Phase 0 2016-17 MBB Season

[Newton_14]

Well, it’s that time of year basketball fans! I don’t know about you, but I am totally stoked about the prospects of our Duke Blue Devils this season! If you are not excited, you should be! As Coach K said earlier this week, this team has a chance to be really special. If things come together then lookout, because these young men are definitely going to be Banner Hunting. I am really hoping we can finally take back what is rightfully ours which are the ACC Regular Season Championship, and ACC Tournament Championship. We need to end that drought! Of course we also have our eyes on the bigger prizes, in the Regional Championship to advance to the Final Four, and the biggest prize of them all in the National Title. Unlike the last two seasons specifically, the cupboard is fully stocked! We have young, old, big, medium, and small guys, and enough talent to sweep the ACC Rookie & Player Of The Year Awards. However, those things are for later on and there is a ton of work to put in if these guys are going to challenge for all those things. And with that, without further ado, I submit to you this Seasons Phase 0 Report. I tried really hard to pay homage to the guy who started these “Phase Reports” way back when, with how I structured and wrote this. For those that don’t know, his screen name was “Jumbo” but we actually think he was Jon Scheyer in real life. HA! I hope I did him proud! Please Please Please join the discussion in this thread and give us all your thoughts. We want to drive much more discussion with the Phase Threads this season, and we have added a few new guys to help write these things, and we are really excited about that and hope you will enjoy their inputs. So here we go!
Phase 0 will run from CTC to the 2nd Exhibition Game
Below is a link to key rules refs will focus on this season. As we start Phase 0 and this new season, I would encourage you to take the time to watch it. I will put up a thread on it next week and get into the points of emphasis and changes in a more in-depth manner.
Link To Rules Change Video:Rules Changes 2016-17 (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?38554-SI-on-the-state-of-the-college-game&p=914578#post914578)

Can Duke Stay Healthy?
I know some of you disagree with Health being the top item or an item at all, but it is so key for any team, and for our Devils this season it is already playing a role.


Giles is working to get back from last year’s major knee surgery on the ACL/MCL, but is also now recovering from the “clean up procedure” on the other knee to get rid of some lingering scar tissue. I saw him at the Inside Duke Basketball Event practice. He was walking around fine with no limp, no brace, and just the two small strips the docs use over the stitches. Our hope is that at most he misses all the games in this Phase and is available for Phase I and the start of the regular season
Grayson. Some people are freaking out over Grayson missing both the General Public Open Practice and the Inside Duke Basketball EmilyK Benefit practice, however, let me put those fears to rest. The first time he had a minor strained hamstring, and the second time he was getting therapy for a minor issue with a shoulder he banged up a little bit in the Friday Practice the day before. Coach K insisted it was minor and Grayson is fine overall. I saw photos from the practice that following Monday as that was the Duke Children Hospital Event where donors could attend, and Grayson was participating. I fully expect to see him play at CTC Saturday Night

So, the key questions health wise as of right now are: When will Giles be ready? How quickly can he get up to full speed with the conditioning required to play at this level, and obviously, what kind of player will we see when he finally takes the floor? We will not find out in this short Phase, so this is something that will not be known until at least Phase 1. Thoughts?

How good are the other Freshman?

Tatum- I have seen him twice now in practices and to these eyes he looks like the real deal offensively. Really really good shooter… from deep or midrange. He will kill that Cuse zone when he is in the game at the 4 spot. Very very impressive. Offensive machine. The only thing I have not seen from him offensively is the ability or desire really to pass for an assist. He looks to score always and is very successful. Can he be a good passer? Will he make the extra pass? What can he do defensively? Those are questions I hope to get answers for soon.
Jackson- He looks very solid out there, also is a good shooter, his defense stood out to me during scrimmages, especially on the ball, and imo he is a better ball handler than advertised. During the EmilyK Practice, they were working on their full court press and Jackson was running the point for the blue team. K stopped the action to give instruction, and made the following statement: “We will not play against very many guards all year that will be as good as Frank is”. That gave me pause.
Bolden- I went on the record after the first open practice that Bolden would be our starting center at the beginning of the season, especially with Giles out. We will not find out until Phase I, because if you didn’t know, the starting lineups in the two Exhibition Games mean absolutely nothing. We see that every year. So we wait for Game 1 in Phase I to know if I am right. Bolden is big, skilled, good hands, good footwork, and good shot blocker. Not going to take or make many jump shots though. That was evidenced in practice. I am very excited about this kid and what he brings to the table though
Of the others, DeLaurier seems to be the best of the crop, but not yet ready to be a rotation player. Dude can jump out of the gym. Grabbed a rebound in traffic Saturday that dropped our collective jaws. I think he is going to be a fine player for Duke but will need some time to adjust and improve his skillset. White is not ready. Not a slam at all. Some freshman are ready out of the gate and some are not, and there is nothing at all wrong with that.

So, are they as good as advertised? All seem to me to at least be as good as their ranking if not better. We will know early once we play that first tough game. I fully expect to see all three of those top guys I listed firmly in the rotation. What do you guys expect from them?

Can the Vets and Rooks mesh together and develop the Chemistry needed?

The beauty of the 2015 National Champs is just how much they loved each other, pulled for each other, and accepted each other and their respective roles. The vets on that team embraced the freshman and encouraged them to be themselves and be as good as they could be and assured them there would be no jealousy. It was a joy to watch. Can this year’s team capture that same magic, setting egos to the side? I believe they can but it is definitely something to watch. It might take a while to get the answer. Will they mesh? Share the ball? Be a FIST?


What about those Vets this year?

This is Amile’s team period. He is the Leader of The Troops, the voice of direction, and on top of those outstanding leadership skills he has developed, he has also developed his body and his game. Gone are those skinny arms, and that skinny kid that got pushed around as an underclassmen. He looks great. I expect great things from him. Grayson is uber talented as we all know. Fearless, high motor, great shooter, great scorer, good rebounder and I think he is a solid defender. He came back to develop his play making skills, improve his ball handler, and in his words “Be a lead Guard”. Will he build upon last year? Can he handle the constant hate and heckling? Matt Jones.. ah the polarizing guy of the group! Whatever you think of his offensive skills, the guy can defend, period, and can knock down the catch and shoot 3 very efficiently. Is he healthier than last season? More on him in the next category. Luke Kennard- High volume scorer, probably a better shooter than we saw last year. He looks improved to me. I think he will be a key cog in the best perimeter Duke has had in a very long time. Chase Jeter- Played great over the summer; he looks more comfortable to me out there, especially offensively, but can still be prone to mental mistakes. He battles, he defends, he rebounds, and he hustles. Selfless kid. Can he limit the mental mistakes and stay solidly in the rotation? Start while Giles heals?


If required/asked, will Matt Jones take on a 6th Man role and thrive in it?

We’ve seen Nate James do it (oh and he is on the staff and can advise Matt on the role), we’ve seen Jon Scheyer do it (oh and he is on the staff and can advise Matt on the role). J Seriously, if Jackson is the real deal, and forces K to start him in the backcourt with Grayson, Matt will have to be in that 6th man role. It’s that simple. Grayson, Tatum, and Amile are lock for starters’ full time imo. If asked, I fully expect Matt to not only embrace the role but thrive in it. I expect starter type minutes and “D & 3” from Matt. I am in the camp that loves this kid. He is a winner pure and simple, and like Grayson and Amile, he was a key cog on a National Championship team. You can neither purchase nor teach that experience. It has to be lived and Matt has lived it. So 6th man or starter? We won’t know in Phase 0 but we will know soon enough.


Can these guys play defense? Duke Defense?

Ah, the tradeoff in the OAD Era. Not enough time to teach them the real, complete Duke Defense. Coach K has stated that himself multiple times over these last few years including last Saturday. However, Coach, God Bless Him, just keeps evolving and evolving and getting better like fine wine over time. The man can Coach. In the practice they worked on full court m2m, half court m2m and various zone presses. Positioning was emphasized over and over in all of those defenses. The young’uns have a lot to learn there but they are working hard and appear capable of developing into a good defensive team. Shot blocking? Check. Ball hawking guard to defend the opposing PG? Check. Length? Check. Quickness? Check. The tools are there. It will come down to the mental and how well they learn and execute. Will they turn into a really good defense? Top50 Defense? Top20? Top75? It will be a season long process. The 2015 kids finally figured it out when it mattered most which was the final 6 games of the season. I hope this group figures it out sooner. Will they?


Lastly, which player or players will surprise us in a good way?

Don’t look at it just from the standpoint of which kid will play better than we expected… look at it also from a standpoint of, will one or more of them show us a skillset we didn’t realize they had?

These are some of the key things I will be watching for as we kick off this season. I know some/many of the questions will not be answered early on, but they are things I believe are important for this team to max out on its talents and reach its goals. Give us your input on how you see these things playing out and also what questions do you have as we kick off the season and what are you looking for early on and then later?

[Mrezt]

I don't post often at all but just want to say thanks for writing this! Can't wait to see how guys just play tomorrow for more than 5min clips and stuff, I didn't get to see any practices.

Since you said that Grayson, Tatum, and Amile are locks for starting, do you think Giles will start alongside Amile once he is healthy? The line-up can be played with so many different ways, it'll be great to hopefully have a good matchup with most teams.

[The_Dukester]

Great topic! I think your 1st question is the most important b/c I believe if this team stays healthy all the other pieces will fall into place. As far as what has transpired so far injury wise, I believe Grayson is just a case of precautionary rest & will have no effect on the season. With Giles, I believe he will miss a few November games & then come off the bench for a while as he is brought along slowly to get the rust off & get back into basketball shape. It's quite possible Giles stays on a minutes restriction the entire season & plays the role of supersub all year ala Marvin Williams for the UNCheat title team.

As for the freshmen. Tatum will start all year. Bolden & Jackson will get consitent minutes all year & possibly start, but l agree that the only guaranteed starters all season are Allen, Jefferson, & Tatum. I believe Bolden's minutes will depend on how well he mans the middle defensively. I see him and Jeter alternating the 5, where Jeter may be a better help side defender & Bolden a better rim protector. I'm not sure who's better offensively b/c I haven't seen the improved Jeter except for clips here and there. (For the sake of brevity I'm kind of skipping around) Jackson appears to be Duke's lone player who can pressure opposing PGs. The key for him will be playing within himself offensively & letting the game come to him.

I think this years team should be one of K's best defensive teams in terms of rim protection. Duke with Jefferson, Giles, Jeter, Tatum, Javin, and Bolden have 6 guys w/ a 6'11"+ wingspan & there was talk of playing 4 together w/ a Allen, Tatum, Jefferson, Giles, Bolden lineup.

The final piece to tie it all together I think will be the improvement of Luke & Chase. If they're playing well enough where there is no dropoff when K brings them & possibly Giles off the bench, that will be back breaking for opponents!

[Troublemaker]

Outstanding Phase post, N_14!

I liked how you peppered in some practice reports as well. Thanks!




How good are the other Freshman?

Jackson- He looks very solid out there, also is a good shooter, his defense stood out to me during scrimmages, especially on the ball, and imo he is a better ball handler than advertised. During the EmilyK Practice, they were working on their full court press and Jackson was running the point for the blue team. K stopped the action to give instruction, and made the following statement: “We will not play against very many guards all year that will be as good as Frank is”. That gave me pause.



If required/asked, will Matt Jones take on a 6th Man role and thrive in it?

We’ve seen Nate James do it (oh and he is on the staff and can advise Matt on the role), we’ve seen Jon Scheyer do it (oh and he is on the staff and can advise Matt on the role). Seriously, if Jackson is the real deal, and forces K to start him in the backcourt with Grayson, Matt will have to be in that 6th man role. It’s that simple. Grayson, Tatum, and Amile are lock for starters’ full time imo. If asked, I fully expect Matt to not only embrace the role but thrive in it. I expect starter type minutes and “D & 3” from Matt. I am in the camp that loves this kid. He is a winner pure and simple, and like Grayson and Amile, he was a key cog on a National Championship team. You can neither purchase nor teach that experience. It has to be lived and Matt has lived it. So 6th man or starter? We won’t know in Phase 0 but we will know soon enough.


This would be huge if it came to be. I've been hesitant to predict Frank as a starter because I expect Luke and Matt to be really good players and also because Frank isn't quite as ballyhooed as fellow freshmen Jayson and Harry. But, physically, Frank really would be our best answer for defending quick point guards if he's ready. And there are going to be LOTS of talented, quick point guards in college basketball this season, many on fellow Final Four contenders. Like you, I would expect Matt to embrace and thrive in a 6th-man role off the bench. Hopefully Frank is up to the task of being a freshman starter -- it sounds like there's a chance.

[DukieTiger]

I've been waiting for these!! Thanks for the great post. A few thoughts:

1) Regarding Tatum's propensity for looking to score and not (ever) distribute. To me, that's a major question mark for how this team will mesh. 2015 did well because there really wasn't a ball-stopper in the bunch. I have to admit, I had this same concern about Ingram after last year's countdown but he completely changed my mind by the end of the phase. I don't think Ingram is the gunner that Tatum is, but I do think we will learn something over the next two weeks about how well Tatum's (truly impressive) offensive game meshes with the veterans. He needs to be ok being option #2, because Grayson is clearly Duke's best offensive option.

2) Regarding Bolden's skill set- I've actually heard some rumblings about him being a decent threat to shoot from the high post. I will be interested to see if he flashes that at all in Phase 0.

3) I see one other scenario where Matt Jones is asked to be the 6th man- and that's if Luke Kennard wins the starting SG spot and they are comfortable with Grayson as primary ball handler.

4) Regarding the returning vets, the thing I'm most excited to see is if Luke Kennard is more consistent with his outside shot. If he could become a 40% 3pt shooter, he becomes an amazingly efficient weapon.

Looking forward to tonight!

[Saratoga2]

Great to see a quality report like this at the beginning of the season. Not much to add at this time since I have not seen these kids play as yet but am excited by the possibilities.

Not much mention in staying healthy of Matt's ankles. He was definitely slowed last year in that way and had problems elevating so driving to the basket and rebounding were down for him. Hope that a new season sees his ankles recovered enough to be the defensive force we have come to like about his game.

With a youthful team, we have to expect issues with giving a lot of gratuitous fouls. With our depth inside, that should be no issue. Outside, I don't see that great depth. Grayson, Matt, Luke and Frank will fill the bill with a versatile small forward to help outside if necessary.

I agree that we will have 3 starters clearly defined and a 4th appearing to be close to that level in Frank by what has been said. We have guys who would be starters on most other teams who will be playing substitute roles. No wonder people are so positive about this team.

[CDu]

Thanks for getting it all started Newton_14!

As a Cubs fan, I am trying hard to enjoy the ride this year. But I feel like there are a lot of parallels between the expectations the Cubs have carried all year and the expectations our Devils will face. So this baseball season has been practice for me for the regular season. Looking forward to enjoying the ride. Can't wait to see this team get on the court!

[Bob Green]

Thanks for the in depth post to start this season's Phase reporting. It is great stuff!




Jackson- He looks very solid out there, also is a good shooter, his defense stood out to me during scrimmages, especially on the ball, and imo he is a better ball handler than advertised. During the EmilyK Practice, they were working on their full court press and Jackson was running the point for the blue team. K stopped the action to give instruction, and made the following statement: “We will not play against very many guards all year that will be as good as Frank is”. That gave me pause.

Jackson's on the ball defense will be the key to his playing time. Grayson Allen is going to play 33+ minutes per game with Matt Jones and Luke Kennard seeing starters minutes as well. On the ball defense is the skill set which could be a difference maker for Jackson. If Jackson can be a defender and facilitator, he will see plenty of action.

[COYS]

Excellent work! Seeing the Phase posts pop up always brings a little extra excitement to the day.

One area I'm particularly curious to watch is spacing on the offensive end. This team has a lot of offensive weapons, but it also seems like we're going to be seeing a lot of Amile with Marques/Harry/Chase in the post. For that to work, Jayson has to be a threat from three point range (from reports it sounds like he's getting comfortable from there), and Luke must be improved, as well. I expect Luke to have a better shooting year than last, if only because his reputation as a good shooter from high school and his stellar free throw shooting indicate he almost certainly is a better shooter than he showed last season. But consistent three point shooting from Luke and Jayson will be key to getting the offense to function without a power forward who can stretch the floor, especially against the better defensive teams we play.

K is truly a master at getting the perfect spacing on offense (I've mentioned this before, but check out KenPom and see how consistently excellent Duke is on the offensive end). I expect the team to be very good on offense no matter what. However, if Luke and Jayson are threats from deep, our offense looks far more versatile. We can play big with Jayson/Amile/Marques or Chase (and eventually Harry) or we can play small and fast with three guards, Jayson, and Amile. I'd love this team to have the versatility to provide different looks on offense to exploit what I hope will be a variety of mismatches our big and small lineups will present to the opposing team.

[MChambers]

Love the summary. I'd add one thing I'll be looking for: how Duke runs its offense with two bigs in the game who can't shoot from outside. Unless we play a small lineup, with Tatum as the second biggest player, the Devils will have two bigs on the floor whose range is from the free throw line in, on a good day (Jefferson, Bolden, Jeter, Giles). Will the half court offense look like 2010, with lots of screening?

[budwom]

very nice post! I do think I'll quibble about the comment regarding Tatum at the 4...sure, K does like to go small very often, but this year we have
three stalwarts at the 4 and 5 positions with Jefferson, Bolden and Giles (not to mention Jeter). While Tatum surely can slide over there, and no doubt will on occasion, I see
him much more at the three...yes, it's true that we'll then have a surplus of good guards (Allen, Jones, Kennard and Jackson) and some will migrate over to
the SF position on occasion, but our very best lineup (IMO) will have Tatum at the three.

All of this assumes that Giles will be healthy, and a agree with the original post that should be...the knee cleanup operation was not a big deal.

p.s. if we were without Giles, we'd have a very very formidable team. With him at anywhere near full strength (and I expect this), it could be truly sensational.

[Troublemaker]

very nice post! I do think I'll quibble about the comment regarding Tatum at the 4...sure, K does like to go small very often, but this year we have three stalwarts at the 4 and 5 positions with Jefferson, Bolden and Giles (not to mention Jeter). While Tatum surely can slide over there, and no doubt will on occasion, I see him much more at the three...

That was how I envisioned things, too, had Giles began the season 100%. But now I see Tatum playing a lot of 4 (say, 50% of the time) while Giles is out and while Duke is gradually working Giles back into the lineup and building up his minutes. Once Harry can play 25-30 mpg, it's hard to say what will happen then. I suspect the Tatum-at-4 lineup will have shown itself to be very effective and will continue to be used a decent amount even after Harry is fully back.

[budwom]

That was how I envisioned things, too, had Giles began the season 100%. But now I see Tatum playing a lot of 4 (say, 50% of the time) while Giles is out and while Duke is gradually working Giles back into the lineup and building up his minutes. Once Harry can play 25-30 mpg, it's hard to say what will happen then. I suspect the Tatum-at-4 lineup will have shown itself to be very effective and will continue to be used a decent amount even after Harry is fully back.

Could be true. But then who sits? I just don't see Jefferson, Giles or Bolden sitting much, especially when Tatum will be our best SF. Good problem to have...

[Kedsy]

Fitting Phase post to start the year. Thanks, Mark!


That was how I envisioned things, too, had Giles began the season 100%. But now I see Tatum playing a lot of 4 (say, 50% of the time) while Giles is out and while Duke is gradually working Giles back into the lineup and building up his minutes. Once Harry can play 25-30 mpg, it's hard to say what will happen then. I suspect the Tatum-at-4 lineup will have shown itself to be very effective and will continue to be used a decent amount even after Harry is fully back.

I'm not sure I agree. Historically, Coach K doesn't go small early in the season, except maybe in crunch time in the toughest games. So my guess is, while Harry is out we'll be seeing Jayson mostly at SF, except maybe against Kansas and Michigan State (if Harry is still out by then). Once Harry is back and the conference schedule is in full swing, all bets are off. If the team is roaring through its schedule with two bigs in the lineup, I suspect it will continue. If we start to sputter, then like 2015 and many seasons before that, we could end up with a 7-man rotation and Jayson at PF.

[Newton_14]

I don't post often at all but just want to say thanks for writing this! Can't wait to see how guys just play tomorrow for more than 5min clips and stuff, I didn't get to see any practices.

Since you said that Grayson, Tatum, and Amile are locks for starting, do you think Giles will start alongside Amile once he is healthy? The line-up can be played with so many different ways, it'll be great to hopefully have a good matchup with most teams.
Sorry for the delayed reply. If Harry comes back as the really good player all the hype is about, then absolutely, without a doubt, yes I think he and Amile start alongside each other. The amazing thing with this team, especially when Giles come back is "who doesn't start??" . I'm just glad Coach K is the guy that has to make those decisions and not me. I mean, gosh, who do you sit to start the game? Luke? Frank? Matt? Bolden?

It is just going to be very tough to decide who should start and who should come off the bench. For example, on most every other team in the Country, Luke Kennard would be a star player and the Number 1 Offensive Option on his team. With this group, he is a role player. (A key/very important role player, but still, a role player nonetheless)

Based on everything I have seen to date, my gut tells me that in that first Regular Season game that counts, the starters will be Grayson, Matt, Luke, Tatum, Amile. With Jackson, Bolden, Jeter coming off the bench and in the rotation.

I might have a different opinion after watching the two exhibition games. And again, I stress to all, the starting line up in the two exhibitions are almost never the line up K goes with when the games that count start. Two examples: Alex Murphy starting one or both of the exhibitions in both his true freshman season, and then his red-shirt freshman season, and Matt Jones started over Quinn Cook in both of the 2014-15 Exhibition Games (The Title Season). So you have to take the starters in those games with a grain of salt.

[DukieInBrasil]

This might not be the ideal thread for this question but....
DBR has made multiple references recently about Vrank (the Tank) being a redshirt. Is this true? I remember he played in a few games and it seemed like he played late enough in the year that he wouldn't have gotten a redshirt even if he was injured. I certainly don't remember any talk of him being injured.

[Dev11]

very nice post! I do think I'll quibble about the comment regarding Tatum at the 4...sure, K does like to go small very often, but this year we have
three stalwarts at the 4 and 5 positions with Jefferson, Bolden and Giles (not to mention Jeter). While Tatum surely can slide over there, and no doubt will on occasion, I see
him much more at the three...yes, it's true that we'll then have a surplus of good guards (Allen, Jones, Kennard and Jackson) and some will migrate over to
the SF position on occasion, but our very best lineup (IMO) will have Tatum at the three.

All of this assumes that Giles will be healthy, and a agree with the original post that should be...the knee cleanup operation was not a big deal.

p.s. if we were without Giles, we'd have a very very formidable team. With him at anywhere near full strength (and I expect this), it could be truly sensational.

See 2010, Duke had four capable bigs (Zoubek, Thomas, Mason Miles) plus a big wing who had previously played a lot of minutes (Singler). Kyle rarely played in the post that season, and as I recall, that team was rather efficient. Once Giles is healthy, I don't expect to see Tatum spend much time in the post.

I hate that every phase analysis has to begin with health, but such is sports. We won't know this team's ceiling until Giles is really healthy and has a couple games with the team for them to get used to playing with him. Hope it's sooner than later.

[Troublemaker]

This might not be the ideal thread for this question but...
DBR has made multiple references recently about Vrank (the Tank) being a redshirt. Is this true? I remember he played in a few games and it seemed like he played late enough in the year that he wouldn't have gotten a redshirt even if he was injured. I certainly don't remember any talk of him being injured.

Vrank was not a redshirt last season, as ANY amount of playing time burns the non-medical redshirt option.

[flyingdutchdevil]

This might not be the ideal thread for this question but...
DBR has made multiple references recently about Vrank (the Tank) being a redshirt. Is this true? I remember he played in a few games and it seemed like he played late enough in the year that he wouldn't have gotten a redshirt even if he was injured. I certainly don't remember any talk of him being injured.

I am not an insider, but I will say that, between Giles (last year at Duke), Jefferson (last year at Duke), Bolden (probably last year at Duke), and Jeter with Tatum (last year at Duke) probably playing a bunch at the 4, Vrank isn't seeing the court unless Duke is up 25 with 5 min to go.

Duke is stacked at the 4/5, with Jefferson and Giles being able to play either position. Healthy or unhealthy or redshirt or no redshirt, Vrank isn't playing this year.

[budwom]

Sorry for the delayed reply. If Harry comes back as the really good player all the hype is about, then absolutely, without a doubt, yes I think he and Amile start alongside each other. The amazing thing with this team, especially when Giles come back is "who doesn't start??" . I'm just glad Coach K is the guy that has to make those decisions and not me. I mean, gosh, who do you sit to start the game? Luke? Frank? Matt? Bolden?

It is just going to be very tough to decide who should start and who should come off the bench. For example, on most every other team in the Country, Luke Kennard would be a star player and the Number 1 Offensive Option on his team. With this group, he is a role player. (A key/very important role player, but still, a role player nonetheless)

Based on everything I have seen to date, my gut tells me that in that first Regular Season game that counts, the starters will be Grayson, Matt, Luke, Tatum, Amile. With Jackson, Bolden, Jeter coming off the bench and in the rotation.

I might have a different opinion after watching the two exhibition games. And again, I stress to all, the starting line up in the two exhibitions are almost never the line up K goes with when the games that count start. Two examples: Alex Murphy starting one or both of the exhibitions in both his true freshman season, and then his red-shirt freshman season, and Matt Jones started over Quinn Cook in both of the 2014-15 Exhibition Games (The Title Season). So you have to take the starters in those games with a grain of salt.

I think one of the most over-analyzed aspects of Duke (or any other) hoops is the question of who starts (and I'm not criticizing you in the least, Newt)...starting lineups change over the course of the season, but
what matters most (to me anyway) is who is in the game at crunch time....and even that will vary depending upon who's playing well during any particular game.

Duke will have (barring injury) eight guys who absolutely will be in the rotation: Allen, Jones, Kennard, Jackson, Tatum, Giles, Jefferson and Bolden. I wouldn't be surprised to see
any of those guys start at some point during the season, nor would I be surprised to see any of them playing at crunch time.

Without delving too deep into the annual This Year K Will Absolutely Have to Play Ten Guys sweepstakes, I see the rotation over/under at about 8.5 or possibly 9.0 guys, with
DeLaurier and Jeter vying for the addition half or whole spot.

[flyingdutchdevil]

See 2010, Duke had four capable bigs (Zoubek, Thomas, Mason Miles) plus a big wing who had previously played a lot of minutes (Singler). Kyle rarely played in the post that season, and as I recall, that team was rather efficient. Once Giles is healthy, I don't expect to see Tatum spend much time in the post.

I hate that every phase analysis has to begin with health, but such is sports. We won't know this team's ceiling until Giles is really healthy and has a couple games with the team for them to get used to playing with him. Hope it's sooner than later.

Kyle rarely played the post because Duke had nearly zero backcourt depth that year. All Duke had was a HS senior in Andre Dawkins, who absolutely helped but was used as insurance in the case that Singler, Smith, or Scheyer got in foul trouble or needed a 45 second break.

My gut tells me that, had Elliott Williams stayed, Singler would have seen some time at the 4. We had frontcourt depth that year (LT, Zoubs, MP1, MP2) but Singler was easily the best scorer of the bunch.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I think one of the most over-analyzed aspects of Duke (or any other) hoops is the question of who starts (and I'm not criticizing you in the least, Newt)...starting lineups change over the course of the season, but
what matters most (to me anyway) is who is in the game at crunch time...and even that will vary depending upon who's playing well during any particular game.

Duke will have (barring injury) eight guys who absolutely will be in the rotation: Allen, Jones, Kennard, Jackson, Tatum, Giles, Jefferson and Bolden. I wouldn't be surprised to see
any of those guys start at some point during the season, nor would I be surprised to see any of them playing at crunch time.

Without delving too deep into the annual This Year K Will Absolutely Have to Play Ten Guys sweepstakes, I see the rotation over/under at about 8.5 or possibly 9.0 guys, with
DeLaurier and Jeter vying for the addition half or whole spot.

The only issue I have with crunch time is that crunch time is often the intersection between a) who are the best players and b) who is a reliable FT shooter. You can argue that Okafor wasn't available during many "crunch time" moments because his FT shooting was atrocious.

IMO, the best measurement is minutes per game. I believe that is 100% correlated with how Coach K views who is the most valuable player(s) on the team and who is truly part of the rotation.

I put this year's rotation at 8 and, with a gun to my head, I'd say "under" over "over" if forced to.

[-jk]

The only issue I have with crunch time is that crunch time is often the intersection between a) who are the best players and b) who is a reliable FT shooter. You can argue that Okafor wasn't available during many "crunch time" moments because his FT shooting was atrocious.

IMO, the best measurement is minutes per game. I believe that is 100% correlated with how Coach K views who is the most valuable player(s) on the team and who is truly part of the rotation.

I put this year's rotation at 8 and, with a gun to my head, I'd say "under" over "over" if forced to.

Matchups matter, too...

-jk

[Billy Dat]

Way to take and win the opening jump, Newt!



So, the key questions health wise as of right now are: When will Giles be ready? How quickly can he get up to full speed with the conditioning required to play at this level, and obviously, what kind of player will we see when he finally takes the floor? We will not find out in this short Phase, so this is something that will not be known until at least Phase 1. Thoughts?

The more preview information I inhale, the more the with/without Giles story looms so large. We can be a different team offensively and defensively when he is on the court. With and Amile and big man #2, the potential for lane clogging and lack of rim protection exists. Giles would seem to solve those problems. I guess any two big line-up with Amile means Amile has to be the high post/perimeter option which is probably where all K's "Draymond" comparisons stem from...which crack me up because K thought so much of Draymond that he never played him in Rio. Harry just seems to be the piece that makes everything else make sense. We obviously have more than enough talent even without Harry, but our upside with him seems huge.



Tatum- I have seen him twice now in practices and to these eyes he looks like the real deal offensively. Really really good shooter… from deep or midrange. He will kill that Cuse zone when he is in the game at the 4 spot. Very very impressive. Offensive machine. The only thing I have not seen from him offensively is the ability or desire really to pass for an assist. He looks to score always and is very successful. Can he be a good passer? Will he make the extra pass? What can he do defensively? Those are questions I hope to get answers for soon.

I don't think Ingram is the gunner that Tatum is, but I do think we will learn something over the next two weeks about how well Tatum's (truly impressive) offensive game meshes with the veterans. He needs to be ok being option #2, because Grayson is clearly Duke's best offensive option.

This is something that is concerning in a nitpick kind of way. Grayson is clearly Duke's most proven offensive option, but it doesn't mean he's better on offense than Tatum. We don't know yet. It's kind of like Grayson and Ingram. I think Ingram would have passed Grayson as a weapon this year as his stamina/strength increased. Grayson's shoot or drive capability seem to make him more versatile, but Tatum has that size to get off his shot against anyone. My point is that I fear "you turn/my turn" with these guys, but Grayson has shown potential as a set-up man.


Like you, I would expect Matt to embrace and thrive in a 6th-man role off the bench. Hopefully Frank is up to the task of being a freshman starter -- it sounds like there's a chance.

It depends whether or not we can defend. I imagine that for nearly every team we face, Matt gets the toughest defensive assignment. Because of that, and unless someone else proves able to lock-up the other team's star, I see him starting.



2) Regarding Bolden's skill set- I've actually heard some rumblings about him being a decent threat to shoot from the high post. I will be interested to see if he flashes that at all in Phase 0.
4) Regarding the returning vets, the thing I'm most excited to see is if Luke Kennard is more consistent with his outside shot. If he could become a 40% 3pt shooter, he becomes an amazingly efficient weapon.

I've already heard a lot of Bolden-is-Jah-lite talk from the scouts. That would potentially include a face-up game, but I don't think we can expect the same low post polish. I expect Luke to shoot really well this year. His inside-outside game reminds me a lot of Grayson's, minus the above-the-rim component.


I'm just glad Coach K is the guy that has to make those decisions and not me. I mean, gosh, who do you sit to start the game? Luke? Frank? Matt? Bolden? Based on everything I have seen to date, my gut tells me that in that first Regular Season game that counts, the starters will be Grayson, Matt, Luke, Tatum, Amile. With Jackson, Bolden, Jeter coming off the bench and in the rotation.


I'm not sure I agree. Historically, Coach K doesn't go small early in the season, except maybe in crunch time in the toughest games. So my guess is, while Harry is out we'll be seeing Jayson mostly at SF, except maybe against Kansas and Michigan State (if Harry is still out by then). Once Harry is back and the conference schedule is in full swing, all bets are off. If the team is roaring through its schedule with two bigs in the lineup, I suspect it will continue. If we start to sputter, then like 2015 and many seasons before that, we could end up with a 7-man rotation and Jayson at PF.

I think much will depend on whether Newton's small line-up can defend and rebound or can Kedsy's two big line-up avoid the clogged toilet offense. We need some magic to figure it out. As a wise man who knew something about magic once said, "You're a wizard, Harry, and a thumpin good one I'd wager"

[COYS]

Matchups matter, too...

-jk

Perhaps . . . but from my perspective it certainly seems as if Coach K's personnel decisions are generally made to force the other team to play against our best lineup, no matter what. I mean, we definitely take advantage of mismatches when we can and do different things on both ends of the court depending on who we're playing, but I'm trying to remember a time when it seemed like Coach K dramatically altered the rotation to match up with another team and I can't. Even some of Coach K's biggest mid-season lineup shakeups (Inserting Eliot Williams as a starter in 2009, Zoubek in 2010, Tyler Thornton in 2011, Matt Jones in 2015, and etc.) were prompted by the play of Duke's guys, not the other team.

The closest thing I can think of to coach K changing the rotation based on matchups is when a player that is on the periphery of the rotation is given a few minutes, plays well, and earns more time in that game, possibly because that player happens to exploit certain matchups. Something like Grayson in the 2015 championship game would be the most obvious example. But playing Grayson that many minutes was almost certainly not in Coach K's original game plan.

[blazindw]

Well, it’s that time of year basketball fans! I don’t know about you, but I am totally stoked about the prospects of our Duke Blue Devils this season! If you are not excited, you should be! As Coach K said earlier this week, this team has a chance to be really special. If things come together then lookout, because these young men are definitely going to be Banner Hunting. I am really hoping we can finally take back what is rightfully ours which are the ACC Regular Season Championship, and ACC Tournament Championship. We need to end that drought! Of course we also have our eyes on the bigger prizes, in the Regional Championship to advance to the Final Four, and the biggest prize of them all in the National Title. Unlike the last two seasons specifically, the cupboard is fully stocked! We have young, old, big, medium, and small guys, and enough talent to sweep the ACC Rookie & Player Of The Year Awards. However, those things are for later on and there is a ton of work to put in if these guys are going to challenge for all those things. And with that, without further ado, I submit to you this Seasons Phase 0 Report. I tried really hard to pay homage to the guy who started these “Phase Reports” way back when, with how I structured and wrote this. For those that don’t know, his screen name was “Jumbo” but we actually think he was Jon Scheyer in real life. HA! I hope I did him proud! Please Please Please join the discussion in this thread and give us all your thoughts. We want to drive much more discussion with the Phase Threads this season, and we have added a few new guys to help write these things, and we are really excited about that and hope you will enjoy their inputs. So here we go!
Phase 0 will run from CTC to the 2nd Exhibition Game

An incredible post, man! It was great to break down the incoming freshman and you nailed it with the questions that will be important to answer as we move through the preseason and advance towards November 11th. Here are the three things as I see it that are important to determine in this Phase 0:

1. How will the team gel? We saw with Countdown this past weekend and if you've been reviewing the videos that the team has been posting on social media throughout the summer and fall that the team seems to like each other and they already have camaraderie. It's a great mix of talent, youth, with just the right experience. How do they continue to gel on the court? That's what I will look for these next couple weeks. Who plays well with each other? Which rotations seem to be the most cohesive? Which players bring out the best game in others? No doubt that Coach K and the rest of the staff will be analyzing this during the two exhibition games.

2. There will be only one basketball. A gift and a curse is that there's only one basketball on the court. The gift is that we have probably 7 players who could get 20 points on any given night: Allen, Tatum, Giles, Kennard, Jefferson, Jones, and Jackson. The curse is that there just isn't enough shots for everyone to get 20 points every game. Who steps up if Allen has an off night? Who gets big on the glass when Jefferson isn't getting it done? Who's helping to distribute the ball? Who's locking down on D when Matt Jones gets into foul trouble? How will a player respond when getting 25 points in 30 minutes one night and then only getting 10 minutes the next? All that will come down to chemistry and leadership. I think we all feel the chemistry is there, and we have bonafide leaders in Jefferson, Jones and Allen to lead the team and show the freshmen how to tackle the inevitable January wall or to not get discouraged when they have an off night.

3. Taking Duke Defense to the next level. The key to this team will not be on offense, but on defense. They will take everyone's best shot every single night. Our offense may flounder at times and a couple guys may not have good nights shooting. But, our defense has to be there at all times and if we can do that, there will not be a team in the country that can mess with us. One team that I think this team can emulate is the 2000-2001 team. That team had the mix of talent and leadership that one needs, but one thing they did better than any team I've ever seen was talk on defense and concentrate on the defensive end to use that as momentum for their offensive output. Their defensive stops spurred their offense. They prided themselves on working hard on the defensive end every single possession, and I've never seen a team take pride in their defense, beating top 10 teams by 40. This team doesn't need to beat top 10 teams by 40, but this team has the ability to shut down any team they play if they concentrate on our patented Duke Defense, which will spur our offense to easy transition baskets. It will also be a lot of fun to watch.

Those are the things I'm looking for early on in the preseason. We don't have all our pieces together and while Harry Giles recovers, we will see a team that is still learning to properly play with each other. The results aren't important now. Getting sharper everyday is what I'm looking for.

[Doria]

Yes, thanks for starting this thread!

I agree that I'm not too concerned with offense. I'm hoping in terms of defense that the fact we have so much more experience (relative to last year, where lack of options often had us playing 3-4 freshmen) means we'll be better situated to have at least defensive stability, while out freshmen pick up the system and adjust to the college game. I'm a bit worried about lack of quickness, but if we can have solid positioning, without breakdowns, it should mitigate a lot of those concerns.

So excited!

[ChillinDuke]

If there's anything that I noticed from Countdown (which I watched last night), it was that Amile and Matt are more than I thought.

Amile commanded everything. He was everywhere, he was vocal, he was super engaged, he dribbled the ball up, he initiated the offense/called plays (even when he didn't bring the ball up), he nailed a long jumper with smooth confidence (nice to see), he was on the boards. In the short amount of time that Countdown was, there was no doubt in my mind whose team this was. The fact that Amile was out on the perimeter (out past the three point line at times), pointing to players, feeding the post, dribbling with confidence, and even hitting that smooth jumper hints to me that having a clogged lane will not be a problem. At all.

Matt was superb on D. Grayson was so visibly frustrated. He had 10 points in the half (which is still impressive), but it was a dogged 10. Matt was disruptive, irritating, and hounding. If he displays those traits with consistency, I'd be shocked if he doesn't start. He also nailed his threes which will be imperative if we're going to keep the floor nicely spread. Matt also seemed to have a new move or two to help his handle.

Grayson, while having a generally poor half, still had ten points. That says a lot to me. Frustrated and chucking he still had 10 and seemed to be very intent on initiating the offense (although he had turnovers - possibly due to freshmen not being where he expected them to be). He also displayed what seemed to be a more confident handle (potentially saw an inside out double pump that freed him up once or twice?).

Why did I focus on these three? Not because they are the "leaders." But because all three seemed to be sporting an increased focus on ball handling. Allen for sure. Amile for sure. And Matt less so, but seemingly. I think that all three will have a green light to initiate the offense. Which means we can allow Frank and/or Luke to be secondary ball handlers - which their skills may not even mandate, but as a luxury the team does not require. This was the #1 thing I wanted to see, and I feel slightly less concerned, especially seeing Amile act in this role.

It's only 20 minutes of essentially practice. But Countdown made me feel more strongly that we will lean on two bigs, one of which will be Amile as much as possible, and that Tatum will play more as a matchup nightmare wing with too much size for most teams' wings.

All of this is subject to change. But I'm excited.

- Chillin

[Saratoga2]

This might not be the ideal thread for this question but...
DBR has made multiple references recently about Vrank (the Tank) being a redshirt. Is this true? I remember he played in a few games and it seemed like he played late enough in the year that he wouldn't have gotten a redshirt even if he was injured. I certainly don't remember any talk of him being injured.

Vrank is a 6' 11" 275 pound athletic big man who will be gaining experience this year, and if he is patient, has a good chance of making the lineup the following year. Kind of another Marshall Plumley type who could and did become a valued player as he matured and gained experience.

[Troublemaker]

I'm a bit worried about lack of quickness, but if we can have solid positioning, without breakdowns, it should mitigate a lot of those concerns.

Oh, I think overall, Duke's a quick team. I think what you mean is that we're not sure who will defend quick point guards, which is a concern of mine and others as well. Nationally, that means who will do an adequate to good job on guys like Mason/Graham of Kansas, De'Aaron Fox of Kentucky, Jalen Brunson of Villanova, etc? And within the ACC, we have to deal with guys like Joel Berry, Ja'Quan Newton, Dennis Smith, and Seth Allen.

[JasonEvans]

But then who sits? I just don't see Jefferson, Giles or Bolden sitting much, especially when Tatum will be our best SF. Good problem to have...

So, I think one of the things about "Phases" is that we need to accept that there will be a huge shift, likely some time in December, when Giles is ready to play. Prior to that, we are not going to be a team with a lot of high quality bigs. I suspect that Tatum will play a good bit of "4" (I know, DHNP*). From what we saw over the weekend, Bolden is still extremely raw. I expect him to play, but it may take some time for him to be more than 10-15 minutes in significant games. In fact, I won't be all that surprised if he and Jeter play a similar number of minutes, at least early in the year,.

So, I suspect we will see a lot of Matt, Jackson, Allen, and Kennard sharing the 1-3 positions early in the year with Tatum and Amile getting the lion's share of the minutes at the 4 and 5. Think about what a nightmare matchup Tatum is at the 4?!?! Yes, we will have to rebound as a team to make up for some of the size problems but Kennard and Allen are both good rebounders for guys who primarily play on the perimeter (each averaged better than a 10% DR% last season, by comparison, Matt Jones was just at 5.1%). Given his athleticism and strong body, I suspect Jackson may be a good D-rebounder too.

Now, when Giles is really ready, I think things will shift a bit. He and Jefferson and Tatum are all going to need 30+ minutes per game and that will certainly move Tatum to the 3 a good bit of the time. But the fist half-dozen or more games are likely to see a different Duke lineup from what we get in January and beyond.

-Jason "*-Duke Has No Positions" Evans

[superdave]

So, I think one of the things about "Phases" is that we need to accept that there will be a huge shift, likely some time in December, when Giles is ready to play. Prior to that, we are not going to be a team with a lot of high quality bigs. I suspect that Tatum will play a good bit of "4" (I know, DHNP*). From what we saw over the weekend, Bolden is still extremely raw. I expect him to play, but it may take some time for him to be more than 10-15 minutes in significant games. In fact, I won't be all that surprised if he and Jeter play a similar number of minutes, at least early in the year,.

So, I suspect we will see a lot of Matt, Jackson, Allen, and Kennard sharing the 1-3 positions early in the year with Tatum and Amile getting the lion's share of the minutes at the 4 and 5. Think about what a nightmare matchup Tatum is at the 4?!?! Yes, we will have to rebound as a team to make up for some of the size problems but Kennard and Allen are both good rebounders for guys who primarily play on the perimeter (each averaged better than a 10% DR% last season, by comparison, Matt Jones was just at 5.1%). Given his athleticism and strong body, I suspect Jackson may be a good D-rebounder too.

Now, when Giles is really ready, I think things will shift a bit. He and Jefferson and Tatum are all going to need 30+ minutes per game and that will certainly move Tatum to the 3 a good bit of the time. But the fist half-dozen or more games are likely to see a different Duke lineup from what we get in January and beyond.

-Jason "*-Duke Has No Positions" Evans

If Duke is going to maximize its defensive potential the first big game (Kansas), the upper classmen are going to play bigger minutes. That means Grayson, Matt and Amile and maybe Luke. We do not know yet whether Tatum can guard the 4 in crunchtime. Can Tatum check Braxton Bragg if Kansas stays big? Or will Duke need a second true big in addition to Amile? I think that is a big unknown as to how many minutes Tatum gets at the 4 at this point in the season.

I do think all this changes when Harry is available, and once the coaching staff knows what it can get from Bolden and Jeter. I guess I'm saying we know what we do not know, but we will know it after the Kansas game.

[-jk]

If Duke is going to maximize its defensive potential the first big game (Kansas), the upper classmen are going to play bigger minutes. That means Grayson, Matt and Amile and maybe Luke. We do not know yet whether Tatum can guard the 4 in crunchtime. Can Tatum check Braxton Bragg if Kansas stays big? Or will Duke need a second true big in addition to Amile? I think that is a big unknown as to how many minutes Tatum gets at the 4 at this point in the season.

I do think all this changes when Harry is available, and once the coaching staff knows what it can get from Bolden and Jeter. I guess I'm saying we know what we do not know, but we will know it after the Kansas game.

I have K's book on D (and his other one on O) from the mid-80's. Frosh just don't/can't get it... Can we bring back Foster for some zone work?

-jk

[jv001]

An incredible post, man! It was great to break down the incoming freshman and you nailed it with the questions that will be important to answer as we move through the preseason and advance towards November 11th. Here are the three things as I see it that are important to determine in this Phase 0:

1. How will the team gel? We saw with Countdown this past weekend and if you've been reviewing the videos that the team has been posting on social media throughout the summer and fall that the team seems to like each other and they already have camaraderie. It's a great mix of talent, youth, with just the right experience. How do they continue to gel on the court? That's what I will look for these next couple weeks. Who plays well with each other? Which rotations seem to be the most cohesive? Which players bring out the best game in others? No doubt that Coach K and the rest of the staff will be analyzing this during the two exhibition games.

2. There will be only one basketball. A gift and a curse is that there's only one basketball on the court. The gift is that we have probably 7 players who could get 20 points on any given night: Allen, Tatum, Giles, Kennard, Jefferson, Jones, and Jackson. The curse is that there just isn't enough shots for everyone to get 20 points every game. Who steps up if Allen has an off night? Who gets big on the glass when Jefferson isn't getting it done? Who's helping to distribute the ball? Who's locking down on D when Matt Jones gets into foul trouble? How will a player respond when getting 25 points in 30 minutes one night and then only getting 10 minutes the next? All that will come down to chemistry and leadership. I think we all feel the chemistry is there, and we have bonafide leaders in Jefferson, Jones and Allen to lead the team and show the freshmen how to tackle the inevitable January wall or to not get discouraged when they have an off night.

3. Taking Duke Defense to the next level. The key to this team will not be on offense, but on defense. They will take everyone's best shot every single night. Our offense may flounder at times and a couple guys may not have good nights shooting. But, our defense has to be there at all times and if we can do that, there will not be a team in the country that can mess with us. One team that I think this team can emulate is the 2000-2001 team. That team had the mix of talent and leadership that one needs, but one thing they did better than any team I've ever seen was talk on defense and concentrate on the defensive end to use that as momentum for their offensive output. Their defensive stops spurred their offense. They prided themselves on working hard on the defensive end every single possession, and I've never seen a team take pride in their defense, beating top 10 teams by 40. This team doesn't need to beat top 10 teams by 40, but this team has the ability to shut down any team they play if they concentrate on our patented Duke Defense, which will spur our offense to easy transition baskets. It will also be a lot of fun to watch.

Those are the things I'm looking for early on in the preseason. We don't have all our pieces together and while Harry Giles recovers, we will see a team that is still learning to properly play with each other. The results aren't important now. Getting sharper everyday is what I'm looking for.

I agree that defense will be key for this team to reach it's goal(/FF and NCAAC). We have some good defenders in Amile, Bolden, Giles, Matt and from the complement K gave Frank, I'll go out on a limb and add him to the list of good defenders. However it's the Duke team defense that's important. How fast the freshmen learn the defense is important. Each year I think this will be the season that Duke plays some full court pressure. Is this the year? GoDuke!

[NSDukeFan]

Oh, I think overall, Duke's a quick team. I think what you mean is that we're not sure who will defend quick point guards, which is a concern of mine and others as well. Nationally, that means who will do an adequate to good job on guys like Mason/Graham of Kansas, De'Aaron Fox of Kentucky, Jalen Brunson of Villanova, etc? And within the ACC, we have to deal with guys like Joel Berry, Ja'Quan Newton, Dennis Smith, and Seth Allen.

I don't know if I would classify this team as alarmingly quick. I hope Frank, Grayson and Matt do a good job in quick guards, because they will see a lot of them. Many teams play with 3 quick guards who won't be as good players as our guards but may be quicker. With basketball trending smaller and quicker the last few years, that is my biggest concern.
The flip side is that I feel this team will often have two big guys inside to challenge shots at the rim. I also believe Matt and Amile have the potential to lead a defense that talks really well and helps the freshmen understand positioning better than freshmen often do. I have low expectations for Harry that he will be Will Cauley-Stein on defense, able to guard every position and Karl-Anthony Towns on offense, able to efficiently score inside and out, hitting the odd jumper if necessary. All this after not playing for a year. Maybe I should temper my expectations. No matter what happens the team's last game of the year, I will enjoy this banner hunting journey. (I will be disappointed if this team doesn't hang any banners.)
By the way, awesome initial post, Newton_14.

[Kedsy]

One team that I think this team can emulate is the 2000-2001 team. That team had the mix of talent and leadership that one needs, but one thing they did better than any team I've ever seen was talk on defense and concentrate on the defensive end to use that as momentum for their offensive output. Their defensive stops spurred their offense. They prided themselves on working hard on the defensive end every single possession, and I've never seen a team take pride in their defense, beating top 10 teams by 40. This team doesn't need to beat top 10 teams by 40, but this team has the ability to shut down any team they play if they concentrate on our patented Duke Defense, which will spur our offense to easy transition baskets.

Well, the 2000-01 team had Shane Battier, which helped team defense immeasurably. And Chris Duhon, who was one of the better defensive PGs we've had at Duke. This year's team will not have anything close to either of those advantages. That said, the team in 2000-01 played nine top 10 teams and, while they did beat one of them by 40+, it certainly wasn't the norm. And it was singular (one game), not plural as you put it.

Here's the full list of teams in the top 10 when we played them in 2000-01:

#9 Illinois: Duke won by 1;
#3 Stanford: Duke lost by 1;
#10 UVa: Duke won by 42 (note that in the rematch, #12 UVa beat Duke by 2);
#9 Wake Forest: Duke won by 23 (note that in the rematch, #24 WF beat Duke by 2);
#8 Maryland: Duke won by 2 in OT (note that in the three rematches, #16 Md beat Duke by 11, Duke beat #11 Md by 2, and Duke beat #11 Md by 11, after what I believe was the biggest comeback in Final Four history);
#4 UNC: Duke lost by 2;
#4 UNC: Duke won by 14;
#6 UNC: Duke won by 26;
#5 Arizona: Duke won by 10.

In only 3 of the 9 games above did we exhibit particularly impressive defense (not surprisingly, the three games in which the final margin was 20+).

Overall, you're right that the 2000-01 team was good at forcing turnovers -- the 4th best Duke team at that in the past 20 seasons (behind the 2001-02 team, the 1997-98 team and the 1996-97 team). Looking at the rest of the four factors, the team was OK at opposing eFG% (8th best in past 20 seasons) and pretty good at opposing free throw rate (5th best in the past 20 seasons), but abysmal at defensive rebounding (3rd worst in the past 20 seasons, better only than 1996-97 and 1999-2000).

Personally, I don't expect this year's team to be defensively similar to the 2001 team. I expect this year's team will be much worse at forcing turnovers and much better at defensive rebounding. Hopefully better at opposing eFG% and who knows regarding opposing free throw rate. I expect this team will play more zone and won't force the opponents to start their offense nearly as far out as the 2001 team forced opponents. But I agree with you that this team has the potential to be strong at defensive communication and concentration, at least if our two seniors have anything to say about it.

[NM Duke Fan]

"But I agree with you that this team has the potential to be strong at defensive communication and concentration, at least if our two seniors have anything to say about it."

Your sentence to me sums up the essence of what I also see with the D, communication and focus should be helped immeasurably by the two seniors. From reading all the descriptions of the recent Blue White game, they were already showing some fine form in those deparments. This team may lack an exceptionally quick on the ball defender, and it does not have Shane. But hopefully with this intense senior leadership, an increasingly rare quality in college basketball, the D can get up to speed at a very healthy rate. The freshmen will be continually reminded of this essential element.

[Billy Dat]

As the national preview coverage hits hard and the polls start to come out, I have two additional thoughts:

-Can Grayson take the hype?
Grayson is the most high profile player in D1. He is being ranked by many as the best player in college basketball (not the best pro prospect, the best college player) and will carry that target. His tripping incidents also make him the most scrutinized college player. Duke is also preseason #1. Can he deal with it all?

-Can Duke take the hype?
This is Part B of the above. Duke is considered the best team on paper in a few years, and one of the best of recent vintage. That is on top of the usual target on Duke's back for being Duke. With that chance that we won't be full strength against Kansas and maybe even MSU, will an early season loss or two damage the psyche of this squad?

[David Bunkley]

As the national preview coverage hits hard and the polls start to come out, I have two additional thoughts:

-Can Grayson take the hype?
Grayson is the most high profile player in D1. He is being ranked by many as the best player in college basketball (not the best pro prospect, the best college player) and will carry that target. His tripping incidents also make him the most scrutinized college player. Duke is also preseason #1. Can he deal with it all?

-Can Duke take the hype?
This is Part B of the above. Duke is considered the best team on paper in a few years, and one of the best of recent vintage. That is on top of the usual target on Duke's back for being Duke. With that chance that we won't be full strength against Kansas and maybe even MSU, will an early season loss or two damage the psyche of this squad?

Yes, I believe Grayson has enough experience playing at a high level with a target on his back that the pressure that comes with his preseason hype should be manageable. Does this mean he'll put up all-world numbers? No. I expect Grayson's numbers to go down (except for assists) but his efficiency to remain high. This may cost him some post season awards, but I think he'll be fine with that as long as his draft stock isn't damaged and the team accomplishes their collective goal(s).

An early loss or two could happen, but it will be so far removed from conference and/or tournament play that I doubt it makes a difference on the final outcome of the season. More than likely, Duke will split those games (especially if Giles and Tatum don't play - which one or both of them may) and then destroy the rest of the non-conference, allowing them to enter conference play with a newly cleansed palate.

#GODUKE

[Troublemaker]

As the national preview coverage hits hard and the polls start to come out, I have two additional thoughts:

-Can Grayson take the hype?
Grayson is the most high profile player in D1. He is being ranked by many as the best player in college basketball (not the best pro prospect, the best college player) and will carry that target. His tripping incidents also make him the most scrutinized college player. Duke is also preseason #1. Can he deal with it all?

-Can Duke take the hype?
This is Part B of the above. Duke is considered the best team on paper in a few years, and one of the best of recent vintage. That is on top of the usual target on Duke's back for being Duke. With that chance that we won't be full strength against Kansas and maybe even MSU, will an early season loss or two damage the psyche of this squad?

I don't think we're coming into this season more over-hyped than the Kentucky team two seasons ago.

[Billy Dat]

Yes, I believe Grayson has enough experience playing at a high level with a target on his back that the pressure that comes with his preseason hype should be manageable. Does this mean he'll put up all-world numbers? No. I expect Grayson's numbers to go down (except for assists) but his efficiency to remain high. This may cost him some post season awards, but I think he'll be fine with that as long as his draft stock isn't damaged and the team accomplishes their collective goal(s).

My worry with him is an outburst. Guys are going to try and provoke him to get into his head and get him off his game. As we've seen, he has a totally different personality on and off the court. Asking him to "control the beast" as he faces constant provocation is a big ask. I, too, ultimately think he's up to it but he literally needs to be perfect for it to not become a national storyline and huge distraction.


I don't think we're coming into this season more over-hyped than the Kentucky team two seasons ago.

The primary difference, to me, is that there was legit UK undefeated hopes because the SEC was so weak. With a power-packed ACC, no one expects the same of Duke so it removes a few levels of hype. But, people talk about this team being equally to more talented than that UK team.

[superdave]

The first exhibition game was not very indicative of what will come. I hope the second one is, and that Grayson and Matt can play bigger minutes, if no other reason that we'll have more to talk about in this thread!

Question for those who have seen the team a couple of times - Who does Bolden remind you of and what is his ceiling for this year?

[Monmouth77]

The first exhibition game was not very indicative of what will come. I hope the second one is, and that Grayson and Matt can play bigger minutes, if no other reason that we'll have more to talk about in this thread!

Question for those who have seen the team a couple of times - Who does Bolden remind you of and what is his ceiling for this year?

I am not sure I qualify as having seen the team "a couple of times," but based on the first exhibition game (against a team without size), and looking for a comparison to prior Duke players, he reminds me a bit of (freshman) Elton Brand.

The huge hands, the easy way he posted up and caught the ball in the post, his ability to run the floor, his high motor, the aggressive way he looked to score through contact -- all of that reminded me a bit of freshman Brand. Physically, Brand was a bit bulkier, a bit shorter, and maybe a step or two quicker. And obviously he quickly blossomed into a rebounding and shot-blocking powerhouse-- which would be a great aspiration for Bolden. But I might guess that the coaching staff has shown Bolden some Elton tape, and I'd say freshman Elton is a hopeful aspiration. Although, it must be said, that Elton did not have to play with freshman Chris Webber (aka Harry Giles) so I'm not sure Elton's impact and stats are a reasonable aspiration.

[Troublemaker]

Question for those who have seen the team a couple of times - Who does Bolden remind you of and what is his ceiling for this year?

I'm not sure there is a great K-era analogue. He's a center that will play center in the NBA as well, and most of Coach K's great college centers have gone on to become NBA PFs. Bolden is a true center that will play a lot as a freshman, can score, and (I think) will make a huge impact as a shotblocker. Mike Gminksi would be my comparison in order to check all those boxes.

[Kedsy]

I am not sure I qualify as having seen the team "a couple of times," but based on the first exhibition game (against a team without size), and looking for a comparison to prior Duke players, he reminds me a bit of (freshman) Elton Brand.

The huge hands, the easy way he posted up and caught the ball in the post, his ability to run the floor, his high motor, the aggressive way he looked to score through contact -- all of that reminded me a bit of freshman Brand. Physically, Brand was a bit bulkier, a bit shorter, and maybe a step or two quicker. And obviously he quickly blossomed into a rebounding and shot-blocking powerhouse-- which would be a great aspiration for Bolden. But I might guess that the coaching staff has shown Bolden some Elton tape, and I'd say freshman Elton is a hopeful aspiration. Although, it must be said, that Elton did not have to play with freshman Chris Webber (aka Harry Giles) so I'm not sure Elton's impact and stats are a reasonable aspiration.

Having watched only the Blue/White scrimmage and the first exhibition game (although I suppose two times does constitute "a couple"), I'm a bit less bullish on Marques's prospects. He played better in the exhibition than in Blue/White, but I didn't see a "high motor" or a strong ability to run the floor. To the contrary, I think his lack of speed and quickness could be an issue against better competition. He may get beat on breaks and might lose his man on backdoor cuts.

I also think his post footwork doesn't look good enough to dominate legit Division I centers the way he dominated high school and (to an extent) Virginia State. Personally, I don't see him as being anywhere near freshman Elton Brand or Mike Gminski. He does appear to have good shot-blocking instincts. I think that with him anchoring the post, our perimeter players might be able to take more chances in the passing lanes with the comfort of knowing he's back there to erase some mistakes.

In that vein, if I was forced to pick a Duke analog for his freshman ceiling, I might say a freshman Shelden Williams, though I'm a little doubtful Marques will reach that ceiling this season. If he stays multiple seasons, I think he has the potential to be a good one, with a correspondingly higher ceiling (hopefully improving as much as Shelden did in his four years).

[flyingdutchdevil]

Having watched only the Blue/White scrimmage and the first exhibition game (although I suppose two times does constitute "a couple"), I'm a bit less bullish on Marques's prospects. He played better in the exhibition than in Blue/White, but I didn't see a "high motor" or a strong ability to run the floor. To the contrary, I think his lack of speed and quickness could be an issue against better competition. He may get beat on breaks and might lose his man on backdoor cuts.

I also think his post footwork doesn't look good enough to dominate legit Division I centers the way he dominated high school and (to an extent) Virginia State. Personally, I don't see him as being anywhere near freshman Elton Brand or Mike Gminski. He does appear to have good shot-blocking instincts. I think that with him anchoring the post, our perimeter players might be able to take more chances in the passing lanes with the comfort of knowing he's back there to erase some mistakes.

In that vein, if I was forced to pick a Duke analog for his freshman ceiling, I might say a freshman Shelden Williams, though I'm a little doubtful Marques will reach that ceiling this season. If he stays multiple seasons, I think he has the potential to be a good one, with a correspondingly higher ceiling (hopefully improving as much as Shelden did in his four years).

You may be right. But it's worth noting that Marques doesn't need to have good shot blocking instincts to be successful. IIRC, he is the longest player in Duke history, with a standing reach of 9'4.5" (Okafor had a reach of 9'2"5). He won't need to be quick or as mobile to affect shots; his length will be downright devastating to guards and big men.

Also, he's athletic enough and has good timing for alley oops and hand-offs, in the limited time that we've seen him against sub-par competition. If he's playing with Jayson at the 4, I can see how the spread offense will create opportunities for Marques. The problem is incorporating a second big, like Amile or Giles, that could hurt Marques offensive contributions.

Regardless, so happy that he's on this team. He's a biiiiiiiiiig dude.

[MChambers]

Having watched only the Blue/White scrimmage and the first exhibition game (although I suppose two times does constitute "a couple"), I'm a bit less bullish on Marques's prospects. He played better in the exhibition than in Blue/White, but I didn't see a "high motor" or a strong ability to run the floor. To the contrary, I think his lack of speed and quickness could be an issue against better competition. He may get beat on breaks and might lose his man on backdoor cuts.

I also think his post footwork doesn't look good enough to dominate legit Division I centers the way he dominated high school and (to an extent) Virginia State. Personally, I don't see him as being anywhere near freshman Elton Brand or Mike Gminski. He does appear to have good shot-blocking instincts. I think that with him anchoring the post, our perimeter players might be able to take more chances in the passing lanes with the comfort of knowing he's back there to erase some mistakes.

In that vein, if I was forced to pick a Duke analog for his freshman ceiling, I might say a freshman Shelden Williams, though I'm a little doubtful Marques will reach that ceiling this season. If he stays multiple seasons, I think he has the potential to be a good one, with a correspondingly higher ceiling (hopefully improving as much as Shelden did in his four years).

I certainly agree that Brand is not a good comp. Brand had very quick feet and an amazing motor. And Gminski had a very strong freshman year.

But I think Bolden could be better than freshman Shelden. I think he'll foul less, and he's got better low post moves.

[ipatent]

Lastly, which player or players will surprise us in a good way?

Don’t look at it just from the standpoint of which kid will play better than we expected… look at it also from a standpoint of, will one or more of them show us a skillset we didn’t realize they had?

These are some of the key things I will be watching for as we kick off this season. I know some/many of the questions will not be answered early on, but they are things I believe are important for this team to max out on its talents and reach its goals. Give us your input on how you see these things playing out and also what questions do you have as we kick off the season and what are you looking for early on and then later?

Amile's back to the basket game. It was starting to come around last year before the injury. Also if Luke and/or Grayson can show playmaking skills, and keep quick guards out of the lane it would be helpful.

[Newton_14]

Amile's back to the basket game. It was starting to come around last year before the injury. Also if Luke and/or Grayson can show playmaking skills, and keep quick guards out of the lane it would be helpful.

Good ideas... So far in this category, the following have been tossed out:
1. Amile on the Perimeter/Point Forward/Facilitator/PG Relief?
2. Luke/Grayson (I'll add Matt & Frank as well) Playmaking Skills?
3. Amile Back To The Basket/Post Scorer?
4. Javin- Part Time Defensive Specialist? (Good enough to earn him minutes he otherwise will not get?)

[Troublemaker]

Good ideas... So far in this category, the following have been tossed out:
1. Amile on the Perimeter/Point Forward/Facilitator/PG Relief?
2. Luke/Grayson (I'll add Matt & Frank as well) Playmaking Skills?
3. Amile Back To The Basket/Post Scorer?
4. Javin- Part Time Defensive Specialist? (Good enough to earn him minutes he otherwise will not get?)

So, good surprises, huh? I can't think of anything that would be earth-shattering or that would surprise the vast majority of us.

I think there's a chance the team defense could come together better and more quickly than some believe. I like our overall size and shotblocking a lot. I like that Marques was coached by a great defensive coach in high school (same school that Matt came from), as Spatola mentioned on one of the broadcasts, so I think Marques will be ready sooner on that end of the floor. I like some of the defense I've seen from Frank and Javin. And I like that we have a lot of experience in the rotation.

[chadlee989]

I know everyone was trying to compare him to a former duke guy. I just don't see anybody in the past 25 or so years i have been watching to compare him to. To me the one guy that comes to mind so far is DeAndre Jordan and the way he is used by the Clippers. Shot blocking and ally oops for the most part to me will be his roll on this team.

[Troublemaker]

The primary difference, to me, is that there was legit UK undefeated hopes because the SEC was so weak. With a power-packed ACC, no one expects the same of Duke so it removes a few levels of hype. But, people talk about this team being equally to more talented than that UK team.

I think the 2015 Kentucky team being so prominent in recent memory will help to control the hype around this Duke team. I think throughout the season, when you see ESPN analysts start to hype us up real good, they will sometimes stop themselves in their own tracks and say, "... but remember that Kentucky team in 2015...even they lost." I think the media will maintain a decent perspective on this Duke team thanks to that Kentucky team. And I think we have great experience and leadership with championship experience and a great coaching staff to help the young guys maintain perspective as well. I think handling the hype will go pretty smoothly for this team.

[Kedsy]

I think the 2015 Kentucky team being so prominent in recent memory will help to control the hype around this Duke team. I think throughout the season, when you see ESPN analysts start to hype us up real good, they will sometimes stop themselves in their own tracks and say, "... but remember that Kentucky team in 2015...even they lost." I think the media will maintain a decent perspective on this Duke team thanks to that Kentucky team. And I think we have great experience and leadership with championship experience and a great coaching staff to help the young guys maintain perspective as well. I think handling the hype will go pretty smoothly for this team.

The idea that a team could go undefeated through the regular season, win a Big Six conference tournament, make the Final Four, and then lose a close game in the national semifinals... and become the poster child for a disappointing season that did not live up to the hype -- simply boggles my mind.

[Troublemaker]

The idea that a team could go undefeated through the regular season, win a Big Six conference tournament, make the Final Four, and then lose a close game in the national semifinals... and become the poster child for a disappointing season that did not live up to the hype -- simply boggles my mind.

Can't disagree with that. Hey, I'm not saying it's fair...

[gep]

My worry with him is an outburst. Guys are going to try and provoke him to get into his head and get him off his game. As we've seen, he has a totally different personality on and off the court. Asking him to "control the beast" as he faces constant provocation is a big ask. I, too, ultimately think he's up to it but he literally needs to be perfect for it to not become a national storyline and huge distraction.

...



Maybe I was just looking for something like this too critically, but in the Virginia State game, I thought that at times, even they were able to frustrate Grayson. Especially the screen/bump/hit which threw him to the floor... IIRC, Grayson spent a bit of time talking with the ref after that play... (going into timeout).

[flyingdutchdevil]

Maybe I was just looking for something like this too critically, but in the Virginia State game, I thought that at times, even they were able to frustrate Grayson. Especially the screen/bump/hit which threw him to the floor... IIRC, Grayson spent a bit of time talking with the ref after that play... (going into timeout).

It's gonna be an issue. The scouting report on Grayson is, "Do annoying things to him that are borderline fouls/actual fouls and there is a strong chance that Grayson does something stupid." It's the liability that comes with the amazing assets Grayson brings to the team.

The question is not whether Grayson can keep his emotions in check but rather will his outburst be minor or major. I'm praying for the minor.

[Ichabod Drain]

It's gonna be an issue. The scouting report on Grayson is, "Do annoying things to him that are borderline fouls/actual fouls and there is a strong chance that Grayson does something stupid." It's the liability that comes with the amazing assets Grayson brings to the team.

The question is not whether Grayson can keep his emotions in check but rather will his outburst be minor or major. I'm praying for the minor.

He's such a great player but from the scrimmage and the exhibition game it was clearly visible when he was frustrated. Thought he might be a little better about it this year but no sign of that yet. It may be up to the staff to toe the line of using that energy but also keeping him in check.

[flyingdutchdevil]

He's such a great player but from the scrimmage and the exhibition game it was clearly visible when he was frustrated. Thought he might be a little better about it this year but no sign of that yet. It may be up to the staff to toe the line of using that energy but also keeping him in check.

According to Grayson, it's uncontrollable. Once he steps on the court, he's just a different person. I don't think there is much the staff can do. I think it's a maturation process and will just take time.

Personally, I love his passion and, if there is an outburst here of there, I'll take it. I just hope Grayson doesn't take the backlash too personally (which, according to the ESPN segment, he does. Hope that changes).

[Ichabod Drain]

According to Grayson, it's uncontrollable. Once he steps on the court, he's just a different person. I don't think there is much the staff can do. I think it's a maturation process and will just take time.

Personally, I love his passion and, if there is an outburst here of there, I'll take it. I just hope Grayson doesn't take the backlash too personally (which, according to the ESPN segment, he does. Hope that changes).

They can take him out of the game. I don't think (or at least hope) it will get to that point but it would be pretty bad if that dive he took at Amile's knees was for instance at Josh Jackson's knees on national television.

[superdave]

The idea that a team could go undefeated through the regular season, win a Big Six conference tournament, make the Final Four, and then lose a close game in the national semifinals... and become the poster child for a disappointing season that did not live up to the hype -- simply boggles my mind.

The disappointment comes from the derangement. The fact that some fans would get a 40-0 tattoo boggles the mind as well.

If any one on DBR wants to go that route, please raise your hand now so we can talk you out of it.

[Edouble]

The disappointment comes from the derangement. The fact that some fans would get a 40-0 tattoo boggles the mind as well.

If any one on DBR wants to go that route, please raise your hand now so we can talk you out of it.

I, for one, will not be getting a 2015 Kentucky 40-0 tattoo.

[superdave]

They can take him out of the game. I don't think (or at least hope) it will get to that point but it would be pretty bad if that dive he took at Amile's knees was for instance at Josh Jackson's knees on national television.

I do think yanking Grayson for 30 seconds to let him cool off on the bench is the best thing to do in-game. But he needs to both be coached out of letting people get under his skin, and he needs to be held accountable by his teammates during the rest of the week. I am hopeful his eyes are open to what he will see this season.

[flyingdutchdevil]

The disappointment comes from the derangement. The fact that some fans would get a 40-0 tattoo boggles the mind as well.

If any one on DBR wants to go that route, please raise your hand now so we can talk you out of it.

I think the more important question is, does anyone think we're going 40-0? I think there is <0.01% chance we do so. We will lose, with a brutal ACC this year. Also, Kansas is arguably ahead of us right now due to experience.

Frankly speaking, I'd rather us lose a few games heading into the tournament so that we know what it feels like rather than coming into the tournament with a feeling of invincibility. Kentucky had that and backfired.

[ChillinDuke]

As the national preview coverage hits hard and the polls start to come out, I have two additional thoughts:

-Can Grayson take the hype?
Grayson is the most high profile player in D1. He is being ranked by many as the best player in college basketball (not the best pro prospect, the best college player) and will carry that target. His tripping incidents also make him the most scrutinized college player. Duke is also preseason #1. Can he deal with it all?

-Can Duke take the hype?
This is Part B of the above. Duke is considered the best team on paper in a few years, and one of the best of recent vintage. That is on top of the usual target on Duke's back for being Duke. With that chance that we won't be full strength against Kansas and maybe even MSU, will an early season loss or two damage the psyche of this squad?

While I agree that both are reasonable thoughts, I'm not concerned about Part B. Duke traditionally handles the hype year in and year out. #1, #2, Top-10, Top-25, NCAA Tourney births, favorites, streaks, and on and on. Coach K, if nothing else (and he assuredly is a lot else), is a master at getting his players and teams mentally prepared to handle everything, including the kitchen sink.

- Chillin

[grad_devil]

He's such a great player but from the scrimmage and the exhibition game it was clearly visible when he was frustrated. Thought he might be a little better about it this year but no sign of that yet. It may be up to the staff to toe the line of using that energy but also keeping him in check.

After watching the exhibition, I'm hoping for a Bobby Hurly-esque "highlight" video sometime this season. Grayson's body language was...not ideal. I found myself getting frustrated at him for how hard he was trying to "sell" the bump and other contact. I know that's just Grayson, but if it was irritating me, it was also drawing the attention of officials/opponents/etc. I believe if he continues to work so hard to sell these fouls, ultimately he will reduce his effectiveness.

Or, I'm just old. Or both.

[Edouble]

I think the more important question is, does anyone think we're going 40-0? I think there is <0.01% chance we do so. We will lose, with a brutal ACC this year. Also, Kansas is arguably ahead of us right now due to experience.

Frankly speaking, I'd rather us lose a few games heading into the tournament so that we know what it feels like rather than coming into the tournament with a feeling of invincibility. Kentucky had that and backfired.

I'll bite.

I think this is our best chance in years. I'd put our chances somewhere around 15-25%, which I think is reasonable. Coach K said that he thought we had a shot at going undefeated in 2011 if Kyrie had not been injured, so I would bet that it has crossed his mind, particularly with him publicly stating that the goal of this team is to win a National Championship. Harry's condition upon his return, and overall team health, obviously have a lot to do with how likely this is to happen.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I'll bite.

I think this is our best chance in years. I'd put our chances somewhere around 15-25%, which I think is reasonable. Coach K said that he thought we had a shot at going undefeated in 2011 if Kyrie had not been injured, so I would bet that it has crossed his mind, particularly with him publicly stating that the goal of this team is to win a National Championship. Harry's condition upon his return, and overall team health, obviously have a lot to do with how likely this is to happen.

For what it's worth, assuming that Duke has a 96% of winning each game, the probability of going undefeated is 20%. You're telling me that Duke, on average, has a 96% of winning each game (I know the stats don't work out that way, but it's close)? Assuming we have a 99% of winning every game except against Kansas, Mich St, at UNC, at Louisville, at UVA, the FF game, and the natty game, where the probability of winning each of those games is 80%, Duke would only have a 15% chance of going undefeated.

I don't buy those odds, but I love your optimism.

Going undefeated is insanely difficult. I disagree with Kedsy on a lot of things (usually UNC-related), but I completely agree with him on UK's accomplishments in 2015-16 and the difficult surrounding going 38-0.

[Ichabod Drain]

Kenpom has our odds on every game and right now he has us at 0.3% chance of going undefeated. That's with only one game with less than a 50% chance of us winning. At Carolina, 49%.

Our road ACC schedule is killer.

[Troublemaker]

Yeah, I would say 15-25% is a reasonable guess for Duke's chances of just winning the national championship. And it's closer to 15% this far out from March; as we get closer to March, if Duke has clicked as a team and has everyone healthy, you can raise the odds.

[Spanarkel]

Our road ACC schedule is killer.


"Iron sharpens iron."

[slower]

Maybe I was just looking for something like this too critically, but in the Virginia State game, I thought that at times, even they were able to frustrate Grayson. Especially the screen/bump/hit which threw him to the floor... IIRC, Grayson spent a bit of time talking with the ref after that play... (going into timeout).
Absolutely, they will go after Grayson. Really wish we had a Dahntay Jones or Meagher type to use as a "bodyguard".

[flyingdutchdevil]

Absolutely, they will go after Grayson. Really wish we had a Dahntay Jones or Meagher type to use as a "bodyguard".

I'm expecting Matt Jones to do that this year. Amile will also help, but he seems to be too nice. I hope Jones shuts it down when teams go after Grayson.

[Troublemaker]

One of the major online sportsbooks is offering a prop bet on whether Duke goes undefeated:

https://i.sli.mg/TtsHTT.png

Those numbers on the right mean you can get paid 40-to-1 (bet $10, win $400) if Duke goes undefeated. That's a great bet if you believe Duke has a 15-25% chance of going 40-0 because [15-25%] equates to an odds range of [~6-to-1 to 3-to-1] so getting offered 40-to-1 looks awesome.

[jimsumner]

I absolutely do not expect 40-0.

I don't even "expect" a national title. No one is even money against the field. No one.

Duke has a better chance, IMO, than anyone else.

But not a better chance than everyone else.

Even a FF isn't guaranteed. Neither 2002-Jason Williams, Carlos Boozer, Mike Dunleavy, Dahntay Jones, Chris Duhon, Daniel Ewing--nor 2011--Kyrie Irving, Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler, Mason Plumlee, Miles Plumlee, Seth Curry, Ryan Kelly, Andre Dawkins--made it past the Sweet Sixteen and all 14 of the above listed names suited up in a regular-season NBA game.

Crazy talent. But not crazy results.

The Big Dance is a crapshoot and nothing is guaranteed. My plan is to enjoy the season and worry about March when March shows up on the calendar.

[superdave]

Kenpom has our odds on every game and right now he has us at 0.3% chance of going undefeated. That's with only one game with less than a 50% chance of us winning. At Carolina, 49%.

Our road ACC schedule is killer.

KenPom is not taking into account the fact that Unc may not field a team this year and vacate the last several decades is he? :cool:

[flyingdutchdevil]

KenPom is not taking into account the fact that Unc may not field a team this year and vacate the last several decades is he? :cool:

Well, the chances of the NCAA punishing UNC are probably 0.3% as well...

[English]

I think the more important question is, does anyone think we're going 40-0? I think there is <0.01% chance we do so. We will lose, with a brutal ACC this year. Also, Kansas is arguably ahead of us right now due to experience.

While it's certainly not a way to measure the mathematical probability, Vegas* has the odds of Duke going undefeated at 100-1. While it's overwhelmingly unlikely, it's slightly higher than the hundredth of a percent you're giving it. Admittedly, I will NOT be placing that bet.

*The sportsbook I frequent.

[Indoor66]

While it's certainly not a way to measure the mathematical probability, Vegas* has the odds of Duke going undefeated at 100-1. While it's overwhelmingly unlikely, it's slightly higher than the hundredth of a percent you're giving it. Admittedly, I will NOT be placing that bet.

*The sportsbook I frequent.

How about a $25 flyer? Heck, I put $25 down on Duke to win it all every year. Hit in 2010 & 2015 and won enough to cover other years. :cool:

[Edouble]

While it's certainly not a way to measure the mathematical probability, Vegas* has the odds of Duke going undefeated at 100-1. While it's overwhelmingly unlikely, it's slightly higher than the hundredth of a percent you're giving it. Admittedly, I will NOT be placing that bet.

*The sportsbook I frequent.

I wonder what the odds were of Florida winning back-to-back NCs in November, 2005.

I bring this up because I never thought we'd see a repeat champion again.

Kentucky went 38-0. The '99 team went 37-2. '97 Kansas came up short. St. Joe's 2004... I think every few years, someone comes close.

Yes, it's extremely difficult, but eventually a great team will get all the breaks it needs and it will happen. Maybe it could be us this year. The odds are not good, but I don't think they are completely astronomical when you have depth, defense, and coaching.

Anyway, I do not mean to derail the thread, but it is something that has been on my mind, whereas in most seasons it is not. We look good on paper, but I am ready to see more games!

[Nrrrrvous]

It's gonna be an issue. The scouting report on Grayson is, "Do annoying things to him that are borderline fouls/actual fouls and there is a strong chance that Grayson does something stupid." It's the liability that comes with the amazing assets Grayson brings to the team.

The question is not whether Grayson can keep his emotions in check but rather will his outburst be minor or major. I'm praying for the minor.


He's such a great player but from the scrimmage and the exhibition game it was clearly visible when he was frustrated. Thought he might be a little better about it this year but no sign of that yet. It may be up to the staff to toe the line of using that energy but also keeping him in check.


With maturation, Grayson will be able to take that frustration/anger out in basketball plays. I don't remember the game but I remember JJ getting hit hard on a cut across the lane, pretty sure it was against Maryland, ending up on his rear. Next trip down the floor he drains one from 30' and glares at the big guy who had hit him.
Or, of course, there's the Gerald Henderson dunk on the play after Nolan was knocked out. Tell me that wasn't an "angry" dunk!

Hopefully sooner, rather than later, Grayson can channel that energy into his game.

[NSDukeFan]

With maturation, Grayson will be able to take that frustration/anger out in basketball plays. I don't remember the game but I remember JJ getting hit hard on a cut across the lane, pretty sure it was against Maryland, ending up on his rear. Next trip down the floor he drains one from 30' and glares at the big guy who had hit him.
Or, of course, there's the Gerald Henderson dunk on the play after Nolan was knocked out. Tell me that wasn't an "angry" dunk!

Hopefully sooner, rather than later, Grayson can channel that energy into his game.

It seems like there have been a bunch of posts questioning whether Grayson will be able to control himself with all the scrutiny he will be facing. I thought he did okay last year when he was unfairly vilified for what would have been minor incidents to anyone else. He seemed to do okay as a target and became an All-American. He can play and he is intense. He will be in the spotlight again this year. I hope it is all positive but if the media blows something up again this year and he is again an All-American, that's fine. He'll be fine. Go Grayson!

[slower]

It seems like there have been a bunch of posts questioning whether Grayson will be able to control himself with all the scrutiny he will be facing. I thought he did okay last year when he was unfairly vilified for what would have been minor incidents to anyone else. He seemed to do okay as a target and became an All-American. He can play and he is intense. He will be in the spotlight again this year. I hope it is all positive but if the media blows something up again this year and he is again an All-American, that's fine. He'll be fine. Go Grayson!

Listen, if Grayson does anything even REMOTELY sketchy, he will get hammered in the press. Count on it.

[NSDukeFan]

Listen, if Grayson does anything even REMOTELY sketchy, he will get hammered in the press. Count on it.

I believe that he will still play at an All-American level around any noise.

[sagegrouse]

It seems like there have been a bunch of posts questioning whether Grayson will be able to control himself with all the scrutiny he will be facing. I thought he did okay last year when he was unfairly vilified for what would have been minor incidents to anyone else. He seemed to do okay as a target and became an All-American. He can play and he is intense. He will be in the spotlight again this year. I hope it is all positive but if the media blows something up again this year and he is again an All-American, that's fine. He'll be fine. Go Grayson!

In both incidents, the amount of physical violence was less than what routinely occurred in the lunch line when I was in the first grade, and which, when observed by a teacher, WENT UNPUNISHED. "You boys behave yourselves."

[devildeac]

In both incidents, the amount of physical violence was less than what routinely occurred in the lunch line when I was in the first grade, and which, when observed by a teacher, WENT UNPUNISHED. "You boys behave yourselves."

You weren't on national TV with DUKE on your shirt.

;)

(what a hoodlum :rolleyes: )

[flyingdutchdevil]

It seems like there have been a bunch of posts questioning whether Grayson will be able to control himself with all the scrutiny he will be facing. I thought he did okay last year when he was unfairly vilified for what would have been minor incidents to anyone else. He seemed to do okay as a target and became an All-American. He can play and he is intense. He will be in the spotlight again this year. I hope it is all positive but if the media blows something up again this year and he is again an All-American, that's fine. He'll be fine. Go Grayson!

Grayson was vilified for two trips. Are you saying those two trips are "okay"? They were bad non-basketball plays. The media knows it, Duke knows it, Grayson's family knows it, and Grayson knows it.

Grayson's energy is a wonderful thing, but I am worried when he gets heated up. Hell, he got heated up during an exhibition game!!!!! I love that passion, but come on Grayson! Players are going to target you on national TV and you can't burst out like that.

[Spanarkel]

Grayson was vilified for two trips. Are you saying those two trips are "okay"? They were bad non-basketball plays. The media knows it, Duke knows it, Grayson's family knows it, and Grayson knows it.

Grayson's energy is a wonderful thing, but I am worried when he gets heated up. Hell, he got heated up during an exhibition game!!!!! I love that passion, but come on Grayson! Players are going to target you on national TV and you can't burst out like that.

Since Grayson appears to be a lover of the Bible(from his Twitter account), hopefully he can follow James 1:19("...be slow to anger...")during the heat of battle.

[cato]

Grayson was vilified for two trips. Are you saying those two trips are "okay"? They were bad non-basketball plays. The media knows it, Duke knows it, Grayson's family knows it, and Grayson knows it.

Grayson's energy is a wonderful thing, but I am worried when he gets heated up. Hell, he got heated up during an exhibition game!!!!! I love that passion, but come on Grayson! Players are going to target you on national TV and you can't burst out like that.

Grayson introduced himself to the country when he got heated up in spring of 2015. EVERYONE, should worry when he gets heated up. Particularly Duke opponents.

Grayson is a badass. Every Duke title team has had one.

Just don't trip people. Please.

[NSDukeFan]

Grayson was vilified for two trips. Are you saying those two trips are "okay"? They were bad non-basketball plays. The media knows it, Duke knows it, Grayson's family knows it, and Grayson knows it.

Grayson's energy is a wonderful thing, but I am worried when he gets heated up. Hell, he got heated up during an exhibition game!!!!! I love that passion, but come on Grayson! Players are going to target you on national TV and you can't burst out like that.

Sorry for the confusion. I wasn't commenting on the trips, except to say they got blown out of proportion by the media. I think they showed poor sportsmanship and am fine with any reasonable punishment for those actions in line with what any other player in the country might receive. What I thought was okay was the way that Grayson played last year, even though he was heavily scrutinized and portrayed as a villain, which I though was definitely not okay. That's why I am not concerned about how Grayson is going to handle being watched very closely. He has been there and performed at an All-American level and I hope and expect he will again.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Sorry for the confusion. I wasn't commenting on the trips, except to say they got blown out of proportion by the media. I think they showed poor sportsmanship and am fine with any reasonable punishment for those actions in line with what any other player in the country might receive. What I thought was okay was the way that Grayson played last year, even though he was heavily scrutinized and portrayed as a villain, which I though was definitely not okay. That's why I am not concerned about how Grayson is going to handle being watched very closely. He has been there and performed at an All-American level and I hope and expect he will again.

Oh. I couldn't agree more. I'm not worried about Grayson's in-game performance but more about technical fouls, ejections, and, god forbid, game suspensions. Given the lens and microscope that Grayson is under, every push, poke, pull, or trip will absolutely be scrutinized and likely blown out of proportion.

[Newton_14]

Oh. I couldn't agree more. I'm not worried about Grayson's in-game performance but more about technical fouls, ejections, and, god forbid, game suspensions. Given the lens and microscope that Grayson is under, every push, poke, pull, or trip will absolutely be scrutinized and likely blown out of proportion. I think the point is he did not get any of those things last year. Why would he this year? People are projecting stuff onto the kid he has never done.

[BLPOG]

I think the point is he did not get any of those things last year. Why would he this year? People are projecting stuff onto the kid he has never done.

Unless I'm mistaken, flagrant 1 and flagrant 2 are also technical fouls.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I think the point is he did not get any of those things last year. Why would he this year? People are projecting stuff onto the kid he has never done.

Because I can't recall a player being under a microscope like Grayson is this year. IMO, if Grayson trips another player or goes something like push an opposing player who is getting in his face (and you can count on that this year), then it will warrant a technical at the minimum.

We worry about Giles, no PG, defense, etc. I think Grayson's attitude can be put in there as well, as it could easily cause problems.

For the record, I am a huge Grayson fan. He is an offensive guru whose combination of on-court performance and academics hasn't been matched since...Trajan Langdon? He is the definition of student-athlete. He is one of the only Blue Devils who may have gotten into Duke as a non-athlete. But it's safe to say that Grayson needs to cool it at times, because it's hurting his reputation and could lead to fouls/ejections/etc that are detrimental to the team. Hell, Grayson said this himself to ESPN.

[UrinalCake]

Having watched only the Blue/White scrimmage and the first exhibition game (although I suppose two times does constitute "a couple"), I'm a bit less bullish on Marques's prospects. He played better in the exhibition than in Blue/White, but I didn't see a "high motor" or a strong ability to run the floor. To the contrary, I think his lack of speed and quickness could be an issue against better competition. He may get beat on breaks and might lose his man on backdoor cuts.

From what I've read, his "motor" has always been a question mark for Bolden. In high school he wouldn't go hard all the time, and perhaps that was part of why he wasn't ranked more highly (although he was the highest-rated center). I've also heard people say since coming to Duke that he doesn't talk on defense, at all. Like he remains totally silent. We know that communication is something K emphasizes and values, so we'll have to see how this plays out. Having such a vocal leader in a Amile next to him may help Bolden, or it may hinder his own development in that area.

He does have amazing physical tools, but I think he'll be a work in progress throughout the season. Not like Okafor who came in pretty much ready to go from day one.

[Spanarkel]

Grayson introduced himself to the country when he got heated up in spring of 2015. EVERYONE, should worry when he gets heated up. Particularly Duke opponents.

Grayson is a badass. Every Duke title team has had one.




Not sure if this applies to the '09-'10 champs. Kyle Singler was iron but not in the enforcer/"badass" mode. I don't see Zoubek(although his legal picks were formidable), Lance, Nolan, Jon or MP1/2 as this type of player.

[English]

...He does have amazing physical tools, but I think he'll be a work in progress throughout the season. Not like Okafor who came in pretty much ready to go from day one.

One nit: On offense, a resounding YES. On defense, Oak had only played zone defense, and was most certainly NOT a finished product (still isn't).

I'm hopeful we see a better defensive player in Bolden vs. Okafor right out of the gate. Perhaps misguided, but that's my hope. I completely agree that Bolden will need significantly more offensive development in comparison to Oak. Luckily for Bolden, and for us, is that Bolden will not be relied upon as the first or second option on offense right away unless he's capable and earns that distinction.

[slower]

Not sure if this applies to the '09-'10 champs. Kyle Singler was iron but not in the enforcer/"badass" mode. I don't see Zoubek(although his legal picks were formidable), Lance, Nolan, Jon or MP1/2 as this type of player.

Oh, Kyle stepped in to quite a few confrontations, as I recall. He may have been calm and composed about it, but he sure as hell never backed down from one. He WAS a complete badass.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Oh, Kyle stepped in to quite a few confrontations, as I recall. He may have been calm and composed about it, but he sure as hell never backed down from one. He WAS a complete badass.

I do not recall this. I like the idea that Kyle was made of iron but not of the "enforcer" variety. Henderson was more of that, with his knock-out punch against "Big Man in Little China" and his dunk against Maryland.

I like Kyle, but I'd rather have Henderson in a fight.

[devildeac]

I do not recall this. I like the idea that Kyle was made of iron but not of the "enforcer" variety. Henderson was more of that, with his knock-out punch against "Big Man in Little China" and his dunk against Maryland.

I like Kyle, but I'd rather have Henderson in a fight.

From what I've heard/read, I'd take A. Heyman.