ESPN's champs, POY, and COY (aka: The great Coach K disconnect)

[JasonEvans]

So, ESPN polled 31 of their college basketball experts (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/18007429/duke-blue-devils-overwhelming-favorite-win-national-title-2016-2017) to come up with their predictions for the upcoming season. They were asked for their National Championship pick (as well as their final four), their Player of the Year, and their Coach of the Year.

21 of the 31 experts picked Duke. 5 picked Kansas, 3 picked Oregon, and 2 took Kentucky. But, more than 2/3rds of the experts picked Duke to win it all. Only 1 person (Cory Alexander -- former Virginia player) failed to pick Duke for the Final Four.

So, lets move on to Player of the Year. The picks weren't quite as Duke-slanted here, but 15 of the 31 picked a Duke player (14 for Grayson and 1 for Harry Giles). Washington's Markelle Fultz was selected by 4 experts, Dillon Brooks of Oregon and Josh Jackson of Kansas got 3 picks each, Nova's Josh Hart got 2 and then Cal's Ivan Rabb and Thomas Bryant of Indiana picked up the last 2 POY votes. So, 50% went to a Dukie.

And here comes the disconnect... when asked to pick a coach of the year, Coach K was named by only 3 people (Andy Katz, Adam Finkelstein, and Laphonso Ellis). Jay Bilas? He took Chris Mack of Xavier. Mack was a trendy pick with 3 COY selections. Dana Altman of Oregon had 5 picks. Bill Self also had 5. Dick Vitale selected Rick Pitino.

What am I missing here? Coach K assembled this team, the one that everyone expects to dominate college hoops this season. That Grayson Allen kid, he wasn't a top 5 or top 10 or even top 20 recruit coming out of high school. It took a full season of K's coaching for him to even begin to earn minutes at Duke and now he is the overwhelming favorite for Player of the Year. Might some of that have to do with the coaching development he got at Duke? Does a coach not get credit for being the first guy in history to recruit the #1 and #2 players in a high school class? Does he not get credit for putting together what is widely regarded as one of the best recruiting classes of all time and then facing the challenge of mixing them in with an experienced and talented group of veterans?

And it is not like these so-called "experts" are all picking some up-and-coming coach who they expect to get a lot out of a lesser team. Like I said, Bill Self got more votes than K. Rick Pitino, Tom Izzo, Sean Miller, and John Calipari all got votes. By what insane logic could anyone expect that Duke will win the national title, that Grayson Allen will be player of the year, and yet say that Bill Self or John Calipari would be coach of the year. If Duke is better than similar elite teams that recruit at an elite level (AZ, KU, UK, MSU, Lou, and so on) then there is no question that K did the better coaching job!!!

Look, I'm not saying that the team that is #1 or the team that wins the Naty automatically had the coach of the year. We need to see what happens this season. Maybe half the Kansas team gets injured and Self leads them to the Final Four anyway. Maybe Florida State rises up and wins an ACC title and makes a Final Four run, which would certainly give COY to Leonard Hamilton. Who KNOWS what will happen?

But, at this point, with no knowledge other than what we EXPECT to happen, it is absurd and stupid to pick anyone but K. It just drives me crazy.

-Jason "rant over..." Evans

[MChambers]

Now that K is the GOAT, or at least the second-GOAT, the voters want to give a mere mortal a chance.

[gep]

reminds me of the "man of the match" threads during JJ's final years... (MOTMEJJ... MOTM except JJ) :cool:

So maybe GOATECK (GOAT except Coach K):confused:

[OldPhiKap]

I think COY usually goes to someone whose team overachieved. Rightly or wrongly, that seems the standard.

Hard to overachieve when he'the overwhelming choice to win it all.

[DukieInBrasil]

I think COY usually goes to someone whose team overachieved. Rightly or wrongly, that seems the standard.

Hard to overachieve when he'the overwhelming choice to win it all.

no argument there, but isn't assembling a team that is the overwhelming choice to win it all part of coaching at the college level?

[OldPhiKap]

no argument there, but isn't assembling a team that is the overwhelming choice to win it all part of coaching at the college level?

I would say so. But they don't ask me to vote.

[left_hook_lacey]

So, ESPN polled 31 of their college basketball experts (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/18007429/duke-blue-devils-overwhelming-favorite-win-national-title-2016-2017) to come up with their predictions for the upcoming season. They were asked for their National Championship pick (as well as their final four), their Player of the Year, and their Coach of the Year.

21 of the 31 experts picked Duke. 5 picked Kansas, 3 picked Oregon, and 2 took Kentucky. But, more than 2/3rds of the experts picked Duke to win it all. Only 1 person (Cory Alexander -- former Virginia player) failed to pick Duke for the Final Four.

So, lets move on to Player of the Year. The picks weren't quite as Duke-slanted here, but 15 of the 31 picked a Duke player (14 for Grayson and 1 for Harry Giles). Washington's Markelle Fultz was selected by 4 experts, Dillon Brooks of Oregon and Josh Jackson of Kansas got 3 picks each, Nova's Josh Hart got 2 and then Cal's Ivan Rabb and Thomas Bryant of Indiana picked up the last 2 POY votes. So, 50% went to a Dukie.

And here comes the disconnect... when asked to pick a coach of the year, Coach K was named by only 3 people (Andy Katz, Adam Finkelstein, and Laphonso Ellis). Jay Bilas? He took Chris Mack of Xavier. Mack was a trendy pick with 3 COY selections. Dana Altman of Oregon had 5 picks. Bill Self also had 5. Dick Vitale selected Rick Pitino.

What am I missing here? Coach K assembled this team, the one that everyone expects to dominate college hoops this season. That Grayson Allen kid, he wasn't a top 5 or top 10 or even top 20 recruit coming out of high school. It took a full season of K's coaching for him to even begin to earn minutes at Duke and now he is the overwhelming favorite for Player of the Year. Might some of that have to do with the coaching development he got at Duke? Does a coach not get credit for being the first guy in history to recruit the #1 and #2 players in a high school class? Does he not get credit for putting together what is widely regarded as one of the best recruiting classes of all time and then facing the challenge of mixing them in with an experienced and talented group of veterans?

And it is not like these so-called "experts" are all picking some up-and-coming coach who they expect to get a lot out of a lesser team. Like I said, Bill Self got more votes than K. Rick Pitino, Tom Izzo, Sean Miller, and John Calipari all got votes. By what insane logic could anyone expect that Duke will win the national title, that Grayson Allen will be player of the year, and yet say that Bill Self or John Calipari would be coach of the year. If Duke is better than similar elite teams that recruit at an elite level (AZ, KU, UK, MSU, Lou, and so on) then there is no question that K did the better coaching job!!!

Look, I'm not saying that the team that is #1 or the team that wins the Naty automatically had the coach of the year. We need to see what happens this season. Maybe half the Kansas team gets injured and Self leads them to the Final Four anyway. Maybe Florida State rises up and wins an ACC title and makes a Final Four run, which would certainly give COY to Leonard Hamilton. Who KNOWS what will happen?

But, at this point, with no knowledge other than what we EXPECT to happen, it is absurd and stupid to pick anyone but K. It just drives me crazy.

-Jason "rant over..." Evans

I can see where you're coming from, but traditionally, it rarely works that way. There's not going to be a lot of love for someone's x and o ability's, when they have one of the most talented teams ever put together.

If you want to say K is the total package and part of COY should be his ability to put this team together, I'm ok with that. But as someone else mentioned, when you are starting the season with a stacked team, you're just not going to get a lot of COY talk unless you go 40-0 or something close like winning the Natty with an average margin of victory of 20+ points.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I am much more interested in wins and rings than COY awards, and I would wager K is too.

[moonpie23]

it seems like votes for COY don't go to coaches that are set up to succeed, rather, to the coach out-performs expectations.

[JasonEvans]

it seems like votes for COY don't go to coaches that are set up to succeed, rather, to the coach out-performs expectations.

Yes, and I get that. But I don't get how a pre-season vote goes to a coach expected to surprise. Once the season has happened, I understand it (even if I disagree), but I do not get doing that in the pre-season when no one has had a chance to exceed expectation yet. All we have in the pre-season is expectations.

And, as I noted in my post, there are plenty of votes for coaches of other blue blood programs who are not expected to have quite as good a year as Duke. How can the experts pick Duke to be national champs but vote for Self or Calipari or Pitino for COY? That makes no sense. Those programs are all on fairly similar footing at the start of the year.

There is a bias against K because he is always at the top. As a result, he has not won ACC COY since 2000. He has not won any national COY award since 2001.

Think about what he did in 2015, with (1)a largely freshman team that (2)had a very short bench that (3)lost Suliamon at mid-season where he (4)had to turn to zone defense to keep them from cratering until (5)he moved them back to man-to-man which helped them to (6)win the national title. He did not win ANY COY award that season. Unfathomable.

-Jason "I guess the greatest ever is just expected to always be the best... and no one bothers to notice... sigh" Evans

[OldPhiKap]

-Jason "I guess the greatest ever is just expected to always be the best... and no one bothers to notice... sigh" Evans

This. We take for granted that which is obvious.

Oh, and GO TO HELL CAROLINA just because it's on my mind this morning.

[Indoor66]

Oh, and GO TO HELL CAROLINA just because it's on my mind this morning.

It is incumbent upon anyone on this board to ALWAYS have that on their mind. :D:cool:

[UrinalCake]

Does a coach not get credit for being the first guy in history to recruit the #1 and #2 players in a high school class? Does he not get credit for putting together what is widely regarded as one of the best recruiting classes of all time and then facing the challenge of mixing them in with an experienced and talented group of veterans?

No, he does not. These awards treat recruiting as a completely separate part of what a coach does, and they only look at his on-the-court performance. I don't think they even consider player development as part of their criteria. A coach could start the season with a team of unranked three stars and turn them all into NBA lottery picks, but if he fails to make the tournament then he wouldn't be considered for any COY awards. He'd probably actually be penalized, people would be asking why he didn't do better with all of that talent.

I'm not saying I agree with this, it's just the way it is. Maybe the voters are accustomed to an NBA mindset, where a coach is just given a team and has to work with what he has (though some coaches do have influence over roster decisions). In fairness, Calipari did not get many votes for COY either even though most have them in the Final Four. When you have overwhelming talent, the assumption is that it doesn't take much to coach them (again, not something I agree with). Interestingly, the one vote he did get came from Cory Alexander, the same guy that didn't vote for Duke to make the FF.

[brevity]

But I don't get how a pre-season vote goes to a coach expected to surprise.

This is one of your better sentences. It's amazingly packed. It's alarmingly unprophetic.

Asking for a preseason COY is (oxy)moronic, even more than asking to choose a preseason Most Improved Player, which can at least be defended by steady statistical improvement or full recovery from injury.

If asked for a preseason COY, the only proper answer is to pick the coach of the team that you predict will win a championship, even if you've picked another team as your preseason #1. Any other answer would, as Jason hinted, require a few extra and unnecessary logical jumps. I can see a situation where a very talented team succeeds despite its lightweight coach, but I'd pick that coach anyway. Look at any COY winner list and you'll see more than a few head scratchers.

[JasonEvans]

This is one of your better sentences. It's amazingly packed. It's alarmingly unprophetic.

Asking for a preseason COY is (oxy)moronic, even more than asking to choose a preseason Most Improved Player, which can at least be defended by steady statistical improvement or full recovery from injury.

If asked for a preseason COY, the only proper answer is to pick the coach of the team that you predict will win a championship, even if you've picked another team as your preseason #1. Any other answer would, as Jason hinted, require a few extra and unnecessary logical jumps. I can see a situation where a very talented team succeeds despite its lightweight coach, but I'd pick that coach anyway. Look at any COY winner list and you'll see more than a few head scratchers.

Yes! Thank you, brevity for understanding.

I could see picking a team that is not your championship pick. Lets say you expect Northwestern to finally have a team that will make the NCAA tourney and be ranked for the first time in god knows how many years. I could see a vote for Collins under a scenario like that. Picking someone who has not been super successful in the past, in a program on the rise that may finally become a national player that season makes a ton of sense to me. I don't even have a problem with the folks picking Dana Altman, who appears to have lifted Oregon to the upper echelon of college hoops and may have his best team ever this year.

But the folks who are voting for other blue bloods is what really makes me angry. Picking a coach from a program that is consistently in the top 15 or so makes no sense at all in the preseason. How can anyone possibly say (prior to the games being played) that Self, Calipari, Few, Sean Miller, Izzo or Pitino (all of whom got votes from ESPN's experts) will have a better season than K? Where is the logic there?

-Jason "I am going to rant about this on the podcast this week... thought I doubt I will say anything different from what I have said in this thread" Evans

[ChillinDuke]

This is one of your better sentences. It's amazingly packed. It's alarmingly unprophetic.

Asking for a preseason COY is (oxy)moronic, even more than asking to choose a preseason Most Improved Player, which can at least be defended by steady statistical improvement or full recovery from injury.

If asked for a preseason COY, the only proper answer is to pick the coach of the team that you predict will win a championship, even if you've picked another team as your preseason #1. Any other answer would, as Jason hinted, require a few extra and unnecessary logical jumps. I can see a situation where a very talented team succeeds despite its lightweight coach, but I'd pick that coach anyway. Look at any COY winner list and you'll see more than a few head scratchers.

Frankly, I think that, especially on the ESPN side, the COY choices are used as part of a particular talking head's platform. It's posturing.

For example, Jay Bilas picks Chris Mack. OK. Well now Jay will go on to talk about Chris Mack for much of the season, at least the early stages while Xavier cleans up as one of the, generally, tourney-caliber teams. When they get to that section of Gameday, Bilas will crow, "Yeah, it's all about Chris Mack. This is what Chris Mack does, he just wins games. ... " blah, blah, blah. It's saying something without really saying anything. It's hitting the ball down the fairway.

Then when Xavier loses a bunch of conference games or flames out in the tourney, no one will remember who Jay Bilas picked for preseason COY. He'll at that point be talking about the actual in-season COY(s). And on we go with ESPN life.

No one (or at least the vast majority of talking heads) is going to stick their neck out there and say Coach K is the preseason COY. It's too easy to get picked apart; it's too polarizing - insofar as a preseason COY pick can be polarizing.

When being asked to do a meaningless thing, why try to put meaning in it? That seems to be the popular wisdom. Or perhaps not wisdom, just convention.

I can't wait for the day when a task, any task, could be performed with meaning and intention. I have a feeling I'll be waiting a long time. Maybe Jay really does believe that Chris Mack is the preseason COY. Maybe he does. But even if he said he does, would anyone really know, care, or question? Fairway.

- Chillin

On second thought - being polarizing gets a lot of clicks on The Twitter, etc. So I wonder why more people don't just say Coach K and then post all about it on The Twitter.

[Forrest]

Neither Mike Krzyzewski nor Dean Smith has ever been AP's Coach of the Year. OTOH, past winners include Frank Haith, Keno Davis, Matt Doherty, and Cliff Ellis. I concluded a long time ago that COY awards are not worth my attention.

[Wahoo2000]

Yes! Thank you, brevity for understanding.

I could see picking a team that is not your championship pick. Lets say you expect Northwestern to finally have a team that will make the NCAA tourney and be ranked for the first time in god knows how many years. I could see a vote for Collins under a scenario like that. Picking someone who has not been super successful in the past, in a program on the rise that may finally become a national player that season makes a ton of sense to me. I don't even have a problem with the folks picking Dana Altman, who appears to have lifted Oregon to the upper echelon of college hoops and may have his best team ever this year.

But the folks who are voting for other blue bloods is what really makes me angry. Picking a coach from a program that is consistently in the top 15 or so makes no sense at all in the preseason. How can anyone possibly say (prior to the games being played) that Self, Calipari, Few, Sean Miller, Izzo or Pitino (all of whom got votes from ESPN's experts) will have a better season than K? Where is the logic there?

-Jason "I am going to rant about this on the podcast this week... thought I doubt I will say anything different from what I have said in this thread" Evans

At least K is rarely "blamed" when things go wrong or you guys happen to bow out early in the tourney. Even in 05-09 while Carolina was winning titles and you guys failed to get past the S16, I heard little to no grumbling from fans or media about whether or not K had lost a step. Sure, he might get some grief over stuff like the Brooks thing, but that's different as it's not related to coaching, just behavior.

So while he rarely gets the praise you're looking for, he just as rarely gets the blame for anything that goes wrong. Pretty much the inverse of the QB-rule for football. Might not be much to soothe you, but at least seeing the other side of the "no respect" coin might make you feel a little better?;)

[jimsumner]

COY awards almost always go to coaches of teams that over-achieve based on their preseason rankings.

If you're picked to win it all, how do you over-achieve? Win 40 of 35 games?

Not saying it's right.

But it is.

Mike Krzyzewski has won three NCAA titles since his last ACC COY award. In 1992 Duke was ranked number one nationally in the AP poll every week of the season, en route to a 34-2 NCAA-title season.
ACC COY that year? Pat Kennedy.

And it isn't just college hoops. Phil Jackson was NBA COY one time. One.

[Trinity_93]

it seems like votes for COY don't go to coaches that are set up set themselves up to succeed, rather, to the coach who out-performs expectations.

FIFY.

[moonpie23]

FIFY.

sporkzy mcsporkz

[JasonEvans]

At least K is rarely "blamed" when things go wrong or you guys happen to bow out early in the tourney. Even in 05-09 while Carolina was winning titles and you guys failed to get past the S16, I heard little to no grumbling from fans or media about whether or not K had lost a step. Sure, he might get some grief over stuff like the Brooks thing, but that's different as it's not related to coaching, just behavior.

So while he rarely gets the praise you're looking for, he just as rarely gets the blame for anything that goes wrong. Pretty much the inverse of the QB-rule for football. Might not be much to soothe you, but at least seeing the other side of the "no respect" coin might make you feel a little better?;)

Well, that is because he has earned the right to have down years (though Duke's down years are often what 99% of other programs would consider among the best in their history). It is not like he is immune to all criticism. If Duke were to start missing the NCAA tourney for a few years in a row and fall to the bottom tier of the ACC, I assure you that Coach K would likely be urged to move into retirement. He's no different from many other coaches who have had so much success they can withstand a few seasons of lesser results because the fans know they will right the program and get it back into contention.

By the way, the 2005-09 years where (according to you) "things went wrong," were not nearly as bad as you make them seem.


2004-05 - 27-6 record; 11-5, 3rd in the ACC, Sweet 16
2005-06 - 32-4 record; 14-2, 1st in the ACC, Sweet 16
2006-07 - 22-11 record; 8-8, 6th in the ACC, Rnd 64
2007-08 - 28-6 record; 13-3, 2nd in the ACC, Rnd 32
2008-09 - 30-7 record; 11-5, 2nd in the ACC, Sweet 16

So, Duke won 139 games in 5 years with 3 SW 16s and 4 finishes in the ACC top 3. I am not sure, but my bet is that no more than 3 or 4 other teams in the country won that many games in the time and I doubt more than 3 or 4 others made it to 3 Sweet 16s in 5 years. UNC was the only ACC program with more wins in the conference during that 5 year run. So, your point that Coach K gets a pass and no criticism for his down years is sorta untested... his doesn't really have down years.

-Jason "thanks for posting, Wahoo. We like Virginia around here and many of us are big Tony Bennett fans" Evans

[mkirsh]

Well, that is because he has earned the right to have down years (though Duke's down years are often what 99% of other programs would consider among the best in their history). It is not like he is immune to all criticism. If Duke were to start missing the NCAA tourney for a few years in a row and fall to the bottom tier of the ACC, I assure you that Coach K would likely be urged to move into retirement. He's no different from many other coaches who have had so much success they can withstand a few seasons of lesser results because the fans know they will right the program and get it back into contention.

By the way, the 2005-09 years where (according to you) "things went wrong," were not nearly as bad as you make them seem.


2004-05 - 27-6 record; 11-5, 3rd in the ACC, Sweet 16
2005-06 - 32-4 record; 14-2, 1st in the ACC, Sweet 16
2006-07 - 22-11 record; 8-8, 6th in the ACC, Rnd 64
2007-08 - 28-6 record; 13-3, 2nd in the ACC, Rnd 32
2008-09 - 30-7 record; 11-5, 2nd in the ACC, Sweet 16

So, Duke won 139 games in 5 years with 3 SW 16s and 4 finishes in the ACC top 3. I am not sure, but my bet is that no more than 3 or 4 other teams in the country won that many games in the time and I doubt more than 3 or 4 others made it to 3 Sweet 16s in 5 years. UNC was the only ACC program with more wins in the conference during that 5 year run. So, your point that Coach K gets a pass and no criticism for his down years is sorta untested... his doesn't really have down years.

-Jason "thanks for posting, Wahoo. We like Virginia around here and many of us are big Tony Bennett fans" Evans

I also recall plenty of consternation about Coach K at that time - he was spending too much time with Team USA, he couldn't land the big recruits (Greg Monroe, John Wall, Barnes, etc), his motion offense and system of D was outdated, Roy was passing him by, etc. The 2010 Champs came a bit out of nowhere, and he's been on one of the greatest recruiting hot streaks ever since then, but he was not above criticism back then.

[snowdenscold]

Seems the analogy is that a certain movie is the pre-Oscar choice for Best Picture, plus Best Actor and Best Actress, but not Best Director.

[Wahoo2000]

Well, that is because he has earned the right to have down years (though Duke's down years are often what 99% of other programs would consider among the best in their history). It is not like he is immune to all criticism. If Duke were to start missing the NCAA tourney for a few years in a row and fall to the bottom tier of the ACC, I assure you that Coach K would likely be urged to move into retirement. He's no different from many other coaches who have had so much success they can withstand a few seasons of lesser results because the fans know they will right the program and get it back into contention.

By the way, the 2005-09 years where (according to you) "things went wrong," were not nearly as bad as you make them seem.


2004-05 - 27-6 record; 11-5, 3rd in the ACC, Sweet 16
2005-06 - 32-4 record; 14-2, 1st in the ACC, Sweet 16
2006-07 - 22-11 record; 8-8, 6th in the ACC, Rnd 64
2007-08 - 28-6 record; 13-3, 2nd in the ACC, Rnd 32
2008-09 - 30-7 record; 11-5, 2nd in the ACC, Sweet 16

So, Duke won 139 games in 5 years with 3 SW 16s and 4 finishes in the ACC top 3. I am not sure, but my bet is that no more than 3 or 4 other teams in the country won that many games in the time and I doubt more than 3 or 4 others made it to 3 Sweet 16s in 5 years. UNC was the only ACC program with more wins in the conference during that 5 year run. So, your point that Coach K gets a pass and no criticism for his down years is sorta untested... his doesn't really have down years.

-Jason "thanks for posting, Wahoo. We like Virginia around here and many of us are big Tony Bennett fans" Evans

Should have clarified to mean down years in terms of postseason success only.

[jv001]

Well, that is because he has earned the right to have down years (though Duke's down years are often what 99% of other programs would consider among the best in their history). It is not like he is immune to all criticism. If Duke were to start missing the NCAA tourney for a few years in a row and fall to the bottom tier of the ACC, I assure you that Coach K would likely be urged to move into retirement. He's no different from many other coaches who have had so much success they can withstand a few seasons of lesser results because the fans know they will right the program and get it back into contention.

By the way, the 2005-09 years where (according to you) "things went wrong," were not nearly as bad as you make them seem.


2004-05 - 27-6 record; 11-5, 3rd in the ACC, Sweet 16
2005-06 - 32-4 record; 14-2, 1st in the ACC, Sweet 16
2006-07 - 22-11 record; 8-8, 6th in the ACC, Rnd 64
2007-08 - 28-6 record; 13-3, 2nd in the ACC, Rnd 32
2008-09 - 30-7 record; 11-5, 2nd in the ACC, Sweet 16

So, Duke won 139 games in 5 years with 3 SW 16s and 4 finishes in the ACC top 3. I am not sure, but my bet is that no more than 3 or 4 other teams in the country won that many games in the time and I doubt more than 3 or 4 others made it to 3 Sweet 16s in 5 years. UNC was the only ACC program with more wins in the conference during that 5 year run. So, your point that Coach K gets a pass and no criticism for his down years is sorta untested... his doesn't really have down years.

-Jason "thanks for posting, Wahoo. We like Virginia around here and many of us are big Tony Bennett fans" Evans

And we're not really sure uncheat players were actually eligible to play, since they were allergic to class rooms. GoDuke!

[gam7]

I think I've got our undue-pressure NBA playing style comp for Frank Jackson. Dwyane Wade. Anyone else see it?