Northwestern's quest

[JasonEvans]

Will this be the year the Wildcats accomplish the unthinkable... can they finally make the NCAA tournament? As you probably know, they are the only power-5 conference team to never make the NCAA tourney.

Chris Collins has been a miracle worker thus far in his 3 seasons. He took the worst program in all of the major conferences and has made them relevant. 14-19 in his first year, 15-17 in his second, and then 20-12 last year. Want to know the last time Northwestern finished above .500 in the Big Ten?

1968

They went 8-6 in the conference that year. The last time Northwestern won more than 8 games in the Big Ten was 1933.

After starting the season with 2 easy wins over two bad teams, Mississippi Vallesy State and Eastern Washington, they played at Butler last night. Butler is always among the best mid-majors in the land and a likely tourney team. Northwestern came within an eyelash of taking the Bulldogs down, losing 70-68 on a jumper with less than a second left. Regardless of the result, it is a good sign for how competitive NW can be this season. They are in a holiday tournament on Monday and Tuesday, playing Texas in the first game and then the winner or loser of Notre Dame and Colorado the next day. Winning one game would be a decent feather in their cap, especially if they took down Texas.

Northwestern got Vic Law back this season. The athletic soph missed all of last year with a torn labrum in his shoulder. He's a scorer who makes a difference on defense too. He's averaging better than 20 ppg so far and is ridiculously hot from outside. He's hit 11 of 14 three pointers thus far this season (which is not sustainable). Law is the only top 100 recruit Collins has gotten at NW. He will be key to seeing if Collins can do the unthinkable and take the Wildcats to the Big Dance.

-Jason "If folks want, I'll update this thread at various times during the season as we track how NW and Collins are doing" Evans

[Spanarkel]

Will this be the year the Wildcats accomplish the unthinkable... can they finally make the NCAA tournament? As you probably know, they are the only power-5 conference team to never make the NCAA tourney.

Chris Collins has been a miracle worker thus far in his 3 seasons. He took the worst program in all of the major conferences and has made them relevant. 14-19 in his first year, 15-17 in his second, and then 20-12 last year. Want to know the last time Northwestern finished above .500 in the Big Ten?

1968

They went 8-6 in the conference that year. The last time Northwestern won more than 8 games in the Big Ten was 1933.

After starting the season with 2 easy wins over two bad teams, Mississippi Vallesy State and Eastern Washington, they played at Butler last night. Butler is always among the best mid-majors in the land and a likely tourney team. Northwestern came within an eyelash of taking the Bulldogs down, losing 70-68 on a jumper with less than a second left. Regardless of the result, it is a good sign for how competitive NW can be this season. They are in a holiday tournament on Monday and Tuesday, playing Texas in the first game and then the winner or loser of Notre Dame and Colorado the next day. Winning one game would be a decent feather in their cap, especially if they took down Texas.

Northwestern got Vic Law back this season. The athletic soph missed all of last year with a torn labrum in his shoulder. He's a scorer who makes a difference on defense too. He's averaging better than 20 ppg so far and is ridiculously hot from outside. He's hit 11 of 14 three pointers thus far this season (which is not sustainable). Law is the only top 100 recruit Collins has gotten at NW. He will be key to seeing if Collins can do the unthinkable and take the Wildcats to the Big Dance.

-Jason "If folks want, I'll update this thread at various times during the season as we track how NW and Collins are doing" Evans





Excellent post: always rooting for Coach Collins. Even though he wasn't RSCI Top 100 in '13-'14, NW guard Bryant McIntosh is a very good college player, averaging 13-14 ppg his first two years in college with a nearly 3/1 A/TO ratio last year. He was an Indiana All-Star his senior year(and a Junior All-Star)on a squad that included Trey Lyles(no.1 in IN that year), James Blackmon(no. 2 in IN), and Trevon Bluiett(no. 11 in state that year/fine career at Xavier thus far). McIntosh was the nation's 22nd ranked shooting guard(so he just missed the Top 100, I guess)and the no. 7 player in IN his senior year. Will be interesting to see how NW does this year as you point out in your post with return of Vic Law.

[MChambers]

I went to Northwestern's opener last Friday, with my daughter, who is a junior at Northwestern (Chicago's Big Ten team, in case you didn't know). The opponent was Mississippi Valley State. Anybody remember Duke playing the Delta Devils?

The Wildcats are a lot more athletic and a lot quicker than they used to be. Law is a very good athlete, with a nice three-point shot and excellent dunking ability. He doesn't seem to have a particularly good handle. Macintosh starts at the point, but slides over to shooting guard when a freshman named Isaiah Brown comes in.

I'd say the team is fairly deep, but doesn't have a lot of size. The frontline players are all about 6'8", and not particularly bulky.

I'm pretty sure they played straight man-to-man the whole game, which was nice to see. They were very up-tempo on offense for the first 10 minutes, ripped out to a big lead, and then got a little bit sloppy.

I came away from it thinking that they have a shot at an NCAA bid this year. Also, they only have two seniors on the roster, and only one figures to get much playing time: the wonderfully named Sanjay Lumpkin.

Matt

[Wander]

Does Butler count as a mid-major?

[Olympic Fan]

Does Butler count as a mid-major?

Butler is a member of the Big East. It's not a power conference in football, but I think most basketball people consider the Big East as a power conference in that sport (it did, after all, produce last year's national champion).

There are actually three schools that have been eligible for the NCAA Tournament since it began in 1939 that have never played in the tournament -- Northwestern, Army and William & Mary (which will be visiting Cameron soon). The are, of course, a bunch of recent Division 1 teams that never been invited.

[sagegrouse]

There are actually three schools that have been eligible for the NCAA Tournament since it began in 1939 that have never played in the tournament -- Northwestern, Army and William & Mary (which will be visiting Cameron soon). The are, of course, a bunch of recent Division 1 teams that never been invited.

Don't forget The Citadel, which joined the Southern Conference in 1936 (and never left). The Bulldogs have never been to the NCAA's in basketball. Norm Sloan had some decent teams in the late 1950's, but West Virginia (including Jerry West) was a member of the SoCon back then.

From Sports-Reference.com:


Citadel Bulldogs School History
Location: Charleston, South Carolina
Seasons: 105 (1912-13 to 2016-17)
Record: 964-1306 .425 W-L%
Conferences: Southern and Ind
Conference Champion: 0 Times (Reg. Seas.), 0 Times (Tourn.)
NCAA Tournament: 0 Years

Kindly,
Sage
'The undefeated Citadel football team plays this week at UNC, but the Bulldogs have won a bunch of close games against fairly weak opponents'

[DU82]

'The undefeated Citadel football team plays this week at UNC, but the Bulldogs have won a bunch of close games against fairly weak opponents'

So that bodes well for them this weekend.

[JasonEvans]

They are in a holiday tournament on Monday and Tuesday, playing Texas in the first game and then the winner or loser of Notre Dame and Colorado the next day. Winning one game would be a decent feather in their cap, especially if they took down Texas.

I know I am jinxing it, but at the half the Wildcats lead Texas 34-26. The winner gets Notre Dame.

-Jason "the first two years that Chris Collins was at Duke, Coach K's lead assistant was Mike Brey... I really hope they get to play each other tomorrow!" Evans

[Ultrarunner]

I know I am jinxing it, but at the half the Wildcats lead Texas 34-26. The winner gets Notre Dame.

-Jason "the first two years that Chris Collins was at Duke, Coach K's lead assistant was Mike Brey... I really hope they get to play each other tomorrow!" Evans

Psst. There's a 'safe' place for non-jinxing (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?38809-The-quot-I-m-not-going-to-jinx-it-quot-thread-v3-0).

[Owen Meany]

NW up 14 with just over 3 minutes left. Texas's freshman center has been ejected for throwing a punch/chop to the head of a NW player who was laying on the ground. It will be interesting to see how many (few) articles, half-time segments, etc this warrants in comparison to Grayson Allen.

[JasonEvans]

Psst. There's a 'safe' place for non-jinxing (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?38809-The-quot-I-m-not-going-to-jinx-it-quot-thread-v3-0).

Oh, I know, but I wanted to really be on the record and risk the wrath of the basketball gods for this one. I was that confident about Chris' boys bringing it home and boy did they!

This is one of the bigger wins in Collins' career, not because Texas was really good (they are ranked and NW has precious few wins in history over ranked teams), but because this is the kind of quality win that carries real weight with the selection committee. The game against Notre Dame will also be big. Northwestern went 8-10 in the Big Ten last year. But, even if they had gone 9-9 they really lacked any good non-conference wins to woo the selection committee. Thier best non-conf win last season was over Va Tech in the Big Ten/ACc Challenge. So, a blow out win over Texas is clearly better than anything they did a year ago.

-Jason "getting ahead of myself again, but if NW beats Notre Dame they will probably start to get ranking votes... which would be pretty unbelievable for this program" Evans

[Ultrarunner]

Oh, I know, but I wanted to really be on the record and risk the wrath of the basketball gods for this one. I was that confident about Chris' boys bringing it home and boy did they!

This is one of the bigger wins in Collins' career, not because Texas was really good (they are ranked and NW has precious few wins in history over ranked teams), but because this is the kind of quality win that carries real weight with the selection committee. The game against Notre Dame will also be big. Northwestern went 8-10 in the Big Ten last year. But, even if they had gone 9-9 they really lacked any good non-conference wins to woo the selection committee. Thier best non-conf win last season was over Va Tech in the Big Ten/ACc Challenge. So, a blow out win over Texas is clearly better than anything they did a year ago.

-Jason "getting ahead of myself again, but if NW beats Notre Dame they will probably start to get ranking votes... which would be pretty unbelievable for this program" Evans

Understood. :) I'm pleased for Chris Collins. He's worked hard.

[Troublemaker]

This is one of the bigger wins in Collins' career, not because Texas was really good (they are ranked and NW has precious few wins in history over ranked teams), but because this is the kind of quality win that carries real weight with the selection committee. The game against Notre Dame will also be big. Northwestern went 8-10 in the Big Ten last year. But, even if they had gone 9-9 they really lacked any good non-conference wins to woo the selection committee. Thier best non-conf win last season was over Va Tech in the Big Ten/ACc Challenge. So, a blow out win over Texas is clearly better than anything they did a year ago.

Agreed, and Texas is the perfect early-season opponent for a bubble team like NW. The Longhorns are a young team that's trying to find its way early and will get much better as the season progresses. Like you said, this will eventually look like a quality win over an NCAA tourney team for Collins and Northwestern.

[Troublemaker]

-Jason "getting ahead of myself again, but if NW beats Notre Dame they will probably start to get ranking votes... which would be pretty unbelievable for this program" Evans

Close but no cigar. NW was ahead 64-58 late in the game but ND outscored them 12-2 the rest of the way for a 70-66 victory. Still, going 1-1 against Texas and ND is probably still a good result for NW.

[dukelion]

Brutal loss for Northwestern.

All they had to do was inbound the ball and make some free throws. Instead they panic and turn it over and immediately give up a three point play.

I'm furious and I'm not even a fan.

[MChambers]

'Twas awful. Taphorn, a senior who had been great in the second half, threw away an inbound pass with less than a minute left, and NW with a lead and still having at least one timeout, and then committed a blocking fould (on a close call) to give ND a three point play.

I blame Collins, but of course I don't know what he said before the inbounds play.

[sagegrouse]

Brutal loss for Northwestern.

All they had to do was inbound the ball and make some free throws. Instead they panic and turn it over and immediately give up a three point play.

I'm furious and I'm not even a fan.

With 19 seconds left, Northwestern is ahead 66-65 and has the ball out of bounds; Notre Dame has no timeouts left. The Wildcats lose, 70-66: intercepted inbounds pass (better: "thrown away" inbound pass). Basket on a drive by ND and a blocking foul on Northwestern. Three-point play puts NW ahead to stay.

[Reilly]

I believe Northwestern folks prefer NU not NW as an abbreviation.

[JasonEvans]

I believe Northwestern folks prefer NU not NW as an abbreviation.

If they ever actually make the dance then they can tell us how to refer to them, until then I'm going with NW.

[BD80]

I believe Northwestern folks prefer NU not NW as an abbreviation.


If they ever actually make the dance then they can tell us how to refer to them, until them I'm going with NW.

Come on, it's a directional school - who cares?

[CameronBornAndBred]

Nice win over Wake tonight.

[FadedTackyShirt]

Don't forget The Citadel, which joined the Southern Conference in 1936 (and never left). The Bulldogs have never been to the NCAA's in basketball. Norm Sloan had some decent teams in the late 1950's, but West Virginia (including Jerry West) was a member of the SoCon back then.

The fifth school in the futility five is St Francis (Brooklyn). Northwestern, Army, W&M, Citadel, and St Francis are all still pitching Big Dance shutouts.

[OldPhiKap]

Do they also seek the grail?

[devildeac]

Do they also seek the grail?

Damn, you're up early. Beat me to this post by less than 10 minutes. ;)

But, what is your favourite colour?

[OldPhiKap]

Damn, you're up early. Beat me to this post by less than 10 minutes. ;)

But, what is your favourite colour?

Blue, Pantone 287. That one I know.

[BD80]

Blue, Pantone 287. That one I know.

No, no. 288 ...

Aaaaaaaaaaaa...

[devildeac]

Blue, Pantone 287. That one I know.

Right. Off you go.

[Wander]

Re: my earlier comment about Butler not being a mid major. Butler is undefeated, now with wins over Arizona, Utah, and Vanderbilt, all away from home. Not only is losing at Butler not a bad result, but it is the toughest game Butler has had so far, and "only" a 2 point road loss may arguably be viewed as a sorta positive sign.

[sagegrouse]

Re: my earlier comment about Butler not being a mid major. Butler is undefeated, now with wins over Arizona, Utah, and Vanderbilt, all away from home. Not only is losing at Butler not a bad result, but it is the toughest game Butler has had so far, and "only" a 2 point road loss may arguably be viewed as a sorta positive sign.

Butler is also a member of the Big East, which has to be considered a Power Conference in basketball capability, if not in $$$$ generation. In fact, Butler is the only non-Catholic school in the league, which sports the reigning NCAA champion and past champions Marquette and Georgetown. In fact eight of the ten Big East teams have been to the Final Four (all but Xavier and Creighton).

In comparison, eleven of the 15 ACC schools have made the Final Four (Pitt only in 1941) and the ones missing include three that made the Elite Eight -- Virginia Tech, BC and Clemson -- and Miami, which has made the Sweet Sixteen). Five of the 15 have been NCAA champions.

[MChambers]

Collins's team is looking good, after thrashing New Orleans last night. #40 in Pomeroy and #31 in Sagarin.

Team has played without its starting center, Dererk Pardon, the last few games, but he should be back in January. Also lost sophomore forward Aaron Falzone to knee surgery. Falzone would be playing a lot, had he been healthy, based on his promising freshman year.

[bob blue devil]

Collins's team is looking good, after thrashing New Orleans last night. #40 in Pomeroy and #31 in Sagarin.

Team has played without its starting center, Dererk Pardon, the last few games, but he should be back in January. Also lost sophomore forward Aaron Falzone to knee surgery. Falzone would be playing a lot, had he been healthy, based on his promising freshman year.

With all those injury problems, I wonder if they've looked into their shoes or gym floor as potential causal factors... <ducks>

[CDu]

Collins's team is looking good, after thrashing New Orleans last night. #40 in Pomeroy and #31 in Sagarin.

Team has played without its starting center, Dererk Pardon, the last few games, but he should be back in January. Also lost sophomore forward Aaron Falzone to knee surgery. Falzone would be playing a lot, had he been healthy, based on his promising freshman year.

At this point, it's all about finishing at least .500 in conference. That's not going to be easy. They do get 8 easier games: Rutgers twice, Illinois twice, and Nebraska twice, along with Penn State and Iowa. But the rest of their schedule is pretty tough (IU twice, Purdue twice, @Wisconsin, @MSU, @OSU, Michigan, Minnesota, and Maryland). They'll have to win at least a couple of those tough games to get in. I don't think going 8-10 will be enough.

[MChambers]

I think they'll be good at home against Minnesota and Maryland, so that should help. But you're right, it's not a clear path to .500.

[CDu]

I think they'll be good at home against Minnesota and Maryland, so that should help. But you're right, it's not a clear path to .500.

Maybe versus Maryland, although the Terps would still have the best player on the court. I would call the Minnesota game a true 50/50. Maybe Northwestern wins it at home, bit I think that's still pretty much a toss-up. Either way, they have little if any margin for error.

[SCMatt33]

At this point, it's all about finishing at least .500 in conference. That's not going to be easy. They do get 8 easier games: Rutgers twice, Illinois twice, and Nebraska twice, along with Penn State and Iowa. But the rest of their schedule is pretty tough (IU twice, Purdue twice, @Wisconsin, @MSU, @OSU, Michigan, Minnesota, and Maryland). They'll have to win at least a couple of those tough games to get in. I don't think going 8-10 will be enough.

I agree they need at least a couple of the tough games, and that's more important than the final record. They could conceivably go 9-9 and beat only one good team. Right now, they don't have any wins over surfire top 50 teams since Texas has collapsed since losing to them. They still have a non conference tilt with Dayton, which could ultimately be important. We've seen plenty of times over the years where teams get left out who have decent overall numbers, but few good wins in favor of teams who have had up and down years with a mix of good wins and bad losses.

[ChillinDuke]

Are we really alluding to NW going 0-10 in those "tough" games? That seems incredibly unlikely, especially given how they've shown thus far this year with their only two losses to good teams by a combined 6 points.

Heck 2-8 seems highly unlikely as well. They'll win something even if they lose one or two of the 8 "not tough" games.

I agree that there is no clear path to 9-9 in conference, but it does seem likely that they'll find a path when all is said and done. I mean someone has to win each game, and they are currently the #5 ranked B1G team according to Kenny P.

That's not to say they should punch their ticket here and now. But I am pretty encouraged that this will be the year that they go dancin. And, agree, if they beat Dayton (and hold serve against the other patsies) that would really frame things well entering Conference Play.

- Chillin

[BandAlum83]

Are we really alluding to NW going 0-10 in those "tough" games? That seems incredibly unlikely, especially given how they've shown thus far this year with their only two losses to good teams by a combined 6 points.

Heck 2-8 seems highly unlikely as well. They'll win something even if they lose one or two of the 8 "not tough" games.

I agree that there is no clear path to 9-9 in conference, but it does seem likely that they'll find a path when all is said and done. I mean someone has to win each game, and they are currently the #5 ranked B1G team according to Kenny P.

That's not to say they should punch their ticket here and now. But I am pretty encouraged that this will be the year that they go dancin. And, agree, if they beat Dayton (and hold serve against the other patsies) that would really frame things well entering Conference Play.

- Chillin

The path clearly goes through Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin.

[OldPhiKap]

The path clearly goes through Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Put your money on the red team, and not the blue one. Trust me, I just saw this movie last month.

[vick]

At this point, it's all about finishing at least .500 in conference. That's not going to be easy. They do get 8 easier games: Rutgers twice, Illinois twice, and Nebraska twice, along with Penn State and Iowa. But the rest of their schedule is pretty tough (IU twice, Purdue twice, @Wisconsin, @MSU, @OSU, Michigan, Minnesota, and Maryland). They'll have to win at least a couple of those tough games to get in. I don't think going 8-10 will be enough.

The odds of them winning two of the "tough" games there are quite high (~98% based on Pomeroy odds). But of course, they also have a very high chance of losing some of the "easier" games (95-96% chance of at least one loss).

[MChambers]

Put your money on the red team, and not the blue one. Trust me, I just saw this movie last month.

Northwestern is purple, so they've got everything covered.

[ChillinDuke]

The odds of them winning two of the "tough" games there are quite high (~98% based on Pomeroy odds). But of course, they also have a very high chance of losing some of the "easier" games (95-96% chance of at least one loss).

Exactly.

If I had to take a complete guess, I'd say NW loses to Dayton and beats their other non-con patsies. Then they proceed to go 10-8 in conference. You'd be looking at an 11-loss team entering their Conference Tourney where I'd guess they go 1-1. So you'd have a 12-loss team and presumably around the #7 ranked B1G team. So it likely comes down to who was included in those 10 conference wins. If two of them are big enough wins, I think they're in. But there's likely plenty of wiggle room for that same numerical record resume being on the wrong side of the bubble. All things being equal in my above hypothetical, a win over Dayton probably has them comfortably in.

For comparison, a 19-13 Syracuse squad got in last year as a 10-seed. For whatever that's worth.

- Chillin

[SCMatt33]

Are we really alluding to NW going 0-10 in those "tough" games? That seems incredibly unlikely, especially given how they've shown thus far this year with their only two losses to good teams by a combined 6 points.

Heck 2-8 seems highly unlikely as well. They'll win something even if they lose one or two of the 8 "not tough" games.

I agree that there is no clear path to 9-9 in conference, but it does seem likely that they'll find a path when all is said and done. I mean someone has to win each game, and they are currently the #5 ranked B1G team according to Kenny P.

That's not to say they should punch their ticket here and now. But I am pretty encouraged that this will be the year that they go dancin. And, agree, if they beat Dayton (and hold serve against the other patsies) that would really frame things well entering Conference Play.

- Chillin

I'd say it's far from "highly unlikely" as it's just about what happened to them last year. They went 12-1 out of conference with a decent, but not great win over Va Tech, only a loss to UNC, and reached as high as #43 in KenPom. They proceeded to go 7-1 in conference against teams ranked below 80 by KenPom, but only 1-9 against teams rated better than 80. Am I predicting that or think that it's the most likely outcome, no, but it's plausible.

[CDu]

I'd say it's far from "highly unlikely" as it's just about what happened to them last year. They went 12-1 out of conference with a decent, but not great win over Va Tech, only a loss to UNC, and reached as high as #43 in KenPom. They proceeded to go 7-1 in conference against teams ranked below 80 by KenPom, but only 1-9 against teams rated better than 80. Am I predicting that or think that it's the most likely outcome, no, but it's plausible.

Yep. And that exact outcome (8-10 in conference) would leave them on the outside looking in.

The good news for them is that the stronger teams in conference aren't as strong as last year. Michigan St is rebuilding a bit. Maryland looks to have taken a big step back. Wisconsin too. But I certainly wouldn't say going 9-9 or better is highly likely. I would say their chances of going 8-10 or worse are pretty close to that of finishing 9-9 or better, with 9-9 having the highest individual probability of the 19 possible outcomes.

[ChillinDuke]

I dunno. I've watched them a bit this and last year and thought they looked more put together this year. A little bit more firepower too. And marginal gains should be enough to flip a game or two. Especially in a slightly less intimidating B1G landscape.

You guys could well end up right. But I'm more encouraged by their prospects this year than last.

The Dayton game is a big one.

- Chillin

[MChambers]

I dunno. I've watched them a bit this and last year and thought they looked more put together this year. A little bit more firepower too. And marginal gains should be enough to flip a game or two. Especially in a slightly less intimidating B1G landscape.

You guys could well end up right. But I'm more encouraged by their prospects this year than last.

The Dayton game is a big one.

- Chillin

I saw Northwestern's game against Mississippi Valley State (the Delta Devils) and thought the Wildcats looked better than in previous years. They're not big, but they have a bunch of shooters and better athletes than they've ever had. I'm pretty optimistic about an NCAA bid. Of course, health will be key. They need Pardon back for the B1G season, and they need the rest of their starters healthy.

[CDu]

I dunno. I've watched them a bit this and last year and thought they looked more put together this year. A little bit more firepower too. And marginal gains should be enough to flip a game or two. Especially in a slightly less intimidating B1G landscape.

You guys could well end up right. But I'm more encouraged by their prospects this year than last.

The Dayton game is a big one.

- Chillin

Just to be clear, you guesstimated 10-8 whereas I guesstimated 9-9 as the most likely outcome (not that I think 9-9 is all that likely, but it's the most likely of the 19 possible outcomes). So it is not like we're wildly disparate in our views. I just see below 9-9 as a VERY reasonable proposition. Like, greater than 40% chance of less than 9-9. I'd say 9-9 or better is still the greater probability, but I would definitely not call it highly likely that they go 9-9 or better. I basically see it as a coin flip.

[ChillinDuke]

Just to be clear, you guesstimated 10-8 whereas I guesstimated 9-9 as the most likely outcome (not that I think 9-9 is all that likely, but it's the most likely of the 19 possible outcomes). So it is not like we're wildly disparate in our views. I just see below 9-9 as a VERY reasonable proposition. Like, greater than 40% chance of less than 9-9. I'd say 9-9 or better is still the greater probability, but I would definitely not call it highly likely that they go 9-9 or better. I basically see it as a coin flip.

Yeah we're saying very similar things. The main subtlety for me is that I like their team more this year than I did last year.

Also, my guesstimate/hypothetical was based on a loss in their last 4 non-cons. If they beat Dayton (and the other 3), then 9-9 in Conference is fine with me, I'd still expect them to make it in - presuming the 9 wins weren't all the absolute worst teams in the B1G, which I find incredibly unlikely. I don't think history will repeat itself as SCMatt was saying - I think they'll flip a couple games this year and notch a couple solid wins in Conference.

- Chillin

[SCMatt33]

Yeah we're saying very similar things. The main subtlety for me is that I like their team more this year than I did last year.

Also, my guesstimate/hypothetical was based on a loss in their last 4 non-cons. If they beat Dayton (and the other 3), then 9-9 in Conference is fine with me, I'd still expect them to make it in - presuming the 9 wins weren't all the absolute worst teams in the B1G, which I find incredibly unlikely. I don't think history will repeat itself as SCMatt was saying - I think they'll flip a couple games this year and notch a couple solid wins in Conference.

- Chillin

I think we're all pretty much on the same page. You had just mentioned that you thought it was "highly unlikely" they don't grab at least a couple of good wins. I think that sort of disaster is plausible, but I'm not betting on it or anything.

[CDu]

Yeah we're saying very similar things. The main subtlety for me is that I like their team more this year than I did last year.

Also, my guesstimate/hypothetical was based on a loss in their last 4 non-cons. If they beat Dayton (and the other 3), then 9-9 in Conference is fine with me, I'd still expect them to make it in - presuming the 9 wins weren't all the absolute worst teams in the B1G, which I find incredibly unlikely. I don't think history will repeat itself as SCMatt was saying - I think they'll flip a couple games this year and notch a couple solid wins in Conference.

- Chillin

And I would say they are basically just as likely to flip a few of their wins against weaker teams as they are to flip a few of the losses against better teams. If you're going to point to last season as anomalous in that they didn't beat the good teams more, then you should probably acknowledge that they run the risk of not repeating their anomalously good performance against weaker teams last year too.

[ChillinDuke]

And I would say they are basically just as likely to flip a few of their wins against weaker teams as they are to flip a few of the losses against better teams. If you're going to point to last season as anomalous in that they didn't beat the good teams more, then you should probably acknowledge that they run the risk of not repeating their anomalously good performance against weaker teams last year too.

Oh, I acknowledge that they run a lot of probabilistic risks. I admit that they could go 0-18 in conference. I also admit the school could fold up their entire program.

But we're talking about Northwestern's quest to make the NCAAT. And I'm saying that, in watching a few of their games last year and two of their games this year, I believe that they are more likely to flip a few of their losses to wins than the opposite. Why is this so difficult to understand and/or worthy of responses? You can believe that they are destined for the same net result as last year, and there's nothing wrong with that. I don't hold such a belief. Doesn't mean either of us is correct and/or will be correct.

I apparently said "highly unlikely" in a previous post which SCMatt validly pointed out. I spoke too strongly. I should have just said unlikely, because that's what I believe.

- Chillin

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Wait... am I confused or is everyone saying the same thing? "NW is better than previous years, may win 9 or 10 conference games, and has the best shot of a bid in a very long time."

[MChambers]

Wait... am I confused or is everyone saying the same thing? "NW is better than previous years, may win 9 or 10 conference games, and has the best shot of a bid in a very long time."

Excellent, peaceful summary to end all quibbling! Let's hope they win more than 10.

[OldPhiKap]

Excellent, peaceful summary to end all quibbling! Let's hope they win more than 10.

Quite Quixotic Quest; quiet quibbling quelled. Film at eleven.

[niveklaen]

NW's quest just became more difficult - Falzon out for the year after surgery

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/18257885/aaron-falzon-northwestern-wildcats-forward-season-ending-knee-surgery

Maybe the remaining players can rally around the adversity.

[arnie]

NW's quest just became more difficult - Falzon out for the year after surgery

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/18257885/aaron-falzon-northwestern-wildcats-forward-season-ending-knee-surgery

Maybe the remaining players can rally around the adversity.

3-6 Chicago State leading NW midway through 2nd half

[westwall]

3-6 Chicago State leading NW midway through 2nd half

Whew, an NW win !

[ChillinDuke]

Whew, an NW win !

Major dodge. I didn't watch the game, so don't know context. NW beat Chicago State by 42 last year, so presumably something was up.

And the Falzon news isn't good although he hadn't played much this year so doesn't really change the product to date.

So it remains: Dayton on Saturday at the United Center, 7pm, BTN. Win that game and NW has a little breathing room entering conference play. Lose and it's back into familiar territory.

Pulling for NW and Collins!

- Chillin

[luvdahops]

NW's quest just became more difficult - Falzon out for the year after surgery

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/18257885/aaron-falzon-northwestern-wildcats-forward-season-ending-knee-surgery

Maybe the remaining players can rally around the adversity.

The Falzon injury is unfortunate, but losing him and getting Vic Law - who missed all last season and is their most dynamic player - back is a net positive for NW

[MChambers]

Losing Falzon definitely hurts, but I think this is not a surprise, since he has barely played this year. Law is definitely more important. Also, the Wildcats has enough depth that losing Falzon doesn't hurt them a lot, if they otherwise stay healthy. Tough break for Falzon, however.

[SCMatt33]

Anyone looking for something to flip to after watching UNC lose, Northwestern is currently up 24 late in the first on Dayton. Still a long way to go, but they are playing some great D and are on a 15-0 run at the under 4 timeout.

[ChillinDuke]

Anyone looking for something to flip to after watching UNC lose, Northwestern is currently up 24 late in the first on Dayton. Still a long way to go, but they are playing some great D and are on a 15-0 run at the under 4 timeout.

Not able to watch but I'm tracking on phone. Dayton is 4-28 FGs?!?! Holy frijoles!

Oh now 8-34, but still.

- Chillin

[SCMatt33]

NW has not been able to handle pressure from Dayton at all in the second and it's down to just 4 with 1:30 left

[SCMatt33]

NW hangs on to win by 3. Dayton never had they ball with a chance to tie, but there was a scare late as Dayton appeared to cause a turnover to get a shot at it, but on review, the Dayton player had his foot on the line when he stripped the ball and it was given back to Northwestern, who threw it deep to run out the last 1.5. Northwestern now has a pretty good looking non conference resume. Let's see if they can translate it to conference play.

[MChambers]

Northwestern is its way to a nice road win today at Penn State. PSU isn't good, #96 in Pomeroy, But Northwestern winning by 20 with 3 minutes to go.

[ChillinDuke]

Northwestern is its way to a nice road win today at Penn State. PSU isn't good, #96 in Pomeroy, But Northwestern winning by 20 with 3 minutes to go.

Good looking out, MC! Well, NW did what it had to do and held serve against their remaining two non-conference patsies.

So an 11-2 non-conference record with close losses to Butler and Notre Dame by a combined 6 points. Including wins over then-ranked Texas, Wake Forest, and Dayton.

Now a road win to open up conference play. The @PSU win is not particularly impressive in the sense that it won't turn heads (they won @PSU last year by the same margin). But you still have to win the games you play, and NW did that.

In short, they continue to take care of business.

Next up: Fri @ Michigan State. That game should tell us a lot about how this year's NW team stacks up in the B1G. NW lost against them last year, at home, by 31. This year's MSU team is ranked #52 and sits at 8-5. NW is actually ranked ahead of them (#46)

- Chillin

[BD80]

... Next up: Fri @ Michigan State. That game should tell us a lot about how this year's NW team stacks up in the B1G. NW lost against them last year, at home, by 31. This year's MSU team is ranked #52 and sits at 8-5. NW is actually ranked ahead of them (#46)

- Chillin

It is always best to get MSU early in your schedule, as the team always seems to get markedly better as the season progresses.

This year may be particularly true.

[duke4ever19]

It is always best to get MSU early in your schedule, as the team always seems to get markedly better as the season progresses.

This year may be particularly true.

I'm not contradicting you here, but I want to get another shot at the Izzo mystique.

There was a thread earlier this season where I, and maybe a couple other posters, argued that the whole "Izzo builds Michigan St. for March" theory is more a mirage of selective attention than fact.

Under Izzo, Mich. St. traditionally starts the season ranked in the Top 25/Top 10 and underperforms its ranking, sometimes falling completely out of the rankings, only to get it's act together in time for the tournament. Then the media narrative inevitably is, "Wow, look at Izzo bringing another group of rag-tag players from mediocrity and into the second week of the tournament!"

In reality, based on preseason expectations, there are perhaps two Mich St. teams since the 2000-01 season that actually greatly out-performed their preseason ranking.

[niveklaen]

I'm not contradicting you here, but I want to get another shot at the Izzo mystique.

There was a thread earlier this season where I, and maybe a couple other posters, argued that the whole "Izzo builds Michigan St. for March" theory is more a mirage of selective attention than fact.

Under Izzo, Mich. St. traditionally starts the season ranked in the Top 25/Top 10 and underperforms its ranking, sometimes falling completely out of the rankings, only to get it's act together in time for the tournament. Then the media narrative inevitably is, "Wow, look at Izzo bringing another group of rag-tag players from mediocrity and into the second week of the tournament!"

In reality, based on preseason expectations, there are perhaps two Mich St. teams since the 2000-01 season that actually greatly out-performed their preseason ranking.

Sounds similar to what Roy Williams does

[uh_no]

I'm not contradicting you here, but I want to get another shot at the Izzo mystique.

There was a thread earlier this season where I, and maybe a couple other posters, argued that the whole "Izzo builds Michigan St. for March" theory is more a mirage of selective attention than fact.

Under Izzo, Mich. St. traditionally starts the season ranked in the Top 25/Top 10 and underperforms its ranking, sometimes falling completely out of the rankings, only to get it's act together in time for the tournament. Then the media narrative inevitably is, "Wow, look at Izzo bringing another group of rag-tag players from mediocrity and into the second week of the tournament!"

In reality, based on preseason expectations, there are perhaps two Mich St. teams since the 2000-01 season that actually greatly out-performed their preseason ranking.

to be fair, pre-season rankings are often enormously incorrect....So evaluating a team's progress over the course of the year against their preseason ranking is fraught with peril.

His teams seemingly perform worse in the fall and better in the spring. Whether that is because of good coaching over the year, or poor preparation early in the year is almost impossible to discern. It seems to work for them and they have a ton of post-season success....so I won't begrudge them that....and if it is some design by Izzo that he thinks gives them an edge but compromises early performances? All the best to them.

There are coaches out there that will risk losses during the year to be better in march....Geno, to reference someone I am familiar with, does this kind of thing all the time....for instance, often putting the players in a "sink or swim" kind of situation, either with personnel or scheme or whatever (given lately the players are good enough to win anyway). K certainly does not subscribe to that philosophy.

There are multiple ways to skin a cat.

[Sir Stealth]

to be fair, pre-season rankings are often enormously incorrect...So evaluating a team's progress over the course of the year against their preseason ranking is fraught with peril.

His teams seemingly perform worse in the fall and better in the spring. Whether that is because of good coaching over the year, or poor preparation early in the year is almost impossible to discern. It seems to work for them and they have a ton of post-season success...so I won't begrudge them that...and if it is some design by Izzo that he thinks gives them an edge but compromises early performances? All the best to them.

There are coaches out there that will risk losses during the year to be better in march...Geno, to reference someone I am familiar with, does this kind of thing all the time...for instance, often putting the players in a "sink or swim" kind of situation, either with personnel or scheme or whatever (given lately the players are good enough to win anyway). K certainly does not subscribe to that philosophy.

There are multiple ways to skin a cat.

Links I've found to the actual articles seem to be broken, but hasn't Pomeroy written about how preseason rankings are actually as good or better at predicting tournament success than end of season rankings? Obviously there are going to be some significant misevaluations, but there is some evidence that preseason rankings are a meaningful predictor of how a team should be expected to perform.

[MChambers]

Links I've found to the actual articles seem to be broken, but hasn't Pomeroy written about how preseason rankings are actually as good or better at predicting tournament success than end of season rankings? Obviously there are going to be some significant misevaluations, but there is some evidence that preseason rankings are a meaningful predictor of how a team should be expected to perform.

Good memory!

http://kenpom.com/blog/the-pre-season-ap-poll-is-great

He has a few follow up articles on the topic, too, if you search on his website.

[JasonEvans]

Maybe it is that MSU gets highly ranked in preseason not because of talent but because of the expectation that Izzo will "coach em up." Then, the regular season rolls along and they struggle early while Izzo begins bringing them together. As a result, at the end of the year they are about what we expected in preseason because the full process has happened. Isn't that possible?

-Jason "also, back on topic with this thread, Texas lost again last night, putting another smudge on what appeared to be a nice win by NWestern just a few weeks ago" Evans

[uh_no]

Links I've found to the actual articles seem to be broken, but hasn't Pomeroy written about how preseason rankings are actually as good or better at predicting tournament success than end of season rankings? Obviously there are going to be some significant misevaluations, but there is some evidence that preseason rankings are a meaningful predictor of how a team should be expected to perform.

I would imagine that's because the in season polls are extremely reactive to wins and losses, whereas spread, it turns out, should be carrying far more weight in reevaluating teams.

As Jason pointed out, though, ultimately the preseason polls are going to be trying to predict season success, which in this sport is determined almost solely by post season success, and in the case of MSU, this may be because they expect Izzo to get whatever personnel to perform regardless of how poorly they play to begin the season.

Anyway, I'm not sure where the whole conversation is going...I find it hard to see any argument that Izzo isn't a really good coach given the amount of major success he's had over such a long period of time.

[MChambers]

The Wildcats fell to Sparty tonight, in East Lansing. MSU jumped to a big lead. Northwestern trimmed the lead to 4 early in the second half, but then went cold. Northwestern's bigs got in foul trouble and couldn't handle Nick Ward. As an aside, I thought the officiating was pretty poor, but it didn't determine the outcome. Bad calls went both ways.

[ChillinDuke]

The Wildcats fell to Sparty tonight, in East Lansing. MSU jumped to a big lead. Northwestern trimmed the lead to 4 early in the second half, but then went cold. Northwestern's bigs got in foul trouble and couldn't handle Nick Ward. As an aside, I thought the officiating was pretty poor, but it didn't determine the outcome. Bad calls went both ways.

Somewhat expected outcome for NW. They get Minny (#46) at home next on 1/5. NW sits at #43. That's the type of game they're going to need to win if they expect to go dancin. They swept Minny last year by a combined 49 pts.

- Chillin

[ChillinDuke]

Sounds like they may get Derek Pardon back for their next game against Minny. He was averaging 7 and 7 before his injury.

- Chillin

[CDu]

Sounds like they may get Derek Pardon back for their next game against Minny. He was averaging 7 and 7 before his injury.

- Chillin

They may need him. The Gophers just beat Purdue.

[MChambers]

They definitely need him. His backups, Skelly and Benson, aren't really starter quality. They're valuable reserves, and Benson is only a freshman, so I expect he'll be a good player for the Wildcats, but he's not there yet.

[ipatent]

Nice road win at Nebraska today, the kind you have to win to get an at large bid.

[JasonEvans]

Big stretch coming up for NW (currently 40 in Kenpom) over the next two weeks starting tonight. @Rutgers (134), Iowa (79), @Ohio St (53), and Nebraska (87). Those are 4 very beatable teams in the BigTen. Even going 3-1 against that slate would put you at 5-3 in the league. Losing to Wisconsin, Purdue, and Michigan St (huge surprise, they are playing really well again) is ok, but you can't make the dance without beating those middle/lower tier programs fairly consistently.

Do Chris' boys have what it takes? I sure hope so!

-Jason "meanwhile, Wojo at Marquette is 11-5 and 38 in Pomeroy. They too are right around the bubble and after getting DePaul (180) this weekend will have 3 monster games @Butler (18), @Creighton (19), and Villanova (3)... chances for a season-defining win!" Evans

[BigWayne]

NW took care of Rutgers last night.

Currently they sit around #40 in RPI (http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_191_Men.html), which is on the edge but should get then in as the last at large team in should be between the 40-44th ranked team by the committee. ~24 bids will go to AQs with RPI >60.

Remaining schedule is in their favor. They have 8 home games left against 5 on the road and they have already played 2 of the top 3 Big10 teams on their schedule. #3 is MD and they get them at home on 2/15.

[Olympic Fan]

NW took care of Rutgers last night.

Currently they sit around #40 in RPI (http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_191_Men.html), which is on the edge but should get then in as the last at large team in should be between the 40-44th ranked team by the committee. ~24 bids will go to AQs with RPI >60.

Remaining schedule is in their favor. They have 8 home games left against 5 on the road and they have already played 2 of the top 3 Big10 teams on their schedule. #3 is MD and they get them at home on 2/15.

I watched last night and Northwestern's quest to make the NCAA field was a major topic by the announcers, who both thought they were on track to make it.

Beating Rutgers at Rutgers is not the kind of win that really helps, but a loss would have really hurt -- Rutgers is one of the worst P5 teams in the country (maybe worse than Boston College).

The next four games are big for the Wildcats -- three are at home against teams they can beat (Iowa, Nebraska and slumping Indiana). The one road game in this stretch is Ohio State, which is definitely vulnerable.

Also watching Marquette to see if Wojo can get to the NCAA. I watched them lose a heartbreaker at Seton Hall on Jan. 1 -- they were up three with 30 seconds left, then gave up a six-point possession (a layup and a plus one ... missed FT, but offensive rebound and a follow and a plus one ... missed FT again and another follow shot). They did bounce back Wednesday night to beat Seton Hall in the rematch in OT.

The odd thing is that Pomeroy rates Marquette (35) higher than Northwestern (37). But while I think Northwestern is in the field as of today, I think 11-5 (2-2 Big East) Marquette is out. Wojo's guys will have to turn it up to make the Dance.

[Blue KevIL]

NW took care of Rutgers last night.

Currently they sit around #40 in RPI (http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_191_Men.html), which is on the edge but should get then in as the last at large team in should be between the 40-44th ranked team by the committee. ~24 bids will go to AQs with RPI >60.

Remaining schedule is in their favor. They have 8 home games left against 5 on the road and they have already played 2 of the top 3 Big10 teams on their schedule. #3 is MD and they get them at home on 2/15.


NU is 3-1 on the road in Big Ten play & 0-1 at home.
The Cats really need to get some home wins in this stretch.

[Clay Feet POF]

Also watching Marquette to see if Wojo can get to the NCAA. I watched them lose a heartbreaker at Seton Hall on Jan. 1 -- they were up three with 30 seconds left, then gave up a six-point possession (a layup and a plus one ... missed FT, but offensive rebound and a follow and a plus one ... missed FT again and another follow shot). They did bounce back Wednesday night to beat Seton Hall in the rematch in OT.

The odd thing is that Pomeroy rates Marquette (35) higher than Northwestern (37). But while I think Northwestern is in the field as of today, I think 11-5 (2-2 Big East) Marquette is out. Wojo's guys will have to turn it up to make the Dance.


Yeah, Wojo's team has talent (Especially Markus Howard small guard) but not much Muscle for the Big East

[BigWayne]

I watched last night and Northwestern's quest to make the NCAA field was a major topic by the announcers, who both thought they were on track to make it.

Beating Rutgers at Rutgers is not the kind of win that really helps, but a loss would have really hurt -- Rutgers is one of the worst P5 teams in the country (maybe worse than Boston College).

The next four games are big for the Wildcats -- three are at home against teams they can beat (Iowa, Nebraska and slumping Indiana). The one road game in this stretch is Ohio State, which is definitely vulnerable.

Also watching Marquette to see if Wojo can get to the NCAA. I watched them lose a heartbreaker at Seton Hall on Jan. 1 -- they were up three with 30 seconds left, then gave up a six-point possession (a layup and a plus one ... missed FT, but offensive rebound and a follow and a plus one ... missed FT again and another follow shot). They did bounce back Wednesday night to beat Seton Hall in the rematch in OT.

The odd thing is that Pomeroy rates Marquette (35) higher than Northwestern (37). But while I think Northwestern is in the field as of today, I think 11-5 (2-2 Big East) Marquette is out. Wojo's guys will have to turn it up to make the Dance.
Wojo has a touch road ahead also. They have 2 games left against Depaul that they should(must) win. They have five games against teams sharing the middle of the conference rankings with them, but they have seven games against Butler/Xavier/Creighton/Villanova where they will not be expected to win. If they don't step it up, they will finish around 17-13(8-10) and they will probably be out. They need to elevate and take care of business on the teams equal or below them and pick up at least one win against the top 4 teams.

[Clay Feet POF]

Wojo has a touch road ahead also. They have 2 games left against Depaul that they should(must) win. They have five games against teams sharing the middle of the conference rankings with them, but they have seven games against Butler/Xavier/Creighton/Villanova where they will not be expected to win. If they don't step it up, they will finish around 17-13(8-10) and they will probably be out. They need to elevate and take care of business on the teams equal or below them and pick up at least one win against the top 4 teams.

You are very astute, absolutely Right on.

[ChillinDuke]

NW demolished Iowa wire-to-wire going on runs of 8-0, 14-1, and 20-1, finally winning by 35.

Iowa isn't looking tourney-bound. But they're decent at #86 KenPom (ranking after the loss).

Needless to say, NW was clicking on all cylinders.

- Chillin

[JasonEvans]

Now 4-2 in the conference and 15-4 overall. I can't believe the media isn't paying more attention to this. To repeat, NORTHWESTERN HAS NEVER BEEN TO THE NCAA TOURNAMENT!!

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-AgVLflBeqwg/U7L4nwcRkeI/AAAAAAAAAxI/OHp3_3eCQ7c/s1600/dream-seek-achieve.jpg

-Jason "currently #38 in the RPI and #33 in KenPom" Evans

[Troublemaker]

In the Bracket Matrix (http://www.bracketmatrix.com/) dated 1/16/17, Northwestern is an 8 seed. They are in if they keep this up.

[Troublemaker]

Now 4-2 in the conference and 15-4 overall. I can't believe the media isn't paying more attention to this. To repeat, NORTHWESTERN HAS NEVER BEEN TO THE NCAA TOURNAMENT!!

I would expect NU alum Michael Wilbon to reference this at some point on PTI.

[JasonEvans]

I would expect NU alum Michael Wilbon to reference this at some point on PTI.

In fairness, the 4 B!g wins for NW are Rutgers (136 KenPom), Iowa (86), Nebraska (83), and Penn St (80)... not exactly murderer's row. Their losses are to MSU (44) and Minnesota (38). What would probably get the media's attention would be a high profile win, like against Wisconsin (9), Purdue (15), Indiana (26), or Maryland (48, but 16-2 overall and ranked #25 this week). Anyway, a win against one of those teams that feel like perennial blue bloods would really get some attention. Ohio St (57) might also raise some eyebrows.

-Jason "the B!G is fairly weak this year -- it will take being a couple games above .500 to get the selection committee's attention" Evans

[Olympic Fan]

BTW, Marquette suffered a devastating loss Monday night.

They were in position for a gigantic win -- up 18 on No. 15 Butler at Butler. But they collapsed down the stretch and lost by eight.

While Northwestern is currently on the good side of the bubble ... Marquette, while not out of it, is on the wrong side of the bubble at the moment.

[flyingdutchdevil]

BTW, Marquette suffered a devastating loss Monday night.

They were in position for a gigantic win -- up 18 on No. 15 Butler at Butler. But they collapsed down the stretch and lost by eight.

While Northwestern is currently on the good side of the bubble ... Marquette, while not out of it, is on the wrong side of the bubble at the moment.

Wojo is in a tough spot. Unlike Collins or Amaker, Wojo doesn't have the luxury of patience at a program like Marquette. Prior to Wojo, Marquette made the tournament 10 of 13 times. This is a program that has enjoyed basketball success in the last 20 years.

[ChillinDuke]

Wojo is in a tough spot. Unlike Collins or Amaker, Wojo doesn't have the luxury of patience at a program like Marquette. Prior to Wojo, Marquette made the tournament 10 of 13 times. This is a program that has enjoyed basketball success in the last 20 years.

I agree with your point but would like to highlight an important distinction.

The Big East, IMHO, is not the conference it once was. Quite literally. Having lost defectors in the last great Conference Realignment, schisming in half with the (now) AAC with mainly the Catholic schools remaining, and including no (no?) Div-1 football programs, the Big East is not likely to command the sort of basketball allure that it once did, even as recently as a few years ago. With this in mind, programs like Marquette are destined to lose market share as the supply of basketball players substitute away in favor of more compelling schools/conferences/competition/visibility/etc. To compare Marquette's program 10 years ago to Marquette's program today is probably not fair. There's a reason Buzz jumped to Va Tech - a comparative ACC also-ran.

To be clear, this doesn't mean that their fans will subscribe to this logic (they almost certainly won't). Nor does it contradict that Wojo is, in all likelihood, in a tough spot (he is).

- Chillin

[Olympic Fan]

I agree with your point but would like to highlight an important distinction.

The Big East, IMHO, is not the conference it once was. Quite literally. Having lost defectors in the last great Conference Realignment, schisming in half with the (now) AAC with mainly the Catholic schools remaining, and including no (no?) Div-1 football programs, the Big East is not likely to command the sort of basketball allure that it once did, even as recently as a few years ago. With this in mind, programs like Marquette are destined to lose market share as the supply of basketball players substitute away in favor of more compelling schools/conferences/competition/visibility/etc. To compare Marquette's program 10 years ago to Marquette's program today is probably not fair. There's a reason Buzz jumped to Va Tech - a comparative ACC also-ran.

To be clear, this doesn't mean that their fans will subscribe to this logic (they almost certainly won't). Nor does it contradict that Wojo is, in all likelihood, in a tough spot (he is).

- Chillin

Obviously, the Big East is not what it was before the ACC stole Syracuse, Louisville (actually, Louisville went from the Big East to the AAC to the ACC), Notre Dame and Pitt (and, before that, Boston College, Miami and Virginia Tech)

But the current Big East is still a legitimate power conference (in basketball, not football). It may be the nation's second best conference this season with defending national champions (Villanova), plus ranked teams Creighton, Butler and Xavier. There are also traditionally strong programs at St. John's and Georgetown, which do happen to be down this year ... and, of course, Marquette, which boasts a strong history - and very high expectations.

[ChillinDuke]

Obviously, the Big East is not what it was before the ACC stole Syracuse, Louisville (actually, Louisville went from the Big East to the AAC to the ACC), Notre Dame and Pitt (and, before that, Boston College, Miami and Virginia Tech)

But the current Big East is still a legitimate power conference (in basketball, not football). It may be the nation's second best conference this season with defending national champions (Villanova), plus ranked teams Creighton, Butler and Xavier. There are also traditionally strong programs at St. John's and Georgetown, which do happen to be down this year ... and, of course, Marquette, which boasts a strong history - and very high expectations.

It may be. But I think that's somewhat missing the forest for the trees. I'd be surprised to see them trot out this strong a conference perennially going forward. They're obviously not going to keel over and willingly cede ground in the college basketball arms race. I think it's going to be tough for them to maintain relative quality as the years progress and the "newness" of the "saved" Big East slowly wears off. You may very well be seeing it already as G'Town and St. John's are a combined 19-20 overall, 4-9 in conference. Down year for them, indeed.

ETA - You're witnessing the first year of crazy competitive ACC ball (which we've been expecting for some years now). The B1G is down, I don't expect that to continue. The B12 has historically been on the strong side, and I see no reason to expect that to stop. And the SEC has had an influx of coaches with strong resumes recently - I'd expect them to slowly build that conference up from the Kentucky-only lows they've had in previous years. And the Conference of Champions has been unimpressive for quite some time as well, although Bill Walton may disagree. There have to be some winners and some losers. I'd expect the Big East to lose over time. But I could certainly be wrong.

This could be a nice deep year for the Big East, sans G'Town and St. John's. Or it could just be the way the cards are falling. Only time will tell.

- Chillin

[weezie]

This is interesting:


http://www.freep.com/story/sports/college/2017/01/17/julia-louis-dreyfus-northwestern-basketball/96665538/

As her late father was a Duke graduate, her son is now in good hands, too.

[ChillinDuke]

#31 Northwestern (15-4) has #57 Ohio St (12-7) on Sunday, in Columbus.

Road games are never easy, but I'd say this is the game that can definitively put them over the hump compared to prior years. Win this and they are comfortably in and probably Top-30 KenPom. Lose this and they're maybe still in but more bubble-ish. Plenty of basketball to be played so this game doesn't make or break anything, but it frames the backdrop of NW's tourney hopes quite well IMO.

I expect the Wildcats to be 3-point underdogs when the lines post this weekend.

- Chillin

[Jeffrey]

Wojo is in a tough spot. Unlike Collins or Amaker, Wojo doesn't have the luxury of patience at a program like Marquette. Prior to Wojo, Marquette made the tournament 10 of 13 times. This is a program that has enjoyed basketball success in the last 20 years.

OTOH, Marquette's historical success helps recruiting.

I'd rather be in Wojo's spot, than the spot Quin chose. There's serious pressure when your predecessor's name is on the court. Imagine succeeding Coach K.

[niveklaen]

OTOH, Marquette's historical success helps recruiting.

I'd rather be in Wojo's spot, than the spot Quin chose. There's serious pressure when your predecessor's name is on the court. Imagine succeeding Coach K.

I don't think Quin would trade his job at Utah for the Marquette position :D

[Jeffrey]

I don't think Quin would trade his job at Utah for the Marquette position :D

I don't think it matters what happens at Utah, we will never see Quin coach college hoops again. Nobody, in their right mind, would want to press rewind on his Missouri years.

It's great to see Quin get the respect and admiration he deserves. The hoops world would have taken a true loss if Quin had gone another direction after Missouri.

[pfrduke]

#31 Northwestern (15-4) has #57 Ohio St (12-7) on Sunday, in Columbus.

Road games are never easy, but I'd say this is the game that can definitively put them over the hump compared to prior years. Win this and they are comfortably in and probably Top-30 KenPom. Lose this and they're maybe still in but more bubble-ish. Plenty of basketball to be played so this game doesn't make or break anything, but it frames the backdrop of NW's tourney hopes quite well IMO.

I expect the Wildcats to be 3-point underdogs when the lines post this weekend.

- Chillin

I get what you're saying, but no one is "comfortably in" yet. That happens when you get to the point where you know you can lose the rest of your games and still make it.

[ChillinDuke]

I get what you're saying, but no one is "comfortably in" yet. That happens when you get to the point where you know you can lose the rest of your games and still make it.

I mean, obviously. Doesn't that go without saying? Would you tell a doctor during surgery, "Be careful, if you tear an artery, the patient will bleed"?

If the season ended on Sunday after a Northwestern win over OSU, they would be in the NCAAT. By almost any metric. 16-4 with no double digit losses (and all losses to teams currently ranked 46 or higher in KenPom), 5-2 in conference, #31 KenPom, #39 RPI. And those rankings would presumably improve if they win on Sunday. So as far as viewing things on a moment-in-time basis, Northwestern IMO would be "comfortably in."

- Chillin

[Troublemaker]

Starting to receive press now. Article on espn.com about the Quest (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/18493863/northwestern-wildcats-trying-the-cubs-do-never-done)

[ChillinDuke]

Perhaps you all were thinking of this, but it's just now starting to dawn on me what a major achievement and resume bullet this would be for Collins. An excellent way to kick off his head coaching career and almost certainly ensuring that even if he were to get fired at Northwestern he'd get picked up somewhere else.

Really pulling for him. @tOSU could be a statement maker.

- Chillin

[JetpackJesus]

Starting to receive press now. Article on espn.com about the Quest (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/18493863/northwestern-wildcats-trying-the-cubs-do-never-done)

I was happy to see something written about the quest. I just wish the piece talked a bit less about the Cubs.

[Olympic Fan]

Great win for Wojo and Marquette vs. Creighton.

They get Nova un Milwaukee next -- win that and they're back in the field (at least temporarily).

[Blue KevIL]

Weekly Wildcat Watch:

Huge Win for Coach Collins!
Northwestern wins 74-72 at Ohio State.

It's the first NU win in Columbus since FEB-24-1977.
The Wildcats are now 5-53 at OSU since the 1949-50 Big Ten season.

Northwestern improves to 5-2 in Big Ten play and 16-4 overall.
Home games next week against Nebraska (THU) & Indiana (SUN).

[chrishoke]

Collins and NW with a huge win at Ohio State today 74-72.

[MChambers]

Northwestern just took care of business, beating tOSU in Columbus, 74-72, despite some weird heroics from the Buckeyes in the last minute.

[brevity]

Weird how many of us were watching this game.

Chris Collins breaks 40 years of futility in Columbus. To put that into perspective, if you paid me a dollar for every year Northwestern basketball fans had to wait for a true road win against Ohio State, I would reply, "There are Northwestern basketball fans?"

Yes, there are, and this is starting to look real. Here are the KenPom ratings for the Big Ten:

10. Wisconsin
12. Purdue
30. Indiana
31. Northwestern
39. Minnesota
43. Michigan
44. Maryland
50. Michigan State
57. Ohio State
72. Illinois
79. Penn State
86. Nebraska
90. Iowa
134. Rutgers

[CDu]

This win marks the point at which I think it may actually happen. Up until today, NU didn't have a meaningful win. Their best win was a home win over Wake. They had several "good losses" (close losses to good teams), but no wins.

Now, OSU isn't great. But beating a top-75 team on the road is nothing to sneeze at. The Wildcats legitimately have a chance now. Rooting for it to happen. If they can win at least one against Michigan and Maryland and avoid any bad losses, they should get there. Getting one against Indiana, Purdue, or Wisconsin would help too.

[ChillinDuke]

Big time win!

Now they get Nebraska at home. They already beat them on the road by 8. If they can hold serve there and take down the "mighty," cheat-beatin' Hoosiers, then we're talking about serious breathing room.

Don't look now, but Northwestern is about to be ranked in an hour or so.

- Chillin

[wilson]

Big time win!

Now they get Nebraska at home. They already beat them on the road by 8. If they can hold serve there and take down the "mighty," cheat-beatin' Hoosiers, then we're talking about serious breathing room.

Don't look now, but Northwestern is about to be ranked in an hour or so.

- ChillinNo dice for Northwestern in this week's AP poll...up to the 28th slot (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings).
They were closer to being ranked in the Coaches' poll though, so there's still hope when the second poll comes out shortly.

[wilson]

No dice for Northwestern in this week's AP poll...up to the 28th slot (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings).
They were closer to being ranked in the Coaches' poll though, so there's still hope when the second poll comes out shortly.Close, but no AP poll cigar either. #26. (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings)

[ChillinDuke]

Close, but no AP poll cigar either. #26. (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings)

Woooooow. How, pray tell, does #21 Florida lose two games last week and not drop out of the USA Today poll? They moved to #25?!

- Chillin

[BigWayne]

Woooooow. How, pray tell, does #21 Florida lose two games last week and not drop out of the USA Today poll? They moved to #25?!

- Chillin

Computer rankings. RPI based sites still have Florida around #10/11. Stats based sites like Sagarin and Kenpom have them in the 16-20 range. This is mostly due to having no "bad losses" yet and 4 top 50 wins, I would guess.

[ChillinDuke]

Computer rankings. RPI based sites still have Florida around #10/11. Stats based sites like Sagarin and Kenpom have them in the 16-20 range. This is mostly due to having no "bad losses" yet and 4 top 50 wins, I would guess.

OK, I guess. I mean it's not an exact science, but I'd still expect them to drop out.

For example, UNCW is the second team receiving votes after Northwestern (~#27). Computers* have them at 42.

- Chillin

*Pom, Ken

[jv001]

Woooooow. How, pray tell, does #21 Florida lose two games last week and not drop out of the USA Today poll? They moved to #25?!

- Chillin

Let's hope Florida stays in the top 25. That's a good win for Duke. GoDuke!

[Tom B.]

No dice for Northwestern in this week's AP poll...up to the 28th slot (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings).
They were closer to being ranked in the Coaches' poll though, so there's still hope when the second poll comes out shortly.

Given current trendlines, next week could see Northwestern ranked and Duke unranked.

[OZ]

Given current trendlines, next week could see Northwestern ranked and Duke unranked.


Perhaps, we need to start a Duke Quest.

[MChambers]

Northwestern took down the Cornhuskers Thursday, with Dererk Pardon getting 17 points and 22(!) boards. Indiana comes to Evanston Sunday evening, which will be a big game for the Wildcats. Welsh-Ryan should be rocking.

Northwestern is up to #30 in Pomeroy;Indiana is #38, despite beating that team in baby blue.

[MChambers]

Northwestern is tied with Indiana, 12-12, after being down 10-1. Indiana is playing a walk on off the bench, a kid named Zack McRoberts, brother of some former Duke guy.

[MChambers]

Northwestern up 19-12, on an 18-2 run. Looks like Collins can coach defense.

[dukejim1]

Northwestern up 19-12, on an 18-2 run. Looks like Collins can coach defense.

Northwestern playing more like Duke than Duke is.

[DukieInBrasil]

N'western up 12 at the half on IU!!! Collins is coaching his team up the right way!

[arnie]

N'western up 12 at the half on IU!!! Collins is coaching his team up the right way!
Under Collins, will NW become the Duke of the Midwest?

[Blue KevIL]

Northwestern wins 68-55 over the Hoosiers & improves to 18-4 and 7-2 in the Big Ten (just 0.5 games out of 1st place).
It's their sixth conference win in a row -- their longest conference win streak since 1933.

The Wildcats are very likely to be ranked on Monday in the AP Poll for just the 13th time ever and the first time since 12/28/2009.
NU has never been ranked this late in a season before. The other seasons the 'Cats have been ranked: 1955 (1 wk), 1959 (7 wks), 1969 (3 wks) & 2010 (1 wk).

Only one game ahead this week: Wednesday at Purdue.

Coach Collins has a very fun team to watch.
They play hard and defend like crazy.

[westwall]

Northwestern wins 68-55 over the Hoosiers & improves to 18-4 and 7-2 in the Big Ten (just 0.5 games out of 1st place).
It's their sixth conference win in a row -- their longest conference win streak since 1933.

The Wildcats are very likely to be ranked on Monday in the AP Poll for just the 13th time ever and the first time since 12/28/2009.
NU has never been ranked this late in a season before. The other seasons the 'Cats have been ranked: 1955 (1 wk), 1959 (7 wks), 1969 (3 wks) & 2010 (1 wk).

Only one game ahead this week: Wednesday at Purdue.

Coach Collins has a very fun team to watch.
They play hard and defend like crazy.


Quality win over a distinguished opponent.

[jwillfan]

This is pretty remarkable. Could see him being in the running if he keeps it up.

[Blue KevIL]

Welcome to the AP Poll, #25 Northwestern Wildcats.

Duke checks in at #21

[ChillinDuke]

Didn't get a chance to watch the game but obviously hats off to Collins and NW.

The good news is that NW has plenty of winnable games left to solidify an NCAAT berth. They have two games against #12 Purdue and one against #11 Wisco.

Other than that, none of their remaining opponents are ranked higher than them in KenPom. They get a home game against a (perhaps AP-overrated) Maryland team that is #40 in KenPom, two games against a middling Illinois team (#67), and then a Rutgers (#129) team that, save a 1-point win over Nebraska, essentially just walks into the gym and then walks out again.

They also get a rematch with Indiana on the road (#39) and Michigan at home (#35).

[I'll include the obligatory caveat that someone will inevitably raise: "Lot of basketball left to play. No one is in the tournament until Selection Sunday."]

To my eye (and I'm on record of thinking a monkey could do Lunardi's job), if NW can beat Illinois twice, attend the Rutgers game, and find just one other win, they will enter the B1G Tourney at 22-9 overall and 11-7 in conference. That, in and of itself, should be enough to get them in. Especially because there are currently only 5 B1G teams over .500 in conference.

If NW flips one of the Purdue/Wisco games into the win column, they have even more cushion. If they lose an Illinois game or fail to get to New Brunswick on time (ETA: the Rutgers game is at home but I thought this was funny and refuse to change it), and all else holds in my hypothetical, they'll look more "bubbly" but I'd think still on the right side of it - but it's up for debate.

- Chillin

[CDu]

Didn't get a chance to watch the game but obviously hats off to Collins and NW.

The good news is that NW has plenty of winnable games left to solidify an NCAAT berth. They have two games against #12 Purdue and one against #11 Wisco.

Other than that, none of their remaining opponents are ranked higher than them in KenPom. They get a home game against a (perhaps AP-overrated) Maryland team that is #40 in KenPom, two games against a middling Illinois team (#67), and then a Rutgers (#129) team that, save a 1-point win over Nebraska, essentially just walks into the gym and then walks out again.

They also get a rematch with Indiana on the road (#39) and Michigan at home (#35).

[I'll include the obligatory caveat that someone will inevitably raise: "Lot of basketball left to play. No one is in the tournament until Selection Sunday."]

To my eye (and I'm on record of thinking a monkey could do Lunardi's job), if NW can beat Illinois twice, attend the Rutgers game, and find just one other win, they will enter the B1G Tourney at 22-9 overall and 11-7 in conference. That, in and of itself, should be enough to get them in. Especially because there are currently only 5 B1G teams over .500 in conference.

If NW flips one of the Purdue/Wisco games into the win column, they have even more cushion. If they lose an Illinois game or fail to get to New Brunswick on time, and all else holds in my hypothetical, they'll look more "bubbly" but I'd think still on the right side of it - but it's up for debate.

- Chillin

Yup, Northwestern just needed to knock off at least one of the better Big 10 teams and not lose to the weaker Big 10 teams. They've done that. Holding serve now should be enough to get them in. The key will be not losing focus against the lesser teams. A stumble or two puts then back in jeopardy. But as of right now, I'd say they are comfortably in the field.

[smythe13]

It was a good win for Northwestern. Indiana has some major injuries with Blackmon (out indefinitely) and Anunouby (out for the year) both out of the lineup last night. Not sure how quality they are right now or if they will make the tournament. A win is a win!!!

[JasonEvans]

But as of right now, I'd say they are comfortably in the field.

Lunardi currently has them as a #7 seed (playing #10 Clemson in a portion of the bracket where Duke is a #5). Bracket Matrix also has them as a #7 (and also has Duke as a #5).

[CDu]

It was a good win for Northwestern. Indiana has some major injuries with Blackmon (out indefinitely) and Anunouby (out for the year) both out of the lineup last night. Not sure how quality they are right now or if they will make the tournament. A win is a win!!!

Yeah, fortunately the committee doesn't discount a team's wins over injured opponents (they may discount Indiana's loss though). So it still counts as a good win for the Wildcats.

[duketaylor]

Duke prolly move up in seeding tonight, maybe as high as a 3, but where? Should be fun to watch going forward. Last week pundits had Duke with two arrows down as to current movement, may have changed now;) Gonna start looking at NCAA tix in the region.

[ChillinDuke]

NW getting spanked at Purdue by 22 at half, 45-23. Luckily this was a game NW was expected to lose so I don't think a blowout changes much.

Worth noting if this holds, this is by far the biggest margin of loss NW has had all year. Which I mention as a positive.

- Chillin

[Blue KevIL]

NW getting spanked at Purdue by 22 at half, 45-23. Luckily this was a game NW was expected to lose so I don't think a blowout changes much.

Worth noting if this holds, this is by far the biggest margin of loss NW has had all year. Which I mention as a positive.

- Chillin

And to put a degree of difficulty on an already difficult game, NU is playing with its leading scorer, Scottie Lindsey (out with an illness).

[ChillinDuke]

And to put a degree of difficulty on an already difficult game, NU is playing with its leading scorer, Scottie Lindsey (out with an illness).

Good point. I hadn't realized that.

NW couldn't really put a charge in during the second half, getting no closer than 14 and losing by 21. Swanigan was a beast. Remember when we were looking at him?

On to a friendlier Illinois team at home on Tues.

- Chillin

[Billy Dat]

This announcement is another sign that things are headed in the right direction

http://nusports.com/news/2017/2/6/TrienensPerformanceCenter.aspx

[MChambers]

This announcement is another sign that things are headed in the right direction

http://nusports.com/news/2017/2/6/TrienensPerformanceCenter.aspx
Longer-term, yes, but the basketball teams will play their games off campus next year, so that won't be good.

In other news, Northwestern's leading scorer, Scottie Lindsey, has been out for a week with an unspecified illness, and won't play tonight. Since the Wildcats already lost another forward, Falzone, for the season, they are really short on wings.

[luvdahops]

Longer-term, yes, but the basketball teams will play their games off campus next year, so that won't be good.

In other news, Northwestern's leading scorer, Scottie Lindsey, has been out for a week with an unspecified illness, and won't play tonight. Since the Wildcats already lost another forward, Falzone, for the season, they are really short on wings.

I believe Lindsey has mono, per the Trib this am. He will be back this season, but timing is still up in the air.

[Bluedog]

Longer-term, yes, but the basketball teams will play their games off campus next year, so that won't be good.

Yep, nobody is going to want to watch games at the Allstate Arena (as DePaul has learned). I've been to Northwestern games over the years (including one this year) and they definitely need an upgrade to the stadium. The floor and jumbotron are nice and new, but the benches in the majority of the stadium are terrible and very uncomfortable. I kinda like old gyms, though, but would be happy with a seat upgrade at least (the rest of the stuff is a "nice to have" but not critical from my perspective...obviously with a $110M upgrade, they're doing more than just replacing the seats).

[MChambers]

I believe Lindsey has mono, per the Trib this am. He will be back this season, but timing is still up in the air.

I had heard there were concerns he might have mono, but hadn't seen it confirmed. That can keep you out for a while, and limit your effectiveness when you return, as longtime Duke fans know (see Dunleavy, Michael).

That could really hurt Northwestern.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Longer-term, yes, but the basketball teams will play their games off campus next year, so that won't be good.

In other news, Northwestern's leading scorer, Scottie Lindsey, has been out for a week with an unspecified illness, and won't play tonight. Since the Wildcats already lost another forward, Falzone, for the season, they are really short on wings.

Won't matter as Collins - if he makes the tournament this year - won't be at NW for long.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Won't matter as Collins - if he makes the tournament this year - won't be at NW for long.

Where do you think he would go? They are investing a lot in the program. It is in a major conference. It is in his hometown and a nice place to raise his family. They generally have low expectations so it isn't a ton of pressure - if he makes the tournament this year he will buy himself a ton of job security. He waited a long time to take this job - he doesn't strike me as a job hopper. I think it will take a lot to make him leave.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Where do you think he would go? They are investing a lot in the program. It is in a major conference. It is in his hometown and a nice place to raise his family. They generally have low expectations so it isn't a ton of pressure - if he makes the tournament this year he will buy himself a ton of job security. He waited a long time to take this job - he doesn't strike me as a job hopper. I think it will take a lot to make him leave.

These statements are counterintuitive. If you invest, you are expected to win. And once a school gets the taste of winning, it wants more.

If Collins makes it to the tourney, that's huge. He'll be "Man of the Year" at Northwestern. However, sustaining success is incredibly difficult. At a school like NW, it's nearly impossible, given the lack of pedigree and basketball history. How many schools have gone from "basically irrelevant" to "relevant"? It's a short list, and I assume that if I say, "Duke" a ton of posters will say, "Duke was relevant pre-Coach K".

If Collins wants to be elite, he cannot stay at NW. I assume every coach wants to be elite. I would hope that an assistant coach under Coach K would want to be elite.

So, while Collins may not leave next year (if NW makes the tourney), I'd be shocked if he was still at NW in 2019.

[sagegrouse]

These statements are counterintuitive. If you invest, you are expected to win. And once a school gets the taste of winning, it wants more.

If Collins makes it to the tourney, that's huge. He'll be "Man of the Year" at Northwestern. However, sustaining success is incredibly difficult. At a school like NW, it's nearly impossible, given the lack of pedigree and basketball history. How many schools have gone from "basically irrelevant" to "relevant"? It's a short list, and I assume that if I say, "Duke" a ton of posters will say, "Duke was relevant pre-Coach K".

If Collins wants to be elite, he cannot stay at NW. I assume every coach wants to be elite. I would hope that an assistant coach under Coach K would want to be elite.

So, while Collins may not leave next year (if NW makes the tourney), I'd be shocked if he was still at NW in 2019.

No hurry. He'll wait for the Duke job. Northwestern can match most offers, and there is always a risk in changing jobs.

I wonder how Northwestern is doing in recruiting.

[luvdahops]

These statements are counterintuitive. If you invest, you are expected to win. And once a school gets the taste of winning, it wants more.

If Collins makes it to the tourney, that's huge. He'll be "Man of the Year" at Northwestern. However, sustaining success is incredibly difficult. At a school like NW, it's nearly impossible, given the lack of pedigree and basketball history. How many schools have gone from "basically irrelevant" to "relevant"? It's a short list, and I assume that if I say, "Duke" a ton of posters will say, "Duke was relevant pre-Coach K".

If Collins wants to be elite, he cannot stay at NW. I assume every coach wants to be elite. I would hope that an assistant coach under Coach K would want to be elite.

So, while Collins may not leave next year (if NW makes the tourney), I'd be shocked if he was still at NW in 2019.

I'm with sage on this, especially after following what NU has done with Pat Fitzgerald. As to your question (bolded) above, I suggest taking a quick look at the current AP Top 25. I would argue that a number of currently ranked schools have gone from basically irrelevant to relevant in the recent past:

Gonzaga (1)
Baylor (6)
Virginia (12; program had zero tradition or success pre-Terry Holland)
St. Mary's (20)
Butler (22)
Xavier (24)
SMU (25)

South Carolina (19) had a definite window of success under Frank Maguire in the 60s and early 70s, but has been largely irrelevant since
Creighton (23) has a lot of tradition, but has only been intermittently relevant on a national scale

Though not easy by any means, going from "basically irrelevant" to "relevant" is not nearly as difficult in college hoops as it is in football.

[vick]

I'm with sage on this, especially after following what NU has done with Pat Fitzgerald. As to your question (bolded) above, I suggest taking a quick look at the current AP Top 25. I would argue that a number of currently ranked schools have gone from basically irrelevant to relevant in the recent past:

Gonzaga (1)
Baylor (6)
Virginia (12; program had zero tradition or success pre-Terry Holland)
St. Mary's (20)
Butler (22)
Xavier (24)
SMU (25)

South Carolina (19) had a definite window of success under Frank Maguire in the 60s and early 70s, but has been largely irrelevant since
Creighton (23) has a lot of tradition, but has only been intermittently relevant on a national scale

Yeah, I don't know what Collins will do, but it doesn't seem like there are that few examples of moving to "relevant." In addition to the ones above (which in fairness haven't won championships), UConn had practically zero history before Calhoun, and has now won more titles than Kansas.

[Troublemaker]

Chris is also from Illinois, as was his father Doug, and played high school ball in a suburb of Chicago. So I could definitely see him staying at Northwestern for awhile.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I'm with sage on this, especially after following what NU has done with Pat Fitzgerald. As to your question (bolded) above, I suggest taking a quick look at the current AP Top 25. I would argue that a number of currently ranked schools have gone from basically irrelevant to relevant in the recent past:

Gonzaga (1)
Baylor (6)
Virginia (12; program had zero tradition or success pre-Terry Holland)
St. Mary's (20)
Butler (22)
Xavier (24)
SMU (25)

South Carolina (19) had a definite window of success under Frank Maguire in the 60s and early 70s, but has been largely irrelevant since
Creighton (23) has a lot of tradition, but has only been intermittently relevant on a national scale

Though not easy by any means, going from "basically irrelevant" to "relevant" is not nearly as difficult in college hoops as it is in football.

Here is the tournament history/coaches that went to the NCAA Tournament and where they went to next after taking the team to the tournament:

Gonzaga
-Dan Fitzgerald: retired. 20 years with Gonzaga. 1 NCAA appearence.
-Dan Monson: 2 years at Gonzaga. 1 tournament. Left for Minnesota after post-season success

Baylor
-Gene Iba: took Baylor to its first NCAA tournament in 1988. Baylor decided not to renew contract.
-Good comp otherwise

Virginia
-16 NCAA Tournament appearances prior to Bennett. And they had Ralph Sampson, one of the best college players ever. Comparing NW to UVA is unfair to UVA.

St. Mary's
-2 NCAA appearances prior to Bennett
-Good comp otherwise

Butler
-Thad Matta and Brad Stevens left for greener pastures. This data point works in my favor

Xavier
-Tay Baker: 1 NCAA tournament in 6 seasons. Retired.
-Bob Staak: 1 NCAA tournament in 6 seasons. Left for Wake Forest
-Pete Gillen: 7 NCAA tournaments in 9 seasons. Left for Providence and then Virginia.
-Skip Prosser: 4 NCAA tournaments in 6 seasons. Left for Wake Forest
-Thad Matta: 3 NCAA tournaments in 3 seasons. Left for Ohio State
-Sean Miller: 4 NCAA tournaments in 5 seasons. Left for Arizona

SMU
-Success under the following coaches: Doc Hayes, Sonny Allen, Larry Brown. No success under Matt Doherty


In conclusion, Baylor and St Mary's are good comps, and Baylor is a BCS school. So I take it back; there are examples. Gonzaga had a coach prior to Few who bolted at the first sign of success. Virginia has historical pedigree. Butler and Xavier are mid-majors that launch the careers of multiple good-to-great coaches. And SMU has had some historical success with a legend as the coach before Jankovich.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

These statements are counterintuitive. If you invest, you are expected to win. And once a school gets the taste of winning, it wants more.

If Collins makes it to the tourney, that's huge. He'll be "Man of the Year" at Northwestern. However, sustaining success is incredibly difficult. At a school like NW, it's nearly impossible, given the lack of pedigree and basketball history. How many schools have gone from "basically irrelevant" to "relevant"? It's a short list, and I assume that if I say, "Duke" a ton of posters will say, "Duke was relevant pre-Coach K".

If Collins wants to be elite, he cannot stay at NW. I assume every coach wants to be elite. I would hope that an assistant coach under Coach K would want to be elite.

So, while Collins may not leave next year (if NW makes the tourney), I'd be shocked if he was still at NW in 2019.

I think the pressure to sustain success at Northwestern, especially after he was the one who brought about that success, would be a lot less than the pressure to bring a blue blood back to success. If he was leaving Northwestern after bringing it to success, it most likely would be to go to one of those blue blood type programs which likely has fallen on harder times.

Also, not everyone needs to be "elite." Personally, I don't think much can beat coaching a Big Ten school in a major city where you grew up with the full support of your AD and alumni, lots of familiarity with the recruiting base, and I'm sure a very nice salary. Not every coach wants to be uprooting their family every few years in search of the alleged brass ring. I'm guessing he would take the Duke job in a heartbeat but otherwise it would take a lot to get him out of there.

[luvdahops]

Here is the tournament history/coaches that went to the NCAA Tournament and where they went to next after taking the team to the tournament:

Gonzaga
-Dan Fitzgerald: retired. 20 years with Gonzaga. 1 NCAA appearence.
-Dan Monson: 2 years at Gonzaga. 1 tournament. Left for Minnesota after post-season success

Baylor
-Gene Iba: took Baylor to its first NCAA tournament in 1988. Baylor decided not to renew contract.
-Good comp otherwise

Virginia
-16 NCAA Tournament appearances prior to Bennett. And they had Ralph Sampson, one of the best college players ever. Comparing NW to UVA is unfair to UVA.

St. Mary's
-2 NCAA appearances prior to Bennett
-Good comp otherwise

Butler
-Thad Matta and Brad Stevens left for greener pastures. This data point works in my favor

Xavier
-Tay Baker: 1 NCAA tournament in 6 seasons. Retired.
-Bob Staak: 1 NCAA tournament in 6 seasons. Left for Wake Forest
-Pete Gillen: 7 NCAA tournaments in 9 seasons. Left for Providence and then Virginia.
-Skip Prosser: 4 NCAA tournaments in 6 seasons. Left for Wake Forest
-Thad Matta: 3 NCAA tournaments in 3 seasons. Left for Ohio State
-Sean Miller: 4 NCAA tournaments in 5 seasons. Left for Arizona

SMU
-Success under the following coaches: Doc Hayes, Sonny Allen, Larry Brown. No success under Matt Doherty


In conclusion, Baylor and St Mary's are good comps, and Baylor is a BCS school. So I take it back; there are examples. Gonzaga had a coach prior to Few who bolted at the first sign of success. Virginia has historical pedigree. Butler and Xavier are mid-majors that launch the careers of multiple good-to-great coaches. And SMU has had some historical success with a legend as the coach before Jankovich.

Good post, but you are showing some recency bias in terms of UVA (see my comment above dating when they became relevant), as well as an arguably murky standard on relevance (= simply making the NCAA tournament, even if from a mid or low-mid major conference, or even murkier in the case of SMU and its "success"). And keep in mind that Northwestern is in a Power conference with tons a media exposure, and is located in the metro area where Chris grew up and where his Dad, with whom he remains close, still lives. So I would argue that taking them to relevance if anything creates more bias for him to stay. Until the Duke job opens up, anyway.

[Blue KevIL]

Yep, nobody is going to want to watch games at the Allstate Arena (as DePaul has learned). I've been to Northwestern games over the years (including one this year) and they definitely need an upgrade to the stadium. The floor and jumbotron are nice and new, but the benches in the majority of the stadium are terrible and very uncomfortable. I kinda like old gyms, though, but would be happy with a seat upgrade at least (the rest of the stuff is a "nice to have" but not critical from my perspective...obviously with a $110M upgrade, they're doing more than just replacing the seats).

When DePaul was good 1978-95ish, the Rosemont Horizon (now Allstate Arena) drew crowds of 17,500-plus over a dozen times.
Granted about half of those were for Notre Dame. On the average, though, DPU crowds ranged from 10,040 to 13,471 between 1980-81 & 1991-92.
The point being: If you're good, people will come.

Allstate Arena is quite far away from DePaul's campus and hard for students to reach.
NU's campus is much closer to Rosemont and may not present as much trouble for students to attend.

In the early-80's, NU actually played its home games for a season at DePaul's on-campus Alumni Hall (since torn down).
For a temporary fix, Rosemont is not so bad for the Wildcats.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Good post, but you are showing some recency bias in terms of UVA (see my comment above dating when they became relevant), as well as an arguably murky standard on relevance (= simply making the NCAA tournament, even if from a mid or low-mid major conference, or even murkier in the case of SMU and its "success"). And keep in mind that Northwestern is in a Power conference with tons a media exposure, and is located in the metro area where Chris grew up and where his Dad, with whom he remains close, still lives. So I would argue that taking them to relevance if anything creates more bias for him to stay. Until the Duke job opens up, anyway.

Are you arguing that Chris will stay until the Duke job opens up? Cus if so, I'm happy to bet my house, car, and wife on that.

Of course, we could always do a devildeac beer bet. Those are always in good taste.

[devildeac]

Are you arguing that Chris will stay until the Duke job opens up? Cus if so, I'm happy to bet my house, car, and wife on that.

Of course, we could always do a devildeac beer bet. Those are always in good taste.

Still available for mediation/arbitration/selections. ;)

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Are you arguing that Chris will stay until the Duke job opens up? Cus if so, I'm happy to bet my house, car, and wife on that.

Of course, we could always do a devildeac beer bet. Those are always in good taste.

What jobs, and under what circumstances, do you think he would take? I think he would generally steer clear of the ACC. He would likely steer clear of most of the Big Ten since he is already there (I personally wouldn't want the headaches of taking over Indiana). UCLA would have to turn into a real mess to come open, which would not be an ideal spot, though Alford has been known to move around. No way on Kentucky. Maybe Kansas but I don't think that is opening up any time soon. Arizona seems like it is all set. The Big East isn't what it used to be. I guess wealthy alums at another Power 5 school that isn't a blue blood could toss a ton of money at him, but I don't think he is exactly clipping coupons right now.

[luvdahops]

Are you arguing that Chris will stay until the Duke job opens up? Cus if so, I'm happy to bet my house, car, and wife on that.

Of course, we could always do a devildeac beer bet. Those are always in good taste.

Naah, I would never put it in such definitive, black and white terms (nor would Chris, I'm sure). That said, I don't think Chris will be in any hurry to leave NU, and certainly don't expect him to jump at the first (or first several) high profile openings that may arise over the next few years. Which seems to be what you are arguing. This situation is a lot different than say, Thad Matta or Dan Monson, in my view.

[flyingdutchdevil]

What jobs, and under what circumstances, do you think he would take? I think he would generally steer clear of the ACC. He would likely steer clear of most of the Big Ten since he is already there (I personally wouldn't want the headaches of taking over Indiana). UCLA would have to turn into a real mess to come open, which would not be an ideal spot, though Alford has been known to move around. No way on Kentucky. Maybe Kansas but I don't think that is opening up any time soon. Arizona seems like it is all set. The Big East isn't what it used to be. I guess wealthy alums at another Power 5 school that isn't a blue blood could toss a ton of money at him, but I don't think he is exactly clipping coupons right now.

That's my guess. Tony Bennett is a pretty good path: Washington State (3 years) to Virginia. Or Trent Johnson: Stanford (4 years) to LSU (4 years). Johnson is probably a mediocre comp cus it turns out Johnson couldn't really coach.

The thing is that I equate NU more to a mid-major than a Power 5 school even though they are Power 5. I'd love Collins to follow the career of Bill Self: Tulsa (3 years) to Illinois (3 years) to Kansas. Or Tubby Smith: Tulsa (4 years) to Georgia (2 years) to Kentucky (what is it with Tulsa?!?!?!). Or

[Troublemaker]

That's my guess. Tony Bennett is a pretty good path: Washington State (3 years) to Virginia. Or Trent Johnson: Stanford (4 years) to LSU (4 years). Johnson is probably a mediocre comp cus it turns out Johnson couldn't really coach.

The thing is that I equate NU more to a mid-major than a Power 5 school even though they are Power 5. I'd love Collins to follow the career of Bill Self: Tulsa (3 years) to Illinois (3 years) to Kansas. Or Tubby Smith: Tulsa (4 years) to Georgia (2 years) to Kentucky (what is it with Tulsa?!?!?!). Or

I don't think Chris would leave NU for any of those bolded spots. You might consider NU to be a mid-major and below those other programs, but I doubt Chris does.

[MChambers]

I don't think Chris would leave NU for any of those bolded spots. You might consider NU to be a mid-major and below those other programs, but I doubt Chris does.

I agree. I don't think Collins picked NU as a short term gig. If he wanted that, he could have left earlier.

Also, his program should be strong next year and the year thereafter. He's only losing two players from this year's rotation (Lumpkin, a starter and glue guy, and Taphorn, a useful sub). Plus, they should get Falzone back. Barring something unexpected, NU should be a solid top 25 team next year.

[luvdahops]

I don't think Chris would leave NU for any of those bolded spots. You might consider NU to be a mid-major and below those other programs, but I doubt Chris does.

Yeah, not to be snarky, but I doubt Chris (or the majority of knowledgeable CBB fans) would consider NU a mid-major program even today, and most certainly won't if he can get the Wildcats to be consistently competitive in the Big 10 and a regular tourney team. And that's without taking into account the unique features which make it a good fit for Chris.

[dudog84]

Are you arguing that Chris will stay until the Duke job opens up? Cus if so, I'm happy to bet my house, car, and wife on that.

Of course, we could always do a devildeac beer bet. Those are always in good taste.

Please post pix of house and car. And of wife's bank balance if she doesn't come with a stipend.

:)

[CDu]

First chink in the armor. Northwestern lost at home to Illinois. Still not cause for alarm, but certainly cause for alert. These are the games you want to win when trying to avoid sweating it out on the bubble.

Seven games left. Three are against teams better than them. Two of the four others are on the road. They probably need to be above .500 in conference to get in given how shallow the Big Ten looks this year. Little margin for error left.

[Blue KevIL]

Northwestern drops a home game 68-61 to rival Illinois.
Leading scorer, Scottie Lindsey, still out with an illness.
This makes NU's record to 18-6 and 7-4 in the Big Ten.

The 'Cats travel to #7 Wisconsin on Sunday.

[ChillinDuke]

First chink in the armor. Northwestern lost at home to Illinois. Still not cause for alarm, but certainly cause for alert. These are the games you want to win when trying to avoid sweating it out on the bubble.

Seven games left. Three are against teams better than them. Two of the four others are on the road. They probably need to be above .500 in conference to get in given how shallow the Big Ten looks this year. Little margin for error left.

Oof. Definite setback.

They're still in. And a loss at Wisco is likely/expected. But that's a loss they should have avoided.

- Chillin

[MChambers]

Oof. Definite setback.

They're still in. And a loss at Wisco is likely/expected. But that's a loss they should have avoided.

- Chillin

They really need Lindsey back. Without him, they are very unlikely to make the tournament.

[Olympic Fan]

Bad night -- Northwestern losses as home to a bad Illinois team -- yeah, they were without their top scorer, but they also melted down in the last 90 seconds ... FIVE turnovers in the final 90 seconds -- and Marquette missed a chance for a blockbuster win at No.; 16 Butler.

Northwestern is down to No. 42 in the RPI, which is just on the normal cut-off line ... Marquette is at No. 74, which is usually a realm that doesn't earn at at large bid.

[duketaylor]

A win would (almost) lock up a bid, otherwise some work to do. They lead now, but it's early. Go 'Cats!!!

[duketaylor]

Up 9 at half, go Chris!! GO Cats!!!

[Blue KevIL]

Northwestern wins 66-59 at #7 Wisconsin.
Again, without leading scorer, Scottie Lindsey.
The Wildcats held on up 8 in the final minute.

Humongous win for NU after a bad loss at home to Illinois.

[MChambers]

Northwestern wins 66-59 at #7 Wisconsin.
Again, without leading scorer, Scottie Lindsey.
The Wildcats held on up 8 in the final minute.

Humongous win for NU after a bad loss at home to Illinois.
Survived some questionable calls down the stretch, too. Very good defense by NU. Shows the value of having experienced players.

[proelitedota]

WOW. If Duke had won there any season, I would be ecstatic.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Northwestern wins 66-59 at #7 Wisconsin.
Again, without leading scorer, Scottie Lindsey.
The Wildcats held on up 8 in the final minute.

Humongous win for NU after a bad loss at home to Illinois.
And maybe those selection committee dudes knew something!

[tbyers11]

WOW. If Duke had won there any season, I would be ecstatic.

Dec 3rd, 2014: Duke beat Wisconsin 80-70 at the Kohl Center in Madison. I was there and I was ecstatic :D

Congrats to Coach Collins and Northwestern!

[CDu]

Huge win! That should all but seal a bid. As long as the Wildcats don't completely fall apart down the stretch, they are going dancing. What a great accomplishment!

[BlueDevilWildcat]

My undergrad was Northwestern. I was there for some Football success but basketball never got over the hump. Super excited with today's given after the clunker against the Illini. Go Cats!!

[jv001]

Huge win! That should all but seal a bid. As long as the Wildcats don't completely fall apart down the stretch, they are going dancing. What a great accomplishment!

Don't count Chris out as a candidate to replace Coach K when he retires. Was a good recruiter at Duke and looks like he knows how to coach a team up. GoDuke!

[duketaylor]

Bid all but locked up. Awesome. Saving complete meltdown.

Go Cats!!

[Troublemaker]

If NU can hold homecourt the rest of the way, the two road games (@Ill, @IU) are very winnable.

NU should be thinking about winning the Big 10.

BTW, it'd be interesting to know which game Coach K was watching tonight. UVA (to prep for next opponent) or NU to root on Chris?

[BD80]

If NU can hold homecourt the rest of the way, the two road games (@Ill, @IU) are very winnable.

NU should be thinking about winning the Big 10.

...

And earn the Big Whatever's "only" bid?

They say it is a "down" year for the Big Whatever, how few bids will they get?

[duke4ever19]

I just hope they don't get an 11-seed.

The 11 seeds play that weird "first round" (a.k.a the play-in game) and I'd hate for them not to be apart of one of the first two big days of the tournament (assuming they lost).

[Indoor66]

And earn the Big Whatever's "only" bid?

They say it is a "down" year for the Big Whatever, how few bids will they get?

8. The league is always overrated in both football and basketball. 😎

[flyingdutchdevil]

Great win. Now let's make some history for NU.

[jv001]

If NU can hold homecourt the rest of the way, the two road games (@Ill, @IU) are very winnable.

NU should be thinking about winning the Big 10.

BTW, it'd be interesting to know which game Coach K was watching tonight. UVA (to prep for next opponent) or NU to root on Chris?

DVR & watched both. GoDuke!

[duketaylor]

Lunardi has them as a 7 seed as of today.

[elvis14]

I'm really happy for Coach Collins. It's great to see him has some success and I hope it continues.

[BigWayne]

If NU can hold homecourt the rest of the way, the two road games (@Ill, @IU) are very winnable.

NU should be thinking about winning the Big 10.


They are in very good position to finish in the top four in the B10 and get the double bye in the conference bracket.

[Blue KevIL]

They are in very good position to finish in the top four in the B10 and get the double bye in the conference bracket.

To get that double-bye, NU needs to avoid ties with Michigan State (0-1) & Minnesota (0-1).

With six games to go, the Cats need 3 wins to get to 11-7 and that would likely keep them ahead of the Spartans & Gophers:

02/15 vs Maryland
02/18 vs Rutgers
02/21 at Illinois
02/25 at Indiana
03/01 vs Michigan
03/05 vs Purdue


There's not a lot of room for error in those six games.

[MChambers]

Lindsey, NU's top scorer, may return this weekend against Rutgers, or at least that's what I hear from a relative with connections to NU athletics. Too bad he'll miss playing Maryland, but it will be a big boost to have him back.

[MChambers]

Nice article about Collins and NU, except that it says that Collins was an assistant at Duke for three years. Correct answer: 13!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/colleges/chris-collins-has-northwestern-on-the-rise--and-eyeing-a-big-prize/2017/02/14/2301416c-f2e9-11e6-a9b0-ecee7ce475fc_story.html?hpid=hp_regional-hp-cards_rhp-card-sports%3Ahomepage%2Fcard&utm_term=.3d355c59af57

[Indoor66]

Who's counting? It is the WaPo and accuracy is second to speed and sensationalism.😈😎

[MChambers]

Who's counting? It is the WaPo and accuracy is second to speed and sensationalism.😈😎

No kidding, especially when it comes to Duke basketball. Luckily, the WaPo is a lot less important to my news consumption than it was when I moved here in 1984!

[sagegrouse]

Nice article about Collins and NU, except that it says that Collins was an assistant at Duke for three years. Correct answer: 13!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/colleges/chris-collins-has-northwestern-on-the-rise--and-eyeing-a-big-prize/2017/02/14/2301416c-f2e9-11e6-a9b0-ecee7ce475fc_story.html?hpid=hp_regional-hp-cards_rhp-card-sports%3Ahomepage%2Fcard&utm_term=.3d355c59af57

I expect Mr. Roman Stubbs has already heard from Mr. Feinstein.

[MChambers]

I expect Mr. Roman Stubbs has already heard from Mr. Feinstein.

I already emailed Mr. Stubbs pointing out the error and dealing some snark about the Post's coverage of Duke basketball. To his credit, he replied politely (about the error and not my snark). I haven't checked to see if the error has been corrected.

[Channing]

I think we all know that the committee is going to do whatever they can to pair Duke and NU together for an early matchup ... right?

[Kfanarmy]

Who's counting? It is the WaPo and accuracy is second to speed and sensationalism.����

Not just them...national crisis, that simply includes sports.

[Tom B.]

I think we all know that the committee is going to do whatever they can to pair Duke and NU together for an early matchup ... right?

The matchup I'm looking for the Committee to orchestrate is Duke vs. Maryland, possibly as a 4/5 matchup in the second round.

[BandAlum83]

The matchup I'm looking for the Committee to orchestrate is Duke vs. Maryland, possibly as a 4/5 matchup in the second round.

We will be a minimum 2 seed, so it won't happen that way.

[MChambers]

We will be a minimum 2 seed, so it won't happen that way.

Maryland is 38 in KenPom, so maybe they'll be much lower than a 5.

[Olympic Fan]

Obviously, we are following Northwestern's quest because of Chris ... but there are actually five schools -- sometimes labeled "The Forgotten Five" -- that have been eligible for the NCAA Tournament every year since 1939 without ever earning a bid.

Northwestern is clearly on track to end its futility this season. I thought I'd look at the other four:

William & Mary is probably the best program to never get a bid. W&M is not going to get an at large bid this year (14-11, 8-6 in the CAA), but they have at least an outside chance of winning the CAA title and an automatic bid, although UNC Wilmington is clearly the best team in the league. The Tribe has come close in recent years, losing in the CAA Tournament finals twice in the last three seasons.

The other three NCAA-less teams are all in shambles:

Army is 9-17 and 3-11 in the Patriot League

The Citadel is 9-18 and 2-12 in the Southern Conference

St. Francis College of Brooklyn is 4-23 and 2-12 in the Northeast Conference (not to be confused with St. Francis of Pa., which did play in the NCAA in 1991).

As I said, William and Mary has a chance to win their conference tournament and earn a bid, even if it's a long shot. It would be a miracle if any of the other three did it.

BTW: I just read the Army actually got an NCAA bid in the 1960s, but that Bobby Knight turned it down to play in the NIT in Madison Square Garden.

I also learned that there are 13 other Division 1 teams that have never gotten an NCAA bid, although they all became Division I after 1960.

Buffalo was one of those schools -- but they finally made the tournament in 2015 ... thanks to head coach Bobby Hurley.

And one other interesting factoid. While this will be the first NCAA appearance for Northwestern's team, Northwestern does have a place in NCAA history -- the first NCAA Tournament in 1939 was played at Patten Gym (the forerunner of Welsh-Ryan Arena) on the school's Evanstan campus.

[MChambers]

NU getting killed by Murrland midway through the second half. NU's point guard got in early foul trouble, and NU couldn't buy a basket for most of the first half. Murrland up by 17 under 8.

[DukieInBrasil]

bummer, that they couldn't hold home court vs. the Twerps. Still looking good for an NCAA bid though.

[CDu]

bummer, that they couldn't hold home court vs. the Twerps. Still looking good for an NCAA bid though.

Yeah the Wisconsin win all but seals it. They would probably need to lose out (or darn close to it) to miss the tourney. Just an incredible accomplishment for Collins if/when it happens.

[Wander]

Yeah the Wisconsin win all but seals it. They would probably need to lose out (or darn close to it) to miss the tourney. Just an incredible accomplishment for Collins if/when it happens.

I think if they go 1-4 in the remaining 5 games, they'd have a good chance to miss it. Rutgers at home is easy, but the other 4 are all loseable. Of course, the chances of actually losing all four are low. I'd say they have a 90% chance of making the tournament - looking good, but not a lock.

[ChillinDuke]

I think if they go 1-4 in the remaining 5 games, they'd have a good chance to miss it. Rutgers at home is easy, but the other 4 are all loseable. Of course, the chances of actually losing all four are low. I'd say they have a 90% chance of making the tournament - looking good, but not a lock.

I'd go a step further and say if they lose to Rutgers, they may be out.

Heck, if they lose to Rutgers they should probably just close down the program. That would be a horrific loss.

- Chillin

[BD80]

I'd go a step further and say if they lose to Rutgers, they may be out.

Heck, if they lose to Rutgers they should probably just close down the program. That would be a horrific loss.

- Chillin

Worse than our loss to State at home is looking right now?

[brevity]

Worse than our loss to State at home is looking right now?

A black eye on your face doesn't look as bad if almost everyone else in the room has a shiner.

Worst Loss of the AP Top 25, According to Me

Gonzaga: no losses
Villanova: at Marquette (no offense intended, their only other loss is at ranked Butler)
Kansas: Iowa State at home
Baylor: Kansas State at home
Arizona: at Oregon, but by 27
UCLA: at USC
Oregon: at Colorado
Louisville: Virginia at home (5 losses, none embarrassing)
West Virginia: Oklahoma at home
North Carolina: at Georgia Tech (honorable mentions: at Miami, at Indiana)
Wisconsin: getting left out of the NCAA Early Top 16 bracket (or Northwestern at home)
Duke: NC State at home
Kentucky: at Tennessee
Virginia: at Pittsburgh
Florida: Vanderbilt at home
Purdue: at Nebraska
Florida State: vs. Temple in Brooklyn (or at Georgia Tech, not sure)
Cincinnati: vs. Rhode Island in Connecticut
SMU: at Boise State, I guess
Creighton: at Georgetown
South Carolina: vs. Seton Hall in NYC
St. Mary's: UT-Arlington at home
Maryland: Nebraska at home
Butler: at Indiana State
Notre Dame: at Georgia Tech

Observations:

1. Georgia Tech is pretty good at home.
2. It's hard to compare and quantify embarrassments neutrally, but if I could, I see a few teams whose worst days look better than Duke's, and others that laid bigger eggs. Duke's loss feels greater because it's our point of reference.
3. After doing this exercise for a while, none of these losses looked that bad. Except for Butler at Indiana State, because Indiana State is 10-17 and 4-11 in the Horizon.
4. I never pointed this out at the time, but in both the NC State home loss and the Wake road win 5 days later, Duke was behind 84-82 with the ball. The first time Tatum turns the ball over. The second time Kennard hits a 3. You might conclude that the NC State game wasn't a huge aberration, and that Duke learned from the loss immediately.

[Wander]

A black eye on your face doesn't look as bad if almost everyone else in the room has a shiner.


I don't know what point you're trying to make. That teams don't go undefeated? The vast majority of the losses you listed are easily better than losing to NC State at home. Many of the losses you listed don't even qualify as bad losses.

I'm not trying to give Duke a hard time; we've clearly improved and are doing very well. But the NC State loss was a horrible loss for our seeding resume.

[luburch]

Observations:
3. After doing this exercise for a while, none of these losses looked that bad. Except for Butler at Indiana State, because Indiana State is 10-17 and 4-11 in the Horizon.


I think it's quite impressive that Indiana State notched 4 wins in the Horizon when they belong to the Missouri Valley Conference :)

[brevity]

I think it's quite impressive that Indiana State notched 4 wins in the Horizon when they belong to the Missouri Valley Conference :)

Well, in that case, Butler's loss doesn't look so bad. (Or, whoops.)


I don't know what point you're trying to make. That teams don't go undefeated? The vast majority of the losses you listed are easily better than losing to NC State at home. Many of the losses you listed don't even qualify as bad losses.

I'm not trying to give Duke a hard time; we've clearly improved and are doing very well. But the NC State loss was a horrible loss for our seeding resume.

I don't do the back and forth on Internet message boards unless I make an error -- see above reply to luburch -- or if I need to clarify a point I made too vaguely. If I make a post worthy of my standards, I shouldn't have to write anything more. Here I posted an exercise, prefaced it as subjective, and made some observations after. I guess I was vague in not saying that I didn't consult RPI or KenPom numbers, looking only at schedules and records and locations.

Otherwise, my post stands.

[wilson]

Tom Izzo was just on the Worldwide Leader with Andy Katz, who asked him to comment on Northwestern's success this season. Izzo responded with a high degree of confidence in a NW tourney bid, and went on to say some very complimentary things about Chris Collins and the program he has built, as well as Izzo's pride and happiness for Collins and Northwestern both personally and on behalf of the conference. It was really nice to hear.

[MCFinARL]

Tom Izzo was just on the Worldwide Leader with Andy Katz, who asked him to comment on Northwestern's success this season. Izzo responded with a high degree of confidence in a NW tourney bid, and went on to say some very complimentary things about Chris Collins and the program he has built, as well as Izzo's pride and happiness for Collins and Northwestern both personally and on behalf of the conference. It was really nice to hear.

Confirming my suspicion that Tom Izzo is a fundamentally decent human being.

[sagegrouse]

Tom Izzo was just on the Worldwide Leader with Andy Katz, who asked him to comment on Northwestern's success this season. Izzo responded with a high degree of confidence in a NW tourney bid, and went on to say some very complimentary things about Chris Collins and the program he has built, as well as Izzo's pride and happiness for Collins and Northwestern both personally and on behalf of the conference. It was really nice to hear.


Confirming my suspicion that Tom Izzo is a fundamentally decent human being.

Classy, but also more money for Michigan State with another team in the Tournament.

[BD80]

Classy, but also more money for Michigan State with another team in the Tournament.

He wouldn't be so complimentary of Ohio State or UM.

[Indoor66]

Confirming my suspicion that Tom Izzo is a fundamentally decent human being.

Shhhhh. Don't let it out.

[elvis14]

Confirming my suspicion that Tom Izzo is a fundamentally decent human being.

I put Tom Izzo and Tony Bennett together. They seem like great guys and their teams are quite successful. I often really like what they have to say when interviewed or doing post game pressers. But I hate watching their teams slug their way through a basketball game.

[devildeac]

I put Tom Izzo and Tony Bennett together. They seem like great guys and their teams are quite successful. I often really like what they have to say when interviewed or doing post game pressers. But I hate watching their teams slug their way through a basketball game.

But it's so nice when they slug it out with each other on the court. ;):rolleyes:

[brevity]

I put Tom Izzo and Tony Bennett together.

"So do we." - NCAA Selection Committee (in 2014, 2015, and 2016)

[ChillinDuke]

I don't know what point you're trying to make. That teams don't go undefeated? The vast majority of the losses you listed are easily better than losing to NC State at home. Many of the losses you listed don't even qualify as bad losses.

I'm not trying to give Duke a hard time; we've clearly improved and are doing very well. But the NC State loss was a horrible loss for our seeding resume.

I think Brevity's point was that almost everyone has a blemish on their resume at this point.

I think the counter point to your bolded point above is that Duke now has multiple wins that are better than most other teams' best wins. @ND, vUNC, nUF (n = neutral), @UVA is a really strong core of wins. There's no denying that. I'd put those up against any team's best 4 wins.

How about Gonzaga, for example? nUF (smaller margin), nISU (currently unranked), nZona, @St Marys.
Villanova? @Purdue, @Creighton, vUVA, and then probably nNotre Dame.
Kansas? @UK, vBaylor, vWVU (in overtime), and nDuke.

Those are three of Lunardi's current #1 seeds (I didn't exclude Baylor on purpose, just thought those three were enough to get the point across). And we stack up really well in the "best wins" consideration. Where we don't stack up is simply in the loss column. And four of our five losses are in conference (3 of which were on the road), and frankly I think those will be discounted as a cost of doing business in the ACC.

Listen, I agree the NC State loss was definitely a bad one. But I don't think it's as damning as your opinion sounds. If Duke wins out, I guarantee that we'd get a 1 seed. And if Duke wins the ACC Reg Season and ACC Tourney (but drops one somewhere else), I'd also expect us to be a 1 seed. The point is not so much that NC State was an OK loss (it wasn't) as much as you can drop a game like that and still be OK seeding wise. After all, it was a conference game and a competitive one at that where we had a chance to win or tie on the last play.

Sorry, I just realized I posted all of this in the NW thread. My bad. NW is a good team! (did that shameless plug keep me on topic?)

- Chillin

[Olympic Fan]

Duke's loss to NC State illustrates the problem with sitting there on Selection Sunday and looking at resumes.

Teams change over the course of the season and often timing matters. For instance, a team that beat Duke in early January (without Allen or without Jefferson) is not beating the Duke team that we see today (and hope to see on Selection Sunday).

Duke's loss to NC State looks worse and worse as the Pack spiral out of control. The Pack looks like its going to lose its last 11 games to finish 14-18. It will have an RPI well over 100.

That's a bad loss.

But the Wolfpack team that Duke lost to was not that bad on Jan. 23. That win made the Pack 14-7 with an RPI of near 50. State had recently blown out an NCAA-bound Virginia Tech team and beaten a Pitt team that is going to finish close to the top 50 in the RPI.

They weren't a great team, but they weren't a terrible team ... at the time.

Obviously, what's happened to State since changes the perception. The next time out, they lost at Louisville. No big deal -- a lot of teams lose at Louisville, but they bounced back and had Syracuse beat until they let John Gillon go off (a performance he hasn't matched since. Gillon hit a game-tying 3 at the buzzer, the Cuse dominated the overtime and State was on a two-game losing streak. It went to three straight when Miami came to Raleigh and State let a game it led most of the way get away.

That appears to have been the breaking point. Some teams -- Clemson and Pitt come to mind -- have withstood disappointment and heartbreak this season and have kept fighting. State appeared to quit after the Miami game. Their last three games have all been blowout losses. It's hard to see them getting it back ... maybe Tuesday, Mar. 7 when they played the 10 or 11 seed in a first round ACC Tournament game.

My point is, the longer State's slide continues, the worse it makes Duke's loss to the Pack look. In reality, it wasn't a good loss at the time ... but it was not as bad as it's going to look on Selection Sunday.

The committee is supposed to take things like that into account. Frankly, I doubt most committee members have the basketball knowledge to understand the difference between the State team that they will look at on Mar. 12 and the one that beat Duke back in January.

[MChambers]

NU struggling again. Losing by 6 to Rutgers under 9 to go.

[CDu]

NU struggling again. Losing by 6 to Rutgers under 9 to go.

Oy. That would be bad. Would put the heat back on them. Gotta win at home against Rutgers.

[MChambers]

McIntosh hit a 3 with a minute to go. NU up by 2

[MChambers]

NU up 3 with 13 seconds left. Watching with my daughter, a NU junior!

[MChambers]

NU up 2, with the ball, 3.2 seconds left. Doug Collins has turned purple, in the stands.

[Blue KevIL]

NU comes back to defeat Rutgers 69-65 after losing 3 of 4.
The win puts NU at 9-5 in Big Ten with a remaining schedule of two road games at Illinois & at Indiana and two home games against Michigan & Purdue.
The 'Cats are still solidly in the hunt for a coveted 4-Seed in the Conference Tourney.

[MChambers]

NU holds on to win by 4. Doug Collins looks wiped out. Chris looks pretty cool and collected.

[brevity]

Doug Collins has turned purple, in the stands.

A true Northwestern fan. Who needs face paint?

[Blue KevIL]

A couple of notes on the Wildcat Win:

NU reaches 20 wins for only the fourth time in school history (09-10, 10-11 & 15-16).
Each other time, the Cats maxed-out with 20 wins. So this win equals the school record.

By comparison, Duke currently has 21 consecutive 20-win seasons and 52 seasons of 20 wins overall.

Today's win is NU's 9th conference win -- the most since 1932-33 when they had a Big Ten record of 10-2.
The Cats have had three other 9-conference-win seasons (1915-16, 1927-28 & 1931-32) and their high was a record of 11-1 in 1930-31.
So, NU has a chance to get to 11 conference wins with 4 games remaining.

Any way you cut it, this season has been one where NU has accomplished things that they have not done in decades.

[ChillinDuke]

And you all said the Rutgers game was a joke.

- Chillin

[Blue KevIL]

"Chicago's Big Ten Team" TM got pounded by Illinois' Big Ten Team by a score of 66-50.

The Illini sweep the season series 2-0.
Northwestern falls to 20-8 / 9-6.
NU has a road game at Indiana this weekend.

[Blue KevIL]

Northwestern loses a heartbreaker at Indiana 63-62.
IU took the lead on a three-point-play with 2.6 seconds left.
The Hoosiers closed out the Game with an 8-0 run after closing out the 1st Half with a 22-0 run.

Northwestern drops to 20-9 / 9-7.
The Wildcats have home games with Michigan on Wednesday & Purdue on Sunday.
NU is on the outside looking in for a coveted double-bye #4 seed in the Big Ten Tourney.

[CDu]

Gonna be sweating now. Very likely to be 9-9 in a shaky conference. The win over Wisvonsin is looking massive now as it may be the thing that saves their bid.

[vick]

Gonna be sweating now. Very likely to be 9-9 in a shaky conference. The win over Wisvonsin is looking massive now as it may be the thing that saves their bid.

Agreed they're going to be sweating, but I'd say the odds favor one more win--they might even be favored against Michigan at home (kenpom suggests 1 point favorites). Still, not the situation you want to be in.

[Olympic Fan]

Very scary first half tonight -- Northwestern seemed to dominate Michigan, but only ended up leading by 2 at halftime.

Would be a tough one for the 'Cats to lose.

[MChambers]

Under 7 minutes.

[MChambers]

Refs blow a crucial call, on the missed end of a one and one. Instead of NU getting the rebound, ruled an alternate possession, ball to Michigan.

[duke4ever19]

UM violation for entering the restricted area from the sidelines on a Michigan foul shot. I have never seen that before.

[MChambers]

NU apparently has the ball with 1.7 seconds to go.

Refs lost control of this one a while ago. The announcers are poor, especially Bardo, who is a nice guy, but really doesn't seem to know the rules.

And NU scores on a length of the floor pass. Pardon! I beg your pardon!

[curtis325]

Great finish!

[duke4ever19]

WOW!!!! Buzzer beater!

Go Northwestern! Punch that ticket!

[MChambers]

Great finish.

[Olympic Fan]

Great finish and I agree, this is the one that probably punches their ticket.

They might have been okay anyway, but a loss would have meant six losses in eight games ... with Big Ten leader Purdue coming to Evanston Sunday.

Some weird free throw situations in this one.

Did you see the play with about six minutes left, tie score and Michigan on the line for a 1+1?

The guy misses the first shot, but nobody moves ... a Northwestern guy finally grabs the ball and hands it to the ref.

When the refs finally straighten it out, the ball goes to Michigan on the arrow ... they get two points they otherwise don't get.

It doesn't matter in the long run as a great play to finish -- a 90-foot in-bounds pass to their big man, who catches it in traffic and calmly banks in the game-winner.

[Olympic Fan]

Should mention that Wojo got a big win Wednesday night, beating Xavier for his 18th win

Don't think they are in the field at the moment, but this win at least puts them in the conversation.

[JasonEvans]

Will this be the year the Wildcats accomplish the unthinkable... can they finally make the NCAA tournament? As you probably know, they are the only power-5 conference team to never make the NCAA tourney.

Chris Collins has been a miracle worker thus far in his 3 seasons. He took the worst program in all of the major conferences and has made them relevant. 14-19 in his first year, 15-17 in his second, and then 20-12 last year. Want to know the last time Northwestern finished above .500 in the Big Ten?

1968

They went 8-6 in the conference that year. The last time Northwestern won more than 8 games in the Big Ten was 1933.

I just wanted to remind everyone of where this thread began back in November. The last time NW finished above .500 in the Big Ten was 1968... the last time they won more than 8 games in the Big Ten was 1933.

And now, this...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7pEAJIcQGsE

Congrats, Chris. You have done what no one has ever done. You are taking perhaps the worst power-5 team in history to the Dance. Tip of the cap, sir!

-Jason "Ummm, I'd say Collins looked kinda excited (https://twitter.com/NUMensBball/status/837163123584819200) after the game" Evans

[brlftz]

Should mention that Wojo got a big win Wednesday night, beating Xavier for his 18th win

Don't think they are in the field at the moment, but this win at least puts them in the conversation.

I agree. Do you have any sense of how much more they need to do? Their RPI hurts, so I'd imagine they need a deep run in their conference tournament. Man though, I would LOVE to see Wojo AND Collins make it.

[tbyers11]

I agree. Do you have any sense of how much more they need to do? Their RPI hurts, so I'd imagine they need a deep run in their conference tournament. Man though, I would LOVE to see Wojo AND Collins make it.

Bracket Matrix had Marquette as basically the fifth to last team in the field (as an 11 seed) before they beat Xavier on the road last night.

I don't think they are definitely in but if they beat Creighton at home (2 pt favs according to Ken Pom) this weekend I think they are in. If they beat Creighton and win their first Big East tourney game I thin they are definitely in.