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View Full Version : MBB: Duke vs. Florida (Tue, 12/6, 9:30 pm, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread



JBDuke
12-05-2016, 12:06 AM
Duke makes their annual December trip to New York City to play Florida. Put your pre-game and in-game thoughts here.

OldPhiKap
12-05-2016, 06:20 AM
"drain the swamp"

LGD!!!

flyingdutchdevil
12-05-2016, 07:59 AM
...what makes FL dangerous? They aren't a good 3pt shooting team (31.5% on the season. Only one player shoots better than 35%). They have one player who can rebound (John Egbundu, at 7.5pt per game). No player scorers more than 13ppg (3 do score more than 10ppg, though).

Sounds like these boys like defense (#8, kenpom). But is that it?

Not saying Duke will win, but Duke just looks so much better. And now, with big boy Marques in the middle, our biggest issues (defense and stopping penetration) are severely helped.

mgtr
12-05-2016, 08:02 AM
"drain the swamp"

LGD!!!

Looks as though Alabama drained about half of it on Saturday, we just need to finish the job!

OldPhiKap
12-05-2016, 08:04 AM
Looks as though Alabama drained about half of it on Saturday, we just need to finish the job!

The scary thing is -- Alabama can play a whole lot better than they did too.

whereinthehellami
12-05-2016, 08:26 AM
...what makes FL dangerous? They aren't a good 3pt shooting team (31.5% on the season. Only one player shoots better than 35%). They have one player who can rebound (John Egbundu, at 7.5pt per game). No player scorers more than 13ppg (3 do score more than 10ppg, though).

Sounds like these boys like defense (#8, kenpom). But is that it?

Not saying Duke will win, but Duke just looks so much better. And now, with big boy Marques in the middle, our biggest issues (defense and stopping penetration) are severely helped.

They don't particularly shoot well from 2 either (44%). Decent FT shooting team though (76%). I haven't seen them play but like you said it sounds like defense and an attacking offense. Hopefully Bolden is able to go, so we can see how having a rim protector will look.

OldPhiKap
12-05-2016, 08:29 AM
Two things that I know make them dangerous:

1. They are playing Duke on a big stage. We will get their best shot.
2. We are still working in two players, and have an uncertain line-up.

Six
12-05-2016, 08:33 AM
So glad to see Tatum and Bolden playing again. Not only excited to see these guys continue to integrate into the team, but fascinated to see how Coach K manages the team and playing time. Florida is for real and certainly has ability to beat Duke tomorrow so I think we will see Coach K overall plan for the team begin to crystalize. While Coach K does plant seeds (see Allen 2015), generally he puts the most talented players on the floor (with limited match up tweaks).

I assume the starting point is the line-up and rotations we saw for MSU, URI, KU and even PSU games. To recap, Jeter averaged 14 minutes in those games (6 to 26 min) and rest of bench (Vrank, DeLaurier) less than 4 min. I think it's safe to assume Jeter is as far as we'll go and expect his minutes will decrease pretty much in line with Bolden's increase. Can Bolden play 10 minutes? 20? Sure this will depend on match-ups but will be surprised to see Bolden play 20 and completely leave Jeter on the bench. That said, can't see Jeter playing more than 10 minutes. Combined, see them playing 20-25 minutes - to some extent time capped by Tatum time at 4 - see below.

More interesting is Tatum. Sat was easy. He played 20 minutes and his playing time was seemingly impacted by his cramp which seemed to happen early in 2nd half and him seating resulted in those odd late 2nd half line-ups (Jefferson as PG). Where do his minutes come from against FL and going forward? For Florida, Saturday's injuries suggest they will come from Jackson and Allen but also think rotations will give us a hint of the future. I like Jackson but feel like it's got to come from him (absent select match-ups). I expect Allen will ready to go for a game at garden against top 20 team which is also his home state school. How much will Coach K limit Allen's minutes in such a game? I can't see K sitting Allen, Kennard or Jones in any meaningful way - so where do Tatum's minutes come from? Tatum at the 4? Probably for a bit but that's not going to be enough - IMO. I've wondered all fall how rotations will go and excited to finally start to see.

whereinthehellami
12-05-2016, 08:47 AM
Florida lost to Gonzaga by 5 and beat Miami by 9. I didn't see either game but after looking at the boxes it looks like they stayed in the game against the Zags by creating TOs (18). FL was 2-19 from 3 in that game, got out rebounded, and only lost by 5. The Zags also shot 52% from 2 and 44% from 3, so that is impressive to only lose by 5. FL only had 9 assists to 8 TOs, smells like a lot of ISO. They sound like a scrappy team.

In the 9 point victory over Miami, Florida forced 13 TOs and held Miami to a poor shooting day (38% from 2, 29% from 3, and 67% FT [good ft defense]). While Florida got out rebounded again by 4 and only had 11 assists to 9 TOs, they did block 11 shots (they blocked 6 against the Zags). Again, it sounds like a swarming defense and ISO on offense.

It should be a good test for the Duke team. I like the odds if Duke matches their energy and keeps the TOs down. And on defense, prevent easy baskets, make them earn it.

Troublemaker
12-05-2016, 08:53 AM
Florida is coached by Michael White, who is the son of Duke's athletic director Kevin White.

I've seen parts of Florida games the past two seasons, and Michael is super intense on the sidelines. I haven't watched any interviews to see if there's a contrast there, but on the sidelines, he's like a young Frank Martin from KSU. Eyeballs bulgingly intense.

SCMatt33
12-05-2016, 09:07 AM
One thing not mentioned that Florida has done well so far this year is getting to the foul line. I saw it mentioned that they shoot well once they get there, but just as notable is that they get there often. They averaged 10.5 more foul shots than their opponent in the Miami and Gonzaga games. Also in the rebounding department, while they don't have someone who grabs a lot of rebounds by volume, both the team and Egbunu are top 50 in the country in OR%, so keeping them off the offensive glass will be important.

Ichabod Drain
12-05-2016, 09:09 AM
Florida lost to Gonzaga by 5 and beat Miami by 9. I didn't see either game but after looking at the boxes it looks like they stayed in the game against the Zags by creating TOs (18). FL was 2-19 from 3 in that game, got out rebounded, and only lost by 5. The Zags also shot 52% from 2 and 44% from 3, so that is impressive to only lose by 5. FL only had 9 assists to 8 TOs, smells like a lot of ISO. They sound like a scrappy team.

In the 9 point victory over Miami, Florida forced 13 TOs and held Miami to a poor shooting day (38% from 2, 29% from 3, and 67% FT [good ft defense]). While Florida got out rebounded again by 4 and only had 11 assists to 9 TOs, they did block 11 shots (they blocked 6 against the Zags). Again, it sounds like a swarming defense and ISO on offense.

It should be a good test for the Duke team. I like the odds if Duke matches their energy and keeps the TOs down. And on defense, prevent easy baskets, make them earn it.

Yea looking at their numbers on Kenpom they are 14th in the country at forcing turnovers, (about 25% of possessions) and eighth in the country at blocking shots. Looks like their attempts at shot blocking give up a lot of offensive rebounds though which Amile and Marques would have a field day with.

duke79
12-05-2016, 10:04 AM
I wonder who Alex Murphy will be rooting for?

UrinalCake
12-05-2016, 10:11 AM
Sounds like this game will be a really good test for us as we have been pretty turnover-prone and could be even more so while we work the new guys into the lineup. I predict Tatum will start as he did in the Maine game, but with Grayson and Frank back (presumably) we'll have to see whose spot he ends up taking. K is going to play the game to win, as he always does, so it will be interesting to see how he manages the lineup. I haven't watched Florida either but everything I've heard from people who have suggests they are a really solid team.

Troublemaker
12-05-2016, 10:34 AM
Yea looking at their numbers on Kenpom they are 14th in the country at forcing turnovers, (about 25% of possessions) and eighth in the country at blocking shots. Looks like their attempts at shot blocking give up a lot of offensive rebounds though which Amile and Marques would have a field day with.


Sounds like this game will be a really good test for us as we have been pretty turnover-prone and could be even more so while we work the new guys into the lineup.

Yeah, a turnover is the worst thing we can do tomorrow. Because if Duke can just get a shot up on the rim, there's a good chance our bigs can get the offensive rebound even if it misses. Also, Florida probably will have a lot of trouble scoring in the halfcourt against Duke and will need that extra boost of scoring in transition off of live-ball turnovers.

Unfortunately, as UrinalCake points out, we might be more turnover-prone than usual while working Tatum and Bolden back into the swing of things and building chemistry. I'm not expecting Duke to bring our A-game tomorrow because it's too soon, and the #12 kenpom team Florida can definitely win.

It'll be a very good test offensively for Duke's perimeter. Florida's guards are ballhawks and overall they have a very athletic team.

sagegrouse
12-05-2016, 10:45 AM
We have a ton of new talent, now all together on the floor for the first time. Jayson and Marques have practiced very little with the others. Why would we expect the team to function smoothly and effectively? I think we can be saved if Luke, Grayson and Frank shoot well, but I look for some rough edges tomorrow night.

Kindly,
Sage
'Best games I have seen at Duke? Against UNC at Wojo's farewell in 1998. Against UNC on the occasion of the Heyman-Larry Brown fight'

Edouble
12-05-2016, 10:52 AM
We have a ton of new talent, now all together on the floor for the first time. Jayson and Marques have practiced very little with the others. Why would we expect the team to function smoothly and effectively? I think we can be saved if Luke, Grayson and Frank shoot well, but I look for some rough edges tomorrow night.

Kindly,
Sage
'Best games I have seen at Duke? Against UNC at Wojo's farewell in 1998. Against UNC on the occasion of the Heyman-Larry Brown fight'

Giles maybe, but Jayson and Marques were at least playing with their teammates all summer. Duke in MSG with a huge advantage in talent? I'd be surprised if this game is close.

DavidBenAkiva
12-05-2016, 11:02 AM
Yea looking at their numbers on Kenpom they are 14th in the country at forcing turnovers, (about 25% of possessions) and eighth in the country at blocking shots. Looks like their attempts at shot blocking give up a lot of offensive rebounds though which Amile and Marques would have a field day with.

Good observation! I was going through TeamRankings (https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/florida-gators/stats)to see other stats at which they are particularly efficient or deficient.

Florida...
- has a high offensive rebounding rate (35.6%/28th in the nation) but very low defensive rebounding rate (69.5%/256th). With a very high block rate (10.9%/12th), this suggests that Florida attempts to block everything and put them in a vulnerable position on the defensive glass. Similarly, they crash the boards on offense. Jefferson, Jeter, and Bolden will have to fight for defensive boards to limit their opportunities.
- is pretty good at stealing the ball (10.0%/39th) and doesn't get their pocket picked, either (5.6%). Their turnover rate (13.6%/25th) and number of turnovers generated (20.6%/29th) further support the idea that their guards are sure handed and swipe the ball a ton.
- not so good behind the arc. The Gators shoot just 31.5% from 3 as a team (262nd in the nation).

This is all to say that Duke needs to limit dribble penetration, hold onto the basket, and control the rebounding game to win. Seems easy enough with our players, but it always comes down to execution.

JasonEvans
12-05-2016, 11:22 AM
G Seems easy enough with our players...

But which players will we have? If Allen and Jackson play (and Tatum/Bolden, of course) then this should be a fairly safe game for Duke. But, if Allen is out we could struggle. He's a junior who understands how our guards play D. Don't discount the importance of that.

Also, someone asked about who starts -- I expect it will be Jones, Allen, Kennard, Tatum, and Jefferson. Bolden and Jackson will each get 15+ minutes. I'm not sure how much we will see Jeter, likely less than 5 minutes. The other guys won't play unless we have a larger than 10 point lead.

-Jason "I'm really hoping to see the real Tatum... he wasn't himself against Maine" Evans

wilson
12-05-2016, 11:48 AM
Is there any further word on Giles' condition? Any chance we'll get to see him play tomorrow?

DavidBenAkiva
12-05-2016, 12:50 PM
But which players will we have? If Allen and Jackson play (and Tatum/Bolden, of course) then this should be a fairly safe game for Duke. But, if Allen is out we could struggle. He's a junior who understands how our guards play D. Don't discount the importance of that.

Also, someone asked about who starts -- I expect it will be Jones, Allen, Kennard, Tatum, and Jefferson. Bolden and Jackson will each get 15+ minutes. I'm not sure how much we will see Jeter, likely less than 5 minutes. The other guys won't play unless we have a larger than 10 point lead.

-Jason "I'm really hoping to see the real Tatum... he wasn't himself against Maine" Evans

I guess I am in the minority here that believes that Chase plays a larger role on the team, even with Bolden and Giles back in the fold. Here's my logic: First, the kid has earned his playing time on defense. He crashes the glass. He blocks shots. He switches out. And he's pretty good on that side of the ball. His block rate is just a tad bit higher than Jefferson, as is his offensive rebounding rate. Obviously, Jefferson is much more offensively skilled. Still, Jeter does the things that you want to see out of a young post player that is trying to work his way into the rotation. Add to that the limited playing time of late due to the foot sprain, and you see a young and improving player gaining confidence and trust from the coaching staff.

Of course, Bolden is a superior talent at the moment, and Giles most likely is too. In a normal situation, you would expect that Vrankovic and then Jeter get squeezed out the lineup as Coach K grows to trust the freshmen more and more. But this is not a normal situation. Duke has serious size and depth in the frontcourt. Between Bolden, Giles, Jefferson, Jeter, and Vrankovic, there are 5 guys for 2 spots. There could even be 6 guys for those spots if Tatum does play that stretch 4 position. That depth doesn't just mean that players are going to get squeezed for time, though. It could also mean that there's another way to play the roster.

What I've been wondering since the summer is whether Coach K tries to use a pressing D again. He hasn't been able to the past few years due to the limitations of the roster. There were too few players, lest they get too tired expending all the energy on D. But with 5 bigs, 4 guards, and a wing that can play either on the perimeter or as part of a small lineup, I wonder if Coach K asks his players to speed it up. Create more transition opportunities. Trap the guards after a made basic. Give 100% effort more often. Sub players in. Really, only Vrankovic concerns me with an up-tempo approach, and not even that much. If guys are asked to give their max for 10 minutes at a time, it could be really amazing. Let's see if Duke speeds it up throughout December as the roster returns to health.

uh_no
12-05-2016, 01:17 PM
I guess I am in the minority here that believes that Chase plays a larger role on the team, even with Bolden and Giles back in the fold. Here's my logic: First, the kid has earned his playing time on defense. He crashes the glass. He blocks shots. He switches out. And he's pretty good on that side of the ball. His block rate is just a tad bit higher than Jefferson, as is his offensive rebounding rate. Obviously, Jefferson is much more offensively skilled. Still, Jeter does the things that you want to see out of a young post player that is trying to work his way into the rotation. Add to that the limited playing time of late due to the foot sprain, and you see a young and improving player gaining confidence and trust from the coaching staff.

Of course, Bolden is a superior talent at the moment, and Giles most likely is too. In a normal situation, you would expect that Vrankovic and then Jeter get squeezed out the lineup as Coach K grows to trust the freshmen more and more. But this is not a normal situation. Duke has serious size and depth in the frontcourt. Between Bolden, Giles, Jefferson, Jeter, and Vrankovic, there are 5 guys for 2 spots. There could even be 6 guys for those spots if Tatum does play that stretch 4 position. That depth doesn't just mean that players are going to get squeezed for time, though. It could also mean that there's another way to play the roster.

What I've been wondering since the summer is whether Coach K tries to use a pressing D again. He hasn't been able to the past few years due to the limitations of the roster. There were too few players, lest they get too tired expending all the energy on D. But with 5 bigs, 4 guards, and a wing that can play either on the perimeter or as part of a small lineup, I wonder if Coach K asks his players to speed it up. Create more transition opportunities. Trap the guards after a made basic. Give 100% effort more often. Sub players in. Really, only Vrankovic concerns me with an up-tempo approach, and not even that much. If guys are asked to give their max for 10 minutes at a time, it could be really amazing. Let's see if Duke speeds it up throughout December as the roster returns to health.

Every year people suggests K will play a deeper rotation. It never happens. Yes he sometimes does new things (zone), yes this team is special....but i'm not sure playing chase more is going to happen. K doesn't give players minutes to allow them to improve, that happens at practice. Sure chase is improving, but the amount that bolden and (presumably) giles bring over chase is so enormous that the only reason to have chase out there would be to give him minutes.

Chase will have his time to shine, it's clear he's getting a lot better....but it's not this year. there's simply too much talent in front of him.

If you want to think about it from a minutes perspective, amile's minutes are not going down. K will not limit minutes of a senior captain to accommodate a sophomore who still has a lot of growing to do. Amile has played big minutes against good teams (30 v kansas, 36 v uri, 35 v MSU), and big minutes against bad teams (34 v maine). Conservatively you could assume he's going to play 30 minutes a game.

Despite your assertion that increasing depth does not decrease playing time, there are only 80 minutes available at the 4 and 5....so something has to give....and after amile we're down to 50 minutes.

If jahlil were any indication, K can play a top ranked big man freshman for 30 minutes a game....but that that mostly says is K will play freshman big men as many minutes as they can handle. Even if giles and bolden can only handle 20 a game (reasonable given bolden played 12 in just his first game back), that leaves just 10 minutes

So 10 minutes to account for ALL of chase's minutes, and all the time we might play small, which will almost assuredly be non-zero, given the 4 excellent guards we can trot out on the floor...ESPECIALLY in late game FT shooting situations.

So even in the best case, most conservative minute scenarios for the other 3 bigs, and most conservative estimate for how much we go small, chase STILL only gets 10 minutes a game.

5 minutes is more realistic.

CDu
12-05-2016, 01:30 PM
Also, someone asked about who starts -- I expect it will be Jones, Allen, Kennard, Tatum, and Jefferson. Bolden and Jackson will each get 15+ minutes. I'm not sure how much we will see Jeter, likely less than 5 minutes. The other guys won't play unless we have a larger than 10 point lead.

-Jason "I'm really hoping to see the real Tatum... he wasn't himself against Maine" Evans

Assuming Allen and Jackson play and Giles continues to sit, I think you've got it about right. I think that top 7 will each play 20+ minutes, with the group getting 190-195 minutes. I think Jeter still gets 5-10 to fill in as Bolden gets comfortable. Something along these lines:

Jefferson: 30
Tatum: 25
Kennard: 30
Allen: 30
Jones: 30
Jackson: 25
Bolden: 20-25
Jeter: 5-10

Indoor66
12-05-2016, 01:40 PM
I think Jeter will be closer to 15-17.

DukieInBrasil
12-05-2016, 01:42 PM
I guess I am in the minority here that believes that Chase plays a larger role on the team, even with Bolden and Giles back in the fold. Here's my logic: First, the kid has earned his playing time on defense. He crashes the glass. He blocks shots. He switches out. And he's pretty good on that side of the ball. His block rate is just a tad bit higher than Jefferson, as is his offensive rebounding rate. Obviously, Jefferson is much more offensively skilled. Still, Jeter does the things that you want to see out of a young post player that is trying to work his way into the rotation. Add to that the limited playing time of late due to the foot sprain, and you see a young and improving player gaining confidence and trust from the coaching staff.


I just don't see what you see. Chase is the worst F or C we have at "crashing the boards". His rebound rate is about half that of Vrank the Tank and less than half that of Javin the Javelin. His block rate is slightly better than Vrank's, and quite a bit better than Javin's. His offensive ability is extremely limited and he has poor hands so that he loses rebounds and fails to gather passes for easy buckets.
Chase has certainly improved since last year, and i hope he continues to improve so that he can be a solid contributor next year. He has already shown that he at least a somewhat reliable player in the absence of our injured frontcourt players.
I have a hard time seeing Chase getting much p.t. going forward if Bolden and Jefferson remain healthy, and when Giles returns there will be essentially 0 mpg outside of "mop-up" time for him, Vrank or Javin.

Ichabod Drain
12-05-2016, 01:42 PM
Assuming Allen and Jackson play and Giles continues to sit, I think you've got it about right. I think that top 7 will each play 20+ minutes, with the group getting 190-195 minutes. I think Jeter still gets 5-10 to fill in as Bolden gets comfortable. Something along these lines:

Jefferson: 30
Tatum: 25
Kennard: 30
Allen: 30
Jones: 30
Jackson: 25
Bolden: 20-25
Jeter: 5-10

Not sure Bolden's conditioning is up to the 20-25 min mark yet.

NYBri
12-05-2016, 01:48 PM
Assuming Allen and Jackson play and Giles continues to sit, I think you've got it about right. I think that top 7 will each play 20+ minutes, with the group getting 190-195 minutes. I think Jeter still gets 5-10 to fill in as Bolden gets comfortable. Something along these lines:

Jefferson: 30
Tatum: 25
Kennard: 30
Allen: 30
Jones: 30
Jackson: 25
Bolden: 20-25
Jeter: 5-10

And this doesn't take into account what happens when we see Giles...and, if he is healthy, we will see tons of Giles on the floor.

English
12-05-2016, 01:50 PM
Not sure Bolden's conditioning is up to the 20-25 min mark yet.

^^^This. It seemed very likely that Marques was beginning to cramp toward the latter of his 12min against Maine. Certainly the few practices between then and tomorrow night could help him get his wind back, but not by much...AND this promises to be a greater athletic test than banging with the Maine kids (pun not intended, but I didn't shy away from it).

I'd guess Bolden goes between 15-20min tomorrow night. Would love to see Jayson go all of 25-30min, but we'll see where his stamina is, too. I'd guess he ends up closer to 25 than 30.

Troublemaker
12-05-2016, 01:59 PM
Is there any further word on Giles' condition? Any chance we'll get to see him play tomorrow?

Since Harry has only recently started practicing with contact, I'd be very surprised if we saw him tomorrow. December 19th (Tennessee St) would be my guess. Weak opponent, home game, following a nice long break for final exams.

budwom
12-05-2016, 02:08 PM
Every year people suggests K will play a deeper rotation. It never happens. Yes he sometimes does new things (zone), yes this team is special...but i'm not sure playing chase more is going to happen. K doesn't give players minutes to allow them to improve, that happens at practice. Sure chase is improving, but the amount that bolden and (presumably) giles bring over chase is so enormous that the only reason to have chase out there would be to give him minutes.

Chase will have his time to shine, it's clear he's getting a lot better...but it's not this year. there's simply too much talent in front of him.

If you want to think about it from a minutes perspective, amile's minutes are not going down. K will not limit minutes of a senior captain to accommodate a sophomore who still has a lot of growing to do. Amile has played big minutes against good teams (30 v kansas, 36 v uri, 35 v MSU), and big minutes against bad teams (34 v maine). Conservatively you could assume he's going to play 30 minutes a game.

Despite your assertion that increasing depth does not decrease playing time, there are only 80 minutes available at the 4 and 5...so something has to give...and after amile we're down to 50 minutes.

If jahlil were any indication, K can play a top ranked big man freshman for 30 minutes a game...but that that mostly says is K will play freshman big men as many minutes as they can handle. Even if giles and bolden can only handle 20 a game (reasonable given bolden played 12 in just his first game back), that leaves just 10 minutes

So 10 minutes to account for ALL of chase's minutes, and all the time we might play small, which will almost assuredly be non-zero, given the 4 excellent guards we can trot out on the floor...ESPECIALLY in late game FT shooting situations.

So even in the best case, most conservative minute scenarios for the other 3 bigs, and most conservative estimate for how much we go small, chase STILL only gets 10 minutes a game.

5 minutes is more realistic.

I very much agree with this take. We're almost certain to see a three man big rotation (when Giles is ready) of Giles, Jefferson and Bolden. I can't see more than a few minutes/game for Jeter.
Of course, this assumes none of the three is out with an injury.
In fact, given our plethora of guards, if one of the three is hurt, I could see Tatum spending some time at the four, allowing Jones, Kennard, Allen and Jackson to divvy up the time at the other three spots.

Edouble
12-05-2016, 02:34 PM
Assuming Allen and Jackson play and Giles continues to sit, I think you've got it about right. I think that top 7 will each play 20+ minutes, with the group getting 190-195 minutes. I think Jeter still gets 5-10 to fill in as Bolden gets comfortable. Something along these lines:

Jefferson: 30
Tatum: 25
Kennard: 30
Allen: 30
Jones: 30
Jackson: 25
Bolden: 20-25
Jeter: 5-10

I'll go with this:

Jefferson: 32
Tatum: 22
Kennard: 35
Allen: 22
Jones: 33
Jackson: 26
Bolden: 18
Jeter: 12

Luke's driving the bus right now, Grayson is playing through pain, and Bolden and Tatum are only three days removed from a game where they were cramping and limping. Chase's minutes are going to fall off soon, but assuming no Giles tomorrow night, I think he's good for a double digit minutes. Will be fun to revisit this one after tomorrow night's game.

tbyers11
12-05-2016, 02:56 PM
Since Harry has only recently started practicing with contact, I'd be very surprised if we saw him tomorrow. December 19th (Tennessee St) would be my guess. Weak opponent, home game, following a nice long break for final exams.

Agree. If we had a week of practices this week I think that this Saturday's game would be perfect for Harry's debut. However, we are flying to NYC and back and then out to Vegas and will have little full-go practice. Being the last week of classes (often more busy than exams for many subjects) makes it seem even more likely.

BD80
12-05-2016, 03:57 PM
I wonder who Alex Murphy will be rooting for?

Is he still playing for the Gators?

Don't we have a separate thread for minutes discussion?

gep
12-05-2016, 04:45 PM
I guess I am in the minority here that believes that Chase plays a larger role on the team, even with Bolden and Giles back in the fold. Here's my logic: First, the kid has earned his playing time on defense. He crashes the glass. He blocks shots. He switches out. And he's pretty good on that side of the ball. His block rate is just a tad bit higher than Jefferson, as is his offensive rebounding rate. Obviously, Jefferson is much more offensively skilled. Still, Jeter does the things that you want to see out of a young post player that is trying to work his way into the rotation. Add to that the limited playing time of late due to the foot sprain, and you see a young and improving player gaining confidence and trust from the coaching staff.

Of course, Bolden is a superior talent at the moment, and Giles most likely is too. In a normal situation, you would expect that Vrankovic and then Jeter get squeezed out the lineup as Coach K grows to trust the freshmen more and more. But this is not a normal situation. Duke has serious size and depth in the frontcourt. Between Bolden, Giles, Jefferson, Jeter, and Vrankovic, there are 5 guys for 2 spots. There could even be 6 guys for those spots if Tatum does play that stretch 4 position. That depth doesn't just mean that players are going to get squeezed for time, though. It could also mean that there's another way to play the roster.

What I've been wondering since the summer is whether Coach K tries to use a pressing D again. He hasn't been able to the past few years due to the limitations of the roster. There were too few players, lest they get too tired expending all the energy on D. But with 5 bigs, 4 guards, and a wing that can play either on the perimeter or as part of a small lineup, I wonder if Coach K asks his players to speed it up. Create more transition opportunities. Trap the guards after a made basic. Give 100% effort more often. Sub players in. Really, only Vrankovic concerns me with an up-tempo approach, and not even that much. If guys are asked to give their max for 10 minutes at a time, it could be really amazing. Let's see if Duke speeds it up throughout December as the roster returns to health.

I watched the ends of the Butler and Baylor games from 2010 this weekend. Zoubs and Lance gets subbed by Miles and Mason. I remember Zoubs saying that with that substitution pattern, he and Lance can go 100% for 4-5 minutes without worry... knowing that the will get a breather for a few minutes, then ready to go 100% again for another 4-5 minutes. Seemed to work out pretty well :cool:

uh_no
12-05-2016, 04:52 PM
I watched the ends of the Butler and Baylor games from 2010 this weekend. Zoubs and Lance gets subbed by Miles and Mason. I remember Zoubs saying that with that substitution pattern, he and Lance can go 100% for 4-5 minutes without worry... knowing that the will get a breather for a few minutes, then ready to go 100% again for another 4-5 minutes. Seemed to work out pretty well :cool:

well...to be fair, they also then played almost the entire national title game....and it still turned out well.

gep
12-05-2016, 04:53 PM
well...to be fair, they also then played almost the entire national title game...and it still turned out well.

Yes... If I remember correctly, Zoubs and Lance had 4 fouls almost the entire 2nd half... but made it to the end of the game.

Edouble
12-05-2016, 04:54 PM
I watched the ends of the Butler and Baylor games from 2010 this weekend. Zoubs and Lance gets subbed by Miles and Mason. I remember Zoubs saying that with that substitution pattern, he and Lance can go 100% for 4-5 minutes without worry... knowing that the will get a breather for a few minutes, then ready to go 100% again for another 4-5 minutes. Seemed to work out pretty well :cool:

Lance and Zoubs played 35 and 31 minutes respectively in the Butler game. Mason and Miles logged 3 and 9.

Mason and Miles did get their highest minutes in any tournament games after the first round when we played Baylor, but I believe Zoubek was in foul trouble for a good part of that game (he fouled out). For most of the 2010 NCAAs, Lance and Zoubs logged the majority of the frontcourt minutes.

gep
12-05-2016, 04:57 PM
Lance and Zoubs played 35 and 31 minutes respectively in the Butler game. Mason and Miles logged 3 and 9.

Mason and Miles did get their highest minutes in any tournament games after the first round when we played Baylor, but I believe Zoubek was in foul trouble for a good part of that game (he fouled out). For most of the 2010 NCAAs, Lance and Zoubs logged the majority of the frontcourt minutes.

Yes... I guess my point was that Coach K found a way to sub the bigs to some extent. Also Zoub's comment on going 100% while in the game seemed to be what was posted earlier. :cool:

Furniture
12-05-2016, 08:46 PM
Is he still playing for the Gators?

Alex is playing at Northeastern university. He was granted a sixth year of eligibility because of injury issues.

subzero02
12-05-2016, 09:17 PM
They don't particularly shoot well from 2 either (44%). Decent FT shooting team though (76%). I haven't seen them play but like you said it sounds like defense and an attacking offense. Hopefully Bolden is able to go, so we can see how having a rim protector will look.

They are a much improved free throw shooting team...

Saratoga2
12-05-2016, 09:38 PM
I just don't see what you see. Chase is the worst F or C we have at "crashing the boards". His rebound rate is about half that of Vrank the Tank and less than half that of Javin the Javelin. His block rate is slightly better than Vrank's, and quite a bit better than Javin's. His offensive ability is extremely limited and he has poor hands so that he loses rebounds and fails to gather passes for easy buckets.
Chase has certainly improved since last year, and i hope he continues to improve so that he can be a solid contributor next year. He has already shown that he at least a somewhat reliable player in the absence of our injured frontcourt players.
I have a hard time seeing Chase getting much p.t. going forward if Bolden and Jefferson remain healthy, and when Giles returns there will be essentially 0 mpg outside of "mop-up" time for him, Vrank or Javin.

My assessment of Jeter's strengths and weaknesses lines up with yours. Where he has the edge is experience but with his other shortcomings I don't expect him to get a lot of minutes, barring foul trouble for Jefferson.

DavidBenAkiva
12-05-2016, 09:41 PM
I watched the ends of the Butler and Baylor games from 2010 this weekend. Zoubs and Lance gets subbed by Miles and Mason. I remember Zoubs saying that with that substitution pattern, he and Lance can go 100% for 4-5 minutes without worry... knowing that the will get a breather for a few minutes, then ready to go 100% again for another 4-5 minutes. Seemed to work out pretty well :cool:

Thank you! I am getting crushed for suggesting that Coach K sometimes plays more than 7 guys. What if, and I know this is crazy, Coach K tries to play a different style of basketball for a few games? The guy is famous for not being set in stone. Why should we, his biggest fans, expect differently? That's my point.

I think we are going to see, during conference play most likely, a deeper bench. Will it last? Probably not. And then, as he almost always does, Coach K will tighten the rotation so that 7 or 8 guys get the majority of the minutes. I'm just putting out there that I fully expect to see a deeper rotation with more frequent substitutions for a few games during the winter and ACC play. K likes to tinker with the lineup and this is how I expect it to go down. Chase is going to get 15 minutes a game running around while Bolden and others take a breather. Who knows? I could be wrong. I probably will be wrong.

WWBD
12-05-2016, 09:59 PM
I think Jeter will be closer to 15-17.

You think chase is going to play nearly half the game?! Ay de mi. I dread the day.

mgtr
12-05-2016, 11:05 PM
You think chase is going to play nearly half the game?! Ay de mi. I dread the day.

Chase does some things well, in part because he has one year under his belt. DeLaurier is learning, but he has only a few games and practices under his belt. I put them in the same box (recognizing that Chase is a year ahead) because I see them both as projects -- great athletic ability, but limited basketball skills. If DeLaurier improves over the summer and next season, he could become quite a Duke player. I sincerely hope that Chase improves a lot this year and next, but right now he isn't where he needs to be. Vrank can do some things better than Chase, but I wouldn't put in before Chase. Vrank also should improve with another year of seasoning.
For this year, I think that most of the benefit we will get from these players will be from Chase -- just hope the other two don't give up and transfer. As I stated earlier, I think DeLaurier will develop into a better player than Chase is now. Vrank will develop into a different player, more like Zoubs. I will gladly take that. But not so much this year.
In net, even with his warts, I expect that Chase will be in the rotation this year.















c

Kedsy
12-05-2016, 11:31 PM
Vrank will develop into a different player, more like Zoubs.

In what way is Antonio Vrankovic like Brian Zoubek? Other than their height, what makes you think they're similar players?

For what it's worth, Zoubek was the 25th ranked recruit in the country his senior year of high school. Vrankovic was unranked. As a college senior, Zoubek was one of the top rebounders in the nation, and his rebounding percentages were similar his junior year, though he didn't get enough minutes junior year to truly show off. While I like what I see from Antonio, I don't see any reason to believe he'll rise anywhere close to the level that Brian Zoubek reached his senior (or even junior) year.

Maybe Antonio could be a Marshall Plumlee-like player by his senior year, but even that isn't a lock. It's a pipe dream to expect him to get to Brian Zoubek level.

mgtr
12-05-2016, 11:41 PM
In what way is Antonio Vrankovic like Brian Zoubek? Other than their height, what makes you think they're similar players?

For what it's worth, Zoubek was the 25th ranked recruit in the country his senior year of high school. Vrankovic was unranked. As a college senior, Zoubek was one of the top rebounders in the nation, and his rebounding percentages were similar his junior year, though he didn't get enough minutes junior year to truly show off. While I like what I see from Antonio, I don't see any reason to believe he'll rise anywhere close to the level that Brian Zoubek reached his senior (or even junior) year.

Maybe Antonio could be a Marshall Plumlee-like player by his senior year, but even that isn't a lock. It's a pipe dream to expect him to get to Brian Zoubek level.

You may be 100% right. But I remember clearly that in his early years, fans groaned when he came as an instant foul mackine. Of course he had foot problems and was out some. But by his senior year, he was totally competent at his job, such that a fan held a sign (upside down) saying Marry Me, Zoubek.

I doubt that Vrank will progress that far, but by his senior year I believe he will be a substantial contributor, in the vein of
Zoubs Not as good, but similar to the style of play.

uh_no
12-05-2016, 11:46 PM
You may be 100% right. But I remember clearly that in his early years, fans groaned when he came as an instant foul mackine. Of course he had foot problems and was out some. But by his senior year, he was totally competent at his job, such that a fan held a sign (upside down) saying Marry Me, Zoubek.

I doubt that Vrank will progress that far, but by his senior year I believe he will be a substantial contributor, in the vein of
Zoubs Not as good, but similar to the style of play.

If I recall, his per 40 minutes didn't change much...he just was able to stay on the court longer due to not fouling.

I don't know for sure, but I suspect Z's per 40 numbers were better, even in his early years, than vrank's.

richardjackson199
12-05-2016, 11:54 PM
Giles maybe, but Jayson and Marques were at least playing with their teammates all summer. Duke in MSG with a huge advantage in talent? I'd be surprised if this game is close.

Vegas has Duke by 6.5 points. It will be fun to see what happens on a neutral court. It's a great test for us. It will be good for our freshmen to see where they are well before conference play starts.

uh_no
12-05-2016, 11:58 PM
If I recall, his per 40 minutes didn't change much...he just was able to stay on the court longer due to not fouling.

I don't know for sure, but I suspect Z's per 40 numbers were better, even in his early years, than vrank's.

Here they are. Z was a better scorer until his senior year, when he didn't need to be. Vrank was the better rebounder except for Z's senior year. Z was the better blocker. Vrank's success here will, like Z, relate to his ability to stay on the floor, either due to fouls or other talent on the team.




pts
rebs
blks


Vrank
12.5
14.3
1.8


Z frosh
16.7
12.1
1.5


Z Soph
14.5
13.1
2.6


Z Jr
13.7
12.5
2.7


Z Sr
12.0
16.6
1.7

Kedsy
12-06-2016, 12:27 AM
Z was a better scorer until his senior year, when he didn't need to be. Vrank was the better rebounder except for Z's senior year. Z was the better blocker. Vrank's success here will, like Z, relate to his ability to stay on the floor, either due to fouls or other talent on the team.

I'm not sure we can say even this much. Antonio has only played 81 career minutes so far. At this point in his Duke career (8 games into his sophomore season), Z had played 326 minutes, more than 4 times as many.

As others have pointed out, most of Antonio's minutes have been in garbage time against much smaller teams. His per 40 numbers compared to Z's are sort of apples-to-oranges.

OldPhiKap
12-06-2016, 02:26 AM
I'm not sure we can say even this much. Antonio has only played 81 career minutes so far. At this point in his Duke career (8 games into his sophomore season), Z had played 326 minutes, more than 4 times as many.

As others have pointed out, most of Antonio's minutes have been in garbage time against much smaller teams. His per 40 numbers compared to Z's are sort of apples-to-oranges.

Adding to that, I don't think Z was really healthy until his senior year. I'll copy his wiki on HS because I'm lazy:


In 2006 Zoubek was named as a fourth-team Parade All-American selection, named to the Jordan All-America team, and was New Jersey Player of the Year. He was twice selected by the Newark Star-Ledger to the all-state first team and was selected all-conference and All-South Jersey three times.

Zoubek averaged 24.7 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 4.2 blocks per game as a senior. He was rated 33rd overall by The Recruiting Services Consensus Index, and ranked 24th in the Rivals.com Top 150 prospects of 2006.

So, a top 25-35 recruit. I dig me some Vrank but not sure the comparison above tells us much.

Jim3k
12-06-2016, 03:42 AM
It will be fun to see what happens on a neutral court.

Not that neutral. UNLV's home court (Thomas and Mack) is about a mile and a quarter from T-Mobile Arena. Straight east on Tropicana. UNLV regards it as a home game. I haven't checked but I'm pretty sure the bookies do, too.

Main difference, of course, is the larger venue. And, AFAICT, the place is sold out. Home court advantage: UNLV.

GoB
12-06-2016, 05:16 AM
So glad to see Tatum and Bolden playing again. Not only excited to see these guys continue to integrate into the team, but fascinated to see how Coach K manages the team and playing time. Florida is for real and certainly has ability to beat Duke tomorrow so I think we will see Coach K overall plan for the team begin to crystalize. While Coach K does plant seeds (see Allen 2015), generally he puts the most talented players on the floor (with limited match up tweaks).

I assume the starting point is the line-up and rotations we saw for MSU, URI, KU and even PSU games. To recap, Jeter averaged 14 minutes in those games (6 to 26 min) and rest of bench (Vrank, DeLaurier) less than 4 min. I think it's safe to assume Jeter is as far as we'll go and expect his minutes will decrease pretty much in line with Bolden's increase. Can Bolden play 10 minutes? 20? Sure this will depend on match-ups but will be surprised to see Bolden play 20 and completely leave Jeter on the bench. That said, can't see Jeter playing more than 10 minutes. Combined, see them playing 20-25 minutes - to some extent time capped by Tatum time at 4 - see below.

More interesting is Tatum. Sat was easy. He played 20 minutes and his playing time was seemingly impacted by his cramp which seemed to happen early in 2nd half and him seating resulted in those odd late 2nd half line-ups (Jefferson as PG). Where do his minutes come from against FL and going forward? For Florida, Saturday's injuries suggest they will come from Jackson and Allen but also think rotations will give us a hint of the future. I like Jackson but feel like it's got to come from him (absent select match-ups). I expect Allen will ready to go for a game at garden against top 20 team which is also his home state school. How much will Coach K limit Allen's minutes in such a game? I can't see K sitting Allen, Kennard or Jones in any meaningful way - so where do Tatum's minutes come from? Tatum at the 4? Probably for a bit but that's not going to be enough - IMO. I've wondered all fall how rotations will go and excited to finally start to see.

Should we play guess the minutes?
I'll go with:
Allen 32
Kennard: 37
Jefferson: 34
Jones: 30
Jackson: 28
Tatum: 25
Bolden: 12
Jeter: 2
Giles, Vrankovic, DeLaurier, White, Obi, Robinson, Pagliuca, Besser: 0

Green Wave Dukie
12-06-2016, 05:22 AM
Not that neutral. UNLV's home court (Thomas and Mack) is about a mile and a quarter from T-Mobile Arena. Straight east on Tropicana. UNLV regards it as a home game. I haven't checked but I'm pretty sure the bookies do, too.

Main difference, of course, is the larger venue. And, AFAICT, the place is sold out. Home court advantage: UNLV.

I'm thinking RichardJackson was referring to tonight's game against Florida in MSG

UrinalCake
12-06-2016, 08:00 AM
I see a lot of similarities between Zoubs and Vrank. I mean let's face it, they're both big hulking dudes who came in as projects, had massive size advantages when playing in high school but are really slow and have to learn how to use their size to play at the next level. Plus they have unusual last names.

Zoubs became a master at defensive positioning. Despite being lead-footed, he could hedge when defending the pick and roll perfectly, knowing just how long to step out in front of the guard to slow him down while also getting back to his man. Our current group of bigs constantly switch on the pnr, leaving them alone to guard the point guard which is always a disaster.

Anyways, I see no reason why Vrank couldn't develop into a similar player as Zoubs. And I also think our bigs rotation could be similar to that of 2010, as has been mentioned. The Plumlees had much more raw talent, but Lance/Z had more experience which is kind of like how it is now.

Spanarkel
12-06-2016, 08:24 AM
You may be 100% right. But I remember clearly that in his early years, fans groaned when he came as an instant foul mackine. Of course he had foot problems and was out some. But by his senior year, he was totally competent at his job, such that a fan held a sign (upside down) saying Marry Me, Zoubek.

I doubt that Vrank will progress that far, but by his senior year I believe he will be a substantial contributor, in the vein of
Zoubs Not as good, but similar to the style of play.




Will never forget that home game vs. Maryland in February 2010 when the light finally really came on for Zoubek: 17 points, 16 rebounds, and 2 blocks in 22 minutes. It all felt divinely orchestrated, like Ryan Kelly's return from injury game against Miami.

FadedTackyShirt
12-06-2016, 09:29 AM
Thank you! I am getting crushed for suggesting that Coach K sometimes plays more than 7 guys. What if, and I know this is crazy, Coach K tries to play a different style of basketball for a few games? The guy is famous for not being set in stone. Why should we, his biggest fans, expect differently? That's my point.

I think we are going to see, during conference play most likely, a deeper bench. Will it last? Probably not. And then, as he almost always does, Coach K will tighten the rotation so that 7 or 8 guys get the majority of the minutes. I'm just putting out there that I fully expect to see a deeper rotation with more frequent substitutions for a few games during the winter and ACC play. K likes to tinker with the lineup and this is how I expect it to go down. Chase is going to get 15 minutes a game running around while Bolden and others take a breather. Who knows? I could be wrong. I probably will be wrong.

Saw a statement in a recent thread that K's optimal rotation would be 7 players. Definitely borne out by observational data, but has K ever explicitly said 7 was his ideal? 8 seems like a more widely held number in CBB.

flyingdutchdevil
12-06-2016, 09:38 AM
Based on this thread that focused on Florida and not Vrank v Chase, it sounds like Florida is great at steals, blocks, and offensive rebounds. So, rebounding (both offensive and defensive) and ball protection are going to be really important. I'm looking forward to the Tatum/Amile/Bolden line-up. It's huge and looks excellent on paper for offensive and defensive rebounds. Add Grayson and Kennard to that mix (they are averaging a combined 12.1 rebounds per game. That is insane), and you have arguably one of the best rebounding teams in the country (and maybe Duke history).

However, that's only one side of the coin. What about ball protection? Great question, and I hope Grayson/Kennard/Jackson/Jones are up to the challenge.

But if we lose, it'll be because of turnovers.

flyingdutchdevil
12-06-2016, 09:50 AM
It's premium content, but it's worth reading if you have Insider/interested in getting insider: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/18218100/duke-blue-devils-getting-healthier-challenges-await

Basically, talks about Coach K's "issues" with integrating 3 talented freshman. Also discusses how opposing teams can prepare/beat Duke.

To sum up, ESPN CBB loves Duke this year, especially Borzello and Brennan.

uh_no
12-06-2016, 10:09 AM
It's premium content, but it's worth reading if you have Insider/interested in getting insider: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/18218100/duke-blue-devils-getting-healthier-challenges-await

Basically, talks about Coach K's "issues" with integrating 3 talented freshman. Also discusses how opposing teams can prepare/beat Duke.

To sum up, ESPN CBB loves Duke this year, especially Borzello and Brennan.

Does it involve tonya harding? If not, then I'm skeptical.....and giddly optimistic.

flyingdutchdevil
12-06-2016, 10:14 AM
Does it involve tonya harding? If not, then I'm skeptical....and giddly optimistic.

Pretty much. It's basically what we've talked about to death here: how the hell do you stop certain players or systems? Good luck planning for Allen, Kennard, or Tatum. And then you have Amile and Jackson. And you wanna leave Jones alone on the 3pt end? How about boxing out Bolden? And once Harry comes, coaches start crying.

With systems, it's even worse. Is there really a drop off from a big line-up featuring Tatum-Amile-Bolden in the frontcourt vs small ball featuring [big guard]-Tatum-Amile? Those of us who were stupidly excited about this year's team two months ago (pre-injuries) are now once again this stupidly excited (of which I am included. I admit my optimism is glass-completely-full-and-overflowing)

NSDukeFan
12-06-2016, 11:03 AM
Pretty much. It's basically what we've talked about to death here: how the hell do you stop certain players or systems? Good luck planning for Allen, Kennard, or Tatum. And then you have Amile and Jackson. And you wanna leave Jones alone on the 3pt end? How about boxing out Bolden? And once Harry comes, coaches start crying.

With systems, it's even worse. Is there really a drop off from a big line-up featuring Tatum-Amile-Bolden in the frontcourt vs small ball featuring [big guard]-Tatum-Amile? Those of us who were stupidly excited about this year's team two months ago (pre-injuries) are now once again this stupidly excited (of which I am included. I admit my optimism is glass-completely-full-and-overflowing)

I am extremely excited to see Giles play for Duke and was very happy Tatum and Bolden made their debuts last game. If Duke is as good as I hope for the rest of the year, wins the rest of their games in convincing fashion, (though I think I am more afraid of this Florida game than many) can the Kansas game be erased so that it can be considered an unbeaten season in case anyone got a 40-0 tattoo? Asking for a friend.

kAzE
12-06-2016, 11:30 AM
I am extremely excited to see Giles play for Duke and was very happy Tatum and Bolden made their debuts last game. If Duke is as good as I hope for the rest of the year, wins the rest of their games in convincing fashion, (though I think I am more afraid of this Florida game than many) can the Kansas game be erased so that it can be considered an unbeaten season in case anyone got a 40-0 tattoo? Asking for a friend.

Personally, I'm a little relieved that we got our first loss out of the way early. And it happened in the best possible way. A 2 point loss at the buzzer to a top 5 team on a neutral court (thus keeping our home non-conference win streak intact) while missing 3 of our best players. That's about as "good" a loss as you can ask for.

Having 40-0 media buzz follow the team all season would have been a distraction. The team has so many injury question marks still, so getting healthy and having the team firing on all cylinders by March is what we should focus on. However, 39-1 ain't too shabby. Especially if your 1 loss is in November, and not in March ;)

devildeac
12-06-2016, 11:33 AM
It's premium content, but it's worth reading if you have Insider/interested in getting insider: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/18218100/duke-blue-devils-getting-healthier-challenges-await

Basically, talks about Coach K's "issues" with integrating 3 talented freshman. Also discusses how opposing teams can prepare/beat Duke.

To sum up, ESPN CBB loves Duke this year, especially Borzello and Brennan.


Does it involve tonya harding? If not, then I'm skeptical....and giddly optimistic.

Just wait until we play L'ville and their, umm, physical full court press. :mad:

Kedsy
12-06-2016, 11:34 AM
However, 39-1 ain't too shabby.

I predict we will not go 39-1. But if we can get and stay healthy, I like our chances to win the ACC, reach the Final Four, and contend for a championship.

flyingdutchdevil
12-06-2016, 11:36 AM
I predict we will not go 39-1. But if we can get and stay healthy, I like our chances to win the ACC, reach the Final Four, and contend for a championship.

6923

NSDukeFan
12-06-2016, 11:58 AM
Personally, I'm a little relieved that we got our first loss out of the way early. And it happened in the best possible way. A 2 point loss at the buzzer to a top 5 team on a neutral court (thus keeping our home non-conference win streak intact) while missing 3 of our best players. That's about as "good" a loss as you can ask for.

Having 40-0 media buzz follow the team all season would have been a distraction. The team has so many injury question marks still, so getting healthy and having the team firing on all cylinders by March is what we should focus on. However, 39-1 ain't too shabby. Especially if your 1 loss is in November, and not in March ;)

39-1 isn't too bad. And devildeac told me to tell my friend that tattoos might be able to be altered. I like Kedsy's take as that is what I would like to see. An ACC championship and regional championship is an awesome year. Like many of us, I am giddy thinking of what Giles will be able to do when he has a few games under his belt and is surrounded by the talent this team has.

OldPhiKap
12-06-2016, 12:02 PM
39-1 isn't too bad. And devildeac told me to tell my friend that tattoos might be able to be altered. I like Kedsy's take as that is what I would like to see. An ACC championship and regional championship is an awesome year. Like many of us, I am giddy thinking of what Giles will be able to do when he has a few games under his belt and is surrounded by the talent this team has.

This year I was smart. i got the full-chest 2017 Championship tat of course, but left the record blank.

Painful lesson learned.

(Oh, and lesson two: don't get your tat in Juarez. I didn't know there was such a thing as hep-E before the Sun Bowl)

House P
12-06-2016, 12:47 PM
Based on this thread that focused on Florida and not Vrank v Chase, it sounds like Florida is great at steals, blocks, and offensive rebounds.

What about ball protection? Great question, and I hope Grayson/Kennard/Jackson/Jones are up to the challenge.

But if we lose, it'll be because of turnovers.

It has been mentioned that Florida forces a lot of turnovers. Does anyone know if they apply a lot of full court pressure?

Conventional wisdom seems to be that if Duke has a weakness of offense, it is probably the lack of an elite ballhandler. If Florida does a lot of pressing, it will be interesting to see how Duke handles this.

In his Dec 1 Power Rankings (http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2016/12/01/power-rankings-villanova-kentucky-kansas-duke), Luke Winn has a blurb about who should be considered Duke's "point guard". Grayson leads the team in assists. However, against Michigan State, Frank Jackson or Matt Jones usually brought the ball upcourt, though they rarely do much shot creating for others. It is one thing for Frank or Matt to walk/jog the ball up court with little pressure and initiate the offense with a largely uncontested pass to the wing/high post. Totally another thing to do this against an elite pressure defense.

There are many ways to beat pressure without a Bobby Hurley level ballhandler. I'm interested to see how Coach K approaches this with his current team and how well the team responds. The Florida game may be a chance to find out.

Olympic Fan
12-06-2016, 12:53 PM
FWIW,

Kenpom currently ranked Florida No. 12 in the nation and gives Duke a 68 percent chance to win (predicting a 75-70 win).

That's exactly the same percentage and margin that he projects for our Dec. 31 game at Virginia Tech ...

The other five games after Florida (UNLV, Tennessee State, Elon, Georgia Tech and Boston College) he rates at 95 percent-plus ...

MChambers
12-06-2016, 01:09 PM
FWIW,

Kenpom currently ranked Florida No. 12 in the nation and gives Duke a 68 percent chance to win (predicting a 75-70 win).

That's exactly the same percentage and margin that he projects for our Dec. 31 game at Virginia Tech ...

The other five games after Florida (UNLV, Tennessee State, Elon, Georgia Tech and Boston College) he rates at 95 percent-plus ...

Which means that there is greater than 50% probability that Duke will have another loss before January 1.

Troublemaker
12-06-2016, 01:27 PM
It has been mentioned that Florida forces a lot of turnovers. Does anyone know if they apply a lot of full court pressure?


Florida has used a zone press this season but they will back off if we're getting the ball across easily. I think we'll use Amile to help the guards and then the Gators will back off.

uh_no
12-06-2016, 01:34 PM
Florida has used a zone press this season but they will back off if we're getting the ball across easily. I think we'll use Amile to help the guards and then the Gators will back off.

despite having turnover issues at times, I don't think we've had much trouble breaking the press the few times we've seen it. We can put 5 decent ball handlers on the floor.

Troublemaker
12-06-2016, 01:41 PM
despite having turnover issues at times, I don't think we've had much trouble breaking the press the few times we've seen it. We can put 5 decent ball handlers on the floor.

Agreed. If Duke turns the ball over a lot tonight, I think it will come in the halfcourt in the form of perimeter players getting stripped on drives and big men getting stripped on postups.

BD80
12-06-2016, 02:38 PM
Florida has used a zone press this season but they will back off if we're getting the ball across easily. I think we'll use Amile to help the guards and then the Gators will back off.

This is an where Giles and Tatum would/will be tremendously effective

MarkD83
12-06-2016, 04:32 PM
I may have missed it in this thread, but is Harry going to play tonight? I am assuming Grayson and Frank are going to play, is that correct?

Thanks

kAzE
12-06-2016, 04:33 PM
Who needs a point guard when you have a point center? :)

House P
12-06-2016, 04:59 PM
despite having turnover issues at times, I don't think we've had much trouble breaking the press the few times we've seen it. We can put 5 decent ball handlers on the floor.


Agreed. If Duke turns the ball over a lot tonight, I think it will come in the halfcourt in the form of perimeter players getting stripped on drives and big men getting stripped on postups.

I suspect you are both correct. But after watching West Virginia give normally steady, low-turnover (East) Virginia fits on Saturday, I am curious to see what happens when Duke faces a team with a strong press.

That being said, even if Florida causes lots of turnovers, they ain't West Virginia.

MChambers
12-06-2016, 05:06 PM
I may have missed it in this thread, but is Harry going to play tonight? I am assuming Grayson and Frank are going to play, is that correct?

Thanks

Check back in 2.5 hours!

I doubt Giles will play.

OldPhiKap
12-06-2016, 05:09 PM
I may have missed it in this thread, but is Harry going to play tonight? I am assuming Grayson and Frank are going to play, is that correct?

Thanks


Check back in 2.5 hours!

I doubt Giles will play.

Well, we are playing in the house Willis Reed built.

uh_no
12-06-2016, 06:15 PM
Check back in 2.5 hours!

I doubt Giles will play.

yeah. with two patsies on the horizon, I doubt this is the time to bring him in. If it were february, you'd try to get him as much game time as possible, but at this point, even if he IS ready, save it for someone like elon (sorry elon)

Edouble
12-06-2016, 07:39 PM
yeah. with two patsies on the horizon, I doubt this is the time to bring him in. If it were february, you'd try to get him as much game time as possible, but at this point, even if he IS ready, save it for someone like elon (sorry elon)

I actually disagree with this.

If he's ready, get him 10 minutes.

The goal is a National Championship. Everything else is secondary. We need to get the engine running on Harry as soon as we can. Plus, I would think it would give the kid a confidence boost to start his college career vs a ranked team at The Garden, as opposed to unranked UNLV in Nevada.

Pghdukie
12-06-2016, 08:05 PM
Are there any surprise NO-GO's in the warmups ?

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12-06-2016, 08:05 PM
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Duke79UNLV77
12-06-2016, 08:09 PM
Doesn't matter how many times I've seen it. Jimmy V's speech always brings tears to my eyes.

duketaylor
12-06-2016, 08:23 PM
Anybody not warming up? Just showed Grayson, couldn't tell anything else.

kmspeaks
12-06-2016, 08:24 PM
Starters from Duke Basketball on Facebook: Matt, Grayson, Frank, Luke, Amile

rsvman
12-06-2016, 09:08 PM
Kennard is a machine.

Faison1
12-06-2016, 09:19 PM
There seems to be a real buzz in the building.

I gotta say, they are moving the ball really well.

This is the first time I've watched Tatum...now I understand. Closest comparison...Grant Hill

jipops
12-06-2016, 09:21 PM
That last 10 minutes was some mighty fine ball to watch. Ball movement, defense...everything was clicking. Hope they can keep it going in the 2nd.

CDu
12-06-2016, 09:22 PM
There seems to be a real buzz in the building.

I gotta say, they seem to be moving the ball really well.

This is the first time I've really watched Tatum...now I understand. Closest comparison...Grant Hill

Yeah, he clearly brings something different to this team. Skies for rebounds in traffic on defense, yet can still stay with guards. Can post up or face up. Just a different animal than anyone else on our roster.

SCMatt33
12-06-2016, 09:23 PM
Great job by the D locking down late in the half. One of the things with a good shot blocking team like Florida is that they can be very disciplined in not reaching with the arms in the paint. You saw a lot of Duke's drives for the first fifteen minutes had way to many double clutch, reverse, and fade away type shots. A team like Florida, you have to drive right into the body. You won't get the call every time, but you won't have 0 fouls at the under 8 timeout either. They see,ed to adjust late. Grayson finally took one right at them and so did Jayson at the end. They only got the call once, but that's ok, keep driving at em.

slower
12-06-2016, 09:24 PM
I think Grayson's NPOY chances are disappearing quickly.

pfrduke
12-06-2016, 09:28 PM
The defense at the end of the half was great. Really fun to watch from in the arena. For the first time in years we really disrupt things with size and length.

Faison1
12-06-2016, 09:30 PM
I think Grayson's NPOY chances are disappearing quickly.

I wonder if he cares (I'm not trying to be snarky)....Considering the squad he's playing with, I think it's going to be really tough to win NPOY. Kennard alone is overshadowing him.

rsvman
12-06-2016, 09:34 PM
I wonder if he cares (I'm not trying to be snarky)...Considering the squad he's playing with, I think it's going to be really tough to win NPOY. Kennard alone is overshadowing him.

I would certainly hope he doesn't. It's a team game.
Did you see the sheer joy on Jones's face when Tatum made the last shot of the half? That's what basketball is all about. Matt gets it entirely.

Ballboy1998
12-06-2016, 09:36 PM
Phenomenal first halves from Kennard and Jefferson. Allen is clearly playing hurt and he looks it when he tries to finish around the basket -- no lift at all.

Super excited with what we are seeing from Tatum. We all have heard that he is an elite scorer, and he showed some of that late, but I was especially excited with what he showed in the other parts of the game. He caused some havoc on defense, drew a number of non-shooting fouls, and really attached the glass. Really, really promising stuff!

Faison1
12-06-2016, 09:47 PM
Amile has sooooooo exceeded expectations!

I'm loving that guy.

CDu
12-06-2016, 10:01 PM
I love me some Matt Jones, but this hasn't been his best night. One awful live-ball turnover, then rather than just falling out of bounds, he committed the cardinal sin of saving the ball under his own basket. He will have better days.

Selover
12-06-2016, 10:08 PM
I'll have two of whatever Amile is having! Holy cow!

jipops
12-06-2016, 10:16 PM
Lots to be happy about tonight. But defense in the 2nd half is not one of them.

pfrduke
12-06-2016, 10:17 PM
There's a big margin for error on this team. Jones and Allen are playing bad basketball tonight but Kennard, Amile, and Tatum have more than made up for it.

CDu
12-06-2016, 10:17 PM
Lots to be happy about tonight. But defense in the 2nd half is not one of them.

Yeah, sloppy on that end. In fairness, UF is hitting a high % on 3s, which makes it look worse. But still.

It is nice having SOO many weapons.

pfrduke
12-06-2016, 10:17 PM
Lots to be happy about tonight. But defense in the 2nd half is not one of them.

You can't blame the defense for a Florida guard hitting two contested threes off the dribble. Those were both terrible shots that went in. Happens sometimes. Our defense looks a lot better without those six points.

arnie
12-06-2016, 10:18 PM
I love me some Matt Jones, but this hasn't been his best night. One awful live-ball turnover, then rather than just falling out of bounds, he committed the cardinal sin of saving the ball under his own basket. He will have better days.

If Giles comes back and healthy, hard to see Matt starting again.

davekay1971
12-06-2016, 10:21 PM
What a coming out party for Tatum. Wow. Three plays in a row, we isolated him against his defender on the wing. All three plays he delivered (fouled on the drive, then two beautiful jumpers). He's just amazing.

jipops
12-06-2016, 10:23 PM
Poor defense making this a little uncomfortable.

rocketeli
12-06-2016, 10:30 PM
If Giles comes back and healthy, hard to see Matt starting again.

You wish. But if K wouldn't bench him tonight, as badly as he played he must love him more than any other Duke player in history...