Blue Ribbon Preseason Top 25

[Olympic Fan]

I was asked to spread the word about this ...

Note the four ACC teams in the top 10 and six in the top 25.

Personally, I think Virginia may be a little high (based on the heavy turnover off a team that win 89 games the last three years), but just a little. N.C. State's ranking is obviously based on the assumption that Yurtseven will be eligible for all or at least most of the season.

BLUE RIBBON COLLEGE BASKETBALL YEARBOOK

PRESEASON TOP 25

1. Duke
2. Oregon
3. Kansas
4. Kentucky
5. Villanova
6. Wisconsin
7. North Carolina
8. Louisville
9. Purdue
10. Virginia
11. Michigan State
12. Xavier
13. Arizona
14. Gonzaga
15. Connecticut
16. Butler
17. Saint Mary’s
18. Indiana
19. Creighton
20. Florida State
21. West Virginia
22. UCLA
23. NC State
24. Maryland
25. Rhode Island

[Troublemaker]

Thanks, Oly. Always good to see what Blue Ribbon thinks.

FSU has a lot to prove. They will be in many people's preseason top 25 despite having missed the tournament the past four seasons. They certainly have top-25 talent -- top-15 even -- and Leonard Hamilton will have to live up to this ranking to feel some job security. So. Dwayne Bacon and Fr. Jonathan Isaac will probably be one of the best forward combinations in the country despite their youth, and maybe Jr. Xavier Rathan-Mayes will finally provide consistent, efficient lead guard play in his third season.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Love that Oregon is #2. I think they too are the second best team in the country as they return every key player from an Elite Eight team. I do not want to face Oregon until the FF.

[JasonEvans]

I'm a bit surprised to see Oregon at #2. That's a bit higher than most other preseason polls that seem to have them closer to #5 or so. But, it is not an outrageous ranking, especially if you think Dylan Ennis will bounce back from injury and have a strong redshirt season season. Personally, I'd probably put Kansas or Villanova in the #2 spot.

I hate to be "that guy" who reflexively bags on UNC, but the Heels lost their top 2 players and didn't really recruit anyone nearly capable of replacing those guys. I'm not saying the Heels will be bad, but I think top 10 may be a bit lofty for them. Also, I'm not sure how many of you listened to the DBR podcast last week (https://soundcloud.com/dbrpodcast/dbr-podcast-56-football-a-new-hoops-schedule-and-the-ncaa-gets-outta-north-carolina) when I spoke about Carolina's closing stretch of the schedule, but I think the Heels have an absurdly difficult 7 game gauntlet at the end of the year that could shatter their confidence and really impact their ACC/NCAA seeding. Look at this stretch:

@Duke, @NC St, Virginia, Louisville, @Pitt, @Virginia, Duke

They could play well and go 2-5 in that stretch. I'm serious.


... maybe Jr. Xavier Rathan-Mayes will finally provide consistent, efficient lead guard play in his third season.

XRM is only a junior?!?! I swear, if you had bet me that he was a 5th year senior I would have bought it. Feels like that dude has been there forever.

-Jason "NC St is ranked based on 2 freshmen...I dunno about the wisdom in that. Might want to wait to see them play a few games first" Evans

[ChillinDuke]

I'm a bit surprised to see Oregon at #2. That's a bit higher than most other preseason polls that seem to have them closer to #5 or so. But, it is not an outrageous ranking, especially if you think Dylan Ennis will bounce back from injury and have a strong redshirt season season. Personally, I'd probably put Kansas or Villanova in the #2 spot.

I hate to be "that guy" who reflexively bags on UNC, but the Heels lost their top 2 players and didn't really recruit anyone nearly capable of replacing those guys. I'm not saying the Heels will be bad, but I think top 10 may be a bit lofty for them. Also, I'm not sure how many of you listened to the DBR podcast last week (https://soundcloud.com/dbrpodcast/dbr-podcast-56-football-a-new-hoops-schedule-and-the-ncaa-gets-outta-north-carolina) when I spoke about Carolina's closing stretch of the schedule, but I think the Heels have an absurdly difficult 7 game gauntlet at the end of the year that could shatter their confidence and really impact their ACC/NCAA seeding. Look at this stretch:

@Duke, @NC St, Virginia, Louisville, @Pitt, @Virginia, Duke

They could play well and go 2-5 in that stretch. I'm serious.



XRM is only a junior?!?! I swear, if you had bet me that he was a 5th year senior I would have bought it. Feels like that dude has been there forever.

-Jason "NC St is ranked based on 2 freshmen...I dunno about the wisdom in that. Might want to wait to see them play a few games first" Evans

I generally agree with everything here.

But for the record, I heavily oversold UNC entering last season. While I expect to sell again entering this season, I'm a bit more aware of the general season-over-season improvement of returning players.

- Chillin

[luburch]

Love that Oregon is #2. I think they too are the second best team in the country as they return every key player from an Elite Eight team. I do not want to face Oregon until the FF.

I want to believe in Oregon, they certainly have the pieces to make another run this year, but for some reason I just can't buy in.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I want to believe in Oregon, they certainly have the pieces to make another run this year, but for some reason I just can't buy in.

I see then as the new Vilanova - returning players, good coach, previous 1 seed the year before, mediocre conference.

Oregon beat the snot out of a good, well-coached Duke team. I really like what they have going. Put me down in the Oregon camp. I think they are a clear top 5er and second tier team (Duke is the only first tier team). I put them in the same camp as Nova and Kansas. I think any of these three teams can be #2, but I like Oregon based on their returning players.

[Ichabod Drain]

Love that Oregon is #2. I think they too are the second best team in the country as they return every key player from an Elite Eight team. I do not want to face Oregon until the FF.

Didn't they lose Cook?

[flyingdutchdevil]

Didn't they lose Cook?

Yup. My bad. But they return Brooks, Dorsey, and Boucher. However, they added Dylan Ennis who missed all of last year due to injury.

I like these Ducks.

[Troublemaker]

Yup. My bad. But they return Brooks, Dorsey, and Boucher. However, they added Dylan Ennis who missed all of last year due to injury.

I like these Ducks.

Yeah, and Altman has said that Ennis was their best player before he got injured. We'll see about that, but it's reasonable to assume he'll at least be a good player for them. I think top 5 is fair. They were Kenpom #12 and Elite 8 last year and return almost everyone.

[Olympic Fan]

XRM is only a junior?!?! I swear, if you had bet me that he was a 5th year senior I would have bought it. Feels like that dude has been there forever.



Well, Rathan-Mayes IS a fourth-year junior.

He was in school in 2013-14, but academically ineligible. He was a prep teammate of Andrew Wiggins and the same class as Jabari Parker.

I thought he was the best non-Duke ACC freshman in 2014-5. Remember the 30 points in five minutes against Miami? He had three 30-plus point ACC games that year. I thought last year was a disappointment ... he didn't make the transition to point guard very well and he had trouble asserting himself with Beasley and Bacon on board.

I understand the skepticism about NC State -- Gottfried has a lot of new pieces to fit together. Not only the two freshmen stars, but two transfers (although both practiced with the team last year).

But don't underestimate Smith and Yurtseven. NBA Draft.net currently has Smith as its projected No. 1 pick. Yurtseven is universally projected as a first-round pick in '17. If Kentucky and Duke can be top five with a freshman core, why can't state be No. 23? I think the big issue is Yurtseven's eligibility, not how good he is.

[gurufrisbee]

Virginia is the 2nd best in the conference. The comments about NC not having nearly replaced Johnson or Paige is spot on. But L'ville is even worse - they weren't nearly as good NC, lost a lot, and still didn't replace it.

I like FSU there at the bottom of the top 25. NC St - not so much. I think V Tech beats the Wolfpack this year.

All I really care is that they got #1 correct.

And Oregon is legit FF material, but Gonzaga and St. Mary's will both be really good this year and those games are our must watch games for us left coasters.

[Olympic Fan]

Virginia is the 2nd best in the conference. The comments about NC not having nearly replaced Johnson or Paige is spot on. But L'ville is even worse - they weren't nearly as good NC, lost a lot, and still didn't replace it.


We'll just have to disagree about Louisville -- I think they are positioned to be the strongest challenger to Duke in the ACC.

They were basically a freshman/sophomore team last year and their best freshman (Deng Adel) was hobbled all year. I know they lost Onuaku, but they get Mathiang back -- and in 2015 when they shared a spot, they were almost the same player. They lost Lee which hurts, but replaced Lewis with the Penn transfer (Lewis, a very similar player). Plus, they add a pretty talented frosh in King. But the real reason they get better is all the young guys who get better in the second year (Mitchell, Spalding and especially Adel) or in their third year (Snider, Johnson and Mahmoud).

They are very deep and very talented.

I don't get the love for Virginia, vs. UNC. Virginia lost four seniors who were at the core of their recent success, including their two best players (Brogdon and Gill). They have some nice support guys who should be able to step into bigger roles, plus a couple of promising freshmen. But a lot depends on Austin Nichols, a talented guy who was soft as tissue paper at Memphis.

UNC also lost its two best players, but they have younger players already stepping up -- more than Virginia. late in the season, Joel Berry did a better job than Perrantes, while Hicks is a better player than anybody Virginia has up front. Berry, Jackson, Hicks are a nice core. Pinson is a very good player as long as you don't ask him to shoot. Remember, UNC has the highest rated prospect left from the class of 2013 (Hicks) and the TWO highest rated prospects left from the Class of 2014 (Jackson and Pinson).

I think the VPI vs. NC State debate is interesting -- I'm more certain that VPI will be good, but I think NC State has a higher ceiling.

[ipatent]

Virginia's ranking is based on Bennett's reputation, which is well-earned. They won't drop much lower than that.

There was a comment about Leonard Hamilton's job security. FSU could do a lot worse. See Sendek, Herb.

Duke is loaded this year. My only concerns are defense and point guard play on both sides of the ball. Frank Jacksons's play is going to be the difference between a very good team and a great team.

[sagegrouse]

Duke is loaded this year. My only concerns are defense and point guard play on both sides of the ball. Frank Jacksons's play is going to be the difference between a very good team and a great team.Mebbe so, mebbe not. I took a flyer in predicting Luke Kennard would be 2nd team All-ACC. That, plus expected great performances from Grayson, Jayson and Harry, would make this Duke team really special.

[ipatent]

Mebbe so, mebbe not. I took a flyer in predicting Luke Kennard would be 2nd team All-ACC. That, plus expected great performances from Grayson, Jayson and Harry, would make this Duke team really special.

I'm not sure Luke has the handle to play lead guard effectively on offense and the foot quickness to contain high level opposing point guards. Hope I'm wrong about that. I think next year is going to be his breakout year offensively because there are only so many shot attempts to spread around, and Grayson is going to get most of them at off guard.

[sagegrouse]

Mebbe so, mebbe not. I took a flyer in predicting Luke Kennard would be 2nd team All-ACC. That, plus expected great performances from Grayson, Jayson and Harry, would make this Duke team really special.


I'm not sure Luke has the handle to play lead guard effectively on offense and the foot quickness to contain high level opposing point guards. Hope I'm wrong about that. I think next year is going to be his breakout year offensively because there are only so many shot attempts to spread around, and Grayson is going to get most of them at off guard.

I'm not fitting clothes on these guys. If Luke has a breakout year, we don't need miracles from Frank Jackson -- he can be a solid supporting performer.

[gurufrisbee]

We'll just have to disagree about Louisville -- I think they are positioned to be the strongest challenger to Duke in the ACC.

They were basically a freshman/sophomore team last year and their best freshman (Deng Adel) was hobbled all year. I know they lost Onuaku, but they get Mathiang back -- and in 2015 when they shared a spot, they were almost the same player. They lost Lee which hurts, but replaced Lewis with the Penn transfer (Lewis, a very similar player). Plus, they add a pretty talented frosh in King. But the real reason they get better is all the young guys who get better in the second year (Mitchell, Spalding and especially Adel) or in their third year (Snider, Johnson and Mahmoud).

They are very deep and very talented.

I don't get the love for Virginia, vs. UNC. Virginia lost four seniors who were at the core of their recent success, including their two best players (Brogdon and Gill). They have some nice support guys who should be able to step into bigger roles, plus a couple of promising freshmen. But a lot depends on Austin Nichols, a talented guy who was soft as tissue paper at Memphis.

UNC also lost its two best players, but they have younger players already stepping up -- more than Virginia. late in the season, Joel Berry did a better job than Perrantes, while Hicks is a better player than anybody Virginia has up front. Berry, Jackson, Hicks are a nice core. Pinson is a very good player as long as you don't ask him to shoot. Remember, UNC has the highest rated prospect left from the class of 2013 (Hicks) and the TWO highest rated prospects left from the Class of 2014 (Jackson and Pinson).

I think the VPI vs. NC State debate is interesting -- I'm more certain that VPI will be good, but I think NC State has a higher ceiling.

It is fun how we can see the same teams in very different ways.

I look at Louisville and see a team that was thinner than even Duke was last year, having only four players who even scored more than 8 points a game - and the three best of them are gone. Mathiang didn't show me anything close to Onuaku. Mathiang had one good game all year and still looks like this injury is going to be affecting him. Hicks isn't anywhere close as good as Lewis or Lee was. There was oodles of opportunities for those young guys to step up last season - and they didn't.

This is where Virginia is very different. Guys like Hall, Shayok, Wilkins, and Thompson all actually looked like guys ready to step up and do more, but they were just being held back by a lack of opportunity because of the better guys ahead of them at UVA. And Nichols is a transfer who actually has produced at a high level program - vastly different than Hicks.

But who knows? All I know is I can't wait for Duke to beat them both (and hopefully they'll both beat the Terd Heels).

[Olympic Fan]

It is fun how we can see the same teams in very different ways.

I look at Louisville and see a team that was thinner than even Duke was last year, having only four players who even scored more than 8 points a game - and the three best of them are gone. Mathiang didn't show me anything close to Onuaku. Mathiang had one good game all year and still looks like this injury is going to be affecting him. Hicks isn't anywhere close as good as Lewis or Lee was. There was oodles of opportunities for those young guys to step up last season - and they didn't.

This is where Virginia is very different. Guys like Hall, Shayok, Wilkins, and Thompson all actually looked like guys ready to step up and do more, but they were just being held back by a lack of opportunity because of the better guys ahead of them at UVA. And Nichols is a transfer who actually has produced at a high level program - vastly different than Hicks.

But who knows? All I know is I can't wait for Duke to beat them both (and hopefully they'll both beat the Terd Heels).

You're right, it's funny how we see things differently. Louisville spread out the scoring a lot, but Pitino played 10 players at least 12.5 minutes a game last year (Adel, who was hobbled was the low man on that list). Seven of those 10 are back ... plus they add King, Hicks and McMahon. Injuries played a significant role last year -- Adel, Mathiang and Mahmoud all missed significant time. Mathiang only played in 10 games -- in the one ranked team that played in that time (Michigan State) -- he was better than Onuaku. Vs. the second-best team they played in that time (St. Louis), he was MUCH better than Onuaku.

But my point was about 2014-15, when both were healthy. They essentially shared the center spot (Mathiang played 18.8 mpg; Onuaku played 17.9 mpg) with very similar stats -- rebounding scoring and blocked shots. I agree that Onuaku blossomed in Mathiang's absence -- the was a better player in the second half of last season than Mathiang was ... but I don't see why Mathiang can't blossom too.

As to the young players stepping up (or not stepping up) last season, again I think they DID step up. Louisville finished ahead of Duke in the ACC with those young guys getting a lot of minutes. But Pitino's best teams often spread the offense around -- that's what last year's team did. And a coach I respect told me that Hicks is a very good replacement for Lewis ... Damion Lee was better than anybody they are adding (except possibly a healthy Adel).

I don't see how you can be so impressed with Hall and Wilkins and Thompson (all very average players IMO; I do think Shayok has potential) and not impressed by Mitchell (especially after what he did to Duke in Durham), Spalding, Johnson and Adel.

But, I guess that's why we play the season.

BTW: It's possible that Louisville may face more sanctions from the NCAA -- I think it likely that Pitino starts the season with the same nine-game suspension that Larry Brown and Jim Boeheim got. They may also get another year of a postseason ban (although I think that less likely).

[Newton_14]

I'm not fitting clothes on these guys. If Luke has a breakout year, we don't need miracles from Frank Jackson -- he can be a solid supporting performer.

I'm with Sage on this one. I don't think Jackson has to be great nor good for this Duke team to roll. If he is great or good, it is just gravy on top of the already delicious taters.

Grayson and Matt will manage the Lead Guard spot just fine ala Jon Scheyer in 2010.

Kennard should be much improved as well, as Sage notes.

This team has a great chance to be scary good, with or without Jackson, and please note I like Jackson a lot and think he is going to be a fine player sooner than later. I hope the kid can shine on defense. He is going to need to in order to see the floor. Too many good established players in front of him in Grayson, Matt, and Kennard, along with fellow frosh Tatum who will play most of his minutes on the wing..

Can't wait for it all to start! Gonna be fun!

[JasonEvans]

I'm not sure Luke has the handle to play lead guard effectively on offense and the foot quickness to contain high level opposing point guards. Hope I'm wrong about that. I think next year is going to be his breakout year offensively because there are only so many shot attempts to spread around, and Grayson is going to get most of them at off guard.

Many people think Grayson Allen came back to Duke specifically so he could work on his PG skills, with the notion that the NBA will value him considerably more if he can play PG. So, I'll go ahead and say that -- caveat that Duke does not have positions -- I think Grayson will play what amounts to PG more than anyone else this coming season. Put another way, I think there will be reasonable minutes for Luke on the wing.

-Jason "all conversations turn into a debate about positions/starters/minutes pretty quickly, don't they?" Evans

[juise]

Many people think Grayson Allen came back to Duke specifically so he could work on his PG skills, with the notion that the NBA will value him considerably more if he can play PG. So, I'll go ahead and say that -- caveat that Duke does not have positions -- I think Grayson will play what amounts to PG more than anyone else this coming season. Put another way, I think there will be reasonable minutes for Luke on the wing.

-Jason "all conversations turn into a debate about positions/starters/minutes pretty quickly, don't they?" Evans

If only Duke had a coach who could help him convert from a wing to a lead guard... a shooter who can balance distribution and scoring. If only. ;)

[ipatent]

I'm sure Grayson and Luke both worked on their handle and lateral movement over the summer. The Kentucky game last year is a good example of what I'm concerned about as far as a blueprint for beating next years team is concerned. With that said, the margin for error is going to be lot greater because of the talent up front, Tatum's ability to play point forward a la Grant Hill, Grayson and Luke's improvement and whatever Jackson can bring.

The defense is bound to be a work in progress as it was even for the '15 team with so many new players to fit in. If Jackson can be a ball-hawking PG on defense when it is needed, it will really help.

[OldPhiKap]

The last few seasons, UVa has exceeded the expectations of "the experts" because they didn't believe Bennett really built a strong program. Looks like Blue Ribbon is not making that mistake again, although may have picked the wrong year to do it. Bennett should be a strong ACC COY candidate if he can really finish that high this season. I would expect them to be more in the second ten (which is still very good).

Carolina is probably about right. Insert vain hope for postseason ban by NCAA here. Very good, but perhaps not spectacular, talent. That includes the coach, who is behind K, Rick, Tony, and Jimmy B.

Louisville around tail end of top 25 sounds right. Lots of athletes, top shelf coach.

FSU has size and talent, question is consistency against the non-marquee teams.

State would be nice, but I'll reserve judgment until conference play starts.

Duke -- will be a really fun team to watch. If we stay healthy and everything meshes this could be an epic team.

[BD80]

... I hate to be "that guy" who reflexively bags on UNC, but the Heels lost their top 2 players and didn't really recruit anyone nearly capable of replacing those guys. I'm not saying the Heels will be bad, but I think top 10 may be a bit lofty for them. ...

Coaching ...

Don't forget to tip your waitress

[Indoor66]

Coaching ...

Don't forget to tip your waitress

NEVER! I'm from unCheat!

[OldPhiKap]

Q: How do freshman at UNC calculate a 15% tip?

A: They don't; that's reserved for an upper-level math course.

[flyingdutchdevil]

The last few seasons, UVa has exceeded the expectations of "the experts" because they didn't believe Bennett really built a strong program. Looks like Blue Ribbon is not making that mistake again, although may have picked the wrong year to do it. Bennett should be a strong ACC COY candidate if he can really finish that high this season. I would expect them to be more in the second ten (which is still very good).

Carolina is probably about right. Insert vain hope for postseason ban by NCAA here. Very good, but perhaps not spectacular, talent. That includes the coach, who is behind K, Rick, Tony, and Jimmy B.

Louisville around tail end of top 25 sounds right. Lots of athletes, top shelf coach.

FSU has size and talent, question is consistency against the non-marquee teams.

State would be nice, but I'll reserve judgment until conference play starts.

Duke -- will be a really fun team to watch. If we stay healthy and everything meshes this could be an epic team.

This sums up exactly what I think as well. I don't have an issue with any of the ACC rankings. UNC, Louisville, UVa, and, of course, Duke, should be the top 4 teams in the ACC. Anything but would be a mild upset (and Duke not coming in first would be a huge upset, in my opinion).

The only disagreement I have is Duke. It will be a fun team to watch, but it should also be an absolute powerhouse. There is a strong chance that Duke has 4 of the top players on the court at all times during ACC play. Duke '15 was an amazing team, but that bench was okay, not epic. With 2 of Jones/Jackson/Kennard, Bolden, and Jeter on the bench, it's truly crazy.

[OldPhiKap]

Duke. It will be a fun team to watch, but it should also be an absolute powerhouse. There is a strong chance that Duke has 4 of the top players on the court at all times during ACC play. Duke '15 was an amazing team, but that bench was okay, not epic. With 2 of Jones/Jackson/Kennard, Bolden, and Jeter on the bench, it's truly crazy.

I imagine coaching a dozen NBA players in the Olympics is good practice. This Duke squad may be the closest that K has had at Duke to that same sort of set-up. An embarrassment of riches, if we stay healthy.

[jimsumner]

I was glancing at Lindy's magazine the other day at the grocery store.

Didn't buy it, so this is from memory.

They had Oregon at one, Kansas at two and Duke at three.

Each of the top 25 had a thumbnail sketch. The Duke sketch was downright weird. They seemed to be arguing with themselves, acknowledging that Duke had crazy talent, the best coach in the business and everyone else was picking Duke number one. But hey, the most talented team doesn't always win and anyway, we're picking them to make the final weekend and anything can happen in the final weekend, so don't get mad at us.

My favorite part was the top 25 players by position. They had Chase Jeter as the number 24 center but didn't rank Amile Jefferson.

So, I would stick with Athlon's or if you wish to splurge for the deluxe, go with Blue Ribbon.

[Indoor66]

They all go through their mental masturbation and then throw the dice.😁😈😎

[PackMan97]

-Jason "NC St is ranked based on 2 freshmen...I dunno about the wisdom in that. Might want to wait to see them play a few games first" Evans

To be honest, it's really just one freshman.

http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/nc-state/article103191982.html

That said we also have Darius Hicks (3*), Markell Johnson (4*) and Ted Kapita (4*) coming in as freshmen as well as Smith and Yurtseven. Toss in solid transfers that have yet to play for State in Torin Dorin and Terry Henderson and you've got a very interesting if mostly unknown and unproven team.

I'm definitely withholding my judgement until I see us play, but I'm far more optimistic to start the season than I was at the end of last season.

[jimsumner]

To be honest, it's really just one freshman.

http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/nc-state/article103191982.html

That said we also have Darius Hicks (3*), Markell Johnson (4*) and Ted Kapita (4*) coming in as freshmen as well as Smith and Yurtseven. Toss in solid transfers that have yet to play for State in Torin Dorin and Terry Henderson and you've got a very interesting if mostly unknown and unproven team.

I'm definitely withholding my judgement until I see us play, but I'm far more optimistic to start the season than I was at the end of last season.

A good friend is semi-retired from NC State and still has excellent contacts there. He told me recently that Terry Henderson was the best player on State's team before he hurt his foot.

I replied with some incredulity "better than Cat Barber?"

"Yes, better than Cat Barber."

Now, that was before his injury. But is not a person inclined towards hyperbole.

For what it's worth.

[Olympic Fan]

To be honest, it's really just one freshman.

http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/nc-state/article103191982.html

That said we also have Darius Hicks (3*), Markell Johnson (4*) and Ted Kapita (4*) coming in as freshmen as well as Smith and Yurtseven. Toss in solid transfers that have yet to play for State in Torin Dorin and Terry Henderson and you've got a very interesting if mostly unknown and unproven team.

I'm definitely withholding my judgement until I see us play, but I'm far more optimistic to start the season than I was at the end of last season.

I don't understand your reasoning. One freshmen? Which one are you counting, Smith or Yurtseven?

Why doesn't Yurtseven count -- he's a 17 year old playing his first year of college basketball. He's in the same situation as Duke's Jack White (who is actually older than Yurtseven).

Yurtseven is a major talent -- projected as a first round draft pick in most 2017 mock drafts. As I noted earlier, one major mock draft has Dennis Smith as the No. 1 pick.

I don't see why the skepticism over two freshmen in the rotation. Are people skeptical of Duke because of the four freshmen likely to be in the rotation? How about Kentucky, which will also have four freshmen in the rotation. Believe me, Smith and Yurtseven are very much in a class with Giles, Tatum, Bolden, Jackson, Monk, Fox and Bam. Duke and Kentucky are generally rated as top five picks -- is it crazy to pick NC State No. 23?

I know they have a lot of new pieces, but consider this. Smith, who couldn't play last year (like Giles) enrolled early at State. By late February, he, Henderson and Dorin were working out against the regular team in practice. One ESPN commentator watched a practice and said the three best players in the program weren't eligible at the time. It's an interesting mix -- two GREAT freshmen -- three rotation players returning (and of those three ... Abu is pretty darn good) and two transfers that both practiced with the team last year.

Gottfried reached the Sweet 16 in two of his first four seasons (every odd year) with lesser talent. I think No. 23 preseason is a fair compromise for a team that does have to come together -- but a team with a MUCH higher ceiling.

And I repeat my basic message -- many of you are seriously underestimating the talent at Louisville.

[OldPhiKap]

A good friend is semi-retired from NC State and still has excellent contacts there. He told me recently that Terry Henderson was the best player on State's team before he hurt his foot.

I replied with some incredulity "better than Cat Barber?"

"Yes, better than Cat Barber."

Now, that was before his injury. But is not a person inclined towards hyperbole.

For what it's worth.

Impressive. I wish Cat had come back this year but cannot blame him for entering the draft. Hope he makes it in Philly.

[Wahoo2000]

I was asked to spread the word about this ...

Note the four ACC teams in the top 10 and six in the top 25.

Personally, I think Virginia may be a little high (based on the heavy turnover off a team that win 89 games the last three years), but only a VERY little. N.C. State's ranking is obviously based on the assumption that Yurtseven will be eligible for all or at least most of the season.



It's going to be an interesting year for my Cavs. Most UVA fans would jump all over you for saying we won't be a top 10 team. The standard line so far goes something like this:
First, people said after we lost Harris and Mitchell..... we'd take a step back
Next, people said after losing Atkins and Anderson..... we'd take a step back
Now, people say after losing Brogdon and Gill...... we'll take a step back (Sure, we lost Tobey and Nolte, but Nolte barely played at all and Tobey was nothing more than a basic role player outside the final regular season game and a nice run in the postseason).

There's one important distinction from the last 2 years though - we don't return Malcolm Brogdon. This will be the first season since we kind of "arrived" that we don't return a really top-level, preseason all-league type of guy (Though Perrantes isn't far off - if the guy develops ANY kid of scoring threat inside the arc, he could be a 1st/2nd teamer easily. He's the best 3pt shooter statistically in the conference, and is a top-flight ballhandler, passer, and decision maker).

To me, the season for us hinges on a few things:
1. How good will Nichols be? Most publications that have us ranked inside the top 10 expect him to be an all-conference player (maybe second team), and our best player by a significant margin. Remember, this is a guy who as a true soph was 1st team all-AAC and was a nationally elite shot blocker while battling injuries (and the player development ability of Josh Pastner.... yikes!). He's also had an entire year while redshirting to strengthen, learn our systems, battle against Gill every day in practice, and is now receiving development from a far superior staff. He's also by a VERY wide margin the highest rated recruit Bennett has ever had at Virginia - a near consensus top 20/5 star. These are all great signs, but I'll also include that even redshirted guys have some issues getting the pack line rotations down cold, and I expect there to be some growing pains with Nichols (and others) in regards to building chemistry throughout the noncon, and even into the 1st half of the league schedule. Still, I honestly believe that by March, he'll be our top player, and it won't be all that close.

2. Will any player that has extended career minutes for us (min 1,000) make a big leap forward? Candidates are Perrantes, Shayok, Wilkins, Hall - in order of "most likely to step up" (in my opinion). Perrantes would need to make a leap with his scoring in the paint and on drives. Shayok looked primed for a breakout last year, but was limited with injuries and a knack to make boneheaded turnovers that Bennett loathes. Wilkins could develop into an Akil Mitchell/Amile Jefferson defensive-specialist/"do everything but score"/glue guy, and Hall seems to have great size/athleticism/work ethic (though admittedly seems to lack the feel for the game that most really good players have).

3. Will any of the less experienced players perform well above expectation? This pretty much comes down to Reuter, Thompson, and Jack Salt. Reuter is intriguing. He'll likely start the season as the 1st big off the bench, and has a GREAT feel for the game. He's very crafty while not supremely athletic, and will absolutely work his I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. off every single minute he's out there. If this guy was a couple notches more athletic, and an inch or two taller, he'd be Tyler Hansbrough. Thompson is maybe the best run and jump athlete on the team, and a plus steals guy. If his outside shot doesn't improve though, he's probably a situational player. If it DOES improve, he could/should crack the regular backcourt rotation. Salt is a big body we can use to squeeze some good defensive/fouling minutes out of when we play teams stocked with incredible size, but he is probably the the last scholarship player in the rotation and will most frequently be out there in the last minute of blowouts with the walkons.

4. Which of the freshmen are ready to contribute? The new guys - Guy, Diakite, Jerome, Huff, Hunter - are far and away the most talented 5 person class we've had since the early 90s (not coincidentally the last time we were tournament fixtures). Guy, Diakite (redshirted after enrolling early last year), and Jerome are all top 20-50 guys, Huff and Hunter more in the 50-100 range (though most inside the program see all 5 as on a similar level - Huff never playing AAU ball hurt his rankings immensely and Hunter had a broken leg that cost him a year of HS and AAU ball that similarly impacted his rank). Assuming these guys are all here at least 3 seasons, I'm pumped for our prospects in 18/19. For this year, I'd only be confident saying that Guy will be in the rotation. The kid is one of the top shooters in the class, and is waaaaay undervalued for his athleticism and ability to get to the rim. He has a similar mentality to Grayson Allen that I guarantee will make him a HATED player for us down the road. Huff could redshirt, but he's probably my second favorite player in the class by a narrow margin. He needs to add some bulk desperately but is a 4 with excellent ball skills, capable of playing/handling/shooting like a 3. I'd compare his style to Dunleavy Jr with a couple of caveats: plays with a natural grit that approaches "mean streak", and his pro future would be at the 4, not 3: he's 6'11ish and doesn't have lateral quickness to be a pro wing. Hunter might be the most physically ready to contribute. I'd liken his game to Blossomgame, though he's ahead of where Jaron was entering college (lot of work to do to get to his level now, of course). Diakite, despite the redshirt year, is still pretty raw. The athleticism is undeniable though - definitely an Akil Mitchell clone with a much better shot out to the 3pt line. Jerome, like Perrantes, will beat you with saavy rather than speed. He's a plus 3pt shooter/vision/ball handler ("pure" pg for those that are fond of that somewhat archaic term) with size. Don't think he'll play much this year with Perrantes logging likely 32+ mpg unless Hall, Thompson, and Guy all struggle unexpectedly to handle scant point minutes when Perrantes sits.

In summation, I think we do take a small step back this year. Rather than being right on the break between the 1/2 seed line like the last 3 years, i think we're solidly a notch below that. Looking at personnel only, I'd call us a fringe top 20 team. But based on expectations vs results the last 3 years, I'm going to include what I'm calling the "Bennett bump" and say I think he'll have us on the 3 seed line headed to the tournament, and only solidly behind Duke in the ACC. I expect there to be a major battle between Lou, UVA, UNC, and Syr for the other 3 double byes headed to the ACC tournament.

That's your primer on UVA headed to the preseason. (Sorry for the lengthy post)

[OldPhiKap]

It's going to be an interesting year for my Cavs. Most UVA fans would jump all over you for saying we won't be a top 10 team. The standard line so far goes something like this:
First, people said after we lost Harris and Mitchell.... we'd take a step back
Next, people said after losing Atkins and Anderson.... we'd take a step back
Now, people say after losing Brogdon and Gill... we'll take a step back (Sure, we lost Tobey and Nolte, but Nolte barely played at all and Tobey was nothing more than a basic role player outside the final regular season game and a nice run in the postseason).

There's one important distinction from the last 2 years though - we don't return Malcolm Brogdon. This will be the first season since we kind of "arrived" that we don't return a really top-level, preseason all-league type of guy (Though Perrantes isn't far off - if the guy develops ANY kid of scoring threat inside the arc, he could be a 1st/2nd teamer easily. He's the best 3pt shooter statistically in the conference, and is a top-flight ballhandler, passer, and decision maker).

To me, the season for us hinges on a few things:
1. How good will Nichols be? Most publications that have us ranked inside the top 10 expect him to be an all-conference player (maybe second team), and our best player by a significant margin. Remember, this is a guy who as a true soph was 1st team all-AAC and was a nationally elite shot blocker while battling injuries (and the player development ability of Josh Pastner... yikes!). He's also had an entire year while redshirting to strengthen, learn our systems, battle against Gill every day in practice, and is now receiving development from a far superior staff. He's also by a VERY wide margin the highest rated recruit Bennett has ever had at Virginia - a near consensus top 20/5 star. These are all great signs, but I'll also include that even redshirted guys have some issues getting the pack line rotations down cold, and I expect there to be some growing pains with Nichols (and others) in regards to building chemistry throughout the noncon, and even into the 1st half of the league schedule. Still, I honestly believe that by March, he'll be our top player, and it won't be all that close.

2. Will any player that has extended career minutes for us (min 1,000) make a big leap forward? Candidates are Perrantes, Shayok, Wilkins, Hall - in order of "most likely to step up" (in my opinion). Perrantes would need to make a leap with his scoring in the paint and on drives. Shayok looked primed for a breakout last year, but was limited with injuries and a knack to make boneheaded turnovers that Bennett loathes. Wilkins could develop into an Akil Mitchell/Amile Jefferson defensive-specialist/"do everything but score"/glue guy, and Hall seems to have great size/athleticism/work ethic (though admittedly seems to lack the feel for the game that most really good players have).

3. Will any of the less experienced players perform well above expectation? This pretty much comes down to Reuter, Thompson, and Jack Salt. Reuter is intriguing. He'll likely start the season as the 1st big off the bench, and has a GREAT feel for the game. He's very crafty while not supremely athletic, and will absolutely work his I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. off every single minute he's out there. If this guy was a couple notches more athletic, and an inch or two taller, he'd be Tyler Hansbrough. Thompson is maybe the best run and jump athlete on the team, and a plus steals guy. If his outside shot doesn't improve though, he's probably a situational player. If it DOES improve, he could/should crack the regular backcourt rotation. Salt is a big body we can use to squeeze some good defensive/fouling minutes out of when we play teams stocked with incredible size, but he is probably the the last scholarship player in the rotation and will most frequently be out there in the last minute of blowouts with the walkons.

4. Which of the freshmen are ready to contribute? The new guys - Guy, Diakite, Jerome, Huff, Hunter - are far and away the most talented 5 person class we've had since the early 90s (not coincidentally the last time we were tournament fixtures). Guy, Diakite (redshirted after enrolling early last year), and Jerome are all top 20-50 guys, Huff and Hunter more in the 50-100 range (though most inside the program see all 5 as on a similar level - Huff never playing AAU ball hurt his rankings immensely and Hunter had a broken leg that cost him a year of HS and AAU ball that similarly impacted his rank). Assuming these guys are all here at least 3 seasons, I'm pumped for our prospects in 18/19. For this year, I'd only be confident saying that Guy will be in the rotation. The kid is one of the top shooters in the class, and is waaaaay undervalued for his athleticism and ability to get to the rim. He has a similar mentality to Grayson Allen that I guarantee will make him a HATED player for us down the road. Huff could redshirt, but he's probably my second favorite player in the class by a narrow margin. He needs to add some bulk desperately but is a 4 with excellent ball skills, capable of playing/handling/shooting like a 3. I'd compare his style to Dunleavy Jr with a couple of caveats: plays with a natural grit that approaches "mean streak", and his pro future would be at the 4, not 3: he's 6'11ish and doesn't have lateral quickness to be a pro wing. Hunter might be the most physically ready to contribute. I'd liken his game to Blossomgame, though he's ahead of where Jaron was entering college (lot of work to do to get to his level now, of course). Diakite, despite the redshirt year, is still pretty raw. The athleticism is undeniable though - definitely an Akil Mitchell clone with a much better shot out to the 3pt line. Jerome, like Perrantes, will beat you with saavy rather than speed. He's a plus 3pt shooter/vision/ball handler ("pure" pg for those that are fond of that somewhat archaic term) with size. Don't think he'll play much this year with Perrantes logging likely 32+ mpg unless Hall, Thompson, and Guy all struggle unexpectedly to handle scant point minutes when Perrantes sits.

In summation, I think we do take a small step back this year. Rather than being right on the break between the 1/2 seed line like the last 3 years, i think we're solidly a notch below that. Looking at personnel only, I'd call us a fringe top 20 team. But based on expectations vs results the last 3 years, I'm going to include what I'm calling the "Bennett bump" and say I think he'll have us on the 3 seed line headed to the tournament, and only solidly behind Duke in the ACC. I expect there to be a major battle between Lou, UVA, UNC, and Syr for the other 3 double byes headed to the ACC tournament.

That's your primer on UVA headed to the preseason. (Sorry for the lengthy post)

Thanks as always Wahoo. Good luck this season!

[Wahoo2000]

This sums up exactly what I think as well. I don't have an issue with any of the ACC rankings. UNC, Louisville, UVa, and, of course, Duke, should be the top 4 teams in the ACC. Anything but would be a mild upset (and Duke not coming in first would be a huge upset, in my opinion).

The only disagreement I have is Duke. It will be a fun team to watch, but it should also be an absolute powerhouse. There is a strong chance that Duke has 4 of the top players on the court at all times during ACC play. Duke '15 was an amazing team, but that bench was okay, not epic. With 2 of Jones/Jackson/Kennard, Bolden, and Jeter on the bench, it's truly crazy.

I think Cuse fans would quibble with the thought that they won't be in the same tier with UNC, Louisville, & UVA. They have some really nice pieces and Boeheim should be there for the entire season this year. Duke is going to be an absolute beast and definitely in their own tier, but I wouldn't relish an ACC tourney semifinal vs Cuse in NY (assuming the goal is best chance to win, not most entertaining matchup). Esp if Cuse snags the 4 seed and is similarly playing only their 2nd game of the tourney.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

For some of you guys, please keep underestimating Roy Williams abilities as a coach. I find it entertaining how you keep it up year after year when he just keeps on winning and having good teams.

To think there is any other coach beyond Coach K that could lay claim to best coach in the ACC is pure denial.

UNC is going to be very strong this season. Roy has put together another top 10 team.

I expect to see Berry, Pinson, Jackson, Hicks, Meeks start.

First off the bench will be Britt and the freshman big Tony Bradley.

Joel Berry is the leader of this team and will have a good shot at all acc. He brings a football mentality and toughness to the team and big game experience.

Hicks is going to step in at Brice Johnson's role and there won't be a big drop off. The kid has all the physical tools to be a top PF in the game, he's just been a little slow to mentally grasp the nuance of the games at the college level. Some kids just take time to become "players"...no matter their skill set. He's gotten better every year, and I expect him to be much more comfortable now and be an alpha player this season.

Much the same can be said about Justin Jackson's game, he has top SF talent, except his biggest issue has been he needs to get stronger physically. He's no doubt been in the weight room this summer. NBA scouts told him he had to get more physical and stronger...and one thing you never hear about a Roy Williams team is they aren't in shape and in the weight room. Expect him to play much more aggressive this season.

Meeks is a rock in the middle. He's strong, a crafty rebounder and scorer, excellent outlet passer, and also has a seniors experience. He will demand a defense's attention inside. Indications preseason are he's finally in great shape after coming in heavy and then battling nagging injuries the past two seasons.

Pinson brings size, defensive quickness and energy to the 2g spot. He will score in transition, but won't be asked to carry much of the scoring load in the 1/2 court. He also has the intangibles that come with experience.

Britt is first off the bench and brings steady, solid high level play. He'd start on the majority of ACC teams. We'll see him take point some this year when Berry slides to the 2g spot and hunt his shot and he will run the team just fine against anybody. Once again, he also has that valuable commodity of experience.

I have not seen Tony Bradley play, so I can't comment on his skill level or how I think he can contribute.
However, some people who I respect that have seen him, say he's a big, strong fundamentally sound player in every aspect of the game and could possibly be a one and done type talent. We'll see. He'll get his chance in the rotation with Meeks and Hicks.

I think Kenny Williams, the Soph 2g, could also see some quality time. By late last season he was starting to look comfortable on the floor and has some under appreciated talent.

Luke Maye will again be a situational player that won't hurt the team when he's in.

Seventh Woods is highly touted, but I have not seen him play either. I'm always leery of freshman hype, so I'm looking forward to watching him.

This team once again has talented balance, and Jason is right about UNC having a tough schedule, especially late in the ACC season. They will need to stay composed if they have a couple of tough beats...with the experience this team has, I expect them to be fine and challenge for the ACC title and national championship this season.

...Thanks Wahoo2000 for the write up as well.

[OldPhiKap]

To think there is any other coach beyond Coach K that could lay claim to best coach in the ACC is pure denial.



Rick Pitino, Jim Boeheim, and Tony Bennett may disagree. Larranaga has won ACC COY two of the last four years, and in 2012-13 won several national COY awards.

There is a reason that Roy was voted "most overrated" by his peers. I'm not saying he's a bad coach. Contending that he is a clear second in the ACC is a dubious statement though.

As I said above, I think Carolina is going to be good. They do not have any superstars, but they have a lot of very good parts and a few players could really have breakthrough years. Berry, Meeks and Pinson certainly have that potential. Carolina is always dangerous, assuming no post-season ban.

Other than disagreeing about Roy, I think your write-up is pretty spot on.

[jv001]

For some of you guys, please keep underestimating Roy Williams abilities as a coach. I find it entertaining how you keep it up year after year when he just keeps on winning and having good teams.

To think there is any other coach beyond Coach K that could lay claim to best coach in the ACC is pure denial.

UNC is going to be very strong this season. Roy has put together another top 10 team.

I expect to see Berry, Pinson, Jackson, Hicks, Meeks start.

First off the bench will be Britt and the freshman big Tony Bradley.

Joel Berry is the leader of this team and will have a good shot at all acc. He brings a football mentality and toughness to the team and big game experience.
Hicks is going to step in at Brice Johnson's role and there won't be a big drop off. The kid has all the physical tools to be a top PF in the game, he's just been a little slow to mentally grasp the nuance of the games at the college level. Some kids just take time to become "players"...no matter their skill set. He's gotten better every year, and I expect him to be much more comfortable now and be an alpha player this season.

Much the same can be said about Justin Jackson's game, he has top SF talent, except his biggest issue has been he needs to get stronger physically. He's no doubt been in the weight room this summer. NBA scouts told him he had to get more physical and stronger...and one thing you never hear about a Roy Williams team is they aren't in shape and in the weight room. Expect him to play much more aggressive this season.

Meeks is a rock in the middle. He's strong, a crafty rebounder and scorer, excellent outlet passer, and also has a seniors experience. He will demand a defense's attention inside. Indications preseason are he's finally in great shape after coming in heavy and then battling nagging injuries the past two seasons.

Pinson brings size, defensive quickness and energy to the 2g spot. He will score in transition, but won't be asked to carry much of the scoring load in the 1/2 court. He also has the intangibles that come with experience.

Britt is first off the bench and brings steady, solid high level play. He'd start on the majority of ACC teams. We'll see him take point some this year when Berry slides to the 2g spot and hunt his shot and he will run the team just fine against anybody. Once again, he also has that valuable commodity of experience.

I have not seen Tony Bradley play, so I can't comment on his skill level or how I think he can contribute.
However, some people who I respect that have seen him, say he's a big, strong fundamentally sound player in every aspect of the game and could possibly be a one and done type talent. We'll see. He'll get his chance in the rotation with Meeks and Hicks.

I think Kenny Williams, the Soph 2g, could also see some quality time. By late last season he was starting to look comfortable on the floor and has some under appreciated talent.

Luke Maye will again be a situational player that won't hurt the team when he's in.

Seventh Woods is highly touted, but I have not seen him play either. I'm always leery of freshman hype, so I'm looking forward to watching him.

This team once again has talented balance, and Jason is right about UNC having a tough schedule, especially late in the ACC season. They will need to stay composed if they have a couple of tough beats...with the experience this team has, I expect them to be fine and challenge for the ACC title and national championship this season.

I agree with you on Berry. I believe he is the key to unc success this season. He could be ALL-ACC. However, I cannot or will not take the heels seriously until they pay their dues for years of academic fraud. Cheating to keep players eligible at all costs. How do we know any of these players are really eligible? If the program thinks they can get away with cheating, why not continue to cheat? Nothing against you Wheat and I admire how you've stuck with this program but I cannot hold them high regard. GoDuke!

[ipatent]

There's never been a conference with so many accomplished coaches at the same time. K, Roy, Boeheim and Pitino are Hall of Famers, Bennett is on track to join them in a decade, and Larranaga has a long pedigree of success as an assistant and head coach going back to the top 5 Virginia teams of the early 80s.

[OldPhiKap]

There's never been a conference with so many accomplished coaches at the same time. K, Roy, Boeheim and Pitino are Hall of Famers, Bennett is on track to join them in a decade, and Larranaga has a long pedigree of success as an assistant and head coach going back to the top 5 Virginia teams of the early 80s.

In the early 1980's, the ACC had Dean Smith, Jim Valvano, Lefty Dreisel, Bobby Cremmins, Terry Holland, and K -- that was six of the eight schools in the conference.

K was the one out of that group who hadn't done much yet.

[Troublemaker]

In summation, I think we do take a small step back this year. Rather than being right on the break between the 1/2 seed line like the last 3 years, i think we're solidly a notch below that. Looking at personnel only, I'd call us a fringe top 20 team. But based on expectations vs results the last 3 years, I'm going to include what I'm calling the "Bennett bump" and say I think he'll have us on the 3 seed line headed to the tournament, and only solidly behind Duke in the ACC. I expect there to be a major battle between Lou, UVA, UNC, and Syr for the other 3 double byes headed to the ACC tournament.

That's your primer on UVA headed to the preseason. (Sorry for the lengthy post)

Excellent post, Wahoo. Appreciate the insight. (That goes for Wheat and his UNC post as well).


It's going to be an interesting year for my Cavs. Most UVA fans would jump all over you for saying we won't be a top 10 team. The standard line so far goes something like this:
First, people said after we lost Harris and Mitchell... we'd take a step back
Next, people said after losing Atkins and Anderson... we'd take a step back
Now, people say after losing Brogdon and Gill... we'll take a step back (Sure, we lost Tobey and Nolte, but Nolte barely played at all and Tobey was nothing more than a basic role player outside the final regular season game and a nice run in the postseason).

I would say by last season ('15-'16), conventional wisdom had gained proper respect for the Cavs already. The ACC media voted you guys preseason #2 behind UNC (with 18 votes for 1st place), and that was pretty darn accurate. But UVA was definitely underrated heading into the '14-'15 season, though, because everyone expected the Cavs to fall back to Earth after the surprising '13-'14 campaign. Instead, you guys were dominant until Justin Anderson got hurt.



There's one important distinction from the last 2 years though - we don't return Malcolm Brogdon. This will be the first season since we kind of "arrived" that we don't return a really top-level, preseason all-league type of guy (Though Perrantes isn't far off - if the guy develops ANY kid of scoring threat inside the arc, he could be a 1st/2nd teamer easily. He's the best 3pt shooter statistically in the conference, and is a top-flight ballhandler, passer, and decision maker).

To me, the season for us hinges on a few things:
1. How good will Nichols be? Most publications that have us ranked inside the top 10 expect him to be an all-conference player (maybe second team), and our best player by a significant margin. Remember, this is a guy who as a true soph was 1st team all-AAC and was a nationally elite shot blocker while battling injuries (and the player development ability of Josh Pastner... yikes!). He's also had an entire year while redshirting to strengthen, learn our systems, battle against Gill every day in practice, and is now receiving development from a far superior staff. He's also by a VERY wide margin the highest rated recruit Bennett has ever had at Virginia - a near consensus top 20/5 star. These are all great signs, but I'll also include that even redshirted guys have some issues getting the pack line rotations down cold, and I expect there to be some growing pains with Nichols (and others) in regards to building chemistry throughout the noncon, and even into the 1st half of the league schedule. Still, I honestly believe that by March, he'll be our top player, and it won't be all that close.

Great points. Brogdon was the best player in the ACC last season and maybe the country because he was also a dominant defender besides being efficient on offense. And I actually think he was UVA's best player the previous two seasons as well as a sophomore and junior, although the margins between him and second place were smaller then. Losing him is obviously a huge loss, and I agree you'll need either Nichols or Perrantes to become a star in order to stay a top 10 team.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

There's never been a conference with so many accomplished coaches at the same time. K, Roy, Boeheim and Pitino are Hall of Famers, Bennett is on track to join them in a decade, and Larranaga has a long pedigree of success as an assistant and head coach going back to the top 5 Virginia teams of the early 80s.

I think we can all agree, there are some excellent coaches in the ACC these days.

[ipatent]

In the early 1980's, the ACC had Dean Smith, Jim Valvano, Lefty Dreisel, Bobby Cremmins, Terry Holland, and K -- that was six of the eight schools in the conference.

K was the one out of that group who hadn't done much yet.

That was a strong group, and Carl Tacy at Wake was no slouch as a coach either.

[PackMan97]

I don't understand your reasoning. One freshmen? Which one are you counting, Smith or Yurtseven?

Why doesn't Yurtseven count -- he's a 17 year old playing his first year of college basketball. He's in the same situation as Duke's Jack White (who is actually older than Yurtseven).

Yurtseven is a major talent -- projected as a first round draft pick in most 2017 mock drafts. As I noted earlier, one major mock draft has Dennis Smith as the No. 1 pick.

I don't see why the skepticism over two freshmen in the rotation. Are people skeptical of Duke because of the four freshmen likely to be in the rotation? How about Kentucky, which will also have four freshmen in the rotation. Believe me, Smith and Yurtseven are very much in a class with Giles, Tatum, Bolden, Jackson, Monk, Fox and Bam. Duke and Kentucky are generally rated as top five picks -- is it crazy to pick NC State No. 23?

What I was trying to say is that I believe this will be Smith's team. The college team is a guard's game. I'm very excited about Yurtseven, but without a guard to get him the ball...well let's not go there.

Even if the only recruit we had coming in were Smith, JR...I'd stll be stoked.

[BD80]

... Reuter is intriguing. ... If this guy was a couple notches more athletic, and an inch or two taller, he'd be Tyler Hansbrough. ...

And about six or seven years older.



That was a strong group, and Carl Tacy at Wake was no slouch as a coach either.

Don't be so hard, he was an incredible slouch!

[Spanarkel]

There's never been a conference with so many accomplished coaches at the same time. K, Roy, Boeheim and Pitino are Hall of Famers, Bennett is on track to join them in a decade, and Larranaga has a long pedigree of success as an assistant and head coach going back to the top 5 Virginia teams of the early 80s.



Mike Brey has 455 wins, and is 57 years old. He is on track for the HoF imo. Coach K is 21-5 against his former assistants, and MB owns all 5 of those wins.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Rick Pitino, Jim Boeheim, and Tony Bennett may disagree. Larranaga has won ACC COY two of the last four years, and in 2012-13 won several national COY awards.

There is a reason that Roy was voted "most overrated" by his peers. I'm not saying he's a bad coach. Contending that he is a clear second in the ACC is a dubious statement though.

As I said above, I think Carolina is going to be good. They do not have any superstars, but they have a lot of very good parts and a few players could really have breakthrough years. Berry, Meeks and Pinson certainly have that potential. Carolina is always dangerous, assuming no post-season ban.

Other than disagreeing about Roy, I think your write-up is pretty spot on.

UNC scares me. I agree with this post - UNC doesn't have any superstars, but I don't think they need them. Assuming they start Berry (duh), Jackson (duh), Hicks (duh), Meeks (probably, unless he went on the Sean-May-NBA-diet), and Pinson (possibly), that is a lot of experience! That's 3 juniors and 2 seniors. Not bad at all. However, if they start Nate Britt II - you know, the pre-season ACC Player of the Year - that's 3 seniors and 2 juniors.

I think Roy is an excellent coach, and he really redeemed himself last year. He will be competitive and I expect him to place second in the ACC.

[ipatent]

Don't be so hard, he was an incredible slouch!

Tacy was no doubt overshadowed by the others. I remember that the Golenbock book that brought Valvano down misspelled his name, which wasn't everything the fact checkers missed by a long shot.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Mike Brey has 455 wins, and is 57 years old. He is on track for the HoF imo. Coach K is 21-5 against his former assistants, and MB owns all 5 of those wins.

The most underrated ACC coach and by faaaaaaar the best coach from Coach K's coaching tree. I just wish he was 10 years younger...

[ipatent]

The most underrated ACC coach and by faaaaaaar the best coach from Coach K's coaching tree. I just wish he was 10 years younger...

He's done a great job there, and probably is more handicapped by his school's academics than K is at this point because basketball isn't their main priority.

[OldPhiKap]

Mike Brey has 455 wins, and is 57 years old. He is on track for the HoF imo. Coach K is 21-5 against his former assistants, and MB owns all 5 of those wins.


The most underrated ACC coach and by faaaaaaar the best coach from Coach K's coaching tree. I just wish he was 10 years younger...

I keep forgetting that Notre Dame is in the ACC. Sorta mostly. Brey is a very good coach, although I would not put him ahead of Roy.

If I had to rank:

K
Boeheim
Bennett
Pitino
Larranaga
Roy
Brey

[BD80]

He's done a great job there, and probably is more handicapped by his school's academics than K is at this point because basketball isn't their main priority.

Yeah, ol' roy laughs at poor Mike, knowing that tar heel basketball players get first dibs on the phony classes over football players.

[Troublemaker]

The most underrated ACC coach and by faaaaaaar the best coach from Coach K's coaching tree. I just wish he was 10 years younger...

Well, he's the most experienced. Give, say, Chris Collins the same amount of years coaching as Brey, and we'll see how their accomplishments stack up.

I like Brey. He's a good coach and one of the better offensive coaches in the country, but up until the past two seasons when ND made nice runs to the Elite 8 and also won an ACC Championship in 2015, he had a rather ordinary resume. Zero Big East regular season titles, Zero Big East tournament titles, and only 1 Sweet 16 appearance in the NCAAs in 15 seasons.

[OldPhiKap]

Well, he's the most experienced. Give, say, Chris Collins the same amount of years coaching as Brey, and we'll see how their accomplishments stack up.

I like Brey. He's a good coach and one of the better offensive coaches in the country, but up until the past two seasons when ND made nice runs to the Elite 8 and also won an ACC Championship in 2015, he had a rather ordinary resume. Zero Big East regular season titles, Zero Big East tournament titles, and only 1 Sweet 16 appearance in the NCAAs in 15 seasons.

Jeff Capel may end up being the best one in the family tree before all is said and done. Although Chris Collins certainly knows a thing or two about coaching.

I also like and respect Brey. As you mention, it is hard to compare with some of the younger guys who have not been out there as long.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Well, he's the most experienced. Give, say, Chris Collins the same amount of years coaching as Brey, and we'll see how their accomplishments stack up.

I like Brey. He's a good coach and one of the better offensive coaches in the country, but up until the past two seasons when ND made nice runs to the Elite 8 and also won an ACC Championship in 2015, he had a rather ordinary resume. Zero Big East regular season titles, Zero Big East tournament titles, and only 1 Sweet 16 appearance in the NCAAs in 15 seasons.

Sure, but you can use that excuse for anything. "Grant Hill is the most accomplished Duke NBA player. Give, say, Harry Giles the same amount of years as Hill, and we'll see how their accomplishments stack up."

Brey just doesn't get enough credit on this board. I get that he didn't play at Duke, but he was crucial on those '89-'92 teams as the lead assistant coach.

I know I'm in the minority, but I don't think that Coach K's coaching tree is that impressive. There are a few bright spots, but it's nowhere near Rick Pitino's. We say it's all about potential with Coach K's tree, but how about the branches that left the Duke program 5+ years ago?

[Troublemaker]

Sure, but you can use that excuse for anything. "Grant Hill is the most accomplished Duke NBA player. Give, say, Harry Giles the same amount of years as Hill, and we'll see how their accomplishments stack up."

Brey just doesn't get enough credit on this board. I get that he didn't play at Duke, but he was crucial on those '89-'92 teams as the lead assistant coach.

I know I'm in the minority, but I don't think that Coach K's coaching tree is that impressive. There are a few bright spots, but it's nowhere near Rick Pitino's. We say it's all about potential with Coach K's tree, but how about the branches that left the Duke program 5+ years ago?

Lol, you're completely imagining some sort of anti-Brey sentiment on this board. I have never noticed that.

And, no, you're not "in the minority" in thinking that Coach K's tree isn't that impressive yet. You're in the majority.

Finally, it's just a fact that prior to the previous two seasons, Jeff Capel and Quin Snyder had one more Elite 8 than Brey, and Amaker and Dawkins had the same number of Sweet 16s. But the past two seasons DID happen, so Brey deserves an edge on those guys, but Brey's resume was very ordinary for 15 years. And yes, give Chris Collins and Wojo some time. Collins especially has done a great job at Northwestern so far but he's only had three years. That's not an "excuse," it's just reality.

Oh, and Amaker has created a dominant Ivy League program and deserves some credit for that. And Snyder is the head coach of an up-and-coming young team in the Western Conference that might contend for years.

[ipatent]

by faaaaaaar the best coach from Coach K's coaching tree.

Dunno. Quin Snyder had some issues at Mizzou, but he is an NBA head coach.

[JasonEvans]

Don't be so hard, he was an incredible slouch!

Duuuuude! You had a chance but you blew the quote. The line should be, "He was a 'tremendous slouch.'"


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EeJVTimlyWk

[Ichabod Drain]

Jeff Goodman has been on Duke's campus today and has been tweeting out a few things from talking to the players.

1. Said Frank Jackson is a legit 6'4", I think we've seen him listed as 6'3" in a few places.

2. Allen is down 10 pounds from the weight he played at last year. Said he feels much quicker.

3. Giles still hasn't been cleared for full contact practice but he should be soon and should be on schedule to be ready for opener.

[Troublemaker]

Jeff Goodman has been on Duke's campus today and has been tweeting out a few things from talking to the players.

1. Said Frank Jackson is a legit 6'4", I think we've seen him listed as 6'3" in a few places.

2. Allen is down 10 pounds from the weight he played at last year. Said he feels much quicker.

3. Giles still hasn't been cleared for full contact practice but he should be soon and should be on schedule to be ready for opener.

Good to hear. It IS interesting, though, that 10 months out from his surgery date (Nov 24th of last year) (https://twitter.com/HGizzle1/status/669203912495341568), he's not cleared for full contact yet. I guess Duke really is being extra-cautious here. FDD, you may have been right.

[Wahoo2000]

Good to hear. It IS interesting, though, that 10 months out from his surgery date (Nov 24th of last year) (https://twitter.com/HGizzle1/status/669203912495341568), he's not cleared for full contact yet. I guess Duke really is being extra-cautious here. FDD, you may have been right.

When you're going to be recruiting kids of his caliber that have as a primary goal being 1-and-done, you want to show them that you're going to take "extra special care" of them. Babying a guy back from his second blown ACL is not only a good way to send that signal, it's also probably the rational course of action to maximize his health/return - especially when there's no real need to rush with Jefferson, Bolden, & Jeter (plus Tatum could certainly move down for a few minutes as needed).

[Troublemaker]

When you're going to be recruiting kids of his caliber that have as a primary goal being 1-and-done, you want to show them that you're going to take "extra special care" of them. Babying a guy back from his second blown ACL is not only a good way to send that signal, it's also probably the rational course of action to maximize his health/return - especially when there's no real need to rush with Jefferson, Bolden, & Jeter (plus Tatum could certainly move down for a few minutes as needed).

I dunno about that. I think you're either ready or you're not. For example, when Adrian Peterson returned from ACL surgery in 9 months to play Week 1 and go on to rush for 2,000 yards, I don't think his medical team was taking a risk there or not maximizing his health there. I think he was ready at 9 months and would not have been any more ready at 10 months, 11 months, etc. So I suspect it's not purely "babying" going on here, but there's probably some medical reason why Harry isn't going full contact yet at 10 months. But I'm glad to hear that it will happen soon.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Good to hear. It IS interesting, though, that 10 months out from his surgery date (Nov 24th of last year) (https://twitter.com/HGizzle1/status/669203912495341568), he's not cleared for full contact yet. I guess Duke really is being extra-cautious here. FDD, you may have been right.

Here's the thing: Harry Giles has had two severe knee injuries (one super major and the other kinda major. See, these are not medical terms) before his 18th birthday. If I'm Duke, I'm asking, "is this bad luck or does Harry have bad knees?" The truth is, only Harry's medical staff and the Duke staff probably know the answer to that question. Here at DBR, we don't know. But, if I'm Duke, I'm not risking anything. I'm running tests on Harry. I'm not allowing anything that has a snowball-chance-in-hell of reinjuring a knee. And I'm easing back Harry as slowly as possible.

I'm not surprised by the non-contact practice right now. Duke is correctly being precautionary right now. Can you imagine the backlash and negative press if Harry reinjures a knee again? At DBR, we'd say it's bad knees. Everyone else would say Duke rushed Harry onto the court. Also, Duke has Harry's best interest in mind. If they can't bring Harry in until December? Who cares! We have more than enough talent to compensate for Harry's absence over two months.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Here's the thing: Harry Giles has had two severe knee injuries (one super major and the other kinda major. See, these are not medical terms) before his 18th birthday. If I'm Duke, I'm asking, "is this bad luck or does Harry have bad knees?" The truth is, only Harry's medical staff and the Duke staff probably know the answer to that question. Here at DBR, we don't know.

I would say it is entirely possible that no one knows the answer to this with any certainty. Regardless, caution is definitely warranted.

[Ichabod Drain]

I hope Giles has a full recovery and takes as much time as he needs to get there. As others have said we have more than enough talent on this team, especially in the front court.

Once he's back I could reasonably see him coming off the bench for a while. How cool would that be to have a second unit with Giles leading it?

[ipatent]

Can you imagine the backlash and negative press if Harry reinjures a knee again?

We all know Duke University is managed for the benefit of the Medical Center, and they don't want any embarrassment. :)

[budwom]

Jeff Goodman has been on Duke's campus today and has been tweeting out a few things from talking to the players.

1. Said Frank Jackson is a legit 6'4", I think we've seen him listed as 6'3" in a few places.

2. Allen is down 10 pounds from the weight he played at last year. Said he feels much quicker.

3. Giles still hasn't been cleared for full contact practice but he should be soon and should be on schedule to be ready for opener.

The roster has Jackson at 6-3, and at Nike Hoop Summit he was measured at 6-3.5 WITH shoes...yeah, maybe he's grown....

[Ichabod Drain]

Big blow for the #5 team in the rankings. Villanova's five star freshman PF Omari Spellman has to take an academic redshirt this year.

[Troublemaker]

Big blow for the #5 team in the rankings. Villanova's five star freshman PF Omari Spellman has to take an academic redshirt this year.

Agreed, big loss. It's all on Darryl Reynolds to replace the graduated Daniel Ochefu now. Odds are, Villanova won't be nearly as effective at center this season. Their strength will still be on the perimeter, but you want that balance and depth inside.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Big blow for the #5 team in the rankings. Villanova's five star freshman PF Omari Spellman has to take an academic redshirt this year.

Villanova keeps academic records? Geez...

[Indoor66]

Big blow for the #5 team in the rankings. Villanova's five star freshman PF Omari Spellman has to take an academic redshirt this year.

At least that never happens over at the Dump on the Hump! :p:rolleyes::cool:

[arnie]

At least that never happens over at the Dump on the Hump! :p:rolleyes::cool:

To my knowledge Roy, Butch Davus and Fedora have never experienced the impact of an academically inelgible athlete. Can we assume they only recruit genius level student athletes since their curricula is so difficult?

[TexHawk]

Oregon beat the snot out of a good, well-coached Duke team. I really like what they have going. Put me down in the Oregon camp. I think they are a clear top 5er and second tier team (Duke is the only first tier team). I put them in the same camp as Nova and Kansas. I think any of these three teams can be #2, but I like Oregon based on their returning players.

KU loses two players off a team that won 17 of 18 to close out the year, falling to the eventual champs in the last minute:

Perry Ellis, who was a fantastic offensive player/terrible defensive player. He is being replaced by Carlton Bragg, a McDAA who only got 8 mpg in 15-16. He should be (fingers crossed) able to provide 70% of what Ellis brought to the table.
Wayne Selden, who never approached what he could have been in Lawrence. He is being replaced by Josh Jackson, who is on the short-list of players in discussion for the #1 pick in the NBA Draft next June.

16-17 features a starting 5 of Mason(SR)-Graham(JR)-Jackson(FR)-Bragg-(SO)-Lucas(SR). With Svi Mykhailiuk as the 6th man, and Udoka Azubuike (McDAA) the first big off the bench. They have shooting, defense, senior leadership, and athleticism at all spots on the floor. What exactly holds them back from the first tier?

[Troublemaker]

KU loses two players off a team that won 17 of 18 to close out the year, falling to the eventual champs in the last minute:

Perry Ellis, who was a fantastic offensive player/terrible defensive player. He is being replaced by Carlton Bragg, a McDAA who only got 8 mpg in 15-16. He should be (fingers crossed) able to provide 70% of what Ellis brought to the table.
Wayne Selden, who never approached what he could have been in Lawrence. He is being replaced by Josh Jackson, who is on the short-list of players in discussion for the #1 pick in the NBA Draft next June.

16-17 features a starting 5 of Mason(SR)-Graham(JR)-Jackson(FR)-Bragg-(SO)-Lucas(SR). With Svi Mykhailiuk as the 6th man, and Udoka Azubuike (McDAA) the first big off the bench. They have shooting, defense, senior leadership, and athleticism at all spots on the floor. What exactly holds them back from the first tier?

That wasn't meant as an insult to Kansas, as he did say you guys were a top-5 team and possibly #2. It's just that many Blue Devils fans believe this Duke team will be a juggernaut that belongs in a tier of its own. Personally, I mostly don't buy that. I would rank us #1 but I don't think there's great enough separation from Kansas, Oregon, etc to merit our own tier.

Kansas is my #2 team. I think you guys have the best starting perimeter trio in the country in Graham-Mason-Jackson, even better than Duke's. I think Duke has the better interior players.

[JasonEvans]

KU loses two players off a team that won 17 of 18 to close out the year, falling to the eventual champs in the last minute:

Perry Ellis, who was a fantastic offensive player/terrible defensive player. He is being replaced by Carlton Bragg, a McDAA who only got 8 mpg in 15-16. He should be (fingers crossed) able to provide 70% of what Ellis brought to the table.
Wayne Selden, who never approached what he could have been in Lawrence. He is being replaced by Josh Jackson, who is on the short-list of players in discussion for the #1 pick in the NBA Draft next June.

16-17 features a starting 5 of Mason(SR)-Graham(JR)-Jackson(FR)-Bragg-(SO)-Lucas(SR). With Svi Mykhailiuk as the 6th man, and Udoka Azubuike (McDAA) the first big off the bench. They have shooting, defense, senior leadership, and athleticism at all spots on the floor. What exactly holds them back from the first tier?

I think you are really, really glossing over the contributions of Ellis and Selden. We are talking about two guys who were three year starters and were 1st and 2nd team All-B12 last season. Ellis was a 1st team All-American for goodness sake!! He is "being replaced" by a dude who barely got off the bench much of the season (though he certainly showed promise when he did). KU's interior depth has been decimated with the loss of Ellis along with Jamari Traylor and Cheick Dialo, (and to a lesser extent Hunter Mickelson).

I agree that Mason, Graham, and Jackson are likely to be the top backcourt in the land (though Mason and Graham have never had to be nearly the go-to guys they will be asked to be this coming season) and I am not for a moment saying that KU is not a strong contender for the national title. But they don't bring back anyone on the inside as good as Amile Jefferson; anyone on the perimeter anywhere close to as good as Grayson Allen; and though they have 1 elite freshman star and a strong complementary freshman, Duke has at least 2 elite freshmen and a couple more who are complementary or better...

...and I didn't even get into specialists Matt Jones and Luke Kennard, arguably the top perimeter defender in the land and one of the elite scorers in the country.

Allow me to put it this way... if you lined up the top 8 or so players on each team... where is Kansas demonstrably better than Duke? Cause Duke is for sure better at PG (Grayson vs. Mason) as well as C and PF (Amile and Harry vs Bragg and Lucas) and the bench is an utter blowout for Duke. I'd say Jackson and Tatum are very close (NBA may like Jackson better, but in terms of contributing to winning right now, Tatum may be the better player). I'll conceded that Devonte Graham may be a little bit better than Matt Jones, though Jones' defense and intangibles are the kind of things that win games while not filling up the boxscore.

--Jason "again, Kansas is good, quite good, but there original poster who said Duke would be alone in a top tier was likely right" Evans

[TexHawk]

I think you are really, really glossing over the contributions of Ellis and Selden. We are talking about two guys who were three year starters and were 1st and 2nd team All-B12 last season. Ellis was a 1st team All-American for goodness sake!! He is "being replaced" by a dude who barely got off the bench much of the season (though he certainly showed promise when he did). KU's interior depth has been decimated with the loss of Ellis along with Jamari Traylor and Cheick Dialo, (and to a lesser extent Hunter Mickelson).

I agree that Mason, Graham, and Jackson are likely to be the top backcourt in the land (though Mason and Graham have never had to be nearly the go-to guys they will be asked to be this coming season) and I am not for a moment saying that KU is not a strong contender for the national title. But they don't bring back anyone on the inside as good as Amile Jefferson; anyone on the perimeter anywhere close to as good as Grayson Allen; and though they have 1 elite freshman star and a strong complementary freshman, Duke has at least 2 elite freshmen and a couple more who are complementary or better...

...and I didn't even get into specialists Matt Jones and Luke Kennard, arguably the top perimeter defender in the land and one of the elite scorers in the country.

Allow me to put it this way... if you lined up the top 8 or so players on each team... where is Kansas demonstrably better than Duke? Cause Duke is for sure better at PG (Grayson vs. Mason) as well as C and PF (Amile and Harry vs Bragg and Lucas) and the bench is an utter blowout for Duke. I'd say Jackson and Tatum are very close (NBA may like Jackson better, but in terms of contributing to winning right now, Tatum may be the better player). I'll conceded that Devonte Graham may be a little bit better than Matt Jones, though Jones' defense and intangibles are the kind of things that win games while not filling up the boxscore.

--Jason "again, Kansas is good, quite good, but there original poster who said Duke would be alone in a top tier was likely right" Evans

I am on record stating that Duke has more talented players 1-8 and has a higher ceiling, but there are question marks, especially early in the season. Kinda depends on your view of "Is the #1 team the one that is the best right now? Or the one most likely to win the title?" Given what we know now, if I had a gun to my head in Vegas, and I had to bet on a national champ, I would put it on Duke. But when the two teams tip off in MSG in November, I would probably pick KU*. Duke will be relying on freshman to play heavy roles, and KU will not. Given that, I don't see anything that puts KU *clearly* on a lower tier.

* KU has to play a Top 20 Indiana squad in Hawaii 3 days before this, so jet lag and/or depth could be an issue. Not an excuse, but I ain't betting on it...

Re your points on Mason/Graham/Bragg/Jackson...
1- One thing I am not worried about is Devonte Graham and Frank Mason being able to handle being "goto guys". Graham was the goto perimeter player from last February on, and was a/the primary reason for the 17 game winning streak before the Nova game. He was the Big12 Tournament MVP. He was the best player in the Big12 from February 1 to the end of March (non-Buddy Hield division). Mason has started 109 games in a KU uniform.
2- Josh Jackson is only going to be asked to defend, facilitate, and catch lobs. He is not a shooter, and that's not really needed with Mason/Graham/Bragg/Svi around. I am sure his offensive numbers will pale in comparison to other lottery picks (including Tatum), but Jackson is perfect for this KU team. He's basically everything you say about Matt Jones, but in the body of a future NBA All-Star. It's funny that you used the phrase "contributing to winning right now" for Tatum, when that is exactly what the expectations for Jackson are. He will post averages around 12/5/5, with A++ defense. Anything more than that is cream cheese. This is not another Wiggins situation, who basically had to shoulder the load offensively and defensively for long stretches.
3- If I had to pick a concern, it would be Bragg filling Ellis's spot, but that's nicking pits. Bragg is a much better passer than Ellis, and is tailor made for Bill Self's hi-low offense. (Ellis was a black hole.) And it's not like we haven't seen freshmen big men improving in KU's offseason program before their sophomore years. Darrell Arthur, Sasha Kaun, Cole Aldrich, Morris x2, Thomas Robinson, and yea, Perry Ellis all say hi. I would not be surprised if this was Bragg's last season in Lawrence.

Is it really still September?

[Wahoo2000]

What exactly holds them back from the first tier?

From an impartial observer:

1. Talent: Duke has 4 guys who are likely lottery picks, at least top 20 picks (Giles, Tatum, Bolden, Allen), and an overall roster similar in talent level to Kentucky in 14-15, or UNLV in 90-91 (I only hope their season ends similarly short of a title - no offense, Duke fans).
2. Veteran excellence: Guys like Jefferson and Jones (plus Allen) check all the boxes: Leadership/Defense/Championship experience
3. Coaching: While the gap between K and the next set of guys like Self, Izzo, etc isn't HUGE, it's still clear. Self is a Chalmers miracle away from having a real issue with his perceived ability to win in the NCAA tournament

I think Kansas is going to be awesome this year. AWESOME. In the vast majority of seasons, they'd either be #1, or at a minimum get a huge chunk of the #1 votes. Stars are just kind of aligning for a Duke "superteam" this year. I hope they slip up, but the only even slight weakness I can see is lack of an elite, quick, shutdown perimeter defender (apologies to Duke fans, Jones isn't staying in front of really quick guards 30+ feet from the basket). I don't see that stopping them from winning 30+ games easy, and being HUGE favorites to take an incredibly deep/challenging ACC, and probably clear odds-on favorites to win the title (still hoping they slip up somewhere along the way though!).

[ChillinDuke]

I am on record stating that Duke has more talented players 1-8 and has a higher ceiling, but there are question marks, especially early in the season. Kinda depends on your view of "Is the #1 team the one that is the best right now? Or the one most likely to win the title?" Given what we know now, if I had a gun to my head in Vegas, and I had to bet on a national champ, I would put it on Duke. But when the two teams tip off in MSG in November, I would probably pick KU*. Duke will be relying on freshman to play heavy roles, and KU will not. Given that, I don't see anything that puts KU *clearly* on a lower tier.

* KU has to play a Top 20 Indiana squad in Hawaii 3 days before this, so jet lag and/or depth could be an issue. Not an excuse, but I ain't betting on it...

Re your points on Mason/Graham/Bragg/Jackson...
1- One thing I am not worried about is Devonte Graham and Frank Mason being able to handle being "goto guys". Graham was the goto perimeter player from last February on, and was a/the primary reason for the 17 game winning streak before the Nova game. He was the Big12 Tournament MVP. He was the best player in the Big12 from February 1 to the end of March (non-Buddy Hield division). Mason has started 109 games in a KU uniform.
2- Josh Jackson is only going to be asked to defend, facilitate, and catch lobs. He is not a shooter, and that's not really needed with Mason/Graham/Bragg/Svi around. I am sure his offensive numbers will pale in comparison to other lottery picks (including Tatum), but Jackson is perfect for this KU team. He's basically everything you say about Matt Jones, but in the body of a future NBA All-Star. It's funny that you used the phrase "contributing to winning right now" for Tatum, when that is exactly what the expectations for Jackson are. He will post averages around 12/5/5, with A++ defense. Anything more than that is cream cheese. This is not another Wiggins situation, who basically had to shoulder the load offensively and defensively for long stretches.
3- If I had to pick a concern, it would be Bragg filling Ellis's spot, but that's nicking pits. Bragg is a much better passer than Ellis, and is tailor made for Bill Self's hi-low offense. (Ellis was a black hole.) And it's not like we haven't seen freshmen big men improving in KU's offseason program before their sophomore years. Darrell Arthur, Sasha Kaun, Cole Aldrich, Morris x2, Thomas Robinson, and yea, Perry Ellis all say hi. I would not be surprised if this was Bragg's last season in Lawrence.

Is it really still September?

Tex, you're a great resource on this Board. Love your insights into Kansas and Texas. But I'm amazed at how you're completely marginalizing Perry Ellis. Guy was one of the best players in the country. Bar none.

Bragg filling his spot is waaaaaay more of a concern than picking nits. Cmon.

- Chillin

[flyingdutchdevil]

Tex, you're a great resource on this Board. Love your insights into Kansas and Texas. But I'm amazed at how you're completely marginalizing Perry Ellis. Guy was one of the best players in the country. Bar none.

Bragg filling his spot is waaaaaay more of a concern than picking nits. Cmon.

- Chillin

Couldn't agree more.

I'm the one calling Kansas a tier two team. And I mean that. This is from the guy who thinks that UNC was a powerhouse last year (muuuuuch better than Duke) and laughed when DBRers put down UNC (looking at you, Kedsy).

I don't have confidence in Duke. I often think we're good, but I've never thought we're the best.

That changed this year. I've stated my reasons. I won't repeat them.

There is only one tier 1 school. Best returning player. Best freshman class. Best coach. Stars are aligning. Are we really arguing that anyone else is tier 1? Tier 1s don't always win (hi nova!) but tier 1s are unique.

I like josh Jackson. Really do. But I'd take Grayson Allen any day of the week and 5837463 times on Sunday over Jackson.

FDD, out.

[Kedsy]

I'm the one calling Kansas a tier two team. And I mean that. This is from the guy who thinks that UNC was a powerhouse last year (muuuuuch better than Duke) and laughed when DBRers put down UNC (looking at you, Kedsy).

I don't know why you chose to drag me into this, but since you did, I'll respond:

(a) I think this year's edition of Kansas fits any definition of a "tier one" team.

(b) I'm still surprised UNC went as far as they did in last season's Tournament. I do not think UNC was "muuuuuch better" than Duke last season, certainly not while we had Amile.

(c) I don't entirely understand why your opinion on last year's UNC team lends credence to your opinion on this year's Kansas team, unless you've also been "right" about every other team in every other season.

(d) What I laugh at is when DBRers equate NCAA tournament performance with how good a team is. As if one bad game or a handful of good ones negate what happened in the previous 30+.

[Troublemaker]

Yes, FDD, if we're going to bring up past performance on predictions, I will mention that in the very recent past during the Olympics, you refused to believe that any of Team USA's FIBA opponents would be able to give us a game. But, lo and behold, that's exactly what happened -- several times.

You may be making a similar mistake again by not giving enough respect to college basketball's top teams besides Duke.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Yes, FDD, if we're going to bring up past performance on predictions, I will mention that in the very recent past during the Olympics, you refused to believe that any of Team USA's FIBA opponents would be able to give us a game. But, lo and behold, that's exactly what happened -- several times.

You may be making a similar mistake again by not giving enough respect to college basketball's top teams besides Duke.

I certainly did believe that Team USA would steamroll through opponents. I was certainly surprised by the difficulty that Team USA had with a few select teams in the first round.

I may be making the same mistake with Duke, but I'm not predicting a 40-0 season (I think we'll actually lose 2-3 games) nor an I predicting that every game will be a 20+ point blow out. But, on paper, there is no team that compares. Couple that with one of the best coaches (if not the best coach), and it's a pretty amazing thing we got.

There are some really good teams out there (I like Nova and Oregon a lot and wouldn't want to face them in the tournament) but feel that Kansas is slightly overrated. Self has had polarizing success with high profile recruits, and Jackson could be a bust or he could be elite (I'm guessing he's the next MKG, as his defense is supposed to be unbelievable). Also, the ACC is stacked, with Louisville, UNC, and Uva threatening every night.

But, when all is said and done, I think we stand alone, both in terms of tiers and tournament success.

[mo.st.dukie]

With Grayson, Amile, Matt, and Luke in the top 8 of the rotation and at least two will start, I don't think Duke will be relying as heavily on freshmen as much as some opposing fans think. It's not like those guys are stepping into new, increased roles, all have started a bunch of games. I don't really see how a team like KU has more experience than Duke.

[flyingdutchdevil]

With Grayson, Amile, Matt, and Luke in the top 8 of the rotation and at least two will start, I don't think Duke will be relying as heavily on freshmen as much as some opposing fans think. I don't really see how a team like KU has more experience than Duke.

I don't see it either. More do they have more "returning" talent. I'd take a core of Allen, AJ, Matt, and Kennard over Mason, Graham, Lucas, Bragg, and Mykhailudkfdfkddfk (I may have messed up the spelling on that one).

Mason is a stud and Graham is a great shooter. But outside of those two, I'm not sure who provides offense. The upside of our core 4 is that each averaged over 10ppg last year (I concede that if AJ was healthy, Matt and/or Kennard probably wouldn't have averaged 10+ points).

And if you look at the freshman, it's not even close. Jackson is the #1 player in the class (RSCI), but Giles is a close second. Tatum is top 5 (#4). Bolden is #11. Jackson is #14. Javin is #35. Azubuike, Kansas's second best recruit, is ranked #33, only two spots ahead of our fifth highest ranked recruit.

[TexHawk]

Apologies, need to unpack a lot of these, and need to take them one by one.



3. Coaching: While the gap between K and the next set of guys like Self, Izzo, etc isn't HUGE, it's still clear. Self is a Chalmers miracle away from having a real issue with his perceived ability to win in the NCAA tournament


Obviously Duke has the coaching edge, but we are not talking about the tournament. I already claimed that Duke should be the favorites, but that's a good 6 months away. We are talking about tiers of good teams when we haven't seen any freshman play yet. Nobody can claim that Bill Self is a slouch when it comes to building a good team, which is my assertion here.

(And don't throw the Mizzou-level "If not for Mario Chalmers" nonsense around like it's meaningful. A lot of folks around here give K a little credit for drawing up a similar play for Christian Laettner. And don't get me started on "fluke" NCAA tournament occurrences, as KU has been the victim of those far more than most.)


Tex, you're a great resource on this Board. Love your insights into Kansas and Texas. But I'm amazed at how you're completely marginalizing Perry Ellis. Guy was one of the best players in the country. Bar none.

Bragg filling his spot is waaaaaay more of a concern than picking nits. Cmon.

Perry Ellis is one of my favorite players in KU history, he will be remembered with many all-time greats. And I understand why you might not believe me here, but part of me couldn't wait to see him graduate. The dude averaged 1 assist per game for his career. That is comical playing next to guys like Andrew Wiggins, Wayne Selden, Devonte Graham, Ben McLemore, and Joel Embiid. He was one of those guys that probably looked good-to-great to the average ACC fan, but was extremely frustrating to the passionate KU fan base at times.

Of course he had a good run, he single-handedly won several games in his 4 years. But I am selfishly excited to see KU get back to an offense where the ball doesn't stick. KU should have 4 above-average passers on the floor with Jackson/Bragg taking over for Selden and Ellis. 5 when we go small with Svi.



I like josh Jackson. Really do. But I'd take Grayson Allen any day of the week and 5837463 times on Sunday over Jackson.

Did I make this comparison anywhere? I would probably take Allen too. Jackson will be anywhere from the 3rd to 5th offensive option when he's on the floor.



Self has had polarizing success with high profile recruits, and Jackson could be a bust or he could be elite (I'm guessing he's the next MKG, as his defense is supposed to be unbelievable).
Can you unpack the polarizing success for me? Self's first recruiting class was ranked #1 and won a national title. The Morris brothers were late transfers who couldn't dunk, who then became lottery picks. Cole Aldrich and Thomas Robinson were also lottery picks. Andrew Wiggins went #1 in the draft. Joel Embiid went #3 (and probably would have gone #1 instead of Wiggins if it wasn't for injury).

I am going to guess your case for "polarizing" is Cliff Alexander and Cheick Diallo. Which, um, I don't really have the time or inclination to debate. Especially since one was an NCAA issue and completely unrelated to the court. Self's record speaks for itself here.


I don't see it either. More do they have more "returning" talent. I'd take a core of Allen, AJ, Matt, and Kennard over Mason, Graham, Lucas, Bragg, and Mykhailudkfdfkddfk (I may have messed up the spelling on that one).

Mason is a stud and Graham is a great shooter. But outside of those two, I'm not sure who provides offense. The upside of our core 4 is that each averaged over 10ppg last year (I concede that if AJ was healthy, Matt and/or Kennard probably wouldn't have averaged 10+ points).

And if you look at the freshman, it's not even close. Jackson is the #1 player in the class (RSCI), but Giles is a close second. Tatum is top 5 (#4). Bolden is #11. Jackson is #14. Javin is #35. Azubuike, Kansas's second best recruit, is ranked #33, only two spots ahead of our fifth highest ranked recruit.
This probably gets to the crux of my initial assertion. I disagree on Mason/Graham/Lucas/Bragg/Svi vs Allen/AJ/Matt/Kennard, which is probably not surprising. Fans do that sometimes.

But in the case of both teams, RIGHT NOW, nobody has seen any of the freshman play a meaningful game yet. And Giles is coming off injury. So... from my admittedly biased perspective, KU has the edge in returning players + one high-level freshman with almost no pressure on him to score. Duke has the edge in depth and coaching. (Though coaching is a bit overstated for an early November game, if this game is in April... different story.)

[Wander]

The whole thing about "tiers" is of course very subjective, but I wouldn't call a team that has 2 of its 3 best players coming off of season-long injuries in its own obvious tier above everyone else (I'd still have us #1, though).

[COYS]

The whole thing about "tiers" is of course very subjective, but I wouldn't call a team that has 2 of its 3 best players coming off of season-long injuries in its own obvious tier above everyone else (I'd still have us #1, though).

I am extremely optimistic and excited about Duke next season, but I feel very similarly. Having Grayson back makes me more optimistic, but there still are enough question marks that I'm not sure Duke can be clearly separated from the field. Harry hasn't had played basketball without restrictions in almost a full year . . . And he'll be transitioning to college. Amile has worked his way back and has experience, so I think he'll be fine, but it is not yet a given he returns to pre injury form. We lack a traditional point guard, which, again, probably won't be an issue, but we don't know that yet. And we have to figure out the balance between exploiting our wealth of frontcourt talent and providing enough spacing for our talented guards to attack the hoop.

The ceiling is really, really high. There's more returning talent than the 2015 had, and the recruiting class looks equally good or possibly even better on paper. But the pieces don't fit as obviously as 2015, where Tyus, Jay, and Justise fit nicely into obvious roles in the lineup, with Quinn shifting to shooting guard being the only question. Justise's shooting allowed him to play up at the 4 later in the year to revitalize the offense and bring Matt in for defense.

Again, I'm optimistic, but there is a real question as to whether or not Jayson can shoot consistently enough from three to provide the same shooting threat that Justise could provide. If he can't, that leaves Amile, Harry, Marques, and Jayson as guys that might not provide spacing due to lack of range on their jumper. That might be a problem (or it might not).

If given a choice, I'd take Duke's roster over any other team in NCAA basketball because the combo of returning talent and freshmen potential is irresistible. And I trust K to figure out how to make the pieces fit. But I do think there are some puzzles to be solved. I'd love Duke to go wire to wire number 1, like the '92 team. But I will not be remotely concerned if there are a few growing pains as the team and the staff tease out the best lineups and put players in the best roles (which will inevitably change over the course of the year).

[flyingdutchdevil]

Did I make this comparison anywhere? I would probably take Allen too. Jackson will be anywhere from the 3rd to 5th offensive option when he's on the floor.

You didn't. I'm was making a very separate point.


Can you unpack the polarizing success for me? Self's first recruiting class was ranked #1 and won a national title. The Morris brothers were late transfers who couldn't dunk, who then became lottery picks. Cole Aldrich and Thomas Robinson were also lottery picks. Andrew Wiggins went #1 in the draft. Joel Embiid went #3 (and probably would have gone #1 instead of Wiggins if it wasn't for injury).

I am going to guess your case for "polarizing" is Cliff Alexander and Cheick Diallo. Which, um, I don't really have the time or inclination to debate. Especially since one was an NCAA issue and completely unrelated to the court. Self's record speaks for itself here.

You can't blame the NCAA on Alexander's poor performance WHEN he did play. Is the NCAA also responsible for Alexander being undrafted?

And it's not just Alexander and Diallo. Other players that come to mind are Xavier Henry and Josh Selby. Alexander, Diallo, Henry, and Selby were ranked (by RSCI) #4, #6, #6, and #6, respectively (that's a lot of 6s!). All four left after their freshman year. They got drafted, respectively, undrafted, 33rd (2nd round), 12th (and no longer with a team), and 49th (2nd round). That is 4 highly recruited players who had atrocious freshman seasons only to declare too early (Xavier was the exception. He did okay, not great. But it's safe to say that he didn't live up to expectations). Don't get me wrong - every team has their fair share of highly recruited players who don't live up to expectations. I just feel that Kansas has more of them, especially the high profile ones who don't make it. And that is what I mean by polarizing.


This probably gets to the crux of my initial assertion. I disagree on Mason/Graham/Lucas/Bragg/Svi vs Allen/AJ/Matt/Kennard, which is probably not surprising. Fans do that sometimes.

Fans most certainly do. I love this returning nucleus. It includes the best returning college basketball player (Grayson), a double-double defensive stud (Jefferson), a 3-and-Der (Jones), and a 3pt specialist with a handle (Kennard). These four along are what makes me so excited about this year. I don't think we're going to get anywhere debating the returning players, so let's just leave it at that.


But in the case of both teams, RIGHT NOW, nobody has seen any of the freshman play a meaningful game yet. And Giles is coming off injury. So... from my admittedly biased perspective, KU has the edge in returning players + one high-level freshman with almost no pressure on him to score. Duke has the edge in depth and coaching. (Though coaching is a bit overstated for an early November game, if this game is in April... different story.)

I think you're discounting freshman, especially freshman at Duke. With 6, at least a few will make an impact (and likely 3-4 will make one). With that many new recruits (not to mention elite recruits), it's a numbers game.

IMO, Duke has an edge in returning players, depth, and elite freshman recruits. I think Duke and Kansas are equal in coaching (Self may even edge K in Xs and Os).

[TexHawk]

You can't blame the NCAA on Alexander's poor performance WHEN he did play. Is the NCAA also responsible for Alexander being undrafted?

And it's not just Alexander and Diallo. Other players that come to mind are Xavier Henry and Josh Selby. Alexander, Diallo, Henry, and Selby were ranked (by RSCI) #4, #6, #6, and #6, respectively (that's a lot of 6s!). All four left after their freshman year. They got drafted, respectively, undrafted, 33rd (2nd round), 12th (and no longer with a team), and 49th (2nd round). That is 4 highly recruited players who had atrocious freshman seasons only to declare too early (Xavier was the exception. He did okay, not great. But it's safe to say that he didn't live up to expectations). Don't get me wrong - every team has their fair share of highly recruited players who don't live up to expectations. I just feel that Kansas has more of them, especially the high profile ones who don't make it. And that is what I mean by polarizing.
I will give you Cliff, but it's worth noting that he was trending up when the NCAA hit the fan. He wasn't going to live up to his high school ranking, but he probably would have been drafted, albeit much much lower than the lottery.

Josh Selby was the 2nd leading scorer on a really good team when he severely sprained his ankle. He tried to come back too soon and couldn't break back into the rotation. Tough luck for him. I understand why opposing fans bring him up as a black mark against Self, but if he had played for Duke and you knew the whole story, you might feel different.

Those I get... But it will be a cold day in Chapel Hill before I let someone besmirch the good name of Xavier Henry. ;) Only Danny Manning had a better freshman season in Kansas history. At least until Ben McLemore and Andrew Wiggins arrived, but we can't talk about them because that might show that Bill Self has an ok track record highly-ranked recruits. Oh well.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I will give you Cliff, but it's worth noting that he was trending up when the NCAA hit the fan. He wasn't going to live up to his high school ranking, but he probably would have been drafted, albeit much much lower than the lottery.

Josh Selby was the 2nd leading scorer on a really good team when he severely sprained his ankle. He tried to come back too soon and couldn't break back into the rotation. Tough luck for him. I understand why opposing fans bring him up as a black mark against Self, but if he had played for Duke and you knew the whole story, you might feel different.

Those I get... But it will be a cold day in Chapel Hill before I let someone besmirch the good name of Xavier Henry. ;) Only Danny Manning had a better freshman season in Kansas history. At least until Ben McLemore and Andrew Wiggins arrived, but we can't talk about them because that might show that Bill Self has an ok track record highly-ranked recruits. Oh well.

Hahahaha. Are you really taking this personally? I never said he has an "ok track record" (thanks for putting words in my mouth!)

Self has done a great job with many OADs (Embiid, Wiggins, likely Josh Jackson) and developed many low 5-star/high 4-star recruits (Morris brothers, 40-year old Ellis, Wayne Shelden) but he does have black marks for a few very high profile recruits.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

So, if I understand this thread correctly, the question here seems to be "will Duke be really, really, really good? Or, will Duke be untouchable great?"

How I adore the optimism of the off season.

[flyingdutchdevil]

So, if I understand this thread correctly, the question here seems to be "will Duke be really, really, really good? Or, will Duke be untouchable great?"

How I adore the optimism of the off season.

Where would you rank 1992? Or 2001? ;)

Of course, we could go 1999 or 2006, but that won't happen :D

So excited for October (well, minus the leaves falling...)

[TexHawk]

Hahahaha. Are you really taking this personally? I never said he has an "ok track record" (thanks for putting words in my mouth!)

No no no. All in good fun.

This discussion in CBB is at all times maddening/hilarious/dumb-founding.

John Calipari, universally known as the OAD King. Aaron/Andrew Harrison #4 and #5 RSCI, to undrafted/2nd round. Or Alex Poythress. Or the Dakari Johnson/Marcus Lee pupu platter. How many people bring them up when talking about Calipari's magic with young talent?
Andrew Wiggins, who I will use to bolster my arguments wherever I can, would probably have been the #1 pick if my grandmother was his coach.
Cheick Diallo could not/would not learn offensive plays. If he had, maybe he would have been drafted higher than 33rd. When Bill Self couldn't get through to him, he benched him. Coaching/player development is a 2-way street.

[budwom]

Lots of good reading here, and I'm not enough of an expert to say much about Kansas other than I'm firmly in TexHawks corner on Perry Ellis.
Repeatedly underwhelmed by his game...he makes one fine blazer, though...

[Ichabod Drain]

I never really knew exactly what to think of Ellis when watching him play.

So I defer to the unbiased Kenpom. Ellis was sixth on the list for KPOY last year. Other guys on the list include Brice Johnson, Buddy Hield, Malcolm Brogdon, Georges Niang and so on. With a similar impact to those players I expect Kansas will miss Ellis a great deal this coming year.

[budwom]

I never really knew exactly what to think of Ellis when watching him play.

So I defer to the unbiased Kenpom. Ellis was sixth on the list for KPOY last year. Other guys on the list include Brice Johnson, Buddy Hield, Malcolm Brogdon, Georges Niang and so on. With a similar impact to those players I expect Kansas will miss Ellis a great deal this coming year.

Interesting...but also worth noting Ellis went undrafted. Yeah, it could mean he's a great college player but not a pro; but I think it lends credence to
the argument that he isn't/wasn't that good...

[flyingdutchdevil]

No no no. All in good fun.

This discussion in CBB is at all times maddening/hilarious/dumb-founding.

John Calipari, universally known as the OAD King. Aaron/Andrew Harrison #4 and #5 RSCI, to undrafted/2nd round. Or Alex Poythress. Or the Dakari Johnson/Marcus Lee pupu platter. How many people bring them up when talking about Calipari's magic with young talent?
Andrew Wiggins, who I will use to bolster my arguments wherever I can, would probably have been the #1 pick if my grandmother was his coach.
Cheick Diallo could not/would not learn offensive plays. If he had, maybe he would have been drafted higher than 33rd. When Bill Self couldn't get through to him, he benched him. Coaching/player development is a 2-way street.


Don't forget Daniel Orton! Isaiah Briscoe is looking like another bust!

Hey, (nearly) every team has them, including Duke. But I'm not sure when the last time a highly-ranked Duke recruit didn't make it. Kyle Singler (RSCI #6)? Maybe Rasheed (RSCI #13, IIRC)?

Duke has had players not live up to their ranking, but a top-10er becoming a bust hasn't happened in a long time (and hopefully doesn't).

[TexHawk]

I never really knew exactly what to think of Ellis when watching him play.

So I defer to the unbiased Kenpom. Ellis was sixth on the list for KPOY last year. Other guys on the list include Brice Johnson, Buddy Hield, Malcolm Brogdon, Georges Niang and so on. With a similar impact to those players I expect Kansas will miss Ellis a great deal this coming year.

I guess I would ask for data to contrast the fact that in Bill Self's tenure in Lawrence, he has replaced a high-level big man in 2006, 2008, 2009, 2012, and 2014 with 2nd year players: Darrell Arthur, Cole Aldrich, Marcus/Markieff Morris, Thomas Robinson, Jeff Withey, and Perry Ellis. 4 lottery picks, another 1st rounder, and a 2nd rounder still playing in the league. It is certainly possible that Carlton Bragg falls on his face, and each situation is unique, but at some point I would acknowledge a trend.

Btw... speaking of losing very good 17 ppg scorers off of their previous year's team, isn't Duke replacing one too? (Name rhymes with Schmandon Schmingram.)

[flyingdutchdevil]

I guess I would ask for data to contrast the fact that in Bill Self's tenure in Lawrence, he has replaced a high-level big man in 2006, 2008, 2009, 2012, and 2014 with 2nd year players: Darrell Arthur, Cole Aldrich, Marcus/Markieff Morris, Thomas Robinson, Jeff Withey, and Perry Ellis. 4 lottery picks, another 1st rounder, and a 2nd rounder still playing in the league. It is certainly possible that Carlton Bragg falls on his face, and each situation is unique, but at some point I would acknowledge a trend.

Btw... speaking of losing very good 17 ppg scorers off of their previous year's team, isn't Duke replacing one too? (Name rhymes with Schmandon Schmingram.)

Yup. But we're only losing 1; Kansas is losing 2 14+ ppg scorers :D. Ingram's loss will hurt, but the theory is that Tatum can replace Ingram's efficiency. I assume Wayne Selden's loss will be mitigated by Jackson. The question is more around Ellis, which I think a few posters are curious about.

[jimsumner]

Don't forget Daniel Orton! Isaiah Briscoe is looking like another bust!

Hey, (nearly) every team has them, including Duke. But I'm not sure when the last time a highly-ranked Duke recruit didn't make it. Kyle Singler (RSCI #6)? Maybe Rasheed (RSCI #13, IIRC)?

Duke has had players not live up to their ranking, but a top-10er becoming a bust hasn't happened in a long time (and hopefully doesn't).

With all due respect, I'm not sure I'd put Kyle Singler on the didn't-make-it-list.

[English]

I guess I would ask for data to contrast the fact that in Bill Self's tenure in Lawrence, he has replaced a high-level big man in 2006, 2008, 2009, 2012, and 2014 with 2nd year players: Darrell Arthur, Cole Aldrich, Marcus/Markieff Morris, Thomas Robinson, Jeff Withey, and Perry Ellis. 4 lottery picks, another 1st rounder, and a 2nd rounder still playing in the league. It is certainly possible that Carlton Bragg falls on his face, and each situation is unique, but at some point I would acknowledge a trend.

Btw... speaking of losing very good 17 ppg scorers off of their previous year's team, isn't Duke replacing one too? (Name rhymes with Schmandon Schmingram.)

Excuse me for mentioning anything about big man coaching around these parts, but I notice that there was one consistent element of all these players' developments--except the guy TexHawk has dismissed repeatedly over the last 2+ seasons--that headed down to the Dash for his own HC gig: Danny Manning isn't around anymore. I've always given him a tremendous amount of credit for the development of KU's bigs...was that misplaced or is his loss an actual concern for the KU fanbase going forward?

[NSDukeFan]

Excuse me for mentioning anything about big man coaching around these parts, but I notice that there was one consistent element of all these players' developments--except the guy TexHawk has dismissed repeatedly over the last 2+ seasons--that headed down to the Dash for his own HC gig: Danny Manning isn't around anymore. I've always given him a tremendous amount of credit for the development of KU's bigs...was that misplaced or is his loss an actual concern for the KU fanbase going forward?

Shouldn't Kansas not finish first in the Big 12 sometime before the KU fan base gets concerned? That is one impressive streak. (I know it's not the ACC, but it is certainly a real conference)

[Olympic Fan]

A new preseason ranking to look at. Dick Vitale makes his preseason picks on ESPN:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/17823507/duke-blue-devils-lead-vitale-preseason-top-40-teams

Duke No. 1, ahead of No. 2 Kentucky with four ACC teams in the top eight.

It's going to be a deep, deep league.

[BD80]

A new preseason ranking to look at. Dick Vitale makes his preseason picks on ESPN:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/17823507/duke-blue-devils-lead-vitale-preseason-top-40-teams

Duke No. 1, ahead of No. 2 Kentucky with four ACC teams in the top eight.

It's going to be a deep, deep league.

But is it enough? Can we win the B1G/ACC Challenge?

[Olympic Fan]

But is it enough? Can we win the B1G/ACC Challenge?

Well, we still lead the challenge by a wide margin (10-5-2). It's funny how it runs in streaks ... we won the first 10 and haven't won any of the last seven (although we tied twice).

I think the challenge will be important for a number of the middle echelon ACC teams. These are the teams that will finish 10-8, 9-9, 8-10 in the league. To make the NCAA field, these teams will have to post something impressive on their non-conference slate. In several cases, the All-Big Ten Challenge is their only real chance.

Take Pitt. Amazingly easy non-conference schedule (although they will get either Marquette or Michigan in New York) ... their Challenge game with Maryland could be huge.

And Syracuse -- the only time they leave the state of New York pre-conference is a Challenge game at Wisconsin. If they finish 9-9 in the ACC again, that one will be huge.

I would include Clemson, but the Tigers got stuck with Nebraska in Littlejohn ... not much boost there.

Same with Miami ... weak schedule not helped by a home game with Rutgers.

On the other hand, NC State could really need a win at Illinois, while Virginia Tech could use a win at Michigan.

[English]

Well, we still lead the challenge by a wide margin (10-5-2). It's funny how it runs in streaks ... we won the first 10 and haven't won any of the last seven (although we tied twice).

I think the challenge will be important for a number of the middle echelon ACC teams. These are the teams that will finish 10-8, 9-9, 8-10 in the league. To make the NCAA field, these teams will have to post something impressive on their non-conference slate. In several cases, the All-Big Ten Challenge is their only real chance.

Take Pitt. Amazingly easy non-conference schedule (although they will get either Marquette or Michigan in New York) ... their Challenge game with Maryland could be huge.

And Syracuse -- the only time they leave the state of New York pre-conference is a Challenge game at Wisconsin. If they finish 9-9 in the ACC again, that one will be huge.

I would include Clemson, but the Tigers got stuck with Nebraska in Littlejohn ... not much boost there.

Same with Miami ... weak schedule not helped by a home game with Rutgers.

On the other hand, NC State could really need a win at Illinois, while Virginia Tech could use a win at Michigan.

To go one step further, the Committee is likely, fair or not, to look at a 9-9 ACC conference record a bit more leniently if the ACC establishes its dominance as a conference in the Challenge (and pre-season tournaments). I realize the Committee has said this isn't the case in the past, but I call shenanigans. Plus, the conference's respective teams' SOS and (ugh) RPI will be strengthen with strong ACC performance in the Challenge.

[BD80]

... Take Pitt. Amazingly easy non-conference schedule (although they will get either Marquette or Michigan in New York) ... their Challenge game with Maryland could be huge. ...

A few years ago, Pitt v Md in the Big 10 - ACC Challenge would not have sounded so strange. Pitt must've joined their in-state rival in the Big 10.

[DukeTrinity11]

I guess I would ask for data to contrast the fact that in Bill Self's tenure in Lawrence, he has replaced a high-level big man in 2006, 2008, 2009, 2012, and 2014 with 2nd year players: Darrell Arthur, Cole Aldrich, Marcus/Markieff Morris, Thomas Robinson, Jeff Withey, and Perry Ellis. 4 lottery picks, another 1st rounder, and a 2nd rounder still playing in the league. It is certainly possible that Carlton Bragg falls on his face, and each situation is unique, but at some point I would acknowledge a trend.

Btw... speaking of losing very good 17 ppg scorers off of their previous year's team, isn't Duke replacing one too? (Name rhymes with Schmandon Schmingram.)
A KU frontcourt of Bragg, Lucas and Svi simply doesn't compare to Duke's frontcourt of Jefferson, Bolden, Jeter and Giles imo. Duke has the potential top NBA pick overall in 2017, another 2017 potential lottery pick, a potential 2018 1st rounder and a super senior who averaged a double double. This is isn't even a debate.