PDA

View Full Version : UNC Recruiting



Olympic Fan
09-26-2016, 01:50 PM
UNC just landed the third member of its 2017 recruiting class -- three star power forward Brandon Huffman of Raleigh's Word of God Academy:

http://247sports.com/Player/Brandon-Huffman-91667

That's two three stars and a four star (according to 247's composite rankings) in Roy's latest class. Even with the scandal in his rear-view window, Roy continues to recruit like a mid-major. As of now, they have one five-star recruit (No. 19 Tony Bradley from the Class of 2016) in the last three recruiting classes.

JasonEvans
09-26-2016, 02:05 PM
UNC just landed the third member of its 2017 recruiting class -- three star power forward Brandon Huffman of Raleigh's Word of God Academy:

http://247sports.com/Player/Brandon-Huffman-91667

That's two three stars and a four star (according to 247's composite rankings) in Roy's latest class. Even with the scandal in his rear-view window, Roy continues to recruit like a mid-major. As of now, they have one five-star recruit (No. 19 Tony Bradley from the Class of 2016) in the last three recruiting classes.

I am quite pleased for Carolina to continue to beat schools like Rutgers, New Mexico, Old Dominion, Central Florida, and TCU for players.

El_Diablo
09-26-2016, 02:29 PM
In addition to having two unranked prospects in the 2017 class, the Cheaters have also burned roster spots on the #57 and #68 players in the class of 2018, per Scout.

Olympic Fan
09-26-2016, 04:05 PM
Put it this way -- out of Roy's last eight recruits, he's landed exactly one five-star prospect -- freshman Tony Bradley (although, to be fair, 2017 recruit Felton is close -- a very high four star, according to 247's composite rankings)

For comparison sake, five of Duke's last eight recruits are five-star (all except four-stars O'Connell and DeLaurier and foreign prospect White).

flyingdutchdevil
09-26-2016, 04:24 PM
Put it this way -- out of Roy's last eight recruits, he's landed exactly one five-star prospect -- freshman Tony Bradley (although, to be fair, 2017 recruit Felton is close -- a very high four star, according to 247's composite rankings)

For comparison sake, five of Duke's last eight recruits are five-star (all except four-stars O'Connell and DeLaurier and foreign prospect White).

Yeah, Felton is ranked #26, according to RSCI. I think ESPN gives 5 stars to the top ~25 or so players (that's what it is in the 2017 rankings right now). That would make Felton the "best" 4-star player.

I think it's no secret that Roy can't pull in the OADs anymore, but he's still getting decent talent. He had the 4th best ACC class in 2016 with his 3 recruits. Not great, but clearly not terrible either.

Wheat/"/"/"
09-27-2016, 02:37 AM
Put it this way -- out of Roy's last eight recruits, he's landed exactly one five-star prospect -- freshman Tony Bradley (although, to be fair, 2017 recruit Felton is close -- a very high four star, according to 247's composite rankings)

For comparison sake, five of Duke's last eight recruits are five-star (all except four-stars O'Connell and DeLaurier and foreign prospect White).

Let me get this straight...So, in a 'roundabout way, what you're saying is Roy must be a great coach to be able to take his team of "lessor" players, incapable of even being awarded 5*s from a website...to a National title game? 🤔🙂
The narrative used to be that Roy could only win because he had the best talent,...it's a real head scratcher now,...how he can keep winning without those 5* guys, ...isn't it?

Personally, I put more more stock in how a coach puts his team together...the fit of the skill sets...and then uses that talent.

"Gurus", web sites, etc.. simply try to rate a players individual skill potential, they are not very good at evaluating how a particular player will fit on a team to create a winning team, so I've never put much stock in rankings.

Bottom line: Roy evaluates talent each year to fit with existing players to build the best team possible that will execute the things he feels the team must do to win games. He's pretty good at it.

Yes, He wants the most talented players possible and offers the "5*" guys he likes. His job gets easier with more talent, no doubt.

For a multitude of reasons, he has not landed many of those guys lately. And I can understand why you guys like that. He's hard enough to try and beat Roy without the "best" guys.

This stuff goes in cycles. He will get his share in the long run. Enjoy this little cold spell while you can.

Personally, I really enjoy watching players develop and get better year after year. But don't take that to mean I'm OK with missing out on the so called 5* guys. I also want to watch the best players play.

Roy's teams continue to be competitive at the highest levels. At the end of the day, that's what I want to see each season the most.

bob blue devil
09-27-2016, 05:55 AM
Let me get this straight...So, in a 'roundabout way, what you're saying is Roy must be a great coach to be able to take his team of "lessor" players, incapable of even being awarded 5*s from a website...to a National title game? 🤔🙂
The narrative used to be that Roy could only win because he had the best talent,...it's a real head scratcher now,...how he can keep winning without those 5* guys, ...isn't it?


i hate to put a pin in your argument, but last year's unc team had 3-4 5 star recruits (hicks, jackson, pinson, berry depending on your rating service). the poster was referring to this year's sophomore and freshman classes and the obvious recent decline of unc recruiting resulting from the cheating scandal as well as roy's ability to turn freshman lottery picks into senior second rounders.

elvis14
09-27-2016, 08:13 AM
Roy's teams continue to be competitive at the highest levels. At the end of the day, that's what I want to see each season the most.


i hate to put a pin in your argument, but last year's unc team had 3-4 5 star recruits (hicks, jackson, pinson, berry depending on your rating service). the poster was referring to this year's sophomore and freshman classes and the obvious recent decline of unc recruiting resulting from the cheating scandal as well as roy's ability to turn freshman lottery picks into senior second rounders.

As the crop of 5* recruits from last years successful team cycle out and are replaced by weaker recruits, UNCheat will not continue to be competitive at the highest levels. Every 5* recruit on UNCheat is either a Jr. or Sr.. There's no guarantee that the Jr's will stay (they may finally be prepared to go pro) and they are being replaced with 3 and 4 star recruits.

Indoor66
09-27-2016, 08:15 AM
FIFY:

unCHEAT

Steven43
09-27-2016, 09:02 AM
I am quite pleased for Carolina to continue to beat schools like Rutgers, New Mexico, Old Dominion, Central Florida, and TCU for players.
Which UNC recruit was offered by those schools? You're right, it's not exactly a list of college basketball heavy hitters.

However, UNC will always be very dangerous as long as they continue to keep their 4 and 5-star recruits a year or two longer than just about everybody else and most of their 3-stars become pretty good team players who know their role and are solid contributors by the time they reach their junior and senior year.

Remember, a 5-star UNC recruit who stays three years is roughly equivalent to three Duke 5-star OADs. And in some ways said UNC recruit could be even more valuable because as a sophomore and junior he will have much more experience than a Duke OAD, who by definition is always a freshman.

I don't know what type of witchcraft or mind control Roy and the Heel program have been engaging in these past 10 years with their potential OADs, but it has been quite effective. With their system, every year or at least every couple of years, they are primed to be a top 10 team and a challenger for the national championship.

Wheat/"/"/"
09-27-2016, 09:45 AM
i hate to put a pin in your argument, but last year's unc team had 3-4 5 star recruits (hicks, jackson, pinson, berry depending on your rating service). the poster was referring to this year's sophomore and freshman classes and the obvious recent decline of unc recruiting resulting from the cheating scandal as well as roy's ability to turn freshman lottery picks into senior second rounders.

Before the quote I cited, Olympic Fan had said up thread "Roy on continues to recruit like a mid major". Then Jason chimed in...These are simply inaccurate, homer statements and needed to be called out.(At least I thought so).

I've watched Hicks, Jackson and Pinson for several years. They are talented players but each had maturity issues either with their skills or in their mental understanding of the level of play when they entered college.
They never should have been rated as "5*" or in any reality be considered a "one and done" lottery pick.

Rankings are totally inaccurate. Trust your own eyes when you see players play.

Roy hasn't held anybody back, it's another false narrative. He' s developing players to have long careers and they leave when they are ready or finish their eligibility.

Ichabod Drain
09-27-2016, 09:59 AM
Rankings are totally inaccurate. Trust your own eyes when you see players play.
.

Specific rankings of individual players can be inaccurate. Rankings as a whole are generally pretty accurate.

The vast majority of OAD players are rated as five star prospects coming out of high school. The vast majority of four star prospects are not OAD caliber players. If you track the success of players through college and beyond (it's been done before so the info can be found) you'll see players rated 1-10 are more successful than those ranked 11-25, and those players are more successful than those ranked 26-50 and so on.

Obviously there are guys like Steph Curry out there who defy the rankings system but those players are outliers.

A blanket statement of "Rankings are totally inaccurate" is to me... well, inaccurate.

DavidBenAkiva
09-27-2016, 11:09 AM
Let's give credit where credit is due. UNC has had a very successful program under Roy Williams. They played in the National Championship game in April, after all. And it wasn't that long ago that UNC was in other Final Fours and National Championship games. So something is working. And most of the players on his successful teams have been guys that have stuck around for 3-4 years. It seems to me that Roy has looked at the Duke, UK, Kansas, and Arizona programs and decided that he wants to zag when others have zigged.

A number of top programs, including Duke, are going towards the one and done players with varying degrees of success. But other programs, including UNC, Virginia, and Wisconsin, have demonstrated a lot of success with developing 3- and 4-star prospects. Part of it is about dealing with scarce resources. There are only so many top-tier players out there and the competition for them is fierce. A counter strategy to competing for the elite prospects is to target the middle tier, where a top tier program is more likely to be able to secure a commitment. Duke has certainly had a lot of success with guys that are near the top 10 but not quite one and done caliber. Think of all the McDonald's All-Americans that have stuck around Duke for multiple years. Duke targets both the top and the next tier and uses those 4-star guys to form a base while the 5-star guys put the team over the top. So UNC is going after that mid-100 crop as well as the players that are borderline top 25 players with a fairly high degree of success.

flyingdutchdevil
09-27-2016, 11:20 AM
Let's give credit where credit is due. UNC has had a very successful program under Roy Williams. They played in the National Championship game in April, after all. And it wasn't that long ago that UNC was in other Final Fours and National Championship games. So something is working. And most of the players on his successful teams have been guys that have stuck around for 3-4 years. It seems to me that Roy has looked at the Duke, UK, Kansas, and Arizona programs and decided that he wants to zag when others have zigged.

A number of top programs, including Duke, are going towards the one and done players with varying degrees of success. But other programs, including UNC, Virginia, and Wisconsin, have demonstrated a lot of success with developing 3- and 4-star prospects. Part of it is about dealing with scarce resources. There are only so many top-tier players out there and the competition for them is fierce. A counter strategy to competing for the elite prospects is to target the middle tier, where a top tier program is more likely to be able to secure a commitment. Duke has certainly had a lot of success with guys that are near the top 10 but not quite one and done caliber. Think of all the McDonald's All-Americans that have stuck around Duke for multiple years. Duke targets both the top and the next tier and uses those 4-star guys to form a base while the 5-star guys put the team over the top. So UNC is going after that mid-100 crop as well as the players that are borderline top 25 players with a fairly high degree of success.

Couldn't agree more. UNC has been very successful over the last year, and they should be congratulated despite no non-UNC fan having any faith in them.

But where I see this narrative falling apart is that UNC USED to be like Duke, UK, Kansas, and Arizona. Actually, you could use your post above for 2010 and replace "Duke" with "UNC" (except that we won the natty. Muahahahahahahahahahaha!).

Why did UNC go down the 4-year player road rather than the the OAD road like they used to? Is it that Roy had a change of heart and wanted players to get degrees (doubt it)? Is it that Roy wanted players to develop under his own tutelage (possibly)? Or is it that Roy was having difficulties competing with the UKs and Dukes of the world and found that getting commitments from high 4-star recruits was easier (likely)? And this is where the denial from UNC fans comes from.

Li_Duke
09-27-2016, 11:46 AM
There's no question that Roy's recruitment in 2015 and 2016 has suffered because of uncertainty regarding the cheating scandal. They lost out on a lot of top local recruits (Ingram, Giles, Smith). They've been lucky thus far in that their top recruits from 2012-2014 have stayed as long as they did.

However, I'm not yet ready to say that their status as a hot designation for top players is dead quite yet. As much as we think they should be punished for the cheating scandal, it doesn't look like it will happen. For 2017, they have Felton in hand (along with 2 much lower ranked guys), which is better than what we have in hand (Connell) at this stage. If they get another top recruit, say someone like Knox picks them over Duke and UK -- then proceeds to be a top draft pick the next year -- that will change their presumed status recruitment-wise very quickly. I'm going to cross my fingers and hope for the best (or the worst from UNC's perspective), but I think it is much too early to tell regarding 2017 and beyond.

Kedsy
09-27-2016, 11:53 AM
Let me get this straight...So, in a 'roundabout way, what you're saying is Roy must be a great coach to be able to take his team of "lessor" players, incapable of even being awarded 5*s from a website...to a National title game?

Few people around here will admit it, but I think you're right about this. Lately, Williams has done more with guys with recruiting rankings in the 40s, 50s, etc. than K has. Of course, he's had a lot more guys with those rankings than K has, too. But his success in developing guys like Johnson (RSCI #40), Meeks (#56), Tokoto (#57), and Britt (#93) over the past few seasons has been impressive.

tbyers11
09-27-2016, 11:56 AM
Specific rankings of individual players can be inaccurate. Rankings as a whole are generally pretty accurate.

The vast majority of OAD players are rated as five star prospects coming out of high school. The vast majority of four star prospects are not OAD caliber players. If you track the success of players through college and beyond (it's been done before so the info can be found) you'll see players rated 1-10 are more successful than those ranked 11-25, and those players are more successful than those ranked 26-50 and so on.

Obviously there are guys like Steph Curry out there who defy the rankings system but those players are outliers.

A blanket statement of "Rankings are totally inaccurate" is to me... well, inaccurate.

This is a pretty accurate summation. I'll go into more detail.

I see three rough tiers of recruits and UNC recruiting stacks up with the tiers over the last 4-5 years

1-15 (I'll go down to 15 to account for variance and inexactness of rankings): In the last 6-7 years since the Calipari method began with the Wall/Cousins class, these are typically your one-and-done elite talents. Not all of them turn out to be superstars but as Ichabod mentioned a high percentage do.The vast majority (~2/3) are one-and-done. If you account for variance in the rankings a bit: Isaiah Hicks (2013 #14 RSCI), Justin Jackson (2014 #9) and Theo Pinson (2014 #15) all fall at the tail end of this group. Now, Wheat may be correct that none of these 3 were truly one-and-dones and that they are staying at UNC for their benefit and not Roy/UNC's benefit. He may be correct. However, the perception is what is important here. When all the other big-time programs are sending these kids to the NBA after 1 (or at most 2) years to start their earning clocks and UNC is keeping them for 3-4 years only to find them being, at best, low first-round picks, big-time recruits wonder what is going on.

15-40 (most recruiting services list about the top 25ish recruits as 5 star, I'll go to 40 account for variance): These are the low 5 star/high 4 star recruits that are not likely to be OAD. Roy has done a dadgum good job with these kids over the last few years. Marcus Paige (2012 #28) and Brice Johnson (2012 #40) stayed 4 years and were the top players/leaders on last year's team. Joel Berry (2014, #25) seems like a 4 year kid that is going to be a very good player. Getting these kids has been vital to UNC staying a top team

40-infinity and beyond: low 4 star to 3 star kids: a few (maybe 3-4 per class) of these kids blow up and go pro after 1-2 years. The rest all stay 4 years and at big-time schools about half become really solid players and half ride the pine or transfer to lesser schools: Since the 2012 recruiting class UNC has had some strong contributors (JP Tokoto 2012 #57, Kennedy Meeks 2013 #56), moderate contributors (Nate Britt 2013 #93) and mostly non-contributors (Joel James 2012, #58). It's too early to tell for Kenny Williams (2015 #90) and Luke Maye (2015 not top 100), but I'm betting moderate at best.

How UNC has maintained a top 15 team the last few years has been from their "best" recruits staying way past their typical shelf-life and their 2nd level recruits Paige and Johnson truly blossoming/outperforming typical expectations. That just isn't a sustainable model today. The chips may fall in place like last year again this year but beyond that it doesn't seem likely. You generally need top talent to be Final Four caliber. Going forward things appear bleak.

For whatever reason (impending sanctions, perception of holding players back, Roy truly not wanting to recruit them (?)) this year's class has no "top" recruits. You can't over-extend the return on top 15 recruits when you don't get any. Tony Bradley (2016 #28) and Seventh Woods (2016 #40) may turn out to be the second coming of Brice Johnson and Marcus Paige but the reality is that is not likely. Brandon Robinson is likely JP Tokoto at best or Joel James at worst. 2017 so far has one 2nd level recruit (Jalek Felton 247sports #26) and 2 low 3 star recruits (not top 150) in Huffman and Platek. Combined with the 2015 class of Williams and Maye there just isn't much top talent there and the second level talent (that typically needs a few years to mature) will be Soph/Frosh. Next year because I can't see Jackson coming back again, UNC currently has: Berry, Woods, Pinson, Robinson, and Bradley as a starting lineup with Felton, Williams, Maye as depth. To me, that is at best a top 25 team. Certain players could improve wildly beyond expectations. A couple of stud frosh could still commit (but the track record isn't good recently).

Troublemaker
09-27-2016, 12:08 PM
Before the quote I cited, Olympic Fan had said up thread "Roy on continues to recruit like a mid major". Then Jason chimed in...These are simply inaccurate, homer statements and needed to be called out.(At least I thought so).

I've watched Hicks, Jackson and Pinson for several years. They are talented players but each had maturity issues either with their skills or in their mental understanding of the level of play when they entered college.
They never should have been rated as "5*" or in any reality be considered a "one and done" lottery pick.

Rankings are totally inaccurate. Trust your own eyes when you see players play.

Roy hasn't held anybody back, it's another false narrative. He' s developing players to have long careers and they leave when they are ready or finish their eligibility.

Still, you shouldn't equate the level of recruits on the national runner-ups with the level of recruits you've been bringing in recently.

Using 247's composite rankings, the core of UNC's national runner-ups included:

Seniors - #31-ranked Paige, #45 Johnson, #60 James
Juniors - #16 Hicks, #58 Meeks
Sophs - #9 Jackson, #15 Pinson, #30 Berry

And Hicks, Jackson, and Pinson were among the highest-rated recruits still playing college basketball in their respective classes.


Now, compare that with what you've been bringing in recently:
Rising Sophs: #97 Williams, #156 Maye
Frosh: #26 Bradley, #48 Woods, #60 Robinson
HS Srs: #26 Felton, #199 Huffman, #220 Platek

The current frosh need to all be 3-4 year impact players for UNC to have a chance to sustain as a program. Especially since Jalek Felton has the physical profile to be 1-and-done (http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jalek-Felton-7291/). DraftExpress loves him.

Wheat/"/"/"
09-27-2016, 12:38 PM
Still, you shouldn't equate the level of recruits on the national runner-ups with the level of recruits you've been bringing in recently.

Using 247's composite rankings, the core of UNC's national runner-ups included:

Seniors - #31-ranked Paige, #45 Johnson, #60 James
Juniors - #16 Hicks, #58 Meeks
Sophs - #9 Jackson, #15 Pinson, #30 Berry

And Hicks, Jackson, and Pinson were among the highest-rated recruits still playing college basketball in their respective classes.


Now, compare that with what you've been bringing in recently:
Rising Sophs: #97 Williams, #156 Maye
Frosh: #26 Bradley, #48 Woods, #60 Robinson
HS Srs: #26 Felton, #199 Huffman, #220 Platek

The incoming frosh need to all be 3-4 year impact players for UNC to have a chance to sustain as a program. Especially since Jalek Felton has the physical profile to be 1-and-done (http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jalek-Felton-7291/). DraftExpress loves him.

First, keep in mind Roy is not done recruiting this year. He's still in the hunt for PJ Washington, Kevin Knox, and Jarred Vanderbilt ...all somebody's 5* guys.

Also, recently with the steady development of players like McAdoo, Johnson, Hicks, Meeks, Jackson the past few seasons, it helped the decisions of some of the 5* guys to opt for situations that had a clearer picture of playing time and usage. (Along with the uncertainty of the academic issues).

UNC just offered another 3* in this class, Sterling Manley. He's 6'9 and 235lbs and he's been injured last season and off the radar so who knows if his "ranking" is close to accurate.
All I hear is he's recovered and Roy supposedly loves his game and thinks he can contribute right away if he can sign him.

We don't get to see all these kids play to make informed decisions. We have to trust our coaches decisions. Website rankings are for entertainment past the 3-4 guys each year that have a real shot at being OAD.

Wheat/"/"/"
09-27-2016, 12:49 PM
Specific rankings of individual players can be inaccurate. Rankings as a whole are generally pretty accurate.

The vast majority of OAD players are rated as five star prospects coming out of high school. The vast majority of four star prospects are not OAD caliber players. If you track the success of players through college and beyond (it's been done before so the info can be found) you'll see players rated 1-10 are more successful than those ranked 11-25, and those players are more successful than those ranked 26-50 and so on.

Obviously there are guys like Steph Curry out there who defy the rankings system but those players are outliers.

A blanket statement of "Rankings are totally inaccurate" is to me... well, inaccurate.

My point is they are inaccurate in the sense that rankings can't determine how a player will fit to form a winning team.

Just putting a team of top ranked players together is not the guarantee many think to win titles.

Ichabod Drain
09-27-2016, 01:11 PM
My point is they are inaccurate in the sense that rankings can't determine how a player will fit to form a winning team.

Just putting a team of top ranked players together is not the guarantee many think to win titles.

I don't think many people (at least most people here) think that guaranteed titles. But it's a damn good start.

Also your statement was "Rankings are totally inaccurate." It's hard to get what you say is your point from that.

NSDukeFan
09-27-2016, 01:13 PM
Still, you shouldn't equate the level of recruits on the national runner-ups with the level of recruits you've been bringing in recently.

Using 247's composite rankings, the core of UNC's national runner-ups included:

Seniors - #31-ranked Paige, #45 Johnson, #60 James
Juniors - #16 Hicks, #58 Meeks
Sophs - #9 Jackson, #15 Pinson, #30 Berry

And Hicks, Jackson, and Pinson were among the highest-rated recruits still playing college basketball in their respective classes.


Now, compare that with what you've been bringing in recently:
Rising Sophs: #97 Williams, #156 Maye
Frosh: #26 Bradley, #48 Woods, #60 Robinson
HS Srs: #26 Felton, #199 Huffman, #220 Platek

The current frosh need to all be 3-4 year impact players for UNC to have a chance to sustain as a program. Especially since Jalek Felton has the physical profile to be 1-and-done (http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jalek-Felton-7291/). DraftExpress loves him.
I remember at the time thinking that 2014 recruiting class at UNC could be dangerous. I was obviously ecstatic that Okafor, Jones, Winslow and Allen came to Duke, but I remember thinking that Jackson, Pinson and Berry could end up being a very nice class that contributes a lot to the program (obviously athletically, since academics aren't a concern). I expect they will end up with more points, assists and rebounds from that class than Duke's (but hopefully 2 fewer championships.) A coach would have a hard time projecting when recruiting, but if you could each year get three players ranked in the 15-25 range that stayed for 3-4 years each, you could build a great program. I don't believe Roy did that intentionally that year, but I think that class will keep them competitive for another couple years.

DavidBenAkiva
09-27-2016, 01:54 PM
How UNC has maintained a top 15 team the last few years has been from their "best" recruits staying way past their typical shelf-life and their 2nd level recruits Paige and Johnson truly blossoming/outperforming typical expectations. That just isn't a sustainable model today. The chips may fall in place like last year again this year but beyond that it doesn't seem likely. You generally need top talent to be Final Four caliber. Going forward things appear bleak.

I am involved in education research and in that world, there's a saying that we pay way too much attention to Harvard. That is, Harvard and the Ivy League schools get a lot of attention but the vast majority (like 99%) of schools and students are not like that. Most schools and students go to the big state schools and even more than those, the local commuter campuses and community colleges. The Ivy League represents just a drop in the bucket of higher education but is a huge focus of higher education policy.

Your statement is basically the same thing. We focus on the one and dones, but the majority of successful programs don't have those players. Just look at this list of Final Four teams from the past 5 years:


2016: Villanova, UNC, Oklahoma, and Syracuse
2015: Duke, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Kentucky
2014: Connecticut, Kentucky, Florida, and Wisconsin
2013: Louisville, Michigan, Syracuse, and Wichita State
2012: Kentucky, Kansas, Ohio State, and Louisville


From that list, Syracuse from 2016, Duke and Kentucky from 2015, and Kentucky from 2014 and 2012 prominently featured freshmen that went on to the NBA Draft. Of the 15 schools to reach the Final Four during the height of the One and Done Era, 3 of them (20%) were built on top 15 talent. Seems like 80% of the teams, including 3 of the last 5 champions, would count as a "sustainable model."

Wheat/"/"/"
09-27-2016, 01:57 PM
Also your statement was "Rankings are totally inaccurate." It's hard to get what you say is your point from that.

Fair enough, I could have made my point clearer at the start.

devilnfla
09-27-2016, 01:59 PM
Also, recently with the steady development of players like McAdoo,


I'm sorry, what?

budwom
09-27-2016, 02:13 PM
I'm sorry, what?

I share your hearing problem;)...McAdoo is probably the greatest anti-Roy recruiting tool one could mention. Opposing coaches have feasted on this.

Troublemaker
09-27-2016, 02:46 PM
I remember at the time thinking that 2014 recruiting class at UNC could be dangerous. I was obviously ecstatic that Okafor, Jones, Winslow and Allen came to Duke, but I remember thinking that Jackson, Pinson and Berry could end up being a very nice class that contributes a lot to the program (obviously athletically, since academics aren't a concern). I expect they will end up with more points, assists and rebounds from that class than Duke's (but hopefully 2 fewer championships.) A coach would have a hard time projecting when recruiting, but if you could each year get three players ranked in the 15-25 range that stayed for 3-4 years each, you could build a great program. I don't believe Roy did that intentionally that year, but I think that class will keep them competitive for another couple years.

That's true. The current juniors could stave off UNC having to pay the piper for a couple of years. Certainly this season they look like they're poised to be a top-15 team again.

I have been imagining a scenario, though, where Joel Berry blows up this season and leaves, joined by Jackson. I think UNC would struggle to make the tournament in 2017-18 if that occurred.

Wheat/"/"/"
09-27-2016, 02:46 PM
I share your hearing problem;)...McAdoo is probably the greatest anti-Roy recruiting tool one could mention. Opposing coaches have feasted on this.

I thought McAdoo was an extremely talented, athletic player, but not as good as people thought from the standpoint of underestimating his need to improve his feel and understanding of the flow and pace of a game.
Good players can have that and defeat talent.

And I thought he did get better each season and should have stayed through his Sr. year to become an even better player for the NBA.

But I get it that guys want to get there ASAP, ready or not.

budwom
09-27-2016, 03:14 PM
I thought McAdoo was an extremely talented, athletic player, but not as good as people thought from the standpoint of underestimating his need to improve his feel and understanding of the flow and pace of a game.
Good players can have that and defeat talent.

And I thought he did get better each season and should have stayed through his Sr. year to become an even better player for the NBA.

But I get it that guys want to get there ASAP, ready or not.

I know our man Carlos (among others) has compiled data on this stuff...but McAdoo was RSCI rated as the number six recruit in the country, stayed three full years, then went undrafted.
This is one of the best examples of poor player development one can find. And that's the word in recruiting circles, hence Roy's current mediocre recruiting.

bob blue devil
09-27-2016, 03:16 PM
I thought McAdoo was an extremely talented, athletic player, but not as good as people thought from the standpoint of underestimating his need to improve his feel and understanding of the flow and pace of a game.
Good players can have that and defeat talent.

And I thought he did get better each season and should have stayed through his Sr. year to become an even better player for the NBA.

But I get it that guys want to get there ASAP, ready or not.

on one side folks will say uncheat has hindered kids' progress or worse; on the uncheat side they will say the recruits were overrated. you can't completely prove one over the over, so feel free to keep claiming overrated recruits, but its a mighty big coincidence unc kept getting those overrated elite recruits... thankfully, you don't have that problem to worry about anymore.

flyingdutchdevil
09-27-2016, 03:18 PM
I know our man Carlos (among others) has compiled data on this stuff...but McAdoo was RSCI rated as the number six recruit in the country, stayed three full years, then went undrafted.
This is one of the best examples of poor player development one can find. And that's the word in recruiting circles, hence Roy's current mediocre recruiting.

Budworm - are you saying that 1 player is the cause for UNC's recent recruiting woes?

This is a serious question; I'm really curious.

English
09-27-2016, 04:15 PM
Budworm - are you saying that 1 player is the cause for UNC's recent recruiting woes?

This is a serious question; I'm really curious.

I'm not BudWom, but my read is that BudWom's suggesting that poor player development (i.e., not getting top recruits quickly to the League) is the cause for the recent recruiting woes, and JMM is one of the best examples of said poor player development. He's certainly not the only one.

Wheat/"/"/"
09-27-2016, 04:15 PM
on one side folks will say uncheat has hindered kids' progress or worse; on the uncheat side they will say the recruits were overrated. you can't completely prove one over the over, so feel free to keep claiming overrated recruits, but its a mighty big coincidence unc kept getting those overrated elite recruits... thankfully, you don't have that problem to worry about anymore.

I'd wager that if McAdoo had come out after his freshman year he'd be out of the league by now. (Just opinion, I know).

At least by staying three he improved his fundamentals enough to stick on a NBA roster and make some serious money in the league.

His high ranking was based on his athleticism, not his understanding of how to play.

Wheat/"/"/"
09-27-2016, 04:19 PM
I'm not BudWom, but my read is that BudWom's suggesting that poor player development (i.e., not getting top recruits quickly to the League) is the cause for the recent recruiting woes, and JMM is one of the best examples of said poor player development. He's certainly not the only one.

There is no way an unbiased person can evaluate players on UNC's recent rosters and not see the positive player development from previous seasons.

Olympic Fan
09-27-2016, 04:30 PM
Wheat, I've posted this before, but I'll repost it now -- a study of the top 10 rsci prospect between 2006 (the first year kids could not go straight to the pros and 2014:

2006
1. Greg Oden, Ohio State …. One year
2. Kevin Durant, Texas … One year
3. Brandon Wright, UNC … One year
4. Spencer Hawes, Washington … One year
5. Ty Lawson, UNC … Three years
6. Thaddeus Young, Georgia Tech … One year
7. Chase Buddinger, Arizona … Three years
8. Wayne Ellington, UNC … Three years
9. Brook Lopez, Stanford … Two years
10. Gerald Henderson, Duke … Three years

2007
1. O.J. Mayo, Southern Cal … One year
2. Kevin Love, UCLA … One year
3. Eric Gordon, Indiana … One year
4. Michael Beasley, Kansas State … One year
5. Derrick Rose, Memphis … One year
6. Kyle Singler, Duke … Four years
7. Jerryd Bayless, Arizona … One year
8. Donte Greene, Syracuse …One year
9. J.J. Hickson, N.C. State … One year
10. Patrick Patterson, Kentucky … Three years

2008
1. Brandon Jennings (Europe) … One year
2. Jrue Holiday, UCLA … One year
3. Tyreke Evans, Memphis … One year
4. Samardo Samuels, Louisville … Two years
5. Demar Derozan, Southern Cal … One year
6. Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake Forest … Two years
7. Greg Monroe, Georgetown … Two years
8. B.J. Mullens, Ohio State … One year
9. Ed Davis, UNC … Two years
10. Delvon Roe, Michigan State … Three years (injury)

2009
1. Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech … One year
2. John Wall, Kentucky … One year
3. DeMarcus Cousins, Kentucky … One year
4. Avery Bradley, Texas … One year
5. John Henson, North Carolina … Three years
6. Xavier Henry, Kansas … One year
7. Renardo Sidney. Miss State … Three years (one suspended)
8. Lance Stephenson, Cincinnati … One year
9. Kenny Boynton, Florida … Four years
10. Keith Gallon, Oklahoma … One year

2010
1. Harrison Barnes, UNC … Two years
2. Jared Sullinger, Ohio State … Two years
3. Kyrie Irving, Duke … One year
4. Brandon Knight, Kentucky … One year
5. Tobias Harris, Tennessee … One year
6. Josh Shelby, Kansas … One year
7. Enes Kanter, Kentucky … One year (ineligible)
8. Perry Jones, Baylor … One year
9. Tristan Thompson, Texas … Two years
10. Will Barton, Memphis … Two years

2011
1. Anthony Davis, Kentucky … One year
2. Austin Rivers, Duke … One year
3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky … One year
4. Bradley Beal, Florida … One year
5. Quincy Miller, Baylor … One year
6. James Michael McAdoo, UNC … Three years
7. Marquis Teague, Kentucky … One year
8. LeBryan Nash, Oklahoma State … Four years
9. Adonis Thomas, Memphis … Two years
10. Cody Zeller, Indiana … Two years

2012
1. Shabazz Mohammad, UCLA … One year
2. Nerlens Noel, Kentucky … One year
3. Kyle Anderson, UCLA … Two years
4. Isaiah Austin, Baylor … Two years
5. Steven Adams, Pittsburgh … One year
6. Anthony Bennett, UNLV … One year
7. Kaleb Tarczewski, Arizona … Four Years
8. Alex Poythress, Kentucky … Three/Four years
9. Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State … Two years
10. Archie Goodwin, Kentucky … One year

2013
1. Anthony Wiggins, Kansas … One year
2. Julius Randle, Kentucky … One year
3. Jabari Parker, Duke … One year
4. Aaron Gordon, Arizona … One year
5. Andrew Harrison, Kentucky … Two years
6. Aaron Harrison, Kentucky … Two years
7. Chris Walker, Florida …Three Years (at least)
8. Noah Vonleh, Indiana … One year
9. Dakari Johnson, Kentucky … Two years
10. James Young, Kentucky … One year

2014
1. Jahlil Okafor, Duke … One year
2. Emmanuel Mudiay (China) … One year
3. Stanley Johnson, Arizona … One year
4. Cliff Alexander, Kansas …One year
5. Karl Towns, Kentucky … One year
6. Myles Turner, Texas … One year
7. Tyus Jones, Duke … One Year
8. Kelly Oubre, Kansas … One year
9. Justin Jackson, UNC … Two years (at least)
10. Rashad Vaughn, UNLV … One year

OBSERVATIONS:
-- While 64.4 percent of the top 10 prospects are one-and-dones, that number skyrockets when we look at the top five prospects each year – 37 of 45 have gone to the NBA after one college season – 82.2 percent.
The eight top 5 prospects (with their rank) who did not turn out to be one-and-dones:
(5) Ty Lawson, UNC – Three years
(4) Samardo Samuels, Louisville – Two years
(5) John Henson, UNC – Three years
(1) Harrison Barnes, UNC – Two years
(2) Jared Sullinger, Ohio State – Two years
(3) Kyle Anderson, UCLA – Two years
(4) Isaiah Austin, Baylor – Two years*
(5) Andrew Harrison, Kentucky – Two years

Austin is a special case. He declared after one year, but due to a shoulder that required surgery in the spring of his freshman season, he pulled his name out of the draft. After his sophomore year, Austin was diagnosed with Marfan Syndrome and never played in the NBA.
Of course, the big thing that jumps out at you while looking at this list is that three of the eight top 5 prospects who were not one-and-done played for Roy Williams at North Carolina. More than that, the only two top 5 prospects who stayed three years were Carolina guys – Ty Lawson and John Henson.
-- There are 16 programs that have recruited more than one top 10 prospect since 2006. Eight have recruited five or more. Here’s the list (along with each school’s success at turning potential one-and-dones into real one-and-dones):
(17) Kentucky – 12 of 17 top 10 (70.5 percent); 8 of 9 top 5 (88.9 percent)
(8) UNC – 1 of 8 top 10 (12.5 percent); 1 of 4 top 5 (25 percent)
(7) Duke – 5 of 7 top 10 (71.4 percent); 4 of 4 top 5 (100 percent)
(5) Kansas – 5 of 5 top 10 (100 percent); 2 of 2 top 5 (100 percent)
(5) Arizona – 3 of 5 top 10 (60 percent); 2 of 2 top 5 (100 percent)
(4) UCLA – 3 of 4 top 10 (75 percent); 3 of 4 top 5 (75 percent)
(4) Texas – 3 of 4 top 10 (75 percent); 2 of 2 top 5 (100 percent)
(4) Memphis –2 of 4 top 10 (50 percent); 2 of 2 top 5 (100 percent)
(3) Ohio State – 2 of 3 top 10 (66.7 percent); 1 of 2 top 5 (50 percent)
(3) Florida – 1 of 3 top 10 (33.3 percent); 1 of 1 top 5 (100 percent)
(3) Baylor – 2 of 3 top 10 (66.7 percent); 1 of 2 top 5 (50 percent)
(3) Indiana – 2 of 3 top 10 (66.7 percent); 1 of 1 top 5 (100 percent)
(2) Georgia Tech – 2 of 2 top 10 (100 percent); 1 of 1 top 5 (100 percent)
(2) Southern Cal – 2 of 2 top 10 (100 percent); 2 of 2 top 5 (100 percent)
(2) UNLV – 2 of 2 top 10 (100 percent); no top 5
(2) Oklahoma State – 0 for 2 top 10 (0 percent); no top 5

Again, North Carolina’s failure to get top 5 and top 10 prospects into the NBA after one year is startling. The Tar Heels lone one-and-done in this era was Brandon Wright after the 2006 season. Since then, Roy has managed to hold on to his top prospects longer than any coach in college basketball.

Wheat, maybe you can say that one or two were overrated ... but when you look at the whole picture, it' obvious why top 10 prospects are treating UNC like the plague.

Adding 2015 doesn't change much -- UNC did not have a top 10 (or top 50) prospect in the class. Duke has one -- No. 4 Brandon Ingram, who was OAD.

budwom
09-27-2016, 04:42 PM
I'm not BudWom, but my read is that BudWom's suggesting that poor player development (i.e., not getting top recruits quickly to the League) is the cause for the recent recruiting woes, and JMM is one of the best examples of said poor player development. He's certainly not the only one.

That's absolutely correct, McAdoo is just one shining example. One can argue until the cows come home whether this is justified or not ( I note Olympic's
data is consistent with what others have compiled) but the word in hoop recruiting circles (e.g. summer events, AAU and the like) is that if you're looking
for the fastest route to The League (and one can also argue about the merits of that) unc isn't the place to go. In fact Roy is having mega problems even
getting top ten kids to visit. Seems like Knox this year will be an exception.

I think it was SI or some other prominent publication which had a piece on this earlier in the year, NBA scouts noting that unc player development is not good.

bob blue devil
09-27-2016, 04:49 PM
was just looking at unc's roster outlook a bit and am a bit surprised -

2017 class:
- commitments from: #26 felton, >100 huffman, >100 platek
- open slots: 2 (assuming no early departures, which isn't a safe assumption)
- many outstanding offers including...
- garrison brooks (>100), who has 54% of experts predicting unc - the unc predictions are the most recent 7, all this month
- sterling manley (>100), who has 1 of 4 experts predicting unc, but the other 3 predate unc's recent offer by a bit
- so roy i guess could be finishing off this class with brooks and harrison

2018 class:
- commitments from: #57 black, #68 white (black & white - cute)
- open slots: 1 (assuming they fill remaining 2 in 2017 and no early departures, which, who knows)
- many outstanding offers including...
- jarius hamilton (#40), who has all 7 of experts predicting unc
- if this is all right, it seems like roy is happy finishing off this class with hamilton

anyway, if these rankings hold (and of course they won't, but they're our best current predictor), that would leave unc with the following team in terms of rankings count in 2 years:
1-25: 1 (#19)
25-50: 3
50-75: 3
75-100: 1
100+: 5

perhaps roy's scouting is well ahead of the recruiting services (probably some truth to that), but building a team from underrated guys is not his historic profile, nor is this the historic ranking profile of a team destined for big things. i'm surprised it doesn't look like he's holding spots for elite recruits - even if it means keeping a scholarship or 2 unused. i guess i could easily be missing something here.

* offers and slot info from Verbal Commits - I guess could be wrong
* ratings from RSCI consensus for 2017, which goes up to 100; ratings from scout for 2018 (RSCI not yet available)

hallcity
09-27-2016, 04:50 PM
That's absolutely correct, McAdoo is just one shining example. One can argue until the cows come home whether this is justified or not ( I note Olympic's
data is consistent with what others have compiled) but the word in hoop recruiting circles (e.g. summer events, AAU and the like) is that if you're looking
for the fastest route to The League (and one can also argue about the merits of that) unc isn't the place to go. In fact Roy is having mega problems even
getting top ten kids to visit. Seems like Knox this year will be an exception.

I think it was SI or some other prominent publication which had a piece on this earlier in the year, NBA scouts noting that unc player development is not good.

I hope Ol' Roy keeps coaching until he's at least 80.

budwom
09-27-2016, 05:00 PM
If you Google North Carolina Basketball poor player development, you'll find an Andrew Carter article from the N&O dated 10/28/15 in which
(besides mentioning that unc looked to have a strong team last year) Ol' Roy hisself acknowledges that the perception is out there that he
limits his highly ranked players....he notes that he has tried to recruits the same OADs that K and Calipari are getting (exploding the IC myth
that Roy isn't interested in these guys).

Kedsy
09-27-2016, 05:19 PM
I think Wheat and everyone else are talking past each other. If you're really talking about player "development," then OAD players can hardly count. Few players come in to school as non-OADs and leave as OADs (though I suppose you could argue Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow did, but based on their recruiting rankings (#7 and #13) they should have been counted as at least possible OADs). Sure, players develop over a year, but most OADs would have been OAD at almost any school. What seems to have happened with top 15 prospects at UNC is not a lack of development as much as it is a failure for highly ranked players to become one-and-done.

When it comes to actual player development, which realistically has to involve multiple years, Roy has done a pretty good job with guys like Paige, Johnson, Tokoto, Meeks, et al. One could argue he's better at "developing" this sort of player than Coach K; perhaps Roy is better off with mid-level prospects he can have for multiple years. That said, as Olympic Fan has pointed out, his recruiting from 2015 on has been kind of lacking even in mid-level prospects. If he doesn't grab a few top 20 recruits in the near term, it would seem unlikely that he can put the pieces together to form a top-tier ACC team or national contender in the next few years.

richardjackson199
09-27-2016, 05:29 PM
...

Roy hasn't held anybody back, it's another false narrative. He' s developing players to have long careers and they leave when they are ready or finish their eligibility.

Wheat, I also disagree. As noted, Roy's recruiting is way down. This is not just the scandal. Roy's ability to hold back players from leaving early for the NBA draft is incredible. I think there is a pattern from Roy’s tenure at UNC, where he has had 2 one and done players. I see that Oly and others have better analysis above. But this is just looking at UNC players under Roy’s tenure there:

--Justin Jackson was the #9 recruit in his class, a 5-star, and was co-MVP of the McDonald's All-American game with Okafor. Jackson shot 11-12 in that game and led scoring with 23. At the 2016 NBA Draft combine he shot 5-14 in 2 scrimmages, confirmed he was not likely to be taken in the first or second round, and returned to UNC for his junior year.

--Theo Pinson was the #15 recruit in his class, a 5-star. He did not consider leaving early for the NBA and was not projected to be a first or 2nd round pick in 2016. He returns for his junior year.

--Isaiah Hicks was the # 14 recruit in his class, a 5-star. After learning that he was not projected to be a first or 2nd round pick in 2016, he opted to return for his senior year at UNC without testing the NBA draft waters.

--Joel Berry was the #25 recruit in his class, a 4-star. Berry and his family considered testing the waters, but decided not to after seeing that he was not projected to be a first or 2nd round pick in 2016. He opted to return for his junior year at UNC.

-- Kennedy Meeks was a 4 star recruit (#56) out of high school. Although he tried to test the NBA waters, he was not invited to the draft combine and decided to return to UNC for his senior year

--Roy got 4 years out of Brice Johnson (#40, 4 Star), taking all 4 years to showcase his elite athleticism (38 inch vertical, 8'10.5" standing reach, 7'0.5" Wingspan) and develop his touch to a level consistent enough to be drafted #25 in the first round. Johnson was a 4 star recruit out of high school, but by his sophomore year at UNC he was showing up on NBA Mock draft boards.

--Roy got 4 years out of Marcus Paige (#28, 4 Star), whose NBA draft stock fell dramatically from his sophomore to his senior season, after which he was taken #55 in the 2nd round. He was a 4 star guy out of high school who exploded to first team All-ACC his sophomore year.

--Roy's last player to leave "early" for the draft was JP Tokoto (#57, 4 star). JP left after 3 years at UNC and was selected 58th in the 2nd round in 2015. His non-guaranteed contract was waived by the 76ers after 5 preseason games and he played in the D-League.

--Then there was James Michael McAdoo in 2014. McAdoo was the #6 ranked player in his high school class and was projected as an NBA lottery pick after 1 year at UNC. He stayed 3 years at UNC and was undrafted in 2014. He was waived by the Warriors Oct. 2014 and played in the D-League until Jan. 2015. From Jan to Feb 2015 he bounced back and forth from the Warriors on 10 day contracts to the D-League. But by Feb. 2015 he made the Warriors and remains there.

--PJ Hairston (RSCI #13, 5-Star) is a special case. Apologies for all the detail, but it bears repeating to remember what was going on in Roy's program after the 20 years of fake classes for athletes ended. After his sophomore year at UNC in 2013, PJ was projected to be drafted in the first round, anywhere from spots 15-25. But he was having so much fun at UNC he also decided to come back for his junior year. Hairston was cited for speeding in May and in June for possession of weed and driving without a license. Both times he was in nice cars rented by convicted felon Fats Thomas. The May speeding incident was in an Orange Camaro SS. PJ screwed up again in late July when he was cited for reckless driving for going 93 in a 65 in his girlfriend's car. At that point, Roy suspended him from that July through Sept. 26, during the offseason. On Sept. 26, Roy announced that P.J. had earned the opportunity to practice again with the team. Roy said, "In 26 years as a head coach, I've never made the demands on a young man that I have made of P.J. … P.J. has done, to this point, everything he's been asked to do, and done it with an outstanding attitude and a sense of remorse for his actions which put him in this position. He knows he made a series of mistakes and understands very clearly that he embarrassed his family, our program and the University." The perception throughout that summer was that Hairston would be reinstated at some point during the year, especially after Cunningham told a group of university faculty members during a question-and-answer session Aug. 15 that Hairston would play this season "but not all the games." But somebody blabbed and threw a wrench in that plan. In Sept., it was reported to the NCAA by the mother of PJ's friend Miykael Faulcon, that PJ was driving the Camaro several times in spring 2013. Rental car receipts to Fats associates just for the Camaro were in excess of $5700. Faulcon's Mom said she was talking because she was annoyed that her son was suspended 9 games by the NCAA for these impermissable benefits. PJ by contrast had been asked to do some extra jumping jacks by Roy, but had done them with an outstanding attitude. A little snooping showed there were other links between Thomas' rental cars and UNC. Between February and May, four Hertz rental vehicles tied to Thomas – a GMC Yukon, a 2013 Chevrolet Tahoe, a 2013 Mercedes Benz 350 and the Camaro SS – received a total of 25 citations on the University of North Carolina campus. The Camaro SS received 13 citations in April and May. So UNC sat PJ out while this was unfolding. By Dec 2013 of that season, the NCAA cleared senior guard Leslie McDonald to play following a nine-game suspension for accepting benefits from "numerous individuals" during the spring and summer of 2013. McDonald must repay $1,833.36 to a charity of his choice for accepting benefits that included use of luxury cars, the payment of parking tickets, a cell phone and lodging. UNC ultimately did not seek reinstatement for PJ. That Dec. 2013 Bubba announced, "Unfortunately P.J. made a number of mistakes that placed his eligibility at risk and the university's joint review with the NCAA made it clear that seeking reinstatement for P.J. would not be possible." Roy reportedly was not happy with this decision. Roy - "I am extremely disappointed for P.J., his family and our team as he will no longer be playing basketball at North Carolina. P.J. made mistakes and I was very disappointed by his actions and now he is suffering the very difficult consequences. He is not a bad kid; he just made some mistakes. Since summer, P.J. has been outstanding with our basketball program and with his schoolwork. He went through an extremely intense conditioning program with flying colors. He has been called a "perfect teammate" by one of our other players. He has dominated our practices and at times has been as good as any perimeter player I have ever coached, giving great effort to help our team. He cares deeply about Carolina and the basketball program."
Per the official UNC basketball Twitter account, the Hairston situation was the biggest disappointment of Williams' coaching career: Roy - "From a personal standpoint this is the lowest I've come from in 26 years of coaching." PJ played in the D League spring 2014 and was taken #26 in the first round of the 2014 draft.

--Reggie Bullock (RSCI #14, 5-Star) left UNC in 2013 after 3 years in college. Roy famously had several conversations with Reggie to try to talk him out of the decision. Roy then publicly criticized Reggie for going against his advice and deciding to enter the draft. He stated he thought Reggie had the worst chance of any of his 12 former players to leave early of being drafted in the first round. “I’m more worried about Reggie than I have been any of those other guys, but gosh, what a great, great kid... But he is the one that I said, ‘Reggie, I don’t think this is the smartest thing to do.’" Reggie was right, not Roy. Reggie was taken #25 in the 2013 first round, same as Brice. Reggie still plays for the Pistons.

--Harrison Barnes was the #1 recruit in the country out of high school. Despite being considered a certain lottery and possible top 5 pick in the 2011 NBA draft, Barnes opted to return for his sophomore year at UNC. He was taken #7 in the first round of the 2012 draft.

--John Henson was the #4 ranked player in his high school class, a five-star. Roy kept him for 3 years. He was taken #14 in the 2012 draft.

--Tyler Zeller was the #19 ranked player in his high school class, a five star. Roy kept him 4 years. He was taken #17 in the first round of the 2012 draft. Interestingly, Tyler's younger brother Cody Zeller was the #12 rated player in his high school class. Despite being heavily recruited by UNC, he turned them down and chose Indiana. Cody left Indiana early after 2 years, where he was the fourth overall pick in the 2013 NBA draft.

--Kendall Marshall was the #28 ranked player in his high school class, a four star recruit. He played 2 years at UNC. So he did leave UNC early, and was taken as a first round lottery pick #13 in the 2012 draft. In August 2016 he was waived by the Utah Jazz.

--Ed Davis (RSCI #10, 5-star) shined in the 2009 national championship game as a freshman. He appeared on first round mock drafts and there was speculation he would leave, but he chose to return to UNC for his sophomore year. There was speculation that Roy Williams had been hiding Davis from NBA scouts because he played about 20 min/game for that team with Roy opting more for Deon Thompson. Davis shined in the postseason when it was clear he was better than Thompson. During that year while Davis was still at UNC, there was a weird controversy where Davis’s name and photo showed up on an agent’s website as a current client. Davis and his family admitted to meeting with the agent. When asked how Davis’s name and photo got on the website, the agent said it was the work of a hacker: http://acc.blogs.starnewsonline.com/12433/roy-williams-take-on-the-ed-davis-controversy/

Davis declared after his sophomore year and was taken #13 in the 2010 draft.

--Deon Thompson RSCI (#45, 4-star) played 4 years at UNC, went undrafted in 2010, and played in Europe.

--Marcus Ginyard (RSCI #29, 4-star) stayed 4 years and went undrafted in 2010.

--Ty Lawson – RSCI #5 amazingly stayed 3 years at UNC. He was taken #18 in the 2009 draft.

--Tyler Hansbrough RSCI #6 played 4 years for UNC and was taken #13 in the 2009 draft.

--Wayne Ellington RSCI #8 played 3 years at UNC. He was taken in the first round #28 in the 2009 NBA draft.

--Danny Green (RSCI #18, 5-star) played 4 years at UNC. In 2008 he declared himself eligible for the draft, but did not sign with an agent and ultimately decided to return to school for his senior year. He was then taken in the 2nd Round at #46 in the 2009 draft. He was waived by Cleveland after 20 games and played in the D-League. He then was picked up by the Spurs where he has had a very nice career.

--Bobby Frasor (RSCI #31, 4-star) played 4 years at UNC, went undrafted in 2009, and played in Europe.

--Brandan Wright (RSCI #3) was Roy’s second one and done player. It was clear after his freshman year he would be a top ten pick. He was taken #8 in the 2007 draft. He remains in the NBA and plays for Memphis.

--David Noel (2 Star, not highly ranked out of high school) played 4 years at UNC and was drafted in the 2nd Round of the 2006 NBA draft at #39. He played 1 year in the NBA before playing in the D-league and overseas.

--Raymond Felton (RSCI #3) played 3 years for UNC. He was taken #5 in the 2005 NBA Draft.

--Rashad McCants (RSCI #4) played 3 years for UNC which was a surprise for many at the time. Looking back, he admitted to not doing much classwork at UNC. In the 2005 draft he was taken #14. In June 2014, McCants claimed in an interview with ESPN Outside the Lines that he took phony classes and had tutors write his papers. He stated, “the truth is there in the transcripts” regarding the bogus classes. He expressed “knowledge of potential NCAA rule violations involving the University of North Carolina” per a letter signed by the athletics director of compliance. However, after this he refused to discuss the matter publicly. His sister, Rashanda McCants also sued UNC claiming that as a UNC Women’s basketball player she was steered to a “shadow curriculum” of sham “paper classes” which gave her an inferior education.

--Sean May – (RSCI #10) played 3 years for UNC. He was taken #13 in the 2005 NBA Draft lottery.

--Jawad Williams – (RSCI #11) played 4 years for UNC. He went undrafted in 2005. He played overseas, and played briefly in the NBA for the Cavs in 2009 on a non-guaranteed contract. He was waived in Feb 2009. He then played in the D-League and overseas.

--Marvin Williams – (RSCI #7) – Roy’s first one and done at UNC. He was taken with the 2nd overall pick in the 2005 NBA draft. He is still playing in the NBA. There was also speculation that Roy was hiding Marvin from NBA scouts his freshman year. Roy started Jawad Williams over Marvin that season, when Marvin was clearly better.

--Jackie Manuel (RSCI #25) played 4 years for UNC. He was undrafted in the 2005 draft and played some in the D-League.

Wheat/"/"/"
09-27-2016, 06:51 PM
Roy couldn't hold players back even if he wanted to. Kids and parents have direct feedback from the NBA and they make their own decisions. He just hasn't had OAD talent.

The simple truth is all the players you guys pointed to that had high rankings and "should" have or "could" have gone didn't impress the NBA and weren't going to get drafted high. Those rankings did not reflect NBA readiness, and it's unlikely playing anywhere else would have changed that.

It's rival coaches and fans who keep trying to play the "he holds you back" card... and, granted, with some success. But that still doesn't make it true.

richardjackson199
09-27-2016, 07:18 PM
Roy couldn't hold players back even if he wanted to. Kids and parents have direct feedback from the NBA and they make their own decisions. He just hasn't had OAD talent.

The simple truth is all the players you guys pointed to that had high rankings and "should" have or "could" have gone didn't impress the NBA and weren't going to get drafted high. Those rankings did not reflect NBA readiness, and it's unlikely playing anywhere else would have changed that.

It's rival coaches and fans who keep trying to play the "he holds you back" card... and, granted, with some success. But that still doesn't make it true.

Maybe it's karma for the cheating.

bob blue devil
09-27-2016, 08:45 PM
Maybe it's karma for the cheating.

or the lying about the cheating. or the lack of accountability. or the cars. or the drugs. or paid travel for tami. or the ejection of the presbyterian fan. or something i'm forgetting. or one of the many things that haven't come to light. it's got to be for one of those - right?

BLPOG
09-27-2016, 10:39 PM
or the lying about the cheating. or the lack of accountability. or the cars. or the drugs. or paid travel for tami. or the ejection of the presbyterian fan. or something i'm forgetting. or one of the many things that haven't come to light. it's got to be for one of those - right?

Or the learning disability scam. And the adderall.

BD80
09-27-2016, 10:40 PM
All recruiting threads devolve into discussion of unc's past recruiting and development of players.

devildeac
09-27-2016, 10:54 PM
All recruiting threads devolve into discussion of unc's past recruiting and development of players.

And cheating.

Kedsy
09-28-2016, 01:28 AM
Roy's ability to hold back players from leaving early for the NBA draft is incredible. I think there is a pattern from Roy’s tenure at UNC, where he has had 2 one and done players.

I am not a UNC apologist, and obviously the numbers can say lots of things depending on who's looking at them, but I think this sort of thing is a myth, similar to when people used to say Coach K couldn't develop big men (another clearly untrue myth).

First of all, looking at one-and-dones in a timeframe going from 2003 to 2016 is misleading, due to two events: the one-and-done rule being implemented going into the 2006-07 season, and John Calipari coaching at Kentucky, starting with the 2009-10 season. But even using your timeframe, here are some facts for you:

(1) During Roy's tenure at UNC he's had 12 players with recruiting rankings outside the top 5 but inside the top 15. Of those, 7 left UNC early (8 if Jackson leaves after this season), for a percentage of 58.3% (or 66.7%). In the same timeframe, Duke has had 11 such players, but only 4 of them left early (36.4%). Looking at individuals, yeah, #14 Isaiah Hicks is playing his 4th year at UNC, but so did #14 Ryan Kelly; and #15 Theo Pinson seems destined to be a four-year player, but so does #14 Chase Jeter. For top 15 players outside the top 5, Duke has kept a much higher percentage for four years than UNC.

(2) During Roy's tenure at UNC, he's had 5 players with recruiting rankings of 20 or worse get drafted by the NBA (maybe 6 or 7, if Berry and/or Meeks gets drafted). In the same timeframe, Duke has had only two such players get drafted (Miles Plumlee and Daniel Ewing), with the possibility of up to three more (if Grayson, Luke, and/or Amile get drafted). So, at best this category -- which frankly shows "development" more than anything else discussed in this thread -- will be a wash for Duke. More likely, it will look like a small advantage for UNC, possibly a large advantage.

(3) While the one-and-done rule started with the 2006 high school class, things changed dramatically in the NCAA when John Calipari made that ridiculous announcement that getting five guys taken in the first round was the best day in UK history. After that, it seemed leaving after one year carried more status to the typical recruit. Before John Calipari's first year at UK (2009-10), Roy Williams at UNC had recruited five top 5 guys, and in the same time period Duke recruited two top 5 guys. Each school had one top 5 guy go OAD in the period. But since Calipari started at UK, UNC has only had one top 5 recruit (Barnes, who left after his sophomore season), while Duke has had 7 (including Harry and Jayson). And while it's true that if Harry Giles and Jayson Tatum are OAD, then all 7 Duke guys will have left after one season, the real reason UNC doesn't have more OADs is they haven't had a top 5 recruit since Harrison Barnes.

The minor details that Barnes stayed two years when he could have left after one; that #6 McAdoo went undrafted after three years while #6 Kyle Singler went in the 2nd round after four years; and that #9 Jackson has stayed 3 years at UNC while #13 Justise Winslow was OAD, may appear to show a pattern that may have been exploited by competing coaches on the recruiting circuit, but in my mind are more likely isolated data points that prove little if anything. And the datapoints before 2010 prove even less -- while #4 Hansbrough and #15 Green stayed four years, and #4 McCants, #3 Felton, #9 May, and #5 Lawson all stayed three years, it's also true that #6 Chris Duhon, #8 Shelden Williams, #11 JJ Redick, and #13 Greg Paulus all stayed four years, while #14 Shav Randolph stayed three (and went undrafted).

So I don't think Roy has had problems "developing" players, or that he "holds players back." Instead, I think the world changed in 2010, and that Coach K has outrecruited Roy by a country mile since then, and those two things mask everything else.

Wheat/"/"/"
09-28-2016, 07:58 AM
It's easy for us to want to group players into "his 5* players" and look for a pattern, but all these players are so individually different, and the sample size so small, it just makes any conclusions hard to make.

Compare Justin Jackson to Justise Winslow. Two different style players, but both 5* guys with a lot of talent.

Winslow had a great freshman season on a team that won a title and cashed in as a OAD. Good for him.

Jackson has played well but is still developing his game in college.

The big difference? Winslow came into college physically mature. Probably more mentally mature too. He was a tough minded player from day one. He was ready for the next step.

Jackson came in thin as a rail, quiet...even timid at times, after being home schooled and playing in weaker HS competition. He's just taking longer to mature than Winslow did. Both 5* guys but totally different situations relevant to their readiness for the NBA as freshman.

That's why 5* rankings are inaccurate when used to predict whether a player should be OAD.

Side note: Jackson has hit the weight room. I saw video/photo's of him and he's stronger. He's still a long, thin guy, and his offense is more finesse, but he'll be tougher. He's developing. Last season he started to play stronger, more physical than he did as a freshman. He was told he had to by the NBA, so you know he will this season too.

Wheat/"/"/"
09-28-2016, 08:57 AM
...,,So I don't think Roy has had problems "developing" players, or that he "holds players back." Instead, I think the world changed in 2010, and that Coach K has outrecruited Roy by a country mile since then, and those two things mask everything else.

Some solid reasoning in the main post.

But, I'll disagree with this statement and make the argument that Roy has stayed right with coach K in recruiting despite some great challenges the past few seasons.

The point of recruiting is to build competitive teams for titles, not who can sign the most top 5 ranked talented players according to somebody else's opinion.

Roy's teams have been every bit as competitive as coach K's teams, so without the top talent, maybe Roy has evaluated players better?😃

Li_Duke
09-28-2016, 09:58 AM
Some solid reasoning in the main post.

But, I'll disagree with this statement and make the argument that Roy has stayed right with coach K in recruiting despite some great challenges the past few seasons.

The point of recruiting is to build competitive teams for titles, not who can sign the most top 5 ranked talented players according to somebody else's opinion.

Roy's teams have been every bit as competitive as coach K's teams, so without the top talent, maybe Roy has evaluated players better?😃

If you argued that Roy has managed to keep his team competitive, despite some difficulty recruiting as the level he previously did, I would agree. But you have to be kidding yourself if you think Roy has stayed right with coach K in recruiting. I doubt Roy himself would agree with your statement; Roy himself says that the academic scandal has affected recruiting to the point where he would have preferred a quick punishment instead. You can't seriously think that Roy wouldn't have wanted Ingram, Giles, or other top players. I think those were probably top 5 ranked players according to Roy's opinion too. I understand that you are a UNC loyalist, but some truths are just too obvious to ignore.

Ichabod Drain
09-28-2016, 09:59 AM
Some solid reasoning in the main post.

But, I'll disagree with this statement and make the argument that Roy has stayed right with coach K in recruiting despite some great challenges the past few seasons.

The point of recruiting is to build competitive teams for titles, not who can sign the most top 5 ranked talented players according to somebody else's opinion.

Roy's teams have been every bit as competitive as coach K's teams, so without the top talent, maybe Roy has evaluated players better?��

Roy has offered a ton of the top talent in recent classes and spent a large amount of time and energy recruiting those players. He's hardly landed any of them. K has landed a lot of them. I think that is what was meant by K out-recruiting Roy.

For reference in the 2016 class Roy offered six of the top ten players and landed zero of them. K offered three top ten players and landed two of them.

ETA: If you extend that to the top 15 from 2016 Roy went 0/10. K went 4/7.

bob blue devil
09-28-2016, 10:00 AM
Here's my not so bold prediction - 2 years from now Wheat will be absent from these boards because uncheat will be obviously far from title contention. Results of the "Ole Roy the great developer" theory will be there for all to see.

Wheat/"/"/"
09-28-2016, 10:21 AM
If you argued that Roy has managed to keep his team competitive, despite some difficulty recruiting as the level he previously did, I would agree. But you have to be kidding yourself if you think Roy has stayed right with coach K in recruiting. I doubt Roy himself would agree with your statement; Roy himself says that the academic scandal has affected recruiting to the point where he would have preferred a quick punishment instead. You can't seriously think that Roy wouldn't have wanted Ingram, Giles, or other top players. I think those were probably top 5 ranked players according to Roy's opinion too. I understand that you are a UNC loyalist, but some truths are just too obvious to ignore.

Of course Roy wants to sign the top players.

But again, the point of recruiting is to put together teams to challenge for titles. Roy has done that equal to coach K.

Can you argue that Coach K's ability to sign more five stars lately makes Duke more competitive than than UNC?

I don't think so.

Li_Duke
09-28-2016, 10:25 AM
Here's my not so bold prediction - 2 years from now Wheat will be absent from these boards because uncheat will be obviously far from title contention. Results of the "Ole Roy the great developer" theory will be there for all to see.

I hope the part about UNC being obviously far from title contention is true (but not necessarily the part about Wheat being absent from the boards because he does offer a UNC perspective without being hostile or nasty). However, I have a feeling they will bounce back. They are skating on the academic issue. They just went to the national championship game and will be a solid team this year. They have money; they have alumni who are powerful and influential in the field of basketball; they have history (and while some will see that history as tarnished, others will not). I think best case scenario is that they go the way of UCLA post John Wooden, but they won't disappear completely barring a surprising punishment for the academic scandal.

Wheat/"/"/"
09-28-2016, 10:30 AM
Here's my not so bold prediction - 2 years from now Wheat will be absent from these boards because uncheat will be obviously far from title contention. Results of the "Ole Roy the great developer" theory will be there for all to see.

Wishful thinking, I've been around here since about 1997 and see no need to leave as long as things stay reasonably civil.

Roy already has a good jump on future recruiting. He has verbal commitments from Jalek Felton, Reachy Black and Colby White, among others, for a solid future foundation.

bob blue devil
09-28-2016, 10:33 AM
However, I have a feeling they will bounce back.

Eventually, yes. But the team 2 years from now is actually close to being in place. And I suspect it's not going to be what we've come to expect from UNC (on the court, I didn't mean to pay them a compliment).

Li_Duke
09-28-2016, 10:33 AM
Of course Roy wants to sign the top players.

But again, the point of recruiting is to put together teams to challenge for titles. Roy has done that equal to coach K.

Can you argue that Coach K's ability to sign more five stars lately makes Duke more competitive than than UNC?

I don't think so.

I certainly can argue that. UNC has been as good as they have been because their players stayed longer than expected relative to their HS rankings. Either 1) that is by design or 2) that is by chance. If 1), then players of those rankings will probably be less likely to commit to UNC in the future. If 2), you can't necessarily count on that in the future. The ability to recruit at a higher level therefore makes Duke's success more sustainable than UNC, if all else is equal.

You can argue that Roy ability to develop less talented players into contributors offsets Coach K's recruiting advantage. Or that the downtown in recruiting is a blip that will correct itself now that the academic scandal is nearly resolved. But recruiting ability is definitely a big edge in Duke's favor at the moment.

bob blue devil
09-28-2016, 10:35 AM
Wishful thinking, I've been around here since about 1997 and see no need to leave as long as things stay reasonably civil.

Roy already has a good jump on future recruiting. He has verbal commitments from Jalek Felton, Reachy Black and Colby White, among others, for a solid future foundation.

If memory serves, you've had some extended time away coincident with lean years at unc, no?

Li_Duke
09-28-2016, 10:46 AM
Eventually, yes. But the team 2 years from now is actually close to being in place. And I suspect it's not going to be what we've come to expect from UNC (on the court, I didn't mean to pay them a compliment).

I strongly suspect they will get another big piece in recruiting. Some player is going to see a storied program with the chance to play big minutes in a starting role and jump at it. 2 years from now, they will still have a solid starting back court in seniors Berry and Pinson (they may even still have Jackson), freshman Felton, a solid center in Bradley, two potential bench contributors in Robinson and Woods, and someone who will take that last starting spot. That's still probably a ranked program, even if it may not be a title contender.

El_Diablo
09-28-2016, 11:04 AM
Uncle

fraggler
09-28-2016, 11:12 AM
Uncle

Seconded

Ichabod Drain
09-28-2016, 11:17 AM
Uncle

Buck

BLPOG
09-28-2016, 11:24 AM
Buck

Rogers

jimsumner
09-28-2016, 11:25 AM
Rogers

Hornsby.

I like this game. :)

Rich
09-28-2016, 11:26 AM
Rogers

Hornsby (would anything else even work here?)

Wheat/"/"/"
09-28-2016, 11:27 AM
If memory serves, you've had some extended time away coincident with lean years at unc, no?

No, any time away was never anything to do with "lean" years.

I was away around '04-05 when I was traveling nationally a lot and away from a computer-pre cell phone days- and UNC actually won a title.

A couple of years ago I stepped back for a few months when the board was not very civil, at least in my opinion,for a while.
But, long time members stepped up and settled things down so all is good. Nothing to do with UNC's play.

bob blue devil
09-28-2016, 11:29 AM
I strongly suspect they will get another big piece in recruiting. Some player is going to see a storied program with the chance to play big minutes in a starting role and jump at it. 2 years from now, they will still have a solid starting back court in seniors Berry and Pinson (they may even still have Jackson), freshman Felton, a solid center in Bradley, two potential bench contributors in Robinson and Woods, and someone who will take that last starting spot. That's still probably a ranked program, even if it may not be a title contender.

1) we are talking about different years - berry et al are gone in 2
2) it doesnt look like they are reserving space for that big piece (which I dont get, unless some bad news is coming, wishful thinking)

devildeac
09-28-2016, 11:30 AM
No, any time away was never anything to do with "lean" years.

I was away around '04-05 when I was traveling nationally a lot and away from a computer-pre cell phone days- and UNC actually cheated their way to a title.

A couple of years ago I stepped back for a few months when the board was not very civil, at least in my opinion,for a while.
But, long time members stepped up and settled things down so all is good. Nothing to do with UNC's play.

Clarified it for you.

BD80
09-28-2016, 11:34 AM
Hornsby.

I like this game. :)

Bruce

rasputin
09-28-2016, 12:03 PM
Bruce

Robert the

Steven43
09-28-2016, 12:23 PM
I am not a UNC apologist, and obviously the numbers can say lots of things depending on who's looking at them, but I think this sort of thing is a myth, similar to when people used to say Coach K couldn't develop big men (another clearly untrue myth).

First of all, looking at one-and-dones in a timeframe going from 2003 to 2016 is misleading, due to two events: the one-and-done rule being implemented going into the 2006-07 season, and John Calipari coaching at Kentucky, starting with the 2009-10 season. But even using your timeframe, here are some facts for you:

(1) During Roy's tenure at UNC he's had 12 players with recruiting rankings outside the top 5 but inside the top 15. Of those, 7 left UNC early (8 if Jackson leaves after this season), for a percentage of 58.3% (or 66.7%). In the same timeframe, Duke has had 11 such players, but only 4 of them left early (36.4%). Looking at individuals, yeah, #14 Isaiah Hicks is playing his 4th year at UNC, but so did #14 Ryan Kelly; and #15 Theo Pinson seems destined to be a four-year player, but so does #14 Chase Jeter. For top 15 players outside the top 5, Duke has kept a much higher percentage for four years than UNC.

(2) During Roy's tenure at UNC, he's had 5 players with recruiting rankings of 20 or worse get drafted by the NBA (maybe 6 or 7, if Berry and/or Meeks gets drafted). In the same timeframe, Duke has had only two such players get drafted (Miles Plumlee and Daniel Ewing), with the possibility of up to three more (if Grayson, Luke, and/or Amile get drafted). So, at best this category -- which frankly shows "development" more than anything else discussed in this thread -- will be a wash for Duke. More likely, it will look like a small advantage for UNC, possibly a large advantage.

(3) While the one-and-done rule started with the 2006 high school class, things changed dramatically in the NCAA when John Calipari made that ridiculous announcement that getting five guys taken in the first round was the best day in UK history. After that, it seemed leaving after one year carried more status to the typical recruit. Before John Calipari's first year at UK (2009-10), Roy Williams at UNC had recruited five top 5 guys, and in the same time period Duke recruited two top 5 guys. Each school had one top 5 guy go OAD in the period. But since Calipari started at UK, UNC has only had one top 5 recruit (Barnes, who left after his sophomore season), while Duke has had 7 (including Harry and Jayson). And while it's true that if Harry Giles and Jayson Tatum are OAD, then all 7 Duke guys will have left after one season, the real reason UNC doesn't have more OADs is they haven't had a top 5 recruit since Harrison Barnes.

The minor details that Barnes stayed two years when he could have left after one; that #6 McAdoo went undrafted after three years while #6 Kyle Singler went in the 2nd round after four years; and that #9 Jackson has stayed 3 years at UNC while #13 Justise Winslow was OAD, may appear to show a pattern that may have been exploited by competing coaches on the recruiting circuit, but in my mind are more likely isolated data points that prove little if anything. And the datapoints before 2010 prove even less -- while #4 Hansbrough and #15 Green stayed four years, and #4 McCants, #3 Felton, #9 May, and #5 Lawson all stayed three years, it's also true that #6 Chris Duhon, #8 Shelden Williams, #11 JJ Redick, and #13 Greg Paulus all stayed four years, while #14 Shav Randolph stayed three (and went undrafted).

So I don't think Roy has had problems "developing" players, or that he "holds players back." Instead, I think the world changed in 2010, and that Coach K has outrecruited Roy by a country mile since then, and those two things mask everything else.

Oh that's just wonderful; thanks a bunch, Kedsy. You come along and in one post casually obliterate beyond recognition the prevailing notion that UNC and Roy do a mediocre job developing players and purposely prevent them from leaving early for the NBA, while Duke and K do just the opposite. You have to be a double agent working for Roy. There could be no other explanation. But why blow your cover now? Are you retiring or something?

richardjackson199
09-28-2016, 02:00 PM
I am not a UNC apologist, and obviously the numbers can say lots of things depending on who's looking at them, but I think this sort of thing is a myth, similar to when people used to say Coach K couldn't develop big men (another clearly untrue myth).

First of all, looking at one-and-dones in a timeframe going from 2003 to 2016 is misleading, due to two events: the one-and-done rule being implemented going into the 2006-07 season, and John Calipari coaching at Kentucky, starting with the 2009-10 season. But even using your timeframe, here are some facts for you:

(1) During Roy's tenure at UNC he's had 12 players with recruiting rankings outside the top 5 but inside the top 15. Of those, 7 left UNC early (8 if Jackson leaves after this season), for a percentage of 58.3% (or 66.7%). In the same timeframe, Duke has had 11 such players, but only 4 of them left early (36.4%). Looking at individuals, yeah, #14 Isaiah Hicks is playing his 4th year at UNC, but so did #14 Ryan Kelly; and #15 Theo Pinson seems destined to be a four-year player, but so does #14 Chase Jeter. For top 15 players outside the top 5, Duke has kept a much higher percentage for four years than UNC.

(2) During Roy's tenure at UNC, he's had 5 players with recruiting rankings of 20 or worse get drafted by the NBA (maybe 6 or 7, if Berry and/or Meeks gets drafted). In the same timeframe, Duke has had only two such players get drafted (Miles Plumlee and Daniel Ewing), with the possibility of up to three more (if Grayson, Luke, and/or Amile get drafted). So, at best this category -- which frankly shows "development" more than anything else discussed in this thread -- will be a wash for Duke. More likely, it will look like a small advantage for UNC, possibly a large advantage.

(3) While the one-and-done rule started with the 2006 high school class, things changed dramatically in the NCAA when John Calipari made that ridiculous announcement that getting five guys taken in the first round was the best day in UK history. After that, it seemed leaving after one year carried more status to the typical recruit. Before John Calipari's first year at UK (2009-10), Roy Williams at UNC had recruited five top 5 guys, and in the same time period Duke recruited two top 5 guys. Each school had one top 5 guy go OAD in the period. But since Calipari started at UK, UNC has only had one top 5 recruit (Barnes, who left after his sophomore season), while Duke has had 7 (including Harry and Jayson). And while it's true that if Harry Giles and Jayson Tatum are OAD, then all 7 Duke guys will have left after one season, the real reason UNC doesn't have more OADs is they haven't had a top 5 recruit since Harrison Barnes.

The minor details that Barnes stayed two years when he could have left after one; that #6 McAdoo went undrafted after three years while #6 Kyle Singler went in the 2nd round after four years; and that #9 Jackson has stayed 3 years at UNC while #13 Justise Winslow was OAD, may appear to show a pattern that may have been exploited by competing coaches on the recruiting circuit, but in my mind are more likely isolated data points that prove little if anything. And the datapoints before 2010 prove even less -- while #4 Hansbrough and #15 Green stayed four years, and #4 McCants, #3 Felton, #9 May, and #5 Lawson all stayed three years, it's also true that #6 Chris Duhon, #8 Shelden Williams, #11 JJ Redick, and #13 Greg Paulus all stayed four years, while #14 Shav Randolph stayed three (and went undrafted).

So I don't think Roy has had problems "developing" players, or that he "holds players back." Instead, I think the world changed in 2010, and that Coach K has outrecruited Roy by a country mile since then, and those two things mask everything else.

Some 2017 recruiting update: Things continue to trend quite poorly for Duke getting Quade Green, per the 247 Crystal Ball. A few days ago Andrew Slater, one of the 247 guys I trust most, flipped from Duke to Syracuse. Since around early Sept., Syracuse has gone from about 12% now to 71% on 247 CB. In the same time Duke has dropped from 75% to 18%. No recruiting guru I trust is still picking Duke. The most optimistic pick Duke has in my mind is Sept. 3 when Adam Rowe went from Duke to Foggy (instead of Duke to Syracuse). It sounds like Lloyd Christmas, so you're sayin there's a chance, odds now. Things can change quickly in recruiting, but as of right now it's safe to assume Syracuse is the strong leader. I'll hold out hope that an insider says it's not over yet and Duke is still in it. This point guard is a stud, and Tyus and many have shown that a stud point guard can quarterback a loaded team to a Natty.

On the very positive side, Duke looks to be in great shape for Carter, Trent, Knox, Bamba, and Coleman. Roy - not so much. (For those only here for 2017 recruiting news, stop reading. I continue the Roy is lame debate below).

To respond to Kedsy - you make some good and valid points. Of course I can't prove Roy "holds players back." I picked the timeframe to include literally every 4-5 star player that Roy has had at UNC with any theoretical chance of playing in the NBA. I can't begin to try to debate stats with Kedsy, but I figured that gives the biggest possible Roy-at-UNC sample size. I just gave the outcome of each player. Draw your own conclusions.

Sure the landscape has changed dramatically over time, but players could still go one and done before the 2006-2007 OAD rule. Maggette, Deng, Bosh, Marbury, Dion Glover, and Marvin Williams were some ACC examples. But the effects of the changing landscape (both with the OAD rule and with Calipari culture) are that you would think more kids would go one and done. Yet Roy has had fewer. Brandan Wright is the only OAD player he had after the OAD rule change (same year - 2007), and that was well before Cal at UK. As you point out, K had higher percentage OAD's pre-Calipari than Roy, too. (50 % of 2 top-five guys > 20% of 5 top-five guys, 1=1, but higher percentage of the usual suspects who do it). Post Calipari, it's true that Harrison Barnes is just one data point. But he was the #1 player in that class, and he did not improve his draft stock by staying another year. Fair or unfair, Roy hasn't had any OAD's in a long while, and he has had a lot of pretty highly rated and/or highly talented guys who stay at UNC longer than expected.

Roy at UNC has literally had more players transfer to UCLA (D. Wear, T. Wear, and Larry Drew) than players go one and done. Roy has also had way more than his fair share of players with good NBA draft stock (likely to go in the first round) choose instead to return to UNC for another year. Up through Harrison Barnes, Roy was always regarded as one of the absolute best recruiters in the country for top guys. So it does say something to me when Roy has so few one and dones, and so many players who would be drafted in the first round who opt for another year at UNC. Would guys like McCants and Hansbrough have stayed at UNC if they'd had to go to class and do work? Would P.J. have stayed if he wasn't getting free Camaro's and cars to drive?

I think it's a stretch to use maybe's, what if's, and who might stay/leave in the future to try to support your argument. I also disagree that the number of RSCI 20 ranking or worse players who get drafted shows development in your point #2. You're not counting Marshall Plumlee (RSCI #50), for example who got a guaranteed NBA contract, undrafted. That is better than getting drafted in the 2nd round and getting cut.

Development is not equal to being "drafted." I don't have the numbers, but I'd bet K's players are on the whole more successful in life than Roy's. Maybe that has something to do with their development under K. From your first point, maybe the 7 players ranked 6-15 didn't leave early because they knew a Duke degree would help ensure their future success if the NBA was iffy. I don't read about as many issues and legal problems with K's guys like I do with Roy's (Felton's felony gun charges; Lawson's DWI and drinking and driving charges dating back to when he played for UNC; PJ Hairston at UNC, or even just Rashad McCants calling out his former teammates on ESPN for cheating. And those are Roy's guys who made it to the NBA.

K teaches his players accountability, responsibility, and earning success. Roy enables. What punishment did Ty Lawson get at UNC when he was drinking and driving? http://www.wral.com/news/local/story/3002427/
None that I remember. In the NBA, Lawson's DUI's appear to have continued as manifestation of severe affliction: http://bsndenver.com/ty-lawson-espn-windhorst-nuggets-rockets/

What punishment did Roy want to give P.J. after repeated offenses? An offseason conditioning program. P.J. getting permanently suspended only happened when it went above Roy's head, and Roy was not happy. Or Will Graves who was kicked off UNC in 2010. He was then working as a video coordinator for the basketball team when he got arrested for drug charges while living in one of Roy Williams houses! More enabling.

Was Rashad McCants learning responsibility when he made Deans List and straight A's in 4 classes which he admitted to never attending, never doing any work, and having tutors write his papers? Rashad said Roy Williams "100 percent" knew about it: http://deadspin.com/rashad-mccants-made-the-deans-list-at-unc-without-atte-1587050360

We have heard that K's pitch to recruits is that K/Duke will prepare them to be set for life, ie to succeed. I am not surprised K is now out-recruiting Roy. Sure Art Chansky, it's gotta be due to all those gold medals at the Olympics.

Kedsy
09-28-2016, 02:36 PM
Sure the landscape has changed dramatically over time, but players could still go one and done before the 2006-2007 OAD rule. Maggette, Deng, Bosh, Marbury, Dion Glover, and Marvin Williams were some ACC examples.

Sure, but it was a different world. Just a couple years before Roy got to UNC, Jason Williams, Carlos Boozer, and Mike Dunleavy all stayed three years at Duke, too. Shane Battier stayed four. A couple years before that, Elton Brand stayed two years. It shouldn't be considered unusual that guys like Felton, McCants, May, and Hansbrough stayed three or four years in that era (especially Hansbrough, whose draft stock wasn't particularly high, not that different from Kyle Singler). And the only reason Ty Lawson stayed three years instead of two was that drunk driving incident deflated his draft stock after his sophomore year (which is difficult to pin on Roy).


But the effects of the changing landscape (both with the OAD rule and with Calipari culture) are that you would think more kids would go one and done. Yet Roy has had fewer.

As I attempted to say in my earlier post, you can make a pretty strong argument that the sole reason for Roy's lack of OADs in this timeframe is the fact that he hasn't recruited any top 5 recruits since 2010.


Post Calipari, it's true that Harrison Barnes is just one data point. But he was the #1 player in that class, and he did not improve his draft stock by staying another year.

And just a few years before Barnes, Josh McRoberts was the #1 recruit, stayed two years at Duke, and slipped to the 2nd round. One data point is one data point.


I also disagree that the number of RSCI 20 ranking or worse players who get drafted shows development in your point #2.

It's not definitive proof, but it's pretty good evidence. If a guy like unranked David Noel can get to the point where an NBA team wants to draft him, that sounds like development to me. Same with #57 Tokoto, #28 Paige, #40 Johnson, and #28 Kendall Marshall (who went after two years and was a lottery pick).



You're not counting Marshall Plumlee (RSCI #50), for example who got a guaranteed NBA contract, undrafted.

Also Lance Thomas, Seth Curry, Andre Dawkins, Shav Randolph, and DeMarcus Nelson, on the Duke side. But under that metric, JM McAdoo did OK for himself.


I'd bet K's players are on the whole more successful in life than Roy's.

* * *

K teaches his players accountability, responsibility, and earning success. Roy enables.


Now you're moving the goalposts. I'm certainly not arguing that Roy is a better coach or a better guy or a better preparer-for-life. But that wasn't what we were discussing. For awhile now, people have been perpetuating the idea that Roy can't develop players and that he holds them back, keeps them for more years than he should. My only point was that the evidence doesn't support this myth. The truth would appear to be that Roy simply hasn't recruited as well the past six years (whether it's because of the scandal or because of the myth or because recruits just see through him now isn't really relevant to this discussion). That inability to bring in top 5 guys combined with the small sample size would appear to explain the lack of OADs much more readily than the popular theories.

richardjackson199
09-28-2016, 03:12 PM
...And the only reason Ty Lawson stayed three years instead of two was that drunk driving incident deflated his draft stock after his sophomore year (which is difficult to pin on Roy)...

Actually this point is very debatable, and I'd say not true. From link below: "Lawson is one of three UNC-Chapel Hill basketball players who have entered their names in the NBA draft pool. They have until June 16 to make a final decision before the June 26 draft. He told WRAL in a May 28 interview that he had a target in mind and would like to be assured of a top-20 spot in the draft before making any kind of permanent decision on staying in the draft.
Marty Blake, the NBA’s director of scouting, said from his office in Alpharetta, Ga., that he projects Lawson as a first-round pick, and the arrest will not affect Lawson’s status.
“It’s not going to make any difference. I think this is an isolated case,” Blake said.
Blake said many NBA clubs are looking for point guards and praised Lawson’s quickness and overall ability.
“I think he’d be drafted in the first round. He is a very good basketball player. He has very good speed,” Blake said."

http://www.wral.com/news/local/story/3002427/

Lawson was taken #18 in 2009, so I doubt he improved his draft stock by staying.

I won't argue there was a time when K wanted to keep his players too. K wasn't thrilled to lose Maggette early, Avery early, Deng early, Dunleavy early, etc. His earlier model was guys like Grant Hill and Battier who were studs for 4 years and left with a degree. Or Jason Williams who left with a degree after 3 years even though he could have been a top pick after sophomore year. Grayson Allen appears to have decided upon a similar path, and he may get his jersey retired along with that Duke degree. Were many of these Heels who could be drafted in the first staying longer to get their degree? Maybe, but I doubt it when their peer UNC athletes sued UNC that their degree was a sham education. My point is just that overall, K adapted quickly to the Calipari culture. I choose to believe that Roy has tried to keep his players longer, even when they have high draft stock. I think Roy wanted to keep them longer to try to help himself win more championships. I think Roy was slow to adapt to the new landscape, which is partly why he is no longer in play for top recruits.

I think most of us agree that rankings don't always mean everything. I think most of us agree that guys like Paige and Brice would have also been studs at Duke. Just like guys like Okafor and Tyus would have been studs at UNC. Would Tyus have been OAD out of UNC? Impossible to say.

You make good points as always Kedsy. So Uncle from me. 9F and the cheating horse they rode in on.

But if by chance Reed can't extend his range beyond 18 yards, can I keep moving those goalposts?

DukeFanSince1990
09-28-2016, 03:32 PM
Bruce

Wayne

GGLC
09-28-2016, 03:43 PM
When UNC consistently has the highest-ranked recruit(s) of a given class year to stay in school the longest rather than leaving for the NBA, it's not a sample size thing any more, but a pervasive and consistent pattern.

Whether that says anything about their development, I don't know or care, but it's inarguable that since the advent of the one and done era (and I mean the actual advent, not some intangible development in 2010) Carolina consistently keeps its, say, RSCI Top 20 players in school for more years than equivalently-ranked players (or, in the case of people like Hansbrough or Zeller, than equivalently high-performing players in college). If you want to say it's coincidence, fine...but we're now up to around a dozen data points of coincidence:

Pinson - one of only three top 15 RSCI players for that class not to be one and done (along with Jackson)
Jackson - one of only three top 15 RSCI players for that class not to be one and done (along with Pinson)
Hicks - one of only three top 15 RSCI players for that class to still be in school at the end of last season
McAdoo - one of only three top 15 RSCI players for that class not to turn pro by the end of their sophomore year (along with Hairston)
Hairston - one of only three top 15 RSCI players for that class not to turn pro by the end of their sophomore year (along with McAdoo)
Barnes - as far as I know, the only RSCI #1 player in one and done era to stay two seasons
Bullock - last player in top 15 RSCI players for that class to turn pro
Henson - RSCI #5 in 2009, four players above him were all one and done, he stayed for three seasons despite a dominating sophomore year
Zeller - RSCI #18 in 2008, stayed four seasons despite a dominating junior year
Lawson - only RSCI top 5 player in class of 2006 not to be one and done, and he stayed three seasons
Hansbrough - RSCI #4 in 2005, stayed four seasons despite posting a high-usage .626 TS% his FRESHMAN year (18.9 ppg, 7.8 rpg) and consistently crushing souls his entire college career
Green - RSCI top 15 in 2005, stayed all four seasons

while in the other bucket, of RSCI Top 20 people who left school commensurate with, or ahead of, their class cohort, you've got...Brandan Wright (one year) and probably Wayne Ellington (#8 RSCI recruit who left after three seasons, but so did most of the players in the back end of the top 10 that year)

So, yeah. Color me unconvinced by the sample size argument.

Kedsy
09-28-2016, 04:18 PM
Pinson - one of only three top 15 RSCI players for that class not to be one and done (along with Jackson) (Cf., Chase Jeter, #14 in 2015)
Jackson - one of only three top 15 RSCI players for that class not to be one and done (along with Pinson) (No obvious analog, in large part because Duke hasn't gotten many guys in the latter part of the top ten lately)
Hicks - one of only three top 15 RSCI players for that class to still be in school at the end of last season (Cf., Ryan Kelly, #14 in 2009, stayed four seasons)
McAdoo - one of only three top 15 RSCI players for that class not to turn pro by the end of their sophomore year (along with Hairston) (no obvious analog)
Hairston - one of only three top 15 RSCI players for that class not to turn pro by the end of their sophomore year (along with McAdoo) (Cf., Rasheed Sulaimon, #12 in 2012, played four college seasons)
Barnes - as far as I know, the only RSCI #1 player in one and done era to stay two seasons (Cf., Josh McRoberts, #1 in 2005 (one year before "one and done era"), stayed two seasons)
Bullock - last player in top 15 RSCI players for that class to turn pro (Cf., Mason Plumlee #18 in 2009, stayed four seasons)
Henson - RSCI #5 in 2009, four players above him were all one and done, he stayed for three seasons despite a dominating sophomore year (Cf., Shelden Williams, #8 in 2002, stayed four seasons)
Zeller - RSCI #18 in 2008, stayed four seasons despite a dominating junior year (Cf., Nolan Smith, #18 in 2007, stayed four seasons)
Lawson - only RSCI top 5 player in class of 2006 not to be one and done, and he stayed three seasons (Cf., Chris Duhon, #6 in 2001, stayed four seasons)
Hansbrough - RSCI #4 in 2005, stayed four seasons despite posting a high-usage .626 TS% his FRESHMAN year (18.9 ppg, 7.8 rpg) and consistently crushing souls his entire college career (Cf., Kyle Singler, #6 in 2007, stayed four seasons)
Green - RSCI top 15 in 2005, stayed all four seasons (Cf., Greg Paulus, #13 in 2005, stayed all four years and was undrafted)

You can argue any of my individual comparisons above (I won't argue back, I promise), but the fact that it's not so hard to find Duke analogs for all but two of your data points above does suggest that sample size and the color of your sunglasses are important (perhaps deciding) issues in this discussion.

Olympic Fan
09-28-2016, 04:30 PM
You can argue any of my individual comparisons above (I won't argue back, I promise), but the fact that it's not so hard to find Duke analogs for all but two of your data points above does suggest that sample size and the color of your sunglasses are important (perhaps deciding) issues in this discussion.

Well, not to debate all this, but can I point out that equating rankings from one class to another is dangerous.

For instance, Chase Jeter at No. 14 in the weak class of 2015 is very different from Justise Winslow at No. 13 in the much stronger Class of 2014. I would argue that if Winslow had been in the Class of 2015 (as the same player), he's No. 4 or No. 5 ... if Jeter were in the class of 2014 (as the same player), I doubt he would be top 20.

For that reason, comparisons within a class seem valid to me ... comparing "analogs" from one class to another can be very misleading.

GGLC
09-28-2016, 04:42 PM
You can argue any of my individual comparisons above (I won't argue back, I promise), but the fact that it's not so hard to find Duke analogs for all but two of your data points above does suggest that sample size and the color of your sunglasses are important (perhaps deciding) issues in this discussion.

Fair enough, although I agree with Olympic Fan and would also suggest that, as much as we loved him, Kyle's first two college years didn't hold a candle to those of Tyler Hansbrough (and his junior year, while great, also paled in comparison to Hansbrough's junior year).

Some of the other analogues are certainly apt, however. (Though I'm fairly certain that, had Shelden played in the OAD era, there is very little chance in the world that he would have stayed even three seasons, as Henson did.)

GGLC
09-28-2016, 04:43 PM
Thanks for that response, Kedsy, because I actually hadn't realized how similar Nolan Smith and Tyler Zeller's collegiate career arcs were, despite being fundamentally different players.

Wheat/"/"/"
09-28-2016, 04:50 PM
When UNC consistently has the highest-ranked recruit(s) of a given class year to stay in school the longest rather than leaving for the NBA, it's not a sample size thing any more, but a pervasive and consistent pattern.

Whether that says anything about their development, I don't know or care, but it's inarguable that since the advent of the one and done era (and I mean the actual advent, not some intangible development in 2010) Carolina consistently keeps its, say, RSCI Top 20 players in school for more years than equivalently-ranked players (or, in the case of people like Hansbrough or Zeller, than equivalently high-performing players in college). If you want to say it's coincidence, fine...but we're now up to around a dozen data points of coincidence:

Pinson - one of only three top 15 RSCI players for that class not to be one and done (along with Jackson)
Jackson - one of only three top 15 RSCI players for that class not to be one and done (along with Pinson)
Hicks - one of only three top 15 RSCI players for that class to still be in school at the end of last season
McAdoo - one of only three top 15 RSCI players for that class not to turn pro by the end of their sophomore year (along with Hairston)
Hairston - one of only three top 15 RSCI players for that class not to turn pro by the end of their sophomore year (along with McAdoo)
Barnes - as far as I know, the only RSCI #1 player in one and done era to stay two seasons
Bullock - last player in top 15 RSCI players for that class to turn pro
Henson - RSCI #5 in 2009, four players above him were all one and done, he stayed for three seasons despite a dominating sophomore year
Zeller - RSCI #18 in 2008, stayed four seasons despite a dominating junior year
Lawson - only RSCI top 5 player in class of 2006 not to be one and done, and he stayed three seasons
Hansbrough - RSCI #4 in 2005, stayed four seasons despite posting a high-usage .626 TS% his FRESHMAN year (18.9 ppg, 7.8 rpg) and consistently crushing souls his entire college career
Green - RSCI top 15 in 2005, stayed all four seasons

while in the other bucket, of RSCI Top 20 people who left school commensurate with, or ahead of, their class cohort, you've got...Brandan Wright (one year) and probably Wayne Ellington (#8 RSCI recruit who left after three seasons, but so did most of the players in the back end of the top 10 that year)

So, yeah. Color me unconvinced by the sample size argument.

I'm sure you saw all these players play as freshman.
With the exception of Barnes and MacAdoo, did you see a single one that you think if he would have played at Duke, or anwhere else, somebody would have drafted them in the first round of the NBA draft?

I don't.

Roy played them as freshmen showcased their game too, except Zeller who was injured as I recall.

Barnes and McAdoo made their own decision to stay, and I've never heard them second guess their decision, much less say Roy held them back or tried to get them to stay for some selfish reason. They all made their own decisions.

Olympic Fan
09-28-2016, 04:55 PM
The only thing I would add is that making comparisons between Roy NOW and Coach K in the pre-2011 era are misleading.

I will agree wholeheartedly that through 2010, Coach K was perceived (rightly) as a coach who encouraged his kids to stay. Heck, before 1999, he was the poster child for coaches who held on to his players for four years. Between 1999 and 2010, he lost a few guys early -- including two one-and-dones -- but he was still regarded (rightly) as a coach who didn't rush guys to the NBA.

That changed with Kyrie and accelerated with Austin, Jabari, the 2015 trio and Brandon last year. Now, K and Calipari are the two coaches perceived (rightly) as the best conduits for OAD players.

The point is that K changed to embrace the OAD culture ... Roy is still resisting the modern era and the impatience of most top players to get to the NBA. And that resistance -- more than the looming scandal -- is why his recruiting has fallen off.

And it has fallen off. I agree that it's possible for a team of experience, well-developed four-stars to compete at the highest level -- that's how the good mid-majors do it.

But can a blueblood compete consistently without five-star talent?

UNC reached the title game last year with two overachieving (or to be nice to Roy, well-developed) four-stars (Johnson and Paige), supported by four five-stars (Berry, Jackson, Pinson and Hicks). The two great four-stars are gone and they have added a single five-star in the freshman class. But every other recruit in the classes of 2015, 2016, 2017 and (so far the first two guys of 2018) are three and four star prospects.

That's going to be hard to sustain success without at least a few OAD talents over the next couple of years.

flyingdutchdevil
09-28-2016, 04:57 PM
I'm sure you saw all these players play as freshman.
With the exception of Barnes and MacAdoo, did you see a single one that you think if he would have played at Duke, or anwhere else, somebody would have drafted them in the first round of the NBA draft?

I don't.

Roy played them as freshmen showcased their game too, except Zeller who was injured as I recall.

Barnes and McAdoo made their own decision to stay, and I've never heard them second guess their decision, much less say Roy held them back or tried to get them to stay for some selfish reason. They all made their own decisions.

Do players ever publicly second guess their decision? Why would a player call out their own stupidity?

McBob hasn't either, but I'd put money that he regrets staying for his sophomore year. And I'm a little shocked that you're not admitting otherwise with McAdoo (Barnes was a really unique case).

GGLC
09-28-2016, 05:21 PM
I'm sure you saw all these players play as freshman.
With the exception of Barnes and MacAdoo, did you see a single one that you think if he would have played at Duke, or anwhere else, somebody would have drafted them in the first round of the NBA draft?

I don't.

Roy played them as freshmen showcased their game too, except Zeller who was injured as I recall.

Barnes and McAdoo made their own decision to stay, and I've never heard them second guess their decision, much less say Roy held them back or tried to get them to stay for some selfish reason. They all made their own decisions.

Hansbrough, certainly, and potentially (it's all about that potential) Lawson, Henson, and Jackson. I also question your assertion that Roy played them as freshmen and showcased their game, since (for example) P.J. Hairston logged 13 mpg as a freshman, Hicks played 7 mpg, Bullock 14.5 mpg. Obviously that's a chicken-and-egg thing, though. Regardless, I respectfully suggest that you're potentially conflating a bunch of different things with your question, and I'm disinclined to disentangle it.

ChillinDuke
09-28-2016, 05:21 PM
UNC reached the title game last year with two overachieving (or to be nice to Roy, well-developed) four-stars (Johnson and Paige), supported by four five-stars (Berry, Jackson, Pinson and Hicks). The two great four-stars are gone and they have added a single five-star in the freshman class. But every other recruit in the classes of 2015, 2016, 2017 and (so far the first two guys of 2018) are three and four star prospects.

That's going to be hard to sustain success without at least a few OAD talents over the next couple of years.

Isn't this essentially how UVA has operated under Bennett? And wouldn't you agree they have had sustained success the last few years?

I would venture to guess that they will continue to have sustained success, despite hardly ever seeming to be involved with the recruits we are looking at (read: 5 stars).

- Chillin

richardjackson199
09-28-2016, 05:31 PM
Isn't this essentially how UVA has operated under Bennett? And wouldn't you agree they have had sustained success the last few years?

I would venture to guess that they will continue to have sustained success, despite hardly ever seeming to be involved with the recruits we are looking at (read: 5 stars).

- Chillin

UVA, Villanova, Miami, Syracuse, etc. do it with exceptional coaching, system, and gameplan. I would say that is different from UNC. UNC did it last year with experienced talent. That has always been Roy's best model for success. I think Roy's in-game coaching is a notch below Bennett, Larranaga, Boeheim, and Wright. UNC will get away with it again this year with more experienced talent. But after that, it could get ugly depending on who leaves.

Thus I would expect UVA, Nova, Syracuse, and Miami to have continued success.

Wheat/"/"/"
09-28-2016, 05:34 PM
The only thing I would add is that making comparisons between Roy NOW and Coach K in the pre-2011 era are misleading.

I will agree wholeheartedly that through 2010, Coach K was perceived (rightly) as a coach who encouraged his kids to stay. Heck, before 1999, he was the poster child for coaches who held on to his players for four years. Between 1999 and 2010, he lost a few guys early -- including two one-and-dones -- but he was still regarded (rightly) as a coach who didn't rush guys to the NBA.

That changed with Kyrie and accelerated with Austin, Jabari, the 2015 trio and Brandon last year. Now, K and Calipari are the two coaches perceived (rightly) as the best conduits for OAD players.

The point is that K changed to embrace the OAD culture ... Roy is still resisting the modern era and the impatience of most top players to get to the NBA. And that resistance -- more than the looming scandal -- is why his recruiting has fallen off.

And it has fallen off. I agree that it's possible for a team of experience, well-developed four-stars to compete at the highest level -- that's how the good mid-majors do it.

But can a blueblood compete consistently without five-star talent?

UNC reached the title game last year with two overachieving (or to be nice to Roy, well-developed) four-stars (Johnson and Paige), supported by four five-stars (Berry, Jackson, Pinson and Hicks). The two great four-stars are gone and they have added a single five-star in the freshman class. But every other recruit in the classes of 2015, 2016, 2017 and (so far the first two guys of 2018) are three and four star prospects.

That's going to be hard to sustain success without at least a few OAD talents over the next couple of years.

Roy will get some 5* talent going forward, but really I don't care about the rankings, I care if they can play in Roy's system.

BTW, I think we are going to see the benefit of a player deciding not to rush their decision to attempt the NBA too early when you see Hicks play this season.

He was great athlete coming in, but I think we are going to see him as a high level player this season and be drafted first round.

One other thing. Pressure is squarely on Duke this season. If you don't win, the narrative will be, "coach K can't even win with all that talent". His OAD strategy is failing...yada, yada, yada...

You won't hear that from me, but you're likely to hear it if you don't win it all.

El_Diablo
09-28-2016, 05:55 PM
You can argue any of my individual comparisons above (I won't argue back, I promise), but the fact that it's not so hard to find Duke analogs for all but two of your data points above does suggest that sample size and the color of your sunglasses are important (perhaps deciding) issues in this discussion.

For Duke's freshman class, the 25th percentile of SAT scores was 2130.
For UNC's freshman class, the 75th percentile of SAT scores was 2130.
There are people with 2130s at both schools. But so what?

Yes, there are some similarities between Duke and UNC in terms of having some highly-ranked players stick around, but the fact that there are no Duke analogs for some on the low end of the bell curve is compounded by the fact that there are no UNC analogs for several Duke players on the high end of the bell curve (e.g., Irving, Rivers, Parker, Okafor, Jones, Winslow, Ingram). Your wall of text of aggregating draft rates over the years (which you posted earlier) is probably more instructive because it addresses the full data set rather than just cherry picking a few examples over a much larger timeframe.

richardjackson199
09-28-2016, 05:58 PM
One other thing. Pressure is squarely on Duke this season. If you don't win, the narrative will be, "coach K can't even win with all that talent". His OAD strategy is failing...yada, yada, yada...

You won't hear that from me, but you're likely to hear it if you don't win it all.

That's like saying pressure was squarely on #1 seed UNC last year after the tourney field opened up for them. They played no seed higher than #5 until #2 Nova in the championship game. They had so much quality size over Nova, and they still choked on the biggest stage despite all that talent. Roy couldn't even win with all that talent.

K will be fine. K won the Natty in 2015 when Calipari was supposed to go 40-0. Cal is still getting OAD's despite only winning 1 Natty with his OAD era.

K knows how to handle pressure and a team full of talented players. It's a good problem to have. This year's team will have a blast playing together, and it will be a fun ride. No matter the outcome, our recruiting prospects for next year look pretty promising as well. I think by winning 5 Natty's, about one every 5 years, K has shown that he can win with all that talent. Haters can try that narrative. But it won't work. And when Duke does get it done this year, their head will explode.

77devil
09-28-2016, 05:58 PM
You won't hear that from me, but you're likely to hear it if you don't win it all.

Except we just did. K just coached team USA to another gold and has coached two NCAA championship teams since Roy won with ineligible players. The pressure is all on Roy.

BD80
09-28-2016, 05:58 PM
Roy will get some 5* talent going forward, but really I don't care about the rankings, I care if they can play in Roy's system.

...

No concerns as to whether they can cut it academically?

I crack myself up

slower
09-28-2016, 06:02 PM
If you don't win, the narrative will be...

You won't hear that from me, but you're likely to hear it if you don't win it all.

Oh, I'm quite sure we'll hear SOMETHING from you.

Sandman
09-28-2016, 07:02 PM
Wayne

Just can't resist....the lure is too bright and shiny!

NEWTON (Danke Schoen)

BD80
09-28-2016, 07:58 PM
Just can't resist...the lure is too bright and shiny!

NEWTON (Danke Schoen)

Speaking of all tatted up and pierced ... GREG!

WWBD
09-29-2016, 01:08 AM
I'm sure you saw all these players play as freshman.
With the exception of Barnes and MacAdoo, did you see a single one that you think if he would have played at Duke, or anwhere else, somebody would have drafted them in the first round of the NBA draft?

I don't.

Roy played them as freshmen showcased their game too, except Zeller who was injured as I recall.

Barnes and McAdoo made their own decision to stay, and I've never heard them second guess their decision, much less say Roy held them back or tried to get them to stay for some selfish reason. They all made their own decisions.

This is either disingenuous or completely naive. Barnes _couldn't_ go pro after his freshman year, because he had become a borderline first round pick. Roy did NOT know how to coach him or utilize/showcase him.

Brandon Ingram could have been in the same position last year. He had a similarly disappointing non-conference season as freshman Barnes did. But the difference is Coach K developed him, stuck with him, and featured him to both his benefit and the team's.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
09-29-2016, 02:10 AM
Speaking of all tatted up and pierced ... GREG!

Paulus! (amidoinitrite?)

No, wait, that's a real game killer.

Wheat/"/"/"
09-29-2016, 08:41 AM
This is either disingenuous or completely naive. Barnes _couldn't_ go pro after his freshman year, because he had become a borderline first round pick. Roy did NOT know how to coach him or utilize/showcase him.

Brandon Ingram could have been in the same position last year. He had a similarly disappointing non-conference season as freshman Barnes did. But the difference is Coach K developed him, stuck with him, and featured him to both his benefit and the team's.

Barnes was the ACC rookie of the year and projected late lottery/first round pick after his freshman season before HE decided to return.

And you've also left out, or are just uninformed, about an important factor in his decision that year...the potential impact of a NBA owners lockout that was looming.

Ingram is a uniquely talented kid that was a lottery pick if he had decided to attend little sisters of the poor community college.

And thank God coach K "stuck with him, and featured him to both his benefit and the team's"...otherwise Duke might not have finished 4th in the ACC last season.

Steven43
09-29-2016, 09:07 AM
Barnes was the ACC rookie of the year and projected late lottery/first round pick after his freshman season before HE decided to return.

And you've also left out, or are just uninformed, about an important factor in his decision that year...the potential impact of a NBA owners lockout that was looming.

Ingram is a uniquely talented kid that was a lottery pick if he had decided to attend little sisters of the poor community college.

And thank God coach K "stuck with him, and featured him to both his benefit and the team's"...otherwise Duke might not have finished 4th in the ACC last season.
Not used to you being this condescending, Mr. Wheat. As an FYI, you may be on the edge of using up the entirety of the goodwill DBR posters have extended to you over the years. Tread lightly, son.

richardjackson199
09-29-2016, 09:20 AM
Barnes was the ACC rookie of the year and projected late lottery/first round pick after his freshman season before HE decided to return.

And you've also left out, or are just uninformed, about an important factor in his decision that year...the potential impact of a NBA owners lockout that was looming.

Here again, let's look at a Duke analog in that same high school class. Barnes was RSCI #1 and would have been taken in the lottery. His stock did not improve by staying another year at UNC. Kyrie Irving (RSCI #3) apparently wasn't worried about the NBA owners lockout because he decided to enter the draft and was the #1 overall pick.

El_Diablo
09-29-2016, 09:30 AM
McAdoo's decision to stay at UNC was also likely sweetened by the Mercedes he tweeted about and that got several tickets on UNC's campus over the next several months and was shown to have been rented by Fats Thomas (who also gave PJ Hairston at least two rental cars).

Wheat/"/"/"
09-29-2016, 09:31 AM
Not used to you being this condescending, Mr. Wheat. As an FYI, you may be on the edge of using up the entirety of the goodwill DBR posters have extended to you over the years. Tread lightly, son.

I ignore a lot of stuff. Sort of like water boarding here sometimes for me 🙂

But I don't particularly like to check the board in the am and be labeled "disingenuous" and "completely naive" from a poster who is obviously not very informed.

I tend to get caught up responding to the tone I'm spoken to, right or wrong.

Mess with the bull...so to speak.

But, that said, I get it, and I know nobody around here should take the bait, especially me.

Movin' on...

Ichabod Drain
09-29-2016, 09:41 AM
6690

Wheat/"/"/"
09-29-2016, 09:44 AM
McAdoo's decision to stay at UNC was also likely sweetened by the Mercedes he tweeted about and that got several tickets on UNC's campus over the next several months and was shown to have been rented by Fats Thomas (who also gave PJ Hairston at least two rental cars).

Do you really think a "friend" trying to be cool and loaning him a car would have had any impact on his multi million dollar decision?

Wheat/"/"/"
09-29-2016, 09:51 AM
Here again, let's look at a Duke analog in that same high school class. Barnes was RSCI #1 and would have been taken in the lottery. His stock did not improve by staying another year at UNC. Kyrie Irving (RSCI #3) apparently wasn't worried about the NBA owners lockout because he decided to enter the draft and was the #1 overall pick.

I think Barnes was drafted about where he would have gone as a freshman, but either way, it was his call and in hindsight it doesn't matter, he's making lots of money in the NBA, actually more than Kyrie I think?

Wheat/"/"/"
09-29-2016, 09:53 AM
Can we? Would love to see this thread return to news about the 2017 recruiting class.


I'm good with that.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
09-29-2016, 10:08 AM
I think Barnes was drafted about where he would have gone as a freshman, but either way, it was his call and in hindsight it doesn't matter, he's making lots of money in the NBA, actually more than Kyrie I think?

Actually, the next several years it is pretty danged close, but technically you are correct.

Let's not run Wheat out. The offseasons would feel even longer if all we had was our echo chamber of ideas.

And without Wheat, I wouldn't know if Roy was a terrible coach because he can't recruit top notch talent, or because he can't win championships with the top notch talent (that he can't get).

Steven43
09-29-2016, 10:39 AM
Actually, the next several years it is pretty danged close, but technically you are correct.

Let's not run Wheat out. The offseasons would feel even longer if all we had was our echo chamber of ideas.

And without Wheat, I wouldn't know if Roy was a terrible coach because he can't recruit top notch talent, or because he can't win championships with the top notch talent (that he can't get).

Good points, all. I like having Wheat around. Sometimes I even agree with a little bit of what he has to say. Regardless, it's entertaining.

SilkyJ
09-29-2016, 08:40 PM
Have you guys not heard the expression "don't feed the troll"? Leave him alone and he wont completely derail the thread for 5 pages. He's an unapologetic UNC homer, and what do we do with those folks? Ignore them.

Furniture
09-29-2016, 11:24 PM
Have you guys not heard the expression "don't feed the troll"? Leave him alone and he wont completely derail the thread for 5 pages. He's an unapologetic UNC homer, and what do we do with those folks? Ignore them.

All this discussion and baiting of Wheat is so infantile. It's insane. You all sound like middle school kids who say my Dad is bigger than your Dad!
If this DBR board is so great, so much better than any other Internet forum why can't there just be a decent conversation? Why call him a troll?

Duke79UNLV77
09-30-2016, 09:26 AM
All this discussion and baiting of Wheat is so infantile. It's insane. You all sound like middle school kids who say my Dad is bigger than your Dad!
If this DBR board is so great, so much better than any other Internet forum why can't there just be a decent conversation? Why call him a troll?

Some of us sincerely think he is a troll, but I'm not suggesting banning him. I know there is the ignore function, but the thread itself is hijacked. Perhaps, there could be a separate thread for Wheat debates. That could come in handy, for example, after any Duke loss, Duke utter failure to develop the big man skills of the National Big Man of the Year award winner, or isolated academic irregularities that had absolutely nothing to do with revenue sports. The previous 2-3 pages of this thread could be relocated, and one could then click on the thread to read about 2017 Duke Basketball Recruiting.

Steven43
09-30-2016, 09:35 AM
All this discussion and baiting of Wheat is so infantile. It's insane. You all sound like middle school kids who say my Dad is bigger than your Dad!
If this DBR board is so great, so much better than any other Internet forum why can't there just be a decent conversation? Why call him a troll?

Perhaps your message should have been sent privately to the poster you wished to address. And to use terms like "infantile" and "insane" seems a bit much. Also, I'm not sure who goes around claiming DBR is better than any other message board, though it might well be.

Relax, Furn, we're just having fun with ol' Wheat. He can take it. And yes, this message probably should have been sent privately as well. I apologize to the board for thread derailment.

Now I'm ready for some good recruiting news. Anybody out there have some?

elvis14
09-30-2016, 11:23 AM
Also, I'm not sure who goes around claiming DBR is better than any other message board, though it might well be.

That would be me. The signal to noise ratio here and expectations of civil discussion go a long ways. I'm sure there are other well moderated boards as well but I like this one. If you really want a contrast visit IC or even some unmoderated Duke boards.