ability to move and run the floor considering he is a huge huge man. Nobody said anything about his level of ACTUALLY REALIZED and proven basketball ability and on-court accomplishments. What will it take to get you to understand?

[flyingdutchdevil]

And I get frustrated at posts like yours which appear to indicate a thorough lack of understanding of a thread topic. And you still don't get it. NOBODY anointed him anything. We were simply talking about his combination of physical size, aggressiveness and ability to move and run the floorf or a huge huge man. Nobody said anything about his level of ACTUALLY REALIZED and proven basketball ability. What will it take to get you to understand?

Fellas - mind taking this discussion in other thread or via private message towards one another? I think the vast majority of us are still enjoying discussing the game yesterday.

Thanks,

FDD

[Steven43]

Fellas - mind taking this discussion in other thread or via private message towards one another? I think the vast majority of us are still enjoying discussing the game yesterday.

Thanks,

FDD

Noted

[kAzE]

2) I have been resisting to say it, but I will finally concede: Luke is a better offensive threat than Grayson. Grayson plays with a brute force and really leverages his athleticism; Kennard uses a variety of moves and is adept at scoring on all three levels. He makes everything look so easy! Luke's only issue is that he is highly inconsistent. After going 3-20 from deep in a three game span, he is now shooting 9-16 in the last two games. Hopefully he's able to get a niiiiiiiice 40-45% moving forward... I am officially on the Luke Kennard bandwagon. Our best offensive player.

Welcome aboard! However, I don't totally agree with that bolded statement. Even when his outside jumper is off, he's still highly productive offensively. That's the best thing about his game. He doesn't NEED his shot to be dropping in order to be effective. The best example of this was the Michigan State game, where he went 1 for 7 from deep, but still wound up with 20 points on 44.4% shooting. App State was probably his worst game of the year and he still put up 18 points and 9 rebounds. Every shooter has bad stretches. Even JJ went cold at times. But Luke IS consistent. He consistently finds ways to score, regardless of whether his 3 point shot is falling or not.



3) Which brings me to Grayson. I am very confused by his play. Yes, I understand that he's injured, but that doesn't explain a) his poor shot selection and b) his mentality to get fouled rather than score. Also, if his shot was so bad, why wouldn't Coach K manage that? IMO, I think Grayson's shot is fine, but there is something going on in addition to the toe injury. Right now, we don't need Grayson. But we will soon.

I don't think Grayson's mentality is "to get fouled." I think it's "try to draw a second defender into the paint to leave a teammate wide open." He did that extremely well. But in order to keep getting the 2nd defender to come over, he's gotta still take a few shots to keep them honest. Grayson's doing a really good job of finding open guys on his drives. He's playing within his current limited capabilities.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I didn't find his shot selection that bad....he took 5 threes, none of which were bad looks, and 5 other shots, of which a couple were layups that I shook my head when they didn't go in. I can't really remember a "bad" shot that grayson took all game.

I also disagree that his mentality is to get fouled. He wants to score all the time, which causes him to make sometimes risky plays near the basket. The problem right now is he can't manouver as well, nor can he really get up in the air...all of it results in far less aggression than usual...which is grayson's biggest weapon.

A guy goes from being a career .450 shooter to low 300's? Yeah something is at work. He can't practice...something is very physically wrong...and it's showing in his play.

Also I'm not sure what you're trying to insinuate by "there is something going on in addition"

We have to disagree then. Grayson's trigger is so much faster this year than last, but it hasn't paid dividends. On his curls and fast trigger shots (of which at least 3 3pt attempts were), he is shooting a low percentage. Do I think Grayson has practiced this and can make them? Yes. But he is not, and hence it really looks like a poor shot.

I'm insinuating that something is going on because he's not being sophomore Grayson and I don't see the injury as the only reason. I do not think it is a chemistry issue or a physical issue; I think it's mental.

What I did love seeing about Grayson is that he recognized he wasn't scoring and went into distribution mode, of which he is the best on the team. And it really worked, as he and Kennard already have great chemistry on that end.

[uh_no]

When Coach K said, before the injuries, this team has a
chance to be special, we kinda new we were in for a
fun ride this season.

I have to believe, K and the staff saw sequences last night
that they were seeing before the season started. We got some
glimpses on national TV.

Just going to say, that in the 2nd half, there were a few sequences,
previews of whats to come, where the court spacing was perfect,
the passing was crisp and accurate with the ball moving so fast to
the next open man, just ahead of defensive adjustments to find the
open shot. Those were sequences that were near perfect offensive
basketball.

There is a comment often used about some players that can sky,
that they have an extra rung in their ladder. This team still has 2
more rungs of the team ladder to get integrated, out there.

It will happen, and when Grayson bounces back to form, and with
the unselfish team play already exhibited, the sequences we saw last
night should be the norm. This already is fun and has the potential to
be a real special season.

I have to believe, that team defense, both perimeter close out’s
and pick and rolls might be a topic of discussion.

Bolden got coached last night, I would like to see him step
up to the challenge in Vegas and start becoming that other
force inside, prior to Giles coming back.
Giles may take a bit longer because it’s been so long since
he’s played.

When all that happens, Special Team, Indeed.

great post. the one two i remember distinctly were one where the ball went all the way around the perimeter before hitting amile for a layup. I could barely follow it watching the screen....was waiting for someone to take the three, and we got a wide open layup. wow.

The other one was the grayson give and go. it was just a thing of beauty. yeah he missed the layup, which i attribute to injury (I think healthy grayson throws that down so hard the floor shakes). These guys are mostly on the same page out there. We just have to get into that flow earlier rather than scoring 8 point sin 8 minutes.

[Steven43]

With regard to (b), that's always been Allen's mentality. He goes hard at the rim, and looks to convince the refs that he has been fouled. He will exaggerate (sometimes even fake) contact to try to draw the fouls. He also does get fouled a lot too, but trying to get to the line is a HUGE part of his game. It worked great for him last year, as he went to the FT line a ton. It appears though that refs have caught on a bit this year and are less apt to give him calls.

I think the big thing is that he just doesn't have the same acceleration or explosiveness as normal due to the injury. Which, unfortunately for him, is a HUGE detriment. He doesn't have the nuance to his offensive game like a guy like Kennard (who uses deception more than athleticism to get his shots), so if he can't out-athlete you he is limited. Unfortunately, he is also not shooting as well either, which takes away his other best attribute as a scorer.

Hopefully he gets healthy over the holidays.
Very astute observations about Grayson. I hadn't really thought of it quite like this until I read your post. Particularly the part about Grayson not having the nuance to his offensive game as does a player like Kennard--who is starting to remind me more and more of the great Larry Bird (though on a much lower level) with his ability to comfortably make shots from anywhere on the court.

Grayson is a player who previously relied on his 3-point shooting, jumping ability and overall athleticism to get his points. When the three is not falling and his athleticism is reduced (injury, probably) he is but a shadow of the player he was. I wish he would sit out a solid month or more and then give it a go.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Welcome aboard! However, I don't totally agree with that bolded statement. Even when his outside jumper is off, he's still highly productive offensively. That's the best thing about his game. He doesn't NEED his shot to be dropping in order to be effective. The best example of this was the Michigan State game, where he went 1 for 7 from deep, but still wound up with 20 points on 44.4% shooting. App State was probably his worst game of the year and he still put up 18 points and 9 rebounds. Every shooter has bad stretches. Even JJ went cold at times. But Luke IS consistent. He consistently finds ways to score, regardless of whether his 3 point shot is falling or not.

This question originally seemed from "is Kennard better than JJ" and I pointed that consistency on the 3pt shot is what makes JJ a better shooter. But your point is well taken: Kennard scores is such a variety of ways that, when his 3pt shot isn't falling, he finds other ways to score.


I don't think Grayson's mentality is "to get fouled." I think it's "try to draw a second defender into the paint to leave a teammate wide open." He did that extremely well. But in order to keep getting the 2nd defender to come over, he's gotta still take a few shots inside to keep them honest. Grayson's doing a really good job of finding open guys on his drives. He's playing within his current limited capabilities.

If you ask Coach K against the Kansas game, he'd say that is Grayson's mentality. And I didn't see much difference in drives between the Kansas game and the Florida game. Also, keeping defenders honest with shots is a good thing...if you take good shots. Grayson took some really poor shots yesterday. But, as I mentioned, he is finding other ways to contribute, such as being our primary distributor (would call him a PG, but he doesn't bring the ball up).

[Troublemaker]

Why not start sooner? UNLV (#185) is worse than Tennessee State (#142) and Elon (#141).

That wouldn't surprise me but I think because it's a road game and UNLV is a good program historically, Coach K will feel like he wants Grayson out there.

[kAzE]

This question originally seemed from "is Kennard better than JJ" and I pointed that consistency on the 3pt shot is what makes JJ a better shooter. But your point is well taken: Kennard scores is such a variety of ways that, when his 3pt shot isn't falling, he finds other ways to score.

So here's a couple of fun Luke stats: He's put up double digits in points every game this year. He's only had 3 games shooting below 44% on the season thus far, but he's also had 5(!!!) games shooting 68% or higher, including an 8 for 11 game against URI, a 7 for 10 game vs. Kansas, and two straight 11 for 16 games against Maine and Florida. If his 3 pointer is falling, he could blow up for 30 points on any given night now.

JJ was the better shooter, no question. But Luke is a much more complete offensive player as a sophomore than JJ was. But it's probably worth mentioning that Luke is playing with better teammates than JJ did. He had at least 3 looks last night where there wasn't a Gator within 10 feet of him.

[sagegrouse]

I offered one answer to your question, theb some obvious sarcasm. My next post explained why I get frustrated at posts like yours and went rather in-depth. It felt like fair play to me.

My follow up post even included a smiley to indicate the sarcasm and playfulness intended.

Bolden is going to be a very good player. The instant analysis is unnecessary and annoying - in my humble opinion.

Let the kid play more than two games before anointing him anything. I am all for enthusiasm and fun, but really.


And I get frustrated at posts like yours which appear to indicate a thorough lack of understanding of a thread topic. And you still don't get it. Nobody anointed him anything. We were simply talking about his combination of physical size and his APPARENT aggressiveness and ability to move and run the floor considering he is a huge huge man. Nobody said anything about his level of ACTUALLY REALIZED and proven basketball ability and on-court accomplishments. What will it take to get you to understand?


Fellas - mind taking this discussion in other thread or via private message towards one another? I think the vast majority of us are still enjoying discussing the game yesterday.

Thanks,

FDD
Why don't we move on to something really important, like "fake news?"

[flyingdutchdevil]

So here's a couple of fun Luke stats: He's put up double digits in points every game this year. He's only had 3 games shooting below 44% on the season thus far, but he's also had 5(!!!) games shooting 68% or higher, including an 8 for 11 game against URI and two straight 11 for 16 games against Maine and Florida. He's a threat to score 30 every night at this point.

Yeah, I agree. The only thing that will prevent the 30 points is a lack of shots, which may happen with a) a healthy Grayson, b) a healthy Giles, c) blowing out the opponent too soon.

[crf30]

adjusted just means the points per possession you would be expected to put up against an average defense. Basically it just normalizes for the strength of the opponent, which according to KP for florida, is very good....meaning our offense should be even better than it looked.

Now, would we REALLY put up those numbers? probably not...we are probably in the far tail of the distribution of how well we could do against a team against florida (if not, all the better!) but it provides some further context to how incredibly efficiently we scored tonight.

Ah, I see. The rating is PPP*100. That makes sense.

I tried reading on the Kenpom site how the adjustment works, and it got really math heavy language-wise, but he doesn't actually lay it out in detail. So it's like I know it is a complex algorithm but I don't know the complex algorithm. Maybe I just didn't find the right page.

(Since I'm asking questions... I see people saying they will spork each other, and it seems to have positive connotations. I would spork you for your explanation, but I don't know what it means or how to do it).

[OldPhiKap]

This question originally seemed from "is Kennard better than JJ" and I pointed that consistency on the 3pt shot is what makes JJ a better shooter. But your point is well taken: Kennard scores is such a variety of ways that, when his 3pt shot isn't falling, he finds other ways to score.



Agree, Kennard is more of a scorer and JJ is more of a shooter. Jon Scheyer is the better comparison IMO, although Kennard seems stronger on the drives.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Agree, Kennard is more of a scorer and JJ is more of a shooter. Jon Scheyer is the better comparison IMO, although Kennard seems stronger on the drives.

I'm not sure I like the Jon Scheyer analogy. Scheyer wasn't half the scorer Kennard is, and Scheyer used a lot more energy on drives and nearer the basket; Kennard makes it look so easy. In Scheyer's defense, Scheyer was a better distributor and a muuuuuuch better defensive player.

[kAzE]

I'm not sure I like the Jon Scheyer analogy. Scheyer wasn't half the scorer Kennard is, and Scheyer used a lot more energy on drives and nearer the basket; Kennard makes it look so easy. In Scheyer's defense, Scheyer was a better distributor and a muuuuuuch better defensive player.

I can't think of a comparable Duke guy. At least in my Duke viewing lifetime (since the early 90s), there hasn't been a Duke guard who had as good of a mid range game as Luke Kennard. Nobody really comes to mind. He's such a good ball handler at 6'6", with a quick pull-up release, and has just incredible touch from mid range. That's a hard combination to replicate.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I can't think of a comparable Duke guy. At least in my Duke viewing lifetime (since the early 90s), there hasn't been a Duke guard who had as good of a mid range game as Luke Kennard. Nobody really comes to mind. He's such a good ball handler at 6'6", with a quick pull-up release, and incredible touch from mid range. That's a hard combination to replicate.

Lol. I was thinking of the same thing. I'm not sure there is a proper Duke analogy either. Kennard is unique. Normally, players who can score at all three levels are athletic beasts with a jumper. And in ball control, a super high IQ, rebounding, and legitimate height, and there really is no one to compare Kennard to. Maybe Doug McDermot with a handle? I dunno...

[OldPhiKap]

I'm not sure I like the Jon Scheyer analogy. Scheyer wasn't half the scorer Kennard is, and Scheyer used a lot more energy on drives and nearer the basket; Kennard makes it look so easy. In Scheyer's defense, Scheyer was a better distributor and a muuuuuuch better defensive player.

Scheyer is our tenth all-time scorer:

http://dukereport.com/duke-basketball-records-and-history/duke-basketball-career-leaders/

I agree that Kennard seems like a stronger kid and can muscle his way down the lane better than Jon.

(Side note: Scheyer is seventh all-time in steals too. Jon was often a very quiet assassin -- you don't recall much of his game but he laid 18 points and a bunch of non-stat defense on the opposing team)

[flyingdutchdevil]

Scheyer is our tenth all-time scorer:

http://dukereport.com/duke-basketball-records-and-history/duke-basketball-career-leaders/

I agree that Kennard seems like a stronger kid and can muscle his way down the lane better than Jon.

(Side note: Scheyer is seventh all-time in steals too. Jon was often a very quiet assassin -- you don't recall much of his game but he laid 18 points and a bunch of non-stat defense on the opposing team)

Thanks for the refresh. Color me surprised on Scheyer's scoring! I forgot how much he scored.

[DukieInBrasil]

The NBA will love Amile. He probably will only be a second round pick - but he will play- because he is a lunch pail athlete who will learn very quickly and will be a great lockeroom guy. He will find a niche at the next level.

Tatum is already a pro. Everyone can see it. His game is still raw but he has all the skills you look for in a player. He is fast and strong and can rebound the ball. His shot is odd looking but it goes in. He was impressive yesterday.


Lance Thomas had career stats that were less indicative of NBA potential than Amile, yet he has created a very nice career for himself (also, he had a pretty excellent performance last night, 11pts on 5/6 FGs). I think Amile could certainly create an NBA career for himself too, but he might need to work on that jumper.
If anyone had questions about Tatum being a lottery pick, i think last night answered that question. NBA draft is all about potential, and Tatum showed that he's got it. Even if his season stats are substantially less than 22/8, his performance last night on a national stage will stick with scouts.

[Steven43]

Why don't we move on to something really important, like "fake news?"

That was a very helpful post, thanks.

[MChambers]

Fellas - mind taking this discussion in other thread or via private message towards one another? I think the vast majority of us are still enjoying discussing the game yesterday.

Thanks,

FDD

"You must spread some Comments around before commenting on flyingdutchdevil again."

[flyingdutchdevil]

Lance Thomas had career stats that were less indicative of NBA potential than Amile, yet he has created a very nice career for himself (also, he had a pretty excellent performance last night, 11pts on 5/6 FGs). I think Amile could certainly create an NBA career for himself too, but he might need to work on that jumper.
If anyone had questions about Tatum being a lottery pick, i think last night answered that question. NBA draft is all about potential, and Tatum showed that he's got it. Even if his season stats are substantially less than 22/8, his performance last night on a national stage will stick with scouts.

I don't think there is any doubt that he's a lottery pick.The question is whether he'll be considered a top 3 pick, which is challenging given how loaded this draft is looking.

My guess thus far? Tatum is the second non-PG taken in the draft (Josh Jackson is looking veeeeeeery impressive).

[DukieInBrasil]

That wouldn't surprise me but I think because it's a road game and UNLV is a good program historically, Coach K will feel like he wants Grayson out there.

But UNLV is pretty bad this year, or better put, almost exactly mediocre. More poorly regarded than either of the two opponents following UNLV. Not as bad as Maine though. If Frank is good to go vs UNLV, i think Grayson will probably sit.

[cato]

do whatever makes you happy.

Raw happiness, or adjusted happiness?

[jimsumner]

Raw happiness, or adjusted happiness?

Too soon for a cinder-block reference?

[Troublemaker]

a) Tatum is build to be a Coach K 4. He's not playing many minutes at the 3. Sorry, but he's just not. Coach K may change his coaching/recruiting year-on-year, but he loves two things: a stretch 4 (Tatum!) and a shortened line-up (more on that below). Tatum is unstoppable at the 4. He's too fast for 4s to guard him and too big for 3s to guard him. He's a legit 6'8" with the muscle and bone development to match. Really unbelievable.

For the time being, but once Marques gets his conditioning up and Harry starts to play, I think it'll be half/half at least, with a lean towards Jayson playing more at the 3.

[English]

Raw happiness, or adjusted happiness?

Tempo-adjusted happiness above average, please.

[flyingdutchdevil]

For the time being, but once Marques gets his conditioning up and Harry starts to play, I think it'll be half/half at least, with a lean towards Jayson playing more at the 3.

Even with a conditioned Marques and healthy Harry, I still say Tatum plays 60%+ of his minutes at the 4, maybe even 75%. I don't think Harry is averaging more than 15 min a game and Marques will sub in for Amile rather than having the two play together.

Happy to wager on Tatum's split if you're interested.

[cato]

So here's a couple of fun Luke stats: He's put up double digits in points every game this year. He's only had 3 games shooting below 44% on the season thus far, but he's also had 5(!!!) games shooting 68% or higher, including an 8 for 11 game against URI, a 7 for 10 game vs. Kansas, and two straight 11 for 16 games against Maine and Florida. If his 3 pointer is falling, he could blow up for 30 points on any given night now.

JJ was the better shooter, no question. But Luke is a much more complete offensive player as a sophomore than JJ was. But it's probably worth mentioning that Luke is playing with better teammates than JJ did. He had at least 3 looks last night where there wasn't a Gator within 10 feet of him.

I don't understand the desire to compare Kennard to JJ. JJ's sophomore year was the low point of his career. It was the transformation after his sophomore year that made JJ the best scorer in Duke and, at one point, ACC history.

JJ starts for a contender in the Western Conference. He might be the second best Duke player in the world right now. It took another transformation (or a continued transformation) in Orlando for JJ to get to that spot. He is a true pro and all around basketball player.

Kennard's development is exciting because it is exactly what he, and the team, needed. I hope he continues, but I am not going to saddle myself with worrying about where he will stack up against one of the best players to come through the Duke program in the past few decades.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Even with a conditioned Marques and healthy Harry, I still say Tatum plays 60%+ of his minutes at the 4, maybe even 75%. I don't think Harry is averaging more than 15 min a game and Marques will sub in for Amile rather than having the two play together.

Happy to wager on Tatum's split if you're interested.

Also, playing Tatum at the 3 means you're sitting at least one of Grayson, Kennard, or Matt. I just don't see that.

[cato]

I can't think of a comparable Duke guy. At least in my Duke viewing lifetime (since the early 90s), there hasn't been a Duke guard who had as good of a mid range game as Luke Kennard. Nobody really comes to mind. He's such a good ball handler at 6'6", with a quick pull-up release, and has just incredible touch from mid range. That's a hard combination to replicate.

Agreed. He makes so many right decisions and really uses his size and ability to navigate through traffic well. He is such a threat with the ball in his hands.

[uh_no]

Also, playing Tatum at the 3 means you're sitting at least one of Grayson, Kennard, or Matt. I just don't see that.

well....whoever was calling for matt to get benched could get behind that....

[howardlander]

I can't think of a comparable Duke guy. At least in my Duke viewing lifetime (since the early 90s), there hasn't been a Duke guard who had as good of a mid range game as Luke Kennard. Nobody really comes to mind. He's such a good ball handler at 6'6", with a quick pull-up release, and has just incredible touch from mid range. That's a hard combination to replicate.

I think it's been mentioned before, but to me the obvious parallel is Jim Spanarkel. Both big guards (I think Spanarkel was 6'5, which in 1977 was a big guard) without incredible athleticism, but with tremendous skill including just understanding the game.

Howard

[cato]

Also, playing Tatum at the 3 means you're sitting at least one of Grayson, Kennard, or Matt. I just don't see that.

So, I haven't listened to Coach K's presser, but if he said that Bolden was going to start pre-injury, doesn't that mean that one of those three was going to come off the bench?

My guess is that the plan was for Kennard to come off the bench. I'm not sure that that will happen now.

[Troublemaker]

Even with a conditioned Marques and healthy Harry, I still say Tatum plays 60%+ of his minutes at the 4, maybe even 75%. I don't think Harry is averaging more than 15 min a game and Marques will sub in for Amile rather than having the two play together.

Happy to wager on Tatum's split if you're interested.

Your side: From February on, Jayson Tatum will play at least 60% of his minutes at the 4.

My side: Nope.

Injury protection is invoked. (e.g. Obviously if, heaven forbid, Luke breaks his foot, that would give me an advantage.)

That's the wager. Shall we do the standard 6-pack of devildeac's choosing?

[Troublemaker]

Also, playing Tatum at the 3 means you're sitting at least one of Grayson, Kennard, or Matt. I just don't see that.


well...whoever was calling for matt to get benched could get behind that...


So, I haven't listened to Coach K's presser, but if he said that Bolden was going to start pre-injury, doesn't that mean that one of those three was going to come off the bench?

My guess is that the plan was for Kennard to come off the bench. I'm not sure that that will happen now.

Right. I think Matt will come off the bench eventually. He'll still play ~25 mpg.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Your side: From February on, Jayson Tatum will play at least 60% of his minutes at the 4.

My side: Nope.

Injury protection is invoked. (e.g. Obviously if, heaven forbid, Luke breaks his foot, that would give me an advantage.)

That's the wager. Shall we do the standard 6-pack of devildeac's choosing?

It's on.

Devildeac - I don't drink IPAs, white beers, or anything "modern". Give me a great pilsner, lager, stout, amber ale, or brown ale. Once in a while, I really am Dutch.

[MChambers]

I think it's been mentioned before, but to me the obvious parallel is Jim Spanarkel. Both big guards (I think Spanarkel was 6'5, which in 1977 was a big guard) without incredible athleticism, but with tremendous skill including just understanding the game.

Howard

That's what I was thinking. Very similar games. I'd say Luke is a better shooter, but not by a lot.

[flyingdutchdevil]

So, I haven't listened to Coach K's presser, but if he said that Bolden was going to start pre-injury, doesn't that mean that one of those three was going to come off the bench?

My guess is that the plan was for Kennard to come off the bench. I'm not sure that that will happen now.

I just don't see how Kennard comes off the bench. He's too good right now and Coach K doesn't cave into freshman expected minutes.

Amile, Tatum, Kennard, and Allen are the no brainer starters. That fifth? No idea.

[MChambers]

Even with a conditioned Marques and healthy Harry, I still say Tatum plays 60%+ of his minutes at the 4, maybe even 75%. I don't think Harry is averaging more than 15 min a game and Marques will sub in for Amile rather than having the two play together.

Happy to wager on Tatum's split if you're interested.

Hard to know how much Harry is going to play, but I'd be very surprised if he only gets 15 mpg. In his games in 2016, sure, but after that?

[Billy Dat]

"canard" - noun - an unfounded rumor or story. I first heard this word in the movie "The Natural"...

Roy Hobbs:
"The only thing I know about the dark is, you can't see in it.

The Judge:
"A pure canard."

Hobbs:
"What's a canard?"

The Judge:
"A prevarication."

Hobbs:
"What's that mean?"

The Judge
"A lie."

The Judge was a pretty smart guy, but I am not sure he knows the definition of canard. It's either a candidate for POY, or JJ, or Scheyer, or Spanarkel, or Larry Bird, or, because of his 10,000 different methods for getting off mid-range shots...Paul Pierce.

I also think Kennard can see in the dark.

I also think Jayson Tatum's effort on the glass is an extremely exciting development. I also think Jayson Tatum can take just about anyone one-on-one if we clear out for him. I also think Tatum should be pushing the ball full throttle, coast to coast, at every opportunity.

I believe Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone.

I believe I am mixing up my baseball movies.

You're killing me Smalls.

I also think Amile Jefferson went down to the crossroads and made a deal with the Devil to power-up his low post game by 1000%.

I believe Bolden's hair is the latest in an amazing line of recent Duke hairstyles that deserves its own blog.

I think Grayson is very hurt, that he needs to watch tape of how Luke sets up his shot, and that his injury is secretly helping his draft stock because he's showing off his passing.

I also hope none of our players get in trouble in Vegas, "White Shadow"-style.

[cato]

Right. I think Matt will come off the bench eventually. He'll still play ~25 mpg.

I'm inclined to agree, except that if he is assigned to guard the opponent's best guard/wing, that would be tough to do from the bench.

I think one of the following will happen:

- Bolden comes off the bench
- Kennard comes off the bench as NBA style prime scorer for second unit.
- Jones comes off the bench

Obviously, we are at the first of these options right now. I suspect the last option will be Ks last resort. D is more important to maintain, because this team will be number 1 or close on O.

[kAzE]

Your side: From February on, Jayson Tatum will play at least 60% of his minutes at the 4.

My side: Nope.

Injury protection is invoked. (e.g. Obviously if, heaven forbid, Luke breaks his foot, that would give me an advantage.)

That's the wager. Shall we do the standard 6-pack of devildeac's choosing?

If Giles is fully healthy and plays up to his billing as a top 5 NBA prospect, I just don't see how you keep him off the floor. I also don't see how you could possibly keep Amile Jefferson off the floor. Then you've got to find some minutes for Bolden, who is clearly a 5. In that case, Tatum could only play the 3, because there's too much quality depth at the two post spots. However, as long as Giles is out, Tatum should play most of his minutes at the 4, where he provides a TON of value, not only because he's a match up nightmare, but because it also allows us to play our 3 best perimeter players together: Kennard, Jones, and Allen.

Your bet basically comes down to how healthy Harry Giles' knees are. So it's basically a crapshoot.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Hard to know how much Harry is going to play, but I'd be very surprised if he only gets 15 mpg. In his games in 2016, sure, but after that?

Harry hasn't played competitive basketball in 13 months. He's had 3 operations on two different knees (two serious operations). It's well known that the coaching staff is being extremely cautious with Giles right now. I assume that doesn't change when he eventually gets back on the court. Like Embiid, IMO, Harry's minutes will be limited.

[CDu]

Scheyer is our tenth all-time scorer:

http://dukereport.com/duke-basketball-records-and-history/duke-basketball-career-leaders/

I agree that Kennard seems like a stronger kid and can muscle his way down the lane better than Jon.

(Side note: Scheyer is seventh all-time in steals too. Jon was often a very quiet assassin -- you don't recall much of his game but he laid 18 points and a bunch of non-stat defense on the opposing team)

To be fair, that ranking is a bit inflated by games played. Scheyer averaged only about 12 ppg as a freshman and sophomore and only ~15 ppg as a junior. He averaged 18.2 ppg as a senior. His career point total looks nice because the best scorers at Duke tended to play 3 years or less. Scheyer was a solid but not great scorer who played major minutes for a long time.

For comparison, Kennard's scoring as a freshman compares with Scheyer'scsophomore numbers. Kennard's sophomore scoring numbers (small sample size caveat here) compare favorably with Scheyer's senior year numbers.

[Neals384]

Wow...what a game from Amile and Luke. Jayson added the majority of his work in the second half to keep the lead around double digits but I thought the work of Amile on the glass and in the offensive post plus the craftiness of Luke to get open for those 3s is what won the game. Glad to see Grayson also contribute in a different way despite further shooting woes (he's at 35% over his last 5 games).

Worried about Bolden, those 2 fouls were pretty lazy and his reaction to coming out of the game was not too positive. He needs to be more of a spark when he comes in or Amile is going to continue to play 35+ minutes and Marques will struggle to see significant PT. I took a few looks at the inbounds play at 12:22 of the first half, where Boldin picked up his second foul, ending his night. Here's the setup:
For Florida
Hill - inbounding from right of the basket
Egbunu - on the lower right block
Chiozza - on the far three pt line, left corner
Barry and Robinson - just below the free throw line.

For Duke -
Amile - guarding Egbunu
Jackson - right of Egbunu, ready to pick up Hill
Jones - on the left block, ready to go out and cover Chiozza
Boldin - under the basket, watching inbounder
Kennard - on the charge line, ready to guard Barry

The movement -
As Hill is given the ball, Barry and Robinson both move away from the basket, to the free throw line.
Kennard takes a step or two toward them. Barry now sets a pick as Robinson goes full circle around him and heads to the basket.
Jackson sees the pick and takes a step toward Robinson, but he can't help.
Now, Chiozza slides along the 3 point line, drawing Jones away from the basket.
Egbunu takes a step away from the basket to set a pick on Jackson, as Barry moves to the 3 point line in the right corner. Kennard is left at the free throw line, with no one to guard.
Hill's pass to Robinson was perfectly timed. Everything worked, except the layup didn't go in. Boldin reacted late and fouled.

It's a well designed play. If Robinson's cut to the basket is covered, there are three other options: Barry in the right corner for a three or Chiozza for a three, with open passing lanes to both. Finally, the play also offers an in bounds pass to Egbunu with a pass back to Hill for a three from the corner.

What went wrong?
Mainly, Bolden. He stood woodenly under the basket. He needs to recognize that Robinson is his cover, and he need his head on a swivel. I think he simply hadn't learned (or didn't remember) his assignment on the in bounds play. Should be easy to fix.
Also, it seems that no one communicated. Kennard and Jackson, for sure, saw the problem developing. Jones, too, might have seen trouble coming and yelled at Bolden or stepped in to help defend.

After the play, Luke made an expressive gesture - hands spread and palms up. The message to Bolden seemed clear: WTF? We've talked before about Luke's body language when a play goes sideways. Hope the coaches are working with him on that.

After all these years, I've still very raw when it comes to understanding the X's and O's of basketball, so if any of the experts here have a better understanding of this play I'd like to hear it.


Matt was the other player that didn't impress tonight and as a poster noted earlier, its tough to see him consistently getting 35 minutes once Harry is ready to go. I know K trusts him and he will probably stay as a starter in his senior year but some of those mistakes - tossing the ball back in bounds under your opponent's hoop and losing the dribble at the top of the key aren't mistakes K will continue to live with. That, and he's shooting 30% over his last 6 games doesn't add up to keeping all of those minutes.

Not to mention the intentional foul...

[Lar77]

I'm inclined to agree, except that if he is assigned to guard the opponent's best guard/wing, that would be tough to do from the bench.

I think one of the following will happen:

- Bolden comes off the bench
- Kennard comes off the bench as NBA style prime scorer for second unit.
- Jones comes off the bench

Obviously, we are at the first of these options right now. I suspect the last option will be Ks last resort. D is more important to maintain, because this team will be number 1 or close on O.

I agree. Jones is a remarkable player. His stat line is horrible, but he plays a lot of minutes, gets to cover the other team's best player, and usually gets a touch on each offensive sequence. I expect that K would want Jefferson or Jones available on every play, if not both.

A sequence that struck me was the 3 play sequence in which Jones got called for 2 fouls with one a flagrant. First, the flagrant was close but no disputing it. But stopped an easy dunk and sent a god-awful free throw shooter to the line. Second, a foul on one of Florida's hot hands. In all, Florida came away empty. One could argue that Jones put Duke in a bad position with those two fouls, but Florida came away with nothing.

[Troublemaker]

I'm inclined to agree, except that if he is assigned to guard the opponent's best guard/wing, that would be tough to do from the bench.

That's the tradeoff for sure but probably still worth it to keep Luke's NPOY-level scoring in the lineup for 30+ minutes. Our non-Matt perimeter players will have to step up their D.



Your bet basically comes down to how healthy Harry Giles' knees are. So it's basically a crapshoot.

Oh, I wouldn't say that. I'm very confident his knees are healthy.

[House P]

Ah, I see. The rating is PPP*100. That makes sense.

I tried reading on the Kenpom site how the adjustment works, and it got really math heavy language-wise, but he doesn't actually lay it out in detail. So it's like I know it is a complex algorithm but I don't know the complex algorithm. Maybe I just didn't find the right page.


As I understand it (and I could be wrong), the formula is actually pretty straightforward. It appears to be something like

Adjusted offensive efficiency = (unadjusted offensive efficiency / opponent's adjusted defensive efficiency) * average D1 efficiency

There is also adjustments for homecourt advantage and blowouts, but these aren't relevant to yesterday's game. Here is how the calculation works for the Duke-UF game.


a) Duke scored 84 points in 71 possessions. That's an unadjusted offensive efficiency of 118.31 points/100 possessions.
b) Florida's adjusted defensive efficiency is 90.68 points/100 possessions.
C) So far in the 2016-17 season, the average D1 efficiency is 102.4 points/100 possessions.

Thus, Duke's adjusted offensive efficiency for the Florida game = (118.31/90.68) * 102.4 = 133.60

To get a sense of how the adjustment works, consider the Duke-Marist game. In this game Duke had an unadjusted offensive efficiency of 117.50 points/100 possessions. This is almost the same as Duke's unadjusted offensive efficiency against Florida. However, Marist is one of the worst defensive teams so far this season, so Duke's offensive performance against Marist was nowhere near as impressive as it was against Florida. In fact, Duke's adjusted offensive efficiency against Marist was only 110 which is actually Duke's worst single game adjusted offensive efficiency of the year. It is actually even worse when you include the fact the the Duke-Marist game was in Cameron, while the Duke-UF game was on a neutral court.

Just for kicks, here is an estimate of Duke's game by game adjusted efficiency so far this season. (The numbers are slightly different for the calculations above because a) the numbers below include an estimate of home court advantage and b) there seem to be some minor inconsistencies on KenPom's site with respect to single game unadjusted efficiency).



Marist
107.5


Grand Canyon
116.1


Kansas
117.6


Penn St.
116.2


Rhode Island
124.4


William & Mary
118.1


Appalachian St.
124.7


Michigan St.
113.0


Maine
126.5


Florida
133.0



No surprise that Duke's two best offensive games in terms of adjusted efficiency are the ones with Tatum. I like this trend!

[kAzE]

I'm very confident his knees are healthy.

So am I, but I'm not confident at all they will stay that way. I hope they do, I hope he never has a knee issue for the rest of his career. But how can anyone know for sure? He hasn't played at all for over a year. The range of outcomes could be anything. He could become the #1 pick, or he could miss the rest of the season.

[sagegrouse]

I can't think of a comparable Duke guy. At least in my Duke viewing lifetime (since the early 90s), there hasn't been a Duke guard who had as good of a mid range game as Luke Kennard. Nobody really comes to mind. He's such a good ball handler at 6'6", with a quick pull-up release, and has just incredible touch from mid range. That's a hard combination to replicate.

Sumner mentioned Jack Marin, who, of course, played forward both at Duke and in his long run in the NBA. But that was THEN. There is also Spanarkel. I am not sure Luke is as tough as Chris Carrawell, and he is more versatile offensively, but we'll see how his career develops. (If he is assigned to guard Tim Duncan, well... Duncan is getting on in years).

[devildeac]

Even with a conditioned Marques and healthy Harry, I still say Tatum plays 60%+ of his minutes at the 4, maybe even 75%. I don't think Harry is averaging more than 15 min a game and Marques will sub in for Amile rather than having the two play together.

Happy to wager on Tatum's split if you're interested.

And I'll be happy to make the beer selection if asked. ;)

[flyingdutchdevil]

And I'll be happy to make the beer selection if asked. ;)

Thanks buddy. I specified by preferences above. You're the best!

[devildeac]

Your side: From February on, Jayson Tatum will play at least 60% of his minutes at the 4.

My side: Nope.

Injury protection is invoked. (e.g. Obviously if, heaven forbid, Luke breaks his foot, that would give me an advantage.)

That's the wager. Shall we do the standard 6-pack of devildeac's choosing?

Ahh, should have read all the posts before responding to FDD and offering my beer stewardship. Happy to help. Anytime. :cool:

[devildeac]

It's on.

Devildeac - I don't drink IPAs, white beers, or anything "modern". Give me a great pilsner, lager, stout, amber ale, or brown ale. Once in a while, I really am Dutch.

So noted. Remind of this again in early April. (I hope you realize what I did there ;).)

[flyingdutchdevil]

So noted. Remind of this again in early April. (I hope you realize what I did there ;).)

I recommend mid-April. I'll be too hammered for two weeks straight to remind you. You too will probably be incapacitated to make a recommendation ;)

[FerryFor50]

I just don't see how Kennard comes off the bench. He's too good right now and Coach K doesn't cave into freshman expected minutes.


Why not?

All that really matters is the number of minutes, right?

As for Kennard, why not have him come off the bench and get ALL the shots he wants, rather than having to share between Allen, Tatum, Giles, Jefferson, etc? Kennard has shown he excels when he has the ball in his hands, has a green light and can be a volume shooter.

When he's asked to take a secondary role, he doesn't do as well. I think Kennard would thrive as a scorer off the bench.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Why not?

All that really matters is the number of minutes, right?

As for Kennard, why not have him come off the bench and get ALL the shots he wants, rather than having to share between Allen, Tatum, Giles, Jefferson, etc? Kennard has shown he excels when he has the ball in his hands, has a green light and can be a volume shooter.

When he's asked to take a secondary role, he doesn't do as well. think Kennard would thrive as a scorer off the bench.

What data points are you using? A few games early in the season when Grayson was playing better? Or last year when he clearly wasn't ready for prime time? Regardless, both aren't good data points.

As for coming off the bench, when was the last time Coach K's best offensive player didn't start? I agree minutes is more important, but so is starting. I just don't see how any line-up without Kennard is better than one with him in.

If Kennard ever comes down to earth (hopefully not), then I'll happily revisit this topic. But right now, he's as surefire a starter as Amile.

[Kedsy]

As for Kennard, why not have him come off the bench and get ALL the shots he wants, rather than having to share between Allen, Tatum, Giles, Jefferson, etc?

Because Duke isn't like the NBA. We don't have a "second unit." If Luke comes off the bench, he'll generally still have to share with four of the five guys who were in the game before he came in.

[CDu]

Why not?

All that really matters is the number of minutes, right?

As for Kennard, why not have him come off the bench and get ALL the shots he wants, rather than having to share between Allen, Tatum, Giles, Jefferson, etc? Kennard has shown he excels when he has the ball in his hands, has a green light and can be a volume shooter.

When he's asked to take a secondary role, he doesn't do as well. I think Kennard would thrive as a scorer off the bench.

Not sure I agree with your last paragraph, but I definitely don't get the logic behind the stuff before that. As you said, "all that matters is the number of minutes." Well, how would coming off the bench but still playing a ton of minutes change the number of opportunities he'll get to be the main option? Will we ever spend much time without at least three go-to offensive weapons?

Regardless of whether Kennard starts or comes off the bench, if he's play 30 mpg he is going to be sharing the court with multiple other elite scoring options. Jefferson, Tatum, Allen, et al., are all going to be playing a ton of minutes, so their time is going to overlap a ton no matter who starts and who sits.

[kAzE]

Why not?

All that really matters is the number of minutes, right?

As for Kennard, why not have him come off the bench and get ALL the shots he wants, rather than having to share between Allen, Tatum, Giles, Jefferson, etc? Kennard has shown he excels when he has the ball in his hands, has a green light and can be a volume shooter.

When he's asked to take a secondary role, he doesn't do as well. I think Kennard would thrive as a scorer off the bench.

Luke's presence on the floor creates opportunities for his teammates. It's like Curry with the Warriors. Even when he doesn't touch the ball on a possession, his mere presence dictates how the defense moves and reacts to anything that happens in the offense. You can't leave Curry, and you can't leave Kennard. His scoring will almost surely come down a little once we have our full compliment of players, but that doesn't make him any less valuable. Having him on the floor as much as possible helps the team whether he touches the ball or not.

Florida clearly didn't get the memo, because they left Luke wide open several times. Don't think Tony Bennett, Rick Pitino, and Roy Williams aren't taking notice. They won't give Luke an inch if they can help it, and that just means more room for Grayson, Amile, Jayson, and Harry to do their damage in the paint.

[Rich]

Because Duke isn't like the NBA. We don't have a "second unit."

Platoon system! :eek:

[Saratoga2]

Lance Thomas had career stats that were less indicative of NBA potential than Amile, yet he has created a very nice career for himself (also, he had a pretty excellent performance last night, 11pts on 5/6 FGs). I think Amile could certainly create an NBA career for himself too, but he might need to work on that jumper.
If anyone had questions about Tatum being a lottery pick, i think last night answered that question. NBA draft is all about potential, and Tatum showed that he's got it. Even if his season stats are substantially less than 22/8, his performance last night on a national stage will stick with scouts.

He made one step back jumper off a spin move last night and they stuck the camera on kyrie. I could read his lips as he said "That was Bad!"

[DukieInBrasil]

Not sure I agree with your last paragraph, but I definitely don't get the logic behind the stuff before that. As you said, "all that matters is the number of minutes." Well, how would coming off the bench but still playing a ton of minutes change the number of opportunities he'll get to be the main option? Will we ever spend much time without at least three go-to offensive weapons?

Regardless of whether Kennard starts or comes off the bench, if he's play 30 mpg he is going to be sharing the court with multiple other elite scoring options. Jefferson, Tatum, Allen, et al., are all going to be playing a ton of minutes, so their time is going to overlap a ton no matter who starts and who sits.

but what if K strategically sits Kennard, just to make the opponent wonder "when is he gonna put him in?" while they s**t their pants waiting for him to come in. This will throw off the opponent so much that they never get their act together, allowing Duke to win easily. Once the lead gets so big due to the opponents' exasperation we won't even need to play Kennard b/c it'll all be garbage time, allowing the Funktacular Five to come in to finish the game. This way we don't even have to play Kennard at all. His presence will be amplified by his absence. Truly ninja stuff from K, the master strategist.

[FerryFor50]

What data points are you using? A few games early in the season when Grayson was playing better? Or last year when he clearly wasn't ready for prime time? Regardless, both aren't good data points.

As for coming off the bench, when was the last time Coach K's best offensive player didn't start? I agree minutes is more important, but so is starting. I just don't see how any line-up without Kennard is better than one with him in.

If Kennard ever comes down to earth (hopefully not), then I'll happily revisit this topic. But right now, he's as surefire a starter as Amile.


Because Duke isn't like the NBA. We don't have a "second unit." If Luke comes off the bench, he'll generally still have to share with four of the five guys who were in the game before he came in.


Not sure I agree with your last paragraph, but I definitely don't get the logic behind the stuff before that. As you said, "all that matters is the number of minutes." Well, how would coming off the bench but still playing a ton of minutes change the number of opportunities he'll get to be the main option? Will we ever spend much time without at least three go-to offensive weapons?

Regardless of whether Kennard starts or comes off the bench, if he's play 30 mpg he is going to be sharing the court with multiple other elite scoring options. Jefferson, Tatum, Allen, et al., are all going to be playing a ton of minutes, so their time is going to overlap a ton no matter who starts and who sits.


Luke's presence on the floor creates opportunities for his teammates. It's like Curry with the Warriors. Even when he doesn't touch the ball on a possession, his mere presence dictates how the defense moves and reacts to anything that happens in the offense. You can't leave Curry, and you can't leave Kennard. His scoring will almost surely come down a little once we have our full compliment of players, but that doesn't make him any less valuable. Having him on the floor as much as possible helps the team whether he touches the ball or not.

Florida clearly didn't get the memo, because they left Luke wide open several times. Don't think Tony Bennett, Rick Pitino, and Roy Williams aren't taking notice. They won't give Luke an inch if they can help it, and that just means more room for Grayson, Amile, Jayson, and Harry to do their damage in the paint.

All fair points. To Kedsy's credit, I *was* thinking more in terms of NBA lineups rather than how Duke normally does things.

I also wasn't taking into account Luke's heads-up passing and ball movement.

I do still think Luke does better when he has the ball in his hands and a green light; I suspect he may come down to earth in shooting % once he gets the ball less, but that's why they play the games, right? :-P

[UrinalCake]

I get the argument for having Luke come off the bench. When everyone gets healthy we will have four ball-dominant scorers (Luke, Grayson, Tatum, Giles) and five complementary players (Matt, Amile, Frank, Bolden, Chase). And you could argue that Amile belongs in the first group based on his recent scoring, but I put him in the second group only because he's a guy who is comfortable not scoring a lot. So if you have four ball-dominant scorers, do you really want to start all four of them? I think it makes more sense to start three of them and keep one on the bench so that there's more balance. The starters have enough shots to spread around, plus you get a couple defensive-minded players like Matt in there. Then when Luke comes in there's no dropoff in scoring.

[Indoor66]

but what if K strategically sits Kennard, just to make the opponent wonder "when is he gonna put him in?" while they s**t their pants waiting for him to come in. This will throw off the opponent so much that they never get their act together, allowing Duke to win easily. Once the lead gets so big due to the opponents' exasperation we won't even need to play Kennard b/c it'll all be garbage time, allowing the Funktacular Five to come in to finish the game. This way we don't even have to play Kennard at all. His presence will be amplified by his absence. Truly ninja stuff from K, the master strategist.

Why not sit him out all the time and maintain the threat of the super-sub? Just as logical and about as likely. I want him on the floor as much as possible. I seem to know what he can do. The guys who replace him - are, presently, unknown quantities. Bird-In-Hand (and I don't mean the town in Penna) and all that.

[CDu]

I get the argument for having Luke come off the bench. When everyone gets healthy we will have four ball-dominant scorers (Luke, Grayson, Tatum, Giles) and five complementary players (Matt, Amile, Frank, Bolden, Chase). And you could argue that Amile belongs in the first group based on his recent scoring, but I put him in the second group only because he's a guy who is comfortable not scoring a lot. So if you have four ball-dominant scorers, do you really want to start all four of them? I think it makes more sense to start three of them and keep one on the bench so that there's more balance. The starters have enough shots to spread around, plus you get a couple defensive-minded players like Matt in there. Then when Luke comes in there's no dropoff in scoring.

A few thoughts:

1. I'm not sure I'd classify Frank Jackson as a complementary player. He's at his best as a ball-dominant, lead guard. He just has deferred recently given Kennard's explosion.
2. Are we sure that Giles is a ball-dominant scorer? Maybe he is, maybe not. It remains to be seen how reliant he is on having the ball in his hands to be effective.

I'd be inclined to say we have four guys who are most comfortable creating their own shots: Tatum, Jackson, Allen, and Kennard. Admittedly this next statement is based on only incomplete info for Tatum, but I kind of get the sense that that is the order of how ball-dominant they are (read, how much they need the ball in hand to be effective offensively). Jones is clearly a complementary player offensively, as is Jeter. Bolden just appears to be raw offensively at this point.

[Indoor66]

A few thoughts:

1. I'm not sure I'd classify Frank Jackson as a complementary player. He's at his best as a ball-dominant, lead guard. He just has deferred recently given Kennard's explosion.
2. Are we sure that Giles is a ball-dominant scorer? Maybe he is, maybe not. It remains to be seen how reliant he is on having the ball in his hands to be effective.

I'd be inclined to say we have four guys who are most comfortable creating their own shots: Tatum, Jackson, Allen, and Kennard. Admittedly this next statement is based on only incomplete info for Tatum, but I kind of get the sense that that is the order of how ball-dominant they are (read, how much they need the ball in hand to be effective offensively). Jones is clearly a complementary player offensively, as is Jeter. Bolden just appears to be raw offensively at this point.

Last time I checked, they only use one ball in the game.

[flyingdutchdevil]

A few thoughts:

1. I'm not sure I'd classify Frank Jackson as a complementary player. He's at his best as a ball-dominant, lead guard. He just has deferred recently given Kennard's explosion.
2. Are we sure that Giles is a ball-dominant scorer? Maybe he is, maybe not. It remains to be seen how reliant he is on having the ball in his hands to be effective.

I'd be inclined to say we have four guys who are most comfortable creating their own shots: Tatum, Jackson, Allen, and Kennard. Admittedly this next statement is based on only incomplete info for Tatum, but I kind of get the sense that that is the order of how ball-dominant they are (read, how much they need the ball in hand to be effective offensively). Jones is clearly a complementary player offensively, as is Jeter. Bolden just appears to be raw offensively at this point.

Interested to know where you put Amile in that. Historically, he's been a complementary player offensively. But I'm not so sure this year. Yes- he still gets easy buckets on great feeds from LuSon KennAn and offensive rebounds, but he's been creating a ton of offense thus far this year.

[CDu]

Interested to know where you put Amile in that. Historically, he's been a complementary player offensively. But I'm not so sure this year. Yes- he still gets easy buckets on great feeds from LuSon KennAn and offensive rebounds, but he's been creating a ton of offense thus far this year.

I would say Jefferson falls in either category. He can be completely effective as a complementary player. He can also be effective as a go-to player. But he certainly doesn't NEED the ball to be effective offensively. I suspect the same is true for Giles.

[devildeac]

I recommend mid-April. I'll be too hammered for two weeks straight to remind you. You too will probably be incapacitated to make a recommendation ;)


I will always be ready/available to make beer recommendations ;) . I'll stretch my special selections out over a month or three.:)

[kAzE]

I would say Jefferson falls in either category. He can be completely effective as a complementary player. He can also be effective as a go-to player. But he certainly doesn't NEED the ball to be effective offensively. I suspect the same is true for Giles.

Exactly how I'd put it. Giles is ultra versatile, and he can do many things for this team, but his biggest strengths as a player (from his high school days) are still defense and rebounding, which are things he can do without a basketball in his hands. Harry Giles' game is a complete meal. His defense and rebounding are the meat & potatoes, and his Chris Webber-esque ability to handle, pass, and score are the sides.

[jv001]

I agree. Jones is a remarkable player. His stat line is horrible, but he plays a lot of minutes, gets to cover the other team's best player, and usually gets a touch on each offensive sequence. I expect that K would want Jefferson or Jones available on every play, if not both.

A sequence that struck me was the 3 play sequence in which Jones got called for 2 fouls with one a flagrant. First, the flagrant was close but no disputing it. But stopped an easy dunk and sent a god-awful free throw shooter to the line. Second, a foul on one of Florida's hot hands. In all, Florida came away empty. One could argue that Jones put Duke in a bad position with those two fouls, but Florida came away with nothing.

The fouls didn't upset me as much as when Matt saved the ball and threw it right into the Florida player who just laid it into the basket. Coach K was really upset when the camera went to the bench. The other bad moment for Matt was when his defender stole the ball as Matt was dribbling the ball out in front of him. Two bad plays that could have hurt in a very close game. However Matt was once again the good defender we have come to know. GoDuke!

[Indoor66]

LuSon KennAn

Who is that?

[flyingdutchdevil]

Who is that?

He's this 6'5" white guy who shoots streaky threes, has an amazing mid-range, is a bull-in-a-china-shop going to the rim, and has a severe case of turf toe. Oh, and he's sadly balding but continues to play with his hair.

[NYBri]

Kennard will not come off the bench. He will get starting and full minutes.

[dukelifer]

A few thoughts:

1. I'm not sure I'd classify Frank Jackson as a complementary player. He's at his best as a ball-dominant, lead guard. He just has deferred recently given Kennard's explosion.
2. Are we sure that Giles is a ball-dominant scorer? Maybe he is, maybe not. It remains to be seen how reliant he is on having the ball in his hands to be effective.

I'd be inclined to say we have four guys who are most comfortable creating their own shots: Tatum, Jackson, Allen, and Kennard. Admittedly this next statement is based on only incomplete info for Tatum, but I kind of get the sense that that is the order of how ball-dominant they are (read, how much they need the ball in hand to be effective offensively). Jones is clearly a complementary player offensively, as is Jeter. Bolden just appears to be raw offensively at this point.

Bolden looks like he should be a polished offensive player. At this point- he has not shown that- just fleeting glimpses. No idea about Giles- but best case scenario is that he can give some explosive moments- will get better as the year goes on - and peak come tournament time. Tatum will have bad offensive nights- but the kid can rebound. Right now Kennard and Jefferson are the rocks. Waiting for Allen to heal up.

[dukelifer]

Kennard will not come off the bench. He will get starting and full minutes.

If I am K , I am not messing with Kennard at this point- not asking him to stop with the hair- not reducing minutes- not saying anything. If he continues to play like he has in the last two games- Duke will be tough to beat.

[rsvman]

Precisely. Don't mess with the juju.

The hair thing bothered me a little bit last year, but I'm totally at peace with it now.

[OldPhiKap]

Precisely. Don't mess with the juju.

The hair thing bothered me a little bit last year, but I'm totally at peace with it now.

Would that be juju on the beat? So on fleek.

[NSDukeFan]

Precisely. Don't mess with the juju.

The hair thing bothered me a little bit last year, but I'm totally at peace with it now.

If Kennard keeps playing like he has been, he can do whatever he wants. I agree with whoever after the previous game said they are surprised when he misses anything from mid-range. Last night, I would take away the " from mid-range" part.

I agree with Ozzie's GGLC comment while seeing Tatum dominate in the second half. It's not really fair to the other team to have him at the 4 as a very good defensive team like Florida didn't have anyone quick enough to stay with him outside and big enough to stay with him inside. That was fun. I also loved the tic tac toe passing with two semi open threes passed up for Amile's layup. Very fun to watch.

[Troublemaker]

I also loved the tic tac toe passing with two semi open threes passed up for Amile's layup. Very fun to watch.

Ball movement porn

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/BossyAchingCat-size_restricted.gif

[NSDukeFan]

Ball movement porn

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/BossyAchingCat-size_restricted.gif

Beautiful, and dunk, not layup.

[BandAlum83]

I agree. Jones is a remarkable player. His stat line is horrible, but he plays a lot of minutes, gets to cover the other team's best player, and usually gets a touch on each offensive sequence. I expect that K would want Jefferson or Jones available on every play, if not both.

A sequence that struck me was the 3 play sequence in which Jones got called for 2 fouls with one a flagrant. First, the flagrant was close but no disputing it. But stopped an easy dunk and sent a god-awful free throw shooter to the line. Second, a foul on one of Florida's hot hands. In all, Florida came away empty. One could argue that Jones put Duke in a bad position with those two fouls, but Florida came away with nothing.

Let's not forget the huge emotional lift a dunk could have given the Gators in a game that was certainly still in the balance. I wasn't too upset over that play. And in many ways the sequence did take some wind out of their sails.

[COYS]

Ball movement porn

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/BossyAchingCat-size_restricted.gif

That sequence was a joy to watch. What's really amazing about that play is that even had the defense somehow recovered and collapsed on Amile before he dunked it, literally all four other Blue Devils had moved into good positions to receive a pass. Grayson, Matt, and Jayson were all open on the three point line and Luke, after passsing to Amile, had positioned himself to be open for an 18-footer. Spacing has always been a hallmark of K's teams. I don't think it's possible to have better spacing than what we saw in that sequence.

[BandAlum83]

Not sure I agree with your last paragraph, but I definitely don't get the logic behind the stuff before that. As you said, "all that matters is the number of minutes." Well, how would coming off the bench but still playing a ton of minutes change the number of opportunities he'll get to be the main option? Will we ever spend much time without at least three go-to offensive weapons?

Regardless of whether Kennard starts or comes off the bench, if he's play 30 mpg he is going to be sharing the court with multiple other elite scoring options. Jefferson, Tatum, Allen, et al., are all going to be playing a ton of minutes, so their time is going to overlap a ton no matter who starts and who sits.

The solution is clear, since we can't add minutes to the mix we need to add possessions to the mix. Screw the 35 second play clock, let's shoot for 20-24 seconds so we can increase possessions per game so we can have 5 players averaging 20 ppg, and 2 more at 10 ppg, and Matt can still shut down their best player while averaging 5ppg.

See what I did there? W only need to average 125 ppg to keep all the fans happy.

Easy peasy!

Loyola Marymount had it right. Score as much as you can as fast as you can. Problem solved.

[devildeac]

Ball movement porn

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/BossyAchingCat-size_restricted.gif

I remember that sequence well. That, was indeed, nasty.

[Troublemaker]

Nice SLOB (SideLine Out-of-Bounds) play by Duke here. Nothing fancy. The key was just knowing your opponent's tendencies through film prep. Many teams like Florida choose to switch into a surprise zone on out-of-bounds plays to confuse opponents; in this case, Florida went to a 1-3-1. Well, Duke wasn't confused and indeed was prepared with a play for it.

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/FirstVioletCoyote-size_restricted.gif

Duke knew just by running Luke across the baseline, there might be a brief opening for a wide-open Amile at the basket as the bottom guy leaves Amile to jump out at Luke. Notice that if the opposite wing (where Luke came from) had done his job and crashed down to Amile, that would've left Tatum wide-open on the wing, and Grayson would've passed it there. That's horrible 1-3-1 defense, btw, but that's the point; Florida isn't used to playing it. It only works because they usually psyche out the opponent with the switch up of defenses.

[subzero02]

The solution is clear, since we can't add minutes to the mix we need to add possessions to the mix. Screw the 35 second play clock, let's shoot for 20-24 seconds so we can increase possessions per game so we can have 5 players averaging 20 ppg, and 2 more at 10 ppg, and Matt can still shut down their best player while averaging 5ppg.

See what I did there? W only need to average 125 ppg to keep all the fans happy.

Easy peasy!

Loyola Marymount had it right. Score as much as you can as fast as you can. Problem solved.

It's a 30 second shot clock, not a 35 second play clock... they've had a 30 second shot clock for a couple years now.

[weezie]

Ball movement porn

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/BossyAchingCat-size_restricted.gif

One more time for the world...We spent some quality time during dinner last night imagining this one again....:cool:

[Indoor66]

Would that be juju on the beat? So on fleek.

Where do you get the jujubes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jujube_(confectionery))?

[whereinthehellami]

Ball movement porn

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/BossyAchingCat-size_restricted.gif

I could watch this clip of Kennard absolutely abusing the whole Florida team all day. And if Coach has Kennard come off the bench, I'm getting in my car and coming down to Durham for an intervention.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I could watch this clip of Kennard absolutely abusing the whole Florida team all day. And if Coach has Kennard come off the bench, I'm getting in my car and coming down to Durham for an intervention.

Could not agree more. It's not like the last two games have been a revelation; Kennard has been playing this well since Kansas with a slight hic-up during William & Mary.

To me, he is as surefire a starter as Amile, especially with a hobbled Grayson.

[Troublemaker]

I could watch this clip of Kennard absolutely abusing the whole Florida team all day. And if Coach has Kennard come off the bench, I'm getting in my car and coming down to Durham for an intervention.

Yeah, even if Luke comes off the bench, which I don't expect, he'll come in at the first sub and stay in for the rest of the half; so he'll get his 30 mpg that way and will finish games.

I do agree that if he's receiving less than 28-30 mpg, it would seem suboptimal because he's one of the best offensive players in the country. But I don't think that'll be the case. I'd have to see it to believe it.

What I think will happen is that once Marques (or Harry) shows himself to be capable of starting, the starters on the perimeter will be Grayson, Luke, and Jayson. With Grayson being more of a facilitator when the other two are in the game. 8 assists against Florida, allowing Luke and Jayson to do their thang! That's how I imagined it in the offseason. Grayson will pass a little bit more because he loves Duke and is all about winning (not scoring stats) and incidentally, showing PG skills theoretically helps his draft stock anyway.

[NM Duke Fan]

Could not agree more. It's not like the last two games have been a revelation; Kennard has been playing this well since Kansas with a slight hic-up during William & Mary.

To me, he is as surefire a starter as Amile, especially with a hobbled Grayson.

In total agreement, Kennard lately has been the more or less consistent key to the whole offense and its rhythm. Well down the road as Giles gets up to speed it would not surprise me to see Grayson, Kennard, Tatum, Amile, Giles as the usual starting five, with ample time for the other three key players, and a few to several minutes for Jeter.

[flyingdutchdevil]

In total agreement, Kennard lately has been the more or less consistent key to the whole offense and its rhythm. Well down the road as Giles gets up to speed it would not surprise me to see Grayson, Kennard, Tatum, Amile, Giles as the usual starting five, with ample time for the other three key players, and a few to several minutes for Jeter.

The issue with that line-up is that no one is guarding against penetration. Grayson and Luke are great offensively, but there is a lot left to be desired on the defensive end. That's why Matt Jones is so crucial - he is our best defensive player. If Jackson can stop penetration, then it makes sense for him to be in the line-up.

Right now, that porous backcourt is the only true weakness of this team. And, honestly, I don't see it getting fixed anytime soon.

[Edouble]

In total agreement, Kennard lately has been the more or less consistent key to the whole offense and its rhythm. Well down the road as Giles gets up to speed it would not surprise me to see Grayson, Kennard, Tatum, Amile, Giles as the usual starting five, with ample time for the other three key players, and a few to several minutes for Jeter.

I agree that this is most likely the starting lineup in March.

Yes, Coach K loves the stretch 4, but there are precedents for Tatum playing at small forward: senior year Kyle Singler, senior year Chris Carrawell, junior year Mike Dunleavy.

What Coach K loves even more than a good stretch four is playing/starting his five best players. Hence, I think we see more of Tatum at the 3 once the team is fully healthy... unless the team is better with Matt Jones on the floor than Harry Giles, which is a possibility.

[BLPOG]

OK, I've finally got a moment to comment on this game.

First of all, I went to the game and it was awesome. Great atmosphere. I've never seen so much Duke support as a percentage of fans at a neutral site. If that's common at MSG, I suspect it's part of why Coach K loves playing there.

Everyone has already mentioned how great Jefferson, Kennard, and Tatum played. It was great to see in person. My Florida friends were very impressed with Kennard.

It's been touched on a bit in this discussion, but I wanted to praise Grayson's contribution in this game. His injury is obviously limiting his game right now, but he got assist after assist. He's sometimes seen as trying to do too much himself, and I thought his play in this game was an excellent demonstration of playing unselfish basketball.

Finally, while Matt Jones didn't have a great night, I noticed something I hadn't picked up before while watching on TV. While playing defense, Jones constantly checks the position of opposing players. Other guys were far more focused on one man at a time. I've always been a Matt Jones fan and noticing that just makes me like him even more.

[MChambers]

I agree that this is most likely the starting lineup in March.

Yes, Coach K loves the stretch 4, but there are precedents for Tatum playing at small forward: senior year Kyle Singler, senior year Chris Carrawell, junior year Mike Dunleavy.

What Coach K loves even more than a good stretch four is playing/starting his five best players. Hence, I think we see more of Tatum at the 3 once the team is fully healthy... unless the team is better with Matt Jones on the floor than Harry Giles, which is a possibility.

Good point, but you left out junior year Kyle Singler. I think that worked pretty well.

[DukieInBrasil]

The issue with that line-up is that no one is guarding against penetration. Grayson and Luke are great offensively, but there is a lot left to be desired on the defensive end. That's why Matt Jones is so crucial - he is our best defensive player. If Jackson can stop penetration, then it makes sense for him to be in the line-up.

Right now, that porous backcourt is the only true weakness of this team. And, honestly, I don't see it getting fixed anytime soon.

Matt is an excellent defender and makes our defense better, but he is not particularly gifted at stopping penetration from the backcourt. If he's so crucial, and our backcourt porousness is our only true weakness, then what's he doing?

[CDu]

I agree that this is most likely the starting lineup in March.

Yes, Coach K loves the stretch 4, but there are precedents for Tatum playing at small forward: senior year Kyle Singler, senior year Chris Carrawell, junior year Mike Dunleavy.

What Coach K loves even more than a good stretch four is playing/starting his five best players. Hence, I think we see more of Tatum at the 3 once the team is fully healthy... unless the team is better with Matt Jones on the floor than Harry Giles, which is a possibility.

I am not sure those examples make the case against Tatum at the PF spot. In Carrawell's senior year, we still had a stretch-4. It was Battier. Singler's senior season had Kelly as a stretch-4, and still a shortage of wings with Irving's injury. And junior-year Dunleavy WAS the stretch-4 (Duhon, Williams, and Jones at the guard/wing spots and Boozer at C).

That is not to say that Tatum won't play SF. As you said, it will likely come down to whether he feels the starters are better with Giles in or with Jones in. Either way, that sixth guy will get 25+ mpg.

[kAzE]

I am not sure those examples make the case against Tatum at the PF spot. In Carrawell's senior year, we still had a stretch-4. It was Battier. Singler's senior season had Kelly as a stretch-4, and still a shortage of wings with Irving's injury. And junior-year Dunleavy WAS the stretch-4 (Duhon, Williams, and Jones at the guard/wing spots and Boozer at C).

That is not to say that Tatum won't play SF. As you said, it will likely come down to whether he feels the starters are better with Giles in or with Jones in. Either way, that sixth guy will get 25+ mpg.

Harry Giles is our most talented player, but right now, this current starting 5 looks to have really good chemistry already, and the pieces seem to really fit. At least it seemed that way with our 1 game sample size. I would not be shocked if Harry came off the bench as the 6th man for awhile. He's going to have his minutes limited for at least a month after such a long layoff from competitive basketball, so bringing him off the bench is not that crazy.

I believe Harry does have a decent mid range jumper, but still, we will probably have a little bit less spacing offensively with both him and Amile on the floor at the same time. We may be better defensively with that look, but it's hard to say, since most people have Harry replacing Matt in the lineup, and Jayson has surprised me with how good he's been on defense thus far as a 4. He is much bigger and longer than I had imagined.

[jimsumner]

I am not sure those examples make the case against Tatum at the PF spot. In Carrawell's senior year, we still had a stretch-4. It was Battier. Singler's senior season had Kelly as a stretch-4, and still a shortage of wings with Irving's injury. And junior-year Dunleavy WAS the stretch-4 (Duhon, Williams, and Jones at the guard/wing spots and Boozer at C).

That is not to say that Tatum won't play SF. As you said, it will likely come down to whether he feels the starters are better with Giles in or with Jones in. Either way, that sixth guy will get 25+ mpg.

Grant Hill started at the 3 in 1994, with Tony Lang at the 4.

Mike Dunleavy started at the 3 in 2001, with Shane Battier at the 4.

Kyle Singler started at the 3 in 2010, with Lance Thomas at the 4.

Three small forward in the 6-8,6-9 range and three teams that advanced to the NCAA title game.

So, there are precedents.

[duke74]

First of all, I went to the game and it was awesome. Great atmosphere. I've never seen so much Duke support as a percentage of fans at a neutral site. If that's common at MSG, I suspect it's part of why Coach K loves playing there.

As a local, I've never considered The Garden a "neutral" site for us...even when playing St. John's or Syracuse. Technically neutral based on location, I guess, but we've always filled the arena pretty well. (And, in fact, the Meadowlands as well.)

I did wonder at times (if my memory is correct) why we didn't have the band with us in the past like it was this week. Maybe finances or timing...

[CDu]

Grant Hill started at the 3 in 1994, with Tony Lang at the 4.

Mike Dunleavy started at the 3 in 2001, with Shane Battier at the 4.

Kyle Singler started at the 3 in 2010, with Lance Thomas at the 4.

Three small forward in the 6-8,6-9 range and three teams that advanced to the NCAA title game.

So, there are precedents.

Again, I don't think all of those examples are relevant (or appropriate in one case). Nobody is saying we haven't played a tall guy at SF. The discussion is whether we would choose to play a tall guy at SF when we have suitable options to push him to PF.

1994: This was an issue of a shortage of quality perimeter players (though not to the degree that we saw in 2010 obviously).
2001: as was the case in 2000, we still had a stretch 4. It was just Battier and not Dunleavy (as in 2000 it was Battier and not Carrawell). You can only start one stretch-4 at a time.
2010: This was the most extreme example of a shortage of perimeter players. We had, literally, 4 guys who were perimeter players. And one of those was an 18-year-old who skipped his senior season and missed the entire summer trying to finish up high school coursework in order to be eligible. Heck, we were so short on bodies that Kelly actually played a few minutes at SF.

When Coach K has had comparable options inside and outside, he's tended to lean towards the smaller lineup with a SF at PF. If Giles (or Bolden, but more likely Giles) presents Coach K with a situation where he feels our starting lineup is best with Tatum at SF, he'll do it. But Coach K has tended to push his 6'8" SFs to PF except when doing so leaves us thin on the wings.

[Kedsy]

I did wonder at times (if my memory is correct) why we didn't have the band with us in the past like it was this week. Maybe finances or timing...

The band for games like this one is an alumni band.

[CDu]

Matt is an excellent defender and makes our defense better, but he is not particularly gifted at stopping penetration from the backcourt. If he's so crucial, and our backcourt porousness is our only true weakness, then what's he doing?

Making us 1/3 less susceptible to dribble penetration by the wings?

Kennard and an injured Allen are not good defenders. Jones is. But he can only defend one player. So you put Jones on the most dangerous perimeter player and hope Kennard and Allen and Jackson don't give up too much.

[MChambers]

Making us 1/3 less susceptible to dribble penetration by the wings?

Kennard and an injured Allen are not good defenders. Jones is. But he can only defend one player. So you put Jones on the most dangerous perimeter player and hope Kennard and Allen and Jackson don't give up too much.

Although I agree with CDu, I think this discussion misses much of what makes Matt so valuable. Yes, he's probably our best perimeter defender. But he also contributes in many other ways, on defense and otherwise. Remember that video up thread where he tipped the rebound away from a Florida player so Amile could get it? That's just one example. He's our No-Stats Allstar, at least for 2016.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Again, I don't think all of those examples are relevant (or appropriate in one case). Nobody is saying we haven't played a tall guy at SF. The discussion is whether we would choose to play a tall guy at SF when we have suitable options to push him to PF.

1994: This was an issue of a shortage of quality perimeter players (though not to the degree that we saw in 2010 obviously).
2001: as was the case in 2000, we still had a stretch 4. It was just Battier and not Dunleavy (as in 2000 it was Battier and not Carrawell). You can only start one stretch-4 at a time.
2010: This was the most extreme example of a shortage of perimeter players. We had, literally, 4 guys who were perimeter players. And one of those was an 18-year-old who skipped his senior season and missed the entire summer trying to finish up high school coursework in order to be eligible. Heck, we were so short on bodies that Kelly actually played a few minutes at SF.

When Coach K has had comparable options inside and outside, he's tended to lean towards the smaller lineup with a SF at PF. If Giles (or Bolden, but more likely Giles) presents Coach K with a situation where he feels our starting lineup is best with Tatum at SF, he'll do it. But Coach K has tended to push his 6'8" SFs to PF except when doing so leaves us thin on the wings.

I cannot comment on '94 and '01 (I was a little boy), but with 2010, it was Singler-at-the-3-by-necessity. Playing Singler at the 4 means playing Andre Dawkins in the backcourt, who as a freshman wasn't ready for starter minutes (he wasn't ever really ready for starter minutes). Our backcourt was so thin.

This year? We have 5 legitimate perimeter players that will all be part of the rotation. Unlike 2010, Coach K actually has choices. Hence, he will field the best team. I think the best team includes Tatum at the 4, because no coach loves stretch 4s more than Coach K and no coach is better at utilizing a stretch 4 than Coach K. One of the biggest issues with our frontcourt is that no one can hit a jump shot. Amile doesn't try to shoot them and I haven't seen anything from Jeter nor Bolden (in fairness, no one has seen anything from Bolden. But I doubt he's a mid-range kinda guy). Giles could, but we'll confirm that when we see that.

In conclusion, my hypothesis is that if Coach K has options, he will play a stretch 4.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Making us 1/3 less susceptible to dribble penetration by the wings?

Kennard and an injured Allen are not good defenders. Jones is. But he can only defend one player. So you put Jones on the most dangerous perimeter player and hope Kennard and Allen and Jackson don't give up too much.

Well, I guess CDu and I are on the same page this year. Jones is the best at stopping penetration on this team, but he's not Sean Dockery. Grayson and Kennard just aren't good defenders against fast guards. They are much better against bigger, more physical guards.

[duke74]

The band for games like this one is an alumni band.

Aha. Those student band members this week did look like post-graduate students to me...

Thanks.

[CDu]

Although I agree with CDu, I think this discussion misses much of what makes Matt so valuable. Yes, he's probably our best perimeter defender. But he also contributes in many other ways, on defense and otherwise. Remember that video up thread where he tipped the rebound away from a Florida player so Amile could get it? That's just one example. He's our No-Stats Allstar, at least for 2016.

Oh absolutely. He does a LOT of the little things well. I was just referring specifically to the point Troublemaker was getting at with the comment that "if Jones is a really good defender why is our perimeter defense still a problem?" Jones IS a really good defender, but one perimeter defender doesn't defend all three positions at the same time.

If you have one really good defender and two weak ones, that still leaves you with a problem on defense. And good, well-organized teams will do their best to exploit the weaker defenders. Kansas was able to do this. Michigan State was at times able to do it (though they suffered from bad PG play in the half court). Florida was able to do it.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Oh absolutely. He does a LOT of the little things well. I was just referring specifically to the point Troublemaker was getting at with the comment that "if Jones is a really good defender why is our perimeter defense still a problem?" Jones IS a really good defender, but one perimeter defender doesn't defend all three positions at the same time.

If you have one really good defender and two weak ones, that still leaves you with a problem on defense. And good, well-organized teams will do their best to exploit the weaker defenders. Kansas was able to do this. Michigan State was at times able to do it (though they suffered from bad PG play in the half court). Florida was able to do it.

Not Troublemaker. DukieInBrasil.

[DukieInBrasil]

Making us 1/3 less susceptible to dribble penetration by the wings?

Kennard and an injured Allen are not good defenders. Jones is. But he can only defend one player. So you put Jones on the most dangerous perimeter player and hope Kennard and Allen and Jackson don't give up too much.

I'm not trying to disparage Jones as a defender, in fact i think he's very good. My response was to the assertion that our perimeter D is porous and that we're susceptible to quick guards. So yeah, Matt stops penetration by wings, but doesn't do anything to prevent quick guards from getting past him. We don't really have anyone who can, although Frank comes closest. Although we'll get blown past by guards, it shouldn't be the end of the defensive world, 5 fingers, 1 fist and all. Jones is a critical component of that, he can help limit damage after initial perimeter breakdown. If the issue is penetration, then pointing to Jones isn't the solution, using the fundamentals of team defense is.
And CDU misread my comment, and then claimed i said something i didn't.

[Edouble]

Good point, but you left out junior year Kyle Singler. I think that worked pretty well.


I am not sure those examples make the case against Tatum at the PF spot. In Carrawell's senior year, we still had a stretch-4. It was Battier. Singler's senior season had Kelly as a stretch-4, and still a shortage of wings with Irving's injury. And junior-year Dunleavy WAS the stretch-4 (Duhon, Williams, and Jones at the guard/wing spots and Boozer at C).

That is not to say that Tatum won't play SF. As you said, it will likely come down to whether he feels the starters are better with Giles in or with Jones in. Either way, that sixth guy will get 25+ mpg.


Grant Hill started at the 3 in 1994, with Tony Lang at the 4.

Mike Dunleavy started at the 3 in 2001, with Shane Battier at the 4.

Kyle Singler started at the 3 in 2010, with Lance Thomas at the 4.

Three small forward in the 6-8,6-9 range and three teams that advanced to the NCAA title game.

So, there are precedents.

I'm sick as a dog, laid up in bed. Debated whether or not I should even post.

Yes, I meant sophomore year Dunleavy, not junior year. Should have said junior/senior year Kyle Singler. Could have also said junior/senior year Carrawell, for that matter.

Clearly there were more precedents that I did not come up with.


Again, I don't think all of those examples are relevant (or appropriate in one case). Nobody is saying we haven't played a tall guy at SF. The discussion is whether we would choose to play a tall guy at SF when we have suitable options to push him to PF.

1994: This was an issue of a shortage of quality perimeter players (though not to the degree that we saw in 2010 obviously).
2001: as was the case in 2000, we still had a stretch 4. It was just Battier and not Dunleavy (as in 2000 it was Battier and not Carrawell). You can only start one stretch-4 at a time.
2010: This was the most extreme example of a shortage of perimeter players. We had, literally, 4 guys who were perimeter players. And one of those was an 18-year-old who skipped his senior season and missed the entire summer trying to finish up high school coursework in order to be eligible. Heck, we were so short on bodies that Kelly actually played a few minutes at SF.

When Coach K has had comparable options inside and outside, he's tended to lean towards the smaller lineup with a SF at PF. If Giles (or Bolden, but more likely Giles) presents Coach K with a situation where he feels our starting lineup is best with Tatum at SF, he'll do it. But Coach K has tended to push his 6'8" SFs to PF except when doing so leaves us thin on the wings.

Your last paragraph here is something I mentioned in my original post.

If Giles, when he returns, is a much stronger option than Matt Jones, I think Coach K will choose to go with a frontcourt of Tatum, Giles, and Jefferson. But Giles and Tatum will both have to be much stronger options than Matt Jones. I think there is a pretty good chance this happens.

[OldPhiKap]

Matt is leading the team in +/- and K loves what he brings to the team. Matt will be hard to knock out of that starting role.

[DukieInBrasil]

Matt is leading the team in +/- and K loves what he brings to the team. Matt will be hard to knock out of that starting role.

totes agreed. It already looks like Tatum is gonna push Jackson to the bench. Bolden's not taking anybody's spot anytime soon. Giles will (in all likelihood) not be inserted into the right away, and in all likelihood won't be ready to start until well into the ACC schedule, if indeed he ever does. Giles has gotten rave reviews, but hasn't played in over a year. I have a hard time seeing how he knocks either Sr. starter out of their spots. Allen is a trusted upperclassman so as long as he's healthy, he'll start. Kennard has been on fire, and if he continues to play anywhere close to this good, it's hard to see him coming out of the starting lineup. Could Giles replace Tatum? Maybe. Could Giles come off the bench? Maybe.

[CDu]

Good point, but you left out junior year Kyle Singler. I think that worked pretty well.


I'm not trying to disparage Jones as a defender, in fact i think he's very good. My response was to the assertion that our perimeter D is porous and that we're susceptible to quick guards. So yeah, Matt stops penetration by wings, but doesn't do anything to prevent quick guards from getting past him. We don't really have anyone who can, although Frank comes closest. Although we'll get blown past by guards, it shouldn't be the end of the defensive world, 5 fingers, 1 fist and all. Jones is a critical component of that, he can help limit damage after initial perimeter breakdown. If the issue is penetration, then pointing to Jones isn't the solution, using the fundamentals of team defense is.
And CDU misread my comment, and then claimed i said something i didn't.

With all due respect, I don't think I misread your post. Here is the post I referenced (and incorrectly attributed to Troublemaker, oops!):


Matt is an excellent defender and makes our defense better, but he is not particularly gifted at stopping penetration from the backcourt. If he's so crucial, and our backcourt porousness is our only true weakness, then what's he doing?

I disagree with your assessment that Jones isn't good defending dribble penetration. I think he IS good at it - even against quicker guards. I used the term "perimeter defender" as shorthand for "defender against dribble penetration"). I think he is the best on the team at it. So my point was that having him on the floor makes us less susceptible to dribble penetration. It does not completely eliminate said risk (because others are weak at it). But he helps, and I think he helps a lot. Without him, I think our defense of dribble penetration gets much worse.

So where did I claim you said something that you didn't say? Did you not say that he was not good at defending dribble penetration?

[kAzE]

I know it's pointless for me to point out how inane it is to argue about lineup decisions . . . but come on guys. Matt and Luke are leading the team in minutes played, and I really doubt that is going to change, even when Harry Giles comes back.

Yes, Matt has a lot of limitations to his game, but he brings a few things to the table (leadership, experience, lock down individual defense) that no one else on the team can exactly replicate. There's probably at least 8 more talented guys on this roster, but at some point, there are diminishing returns on giving a ton of minutes to scorers who have a lot of overlap in what they can do for this team.

I don't pretend to know what Coach K will do, and he probably doesn't even know yet. But for the record, I'd be a little surprised if Matt came off the bench. We have 3 captains, but Matt is the leader of this team.

[DukieInBrasil]

With all due respect, I don't think I misread your post. Here is the post I referenced (and incorrectly attributed to Troublemaker, oops!):



I disagree with your assessment that Jones isn't good defending dribble penetration. I think he IS good at it - even against quicker guards. I used the term "perimeter defender" as shorthand for "defender against dribble penetration"). I think he is the best on the team at it. So my point was that having him on the floor makes us less susceptible to dribble penetration. It does not completely eliminate said risk (because others are weak at it). But he helps, and I think he helps a lot. Without him, I think our defense of dribble penetration gets much worse.

So where did I claim you said something that you didn't say? Did you not say that he was not good at defending dribble penetration?

"if Jones is a really good defender why is our perimeter defense still a problem?" is what you said. "If he's so crucial, and our backcourt porousness is our only true weakness, then what's he doing?" is what i said. Maybe it's just a argument over semantics, but my question was an attempt to get the original post to explain how they thought Jones was improving the bad thing that our defense was doing badly. You obviously have a different view of Jones' capability at preventing penetration than i do. And you may be right that there are no better options on this Duke team. It seems that we both agree that the Duke defense should not revolve entirely around the ability of any one player to do any one thing, but that the ability of the team to execute as a group is more important.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

I know it's pointless for me to point out how inane it is to argue about lineup decisions . . . but come on guys. Matt and Luke are leading the team in minutes played, and I really doubt that is going to change, even when Harry Giles comes back.

Yes, Matt has a lot of limitations to his game, but he brings a few things to the table (leadership, experience, lock down individual defense) that no one else on the team can exactly replicate. There's probably at least 8 more talented guys on this roster, but at some point, there are diminishing returns on giving a ton of minutes to scorers. He and Amile are the guys who hold our defense together. I don't pretend to know what Coach K will do, and he probably doesn't even know yet. But for the record, I'd be a little surprised if Matt came off the bench. We have 3 captains, but Matt is the leader of this team.
I agree with nearly everything you're saying but take issue with the last bit. I really think 5th year senior Amile is the de facto leader of this team. Not taking anything away from Matt. He is a leader. But this is Amile's team.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I know it's pointless for me to point out how inane it is to argue about lineup decisions . . . but come on guys. Matt and Luke are leading the team in minutes played, and I really doubt that is going to change, even when Harry Giles comes back.

Yes, Matt has a lot of limitations to his game, but he brings a few things to the table (leadership, experience, lock down individual defense) that no one else on the team can exactly replicate. There's probably at least 8 more talented guys on this roster, but at some point, there are diminishing returns on giving a ton of minutes to scorers. He and Amile are the guys who hold our defense together. I don't pretend to know what Coach K will do, and he probably doesn't even know yet. But for the record, I'd be a little surprised if Matt came off the bench. We have 3 captains, but Matt is the leader of this team.

Agreed with everything, except the "leader of this team" comment. I think that is Amile. He's got the most games, most minutes, and most points under his belt. He's the most vocal. He anchors the backcourt. And he's the most emotional. I understand that emotional doesn't equal #1 leader, but it helps in his case.

A line-up of healthy Grayson, Kennard, Matt, Tatum, and Amile provides just a great balance between offense and defense. I wouldn't change anything unless Giles gets his groove back quicker than expected and dominates like he did with Team USA.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I agree with nearly everything you're saying but take issue with the last bit. I really think 5th year senior Amile is the de facto leader of this team. Not taking anything away from Matt. He is a leader. But this is Amile's team.

Too funny. Looks like we're on the same page.

[kAzE]

I agree with nearly everything you're saying but take issue with the last bit. I really think 5th year senior Amile is the de facto leader of this team. Not taking anything away from Matt. He is a leader. But this is Amile's team.

I could be wrong, but I remember reading quotes from both players and coaches last year about how Matt really was the leader of the team. Amile has become a lot more vocal this year (and obviously really stepped up his level of play), but Matt was known for his vocal leadership on the court and in practice as early as his sophomore year.

[CDu]

"if Jones is a really good defender why is our perimeter defense still a problem?" is what you said. "If he's so crucial, and our backcourt porousness is our only true weakness, then what's he doing?" is what i said. Maybe it's just a argument over semantics, but my question was an attempt to get the original post to explain how they thought Jones was improving the bad thing that our defense was doing badly. You obviously have a different view of Jones' capability at preventing penetration than i do. And you may be right that there are no better options on this Duke team. It seems that we both agree that the Duke defense should not revolve entirely around the ability of any one player to do any one thing, but that the ability of the team to execute as a group is more important.

Then it appears I understood your question exactly correctly. And my response was exactly explaining one way in which Jones helps us do better at the thing we do badly. Because without him we would do that thing even worse. This isn't a dichotomous thing, good/bad. There are gradations of bad. My point was that without Jones we would be even worse against dribble penetration.

The ability of the team to execute team defense is of course most important. But good team defense is much easier when you have fewer guys who struggle against dribble penetration. To some degree a defense is still limited by its individual parts. The fewer weak individual parts you have, the easier it is to have a good team defense. The more liabilities you have, the more your team defense is put in chase/recover mode. And chase/recover mode is on average a negative position to be in, no matter how good your team defensive principles are. Good teams can to some degree reduce the damage, but on average even the best team defenses are going to suffer if they have players who get beat off the dribble.

We struggle with quicker guards. Jones is our best defender against quicker guards. Take him out and we would struggle even more against quicker guards. We would struggle more defensively in other ways, too. But in response to your question, his presence makes us less susceptible to quicker guards' dribble penetration than we would be without him on the floor.

[luvdahops]

I could be wrong, but I remember reading quotes from both players and coaches last year about how Matt really was the leader of the team. Amile has become a lot more vocal this year (and obviously really stepped up his level of play), but Matt was known for his vocal leadership on the court and in practice as early as his sophomore year.

Amile was injured most of last season, which necessarily limited his opportunity to be a team leader. At a minimum on the court, but also likely in practice and the locker room. Prior to his injury, Amile seemed every bit the team leader Matt was last year, if not more so, and clearly seems like the leader so far this season.

[CDu]

Amile was injured most of last season, which necessarily limited his opportunity to be a team leader. At a minimum on the court, but also likely in practice and the locker room. Prior to his injury, Amile seemed every bit the team leader Matt was last year, if not more so, and clearly seems like the leader so far this season.

Yeah I think last year's team was Jones' team. You could see it in the win at UNC. Whether that has carried over with the new team and return of Jefferson, who knows?

[Edouble]

I could be wrong, but I remember reading quotes from both players and coaches last year about how Matt really was the leader of the team. Amile has become a lot more vocal this year (and obviously really stepped up his level of play), but Matt was known for his vocal leadership on the court and in practice as early as his sophomore year.

My $0.02...
It would be hard for me to watch the Florida game without coming away with the impression that this is Amile's team.

[arnie]

I think we all agree that if Giles comes back healthy, starters are likely Giles, Jefferson, Tatum, Jones, Kennard and Allen. So it becomes a decision by K (probably changing each game) as to which of his 6 starters doesn't.

Of course, we could explain to refs that we have 6 starters, just live with it.

[Pghdukie]

Or perhaps the winner of the bottle toss game at the end of the bench can dictate who's next in line for PT !

[El_Diablo]

Or perhaps the winner of the bottle toss game at the end of the bench can dictate who's next in line for PT !

Jeter already won that one.

https://twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/790190652512493572/video/1

[uh_no]

Jeter already won that one.

https://twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/790190652512493572/video/1

my favorite part of this is that express written consent now takes place over twitter....

[Kedsy]

A line-up of healthy Grayson, Kennard, Matt, Tatum, and Amile provides just a great balance between offense and defense. I wouldn't change anything unless Giles gets his groove back quicker than expected and dominates like he did with Team USA.

I agree that your lineup is a pretty good balance between offense and defense, though I think it's a bit tilted toward the offensive end. There are undoubtedly other, probably even more well-balanced lineups that include Harry. I think it's possible some people around here are overestimating Jayson's defensive abilities based on a total of 49 career minutes. I also think a small lineup like yours might have trouble defending big teams like Purdue or UNC.

I wonder whether your apparent assumption that Harry will take weeks or months to "get his groove back" is valid or not. I haven't heard any credible evidence as to what "quicker than expected" would even be, at least if we take that to mean what the staff expects.

I believe that by the start of ACC season (12/31) we'll have at least 6 and as many as 8 players who "deserve" to start. Who will actually start depends on who Coach K thinks are our best five guys. The tricky part, of course, is the definition of "best." In the past, Coach K has had, on occasion, a definition that didn't necessarily jibe with that of the majority of this board.

[azzefkram]

Jones is our best defender against quicker guards. Take him out and we would struggle even more against quicker guards. We would struggle more defensively in other ways, too.

I'm probably going to regret this, but since that hasn't stopped me in the past why let it now. I think Matt is a great defender at the 3 but as he branches out from there his effectiveness drops fairly significantly. Off the ball D will always be a huge plus for Matt but on the ball he struggles as he moves away from the 3. I think you may be correct in that we would struggle even more against quicker guards if we were replacing Matt with another guard, but in the lineup being bandied about (Harry, Amile, Jayson, Luke and Grayson) we would be replacing him with a big. A front court of Harry, Amile and Jayson has the potential to erase a lot of errors. They would also have depth behind them in Bolden and Jeter which is something of a novelty for us.

We would definitely miss all the little non-stat stuff that Matt brings but Luke does a good job in that department (not as good as Matt, but respectable). I think at the end of the day it is a bit of a moot point. Matt's going to play a boatload of minutes. If Harry is healthy, I think he plays all the minutes he can handle.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Man, there have been a lot of misunderstandings and miscommunication on this thread. Usually, DBR is only this snarky after a loss.

Really excited about what this team can do!

[CDu]

I'm probably going to regret this, but since that hasn't stopped me in the past why let it now. I think Matt is a great defender at the 3 but as he branches out from there his effectiveness drops fairly significantly. Off the ball D will always be a huge plus for Matt but on the ball he struggles as he moves away from the 3. I think you may be correct in that we would struggle even more against quicker guards if we were replacing Matt with another guard, but in the lineup being bandied about (Harry, Amile, Jayson, Luke and Grayson) we would be replacing him with a big. A front court of Harry, Amile and Jayson has the potential to erase a lot of errors. They would also have depth behind them in Bolden and Jeter which is something of a novelty for us.

We would definitely miss all the little non-stat stuff that Matt brings but Luke does a good job in that department (not as good as Matt, but respectable). I think at the end of the day it is a bit of a moot point. Matt's going to play a boatload of minutes. If Harry is healthy, I think he plays all the minutes he can handle.

I certainly agree that Jones is most effective against 3s (and smaller 4s). I disagree on the degree of falloff for him against guards.

While I agree that a lineup of Giles/Jefferson/Tatum would help around the rim, I think it remains to be seen if that interior edge would be enough to address the dropoff on the perimeter. Remember: having multiple bigs on the floor makes it that much easier to get an iso of our big on their guards on the perimeter.

But, ultimately I agree that the discussion is moot. Jones will play a lot regardless.

[sagegrouse]

As a local, I've never considered The Garden a "neutral" site for us...even when playing St. John's or Syracuse. Technically neutral based on location, I guess, but we've always filled the arena pretty well. (And, in fact, the Meadowlands as well.)

I did wonder at times (if my memory is correct) why we didn't have the band with us in the past like it was this week. Maybe finances or timing...

I have no knowledge, inside or otherwise, but is it possible we have a pep band consisting of alums living in New York? Those didn't look like students.

[sagegrouse]

I'm probably going to regret this, but since that hasn't stopped me in the past why let it now. I think Matt is a great defender at the 3 but as he branches out from there his effectiveness drops fairly significantly. Off the ball D will always be a huge plus for Matt but on the ball he struggles as he moves away from the 3. I think you may be correct in that we would struggle even more against quicker guards if we were replacing Matt with another guard, but in the lineup being bandied about (Harry, Amile, Jayson, Luke and Grayson) we would be replacing him with a big. A front court of Harry, Amile and Jayson has the potential to erase a lot of errors. They would also have depth behind them in Bolden and Jeter which is something of a novelty for us.

We would definitely miss all the little non-stat stuff that Matt brings but Luke does a good job in that department (not as good as Matt, but respectable). I think at the end of the day it is a bit of a moot point. Matt's going to play a boatload of minutes. If Harry is healthy, I think he plays all the minutes he can handle.

How about this as a raison d'etre for Matt. There is only one ball, and he is the only player on the wing and in the backcourt who doesn't want it.

[NYBri]

Does everyone realize how a conversation about whether it's going to be:

Matt, Allen, Kennard, Tatum, and Amile starting...with Giles, Jackson and Boulden coming off the bench...

or

Allen, Kennard, Tatum, Giles and Amile starting with Jones, Boulden and Jackson coming off the bench...

is beyond our wildest dreams?

Damn, this is fun.

[jipops]

Does everyone realize how a conversation about whether it's going to be:

Matt, Allen, Kennard, Tatum, and Amile starting...with Giles, Jackson and Boulden coming off the bench...

or

Allen, Kennard, Tatum, Giles and Amile starting with Jones, Boulden and Jackson coming off the bench...

is beyond our wildest dreams?

Damn, this is fun.

I'm just waiting for someone to get Matt Johnes' name wrong.

[BD80]

I'm just waiting for someone to get Matt Johnes' name wrong.

It is Math Jones, check the +/- stats

[Edouble]

I think we all agree that if Giles comes back healthy, starters are likely Giles, Jefferson, Tatum, Jones, Kennard and Allen. So it becomes a decision by K (probably changing each game) as to which of his 6 starters doesn't.

Of course, we could explain to refs that we have 6 starters, just live with it.

All I know about 6 starters is that Shammond Williams cried to Gut in the tunnel on his way to the court, and Ademola Okulaja beats himself.

[westwall]

I have no knowledge, inside or otherwise, but is it possible we have a pep band consisting of alums living in New York? Those didn't look like students.

The Duke pep band at the Florida game was exclusively Alums who live in and near NYC -- or so the bass drummer told me.

[BandAlum83]

It's a 30 second shot clock, not a 35 second play clock... they've had a 30 second shot clock for a couple years now.

I knew that, but thank you so much for the correction. I'm old, I guess. I still find myself referencing my NationsBank account also.

[BandAlum83]

I cannot comment on '94 and '01 (I was a little boy), but with 2010, it was Singler-at-the-3-by-necessity. Playing Singler at the 4 means playing Andre Dawkins in the backcourt, who as a freshman wasn't ready for starter minutes (he wasn't ever really ready for starter minutes). Our backcourt was so thin.

This year? We have 5 legitimate perimeter players that will all be part of the rotation. Unlike 2010, Coach K actually has choices. Hence, he will field the best team. I think the best team includes Tatum at the 4, because no coach loves stretch 4s more than Coach K and no coach is better at utilizing a stretch 4 than Coach K. One of the biggest issues with our frontcourt is that no one can hit a jump shot. Amile doesn't try to shoot them and I haven't seen anything from Jeter nor Bolden (in fairness, no one has seen anything from Bolden. But I doubt he's a mid-range kinda guy). Giles could, but we'll confirm that when we see that.

In conclusion, my hypothesis is that if Coach K has options, he will play a stretch 4.


Maybe I'm not following well, but it seems unless Tatum spends some (significant) time at the 3, since he will in all likelihood be playing 32-35 minutes, that will only leave Harry and Amile with 40 minutes to split at the 5 and another 6 minutes at the 4. Do you really think Harry and Amile are 23 minute per game players? (Assuming all healthy, of course). That's not even factoring in Bolden.

This is why I'm in agreement with the idea that we will see significant minutes with Harry, Amile, jayson, Luke and Grayson on the floor at the same time.

Penetration on defense? Rim protection in the paint.

[Indoor66]

I knew that, but thank you so much for the correction. I'm old, I guess. I still find myself referencing my NationsBank account also.

Think you are old? I call mine my NCNB account.

[DukeDevil]

A late thought leftover from the Maine game...but I'd like to submit that our all big lineup be referred to as "the brute squad"

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qmJ2GVOEVFI

[Saratoga2]

In total agreement, Kennard lately has been the more or less consistent key to the whole offense and its rhythm. Well down the road as Giles gets up to speed it would not surprise me to see Grayson, Kennard, Tatum, Amile, Giles as the usual starting five, with ample time for the other three key players, and a few to several minutes for Jeter.


My view as well. You can argue who should be the 6th through 8th players off the bench but Matt, Frank and Marquise should probably fit that list as needed.

[Saratoga2]

totes agreed. It already looks like Tatum is gonna push Jackson to the bench. Bolden's not taking anybody's spot anytime soon. Giles will (in all likelihood) not be inserted into the right away, and in all likelihood won't be ready to start until well into the ACC schedule, if indeed he ever does. Giles has gotten rave reviews, but hasn't played in over a year. I have a hard time seeing how he knocks either Sr. starter out of their spots. Allen is a trusted upperclassman so as long as he's healthy, he'll start. Kennard has been on fire, and if he continues to play anywhere close to this good, it's hard to see him coming out of the starting lineup. Could Giles replace Tatum? Maybe. Could Giles come off the bench? Maybe.

Giles surely won't replace anyone at starter in December but if he really shows himself to be a lottery pick it is hard to see him not starting later in the year. Perhaps what we would give away in penetration, we would make up in rim protection and rebounding.

Nobody on the team could stop Florida's quickest guard from getting inside. What seemed to hurt us even more was Florida's 3 point shooting, particularly in the second half. In that regard, you could say that we didn't have what it took on the floor to stop that aspect of the game, even with Tatum, Jones and Kennard on the floor, all of our guys being 6'5" or taller.

[Channing]

I know its wishful thinking, but with the depth, I'd love to see K go to a Louisville style full court press periodically knowing that guys can give a burst of energy then grab a breather.

[duke74]

The Duke pep band at the Florida game was exclusively Alums who live in and near NYC -- or so the bass drummer told me.

This is actually pretty cool. For anyone in the know, do they get together regularly to rehearse or is it an ad hoc thing when we come to town? Either way, another great touch point with Duke (and other alums in the network).

And, maybe its a scale thing, but do any other locations have similar? I would assume it would be dependent on the alum demographic base in the area and whether Duke plays there. For example, would LV and/or LA band alums be in LV for our game?

[Troublemaker]

I know its wishful thinking, but with the depth, I'd love to see K go to a Louisville style full court press periodically knowing that guys can give a burst of energy then grab a breather.

Actually, I think the zone press will become a staple of the team eventually.

In the Maine postgame presser, Coach K said he messed up the freshmen in the first half by implementing the zone press in their debut game instead of just keeping it simple. But that's a tell that he's anxious to get back to practicing and implementing the zone press, imo.

Duke played a lot of zone press towards the end of the 2015 championship season. And Villanova played a lot of zone press last season (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6FTd7SQq_o) when they went on to win the championship.

I just think it's a tactic that Coach K has picked up on as being effective in this era for teams that have the athletic talent and depth to use it. In the freedom of movement era, one of the things you want to do is get the ball out of the hands of the opposing team's primary ball-handler and force him to work to get it back. That's what a zone press can do.

[devildeac]

Think you are old? I call mine my NCNB account.

I thought you were old enough to be dealing with the aes rude and the denarius. :p ;)

[OldPhiKap]

I thought you were old enough to be dealing with the aes rude and the denarius. :p ;)

"You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold."

Man, THAT was a stem-winder speech. I remember it well.

[uh_no]

Actually, I think the zone press will become a staple of the team eventually.

In the Maine postgame presser, Coach K said he messed up the freshmen in the first half by implementing the zone press in their debut game instead of just keeping it simple. But that's a tell that he's anxious to get back to practicing and implementing the zone press, imo.

Duke played a lot of zone press towards the end of the 2015 championship season. And Villanova played a lot of zone press last season (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6FTd7SQq_o) when they went on to win the championship.

I just think it's a tactic that Coach K has picked up on as being effective in this era for teams that have the athletic talent and depth to use it. In the freedom of movement era, one of the things you want to do is get the ball out of the hands of the opposing team's primary ball-handler and force him to work to get it back. That's what a zone press can do.

not to mention UL two years before that.

It's almost a no-downside tactic IF your team is conditioned enough and IF the other team isn't getting easy buckets out of it. Obviously, those are two pretty big ifs. So you end up with two outcomes. Either the opposing team beatsd the press, and then suddenly has to run an offense with 20s on the clock (usually less as the teams "reset" after getting it into the frontcourt), or they make a mistake. Most opposition isn't good enough to consistently break down the press in such a way to get an easy bucket. Further, i think running a press break is almost as taxing on the offense as it is on the defense, so you're taking it out of the other guys too.

At least some part of me thinks that our increased usage of the press *is* a result of that game against UL 3 years ago. The amount we gave up simply getting the ball across half court was enormous.

[Indoor66]

I thought you were old enough to be dealing with the aes rude and the denarius.

Ouch! The pain is that I resemble that remark. :o:p:cool:

[FerryFor50]

not to mention UL two years before that.

It's almost a no-downside tactic IF your team is conditioned enough and IF the other team isn't getting easy buckets out of it. Obviously, those are two pretty big ifs. So you end up with two outcomes. Either the opposing team beatsd the press, and then suddenly has to run an offense with 20s on the clock (usually less as the teams "reset" after getting it into the frontcourt), or they make a mistake. Most opposition isn't good enough to consistently break down the press in such a way to get an easy bucket. Further, i think running a press break is almost as taxing on the offense as it is on the defense, so you're taking it out of the other guys too.

At least some part of me thinks that our increased usage of the press *is* a result of that game against UL 3 years ago. The amount we gave up simply getting the ball across half court was enormous.

It's also a bonus to have a team that is nearly 10 deep. That allows you to absorb any potential foul trouble with an aggressive, pressing defense.

[OldPhiKap]

Ouch! The pain is that I resemble that remark. :o:p:cool:

I'm all Bitcoin, all the time.

I hope drills go well, and that all three freshmen get their legs under them for the ACC conference season starting soon! Time to turn the amps up to eleven.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I agree that your lineup is a pretty good balance between offense and defense, though I think it's a bit tilted toward the offensive end. There are undoubtedly other, probably even more well-balanced lineups that include Harry. I think it's possible some people around here are overestimating Jayson's defensive abilities based on a total of 49 career minutes. I also think a small lineup like yours might have trouble defending big teams like Purdue or UNC.

I agree, although I am one of those folks celebrating his D. I came in with the impression that Tatum was going to be a huge liability on D, ala Jabari. But in his first game, he's clearly trying and not slow footed. So color me impressed thus far. There will be plenty of defensive breakdowns after the first 49 minutes, but I like what I've seen thus far.


I wonder whether your apparent assumption that Harry will take weeks or months to "get his groove back" is valid or not. I haven't heard any credible evidence as to what "quicker than expected" would even be, at least if we take that to mean what the staff expects.

It's a well-known fact that athletes normally need a year of play after coming back from ACL surgery to get back to their original selves. It's a mix between confidence, caution, and gaining strength/flexibility. Furthermore, Giles hasn't played competitive basketball in 13 months (probably 14 months once he's back). Lastly, the coaching staff will take a very cautious approach with Giles. Risking Giles to another knee injury is in no one's interest. So, I believe two things: 1) we will not see vintage Giles this year. However, an 80% Giles is arguably better than 95% of the ACC right now and 2) the coaching staff will limit Giles's minutes moreso than Giles or fans would like.


I believe that by the start of ACC season (12/31) we'll have at least 6 and as many as 8 players who "deserve" to start. Who will actually start depends on who Coach K thinks are our best five guys. The tricky part, of course, is the definition of "best." In the past, Coach K has had, on occasion, a definition that didn't necessarily jibe with that of the majority of this board.

Completely agree. Right now, we have 6 legitimate starters (not including Bolden or Jeter). Like you, I think Bolden and Giles could easily join that list.

[kAzE]

It's a well-known fact that athletes normally need a year of play after coming back from ACL surgery to get back to their original selves. It's a mix between confidence, caution, and gaining strength/flexibility. Furthermore, Giles hasn't played competitive basketball in 13 months (probably 14 months once he's back). Lastly, the coaching staff will take a very cautious approach with Giles. Risking Giles to another knee injury is in no one's interest. So, I believe two things: 1) we will not see vintage Giles this year. However, an 80% Giles is arguably better than 95% of the ACC right now and 2) the coaching staff will limit Giles's minutes moreso than Giles or fans would like.

Great post. As someone who plays basketball regularly coming off a recent knee injury/surgery, I can somewhat relate to Harry's situation, although mine wasn't a ligament tear; I had cartilage damage, which required micro fracture surgery. I had the surgery almost 12 months ago, and even working pretty hard rehabbing, I've only recently felt comfortable playing 3 on 3 half court. And even then, I'm still favoring the other leg too much and don't have anything close to the agility and explosiveness I had prior to the injury.

Major knee surgeries take a long time to come back from fully. I doubt we will see Harry at his best while he's still at Duke, but as you said, an 80% Harry Giles is still REALLY good. I think we are already good enough to win the national championship with what we have, so anything that Harry brings is just icing on top.

[MChambers]

One additional thought on the game that I haven't seen in this thread (or perhaps I read it days ago and forgot it): it was interesting to see how often Duke used Tatum to get the ball into the frontcourt after made baskets. This may have been because he was our "4" (I know, I know) and thus had a defender who wasn't used to covering a ballhandler, but still. Nice to see that Duke has so many options to break pressure.

[Lar77]

I agree that your lineup is a pretty good balance between offense and defense, though I think it's a bit tilted toward the offensive end. There are undoubtedly other, probably even more well-balanced lineups that include Harry. I think it's possible some people around here are overestimating Jayson's defensive abilities based on a total of 49 career minutes. I also think a small lineup like yours might have trouble defending big teams like Purdue or UNC.

I wonder whether your apparent assumption that Harry will take weeks or months to "get his groove back" is valid or not. I haven't heard any credible evidence as to what "quicker than expected" would even be, at least if we take that to mean what the staff expects.

I believe that by the start of ACC season (12/31) we'll have at least 6 and as many as 8 players who "deserve" to start. Who will actually start depends on who Coach K thinks are our best five guys. The tricky part, of course, is the definition of "best." In the past, Coach K has had, on occasion, a definition that didn't necessarily jibe with that of the majority of this board.

Agree completely with this. One of K's strengths is his willingness to adapt. improvise, overcome (Yessir Gunny Highway). He rewards effort in practice. And we've seen him go small when others would go big and vice versa. Based on early results, the only ones I don't foresee starting are Vrank, Delaurier, and White (plus Robinson etc). Unlikely Jeter will see much time, but he has shown to be useful, especially in spots.

So we get to the 8 who will get 15+ minutes per game. It will be situational and how we want to match up. Bolden opposite Meeks is a different look/style than Giles or Jefferson, but all 3 will work.

The wild card is Giles. I think/hope that he will get up to speed very quickly.

As someone pointed out earlier, Jones, Jefferson, Kennard, and Allen have been playing a lot of minutes up to now and will be playing a lot of minutes when we are at full strength.

[BD80]

I thought you were old enough to be dealing with the aes rude and the denarius. :p ;)

Ah, the good ol' days. I remember my first aes rude, it WAS the first aes rude. And I WISH I had had a denarius.