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BD80
09-05-2016, 02:59 PM
Nice, short article from Jon Rothstein, lauding this year's Duke team, but singling out Matt Jones as an X-factor.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/observations-dukes-unsung-hero-could-be-key-for-blue-devils-success-this-season/

Also a video commentary that Coach K is the best college basketball coach ever (Wooden #2), and arguably the greatest coach of all time, in any sport.

Also mention of Miami's non-conference schedule. The Hurricanes won't leave the state until conference play.

Bob Green
09-05-2016, 03:21 PM
...but singling out Matt Jones as an X-factor.

Jones, Amile Jefferson and Grayson Allen are going to provide this team experienced leadership. With the talented youngsters added to the mix, the team's ceiling is very high. It is important to look at the situation in that order: experienced leadership followed by talented youngsters.

BandAlum83
09-05-2016, 03:32 PM
Nice, short article from Jon Rothstein, lauding this year's Duke team, but singling out Matt Jones as an X-factor.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/observations-dukes-unsung-hero-could-be-key-for-blue-devils-success-this-season/

Also a video commentary that Coach K is the best college basketball coach ever (Wooden #2), and arguably the greatest coach of all time, in any sport.

Also mention of Miami's non-conference schedule. The Hurricanes won't leave the state until conference play.


There may be better scorers or potential pro prospects on the Blue Devils' roster next season, but Jones' selflessness, defensive attributes and having the knack to make timely 3-point shots could ultimately allow him to earn a key role on a team that will be appointment television in every game it plays next season.

Even without over-hyped tripping scandals, I would add.

Ima Facultiwyfe
09-05-2016, 03:40 PM
Can't wait to see Matt in his really big breakout year. Count on it. It's gonna happen.
Love, Ima

gurufrisbee
09-05-2016, 03:41 PM
Matt should be the best 8th man in the country!

slower
09-05-2016, 03:45 PM
As long as he's not bringing the ball up the court regularly, I'm not worried about him being a starter. However, I still remember all the angst from previous seasons when he and Amile on the court together constituted Duke's offensive lineup of death (and not in a good way). None of us knows anything at this point, of course, but I have a hard time seeing Matt cutting TOO much into Luke and Frank's PT. Personally, I think Frank is flying WAY under the radar at this point. But again, Matt is a seasoned veteran and Frank hasn't played one second of college ball. And Kennard is just an offensive savant. Defensively, of course, Matt is the man.

Can't wait for this season to start! Time is moving in slow motion.

Edouble
09-05-2016, 04:49 PM
Jones, Amile Jefferson and Grayson Allen are going to provide this team experienced leadership. With the talented youngsters added to the mix, the team's ceiling is very high. It is important to look at the situation in that order: experienced leadership followed by talented youngsters.

Perhaps, perhaps not.

The 2015 team gelled in the exact opposite manner. The veterans adjusted their roles to a team that was built on the significant strengths of the first year players.

Newton_14
09-05-2016, 09:30 PM
Matt should be the best 8th man in the country!
Good luck with that mindset. Bob Green and I had this discussion at the FB game Sat Night. The bottom line is that the 3 Captains are going to be the leaders of this team and play lots of minutes. Folks might as well get that in their heads cause it is going to happen. Matt is no more going to be the 8th man than I am.

FerryFor50
09-05-2016, 09:50 PM
Good luck with that mindset. Bob Green and I had this discussion at the FB game Sat Night. The bottom line is that the 3 Captains are going to be the leaders of this team and play lots of minutes. Folks might as well get that in their heads cause it is going to happen. Matt is no more going to be the 8th man than I am.

+1

If you are looking for precedent for this, see Tyler Thornton.

OldPhiKap
09-05-2016, 10:07 PM
Good luck with that mindset. Bob Green and I had this discussion at the FB game Sat Night. The bottom line is that the 3 Captains are going to be the leaders of this team and play lots of minutes. Folks might as well get that in their heads cause it is going to happen. Matt is no more going to be the 8th man than I am.

Yup. Especially early in the season. If a young blood can beat him out for the minutes as the season goes on, good luck to them. K loves Matt and his defense. So do I.

gurufrisbee
09-05-2016, 10:27 PM
Good luck with that mindset. Bob Green and I had this discussion at the FB game Sat Night. The bottom line is that the 3 Captains are going to be the leaders of this team and play lots of minutes. Folks might as well get that in their heads cause it is going to happen. Matt is no more going to be the 8th man than I am.

That might happen. But Matt Jones isn't even the 8th most talented basketball player on this team. Being the 8th man on the best team in the country isn't an insult, it's a compliment.


+1

If you are looking for precedent for this, see Tyler Thornton.

Absolutely the nightmare I'm worried about.

Kedsy
09-05-2016, 11:01 PM
Absolutely the nightmare I'm worried about.

Doesn't sound like a compliment.

BD80
09-05-2016, 11:03 PM
Doesn't sound like a compliment.

Matt's the complement ...

Troublemaker
09-06-2016, 01:11 AM
That might happen. But Matt Jones isn't even the 8th most talented basketball player on this team.

Even if that were true, I still expect him to be the 5th or 6th best player on the team, and 5th or 6th most valuable. Raw talent isn't everything. I think Matt's going to shoot >40% on threes again, and I think he'll play great defense. Ask any basketball stat nerd and they will tell you that a 3-and-D player like Matt is extremely valuable.

So yes, I think Matt Jones will either be the 5th starter or the 6th-man.

But what I'm hoping Coach K will do, however, is render 6th, 7th, 8th-man designations quaint and moot by playing two units like he did in the Olympics, with Grayson in Durant's role of playing with both units.

My two units:
(1) Allen-Kennard-Tatum-Jefferson-Bolden
(2) Jackson-Allen-Jones-Giles-Jeter

Grayson does more distributing with the 1st unit. He goes into scoring mode with the 2nd unit.

gep
09-06-2016, 01:58 AM
Even if that were true, I still expect him to be the 5th or 6th best player on the team, and 5th or 6th most valuable. Raw talent isn't everything. I think Matt's going to shoot >40% on threes again, and I think he'll play great defense. Ask any basketball stat nerd and they will tell you that a 3-and-D player like Matt is extremely valuable.

So yes, I think Matt Jones will either be the 5th starter or the 6th-man.

But what I'm hoping Coach K will do, however, is render 6th, 7th, 8th-man designations quaint and moot by playing two units like he did in the Olympics, with Grayson in Durant's role of playing with both units.

My two units:
(1) Allen-Kennard-Tatum-Jefferson-Bolden
(2) Jackson-Allen-Jones-Giles-Jeter

Grayson does more distributing with the 1st unit. He goes into scoring mode with the 2nd unit.

So... Maybe not a recruiting advantage... But the olympics provided an "experience" advantage. GO DUKE!!!

budwom
09-06-2016, 08:22 AM
People seem to forget that Matt was hobbled much of last season. If you doubt his value (or wonder why K likes him) watch the
Wisconsin champeenship game again.

As for who starts this year, I've decided to leave that to K....but Matt's going to be playing a whole lot.

flyingdutchdevil
09-06-2016, 08:41 AM
Even if that were true, I still expect him to be the 5th or 6th best player on the team, and 5th or 6th most valuable. Raw talent isn't everything. I think Matt's going to shoot >40% on threes again, and I think he'll play great defense. Ask any basketball stat nerd and they will tell you that a 3-and-D player like Matt is extremely valuable.

So yes, I think Matt Jones will either be the 5th starter or the 6th-man.

But what I'm hoping Coach K will do, however, is render 6th, 7th, 8th-man designations quaint and moot by playing two units like he did in the Olympics, with Grayson in Durant's role of playing with both units.

My two units:
(1) Allen-Kennard-Tatum-Jefferson-Bolden
(2) Jackson-Allen-Jones-Giles-Jeter

Grayson does more distributing with the 1st unit. He goes into scoring mode with the 2nd unit.

Technically, what you have listed is a 9-man rotation, which Coach K just won't play, especially in ACC play. I think Coach K takes a lot from the Olympics, but I doubt rotations will be one of them. The 10th best man on Team USA would often be the best player on the opposing team, and that isn't likely to be the case in ACC play.

I'm convinced on the 8-man rotation, with Jones absolutely NOT being the 8th man (I think we agree on that). I'm still convinced that Matt is going to start, just to balance the offense/defense on the team. Also, Matt doesn't need the ball to be effective, unlike Grayson, Tatum, and Kennard (no idea about Giles yet). I see Matt finishing the year in top 4 in minutes. His leadership, 3pt shooting, defense, and intangibles are just going to be invaluable to this team.

Ichabod Drain
09-06-2016, 08:47 AM
Matt is a role player (a very good one in my opinion.) Last year he didn't really have an option to be a role player. With the extremely short bench we had everyone had to try and do a little bit of everything for us just to win games. Next year is going to be different. Matt can focus on maximizing his strengths and utilizing his leadership. I believe Matt is the one guard that isn't going to be asked to run the point in some way next year, which is great because that's not something he's going to excel at. If he can focus on being that 3&D player that is so coveted in basketball these days I think that's where he can really help this team.

flyingdutchdevil
09-06-2016, 08:50 AM
Matt is a role player (a very good one in my opinion.) Last year he didn't really have an option to be a role player. With the extremely short bench we had everyone had to try and do a little bit of everything for us just to win games. Next year is going to be different. Matt can focus on maximizing his strengths and utilizing his leadership. I believe Matt is the one guard that isn't going to be asked to run the point in some way next year, which is great because that's not something he's going to excel at. If he can focus on being that 3&D player that is so coveted in basketball these days I think that's where he can really help this team.

This is a great point. Matt Jones will never be the focus on of the offense, and that's okay. Like you said, I really hope it's 3&D for him and not 3&D&Driving-to-the-Hoop...

sagegrouse
09-06-2016, 08:56 AM
This is a great point. Matt Jones will never be the focus on of the offense, and that's okay. Like you said, I really hope it's 3&D for him and not 3&D&Driving-to-the-Hoop...

I look forward to great improvement in Matt's "finishing around the rim," but OTOH, maybe not taking it to the hoop that often.

Steven43
09-06-2016, 09:08 AM
Matt should be the best 8th man in the country!
Clever. Not sure you meant it to be funny, but I got a chuckle out of it. It's preseason, we can afford a little joking around before the seriousness of what looks to be a very intense season ensues.

I like Matt as a representative of the University and Duke Basketball. Class act all the way. I've got my fingers crossed that he's made the improvements in ballhandling and shooting that will take him to the next level. Wishing you all the best, Matt.

Steven43
09-06-2016, 09:26 AM
My two units:
(1) Allen-Kennard-Tatum-Jefferson-Bolden
(2) Jackson-Allen-Jones-Giles-Jeter

Grayson does more distributing with the 1st unit. He goes into scoring mode with the 2nd unit.
My goodness that is an insane amount of talent. And you did not even mention top-40 national recruit, 6'10" Javin DeLaurier, a player who many schools would be showcasing to their fans as the crown jewel of their recruiting class. Wow.

GGLC
09-06-2016, 09:29 AM
+1

If you are looking for precedent for this, see Tyler Thornton.

Yup. And Matt is a much better player than Tyler was, gurufrisbee's animus notwithstanding.

elvis14
09-06-2016, 09:49 AM
How Matt Jones will be used is a really interesting discussion topic. First of all, he's a senior captain and those guys generally get playing time for Coach K. But he's a role player, a 3&D guy and a good one at that. I don't normally see role players as captains but the other guys that would be Sr and Jr's this year (Parker, Oakfor, Jones, Winslow) are playing in the NBA. From everything I've seen over the last several years he's a great kid and a great teammate.

Someone brought up Tyler Thornton, and my view of Matt in some ways reflects what I thought about Tyler. I hope I don't offend anyone by saying this but, I see Matt's playing time as a measuring stick for how well others are playing and how high the ceiling for this team will be. The less playing time Matt gets, the higher the ceiling and the more playing time he gets, the lower the ceiling. This is exactly the way it was with Tyler as well. I don't mean to disparage Matt by saying that it's just that other players, such as Luke, have more potential and more complete offensive games. So if Luke is hitting his 3's this year, and he's playing good defense in addition to dynamic offensive skills he showed last year, then we would be better as a team having Luke play more and Matt play less. I'm using Luke as an example here but there are several players, Luke, Tatum, Allen, Jackson who have very high ceilings and would bring the team to a higher level of play than Matt IF they can provide the 3&D (especially the D) similar to Matt. Again, this only holds true if these guys can play great defense like Matt can when he's healthy.

But to put things in perspective, if Matt earns playing time essentially because he's a much better defender than the other guys then our teams ceiling is national championship. If Matt earns less playing time because the other guys have improved their defense enough to keep Matt on the bench, our teams ceiling is national championship. I'm always happy when we have a team that has a real shot. What a beautiful thing. I'm going to support Matt and the others and I think they are going to give us a great season to watch.

Kedsy
09-06-2016, 10:04 AM
Matt Jones has had 53 career starts at Duke. In the past 20 years before this coming season, Duke has had 26 players entering a season with 50 or more career starts. Of those, 22 either started every game they played that season* or all the games except one (the exceptions: 2015 Rasheed Sulaimon (0/20); 2009 Greg Paulus (5/36); 1998 Ricky Price (1/21); and 1997 Jeff Capel (18/33)).

* -- Amile Jefferson had 59 career starts going into last season, but got injured. He started all 9 games that he played, so I counted him.

For completeness, in the 20 year timeframe, Duke also had 10 players going into a season with 40 or more career starts. Seven of the 10 started all or all but one of the games they played (the exceptions: 2012 Miles Plumlee (16/34); 2009 Lance Thomas (16/37); 1997 Ricky Price (11/33)).

So, in the past 20 years, 85% of Duke players entering a season with 50 or more starts have been undisputed starters that season, and 81% of Duke players entering a season with 40 or more starts have been undisputed starters that season.

Of the exceptions, 1997 Jeff Capel started only half the games but was 3rd on the team in minutes. 2009 Lance Thomas was 5th on the team in minutes and 2009 Greg Paulus was 6th. 1997 Ricky Price was 5th on the team in minutes. 2015 Rasheed Sulaimon was 7th on the team in minutes and he was only on the team for half the season. 2012 Miles Plumlee was 7th on the team in minutes. Four of these seven exceptions started more than 10 games. Three of them started more than 15 games.

My conclusion is it's not a lock that Matt starts this season, but the odds are pretty darn good. If he's not the undisputed starter, he'll still almost certainly play a lot of minutes. Very unlikely he'll be the 8th man.

Troublemaker
09-06-2016, 10:11 AM
Technically, what you have listed is a 9-man rotation, which Coach K just won't play

I've written this before, but Coach K has already done something unprecedented this season, which was to fill all 13 scholarships with recruited players. One might think a roster filled to the brim with scholarship players would exert lengthening pressure on the rotation. That would be the source of my hope.

That said, for many Duke fans, I would recommend that they go ahead and expect an 8-man rotation and not allow themselves to be disappointed if Coach doesn't go deeper. For me, I roll with the punches and can shrug off when Coach doesn't use my preferred rotation, so I'll go ahead and hope.

flyingdutchdevil
09-06-2016, 10:16 AM
I've written this before, but Coach K has already done something unprecedented this season, which was to fill all 13 scholarships with recruited players. One might think a roster filled to the brim with scholarship players would exert lengthening pressure on the rotation. That would be the source of my hope.

That said, for many Duke fans, I would recommend that they go ahead and expect an 8-man rotation and not allow themselves to be disappointed. For me, I roll with the punches and can shrug off when Coach doesn't use my preferred rotation, so I'll go ahead and hope.

Fair enough. I think we likely have a different outlook on life: I am a glass half-empty kinda guy. Which is why me talking about cutting down the nets in April is so shocking to me!

I would love to see a 9-man rotation, as it means Jeter has improved so significantly that he can compete with Giles, Jefferson, and Bolden minutes. It also means that the drop-off from Grayson to the rest of the guards isn't that great.

But we'll see - Coach K loooooves giving his best players plenty of minutes.

budwom
09-06-2016, 10:21 AM
I've written this before, but Coach K has already done something unprecedented this season, which was to fill all 13 scholarships with recruited players. One might think a roster filled to the brim with scholarship players would exert lengthening pressure on the rotation. That would be the source of my hope.

That said, for many Duke fans, I would recommend that they go ahead and expect an 8-man rotation and not allow themselves to be disappointed if Coach doesn't go deeper. For me, I roll with the punches and can shrug off when Coach doesn't use my preferred rotation, so I'll go ahead and hope.

Well, of those 13, three are almost certainly out of the rotation sweepstakes: Obi, Vrank and White...so now you're down to 10, and barring injury I think DeLaurier (fine prospect) is out was well.

I'm expecting 8.5 to 9 guys in the rotation, the obvious logjam being four guys at the two big guy spots...again, barring injury, Jefferson and Giles are locks,
Jeter and Bolden battling it out for playing time along with the other seven guys (Giles, Jefferson, Tatum, Jones, Kennard, Jackson and Allen)...

dukelifer
09-06-2016, 10:29 AM
Well, of those 13, three are almost certainly out of the rotation sweepstakes: Obi, Vrank and White...so now you're down to 10, and barring injury I think DeLaurier (fine prospect) is out was well.

I'm expecting 8.5 to 9 guys in the rotation, the obvious logjam being four guys at the two big guy spots...again, barring injury, Jefferson and Giles are locks,
Jeter and Bolden battling it out for playing time along with the other seven guys (Giles, Jefferson, Tatum, Jones, Kennard, Jackson and Allen)...

I have a sneaking suspicion that DeLaurier will be among the best defenders on the team and will find a way to get on the floor. Injury is a big concern on this team. Giles and Jefferson are no locks for a complete season. Will be interesting to watch this team develop.

Troublemaker
09-06-2016, 10:31 AM
My goodness that is an insane amount of talent. And you did not even mention top-40 national recruit, 6'10" Javin DeLaurier, a player who many schools would be showcasing to their fans as the crown jewel of their recruiting class. Wow.

Random prediction: At some point this season, Coach K will utter the words, "We have 9 starters."

budwom
09-06-2016, 10:32 AM
I have a sneaking suspicion that DeLaurier will be among the best defenders on the team and will find a way to get on the floor. Injury is a big concern on this team. Giles and Jefferson are no locks for a complete season. Will be interesting to watch this team develop.

yeah, that's why I noted "barring injury" above...we're always a metatarsal away from needing another big guy...he's a really good prospect.

COYS
09-06-2016, 10:54 AM
How Matt Jones will be used is a really interesting discussion topic. First of all, he's a senior captain and those guys generally get playing time for Coach K. But he's a role player, a 3&D guy and a good one at that. I don't normally see role players as captains but the other guys that would be Sr and Jr's this year (Parker, Oakfor, Jones, Winslow) are playing in the NBA. From everything I've seen over the last several years he's a great kid and a great teammate.

Someone brought up Tyler Thornton, and my view of Matt in some ways reflects what I thought about Tyler. I hope I don't offend anyone by saying this but, I see Matt's playing time as a measuring stick for how well others are playing and how high the ceiling for this team will be. The less playing time Matt gets, the higher the ceiling and the more playing time he gets, the lower the ceiling. This is exactly the way it was with Tyler as well. I don't mean to disparage Matt by saying that it's just that other players, such as Luke, have more potential and more complete offensive games. So if Luke is hitting his 3's this year, and he's playing good defense in addition to dynamic offensive skills he showed last year, then we would be better as a team having Luke play more and Matt play less. I'm using Luke as an example here but there are several players, Luke, Tatum, Allen, Jackson who have very high ceilings and would bring the team to a higher level of play than Matt IF they can provide the 3&D (especially the D) similar to Matt. Again, this only holds true if these guys can play great defense like Matt can when he's healthy.

But to put things in perspective, if Matt earns playing time essentially because he's a much better defender than the other guys then our teams ceiling is national championship. If Matt earns less playing time because the other guys have improved their defense enough to keep Matt on the bench, our teams ceiling is national championship. I'm always happy when we have a team that has a real shot. What a beautiful thing. I'm going to support Matt and the others and I think they are going to give us a great season to watch.

I totally understand your logic on this, and you are very careful to frame your argument in a way that in no way takes away from Matt's value to the team. I do, however, think that even WITH improvement/unexpected contributions from Luke and Frank, Matt still has a unique role that will earn him many minutes. In a way that is not unlike 14-15. He actually improves as an offensive threat the less he has to touch the ball outside of catch and shoot situations. We have such a bevy of ball dominant guards that I just see Matt's ability to spot up and hit shots as essential to spacing this year. If Luke improves as much as I hope and if Frank comes in ready to contribute from day one, I think we'll just see more small lineups with three of our four guards on the floor at once. We often talk about Matt's defense in 2015 as a reason he started, but I think he had an even bigger effect on offense, where he dramatically improved our spacing despite not being a dynamic offensive player. The Gonzaga Elite Eight game is a great example. The fact that he isn't ball dominant and in fact becomes more valuable on offense the less he touches the ball means that I feel like his skill set is tailor made to work with a team such as this year's Duke team when we have so much ball dominant offensive talent.

CDu
09-06-2016, 11:14 AM
I agree with those that are saying that Matt Jones is not among our 8 most talented players (in fact, it is possible he is as low as 10th).

However, I also agree with those noting the three very important traits that often get overlooked in assessing playing time/lineup composition, all of which are things that Matt Jones has in his favor:
1. Experience: Coach K values this. A lot. Jones is basically on par with Amile Jefferson (in terms of minutes and games played) as the most experienced player on Duke's roster, and he's by far the most experienced perimeter player on the team.
2. Defense: Jones is probably the best perimeter defender on the team.
3. Off-ball ability: Jones doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective on offense. In fact, he's probably best suited to NOT have the ball in his hands on offense.

For these three reasons, I think Matt Jones will play a lot. In fact, it is a big part of why Matt Jones HAS played a lot to this point (which, as Kedsy notes, is a very strong predictor of future playing time).

With at least two of the quartet of Allen, Jackson, Kennard, and Tatum on the floor at all times, we don't need the third wing to be a ball-dominant player. Instead, having a better defender and spotup shooter makes a ton of sense. And that's where Jones fits in.

flyingdutchdevil
09-06-2016, 11:23 AM
I agree with those that are saying that Matt Jones is not among our 8 most talented players (in fact, it is possible he is as low as 10th).

However, I also agree with those noting the three very important traits that often get overlooked in assessing playing time/lineup composition, all of which are things that Matt Jones has in his favor:
1. Experience: Coach K values this. A lot. Jones is basically on par with Amile Jefferson (in terms of minutes and games played) as the most experienced player on Duke's roster, and he's by far the most experienced perimeter player on the team.
2. Defense: Jones is probably the best perimeter defender on the team.
3. Off-ball ability: Jones doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective on offense. In fact, he's probably best suited to NOT have the ball in his hands on offense.

For these three reasons, I think Matt Jones will play a lot. In fact, it is a big part of why Matt Jones HAS played a lot to this point (which, as Kedsy notes, is a very strong predictor of future playing time).

With at least two of the quartet of Allen, Jackson, Kennard, and Tatum on the floor at all times, we don't need the third wing to be a ball-dominant player. Instead, having a better defender and spotup shooter makes a ton of sense. And that's where Jones fits in.

Agree with everything, except that Matt Jones isn't one of the 8 most talented players. I disagree with this. I agree with, "Matt Jones is not among our 8 most potential-filled players (in fact, it is possible he is as low as 10th)." That is a statement that I agree with completely.

But I view talent as a snapshot in time, not a predictor of future value. Ask coaches if they would rather have a freshman Bolden or a 5-year senior Jefferson for only this year, and I'd be shocked if Jefferson didn't get the overwhelming number of votes. Hence, I think year, Jefferson is more talented than Bolden, but without question Bolden has significantly more potential (and the NBA draft will prove that). I view it similarly with Matt, as I think senior Matt > freshman Jackson. Junior Grayson is obviously > everyone else, and I think sophomore Kennard may or may not equal senior Jones (depends on whether Kennard is more consistent with his 3pt shot and has improved on D).

Bottomline - Matt Jones is talented for the reasons that you provided above.

CDu
09-06-2016, 11:36 AM
Agree with everything, except that Matt Jones isn't one of the 8 most talented players. I disagree with this. I agree with, "Matt Jones is not among our 8 most potential-filled players (in fact, it is possible he is as low as 10th)." That is a statement that I agree with completely.

But I view talent as a snapshot in time, not a predictor of future value. Ask coaches if they would rather have a freshman Bolden or a 5-year senior Jefferson for only this year, and I'd be shocked if Jefferson didn't get the overwhelming number of votes. Hence, I think year, Jefferson is more talented than Bolden, but without question Bolden has significantly more potential (and the NBA draft will prove that). I view it similarly with Matt, as I think senior Matt > freshman Jackson. Junior Grayson is obviously > everyone else, and I think sophomore Kennard may or may not equal senior Jones (depends on whether Kennard is more consistent with his 3pt shot and has improved on D).

Bottomline - Matt Jones is talented for the reasons that you provided above.

Yeah, that's a very fair distinction that I glossed over above. In terms of "raw talent", Matt Jones is probably not among the top 8 (and may be as low as 10th). In terms of realized talent, I agree that he's far higher.

For whatever reason, "talent" always gets truncated to potential/athleticism/offensive skills. Aside from 3pt shooting, Jones is going to be undervalued in this sense. But in terms of current on-court play, I think he's ahead of at least a few (if not more) of those guys in the top 10.

elvis14
09-06-2016, 11:40 AM
I totally understand your logic on this, and you are very careful to frame your argument in a way that in no way takes away from Matt's value to the team. I do, however, think that even WITH improvement/unexpected contributions from Luke and Frank, Matt still has a unique role that will earn him many minutes. In a way that is not unlike 14-15. He actually improves as an offensive threat the less he has to touch the ball outside of catch and shoot situations. We have such a bevy of ball dominant guards that I just see Matt's ability to spot up and hit shots as essential to spacing this year. If Luke improves as much as I hope and if Frank comes in ready to contribute from day one, I think we'll just see more small lineups with three of our four guards on the floor at once. We often talk about Matt's defense in 2015 as a reason he started, but I think he had an even bigger effect on offense, where he dramatically improved our spacing despite not being a dynamic offensive player. The Gonzaga Elite Eight game is a great example. The fact that he isn't ball dominant and in fact becomes more valuable on offense the less he touches the ball means that I feel like his skill set is tailor made to work with a team such as this year's Duke team when we have so much ball dominant offensive talent.

You make a really valid point here. Spacing on offense is crucial, especially if this team has games where they play inside out. Having a shooter who consistently spots up in the right place at the right time to help spread the floor, keep the defense honest and punish the defense for doubling down on our bigs is important. One of the other things that could be great about this team is our ability to play big or small and basically creating what ever matchup is needed based on out opponent. And as you've pointed out, Matt could be an important small ball player.

GGLC
09-06-2016, 11:58 AM
I know I've said this before, but saying it always makes me smile: I'm pretty sure Sam Dekker still has nightmares about Matt's defense on him in the national championship game. :)

flyingdutchdevil
09-06-2016, 11:59 AM
I know I've said this before, but saying it always makes me smile: I'm pretty sure Sam Dekker still has nightmares about Matt's defense on him in the national championship game. :)

Moreso than nightmares about Grayson demolishing Dekker's defense? I dunno...

GGLC
09-06-2016, 12:13 PM
Moreso than nightmares about Grayson demolishing Dekker's defense? I dunno...

You should rewatch the game. (The answer is "yes," imo...but really, any excuse to relive that one is a good excuse.)

Lunchab1es
09-06-2016, 12:38 PM
I've written this before, but Coach K has already done something unprecedented this season, which was to fill all 13 scholarships with recruited players. One might think a roster filled to the brim with scholarship players would exert lengthening pressure on the rotation.

One great thing about this point, which doesn't get as much hype with all of the starter/minutes debates, is just how good that is going to make our practices and by extension, player improvement. Compare this to last year where we had trouble supporting a 5 on 5 scrimmage. Personally I'm hoping that our practices are tougher than most of our games. Especially if Grayson's fire replicates some Hurley/Laettner-esque intrasquad competitiveness. Maybe this year everyone will agree players will improve in practice, regardless of whether or not they get garbage time game minutes :P

GGLC
09-06-2016, 01:05 PM
One great thing about this point, which doesn't get as much hype with all of the starter/minutes debates, is just how good that is going to make our practices and by extension, player improvement. Compare this to last year where we had trouble supporting a 5 on 5 scrimmage. Personally I'm hoping that our practices are tougher than most of our games. Especially if Grayson's fire replicates some Hurley/Laettner-esque intrasquad competitiveness. Maybe this year everyone will agree players will improve in practice, regardless of whether or not they get garbage time game minutes :P

The fact that Seth Curry essentially didn't practice his senior season because of injury is still one of the craziest things.

BD80
09-06-2016, 01:21 PM
I see Matt and Amile starting, to set the tone. We will be ridiculously talented on offense, but, from the very start, Coach K will be preaching that defense wins championships.

Amile is key because of his communication on defense from the front line, but I think Matt will also be critical in communicating with so many young, talented players rotating on the floor.

Matt may come out early, but will be in at crunch time, and for small ball. To get playing time, other players will have to show they are willing to "play like Matt."

I see players coming out for "coaching" on the sidelines when they fail to make rotations, or don't box out, or fail to make a hustle play. And I mean everybody. Grayson better be ready to play on both ends on the floor, or he will be learning some lessons on the sidelines - which will resonate with the rest of the team. EVERYBODY that steps out onto that court with a Duke jersey on better be ready to play balls to the wall defense the entire time they are on the court.

flyingdutchdevil
09-06-2016, 01:27 PM
I see Matt and Amile starting, to set the tone. We will be ridiculously talented on offense, but, from the very start, Coach K will be preaching that defense wins championships.

Amile is key because of his communication on defense from the front line, but I think Matt will also be critical in communicating with so many young, talented players rotating on the floor.

Matt may come out early, but will be in at crunch time, and for small ball. To get playing time, other players will have to show they are willing to "play like Matt."

I see players coming out for "coaching" on the sidelines when they fail to make rotations, or don't box out, or fail to make a hustle play. And I mean everybody. Grayson better be ready to play on both ends on the floor, or he will be learning some lessons on the sidelines - which will resonate with the rest of the team. EVERYBODY that steps out onto that court with a Duke jersey on better be ready to play balls to the wall defense the entire time they are on the court.

I think Amile is going to surprise plenty of people this year. I'll be shocked if Matt averages more than 10ppg, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Amile get at least 10 (and maybe even upwards of 12). Amile will get plenty of offensive opportunities, and with so much of the defensive focus on boxing Giles out (who is supposedly one of the best offensive rebounders in recent years), Amile can probably get 2-3 baskets a game on those offensive putbacks.

IMO, some of the offense will go through Amile (unlike Matt), who should be able to either overpower or outwork his opponent. Had Amile used up his eligibility and Grayson gone pro (two things that were very likely to happen in the beginning of the year), Duke is likely to be the #1 team in the country (a line-up of Jackson, Jones, Tatum, Giles, and Bolden is frightening). Add in Amile, and it's a no brainer. And in Grayson, and it's not fair.

GGLC
09-06-2016, 02:06 PM
I'm a little worried that people are expecting too much out of Frank Jackson this year. He's not a Kyrie-level talent (few people are) and is really, really unlikely to have a Tyus-level impact (few people do). Based on his scouting reports, I think the chances of him being a solid rotation piece along the lines of Derryck Thornton (though obviously with a different skillset) are much higher than the chances of him being a high-impact star in his first (and, yes, likely only) season, even relative to our increased depth.

flyingdutchdevil
09-06-2016, 02:32 PM
I'm a little worried that people are expecting too much out of Frank Jackson this year. He's not a Kyrie-level talent (few people are) and is really, really unlikely to have a Tyus-level impact (few people do). Based on his scouting reports, I think the chances of him being a solid rotation piece along the lines of Derryck Thornton (though obviously with a different skillset) are much higher than the chances of him being a high-impact star in his first (and, yes, likely only) season, even relative to our increased depth.

I'm not so sure that you're correct about people expecting too much out of FJ this year. I don't think anyone expects him to be Kyrie-esque or even Tyus Jones-esque, but they are expecting him to be part of the rotation. He's not on the same level as Grayson, Giles, Tatum, or Amile, but he may have similar impact to Jones or Kennard (tbd).

He's one of the most athletic players in the country along with Josh Jackson and Miles Bridge. I'm expecting big things from FJ, just not necessarily this year (either as a sophomore or in the NBA).

Saratoga2
09-06-2016, 02:50 PM
I look forward to great improvement in Matt's "finishing around the rim," but OTOH, maybe not taking it to the hoop that often.

Ah So, Memories of last year. 3 and D are his strengths.

GGLC
09-06-2016, 03:11 PM
I'm not so sure that you're correct about people expecting too much out of FJ this year. I don't think anyone expects him to be Kyrie-esque or even Tyus Jones-esque, but they are expecting him to be part of the rotation. He's not on the same level as Grayson, Giles, Tatum, or Amile, but he may have similar impact to Jones or Kennard (tbd).

He's one of the most athletic players in the country along with Josh Jackson and Miles Bridge. I'm expecting big things from FJ, just not necessarily this year (either as a sophomore or in the NBA).

Having "similar impact to Jones and Kennard" is the sort of expectation I'm talking about -- although, to be fair, it's on the lower end; others appear to think he's a good bet to be in the starting lineup by midseason. I think if Jackson has a similar impact to Jones and Kennard this season, then either he's much more ready than I think or else Jones and Kennard are underperforming.

Let's hope for the former!

Ichabod Drain
09-06-2016, 03:36 PM
My guess (and that's all it is) about Frank Jackson's role/impact next year is that it will be somewhere in the realm of Grayson Allen's post-Sulaimon freshman year. Maybe just slightly more consistent.

yancem
09-06-2016, 03:53 PM
I totally understand your logic on this, and you are very careful to frame your argument in a way that in no way takes away from Matt's value to the team. I do, however, think that even WITH improvement/unexpected contributions from Luke and Frank, Matt still has a unique role that will earn him many minutes. In a way that is not unlike 14-15. He actually improves as an offensive threat the less he has to touch the ball outside of catch and shoot situations. We have such a bevy of ball dominant guards that I just see Matt's ability to spot up and hit shots as essential to spacing this year. If Luke improves as much as I hope and if Frank comes in ready to contribute from day one, I think we'll just see more small lineups with three of our four guards on the floor at once. We often talk about Matt's defense in 2015 as a reason he started, but I think he had an even bigger effect on offense, where he dramatically improved our spacing despite not being a dynamic offensive player. The Gonzaga Elite Eight game is a great example. The fact that he isn't ball dominant and in fact becomes more valuable on offense the less he touches the ball means that I feel like his skill set is tailor made to work with a team such as this year's Duke team when we have so much ball dominant offensive talent.

Kennard's ability to be a better catch and shoot player will be interesting to watch. Unlike Jones, Kennard seems to need the ball more to find a rhythm. In fact I wonder if part of the reason that Kennard didn't live up to the "great shooter" expectation last year was in part to the lack of consistent touches he received in some games? If he can find a way to get hot with fewer touches, that may take some minutes away from Jones but if not, his minutes will be more to the detriment of Jackson.

Troublemaker
09-06-2016, 03:57 PM
I'm expecting 8.5 to 9 guys in the rotation, the obvious logjam being four guys at the two big guy spots...again, barring injury, Jefferson and Giles are locks, Jeter and Bolden battling it out for playing time along with the other seven guys (Giles, Jefferson, Tatum, Jones, Kennard, Jackson and Allen)...

At a lot of schools, that wouldn't be a logjam but just their standard practice of rotating 4 bigs at 2 spots. That's how UNC plays, and how Duke played in 2010. I'm hoping to see all 4 bigs in the rotation this season.


I look forward to great improvement in Matt's "finishing around the rim," but OTOH, maybe not taking it to the hoop that often.

If Matt has a quicker release this season, something he said he was working on in his "Summer Grind" video, that by itself will lower the amount of times he'll have to drive because he'll be shooting over the closeouts instead.

Matt's development of his 3-pt shot has been very nice. From shooting 14.3% as a frosh, to 37.6% on 2.8 attempts/g as a soph, to 41.5% on 5.2 attempts/g as a junior. He will probably play less as a senior (down from 32 mpg as a junior) but I can see his attempts remaining the same or even going up if he has a quicker release, and maybe his percentage kicks up a little bit further, too, to 43% or something. Matt's going to be one of the most dangerous 3-pt shooters in the conference if improvement continues.

Kedsy
09-06-2016, 04:11 PM
At a lot of schools, that wouldn't be a logjam but just their standard practice of rotating 4 bigs at 2 spots. That's how UNC plays, and how Duke played in 2010. I'm hoping to see all 4 bigs in the rotation this season.

I wonder if we would have played four bigs in 2010 if we'd had five available perimeter players? My guess is we wouldn't have. Kyle Singler could have easily played some PF (eliminating the need for a 4th big) if we hadn't needed him for 36 mpg at SF.

budwom
09-06-2016, 04:21 PM
At a lot of schools, that wouldn't be a logjam but just their standard practice of rotating 4 bigs at 2 spots. That's how UNC plays, and how Duke played in 2010. I'm hoping to see all 4 bigs in the rotation this season.


Yes, I'd love to see all four in the rotation, expect to see at least three and a half...

yancem
09-06-2016, 04:26 PM
I wonder if we would have played four bigs in 2010 if we'd had five available perimeter players? My guess is we wouldn't have. Kyle Singler could have easily played some PF (eliminating the need for a 4th big) if we hadn't needed him for 36 mpg at SF.

But if Singler played minutes at the 4 taking one of the Plumlee's minutes, wouldn't that still be 4 bigs getting minutes? Maybe I'm splitting hairs but Singler played mostly at the 4 and 5 his preview 2 years and I remember there being some hand wringing about his ability to slide down to the 3 full time, at least defensively. I agree that being short handed at the guard spots forced Duke to play bigger lineups which in turn meant more bigs got minutes but I don't think that Singler playing the 4 is going small like Winslow playing the 4 or even Singler playing the 5. In other words, even if Duke had another guard in 2010, we still would have played 4 bigs, just maybe a different 4 bigs. Also for the support of my argument, Singler was listed as 6'8", 230lbs and Thomas was listed as 6'8", 225 lbs.

flyingdutchdevil
09-06-2016, 04:57 PM
But if Singler played minutes at the 4 taking one of the Plumlee's minutes, wouldn't that still be 4 bigs getting minutes? Maybe I'm splitting hairs but Singler played mostly at the 4 and 5 his preview 2 years and I remember there being some hand wringing about his ability to slide down to the 3 full time, at least defensively. I agree that being short handed at the guard spots forced Duke to play bigger lineups which in turn meant more bigs got minutes but I don't think that Singler playing the 4 is going small like Winslow playing the 4 or even Singler playing the 5. In other words, even if Duke had another guard in 2010, we still would have played 4 bigs, just maybe a different 4 bigs. Also for the support of my argument, Singler was listed as 6'8", 230lbs and Thomas was listed as 6'8", 225 lbs.

I would argue that Singler is a perfect Coach K 4: versatile, fast enough to guard a 3, strong enough to guard a 5, 3pt shooter. Winslow also comes to mind. I think both look like 3s on the surface, but both are better suited for the 4 (and Singler playing the 5 only happened during his freshman year out of necessity. I believe this is when Demarcus Nelson had to play the 4, which is pretty funny given that he's 6'1").

I would agree with you that another guard would mean that Singler could be the 4th big and likely demote one of the Plumlees to a semi-permanent bench role rather than a rotation player, but there is one big difference that separates Singler from the pack: he could shoot the 3. LT, Zoubs, and the Plumlees were all below average jump shooters. Singler is a plus-shooter. This year, it's very similar: Jefferson, Bolden, and Jeter are not jump shooters. Giles is probably not, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him adopt a long jumper / 3pt shot. Tatum, on the other hand, is a jump shooter, and an amazing one at that.

In conclusion, in 2010, we had 4 traditional bigs. If E Williams stays and pushes Singler to the 4, we have 3 traditional bigs and 1 modern big. In 2016, we have 3-4 traditional bigs and 1-2 modern big (definitely Tatum and maybe Giles).

yancem
09-06-2016, 08:40 PM
I would argue that Singler is a perfect Coach K 4: versatile, fast enough to guard a 3, strong enough to guard a 5, 3pt shooter. Winslow also comes to mind. I think both look like 3s on the surface, but both are better suited for the 4 (and Singler playing the 5 only happened during his freshman year out of necessity. I believe this is when Demarcus Nelson had to play the 4, which is pretty funny given that he's 6'1").

I would agree with you that another guard would mean that Singler could be the 4th big and likely demote one of the Plumlees to a semi-permanent bench role rather than a rotation player, but there is one big difference that separates Singler from the pack: he could shoot the 3. LT, Zoubs, and the Plumlees were all below average jump shooters. Singler is a plus-shooter. This year, it's very similar: Jefferson, Bolden, and Jeter are not jump shooters. Giles is probably not, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him adopt a long jumper / 3pt shot. Tatum, on the other hand, is a jump shooter, and an amazing one at that.

In conclusion, in 2010, we had 4 traditional bigs. If E Williams stays and pushes Singler to the 4, we have 3 traditional bigs and 1 modern big. In 2016, we have 3-4 traditional bigs and 1-2 modern big (definitely Tatum and maybe Giles).

I can agree with your distinction of "traditional" vs "modern" bigs but I think that "big" has to be part of the equation. Just because someone can stretch the defense with an outside shot doesn't mean that they are a big. Part of the difficulty Duke had in a few games in 2002 was that Dunleavy became the de facto 4 and while he could certainly stretch the defense with his shooting and had solid height, he really struggled defensively at time against bigger 4's. Singler conversely being a little stronger was more effective guarding 4's. Winslow on the otherhand is an interesting case at 6'6"; he certainly had the strength to play the 4 but lacked some needed height. While he was a great defender and stretched the defense well, I still have a hard time considering him a big and think that him playing the 4 constitutes playing small ball where as I don't consider playing Singler at the 4 as small ball (at the 5 yes). Ok, I think that was as clear as mud, moving on.

FerryFor50
09-06-2016, 08:58 PM
A lot of people peg Matt as the team's best perimeter defender, which I agree with.

But he's also pretty versatile - he can guard just about every position except center.

Steven43
09-06-2016, 09:51 PM
Had Amile used up his eligibility and Grayson gone pro (two things that were very likely to happen in the beginning of the year), Duke is likely to be the #1 team in the country (a line-up of Jackson, Jones, Tatum, Giles, and Bolden is frightening). Add in Amile, and it's a no brainer. Add in Grayson, and it's not fair.

What happened to Luke?

Newton_14
09-06-2016, 10:23 PM
I know I've said this before, but saying it always makes me smile: I'm pretty sure Sam Dekker still has nightmares about Matt's defense on him in the national championship game. :)

One of my favorite moments I caught live and look for each time I watch the replay is Dekker out beyond the top of the key trying to shake Matt who is in his shorts. Dekker slaps at Matt's extended hand, and then looks at the ref real whiny with the "will you please get this guy off me already!!!" look.. priceless!

I smile every time. On the day after the title, I walked to the Student Center to get shirts after the celebration in Cameron and in walks Matt. I walk up and congratulate him for his D on Dekker and I told him about that moment. He had a grin from ear to ear. Pretty cool moment...

OldPhiKap
09-06-2016, 10:28 PM
One of my favorite moments I caught live and look for each time I watch the replay is Dekker out beyond the top of the key trying to shake Matt who is in his shorts. Dekker slaps at Matt's extended hand, and then looks at the ref real whiny with the "will you please get this guy off me already!!!" look.. priceless!

I smile every time. On the day after the title, I walked to the Student Center to get shirts after the celebration in Cameron and in walks Matt. I walk up and congratulate him for his D on Dekker and I told him about that moment. He had a grin from ear to ear. Pretty cool moment...

Exactly, my friend. Matt is an incredible defender. Defense is the staple of K's inner soul.

I would not be surprised to see Matt's minutes diminish over time as the younger kids learn from Matt. But he is a tough hombre and is not going to step aside unless and until K redefines his role. Dude is a baller and a winner, regardless of how many minutes he gets. He and Amile just Get It.

flyingdutchdevil
09-07-2016, 09:21 AM
Exactly, my friend. Matt is an incredible defender. Defense is the staple of K's inner soul.

I would not be surprised to see Matt's minutes diminish over time as the younger kids learn from Matt. But he is a tough hombre and is not going to step aside unless and until K redefines his role. Dude is a baller and a winner, regardless of how many minutes he gets. He and Amile just Get It.

I would be surprised. I really see Matt as a top 5 minute-getter on this team. And as the season progresses, Matt's ability to defend and hit 3pt shots will become even more important, especially as the offense goes through 3-4 players. Matt is probably the most effective player on this team WITHOUT the ball, and given that there is only 1 ball and plenty of players who need the ball, Matt becomes even more invaluable.

Consider me in one of the front cars for the Matt Band Wagon.

OldPhiKap
09-07-2016, 09:24 AM
I would be surprised. I really see Matt as a top 5 minute-getter on this team. And as the season progresses, Matt's ability to defend and hit 3pt shots will become even more important, especially as the offense goes through 3-4 players. Matt is probably the most effective player on this team WITHOUT the ball, and given that there is only 1 ball and plenty of players who need the ball, Matt becomes even more invaluable.

Consider me in one of the front cars for the Matt Band Wagon.

Would be happy to see this coming to pass.