View Full Version : Picking Winners In The Tourney

03-07-2007, 09:52 AM
When it comes to filling out brackets, I have heard that Ken Pomeroy's system has been the most successful over the past several years. Can anyone explain to me how to compare two teams head to head using his system. Also could someone explain sagarin to me? I have read stuff like: "according to Sagarin, on a neutral court the score would be 84-76" - how do those calculations work?

03-07-2007, 10:27 AM
Pomeroy uses adjusted efficiency numbers on his site, whereas my site linked below uses the raw numbers.

Here is the description from Pomeroy's site (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/stats_explained/)...

To get a prediction of Team A’s OE, multiply their adjusted OE by B’s adjusted DE and divide by the national average which is conveniently around 100.

To get a score prediction, you must multiply the efficiency prediction by the tempo prediction (then divide by 100). It’s complicated and someday I’ll be displaying this information for you. To get a better estimate of the average efficiency or tempo, use the value of the 167th place team.

For what it's worth, here is a page that has the predicted score of the NC State/Duke game (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/Game_Preview_External.asp?hSchedule=791).