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Dev11
11-06-2016, 11:01 PM
The podcast team is back to preview the Duke Basketball season. This was a fun episode, check it out!

Timestamps:
Hello and welcome to Episode 60! We're here to preview the basketball season, which begins on Friday.
1:50 Sam has strong feelings about an exhibition game against Augustana.
4:50 Let's discuss all the guys who didn't get to play both exhibition games? Baseless speculation!
9:20 The great season prediction game celebrates its first birthday. We analyze our picks and edit the categories real time.
16:00 Sam suffers due punishment for joking about player injuries.
26:10 Donald one-ups Jason's optimism in a strong way as we wrap season predictions.
29:30 Marist and Grand Canyon are looming. Jason thinks that Grand Canyon is actually Grand Cayman.
43:50 Duke Football has had a strangely disappointing season in the ACC so far. We attempt to break it down.
54:20 Parting shots include soccer, baseball, and basketball.
Happy college basketball season from your favorite Duke podcast!

Links:
iTunes (https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/dbr-podcast/id954964236?mt=2)
Google Play (https://goo.gl/app/playmusic?ibi=com.google.PlayMusic&isi=691797987&ius=googleplaymusic&link=https://play.google.com/music/m/Ikxgkr6wboxnehrbaoqd47vw4gq?t%3DDuke_Basketball_Re port)
Soundcloud (https://soundcloud.com/dbrpodcast)
Stitcher (http://app.stitcher.com/browse/feed/58077/details)

brevity
11-07-2016, 12:58 AM
29:30 Marist and Grand Canyon are looming. Jason thinks that Grand Canyon is actually Grand Cayman.

Jason grew suspicious when they asked students to fund their meal plans in an offshore account.

UrinalCake
11-07-2016, 09:13 AM
Agree with a Jason that turnovers is probably the biggest concern for the team at the moment. We haven't looked very comfortable bringing the ball up the court against pressure, even in these early warmup games, and against Augustana we committed several careless turnovers by trying to make too much happen on a fast break, turning to run down court after a rebound without being aware of a defender standing nearby, or straight up throwing the ball away trying to pass to a teammate. I think K wanted to work on playing at a faster pace in this game and the team isn't quite ready for that. It's early, and we haven't seen the full team together, but still something to pay attention to. I don't think we're ever going to have high assist totals based on how the team is constructed, but I'm not too worried about that.

In your predictions, to account for the Giles factor I would have gone with rebounds per minute and blocks per minute, rather than per game. I think when Giles initially comes back he'll have a couple games where he plays 10-15 minutes, and even when he's 100% I think his minutes will be limited to maybe 20-25 until we reach the postseason. But Amile is going to play 30+ minutes all year. So there's no way Giles can catch him on a per-game basis, but if the question we're trying to answer is "who will be the better rebounder/blocker?" then going per minutes would even that out.

Enjoyed the podcast as always!

Dev11
11-07-2016, 10:00 AM
In your predictions, to account for the Giles factor I would have gone with rebounds per minute and blocks per minute, rather than per game. I think when Giles initially comes back he'll have a couple games where he plays 10-15 minutes, and even when he's 100% I think his minutes will be limited to maybe 20-25 until we reach the postseason. But Amile is going to play 30+ minutes all year. So there's no way Giles can catch him on a per-game basis, but if the question we're trying to answer is "who will be the better rebounder/blocker?" then going per minutes would even that out.

Enjoyed the podcast as always!

That's a good suggestion, I wish we had thought of it. Maybe next year we'll finally have the predictions game figured out.

Feel free to weigh in on the predictions game!

JasonEvans
11-07-2016, 11:24 AM
In your predictions, to account for the Giles factor I would have gone with rebounds per minute and blocks per minute, rather than per game. I think when Giles initially comes back he'll have a couple games where he plays 10-15 minutes, and even when he's 100% I think his minutes will be limited to maybe 20-25 until we reach the postseason. But Amile is going to play 30+ minutes all year. So there's no way Giles can catch him on a per-game basis, but if the question we're trying to answer is "who will be the better rebounder/blocker?" then going per minutes would even that out.

I hear you but I figure those first few games where Giles may not play heavy minutes will be sorta meaningless once we look at the entirety of the season. And, even in those games where he plays less, I bet Giles still puts up some nice rebounding/block numbers. He was the consensus #1 recruit in what is regarded as a truly great high school class. Once he starts playing, he is going to be jaw-dropping good and his stats will match that.

-Jason "I can't believe no one has commented yet about Donald saying, 10!" Evans

flyingdutchdevil
11-07-2016, 12:27 PM
I hear you but I figure those first few games where Giles may not play heavy minutes will be sorta meaningless once we look at the entirety of the season. And, even in those games where he plays less, I bet Giles still puts up some nice rebounding/block numbers. He was the consensus #1 recruit in what is regarded as a truly great high school class. Once he starts playing, he is going to be jaw-dropping good and his stats will match that.

-Jason "I can't believe no one has commented yet about Donald saying, 10!" Evans

I'll bite. How is 10 outrageous? I'm with Donald on this. Have you seen our non-conference schedule? It's terrible! Outside of MSU, KU, and Florida, the best team we play is and Cincinnati (#28). After that? It's really, really bad. Even if Duke goes with non-rotation players with 5 min to go up 40 and we're at 90, we'll be playing Jack White, Delaurier, Vrank, and possibly Jeter. Those are likely to be the 4 best players on the floor.

Insane offensive talent + deep class + awful non-conference schedule + playing GT and BC once each = 10 games with over 100 points is achievable.

DukieTiger
11-07-2016, 12:37 PM
I'll bite. How is 10 outrageous? I'm with Donald on this. Have you seen our non-conference schedule? It's terrible! Outside of MSU, KU, and Florida, the best team we play is and Cincinnati (#28). After that? It's really, really bad. Even if Duke goes with non-rotation players with 5 min to go up 40 and we're at 90, we'll be playing Jack White, Delaurier, Vrank, and possibly Jeter. Those are likely to be the 4 best players on the floor.

Insane offensive talent + deep class + awful non-conference schedule + playing GT and BC once each = 10 games with over 100 points is achievable.

Duke didn't hit 100 in exhibition play though... No matter how good a team is offensively, and how bad the competition is, things can happen to prevent you from reaching 100.

UrinalCake
11-07-2016, 12:51 PM
I think if we WANTED to hit 100 ten times we could do it, but K doesn't play to run up the score. In these early season scrub matchups we'll get a huge lead at halftime and then play stall ball for much of the second half. Historically K tends to leave the starters in way longer than he should, but if the Augustana game is any indication he will substitute more liberally this year when the game is out of hand.

With that said, I do remember during that 1999 season we beat Virginia 100-54, it sent a pretty clear message that we were taking no prisoners.

UrinalCake
11-07-2016, 12:57 PM
I hear you but I figure those first few games where Giles may not play heavy minutes will be sorta meaningless once we look at the entirety of the season. And, even in those games where he plays less, I bet Giles still puts up some nice rebounding/block numbers. He was the consensus #1 recruit in what is regarded as a truly great high school class. Once he starts playing, he is going to be jaw-dropping good and his stats will match that.

I'll buy that he may win in blocks per game, but Amile is my definite choice for rebounds. The guy is always in the right position and goes out and gets boards instead of waiting for them to come to him.

I'll make an unofficial bold prediction and say that Matt Jones leads the team in three point percentage. He was narrowly behind Allen last year (41.5% to 41.7%) but has the luxury of only taking open shots. Now that he's healthy I think he'll be money for us.

JasonEvans
11-07-2016, 01:41 PM
I think if we WANTED to hit 100 ten times we could do it, but K doesn't play to run up the score. In these early season scrub matchups we'll get a huge lead at halftime and then play stall ball for much of the second half.
This ^^^^^


With that said, I do remember during that 1999 season we beat Virginia 100-54, it sent a pretty clear message that we were taking no prisoners.
Yeah, on the pod I noted that we hit the 100 mark 9 times during the 1999 season. We were a ridiculous offensive juggernaut that year and when we brought in bench guys like Corey "T-me-up" Maggette, Chris "I should be starting" Burgess, Nate "Bad***" James, and Taymon "Pete Gillen's statue" Domzalski they were still extremely skilled players. We could not help but crush folks.

I think this year may be much of the same as our depth is off the chain. When Javin deLaurier, Chase Jeter, and Jack White are your 9th-11th men... that's absurd.

--Jason "but 10 times topping 100... whew, that is a lot!" Evans

UrinalCake
11-07-2016, 02:52 PM
^ other considerations when comparing our team to 1999:

- shorter shot clock (30 seconds vs. 35)
- "freedom of movement" rules that allow more driving to the basket, fewer handchecks (though this rule is enforced differently every year)
- more players with aspirations of leaving early = bench guys wanting to run up the score

Oh, one other thing - you mentioned in the podcast that the most number of games we could play would be 40. Not that I expect this to happen, but there is a scenario where we could play more - if we are not one of the top 4 seeds in the ACC tournament, we would play an extra round. In fact I think it is theoretically possible to play 43 games: be one of the bottom four seeds in the ACC and thus have to play two extra rounds, yet make it to the final game. Then get into the NCAA tournament as one of the last at-large teams and play in the First Four. If a team did that and make it to the National Championship game, this playing 43 games, that would make for one of the greatest historical footnotes of all time!

JasonEvans
11-07-2016, 04:25 PM
Oh, one other thing - you mentioned in the podcast that the most number of games we could play would be 40. Not that I expect this to happen, but there is a scenario where we could play more - if we are not one of the top 4 seeds in the ACC tournament, we would play an extra round. In fact I think it is theoretically possible to play 43 games: be one of the bottom four seeds in the ACC and thus have to play two extra rounds, yet make it to the final game. Then get into the NCAA tournament as one of the last at-large teams and play in the First Four. If a team did that and make it to the National Championship game, this playing 43 games, that would make for one of the greatest historical footnotes of all time!

While I very much appreciate the thought and research that went into coming up with that 43-game scenario, my fine smelling friend, I would be willing to wager much moolah that Duke will not be playing in what amounts to the ACC play-in tourney ;)

-Jason "you could probably win a bar bet with someone though by showing a team could play 43 NCAA basketball games in one season" Evans

blazindw
11-07-2016, 07:14 PM
-Jason "I can't believe no one has commented yet about Donald saying, 10!" Evans

Bold prediction questions require bold prediction responses. ;)

If I'm right, I'm right. If I'm wrong, I could have been right, so I'm right because I ain't wrong. I could be wrong, but even if I'm wrong, I'm right.

UrinalCake
11-07-2016, 07:27 PM
So my question is, WHICH ten games will see us top 100 points? The ten worst opponents on the schedule by my estimation are

Marist
Grand Canyon
Penn State
William and Mary
App. State
Maine
Tennessee State
Elon
Boston College
First round of NCAAT

I disagree with the notion that we'll score 200 points in 24 hours to kick off the season, but DW already made that prediction. BC is improved so I don't see us stomping them. And the first round of the NCAAT will see us resting because we're thinking about the next game two days later. It's not impossible that we'd do it against all of these opponents, but man that is certainly one BOLD prediction. I think it's more likely that we go undefeated than for us to score 100 points ten times. But I love the confidence!

blazindw
11-07-2016, 08:45 PM
So my question is, WHICH ten games will see us top 100 points? The ten worst opponents on the schedule by my estimation are

Marist
Grand Canyon
Penn State
William and Mary
App. State
Maine
Tennessee State
Elon
Boston College
First round of NCAAT

I disagree with the notion that we'll score 200 points in 24 hours to kick off the season, but DW already made that prediction. BC is improved so I don't see us stomping them. And the first round of the NCAAT will see us resting because we're thinking about the next game two days later. It's not impossible that we'd do it against all of these opponents, but man that is certainly one BOLD prediction. I think it's more likely that we go undefeated than for us to score 100 points ten times. But I love the confidence!

While on the podcast I mentioned that I had put these two games down as part of the 100 club, I didn't really go through the rest game by game. My thought process was we'd get 8 during the regular season and 2 in the postseason (ACCT/NCAAT). I'm not even mad if I'm wrong...but if I'm right, my swagger will be unstoppable!

flyingdutchdevil
11-09-2016, 11:59 AM
While on the podcast I mentioned that I had put these two games down as part of the 100 club, I didn't really go through the rest game by game. My thought process was we'd get 8 during the regular season and 2 in the postseason (ACCT/NCAAT). I'm not even mad if I'm wrong...but if I'm right, my swagger will be unstoppable!

Also want to point out that Marques and Giles injured may help out the offense (but certainly crushes our defense). A line-up of Grayson, Luke, Jones, Tatum, and Amile is just an offensive juggernaut. That's three players who can consistently hit the 3. 3 players comfortable driving to the hoop. 3 mid-range hitters. 1 offensive rebounding guru who doesn't miss within 3 feet. I'll take this offensive line-up over anything else. Is it our best overall line-up? Most likely not, but it's tough to get a better offensive line-up. Tatum at the 4 is just unstoppable...

JasonEvans
11-09-2016, 12:41 PM
Also want to point out that Marques and Giles injured may help out the offense (but certainly crushes our defense). A line-up of Grayson, Luke, Jones, Tatum, and Amile is just an offensive juggernaut. That's three players who can consistently hit the 3. 3 players comfortable driving to the hoop. 3 mid-range hitters. 1 offensive rebounding guru who doesn't miss within 3 feet. I'll take this offensive line-up over anything else. Is it our best overall line-up? Most likely not, but it's tough to get a better offensive line-up. Tatum at the 4 is just unstoppable...

Umm, I'm not saying it would be ideal, but our best offensive lineup would clearly be: Grayson, Frank, Luke, Tatum, and Jefferson. While we would sorely miss Matt's stellar defense and hustle, Frank Jackson is a vastly superior shooter and scorer.

flyingdutchdevil
11-09-2016, 12:42 PM
Umm, I'm not saying it would be ideal, but our best offensive lineup would clearly be: Grayson, Frank, Luke, Tatum, and Jefferson. While we would sorely miss Matt's stellar defense and hustle, Frank Jackson is a vastly superior shooter and scorer.

Fair enough, but my point still stands. Tatum at the 4 with Jefferson at the 5 creates too many problems for opponents on defense (and likely problems for us on defense).

JasonEvans
11-09-2016, 01:02 PM
Fair enough, but my point still stands. Tatum at the 4 with Jefferson at the 5 creates too many problems for opponents on defense (and likely problems for us on defense).

We are in full agreement about that. I think Tatum is impossible for any collegiate 4 to guard.

NSDukeFan
11-09-2016, 01:37 PM
Umm, I'm not saying it would be ideal, but our best offensive lineup would clearly be: Grayson, Frank, Luke, Tatum, and Jefferson. While we would sorely miss Matt's stellar defense and hustle, Frank Jackson is a vastly superior shooter and scorer.

If Frank Jackson is a vastly superior shooter, I should probably revise my minutes projections and reconsider that 40-0 tattoo. Do you really believe he is a better shooter than Matt? I would like to see him hit some shots against division 1 opponents first. Matt's shooting and floor spreading is what makes me think that even if Frank has more potential to score in more ways, Matt may still be a better offensive option.

flyingdutchdevil
11-09-2016, 02:10 PM
If Frank Jackson is a vastly superior shooter, I should probably revise my minutes projections and reconsider that 40-0 tattoo. Do you really believe he is a better shooter than Matt? I would like to see him hit some shots against division 1 opponents first. Matt's shooting and floor spreading is what makes me think that even if Frank has more potential to score in more ways, Matt may still be a better offensive option.

Yeah, and with Grayson and Tatum, you have players who need the ball in their hands. With Jackson, that goes to 3. Having Luke and Matt spreads the floor better and allows Grayson and Tatum to do whatever they want.

Don't get me wrong; Jackson is by far the more versatile player. I wouldn't be surprised if Jackson has as many lay-ups in one game as Jones has in a season. But it's about balance, not number of excellent offensive weapons.

devildeac
11-09-2016, 02:24 PM
So my question is, WHICH ten games will see us top 100 points? The ten worst opponents on the schedule by my estimation are

Marist
Grand Canyon
Penn State
William and Mary
App. State
Maine
Tennessee State
Elon
Boston College
First round of NCAAT

I disagree with the notion that we'll score 200 points in 24 hours to kick off the season, but DW already made that prediction. BC is improved so I don't see us stomping them. And the first round of the NCAAT will see us resting because we're thinking about the next game two days later. It's not impossible that we'd do it against all of these opponents, but man that is certainly one BOLD prediction. I think it's more likely that we go undefeated than for us to score 100 points ten times. But I love the confidence!

You forgot two:

Duke 100/cheaters 3-at the dump
Duke 107/cheaters 2-CIS

A fella can dream, right :o? After all, I just sent Kate Upton off to MA to comfort FDD :p .

UrinalCake
11-09-2016, 09:47 PM
You forgot two:

Duke 100/cheaters 3-at the dump
Duke 107/cheaters 2-CIS

A fella can dream, right :o? After all, I just sent Kate Upton off to MA to comfort FDD :p .

I suppose it's possible that one of our 100-point games could actually happen against a better opponent when both teams are gunning away. Maybe our showdown against Kansas sees us going small and bombing from three, with neither team playing much defense, and we win 101-99 in overtime. Or maybe we get into a track meet with Louisville. Anything is possible, our team is versatile enough to play lots of different styles, and with Giles and Bolden nursing injuries I can see us playing Tatum more at the 4 which would lead to more offense (and less defense).