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kAzE
05-19-2016, 03:22 PM
Here it is! Our roster for next year:

#0 Jayson Tatum 6-8 F
#1 Harry Giles 6-10 F/C
#2 Chase Jeter 6-10 C
#3 Grayson Allen 6-4 G
#5 Luke Kennard 6-5 G
#12 Javin Montgomery-DeLaurier 6-8 F
#13 Matt Jones 6-5 G/F
#15 Frank Jackson 6-3 G
#21 Amile Jefferson 6-9 F
#30 Antonio Vrankovic 7-0 C
#34 Sean Obi 6-9 C
#41 Jack White 6-8 F
#45 Nick Pagliuca 6-3 G
#50 Justin Robinson 6-8 F
#53 Brennan Besser 6-5 G

And . . .

Marques Bolden 6-10 F/C

Let the speculation commence.

devildeac
05-19-2016, 03:27 PM
Here it is! Our roster for next year:

#0 Jayson Tatum 6-8 F
#1 Harry Giles 6-10 F/C
#2 Chase Jeter 6-10 C
#3 Grayson Allen 6-4 G
#5 Luke Kennard 6-5 G
#12 Javin Montgomery-DeLaurier 6-8 F
#13 Matt Jones 6-5 G/F
#15 Frank Jackson 6-3 G
#21 Amile Jefferson 6-9 F
#30 Antonio Vrankovic 7-0 C
#34 Sean Obi 6-9 C
#41 Jack White 6-8 F
#45 Nick Pagliuca 6-3 G
#50 Justin Robinson 6-8 F
#53 Brennan Besser 6-5 G

And . . .

Marques Bolden 6-10 F/C

Let the speculation commence.

Damn. That's almost as many as ol roy keeps on his rosters. Considering we'll platoon 3 units, I wonder who the last man out is going to be :o .

MarkD83
05-19-2016, 03:47 PM
Perhaps coach K can petition for a 48 minute game for next year

flyingdutchdevil
05-19-2016, 04:25 PM
It'll be a long off-season. I'm not allocating minutes yet but rather bucketing.

Order is who I think gets the most minutes

Gonna get minutes:
-Grayson
-Tatum
-Amile
-Harry
-Jones
-Kennard

Probably gonna get minutes:
-Jackson
-Marques

Outside-looking-in on minutes:
-Jeter

Duke-up-30-points-with-2-min-left:
-Javin
-Obi
-Vrank
-White
-Robinson
-Pags
-Anyone else?

kAzE
05-19-2016, 04:31 PM
Starters

Player: Minutes

Harry Giles: 28
Amile Jefferson: 28
Matt Jones: 27
Grayson Allen: 32
Jayson Tatum: 29

Bench

Luke Kennard: 24
Marques Bolden: 16
Frank Jackson: 11
Chase Jeter: 4

This is pretty new territory. Not sure we've had a team this deep, like, EVER. This team has nine 5-star kids. I was looking at the 98-99 team, and this team still has more highly rated guys. However, I still think it'll become an 8 man rotation, even if it means a really talented kid isn't playing much.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
05-19-2016, 04:31 PM
It'll be a long off-season. I'm not allocating minutes yet but rather bucketing.

Order is who I think gets the most minutes

Gonna get minutes:
-Grayson
-Tatum
-Amile
-Harry
-Jones
-Kennard

Probably gonna get minutes:
-Jackson
-Marques

Outside-looking-in on minutes:
-Jeter

Duke-up-30-points-with-2-min-left:
-Javin
-Obi
-Vrank
-White
-Robinson
-Pags
-Anyone else?

Looks about right at first blush. My only quibble is I'd like that last bucket to look more like "Duke-Up-30-Points-With-15-Min-Left" ;)

Skitzle
05-19-2016, 04:34 PM
Kaze, I think you can change the title of this thread to:

Phase -1: Keys to the minutes discussion


1. Health:
Obi is already hurt, will he be able to play at all next year? Surprisingly the biggest X factor in the minutes discussion (see 3 and 5).
If anyone gets hurt next year, every minutes discussion will be moot.

2. Minutes Locks
Allen, A. Jefferson, Tatum, Giles, M. Jones, Kennard all a lock for minutes. Thats 6 of an 8-9 deep rotation

3. Minutes Knocks
Unlikely to get minutes from Vrank, J. Rob, J. White, and Javin (AKA How do you spell Delaurierierieer?).
Obi probably also makes this list, because of injury and lack of improvement. Would need a heck of a summer...

4. Guard Battle (AKA Just how good is Frank Jackson really?)
He'll probably play, but just how much will Jackson eat into Jones/Kennard minutes? Is he good enough to start? Can he earn MORE minutes than either of these guys?

5. Jeter Vs Bolden
Who's more ready, the big body center freshman or the somewhat tested sophomore. There is also a chance neither get significant minutes and they get distributed into a 3 man big rotation of Jefferson, Giles and Tatum. Also Obi?

MChambers
05-19-2016, 05:05 PM
I am very tempted to go with the same prediction I used last year, when Duke looked 9 deep, before we learned that Obi had bad knees, Jeter wasn't ready, and Amile had a broken foot. Everyone of the 9 gets slightly more than 22 mpg, except for blowouts, when the other player take some minutes.

Maybe I should give this more thought. . .

Saratoga2
05-19-2016, 05:14 PM
Kaze, I think you can change the title of this thread to:

Phase -1: Keys to the minutes discussion


1. Health:
Obi is already hurt, will he be able to play at all next year? Surprisingly the biggest X factor in the minutes discussion (see 3 and 5).
If anyone gets hurt next year, every minutes discussion will be moot.

2. Minutes Locks
Allen, A. Jefferson, Tatum, Giles, M. Jones, Kennard all a lock for minutes. Thats 6 of an 8-9 deep rotation

3. Minutes Knocks
Unlikely to get minutes from Vrank, J. Rob, J. White, and Javin (AKA How do you spell Delaurierierieer?).
Obi probably also makes this list, because of injury and lack of improvement. Would need a heck of a summer...

4. Guard Battle (AKA Just how good is Frank Jackson really?)
He'll probably play, but just how much will Jackson eat into Jones/Kennard minutes? Is he good enough to start? Can he earn MORE minutes than either of these guys?

5. Jeter Vs Bolden
Who's more ready, the big body center freshman or the somewhat tested sophomore. There is also a chance neither get significant minutes and they get distributed into a 3 man big rotation of Jefferson, Giles and Tatum. Also Obi?

I do see Allen, Jefferson, Tatum and Giles as likely starters. The freshmen will have to play defense to maintain that role. It is probably up in the air as to whether Jones starts. The real issue will be to find a consistent PG. Jackson has a chance at that role as does Kennard. Jones is a good defender but not so much a PG or a guy that can create his own shot. Whichever player starts the others will be getting solid PT. I see Bolden as a sub for Jefferson and Jeter for Giles, but a lot of fluidity there based on performance. A lot will depend on how quickly guys pick up defensive skills and rebounding. Beyond them, the others will have to work and improve to see any or much PT. Maybe there will be positive surprises with Delaurier, White and Vrank. Stranger things have happened. Obi's physical condition may keep him out of contributing in any meaningful way.

flyingdutchdevil
05-19-2016, 05:28 PM
Starters

Player: Minutes

Harry Giles: 28
Amile Jefferson: 28
Matt Jones: 27
Grayson Allen: 32
Jayson Tatum: 29

Bench

Luke Kennard: 24
Marques Bolden: 16
Frank Jackson: 11
Chase Jeter: 4

This is pretty new territory. Not sure we've had a team this deep, like, EVER. This team has nine 5-star kids. I was looking at the 98-99 team, and this team still has more highly rated guys. However, I still think it'll become an 8 man rotation, even if it means a really talented kid isn't playing much.

Come on kaZe, where is Jack White? ;)

Hey, we'll always have that!

kAzE
05-19-2016, 05:34 PM
Come on kaZe, where is Jack White? ;)

Hey, we'll always have that!

I'm not taking the bait!

There's no way I'm going to find my posts from the tremendously long 2016 recruiting thread, but if he doesn't get rotation minutes by year 3 (2018-19), I'll concede the win to you.

flyingdutchdevil
05-19-2016, 05:37 PM
Starters

Player: Minutes

Harry Giles: 28
Amile Jefferson: 28
Matt Jones: 27
Grayson Allen: 32
Jayson Tatum: 29

Bench

Luke Kennard: 24
Marques Bolden: 16
Frank Jackson: 11
Chase Jeter: 4

This is pretty new territory. Not sure we've had a team this deep, like, EVER. This team has nine 5-star kids. I was looking at the 98-99 team, and this team still has more highly rated guys. However, I still think it'll become an 8 man rotation, even if it means a really talented kid isn't playing much.

Without going deep into second differences (rather than minute differences), pretty much agree. I think Jackson gets more minutes, Jones gets less, Giles less (due to easing him back), Tatum more.

8 man rotation? Tough to argue with that.

duke74
05-19-2016, 05:40 PM
Here it is! Our roster for next year:

#0 Jayson Tatum 6-8 F
#1 Harry Giles 6-10 F/C
#2 Chase Jeter 6-10 C
#3 Grayson Allen 6-4 G
#5 Luke Kennard 6-5 G
#12 Javin Montgomery-DeLaurier 6-8 F
#13 Matt Jones 6-5 G/F
#15 Frank Jackson 6-3 G
#21 Amile Jefferson 6-9 F
#30 Antonio Vrankovic 7-0 C
#34 Sean Obi 6-9 C
#41 Jack White 6-8 F
#45 Nick Pagliuca 6-3 G
#50 Justin Robinson 6-8 F
#53 Brennan Besser 6-5 G

And . . .

Marques Bolden 6-10 F/C

Let the speculation commence.

Not a direct minutes thing, but we have 10 (!) guys at or over 6'8", and 4 at or over 6'10". Wow

Henderson
05-19-2016, 05:41 PM
I do see Allen, Jefferson, Tatum and Giles as likely starters. The freshmen will have to play defense to maintain that role. It is probably up in the air as to whether Jones starts.

Matt Jones brings a lot to the table. He's experienced, likely to be a captain, plays good on-ball defense, knows the system, and Coach K loves him. If he's not a starter, things must be going very well for the good guys. I can easily see GA handling the ball on offense in many (most?) situations, which makes room.

TKG
05-19-2016, 06:28 PM
By February it will be a 7-8 man rotation, at most.....................kidding folks, just kidding.

Kedsy
05-19-2016, 06:50 PM
Not a direct minutes thing, but we have 10 (!) guys at or over 6'8", and 4 at or over 6'10". Wow

Well, except every report I can find on Jack White says he's 6'7", but nine guys at or over 6'8" is still pretty good.

Kedsy
05-19-2016, 06:55 PM
By February it will be a 7-8 man rotation, at most......kidding folks, just kidding.

It's possible it will end up a 7-man rotation, if Jayson Tatum ends up playing primarily at PF. More likely it will be an 8-man rotation, with three bigs and five perimeter guys (including Jayson).

But if Chase Jeter ends the summer vastly improved, I think there's a possibility that K goes outside his comfort zone and plays nine guys regularly (in non-garbage time situations). It would essentially be unprecedented but, as others have pointed out, this year's very deep team is even deeper (both qualitatively and quantitatively) than other teams that we thought at the time were very deep (but turned out not to be).

duke74
05-19-2016, 07:12 PM
Well, except every report I can find on Jack White says he's 6'7", but nine guys at or over 6'8" is still pretty good.

Although I was an auditor for 38 years, I didn't audit this. I relied on the OP's representations of height. :)

subzero02
05-19-2016, 07:36 PM
Starters

Player: Minutes

Harry Giles: 28
Amile Jefferson: 28
Matt Jones: 27
Grayson Allen: 32
Jayson Tatum: 29

Bench

Luke Kennard: 24
Marques Bolden: 16
Frank Jackson: 11
Chase Jeter: 4

This is pretty new territory. Not sure we've had a team this deep, like, EVER. This team has nine 5-star kids. I was looking at the 98-99 team, and this team still has more highly rated guys. However, I still think it'll become an 8 man rotation, even if it means a really talented kid isn't playing much.

Jackson is too good to only get 11 minutes a game.

sagegrouse
05-19-2016, 07:56 PM
Nine-man rotation -- take it to the bank. Similar to the rotation in Elton Brand's two years. Check it out (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/seasons/).
Chase Jeter will play, although he won't start. He was contributing significantly by the end of the season, and productive players never go to the end of the bench at Duke. He's in the mix.
Who's gonna be defensive stoppers other than Amile and Matt Jones? Grayson and Luke will help, but what about the others? When it comes to freshmen, you gotta "show me." We are counting on Tatum, Giles, Bolden and Jackson as part of the rotation. Duke team defense is hard to learn. The distribution of minutes after mid-January may be quite different than in the first half of the season.
Surprise of the upcoming season? Luke Kennard makes second-team All-ACC.


Enough predictions for now

subzero02
05-19-2016, 08:39 PM
Nine-man rotation -- take it to the bank. Similar to the rotation in Elton Brand's two years. Check it out (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/seasons/).
Chase Jeter will play, although he won't start. He was contributing significantly by the end of the season, and productive players never go to the end of the bench at Duke. He's in the mix.
Who's gonna be defensive stoppers other than Amile and Matt Jones? Grayson and Luke will help, but what about the others? When it comes to freshmen, you gotta "show me." We are counting on Tatum, Giles, Bolden and Jackson as part of the rotation. Duke team defense is hard to learn. The distribution of minutes after mid-January may be quite different than in the first half of the season.
Surprise of the upcoming season? Luke Kennard makes second-team All-ACC.


Enough predictions for now

Luke Kennard making second team all acc wouldn't surprise me at all. If he finds his stroke from 3 and more importantly, improves his handle, he will be an offensive terror.

Kedsy
05-19-2016, 10:30 PM
Nine-man rotation -- take it to the bank. Similar to the rotation in Elton Brand's two years. Check it out (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/seasons/).

We didn't really have a nine-man rotation in Elton Brand's years, or even an eight-man rotation. It only looked like it because (a) Elton missed 15 games in 1997-98, so other players took his minutes in those games; and (b) we blew so many teams out that there was an excess of garbage time.

I know I may sound like a broken record, but if you look only at games played after January 1 that were decided by fewer than 20 points, here's the number of players that played 10+ minutes in those seasons:



Year 6 7 8
---- - - -
1999 2 7 2
1998 0 9 4


Out of 24 "close" games after January 1, seven players got 10+ minutes in 16 of the games; eight players got 10+ minutes in 6 of the games; and six players got 10+ minutes in 2 of the games, for an average of 7.2 players getting 10+ minutes in close games (after 1/1) over the course of those seasons.

I realize different people have different definitions of what "in the rotation" means, but for Coach K to play a "true" nine-man rotation (by my definition, that would be playing nine guys for 10+ minutes in most close games), it would be unprecedented.

Having said that, I agree that we might have nine guys average 10+ minutes for the season, because I expect a fair amount of garbage time next season. I also think that if Coach K were ever going to change his stripes and play a true nine-man rotation, next season would be the time to do it. But before we go there, let's see how much Chase improves in the off-season.

sagegrouse
05-19-2016, 11:27 PM
We didn't really have a nine-man rotation in Elton Brand's years, or even an eight-man rotation. It only looked like it because (a) Elton missed 15 games in 1997-98, so other players took his minutes in those games; and (b) we blew so many teams out that there was an excess of garbage time.

I know I may sound like a broken record, but if you look only at games played after January 1 that were decided by fewer than 20 points, here's the number of players that played 10+ minutes in those seasons:



Year 6 7 8
---- - - -
1999 2 7 2
1998 0 9 4


Out of 24 "close" games after January 1, seven players got 10+ minutes in 16 of the games; eight players got 10+ minutes in 6 of the games; and six players got 10+ minutes in 2 of the games, for an average of 7.2 players getting 10+ minutes in close games (after 1/1) over the course of those seasons.

I realize different people have different definitions of what "in the rotation" means, but for Coach K to play a "true" nine-man rotation (by my definition, that would be playing nine guys for 10+ minutes in most close games), it would be unprecedented.

Having said that, I agree that we might have nine guys average 10+ minutes for the season, because I expect a fair amount of garbage time next season. I also think that if Coach K were ever going to change his stripes and play a true nine-man rotation, next season would be the time to do it. But before we go there, let's see how much Chase improves in the off-season.

Hey, Kedsy! Cut the [nonsense]! You are the prisoner of your data and your excessively literalness, where nothing can be true unless it comes out of your database! Aren't you treating definitions like a toothbrush -- you won't use anyone else's and no one else will use yours.

Duke had NINE players playing 450 minutes or more in 1998, and EIGHT players with 570 minutes or more in 1999. Moreover, I would add Taymon, who had 300 minutes in both seasons. That means ten players with significant roles in 1998 and nine in 1999. You say that "in the rotation" is a game-by-game determination; well, I don't agree. Minutes will differ due to matchups, injuries, and the experience and comfort earned by the freshmen. If we have nine players with 450 minutes next season, I will feel that my prediction was OK ("vindicated" being too strong a term). You will also note that in my post I said, "The distribution of minutes after mid-January may be quite different than in the first half of the season."

Kedsy
05-20-2016, 01:17 AM
Hey, Kedsy! Cut the [nonsense]! You are the prisoner of your data and your excessively literalness, where nothing can be true unless it comes out of your database! Aren't you treating definitions like a toothbrush -- you won't use anyone else's and no one else will use yours.

Duke had NINE players playing 450 minutes or more in 1998, and EIGHT players with 570 minutes or more in 1999. Moreover, I would add Taymon, who had 300 minutes in both seasons. That means ten players with significant roles in 1998 and nine in 1999. You say that "in the rotation" is a game-by-game determination; well, I don't agree. Minutes will differ due to matchups, injuries, and the experience and comfort earned by the freshmen. If we have nine players with 450 minutes next season, I will feel that my prediction was OK ("vindicated" being too strong a term). You will also note that in my post I said, "The distribution of minutes after mid-January may be quite different than in the first half of the season."

Maybe I'm the prisoner of my "excessively literalness," but Taymon Domzalski didn't play 300 minutes in either season. I'll admit he was close in 1999 (296), but in 1998 he only played 258 minutes, which over the course of 36 games is not very close to 300. But that doesn't really matter, because here's the thing about Taymon. Do you know how many minutes he played in 1997-98 games where Elton Brand was available and the final margin was 20 or fewer points? ZERO. He did not play a single minute in a game that wasn't a blowout and Elton was healthy. In 1999, in games decided by fewer than 20 points, Taymon played 49 minutes in 16 games (3.0 mpg), and in such games after December 2, he played 20 minutes in 13 games (1.5 mpg). In these two seasons, Taymon ONLY played in garbage time or as an injury replacement. No matter what data you use, that is NOT in the rotation.

Similarly, in 1998 in non-blowouts when Elton Brand was available, Chris Burgess played 5.6 mpg and Mike Chappell played 8.4 mpg (only 5.2 mpg after December 2). Again, these guys played the vast majority of their 1997-98 minutes in garbage time or as injury replacements. They weren't a meaningful part of the rotation (at least when Elton Brand was in it).

Simply put, we did NOT play a nine-man rotation in either 1998 or 1999. To suggest that we did is the real [nonsense].

MarkD83
05-20-2016, 06:49 AM
There are more minutes in practice than in games. With the depth of this team I expect that the team will learn team defense and offense faster than teams in the recent past even the 2015 team which struggled early. Whoever plays the most minutes they will be much better prepared faster than in the past

luburch
05-20-2016, 08:02 AM
I really hope Jeter can play his way on to the court. He showed some flashes at the end of last season and I think he has a lot of upside.

I'm excited at the prospect of Luke coming off the bench and staggering his minutes with Grayson a bit (will be difficult because I expect Grayson to continue to play a lot). Luke seems to be more effective with the ball in his hands and could make a great six man. Matt Jones will likely start the season as a starter, we'll see if Frank can take that title away from him come tournament time.

My only real concern for this team is lack of a "true point guard", but last year's Duke team didn't have on either and they were extremely efficient.

sagegrouse
05-20-2016, 08:04 AM
Maybe I'm the prisoner of my "excessively literalness," but Taymon Domzalski didn't play 300 minutes in either season. I'll admit he was close in 1999 (296), but in 1998 he only played 258 minutes, which over the course of 36 games is not very close to 300. But that doesn't really matter, because here's the thing about Taymon. Do you know how many minutes he played in 1997-98 games where Elton Brand was available and the final margin was 20 or fewer points? ZERO. He did not play a single minute in a game that wasn't a blowout and Elton was healthy. In 1999, in games decided by fewer than 20 points, Taymon played 49 minutes in 16 games (3.0 mpg), and in such games after December 2, he played 20 minutes in 13 games (1.5 mpg). In these two seasons, Taymon ONLY played in garbage time or as an injury replacement. No matter what data you use, that is NOT in the rotation.

Similarly, in 1998 in non-blowouts when Elton Brand was available, Chris Burgess played 5.6 mpg and Mike Chappell played 8.4 mpg (only 5.2 mpg after December 2). Again, these guys played the vast majority of their 1997-98 minutes in garbage time or as injury replacements. They weren't a meaningful part of the rotation (at least when Elton Brand was in it).

Simply put, we did NOT play a nine-man rotation in either 1998 or 1999. To suggest that we did is the real [nonsense].

Kedsy, aren't injuries part of the game? Players get minutes all sorts of ways, and, while not wishing ill on teammates, subbing for an injured player is still an opportunity for productive time on the court.

Channing
05-20-2016, 08:17 AM
I am confident we will be able to score at a rapid and efficient rate. What I want to see is the defensive presence of this team. Our defense has, at times (to say the least) been porous the last few years. My uninformed guess is that it is due to a combination of injuries and relying heavily on freshman who haven't had time to master Duke's M2M defense. A great back line defender can be a great cure-all, and I'm hoping Amile wears that hat this year. But, I don't want to see teams like Yale/Vermont/Rhode Island etc. have their most efficient offensive game of the season against Duke

dukebluesincebirth
05-20-2016, 09:24 AM
With the intensity that Grayson brings to practice, coupled with the focus and leadership of Amile and Matt, combined with the overall extremely high level of talent that'll be on the court...wow! There's gonna be some fierce competition going on. Some of the toughest games of the season for these guys may be the scrimmages inside their own gym. Coach K will be able to work wonders in practice with all these pieces to work with! When's the first open practice? #cantwait

whereinthehellami
05-20-2016, 10:14 AM
I'll play:)

The assumption is that everyone is 100% healthy:

Starters
Name Ht Yr Mpg Ppg
Allen 6-4 JR 31 17
Jones 6-5 SR 25 9
Tatum 6-9 FR 29 15
Giles 6-9 FR 26 11
Jefferson 6-9 SR 28 9

Bench
Name Ht Yr Mpg Ppg
Kennard 6-5 SO 23 12
Jackson 6-4 FR 17 7
Bolden 6-10 FR 13 5

I only did a projection for players that I think will get double digit minutes per game. The above total minutes come to 192, that leaves about 8 minutes to divide among the rest of the team for blowout and end of the game situations.

The total points per game in the above projection comes to about 85, which is pretty high considering that the rest of the team will add to that putting the total to around 90ish. But where do you cut points? When you have Kennard and Jackson coming off the bench you are incredibly talented on offense!

superdave
05-20-2016, 10:47 AM
How healthy is Harry Giles? Has he been playing full curt hoops? Are his knees enough of a concern to limit him to, say, 20 mpg?

Kedsy - What does your RSCI formula say about Jeter vs Bolden? I know the Final RSCI is not out yet? But using the old rankings, is there a clear rotation guy between the two based on that formula? Bolden is #21 and Jeter was #14. I am guessing the forumala will be pro-Jeter.

Also, what is the quality of big men in the Class of 2015 vs Class of 2016? Does that distinguish between Jeter and Bolden, before we even get to fall practice?

Matches
05-20-2016, 10:50 AM
Kedsy, aren't injuries part of the game? Players get minutes all sorts of ways, and, while not wishing ill on teammates, subbing for an injured player is still an opportunity for productive time on the court.

Injuries are indeed part of the game, but at least to me, when we ask how many players will be "in the rotation", we're asking how many guys are likely to see significant minutes in a particular game (and usually we're talking about late-season games which are of higher importance and often more closely contested).

A guy who's getting minutes in place of an injured player isn't expanding the rotation.

Taymon Domzalski didn't get off the bench in the NC game in '99, and no one expected him to, because he wasn't part of the regular playing rotation. He got minutes in blowouts or if someone was hurt.

ChillinDuke
05-20-2016, 11:01 AM
How healthy is Harry Giles? Has he been playing full curt hoops? Are his knees enough of a concern to limit him to, say, 20 mpg?

I haven't heard that he's on the court yet. Back in March he was running in the pool. He's probably getting close to court activity (he's, what, 6 months out of surgery?). I believe he started summer school at Duke just this past week.

If he's ready come the start of the season, they may ease him in. I don't think there will be a stated minutes limit, I'd expect it to be a game-to-game approach. We also have the depth (especially now with Bolden) that we won't need to rely on major minutes from him if he's either struggling, still sore, or even not ready at the start of the year.


Kedsy - What does your RSCI formula say about Jeter vs Bolden? I know the Final RSCI is not out yet? But using the old rankings, is there a clear rotation guy between the two based on that formula? Bolden is #21 and Jeter was #14. I am guessing the forumala will be pro-Jeter.

I think both were rated in the same range (10-15), so I think Kedsy's formula will indeed be pro-Jeter since he has the extra year.


Also, what is the quality of big men in the Class of 2015 vs Class of 2016? Does that distinguish between Jeter and Bolden, before we even get to fall practice?

The Class of '15 was widely regarded as a shallow class. Very shallow. I think it was regarded as such across all positions, so I'd expect that 2016 big men are regarded higher than 2015 big men. But quantifying that in any meaningful way is challenging, to say the least.

- Chillin

superdave
05-20-2016, 11:08 AM
In 2010, we had five big guys who played - Zoubek, Thomas, Plumlee, Plumlee, Kelly. The way those minutes got distributed, and how it evolved over the course of the season is telling.

The first four guys played in all games (when healthy). Kelly played in 35/40. In the Final Four he played 1 minute in the blowout of WVU and had a DNP in the close title game vs Butler. Could that be Jeter's fate this season? Or Bolden's? I guess we wont know until the first month of the season.

Zoubek started the final 16 games of the season. Once he moved into the starting lineup, his minutes ticked up some.

Here's the MPG for these five guys for March and April games of that season -

Zoubek 24.1 MPG
Thomas 25.9
Miles 14.9
Mason 12.5
Kelly 3.4 (7 games) or 2.2 if you average zeroes for the 4 DNP's

If you can tell me how Harry Giles knees are and if there will be a clear distinction between Jeter and Bolden, then I think you can project frontcourt minutes. My guess would be if Giles is limited in any way, you will see Tatum close out games at the 4. If he is ready for a full load, we will play a bigger lineup.

Here's my frontcourt guess for now-

Jefferson 30
Giles 27
Bolden 10
Jeter 10
Tatum 3

Kedsy
05-20-2016, 11:15 AM
Kedsy, aren't injuries part of the game? Players get minutes all sorts of ways, and, while not wishing ill on teammates, subbing for an injured player is still an opportunity for productive time on the court.

Absolutely, injuries are part of the game and subbing for an injured player can be important (possibly critical) and productive. Which is one reason Coach K generally keeps a roster of more than 7 or 8 players.

But let's posit a hypothetical situation where player A plays 25 mpg for the first 20 games then gets hurt. Player B, who played zero minutes during the first 20 games, steps into the starting lineup and plays 25 minutes for the last 20 games. Six other players played 500+ minutes that season, giving us eight players with 500+ minutes. Can any reasonable argument be made that we had an 8-man rotation? I say no. We had a 7-man rotation with player A and then a 7-man rotation with player B.

In other words, saying Coach K uses a 7-man rotation doesn't mean it's always the same seven guys, at least in my vocabulary.


I am confident we will be able to score at a rapid and efficient rate. What I want to see is the defensive presence of this team. Our defense has, at times (to say the least) been porous the last few years. My uninformed guess is that it is due to a combination of injuries and relying heavily on freshman who haven't had time to master Duke's M2M defense. A great back line defender can be a great cure-all, and I'm hoping Amile wears that hat this year. But, I don't want to see teams like Yale/Vermont/Rhode Island etc. have their most efficient offensive game of the season against Duke

There are reasons to be hopeful on the defensive front. Our best defensive players from the past two years (Amile and Matt) are returning to anchor our D. Harry Giles comes in with a strong defensive reputation, something Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones, Jabari Parker, Austin Rivers, and Kyrie Irving absolutely did not (Justise Winslow also came to Duke with a strong defensive reputation and met it). Marques Bolden, Jayson Tatum and Frank Jackson come in with reputations of having good potential on defense, which hopefully they'll fulfill (Derryck Thornton came to Duke with good defensive potential and somewhat fulfilled it). I've always thought Grayson was an underrated defender, and Luke is a heady player who showed flashes as well. Especially because Amile is such a good defensive communicator, I think the odds of us having a strong defense are, while not a lock, fairly high.

Kedsy
05-20-2016, 11:28 AM
Kedsy - What does your RSCI formula say about Jeter vs Bolden? I know the Final RSCI is not out yet? But using the old rankings, is there a clear rotation guy between the two based on that formula? Bolden is #21 and Jeter was #14. I am guessing the forumala will be pro-Jeter.

Based on his movement in the rankings that make up the RSCI, I expect Marques to end up in the mid-teens. In my formula, that would give him a 2.0 rating. Chase was ranked #14 last season, and after playing a year his rating would be 1.5, so yeah, unless Marques breaks into the top 10 (unlikely), the formula will be pro-Jeter. On the other hand, the formula predicted Chase would be ahead of Marshall Plumlee last season and he clearly wasn't. It's possible that, formula-wise, Chase is the second coming of Casey Sanders (who was responsible for 2 of the 4 exceptions to the formula's rule).

I'll also say this: the formula will predict an 8-man rotation next season, with five perimeter players (including Jayson) and three bigs. And while it will probably predict Chase over Marques for the 3rd big, it's hard for me to believe that Marques Bolden would have chosen Duke if the coaches didn't suggest to him that he'll play decent minutes his freshman season. That's why I'm hoping for an unprecedented 9-man rotation and in the absence of that expecting Chase to be a Casey Sanders-like exception to the formula.

Again, we probably need to wait and see how much Chase improves in the off-season before we make judgments.

kAzE
05-20-2016, 11:39 AM
Based on his movement in the rankings that make up the RSCI, I expect Marques to end up in the mid-teens. In my formula, that would give him a 2.0 rating. Chase was ranked #14 last season, and after playing a year his rating would be 1.5, so yeah, unless Marques breaks into the top 10 (unlikely), the formula will be pro-Jeter. On the other hand, the formula predicted Chase would be ahead of Marshall Plumlee last season and he clearly wasn't. It's possible that, formula-wise, Chase is the second coming of Casey Sanders (who was responsible for 2 of the 4 exceptions to the formula's rule).

Does your formula account for variance in the amount of talent between recruiting classes? The consensus seems to be that this year's class is MUCH better, and Marques would likely have been RSCI top 10 last year.

Chase doesn't seem to me like a Sanders, though. He's much more talented offensively.

Kedsy
05-20-2016, 11:50 AM
Does your formula account for variance in the amount of talent between recruiting classes? The consensus seems to be that this year's class is MUCH better, and Marques would likely have been RSCI top 10 last year.

Chase doesn't seem to me like a Sanders, though. He's much more talented offensively.

It doesn't take that into account, no. I can't see any way to do that objectively.

But even without making that determination there have only been four exceptions (five if you count Chase last season, though Amile's injury complicated that) in the 17 years the RSCI has been around, so I'm not sure it would be worth it to try to measure that variance.

I agree Chase doesn't seem like a Casey Sanders, which is why I think it's possible that Coach K will break tradition and play a 9-man rotation this season, assuming Chase improves a lot over the off-season.

MChambers
05-20-2016, 11:52 AM
There are reasons to be hopeful on the defensive front. Our best defensive players from the past two years (Amile and Matt) are returning to anchor our D. Harry Giles comes in with a strong defensive reputation, something Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones, Jabari Parker, Austin Rivers, and Kyrie Irving absolutely did not (Justise Winslow also came to Duke with a strong defensive reputation and met it). Marques Bolden, Jayson Tatum and Frank Jackson come in with reputations of having good potential on defense, which hopefully they'll fulfill (Derryck Thornton came to Duke with good defensive potential and somewhat fulfilled it). I've always thought Grayson was an underrated defender, and Luke is a heady player who showed flashes as well. Especially because Amile is such a good defensive communicator, I think the odds of us having a strong defense are, while not a lock, fairly high.
This makes my day, because I think defense will be key to next year's team, and I know Kedsy views things like this in a (mostly) rational, even curmudgeonly way. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Indoor66
05-20-2016, 12:22 PM
This makes my day, because I think defense will be key to next year's team, and I know Kedsy views things like this in a (mostly) rational, even curmudgeonly way. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Maybe formulaic is more appropriate?

brlftz
05-20-2016, 12:33 PM
Reposting what I said in the thread on this in April, my thinking is still pretty much the same. My starters are Allen, Jones, Tatum, Jefferson, Giles. The only change I might make is to use more of the inside depth in the "oh crap" phase:

***********

I think this next year will look a lot like '99. With so much talent we'll go deeper in routine situations. When it gets serious, though, I see K sticking with experience and toughness beyond what fans might expect.

My take, assuming Bolden comes, Allen stays, and that Bolden earns more time than Jeter:

Pre- through early-season. Yay, everyone plays!


Perimeter
Minutes
Swing
Minutes
Interior
Minutes


Allen
28
Tatum
28
Bolden
20


Jackson
20


Jeter
12


Kennard
20


Giles
28


Jones
20


Jefferson
24



Stuff's getting real, conference play:


Perimeter
Minutes
Swing
Minutes
Interior
Minutes


Allen
32
Tatum
32
Bolden
12


Jackson
12


Jeter
6


Kennard
22


Giles
32


Jones
20


Jefferson
32



Oh crap, win or die!


Perimeter
Minutes
Swing
Minutes
Interior
Minutes


Allen
36
Tatum
36
Bolden
4


Jackson
4


Giles
36


Kennard
20


Jefferson
36


Jones
28

flyingdutchdevil
05-20-2016, 12:45 PM
There are reasons to be hopeful on the defensive front. Our best defensive players from the past two years (Amile and Matt) are returning to anchor our D. Harry Giles comes in with a strong defensive reputation, something Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones, Jabari Parker, Austin Rivers, and Kyrie Irving absolutely did not (Justise Winslow also came to Duke with a strong defensive reputation and met it). Marques Bolden, Jayson Tatum and Frank Jackson come in with reputations of having good potential on defense, which hopefully they'll fulfill (Derryck Thornton came to Duke with good defensive potential and somewhat fulfilled it). I've always thought Grayson was an underrated defender, and Luke is a heady player who showed flashes as well. Especially because Amile is such a good defensive communicator, I think the odds of us having a strong defense are, while not a lock, fairly high.

I disagree with this. After reading a lot, the only player with really good defensive chops - rather than "potential" - on the defensive end is Giles. He has proven in AAU, USA Basketball, high school, etc. Bolden has also been given some recognition with regards to rebounding and blocking, but no mention about his help-side or man-to-man. I haven't come across much regarding Jackson nor Tatum. And my rule of thumb - which was worked out regarding recruits for the last half decade - is if they do not mention defense or say a player has defensive "potential", he is probably a sub-par defender right now. And the chances of changing in a year are low (but not zero).

I'm expecting a nasty offensive game with the scorers and athletes that he have. Defensively, we have 3 above-average defenders right now (Giles, Jones, Jefferson) and the jury is out on everyone else. I expect us to be ranked in the top 3 offensively all season and somewhere between 30-60 from Nov-Feb. Whether we can break into the top 30 in March is the question.

brlftz
05-20-2016, 12:51 PM
I also want to mention that I'm loving how the Olympic experience has given K practice managing ridiculously large rotations. Figuring out how to make this work can't be easy, but he's had better preparation than anyone. Look at the Calipari platoon system to see what that's worth.

flyingdutchdevil
05-20-2016, 12:54 PM
I also want to mention that I'm loving how the Olympic experience has given K practice managing ridiculously large rotations. Figuring out how to make this work can't be easy, but he's had better preparation than anyone. Look at the Calipari platoon system to see what that's worth.

Ironically, Coach K's Olympic experience may have led to Coach K shortening his rotations rather than lengthening them. At it makes sense, because the difference in talent (percentage-wise) from the 1st man to the 12th man in the Olympics is significantly less than the talent gap between Duke's 1st man to the 9th man.

NSDukeFan
05-20-2016, 12:58 PM
Ironically, Coach K's Olympic experience may have led to Coach K shortening his rotations rather than lengthening them. At it makes sense, because the difference in talent (percentage-wise) from the 1st man to the 12th man in the Olympics is significantly less than the talent gap between Duke's 1st man to the 9th man.

Maybe not this year?

MChambers
05-20-2016, 01:27 PM
Maybe formulaic is more appropriate?

It definitely is, but not as fun.

whereinthehellami
05-20-2016, 01:38 PM
Below is a screenie from Marques Bolden's Draft Express profile (http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Marques-Bolden-81940/)

6383

I think Marques is gonna need some time like most big guys transitioning from HS to college to find his consistency and to adjust to the size and speed of the game. I like that he comes in with good size, mobility, and good hands, that bodes well for him finding a niche on a team that only needs him to compliment the starters.

NSDukeFan
05-20-2016, 03:40 PM
Below is a screenie from Marques Bolden's Draft Express profile (http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Marques-Bolden-81940/)

6383

I think Marques is gonna need some time like most big guys transitioning from HS to college to find his consistency and to adjust to the size and speed of the game. I like that he comes in with good size, mobility, and good hands, that bodes well for him finding a niche on a team that only needs him to compliment the starters.
254 pounds is pretty big for a reasonably mobile freshman center.

Kedsy
05-20-2016, 03:54 PM
I haven't come across much regarding Jackson nor Tatum. And my rule of thumb - which was worked out regarding recruits for the last half decade - is if they do not mention defense or say a player has defensive "potential", he is probably a sub-par defender right now.

About Jayson Tatum:

Draft Express (http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jayson-Tatum-7249/) (Jonathan Givony): "Defensively, Tatum doesn't always show great intensity at this stage, but is capable of being very disruptive when locked in. He has both the tools, and the instincts to be a real playmaker in the passing lanes and as a shot-blocker, but will need to show better desire to utilize them more frequently."

Draft Express (http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jayson-Tatum-7249/) (Mike Schmitz): "Has the tools to be a very solid defender."

NBA Draft Room (http://www.nbadraftroom.com/2014/08/jayson-tatum.html): "A strong and determined defender with ideal size."


About Marques Bolden:

Draft Express (http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Marques-Bolden-81940/) (Jonathan Givony): "Shows very nice potential defensively. Stepped out on the pick and roll and moved his feet impressively. Can block shots using his very long arms."

Draft Express (http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Marques-Bolden-81940/) (Jonathan Givony): "Defensively, Bolden will have somewhat of a transition to make at the college level, even if he has the potential to be very solid here in time, indeed already showing some flashes of effectiveness in small spurts."


About Frank Jackson:

Draft Express (http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Frank-Jackson-89588/) (Jonathan Givony): "Great potential defensively with his combination of size, strength, athleticism and instincts. Has good lateral quickness and plays with strong intensity on this side of the floor. Displays nice urgency on his closeouts. Can defend either guard position at college and possibly even pro level."

Draft Express (http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Frank-Jackson-89588/) (Mike Schmitz): "Doesn't always dig in defensively. Can get deep into a stance but lacks versatility on that end of the floor due to his average tools."

ice-9
05-22-2016, 10:40 PM
Grayson - 32 min. Will be the glue that holds all the talent together. Will probably handle the ball quite a lot, out of a need for the team and to develop for the NBA. He might have gotten even more minutes if not for us blowing out teams so often. :)

Jones - 25 min. Same as Grayson, just less explosive.

Tatum - 28 min.

Giles - 27 min. Fewer minutes to start the season, more as he acclimates.

Jefferson - 30 min. Our bigs are young so we will need senior leadership.

Kennard - 20 min. Probably first off the bench, to help with ball handling.

Bolden - 15 min. More than Jeter because a traditional Center game is more valuable given what we have 1-4.

Jeter - 10 min.

Jackson - 10 min.

Everyone else - 3 min of mop up duty.

So primarily a 7 man rotation with 8 and 9 getting some minutes.

CDu
05-23-2016, 07:42 AM
Grayson - 32 min. Will be the glue that holds all the talent together. Will probably handle the ball quite a lot, out of a need for the team and to develop for the NBA. He might have gotten even more minutes if not for us blowing out teams so often. :)

Jones - 25 min. Same as Grayson, just less explosive.

Tatum - 28 min.

Giles - 27 min. Fewer minutes to start the season, more as he acclimates.

Jefferson - 30 min. Our bigs are young so we will need senior leadership.

Kennard - 20 min. Probably first off the bench, to help with ball handling.

Bolden - 15 min. More than Jeter because a traditional Center game is more valuable given what we have 1-4.

Jeter - 10 min.

Jackson - 10 min.

Everyone else - 3 min of mop up duty.

So primarily a 7 man rotation with 8 and 9 getting some minutes.

A minor nit to pick. You have the four bigs combining to average 82 mpg. That seems very unlikely to me. I can't see Coach K ever employing a three-big lineup, which is the only way to get more than 80+ mpg for the trio.

If.anything, I think we are more likely to see the bigs get less than 80 mpg with Tatum playing some at the PF spot.

johnb
05-23-2016, 07:59 AM
Grayson - 32 min. Will be the glue that holds all the talent together. Will probably handle the ball quite a lot, out of a need for the team and to develop for the NBA. He might have gotten even more minutes if not for us blowing out teams so often. :)

Jones - 25 min. Same as Grayson, just less explosive.

Tatum - 28 min.

Giles - 27 min. Fewer minutes to start the season, more as he acclimates.

Jefferson - 30 min. Our bigs are young so we will need senior leadership.

Kennard - 20 min. Probably first off the bench, to help with ball handling.

Bolden - 15 min. More than Jeter because a traditional Center game is more valuable given what we have 1-4.

Jeter - 10 min.

Jackson - 10 min.

Everyone else - 3 min of mop up duty.

So primarily a 7 man rotation with 8 and 9 getting some minutes.

I agree that the olympics will probably lead K to want to play his superstars as much as they can handle, and I'm thinking he'll leave in the freshmen fairly late into blowouts for experience. This might lead to a small hit on the minutes for Jones and Jefferson.

Bolden + Jeter + Jackson will likely = > 25 minutes, but I'd say it's winner-take-almost-all all those minutes. I'm assuming Jeter is the one left out of the party and that Jackson will take minutes from the guards to bring this group to 35.

If any of our 6'4" guys is currently morphing into Bobby/Kyrie/or (more possibly) Scheyer, then that person will see all the minutes he can handle.

One thing I like about my estimate is that it's completely based on hearsay and happenstance and without a shred of meaningful information.

Spanarkel
05-23-2016, 10:26 AM
About Frank Jackson:


Draft Express (http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Frank-Jackson-89588/) (Mike Schmitz): "Doesn't always dig in defensively. Can get deep into a stance but lacks versatility on that end of the floor due to his average tools."[/QUOTE]



Hope this doesn't prove to be true. The Draft Express player synopses usually seem well-written and balanced, but I thought Frank's athleticism was clearly above average. Can someone please clarify? Thanks.

ice-9
05-23-2016, 11:03 AM
A minor nit to pick. You have the four bigs combining to average 82 mpg. That seems very unlikely to me. I can't see Coach K ever employing a three-big lineup, which is the only way to get more than 80+ mpg for the trio.

If.anything, I think we are more likely to see the bigs get less than 80 mpg with Tatum playing some at the PF spot.

Oops! You are right. Take out 2 min from Jeter and give it to Kennard.

It depends on how everyone matures, but I'm not sure Tatum will play PF that much. Given our lack of a true PG, I can see this team resembling a more explosive version of the 2010 team, but still one that plays primarily in the half court. A rebounding machine, but instead of mostly kicking out, equal opportunity for the put back.

Or maybe it's a combo of fast breaks whenever possible, and then a half court game of 2 in and 3 out whenever the fast break stalls.

Or maybe Giles proves so dominant in the middle that we play 4 shooters, 1 post? Ahhh, who really knows.

Can't wait for the season to start!

sagegrouse
05-23-2016, 11:04 AM
About Frank Jackson:


Draft Express (http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Frank-Jackson-89588/) (Mike Schmitz): "Doesn't always dig in defensively. Can get deep into a stance but lacks versatility on that end of the floor due to his average tools."



Hope this doesn't prove to be true. The Draft Express player synopses usually seem well-written and balanced, but I thought Frank's athleticism was clearly above average. Can someone please clarify? Thanks.[/QUOTE]

I know something about "average tools," and have met quite a few. But I have no idea what he is talking about. Jackson can clearly run and jump with the best of them. Perhaps something about quickness or positioning.

fraggler
05-23-2016, 11:33 AM
Hope this doesn't prove to be true. The Draft Express player synopses usually seem well-written and balanced, but I thought Frank's athleticism was clearly above average. Can someone please clarify? Thanks.

I know something about "average tools," and have met quite a few. But I have no idea what he is talking about. Jackson can clearly run and jump with the best of them. Perhaps something about quickness or positioning.[/QUOTE]

Usually, when talking about defensive tools, it is about length and lateral quickness. I agree that Frank is a very good run and jump athlete, but his wingspan is simply average and I didn't see much defensive quickness in the few videos I watched. In fact, the same can be said about our entire perimeter defense. When we lost Derryck, we lost the only perimeter player with elite quickness on defense. It will be up to effort and solid communication for us to be strong on perimeter D. We do have very good length and mobility down low, so hopefully that evens out our total defense.

kAzE
05-23-2016, 11:43 AM
Hope this doesn't prove to be true. The Draft Express player synopses usually seem well-written and balanced, but I thought Frank's athleticism was clearly above average. Can someone please clarify? Thanks.

I think it was a poorly written description. You either have the tools or you don't. Frank clearly has the tools, because his quickness and athleticism are elite for a high school senior. If his defense is lacking, I'd assume it's more of a Russell Westbrook type of thing (although Westbrook seems to have turned the corner defensively of late), where his quickness is fine, but he can be beaten because of his poor defensive instincts, or he gambles and gets out of position too easily.

Kedsy
05-23-2016, 12:00 PM
Usually, when talking about defensive tools, it is about length and lateral quickness. I agree that Frank is a very good run and jump athlete, but his wingspan is simply average and I didn't see much defensive quickness in the few videos I watched. In fact, the same can be said about our entire perimeter defense. When we lost Derryck, we lost the only perimeter player with elite quickness on defense. It will be up to effort and solid communication for us to be strong on perimeter D. We do have very good length and mobility down low, so hopefully that evens out our total defense.

I agree, though it's interesting that the two DraftExpress scouts had very different views of Frank's D. Maybe it depended on when they watched him?

Perhaps this defense can be strong like 2010. Nolan Smith was quick with a decent wingspan for his size, but not elite at either. Jon Scheyer and Kyle Singler were neither, though they were both tall for their position. But our great interior positioning with Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas, as well as young shotblockers Miles and Mason Plumlee, made up for the lack of perimeter quickness. According to Pomeroy, that team had a top 10 defense.

This season, Jayson Tatum has similar height and a little longer than Kyle; Grayson Allen and Luke Kennard are both a little shorter with a longer wingspans than Jon; Frank Jackson has similar measurables to Nolan (though he might not be as quick, we'll have to wait and see), and Matt Jones has made a career as a strong perimeter defender. With Harry Giles coming in with a defensive rep and 5th year senior Amile Jefferson anchoring the D (along with young shotblocker Marques Bolden and hopefully improved Chase Jeter) I have hopes of strong Duke defense despite our relative lack of perimeter quickness.

Saratoga2
05-23-2016, 03:11 PM
I agree, though it's interesting that the two DraftExpress scouts had very different views of Frank's D. Maybe it depended on when they watched him?

Perhaps this defense can be strong like 2010. Nolan Smith was quick with a decent wingspan for his size, but not elite at either. Jon Scheyer and Kyle Singler were neither, though they were both tall for their position. But our great interior positioning with Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas, as well as young shotblockers Miles and Mason Plumlee, made up for the lack of perimeter quickness. According to Pomeroy, that team had a top 10 defense.

This season, Jayson Tatum has similar height and a little longer than Kyle; Grayson Allen and Luke Kennard are both a little shorter with a longer wingspans than Jon; Frank Jackson has similar measurables to Nolan (though he might not be as quick, we'll have to wait and see), and Matt Jones has made a career as a strong perimeter defender. With Harry Giles coming in with a defensive rep and 5th year senior Amile Jefferson anchoring the D (along with young shotblocker Marques Bolden and hopefully improved Chase Jeter) I have hopes of strong Duke defense despite our relative lack of perimeter quickness.

I believe coach K will be reluctant to have 3 freshmen on the floor together as they would probably all be on a defensive learning curve, especially early in the season. Since Giles and Tatum are special talents, I believe they will start despite being a bit green defensively, with Jefferson as a C/PF who acts as a defensive quarterback and coach on the floor. Since Allen is clearly the top offensive perimeter threat, he needs to be starting and is an aggressive defensive player (probably around 6'3 1/2" at most). That leaves Jackson, Jones or Kennard on with the others. Kennard is a true 6'5" player who seems to have court awareness and plays reasonably well defensively. To me it is a toss up between Jones and Kennard for the 5th starter. Jackson will get his minutes substituting for Kennard and to a lesser degree for Allen, while Jones may substitute for Tatum. We are in a very fortunate position to have a very long and athletic player in Bolden who can sub for either PF/C position. While green, he certainly has all the tools to be an excellent defensive player. Jeter should not be discounted, as while he started last season rather weakly, he gained confidence as the months moved on and can be expected to be an improved player in the shot blocking and rebounding areas this coming season.

As the season moves on, the experience level will become more equalized and roles become better defined. We have a great coaching staff and superior talent levels at all positions except for PG so this should be a season to remember.

flyingdutchdevil
05-23-2016, 03:17 PM
I believe coach K will be reluctant to have 3 freshmen on the floor together as they would probably all be on a defensive learning curve, especially early in the season. Since Giles and Tatum are special talents, I believe they will start despite being a bit green defensively, with Jefferson as a C/PF who acts as a defensive quarterback and coach on the floor. Since Allen is clearly the top offensive perimeter threat, he needs to be starting and is an aggressive defensive player (probably around 6'3 1/2" at most). That leaves Jackson, Jones or Kennard on with the others. Kennard is a true 6'5" player who seems to have court awareness and plays reasonably well defensively. To me it is a toss up between Jones and Kennard for the 5th starter. Jackson will get his minutes substituting for Kennard and to a lesser degree for Allen, while Jones may substitute for Tatum. We are in a very fortunate position to have a very long and athletic player in Bolden who can sub for either PF/C position. While green, he certainly has all the tools to be an excellent defensive player. Jeter should not be discounted, as while he started last season rather weakly, he gained confidence as the months moved on and can be expected to be an improved player in the shot blocking and rebounding areas this coming season.

As the season moves on, the experience level will become more equalized and roles become better defined. We have a great coaching staff and superior talent levels at all positions except for PG so this should be a season to remember.

Really? I think we are putting a lot of our returning players on pedestals defensively (and don't even get me started on the freshman, sans Giles).

We were ranked #107 in defensive efficiency last year. Why so? Many believe that it's because Ingram was punished at the 4. This probably holds a ton of water. The only reason? Absolutely not. Jones is a strong defender but his injury didn't help him out. Is he a major reason why we sucked definitely? Probably not.

So, what else? MP3? He was good in one-and-one but poor in help D. Thornton? Given that he was our quickest laterally and embraced defense, I'm not so sure.

That leaves Grayson and Kennard as other potential bad defenders. And they were. Grayson wasn't the quickest laterally. He often got blown by in one-on-ones. And Kennard? Arguably the slowest defender. He had good positioning but terrible execution.

So, while I think Jones, Jefferson, and Giles will be plus defenders next year, everyone else needs to prove that they can play defense as well. This, unfortunately, has been the negative face of the OAD era at the University of Duke.

Kedsy
05-23-2016, 03:20 PM
I believe coach K will be reluctant to have 3 freshmen on the floor together as they would probably all be on a defensive learning curve, especially early in the season.

As reluctant as he was with T Jones, Winslow, and Okafor? Or as he was with Ingram, Thornton, and Kennard (who only all three started together once, but were all three on the floor together a fair amount)?

While I agree with your probable starting lineup (Giles, Tatum, Jefferson, Allen, with Matt Jones as the fifth starter), I think the times have changed. Especially if we have four freshman in an eight-man rotation, there will be plenty of times when we have three, or even four, freshmen on the floor together.

flyingdutchdevil
05-23-2016, 03:23 PM
As reluctant as he was with T Jones, Winslow, and Okafor? Or as he was with Ingram, Thornton, and Kennard (who only all three started together once, but were all three on the floor together a fair amount)?

While I agree with your probable starting lineup (Giles, Tatum, Jefferson, Allen, with Matt Jones as the fifth starter), I think the times have changed. Especially if we have four freshman in an eight-man rotation, there will be plenty of times when we have three, or even four, freshmen on the floor together.

Yup. Age doesn't matter. Productivity does.

Plus, you have Amile and Jones as Big Daddy and Grandpa as key contributors and vocal leaders. Grayson will be a leader on the court, regardless if actually named a captain.

So, Kedsy, looks like you've given up on Jeter this year with "four freshman in an eight-man rotation". Not saying I disagree (I will tend to agree until further information), but interesting to point out.

fraggler
05-23-2016, 03:28 PM
Really? I think we are putting a lot of our returning players on pedestals defensively (and don't even get me started on the freshman, sans Giles).

We were ranked #107 in defensive efficiency last year. Why so? Many believe that it's because Ingram was punished at the 4. This probably holds a ton of water. The only reason? Absolutely not. Jones is a strong defender but his injury didn't help him out. Is he a major reason why we sucked definitely? Probably not.

So, what else? MP3? He was good in one-and-one but poor in help D. Thornton? Given that he was our quickest laterally and embraced defense, I'm not so sure.

That leaves Grayson and Kennard as other potential bad defenders. And they were. Grayson wasn't the quickest laterally. He often got blown by in one-on-ones. And Kennard? Arguably the slowest defender. He had good positioning but terrible execution.

So, while I think Jones, Jefferson, and Giles will be plus defenders next year, everyone else needs to prove that they can play defense as well. This, unfortunately, has been the negative face of the OAD era at the University of Duke.

Good team defense can come from average individual defenders if the effort, execution, and communication is there. This is where Amile's presence was really missed. Not only was he a plus individual defender, but he was the experienced communicator needed to guide all of our inexperienced players (including Plumlee). I think with him back, and our returnees having a year under their belts, we will be a better defensive team regardless of each player's individual deficiencies. Like 2015 showed, a team of inexperienced or average individual defenders can come together at crucial moments to play excellent defense. While some may get a little too optimistic this time of year, I'd caution against going too far in the opposite direction as well.

Kedsy
05-23-2016, 03:49 PM
So, Kedsy, looks like you've given up on Jeter this year with "four freshman in an eight-man rotation". Not saying I disagree (I will tend to agree until further information), but interesting to point out.

Well, note that I said, "if we have four freshman in an eight-man rotation," but as I've said in other threads, I can't imagine Marques signing on at this late date if he didn't have a pretty good idea that he'd be getting decent playing time (at least 12 to 15 mpg). Obviously we don't know how much Chase will improve over the off-season (could be a lot), but at this moment I'd say either Coach K plays an unprecedented nine-man rotation (with Marques and Chase as the 8th/9th guys), or Chase becomes the guy who plays 0 to 6 mpg in competitive games and gets most of his minutes in garbage time.

sammy3469
05-23-2016, 04:50 PM
Really? I think we are putting a lot of our returning players on pedestals defensively (and don't even get me started on the freshman, sans Giles).

We were ranked #107 in defensive efficiency last year. Why so? Many believe that it's because Ingram was punished at the 4. This probably holds a ton of water. The only reason? Absolutely not. Jones is a strong defender but his injury didn't help him out. Is he a major reason why we sucked definitely? Probably not.

So, what else? MP3? He was good in one-and-one but poor in help D. Thornton? Given that he was our quickest laterally and embraced defense, I'm not so sure.

That leaves Grayson and Kennard as other potential bad defenders. And they were. Grayson wasn't the quickest laterally. He often got blown by in one-on-ones. And Kennard? Arguably the slowest defender. He had good positioning but terrible execution.

So, while I think Jones, Jefferson, and Giles will be plus defenders next year, everyone else needs to prove that they can play defense as well. This, unfortunately, has been the negative face of the OAD era at the University of Duke.

Yeah but they were right around 40 in defense efficiency when Jefferson went out which I'd argue is the more salient starting point.

I'd also make the point that unlike last year, K will be putting NBA-size and mobility out at every position including subs (however the rotation works) which will be in contrast to last year where Plumlee was exploited on the PnR etc. That size will also help with rebounding and I'd venture a guess that this will end up being one of the better rebounding teams K's had which will limit the second chance points. Even if someone turns out to be Okafor-level bad defensively, he's going to sit as K will have other options.

I'm going to be really shocked if we aren't under that 40 ranking as opposed to that 107th ranking from last.

English
05-23-2016, 05:04 PM
Yeah but they were right around 40 in defense efficiency when Jefferson went out which I'd argue is the more salient starting point.

I'd also make the point that unlike last year, K will be putting NBA-size and mobility out at every position including subs (however the rotation works) which will be in contrast to last year where Plumlee was exploited on the PnR etc. That size will also help with rebounding and I'd venture a guess that this will end up being one of the better rebounding teams K's had which will limit the second chance points. Even if someone turns out to be Okafor-level bad defensively, he's going to sit as K will have other options.

I'm going to be really shocked if we aren't under that 40 ranking as opposed to that 107th ranking from last.

I agree with nearly everything you mention above, with one minor quibble--much like with Okafor, if either Tatum or Giles struggles mightily on defense, I'd wager that K is more likely to hide them on defense with a scheme than bench them too much. Now, that said, I have absolutely no reason to believe either will struggle as much as Jah (and especially not with the defensive reps of each).

ChillinDuke
05-23-2016, 05:25 PM
Really? I think we are putting a lot of our returning players on pedestals defensively (and don't even get me started on the freshman, sans Giles).

We were ranked #107 in defensive efficiency last year. Why so? Many believe that it's because Ingram was punished at the 4. This probably holds a ton of water. The only reason? Absolutely not. Jones is a strong defender but his injury didn't help him out. Is he a major reason why we sucked definitely? Probably not.

So, what else? MP3? He was good in one-and-one but poor in help D. Thornton? Given that he was our quickest laterally and embraced defense, I'm not so sure.

That leaves Grayson and Kennard as other potential bad defenders. And they were. Grayson wasn't the quickest laterally. He often got blown by in one-on-ones. And Kennard? Arguably the slowest defender. He had good positioning but terrible execution.

So, while I think Jones, Jefferson, and Giles will be plus defenders next year, everyone else needs to prove that they can play defense as well. This, unfortunately, has been the negative face of the OAD era at the University of Duke.

I agree with everything you said, and I agree with the general direction you're going.

One important thing to add. Very important. As of right now, on paper, we will have one of the deepest Duke teams in recent memory.

Deep does not imply better at defense. Deep implies better at dealing with foul trouble. Do not overlook the importance of that. With 6, at times 5, healthy players last year - foul trouble was the straw that would break the camel's back. We simply couldn't afford it. Similarly, with a guy like Okafor as the offensive rock of the 2015 team, you couldn't afford to have him out of the game - for a variety of offensive reasons.

I sincerely think (and hope) that with the depth that we have, there will be an ability to play very aggressive defense with an eye toward giving up fouls if we have to. We couldn't do that last year, we couldn't do that with Okafor ("8 is enough"), we couldn't do that with Jabari/Rodney, Seth/Mason (Ryan injured), Austin Rivers, or Nolan/Jon/Andre (no guards/wings).

Some may argue that this is rhetoric that we've created over the years. But I don't believe that. We have, again at least on paper, an incredibly shallow amount of drop-off across all 5 positions and an ability to sub guys into multiple positions both offensively and defensively. If the players even remotely approach the skill level that many of us are expecting out of each of them, I think our defense will be very good. Maybe not Top-10 or Top-20, but very good. More than adequate, much more. And combine that with what should be a Top-5 offense - and watch out.

- Chillin

ETA - I fully realize that there were seasons in which we played highly rated defense among those examples I listed above. I would argue, however, that those that were rated highly were good for reasons that were not "aggressive" defensive teams. The most notable example (IMO) being the Nolan/Jon/Andre championship season.

jv001
05-23-2016, 07:49 PM
I'm expecting the team defense to be much better this coming season. I don't see any above average on the ball defenders returning for this season. Our best on the ball defender has transferred out of the program. But I do think we have some very good team defenders returning(Amile, Matt and Grayson). From most reports, Giles is a terrific defender but that's not at the college level. Jackson looks like he might be the best on the ball defender but that's just the eye test and even that's not against high level college players. I expect our defense to be much better than last years because our best team defensive guy returns(Amile) but I hope he's 100% at the beginning of the year. If so, we should be good, very good. GoDuke!

kAzE
05-24-2016, 11:56 AM
Really? I think we are putting a lot of our returning players on pedestals defensively (and don't even get me started on the freshman, sans Giles).

We were ranked #107 in defensive efficiency last year. Why so? Many believe that it's because Ingram was punished at the 4. This probably holds a ton of water. The only reason? Absolutely not. Jones is a strong defender but his injury didn't help him out. Is he a major reason why we sucked definitely? Probably not.

So, what else? MP3? He was good in one-and-one but poor in help D. Thornton? Given that he was our quickest laterally and embraced defense, I'm not so sure.

That leaves Grayson and Kennard as other potential bad defenders. And they were. Grayson wasn't the quickest laterally. He often got blown by in one-on-ones. And Kennard? Arguably the slowest defender. He had good positioning but terrible execution.

So, while I think Jones, Jefferson, and Giles will be plus defenders next year, everyone else needs to prove that they can play defense as well. This, unfortunately, has been the negative face of the OAD era at the University of Duke.

I'm pretty confident that we will, at the very least be one of the best teams in the ACC at defending the paint next year. A front line with a healthy Amile Jefferson and a healthy Harry Giles is not going to allow easy looks inside. As long we don't gamble too much on the perimeter, I feel quite good about our ability to limit opposing offenses.

It's been proven at all levels of basketball that you don't necessarily need 5 lock down defenders on the court to produce a good defense. A couple of elite defenders can really change everything. A recent Duke example: Our top 7 guys on the 2015 national championship team had 3 very good defensive players: Justise, Amile, Matt; 2 above average defenders: Marshall and Quinn; and 2 very poor defenders: Tyus and Jah. True, that team didn't have an elite defense, but it was very good, especially in the postseason.

We often had this lineup on the floor that year: Jah, Justise, Matt, Quinn, and Tyus. On paper, that seems like a pretty poor team defensively, especially with the lack of size, but having just 2 really good defenders on the wings made a huge difference for our defense in the postseason. There are several examples of really good defensive players masking rather mediocre defenders at the NBA level as well: Draymond Green for Steph Curry, and Kawhi Leonard for Tony Parker to name a couple.

So I'm not really that concerned that we have some guys who aren't the best defensively. As long we have 2-3 guys on the floor who are very good on defense, we should still be extremely hard to score on, and that should be more than enough in most games, because our offense looks like it could potentially be special.

NSDukeFan
05-24-2016, 12:00 PM
...assuming everyone learns their defensive rotations and responsibilities and the team communicates well.

Kedsy
05-24-2016, 12:48 PM
...assuming everyone learns their defensive rotations and responsibilities and the team communicates well.

Which is why, as many have said, that having Amile (our best defensive communicator in awhile) back is so important.

jv001
05-24-2016, 07:14 PM
I'm pretty confident that we will, at the very least be one of the best teams in the ACC at defending the paint next year. A front line with a healthy Amile Jefferson and a healthy Harry Giles is not going to allow easy looks inside. As long we don't gamble too much on the perimeter, I feel quite good about our ability to limit opposing offenses.

A recent Duke example: Our top 7 guys on the 2015 national championship team had 3 very good defensive players: Justise, Amile, Matt; 2 above average defenders: Marshall and Quinn; and 2 very poor defenders: Tyus and Jah. True, that team didn't have an elite defense, but it was very good, especially in the postseason.




I agree with your post regarding the 2015 NCAAT Champs(man, that sounds good). But I will have to say Jah played much better defense toward the end of the season. I suppose part of that was his injury holding him back and his not wanting to get into foul trouble. This years team should be very good defensively and should be rated higher on Kenpom's rating system. GoDuke!

Troublemaker
05-24-2016, 07:43 PM
Really? I think we are putting a lot of our returning players on pedestals defensively (and don't even get me started on the freshman, sans Giles).

We were ranked #107 in defensive efficiency last year. Why so? Many believe that it's because Ingram was punished at the 4. This probably holds a ton of water. The only reason? Absolutely not. Jones is a strong defender but his injury didn't help him out. Is he a major reason why we sucked definitely? Probably not.

So, what else? MP3? He was good in one-and-one but poor in help D. Thornton? Given that he was our quickest laterally and embraced defense, I'm not so sure.

That leaves Grayson and Kennard as other potential bad defenders. And they were. Grayson wasn't the quickest laterally. He often got blown by in one-on-ones. And Kennard? Arguably the slowest defender. He had good positioning but terrible execution.

So, while I think Jones, Jefferson, and Giles will be plus defenders next year, everyone else needs to prove that they can play defense as well. This, unfortunately, has been the negative face of the OAD era at the University of Duke.

One thing missing in your "Why 107 then?" analysis is scheme, the role Coach K and the staff plays. Coach last season in m2m was playing a scheme that stretched our players to their athletic limits and arguably past their limits. The example I used over and over again was how high out MP3 was positioned on pick-n-roll, in order to challenge pull-up 3s from guards freed up by ball screens. Those guards weren't able to get clean looks on their pull-up 3s but, because MP3 was positioned so far out, they often blew by MP3 to the bucket for either layups or offensive rebounds by big men left free by MP3 going to challenge the shot.

Next season, with Harry and Amile at PF and C, we'll be able to play the pick-n-roll much better, even if the scheme remains the same. Harry and Amile should have the quickness to get out high and recover to the bucket, AND they probably could just straight up switch the ball-screens and fare well against most guards, too. Duke's switchability is going way up next season with Harry and Amile as the bigs. And if Duke starts a big perimeter like Grayson, Luke, and Jayson, I could envision some games where Duke will be switching 1 thru 5.

Troublemaker
05-24-2016, 08:03 PM
Well, note that I said, "if we have four freshman in an eight-man rotation," but as I've said in other threads, I can't imagine Marques signing on at this late date if he didn't have a pretty good idea that he'd be getting decent playing time (at least 12 to 15 mpg). Obviously we don't know how much Chase will improve over the off-season (could be a lot), but at this moment I'd say either Coach K plays an unprecedented nine-man rotation (with Marques and Chase as the 8th/9th guys), or Chase becomes the guy who plays 0 to 6 mpg in competitive games and gets most of his minutes in garbage time.

The biggest reason to believe that Coach will play an unprecedented nine-man rotation is because it would be accompanied by another unprecedented event (to my knowledge), which is the use of all 13 scholarships.

The impetus for Coach K using all 13 schollies this season (and possibly for future seasons) is because Duke didn't have enough bodies to conduct regular practices in each of the past two seasons. The staff basically decided that such a shortage would NEVER happen to them again. Good for them.

But any change in the program's modus operandi could and will have downstream impacts on other aspects of the program, as Coach knows. If you're going to have 13 scholarship players on the regular, you're probably going to want to (A) redshirt more often, and (B) play a bigger rotation. We'll see if Coach agrees about (A) and (B) this season.

gam7
05-24-2016, 09:05 PM
The biggest reason to believe that Coach will play an unprecedented nine-man rotation is because it would be accompanied by another unprecedented event (to my knowledge), which is the use of all 13 scholarships.

The impetus for Coach K using all 13 schollies this season (and possibly for future seasons) is because Duke didn't have enough bodies to conduct regular practices in each of the past two seasons. The staff basically decided that such a shortage would NEVER happen to them again. Good for them.

But any change in the program's modus operandi could and will have downstream impacts on other aspects of the program, as Coach knows. If you're going to have 13 scholarship players on the regular, you're probably going to want to (A) redshirt more often, and (B) play a bigger rotation. We'll see if Coach agrees about (A) and (B) this season.

Or ( C ), play a rotation he's accustomed to, but be willing to tolerate the inevitable transfers that result from it over time. (This is not a comment about Jeter; it's more a comment about college basketball players in this day and age.)

All of the posts in this discussion assume that all new players meet or exceed their expectations during their first year. We know what we'll get from Grayson, Amile and Matt. It's very possible that one of the freshmen doesn't quite live up to those expectations (like Jeter last year) and naturally results in a seven or eight-man rotation, depending on whether Jeter meets expectations for improvement.

Ichabod Drain
09-26-2016, 01:26 PM
Thought I would bump this thread since Duke is having an open practice this Saturday morning.

Hopefully we get some good insight on how the team is shaping up.

DukieInBrasil
09-26-2016, 02:01 PM
Thought I would bump this thread since Duke is having an open practice this Saturday morning.

Hopefully we get some good insight on how the team is shaping up.
However, Giles has not been cleared to play yet, afaik. So we'll get insight into the team except for one of the most important pieces.
I don't claim to know anything about Giles or his rehab progress, but it may not be until January that he is fully incorporated into what K wants to do with this team. OTOH, he may be fully incorporated by the time the exhibition games arrive.
My money is on a 5 man rotation, b/c we'll be blowing the opponents out by so much that the remaining 35 minutes of the game will be garbage time, and everybody knows garbage time doesn't count towards the rotation!!!!!!

Troublemaker
09-26-2016, 02:09 PM
Thought I would bump this thread since Duke is having an open practice this Saturday morning.

Hopefully we get some good insight on how the team is shaping up.

GoDuke did stream the open practice the past couple of years, so I'm hoping they'll do that again for out-of-towners. No official word on that yet, though.

richardjackson199
09-30-2016, 06:43 AM
The Sports Illustrated article linked on the front page brings up some interesting things I had not considered. (Same article):

http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2016/09/29/duke-blue-devils-frank-jackson-harry-giles-jayson-tatum

I have heard Tatum compared to Shaun Livingston. I do like the idea of him running some point forward if we don't have better options (esp. if it's true Jayson doesn't shoot 3's well). Crazy mismatches are a good thing on offense, and Coach K has always considered outside-the-box lineups. Regardless, I expect motion, weaves, and pick and roll to get mismatches.

The article also highlights that despite his reputation as a lockdown defender, Matt's defense was a career worst last year. I expect as captain he will bring back the D this year.

Of course more will be clear after we see this team play together. But for wild speculation, what about a lineup of Tatum (1), Jackson (2), Grayson (3), Giles (4), and Bolden (5)? Call it the highest NBA draft stock line-up. That lineup can shoot, run, and defend. On defense Frank could guard their 1, Grayson their 2, and Tatum their 3. Of course that lineup assumes 100% Giles, and all accounts are that he is not ready. So in reality I expect and would love a preponderance of minutes from Amile at 4. Same with Matt at the 3, as long as he is shooting and defending like he is capable. I want as many minutes from Grayson as possible. If Matt is 3, I want Grayson in at 2. Cool Hand Luke comes in as a steady explosion off the bench. I expect Chase and even Javin to earn lots of good minutes. Vrank could surprise. I have no clue what to expect from Jack White. I wouldn't be surprised to see some redshirts this year from this latter group.

In reality, of course I'd love Frank to emerge as a stud point guard. Other studs at their natural position is not a bad thing. Or Grayson might be best bet (I just don't want him compromising the scoring mentality he showed at off guard).

It will be a fun year.

Spanarkel
09-30-2016, 08:02 AM
The Sports Illustrated article linked on the front page brings up some interesting things I had not considered. (Same article):

http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2016/09/29/duke-blue-devils-frank-jackson-harry-giles-jayson-tatum

I expect Chase and even Javin to earn lots of good minutes.


I know it's premature, but I have a good feeling about Javin(RSCI 35). In the Duke Summer Grind tape, he looks(for lack of a better word) "springy," athletically like a taller version of Brian Davis. His Twitter posts reflect a serious/determined mindset. I know it'll be challenging for him to get a lot of minutes with a packed frontcourt, but I'm optimistic he can contribute. I can potentially see him being used to lock down a SF/PF who might be "going off." Any thoughts? Thanks.

Ichabod Drain
09-30-2016, 08:51 AM
Today is the first day of official practice for CBB. :D

And so it begins...

kAzE
09-30-2016, 10:42 AM
I know it's premature, but I have a good feeling about Javin(RSCI 35). In the Duke Summer Grind tape, he looks(for lack of a better word) "springy," athletically like a taller version of Brian Davis. His Twitter posts reflect a serious/determined mindset. I know it'll be challenging for him to get a lot of minutes with a packed frontcourt, but I'm optimistic he can contribute. I can potentially see him being used to lock down a SF/PF who might be "going off." Any thoughts? Thanks.

My (extremely early) assessment of him is a more athletic version of Amile Jefferson. Seriously. I think this guy has the potential to be an absolutely awesome 4 year player. He's 6'9”, 222 pounds with a 7'0” wingspan and an 8'10” standing reach. So, quite literally, the exact same measurements, but obviously much more physically developed than Amile as a freshman.

He's got a reputation for being very disruptive on defense and has a very strong motor, which allows him to gobble up rebounds and get putbacks. The serious/determined mindset comment also gives me hope that he could become the type of leader and glue guy that Amile has been for us all these years. He's still very limited offensively, and has more of a center's skill set in a power forward's body right now (I don't think he'll play a single minute at SF in his entire career), but down the road, he'll potentially become a very, very valuable contributor.

Troublemaker
09-30-2016, 10:51 AM
Today is the first day of official practice for CBB. :D

And so it begins...

Jeff Goodman's tweet this morning (https://twitter.com/GoodmanESPN/status/781835520514994176) about Harry:

Duke (like many schools) will hold its first official practice today. Freshman Harry Giles has been brought along slowly and that will continue to be the plan as he recovers from a torn ACL suffered in the first game of his senior season in high school at Oak Hill Academy. Giles still on track to play in the season-opener on Nov. 11. "I'm definitely confident," Giles said of playing in the opener.

Troublemaker
09-30-2016, 11:02 AM
Amile with a motivational letter to the frosh (https://dukeblueplanet.exposure.co/a-word-to-the-wise) about the start of practice.

4Gen
09-30-2016, 11:26 AM
Amile's letter drives home to me how fortunate one is to be a Duke hoopster. The years flew by me as a mere student. I can only imagine the lightspeed suffered by actual players.

Troublemaker
09-30-2016, 11:15 PM
Two minutes of sights and sounds from the first official practice today: https://twitter.com/Duke_MBB/status/782018041219612672

DukieInBrasil
10-03-2016, 02:12 PM
So Giles is slated to be out until at least the first game. Whether that means he might be available for games in 6 weeks or whether that would be when he can begin basketball activities, idk. It will definitely have an impact on the early-season minutes distribution. Bolden and Jeter would earn most of those minutes, i would guess.

Edouble
10-03-2016, 03:48 PM
So Giles is slated to be out until at least the first game. Whether that means he might be available for games in 6 weeks or whether that would be when he can begin basketball activities, idk. It will definitely have an impact on the early-season minutes distribution. Bolden and Jeter would earn most of those minutes, i would guess.

I think they're up for grabs for almost anyone who is playing well. If playing the best six or seven guys means more small ball, I think we'll see it.

superdave
10-04-2016, 04:34 PM
So Giles is slated to be out until at least the first game. Whether that means he might be available for games in 6 weeks or whether that would be when he can begin basketball activities, idk. It will definitely have an impact on the early-season minutes distribution. Bolden and Jeter would earn most of those minutes, i would guess.


I think they're up for grabs for almost anyone who is playing well. If playing the best six or seven guys means more small ball, I think we'll see it.

It will be interesting after CTC and the exhibition games to see if anyone thinks Javin Delaurier might steal a few minutes while Giles is out.

I always caution that young big men typically have enough foul trouble to effectively limit their minutes. That could be the case for Bolden and Jeter in the early months.

flyingdutchdevil
10-04-2016, 04:43 PM
It will be interesting after CTC and the exhibition games to see if anyone thinks Javin Delaurier might steal a few minutes while Giles is out.

I always caution that young big men typically have enough foul trouble to effectively limit their minutes. That could be the case for Bolden and Jeter in the early months.

I literally had a dream last night.

Starting line-up for the first game was Grayson (duh), Tatum (duh), Amile (duh), M Jones, and...Javin Delaurier. Don't know why. It was a pretty amusing dream. I missed 50% of the games due to work/family and, before I knew it, we were in the Final Four. I literally woke up thinking, "where the hell did the season go?"

Moral of the story: cherish this season. It's gonna be fun.

Moral of the story #2: when you dream of Duke basketball, you clearly have a problem.

flyingdutchdevil
10-04-2016, 04:55 PM
5th year senior Amile ate freshman Amile:

https://twitter.com/dukeblueplanet/status/779021171257999360/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Troublemaker
10-04-2016, 06:02 PM
Various tweets from reporters covering Duke's Media Day:

Stephen Schramm ‏@stephenschramm (https://twitter.com/stephenschramm) 2h2 hours ago (https://twitter.com/stephenschramm/status/783397374148374529)
Before getting to basketball, Coach K takes a moment to remember Larry Stogner, longtime local TV newsman."You could trust what he said."


Joe Mazur ‏@joemazurabc11 (https://twitter.com/joemazurabc11) 2h2 hours ago (https://twitter.com/joemazurabc11/status/783398322736336896)Durham, NC (https://twitter.com/search?q=place%3Abced47a0c99c71d0)
Also touched on the loss of Alan Roses, a Duke researcher who died at age 73. Classy opener by Krzyzewski


Adam Rowe ‏@BlueDevilLair (https://twitter.com/BlueDevilLair) 2h2 hours ago (https://twitter.com/BlueDevilLair/status/783397374580387840)
Coach K expresses sympathies to Larry Stogner and Alan Roses' family.


Brant Wilkerson-New ‏@BrantGNR (https://twitter.com/BrantGNR) 2h2 hours ago (https://twitter.com/BrantGNR/status/783398885884502016)
Coach K says Harry Giles' knee scope has nothing to do with ACL. Six weeks is a conservative estimate for return


ACC Now ‏@accnow (https://twitter.com/accnow) 2h2 hours ago (https://twitter.com/accnow/status/783399405193924609)
Coach K says structurally Giles knees are fine and should not be a chronic problem despite injuries to both. Says arthroscopy was a cleanup.


Stephen Wiseman ‏@stevewisemanNC (https://twitter.com/stevewisemanNC) 2h2 hours ago (https://twitter.com/stevewisemanNC/status/783398697103138816)Durham, NC (https://twitter.com/search?q=place%3Abced47a0c99c71d0)
Coach K said plan is to pace Grayson Allen early in practice. "We know what he can do." Don't want to beat him up in October.


Stephen Schramm ‏@stephenschramm (https://twitter.com/stephenschramm) 17m17 minutes ago (https://twitter.com/stephenschramm/status/783417793173721088)
#Duke (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Duke?src=hash)'s Grayson Allen on being held out of occasional practices in order to rest: "I hate it."


J.B. Ricks ‏@JB_Ricks (https://twitter.com/JB_Ricks) 2h2 hours ago (https://twitter.com/JB_Ricks/status/783399542549020674)
Coach talks about the importance of having Grayson, Amyle & Matt Jones. The team goes through them. They were on court for Natty in '15.


Blue Devil Nation ‏@BlueDevilNation (https://twitter.com/BlueDevilNation) 1h1 hour ago (https://twitter.com/BlueDevilNation/status/783402998248726528)Durham, NC (https://twitter.com/search?q=place%3Abced47a0c99c71d0)
Coach K said there would be a lot of full court pressing on defense. K said that would be the base defense again this season.


J.B. Ricks ‏@JB_Ricks (https://twitter.com/JB_Ricks) 2h2 hours ago (https://twitter.com/JB_Ricks/status/783401055287701504)
Coach K says they're not going to have a conventional PG this year.


Brant Wilkerson-New ‏@BrantGNR (https://twitter.com/BrantGNR) 2h2 hours ago (https://twitter.com/BrantGNR/status/783401226373332992)
K: "I would hope you won't look at our team in a conventional way." Says Duke won't have a traditional PG, likes their versatility


Joe Mazur ‏@joemazurabc11 (https://twitter.com/joemazurabc11) 2h2 hours ago (https://twitter.com/joemazurabc11/status/783402669947904000)Durham, NC (https://twitter.com/search?q=place%3Abced47a0c99c71d0)
Every question with regard to specific position (guard/wing) leads to a lecture by K on how they don't limit roles.Just "basketball players"


Adam Rowe ‏@BlueDevilLair (https://twitter.com/BlueDevilLair) 2h2 hours ago (https://twitter.com/BlueDevilLair/status/783400325277487104)
Coach K: There's no question you'll see the lineup with Amile at center, Jayson, Matt, Grayson, Frank or Luke"


Ken Medlin ‏@kenmedlin (https://twitter.com/kenmedlin) 2h2 hours ago (https://twitter.com/kenmedlin/status/783400379044261892)
K: "Our goal is to win a national championship... We have a team, that if it's healthy, that's a legitimate goal"


Joe Mazur ‏@joemazurabc11 (https://twitter.com/joemazurabc11) 2h2 hours ago (https://twitter.com/joemazurabc11/status/783400296252837889)Durham, NC (https://twitter.com/search?q=place%3Abced47a0c99c71d0)
"Will we have all the talent available... " when it's time to win the national title? That's what coach K says is the biggest question


ACC Now ‏@accnow (https://twitter.com/accnow) 1h1 hour ago (https://twitter.com/accnow/status/783403551297069056)
On subjects of protests, Coach K says will meet as team to discuss it. Says school is about allowing "kids to express their views."


J.B. Ricks ‏@JB_Ricks (https://twitter.com/JB_Ricks) 1h1 hour ago (https://twitter.com/JB_Ricks/status/783403772626276352)
"You're not just an individual. You're part of a group." ~Coach K~


ACC Now ‏@accnow (https://twitter.com/accnow) 1h1 hour ago (https://twitter.com/accnow/status/783403841400279040)
Coach K says once group decision is made, "I'm good with it."

sagegrouse
10-05-2016, 08:45 AM
Various tweets from reporters covering Duke's Media Day:

Stephen Schramm ‏@stephenschramm (https://twitter.com/stephenschramm) 2h2 hours ago (https://twitter.com/stephenschramm/status/783397374148374529)
Before getting to basketball, Coach K takes a moment to remember Larry Stogner, longtime local TV newsman."You could trust what he said."




This list of Tweets is just terrific. Thanks for assembling.

Sage

superdave
10-05-2016, 03:01 PM
Blue Devil Nation ‏@BlueDevilNation (https://twitter.com/BlueDevilNation) 1h1 hour ago (https://twitter.com/BlueDevilNation/status/783402998248726528)Durham, NC (https://twitter.com/search?q=place%3Abced47a0c99c71d0)
Coach K said there would be a lot of full court pressing on defense. K said that would be the base defense again this season.



I have wanted us to use our depth in this way every game for long stretches. Has not happened yet. I am not expecting a lot of it this year, but more would be cool with our wing/backcourt depth.

cato
10-05-2016, 03:08 PM
I have wanted us to use our depth in this way every game for long stretches. Has not happened yet. I am not expecting a lot of it this year, but more would be cool with our wing/backcourt depth.

Well, it hasn't happened since '99-'01, if my increasingly foggy memory is correct.

COYS
10-05-2016, 03:52 PM
Well, it hasn't happened since '99-'01, if my increasingly foggy memory is correct.

I share the skepticism of others about the likelihood of Duke pressing for lengthy stretches of the game. It's certainly possible, but I'd still be surprised.

One reason I'll be surprised, though, is that this amateur armchair analyst feels that the strengths of this year's team will be best served in the half court, anyway. Our big lineup with Marques/Chase/Harry(when healthy) Amile(or Harry), Jayson, Grayson, and Matt/Luke/Frank has a size advantage at almost every position, but not necessarily a quickness advantage. I don't think this team will be lacking in terms of athleticism, but, unless Frank demands starters' minutes and looks as mobile as a young Jason Williams, I don't feel like this team has the classic "tip of the spear" ball-hawk at the point guard spot that all of Coach K's pressing teams of yore had. In fact, I don't think Duke has had a guy like that since Duhon left. We've had superb defenders, of course, but they've all been a bit different from the combo of Duhon and Williams, Avery, or even Wojo.

Instead, I see us using our size advantage at most positions to be more effective in half court D.

Caveat: If we are going to press, I'd wager it means we're going to see a lot of the "small" lineup with Amile, Jayson, and three guards, especially while (if?) Harry is out.

kAzE
10-06-2016, 01:46 PM
I share the skepticism of others about the likelihood of Duke pressing for lengthy stretches of the game. It's certainly possible, but I'd still be surprised.

One reason I'll be surprised, though, is that this amateur armchair analyst feels that the strengths of this year's team will be best served in the half court, anyway. Our big lineup with Marques/Chase/Harry(when healthy) Amile(or Harry), Jayson, Grayson, and Matt/Luke/Frank has a size advantage at almost every position, but not necessarily a quickness advantage. I don't think this team will be lacking in terms of athleticism, but, unless Frank demands starters' minutes and looks as mobile as a young Jason Williams, I don't feel like this team has the classic "tip of the spear" ball-hawk at the point guard spot that all of Coach K's pressing teams of yore had. In fact, I don't think Duke has had a guy like that since Duhon left. We've had superb defenders, of course, but they've all been a bit different from the combo of Duhon and Williams, Avery, or even Wojo.

Instead, I see us using our size advantage at most positions to be more effective in half court D.

Caveat: If we are going to press, I'd wager it means we're going to see a lot of the "small" lineup with Amile, Jayson, and three guards, especially while (if?) Harry is out.

I think this is on point. We've got some great size across the board, and although we are MUCH deeper than we were in 2010, I see us going with a more conservative approach on defense like we did that year to take advantage of the size we have (as well as to mask any quickness deficiencies we are likely to run into). I also think we are going to use a decent amount of zone, because we have the length to do it.

We've had ballhawk type guys come along since Duhon (Nolan Smith, Tyler Thornton, Sean Dockery, Quinn Cook in his senior year), but we haven't had multiple guys like that peaking in the same year defensively, which I believe is what you really need to effectively press.

MChambers
10-06-2016, 02:48 PM
I think this is on point. We've got some great size across the board, and although we are MUCH deeper than we were in 2010, I see us going with a more conservative approach on defense like we did that year to take advantage of the size we have (as well as to mask any quickness deficiencies we are likely to run into). I also think we are going to use a decent amount of zone, because we have the length to do it.

We've had ballhawk type guys come along since Duhon (Nolan Smith, Tyler Thornton, Sean Dockery, Quinn Cook in his senior year), but we haven't had multiple guys like that peaking in the same year defensively, which I believe is what you really need to effectively press.

I agree with you and COYS. I was wondering about K describing the full court press at the "base" defense. What does that mean? Does it mean Duke will play it more than other defenses? Or is there some other more subtle meaning?

I suppose the shorter shot clock might mean that it makes sense to run a conservative press, to make the other team spend a few more of the precious 30 seconds in the backcourt.

Troublemaker
10-06-2016, 03:09 PM
Good interview of Grayson by TSN's Decourcy (http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/news/grayson-allen-duke-basketball-mike-krzyzewski-nba-draft-2017/1ecskoj9vtwye154dkpk4lqew9).

Snippets:



[Coach K] told me this year we were going to have an opportunity to have a really special team. The talent we had, I was going to have fun playing with. And it’s all been true. We have a great team.
It’s nice to score 20 points a game. It’s also nice to end your season with a win. That’s what I’m trying to do this year. If that means I go from scoring 20 points a game to having five guys score around 10-11 points a game, that’s great with me. I know that doesn’t mean that I’ve become worse of a player.

“This year, I don’t think we have a natural point guard,” Allen said. “Me and Frank being the two that most likely being in the PG position — we’re scorers. We look to attack. We don’t have one guy you’d call a point guard. We have a bunch of basketball players out there. We’re not going to be defined to positions.”

Also a quote in there from Coach K saying he's "not one bit" worried about the lack of a point guard.

flyingdutchdevil
10-06-2016, 03:16 PM
Good interview of Grayson by TSN's Decourcy (http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/news/grayson-allen-duke-basketball-mike-krzyzewski-nba-draft-2017/1ecskoj9vtwye154dkpk4lqew9).

Snippets:




Also a quote in there from Coach K saying he's "not one bit" worried about the lack of a point guard.

This is inline with everything that I'm thinking about with regards to this year's team. I'm not worried about health (other than Grayson's bull-in-a-china-shop style) nor the PG position nor leadership nor gelling as a team; I'm worried about the big ole D. It's defense that I think this team will initially struggle with and hopefully get it together during ACC play.

MChambers
10-06-2016, 03:34 PM
Good interview of Grayson by TSN's Decourcy (http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/news/grayson-allen-duke-basketball-mike-krzyzewski-nba-draft-2017/1ecskoj9vtwye154dkpk4lqew9).

What does DeCourcy mean by "at the start of training camp"?

SilkyJ
10-08-2016, 09:50 PM
Various tweets from reporters covering Duke's Media Day:

Stephen Schramm ‏@stephenschramm (https://twitter.com/stephenschramm) 2h2 hours ago (https://twitter.com/stephenschramm/status/783397374148374529)
Before getting to basketball, Coach K takes a moment to remember Larry Stogner, longtime local TV newsman."You could trust what he said."



This list of Tweets is just terrific. Thanks for assembling.

Sage

Agreed! Many thanks. Tried to send many sporks, but have already sent many, so you'll have to wait :)

Edouble
10-09-2016, 01:04 AM
"To me... how I play in practice, that’s how I’m going to play in the game. It’s hard for me to turn that off once I get into the gym. I become a very different person in the gym than I am out. Once I see a loose ball, it’s just instinct. You can’t shut it off. You don’t want to shut it off."

I recall Shane saying pretty much the exact same thing many years ago.

Indoor66
10-09-2016, 07:45 AM
"To me... how I play in practice, that’s how I’m going to play in the game. It’s hard for me to turn that off once I get into the gym. I become a very different person in the gym than I am out. Once I see a loose ball, it’s just instinct. You can’t shut it off. You don’t want to shut it off."

I recall Shane saying pretty much the exact same thing many years ago.

No disrespect, but who are you quoting? My guess is Grayson or Amile.

Newton_14
10-09-2016, 09:28 PM
"To me... how I play in practice, that’s how I’m going to play in the game. It’s hard for me to turn that off once I get into the gym. I become a very different person in the gym than I am out. Once I see a loose ball, it’s just instinct. You can’t shut it off. You don’t want to shut it off."

I recall Shane saying pretty much the exact same thing many years ago.


No disrespect, but who are you quoting? My guess is Grayson or Amile.
Oh I'm quite sure that is a Grayson quote. I have played with guys just like that back in the day in various sports. It's maddening. Outside the lines they were some of the kindest/caring/do anything at all for you type people you could ever meet, yet once they stepped inside the lines to compete they were crazy maniacs that would cut your throat to win. I was uber competitive, putting winning within the rules above all else, yet my competitiveness paled in comparison to those guys.

Edouble
10-10-2016, 02:05 AM
No disrespect, but who are you quoting? My guess is Grayson or Amile.

My fault. Quote is from Grayson. I was following up a string of three posts about a Decourcy article on Grayson, although now that I look back, the thread had another post in between that three post string and my own, so I can see why it would be confusing.

DukieTiger
10-11-2016, 07:35 AM
Forgive me if I missed this, but are we doing the Minutes Prediction contest again this year? I hope so!

Troublemaker
10-11-2016, 11:26 AM
Forgive me if I missed this, but are we doing the Minutes Prediction contest again this year? I hope so!

Neals ran the contest last year and he said that he would do it again in a previous post somewhere on here.

One suggestion, Neals. Let's have the deadline for submissions be before the first exhibition game (Oct 28). And maybe before CTC (Oct 22).

Wahoo2000
10-11-2016, 03:00 PM
Question for you guys from an outsider:

Do you think despite all the depth, that you'll end up using a 6-7 man core rotation into ACC and postseason play? It seems to be K's preference of late (last year's injury issues notwithstanding, even), but you just have soooooo much talented depth (assuming Giles gets back at/near 100% before Jan 1).

I'd guess there are 2 camps on this:

1) Those that think guys like Jackson & Bolden will be good enough to command 15+ mpg, and with that kind of talent down the bench, K will expand the rotation enough that guys like Grayson/Tatum/Jefferson aren't playing near the 34/35mpg mark, instead more like 30 or maybe even a bit under.

2) Those that think the last 4-5 years represent an obvious shift in K's philosophy that chemistry and results are better sticking to a very tight core of your BEST players - even if it means some really talented guys barely contribute at all, and as many as 5 guys may be playing in the 29-35 mpg range.

flyingdutchdevil
10-11-2016, 03:36 PM
Question for you guys from an outsider:

Do you think despite all the depth, that you'll end up using a 6-7 man core rotation into ACC and postseason play? It seems to be K's preference of late (last year's injury issues notwithstanding, even), but you just have soooooo much talented depth (assuming Giles gets back at/near 100% before Jan 1).

I'd guess there are 2 camps on this:

1) Those that think guys like Jackson & Bolden will be good enough to command 15+ mpg, and with that kind of talent down the bench, K will expand the rotation enough that guys like Grayson/Tatum/Jefferson aren't playing near the 34/35mpg mark, instead more like 30 or maybe even a bit under.

2) Those that think the last 4-5 years represent an obvious shift in K's philosophy that chemistry and results are better sticking to a very tight core of your BEST players - even if it means some really talented guys barely contribute at all, and as many as 5 guys may be playing in the 29-35 mpg range.

IMO, I'd be unpleasantly surprised if Coach K uses a 6-7 man rotation. It means that either Bolden, Jackson, or both aren't ready to even contribute. I find that hard to believe, given a) how highly rated they were in high school and b) positive word coming from practice about Jackson and (especially) Bolden's progress and readiness.

I am a firm believer that Coach K will use an 8 man rotation: Allen, Giles, Tatum, Jackson, Kennard, Jones, Jefferson, Bolden. I do not think that Jeter will be a core part of the rotation come ACC play (and by core, I mean >10 min in a competitive game such as UNC, Louisville, or UVA). Again, this is completely based on a healthy Giles. If Giles isn't healthy, then I think Coach K uses a 7 man rotation with Jeter's minutes hovering at around 10 min per game in competitive games.

Troublemaker
10-11-2016, 04:54 PM
Question for you guys from an outsider:

Do you think despite all the depth, that you'll end up using a 6-7 man core rotation into ACC and postseason play? It seems to be K's preference of late (last year's injury issues notwithstanding, even), but you just have soooooo much talented depth (assuming Giles gets back at/near 100% before Jan 1).

I'd guess there are 2 camps on this:

1) Those that think guys like Jackson & Bolden will be good enough to command 15+ mpg, and with that kind of talent down the bench, K will expand the rotation enough that guys like Grayson/Tatum/Jefferson aren't playing near the 34/35mpg mark, instead more like 30 or maybe even a bit under.

2) Those that think the last 4-5 years represent an obvious shift in K's philosophy that chemistry and results are better sticking to a very tight core of your BEST players - even if it means some really talented guys barely contribute at all, and as many as 5 guys may be playing in the 29-35 mpg range.

I would give you an answer but we're going to have a Minutes Contest this season, similar to last season.

I don't want any of my competitors to crib what I'm thinking.

Billy Dat
10-11-2016, 04:56 PM
2) Those that think the last 4-5 years represent an obvious shift in K's philosophy that chemistry and results are better sticking to a very tight core of your BEST players - even if it means some really talented guys barely contribute at all, and as many as 5 guys may be playing in the 29-35 mpg range.

I think 4-5 years is being kind. I feel like he's been coaching a short rotations for 20+!!!

ChillinDuke
10-11-2016, 05:10 PM
Question for you guys from an outsider:

Do you think despite all the depth, that you'll end up using a 6-7 man core rotation into ACC and postseason play? It seems to be K's preference of late (last year's injury issues notwithstanding, even), but you just have soooooo much talented depth (assuming Giles gets back at/near 100% before Jan 1).

I'd guess there are 2 camps on this:

1) Those that think guys like Jackson & Bolden will be good enough to command 15+ mpg, and with that kind of talent down the bench, K will expand the rotation enough that guys like Grayson/Tatum/Jefferson aren't playing near the 34/35mpg mark, instead more like 30 or maybe even a bit under.

2) Those that think the last 4-5 years represent an obvious shift in K's philosophy that chemistry and results are better sticking to a very tight core of your BEST players - even if it means some really talented guys barely contribute at all, and as many as 5 guys may be playing in the 29-35 mpg range.

And I'd guess that your guess is right.

I think there is a consensus around here that K will stick with his 7-man "core rotation" come meaningful post-Jan 1 games. That said, there's a not insignificant minority that believe we will go deeper than usual. And that minority ebbs and flows but generally exists every year.

I personally think the magic number is 8 and could be pushed either way (to 7 or to 9) based not as much on talent nor chemistry nor results. I think it will be based on roles. Admittedly, your definition of talent and/or chemistry and/or results may encompass role playing. But in my preseason thought process, I think the players that will be able to fill the roles needed to surround Grayson, Amile, Tatum, and potentially Giles are the ones that will get off the bench in meaningful post-Jan 1 games. For the avoidance of doubt, I think Matt Jones and Luke Kennard are (almost definitively) two such players. The question to me is what combination of Jeter, Bolden, and Jackson will find a way to contribute given what the team needs. Call it nitpicky, but talent isn't the key. Jeter, Bolden, and Jackson all have talent - in spades. What they need is an ability to adapt to the personnel around them - arguably what every non-all star has to do in the NBA to have a successful career. And can they figure out how to do that, and do it effectively, as freshmen (or sophomores - in Chase's case)?

That's my $0.02.

- Chillin

Tab: $22.58

sagegrouse
10-11-2016, 05:10 PM
Question for you guys from an outsider:

Do you think despite all the depth, that you'll end up using a 6-7 man core rotation into ACC and postseason play? It seems to be K's preference of late (last year's injury issues notwithstanding, even), but you just have soooooo much talented depth (assuming Giles gets back at/near 100% before Jan 1).

I'd guess there are 2 camps on this:

1) Those that think guys like Jackson & Bolden will be good enough to command 15+ mpg, and with that kind of talent down the bench, K will expand the rotation enough that guys like Grayson/Tatum/Jefferson aren't playing near the 34/35mpg mark, instead more like 30 or maybe even a bit under.

2) Those that think the last 4-5 years represent an obvious shift in K's philosophy that chemistry and results are better sticking to a very tight core of your BEST players - even if it means some really talented guys barely contribute at all, and as many as 5 guys may be playing in the 29-35 mpg range.

I think Coach K has a deep team of really good players and will move away from the seven-man rotation that has so far been his typical mode of operations for most of his career. There are somewhat different interpretation of the numbers by some of us, but when Duke had a comparably deep roster in 1998 and 1999 we tended to use more players: 9-10 in 1998 and 8-9 in 1999 (which team lost only two games).

I personally would be surprised, and unpleasantly so, if nine players don't average greater than ten minutes per game. But, of course, I have made this prediction before -- one of these years I'll be right.

ChillinDuke
10-11-2016, 05:22 PM
I think Coach K has a deep team of really good players and will move away from the seven-man rotation that has so far been his typical mode of operations for most of his career. There are somewhat different interpretation of the numbers by some of us, but when Duke had a comparably deep roster in 1998 and 1999 we tended to use more players: 9-10 in 1998 and 8-9 in 1999 (which team lost only two games).

I personally would be surprised, and unpleasantly so, if nine players don't average greater than ten minutes per game. But, of course, I have made this prediction before -- one of these years I'll be right.

To put pen to paper, can someone smarter than me put up a poll? (or maybe we have?)

I'd be curious to see what exactly the consensus is here on the ole Board. I'd offer that the question at hand is "How many players on the Duke roster will average 10.0mpg or more in games on or after December 31 (first ACC game)?"

To be clear, this is not Kedsy's standard definition when it comes to these rotation discussions. Kedsy's Theorem adds the wrinkle that it must be 10.0mpg or more in the same games but decided by 20 points or less. In other words, blowouts don't count. But some around here don't seem to completely agree with the Kedsy Theorem. So I'd offer my question as a slightly simpler metric which gives a nod to those who think averaging 10mpg (regardless of margin of victory) is significant in and of itself while still limiting the set to "games of significance" meaning late season games when the rotation will presumably be more set than it is in the beginning of the season.

Any takers? If not, just flame me and I'll crawl back into my hole.

- Chillin

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
10-11-2016, 05:41 PM
Question for you guys from an outsider:

Do you think despite all the depth, that you'll end up using a 6-7 man core rotation into ACC and postseason play? It seems to be K's preference of late (last year's injury issues notwithstanding, even), but you just have soooooo much talented depth (assuming Giles gets back at/near 100% before Jan 1).

I'd guess there are 2 camps on this:

1) Those that think guys like Jackson & Bolden will be good enough to command 15+ mpg, and with that kind of talent down the bench, K will expand the rotation enough that guys like Grayson/Tatum/Jefferson aren't playing near the 34/35mpg mark, instead more like 30 or maybe even a bit under.

2) Those that think the last 4-5 years represent an obvious shift in K's philosophy that chemistry and results are better sticking to a very tight core of your BEST players - even if it means some really talented guys barely contribute at all, and as many as 5 guys may be playing in the 29-35 mpg range.

I suspect most fans here hope for scenario #1, but expect scenario #2 to unfold come January. That has been the pattern for a very, very long time.

Kedsy
10-11-2016, 05:50 PM
I think 4-5 years is being kind. I feel like he's been coaching a short rotations for 20+!!!

He has been using a basic 7-man rotation (with occasional tweaks to 6 or 8) for all 36 years he has been at Duke.


And I'd guess that your guess is right.

I think there is a consensus around here that K will stick with his 7-man "core rotation" come meaningful post-Jan 1 games. That said, there's a not insignificant minority that believe we will go deeper than usual. And that minority ebbs and flows but generally exists every year.

I personally think the magic number is 8 and could be pushed either way (to 7 or to 9) based not as much on talent nor chemistry nor results. I think it will be based on roles.

Coach K has gone to an 8-man rotation when he's had five top-notch perimeter players (as he does this year, with Grayson, Matt, Luke, Frank, and Jayson, unless Jayson ends up playing majority PF, in which case we'll probably end up with a 7-man rotation). The only year I can think of when Coach K went with an 8-man rotation in which only four were perimeter players was 2010, when there were only four perimeter players on the roster and thus it was almost impossible to play a significant number of minutes with a small lineup in which the regular SF played PF -- that doesn't apply this season.

As far as a 9-man rotation is concerned, in Coach K's 36 years at Duke, in games after January 1 decided by fewer than 20 points, Duke has had 20 games in which nine or more players received 10+ minutes. In the last 25 seasons, there have been nine such games (a little more than one such game every three seasons) [EDIT: and FWIW, none of those games came in 1997-98 or 1998-99]. So if he pushes it (in games that count) to nine this season on a regular basis (or even for more than a few games), it would be totally unprecedented.


EDIT: I apologize if the above represents an overly rigid "Kedsy's Theorem" (as Chillin put it), but personally I don't think a player should be considered to be "in the rotation" just because the team is good enough to have a lot of garbage time, as it was in 1998 and 1999.

-jk
10-11-2016, 06:28 PM
He has been using a basic 7-man rotation (with occasional tweaks to 6 or 8) for all 36 years he has been at Duke.



Coach K has gone to an 8-man rotation when he's had five top-notch perimeter players (as he does this year, with Grayson, Matt, Luke, Frank, and Jayson, unless Jayson ends up playing majority PF, in which case we'll probably end up with a 7-man rotation). The only year I can think of when Coach K went with an 8-man rotation in which only four were perimeter players was 2010, when there were only four perimeter players on the roster and thus it was almost impossible to play a significant number of minutes with a small lineup in which the regular SF played PF -- that doesn't apply this season.

As far as a 9-man rotation is concerned, in Coach K's 36 years at Duke, in games after January 1 decided by fewer than 20 points, Duke has had 20 games in which nine or more players received 10+ minutes. In the last 25 seasons, there have been nine such games (a little more than one such game every three seasons) [EDIT: and FWIW, none of those games came in 1997-98 or 1998-99]. So if he pushes it (in games that count) to nine this season on a regular basis (or even for more than a few games), it would be totally unprecedented.


EDIT: I apologize if the above represents an overly rigid "Kedsy's Theorem" (as Chillin put it), but personally I don't think a player should be considered to be "in the rotation" just because the team is good enough to have a lot of garbage time, as it was in 1998 and 1999.

K plays as deep as he can, until there's a meaningful drop-off in talent vs. wear and tear vs. cohesiveness. Some years that's 6 guys. Usually 7. Occasionally 8. But if the 9th guy doesn't handicap us, I suspect K'd play him, too.

But it's rare that our talent is that evenly spread around. Grayson didn't see much time his frosh year, even though he was solid. He just wasn't quite at the same level as the rest of the team (well, except for that one, fairly meaningful, game...)

-jk

sagegrouse
10-11-2016, 06:50 PM
He has been using a basic 7-man rotation (with occasional tweaks to 6 or 8) for all 36 years he has been at Duke.



Coach K has gone to an 8-man rotation when he's had five top-notch perimeter players (as he does this year, with Grayson, Matt, Luke, Frank, and Jayson, unless Jayson ends up playing majority PF, in which case we'll probably end up with a 7-man rotation). The only year I can think of when Coach K went with an 8-man rotation in which only four were perimeter players was 2010, when there were only four perimeter players on the roster and thus it was almost impossible to play a significant number of minutes with a small lineup in which the regular SF played PF -- that doesn't apply this season.

As far as a 9-man rotation is concerned, in Coach K's 36 years at Duke, in games after January 1 decided by fewer than 20 points, Duke has had 20 games in which nine or more players received 10+ minutes. In the last 25 seasons, there have been nine such games (a little more than one such game every three seasons) [EDIT: and FWIW, none of those games came in 1997-98 or 1998-99]. So if he pushes it (in games that count) to nine this season on a regular basis (or even for more than a few games), it would be totally unprecedented.


EDIT: I apologize if the above represents an overly rigid "Kedsy's Theorem" (as Chillin put it), but personally I don't think a player should be considered to be "in the rotation" just because the team is good enough to have a lot of garbage time, as it was in 1998 and 1999.

Ease up, good buddy. You don't need to tailor the data to fit your hypothesis. In grad school we used to refer to the Bed of Procrustes, or, adjusting the facts to fit the theory. You have good points about the rarity of nine players playing ten minutes in a game. You don't need to edit out wins by more than 20 points.

Wahoo2000
10-11-2016, 06:59 PM
Ease up, good buddy. You don't need to tailor the data to fit your hypothesis. In grad school we used to refer to the Bed of Procrustes, or, adjusting the facts to fit the theory. You have good points about the rarity of nine players playing ten minutes in a game. You don't need to edit out wins by more than 20 points.

It seems reasonable to me. I think if somebody does the research and finds that the "blowouts" are inflating minutes for the marginal players, it gives a much more accurate picture to remove them from consideration. Especially given the fact that there are SO many games, you have a good sample size even when tossing out the blowouts.

Of course, there's also the chance that the effect those "blowouts" have on bench players' minutes is negligible. Seems possible - could be my opposing fan bias, but I feel like K usually sticks with the starters/top 6-7 rotation players EVEN in 20+ point wins.

NSDukeFan
10-11-2016, 08:08 PM
K plays as deep as he can, until there's a meaningful drop-off in talent vs. wear and tear vs. cohesiveness. Some years that's 6 guys. Usually 7. Occasionally 8. But if the 9th guy doesn't handicap us, I suspect K'd play him, too.

But it's rare that our talent is that evenly spread around. Grayson didn't see much time his frosh year, even though he was solid. He just wasn't quite at the same level as the rest of the team (well, except for that one, fairly meaningful, game...)

-jk
I expect this is about right. This is the year the 9th man plays.

He has been using a basic 7-man rotation (with occasional tweaks to 6 or 8) for all 36 years he has been at Duke.



Coach K has gone to an 8-man rotation when he's had five top-notch perimeter players (as he does this year, with Grayson, Matt, Luke, Frank, and Jayson, unless Jayson ends up playing majority PF, in which case we'll probably end up with a 7-man rotation). The only year I can think of when Coach K went with an 8-man rotation in which only four were perimeter players was 2010, when there were only four perimeter players on the roster and thus it was almost impossible to play a significant number of minutes with a small lineup in which the regular SF played PF -- that doesn't apply this season.

As far as a 9-man rotation is concerned, in Coach K's 36 years at Duke, in games after January 1 decided by fewer than 20 points, Duke has had 20 games in which nine or more players received 10+ minutes. In the last 25 seasons, there have been nine such games (a little more than one such game every three seasons) [EDIT: and FWIW, none of those games came in 1997-98 or 1998-99]. So if he pushes it (in games that count) to nine this season on a regular basis (or even for more than a few games), it would be totally unprecedented.


EDIT: I apologize if the above represents an overly rigid "Kedsy's Theorem" (as Chillin put it), but personally I don't think a player should be considered to be "in the rotation" just because the team is good enough to have a lot of garbage time, as it was in 1998 and 1999.
I think this is going to be a year that 9 players play, but I expect it won't meet your criteria for a 9-man rotation. I envision Jeter playing every game, but averaging 7-8 minutes and maybe a couple fewer in "Kedsy games 😀", but I will still consider him part of the rotation. And now, unfortunately, I have given up part of my winning, secret minutes prediction. If I don't win this year, or at least come close, it is because of this, or an unforeseen injury. 😀

I think Coach K has a deep team of really good players and will move away from the seven-man rotation that has so far been his typical mode of operations for most of his career. There are somewhat different interpretation of the numbers by some of us, but when Duke had a comparably deep roster in 1998 and 1999 we tended to use more players: 9-10 in 1998 and 8-9 in 1999 (which team lost only two games).

I personally would be surprised, and unpleasantly so, if nine players don't average greater than ten minutes per game. But, of course, I have made this prediction before -- one of these years I'll be right.
I am always in the hope the 9th and 10th guys get more minutes camp. I also understand having your best players play more minutes tends to increase your chances of winning, so won't complain about coach K's rotation. I don't think 9 guys will play 10mpg, but the team will have at least 9 solid contributors , assuming ,and hoping for, health.

Kedsy
10-11-2016, 09:41 PM
Ease up, good buddy. You don't need to tailor the data to fit your hypothesis. In grad school we used to refer to the Bed of Procrustes, or, adjusting the facts to fit the theory. You have good points about the rarity of nine players playing ten minutes in a game. You don't need to edit out wins by more than 20 points.

I didn't adjust anything. When I first decided to study K's habits regarding the rotation, I wanted to edit out garbage time. From a box score, it's impossible to tell who played at the end of blowouts. And even if you have the play-by-play (which I didn't have for the vast majority of games played over the past 36 years), it was way more work than I was willing to put in. So I figured a cutoff was the best way to do it. I considered a 15 point cutoff, but sometimes a game that ends up with a 15 point margin was close until the last couple minutes, so I moved it up to 20. I then collected the data for a 20-point margin cutoff. I didn't look at a 15-point cutoff and a 25-point cutoff and decide 20 points was the best way to prove my hypothesis. When I started collecting the data, I didn't have a hypothesis. I actually hoped to find evidence that Coach K sometimes plays more than 7 guys. But I didn't form my opinions until after I examined the data. I didn't tailor or adjust anything.

It just makes sense. If someone plays 10 minutes of garbage time in blowouts against directional schools, and never plays in tight games (and, come on, if the final margin is 20+ the game was almost certainly a blowout), then that person cannot fairly be said to be in the rotation.

Seems to me, you want it to be true that Coach K sometimes plays 9- and 10-man rotations, so you're looking at the data in the best light for your own hypothesis. By defining "rotation" as including every minute of every game, you're tailoring the data too. And since common sense and 36 years of observation dictate that who plays in garbage time clearly follows different rules than the rotation in close/important games, I'd argue you're tailoring the data and adjusting the facts way more than I am.

Finally, please note that I didn't say Coach K wouldn't go 9-deep this season. I just said it would be unprecedented.

ChillinDuke
10-12-2016, 08:44 AM
I feel partially to blame here.

- Chillin

sagegrouse
10-12-2016, 09:42 AM
I didn't adjust anything. When I first decided to study K's habits regarding the rotation, I wanted to edit out garbage time. From a box score, it's impossible to tell who played at the end of blowouts. And even if you have the play-by-play (which I didn't have for the vast majority of games played over the past 36 years), it was way more work than I was willing to put in. So I figured a cutoff was the best way to do it. I considered a 15 point cutoff, but sometimes a game that ends up with a 15 point margin was close until the last couple minutes, so I moved it up to 20. I then collected the data for a 20-point margin cutoff. I didn't look at a 15-point cutoff and a 25-point cutoff and decide 20 points was the best way to prove my hypothesis. When I started collecting the data, I didn't have a hypothesis. I actually hoped to find evidence that Coach K sometimes plays more than 7 guys. But I didn't form my opinions until after I examined the data. I didn't tailor or adjust anything.

It just makes sense. If someone plays 10 minutes of garbage time in blowouts against directional schools, and never plays in tight games (and, come on, if the final margin is 20+ the game was almost certainly a blowout), then that person cannot fairly be said to be in the rotation.

Seems to me, you want it to be true that Coach K sometimes plays 9- and 10-man rotations, so you're looking at the data in the best light for your own hypothesis. By defining "rotation" as including every minute of every game, you're tailoring the data too. And since common sense and 36 years of observation dictate that who plays in garbage time clearly follows different rules than the rotation in close/important games, I'd argue you're tailoring the data and adjusting the facts way more than I am.

Finally, please note that I didn't say Coach K wouldn't go 9-deep this season. I just said it would be unprecedented.

I am pretty relaxed about all this. I think you have done great research. Yep, Coach K likes to use seven guys, maybe eight in some circumstances. But you have taken, IMHO (where the H in absentio), a somewhat stringent view of being in the "rotation" -- kinda like the doctrine-oriented Pope Benedict versus the more pastoral Pope Francis. But remember, I am comparing you to a pope. :) I happen to think that the minutes played by players 8, 9 and 10 in prior years shouldn't be so readily discounted. E.g., to look at a few years

1998: Chappell, Burgess and Domzalski
1999: James. Domzalski
2008: Zoubek. King
2009: McClure, Zoubek
These guys played hundreds and hundreds of minutes.

IMHO (where the H is in absentio) you don't need to narrow your definition of "in the rotation so much." And, "garbage time" -- whoa!!! -- ask Coach K about that. I think Duke is all business whenever there is still time on the clock.

I am pulling for Coach K to use nine players regularly this year, and I will readily admit that it could be more than ever before. I will also argue that he has unparalleled depth on the roster. To be specific, how do you not play?

Matt Jones,
Amile Jefferson
Grayson Allen
Luke Kennard (my dark-horse pick for All-ACC)
Jayson Tatum
Harry Giles (well, there's the injury)
Frank Jackson
Marques Bolden
Chase Jeter (he tore up one of the summer leagues -- see below)

And I would love to see any of the others (DeLaurier, Jack White, Vrank, Obi) emerge as productive players, so Duke can play ten regularly.

Anyway, you are doing great work, and ignore my friendly sniping. By the way, here's a recent article from NCAA.com linked on the Front Page:


And, one of Krzyzewski’s tallest teams at Duke could also be one of his deepest, although it’s worth noting none of his five national title teams used more than an eight-man rotation.

Grayson Allen, Jayson Tatum, Amile Jefferson, Matt Jones, Luke Kennard and Harry Giles (if healthy) will surely play plenty. There are at least four more Blue Devils capable of cracking the rotation, including 6-10 sophomore Chase Jeter, who thrived against college competition in an Adidas Nations exhibition this summer and highly touted freshman center Marques Bolden.

Edouble
10-12-2016, 10:17 AM
I am pretty relaxed about all this. I think you have done great research. Yep, Coach K likes to use seven guys, maybe eight in some circumstances. But you have taken, IMHO (where the H in absentio), a somewhat stringent view of being in the "rotation" -- kinda like the doctrine-oriented Pope Benedict versus the more pastoral Pope Francis. But remember, I am comparing you to a pope. :) I happen to think that the minutes played by players 8, 9 and 10 in prior years shouldn't be so readily discounted. E.g., to look at a few years

1998: Chappell, Burgess and Domzalski
1999: James. Domzalski
2008: Zoubek. King
2009: McClure, Zoubek
These guys played hundreds and hundreds of minutes.


They played so many minutes that they ended up transferring.

Wahoo2000
10-12-2016, 12:37 PM
.....To be specific, who(typo edited) do you not play?

Matt Jones,
Amile Jefferson
Grayson Allen
Luke Kennard (my dark-horse pick for All-ACC)
Jayson Tatum
Harry Giles (well, there's the injury)
Frank Jackson
Marques Bolden
Chase Jeter (he tore up one of the summer leagues -- see below)



I think a lot of your rotations are going to depend on 2 things:
1 - The health of Giles
2 - How often K wants to put Matt or Tatum at the 4

If Giles is out for any kind of extended time, who does K choose to replace him? Would he simply plug in Bolden or Jeter, or would he prefer to use a more perimeter-oriented lineup? Even if Giles is 100% or near it by December, how often will anyone besides Giles and Jefferson get frontcourt minutes?

My personal guess based on watching you guys over the years is this (all assuming Giles is healthy):
Of Jackson, Bolden, and Jeter: 1 of those guys is barely going to be solidly in the rotation, 1 will be a fringe rotation player (10ish mpg average, more like 5-7 min or less in "kedsy games"), 1 will hardly play at all (plenty of DNPs mixed with some 5-7 mpg in noncon and maybe slightly more in blowouts). If K is comfortable using 2-big lineups for the vast majority of minutes, one of the bigs will be in the rotation, jackson will get fringe minutes, and the other big will barely play. What I'd guess though, is that Jackson will be solidly in the rotation, Matt/Tatum will each log a handful of minutes in 4-guard lineups, and Bolden/Tatum will battle it out for "fringe minutes" with the loser relegated to mop-up duty and special situations (foul trouble, matchup with really big opponent that requires 2 bigs in the game nonstop, etc).

NM Duke Fan
10-12-2016, 12:45 PM
It has been my impression that Giles will be brought along in a paced, measured way. If that is indeed the case, then perhaps Jeter will be playing porportionally more minutes than would have otherwise been the case. He does have experience, a good level of talent, and apparently a growing skills level, at least if one believe the summer league results. And then as the season evolves we will see how his minutes adjust to Giles hopefully increasing recovery. What I also suspect is that if Jeter were a polished point guard who could play lockdown defense, he would get even more minutes ... and a true nine man rotation would be even more likely.

MChambers
10-12-2016, 01:29 PM
What I'd guess though, is that Jackson will be solidly in the rotation, Matt/Tatum will each log a handful of minutes in 4-guard lineups, and Bolden/Tatum will battle it out for "fringe minutes" with the loser relegated to mop-up duty and special situations (foul trouble, matchup with really big opponent that requires 2 bigs in the game nonstop, etc).
Did you mean Jeter rather than Tatum? I'd be shocked if Tatum doesn't get at least 25 mpg.

Wahoo2000
10-12-2016, 02:37 PM
Did you mean Jeter rather than Tatum? I'd be shocked if Tatum doesn't get at least 25 mpg.

Absolutely meant Bolden/Jeter rather than Bolden/Tatum. Good catch, too late for me to edit I think though.

Thanks!

CDu
10-12-2016, 10:11 PM
They played so many minutes that they ended up transferring.

And perhaps more importantly, Domzalski and (to a lesser degree) Burgess only got significant minutes in the 1998 because Brand missed several weeks with a broken foot.

sagegrouse
10-12-2016, 10:49 PM
And perhaps more importantly, Domzalski and (to a lesser degree) Burgess only got significant minutes in the 1998 because Brand missed several weeks with a broken foot.

Actually, not totally true about Burgess. Game logs show that Burgess was averaging about 17 minutes per game before Brand was injured (11 games) and only 11 MPG while Brand was out (16 games). When Brand returned, however, Burgess's minutes dropped to about eight MPG (and he played very little in the NCAA games).

Domzalski's numbers are weird. He started eight games in a row while Brand was out, averaging 16 MPG. But then, even before Elton returned, he was benched or maybe injured -- I can't remember. Anyway, the last 14 games, beginning with NC State on Feb. 8, he played only 22 minutes -- total. At the beginning of the season, before Elton's injury, Taymon was averaging nine MPG, but he didn't play in a couple of the games.

CDu
10-13-2016, 07:46 AM
Actually, not totally true about Burgess. Game logs show that Burgess was averaging about 17 minutes per game before Brand was injured (11 games) and only 11 MPG while Brand was out (16 games). When Brand returned, however, Burgess's minutes dropped to about eight MPG (and he played very little in the NCAA games).

Domzalski's numbers are weird. He started eight games in a row while Brand was out, averaging 16 MPG. But then, even before Elton returned, he was benched or maybe injured -- I can't remember. Anyway, the last 14 games, beginning with NC State on Feb. 8, he played only 22 minutes -- total. At the beginning of the season, before Elton's injury, Taymon was averaging nine MPG, but he didn't play in a couple of the games.

This gets back to the issue Kedsy talked about with regard to blowouts. Burgess' mpg prior to Brand's injury were inflated by all the early-season blowouts due to the cupcakes in the November/December schedule.

If Brand doesn't get hurt, we would have seen Domzalski's minutes disappear completely (like they did late in the season) with the beginning of conference play. And Burgess' minutes would have dropped to the ~8 (or less) mpg level at that time too.

The injury opened up 25-30 mpg for several weeks of the season that simply wouldn't have been available to Burgess and Domzalski otherwise. Those guys didn't get all of Brand's minutes, but their PT was unquestionably substantially inflated (by probably 15 mpg or so total) while Brand was out. Hence my statement.

fraggler
10-13-2016, 09:09 AM
I just want players ready and able to step in if needed. If it is due to injury, rest, blowout... who cares? Neither Chase nor Obi were able to really help last year, even though they were heavily touted prior to the season. I love that we have some potential depth this year and hope that all the players are healthy, hungry, and ready to contribute no matter when and how their minutes come.

sagegrouse
10-13-2016, 11:11 AM
This gets back to the issue Kedsy talked about with regard to blowouts. Burgess' mpg prior to Brand's injury were inflated by all the early-season blowouts due to the cupcakes in the November/December schedule.

If Brand doesn't get hurt, we would have seen Domzalski's minutes disappear completely (like they did late in the season) with the beginning of conference play. And Burgess' minutes would have dropped to the ~8 (or less) mpg level at that time too.

The injury opened up 25-30 mpg for several weeks of the season that simply wouldn't have been available to Burgess and Domzalski otherwise. Those guys didn't get all of Brand's minutes, but their PT was unquestionably substantially inflated (by probably 15 mpg or so total) while Brand was out. Hence my statement.

Let's see.... First you say that Burgess got his minutes only because Brand was hurt. Then I pointed out that Burgess averaged MORE minutes before Brand was hurt than DURING the time Brand was hurt. Then you maintained that his minutes were only because Duke was playing cupcakes in first 11 games of the season. Well, Burgess averaged MORE minutes per game (14) against power conference opponents BEFORE Brand was injured than minutes per game (12) DURING the time Brand was out. So what is it now? Good gosh, it would be horrible if I were right.

The larger point is that a lot of non-starters played a lot of minutes for Duke under Coach K, and we seem to be going through gyrations to show that they weren't really "in the rotation."

kAzE
10-13-2016, 12:09 PM
Let's see... First you say that Burgess got his minutes only because Brand was hurt. Then I pointed out that Burgess averaged MORE minutes before Brand was hurt than DURING the time Brand was hurt. Then you maintained that his minutes were only because Duke was playing cupcakes in first 11 games of the season. Well, Burgess averaged MORE minutes per game (14) against power conference opponents BEFORE Brand was injured than minutes per game (12) DURING the time Brand was out. So what is it now? Good gosh, it would be horrible if I were right.

The larger point is that a lot of non-starters played a lot of minutes for Duke under Coach K, and we seem to be going through gyrations to show that they weren't really "in the rotation."

I think we can just say that around 10 guys will get regular minutes for the preseason games and first ~10 games of the regular season, excluding tough games, which would be Kansas and Michigan State this year, and perhaps another team that gets hot against us. Then, as we get into conference play, the rotation will be shortened to 8, maybe 9 players, and the postseason rotation will be 7-8 players. (Not counting garbage time minutes in blowouts) That's almost always how it plays out. The only question is: Who are the top 8 players by the end of the season?

Kedsy
10-13-2016, 12:15 PM
Let's see... First you say that Burgess got his minutes only because Brand was hurt. Then I pointed out that Burgess averaged MORE minutes before Brand was hurt than DURING the time Brand was hurt. Then you maintained that his minutes were only because Duke was playing cupcakes in first 11 games of the season. Well, Burgess averaged MORE minutes per game (14) against power conference opponents BEFORE Brand was injured than minutes per game (12) DURING the time Brand was out. So what is it now? Good gosh, it would be horrible if I were right.

I don't really want to get back into this argument, but when you beat power conference opponents UVa by 44, or Villanova by 28, or even Missouri by 23, I don't see why garbage time minutes in those games should mean more than they do against cupcakes. In the two close games Duke played that season before Elton Brand got hurt, Burgess averaged 10.5 mpg.

jimsumner
10-13-2016, 12:47 PM
K tried to go big after Brand broke a foot, starting Burgess or Domzalski in his place. Didn't work. Taymon's last stand was in Chapel Hill, where top-ranked Duke got mauled by Carolina. Total train wreck.

Domzalski and Mike Chappell were pretty bad that night and both went to the bench, pretty much for the rest of their Duke tenures. Carrawell replaced Chappell and Duke went with McLeod and Battier as the post starters until Brand got healthy.

McLeod had an interesting senior season. His playing time had cratered right before Brand went down. By the time Brand came back, McLeod was a first-team All-ACC player, made an All-America team or two and was drafted in the first round.

Does any of that happen if Brand doesn't get hurt?

Indoor66
10-13-2016, 12:50 PM
Does anybody REALLY care?

Matches
10-13-2016, 12:52 PM
The 1998 season was such an odd fish that it's hard to draw too much of anything from it. When Brand got hurt, most assumed Burgess would assume his role and minutes, but that's not really what happened. Domzalski outplayed Burgess and became the starter - for awhile. Taymon played a lot for about a month. Then we got blitzed by UNC and K shook things up, opting for a three-forward starting lineup of Carrawell, Battier & McLeod. Domzalski played much less from then on, and then barely at all once Brand returned. While Taymon definitely did play a significant role that season, he wasn't "in the rotation" in any meaningful way by season's end.

Others may differ, but to me a discussion of how many players will be in the rotation is about how many guys will get significant court time in a competitive game. A 7 man rotation may not necessarily be the same 7 guys all year, but to me the notion of "playing a 9 man rotation" means 9 guys getting significant minutes an in individual game. K almost never does that, and he didn't really do it in 1998 either. Looking at MPG is misleading in that case, because Brand's injury completely changed the team at midseason, and then his return shook things up yet again.

flyingdutchdevil
10-13-2016, 02:08 PM
I think we can just say that around 10 guys will get regular minutes for the preseason games and first ~10 games of the regular season, excluding tough games, which would be Kansas and Michigan State this year, and perhaps another team that gets hot against us. Then, as we get into conference play, the rotation will be shortened to 8, maybe 9 players, and the postseason rotation will be 7-8 players. (Not counting garbage time minutes in blowouts) That's almost always how it plays out. The only question is: Who are the top 8 players by the end of the season?

Can we stop playing the he said/she said game and focus on this post? I completely agree with kaze; it always plays out this way. ANd I like his question!

I'm pretty clear on 6 of the top 7-8 rotation players:
-Allen
-Jefferson
-Jones
-Kennard
-Tatum
-Jackson

Now, Giles gets easily added to this list if his knee is >95%. If Giles, the Duke staff, or the Duke medical team feel that the knee isn't near-perfect, his minutes will be <10min.

I think that Bolden gets added to the list, regardless of Giles's health. If Giles plays 20+ min, Bolden gets 12-15 min. If Giles isn't ready, Bolden gets 20+.

I unfortunately think Jeter doesn't pick up many minutes during the harder games of the ACC (which I consider to be the barometer for the rotation). As kaze mentioned, Jeter (and probably more players) will play during the non-conference (except for Kansas and Mich St) and probably during a lot of blow-out ACC games. But his minutes will likely be below 10, especially in Giles isn't fully healthy.

CDu
10-13-2016, 06:29 PM
I don't really want to get back into this argument, but when you beat power conference opponents UVa by 44, or Villanova by 28, or even Missouri by 23, I don't see why garbage time minutes in those games should mean more than they do against cupcakes. In the two close games Duke played that season before Elton Brand got hurt, Burgess averaged 10.5 mpg.

Exactly. And in those same two games, Domzalski didn't play.

I really don't see how one can argue with the logic that the 350 or so minutes that our starting center missed over 15 games didn't artificially inflate the roles of our backup bigs.

Want a point of reference? We played 3 games against UNC that year: one without Brand and two with him. In the game without Brand, the Burgess/Domzalski duo combined for 19 minutes. In the two UNC games with Brand, Domzalski didn't play and Burgess averaged 7 minutes per game (8 and 6). The presence of Brand represented a 12-minute swing in those guys' PT. I think it is fairly reasonable to say that those guys picked up an extra 10 mpg (at least) over those 15 games as a result of Brand being out.

WillJ
10-18-2016, 04:11 PM
FWIW - thought I'd report on having attended the Saturday practice as part of a fundraiser for the Emily K Center. Perhaps this was discussed elsewhere, but I didn't see it and it seems pertinent to the minutes discussion. These are just impressions and not meant to be a well-organized narrative.


Big men and guards worked on skills separately from 9-10
Practice, mostly run by K and Capel, went from 10-12.
They worked hard in practice, with very little downtime.
They mostly worked on getting organized with specific offense and defense approaches, with occasional sprints worked in.
It seemed like all the players stayed on after 12 to work on shooting.
Grayson didn't practice due, I think, to a sore shoulder - not a biggie. Harry Giles was walking around pretty well for a guy who had had recent surgery.
Matt Jones looked skinny and a bit quicker perhaps, though he's still not an explosive athlete. One of the team's leaders.
Amile Jefferson was also a leader, as you'd expect, and also obviously knows what he's doing. I did not see evidence of a dramatically improved shot.
Frank Jackson IS an explosive athlete....oh my goodness...his combination of speed, strength and ball-handling is reminiscent of Jason Williams. Not saying he'll be that good, but he's got talent.
Luke Kennard looked stronger and shot the ball pretty well. His ball handling is outstanding.
Jayson Tatum is obviously a talented player, though he did not stand out in this practice as a one-and-doner.
Javin Delaurier is very quick and athletic and is going to be a good player for Duke before long.
Jack White looked better than I thought he would, including some good drives. He'll play some, IMO.
Chase Jeter still moves well but did not really get a chance to impress in this practice.
Antonio Vrankovic moves well for a big guy! Seriously. Being tall is not enough at this level, that's for sure.
Marques Bolden is going to be a very good player for us....moves well and has very long arms for his height.
They had seven managers at practice...it's like a game in that sense.
K was very generous with his time at lunch afterwards with the attendees - I came away thinking that he's a very good psychologist.
My 14-year old son and I got our picture taken with K.
My son left the brief visit quite convinced that I had not, in fact, played basketball for Duke.

DukieInBrasil
10-18-2016, 07:27 PM
FWIW - thought I'd report on having attended the Saturday practice as part of a fundraiser for the Emily K Center. Perhaps this was discussed elsewhere, but I didn't see it and it seems pertinent to the minutes discussion. These are just impressions and not meant to be a well-organized narrative.


Grayson didn't practice due, I think, to a sore shoulder - not a biggie. Harry Giles was walking around pretty well for a guy who had had recent surgery.
Matt Jones looked skinny and a bit quicker perhaps, though he's still not an explosive athlete. One of the team's leaders.
Amile Jefferson was also a leader, as you'd expect, and also obviously knows what he's doing. I did not see evidence of a dramatically improved shot.
Frank Jackson IS an explosive athlete...oh my goodness...his combination of speed, strength and ball-handling is reminiscent of Jason Williams. Not saying he'll be that good, but he's got talent.
Luke Kennard looked stronger and shot the ball pretty well. His ball handling is outstanding.
Jayson Tatum is obviously a talented player, though he did not stand out in this practice as a one-and-doner.
Javin Delaurier is very quick and athletic and is going to be a good player for Duke before long.
Jack White looked better than I thought he would, including some good drives. He'll play some, IMO.
Chase Jeter still moves well but did not really get a chance to impress in this practice.
Antonio Vrankovic moves well for a big guy! Seriously. Being tall is not enough at this level, that's for sure.
Marques Bolden is going to be a very good player for us...moves well and has very long arms for his height.
They had seven managers at practice...it's like a game in that sense.
K was very generous with his time at lunch afterwards with the attendees - I came away thinking that he's a very good psychologist.
My 14-year old son and I got our picture taken with K.
My son left the brief visit quite convinced that I had not, in fact, played basketball for Duke.




Thanks for the report! Nice to hear that Giles is moving around at least. From this scouting report it's pretty obvious K is going with an 12-man rotation this year.
Did either Obi or Robinson practice?
One of the things Matt needed to do was get more ripped, not necessarily stronger, but leaner. It's good to hear he looks like he has.
Your comment about Jeter kinda confused me. Was he injured at some point?

WillJ
10-18-2016, 07:47 PM
Thanks for the report! Nice to hear that Giles is moving around at least. From this scouting report it's pretty obvious K is going with an 12-man rotation this year.
Did either Obi or Robinson practice?
One of the things Matt needed to do was get more ripped, not necessarily stronger, but leaner. It's good to hear he looks like he has.
Your comment about Jeter kinda confused me. Was he injured at some point?

Obi was on the stationary bike for what seemed like the whole practice but did not otherwise participate. Not sure why, but I guess it's the knees. A shame.
Should have mentioned Robinson - he is definitely tall and quick. I didn't get a great feel for what he can and cannot do from the practice.
Jeter was not injured.....it's just that there was not a lot of scrimmaging where I could get an idea of how he's doing.

MChambers
10-18-2016, 08:53 PM
Obi was on the stationary bike for what seemed like the whole practice but did not otherwise participate. Not sure why, but I guess it's the knees. A shame.
He recently had clean up surgery on the knee he injured three years ago. He'll be playing again in a month or so.

wk2109
10-26-2016, 11:13 AM
Assuming (hopefully incorrectly) that both Harry and Jayson will miss at least a couple of games to start the year, what will the early-season rotation look like?

My assumption is that we're essentially going to see the same 7-man rotation Duke would have used last season if Amile had been healthy all year (with Marques replacing Marshall; Frank replacing Derryck; Chase replacing Brandon). The three perimeter spots will be filled by Matt, Grayson, Luke and Frank, and the two interior spots will be filled by Amile, Marques and Chase.

If my assumption is correct, that leaves the question of who would back up Amile. Can Chase and Marques play together? Could Javin sneak into the rotation as a backup 4? Would we see more 4-guard lineups?

I think if Amile were healthy all of last season, that 7-man rotation could have gotten a top 2 seed. I also think this year's hypothetical 7-man rotation without Harry and Jayson could be as competitive as last year's. Obviously, there's an offensive drop-off from Brandon to Chase, but I think there's enough perimeter firepower, along with Marques's allegedly advanced post talent, that could compensate for the drop-off on offense. There's also the question of how Marques's defense/rebounding compares to Marshall's. But overall, this hypothetical rotation without Harry and Jayson could still be very good -- of course I'm hoping Harry and Jayson get back soon enough that it remains a hypothetical.

COYS
10-26-2016, 11:45 AM
Assuming (hopefully incorrectly) that both Harry and Jayson will miss at least a couple of games to start the year, what will the early-season rotation look like?

My assumption is that we're essentially going to see the same 7-man rotation Duke would have used last season if Amile had been healthy all year (with Marques replacing Marshall; Frank replacing Derryck; Chase replacing Brandon). The three perimeter spots will be filled by Matt, Grayson, Luke and Frank, and the two interior spots will be filled by Amile, Marques and Chase.

If my assumption is correct, that leaves the question of who would back up Amile. Can Chase and Marques play together? Could Javin sneak into the rotation as a backup 4? Would we see more 4-guard lineups?

I think if Amile were healthy all of last season, that 7-man rotation could have gotten a top 2 seed. I also think this year's hypothetical 7-man rotation without Harry and Jayson could be as competitive as last year's. Obviously, there's an offensive drop-off from Brandon to Chase, but I think there's enough perimeter firepower, along with Marques's allegedly advanced post talent, that could compensate for the drop-off on offense. There's also the question of how Marques's defense/rebounding compares to Marshall's. But overall, this hypothetical rotation without Harry and Jayson could still be very good -- of course I'm hoping Harry and Jayson get back soon enough that it remains a hypothetical.

I agree with you on your analysis. I think that if Harry and Jayson both miss some games, the minutes situation basically resolves itself just as you stated. I also think it means that Javin gets into the game a little as the 8th man against weaker competition. Perhaps even Vrank gets a little court time, as well. I'm not too concerned with our perimeter scoring, even without Jayson. I think Grayson and Luke will be able to fill it up. However, as you mention, it does limit our lineup flexibility. Our small lineup with Jayson at the 4 and Amile at the 5 becomes a tiny lineup if we end up with four guards plus Amile (or another center) on the court. The question you raise about whether or not Marques and Chase can play together is interesting, too. I would bet they don't spend much time on the court together and that in any competitive games, K leans heavily on our four guards, Amile, and whichever of Marques or Chase is viewed as higher in the pecking order. I would bet that if we don't have Jayson and Harry available for the game versus Kansas, we will see something closer to a 6.5/6.75 man rotation with one of Marques and Chase being the sixth man and the other getting 5-8 minutes with perhaps Javin getting 3-5 minutes in the first half. But I could be wrong.

Long term, I think it's safe to say that I'm not sure I've ever seen a Duke season in which the rotation is harder to predict. How easily will Harry being able to regain the form that made him the top player in a stacked high school class? We don't know all the details with Jayson, yet, but will he be at full strength immediately upon his return or will he need time to work back in? Basically, I think the rotation at the beginning of the season could look radically different from the rotation at the end of the season. We will probably have more opportunities to see guys who would normally be at the periphery of the rotation get some burn against tough competition.

ChillinDuke
10-26-2016, 12:53 PM
I agree with you on your analysis. I think that if Harry and Jayson both miss some games, the minutes situation basically resolves itself just as you stated. I also think it means that Javin gets into the game a little as the 8th man against weaker competition. Perhaps even Vrank gets a little court time, as well. I'm not too concerned with our perimeter scoring, even without Jayson. I think Grayson and Luke will be able to fill it up. However, as you mention, it does limit our lineup flexibility. Our small lineup with Jayson at the 4 and Amile at the 5 becomes a tiny lineup if we end up with four guards plus Amile (or another center) on the court. The question you raise about whether or not Marques and Chase can play together is interesting, too. I would bet they don't spend much time on the court together and that in any competitive games, K leans heavily on our four guards, Amile, and whichever of Marques or Chase is viewed as higher in the pecking order. I would bet that if we don't have Jayson and Harry available for the game versus Kansas, we will see something closer to a 6.5/6.75 man rotation with one of Marques and Chase being the sixth man and the other getting 5-8 minutes with perhaps Javin getting 3-5 minutes in the first half. But I could be wrong.

Long term, I think it's safe to say that I'm not sure I've ever seen a Duke season in which the rotation is harder to predict. How easily will Harry being able to regain the form that made him the top player in a stacked high school class? We don't know all the details with Jayson, yet, but will he be at full strength immediately upon his return or will he need time to work back in? Basically, I think the rotation at the beginning of the season could look radically different from the rotation at the end of the season. We will probably have more opportunities to see guys who would normally be at the periphery of the rotation get some burn against tough competition.

Generally agree with everything you said. With one small highlight - if our games look anything like what the blue/white game looked like then I think the 4 "guards" may include Amile.

And who would've predicted that just a few short days ago?

- Chillin

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
10-26-2016, 01:20 PM
So... are we having a MPG contest?

ChillinDuke
10-26-2016, 02:40 PM
So... are we having a MPG contest?

The answer to that is always yes.

Always.

- Chillin

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
10-26-2016, 02:42 PM
The answer to that is always yes.

Always.

- Chillin

Well, I mean... before the season starts?

;)

devildeac
10-26-2016, 02:48 PM
So... are we having a MPG contest?

Mattman91 has already declared himself repeat champion, so I guess the answer is no. :rolleyes:

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
10-26-2016, 03:03 PM
Mattman91 has already declared himself repeat champion, so I guess the answer is no. :rolleyes:

I, for one, welcome our new Mattman overlord.

Troublemaker
10-26-2016, 03:37 PM
So... are we having a MPG contest?


The answer to that is always yes.

Always.

- Chillin

Neals384 scored the contest last season and said he would do it again this season. He hasn't posted in a few weeks but he last visited the board 3 days ago, so I don't think this is an "out indefinitely" situation like Amile last season. I'm going to assume Neals will still score the contest this season.

If so, we just need to start posting our submissions in this thread, and Neals will vacuum everything up into his spreadsheets later.

NSDukeFan
10-26-2016, 05:46 PM
Neals384 scored the contest last season and said he would do it again this season. He hasn't posted in a few weeks but he last visited the board 3 days ago, so I don't think this is an "out indefinitely" situation like Amile last season. I'm going to assume Neals will still score the contest this season.

If so, we just need to start posting our submissions in this thread, and Neals will vacuum everything up into his spreadsheets later.

Should we start a Neals384 vigil?

devildeac
10-26-2016, 05:52 PM
Should we start a Neals384 vigil?

It appears he's missing, not injured, so a vigil would likely not be effective. An amber or silver alert posted on interstate highways throughout the nation would probably be more appropriate.

:p