Concern of injuries in order

[gofurman]

It is actually Grayson's injury that worries me the most in a way... I feel he keeps playing when he possibly needs a long rest - read, Don't play v Maine. He isn't even practicing. They have already cut that out. He is seeing Dr's on his own. So he only suits up on game days. That sounds a lot like Seth Curry who never recovered ... Same sort of deal. Don't practice. Only play in games. But the big difference here is how big a contributor G Allen is AND the fact it is still December. Heck, sit him until January. It doesn't matter. It will matter in March. If it will help him let's not see him play until Feb 1. A junior with his experience can catch right back up if inserted a few weeks from now. It's the freshman who struggle learning collegiate speed Defense etc. Grayson, Amile, upperclassmen don't improve much from one game to the next. Which is good - they already know most everything... Freshman do need to be out there as soon as healthy but Grayson isn't going to miss out on learning if he skips a few games

Thoughts? This is almost like a 'most important' vs best' discussion. I am going w 'most important'. Grayson, then rim protection.. Then a high-scoring wing

After that I would like to see one of the rim protectors back as soon as 100% healthy. Tatum is exciting but Bolden or Giles offer something we don't have - rim protection defense. Tatum offers a lot too - a wing player which we don't have. But, to me, Bolden or Giles allow three key things - 1). a depth addition allowing everyone a few minutes off and that compounds by keeping everyone fresh which helps the shooters legs and FTs etc... 2). It takes Jeter off the floor and he is doing so much better but he is not near Giles or Bolden (no offense, he is really improving but he is the least of our current 6 right now). Think of the possible point differential there ... 3). The rim protection allows everyone to overcommit on the perimeter and play passing lanes a little more.

Just one of those two would be huge. Both would be spectacular

Honestly, if one of the bigs came in at true full-speed then Tatum might be next most important as we would then have Amile and one of Bolden or Giles plus Jeter as third man in rotation. And Tatum then offers the wing size we don't have now. Though his defensive learning curve may be steep? If he is even close to Miles Bridges that's quite an addition

[Olympic Fan]

Thoughts?

Yeah ... Lighten up Francis.

[Kedsy]

Tatum offers a lot too - a wing player which we don't have.

Really? Right now we're playing six guys, and four of them are wing players.

[CDu]

Really? Right now we're playing six guys, and four of them are wing players.

Wording issues aside, Tatum absolutely does indeed offer something we don't have: a combo forward (which is what I think the previous poster meant with the term "wing", even though that isn't really the right way to use that term). We have four combo guards, one F/C, and one C. But nobody in our top-six is a SF/PF like Tatum. I think it is quite obvious that Tatum is unlike our four combo guards.

[slower]

Yeah ... Lighten up Francis.

I didn't see anything wrong with the OP's post.

[Edouble]

It is actually Grayson's injury that worries me the most in a way... I feel he keeps playing when he possibly needs a long rest - read, Don't play v Maine. He isn't even practicing. They have already cut that out. He is seeing Dr's on his own. So he only suits up on game days. That sounds a lot like Seth Curry who never recovered ... Same sort of deal. Don't practice. Only play in games. But the big difference here is how big a contributor G Allen is AND the fact it is still December. Heck, sit him until January. It doesn't matter. It will matter in March. If it will help him let's not see him play until Feb 1. A junior with his experience can catch right back up if inserted a few weeks from now. It's the freshman who struggle learning collegiate speed Defense etc. Grayson, Amile, upperclassmen don't improve much from one game to the next. Which is good - they already know most everything... Freshman do need to be out there as soon as healthy but Grayson isn't going to miss out on learning if he skips a few games

Thoughts? This is almost like a 'most important' vs best' discussion. I am going w 'most important'. Grayson, then rim protection.. Then a high-scoring wing

After that I would like to see one of the rim protectors back as soon as 100% healthy. Tatum is exciting but Bolden or Giles offer something we don't have - rim protection defense. Tatum offers a lot too - a wing player which we don't have. But, to me, Bolden or Giles allow three key things - 1). a depth addition allowing everyone a few minutes off and that compounds by keeping everyone fresh which helps the shooters legs and FTs etc... 2). It takes Jeter off the floor and he is doing so much better but he is not near Giles or Bolden (no offense, he is really improving but he is the least of our current 6 right now). Think of the possible point differential there ... 3). The rim protection allows everyone to overcommit on the perimeter and play passing lanes a little more.

Just one of those two would be huge. Both would be spectacular

Honestly, if one of the bigs came in at true full-speed then Tatum might be next most important as we would then have Amile and one of Bolden or Giles plus Jeter as third man in rotation. And Tatum then offers the wing size we don't have now. Though his defensive learning curve may be steep? If he is even close to Miles Bridges that's quite an addition

I don't get this.

Just because a poster in another thread said that his wife saw Grayson in the waiting room of a doctor's office, how does that translate to "He is seeing doctors on his own"? I sure hope that Duke's team doctor sends players to specialists and believes in a team effort with regard to our players' treatment, which is a standard approach in medicine.

[WVDUKEFAN]

I would love to see Grayson get back to 100 percent as well. I think he appears frustrated at times and is forcing things at times. That just goes back to the kind of warrior he is. The "big 3" will be back sooner than later if you listen to what Coach K said after the Michigan State game. The kids who wouldn't necessarily have gotten a lot of playing time had these injuries occurred got some good exposure. Luke has impressed me more than any other player we've had on the floor, and on both ends for that matter. While we have missed out on the "big 3" playing together and with the rest of the team, other players have gained valuable experience and we'll hopefully be a stronger and better team for it when it counts. Coach K sat those kids out to let them fully recover for when it counts. He's the best there is, and this may be one of his best coaching efforts - ever.

[trinity92]

Wording issues aside . . .

C'mon CDu, this isn't your first rodeo. By now you should know that for certain posters, wording is the issue?

[UrinalCake]

Resting Grayson would seem to make sense but I guess it becomes a question of whether rest would actually help, and we don't know if it would because we don't even really know what the injury is. I mean it seems logical that no matter what, rest would be better than no rest, but my guess is that the staff and Allen feel like it will continue to improve on its own even while playing, or that playing twice a week isn't going to make it worse but that practicing every day would. I remember in 2015 it came out that Allen had some leg injury and was using crutches around campus, but was still able to play in games. So who knows.

As for the others, I think Giles is the least important because he overlaps with Amile and thus gives us the least incremental improvement compared to the other two. Tatum will give us some guard depth, which we have none of right now as we start all four of the healthy guards on our roster. I guess if just Bolden was healthy it is possible that he would start alongside Amile and then we'd have a guard to bring in off the bench, but I still think Tatum will be a more significant addition.

Obviously this is all just message board fodder. Want to have all of these guys healthy so we can start gelling as a team and develop a new sort of identity with the new parts.

[CDu]

Resting Grayson would seem to make sense but I guess it becomes a question of whether rest would actually help, and we don't know if it would because we don't even really know what the injury is. I mean it seems logical that no matter what, rest would be better than no rest, but my guess is that the staff and Allen feel like it will continue to improve on its own even while playing, or that playing twice a week isn't going to make it worse but that practicing every day would. I remember in 2015 it came out that Allen had some leg injury and was using crutches around campus, but was still able to play in games. So who knows.

As for the others, I think Giles is the least important because he overlaps with Amile and thus gives us the least incremental improvement compared to the other two. Tatum will give us some guard depth, which we have none of right now as we start all four of the healthy guards on our roster. I guess if just Bolden was healthy it is possible that he would start alongside Amile and then we'd have a guard to bring in off the bench, but I still think Tatum will be a more significant addition.

Obviously this is all just message board fodder. Want to have all of these guys healthy so we can start gelling as a team and develop a new sort of identity with the new parts.

I would argue that Giles and Tatum (in no particular order) provide the biggest benefit.

Giles: gives us legitimate depth, and is perhaps the most talented big man on the roster. Allows us the flexibility to have two bigs in the game whenever necessary, which currently is not feasible without going to Vrankovic or DeLaurier.

Tatum: gives us more versatility in that he can play as a big SF or as a smaller PF. That allows us the ability to go really big (two bigs and Tatum), sort of big (two bigs and three guards), sort of small (one big, Tatum, and three guards), or really small (one big and four guards. Currently we can only play sort of big or really small.

But most importantly, I think those two are the most valuable additions for no other reason than that they are by far the two top prospects on the team. The level of talent they add will be a huge plus.

Getting Bolden back would help in a lot of the ways that getting Giles back would. But I simply think Giles is the better player, so he's the more valuable add.

[gofurman]

Wording issues aside, Tatum absolutely does indeed offer something we don't have: a combo forward (which is what I think the previous poster meant with the term "wing", even though that isn't really the right way to use that term). We have four combo guards, one F/C, and one C. But nobody in our top-six is a SF/PF like Tatum. I think it is quite obvious that Tatum is unlike our four combo guards.

right. This is what I meant. Maybe I didn't use the right terminology. Apologize for that. W Tatum I meant he is more of a forward than the guys we have. To me I look for a PG a SG a SF a PF and a Center. I know K eschews positions. Point being we may have a lot of combo guys but none quite like Tatum. I see our current guys like this (using the typical 1 - 5 definitions).

Jackson is a "1.5 ". not a true PG distributor but the closest we have to that and a very exciting athlete

Allen - an athletic 2 guard.

Jones - a three-and-D 2 guard

Kennard - a crafty 2.5 wing. Maybe a small forward

Amile - a 4.5. Between a PF and Center. Crafty. Skilled. A little thin

But the guy who is missing in this reference is the 'Grant Hill' type. The Miles Bridges or so... a super athletic 3/4. I think Tatum is that guy. So we may have 'wings' but not exactly like Tatum in my opinion

[jv001]

I would argue that Giles and Tatum (in no particular order) provide the biggest benefit.

Giles: gives us legitimate depth, and is perhaps the most talented big man on the roster. Allows us the flexibility to have two bigs in the game whenever necessary, which currently is not feasible without going to Vrankovic or DeLaurier.

Tatum: gives us more versatility in that he can play as a big SF or as a smaller PF. That allows us the ability to go really big (two bigs and Tatum), sort of big (two bigs and three guards), sort of small (one big, Tatum, and three guards), or really small (one big and four guards. Currently we can only play sort of big or really small.

But most importantly, I think those two are the most valuable additions for no other reason than that they are by far the two top prospects on the team. The level of talent they add will be a huge plus.

Getting Bolden back would help in a lot of the ways that getting Giles back would. But I simply think Giles is the better player, so he's the more valuable add.

I do as well. People I know that have seen Giles play, say that he's a real talent. A player that is good on offense and defense. However, I don't know how long it will take him to get back to that form. We should remember Harry has missed a lot of games in the last year+. GoDuke!

[CDu]

I do as well. People I know that have seen Giles play, say that he's a real talent. A player that is good on offense and defense. However, I don't know how long it will take him to get back to that form. We should remember Harry has missed a lot of games in the last year+. GoDuke!

And just to be clear, I don't mean that as a slight to Bolden, who also seems to be a terrific prospect and would/will be hugely valuable when he returns. Just that there was a reason Giles was the #1 recruit and Tatum was generally #2-3.

All three are game-changers though. I just think Giles and Tatum are a bit game-changier.

All that being said, we thankfully don't have to choose ultimately. Hopefully all three are back very soon, and hopefully all three contribute to an amazing season.

[Kedsy]

Wording issues aside, Tatum absolutely does indeed offer something we don't have: a combo forward (which is what I think the previous poster meant with the term "wing", even though that isn't really the right way to use that term). We have four combo guards, one F/C, and one C. But nobody in our top-six is a SF/PF like Tatum. I think it is quite obvious that Tatum is unlike our four combo guards.

OK, but I'm not sure I agree. It's only true if Jayson can adequately defend players (presumably bigger players) that Luke or Matt cannot. On offense, far as I can tell he does pretty much the same things as Grayson and Luke, probably not that much different from Frank, either (though I concede Jayson might be better at those things than our other wings). Maybe that's wrong too if posting up is a big part of his game, but that's not my understanding. It's also not my understanding that exceptional defense is Jayson's calling card. I thought Matt did a pretty good job on Bridges, despite being outsized. To me, it's not clear Jayson would be a big upgrade defensively, in which case I don't really see as a qualitative matter what he offers that we don't already have.

Having said all that, he'll still be a very valuable add. He's more talented and athletic than either Luke or Matt, and maybe Grayson too (though Grayson is pretty talented and athletic). And, as has been discussed elsewhere, having him back would mean we don't have to play our other wings so many minutes, that we aren't as susceptible to foul trouble or injury, and that there won't be much dropoff when one of our wings rests on the bench. I expect he'll be extremely difficult for opponents to guard. I'm just not sure he brings such a unique skillset, as opposed to being really, really good at the things we already employ.

Or I could be wrong about all that. Obviously we'll see which view is more accurate once he gets healthy and starts playing.

[sagegrouse]

All three are game-changers though. I just think Giles and Tatum are a bit game-changier.

Would you accept "gamier-changer" as an alternative?

[OZ]

OK, but I'm not sure I agree. It's only true if Jayson can adequately defend players (presumably bigger players) that Luke or Matt cannot. On offense, far as I can tell he does pretty much the same things as Grayson and Luke, probably not that much different from Frank, either (though I concede Jayson might be better at those things than our other wings). Maybe that's wrong too if posting up is a big part of his game, but that's not my understanding. It's also not my understanding that exceptional defense is Jayson's calling card. I thought Matt did a pretty good job on Bridges, despite being outsized. To me, it's not clear Jayson would be a big upgrade defensively, in which case I don't really see as a qualitative matter what he offers that we don't already have.

Having said all that, he'll still be a very valuable add. He's more talented and athletic than either Luke or Matt, and maybe Grayson too (though Grayson is pretty talented and athletic). And, as has been discussed elsewhere, having him back would mean we don't have to play our other wings so many minutes, that we aren't as susceptible to foul trouble or injury, and that there won't be much dropoff when one of our wings rests on the bench. I expect he'll be extremely difficult for opponents to guard. I'm just not sure he brings such a unique skillset, as opposed to being really, really good at the things we already employ.
Or I could be wrong about all that. Obviously we'll see which view is more accurate once he gets healthy and starts playing.



I am often guilty of interpreting others' thoughts incorrectly; and that may be the case here. However, after reading your evaluation of Jayson, I must say, if you are correct, I am most disappointed. I had heard so many glowing reports on Jayson, I thought he would bring more of an upgrade to our team. It seems, with your analyses, he will only be creating a better substitute situation, to spell what we already have, without much "dropoff." Perhaps, I am underestimating the value of that, but I was expecting more.

[NSDukeFan]

I am often guilty of interpreting others' thoughts incorrectly; and that may be the case here. However, after reading your evaluation of Jayson, I must say, if you are correct, I am most disappointed. I had heard so many glowing reports on Jayson, I thought he would bring more of an upgrade to our team. It seems, with your analyses, he will only be creating a better substitute situation, to spell what we already have, without much "dropoff." Perhaps, I am underestimating the value of that, but I was expecting more.

I believe Jayson is going to be awesome, but how much better can he be than how Luke has been playing?

[CDu]

Would you accept "gamier-changer" as an alternative?

As made-up words go, I'll accept it. Adding those guys will certainly help with our strategery.

[Kedsy]

I am often guilty of interpreting others' thoughts incorrectly; and that may be the case here. However, after reading your evaluation of Jayson, I must say, if you are correct, I am most disappointed. I had heard so many glowing reports on Jayson, I thought he would bring more of an upgrade to our team. It seems, with your analyses, he will only be creating a better substitute situation, to spell what we already have, without much "dropoff." Perhaps, I am underestimating the value of that, but I was expecting more.

Well, I have no more idea than you do. I've just seen scouting reports and CTC on TV. From what little I've seen and heard Jayson is really good on offense and has the potential to be good on defense but doesn't always apply himself on that end (and while he has good length, he doesn't have elite athleticism so in order to be good he'll have to apply himself). Again, from what little I've seen and heard, his offensive game is a face-up, one-on-one scorer kind of game. Good handle for a forward (but not PG good), good driving ability, crafty around the rim, good midrange game with the potential to increase his range. He's not supposed to be a freak athlete and while he can pass it's not the best part of his game.

To me, that doesn't sound so different from Grayson (though Grayson would appear to be a better long-range shooter and possibly a better athlete) or Luke or possibly even Frank (who also might be a better athlete), though Jayson is three, two, and five inches taller than those guys, meaning (a) he's a better NBA prospect; and (b) he can probably elevate above taller defenders better to get off his shot. He's so highly rated, there's a good chance he's better than all three of them, but at least at this point I don't expect him to bring a unique skill set. Does that make sense?

I'm not trying to be negative. I expect him to be good in the horns set, good in the floppy set, good in an iso off a switch -- but several of our players fit that description. I've been thinking of him as a taller Grayson or a shorter Brandon Ingram or a thinner (less posting up, less rebounding) Jabari Parker, something like that, any of which would be pretty darn good.

[Kedsy]

I guess with Jayson playing today we'll have some more data from which to form opinions.

[fisheyes]

And now Marques is playing!!!

[CDu]

I guess with Jayson playing today we'll have some more data from which to form opinions.

I wouldn't expect his first game back against a terrible team will tell us much of anything. Just hope he stays healthy and starts getting his legs back quickly.

[Edouble]

Concern of injuries in order
December 3, 2016 1:22 PM
1) Bolden
2) Giles
3) Tatum

Concern of injuries in order
December 4, 2016 1:22 PM
1) Allen
2) Giles
3) Jackson

[SilkyJ]

Concern of injuries in order
December 3, 2016 1:22 PM
1) Bolden
2) Giles
3) Tatum

Concern of injuries in order
December 4, 2016 1:22 PM
1) Allen
2) Giles
3) Jackson

Giles should be at the top of every list. He was the #1 recruit in HS, with folks using lots of hyperbole to describe him. He is our most skilled player and while every player is unique, he is considered to be the most unique player on the team. Said differently, he does things others can't and is the least "replaceable." While Grayson may be the ACC & Natl Preseason POY and may be the best player on our team when healthy, his outputs on both ends can be replaced 80-90% (I made those numbers up) by Luke, Jayson, Matt and Frank.

Harry is a very skilled big man who can do an array of things on the offensive end and is a very good athlete who is a tenancious rebounder and defender. That combination is not something we can easily replace. If Giles is healthy we are the most legitimate contender to win the Natty. Without him, we are still an excellent team, but he is by far our most skilled player. Every Duke fan should be very anxious to see him play...which I'm hoping happens against UNLV when I get to see my first game in person this year ;)

[budwom]

^ K says Giles is now practicing against contact (human beings) so I'm hoping we see him within two weeks...I agree, he is a monster...

[Indoor66]

^ K says Giles is now practicing against contact (human beings) so I'm hoping we see him within two weeks...I agree, he is a monster...

Not to be a contrarian but I do not bestow monster status until I see monster performances. I look forward to seeing him play - number 1 or not.

[gofurman]

Not to be a contrarian but I do not bestow monster status until I see monster performances. I look forward to seeing him play - number 1 or not.

Right. I hope he is Elton brand. But I think burgess and Shavlik Randolph were in the same hyberole. I want to SEE it. Also, he hasn't played in a year +. That changes things.

But yeah

One day and my post becomes more interesting - Order of significance would now be Allen/ Giles. Then Jackson. But all three are key. Giles is supposed to be awesome. Allen is so key - for goodness sake, the npoy candidate! And Jackaon is the best possible PG we have. And has a speed we don't have elsewhere. He can get in the lane when others can't

[MChambers]

Right. I hope he is Elton brand. But I think burgess and Shavlik Randolph were in the same hyberole. I want to SEE it. Also, he hasn't played in a year +. That changes things.

But yeah

One day and my post becomes more interesting - Order of significance would now be Allen/ Giles. Then Jackson. But all three are key. Giles is supposed to be awesome. Allen is so key - for goodness sake, the npoy candidate! And Jackaon is the best possible PG we have. And has a speed we don't have elsewhere. He can get in the lane when others can't

This thread shows how talented this team can be, when you can have fans arguing who will improve a top five team more: Giles, Tatum, or Bolden. Each of the three will no doubt make significant contributions. My money is on Giles, if he is healthy, because I think he'll make us much more dominant inside on both ends and also add another good passer to the rotation. But I'm really looking forward to seeing the full team against top competition in January.

[UrinalCake]

I wonder if Allen has been healthy at any point this entire season. I remember when they did an open practice on the first day of the season, they held him out with some sort of quad injury. No one thought too much of it as he played in C2C shortly afterward, but it feels like it has been one thing after another. The healthiest he has looked IMO was in the first half of the App State game where he scored 21 points in like 15 minutes. He was moving well, attacking the basket, and hitting threes. But then he pulled up limping earlier in the second half and sat the rest of the game.

He's clearly been able and willing to play through these nagging injuries, but it's hard to say what it will take to get him all the way back to full strength.

[budwom]

Not to be a contrarian but I do not bestow monster status until I see monster performances. I look forward to seeing him play - number 1 or not.

Have you ever seen him play? I have...

[BLPOG]

He's clearly been able and willing to play through these nagging injuries, but it's hard to say what it will take to get him all the way back to full strength.

I'd be fine if K sat him for another game to help with recovery, although I still expect to see him play on Tuesday. I wish we had a little more information about the nature of the injuries.

Hopefully the rest afforded by the sparse schedule during exams/break will be enough.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I'd be fine if K sat him for another game to help with recovery, although I still expect to see him play on Tuesday. I wish we had a little more information about the nature of the injuries.

Hopefully the rest afforded by the sparse schedule during exams/break will be enough.

Outside of Tuesday's game, this is a great time for those not healthy to get plenty of rest. For those who are passionate in watching White, Jeter, Vrank, and Delaurier play, this is your time. December should be nicknamed "The Month of the 12-Man Rotation".

[devildeac]

I'd be fine if K sat him for another game to help with recovery, although I still expect to see him play on Tuesday. I wish we had a little more information about the nature of the injuries.

Hopefully the rest afforded by the sparse schedule during exams/break will be enough.

From the Raleigh N&O this AM: (the dreaded) turf toe.

But I also read in the N&O on Sunday, IIRC that K said (paraphrasing), "It's like turf toe but the pain is more lateral on the toe/s than typical turf toe."

[CDu]

From the Raleigh N&O this AM: (the dreaded) turf toe.

But I also read in the N&O on Sunday, IIRC that K said (paraphrasing), "It's like turf toe but the pain is more lateral on the toe/s than typical turf toe."

No surprise there, really. Unfortunately, turf toe takes a long time to heal. Fortunately, it doesn't necessarily prevent someone from playing.

[slower]

I hope he is Elton brand.

I hope he's Kevin Garnett, but without Garnett's detestable attitude.

[Ichabod Drain]

I hope he's Kevin Garnett, but without Garnett's detestable attitude.

Kevin Garnett isn't Kevin Garnett without his attitude.

[slower]

Kevin Garnett isn't Kevin Garnett without his attitude.

Sad but true, I suppose. Can't stand him.

[MChambers]

Kevin Garnett isn't Kevin Garnett without his attitude.

I'd be okay if that is what Harry Giles is. Or Chris Webber without the baggage.

[Edouble]

I'd be okay if that is what Harry Giles is. Or Chris Webber without the baggage.

CWebb always had his baggage ready... in case he was going to travel.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QPB9NBUG2g

[UrinalCake]

I've heard Shawn Kemp used as a comp for Giles. I suppose you'd have to add "...but without the 20 illegitimate kids"

[DoubleBlue]

I took a look at some Men's College Basketball statistics to see if there is any correlation between injury frequency and athletic gear supplier. For basketball, an assumption would be that the critical gear for performance is the shoes. I'm assuming that the players wear the same shoe brand as their overall sponsor/supplier.

All the major college sports teams use either Nike, Adidas or Under Armour. I looked at the Top 30 schools, concentrating somewhat on the ACC, so its not totally comprehensive, but its a large enough sample to show some trends, if there are any. Nike is predominant, but there have been a few recent moves towards Adidas and Under Armour and I did not go back to look when the switches were made.

I took data from ESPN for the number of players who played in every game (NPWPIEG) for the last 3+ years, starting in 2013-14, up until today, roughly half-way in the 2016-17 season. I'm assuming that NPWPIEG inversely reflects the relative overall injury rate for the team... i.e.- higher numbers reflect a lower injury rate. Since most basketball injuries are lower body, and usually feet and knees, there could be a correlation with the quality of the shoes worn.

Here is the NPWPIEG data, sorted by Sponsor and also by Conference. Also a listing of Duke's NPWPIEG stat for the last 16 years.

7062
7063
7064

My conclusions are:
1. Nike (5.85) appears to be slightly better than both Adidas (5.06) and Under Armour (5.06), with an overall average of 5.38.
2. Duke is right at the overall average for the first 3 years (5.33) but now at only 2 this year (Matt and Luke), after the FSU game with Jefferson out. There are only two other 2's, so this is a rare year.
3. Duke's 16-year average is 5.44, which is slightly better than the overall average.
4. I hesitate to draw any conclusions about the conferences since the sample size is not consistent, although the ACC appears to be slightly better than average.

This is just a quick and dirty analysis but I am encouraged that it does not appear that Duke is statistically off except for this year which is an anomoly, and it does not appear to be related to the athletic gear supplier.

[uh_no]

My conclusions are:
1. Nike (5.85) appears to be slightly better than both Adidas (5.06) and Under Armour (5.06), with an overall average of 5.38.
2. Duke is right at the overall average for the first 3 years (5.33) but now at only 2 this year (Matt and Luke), after the FSU game with Jefferson out. There are only two other 2's, so this is a rare year.
3. Duke's 16-year average is 5.44, which is slightly better than the overall average.
4. I hesitate to draw any conclusions about the conferences since the sample size is not consistent, although the ACC appears to be slightly better than average.

This is just a quick and dirty analysis but I am encouraged that it does not appear that Duke is statistically off except for this year which is an anomoly, and it does not appear to be related to the athletic gear supplier.

Fantastic job.

[gofurman]

Fantastic job.

Yep. Great stuff. Actual data. Only discouraging thing is the title years all have numbers 6 or greater. Which doesn't surprise me. Having players play allows a team to develop. Though missing a game or three is nothing big

[DoubleBlue]

Another observation is that although many of the top rated MBB programs have the best NPWPIEG numbers... the top 5 over the last 3.5 seasons are (in order): Villanova (7.25), FSU (6.75), North Carolina (6.75), Virginia (6.75) and Baylor (6.25)... many other top programs have below average NPWPIEG's such as Kansas (4.25), Duke (4.50), Louisville (5.00) and UCLA (5.00)... Again, Duke is heavily influenced by this year which is a fluke. Kentucky (5.50) and NC State (5.25) are average. So overall, I would say that the correlation of NPWPIEG to National Poll Rating is weak. Remember this is only 30 teams, so I did not include Gonzaga, Creighton or West Virginia, currently in the Top 10.

So... I would say that all hope is not lost, but it's an uphill battle this year for Duke... the odds would be against us having the practice continuity and court time to be able to build the necessary consistency and cohesiveness to make a deep run in the post season... and also our coaching staff now has a lower NCWCIEG... Coach K has quite a challenge ahead when he returns!

7065

[Skitzle]

How do these numbers differentiate an injury from a DNP-CD or is that all just accepted to be part of the stats?

[DoubleBlue]

It doesn't differentiate... which is why this is just a quick and dirty analysis. :cool: