Unbeatens

[Olympic Fan]

We didn't talk much on this board about last weekend in college football -- an amazing week with five top 10 teams losing.

I just counted up and there are still 14 unbeatens left in college football. Two don't play this weekend -- UConn (which is at Virginia next week) and Cal.

Two play each other -- either Ohio State or Purdue will leave the ranks of unbeatens.

Of the other 10, I'd say three are pretty safe this week: Boston College (at home to Bowling Green); Southern Cal (home to Stanford) and Hawaii (home to winless Utah State).

That leaves seven other unbeatens in some degree of jeopardy (not counting the Ohio State-Purdue loser): Missouri (home to Nebraska); Kansas (at Kansas State); South Florida (at Florida Atlantic); Cincinnati (at Rutgers); Wisconsin (at Illinois); Arizona State (at Washington State); and LSU (home to Florida).

There are also nine 1-A teams without a win -- but only one from a BCS conference. That's Notre Dame, which will be a big (but not hopeless) underdog at UCLA.

Thankfully, Duke's out of that discussion!

[juise]

but only one from a BCS conference. That's Notre Dame

Interesting reading, but I think I have to question you on this one. Did they finally join the Big Televen and I missed it? :)

[Bob Green]

There are also nine 1-A teams without a win -- but only one from a BCS conference. That's Notre Dame, which will be a big (but not hopeless) underdog at UCLA.


Interesting reading, but I think I have to question you on this one. Did they finally join the Big Televen and I missed it? :)

Notre Dame is still a Div 1A Independent, but they are a BCS team. Of course, I realize you already know that.

[DevilAlumna]

That leaves seven other unbeatens in some degree of jeopardy (not counting the Ohio State-Purdue loser): Missouri (home to Nebraska); Kansas (at Kansas State); South Florida (at Florida Atlantic); Cincinnati (at Rutgers); Wisconsin (at Illinois); Arizona State (at Washington State); and LSU (home to Florida).


Missouri -- lose (go Huskers!)
Kansas -- lose
USF -- win
Cincinnati -- win (and hopefully, silences the Rutgers crowd in the process.)
UW -- win
ASU -- win (Boo, WSU, go dawgs!)
LSU -- win in a squeaker.

[Channing]

I have never been a gambler, so I dont really know how to read a line - but I think UW is an underdog against Illinois- getting 2 or 3 points. That seems a little odd to me

[DevilAlumna]

Missouri -- lose (go Huskers!)
Kansas -- lose
USF -- win
Cincinnati -- win (and hopefully, silences the Rutgers crowd in the process.)
UW -- win
ASU -- win (Boo, WSU, go dawgs!)
LSU -- win in a squeaker.

Well, so far I'm 0-2 (Kansas & UW.) :(

[Lavabe]

ASU -- win (Boo, WSU, go dawgs!)


Watch out where the huskies go ...

Sorry to see that another state roots for misspelled canines.

Cheers,
Lavabe

[JasonEvans]

I have never been a gambler, so I dont really know how to read a line - but I think UW is an underdog against Illinois- getting 2 or 3 points. That seems a little odd to me

Or NOT!!!

Illinois 31
Wisconsin 26

-Jason

[DevilAlumna]

Well, so far I'm 0-2 (Kansas & UW.) :(

Okay, well 4 more of my picks are coming through at the last moments (LSU & Cincy).

Nebraska is just stinking up the field, however. I think I can hear, from all the way out here, my dad in DC cursing them for that last thrown interception.... (My old man worked in profanity the way other artists might work in oils or clay. It was his true medium.)

[Olympic Fan]

Amazing, just three of the unbeatens lost Saturday -- and one of those was a team that I thought was safe for another week (Southern Cal). You knew Wisconsin had a tough test and somebody had to lose the Ohio State-Purdue game.

Still 11 1-A unbeatens left -- that's a lot for this late in the season. And understanding how wrong I was about USC-Stanford, I'd say that four are fairly safe this week:

Ohio State (Kent State at home)
Kansas (Baylor at home)
California (Oregon State at home)
Arizona State (Washington at home)

As for the other seven:
LSU is at Kentucky -- LSU should win, but it's their first real road game in six weeks, since going to Miss State to open the season (they've had four home games and a game against Tulane in New Orleans since). Kentucky has a great QB and that will give them a chance.

Cincinnati is at Louisville -- the Cards are still dangerous with Brohm, even though their defense is in collapse.

Boston College at Notre Dame -- the Irish are showing signs of life (their offense sparkled against Purdue and their defense played well at Stanford) and it is in South Bend.

South Florida at Rutgers -- The last two weeks (losses to Maryland and Cincinnati) have taken a lot of steam out of th Rutgers bandwagon, but they're still solid -- and USF didn't look that great last week against CFU.

UConn at Virginia -- The Cavs struggled against Middle Tennessee, but they keep finding ways to win. UConn is pretty much a fraud, despite their rip on Duke. Their other wins came on a bad call at the end of the game against Temple, Maine, Pitt and Akron.

Missouri at Oklahoma -- To me, the best game of the week. Mizzu looked great in crushing Nebraska, but Oklahoma is actually pretty good. BTW: does anybody else think calling THIS Nebraska defense "the Black Shirts" is a desecration of one of college football's great traditions?

We lost a lot of winless teams last weekend, including Notre Dame the last BCS team (okay, I didn't mean to say they were in a BCS conference, but they are considered a BCS team) to get a win -- although several haven't beaten a 1-A opponent yet (I'm talking about you, N.C. State!).

We've got five winless 1-A teams left -- Marshall (they'll get killed this week by Tulsa), Colorado State (a chance at home against Air Force), North Texas (a real good shot at home against a UL-Monroe team that just beat Arkansas State for its first win). Florida International and Utah State are both off this week.

BTW: FIU and North Texas finish their seasons against each other, so at least one of them is guaranteed a win.

[throatybeard]

Marshall sure has fallen a long way in a few short years.

[DevilAlumna]

BTW: does anybody else think calling THIS Nebraska defense "the Black Shirts" is a desecration of one of college football's great traditions?

Yes, I think so too.

For a team that used to pride itself on tough, smashmouth defense, allowing an average 5 yards per rush last night was disgraceful. Bring back Osborne!!

[Channing]

Or NOT!!!

Illinois 31
Wisconsin 26

-Jason

ummm . . . i was saying it was odd they werent bigger underdogs . . . righhhht . . . shows what i know

[Olympic Fan]

It wasn't a lucky 13th for five of our 11 unbeatens.

I expected Missouri to fall to Oklahoma.

And I'm not surprised that Louisville upset Cincinnati; or that Virginia beat Connecticut (they were a fraud); or even that LSU lost at Kentucky (LSU hadn't been away from home all year).

But the one that shocked me was Oregon State's upset of Cal at Cal. I saw it and still don't believe how their freshman QB botched the end of the game.

Six unbeatens left and five are legitimately excellent teams -- all except Hawaii (which has replaced UConn as the biggest fraud on the unbeaten list ... it's a joke that they are in the top 25).

I misread the schedule last week in one regard. South Florida is at Rutgers this coming week. That's a tough one, but USF is looking better and better. In fact, when you compare resumes, it's hard to see how Ohio State was voted No. 1 ahead of these guys -- OSU has beaten Akron, Youngstown State, Kent State, Northwestern, Minnesota, Washington and Purdue -- only Purdue is worth mentioning. USF has won at Auburn (which is kicking butt), beaten West Virginia at home, routed North Carolina (the only team to handily defeat the Heels), Florida Atlantic, and just laid 64 on a very solid Central Florida team (which lost to Texas by a field goal and beat NC State). Okay, they had a gimmie against Elon.

Personally, I'd rank the remaining unbeatens:

1. USF (at Rutgers this week)
2. Ohio State (home to Michigan State this week)
3. Boston College (off this week, but a tough Thursday game at Virginia Tech coming up
4. Arizona State (a week off, then a tough home game with Cal)
5. Kansas (a tough one at Colorado)
6. Hawaii (who cares???, wake me when they play a top 50 team)

[Wander]

Good rankings, it's a complete joke listening to people say that USF doesn't belong in the top 5, and then not present an argument at all other than "They're not in the SEC!!!"

[Troublemaker]

USF belongs in the top 5 for being unbeaten. They're just not one of the 5 best teams in the country, imo. They're just an average offensive team, and don't let their explosion against UCF's very bad defense fool you. Almost every top-20 team has a better o-line than they do, and their receivers are very inconsistent, albeit with good size and speed. They rely so much on Grothe to run around and make plays but that wouldn't work against the fast defenses of tOSU, LSU, Florida, etc. USF has a very, very good defense themselves but this isn't the NFL where you can let one side of the ball carry you. I think they need more balance to be considered a true top-5 team, and I think they'll lose at Rutgers Thursday night.

[Wander]

USF belongs in the top 5 for being unbeaten. They're just not one of the 5 best teams in the country, imo. They're just an average offensive team, and don't let their explosion against UCF's very bad defense fool you. Almost every top-20 team has a better o-line than they do, and their receivers are very inconsistent, albeit with good size and speed. They rely so much on Grothe to run around and make plays but that wouldn't work against the fast defenses of tOSU, LSU, Florida, etc. USF has a very, very good defense themselves but this isn't the NFL where you can let one side of the ball carry you. I think they need more balance to be considered a true top-5 team, and I think they'll lose at Rutgers Thursday night.

Well, it worked well enough against Auburn. I don't really share your thoughts, as I think USF has national title contender written all over them, but it's nice to see people take a reasonable position. If they lose to Rutgers I'll be the first to agree that LSU, Oklahoma, and Oregon should jump ahead of them.

[Troublemaker]

Well, it worked well enough against Auburn. I don't really share your thoughts, as I think USF has national title contender written all over them, but it's nice to see people take a reasonable position. If they lose to Rutgers I'll be the first to agree that LSU, Oklahoma, and Oregon should jump ahead of them.

Well, there's really no shame in losing to Rutgers if it happens. USF's signature win this season was against WVU in front of a raucous, Thursday night home crowd, and it'll be appropriate if Rutgers upends them in front of their own raucous, Thursday night home crowd. As for the Auburn win, the very next week after losing to USF, Auburn lost to Mississippi State at home, and I know you don't consider MSU a contender. Auburn just wasn't playing well at that point in the season. WVU was the signature win and very impressive but USF matches up very well with WVU's spread-option that tries to run by you instead of over you. Rutgers has a more traditional big o-line that tries to maul you to death and pound Ray Rice 30 times a game. It'll be interesting to see how the small USF defense holds up. I think Rice has a big day, and if USF wins, it'll be because they win the turnover battle by at least 2, which is possible, as they are ballhawks.

[Bob Green]

There are five unbeaten teams left:

1. Ohio State (at Penn State)
2. Boston College (at Virginia Tech)
3. Arizona State (home versus Cal)
4. Kansas (at Texas A&M)
5. Hawaii (home versus New Mexico State)

I expect a couple more unbeatens to fall next week.

[mepanchin]

Thing about USF is - if their name was University of Florida or Ohio State University or Oklahoma University - they would be considered an amazing team. Because they're an upstart program, people are even more skeptical of them than they are of someone like Ohio State (who has played no one) or USC (who has beaten no one).

I'm probably biased though, because I'm a USF grad.

[throatybeard]

Worse, everyone is acting like WVU and USF have been "exposed" by suffering road losses in the conference. WVU lost at USF and USF lost narrowly at Rutgers. So it's fine if USC loses to a crappy Stanford team, because they're USC, but Big East teams can't get any respect no matter what they do. Up to and including winning at Auburn, who won AT Florida and was one play from winning at LSU.

I am largely ignorant of ASU. But you'd think they'd be ranked higher by now in this topsy turvy season.

Kansas is also a bit of a mystery.

[mepanchin]

That's sort of the big problem though with college football, isn't it? I remember hearing just the other day about how a pollster even admitted that he had never seen USF play (before Rutgers) and would have voted for LSU over USF because of their tradition.

Who cares about their tradition! Their team is obviously flawed, because they could very well have 3 losses right now! Now, I'm not saying that the SEC isn't better than the Big East, but I also feel that a lot of it is tradition and names that's carrying it's beefy reputation. Tennessee generally appears a joke this year, South Carolina just lost to Vanderbilt (does that say that the SEC is "even deeper" or does that say that maybe South Carolina isn't as good as some think?). Florida has two losses, one to Auburn at home who lost to USF at home (and this week, btw, is ranked higher than USF after our first loss to a very good Rutgers team).

There's no solution but a playoff, which will never happen. This year is probably the best argument for a playoff because there's just no clear top 2 or 3 teams. Even when there were 3 unbeatens, there were clearly 3 teams that were above others... but this year it seems like 8 teams could legitimately be about as good as one another. Too bad 6 of them will get no opportunity to show it off, and will be subject to the whims of uninformed pollsters who go on 50/50 on reputation and actual game performance.

[cspan37421]

Do not the Sagarin, if not other, computer rankings, take a boatload of statistical factors into account, even including the fact that teams are "linked" via the transitive property? Not that you have pure transitivity, but enough to get a good ranking independent of whether some pollster has seen USF?

[mepanchin]

The only computer poll that matters (BCS) depends very heavily on polls, but also looks at strength of schedule, key wins, number of losses, etc.

[pfrduke]

Do not the Sagarin, if not other, computer rankings, take a boatload of statistical factors into account, even including the fact that teams are "linked" via the transitive property? Not that you have pure transitivity, but enough to get a good ranking independent of whether some pollster has seen USF?

Yes, all the computer rankings are designed to be blind - that is, it doesn't matter what the logo on the helmet is, only who they played, and how they did. For what it's worth, here's Sagarin's top 10 (at least the top 10 from him that the BCS uses):

1) Boston College
2) LSU
3) OSU
4) Kansas
5) Arizona St.
6) South Florida
7) Virginia Tech
8) Virginia
9) West Virginia
10) South Carolina

Also, according to Sagarin, Duke has played the 4th most difficult schedule thus far this season, behind Washington (1), Notre Dame (2), and Auburn (3).

[JasonEvans]

Yes, all the computer rankings are designed to be blind - that is, it doesn't matter what the logo on the helmet is, only who they played, and how they did. For what it's worth, here's Sagarin's top 10 (at least the top 10 from him that the BCS uses):

1) Boston College
2) LSU
3) OSU
4) Kansas
5) Arizona St.
6) South Florida
7) Virginia Tech
8) Virginia
9) West Virginia
10) South Carolina

Also, according to Sagarin, Duke has played the 4th most difficult schedule thus far this season, behind Washington (1), Notre Dame (2), and Auburn (3).

3 ACC teams in the top 8 -- but the conference is historically weak and Duke should be winning a lot more games (playing the 4th toughest schedule in the nation). Riiiight, the fact sure seem to bear out those arguments.

---Jason "NOT!!" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Would an undefeated Kansas or Arizona State or BC jump over LSU (or whatever other traditional power is up there) and get into a national title game with Ohio State?

Want a real nightmare for the BCS-- Ohio State loses and we get a Kansas - Boston College national title game. Ha!!

As an aside, Hawaii cannot make the BCS title game even if they are the only undefeated team left in college football, right? Sagarin rates their schedule number 171, which is worse than Division II undefeateds Northern Iowa and North Dakota State. It is far and away the weakest schedule in all of Division I. It is not even close. Memphis, which plays the #126th schedule, is the next easiest schedule in Division I. Hawaii's sked would be bad for a Division II team. It is like a major league team playing nothing but AAA teams.

--Jason "Hawaii's sked is like they have played Cornell or Towson State in every game... by comparison, Duke's schedule is like they have played Clemson every game" Evans

[throatybeard]

I still can't believe KU is hanging in there. Of course, it's also tough to believe Nebraska is 4-5.

[Troublemaker]

KU is actually 19-pt favorites against Nebraska. Did you ever think you'd see that in your lifetime?

[Wander]

A Kansas-Hawaii title game would be the greatest thing to ever happen to the BCS.

[DevilAlumna]

KU is actually 19-pt favorites against Nebraska. Did you ever think you'd see that in your lifetime?

No. <sigh>

I was back in Lincoln last weekend, and the locals that I encountered have basically written off the season as being over, not worth watching. Used to be that on a Saturday during gametime, the streets and stores would be empty (even if it was an away game), but during the Texas game, the city was at its normal (non-game) pace.

It was odd, however, there was no consensus as to whether it was time for Callahan to go. I think folks are so shell-shocked, it's inconceivable to them that this much badness could be all the coach's fault....

[YmoBeThere]

It was odd, however, there was no consensus as to whether it was time for Callahan to go. I think folks are so shell-shocked, it's inconceivable to them that this much badness could be all the coach's fault....

Could some it also be that the former AD was a Nebraska guy? Sort of betrayed by a brother?

[Bob Green]

Boston College and Arizona State have both fallen from the ranks of the unbeaten. Ohio State, Kansas, and Hawaii remain.

[Troublemaker]

Remaining schedules:

tOSU........... Illinois, @Michigan
LSU............. LaTech, @Ole Miss, Arkansas, SEC Championship Game
OU.............. Baylor, @Texas Tech, Okie State, Big 12 Championship Game
Oregon......... @Arizona, @UCLA, Oregon State
Kansas......... @Okie State, Iowa State, Missouri, Big 12 Championship Game

Every team has a tough test remaining on their schedule. Hard to predict what will happen. I'll go with tOSU vs Oregon, but lots of permutations for the BCS championship game here. And it's possible some other 1-loss or maybe even 2-loss teams could climb back into the picture but these are the favorites to make it right now.

[JasonEvans]

No. <sigh>

I was back in Lincoln last weekend, and the locals that I encountered have basically written off the season as being over, not worth watching. Used to be that on a Saturday during gametime, the streets and stores would be empty (even if it was an away game), but during the Texas game, the city was at its normal (non-game) pace.

It was odd, however, there was no consensus as to whether it was time for Callahan to go. I think folks are so shell-shocked, it's inconceivable to them that this much badness could be all the coach's fault....

I saw the final score of the Kansas Nebraska game and I swear to god I thought it was a basketball score.

76-39

I thought it was an exhibition basketball score where KU had played some Division II team from Nebraska. Is there a Nebraska State or Nebraska Tech or something like that? I mean, there was no way this could be an actual football score, right?

--Jason "as an aside, it does not matter what Hawaii does or what other teams do from here on out, no way they make it to a meaningful bowl game... they've played a Division II schedule... not even a strong division II schedule" Evans

[Wander]

--Jason "as an aside, it does not matter what Hawaii does or what other teams do from here on out, no way they make it to a meaningful bowl game... they've played a Division II schedule... not even a strong division II schedule" Evans

If Hawaii wins out they'll most likely make it to a BCS bowl game.

[Channing]

Doesnt a non-BCS conf team automatically make a BCS bowl if they finish the season in the top 14 in the BCS?

Well, Hawaii is currently sitting at number 14 with their toughest game still ahead of them (to help their BCS ranking).

Win out and they are in.

[Wander]

You need to be in the top 12. But yeah, if they win out, they'll almost certainly get there, maybe as soon as next week if they beat Fresno State and UConn loses to Cincy.

[JasonEvans]

If Hawaii wins out they'll most likely make it to a BCS bowl game.

I think they must be top 12, not top 14 to automatically qualify. They may get there, but it is far from certain... even if they win out.

What's more, my point (poorly stated) was that they would not play in one of the top 2 or 3 really significant BCS games. If they get in, I see them playing one of the earliest BCS games against one of the lower-rated BCS teams. With BC's loss, I think it is fairly likely that Hawaii would play the ACC champ or the Big East champ. They won't get a crack at the very top teams, IMO.

It is a pity cause it would be kinda fun to see how Hawaii would do against at top team-- though I think Hawaii would get killed by one of those teams with a tough D like LSU for example.

--Jason "someone is gonna pull Boise State out to bash me on the head, I am sure" Evans

[DevilAlumna]

I saw the final score of the Kansas Nebraska game and I swear to god I thought it was a basketball score.

76-39

I thought it was an exhibition basketball score where KU had played some Division II team from Nebraska. Is there a Nebraska State or Nebraska Tech or something like that? I mean, there was no way this could be an actual football score, right?



Yeah, thanks for rubbing it in, JE. But, I think on SportsCenter last night, they actually referred to a KU/NU basketball game where the score was something like 76-38. (Not Nebraska Tech (non-existent) or Purdue State Teacher's college, but the actual U of N @ Lincoln.)

They also stated, over and over and over and.... well, that 76 points is the most anyone's EVAR hung on Nebraska at home, in the history of the team. And that history goes back to the 1890's. OUCH.

39's an amazing point output for a Nebraska team running old Osborne offenses, but the defense under Callahan is just pathetic. I think Omaha Central High could put together something better than this poor excuse for the once-mighty blackshirts. And could we please stop playing the super-slow, 5'9" Grixby at corner?! ARGH!!! :mad:

This rant brought to you by my three football teams going 0-fer yesterday.

[throatybeard]

KU-MU in KC is shaping up to be a heck of a game.

[DukeDawg]

All this talk reminds me of why we need a freakin 8-team playoff. Keep everything the same...allow 5 conference title winners as automatic bids...and allow 3 others into the other spots.

A much better option then the crap we have now.

As for the unbeatens, I don't see Kansas winning out no matter what...whether it is at OSU, MU, or OU in the Big XII. Even if they do win out, will the computers pass them by LSU? I dunno.

[Troublemaker]

All this talk reminds me of why we need a freakin 8-team playoff. Keep everything the same...allow 5 conference title winners as automatic bids...and allow 3 others into the other spots.

A much better option then the crap we have now.

As for the unbeatens, I don't see Kansas winning out no matter what...whether it is at OSU, MU, or OU in the Big XII. Even if they do win out, will the computers pass them by LSU? I dunno.

They'll pass LSU. The voters make up two-thirds of the BCS standings and they won't let an undefeated Kansas team that has beaten Missouri and OU get left out for a once-beaten LSU (it'll become moot when Florida beats LSU by 20 in the SEC Championship game anyway).

[Bob Green]

Illinois 28 - (#1) Ohio State 21. This season has been full of upsets.

[JasonEvans]

So, if undefeated Kansas can win out against 9-1 Missouri and then 9-1 Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, would they leap over Oregon or whoever and get into the National Title game? I have to think they would.

A tall order for them, but if KU goes unbeaten in the Big 12, they have to get a shot at the national title, right?

-Jason "I think they lose and set up an LSU-Oregon national title game" Evans

[jimsumner]

I confess I don't know what to make of Kansas. I was telling everyone yesterday at the football game that Oklahoma State would take them down, so pretty clearly I'm underrating them. But I'll really be stunned if they beat Oklahoma. Missouri is no pushover either.

BTW,, if somebody had told you five years ago that Kansas and Missouri would play a football game in November with national title implications, would you have called the authorities? I mean, such a person would be dangerous. :)

[throatybeard]

I don't think anybody is leapfrogging LSU if they don't lose again. Georgia needs help to make the SECCG because UTK has tiebreak over them. UTK has to beat UK and Vandy to face off against LSU. LSU also still has Arkansas, another mysterious team sort of like UK.

Oregon has one big advantage over all of the others in the top 5, which is that they don't have to mess with a conference championship game.

[CDu]

All this talk reminds me of why we need a freakin 8-team playoff. Keep everything the same...allow 5 conference title winners as automatic bids...and allow 3 others into the other spots.

A much better option then the crap we have now.

As for the unbeatens, I don't see Kansas winning out no matter what...whether it is at OSU, MU, or OU in the Big XII. Even if they do win out, will the computers pass them by LSU? I dunno.

Slippery slope argument. All you do by expanding it to 8 teams is change the debate from "who are the #2 and #3 teams?" to "who are the #8 and #9 teams." And it's much harder to differentiate the #8 from #9 than it is the #2 from #3. Honestly, if you make the tournament any bigger, you just make the regular season largely moot, and there'll just be so much less riding on those games.

I actually prefer the system as it is now, because it means every game matters.

[crimsondevil]

Slippery slope argument. All you do by expanding it to 8 teams is change the debate from "who are the #2 and #3 teams?" to "who are the #8 and #9 teams." And it's much harder to differentiate the #8 from #9 than it is the #2 from #3. Honestly, if you make the tournament any bigger, you just make the regular season largely moot, and there'll just be so much less riding on those games.

I actually prefer the system as it is now, because it means every game matters.

It does change the debate - but that's the point. The #8 vs 9 argument is much less important than 2 vs 3. To take the extreme example, in March people always talk about the tournament "snubs", but it doesn't matter for determining a champion since a bubble team isn't going to win it all. And even if they did, then it's a good thing they were included...

The regular season still matters in an 8-team playoff since only 2 losses can definitely put a team out of the top 8.

[Troublemaker]

I think Kansas will almost certainly make it if they win out, beating Missouri and OU along the way (very plausible they win both, as neither Mizzou nor OU appear to be great teams). The media will make it their cause to put KU in the championship game. Can you imagine Skip Bayless having a coronary if KU is still third but undefeated?

[JasonEvans]

I don't think anybody is leapfrogging LSU if they don't lose again. Georgia needs help to make the SECCG because UTK has tiebreak over them. UTK has to beat UK and Vandy to face off against LSU. LSU also still has Arkansas, another mysterious team sort of like UK.

Oregon has one big advantage over all of the others in the top 5, which is that they don't have to mess with a conference championship game.

I'll say this-- from watching a fair number of SEC games this year it is clear to me that whoever wins that conference is the best team in the land. If LSU manages to go through the SEC with only 1 loss, they must play for the national title. The SEC East is just off-the-charts tough in my mind. 5 of the 6 teams in the East would (IMO) have a very decent chance at winning the ACC, Big East, or Big 12 title.

-Jason "the SEC's great success this year clearly shows that you get what you pay for ;)" Evans

[throatybeard]

This from DavidsonCountyDog on Gene'sPage:

"Only 6 teams have at least three wins against Sagarin top 30 rated teams: LSU has 5, and Illinois, Oregon, Florida, Georgia and Mississippi State have 3 each. "

I still can't believe LSU lost at Lexington.

[MulletMan]

I actually prefer the system as it is now, because it means every game matters.

Unfortunately not every game matters equally. Ohio State lost this week and now has no realistic shot at getting to the NC game. Oklahoma, however, who laid a stinker against Colorado is essentially playing as an undefeated team. Whose loss was worse, OSU against Illinois (8-3 with losses to #5 Mizzou, #21 Micigan and Iowa) or OU against Colorado (5-6 with loses to #5 Mizzou, #3 Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State, Florida State and #8Arizona State)? The common opponent being Mizzou who beat Illinois by 6, and Colorado by 45.

So I ask, does every game mean something? Oklahoma's egg against Colorado is completely forgotten at this point. Ohio State's loss will cost them a shot at the NC.

It doesn't matter how you lose, it only matters WHEN you lose. That is my biggest beef with the current system.

[MulletMan]

I still can't believe LSU lost at Lexington.

Throaty, I love you, but LSU is horrendously overeated. Weren't they suopposed to have this vaunted D that could stop anyone? Look at these scores:

October 6 No. 9 Florida W 28-24
October 13 at No. 17 Kentucky L 43-37
October 20 No. 17 Auburn W 30-24
November 3 at No. 17 Alabama W 41-34

Not to mention the fact that in at least 3 of those games they were living on borrowed time. They could easily be 7-3 right now. Easily.

[throatybeard]

Throaty, I love you, but LSU is horrendously overeated. Weren't they suopposed to have this vaunted D that could stop anyone? Look at these scores:

October 6 No. 9 Florida W 28-24
October 13 at No. 17 Kentucky L 43-37
October 20 No. 17 Auburn W 30-24
November 3 at No. 17 Alabama W 41-34

Not to mention the fact that in at least 3 of those games they were living on borrowed time. They could easily be 7-3 right now. Easily.

Point taken w/r/t Bama. That UK score is distorted by several overtimes though. Holding UF to 24 is respectable. I don't know what to make of Auburn, haven't all year. LSU trashed Virginia Tech as well.

But it's not how you win em, it's whether you win em.

[Olympic Fan]

It's not really important whether or not Kansas can catch LSU in the polls -- all that matters is to get in the top 2 and thus win a spot in the title game.

The real mess is going to come if LSU and Oregon win out, then Kansas beats Missouri and Oklahoma to finish as the only real unbeaten (not counting Hawaii since they've basically played one of the 3-4 weakest schedules in the nation).

We'd have three legitimate candidates for the title game (maybe more if West Virginia and Ohio State finish with one loss).

Personally, I don't think it will happen. Don't ask me to pick the loser, but from LSU-Arkansas, Kansas-Missouri, Kansas-Oklahoma and Oregon's last three games (two on the road), I'll bet at least one, maybe two more upsets.

Not saying it will be simple -- I can see where if Oklahoma beats Kansas, their case would be just as good as LSU's or Oregon's -- all one-loss teams. And I agree that the timing of a loss seems to hurt more than the quality of the loss -- the argument that Ohio State's loss to Illinois hurt them worse than Oklahoma's loss to a worse Colorado team or LSU's loss to a worse Kentucky team or West Virginia's loss to a worse South Florida team because it was LATE doesn't make sense.

We need a playoff ... but not a plus one or even an eight-team playoff. If every other NCAA Division can stage a 16-team playoff, then that's what we need. Yeah, we'd argue about the 15th-16th-17th team, but that would be like basketball, where we're debating the merits of teams that have little real chance to win it all anyway.

(PS: make the regular season end during the Thanksgiving weekend ... then play the first round games on the home fields of the top eight seeds early in December ... take a break for exams and come back with the four quarterfinal games on New Year's -- that leaves four teams and two weeks to go beyond what we have now).