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pfrduke
10-27-2016, 10:27 AM
I'm hopeful that Neals384 will still come along and do the tabulation, but there has been much clamor among the masses to officially open up the minutes contest, so here we are. This is a very simple contest - pick the MPG that the players on Duke's roster will have this year. Note that we will count MPG as a percentage of TOTAL team minutes, not just team minutes in the game the player plays. In other words, if Giles plays half the season and plays 20 minutes in each of those games, his MPG will be 10 minutes per game. Here's a link to the chart (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?35964-2015-16-Minutes-Discussion&p=837899#post837899) that had last year's guesses. If there are any questions, post them in this thread. Deadline to enter is 6:00 p.m. eastern on Nov. 11.

flyingdutchdevil
10-27-2016, 11:12 AM
Thanks pfrduke. My minutes as per your instructions:

Grayson Allen: 35
Amile Jefferson: 31
Jayson Tatum: 29
Matt Jones: 25
Luke Kennard: 22
Frank Jackson: 20
Marques Bolden: 17
Harry Giles: 12
Chase Jeter: 5
Other: 4

NSDukeFan
10-27-2016, 11:39 AM
Grayson Allen - 30
Amile Jefferson - 28
Jayson Tatum - 27
Matt Jones - 25
Harry Giles - 23
Luke Kennard - 22
Frank Jackson - 20
Marques Bolden - 15
Chase Jeter - 8
Javin DeLaurier - 2

Antonio Vrankovic, Sean Obi, Jack White, Justin Robinson, Nick Pagliuca, Brennan Besser hopefully some, but I don't know anyone I would take minutes from, even though I always hope to see the bench guys play more. Maybe, some overtime games so we can go over 200 minutes per game? No, that's too stressful.

flyingdutchdevil
10-27-2016, 11:46 AM
Grayson Allen - 30
Amile Jefferson - 28
Jayson Tatum - 27
Matt Jones - 25
Harry Giles - 23
Luke Kennard - 22
Frank Jackson - 20
Marques Bolden - 15
Chase Jeter - 8
Javin DeLaurier - 2

Antonio Vrankovic, Sean Obi, Jack White, Justin Robinson, Nick Pagliuca, Brennan Besser hopefully some, but I don't know anyone I would take minutes from, even though I always hope to see the bench guys play more. Maybe, some overtime games so we can go over 200 minutes per game? No, that's too stressful.

Interesting. With the exception of Giles, we're on the same page in terms of minute rank. I would have Giles a lot higher, but I'm so uncertain about his readiness. And based on what Coach K has said, he's gonna be brought along slowly.

MarkD83
10-27-2016, 11:48 AM
Duke has too many good players.....

cbarry
10-27-2016, 11:54 AM
Grayson Allen - 30
Jayson Tatum - 30
Amile Jefferson - 24
Luke Kennard - 24
Frank Jackson - 23
Marques Bolden - 22
Matt Jones - 21
Harry Giles - 15
Javin DeLaurier - 5
Chase Jeter - 5
Jack White- 1

pfrduke
10-27-2016, 12:20 PM
So we're three picks in and already have a potential issue, which is that each of the three posters picked for different sets of players. One included White and DeLaurier, one DeLaurier, and one neither (but included "Others"). So let's put some ground rules around this:



Anyone who averages at least 2 minutes per game (80 minutes for the season)* will be graded individually. That is, if you don't make a specific guess for that player, you will be deemed to have guessed 0. That player CANNOT count as "other"
Anyone who averages fewer than 2 minutes per game can count as "other"; however, if you choose to pick individual minutes for someone who ends up under 2 mpg, you can get graded against that choice.
I note, merely for observation, the minutes played by the ninth and 10th players by minutes for each season since 2010, which suggests that people should be picking at least the top 9 by person, and probably at least 10. Last year was a huge aberration on this front, which I suspect is not likely to occur this year.

2010: 9th - 5.7 (Kelly); 10th - 1.5 (Czyz)
2011: 9th - 8.2 (Irving, sigh); 10th - 4.5 (Hairston)
2012: 9th - 7.2 (Hairston); 10th - 3.3 (Gbinije)
2013: 9th - 5.4 (Murphy); 10th - 1.4 (MP3)
2014: 9th - 7.3 (MP3); 10th - 6.7 (Jones) - note also that #11 got 2.3 (Ojeyele)
2015: 9th - 8.3 (Allen); 10th - 1.6 (Ojeyele)
2016: 9th - 0.8 (Obi); 10th - 0.4 (Vrankovic)



For those of you who have already picked, you are free to revise your choices consistent with these rules.

*Yes, I know what I did there. Knock on wood, etc. Two minutes per game will be the official threshold, not total minutes.

MChambers
10-27-2016, 12:29 PM
Allen 30
Jefferson 30
Jones 27
Kennard 26
Tatum 24
Jackson 16
Bolden 18
Giles 19
Jeter 8
White 2
Delaurier 2
Vrankovic 1

devildeac
10-27-2016, 12:34 PM
Damn, I had exactly the winning numbers until Harry had his knee scoped :rolleyes: .

Back to the Ouija board and IPAs again tomorrow night to see if I get them right again. :o

David Bunkley
10-27-2016, 12:36 PM
Grayson Allen - 29
Luke Kennard - 25
Jayson Tatum - 27
Amile Jefferson - 25
Matt Jones - 28
Frank Jackson - 25
Harry Giles - 16
Marques Bolden - 12
Chase Jeter - 10
Javin DeLaurier - 1
Jack White - 1
Others - 1

Jeter will probably average less than 10 minutes per game once Harry is 100%, but I hope he plays well in the early going and earns a spot in the rotation.

Ichabod Drain
10-27-2016, 12:52 PM
Grayson Allen-31
Jayson Tatum-30
Amile Jefferson-27
Luke Kennard-25
Matt Jones-24
Frank JAckson-20
Harry Giles-18
Margues Bolden-16
Chase Jeter-6
Everyone else-3

mattman91
10-27-2016, 01:08 PM
Not to toot my own horn, but I won last year's rosterbation contest :cool:

mr. synellinden
10-27-2016, 01:10 PM
I am factoring the possibility/likelihood of a higher number of blowouts affecting average minutes per game across the season. Here goes:

Allen - 32

Jefferson - 30

Tatum - 27

Kennard - 22

Jones - 21

Jackson - 20

Giles - 20

Bolden - 18

Jeter - 8

DeLaurier - 2

House P
10-27-2016, 01:21 PM
So we're three picks in and already have a potential issue, which is that each of the three posters picked for different sets of players. One included White and DeLaurier, one DeLaurier, and one neither (but included "Others"). So let's put some ground rules around this:


Anyone who averages at least 2 minutes per game (80 minutes for the season)* will be graded individually. That is, if you don't make a specific guess for that player, you will be deemed to have guessed 0. That player CANNOT count as "other"
Anyone who averages fewer than 2 minutes per game can count as "other"; however, if you choose to pick individual minutes for someone who ends up under 2 mpg, you can get graded against that choice.

For those of you who have already picked, you are free to revise your choices consistent with these rules.

*Yes, I know what I did there. Knock on wood, etc. Two minutes per game will be the official threshold, not total minutes.

Thanks for clarifying the ground rules.

I was about to post the following prediction:

Nick Pagliuca - 0.5
Others - 199.5

Based on your ground rules, it looks like I'm going to have to go back to the drawing board :)

pfrduke
10-27-2016, 02:09 PM
Allen 30
Jefferson 30
Jones 27
Kennard 26
Tatum 24
Jackson 16
Bolden 18
Giles 19
Jeter 8
White 2
Delaurier 2
Vrankovic 1

This totals 203 minutes.

MarkD83
10-27-2016, 02:49 PM
This totals 203 minutes.

If total minutes = 200 is not part of the ground rules then it makes it easier to guess....

Allen 25
Jefferson 25
Jones 25
Tatum 25
Kennard 25
Jackson 20
Bolden 20
Giles 20
Jeter 15
White 5
Delaurier 5
Vrankovic 5

NSDukeFan
10-27-2016, 03:06 PM
If total minutes = 200 is not part of the ground rules then it makes it easier to guess...

Allen 25
Jefferson 25
Jones 25
Tatum 25
Kennard 25
Jackson 20
Bolden 20
Giles 20
Jeter 15
White 5
Delaurier 5
Vrankovic 5

Then I would go with:
Allen 35
Jefferson 32
Tatum 33
Jones 30
Kennard 28
Giles 28
Jackson 28
Bolden 24
Jeter 22
DeLaurier 15
Vrankovic 8
White 8
Robinson 8
Obi 8
Pagliuca 4
Besser 2
That was a lot easier.

NSDukeFan
10-27-2016, 03:08 PM
Interesting. With the exception of Giles, we're on the same page in terms of minute rank. I would have Giles a lot higher, but I'm so uncertain about his readiness. And based on what Coach K has said, he's gonna be brought along slowly.

I think your prediction for Grayson may be closer than mine and I am an optimist so hoping for huge things from Harry, especially health.

phaedrus
10-27-2016, 03:12 PM
Allen 33
Jones 23
Kennard 25
Jackson 15
Jefferson 32
Tatum 28
Giles 15
Bolden 18
Jeter 9
DeLaurier 2

superdave
10-27-2016, 05:04 PM
Grayson Allen: 34
Jayson Tatum: 30
Amile Jefferson: 29
Luke Kennard: 28
Matt Jones: 23
Harry Giles: 22
Frank Jackson: 18
Marques Bolden: 14
Chase Jeter: 4

sagegrouse
10-27-2016, 05:22 PM
Well, I predict that ten players will average ten minutes per game (10 x 10), fulfilling Sage's definition of a "ten-man rotation." If any of you insist that this is the wrong definition and that some other definition is appropriate for being "in the rotation," I urge you to contact the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers and get an IEEE standard established.

However, having come up with the 10 x 10 prediction, I am going to mull the details over for a day before publishing.

Kindly,
Sage

CameronBlue
10-27-2016, 05:36 PM
Grayson 33
Jefferson 29
Kennard 28
Tatum 25
Jones 18
Giles 17
Jackson 17
Bolden 12
Jeter 12
MP4 9

Ultrarunner
10-27-2016, 06:11 PM
Judging from the posts above, I'm a bit of a contrarian in thinking that Amile will get more minutes than Grayson.

Jefferson 31
Allen 29
Tatum 28
Jones 24
Kennard 22
Jackson 18
Bolden 17
Giles 16
Jeter 12
DeLaurier 2
Vrankovic 1

subzero02
10-27-2016, 06:44 PM
Thanks pfrduke. My minutes as per your instructions:

Grayson Allen: 35
Amile Jefferson: 31
Jayson Tatum: 29
Matt Jones: 25
Luke Kennard: 22
Frank Jackson: 20
Marques Bolden: 17
Harry Giles: 12
Chase Jeter: 5
Other: 4

I really hope your Giles prediction turns out to be laughably inaccurate.

pfrduke
10-27-2016, 07:15 PM
Grayson Allen: 34
Jayson Tatum: 30
Amile Jefferson: 29
Luke Kennard: 28
Matt Jones: 23
Harry Giles: 22
Frank Jackson: 18
Marques Bolden: 14
Chase Jeter: 4

This totals 202 minutes.

pfrduke
10-27-2016, 07:17 PM
Grayson 33
Jefferson 29
Kennard 28
Tatum 25
Jones 18
Giles 17
Jackson 17
Bolden 12
Jeter 12
MP4 9

I don't know what you mean by this, but I'm counting it as "other"

DukieTiger
10-27-2016, 07:22 PM
Allen - 32
Tatum - 29
Jefferson - 27
Jones - 23
Jackson - 22
Kennard - 20
Bolden - 17
Giles - 17
Jeter - 9
Delaurier - 2
Vrankovic - 2

MChambers
10-27-2016, 07:52 PM
This totals 203 minutes.

I figured every other game would go into overtime. Just kidding.

That's what I get for doing this while pretending to work. Will recompute and submit again.

MChambers
10-27-2016, 07:54 PM
Allen 30
Jefferson 30
Jones 27
Kennard 26
Tatum 24
Jackson 16
Bolden 17
Giles 18
Jeter 8
White 2
Delaurier 2

Tappan Zee Devil
10-27-2016, 07:58 PM
This totals 203 minutes.

overtime games?

CDu
10-27-2016, 08:21 PM
Here goes nothing:

Allen: 32
Jefferson: 28
Tatum: 28
Jones: 26
Kennard: 24
Giles: 20 (I am expecting him to miss a few and be brought along leisurely in 2016, then be a major contributor in the spring)
Jackson: 18
Bolden: 16
Jeter: 7
Other: 1

gurufrisbee
10-27-2016, 10:58 PM
I was nearly dead last in this last year. I like to set the bar low.

Allen 33
Amile 27
Tatum 26
Giles 25
Kennard 24
Jones 19
Jackson 18
Bolden 15
Jeter 8
DeLaurier 3
Others 2

kAzE
10-28-2016, 03:36 AM
Grayson Allen - 31
Amile Jefferson - 28
Jayson Tatum - 29
Matt Jones - 24
Harry Giles - 16
Luke Kennard - 24
Frank Jackson - 16
Marques Bolden - 19
Chase Jeter - 6
Javin DeLaurier - 5
Others: 2

Neals384
10-30-2016, 03:31 PM
pfrduke, thanks for getting the contest started and setting the ground rules. I have been out of the country and unable to post so I'm glad we are under way. Yes, I will tabulate.

One clarification to the ground rules - total minutes for an entry do not have to total 200, but, assuming no overtime games, the actual result will total exactly 200. Therefore, an entry with a total other than 200 is, in effect, handicapping itself. Overtime games will affect the total as follows: if there is 1 OT period in 40 games, then the total of all players average minutes will be 200.625; two OT periods, 201.25, and so on. (I'm not expecting any OT, so my entry will total 200.)

Enter as often as you like, up to the deadline set by pfrduke. Only your most recent entry counts.

Bob Green
10-30-2016, 04:10 PM
Grayson Allen - 35
Amile Jefferson - 30
Matt Jones - 30
Jayson Tatum - 22
Luke Kennard - 22
Frank Jackson - 20
Marques Bolden - 20
Harry Giles - 12
Chase Jeter - 5
Javin DeLaurier - 2
Other - 2

devilsince1977
10-30-2016, 08:37 PM
I am worried about Grayson holding up for the whole season with the huge target he has on his back. So I am going to cut his minutes some. This is not K like, but I am going to say no one averages 30 min this year. Chase did not look ready for meaningful minutes Friday night. That gives me a 9 man rotation. I can see Javin getting minutes due to his defensive instincts.

Grayson - 29
Amile - 28
Matt - 19
Jason - 25
Luke - 25
Frank - 19
Marques - 20
Harry - 18
Javin - 9
Chase - 6
Other -2

pfrduke
10-30-2016, 08:45 PM
I am worried about Grayson holding up for the whole season with the huge target he has on his back. So I am going to cut his minutes some. This is not K like, but I am going to say no one averages 30 min this year. Chase did not look ready for meaningful minutes Friday night. That gives me a 9 man rotation. I can see Javin getting minutes due to his defensive instincts.

Grayson - 29
Amile - 28
Matt - 19
Jason - 24
Luke - 25
Frank - 19
Marques - 20
Harry - 18
Javin - 9
Chase - 6
Other -2

This is 199 minutes, so you've got another one to give out if you want.

devilsince1977
10-30-2016, 08:47 PM
Thanks, I bumped Jason another minute.

flyingdutchdevil
10-31-2016, 07:15 AM
Grayson Allen: 35
Amile Jefferson: 31
Jayson Tatum: 29
Matt Jones: 25
Luke Kennard: 22
Frank Jackson: 19
Marques Bolden: 18
Harry Giles: 14
Chase Jeter: 4
Other: 3

Ichabod Drain
10-31-2016, 07:37 AM
I think I'll watch the next exhibition before I make my final entry.

So much to consider. Kennard played 36 minutes in the first game. Obviously that is greatly affected by Tatum being out and Jones only playing three minutes but K did say he's been playing the best since practice started.

jv001
10-31-2016, 07:52 AM
Here goes nothing:
Grayson 32
Amile 26
Matt 22
Jason 26
Luke 24
Frank 20
Marques 20
Harry 18
Javin 5
Chase 5
Others 2

GoDuke and stay healthy!!!!!

Duke79UNLV77
10-31-2016, 11:14 AM
Grayson 33
Amile 28
Kennard 26
Jason 25
Matt 21
Frank 20
Bolden 20
Giles 16
Javin 5
Chase 5
Other 1

superdave
10-31-2016, 02:07 PM
I am two minutes over 200, so I'm sitting Grayson and Jayson a minute each....


Grayson Allen: 33
Jayson Tatum: 29
Amile Jefferson: 29
Luke Kennard: 28
Matt Jones: 23
Harry Giles: 22
Frank Jackson: 18
Marques Bolden: 14
Chase Jeter: 4

mgtr
10-31-2016, 02:38 PM
Well, I guess the price of entry is total humiliation at the end of the season, but, with a new Natty -- who care?

Allen 30
Kennard 30
Tatum 30
Jefferson 25
Bolden 20
Jackson 20
Jones 20
Giles 15
DeLaurier 5
Jeter 4
Other 1

allenmurray
10-31-2016, 02:40 PM
There will be 40 minutes in each game.
There will be no overtime games featuring Duke.
Duke will play in 40 games.
There will be 1600 minutes played.

sagegrouse
10-31-2016, 02:49 PM
Here's my 10 x 10 vote. I believe K will get religion, given the tremendous amount of talent available, and run a rotation more like Team USA. But, of course, I've been wrong before. What also shapes my vote is my skepticism on the official reports* on Harry Giles. I think he will be out a good while and play reduced MPG when he returns -- I give him 12 for the year. Jayson Tatum, I believe, will typically play 30 MPG, but will miss games and playing time early in the season due to his foot issues.



30 Grayson Allen
25 Luke Kennard
25 Jayson Tatum
20 Amile Jefferson
20 Matt Jones
20 Marques Bolden
20 Frank Jackson
12 Harry Giles
10 Chase Jeter
10 Javin DeLaurier
4 Antonio Vrankovic
4 Other
200

Kindly,
Sage Grouse
* Sorry "official reports," but I have painful memories of past reports of the availability of Kyrie, Ryan, and Amile. I ain't playing that game any more -- I think Harry Giles will be a much reduced presence on the 2017 Devils

ChillinDuke
10-31-2016, 02:51 PM
Amile - 30 minutes
Grayson - 29
Matt - 27
Jayson - 26
Luke - 26
Marquise - 20
Frank - 18
Harry - 18
Chase - 5
Javin - 1

- Chillin

ACCBBallFan
11-01-2016, 03:00 AM
I will accept the critique that Bolden's minutes in a 7 man rotation are too low. By default they have to come from Jackson.

In an 8-man rotation, without even considering Jeter, DeLaurier or White or Antonio etc., it goes something like this.

Even though coach K does not go by position, his best center is Bolden and his best PG is Jackson, but there are 6 better players with respect to experience and talent. There will be situations to maximize Bolden and other situations to maximize Jackson.

At center, Jefferson and Bolden in some combination total 40 MPG.

At PG, Jackson and nominally Jones though it could be Kennard or even Allen, in some combination total 40 MPG.

Allen, Tatum and Giles probably play at least 30 MPG and Kennard at least 25, leaving only about 5 MPG to spread across Jeter and coach K tendency to play Amile and Matt more.

Jefferson (25) / Bolden (15)

Giles (30)/ other 10 split across Tatum (5) and Jeter(5)

Tatum (25) / Allen (15)

Allen (15) / Kennard (25)

Jones (25)/ Jackson (15)

so the totals pre-adjustment for Giles in early season DNP are:

30 each for Giles, Tatum and Allen (sub-total 90)

25 each for Jefferson, Jones and Kennard (75 more to sub-total 165)

15 each for Bolden and Jackson (30 more to sub-total 195)

5 to play with across Jeter plus captains plus DeLaurier/White

By the rules, Giles would nominally be less than 30 over course of season, perhaps Tatum also, leaving a few more to play with across Jeter plus captains plus DeLaurier/White, or Bolden or Jackson.

I know Jeter played more than 5 MPG last year and comes back more experienced and stronger gave some of his minutes to Bolden.

Let's face it, if pinch came to shove coach K could do very well with a 6-man rotation of Jefferson, Giles, Tatum, Allen, Jones and Kennard and this year he has the added luxury of a very good center in Bolden and a very good PG in Jackson.

Over the course of the season Giles 30 reduced to 20
Allen 30
Tatum 30
Jefferson 27
Jones 27
Kennard 25
Bolden 15
Jackson 15
Jeter 08
DaLaurier 02
White 01

Spanarkel
11-01-2016, 07:40 AM
There will be 40 minutes in each game.
There will be no overtime games featuring Duke.
Duke will play in 40 games.
There will be 1600 minutes played.

8,000 minutes in this magical season of 40 games.

Spanarkel
11-01-2016, 07:55 AM
Grayson 33
Jayson 31
Amile 30
Matt 26
Luke 23
Harry 18
Frank 14
Marques 11
Chase 7
Javin 5
Jack 2

arnie
11-01-2016, 09:17 AM
Grayson - 32
Amile - 28
Matt - 26
Luke - 26
Jayson - 26
Harry - 25
Marques - 19
Javin - 10
Chase - 5
White - 1
Justin - 1
Frank - 1

NSDukeFan
11-01-2016, 10:38 AM
Grayson - 32
Amile - 28
Matt - 26
Luke - 26
Jayson - 26
Harry - 25
Marques - 19
Javin - 10
Chase - 5
White - 1
Justin - 1
Frank - 1

I'm guessing you're not expecting Frank to be the starting point guard?

arnie
11-01-2016, 10:57 AM
I'm guessing you're not expecting Frank to be the starting point guard?

I is a idiot. Will revise later. Thanks

Six
11-01-2016, 11:21 AM
Really struggled with guards - strong arguments why Coach K won't sit of of the 4 for long so I took easiest path and gave them extra minutes. I haven't really bought into Tatum at the 4 given the deep pool of quality big men - think it will be more about it being tough to keep Allen, Kennard, Jones and Jackson on the bench for long.

Grayson Allen 25
Amile Jefferson 29
Matt Jones 22
Jason Tatum 28
Luke Kennard 22
Frank Jackson 21
Marques Bolden 23
Harry Giles 20
Javin DeLaurier 4
Chase Jeter 4
Jack White 1
Antonio Vrankovic 1

arnie
11-01-2016, 11:35 AM
I'm guessing you're not expecting Frank to be the starting point guard?

Actually forgot Frank entirely - referred to Vrank the Tank as Frank. Maybe I should use the Kedsy rule of only 6-7 players. Revised prognostication.

Grayson - 32
Amile - 28
Jayson - 26
Matt - 22
Luke - 22
Harry - 24
Frank - 18
Marques - 16
Javin - 7
Chase - 3
White - 1
Justin - 1
Antonio - 1

pfrduke
11-01-2016, 11:57 AM
Actually forgot Frank entirely - referred to Vrank the Tank as Frank. Maybe I should use the Kedsy rule of only 6-7 players. Revised prognostication.

Grayson - 32
Amile - 28
Jayson - 26
Matt - 22
Luke - 22
Harry - 24
Frank - 18
Marques - 16
Javin - 7
Chase - 3
White - 1
Justin - 1
Antonio - 1

Just FYI, this is 201 minutes.

flyingdutchdevil
11-01-2016, 11:59 AM
Really struggled with guards - strong arguments why Coach K won't sit of of the 4 for long so I took easiest path and gave them extra minutes. I haven't really bought into Tatum at the 4 given the deep pool of quality big men - think it will be more about it being tough to keep Allen, Kennard, Jones and Jackson on the bench for long.

Grayson Allen 25
Amile Jefferson 29
Matt Jones 22
Jason Tatum 28
Luke Kennard 22
Frank Jackson 21
Marques Bolden 23
Harry Giles 20
Javin DeLaurier 4
Chase Jeter 4
Jack White 1
Antonio Vrankovic 1

Wow. First forecast I've seen that has Allen below 30mpg.

Surprised, given a) Allen is the POY Pre-Season Favorite, b) Coach K loves giving his best players plenty of minutes, and c) Grayson may end up playing the most PG, a position that we are lacking in.

Six
11-01-2016, 03:49 PM
Wow. First forecast I've seen that has Allen below 30mpg.

Surprised, given a) Allen is the POY Pre-Season Favorite, b) Coach K loves giving his best players plenty of minutes, and c) Grayson may end up playing the most PG, a position that we are lacking in.

Fair points - I've heard Grayson is pretty good and agree with a and b and that <30 minutes is a bit of a contrarian choice. I think I started Grayson at 35 minutes in my first draft of minutes (added to 230 if I remember correctly) and certainly wouldn't be surprised if he ended up near mid 30's. I haven't liked what I've seen from him so far (limited sample size), considered it a red flag that he sat out the open practice and recognizes his playing style is likely to result in some bumps and bruises that might limit his time. I think Kennard will be tough to bench if he's on (especially if Grayson isn't) and think Matt Jones and Frank Jackson both bring something to the table that is unique and Coach K likes. I haven't really been able to make a fair assessment if Kennard or Allen have improved defensively which would change things as well. Actually, I think Tatum is my biggest risk to limited minutes for Grayson - my guesses assume Tatum is healthy, commands star playing time and really only plays the 3 - very limited time at 4. Any change there could free up a lot more time for Allen, Kennard, Jones and Jackson. My 2nd biggest risk is that Jackson doesn't really play on ball defense like I expect and can't pick up PG spot very well - ends up with role much smaller than Thornton last year.

I may be crazy for relying on these 2 freshmen but that's part of the fun.

Newton_14
11-01-2016, 08:42 PM
Fair points - I've heard Grayson is pretty good and agree with a and b and that <30 minutes is a bit of a contrarian choice. I think I started Grayson at 35 minutes in my first draft of minutes (added to 230 if I remember correctly) and certainly wouldn't be surprised if he ended up near mid 30's. I haven't liked what I've seen from him so far (limited sample size), considered it a red flag that he sat out the open practice and recognizes his playing style is likely to result in some bumps and bruises that might limit his time. I think Kennard will be tough to bench if he's on (especially if Grayson isn't) and think Matt Jones and Frank Jackson both bring something to the table that is unique and Coach K likes. I haven't really been able to make a fair assessment if Kennard or Allen have improved defensively which would change things as well. Actually, I think Tatum is my biggest risk to limited minutes for Grayson - my guesses assume Tatum is healthy, commands star playing time and really only plays the 3 - very limited time at 4. Any change there could free up a lot more time for Allen, Kennard, Jones and Jackson. My 2nd biggest risk is that Jackson doesn't really play on ball defense like I expect and can't pick up PG spot very well - ends up with role much smaller than Thornton last year.

I may be crazy for relying on these 2 freshmen but that's part of the fun.

Just a reminder that Thornton played 26mpg last year. I am thinking Frank garners somewhere between 19-23 mpg.. but I am assuming Tatum plays more than token minutes at the 4. The wild card that could screw everyone up is Giles. If he is 100%, remains that way, and plays anywhere close to his hype level, then that will for sure put Tatum at the 3 for most of his minutes, unless K falls in love with a small line up of Tatum at the 4 with Giles and Amile rotating at the 5 for significant minutes.

There are just so many ways this could play out and personally I find it both fascinating and exciting to watch playout. Giles, Bolden, Chase, Frank..... as individuals could end up playing more or less than most people including me are guessing....

Wahoo2000
11-01-2016, 09:16 PM
In addition to keeping the stats to find an eventual "winner" of the minutes contest, you guys should do an average of all entries to find out how close the board is as a group in their projections. And which individual person is also closest to the "groupthink" average.

Or you could just say, "that's too much work, Wahoo. Get the hell outta here." ;-)

ACCBBallFan
11-01-2016, 11:41 PM
I was actually fairly impressed with Frank Jackson ability to fight through screens, albeit vs. VA State. DeLaurier had some athletic blocks, unfortunately after his man had initially blown by him.

From a best "5 "maximized together perspective, irrespective of best C and best PG position, due to experience at start/end of game, play these 5 in three 4 minute bursts per half.

24 Jefferson at C
24 Giles at PF
24 Tatum at SF
24 Jones at PG

16 Allen/ 8 Kennard at SG to save them for scoring on "Second 5 starters"

Jones and Jefferson are not necessarily scorers, so while the "best 5" rest as a unit, Allen and Kennard play with Bolden and Jackson at a PF by committee to add more scoring to the "second 5 starters" play two 4 minute bursts per half.

16 Bolden at C
16 Allen at SF
16 Kennard at SG
16 Jackson at PG

08 Jeter, 04 Giles, 04 Tatum at PF to rest Giles and Tatum some

So that would be close to a Blue squad for 24 and a White squad for 16 - not a uniform color purist so it may be White for 24 and Blue for 16.
Essentially sub at every 4 min timeout.

Depending on the opposing center or opposing PG strength/weakness, swap Bolden for Jefferson or swap Jackson for Jones onto starting/ending unit.

-------------------------------------------------------

Until Giles gets back from injury in and in shape, not fair in practice 5 vs 5 for Jackson to only have Kennard (or Jones or Allen) with White, Jeter and Antonio.

Once he's back though

Can mix and match Jefferson, Giles, Bolden and Jeter/Tatum and mix in Antonio and Robinson

Can mix and match Allen, Jones, Kennard and Jackson at combos.

Tatum vs DeLaurier/White/Robinson but mix in Jefferson/Allen/Jones for "experienced" challenge.

--------------------

So revised math over course of season is

32 Allen
28 Tatum
25 Jefferson (but 24 after Giles returns)
25 Jones (but 24 after Giles returns)
24 Kennard
20 Giles (but 28 at tourney time)
16 Bolden
16 Jackson
11 Jeter (but 08 after Giles returns)
02 DeLaurier, then none after Giles is back and in shape
01 White, then none
----
200 assuming no or minimal average OT

SenatorClayDavis
11-02-2016, 07:07 AM
Allen 31
Jefferson 28
Tatum 27
Jones 25
Jackson 23
Kennard 23
Giles 22
Bolden 15
Jeter 4
DeLaurier 2

ChillinDuke
11-02-2016, 08:02 AM
Wow. First forecast I've seen that has Allen below 30mpg.

Surprised, given a) Allen is the POY Pre-Season Favorite, b) Coach K loves giving his best players plenty of minutes, and c) Grayson may end up playing the most PG, a position that we are lacking in.

Ahem. Post #37. :D

Although I'm considering revising, I think I may hold for now.

- Chillin

flyingdutchdevil
11-02-2016, 08:53 AM
Ahem. Post #37. :D

Although I'm considering revising, I think I may hold for now.

- Chillin

The backcourt is a very interesting debate. Luke, Grayson, and Jones are deserve minutes, and Jackson has arguably the most potential and the best balance between offense/defense. Also, we know that Tatum is going to play plenty of 4. I think his position, for the first half of the season, will be primarily 3, but Coach K is Coach K and will move Tatum to primarily the 4. Hence, in the first half of the season, I see 85-90 minutes available across Luke, Grayson, Jones, and Jackson and around 90-100 minutes during the second half of the season.

Grayson, despite early struggles against Matt Jones and a meaningless game with clearly subpar talent, will get minutes. He's too good and too smart to be kept off the floor. The only think keeping him off the floor are injuries (oh God, please no) and foul trouble. Also, he's the first player to leave the court in blow out games. So, I think ~37 minutes in tight games and ~26 minutes in blowouts.

Luke and Jones are much harder to figure out. One is a defensive specialist and the other is an offensive specialist (if you put them together, you get an NCAA Player of the Year). Jones has experience; Kennard has unlimited range. They both don't need to be ball-dominant to be successful, which is excellent when you put them in with JayGray-son. Which side of the game is lagging behind the other - defense or offense - will dictate which player has more minutes.

And for Jackson? No idea. He could average 12 minutes and I wouldn't be surprised. He could average 28 minutes and I wouldn't be surprised (okay, I'd be a little surprised). This is the beauty of depth; so many options.

Green Wave Dukie
11-06-2016, 04:37 PM
Tatum - 29
Allen - 29
Jones - 28
Jefferson - 26
Kennard - 23
Jackson - 21
Giles - 20
Bolden - 17
Jeter - 5
Others - 2

DukieInBrasil
11-06-2016, 09:10 PM
i waited until after the exhibition games, and i gotta say, the minutes played in the 2 games didn't shed a whole lot of light about how much time guys are gonna get. 2 of the potential stars of the team didn't play due to injury, one guy who's not going to star didn't play due to recovering from injury, 1 starter didn't play hardly at all in the first game but in the 2nd game played the way you would expect a beloved of K to play in such a game. 1 starter got sorta injured in the first game and played a little less due to that. And then one guy didn't play at all in the 2nd game after a very tantalizing 1st game, even though he wasn't injured.
So:
Allen 31
Jones 28
Jefferson 25
Kennard 26
Tatum 24
Jackson 20
Giles 16
Bolden 15
Jeter 9
DeLaurier 3
Obi/Vrank/
Robinson/White 3

luburch
11-07-2016, 06:01 AM
Allen - 32
Tatum - 30
Jefferson - 28
Kennard - 27
Jones - 24
Jackson - 18
Bolden - 17
Giles - 15
Jeter - 7
DeLaurier - 2

Spanarkel
11-07-2016, 08:05 AM
NO ONE is giving Jack White more than 2 minutes per game(, except DukieinBrasil with 3). Is it his quickness/strength/unfamiliarity with American hoops/etc? He has made all 4 of his 3 point attempts(2/2 in CTC and 2/2 against Augustana). I know he traveled a long way to play for Duke: could he be Taylor King without the baggage? Any thoughts would be most appreciated.

flyingdutchdevil
11-07-2016, 08:15 AM
NO ONE is giving Jack White more than 2 minutes per game(, except DukieinBrasil with 3). Is it his quickness/strength/unfamiliarity with American hoops/etc? He has made all 4 of his 3 point attempts(2/2 in CTC and 2/2 against Augustana). I know he traveled a long way to play for Duke: could he be Taylor King without the baggage? Any thoughts would be most appreciated.

You want to add another player to get minutes for a coach who is notorious for short rotations? That's the main issue. It isn't White's readiness nor talent as much as it is his lack of exposure and the fact that he'd have to leapfrog 2-3 other players to get minutes.

He is a player that many have a lot of faith in to develop into a rotation player possibly next year and starter as an upperclassmen. But DBR, correctly so, isn't putting much equity into him playing minutes this year.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-07-2016, 08:21 AM
DBR, correctly so, isn't putting much equity into him playing minutes this year.

Well, I agree with all you analysis up to this last line. We will have to wait and see how correct we all are. It could be the year that K surprises us!

(Well, it COULD be...)

flyingdutchdevil
11-07-2016, 08:22 AM
Well, I agree with all you analysis up to this last line. We will have to wait and see how correct we all are. It could be the year that K surprises us!

(Well, it COULD be...)

Kate Upton COULD arrive on my doorstep. But, you know...

devildeac
11-07-2016, 08:36 AM
Kate Upton COULD arrive on my doorstep. But, you know...

I'll let you know when she leaves my condo...

whereinthehellami
11-07-2016, 08:55 AM
Injuries make this format of minutes forecasting a tough one. With that said:

Allen - 30
Jones - 28
Jefferson - 26
Tatum - 26
Kennard - 24
Bolden - 22
Jackson - 18
Giles - 14
Jeter - 8
DeLaurier - 2
Others - 2

flyingdutchdevil
11-07-2016, 09:06 AM
I'll let you know when she leaves my condo...

How dare you!

I can't believe Kate would do that to me...

This must be what it feels like when a UNC athlete goes to a class with a real professor: gutted, confused, and likely in denial

Spanarkel
11-07-2016, 09:22 AM
You want to add another player to get minutes for a coach who is notorious for short rotations? That's the main issue. It isn't White's readiness nor talent as much as it is his lack of exposure and the fact that he'd have to leapfrog 2-3 other players to get minutes.

He is a player that many have a lot of faith in to develop into a rotation player possibly next year and starter as an upperclassmen. But DBR, correctly so, isn't putting much equity into him playing minutes this year.


Thank you for the reasoned response. Obviously 4 attempts from three point land is a small sample size, but IF White gets the chance AND continues to shoot a high percentage(>/=50%), then he should get "some" minutes, especially on nights when the team is a collective 5/24(hopefully not many of these)from 3, but I guess "If IFs and BUTs were candied nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas."

atoomer0881
11-07-2016, 09:47 AM
This was perhaps one of the toughest things I've ever tried to predict. This is all based on the hope that we can play 40 games this year... :-)

Grayson Allen - 30
Luke Kennard - 25
Jayson Tatum - 24
Matt Jones - 24
Amile Jefferson 23
Frank Jackson - 20
Marques Bolden - 18
Harry Giles 17
Chase Jeter - 9
Javin DeLaurier - 8
Others - 2

devildeac
11-07-2016, 04:52 PM
Might be some re-allocation of minutes guessing with the most recent injury :mad: .

arnie
11-07-2016, 05:57 PM
My revised (couldn't add to 200 earlier) and final prediction based on latest news:

Amile - 39
Grayson - 39
Luke - 39
Frank - 39
Matt - 39
Harry - 1
Jeter - 1
Jayson - 1
Marques - 1
Javin - 1

Fish80
11-07-2016, 06:27 PM
Allen, Grayson 25
Bolden, Marques 18
DeLaurier, Javin 6
Giles, Harry 21
Jackson, Frank 20
Jefferson, Amile 24
Jeter, Chase 18
Jones, Matt 19
Kennard, Luke 23
Obi, Sean 1
Robinson, Justin 1
Tatum, Jayson 22
Vrankovic, Antonio 1
White, Jack :D 1

Neals384
11-07-2016, 08:00 PM
Here's my entry:



Tatum
25


Giles
18


Jeter
3


Allen
32


Kennard
26


DeLaurier
2


Jones
28


Jackson
17


Bolden
20


Jefferson
28


All Other
1


Total
200

DukieInBrasil
11-07-2016, 08:50 PM
Thank you for the reasoned response. Obviously 4 attempts from three point land is a small sample size, but IF White gets the chance AND continues to shoot a high percentage(>/=50%), then he should get "some" minutes, especially on nights when the team is a collective 5/24(hopefully not many of these)from 3, but I guess "If IFs and BUTs were candied nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas."

Semi Ojeleye shot over 50% 3FGs his Fr. year and hardly played at all, well over half the games as DNP. Jack looked fine in all of the games up til now, but he is already behind several guys for PT.
Also, i want to point out that i did not predict White to play 3 mpg, but that the combination of Obi/Vrank/Robinson/White would play 3 mpg, which was my way of parceling out 3 mpg even though none of them would average the 2mpg necessary to qualify, per the OPs rules.

cbarry
11-07-2016, 08:53 PM
Revised minutes prediction given the bad news today on Bolden... These supersede my original picks.

Grayson Allen - 30
Jayson Tatum - 30
Luke Kennard - 29
Frank Jackson - 28
Amile Jefferson - 26
Matt Jones - 25
Harry Giles - 18
Chase Jeter - 6
Javin DeLaurier - 3
Marques Bolden - 3
Jack White- 2

DukieTiger
11-08-2016, 04:32 AM
Allen - 32
Tatum - 29
Jefferson - 27
Jones - 23
Jackson - 22
Kennard - 20
Bolden - 13
Giles - 17
Jeter - 11
Delaurier - 4
Vrankovic - 2

Revised

luburch
11-08-2016, 05:45 AM
Allen - 32
Tatum - 30
Jefferson - 28
Kennard - 27
Jones - 24
Jackson - 18
Bolden - 17
Giles - 15
Jeter - 7
DeLaurier - 2

I'd like to make a slight amendment to this, because of the Bolden injury. Assuming he isn't out too long..

Here is my new entry:

Allen - 32
Tatum - 30
Jefferson - 28
Kennard - 27
Jones - 24
Jackson - 18
Bolden - 14
Giles - 15
Jeter - 10
DeLaurier - 2

NSDukeFan
11-08-2016, 05:54 AM
Grayson Allen - 30
Amile Jefferson - 28
Jayson Tatum - 27
Matt Jones - 25
Harry Giles - 23
Luke Kennard - 22
Frank Jackson - 20
Marques Bolden - 15
Chase Jeter - 8
Javin DeLaurier - 2

Antonio Vrankovic, Sean Obi, Jack White, Justin Robinson, Nick Pagliuca, Brennan Besser hopefully some, but I don't know anyone I would take minutes from, even though I always hope to see the bench guys play more. Maybe, some overtime games so we can go over 200 minutes per game? No, that's too stressful.

Slight amendment to my projections with the latest information:

Grayson Allen - 30
Amile Jefferson - 28
Jayson Tatum - 27
Matt Jones - 25
Harry Giles - 22
Luke Kennard - 23
Frank Jackson - 20
Marques Bolden - 14
Chase Jeter - 8
Javin DeLaurier - 2
Jack White - 1

Spanarkel
11-08-2016, 06:14 AM
Also, i want to point out that i did not predict White to play 3 mpg, but that the combination of Obi/Vrank/Robinson/White would play 3 mpg, which was my way of parceling out 3 mpg even though none of them would average the 2mpg necessary to qualify, per the OPs rules.



Sorry, my mistake.

David Bunkley
11-08-2016, 09:36 AM
Grayson Allen-29
Jayson Tatum-27
Luke Kennard-26
Amile Jefferson-25
Matt Jones-25
Frank Jackson-19
Harry Giles-18
Marques Bolden-15
Chase Jeter -10
Javin DeLaurier-4
Jack White-1
Others-1

kAzE
11-08-2016, 12:22 PM
Revising my entry as well, given the new injury news . . .

Grayson Allen - 31
Amile Jefferson - 30
Jayson Tatum - 26
Matt Jones - 24
Harry Giles - 15
Luke Kennard - 27
Frank Jackson - 15
Marques Bolden - 16
Chase Jeter - 6
Javin DeLaurier - 8
Others: 2

whereinthehellami
11-08-2016, 02:05 PM
Revision:(:

Allen - 30
Jones - 28
Jefferson - 27
Kennard - 26
Tatum - 24
Jackson - 19
Bolden - 17
Giles - 15
Jeter - 8
DeLaurier - 3
Others - 3

Spanarkel
11-09-2016, 07:47 AM
[QUOTE=DukieInBrasil;922738]Semi Ojeleye shot over 50% 3FGs his Fr. year and hardly played at all, well over half the games as DNP.


Ojeleye played 80 minutes total in '13-'14, which averages to 2.28mpg over the course of the 35-game season. My point is that Jack White appears, on first blush, to be a capable 3-point shooter(as well as not a huge defensive liability), and he WILL play "some" minutes this year because unfortunately there undoubtedly will be games when the team's primary outside shooters are firing blanks. What "some" minutes for JW means remains to be seen.

flyingdutchdevil
11-09-2016, 07:50 AM
Grayson Allen: 34
Amile Jefferson: 31
Jayson Tatum: 29
Matt Jones: 25
Luke Kennard: 22
Frank Jackson: 18
Harry Giles: 17
Marques Bolden: 16
Chase Jeter: 5
Other: 3

devilsince1977
11-09-2016, 08:40 AM
I am worried about Grayson holding up for the whole season with the huge target he has on his back. So I am going to cut his minutes some. This is not K like, but I am going to say no one averages 30 min this year. Chase did not look ready for meaningful minutes Friday night. That gives me a 9 man rotation. I can see Javin getting minutes due to his defensive instincts.

Grayson - 29
Amile - 28
Matt - 19
Jason - 25
Luke - 25
Frank - 19
Marques - 20
Harry - 18
Javin - 9
Chase - 6
Other -2

So much for no 30 minute MPG.

REVISED
Grayson - 31
Amile - 30
Luke - 25
Jason - 24
Matt - 22
Frank - 20
Chase - 13
Javin - 8
Marques - 14
Harry - 11
Other - 2

luvdahops
11-09-2016, 01:06 PM
Allen 32
Tatum 29
Jefferson 28
Jones 25
Kennard 25
Giles 20
Jackson 17
Bolden 15
Jeter 5
Others 4 combined

DukieInBrasil
11-09-2016, 09:00 PM
So much for no 30 minute MPG.

REVISED
Grayson - 31
Amile - 30
Luke - 25
Jayson - 24
Matt - 22
Frank - 20
Chase - 13
Javin - 8
Marques - 14
Harry - 11
Other - 2

fixed it for you

jv001
11-10-2016, 06:16 AM
Here goes nothing:
Grayson 32
Amile 26
Matt 22
Jason 26
Luke 24
Frank 20
Marques 20
Harry 18
Javin 5
Chase 5
Others 2

GoDuke and stay healthy!!!!!

Grayson 32
Amile 30
Matt 24
Jason 26
Luke 25
Frank 20
Marques 15
Harry 16
Javin 5
Chase 5
Others 2

Revised. GoDuke!

notice I left off "stay healthy".

mgtr
11-10-2016, 06:25 AM
Final revision

Allen 30
Kennard 30
Tatum 30
Jefferson 25
Jones 22
Jackson 20
Bolden 16
Giles 15
Jeter 7
DeLaurier 4
Other 1

My major change was to switch some minutes from Bolden to Jeter. Even now, I may be giving short shrift to Jeter, but I will live it.

Six
11-10-2016, 08:36 AM
Really struggled with guards - strong arguments why Coach K won't sit of of the 4 for long so I took easiest path and gave them extra minutes. I haven't really bought into Tatum at the 4 given the deep pool of quality big men - think it will be more about it being tough to keep Allen, Kennard, Jones and Jackson on the bench for long.

Grayson Allen 25
Amile Jefferson 29
Matt Jones 22
Jason Tatum 28
Luke Kennard 22
Frank Jackson 21
Marques Bolden 23
Harry Giles 20
Javin DeLaurier 4
Chase Jeter 4
Jack White 1
Antonio Vrankovic 1



Revised:
Grayson Allen 27
Amile Jefferson 29
Matt Jones 22
Jason Tatum 27
Luke Kennard 22
Frank Jackson 20
Marques Bolden 20
Harry Giles 20
Javin DeLaurier 4
Chase Jeter 7
Jack White 1
Antonio Vrankovic 1

DukieInBrasil
11-10-2016, 10:05 AM
Revised:
Grayson Allen 27
Amile Jefferson 29
Matt Jones 22
Jason Tatum 27
Luke Kennard 22
Frank Jackson 20
Marques Bolden 20
Harry Giles 20
Javin DeLaurier 4
Chase Jeter 7
Jack White 1
Antonio Vrankovic 1

That seems awfully optimistic. First of all both are injured currently and will miss an unknown number of games, which will drag their averages down. Second, neither will be in game shape when they return and will start at some level well below 20 mpg. Third, they're both big men on a team that is deep at the PF/C positions, so unless they're playing together a lot, there's no way they'll both average 20mpg for the season. Fourth, big men tend to play fewer total minutes anyway, especially on a team that is capable of running as much as Duke.
I see that your minutes distribution among the G/SF is fairly egalitarian though.

Spanarkel
11-10-2016, 11:54 AM
i waited until after the exhibition games, and i gotta say, the minutes played in the 2 games didn't shed a whole lot of light about how much time guys are gonna get. 2 of the potential stars of the team didn't play due to injury, one guy who's not going to star didn't play due to recovering from injury, 1 starter didn't play hardly at all in the first game but in the 2nd game played the way you would expect a beloved of K to play in such a game. 1 starter got sorta injured in the first game and played a little less due to that. And then one guy didn't play at all in the 2nd game after a very tantalizing 1st game, even though he wasn't injured.
So:
Allen 31
Jones 28
Jefferson 25
Kennard 26
Tatum 24
Jackson 20
Giles 16
Bolden 15
Jeter 9
DeLaurier 3
Obi/Vrank/
Robinson/White 3


Your picks are awesome, but in my opinion Jayson will command more than 24mpg with his offensive arsenal.

devildeac
11-10-2016, 12:13 PM
Allen-30
Jackson-16
Jones-30
Kennard-24
Tatum-32
Giles-18
Jeter-8
Jefferson-28
Bolden-12
DeLaurier-2

My original, unpublished, prize-winning #s (:rolleyes:) went down the toilet with the scope to Giles' knee and the "lower leg" injury to Bolden :(.

southgater
11-10-2016, 01:40 PM
Grayson Allen - 31
Jayson Tatum - 29
Luke Kennard - 28
Amile Jefferson - 27
Matt Jones - 24
Harry Giles - 19
Frank Jackson - 16
Marques Bolden - 13
Chase Jeter - 7
Javin DeLaurier - 5
Jack White - 1

DukieInBrasil
11-10-2016, 06:13 PM
Your picks are awesome, but in my opinion Jayson will command more than 24mpg with his offensive arsenal.

i like the reports i'm hearing about Jayson, but i just know how K likes defense, and he's got a plethora of guys who know how to play Duke D better than him. K's gonna give Grayson every opportunity to earn POY honors, so i don't see him playing less than 30mpg. K likes senior leadership and won't keep Sr Jones or Sr Jefferson on the bench all that much either. Maybe i exaggerated Kennard's minutes, but he played 26 mpg last year, so i thought that was a reasonable guess. My bet is we'll play small until both Giles and Bolden are back and Jayson might get minutes instead of Jeter during that time. Once both B&G are back i think Jayson plays almost only at the 3 (ex-SF), and that his minutes will contract. I hope there's no lingering effect from what kept Jayson out of the exhibitions, but that might also be a drag on his minutes initially. It's all just guesses anyway. Maybe the Fr. this year will be as composed, clutch and cool under pressure as the 2015 Fr. were and have much bigger roles than i'm imagining for them!

Furniture
11-10-2016, 08:42 PM
Grayson Allen - 28
Jayson Tatum - 27
Luke Kennard - 24
Amile Jefferson - 25
Matt Jones - 25
Harry Giles - 23
Frank Jackson - 16
Marques Bolden - 15
Chase Jeter - 7
Javin DeLaurier - 8
Jack White - 2

Neals384
11-11-2016, 09:03 AM
Last chance to enter this contest. Entries close when the lineup is announced tonight. Don't forget, winner gets a barrel of sporks!

sagegrouse
11-11-2016, 09:16 AM
Last chance to enter this contest. Entries close when the lineup is announced tonight. Don't forget, winner gets a barrel of sporks!

I'm sticking with my 10 x 10 forecast -- ten players averaging 10 minutes per Duke game. Many of the others are coming close to my projections -- unfortunately because of mounting injuries. The only injury that figured in my calculation was Harry Giles, in that I think he will have reduced games and reduced minutes per actual game played because of his current and past medical issues (well, to be truthful, I don't believe anything coming out of the Duke program about his availability).

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-11-2016, 09:29 AM
I'm sticking with my 10 x 10 forecast -- ten players averaging 10 minutes per Duke game. Many of the others are coming close to my projections -- unfortunately because of mounting injuries. The only injury that figured in my calculation was Harry Giles, in that I think he will have reduced games and reduced minutes per actual game played because of his current and past medical issues (well, to be truthful, I don't believe anything coming out of the Duke program about his availability).

Pretty sure 10 players playing ten minutes a game leaves you with no one on the floor in the second half - or will we just be THAT FAR ahead?

elvis14
11-11-2016, 12:17 PM
Grayson Allen - 32
Amile Jefferson - 30
Luke Kennard - 26
Jayson Tatum - 25
Matt Jones - 26
Harry Giles - 14
Frank Jackson - 17
Marques Bolden - 14
Chase Jeter - 7
Javin DeLaurier - 7
Others: - 2

Wow this is hard. Grayson is just too good to not play 30+ minutes. And Amile will lead us on the defensive end, so 30 for him too. After that, who knows. There's about 300 minutes of talent trying to squeeze into a 200 minute bucket.

House P
11-11-2016, 03:19 PM
Here are my picks.

I was going to try to stand out by predicting < 15 minutes per game for one or more of Grayson, Amile, Luke, and Matt. My rationale is that I would have a better chance winning by predicting (guessing) an unexpected injury to one of these core players, but I just can't bring myself to do that.

Grayson Allen - 33
Jayson Tatum - 31
Amile Jefferson - 30
Luke Kennard - 26
Matt Jones - 26
Harry Giles - 17
Frank Jackson - 13
Marques Bolden - 13
Chase Jeter - 7
Javin DeLaurier - 3
Others: - 2

That adds up to to 201 mpg to account for at least one overtime game.

Troublemaker
11-11-2016, 03:43 PM
I went with multiples of 5 for my minutes last season and finished in second place. Will try it again.

30 - Allen
30 - Tatum
30 - Jefferson
25 - Jones
25 - Kennard
20 - Jackson
15 - Giles
15 - Bolden
5 - Jeter
2 - White
2 - DeLaurier
1 - Vrankovic

timmy c
11-11-2016, 05:27 PM
I hope I am in time to register my guess....
Jayson Tatum 31
Grayson Allen 30
Matt Jones 29
Luke Kennard 28
Amile Jefferson 25
Marques Bolden 12
Frank Jackson 19
Harry Giles 17
Chase Jeter 6.5
Javin Delaurier 2
Jack White 0.5

CDu
11-11-2016, 08:43 PM
Jeez, a guy goes on vacation for a week and comes back to find out that another injury occurred. I don't remember what I said, but I suspect my estimates for Bolden are now too high. Oh well. Hope all three return fully healthy at least in advance of ACC play.

sagegrouse
11-11-2016, 08:58 PM
Pretty sure 10 players playing ten minutes a game leaves you with no one on the floor in the second half - or will we just be THAT FAR ahead?

Ten players playing at least ten minutes per Duke game equals 10 x 10. K just said "no timetable" on the return of the three freshmen. I think I've seen this movie before, and now it's a triple-header.

Kindly,
Sage

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-12-2016, 05:42 AM
Ten players playing at least ten minutes per Duke game equals 10 x 10. K just said "no timetable" on the return of the three freshmen. I think I've seen this movie before, and now it's a triple-header.

Kindly,
Sage

Ah so... you mean ten guys get AT LEAST ten minutes. My apologies; rereading your post, that makes much more sense.

Sorry, it has been a stressful week.

pfrduke
11-16-2016, 10:34 AM
For posterity, here are people's picks - please let me know if I got anyone's wrong. We'll check in before conference play starts and at the end of the regular season:




Allen
Jefferson
Tatum
Kennard
Jones
Jackson
Giles
Bolden
Jeter
DeLaurier
Other
White
Vrankovic
Robinson
Obi



flyingdutchdevil
34
31
29
22
25
18
17
16
5
0
3
0
0
0
0
200


NSDukeFan
30
28
27
23
25
20
22
14
8
2
0
1
0
0
0
200


cbarry
30
26
30
29
25
28
18
3
6
3
0
2
0
0
0
200


MChambers
30
30
24
26
27
16
18
17
8
2
0
2
0
0
0
200


David Bunkley
29
25
27
26
25
19
18
15
10
4
1
1
0
0
0
200


Ichabod Drain
31
27
30
25
24
20
18
16
6
0
3
0
0
0
0
200


mr. snyellinden
32
30
27
22
21
20
20
18
8
2
0
0
0
0
0
200


phaedrus
33
32
28
25
23
15
15
18
9
2
0
0
0
0
0
200


superdave
33
29
29
28
23
18
22
14
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
200


CameronBlue
33
29
25
28
18
17
17
12
12
0
9
0
0
0
0
200


Ultrarunner
29
31
28
22
24
18
16
17
12
2
0
0
1
0
0
200


DukieTiger
32
27
29
20
23
22
17
13
11
4
0
0
2
0
0
200


CDu
32
28
28
24
26
18
20
16
7
0
1
0
0
0
0
200


gurufrisbee
33
27
26
24
19
18
25
15
8
3
2
0
0
0
0
200


kAzE
31
30
26
27
24
15
15
16
6
8
2
0
0
0
0
200


Bob Green
35
30
22
22
30
20
12
20
5
2
2
0
0
0
0
200


devilsince1977
31
30
24
25
22
20
11
14
13
8
2
0
0
0
0
200


jv001
32
30
26
25
24
20
16
15
5
5
2
0
0
0
0
200


Duke79UNLV77
33
28
25
26
21
20
16
20
5
5
1
0
0
0
0
200


mgtr
30
25
30
30
22
20
15
16
7
4
1
0
0
0
0
200


sagegrouse
30
20
25
25
20
20
12
20
10
10
4
0
4
0
0
200


ChillinDuke
29
30
26
26
27
18
18
20
5
1
0
0
0
0
0
200


ACCBBallFan
32
25
28
24
25
16
20
16
11
2
0
1
0
0
0
200


Spanarkel
33
30
31
23
26
14
18
11
7
5
0
2
0
0
0
200


arnie
39
39
1
39
39
39
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
200


Six
27
29
27
22
22
20
20
20
7
4
0
1
1
0
0
200


SenatorClayDavis
31
28
27
23
25
23
22
15
4
2
0
0
0
0
0
200


Green Wave Dukie
29
26
29
23
28
21
20
17
5
0
2
0
0
0
0
200


DukieInBrasil
31
25
24
26
28
20
16
15
9
3
3
0
0
0
0
200


luburch
32
28
30
27
24
18
15
14
10
2
0
0
0
0
0
200


whereinthehellami
30
27
24
26
28
19
15
17
8
3
3
0
0
0
0
200


atoomer0881
30
23
24
25
24
20
17
18
9
8
2
0
0
0
0
200


Fish80
25
24
22
23
19
20
21
18
18
6
0
1
1
1
1
200


Neals384
32
28
25
26
28
17
18
20
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
200


luvdahops
32
28
29
25
25
17
20
15
5
0
4
0
0
0
0
200


devildeac
30
28
32
24
30
16
18
12
8
2
0
0
0
0
0
200


southgater
31
27
29
28
24
16
19
13
7
5
0
1
0
0
0
200


Furniture
28
25
27
24
25
16
23
15
7
8
0
2
0
0
0
200


elvis14
32
30
25
26
26
17
14
14
7
7
2
0
0
0
0
200


House P
33
30
31
26
26
13
17
13
7
3
2
0
0
0
0
201


Troublemaker
30
30
30
25
25
20
15
15
5
2
0
2
1
0
0
200


timmy c
30
25
31
28
29
19
17
12
6.5
2
0
0.5
0
0
0
200


Board Average
31.17
28.05
26.60
25.31
24.86
19.07
17.24
15.14
7.49
3.19
1.24
0.39
0.24
0.02
0.02
200.02

pfrduke
11-16-2016, 10:41 AM
In addition to keeping the stats to find an eventual "winner" of the minutes contest, you guys should do an average of all entries to find out how close the board is as a group in their projections. And which individual person is also closest to the "groupthink" average.

Or you could just say, "that's too much work, Wahoo. Get the hell outta here." ;-)

Not too tricky - the board average is posted above. Closest to average is David Bunkley, whose total absolute variance from the group projection is 11.9 minutes. Furthest to average is arnie, whose picks I don't quite take seriously; furthest to average from someone who seemed to be trying is Fish80, whose total absolute variance is 47.4 minutes.

In terms of players (well, players that are expected to be in the rotation), we had most collective agreement on Grayson Allen's minutes and most divergence (someone surprisingly) on Matt Jones. I would have expected more variance around Bolden or Giles because of the uncertainty created by their injuries.

pfrduke
11-16-2016, 10:48 AM
In terms of players (well, players that are expected to be in the rotation), we had most collective agreement on Grayson Allen's minutes and most divergence (someone surprisingly) on Matt Jones. I would have expected more variance around Bolden or Giles because of the uncertainty created by their injuries.

I got this slightly wrong due to a sorting issue. We had most collective divergence on Tatum, followed by Giles, then Bolden which makes a little more sense. Get healthy guys.

kAzE
11-17-2016, 09:16 AM
I believe I was either #2 or #3 in this last year, but I think I'm already screwed this year because of the Bolden injury and Jeter being more improved than I had anticipated. And here I was, hyping up Jeter all off season and then doubt him with my minutes projections. That's definitely a good thing, though, so I'm happy to be wrong about him :)

flyingdutchdevil
11-17-2016, 10:37 AM
I will get Kennard's minute completely and utterly wrong. Not sure whose minutes he will eat, but Luke will play. A lot.

NSDukeFan
11-17-2016, 11:15 AM
I believe I was either #2 or #3 in this last year, but I think I'm already screwed this year because of the Bolden injury and Jeter being more improved than I had anticipated. And here I was, hyping up Jeter all off season and then doubt him with my minutes projections. That's definitely a good thing, though, so I'm happy to be wrong about him :)

You're not far off from most though. Chase's average projection was 7&1/2, so most didn't project him to play much and things may change when the two potential lottery picks are added to the rotation, no matter how much Chase has improved.

Troublemaker
11-17-2016, 11:51 AM
I will get Kennard's minute completely and utterly wrong. Not sure whose minutes he will eat, but Luke will play. A lot.

Luke's the best offensive player on the team, imo, and Coach has praised him for being the best player in practice so far this season.

flyingdutchdevil
11-17-2016, 12:22 PM
Luke's the best offensive player on the team, imo, and Coach has praised him for being the best player in practice so far this season.

I still think it's Grayson. Grayson is a legitimate three point threat and has proven such. Luke hasn't shown the ability to drive as well (especially in traffic). But I do agree that Luke has the best mid-range game and potentially the best 3pt shot (only time will tell on the latter).

kAzE
11-17-2016, 01:42 PM
I still think it's Grayson. Grayson is a legitimate three point threat and has proven such. Luke hasn't shown the ability to drive as well (especially in traffic). But I do agree that Luke has the best mid-range game and potentially the best 3pt shot (only time will tell on the latter).

I have to disagree with the notion that Luke isn't as good at driving with the basketball as Grayson. They both do it well, just in different ways. Grayson is much more likely to get fouled because he's more willing to be physical and seek out contact to finish inside. This works out sometimes. Grayson can get the other team's bigs in serious foul trouble, as well as pile up the points from the charity stripe. But there's also a drawback to his style. Many times, he will be met at the rim and get flat out denied, or he'll get fouled and the foul isn't called. This often results in a 5 on 4 going the other way, because Grayson will end up on the floor trailing the play. There's also the obvious drawback that Grayson often gets hit pretty hard or lands awkwardly on the floor when he does this.

Luke is more judicious with his forays into the paint, and will often pass out of bad situations, or do some sort of crafty move to free himself up for a short jumper or floater that, more often than not, finds the bottom of the net. Luke is less athletic than Grayson, but is 2 inches taller. This allows him to get off some jumpers/floaters in the paint that Grayson can't get without being swatted.

Grayson is obviously known for his highly aggressive play in the paint, and sometimes can get by on pure volume (and don't get me wrong, the thing I admire most about Grayson is his toughness, his toughness is extraordinary, and cannot be understated), but I think if you plotted out efficiency metrics at the end of the year, you'd find that Luke is not inferior. In fact, I've said this since last year: Luke Kennard is going to be a much better NBA player than Grayson Allen. He's just got a better offensive game for the NBA. They are both good shooters, but I believe Luke is overall a better shooter because of his size, quick release, and natural ability to shoot off the dribble. Grayson's style will not do him any favors in the NBA. I hope he does well, of course, but he can't play the way he does right now in the NBA because he won't have nearly the athletic advantage that he enjoys on a game to game basis in college.

southgater
11-17-2016, 05:54 PM
Thanks for compiling the results. For those who prefer a more visual representation, here's what it looks like. The red symbols are the averages.

6865



For posterity, here are people's picks - please let me know if I got anyone's wrong. We'll check in before conference play starts and at the end of the regular season:




Allen
Jefferson
Tatum
Kennard
Jones
Jackson
Giles
Bolden
Jeter
DeLaurier
Other
White
Vrankovic
Robinson
Obi



flyingdutchdevil
34
31
29
22
25
18
17
16
5
0
3
0
0
0
0
200


NSDukeFan
30
28
27
23
25
20
22
14
8
2
0
1
0
0
0
200


cbarry
30
26
30
29
25
28
18
3
6
3
0
2
0
0
0
200


MChambers
30
30
24
26
27
16
18
17
8
2
0
2
0
0
0
200


David Bunkley
29
25
27
26
25
19
18
15
10
4
1
1
0
0
0
200


Ichabod Drain
31
27
30
25
24
20
18
16
6
0
3
0
0
0
0
200


mr. snyellinden
32
30
27
22
21
20
20
18
8
2
0
0
0
0
0
200


phaedrus
33
32
28
25
23
15
15
18
9
2
0
0
0
0
0
200


superdave
33
29
29
28
23
18
22
14
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
200


CameronBlue
33
29
25
28
18
17
17
12
12
0
9
0
0
0
0
200


Ultrarunner
29
31
28
22
24
18
16
17
12
2
0
0
1
0
0
200


DukieTiger
32
27
29
20
23
22
17
13
11
4
0
0
2
0
0
200


CDu
32
28
28
24
26
18
20
16
7
0
1
0
0
0
0
200


gurufrisbee
33
27
26
24
19
18
25
15
8
3
2
0
0
0
0
200


kAzE
31
30
26
27
24
15
15
16
6
8
2
0
0
0
0
200


Bob Green
35
30
22
22
30
20
12
20
5
2
2
0
0
0
0
200


devilsince1977
31
30
24
25
22
20
11
14
13
8
2
0
0
0
0
200


jv001
32
30
26
25
24
20
16
15
5
5
2
0
0
0
0
200


Duke79UNLV77
33
28
25
26
21
20
16
20
5
5
1
0
0
0
0
200


mgtr
30
25
30
30
22
20
15
16
7
4
1
0
0
0
0
200


sagegrouse
30
20
25
25
20
20
12
20
10
10
4
0
4
0
0
200


ChillinDuke
29
30
26
26
27
18
18
20
5
1
0
0
0
0
0
200


ACCBBallFan
32
25
28
24
25
16
20
16
11
2
0
1
0
0
0
200


Spanarkel
33
30
31
23
26
14
18
11
7
5
0
2
0
0
0
200


arnie
39
39
1
39
39
39
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
200


Six
27
29
27
22
22
20
20
20
7
4
0
1
1
0
0
200


SenatorClayDavis
31
28
27
23
25
23
22
15
4
2
0
0
0
0
0
200


Green Wave Dukie
29
26
29
23
28
21
20
17
5
0
2
0
0
0
0
200


DukieInBrasil
31
25
24
26
28
20
16
15
9
3
3
0
0
0
0
200


luburch
32
28
30
27
24
18
15
14
10
2
0
0
0
0
0
200


whereinthehellami
30
27
24
26
28
19
15
17
8
3
3
0
0
0
0
200


atoomer0881
30
23
24
25
24
20
17
18
9
8
2
0
0
0
0
200


Fish80
25
24
22
23
19
20
21
18
18
6
0
1
1
1
1
200


Neals384
32
28
25
26
28
17
18
20
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
200


luvdahops
32
28
29
25
25
17
20
15
5
0
4
0
0
0
0
200


devildeac
30
28
32
24
30
16
18
12
8
2
0
0
0
0
0
200


southgater
31
27
29
28
24
16
19
13
7
5
0
1
0
0
0
200


Furniture
28
25
27
24
25
16
23
15
7
8
0
2
0
0
0
200


elvis14
32
30
25
26
26
17
14
14
7
7
2
0
0
0
0
200


House P
33
30
31
26
26
13
17
13
7
3
2
0
0
0
0
201


Troublemaker
30
30
30
25
25
20
15
15
5
2
0
2
1
0
0
200


timmy c
30
25
31
28
29
19
17
12
6.5
2
0
0.5
0
0
0
200


Board Average
31.17
28.05
26.60
25.31
24.86
19.07
17.24
15.14
7.49
3.19
1.24
0.39
0.24
0.02
0.02
200.02

Spanarkel
11-19-2016, 03:49 PM
Due to the disheartening rash of injuries, can we please change the Minutes Played challenge to either "games played in(getting within 5-10 would be tough)" or "months played in" this season?

CDu
11-19-2016, 04:15 PM
Due to the disheartening rash of injuries, can we please change the Minutes Played challenge to either "games played in(getting within 5-10 would be tough)" or "months played in" this season?

Yeah this thread has quickly become rather pointless. Especially if Jeter is out for any length of time.

Spanarkel
11-28-2016, 08:40 AM
Thanks for compiling the results. For those who prefer a more visual representation, here's what it looks like. The red symbols are the averages.

6865

An early season congratulations to the only 6 out of 42 posters in the Minutes Contest who predicted Vrank would get ANY minutes this year: Sagegrouse 4/DukieTiger 2/Ultrarunner, Six, Fish80 and Troublemaker all with 1. I know Vrank's minutes will decrease with the return of Harry and Marques, but he has shown a much improved game.

sagegrouse
11-28-2016, 09:40 AM
An early season congratulations to the only 6 out of 42 posters in the Minutes Contest who predicted Vrank would get ANY minutes this year: Sagegrouse 4/DukieTiger 2/Ultrarunner, Six, Fish80 and Troublemaker all with 1. I know Vrank's minutes will decrease with the return of Harry and Marques, but he has shown a much improved game.

Pleased to be an outlier in a good way, for once. Vrank is a pretty knowledgeable player -- he may continue to get minutes when the injured players are able to play.

DukieInBrasil
12-07-2016, 12:36 PM
we're only 10 games into the year, and it's hard to know how the minutes might change once Giles comes back and once Bolden gets up to game speed.
We've seen one change that seems to be a harbinger of things to come: Tatum is back and it is already causing Frank to lose some of his minutes, although it didn't seem to affect any of the other guards' minutes. Bolden's return doesn't seem to have affected Amile's minutes at all, and maybe pinched Jeter's a bit, in that Bolden was 1st big off the bench rather than Jeter, and he was promptly pulled after 2 fouls to be replaced by Jeter, who only got one minute.
My prediction called for 240 total minutes from Javin/Vrank/Jack/Justin/Sean, although my picks gave more minutes to Javin than any of the others. Duke has already played that cohort for 200 minutes this year, and will probably play more than 40 total minutes in the remaining December games, so i was off on that.
Also, Vrank has gotten more minutes so far than Javin, so that pick might have been wrong too. In my defense, Tatum and Bolden sat for longer than expected, and Grayson and Frank sat out a game to nurse injuries, which created more opportunities for the Funktacular Five.
So far, pretty much all of the returning star(ter)s have been playing 30+ minutes/game, in addition to Frank, who is at just under 30. How much this changes as Tatum, Giles and Bolden get into the swing of things will be interesting to watch. It's hard to make an argument for any of those guys to lose minutes, although, as i mentioned earlier, it looks like Tatum is already pinching Jackson's opportunities. Giles and Bolden will certainly pinch Jeter's chances (as well as the Funktacular Five's), and will probably reduce Jefferson's minutes in meaningful game situations just so that he can stay fresh. It remains to be seen if the full coterie of players will cause blowouts to happen often enough that Jeter or any of the other guys get minutes once January rolls around, cuz i don't see them getting minutes in games while the outcome is still in doubt.

pfrduke
03-06-2017, 05:56 PM
An update heading into the post-season. The chart below shows the absolute difference between projected and actual minutes. cbarry is in the lead by being skeptical of Marques Bolden's level of contribution. As a group, the board was most off about Bolden (too high) and Luke (too low):




Allen
Jefferson
Tatum
Kennard
Jones
Jackson
Giles
Bolden
Jeter
DeLaurier
Other
White
Vrankovic
Robinson
Obi



flyingdutchdevil
6.42
3.42
5.00
13.58
8.65
5.10
9.26
11.19
2.68
2.68
2.68
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
75.94


NSDukeFan
2.42
0.42
3.00
12.58
8.65
3.10
14.26
9.19
0.32
0.68
0.32
0.90
3.06
0.32
0
59.23


cbarry
2.42
1.58
6.00
6.58
8.65
4.90
10.26
1.81
1.68
0.32
0.32
0.10
3.06
0.32
0
48.00


MChambers
2.42
2.42
0.00
9.58
6.65
7.10
10.26
12.19
0.32
0.68
0.32
0.10
3.06
0.32
0
55.42


David Bunkley
1.42
2.58
3.00
9.58
8.65
4.10
10.26
10.19
2.32
1.32
0.68
0.90
3.06
0.32
0
58.39


Ichabod Drain
3.42
0.58
6.00
10.58
9.65
3.10
10.26
11.19
1.68
2.68
2.68
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
67.10


mr. snyellinden
4.42
2.42
3.00
13.58
12.65
3.10
12.26
13.19
0.32
0.68
0.32
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
71.23


phaedrus
5.42
4.42
4.00
10.58
10.65
8.10
7.26
13.19
1.32
0.68
0.32
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
71.23


superdave
5.42
1.42
5.00
7.58
10.65
5.10
14.26
9.19
3.68
2.68
0.32
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
70.58


CameronBlue
5.42
1.42
1.00
7.58
15.65
6.10
9.26
7.19
4.32
2.68
8.68
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
74.58


Ultrarunner
1.42
3.42
4.00
13.58
9.65
5.10
8.26
12.19
4.32
0.68
0.32
1.90
2.06
0.32
0
67.23


DukieTiger
4.42
0.58
5.00
15.58
10.65
1.10
9.26
8.19
3.32
1.32
0.32
1.90
1.06
0.32
0
63.03


CDu
4.42
0.42
4.00
11.58
7.65
5.10
12.26
11.19
0.68
2.68
0.68
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
65.94


gurufrisbee
5.42
0.58
2.00
11.58
14.65
5.10
17.26
10.19
0.32
0.32
1.68
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
74.39


kAzE
3.42
2.42
2.00
8.58
9.65
8.10
7.26
11.19
1.68
5.32
1.68
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
66.58


Bob Green
7.42
2.42
2.00
13.58
3.65
3.10
4.26
15.19
2.68
0.68
1.68
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
61.94


devilsince1977
3.42
2.42
0.00
10.58
11.65
3.10
3.26
9.19
5.32
5.32
1.68
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
61.23


jv001
4.42
2.42
2.00
10.58
9.65
3.10
8.26
10.19
2.68
2.32
1.68
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
62.58


Duke79UNLV77
5.42
0.42
1.00
9.58
12.65
3.10
8.26
15.19
2.68
2.32
0.68
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
66.58


mgtr
2.42
2.58
6.00
5.58
11.65
3.10
7.26
11.19
0.68
1.32
0.68
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
57.74


sagegrouse
2.42
7.58
1.00
10.58
13.65
3.10
4.26
15.19
2.32
7.32
3.68
1.90
0.94
0.32
0
74.26


ChillinDuke
1.42
2.42
2.00
9.58
6.65
5.10
10.26
15.19
2.68
1.68
0.32
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
62.58


ACCBBallFan
4.42
2.58
4.00
11.58
8.65
7.10
12.26
11.19
3.32
0.68
0.32
0.90
3.06
0.32
0
70.39


Spanarkel
5.42
2.42
7.00
12.58
7.65
9.10
10.26
6.19
0.68
2.32
0.32
0.10
3.06
0.32
0
67.42


arnie
11.42
11.42
23.00
3.42
5.35
15.90
6.74
3.81
6.68
1.68
0.32
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
95.03


Six
0.58
1.42
3.00
13.58
11.65
3.10
12.26
15.19
0.68
1.32
0.32
0.90
2.06
0.32
0
66.39


SenatorClayDavis
3.42
0.42
3.00
12.58
8.65
0.10
14.26
10.19
3.68
0.68
0.32
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
62.58


Green Wave Dukie
1.42
1.58
5.00
12.58
5.65
2.10
12.26
12.19
2.68
2.68
1.68
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
65.10


DukieInBrasil
3.42
2.58
0.00
9.58
5.65
3.10
8.26
10.19
1.32
0.32
2.68
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
52.39


luburch
4.42
0.42
6.00
8.58
9.65
5.10
7.26
9.19
2.32
0.68
0.32
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
59.23


whereinthehellami
2.42
0.58
0.00
9.58
5.65
4.10
7.26
12.19
0.32
0.32
2.68
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
50.39


atoomer0881
2.42
4.58
0.00
10.58
9.65
3.10
9.26
13.19
1.32
5.32
1.68
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
66.39


Fish80
2.58
3.58
2.00
12.58
14.65
3.10
13.26
13.19
10.32
3.32
0.32
0.90
2.06
0.68
1
83.55


Neals384
4.42
0.42
1.00
9.58
5.65
6.10
10.26
15.19
4.68
0.68
0.68
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
63.94


luvdahops
4.42
0.42
5.00
10.58
8.65
6.10
12.26
10.19
2.68
2.68
3.68
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
71.94


devildeac
2.42
0.42
8.00
11.58
3.65
7.10
10.26
7.19
0.32
0.68
0.32
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
57.23


southgater
3.42
0.58
5.00
7.58
9.65
7.10
11.26
8.19
0.68
2.32
0.32
0.90
3.06
0.32
0
60.39


Furniture
0.42
2.58
3.00
11.58
8.65
7.10
15.26
10.19
0.68
5.32
0.32
0.10
3.06
0.32
0
68.58


elvis14
4.42
2.42
1.00
9.58
7.65
6.10
6.26
9.19
0.68
4.32
1.68
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
58.58


House P
5.42
2.42
7.00
9.58
7.65
10.10
9.26
8.19
0.68
0.32
1.68
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
67.58


Troublemaker
2.42
2.42
6.00
10.58
8.65
3.10
7.26
10.19
2.68
0.68
0.32
0.10
2.06
0.32
0
56.77


timmy c
2.42
2.58
7.00
7.58
4.65
4.10
9.26
7.19
1.18
0.68
0.32
1.40
3.06
0.32
0
51.74








































Minutes
855
855
744
1103
1043
716
240
149
238
83
10
59
95
10
0



MPG
27.58
27.58
24.00
35.58
33.65
23.10
7.74
4.81
7.68
2.68
0.32
1.90
3.06
0.32
0
200


Avg Minute Error
3.59
0.47
2.60
10.27
8.79
4.03
9.50
10.34
0.19
0.51
0.92
1.51
2.83
0.30
0.02

mgtr
03-06-2017, 06:22 PM
Quite interesting. My major errors were Bolden (join the group) and Jones (I really cut down his minutes -- oh ye of little faith!).

cbarry
03-06-2017, 06:59 PM
Woot woot!! Just went with my gut on Marques. I was hoping to be wrong...

Spanarkel
03-22-2017, 08:54 AM
Paging Neals384, pfrduke, southgater or other so motivated, technically inclined poster for the final compilation of the '16-'17 minutes prediction contest...

CDu
03-22-2017, 08:59 AM
Paging Neals384, pfrduke, southgater or other so motivated, technically inclined poster for the final compilation of the '16-'17 minutes prediction contest...

Honestly, to me this has to be the most meaningless contest ever. Not the idea in general, just this year's version.

So much unexpected difficulties:
1. the lingering nature of Giles' injury
2. Jefferson's re-injury
3. Allen's tripping suspension and ankle injuries
4. Jeter's back surgery

If someone could have predicted all of those things, good on 'em. But in my opinion this year's guesstimates were made moot by early January.

cbarry
05-28-2017, 09:02 PM
Paging Neals384, pfrduke, southgater or other so motivated, technically inclined poster for the final compilation of the '16-'17 minutes prediction contest...

Anyone have the final results on this contest? Just curious...

Ultrarunner
05-28-2017, 09:05 PM
Anyone have the final results on this contest? Just curious...

Rats. I was hoping that this was this year's. Not sure I want to see my ranking from last year.

cbarry
05-28-2017, 09:31 PM
Rats. I was hoping that this was this year's. Not sure I want to see my ranking from last year.

I actually did fairly decent last year. The key is to never underestimate how many foot and ankle injuries we seem to have. It sure feels like we have far more lower body injuries than any other school.

Looking forward to 2017-8, and HOPING for fewer injuries than 2016-7!

NSDukeFan
05-29-2017, 10:39 AM
I actually did fairly decent last year. The key is to never underestimate how many foot and ankle injuries we seem to have. It sure feels like we have far more lower body injuries than any other school.

Looking forward to 2017-8, and HOPING for fewer injuries than 2016-7!

We definitely have more lower body injuries than any other team I follow this closely.



Of course, I don't follow any other teams as closely.

MarkD83
05-29-2017, 11:33 AM
here it is..

## SUMMARY Min
------------------------------------------
05 Luke Kennard........ 35.5
00 Jayson Tatum........ 33.3
03 Grayson Allen....... 29.6
15 Frank Jackson....... 24.9
21 Amile Jefferson..... 29.7
13 Matt Jones.......... 32.9
01 Harry Giles......... 11.5
02 Chase Jeter......... 14.9
30 Antonio Vrankovic... 7.8
41 Jack White.......... 6.1
12 Javin DeLaurier..... 7.1
20 Marques Bolden...... 6.5
50 Justin Robinson..... 1.7
45 Nick Pagliuca....... 1.6
53 Brennan Besser...... 2.0

NSDukeFan
05-29-2017, 05:16 PM
here it is..

## SUMMARY Min
------------------------------------------
05 Luke Kennard.... 35.5
00 Jayson Tatum.... 33.3
03 Grayson Allen.... 29.6
15 Frank Jackson.... 24.9
21 Amile Jefferson.... 29.7
13 Matt Jones...... 32.9
01 Harry Giles..... 11.5
02 Chase Jeter..... 14.9
30 Antonio Vrankovic... 7.8
41 Jack White...... 6.1
12 Javin DeLaurier.... 7.1
20 Marques Bolden... 6.5
50 Justin Robinson.... 1.7
45 Nick Pagliuca.... 1.6
53 Brennan Besser... 2.0

I think you have almost everyone too high since you didn't account for DNPs.

MarkD83
05-30-2017, 05:30 PM
I think you have almost everyone too high since you didn't account for DNPs.

I can't even cheat and get things right..maybe I need to go get a degree from Chapel Hill...