Phase II - 2016-17 (MSU through Elon)

[Troublemaker]

Phase II will take us to the end of the non-conference season. This is usually the most boring Phase because of cupcakes, Finals break, and Winter break. But it’s not going to be boring this year due to the expected return of the 3 injured freshmen.

IMO, listed below are some of the major questions for this Phase. What do you guys think? Feel free to supplement or disagree with both my questions and my answers. We’re just looking to drive discussion here.


Are the freshmen really going to return from injury in this Phase?

Yes, very likely. The alternative is that they’re going to continue to participate in warmups BUT not play in any of the next 6 games. I don’t believe that. They are on the verge.

With Bolden and Tatum, I believe they will play big minutes (25+) right away when they return because they had already participated in summer and October practices; they'd been playing basketball before the injuries, and they know Duke's system. In contrast, with Giles, I think he will be eased in slowly by having him come off the bench for shorter playing stints at first because it's been a long time since he's played basketball.


Can everyone that’s healthy stay healthy? Can Grayson's toe heal during this Phase?

The first question is obligatory for these Phase posts — hopefully the basketball gods will cooperate there. As for Grayson, hopefully his toe can heal without missing a game and/or during Finals break and/or during Winter break. If not, I think it's very possible Duke could rest Grayson once the 3 freshmen are playing. No matter how it happens, hopefully the end result is that at some point over the next few weeks, Grayson speaks the words, "My toe is 100%."


How will Duke change defensively when the freshman trio start playing?

When Duke has its full complement of players, I would expect us to use the 1-2-2 full-court zone press that we tinkered around with before the injuries occurred. I don't know if we'll deploy the zone press for 40 minutes a game, but we'll use it a lot. I see the advantages of the zone press being (1) Temporarily getting the ball out of the hands of opposing PGs like Joel Berry, Dennis Smith, etc and forcing them to work to get it back, (2) eating shot clock, (3) wearing down the opponent physically and mentally, and (4) getting the occasional turnover.

Also, with Bolden and Giles in the rotation, I would hope that Duke's rim protection and defensive rebounding improve. These areas haven't been too shabby so far but I'm hoping they can become elite.


How will the big man rotation be affected by the return of the freshmen?

I'm skeptical at this point that Coach K will go beyond an 8-man rotation. I think the 80 minutes of big-man minutes will be shared by Amile, Marques, Harry, and Jayson (as the backup / smallball 4). I think Chase, Antonio, and Javin will be out of the rotation.

A key question that we can start to answer will be: if the opponent plays small, how will Duke react? Do we downsize and play Jayson at the 4, or do we stay big with Amile at the 4? I could see Jayson averaging anywhere from 5 mpg at PF to 25 mpg at PF. We'll begin to get a sense of how much he'll play there in this Phase.


How will Duke change offensively when the freshman trio start playing?

Probably not too much. We'll see two bigs on the court more often, which means we'll probably utilize the Horns and Floppy offensive sets more often as opposed to running 4-around-1 motion. I haven't been charting plays, but my sense is that Duke's been very effective both in Horns and 4-around-1 motion but not so much in Floppy because defenses have been able to stick with Grayson and Luke through the baseline screens. If we continue to use the Floppy set, hopefully we can free our scorers a little bit better out of it.

Is Amile still going to be a scorer in two-big lineups or will he become more of a facilitator? Right now, Amile is spending much of the game in a perfect scoring environment for him. The court is spread and he has plenty of space to take centers off the dribble (often ending in a right-side bank shot) and for his crafty post moves. How much will cramped spacing affect his scoring?


How will the perimeter rotation be affected by the return of the freshmen?

We'll see how it plays out, but I'm expecting Frank to take the biggest hit in minutes. I think he'll end up being a 10-15 mpg player while Grayson, Jayson, Matt, and Luke are all in the range of 25-35 mpg. Frank has played very well overall but somebody's got to be the 5th perimeter player, and I just don't envision any of the other guys being that. Also, Frank has struggled with freshman errors in team defense and communication, blowing numerous switches during the young season so far.

I have at least 3 more questions for this Phase and will add them in another post, but I wanted to get this post up. What do you guys think about this Phase?

[Troublemaker]

How will Duke change offensively when the freshman trio start playing?

Probably not too much. We'll see two bigs on the court more often, which means we'll probably utilize the Horns and Floppy offensive sets more often as opposed to running 4-around-1 motion. I haven't been charting plays, but my sense is that Duke's been very effective both in Horns and 4-around-1 motion but not so much in Floppy because defenses have been able to stick with Grayson and Luke through the baseline screens. If we continue to use the Floppy set, hopefully we can free our scorers a little bit better out of it.

Is Amile still going to be a scorer in two-big lineups or will he become more of a facilitator? Right now, Amile is spending much of the game in a perfect scoring environment for him. The court is spread and he has plenty of space to take centers off the dribble (often ending in a right-side bank shot) and for his crafty post moves. How much will cramped spacing affect his scoring?


Wanted to add that I expect Giles and Bolden to be more effective rollers than any of our current big men. We'll probably see some successful lobs to them out of pick-n-roll or after they handoff to the guards. I'm also interested in seeing if either will be an effective post scorer.

[wilson]

Great post, Troublemaker. I especially like hearing your thoughts on how we'll integrate the freshmen.
Can you shed a bit of light on why you believe they're "on the verge" of joining their teammates on the court? Hard to discern that from any of the program staff's recent (non-)communication.

[Spanarkel]

[QUOTE=Troublemaker;928573]Phase II will take us to the end of the non-conference season. This is usually the most boring Phase because of cupcakes, Finals break, and Winter break. But it’s not going to be boring this year due to the expected return of the 3 injured freshmen.


[/B][/U]
I'm skeptical at this point that Coach K will go beyond an 8-man rotation. I think the 80 minutes of big-man minutes will be shared by Amile, Marques, Harry, and Jayson (as the backup / smallball 4). I think Chase, Antonio, and Javin will be out of the rotation.



Great post! I think you are right on here, although I would love to see any/all of Chase/Antonio/Javin continue to develop in game situations(, realizing that they can certainly improve in practice as well).

[DukieTiger]

Are the freshmen really going to return from injury in this Phase?

Yes, very likely. The alternative is that they’re going to continue to participate in warmups BUT not play in any of the next 6 games. I don’t believe that. They are on the verge.

With Bolden and Tatum, I believe they will play big minutes (25+) right away when they return because they had already participated in summer and October practices; they'd been playing basketball before the injuries, and they know Duke's system. In contrast, with Giles, I think he will be eased in slowly by having him come off the bench for shorter playing stints at first because it's been a long time since he's played basketball.

I agree that the question for this phase isn't IF the freshmen play, but WHEN. Since Duke really only plays 2 meaningful games in this phase, there are plenty of chances to get all 3 freshmen some heavy minutes- to try to settle the rotation and get them integrated. So I wouldn't be surprised if Giles plays bigger minutes too, Florida game notwithstanding. They're going to need to get acclimated before the end of December.


Can everyone that’s healthy stay healthy? Can Grayson's toe heal during this Phase?

The first question is obligatory for these Phase posts — hopefully the basketball gods will cooperate there. As for Grayson, hopefully his toe can heal without missing a game and/or during Finals break and/or during Winter break. If not, I think it's very possible Duke could rest Grayson once the 3 freshmen are playing. No matter how it happens, hopefully the end result is that at some point over the next few weeks, Grayson speaks the words, "My toe is 100%."

In a lot of seasons, I really hate having multiple 7+ day breaks in the season each December. This is especially true for those Duke teams who start really strong out of the gate, and whose momentum is seemingly slowed briefly by the choppiness of the schedule. I think it's going to be the exact opposite this year. I think having multiple stretches without a game in this phase will be a godsend.

While I need to temper my expectations in memory of Seth Curry, Greg Paulus and others who played injured for an entire season, I think it's reasonable to wonder if this Duke team will be 100% healthy, with hopefully no further injuries, by the end of the phase.



How will Duke change defensively when the freshman trio start playing?

When Duke has its full complement of players, I would expect us to use the 1-2-2 full-court zone press that we tinkered around with before the injuries occurred. I don't know if we'll deploy the zone press for 40 minutes a game, but we'll use it a lot. I see the advantages of the zone press being (1) Temporarily getting the ball out of the hands of opposing PGs like Joel Berry, Dennis Smith, etc and forcing them to work to get it back, (2) eating shot clock, (3) wearing down the opponent physically and mentally, and (4) getting the occasional turnover.

Also, with Bolden and Giles in the rotation, I would hope that Duke's rim protection and defensive rebounding improve. These areas haven't been too shabby so far but I'm hoping they can become elite.

I am in wait-and-see mode about the press, because I feel like we hear about it all the time. There seem to be certain strategic things that we see in the non-conference season each year that end up getting put on the back-burner by the end of December. That said, I could easily see this year being an exception when it comes to a trapping press. They have the depth and the athletes.

Overall, I've actually been pleased with the defense so far this year. Their main struggles, IMO, have been due to foul trouble and fatigue. Those issues (mostly) go away when you add the three freshmen back, plus you add length and positional versatility.

My main question is, what kind of defender will Tatum be? He's the centerpiece, the player who gives Duke the most lineup versatility, and the player who has the size to guard the Josh Jacksons of the world (sorry Javin). If he can be a solid defender, this team's potential is through the roof.


How will the big man rotation be affected by the return of the freshmen?

I'm skeptical at this point that Coach K will go beyond an 8-man rotation. I think the 80 minutes of big-man minutes will be shared by Amile, Marques, Harry, and Jayson (as the backup / smallball 4). I think Chase, Antonio, and Javin will be out of the rotation.

A key question that we can start to answer will be: if the opponent plays small, how will Duke react? Do we downsize and play Jayson at the 4, or do we stay big with Amile at the 4? I could see Jayson averaging anywhere from 5 mpg at PF to 25 mpg at PF. We'll begin to get a sense of how much he'll play there in this Phase.

I really hope that Duke doesn't go small too much. I think they should focus on dominating teams with their size. If a team goes small and spreads you out, just pack it in and dominate the boards. That doesn't really seem to be K's MO though. He'd rather run teams off the 3pt line and sacrifice some rim protection and rebounding.

Not to mention the fact that he loves to dominate teams offensively with small lineups. Which really begs the question- what is the offense going to look like in relation to the frontcourt rotation? Are we going to try to run an offense with two bigs? Can we do that when neither is a 3-pt threat?

I think the defensive potential for Duke is much greater with a big lineup, while the offensive potential is marginally and debatably greater with the small lineup. That's what makes me hope he keeps a bigger frontcourt rotation and plays 2 bigs at a time.

On that note, I could see Chase staying in the rotation for a while. He's been hurt for the past week, but even so, I feel a lot better about Duke's defense when he's in the game. He's going to become an impact defensive player and I think there's a place for that in the rotation this year.

I could also see Javin getting 2-4 minutes per game IF Duke runs the press as much as you think they might. Not that I think it will happen, but I could see him being impactful out of the press with his quickness. (Can I just say that he's one of the quickest players I've ever watched?)


How will Duke change offensively when the freshman trio start playing?

Probably not too much. We'll see two bigs on the court more often, which means we'll probably utilize the Horns and Floppy offensive sets more often as opposed to running 4-around-1 motion. I haven't been charting plays, but my sense is that Duke's been very effective both in Horns and 4-around-1 motion but not so much in Floppy because defenses have been able to stick with Grayson and Luke through the baseline screens. If we continue to use the Floppy set, hopefully we can free our scorers a little bit better out of it.

Is Amile still going to be a scorer in two-big lineups or will he become more of a facilitator? Right now, Amile is spending much of the game in a perfect scoring environment for him. The court is spread and he has plenty of space to take centers off the dribble (often ending in a right-side bank shot) and for his crafty post moves. How much will cramped spacing affect his scoring?

Agree with much of this. My main question is around spacing when playing with two bigs. I think Amile will be fine, but I do wonder how Giles and Bolden will fit. We've heard some things to suggest that those guys have a little bit of range. Will they have enough to help with spacing? Will they step out and shoot occasionally?

I hope so, because again- I want two bigs on the floor for the defensive potential it brings.

I guess the other offensive question is around offensive rebounding. So far this year, Amile is having a career-low year on the offensive glass (by a lot). Going small has taken away one of his strengths. Do they put more of an emphasis on crashing the offensive boards? You'd think that would be one of this team's strengths, once they get healthy.


How will the perimeter rotation be affected by the return of the freshmen?

We'll see how it plays out, but I'm expecting Frank to take the biggest hit in minutes. I think he'll end up being a 10-15 mpg player while Grayson, Jayson, Matt, and Luke are all in the range of 25-35 mpg. Frank has played very well overall but somebody's got to be the 5th perimeter player, and I just don't envision any of the other guys being that. Also, Frank has struggled with freshman errors in team defense and communication, blowing numerous switches during the young season so far.

I agree Frank will lose some minutes, but he's averaging 30 mpg right now, so dropping to 10-15 is a huge dip. I think they need him to play through his freshman mistakes because he's going to be the best on-ball defender by the end of the year. You'll want him on the Berrys, Foxes or Masons of the world by the end of the year.

I think Matt and Luke will both lose a decent amount of minutes. Both are up around 35 and I could see both ending up around 25, with Frank ending up around 20. Grayson seems about right at 30 mpg. Of course this all depends on how much they play Tatum at the 4.

Thanks for the great write-up!

[Saratoga2]

[QUOTE=Troublemaker;928573]Phase II will take us to the end of the non-conference season. This is usually the most boring Phase because of cupcakes, Finals break, and Winter break. But it’s not going to be boring this year due to the expected return of the 3 injured freshmen.


[/B][/U]
I'm skeptical at this point that Coach K will go beyond an 8-man rotation. I think the 80 minutes of big-man minutes will be shared by Amile, Marques, Harry, and Jayson (as the backup / smallball 4). I think Chase, Antonio, and Javin will be out of the rotation.



Great post! I think you are right on here, although I would love to see any/all of Chase/Antonio/Javin continue to develop in game situations(, realizing that they can certainly improve in practice as well).

Not having seen any of the 3 injured freshmen play as yet means what I can envision is only speculative. Clearly each of them will have to adjust to playing defense at the DIV I level. We will need to be patient as they get lost and pick up gratuitous fouls. An intriguing lineup to me is with Amile and Harry in the front court and Jaspon, Grayson and ether Luke or Matt in the back court. I can't remember a time when Duke could put such a big and athletic lineup on the floor. It probably wouldn't be used that often but would be a matchup nightmare for opposing teams.

Having the freshmen back also means that Amile can get a break during games and be both fresh and unconcerned about fouls.

[Spanarkel]

Unless Jayson proves to be more of a 3 point threat than Draft Express feels that he is, this year's Duke team looks as if it will have "only" 4 legitimate threats from behind the arc. Most Duke teams of recent vintage seem to have 5-6 guys who have made >/=25 treys over the season, with the '14-'15 squad being an exception due to Sulaimon's dismissal roughly mid-season(and Grayson's limited minutes). I certainly don't think that this year's team will have any problem scoring the ball at all. Just an observation: I for one would be glad to see a more even distribution between inside/outside scoring. Welcome any comments on this.

[Troublemaker]

Great post, Troublemaker. I especially like hearing your thoughts on how we'll integrate the freshmen.
Can you shed a bit of light on why you believe they're "on the verge" of joining their teammates on the court? Hard to discern that from any of the program staff's recent (non-)communication.

Going through warmups has previously meant a return is imminent (https://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaab-the-dagger/kyrie-irving-warms-duke-closer-return-232625105.html), but even without Kyrie serving as an example, I think that's what I would've guessed anyway about the situation. The first time the freshmen warmed up with the rest of the team was two games ago against William & Mary. I just can't see them going 8 games over the course of a month only warming up and NOT playing. What an extended tease that would be!

[English]

Going through warmups has previously meant a return is imminent (https://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaab-the-dagger/kyrie-irving-warms-duke-closer-return-232625105.html), but even without Kyrie serving as an example, I think that's what I would've guessed anyway about the situation. The first time the freshmen warmed up with the rest of the team was two games ago against William & Mary. I just can't see them going 8 games over the course of a month only warming up and NOT playing. What an extended tease that would be!

Completely agree--actions speak louder than words (especially when the staff are barely speaking any words). I anticipate seeing these guys for varying durations of play through this phase. I'm not sure I've been this excited for a player's (players'?) return since the freak KI injury.

From the coaches' own admission, though, Harry is nearest a return > Bolden is nearing, but not quite there > Tatum is the furthest from the court (and although he's been sporting the team warmup suit, he's not really been participating in warmups as much as the other two). With that spectrum in mind, the staff has also mentioned that Giles hasn't yet participated in any contact basketball activities. Extrapolating (which may or may not be fair or have any predictive value), the injured frosh closest to returning to game action has yet to begin contact basketball, so, there's that.

Still, I'm rather delighted that I haven't seen any "I'm assuming we don't see [insert injured Duke freshman] for a single game this season" nonsense in awhile. Chicken Little must've been busy with the turkey and stuffing over the holiday break.

[ChillinDuke]

Completely agree--actions speak louder than words (especially when the staff are barely speaking any words). I anticipate seeing these guys for varying durations of play through this phase. I'm not sure I've been this excited for a player's (players'?) return since the freak KI injury.

From the coaches' own admission, though, Harry is nearest a return > Bolden is nearing, but not quite there > Tatum is the furthest from the court (and although he's been sporting the team warmup suit, he's not really been participating in warmups as much as the other two). With that spectrum in mind, the staff has also mentioned that Giles hasn't yet participated in any contact basketball activities. Extrapolating (which may or may not be fair or have any predictive value), the injured frosh closest to returning to game action has yet to begin contact basketball, so, there's that.

Still, I'm rather delighted that I haven't seen any "I'm assuming we don't see [insert injured Duke freshman] for a single game this season" nonsense in awhile. Chicken Little must've been busy with the turkey and stuffing over the holiday break.

The entire injury fact pattern is bizarre.

1) Giles gets a three-year-old knee injury scoped just before start of season. Hmmm, ok, maybe he needed it. But the timing is certainly non-standard; kid had been on campus a while already.
2) Tatum gets injured in the first ever Duke Pro Day.
3) Bolden has a, to my knowledge, nondescript and nonpublic "lower leg injury."
4) Giles is cleared for non-contact practice.
5) Giles is the closest to return to action despite not participating in contact yet and presumably having the least practice time of the three freshmen?
6) Jeter writhes in pain for an extended period after turning his ankle. Doesn't miss a game.
7) Allen is hobbling in almost every single game. Takes an absolutely nasty looking fall against Kansas. Comes up lame from what looked like zero contact against App State, emphasizing an apparent toe injury. Doesn't miss a game (yet).
8) Duke is 6-1, ranked #5 AP, and ranked #1 KenPom.

The above facts have led to some truly logic-defying results in terms of playing expectations. I, for one, still have no idea what Bolden's injury even is. Harry Giles, the guy with the least practice time, zero contact, and 3 knee surgeries is apparently closest to playing. Grayson Allen hasn't looked healthy all season and has repeatedly had to come out of games and go to the locker room, but he is cleared to play every game.

Duke is 6-1.

Lot of questions. Bizarre start to the year.

- Chillin

[Kedsy]

Nice phase post, Troublemaker. Especially for a Phase like Phase II, the specificity of your questions should raise some good discussion.



How will Duke change offensively when the freshman trio start playing?

Probably not too much. We'll see two bigs on the court more often, which means we'll probably utilize the Horns and Floppy offensive sets more often as opposed to running 4-around-1 motion. I haven't been charting plays, but my sense is that Duke's been very effective both in Horns and 4-around-1 motion but not so much in Floppy because defenses have been able to stick with Grayson and Luke through the baseline screens. If we continue to use the Floppy set, hopefully we can free our scorers a little bit better out of it.

I think we'll continue to see plenty of the floppy set. I expect we'll get better at it once Grayson is fully healthy.



How will the big man rotation be affected by the return of the freshmen?

I'm skeptical at this point that Coach K will go beyond an 8-man rotation. I think the 80 minutes of big-man minutes will be shared by Amile, Marques, Harry, and Jayson (as the backup / smallball 4). I think Chase, Antonio, and Javin will be out of the rotation.

A key question that we can start to answer will be: if the opponent plays small, how will Duke react? Do we downsize and play Jayson at the 4, or do we stay big with Amile at the 4? I could see Jayson averaging anywhere from 5 mpg at PF to 25 mpg at PF. We'll begin to get a sense of how much he'll play there in this Phase.



How will the perimeter rotation be affected by the return of the freshmen?

We'll see how it plays out, but I'm expecting Frank to take the biggest hit in minutes. I think he'll end up being a 10-15 mpg player while Grayson, Jayson, Matt, and Luke are all in the range of 25-35 mpg. Frank has played very well overall but somebody's got to be the 5th perimeter player, and I just don't envision any of the other guys being that. Also, Frank has struggled with freshman errors in team defense and communication, blowing numerous switches during the young season so far.

When it comes to Frank's minutes, these two points are not independent. If Jayson plays on the heavy end of your 5 to 25 PF minutes, then Frank should be able to exceed your 10 to 15 mpg prediction. In that situation, either Harry (due to coming along slowly from his injuries) or Marques would end up in the 10 to 15 minute role.



My main question is, what kind of defender will Tatum be? He's the centerpiece, the player who gives Duke the most lineup versatility, and the player who has the size to guard the Josh Jacksons of the world (sorry Javin). If he can be a solid defender, this team's potential is through the roof.

I agree this is a big question. His reputation out of high school was a sometimes indifferent defender who can be a good one if he bears down. Coach K is the perfect coach to remedy that sort of defensive malaise, but whether he can succeed at forging Jayson into a strong defender in just over half a season remains to be seen. He never got Jabari or Jahlil over that hump.


I think the defensive potential for Duke is much greater with a big lineup, while the offensive potential is marginally and debatably greater with the small lineup. That's what makes me hope he keeps a bigger frontcourt rotation and plays 2 bigs at a time.



I agree Frank will lose some minutes, but he's averaging 30 mpg right now, so dropping to 10-15 is a huge dip. I think they need him to play through his freshman mistakes because he's going to be the best on-ball defender by the end of the year. You'll want him on the Berrys, Foxes or Masons of the world by the end of the year.

Again, your two points are related. If we play two bigs most of the time, there are only 120 perimeter minutes to distribute among five guys.



I think Matt and Luke will both lose a decent amount of minutes. Both are up around 35 and I could see both ending up around 25, with Frank ending up around 20. Grayson seems about right at 30 mpg. Of course this all depends on how much they play Tatum at the 4.


All this makes sense, but it's not really Coach K's style to play his perimeter guys so little. The top two perimeter minute-getters are usually in the 30 to 35 range. Assuming Grayson and Matt split 65 minutes and that Luke plays around 25 mpg, that leaves only 30 perimeter mpg for Jayson and Frank to split. If Jayson takes 15 to 20 of them (with his remaining 10 mpg in the big rotation) then Frank would get 10 to 15. If we go small for more of the game, then Frank's minutes would increase.

Obviously, K could decide to spread the minutes around more, along the lines you suggest, but he hasn't really done that in the past.



On that note, I could see Chase staying in the rotation for a while. He's been hurt for the past week, but even so, I feel a lot better about Duke's defense when he's in the game. He's going to become an impact defensive player and I think there's a place for that in the rotation this year.

I could also see Javin getting 2-4 minutes per game IF Duke runs the press as much as you think they might. Not that I think it will happen, but I could see him being impactful out of the press with his quickness. (Can I just say that he's one of the quickest players I've ever watched?)

Yeah, Chase (and to a lesser extent, Javin and Antonio) will get lots of garbage time minutes, but once Harry and Marques are ready for their full complement of minutes, I don't think it's realistic to pencil in Chase for more than a few non-garbage time mpg, and probably none for anyone else. It's just math. We'll already be struggling to find minutes for Frank on the perimeter.



I guess the other offensive question is around offensive rebounding. So far this year, Amile is having a career-low year on the offensive glass (by a lot). Going small has taken away one of his strengths. Do they put more of an emphasis on crashing the offensive boards? You'd think that would be one of this team's strengths, once they get healthy.

This is a good point and I hope you're right that we focus on offensive rebounding going forward. As I've posted elsewhere, there's a very strong correlation between Duke's offensive rebounding superiority and Duke's post-season success.


An intriguing lineup to me is with Amile and Harry in the front court and Jaspon, Grayson and ether Luke or Matt in the back court. I can't remember a time when Duke could put such a big and athletic lineup on the floor. It probably wouldn't be used that often but would be a matchup nightmare for opposing teams.

Actually, once we're healthy, I expect a Harry/Amile/Jayson/Grayson/Luke OR Matt lineup to be our most commonly used lineup. So be happy!

[superdave]

Actually, once we're healthy, I expect a Harry/Amile/Jayson/Grayson/Luke OR Matt lineup to be our most commonly used lineup. So be happy!

Someone used to chart lineups by times used, total time and +/- on the EK Board. Do any of the advanced stats websites track that stuff?

[niveklaen]

Someone used to chart lineups by times used, total time and +/- on the EK Board. Do any of the advanced stats websites track that stuff?

There is a +/- thread pinned to the top of the forum with that info for Duke, not sure about what the pay sites might have

[DukieInBrasil]

one thing that would be interesting to me would be to gauge whether a healthy (ie, no Grayson toe-injury) iteration of the team that played MSU would be able to compete for titles in the ACC & NCAA tourneys. So far our data is pretty inconclusive, although not without insight: we've got a solid win over URI, another solid win over MSU and a close loss to Kansas (that i remain convinced we could have won had Vrank been used to slow down KU's Azubuike, who totally destroyed Jeter on the boards). My bet is that a healthy iteration of the team we've seen so far, would make the E8, maybe the F4, with a national championship a long-shot possibility as an upset.
If we were to run this fantasy sport scenario with different iterations for including one of the injured Fr. but not the others, my bet is that Jayson Tatum raises the ceiling of this team more than either Bolden or Giles b/c he gives Duke a skillset/size that we don't currently have on the court or on the bench. Our current on-court group + Jayson is probably a National Championship quality team.
Adding Giles only to our current squad probably also makes us a Natty contender, but maybe slightly lower odds.
Adding Bolden only, probably makes us an outside shot at the Natty, but still better than our current odds.
Adding Tatum + either Giles or Bolden makes us prohibitive favorites.
Adding Giles+Bolden but not Tatum probably also makes us strong favorites.
Adding all three would probably collapse the time-space continuum should it be bet against. I keed, i keed.

[Troublemaker]

one thing that would be interesting to me would be to gauge whether a healthy (ie, no Grayson toe-injury) iteration of the team that played MSU would be able to compete for titles in the ACC & NCAA tourneys. So far our data is pretty inconclusive, although not without insight: we've got a solid win over URI, another solid win over MSU and a close loss to Kansas (that i remain convinced we could have won had Vrank been used to slow down KU's Azubuike, who totally destroyed Jeter on the boards). My bet is that a healthy iteration of the team we've seen so far, would make the E8, maybe the F4, with a national championship a long-shot possibility as an upset.
If we were to run this fantasy sport scenario with different iterations for including one of the injured Fr. but not the others, my bet is that Jayson Tatum raises the ceiling of this team more than either Bolden or Giles b/c he gives Duke a skillset/size that we don't currently have on the court or on the bench. Our current on-court group + Jayson is probably a National Championship quality team.
Adding Giles only to our current squad probably also makes us a Natty contender, but maybe slightly lower odds.
Adding Bolden only, probably makes us an outside shot at the Natty, but still better than our current odds.
Adding Tatum + either Giles or Bolden makes us prohibitive favorites.
Adding Giles+Bolden but not Tatum probably also makes us strong favorites.
Adding all three would probably collapse the time-space continuum should it be bet against. I keed, i keed.

An interesting question for sure, with the caveat that obviously anyone discussing this question would love to have all 3 back ASAP.

But, if I had to choose one, I would choose Bolden or Giles. I think we have 4 high-level perimeter players that could easily cover 120 perimeter minutes (provided no more injuries occur), and what we need most of all is more high-level big man talent/depth. I would lean Bolden because he has more of a reputation as a rim protector, and my eye-test of him in preseason exhibitions matched what the scouting reports say. If we had Bolden yesterday against MSU, we could've really imposed our will defensively; not only take away their threes and force them into turnovers (both of which we managed to accomplish) but ALSO lower their percentage around the rim.

[superdave]

There is a +/- thread pinned to the top of the forum with that info for Duke, not sure about what the pay sites might have

Thanks - I must have tried my brain to ignore the pinned threads.

[jv001]

An interesting question for sure, with the caveat that obviously anyone discussing this question would love to have all 3 back ASAP.

But, if I had to choose one, I would choose Bolden or Giles. I think we have 4 high-level perimeter players that could easily cover 120 perimeter minutes (provided no more injuries occur), and what we need most of all is more high-level big man talent/depth. I would lean Bolden because he has more of a reputation as a rim protector, and my eye-test of him in preseason exhibitions matched what the scouting reports say. If we had Bolden yesterday against MSU, we could've really imposed our will defensively; not only take away their threes and force them into turnovers (both of which we managed to accomplish) but ALSO lower their percentage around the rim.

I agree with you in that we need Giles and/or Bolden more than Tatum. I think we have enough perimeter firepower if Grayson is healthy. Giles and Bolden give us depth in the frontcourt and from what I've heard, both are good defensive players. Now with all three(4 counting Grayson) at 100%, we should be prohibitive favorites. GoDuke!

[NSDukeFan]

I agree with you in that we need Giles and/or Bolden more than Tatum. I think we have enough perimeter firepower if Grayson is healthy. Giles and Bolden give us depth in the frontcourt and from what I've heard, both are good defensive players. Now with all three(4 counting Grayson) at 100%, we should be prohibitive favorites. GoDuke!

I'm picking Giles, as I think he offers rim protection and a little more offensive and defensive versatility than Bolden. I also believe he is likely to be a bigger upgrade over Jeter than Bolden would be and a much larger upgrade than Tatum over whoever on the perimeter has to play less.

I disagree a bit with posts that have said that he would be our only true wing or big wing as Luke and Matt are plenty big wings for college.

[English]

An interesting question for sure, with the caveat that obviously anyone discussing this question would love to have all 3 back ASAP.

But, if I had to choose one, I would choose Bolden or Giles. I think we have 4 high-level perimeter players that could easily cover 120 perimeter minutes (provided no more injuries occur), and what we need most of all is more high-level big man talent/depth. I would lean Bolden because he has more of a reputation as a rim protector, and my eye-test of him in preseason exhibitions matched what the scouting reports say. If we had Bolden yesterday against MSU, we could've really imposed our will defensively; not only take away their threes and force them into turnovers (both of which we managed to accomplish) but ALSO lower their percentage around the rim.

For me, if we're talking about any/all of these players coming back at 100%, the conversation stops with Giles. The guys is 6'10, mega-athletic, a killer on the boards (both ends), and has a finely developed offensive game (passing included). He's been lauded for his motor, and his defense is not a liability. If teams are going to double team anyone (a la 2015 Oak), it's Giles--and obviously, with the kind of firepower we trot out on the perimeter right now, try double teaming anyone. Giles has range to the elbows, so spacing isn't a killer for guys like Chase and Amile running in any 2-big lineups. I'm giddy waiting to see what Giles is working with when he returns.

Tatum is next for me, but admittedly, I'm very intrigued to see what type of execution and effort he provides on defense. His offense, in my mind, is beyond question--as I've posted before, he's widely considered the best offensive player in a loaded freshman class, and a matchup nightmare. However, as has been mentioned, the Duke team as currently constructed can already fill it up in a hurry. Will Tatum's offensive contributions overshadow any defensive shortcomings, and if yes, overshadow them more than the net contributions that Giles or Bolden would bring. I'm optimistic that the staff can focus Tatum on that end, but I'd really like to see it first. Although we disagree, I'd echo Troublemaker's point about what the team as currently constructed could use more, and from my seat in the lounge chair, it's in the frontcourt.

Bolden is exciting in as far as he's a big bodied space eater who can board and block shots. His offensive game is less refined than his frosh counterparts, and again, I'm intrigued but unsure if his mastery of team defensive concepts will maximize his potential on the defensive end. There are plenty of massive, young frontcourt players who don't get it right away and take some time to fully show their potential as rim protectors. I can't wait to have him back, of course.

[Eakane]

Can you imagine the ROAR if the three of them reported to the scorers table together?

But it's wishful thinking. I believe K will continue to play it cagey. While it would be ideal for them all to get big minutes in the December games, and fully ready for ACC play, The primary consideration of course is whether they are beyond question healthy. Any hint of pain or discomfort probably means more time riding the pine. At the MSU game, the few shots we got of them showed that they are itching to play every bit as much as we are itching to see them go. But I think even if that box is checked, none of them will see big minutes right away. Anybody who has played knows that there is a difference between being in top shape and being game ready. It cannot be replicated in practice. There's no reason to push it. 10-12 minutes a game will be fine to start. Not just garbage time either.

One of the pleasures of being a Duke fan is the repeated history of players stepping up when starters have been injured. Hurley, Hill, Brand, and on... Surely the silver lining in this saga has been the extended PT for Jeter, Jackson and Kennard. There's nobody I root harder for than Jeter, and Jackson and Kennard's play pretty much demands that they continue to see the floor. I trust that K will blend them in seamlessly, and I can't wait to see the way he does it, and how it unfolds.

Still, can you just imagine the ROAR?

[Dukehky]

If the big 3 aren't back yet, we still need to start playing Javin and Vrank more.

Luke has sat for 5 minutes in the last 3 games we played against real opponents. Matt a similar number.

I would be fine sacrificing some losses (maybe) to some of the better teams over the next month to make sure our guys aren't worn down by tournament time, which they will be.

If they're not back within the next month, and our six guys are playing all the minutes, they aren't going to be able to compete at a high enough level in March.

I'm getting worried. 6 guys is not enough. Let Javin come in and foul. Let Vrank play the middle of a zone and try to grab rebounds.

Hopefully it's all moot and the 3 kids come back and can take some of the pressure off the six, especially the guards.

[Spanarkel]

If the big 3 aren't back yet, we still need to start playing Javin and Vrank more.

Luke has sat for 5 minutes in the last 3 games we played against real opponents. Matt a similar number.

I would be fine sacrificing some losses (maybe) to some of the better teams over the next month to make sure our guys aren't worn down by tournament time, which they will be.

If they're not back within the next month, and our six guys are playing all the minutes, they aren't going to be able to compete at a high enough level in March.

I'm getting worried. 6 guys is not enough. Let Javin come in and foul. Let Vrank play the middle of a zone and try to grab rebounds.

Hopefully it's all moot and the 3 kids come back and can take some of the pressure off the six, especially the guards.



Agree totally. The minutes distribution in the AppState game was nice: 9 players with >/=15 minutes and only two(Frank with 32/Luke with 30)in the 30s. Look forward to seeing Vrank and Javin continue to improve.

[Troublemaker]

I haven't been charting plays, but my sense is that Duke's been very effective both in Horns and 4-around-1 motion but not so much in Floppy because defenses have been able to stick with Grayson and Luke through the baseline screens. If we continue to use the Floppy set, hopefully we can free our scorers a little bit better out of it.



I think we'll continue to see plenty of the floppy set. I expect we'll get better at it once Grayson is fully healthy.

Our floppy set has gotten a lot better. What we've done is instead of running both Luke and Grayson simultaneously through the car wash of baseline screens, we've decided to only run Luke by himself. And he's gotten free and made plays.

Previously, when we struggled with floppy, it was always double floppy. Now we're running single floppy and it's working much better.

[Troublemaker]

I guess the other offensive question is around offensive rebounding. So far this year, Amile is having a career-low year on the offensive glass (by a lot).



This is a good point and I hope you're right that we focus on offensive rebounding going forward. As I've posted elsewhere, there's a very strong correlation between Duke's offensive rebounding superiority and Duke's post-season success.

Amile has started to become beastly on the offensive boards again. I think if we remove the first 3 games of the season (in which he only had 2 O-Rebs), he'd be right at his career average.

If we start to play bigger lineups more often as Bolden and Giles become more ready, it'll be important to pound opponents on the offensive boards in order to make up for lesser spacing.

[JohnJ]

Our floppy set has gotten a lot better. What we've done is instead of running both Luke and Grayson simultaneously through the car wash of baseline screens, we've decided to only run Luke by himself. And he's gotten free and made plays.

Previously, when we struggled with floppy, it was always double floppy. Now we're running single floppy and it's working much better.

Can someone explain what exactly the "Floppy" and "Horns" set are for me so that I can follow this conversation. I have seen these mentioned numerous times but have never seen a definition or description.

[DukeHoo]

Can someone explain what exactly the "Floppy" and "Horns" set are for me so that I can follow this conversation. I have seen these mentioned numerous times but have never seen a definition or description.

Floppy (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhAFo75cDdk)is a set where you put a shooter under the basket, with players screening on either side. The shooter can go in either direction, and potentially open up the floor for the screeners to cut to the basket or pop out for an open jumper.

Horns usually has the 1 at the top, the 4 and 5 at the top of the key, and the 2 and 3 in the corner. You can run a lot of pick and roll (with the option to kick to shooters) out of Horns, as well as running the screens off the ball or clear the floor for drivers. This video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKE3JQRVIVA) has a good example of how Duke generally runs Horns.

These are some very basic explanations, since there are a lot of different ways to run both sets.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Floppy (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhAFo75cDdk)is a set where you put a shooter under the basket, with players screening on either side. The shooter can go in either direction, and potentially open up the floor for the screeners to cut to the basket or pop out for an open jumper.

Horns usually has the 1 at the top, the 4 and 5 at the top of the key, and the 2 and 3 in the corner. You can run a lot of pick and roll (with the option to kick to shooters) out of Horns, as well as running the screens off the ball or clear the floor for drivers. This video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKE3JQRVIVA) has a good example of how Duke generally runs Horns.

These are some very basic explanations, since there are a lot of different ways to run both sets.

Pitchforks for the extremely well laid out and simple explanation. Love it!

[MChambers]

Nice explanation. I though floppy had something to do with Luke's hair.

[DukeHoo]

Pitchforks for the extremely well laid out and simple explanation. Love it!

Thank you! My mom is a teacher, and told me that for every question asked there are always at least 3 other people with that same question.


Nice explanation. I though floppy had something to do with Luke's hair.

It's also a happy coincidence that Luke is such a good fit for Floppy in more than one way.

[Troublemaker]

Thanks for that post, DukeHoo. I'll throw up some GIFs to help visualize. Let's start with Floppy.

Here's a double floppy set with BOTH Grayson and Luke running through the car wash of Amile and Chase setting screens. The point guard (Matt) is like a QB progressing through his WR reads. He looked off Luke to the right but when Matt looked left, Grayson was even better covered by Frank Mason. So Duke had to reset.

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/BlackMelodicArmednylonshrimp-size_restricted.gif

[Troublemaker]

Here's a single floppy set. Matt is joined up top by Frank, so only Luke uses the car wash. Luke is great at using using pump fakes to free himself from defenders chasing him.

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/ForkedMildClingfish-size_restricted.gif

[ChillinDuke]

Floppy (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhAFo75cDdk)is a set where you put a shooter under the basket, with players screening on either side. The shooter can go in either direction, and potentially open up the floor for the screeners to cut to the basket or pop out for an open jumper.

Horns usually has the 1 at the top, the 4 and 5 at the top of the key, and the 2 and 3 in the corner. You can run a lot of pick and roll (with the option to kick to shooters) out of Horns, as well as running the screens off the ball or clear the floor for drivers. This video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKE3JQRVIVA) has a good example of how Duke generally runs Horns.

These are some very basic explanations, since there are a lot of different ways to run both sets.


Thanks for that post, DukeHoo. I'll throw up some GIFs to help visualize. Let's start with Floppy.

Here's a double floppy set with BOTH Grayson and Luke running through the car wash of Amile and Chase setting screens. The point guard (Matt) is like a QB progressing through his WR reads. He looked off Luke to the right but when Matt looked left, Grayson was even better covered by Frank Mason. So Duke had to reset.

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/BlackMelodicArmednylonshrimp-size_restricted.gif

This thread is the epitome of what makes DBR awesome.

More gifs, please! More gifs!

- Chillin

[Troublemaker]

I believe this was the only instance of double floppy that we ran against Florida. It's just too much to ask someone who isn't a true PG to keep his dribble, track two receivers, and make the right pass. There's too much noise there, and Matt gets stripped. I like just using Luke by himself in floppy.

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/ElasticRepulsiveAvocet-size_restricted.gif

[JohnJ]

Floppy (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhAFo75cDdk)is a set where you put a shooter under the basket, with players screening on either side. The shooter can go in either direction, and potentially open up the floor for the screeners to cut to the basket or pop out for an open jumper.

Horns usually has the 1 at the top, the 4 and 5 at the top of the key, and the 2 and 3 in the corner. You can run a lot of pick and roll (with the option to kick to shooters) out of Horns, as well as running the screens off the ball or clear the floor for drivers. This video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKE3JQRVIVA) has a good example of how Duke generally runs Horns.

These are some very basic explanations, since there are a lot of different ways to run both sets.

Thanks. This really helps. Sporks coming your way...

[Troublemaker]

That end of half play that everyone loved was a single floppy set for Luke. Obviously floppy does not have to end in Luke shooting. He can read how the defense is reacting to him and make the correct pass to the open man.

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/GaseousOffensiveBasenji-size_restricted.gif

Let's move onto Horns.

[DukeHoo]

I believe this was the only instance of double floppy that we ran against Florida. It's just too much to ask someone who isn't a true PG to keep his dribble, track two receivers, and make the right pass. There's too much noise there, and Matt gets stripped. I like just using Luke by himself in floppy.

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/ElasticRepulsiveAvocet-size_restricted.gif

Thanks for the gifs Troublemaker. I think those really illustrate how Floppy works in action.

I also like the idea of sticking with the single Floppy. The only guys who seem capable of making that read are Grayson and Luke, and having either of them at the top would defeat the purpose of running a double floppy in the first place. Matt and Frank just don't read the floor well enough.

[DukeHoo]

Thanks. This really helps. Sporks coming your way...

You're welcome. Always glad to help.

[Troublemaker]

That end of half play that everyone loved was a single floppy set for Luke. Obviously floppy does not have to end in Luke shooting. He can read how the defense is reacting to him and make the correct pass to the open man.

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/GaseousOffensiveBasenji-size_restricted.gif

Let's move onto Horns.

BTW, I was negligent to not mention that Luke made his defender fall (but I hope everyone noticed anyway). Luke set him up brilliantly to run into Amile. Luke has become a great mover off-the-ball and a master of all sorts of fakes.

[Troublemaker]

As mentioned, the initial alignment of the Horns set places your C and PF at the elbows to receive an entry pass and your wings in the corners. From there, you can run all sorts of actions out of it. Here's a VERY common action that Duke uses. Amile receives the entry pass, and the other big (in this case Matt due to our injured big men) sets an off-ball screen for Grayson, which allows him to receive the handoff from Amile with space between him and a trailing defender.

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/EnragedDescriptiveIguanodon-size_restricted.gif

Even though Grayson misses, Duke will take an open three from the top of the key anytime. Sometimes Grayson will shot-fake the trailing defender and drive instead. There are all sorts of ways he can use the advantage he has when he receives the handoff.

[Troublemaker]

The above Horns play involves a handoff to the wing on the opposite side from the entry pass. Courtesy of Luke Winn, here's a video of several Horns plays in which Luke receives the handoff from the same side as the entry pass:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nCGuKEK48NQ

Note: Winn refers to Horns as the "A-Set" since you can look at it as the players are forming an "A" in their alignment.

[devildeac]

Floppy (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhAFo75cDdk)is a set where you put a shooter under the basket, with players screening on either side. The shooter can go in either direction, and potentially open up the floor for the screeners to cut to the basket or pop out for an open jumper.

Horns usually has the 1 at the top, the 4 and 5 at the top of the key, and the 2 and 3 in the corner. You can run a lot of pick and roll (with the option to kick to shooters) out of Horns, as well as running the screens off the ball or clear the floor for drivers. This video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKE3JQRVIVA) has a good example of how Duke generally runs Horns.

These are some very basic explanations, since there are a lot of different ways to run both sets.


Pitchforks for the extremely well laid out and simple explanation. Love it!

Sporks and another thank you added.

[devildeac]

The above Horns play involves a handoff to the wing on the opposite side from the entry pass. Courtesy of Luke Winn, here's a video of several Horns plays in which Luke receives the handoff from the same side as the entry pass:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nCGuKEK48NQ

Note: Winn refers to Horns as the "A-Set" since you can look at it as the players are forming an "A" in their alignment.

Thanks for taking the time to post all these fine examples for dummies like me.

[Troublemaker]

Here's a VERY common action that Duke uses. Amile receives the entry pass, and the other big (in this case Matt due to our injured big men) sets an off-ball screen for Grayson, which allows him to receive the handoff from Amile with space between him and a trailing defender.

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/EnragedDescriptiveIguanodon-size_restricted.gif

Even though Grayson misses, Duke will take an open three from the top of the key anytime. Sometimes Grayson will shot-fake the trailing defender and drive instead. There are all sorts of ways he can use the advantage he has when he receives the handoff.

Here's Kansas guarding Grayson's bread and butter play well. It's the exact same play as above but the key here is that the person guarding Amile is Josh Jackson who can switch out on Grayson to prevent the open three and then stone him on the drive, causing Duke to reset.

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/CavernousAdolescentIndianringneckparakeet-size_restricted.gif

Anyway, when Grayson is healthy, look for this Horns handoff for him. We run it for him all the time.

[Troublemaker]

I have at least 3 more questions for this Phase and will add them in another post, but I wanted to get this post up. What do you guys think about this Phase?

When I wrote the above, I actually didn't have 3 questions in mind but was trying to force myself back into this thread at a later date for more analysis. With today's post-storm above, I'm going to say I only owe you guys 2 questions now. Today, I helped answer, "What are Floppy and Horns?"

[English]

I gotta spread the sporks love, but this has been tremendously enlightening. Great to put a name to what I've been making names up for forever now.

[Billy Dat]

Good article on K's rotation possibilities as the team gets healthy.

https://theringer.com/coach-k-duke-basketball-luke-kennard-amile-jefferson-4a768bac347d

It's a sign of our depth that Frank Jackson doesn't even get mentoned.

[JohnJ]

Here's a single floppy set. Matt is joined up top by Frank, so only Luke uses the car wash. Luke is great at using using pump fakes to free himself from defenders chasing him.

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/ForkedMildClingfish-size_restricted.gif

I tried to give sporks for all your Duke specific videos of the two sets but I have to spread the love. Thanks for these. They really helped me understand. Now I guess I need to go back and read the beginning phase posts again.

[Troublemaker]

I tried to give sporks for all your Duke specific videos of the two sets but I have to spread the love. Thanks for these. They really helped me understand. Now I guess I need to go back and read the beginning phase posts again.

No problem. Thanks for asking!

We mostly run Horns and Floppy after made baskets by the opponent. So, anytime UNLV scores today -- which hopefully isn't often -- see if you can identify the offensive set that Duke goes into on the following possession.

On missed baskets by the opponent -- that is, when we collect a defensive rebound -- Duke basically just pushes the ball and one of our shooters will usually pop open in transition. If that doesn't happen, we'll either run motion offense or back out and call the Horns or Floppy set.

Also, sometimes when the offensive sets aren't working (because the defense is playing them well), we'll abandon them in favor of running spread motion (sometimes called 4-around-1 motion). That's what Duke did with about 10 minutes left in the 2nd half against Kansas, which was the key to us coming back and making it a game against the Jayhawks.

[Troublemaker]

Finally, I'll be interested to see as Bolden and Giles work their way into the rotation if we'll do anything to get them some postup opportunities. It could be via a new offensive set or it could be a tweaking of one of the sets we currently run.

I think I've seen us play around some with a very simple 3-2 set (3 perimeter players outside, and 2 bigs on each side of the key posting up) on a few possessions, but that might not get the bigs open very often without some additional screening action.

[budwom]

Good article on K's rotation possibilities as the team gets healthy.

https://theringer.com/coach-k-duke-basketball-luke-kennard-amile-jefferson-4a768bac347d

It's a sign of our depth that Frank Jackson doesn't even get mentoned.

yeah, decent article, seems like (unlike some writers) he's actually watched Duke play....I agree that we're not apt to
see much of Jeter (barring injuries of course)...but I just don't see how Tatum goes to PF very often (occasionally, yes), since
that would mean sitting either Jefferson (highly unlikely) or Giles (equally unlikely).

From what I saw of Tatum vs Florida, I just don't see any weaknesses with a Tatum, Giles, Jefferson front line.

[Troublemaker]

Tomorrow is the final day of Phase II. What were KenPom's rankings at a similar point last year, compared to what they were at the end of the season?

Note: inspired by a recent Kedsy post using the Internet Archive.

Here are the full rankings from Dec 21st, 2015 (https://web-beta.archive.org/web/20151221083454/www.kenpom.com) and the full rankings from March 15th, 2016 (pre-tourney) (https://web-beta.archive.org/web/20160315120945/www.kenpom.com) and the top 20 below side by side:

http://i.imgur.com/8K9ZjuC.png

Note: KenPom didn't highlight Louisville and SMU in red on the right because they were not eligible for the tourney.

[Troublemaker]

As you can see, the rankings didn't shake up too much.

The top 5 in December were still in the top 10 in March. The top 9 in December were still in the top 15 in March. The exception was #10 Duke, and we suffered a major injury to get knocked out of the top 20 altogether in March.

If last season is any indication, the list of major Final Four contenders won't change too much between now and March. Take the current top 10 teams in KenPom seriously.

[Troublemaker]

When I wrote the above, I actually didn't have 3 questions in mind but was trying to force myself back into this thread at a later date for more analysis. With today's post-storm above, I'm going to say I only owe you guys 2 questions now. Today, I helped answer, "What are Floppy and Horns?"

1 question left. What to ask and answer. What to ask and answer. The final question of Phase II.

Willing to take suggestions.

[Kedsy]

If last season is any indication, the list of major Final Four contenders won't change too much between now and March. Take the current top 10 teams in KenPom seriously.

FWIW, the 2016 Final Four was ranked #2, #8, #9, and #46 in the December 21 Pomeroy. Today, that would be Duke, Louisville, UCLA, and Seton Hall.

[Troublemaker]

FWIW, the 2016 Final Four was ranked #2, #8, #9, and #46 in the December 21 Pomeroy. Today, that would be Duke, Louisville, UCLA, and Seton Hall.

Yep, although I wouldn't count Syracuse as a "major Final Four contender" (my words). The Orange were a 10-seed that made a great run (especially in the last 10 minutes or so of the Elite 8), but I was more referring to teams that are expected to contend.

For example, last season, seven of the eight top-2 seeds were ranked in KenPom's top 9 on Dec 21st; only Oregon came from a much lower ranking to become a top-2 seed.

So, when Duke fans see that one poor offensive showing against Tennessee St has knocked Duke down to the #3 offense and the #2 team overall, we might believe that things are still very volatile and that there are many shakeups to come with many teams exiting the top 10 and many new teams entering it.

But that probably won't be so based on last season. The top 10 KenPom teams as of today will probably still be ranked very high in March and will represent the bulk of the 1 and 2 seeds in the tournament.

That's what I was trying to get across. My thoughts do not preclude a Syracuse-esque run in a 1-and-done tourney this season. Stuff happens in a 1-and-done tourney, as we both know.

[DukieTiger]

Yep, although I wouldn't count Syracuse as a "major Final Four contender" (my words). The Orange were a 10-seed that made a great run (especially in the last 10 minutes or so of the Elite 8), but I was more referring to teams that are expected to contend.

For example, last season, seven of the eight top-2 seeds were ranked in KenPom's top 9 on Dec 21st; only Oregon came from a much lower ranking to become a top-2 seed.

So, when Duke fans see that one poor offensive showing against Tennessee St has knocked Duke down to the #3 offense and the #2 team overall, we might believe that things are still very volatile and that there are many shakeups to come with many teams exiting the top 10 and many new teams entering it.

But that probably won't be so based on last season. The top 10 KenPom teams as of today will probably still be ranked very high in March and will represent the bulk of the 1 and 2 seeds in the tournament.

That's what I was trying to get across. My thoughts do not preclude a Syracuse-esque run in a 1-and-done tourney this season. Stuff happens in a 1-and-done tourney, as we both know.

One other thing to mention about any change that does happen between Dec 21 and the end of the season: KenPom's rankings won't be fully connected for another month, so some of the movement of teams could be noise due to the dropping of the "preseason ratings", rather than any true change in who the "best" teams are from 12/21 to the end of the season.

[Kedsy]

The top 10 KenPom teams as of today will probably still be ranked very high in March and will represent the bulk of the 1 and 2 seeds in the tournament.

I went back over the last 7 years to test your theory, getting as close as the wayback machine would give me to 12/20 in each season:

2016:
Final Four: #2 Oklahoma; #8 Villanova; #9 UNC; #46 Syracuse
#1/#2 seeds: #1 UVa; #2 Okla; #3 Mich St; #5 Kansas; #7 Xavier; #8 V'Nova; #9 UNC; #32 Oregon
PREDICTIVE VALUE: three top 10 in Final Four; seven top 10 in top eight seeds

2015:
Final Four: #1 UK; #2 Duke; #4 Wisconsin; #12 Mich St
#1/#2 seeds: #1 UK; #2 Duke; #3 UVa; #4 Wisc; #6 V'Nova; #7 Gonzaga; #8 Arizona; #10 Kansas
PREDICTIVE VALUE: three top 10 in Final Four; eight top 10 in top eight seeds

2014:
Final Four: #6 Wisconsin; #9 UK; #10 Florida; #28 UConn
#1/#2 seeds: #4 Arizona; #5 V'Nova; #6 Wisc; #8 Kansas; #10 Fla; #12 Wich St; #23 Michigan; #24 UVa
PREDICTIVE VALUE: three top 10 in Final Four; five top 10 (plus #12) in top eight seeds

2013:
Final Four: #3 Louisville; #5 Syracuse; #8 Michigan; #26 Wichita St
#1/#2 seeds: #2 Indiana; #3 Louisville; #4 Duke; #7 Ohio St; #9 Kansas; #11 Gonzaga; #30 Miami; #36 Georgetown
PREDICTIVE VALUE: three top 10 in Final Four; five top 10 (plus #11) in top eight seeds

2012:
Final Four: #2 UK; #3 Ohio St; #6 Kansas; #10 Louisville
#1/#2 seeds: #2 UK; #3 Ohio St; #4 UNC; #5 Syracuse; #6 Kansas; #8 Missouri; #9 Duke; #12 Mich St
PREDICTIVE VALUE: four top 10 in Final Four; seven top 10 (plus #12) in top eight seeds

2011:
Final Four: #4 UK; #31 Butler; #32 UConn; #91 VCU
#1/#2 seeds: #1 Ohio St; #2 Duke; #3 Kansas; #6 Pitt; #19 SD St; #23 Notre Dame; #26 UNC; #34 Florida
PREDICTIVE VALUE: one top 10 in Final Four; four top 10 in top eight seeds

2010:
Final Four: #3 Duke; #6 West Virginia; #28 Mich St; #37 Butler
#1/#2 seeds: #2 Kansas; #3 Duke; #4 Syracuse; #13 UK; #14 Kansas St; #18 Ohio St; #33 Villanova
PREDICTIVE VALUE: two top 10 in Final Four; three top 10 in top eight seeds


Seems like a decent predictor, perhaps less good the further back you go, so the past few years might be a coincidence (or 2010 and 2011 might be coincidence; I don't have time to go further back). It's also possible that the last five years the committee changed something about the way they seed teams, possibly they've looked at more rating systems like Pomeroy and relied less on the RPI.

Tidbits:
-- Several low-seeds that made the Final Four (2014 Kentucky; 2013 Syracuse and Michigan; 2012 Louisville; 2011 Kentucky) don't look so crazy on this list, meaning they were more highly rated in December than they were in early March.

-- Lowest December-ranked team to get a #1 or #2 seed? Georgetown (#36) in 2013, a team that just happened to lose in the first round to #15 Florida Gulf Coast.
All #1/#2 seeds that were outside the top 20 in December: #32 Oregon (2016), made Elite Eight; #23 Michigan (2014), made Elite Eight; #24 Virginia (2014), lost in Sweet 16; #30 Miami (2013), lost in Sweet 16; #36 Georgetown (2013), lost in 1st round; #23 Notre Dame (2011), lost in 2nd round; #26 UNC (2011), made Elite Eight; #34 Florida (2011), made Elite Eight; #33 Villanova (2010), lost in 2nd round.

-- Most divergent seeding choices in the 7-year period (2011) also yielded the craziest Final Four in history.

-- In these seven seasons, only three teams that were #1 in December got 1-seeds/2-seeds in the tournament, and only one #1-in-December team made the Final Four.

[Troublemaker]

Thank you, Kedsy!

I couldn't spork you but you basically wrote the post that I should've written in the first place but didn't out of laziness, haha. Thanks for increasing my sample size.

These tidbits are amazing, too:



Tidbits:
-- Several low-seeds that made the Final Four (2014 Kentucky; 2013 Syracuse and Michigan; 2012 Louisville; 2011 Kentucky) don't look so crazy on this list, meaning they were more highly rated in December than they were in early March.

-- Lowest December-ranked team to get a #1 or #2 seed? Georgetown (#36) in 2013, a team that just happened to lose in the first round to #15 Florida Gulf Coast.
All #1/#2 seeds that were outside the top 20 in December: #32 Oregon (2016), made Elite Eight; #23 Michigan (2014), made Elite Eight; #24 Virginia (2014), lost in Sweet 16; #30 Miami (2013), lost in Sweet 16; #36 Georgetown (2013), lost in 1st round; #23 Notre Dame (2011), lost in 2nd round; #26 UNC (2011), made Elite Eight; #34 Florida (2011), made Elite Eight; #33 Villanova (2010), lost in 2nd round.

-- Most divergent seeding choices in the 7-year period (2011) also yielded the craziest Final Four in history.

-- In these seven seasons, only three teams that were #1 in December got 1-seeds/2-seeds in the tournament, and only one #1-in-December team made the Final Four.

[Kedsy]

It's also possible that the last five years the committee changed something about the way they seed teams, possibly they've looked at more rating systems like Pomeroy and relied less on the RPI.

Testing my own theory, here's the same data using Pomeroy's pre-tournament rankings. Note that I used the actual pre-tournament Pomeroy that was published at the time and NOT the changed-after-the-fact ratings he apparently has on his pay site. In addition to the fact that I don't have access to the pay-only data, I also think the published data makes more sense in this context, because if the committee was looking at Pomeroy, this is what they would have seen:

2016:
Final Four: #7 Oklahoma; #5 Villanova; #4 UNC; #41 Syracuse
#1/#2 seeds: #2 UVa; #7 Okla; #3 Mich St; #1 Kansas; #15 Xavier; #5 V'Nova; #4 UNC; #9 Oregon
PREDICTIVE VALUE: three top 10 in Final Four; seven top 10 in top eight seeds (but a different seven than in the December data)

2015:
Final Four: #1 UK; #7 Duke; #3 Wisconsin; #17 Mich St
#1/#2 seeds: #1 UK; #7 Duke; #4 UVa; #3 Wisc; #5 V'Nova; #6 Gonzaga; #2 Arizona; #11 Kansas
PREDICTIVE VALUE: three top 10 in Final Four; seven top 10 (plus #11) in top eight seeds

2014:
Final Four: #11 Wisconsin; #17 UK; #3 Florida; #25 UConn
#1/#2 seeds: #1 Arizona; #4 V'Nova; #11 Wisc; #9 Kansas; #3 Fla; #5 Wich St; #14 Michigan; #4 UVa
PREDICTIVE VALUE: two top 10 (plus #11) in Final Four; six top 10 (plus #11) in top eight seeds

2013:
Final Four: #2 Louisville; #13 Syracuse; #11 Michigan; #33 Wichita St
#1/#2 seeds: #3 Indiana; #2 Louisville; #6 Duke; #5 Ohio St; #8 Kansas; #4 Gonzaga; #15 Miami; #12 Georgetown
PREDICTIVE VALUE: one top 10 (plus #11) in Final Four; six top 10 (plus #12) in top eight seeds

2012:
Final Four: #1 UK; #2 Ohio St; #4 Kansas; #20 Louisville
#1/#2 seeds: #1 UK; #2 Ohio St; #5 UNC; #7 Syracuse; #4 Kansas; #8 Missouri; #17 Duke; #3 Mich St
PREDICTIVE VALUE: three top 10 in Final Four; seven top 10 in top eight seeds

2011:
Final Four: #7 UK; #54 Butler; #17 UConn; #84 VCU
#1/#2 seeds: #1 Ohio St; #2 Duke; #3 Kansas; #5 Pitt; #6 SD St; #10 Notre Dame; #14 UNC; #19 Florida
PREDICTIVE VALUE: one top 10 in Final Four; six top 10 in top eight seeds

2010:
Final Four: #1 Duke; #8 West Virginia; #24 Mich St; #26 Butler
#1/#2 seeds: #2 Kansas; #1 Duke; #5 Syracuse; #6 UK; #8 West Virginia; #9 Kansas St; #4 Ohio St; #15 Villanova
PREDICTIVE VALUE: two top 10 in Final Four; seven top 10 in top eight seeds


Interestingly, the final regular season numbers are only a little more predictive than the December data. And are a bit worse in their Final Four predictions.


Also, I noticed a typo in my earlier post. Add #6 West Virginia to the 2010 #1/#2 seed list, giving 2010 four of the top 10 in its top eight seeds.

[MChambers]

The colloquy between Kedsy and Troublemaker reminded me of this article by Mr. Pomeroy, on the surprising accuracy of preseason polls.

http://kenpom.com/blog/the-preseason-ap-poll-is-great/

[Troublemaker]

kAzE provides the final question of Phase II:


Great job! Just curious, are you getting these clips from somewhere that the rest of us can also access or are you producing them yourself?

I am creating the GIFs myself; however, all the tools and materials needed to create them are readily available online to everyone.

How do you make GIFs?

This is the final question, and I'm going to answer it in a separate post.

Two major caveats right off the bat:

(1) Do not ruin the forum experience for everyone by creating gigantic GIFs. You can see a fledgling giffer's first attempt at transformation in this post of mine. (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?38814-MBB-Kansas-77-Duke-75-Post-Game-Thread&p=925889#post925889) Look how slow that GIF loads. So clunky. (Note: the only reason it might load fast is if you had loaded it before and it's still cached in your browser.) Now it IS higher resolution/quality than the GIFs I've been posting recently, but we always trade resolution for loading speed, especially if there are going to be several of us posting GIFs. I'm going to teach how to make low-res GIFs.

(2) I am an Old Guy making GIFs. I am by no means an expert. There is probably some 14-yr-old King or Queen of Tumblr reading this board who will laugh at how stupid my instructions are, and they might be able to suggest a much better way of doing things. If so, by all means, please do chime in and teach this Old Guy some new tricks.

[superdave]

My Christmas gifts for everyone -

Tatum - Better shot selection. 18 points on 22 field goal attempts vs Elon. Dont go full Kobe please!
Kennard - A dunk in traffic. That's the only thing he has not done yet this year.
Jackson - More assists. The team could use him to be a distributor, getting easy dunks for the bigs with dumpoff passes.
Jones - Last year's 3 point fg %. He shot .415 last season, but .322 as of Elon. A return to form means we put games away.
Allen - Lots of time over Christmas with whomever in his life is the wisest voice.
Jefferson - Free throw rhythm. This is probably the difference between 1st team and 2nd team all-ACC.
Jeter and Bolden - Predictable minutes. It helps to know you will be playing consistent minutes, even if small.
Giles - A dominant stretch for 5 minutes. I would love to see him make big plays on both ends, just so he knows he can do it again.
Vrank, White, DeLaurier - Knowing that kicking butt in practice is the best way to contribute.
Obi - Fashion icon status. http://www.dukechronicle.com/article/2015/06/so-fresh-so-clean
Robinson, Pagliuca, Besser - Fun! Enjoy the ride.
Coaches - Wisdom. This is a formative time. I hope they know which buttons to push.
DBR - Patience. Coach K said this team is at an October status, but it is already late December.