Luke Winn's top 15 backcourts

[6th Man]

How does Duke not have a top 15 backcourt?????

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/multimedia/photo_gallery/0710/cbb.top.15.backcourts/content.1.html

[Bob Green]

While we are loaded with talent at Shooting Guard and Wing Guard, our PG is unproven. Paulus is coming off an injury riddled second season and Nolan Smith is a Freshman.

I'm not saying I agree with this assessment, just that this is the conventional wisdom in regard to our backcourt.

[houstondukie]

what a joke

[Classof06]

I was not surprised to see Duke omitted from this list. The fact that we were a first round knockout last year should've tipped you off. I mean, if you're Luke Winn, and you saw how Duke finished last year, would you honestly put our backcourt as one of the top 15 in America? Given the overall season Paulus had (not just the last 10 games) and the way Scheyer faded towards the end of the season, I don't see how you could expect Duke to make this list.

Duke has one of the deepest backcourts in America, but don't mistake that with one of the best. Demarcus is a steady constant, but I think any CBB writer in America will tell you that Paulus, Scheyer and Henderson all have a lot to prove this year. Paulus needs to put together a consistent season, Scheyer needs to take that next step as both a scorer and defender and finish the year as strong as he started, and after a freshman year of flashes, Henderson is officially on the clock to realize his ridiculously promising potential.

Basically, as deep as our backcourt is, it's still largely unproven. Our backcourt is capable of making noise, but let's wait until January or so before declaring Duke to have the best of anything...

[6th Man]

I see what you are saying Bob. I was just shocked initially that we weren't at least around 10 or so. I wouldn't trade our backcourt for half of those teams. I guess it shows Mickey D's don't mean a whole lot. I bet we have more Big Macs at guard than any of these teams....

Paulus, Scheyer, Smith, Nelson, Henderson

Oh well, just some more added incentive for the Devils to prove the doubters wrong.

[Troublemaker]

There are some very good backcourts in that list. Do I think our backcourt is going to step up this year and make that list a joke by the end of the season for not including Duke? Yeah. But I can defend the list AT THIS TIME.

[SilkyJ]

There are some very good backcourts in that list. Do I think our backcourt is going to step up this year and make that list a joke by the end of the season for not including Duke? Yeah. But I can defend the list AT THIS TIME.

Completely agree. Also, I think the fact that Duke will play 3 guards most of the time (sometimes 4 probably) means we will see a ton of point production come out of our backcourt...not that that's news to anyone here.

[Wander]

Oh well, just some more added incentive for the Devils to prove the doubters wrong.

Being omitted from Luke Winn's Top 15 backcourts is added incentive for the players? Do you really think Jon Scheyer cares?

I think Duke's backcourt is better than that of Davidson, Villanova, Texas, Michigan State, Louisville, and UNC. So I'd have us around 10ish for right now.

[ACCBBallFan]

How does Duke not have a top 15 backcourt?????

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/multimedia/photo_gallery/0710/cbb.top.15.backcourts/content.1.html

I imagine UK may be asking the same question. Kentucky seems to parallel Duke with wing depth and shortage of front court guys, in UK Case only two seniors and a seldom used junior, the rest frosh and sophs.

If Duke gets a chance to match up with Marquette in Maui, good test to see if they are improved.

Winn could not win. If he had picked Duke big backlash.

It would be interesting to know how Paulus was selected for elite PG camp this summer and how much of that training turns from potential into kinetic.

I think when people hear back court they think more in terms of PG, than [PG-SG-WF combined], and in ACC the first 3 names that come to mind are Singletary, Rice and Lawson.

FSU trio of Toney Douglas-Isaiah Swann-Jason Rich backed up by Ralph Mims in not too shabby either, and if MD had another proven guy to go with Hayes/Vasquez they would get some consideration.

So in general ACC is pretty strong at PG/SG but four or five teams are going to struggle orienting a new PG into the talented ACC PG mix, though in many cases these are also four teams with a lot of non-PG returning depth: NC St, Clemson, GA Tech, and Miami, not the case for VA Tech who got more bad news.

http://blogs.newsobserver.com/accnow/index.php?title=spanning_the_acc&more=1&c=1&tb=1&pb=1

Bad news for VA Tech basketball. (Freshman Darrion Pellum is ineligible) That's the second freshman Seth Greenberg has lost to academics and the status of a third (J.T. Thompson) is still pending. (The Roanoke Times)

[mapei]

Georgetown has Wallace and Sapp, with Rivers, Crawford, Freeman and Wright as reserves. That is as good as all but about five of the teams on that list.

[Cali-Duke]

what i don't understand is, how can our preseason ranking be around 16 when our backcourt isn't in the top 15. Our frontcourt is definitely not in the top 30, so what is keeping our ranking around 16? Coaching? Backcourt depth? Kyle Singler?

[ACCBBallFan]

what i don't understand is, how can our preseason ranking be around 16 when our backcourt isn't in the top 15. Our frontcourt is definitely not in the top 30, so what is keeping our ranking around 16? Coaching? Backcourt depth? Kyle Singler?
When Gary Parrish ranked by Shooterss and Wings, Nelson and Singler were listed with no Duke guys in bigs or points.

[6th Man]

I think Curry from Davidson is a great player, but overall if our backcourt can't compete with Davidson, it's going to be one long year. I would think Pocius(probably our odd man out in the rotation) would be a big contibutor at Davidson.

I am really anxious to watch Nolan Smith play. I think he is just what the doctor ordered for this team. A very quick defensive oriented PG. We could have used him against Maynor last year for sure!

I would love to see Smith, Nelson, Henderson, Thomas, and Singler on the floor for just a few minutes. That would be a pretty athletic squad that would probably be an ESPN highlight reel waiting to happen.

[Patrick Yates]

I too was not surprised by Winn's list (not surprising if you are at all familiar with my posts).

But, rather than thinking about how good our backcourt is, and why Winn should have included it, we should be thinking about the composition of said backcourt, at least from Winn's perspective.

It is fairly obvious that Winn was working on a "traditional" backcourt makeup, that being a PG, a SG, and their backups. In the case of the teams running a 3 guard alignment, all three players are obviously guards, either true PGs, combos, or Pure SGs.

I think the reason Duke did not make the list is that Winn does not consider Henderson to be a member of the backcourt. In his mind Henderson is almost definitely a small forward at Duke.

So, when Winn considered Duke's backcourt, he likely included Paulus, Scheyer, Smith, Pocius, and very probably Nelson (some consider him a Swing player between SF and SG, but Luke probably considerd him a guard).

I am not saying that Winn is wrong or right to exclude Henderson from the backcourt, but, if he did then this would clearly explain (and justify) Duke's exclusion.

Without Henderson, who Winn probably considers to be a SF, thus not part of the backcourt, Duke's backcourt is good, but not elite. The potential is clearly present, but there are too many questions, eg:

Can Paulus play a season like the last few games, will Scheyer improve, will Nelson bounce back from the injury, is Smith ready to contribute, and can Pocious be a consistent player?

The answer to most of those questions is probably yes, but they are all valid questions in the preseason. With Henderson as a guard, Duke's potential and athleticism is far too great for them to be excluded from a top 15 list (and probably they would be top 10 or better). But without Hendo, the potential, while still very solid, is not enough to outweigh legitimate, lingering questions, as the season opens.

Had the list gone to 16 or 17, Duke would be on it, even with Hendo not included, and the blurb would have stated that Duke had the potential to end the season much farther up the list.

Patrick Yates

[gw67]

Winn does not appear to be consistent. In several cases, it appears that he includes a wing player along with the two guards. IMO, his ratings should be based on the set of perimeter players. On this basis, the Duke group of Paulus, Nelson, Scheyer, Henderson, Smith and Pocious is one of the top perimeter groups in the country. As far as perimeter players are concerned, I like Kansas, Washington State (he left off Harmeling), Memphis, Marquette, Oregon, Duke and UNC. Others who may come on strong, IMO, include Gonzaga (Pargo, Bouldin, Downs, Gurganious) and Syracuse (Devendorf, Harris, Flynn, Rautins).

gw67

[jipops]

What is interesting is that Duke will most likely not make any preseason top-backcourt / top-frontcourt lists, yet we'll be talked about all year regarding all the talent that exists. We must not have nearly as much talent as a lot of other teams if we don't make these lists, huh? But you can bet that Duke will never be seen as having over-achieved no matter how favorable the season-ending results may be.

I don't disagree with Duke being left off this top-backcourt list. But the typical non-Duke fan school of thought is 'they lack this, they lack that, but look at all that loaded talent!!'. Seems a bit contradictory.

[Cameron]

I mean, if you're Luke Winn, and you saw how Duke finished last year, would you honestly put our backcourt as one of the top 15 in America?

Absolutely not. Our starting backcourt played terrible down the stretch against VCU. Brick city on offense, and nowhere on defense. I love Jon just as much as the next guy, but I think he may have forgotten how to shoot the basketball in the final minutes. Dreadful, just dreadful. VCU had better, quicker guards that night. No question about it.

Take the loss to VCU and add that with the four game losing streak late in February and you have a mediocre backcourt at best, at least in terms of the following year's preseason predictions. Does that mean our backcourt won't become a very, very good one once 2007-08 gets rolling? No. But, until they come out and prove themselves all over again, they are not going to get any respect, especially not from the general media who tends to dislike Duke so much to the exent that it's actually hate.

[jawk24]

I agree with both of you Bob Green and Classof06, our point guard situation is iffy at best and new talent is unproven.

[gw67]

I suspect that some posters are correct in concluding that writers like Winn were influenced by the swoon at the end of the season. If fact, during the past months the views of several of the posters toward the perimeter players have been influenced by the 4-8 record at the end of the season. Looking back at those twelve games, it seems to me that Coach K did all he could to put the best team on the floor. Paulus, though recovering from an injury, averaged over 37minutes/game during this period while Scheyer averaged over33 minutes/game while appearing to have heavy legs after a long freshmen season. Henderson averaged nearly 21 minutes/game and Nelson almost 32 minutes per game. These four players along with McRoberts played about 160 minutes a game during the last 12 games (This lineup, with Singler substituted for McRoberts, is often proposed as the best Duke lineup for the coming year). McClure and Thomas made up most of the difference.

The interesting thing to me about the last 12 games was that the offensive stats for most of the players were not that different from their final season stats. Paulus carried the offensive load at 17.3 ppg and Henderson averaged 8.6 ppg, while Nelson and Scheyer were close to their season averages. McClure and Thomas disappeared offensively during these games.

While the end of the season was painful, I tend to give the benefit of the doubt to the returning perimeter players. Paulus should be recovered from his injury, Scheyer and Henderson should be improved as sophs, Nelson should have a solid year, Smith has the potential to contribute as a freshman and Pocious can help if there is an injury. Very few teams have this quality depth and, hopefully, we will not get into a situation where we have to play Paulus nearly 38 mins/game. I expect the perimeter players to be the strength of the team this year.

gw67

[Patrick Yates]

GW is right about our perimeter. They should be the strength of our team this year.

He is also right in saying that he expects them to improve, or at least be healthier this year.

I suspect this is the crux of Winn's thinking. We EXPECT them to improve. Winn probably expects them to improve. However, all of the teams he listed are more proven than we are. There is less volatility with the other squads. Ours could end up better than up to 10 of those squads. But, and we have to admit it, that same volatility works downward. We could easily (one key injury or sophmore slump) be noticably worse than any of those teams, and a few others as well.

I think the likelihood of us being better is higher, but Winn is probably scared of the worse part. Writers get really slammed for thinking a team will be better than they are, far more so than for thinking a team will be worse than they turn out to be.

Given Duke's volatility, he chose to err on caution's side. Duke, though we love them all, is not a flawless team. Other writers will be down us before the season really gets going.

Patrick Yates

[Cameron]

Jon quickly became my favorite Blue Devil a year ago, especially after coming up HUGE against hated Carolina in his first Rivalry in Blue game, scoring a career high of 26. He really had a great rookie season in the ACC and was probably our best all-around player at the midway point (though did struggle down the stretch due to, as one poster eluded to above, tired freshman leg syndrom).

With that said, I was talking with a fellow Duke fanatic and he was telling me his early worries that Jon would be "caught on to" by the rest of the ACC this season and that he would go through a sophomore slump. Now after watching how teams picked up on his somewhat slower shooting release and lack of speed by the time last season came to a conclusion, I am starting to wonder a little myself.

Does anyone else think Jon may struggle a bit getting himself good looks this year? From what I saw of the open gym games this summer in Durham, Jon didn't seem as improved as I would have hoped. He wasn't shooting particularly well and his overall body strengh didn't seem to be anymore than it was at season's end. Perhaps I am just being a bit paranoid (this tends to be my major downfall in life), but was just wondering if anyone else had these same thoughts? Hopefully not.

All paranoia aside, I think Jon could have a breakout sophomore year. He has all the tools to be the next four year great in Durham. I think it's obvious that Coach K sees this, and that's why has Jon started from the beginning, even when most questioned it. And why he will start once again this year.

Here's to a sensational sophomore campaign for Jon Jon!!!

[Classof06]

This is aimed at the people who thought we should've been on Winn's list...

I agree with Patrick. While many of us are optimistic and bullish on Duke's team this year (and we should be), you really can't expect many writers to stick their necks out there for Duke. On paper, which is all we have as of today, Duke doesn't really look to be that much better than they were last year.

This is mainly because Smith and King and especially Singler are all question marks; they haven't played a second of college basketball. Furthermore, if Paulus' foot injury isn't enough to convince some Duke fans that he will have a much better season, you're not going to convince the media and/or general public of that. As an Ohio State football fan, I'm witnessing firsthand how long it takes to regain respect after a rough finish the year before.

Simply put, a 2nd place finish in the ACC for Duke is about as much as you should expect to hear from any writer between now and the start of the ACC schedule. As much as I love Duke, it would idiotic for the media to predict anything more at this point. Regardless of who our coach is, most people would still label Duke as "one year away".

[Wander]

Absolutely not. Our starting backcourt played terrible down the stretch against VCU. Brick city on offense, and nowhere on defense. I love Jon just as much as the next guy, but I think he may have forgotten how to shoot the basketball in the final minutes. Dreadful, just dreadful. VCU had better, quicker guards that night. No question about it.


Fine. Then I'd like to hear from you 15 backcourts that deserve to be ranked ahead of Duke's.

[Indoor66]

Fine. Then I'd like to hear from you 15 backcourts that deserve to be ranked ahead of Duke's.

Why does anyone get excited by a list that has no impact on anything? So Winn has this opinion. By Mid-January we will all have a solid idea of which backcourts perform best - even tough their teams may not have the best record. This whole discussion is a meaningless exercise, IMO.

[Wander]

Why does anyone get excited by a list that has no impact on anything? So Winn has this opinion. By Mid-January we will all have a solid idea of which backcourts perform best - even tough their teams may not have the best record. This whole discussion is a meaningless exercise, IMO.

Obviously - but that same logic could be applied to any discussion of the sport in the preseason.

I'm curious to see what 15 backcourts people here think deserve to be ranked higher than Duke's.

[ACCBBallFan]

I suspect that some posters are correct in concluding that writers like Winn were influenced by the swoon at the end of the season. If fact, during the past months the views of several of the posters toward the perimeter players have been influenced by the 4-8 record at the end of the season. Looking back at those twelve games, it seems to me that Coach K did all he could to put the best team on the floor. Paulus, though recovering from an injury, averaged over 37minutes/game during this period while Scheyer averaged over33 minutes/game while appearing to have heavy legs after a long freshmen season. Henderson averaged nearly 21 minutes/game and Nelson almost 32 minutes per game. These four players along with McRoberts played about 160 minutes a game during the last 12 games (This lineup, with Singler substituted for McRoberts, is often proposed as the best Duke lineup for the coming year). McClure and Thomas made up most of the difference.

The interesting thing to me about the last 12 games was that the offensive stats for most of the players were not that different from their final season stats. Paulus carried the offensive load at 17.3 ppg and Henderson averaged 8.6 ppg, while Nelson and Scheyer were close to their season averages. McClure and Thomas disappeared offensively during these games.

While the end of the season was painful, I tend to give the benefit of the doubt to the returning perimeter players. Paulus should be recovered from his injury, Scheyer and Henderson should be improved as sophs, Nelson should have a solid year, Smith has the potential to contribute as a freshman and Pocious can help if there is an injury. Very few teams have this quality depth and, hopefully, we will not get into a situation where we have to play Paulus nearly 38 mins/game. I expect the perimeter players to be the strength of the team this year.

gw67

I think you are correct, GW67. The final dozen games it was not the Duke Offense, but rather the Duke defense that fell apart. Having a Nolan Smith to give Nelson, Scheyer and Paulus an occasional break should prevent end of game disappearances by Nelson and end of season heavy legs by Scheyer.

Nolan having the chronic ankle injuries did not help the Duke cause.

Assuming Duke will not play too much micro small ball with Paulus, Scheyer, Nelson, Henderson and Singler unless Zoubek and Lance have already fouled out, it will be interesting to see how 120 minutes are spread across these 6 guys,

whether 3 of the guys get 30 plus minutes each or whether all 6 of Paulus, Scheyer, Nelson, Henderson, Marty and Nolan gets at least 10 minutes per game.

[Cameron]

Wander:

I'm not going to sit here and try to search the internet for teams that might outshine Duke in the backcourt department. As a Duke fan, that would just be foolish and a complete waste of time. Although some of the backcourts Winn mentioned, such as Kansas, Tennessee, North Carolina, Villanova, Texas, UCLA, Memphis, and Marquette (which, BTW, thoroughly handed our's a royal beating last season) certainly should be placed ahead of the Blue Devils' still unproven starting guards. I'm sorry to say this but Greg, Jon, and whatever other Duke guard you want to add into the euqation, just do not add up to the aforementioned clubs' backcourts at this point in time.

VCU, a small, unknown mid-major, walked into the NCAA Tournament last March and ran our starting guards ragged, driving past them like Indy race car drivers would amish children in carriages. It was ugly. They were a better, quicker, and more polished backcourt.

Now don't get me wrong, I am very, very happy with the guards/wings we have right now in Durham. They might not be the best in the nation, but they still have loads of potential. Greg has shown great strides of improvement, Jon has a chance to be a jersey in the rafters type of player when his career at Duke is all said and done, DeMarcus is a very talented do-it-all kind of guy, and Gerald, if his three-point shot starts rolling, could be a Jason Williams-like talent.

However, at this point, it's all just speculation. These guys, while showing great signs at different times in the season last year, still have yet to prove where they actaually stand among the nation's elite. They were way too inconsistent, especially defensively, and that really showed in games against quicker guards, as mentioned above with Marquette, UNC, and VCU. So, no, at this point I would not attack any media personality who is not too sweet on Duke's guard play, especially with the often shakey Greg Paulus running the show. (And that is meant as no disrepect towards Greg, as he really has shown strides of good improvement. Just saying.)

And remember now, if Luke Winn is like most 95 percent of other college basketball "experts," then he probably likes Duke about as much as you and I like slamming our heads up against the trunk of a car. So why would he show Duke any love in a list of elite backcourts? Especially when that group of Devils finished last season losing 8 of it's last 12 contests.

We have a lot to prove.

[Patrick Yates]

Why does anyone get excited by a list that has no impact on anything? So Winn has this opinion. By Mid-January we will all have a solid idea of which backcourts perform best - even tough their teams may not have the best record. This whole discussion is a meaningless exercise, IMO.

This captures the crux of the pointlessness of Winn's excercise. He has a job, and a meaningless ranking like this is a great way to fill inches. These rankings have almost no bearing on overall team performance.

Just look at the frontcourt rankings. He has NCSU in the top 5 or so, with the blurb that this strong (and then some) front court makes NCSU a darkhorse candidate in the ACC. Now, everyone here is ACC country knows that the flipside of this very strong Frontcourt, possibly one of the top 2 in the ACC top to bottom, is a laughably weak backcourt, especially at the PG slot. This will probably hold NCSU back.

These rankings mean nothing.

Also, resist the urge to rise to his lure. Writers love to leave off a team with a large national profile and a rabid fan base (sound familiar) in the hopes that said rabid fans will inundate him with poorly supported letters and comments that he can then hold up to the world with derision. Duke has some problems, but we have potential, and had we been included in the bottom 5 of this ranking I would not be shocked. He left us out partially to arouse fervant debate. Let's hold off accusing him of bias until January. If the Devils are producing by then, we can revisit this slight with solid proof, as opposed to blind faith (and no small measure of subjectivity), and make reasoned arguments in favor of the Devils.

Patrick Yates

[Wander]

If the Devils are producing by then, we can revisit this slight with solid proof, as opposed to blind faith (and no small measure of subjectivity), and make reasoned arguments in favor of the Devils.


Just because someone thinks Duke has a top 15 backcourt doesn't mean they're using blind faith or subjectivity. I don't think Winn is biased or anti-Duke, I just think he's wrong.

Until someone shows me 15 backcourts that deserve to be ranked higher, which no one's been able to do (no, Villanova and VCU don't count), I'm going to say that Duke deserves to be in that ranking.

[CDu]

Just because someone thinks Duke has a top 15 backcourt doesn't mean they're using blind faith or subjectivity. I don't think Winn is biased or anti-Duke, I just think he's wrong.

Until someone shows me 15 backcourts that deserve to be ranked higher, which no one's been able to do (no, Villanova and VCU don't count), I'm going to say that Duke deserves to be in that ranking.

Why do Villanova and VCU not count? Just because you don't think those teams have better backcourts doesn't mean it's not true.

Duke has a lot of potential and a lot of depth. But there are lots of ways to rate backcourts, and depth isn't always the best way to rate backcourts. Other approaches might be biggest impact players, or best playmaking point guards, or best combination of pure point guards and scorers.

You seem demanding of people to "prove your theory wrong." Well, which teams in his list do you think Duke has a better backcourt, and why?

In my opinion, I can agree with most of Winn's list. The only ones I might argue differently are Davidson and maybe Villanova, and I could be convinced on those. And just within conference I could argue that FSU and Maryland have better backcourts than we do (better point guard play for Marlyand, better scoring guard play from FSU). And that's just within this conference.

It's all speculative though, because we don't really know yet how well our backcourt will do at reaching their potential. And we don't know what the other teams' backcourts will do either.

[Cameron]

I don't seem to recall which players from a season ago return to VCU's roster, but if the starting backcourt is still in tact then they have to be be ranked higher than Duke. Sorry, but their guards ate our's for breakfast. Not only were they quicker, more athletic, and better overall scorers, they were just better. Slip the tape in the VCR and try an argue that. You can't, unless you never look at life outside your subjective lenses.

Now does that mean I would rather have VCU's guards instead of our's? Of course not. But until our guys prove their worth this season against the nation's elite backcourts, then you can't rank them ahead of a team that took them to the shed last March.

[FewFAC]

Other than the deceptively low 3FG% Duke allowed (more a function of opponents being able to drive at will against the Duke guards, therefore decreasing the need to attempt 3FGs), I wouldn't start the Duke backcourt against any team in the ACC much less argue they are top-15 nationally. And with a significant interior defensive loss going into this year, it might get a lot uglier before it gets better.

[ACCBBallFan]

I don't seem to recall which players from a season ago return to VCU's roster, but if the starting backcourt is still in tact then they have to be be ranked higher than Duke. Sorry, but there guards ate our's for breakfast. Not only were they quicker, more athletic, and better overall scorers, they were just better. Slip the tape in the VCR and try an argue that. You can't, unless you never look at life outside your subjective lenses.

Now does that mean I would rather have VCU's guards instead of our's? Of course not. But until our guys prove their worth this season against the nation's elite backcourts, then you can't rank them ahead of a team that took them to the shed last March.
Looks like they lost Pellot-Rosa but return most of their other top guys, including Maynor and Walker.

http://scoreboards.aol.com/basketball/ncaab/team/vacommon/roster.aspx

[ACCBBallFan]

Other than the deceptively low 3FG% Duke allowed (more a function of opponents being able to drive at will against the Duke guards, therefore decreasing the need to attempt 3FGs), I wouldn't start the Duke backcourt against any team in the ACC much less argue they are top-15 nationally. And with a significant interior defensive loss going into this year, it might get a lot uglier before it gets better.Not sure I follow your logic. Presumably by being able to blow by Duke defenders at will, the 3's they do take are more wide-open and with fewer taken for same reason, the % made has better chance of being higher than average.

I think Duke emphasis on stopping the 3, even at expense of allowing guards to penetrate, is a more likely factor in the low percentage allowed

Depending on how you are defining back court, just the PG/SG or the three .
PG-SG-WF, would affect whether Duke is ever at a disadvantage relative to the rest of the ACC

who has 4 or 5 teams with no proven PG in NC State, GA Tech, Miami and VA Tech plus Clemson if Hammonds is the SG.

Then if you consider that Singletary and Rice are lone rangers, that's more than half of ACC that Duke fares better than in either measure.

UNC with Lawson/Ellington/Ginayrd/GreenFrasor/QT is comparable in depth and slightly better overall,

FSU with Toney Douglas/Isaiah Swann/Jason Rich/Ralph Mims is pretty good but not as solid as Duke

Wake has Ish Smith and a couple of decent wings but not in same class

Likewise Maryland has Vasquez/Hayes but no proven wing

So overall, as in most ACC stats, UNC and Duke lead the ACC in backcourt strength.

[Patrick Yates]

Other than the deceptively low 3FG% Duke allowed (more a function of opponents being able to drive at will against the Duke guards, therefore decreasing the need to attempt 3FGs), I wouldn't start the Duke backcourt against any team in the ACC much less argue they are top-15 nationally. And with a significant interior defensive loss going into this year, it might get a lot uglier before it gets better.

I don't think Duke is a top 15 yet either, but there are only a few AAC backcourts I like better than ours from top to bottom (limited to people who actually play, no walk-ons or scrubs included). Really, only UNC has us beaten for sure. I would say UMD is approximate with us, but they lost a LOT of experience, so they may struggle with depth. But we got everybody else. UVA is a step behind, only becaus of who they lost. Singletary is still the best PG in the league, and one other guard (Diakite?) is very solid, but there is little depth.

GT lost too much, UM and FSU are shakey, and Clemson is decent to good, but Clem is definitely behind Duke.

NCSU and WFU backcourts are wastelands. WFU might improve, but I will have to see something out of NCSU to believe they are even marginal ACC talents.

So, while Duke may not be national elites (lack of speed kills us) we are one of the class groups in the ACC.

Patrick Yates

ps This guy is obviously trolling, but I beseech the Mods not to redact. It is unwarranted.

[FewFAC]

Not sure I follow your logic. Presumably by being able to blow by Duke defenders at will, the 3's they do take are more wide-open and with fewer taken for same reason, the % made has better chance of being higher than average.

This conclusion assumes that wide-open 3FGAs are being taken by high quality shooters.


I think Duke emphasis on stopping the 3, even at expense of allowing guards to penetrate, is a more likely factor in the low percentage allowed

No disagreement is whether this philosophy is a factor. Whether it is advisable is a different matter.


Depending on how you are defining back court, just the PG/SG or the three .
PG-SG-WF, would affect whether Duke is ever at a disadvantage relative to the rest of the ACC

who has 4 or 5 teams with no proven PG in NC State, GA Tech, Miami and VA Tech plus Clemson if Hammonds is the SG.

Then if you consider that Singletary and Rice are lone rangers, that's more than half of ACC that Duke fares better than in either measure.

UNC with Lawson/Ellington/Ginayrd/GreenFrasor/QT is comparable in depth and slightly better overall,

FSU with Toney Douglas/Isaiah Swann/Jason Rich/Ralph Mims is pretty good but not as solid as Duke

Wake has Ish Smith and a couple of decent wings but not in same class

Likewise Maryland has Vasquez/Hayes but no proven wing

So overall, as in most ACC stats, UNC and Duke lead the ACC in backcourt strength.

On paper, the potential to be elite exists. The expectation is to be near the top of the league. And regardless of the definition, I am not sold on the backcourt. History tells us the depth will be underused. The best players will be overused. And opponents will benefit from a worn down team towards the end.

I have no problem whatsoever with optimism regarding the likelihood for success. I just don't see it.

[Wander]

I don't seem to recall which players from a season ago return to VCU's roster, but if the starting backcourt is still in tact then they have to be be ranked higher than Duke. Sorry, but there guards ate our's for breakfast. Not only were they quicker, more athletic, and better overall scorers, they were just better. Slip the tape in the VCR and try an argue that. You can't, unless you never look at life outside your subjective lenses.


If they returned their starting backcourt, I would agree with you that VCU's should be ranked ahead of ours.

But, they don't. They lose Walker and Pellot-Rosa. Maynor is very good, but overall, our backcourt looks to be better and deserves to be ranked higher right now.

[Wander]

You seem demanding of people to "prove your theory wrong." Well, which teams in his list do you think Duke has a better backcourt, and why?


Well, it makes sense from a logical perspective. There's obviously room for debate on a subjective topic like this but it's a little ridiculous to be so strongly convinced that Duke doesn't deserve to be ranked as one of the top 15 backcourts if you can't name 15 others that deserve a higher ranking right now.

As for teams on his list I think Duke deserves to be ranked higher than: Villanova, Davidson, Louisville, USC, Michigan State, and maybe Texas. You're welcome to ask for my reasoning on any specific one of these, but in general I'll just caution people to remember that a backcourt consists of more than one player.

And the VCU stuff that people are trying to argue doesn't make sense to me - they lose two of their three best guards, and don't seem to have anyone of the same calibur to replace them.

[crimsonandblue]

I think Winn is a Kansas grad, for what it's worth. After the clown suit the UCLA guards put on KU in the Elite Eight, I would be hesitant to put KU ahead of UCLA, even with the loss of Afflalo.

I also think that if Nolan Smith can defend points and free Nelson up to play his own man/position, there will a lot fewer detractors. I think the non-ranking reflects solely on the national perception of Greg Paulus as a point who can't guard points and as a floor leager with a poor A/T ratio.

I think the perception of Duke's guards hinges largely on Paulus's play. Not that anyone should really care about perception...

[6th Man]

I think Nolan Smith is what really bolsters our backcourt from last year. He appears to have the quickness and athletic ability to defend guys like Maynor. We can be athletic in the backcourt with Smith, Nelson, and Henderson. (I consider Henderson a guard) I know McDonald's AA's don't always pan out, but I'll take 5 in my backcourt over Davidson's anyday. I also think Duke players are held to a higher standard. Paulus, Nelson, Smith, Henderson, Scheyer may not be Dawkins, J Will, Hurley.....but few are. Now put them up against Curry, Richards, and Gosselin from Davidson and it is a joke. I think it is also too bad for Paulus that Duke does not play zone. It hurts him in our system playing man-to-man D all the time and going against quicker players.

I know it has been mentioned in a few posts that this is a meaningless exercise and a meaningless list(and this is true), but what else are we going to have fun talking about before the games start? I'm not upset about Winn's list, but I have enjoyed reading all of the posts and observations from everyone. Hopefully it will be a fun year.

[Wander]

Now put them up against Curry, Richards, and Gosselin from Davidson and it is a joke.

I agree that Duke's backcourt is better than Davidson's but I certainly wouldn't call it a joke. Curry and Richards are better than you're giving them credit for.

[CDu]

Well, it makes sense from a logical perspective. There's obviously room for debate on a subjective topic like this but it's a little ridiculous to be so strongly convinced that Duke doesn't deserve to be ranked as one of the top 15 backcourts if you can't name 15 others that deserve a higher ranking right now.

As for teams on his list I think Duke deserves to be ranked higher than: Villanova, Davidson, Louisville, USC, Michigan State, and maybe Texas. You're welcome to ask for my reasoning on any specific one of these, but in general I'll just caution people to remember that a backcourt consists of more than one player.

And the VCU stuff that people are trying to argue doesn't make sense to me - they lose two of their three best guards, and don't seem to have anyone of the same calibur to replace them.

With regard to your first paragraph, yes there's room for debate. I'm not strongly convinced EITHER way (hence the subjectiveness). You're the one who appears strongly convinced that Duke is in the Top 15, yet you've produced any rationale. There is a list of 15 already to debate. Currently, if one agrees with Winn's 15, then there's the 15 you requested. I don't necessarily disagree with Winn's 15 (I can certainly understand his arguments), and I can see FSU and Maryland also potentially ahead of Duke. It all depends on how it plays out. That's 17. My rationale is that one difference maker and 2 mediocre players is more valuable than 3-5 decent players or 3-5 inconsistent players. And more importantly, I value strong point guard play over all else in the backcourt. And we haven't proven to have that (yet).

But, again, it's all speculative because (a) ANY ranking system is highly subjective and (b) we don't know what the teams are going to look like this season. Duke has lots of potential, but until Paulus shows he can consistently run an effective half-court D-1 offense without Redick and Williams to carry the load, I'd drop us in the rankings in backcourt play.

I personally think ANY attempt to rank backcourts is silly (for the reasons listed in my previous paragraph). Things vary game to game and season to season so much. All I care is that we somehow return to greatness. I don't care if it's due to Paulus regaining his high school form, or the rest of the backcourt stepping up, or the frontcourt making great strides, or all of the above.


Back to the first paragraph though: you've yet to prove why Duke should be in the top 15 (over the other

[ACCBBallFan]

It depends on whether one is measuring perimeter depth in which case Duke is 6 deep and is at or near the top along with UNC, UK and a very few others or best back court which could be as few as two where a superstar caliber guard swings the balance.

The latter definition works against Duke who best perimeter guy Henderson's potential greatness is not so much his guard play as the rest of his repertoire.

Also a little early to tell depending on how good an on the ball defender Nolan Smith turns out to be, and how PT is spread among Nelson, Paulus, Scheyer, Henderson, Nolan Smith and Marty Pocius.