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Reilly
11-12-2016, 07:53 AM
ACC bowls covered at page 20 of: http://raycomsports.com/sports_labs_docs/m-footbl/2016accfbguide.pdf

CU 9-0 ... Pitt, @WFU, SoCar

L'ville 8-1 ... WFU, @UH, Ky

VT 7-2 ... GT, @ND, UVa

UNC 7-3 ... Citadel, NCSU
FSU 7-3 ... @Syr, UF

WFU 6-3 ... @L'ville, CU, BC

--------------------------------------------------

Mia 5-4 ... @UVa, @NCSU, Duke
Pitt 5-4 ... @CU, Duke, Syr
GT 5-4 ... @VT, UVa, @UGA

NCSU 4-5 ... @Syr, Mia, @UNC
Syr 4-5 ... NCSU, FSU, @Pitt

BC 4-6 ... UConn, @WFU
Duke 4-6 ... @Pitt, @Mia

ND 3-6 ... Army, VT, @USC

------------------------------------------------------

UVa 2-7 ... Mia, @GT, @VT

Reilly
11-12-2016, 08:08 AM
As of now, espn's matchup predictor gives Duke a 26.5% chance of beating Pitt and a 15.6% chance of beating Miami, so a 4.1% shot to end 6-6.

budwom
11-12-2016, 09:26 AM
As of now, espn's matchup predictor gives Duke a 26.5% chance of beating Pitt and a 15.6% chance of beating Miami, so a 4.1% shot to end 6-6.

Pitt could be a shootout...they'll score plenty against us, but if we can continue our ball control offense, we have a solid chance...and five wins might be enough...

OldPhiKap
11-12-2016, 09:28 AM
As of now, espn's matchup predictor gives Duke a 26.5% chance of beating Pitt and a 15.6% chance of beating Miami, so a 4.1% shot to end 6-6.

I put our odds at 50-50. We'll either make it or we won't.

LGD!!!!!

Sixthman
11-12-2016, 09:32 AM
As of now, espn's matchup predictor gives Duke a 26.5% chance of beating Pitt and a 15.6% chance of beating Miami, so a 4.1% shot to end 6-6.

Has anyone seen an assessment of the likelihood of there being enough six win teams to fill all the bowl slots?

OldPhiKap
11-12-2016, 09:34 AM
Has anyone seen an assessment of the likelihood of there being enough six win teams to fill all the bowl slots?

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/10/30/13469656/bowl-projections-2016-college-football-recap-playoff

This list of projections is from before our game Thursday, but has Boston College at 5-7 projected to a bowl because of APR scores. I think we are in the top five nationally in APR, so if we go 5-7 there is a chance because I assume we would be the top of that 5-7 list.

APR score rule discussion: http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/4/20/11471434/ncaa-apr-scores-rankings-football-2016-bowls#undefined

Reilly
11-12-2016, 09:48 AM
The Wikipedia entry on the 2016-17 bowls keeps a running list of the bowl eligible.

SCMatt33
11-12-2016, 10:16 AM
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/10/30/13469656/bowl-projections-2016-college-football-recap-playoff

This list of projections is from before our game Thursday, but has Boston College at 5-7 projected to a bowl because of APR scores. I think we are in the top five nationally in APR, so if we go 5-7 there is a chance because I assume we would be the top of that 5-7 list.

APR score rule discussion: http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/4/20/11471434/ncaa-apr-scores-rankings-football-2016-bowls#undefined

Duke is in fact #1 in APR. If we finish 5-7 and there are 79 or fewer teams with 6 wins, Duke will have the first option of playing a bowl game

killerleft
11-12-2016, 11:11 AM
As of now, espn's matchup predictor gives Duke a 26.5% chance of beating Pitt and a 15.6% chance of beating Miami, so a 4.1% shot to end 6-6.

What are the real odds being given on such a bet? I might find a way to put a little money on that. Given our performances of late, I'd put us at even money for the Pitt game, and even better against Miami should we beat the Panthers.

We're usually undervalued. Mainly because people can't wrap their heads around the fact that Coach Cutcliffe's bestest quality is getting the very most out of what he has to work with.

Couple this with the experience that our previously less-used players have now, these last couple games could be very interesting. Yeah, I'm a glass-half-full kind of guy.:)

Go Duke!

Troublemaker
11-12-2016, 11:35 AM
As of now, espn's matchup predictor gives Duke a 26.5% chance of beating Pitt and a 15.6% chance of beating Miami, so a 4.1% shot to end 6-6.

After the Louisville game, I wrote that if Duke's offense improved, our best chances to pull off upsets would be against UNC and Pitt. Well, our offense DID improve and we're 1-for-1 in bagging my targets. Let's bag #2 next week (with extra prep time) at Pitt to become APR-bowl-eligible.

Troublemaker
11-12-2016, 11:38 AM
What are the real odds being given on such a bet? I might find a way to put a little money on that. Given our performances of late, I'd put us at even money for the Pitt game, and even better against Miami should we beat the Panthers.

The lines on the Pitt game won't come out until Sunday. I think Duke will be about a 3-to-1 underdog.

Reilly
11-12-2016, 11:48 AM
What are the real odds being given on such a bet? I might find a way to put a little money on that. Given our performances of late, I'd put us at even money for the Pitt game, and even better against Miami should we beat the Panthers. ...

I don't know what goes into the espn predictor -- just happened to see it today when looking up schedules on my phone.

Like you, I was surprised at the low 26% chance against Pitt -- I view it as more even. Per the SRS, Pitt is 3 points better than us on a neutral field: http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2016-ratings.html
So, maybe 6 points better given Pitt at home. How often do 6-point underdogs win? Maybe that is only 26% of the time.

Agree that if we beat Pitt, our "predictor" number against Miami should go up.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-12-2016, 12:53 PM
Pitt could be a shootout...they'll score plenty against us, but if we can continue our ball control offense, we have a solid chance...and five wins might be enough...

I dunno man, we have held some explosive offenses well below their average. I hope we aren't in a shootout, because that is a lot of pressure on our offense.

Regardless, I have been so impressed by how our team has come out against bigger, faster teams. In Cut I Trust.

budwom
11-12-2016, 01:28 PM
I think our offense has improved so much in the past few weeks (driven by the running of Jones, the robust use of our tight ends, and the general improvement of our OL) that
proper odds are not being calculated about our chances vs Pitt. We should be underdogs, but not prohibitive ones.

My point about Pitt scoring is that Peterman(?) is a really good QB who's had good success against us. (Why unc stopped throwing the ball so much in
favor of a running game which wasn't nearly as potent, is beyond me.) But I think if we can keep our methodical offense going as we have the past few
weeks, we can limit their possessions.

fuse
11-12-2016, 08:57 PM
Playing devil's advocate (ba da bum ching!), do we really want to go to a bowl at 5-7?

The APR rule and being number one is admirable.

Going to a bowl is valuable experience.
Potentially being cannon fodder is not.

Too many bowls, too few good teams with winning records.

Reilly
11-12-2016, 09:21 PM
Replacing a wannabe 6-6 team in a middling bowl for a Cut-prepared Duke team does not equal being cannon fodder.

OldPhiKap
11-12-2016, 09:24 PM
Playing devil's advocate (ba da bum ching!), do we really want to go to a bowl at 5-7?

The APR rule and being number one is admirable.

Going to a bowl is valuable experience.
Potentially being cannon fodder is not.

Too many bowls, too few good teams with winning records.

I hear ya. But doubt we would be cannon fodder. 5-7, if it gets us in, likely gets us in the bowl in a Detroit (perhaps against Maryland).

We've been underdogs in all of our bowls, sometimes significant ones. Cut has had us ready.

I'd rather have a shot of playing, and the extra practice time, than not.

But again -- a 5-7 team in any bowl is not ideal.

Tripping William
11-12-2016, 09:24 PM
Playing devil's advocate (ba da bum ching!), do we really want to go to a bowl at 5-7?

The APR rule and being number one is admirable.

Going to a bowl is valuable experience.
Potentially being cannon fodder is not.

Too many bowls, too few good teams with winning records.

For an extra month of practice, as a lead-up to next year? I'll take it.

(Edit: IOW, what OPK said faster than me.)

Troublemaker
11-12-2016, 09:32 PM
For an extra month of practice, as a lead-up to next year? I'll take it.

(Edit: IOW, what OPK said faster than me.)

Yep, think of it as getting a head start on 2017. Of course you do it.

Incidentally, I still like Duke having a good chance to upset Pitt. Clemson getting beaten by Pitt today changes nothing.

orrnot
11-12-2016, 09:33 PM
Playing devil's advocate (ba da bum ching!), do we really want to go to a bowl at 5-7?

The APR rule and being number one is admirable.

Going to a bowl is valuable experience.
Potentially being cannon fodder is not.

Too many bowls, too few good teams with winning records.

Going to a bowl is about the extra practices and the game itself. It also allows us to tell recruits we've been to five straight bowls, and it might allow us to say we've won two straight. The bowl that gets a 5 and 7 us won't be getting a "cannon" as our opponent, so we shouldn't cringe at the prospect of being fodder. Mostly, it's more football for players who get precious few chances to compete, for a few quick years in their young lives. If they want to play they should play.

Consider it this way. What if the extra experience gained nets us a 6th win next Fall?
[Full disclosure--I'm expecting more than 6 wins next Fall]

Has one of Cutcliffe's Duke teams embarrassed us in a bowl yet?

Bob Green
11-12-2016, 09:51 PM
Potentially being cannon fodder is not.

Last season three 5-7 teams went to a bowl game, all three won their bowl game.

OldPhiKap
11-12-2016, 10:07 PM
Let's focus on Pitt, and win that.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-12-2016, 11:14 PM
Last season three 5-7 teams went to a bowl game, all three won their bowl game.

Yes, and I am not conceding any of the next 2 or 3 games yet. Our team is playing very well.

Reilly
11-13-2016, 09:43 AM
CU 9-1 ... @WFU, SoCar
L'ville 9-1 ... @UH, Ky

VT 7-3 ... @ND, UVa
UNC 7-3 ... Citadel, NCSU
FSU 7-3 ... @Syr, UF

Pitt 6-4 ... Duke, Syr
Mia 6-4 ... @NCSU, Duke
GT 6-4 ... UVa, @UGA
WFU 6-4 ... CU, BC

--------------------------------------------------

NCSU 5-5 ... Mia, @UNC

Syr 4-6 ... FSU, @Pitt
BC 4-6 ... UConn, @WFU
Duke 4-6 ... @Pitt, @Mia
ND 4-6 ... VT, @USC

------------------------------------------------------

UVa 2-8 ... @GT, @VT

jimsumner
11-13-2016, 10:58 AM
CU 9-1 ... @WFU, SoCar
L'ville 9-1 ... @UH, Ky

VT 7-3 ... @ND, UVa
UNC 7-3 ... Citadel, NCSU
FSU 7-3 ... @Syr, UF

Pitt 6-4 ... Duke, Syr
Mia 6-4 ... @NCSU, Duke
GT 6-4 ... UVa, @UGA
WFU 6-4 ... CU, BC

--------------------------------------------------

NCSU 5-5 ... Mia, @UNC

Syr 4-6 ... FSU, @Pitt
BC 4-6 ... UConn, @WFU
Duke 4-6 ... @Pitt, @Mia
ND 4-6 ... VT, @USC

------------------------------------------------------

UVa 2-8 ... @GT, @VT

I'd sure like a do-over on that UVa game.

Bob Green
11-13-2016, 12:30 PM
On 9/28/1974, Purdue beat #1 Notre Dame 31-20. The following week (10/5/1974), Duke beat Purdue 16-14. I was in Wallace Wade Stadium cheering like crazy.

We can beat Pitt!

devildeac
11-13-2016, 01:39 PM
I'd sure like a do-over on that UVa game.

So would a lot of us, Jim. :(

OldPhiKap
11-13-2016, 01:51 PM
I'd sure like a do-over on that UVa game.


So would a lot of us, Jim. :(

We get one. It's against Pitt. TCB, baby.

CameronBlue
11-13-2016, 01:55 PM
Here's a diagram I stumbled across on twitspeak:

https://twitter.com/FF_Hokie/status/797625449765634049/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

fisheyes
11-13-2016, 02:13 PM
Here's a diagram I stumbled across on twitspeak:

https://twitter.com/FF_Hokie/status/797625449765634049/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

This is really cool!
And, as long as DUKE>UNcheaters, the world is right.

OldPhiKap
11-13-2016, 05:48 PM
Not getting ahead of myself, just asking for my general information -- is it a pain to stay in Windsor and cross the tunnel to Detroit? Caesars wants me to stay there. Any big draw to Detroit at Christmas to hook the family?

In the Annapolis, how long of a drive from D.C.?

Again, not counting chickens. Just finding out where they are and all.

My guess is, those are the two most likely. Shreveport and warm bowls probably out of reach, and we've done Belk/Sun/Pinstripe recently even if we got that high (which I doubt).

Am I missing any?

Indoor66
11-13-2016, 05:57 PM
Not getting ahead of myself, just asking for my general information -- is it a pain to stay in Windsor and cross the tunnel to Detroit? Caesars wants me to stay there. Any big draw to Detroit at Christmas to hook the family?

In the Annapolis, how long of a drive from D.C.?

Again, not counting chickens. Just finding out where they are and all.

My guess is, those are the two most likely. Shreveport and warm bowls probably out of reach, and we've done Belk/Sun/Pinstripe recently even if we got that high (which I doubt).

Am I missing any?

You could catch unCheat at the Toilet Bowl....😁😎

stals
11-13-2016, 06:04 PM
Turnovers killed us in that game, Jim. Daniel Jones has improved a lot in that part of his game/



CU 9-1 ... @WFU, SoCar
L'ville 9-1 ... @UH, Ky

VT 7-3 ... @ND, UVa
UNC 7-3 ... Citadel, NCSU
FSU 7-3 ... @Syr, UF

Pitt 6-4 ... Duke, Syr
Mia 6-4 ... @NCSU, Duke
GT 6-4 ... UVa, @UGA
WFU 6-4 ... CU, BC

--------------------------------------------------

NCSU 5-5 ... Mia, @UNC

Syr 4-6 ... FSU, @Pitt
BC 4-6 ... UConn, @WFU
Duke 4-6 ... @Pitt, @Mia
ND 4-6 ... VT, @USC

------------------------------------------------------

UVa 2-8 ... @GT, @VT

Bob Green
11-13-2016, 06:10 PM
In the Annapolis, how long of a drive from D.C.?



Forty-five minutes via U.S. 50E. I was in Annapolis last May for my nephew's graduation from the Naval Academy.

Reilly
11-13-2016, 06:33 PM
... Am I missing any?

My guess -- yes. Right now, 14 of the 15 ACC+ND schools could end up with 6+ victories. Interesting note -- of all of the 4-6 teams that need to win out to reach 6 wins, none plays the other down the stretch here (thanks, expansion, and the end of all-playing-all) so all could, in theory, hit 6 wins.

In other words, there may be more ACC bowl-eligible teams than committed ACC bowl slots, so the lesser teams could end up elsewhere. And if we're a 5-7 fill-in somewhere, who knows where that somewhere will be.

Sure, you could daytrip it over to the Annapolis from DC ... or from Baltimore (better crabs, better sports fans, less pretentious populace). Or, perhaps even better, take the family to the other side of the Bay Bridge (St. Michael's, Cambridge ... ) for a nice, low-key getaway.

Olympic Fan
11-13-2016, 07:39 PM
I'm with OldPhiKap -- let's get to five wins before we start planning bowl trips.

4-8 teams don't go bowling, even with great APRs.

OldPhiKap
11-13-2016, 07:59 PM
I'm with OldPhiKap -- let's get to five wins before we start planning bowl trips.

4-8 teams don't go bowling, even with great APRs.

Beat Pitt. Work from there.

CameronBlue
11-13-2016, 08:00 PM
Forty-five minutes via U.S. 50E. I was in Annapolis last May for my nephew's graduation from the Naval Academy.

Did your nephew play varsity sports at the USNA? My niece who is the AD for a small private school (nickname: The Obezags) in Annapolis is also a trainer at Navy.

Bob Green
11-14-2016, 05:01 AM
Did your nephew play varsity sports at the USNA?

He did not.

rasputin
11-14-2016, 11:08 AM
Forty-five minutes via U.S. 50E. I was in Annapolis last May for my nephew's graduation from the Naval Academy.

I thought the Annapolis was in Indiana.

Indoor66
11-14-2016, 12:49 PM
I thought the Annapolis was in Indiana.

Shows what you know. That is The Annapolis! :p:cool:

JasonEvans
11-14-2016, 02:31 PM
Here's a diagram I stumbled across on twitspeak:

https://twitter.com/FF_Hokie/status/797625449765634049/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

For folks who did not click the link...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CxG8Hb8XEAAVnT-.jpg

OldPhiKap
11-17-2016, 12:31 PM
bump.

gep
11-17-2016, 11:40 PM
So... the thought is that if 5-7, Duke can get in based on their APR.

But, there are other teams out there that play 13 games instead of 12. Will a 5-7 team be judged the same as a 6-7 team? That is, are both "equal" and then it comes down to APR?

gofurman
11-18-2016, 12:53 AM
Last season three 5-7 teams went to a bowl game, all three won their bowl game.

I thought you HAD to win 6 games to go to a bowl. Which isn't that great since 6 games isn't even a winning season (6-6). Used to you had to be a winning team.

But you can go w 5-7 now? How does that work exactly? Thanks

Bob Green
11-18-2016, 04:58 AM
I thought you HAD to win 6 games to go to a bowl...

...But you can go w 5-7 now? How does that work exactly? Thanks

If there are not enough 6-6 teams to fill all the bowl game slots, 5-7 teams become eligible based on APR. Duke is #1 in APR so first in line to go bowling at 5-7.

fuse
11-18-2016, 06:55 AM
Sports social media has done some unverified math.
There are 31 teams looking to get bowl eligible.
17 of those teams have to lose to put Duke in the conversation.

I did not dig into the details, just passing along some sports pundit speculation.

asbcheeks
11-18-2016, 09:45 AM
Sports social media has done some unverified math.
There are 31 teams looking to get bowl eligible.
17 of those teams have to lose to put Duke in the conversation.

I did not dig into the details, just passing along some sports pundit speculation.

I count 35 teams that are not yet at 6 wins but can still get there:

5 win teams: NCSU, SMU, KSU, TCU, Texas, IU, Md, NW, UTSA, Southern Miss, Army, Miami (OH), Akron, Colorado St, Arizona St, UK, South Carolina, Ole Miss.

4 win teams: Cuse, BC, Duke, Cincy, Texas Tech, Charlotte, North Texas, ND, UNLV, Cal, UCLA, Vandy, Miss St, LA-Lafayette, GA Southern, UL-Monroe, S Alabama.

Last night, Arkansas State became the 60th team to qualify for a bowl, meaning there are 20 spots left for these 35 teams.

BigWayne
11-18-2016, 10:08 AM
I count 35 teams that are not yet at 6 wins but can still get there:

5 win teams: NCSU, SMU, KSU, TCU, Texas, IU, Md, NW, UTSA, Southern Miss, Army, Miami (OH), Akron, Colorado St, Arizona St, UK, South Carolina, Ole Miss.

4 win teams: Cuse, BC, Duke, Cincy, Texas Tech, Charlotte, North Texas, ND, UNLV, Cal, UCLA, Vandy, Miss St, LA-Lafayette, GA Southern, UL-Monroe, S Alabama.

Last night, Arkansas State became the 60th team to qualify for a bowl, meaning there are 20 spots left for these 35 teams.

You can follow it pretty well at this Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016%E2%80%9317_NCAA_football_bowl_games

I went through and looked at the remaining schedules of all those teams. By my estimation, there are going to be 3-5 bowl slots open for 5-7 teams or a 6-6 Army (they play two FCS schools). Last year there were 3 slots filled by 5-7 teams.

It is likely to be this way every year due to math and probabilities. With the addition of two bowls last year, the 80 slots just can't be filled when you have only 128 teams.

Reilly
11-20-2016, 11:31 AM
CU 10-1 ... SoCar

L'ville 9-2 ... Ky

VT 8-3 ... UVa
UNC 8-3 ... NCSU
FSU 8-3 ... UF

Pitt 7-4 ... Syr
Mia 7-4 ... Duke
GT 7-4 ... @UGA

WFU 6-5 ... BC

--------------------------------------------------

NCSU 5-6 ... @UNC
BC 5-6 ... @WFU

Duke 4-7 ... @Mia
ND 4-7 ... @USC
Syr 4-7 ... @Pitt

------------------------------------------------------

UVa 2-9 ... @VT

91devil
11-20-2016, 11:46 AM
For what it's worth, we will probably get a bowl invitation if we can beat Miami. I think only four schools got to their sixth win yesterday. Sixteen bowl spots remain open, and there are eighteen schools with five wins (and Army has six, see below). It's a little funky, in that Hawai'i gets to play thirteen regular season games (5-7 thus far with one more game next week), and two schools (Army and South Alabama) have multiple wins over FCS schools (but only one can count towards bowl eligibility).

The biggest challenge, of course, is for Duke to beat Miami. After yesterday's result, a very daunting task. And hard to fathom given the result and performance. But if we can do that, I don't see all of those current five win schools getting to six wins - not even close. I suspect there will be several five win schools getting bowl bids, and we'd be at the top of that list.

Reilly
11-20-2016, 12:09 PM
For what it's worth, we will probably get a bowl invitation if we can beat Miami. ...

From the wikipedia link above:

Number of bowl berths available: 80
Number of bowl-eligible teams: 64

Bowl-eligible teams that did not receive a berth[edit]
To be determined.

Teams that must win their final game for bowl eligibility[edit]
American (1): SMU
ACC (2): Boston College, North Carolina State
Big Ten (3): Indiana, Maryland, Northwestern
Big 12 (1): Texas
Conference USA (3): North Texas, Southern Miss, UTSA
Independent (1): Army[A]
MAC (2): Akron, Miami (OH)
Pac-12 (1): Arizona State
SEC (2): Ole Miss, Vanderbilt

So, Carolina beating NCSU or WFU beating BC could help Duke get a bowl berth. Maryland need only beat Rutgers. NU playing woeful Illini. TCU might beat Texas to keep Longhorns from eligibility. What if 15 of the 16 teams win and get bowl eligibility, and we have to wait till December 10 Army/Navy to see if Army gets its eligibility, or if Duke will go. Ole Miss has its rivalry game with Miss State, Indiana with Purdue. Arizona State against Arizona. Vandy presumably a decent underdog against Tennessee. Guess we could know as early as this Tuesday, November 22, given Miami (OH) plays Ball State then.

Basically, we need Miami to lose twice (OH and FL) and we bowl.

BigWayne
11-20-2016, 02:35 PM
From the wikipedia link above:

Number of bowl berths available: 80
Number of bowl-eligible teams: 64

Bowl-eligible teams that did not receive a berth[edit]
To be determined.

Teams that must win their final game for bowl eligibility[edit]
American (1): SMU
ACC (2): Boston College, North Carolina State
Big Ten (3): Indiana, Maryland, Northwestern
Big 12 (1): Texas
Conference USA (3): North Texas, Southern Miss, UTSA
Independent (1): Army[A]
MAC (2): Akron, Miami (OH)
Pac-12 (1): Arizona State
SEC (2): Ole Miss, Vanderbilt

So, Carolina beating NCSU or WFU beating BC could help Duke get a bowl berth. Maryland need only beat Rutgers. NU playing woeful Illini. TCU might beat Texas to keep Longhorns from eligibility. What if 15 of the 16 teams win and get bowl eligibility, and we have to wait till December 10 Army/Navy to see if Army gets its eligibility, or if Duke will go. Ole Miss has its rivalry game with Miss State, Indiana with Purdue. Arizona State against Arizona. Vandy presumably a decent underdog against Tennessee. Guess we could know as early as this Tuesday, November 22, given Miami (OH) plays Ball State then.

Basically, we need Miami to lose twice (OH and FL) and we bowl.

Of the 18 teams still in contention to fill the last 16 spots, 10 of them are favored to do so. The other 8 are heavy underdogs in their next game they need to win to get to 6 qualifying wins. There are likely to be 4 or 5 spots open for 5-7 teams. So if we can pull off the upset/payback for Miami, we will get invited to a bowl of some kind. Unless NC State and BC both pull off upsets, it will even be an ACC contracted bowl. ACC only has 9 teams eligible so far and ND can only get in as 5-7 bowl if they pull off the upset of USC.

Reilly
11-20-2016, 03:11 PM
Of the 18 teams still in contention to fill the last 16 spots ...

18 to fill 16 or 16 to fill 16? Thought wikipedia was just listing 16, not 18, possibly getting to 6 wins.

SCMatt33
11-20-2016, 03:23 PM
18 to fill 16 or 16 to fill 16? Thought wikipedia was just listing 16, not 18, possibly getting to 6 wins.

It's 18, there's a couple teams with two games left that are listed separately from the "needs to win final game" list.

Also, if I'm not mistaken, Army is eligible for Duke vigil purposes as 6 win teams with a non-countable win get taken before 5 win teams.

Reilly
11-20-2016, 04:13 PM
It's 18, there's a couple teams with two games left that are listed separately from the "needs to win final game" list.

Also, if I'm not mistaken, Army is eligible for Duke vigil purposes as 6 win teams with a non-countable win get taken before 5 win teams.

Who are the other 2? Army is listed as one of the 16.

91devil
11-20-2016, 04:31 PM
TCU and South Alabama each have five wins and two games remaining. Those are the other schools SCMatt was referring to.

Two of South Alabama's wins are against FCS (only one can count towards bowl elibility). So they are really like a four win team with two games left.

I think there will be about six, five win teams that get bowl bids.

gep
11-20-2016, 05:03 PM
For what it's worth, we will probably get a bowl invitation if we can beat Miami. I think only four schools got to their sixth win yesterday. Sixteen bowl spots remain open, and there are eighteen schools with five wins (and Army has six, see below). It's a little funky, in that Hawai'i gets to play thirteen regular season games (5-7 thus far with one more game next week), and two schools (Army and South Alabama) have multiple wins over FCS schools (but only one can count towards bowl eligibility).

The biggest challenge, of course, is for Duke to beat Miami. After yesterday's result, a very daunting task. And hard to fathom given the result and performance. But if we can do that, I don't see all of those current five win schools getting to six wins - not even close. I suspect there will be several five win schools getting bowl bids, and we'd be at the top of that list.

I heard somewhere (radio?) that a 6-7 Hawaii team will get the nod over all 5-7 teams...

CameronBlue
11-20-2016, 07:55 PM
Shocking display proves Yale Student body lacks diversity.

https://twitter.com/nojessicaglows/status/800067010373832705

asbcheeks
11-21-2016, 01:49 PM
I heard somewhere (radio?) that a 6-7 Hawaii team will get the nod over all 5-7 teams...

That's correct; Hawaii clinches a spot ahead of a 5-7 Duke with a win at home this weekend against 2-9 UMass to get to 6-7.

Also correct that 6-5 Army has already clinched a spot ahead of a 5-7 Duke (even if they lose this weekend to finish 6-6 with 2 FCS wins). The same logic applies to 5-5 S. Alabama (2 FCS wins), should they get to 6.

Counting Army as already "in" (bowl eligible team number 65), and Hawaii and S. Alabama as 1 win away from "in", 19 teams remain in contention for clinching one of the 15 remaining bowl slots ahead of a 5-7 Duke.

Those 19 teams include:
- Fifteen 5-6 teams with one game remaining.
- Two 5-5 teams with two games remaining (TCU and S. Alabama).
- One 5-7 team with one game remaining (Hawaii).
- One 4-6 team with two games remaining (LA-Lafayette).

Reilly
11-22-2016, 03:12 PM
4-7 Cardinals v 5-6 RedHawks tonight at 7 for the Red Bird Trophy in a game that could have implications for the Blue Devils.

OldPhiKap
11-22-2016, 03:38 PM
4-7 Cardinals v 5-6 RedHawks tonight at 7 for the Red Bird Trophy in a game that could have implications for the Blue Devils.


I will admit, when our bowl chances are reduced to having to watch this game and pick a team to support, it's not a real high point.

But do it we must. So, do it we shall.

Olympic Fan
11-22-2016, 03:58 PM
I will admit, when our bowl chances are reduced to having to watch this game and pick a team to support, it's not a real high point.

But do it we must. So, do it we shall.

Just an update -- nine ACC teams have at least six wins and are bowl eligible. The ACC has 11 firm bowl commitments.

Two ACC teams are 5-6 going into the last weekend -- NC State needs to upset UNC in Chapel Hill; BC needs to upset Wake in Winston-Salem ... one complication -- BC is 5-6, BUT two of their wins are over FCS opponents (UMass and Wagner). Not sure how that factors in.

Duke and Syracuse are both 4-7 and are both underdogs on the road this weekend -- Duke at Miami and 'Cuse at Pitt

But the truth is, I don't think Duke has to worry about anybody else -- beat Miami and Duke is the No. 1 5-7 team on the bowl pecking order (thanks to APR). The odds are extremely good that at least a few 5-7 teams get bids ... and if Duke is 5-7, they will be the first in line.

Lose to Miami and it doesn't matter. A 4-8 Duke team will stay home.

Reilly
11-22-2016, 04:03 PM
...

But do it we must. So, do it we shall.

My two favorite teams are Duke and whoever is playing South Alabama!

devildeac
11-22-2016, 04:29 PM
My two favorite teams are Duke and whoever is playing South Alabama!

That approach/attitude will never get you any votes for Mount Hatemore. :(

Reilly
11-22-2016, 07:02 PM
And we'd like Akron to fall to Ohio, on tv now.

Reilly
11-22-2016, 10:06 PM
Down goes Akron.

Reilly
11-22-2016, 10:11 PM
Miami (OH) gets its 6th win.

Reilly
11-24-2016, 08:08 AM
[redacted]

Reilly
11-24-2016, 10:17 AM
It looks like 66 teams have 6 wins. 17 more teams can get to 6 wins. We need 4 of those 17 to not get to 6 wins. Eight of the 17 are underdogs this weekend: NCSU +11/UNC Friday noon; TCU +3/Tex Friday 3:30; So Miss +14/LaTech Friday 4; BC +3.5/WFU Sat noon; La-Laf +5/Ark Stat Sat noon; SMU +7/Navy Sat 3:30; SAla +5.5/idaho Sat 3:30; Vandy +7.5/Tenn Sat 7:30. We may know for sure by Duke/Mia kickoff if a win gets us in.

-bdbd
11-24-2016, 11:05 AM
It looks like 66 teams have 6 wins. 17 more teams can get to 6 wins. We need 4 of those 17 to not get to 6 wins. Eight of the 17 are underdogs this weekend: NCSU +11/UNC Friday noon; TCU +3/Tex Friday 3:30; So Miss +14/LaTech Friday 4; BC +3.5/WFU Sat noon; La-Laf +5/Ark Stat Sat noon; SMU +7/Navy Sat 3:30; SAla +5.5/idaho Sat 3:30; Vandy +7.5/Tenn Sat 7:30. We may know for sure by Duke/Mia kickoff if a win gets us in.

Good post.

I'd bet the ranch on these odds. The question is can we beat MIA? Win and we go bowling. We should be really motivated. What about MIA? 'hope the team that beat UNC shows up on Sat...

Of course by "bowling" we mean probably Detroit or Shreveport. But still, that's several weeks of extra practice.


...and I hope that it goes down to the final play... Revenge is sweet. (No more blind, whistle-swallowing refs to bail 'canes out this year!) :D

budwom
11-24-2016, 12:00 PM
our chances hangeth by a thread. I'm be thrilled and surprised if we make it.

OldPhiKap
11-24-2016, 12:32 PM
our chances hangeth by a thread. I'm be thrilled and surprised if we make it.

I think the hardest part is beating Miami. Some 5-7 team is likely to make it, so we would be at the front of that line. But we are big dogs to get our part done.

Newton_14
11-24-2016, 12:47 PM
our chances hangeth by a thread. I'm be thrilled and surprised if we make it.

Me too. Not to be Debbie Downer/Negative Nellie, but I think this team gave us all they had left in the tank in the uncCheat win. The injuries have finally worn us out mentally and physically. I hope I'm wrong, but that's my honest take on it, and will be pleasantly surprised if we go down to Miami and pull out a win.

gep
11-24-2016, 03:13 PM
Me too. Not to be Debbie Downer/Negative Nellie, but I think this team gave us all they had left in the tank in the uncCheat win. The injuries have finally worn us out mentally and physically. I hope I'm wrong, but that's my honest take on it, and will be pleasantly surprised if we go down to Miami and pull out a win.

^^^ this... beating unc made this year's rebuilding/injury-plagued season OK in my book... they surely gave all the had and are now running on fumes. GO DUKE!!!!

Reilly
11-25-2016, 05:09 PM
NCSU gets its 6th win. We need 4 of 16 teams to not get there.

Reilly
11-25-2016, 05:24 PM
La Tech (14 point favorites) losing to SoMiss approaching halftime. SoMiss going for 6th win.

Reilly
11-25-2016, 07:01 PM
TCU will go bowling. Texas does not get its 6th win. We need 3 more (of 14) to go down to open the door for Duke.

Reilly
11-25-2016, 07:33 PM
And Southern Miss gets its 6th win. It was a 14-point underdog who we wanted to lose, and it wins by 15. Now, we need 3 (of 13 possibles) to not get that 6th win. Possibles to go down include Arizona State tonight (a 3-point favorite) and BC and La-Lafayette tomorrow at noon (3- and 5-point underdogs, respectively).

Reilly
11-25-2016, 11:43 PM
since we played cincy in belk bowl, we're 31-20 and cincy is 29-21.

since we played a&m in atl, we're 21-16 and a&m is 24-14.

since we played asu in el paso, we're 12-12 and asu is 11-13.

since we payed ind in nyc, we're 4-7 and ind is 5-6.

Reilly
11-26-2016, 01:32 AM
Down goes Arizona State -- now we need 2 more (of 12 possibles) to lose.

devildeac
11-26-2016, 08:45 AM
Down goes Arizona State -- now we need 2 more (of 12 possibles) to lose.

ASU lost?

Duke curse. :rolleyes:

Reilly
11-26-2016, 03:16 PM
Maryland got its 6th win. Need 2 (of 11 possibles), I think.

Reilly
11-26-2016, 03:29 PM
NU will get 6 it looks like.

Reilly
11-26-2016, 03:41 PM
Indiana gets its 6th win. We need 2 (of 9) to lose.

Reilly
11-26-2016, 03:42 PM
Louisiana-Lafayette got its 5th win today, with one game left.

chrishoke
11-26-2016, 04:34 PM
BC beating WF.

devildeac
11-26-2016, 06:34 PM
Duke losing by 19-doesn't look like it'll matter :( .

Reilly
11-26-2016, 06:42 PM
BC gets eligible; SMU won't; and it looks like Ole Miss won't either (down 21 in 4th right now). So it coulda/woulda/shoulda been ....

CDu
11-26-2016, 06:44 PM
BC gets eligible; SMU won't.

None of this matters unless we can somehow pull off a late miracle in Miami.

Reilly
11-26-2016, 06:47 PM
None of this matters unless we can somehow pull off a late miracle in Miami.

Right, as far as Duke is concerned. It matters to the teams involved getting to 6, matters to BC etc. for ACC slots. Of general interest.

Reilly
11-26-2016, 10:03 PM
South Alabama lost, but has 1 more shot to get to 6.

OZZIE4DUKE
11-26-2016, 10:29 PM
And so it ends. When does fall practice start?!?

Reilly
11-26-2016, 10:29 PM
UTSA gets #6; NT does not.

Reilly
11-26-2016, 10:35 PM
CU 11-1 ... VT

L'ville 9-3
VT 9-3 ... CU

FSU 8-3 ... UF

UNC 8-4
Pitt 8-4
Mia 8-4
GT 8-4

WFU 6-6
NCSU 6-6
BC 6-6

--------------------------------------------------

Duke 4-8
ND 4-8
Syr 4-8

UVa 2-10

Reilly
11-26-2016, 10:37 PM
... When does fall practice start?!?

About 6 months after spring practice ends.

YmoBeThere
11-26-2016, 11:40 PM
Vandy got to 6 wins also.

Olympic Fan
11-26-2016, 11:44 PM
One interesting twist to the ACC bowl setup -- by losing its last two games, Louisville probably cost itself the Orange Bowl.

Assuming Clemson gets in the playoff, the highest ranked ACC team gets the Orange bid ... and I'm betting Florida State will be higher ranked in the next poll (especially after hammering SEC East champ Florida).

Reilly
11-27-2016, 08:46 AM
Vandy got to 6 wins also.

That's huge for them, getting it against Tenn. Hawaii won yesterday, as well.

In last week's playoff poll, L'ville was 11, and FSU 14, so FSU leap-frogging seems reasonable. In the sports-reference SRS, FSU is now 12, and L'ville is 16: http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2016-ratings.html

The top 4 in the SRS are Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Washington. Duke is #77, UNC #37, ND #53, Army #85 and some of our losses: Miami #17, NU #40, GT #43, WFU #74, UVA #108.

BigWayne
11-28-2016, 12:28 PM
That's huge for them, getting it against Tenn.
Even bigger for Tenn. If they had not lost to Vandy, they had a decent chance to be in the Sugar Bowl. Now they are predicted to be in the gator bowl.

A-Tex Devil
11-28-2016, 01:12 PM
Even bigger for Tenn. If they had not lost to Vandy, they had a decent chance to be in the Sugar Bowl. Now they are predicted to be in the gator bowl.

The SEC other than Bama really is a dumpster fire. I guess Florida gets that Sugar Bowl spot by default now since everyone else has 4 losses.

sagegrouse
11-28-2016, 02:54 PM
The SEC other than Bama really is a dumpster fire. I guess Florida gets that Sugar Bowl spot by default now since everyone else has 4 losses.

Won't Florida have four losses after the Gators play Bama?

Kindly,
Sage
'Actually a four-loss Duke team won the Sugar Bowl in 1945 against Alabama. Of course, three of the losses were to Army, Navy and North Carolina Pre-Flight, all WW II era teams that were loaded. The Duke team ended on a roll, waxing its last three opponents, including a 33-0 whipping of UNC'

wilson
11-28-2016, 02:58 PM
Won't Florida have four losses after the Gators play Bama?I have no use for Gators, but I hope they beat Alabama, just because I want to know if it's possible to hear the committee sweat from across the country (plus I'm sick of Bama).

luvdahops
11-28-2016, 02:58 PM
Won't Florida have four losses after the Gators play Bama?

They will, but every other SEC team (ex Alabama) will also have at least 4 losses, including Auburn, LSU, A&M and Tennessee, none of whom are particularly worthy, either

JasonEvans
11-28-2016, 03:08 PM
I have no use for Gators, but I hope they beat Alabama, just because I want to know if it's possible to hear the committee sweat from across the country (plus I'm sick of Bama).

Why would the committee care? Sure, it might make them knock Bama down to the #2 or #3 team, but Bama is in the playoff regardless of how the Florida game comes out.

wilson
11-28-2016, 03:11 PM
Why would the committee care? Sure, it might make them knock Bama down to the #2 or #3 team, but Bama is in the playoff regardless of how the Florida game comes out.Yeah, I guess you're right, but it would still make things messier, what with all their talk about winning conference championships and such.
Honestly, I had forgotten that Alabama is the only undefeated Power 5 team...so this is a second useless post. Not firing on all cylinders today.