K vs Izzo

[LetItBD08]

It seems like every March, Coach Izzo gets a bunch of acclaim for performing so well in the tournament. People assume he's a step ahead of all other coaches. It feels like Coach K gets overlooked. A lot of random benchmarks get thrown around to the tune of 'in the past however many tournaments, Izzo has been to this round this many times'. I put together a chart comparing the two coaches head to head since Izzo first made the dance.

6901

It's decently competitive. If we're talking about making the Elite Eight or Final Four as the ultimate benchmark, then Izzo has an edge overall but barely any in recent years. If Championships are the goal (duh), then Coach K is better in the tournament no matter how far back you go. (This also doesn't include K's already established ridiculous track record prior to 1998.)

I know some of the Izzo narrative comes from his teams overachieving expectations in the Tournament, but this always seemed underwhelming to me. We can easily say his teams simply underachieved prior.

[SilkyJ]

Its an interesting chart, thanks for pulling it together. I think the Izzo praise (and I'm a HUGE fan of Izzo) comes from two things you mentioned: 1) his ability to reach final fours and 2) the over-achieving. I think both are very fair praises. He took Mich St to 6 final fours in 12 years. Overall he's been to 7 in 16 years. That's pretty compelling.

On over achieving: I think he does more with less better than any coach in America. He doesn't get quite the level of blue chip Mickie D's that Kansas, Duke, UK and UNC have traditionally received and yet he gets to the final four with regularity.

Overall, his total resume can't match Coach K's to be sure. But I've said many times to my MSU friends that if K wasn't coaching Duke, Izzo is the man I'd want steering the ship. I'd love go after him when K retires, but unfortunately he's 61 so he's probably not the right guy to go after if there is a younger heir apparent that seems ready to deliver. (If that's not the case, I could easily argue for making an overture there, though I doubt Izzo would bite...)

[gurufrisbee]

I think Izzo is very good, but I think a lot of what happens with him is that he gets teams that pre-season are ranked top ten, top five, even #1 and then they falter and stumble through November and December and then he finally gets them going at their top speed in Jan and Feb and March and they end up in the tournament with a seed that reflects their overall record, but they are much better than that so they "overachieve". Maybe he deserves credit for getting them up at the most important time of the year, but it always seems to me that he is just doing poorly early in the season.

[duke4ever19]

I think Izzo is very good, but I think a lot of what happens with him is that he gets teams that pre-season are ranked top ten, top five, even #1 and then they falter and stumble through November and December and then he finally gets them going at their top speed in Jan and Feb and March and they end up in the tournament with a seed that reflects their overall record, but they are much better than that so they "overachieve". Maybe he deserves credit for getting them up at the most important time of the year, but it always seems to me that he is just doing poorly early in the season.

Thank you. I've been arguing this exact point with my MSU cousin for years (but yes, I give Izzo his due).

Here is MSU's preseason ranking (AP) since the 2002-03 season:

2002-3: 9
2003-4: 3
2004-5: 13
2005-6: 4
2006-7: N/R (Ranked in the top 40)
2007-8: 8
2008-9: 6
2009-10: 2
2010-11: 2
2011-12: N/R (Ranked 27)
2012-13: 14
2013-14: 2
2014-15:18
2015-16: 13
2016-17: 12

(The two preseason Not Ranked teams finished as follows: The '06-07 squad lost in the second round of the NCAAs to unc. The '11-12 squad reached the Sweet 16, losing to Louisville.)

Based on preseason rankings, perhaps only the two unranked teams would raise an eyebrow if they made the Sweet 16. An interesting side note: from 2002 to 2011 MSU ended the year lower in the AP (five times ending unranked) compared to where they started.

[Olympic Fan]

Worth mentioning that aside from everything else, K is 8-1 head-to-head with Izzo.

[Indoor66]

Worth mentioning that aside from everything else, K is 8-1 head-to-head with Izzo.


Why does that matter? It is such a small sample size.... :o:cool:

[FadedTackyShirt]

IOverall, his total resume can't match Coach K's to be sure. But I've said many times to my MSU friends that if K wasn't coaching Duke, Izzo is the man I'd want steering the ship. I'd love go after him when K retires, but unfortunately he's 61 so he's probably not the right guy to go after if there is a younger heir apparent that seems ready to deliver. (If that's not the case, I could easily argue for making an overture there, though I doubt Izzo would bite...)

Definitely respect and admire Izzo. Forgive the newbie questions, but what's the current board concensus on:

-How many more years will K coach?
-Is Capel considered the front runner?

Sorry for thread drift/asking about things likely already covered.

[SilkyJ]

Definitely respect and admire Izzo. Forgive the newbie questions, but what's the current board concensus on:

-How many more years will K coach?
-Is Capel considered the front runner?

Sorry for thread drift/asking about things likely already covered.

Not sure there's a firm consensus, but I think this is probably a fair summary of the informed opinions:

1) K will coach somewhere in the 2-10 years range. That's a big range, but the real answer is that he will stop coaching he's either tired of it (or loses interest, his passion, etc.) or more likely when father time and health start to become factors that can't be ignored. (If I had to guess, its probably more like 3-6 years. I think i've read/heard people say he's on board through 2020 for sure, but I can't substantiate that.)

2) As of now, Capel is a potential front-runner. Many on this board are OK with that. That said, if K's retirement is truly 5 or 8 or 10 years from now, its pretty hard to say there's a front-runner for a job that won't be open for over half a decade. Any number of things can happen in that period. That said, Capel is a head coach in an assistant's body right now and his recruiting has been one of the reasons for our recent success over the last 5+ years.

Re #1- to put K's age and future coaching potential in context: he's 69 now, which I think makes him the 2nd oldest active coach. Boeheim is the oldest at 70. So K's already pretty old by coaching standards--most guys don't make it to 69. 10 years would take him to 79, which is really, really old by coaching standards. I think its basically the upper bound.

Larry Brown was 75 when he resigned from SMU recently. I imagine he's now done coaching Div 1/NBA at this point.
Wooden was 65 when he retired from UCLA
Bo Ryan was 66 (almost 67) when he retired
Calhoun was 70 when he retired
Bobby Bowden was 79 or 80 when he retired from coaching the FSU football program

Those are the oldest coaches in the modern era that come to mind, though there are probably a couple others that some of our resident historians (calling Oly and Jim!) may recall. There may also be some at lower levels of high school or Div 2, 3, etc. but I think its fair to call those jobs less taxing (Bobby Hurley, Sr is also 69.)

Again, I would think 79/80 is truly the upper bound. I would be surprised if he goes all the way to 79, but its certainly possible. I would also be surprised if he only coached another 2-3 years, but its also possible depending on health issues. He did just have 3 surgeries this past summer, which you can take as either a positive or a negative. The glass half-full read: its incredible that he had 3 surgeries and bounced back so quickly to coach Team USA. Glass half-empty: he's getting old and his body is starting to wear. You can't have multiple surgeries every year and keep coaching forever. That's not sustainable.

A year ago I would have also added that he may try to outlast his buddy Boeheim as they were neck and neck for the all-time wins record. If K retired first, Boeheim would have a shot to catch him, though it would take at least 2 seasons I think. Given Boeheim just lost 100 wins, I don't think that's as big of a factor.