Top Grossing Movies of Summer 2016

[JasonEvans]

So, if you do not know how it works at this point, I don't know what rock you have been living under.

We are voting for the 5 films that make the most money at the domestic boxoffice this summer. FIVE! I think the best way to explain to all of you how many votes you make would be with a quote from the sacred Book of Armaments and Internet Polls:

"First shalt thou take the Holy Poll. Then, shalt thou count to five. No more. No less. Five shalt be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be five. Six shalt thou not count, neither count thou four, excepting that thou then proceed to five. Seven is right out. Once at the number five, being the fifth number to be reached, then, hit submit on thy Holy Poll of Antioch and pray no one else votes for the same five as doing so will be naughty in My sight."

The contest starts with films released in the month of May and will include any film released through the end of August. We will close the contest once it is clear that our top 5 is set (we are calling this the Mission Impossible: Outta Compton rule), even if it means waiting until late September or October for a final result.

So, start voting now. Polling will close on Saturday April 30th.

Here are your contenders, ordered by release date:

Captain America: Civil War (5/6)
Neighbors 2 (5/20)
Alice: Through the Looking Glass (5/27)
X-men: Apocalypse (5/27)
Teenaged Mutant Ninja Turtles 2 (6/3)
Now You See Me 2 (6/10)
Finding Dory (6/17)
Independence Day: Resurgence (6/24)
The BFG (7/1)
The Secret Life of Pets (7/8)
Ghostbusters (7/15)
Star Trek: Beyond (7/22)
Jason Bourne (7/29)
Suicide Squad (8/5)

-Jason "I think this is a really tough year... a few locks but a ton of other very strong contenders" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I see 3 locks... 1 very likely... and then 8 (YES, 8) other films that have a very, very reasonable shot at being the #5 film. Picking my top 5 will be harder this year than it ever is (and that doesn't even include the dark horse, come from nowhere to make an impact films).

[Olympic Fan]

First to vote!

Nothing surprising ... pretty much went with the franchise stuff here.

I am looking forward to the Now You See Me sequel (I liked the original a lot), but I don't think that makes the top 5.

[NashvilleDevil]

This may be the toughest year to pick, I think the 2 Marvel movies are locks after that there are 8+ movies, like Jason said, that could round out the top 5. I am looking forward to taking my kids to The Secret Life of Pets but not as sure about Finding Dory. Other than those 4 everything else looks run of the mill and there may be a movie that makes the top 5 with $150M.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Marvel, Marvel, Pixar, Pets, Star Trek.

Easy money.

(First attempt on one of these polls)

[JasonEvans]

It is worth noting that though it appears we have 2 Marvel films here, the X-Men franchise is owned by Fox and those films are produced by Marvel Entertainment which is not nearly the same thing as Marvel Studios. Kevin Feige, the genius who has produced all the Iron Man, Cap, Thor, Avengers, Guardians, etc films is not connected to the X-Men films in any way. Marvel Studios are the folks who did the mediocre Amazing Spiderman films and the wretched Fantastic Four last summer.

That said, the X-Men folks did hit homeruns with First Class and Days of Future Past, so they seem to have a good idea how to make a good X-Men flick.

-Jason "far from being a summer where we struggle to have a 5th film make $150 mil, I think we will see 5-7 films all finish between $150 and $225 mil in total boxoffice... plus a few others who make $300 mil+" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I am now going to make a case for every film in our poll


Captain America: Civil War - yeah, so the previous films in the Marvel universe have done fairly well
Neighbors 2 - The original made $150 million and this brings back the same cast but with a large female cast added into the mix (which may help with both the female audience and young males who like watching raunchy females)
Alice: Through the Looking Glass - the original made $334 mil at the domestic boxoffice. This could do only 2/3rds as much business and still make well over $200 million
X-men: Apocalypse - the last X-Men film made $233 mil and was very well-received. This could easily build on that
Teenaged Mutant Ninja Turtles 2 - The last one made $191 mil at the boxoffice. Betting against Michael Bay in the summer time is a bad idea. Stephen Amell could be a significant addition to the cast
Now You See Me 2 - The original made $117 mil at the boxoffice but the film has been very successful on cable and streaming services. There is a good bit of demand for this sequel.
Finding Dory - Pixar... nuf said. But, if taht is not nuf said, Finding Nemo made $380 mil in 2003, which is probably like making $500 mil today
Independence Day: Resurgence - The orignial is one of the most popular sci-fi films of all time. It made $306 mil in 1996, which is like $600 mil today!
The BFG - Stephen Spielberg's track record making fantasy films is pertty good. There is buzz that this could be this generation's ET
The Secret Life of Pets - Cute animal animation has a strong track record. So does Universal Animation. Directed by the same guy who did Despicable Me (1 and 2) and The Lorax, all 3 of which easily passed $200 mil
Ghostbusters - Paul Feig has a great track record for comedies. There's a huge built-in audience for this reboot of a truly beloved film.
Star Trek: Beyond - Pervious 2 Star Trek movies: $257 mil and $228 mil. Director Justin Lin is the guy who made huge bank out of the Fast and Furious movies
Jason Bourne - Dourne Ultimatum made $207 mil in 2007, like $250+ mil today. Matt Damon is an even bigger star today.
Suicide Squad - DC made a terrible film a few weeks ago that has grossed $311 mil so far. Buzz is that this is far superior to BvS. Trailers have been awesome.



-Jason "I honestly only see maybe 2 films in that list that have no shot" Evans

[luburch]

I am now going to make a case for every film in our poll


Captain America: Civil War - yeah, so the previous films in the Marvel universe have done fairly well
Neighbors 2 - The original made $150 million and this brings back the same cast but with a large female cast added into the mix (which may help with both the female audience and young males who like watching raunchy females)
Alice: Through the Looking Glass - the original made $334 mil at the domestic boxoffice. This could do only 2/3rds as much business and still make well over $200 million
X-men: Apocalypse - the last X-Men film made $233 mil and was very well-received. This could easily build on that
Teenaged Mutant Ninja Turtles 2 - The last one made $191 mil at the boxoffice. Betting against Michael Bay in the summer time is a bad idea. Stephen Amell could be a significant addition to the cast
Now You See Me 2 - The original made $117 mil at the boxoffice but the film has been very successful on cable and streaming services. There is a good bit of demand for this sequel.
Finding Dory - Pixar... nuf said. But, if taht is not nuf said, Finding Nemo made $380 mil in 2003, which is probably like making $500 mil today
Independence Day: Resurgence - The orignial is one of the most popular sci-fi films of all time. It made $306 mil in 1996, which is like $600 mil today!
The BFG - Stephen Spielberg's track record making fantasy films is pertty good. There is buzz that this could be this generation's ET
The Secret Life of Pets - Cute animal animation has a strong track record. So does Universal Animation. Directed by the same guy who did Despicable Me (1 and 2) and The Lorax, all 3 of which easily passed $200 mil
Ghostbusters - Paul Feig has a great track record for comedies. There's a huge built-in audience for this reboot of a truly beloved film.
Star Trek: Beyond - Pervious 2 Star Trek movies: $257 mil and $228 mil. Director Justin Lin is the guy who made huge bank out of the Fast and Furious movies
Jason Bourne - Dourne Ultimatum made $207 mil in 2007, like $250+ mil today. Matt Damon is an even bigger star today.
Suicide Squad - DC made a terrible film a few weeks ago that has grossed $311 mil so far. Buzz is that this is far superior to BvS. Trailers have been awesome.



-Jason "I honestly only see maybe 2 films in that list that have no shot" Evans

Also JJ Redick is in TMNT (I believe he was also in The Boss which was just released) so another reason to vote for it :)

[mkirsh]

Went with 3 comic book movies (Cap, X-Men, and Suicide Squad) and 2 animated films (Dory and Pets). Was most torn on Independence Day, but not sure how it beats any of the 5 that I ended up selecting. I think the Star Trek movies have been trending down (despite personally enjoying them), and not sure what is left to tell with Jason Bourne, even with Matt Damon back at the helm. Usually there is an adult comedy that makes a run, but don't see Neighbors or Ghostbusters, or something not on the official list like Sausage Party or Bad Moms, being contenders.

[BD80]

I am now going to make a case for every film in our poll


...
The BFG - Stephen Spielberg's track record making fantasy films is pertty good. There is buzz that this could be this generation's ET...



...

Ohhh. Big FRIENDLY Giant. Now I get it.

[bjornolf]

So torn here. I LOVE Suicide Squad, but if they're already reshooting it to make it less dark, I'm terrifed. And heartbroken. I hope that, like with Star Wars IV, they'll have the full, original version on the blu ray as a special feature (Greedo shot first my patoot!). Better than seeing it as disjointed deleted scenes.

[Olympic Fan]

I am now going to make a case for every film in our poll



The BFG - Stephen Spielberg's track record making fantasy films is pertty good. There is buzz that this could be this generation's ET



Is it? He certainly hit the jackpot with Close Encounters and ET early in his career. You can count the Indiana Jones and Jurassic Park films too.

But he's also generated a lot of blah fantasy films -- Hook barely did $119 million ... Always was a flop ($43 million) ... I don't know if you'd count AI as fantasy film, but it did a mere $78 million. The recent Tintin did well internationally, but made just $77.5 million domestically. Does War Horse count? That one made just $79 million domestically.

Spielberg has actually struggled since Saving Private Ryan in 1998.

He's directed 11 films since and six have made less than $100 million domestically. His only two big box office films were the terrible Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull ($317 domestically) and War of the Worlds ($234 million in the US). Lincoln did well for what it was, earning $182 million ... Catch Me If You Can made $164 million.

Maybe BFG will be another ET or Close Encounters, but I think the odds are against it.




Suicide Squad - DC made a terrible film a few weeks ago that has grossed $311 mil so far. Buzz is that this is far superior to BvS. Trailers have been awesome.



I posted in another thread that $311 million was actually pretty lame for a much-hyped film featuring the two biggest stars in the comic book universe. Personally, I think DC has done a TERRIBLE job putting its heroes on screen (with the exception of Nolan's three Batman films). Suicide Squad doesn't have the widespread cachet that Superman/Batman/Spiderman/Captain America has. Unless DC somehow does a better job than it has ever done, I'd be surprised if this blows up. Of course, you could have said the same for Guardians of the Galaxy a couple of years ago ... but I have a lot more faith in Marvel's screen efforts than DC -- I think based on track record of the two comic book franchises on screen, that's valid.

(But what do I know ... I've never won this contest!)

[JasonEvans]

(But what do I know ... I've never won this contest!)

I said I was making a case for every film in the poll... I did not say I believed the case I was making ;)

[OldPhiKap]

-Jason "I honestly only see maybe 2 films in that list that have no shot" Evans

Don't worry, I'll pick 'em.

[gurufrisbee]

After Daddy's Home, I find myself wondering if it's possible for a film not in the list to make it. I think so, but I doubt it this time. It's tempting.

Of course I was also feeling good about the Lone Ranger cleaning up once.....

[YmoBeThere]

I don't think I ever gotten more than 3 out of 5 or 4 out of 6...so I probably should have written in Sausage Party for the heck of it.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Went with

Captain America
Finding Dory
Pets
BFG
IDR

I am guaranteed to go at least 1 for 5.

[JasonEvans]

We are voting for the 5 films that make the most money at the domestic boxoffice this summer. FIVE! I think the best way to explain to all of you how many votes you make would be with a quote from the sacred Book of Armaments and Internet Polls:

"First shalt thou take the Holy Poll. Then, shalt thou count to five. No more. No less. Five shalt be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be five. Six shalt thou not count, neither count thou four, excepting that thou then proceed to five. Seven is right out. Once at the number five, being the fifth number to be reached, then, hit submit on thy Holy Poll of Antioch and pray no one else votes for the same five as doing so will be naughty in My sight."

Hey, theschwartz, you only voted for 1 movie (Independence Day 2). FIVE was your target number.

-Jason "It is your fault Cap is not at 100%!!" Evans

[BD80]

Can I vote for Cap 5 times and be a winner if it grosses more than the next 5 combined?

[gurufrisbee]

Can I vote for Cap 5 times and be a winner if it grosses more than the next 5 combined?

* interested in the answer.....for Winter 2017 with Episode VIII

[davekay1971]

I'm sorry, but we all know that "BFG" stands for "Big" "ahem" "Gun". Duh.

Now if only I could remember if that was from the Duke Nukem or Doom games. Or maybe Quake. They kinda run together after so many years...

I voted for Cap, X-Men, Dory, Pets, and Bourne. Went safe and predictable...I think.

[BandAlum83]

I see 3 locks... 1 very likely... and then 8 (YES, 8) other films that have a very, very reasonable shot at being the #5 film. Picking my top 5 will be harder this year than it ever is (and that doesn't even include the dark horse, come from nowhere to make an impact films).

I took through the looking glass as my dark horse...probably not wise. I'm thinking finding dory now.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

For the first time in my voting for movies career I feel 100% confident in my picks

Finding Dory
Cap 3
Suicide Squad
Pets
X-Men

They should all kill it this summer, I think suicide squad may give Cap 3 a run for its money but we will see. There sure has been a lot of buzz and for female comic book fans to finally have Harley Quinn on the big screen will be huge. Will also be the first time The joker, Quinn and Batman are together on the big screen. Yes I am super excited.

[YmoBeThere]

I voted for Cap, X-Men, Dory, Pets, and Bourne. Went safe and predictable...I think.

You made the same picks as I and so are destined to do no better than 3 out of 5. Unless of course, the world has indeed turned upside down.

[gurufrisbee]

I went Captain, Dory, Star Trek, Alice, and Ind Day. I only feel good about two of them. Part of me really wanted to go darkhorse with Warcraft.

[bjornolf]

I'm sorry, but we all know that "BFG" stands for "Big" "ahem" "Gun". Duh.

Now if only I could remember if that was from the Duke Nukem or Doom games. Or maybe Quake. They kinda run together after so many years...

I voted for Cap, X-Men, Dory, Pets, and Bourne. Went safe and predictable...I think.

BFG 9000 was originally in Doom, but I believe other games had it later. Two of the later Quake games had the BFG 10K.

[JasonEvans]

BFG 9000 was originally in Doom, but I believe other games had it later. Two of the later Quake games had the BFG 10K.

http://vignette3.wikia.nocookie.net/openarena/images/7/73/BFG10K_arena_03.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20100512203914

That is one BFG!!

[FerryFor50]

I posted in another thread that $311 million was actually pretty lame for a much-hyped film featuring the two biggest stars in the comic book universe. Personally, I think DC has done a TERRIBLE job putting its heroes on screen (with the exception of Nolan's three Batman films). Suicide Squad doesn't have the widespread cachet that Superman/Batman/Spiderman/Captain America has. Unless DC somehow does a better job than it has ever done, I'd be surprised if this blows up. Of course, you could have said the same for Guardians of the Galaxy a couple of years ago ... but I have a lot more faith in Marvel's screen efforts than DC -- I think based on track record of the two comic book franchises on screen, that's valid.

(But what do I know ... I've never won this contest!)

You are discounting the draw of the Joker. I think Suicide Squad does well.

[Doria]

You are discounting the draw of the Joker. I think Suicide Squad does well.

I agree. I don't think it competes with Civil War or Apocalypse, but the buzz from the trailers has been positive. Joker + Harley Quinn are very popular. You don't need to have Batman to sell a comic book movie. (Also, the biggest comic book star would be Spider-Man, and it isn't even particularly close; but that doesn't negate Oly's point about Batman and Superman.)

[brevity]

Hollywood Stock Exchange (http://www.hsx.com/security/feature.php?type=upcoming) values (as always, for comparison purposes only):

$454.91 Captain America: Civil War
$264.21 Finding Dory
$258.22 Suicide Squad
$221.86 X-Men: Apocalypse
$178.01 Star Trek Beyond
$174.70 Independence Day: Resurgence
$160.33 Jason Bourne
$148.68 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows
$146.14 The Secret Life of Pets
$141.63 Alice Through the Looking Glass
$125.83 The BFG
$105.43 Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising
$_89.95 Ghostbusters
$_61.48 Now You See Me 2

$102.76 Ice Age: Collision Course
$_93.75 The Conjuring 2
$_77.05 Warcraft
$_76.68 The Angry Birds Movie
$_72.99 Central Intelligence
$_70.72 Pete's Dragon


You don't need to have Batman to sell a comic book movie.

Maybe, but Batman will appear (http://screencrush.com/suicide-squad-set-batman-jokers-car/) in Suicide Squad. (ETA: AIRFORCEDUKIE does mention this above.)

[Doria]

Those are interesting numbers. I'm kind of surprised by the relative positions of ST: B and Jason Bourne. The other top movies I think are more or less in line with what I'd expect, though Apocalypse seems a bit undervalued, given DoFP's pretty strong showing (I'm not saying I think it'll be as good as that movie, though I hope it will).

Yeah, I know Batman is slated to at least cameo (presumably in flashback? I have no idea), but my comment was simply in response to Oly's points comparing Suicide Squad to BvS, etc. Truthfully, I think putting him in this movie is probably a smart move, but doesn't look particularly confident about the property's ability to stand on its own. I do think it's kind of ironic that the movie about villains looks like a lighter, more fun movie than the one about heroes.

[Wander]

You are discounting the draw of the Joker. I think Suicide Squad does well.

I agree as well. Villains are one of the few things that the otherwise great Marvel movies have not really mastered yet (female characters are the other). DC has the Joker, Harley Quinn looks great, and while I know a lot of people did not like BvS, I think they did a better job teasing Darkseid as a terrifying villain than Marvel has done with Thanos. So I can see the villain-centered Suicide Squad being the best DC movie (aside from the Nolan trilogy) so far.

[FerryFor50]

Those are interesting numbers. I'm kind of surprised by the relative positions of ST: B and Jason Bourne. The other top movies I think are more or less in line with what I'd expect, though Apocalypse seems a bit undervalued, given DoFP's pretty strong showing (I'm not saying I think it'll be as good as that movie, though I hope it will).

Yeah, I know Batman is slated to at least cameo (presumably in flashback? I have no idea), but my comment was simply in response to Oly's points comparing Suicide Squad to BvS, etc. Truthfully, I think putting him in this movie is probably a smart move, but doesn't look particularly confident about the property's ability to stand on its own. I do think it's kind of ironic that the movie about villains looks like a lighter, more fun movie than the one about heroes.

I'm hearing Batman plays a large role.

[Doria]

I'm hearing Batman plays a large role.

Oh, that's interesting. I guess I'd just assumed it would be in a flashback for the Harley Quinn story. I hadn't heard he had a large part. Thanks for the info!

[Olympic Fan]

Allow me to defend my skepticism for Suicide Squad.

My main objection was that DC has not done a good job of translating its comics to the screen. I mentioned Batman vs. Superman as an example of what should have been a historic blockbuster -- a film built around the two single most iconic figures in the comic book universe -- but was instead a critical disaster and a box office disappointment (even at $300 million plus ut was far less than it should have been).

So Suicide Squad -- a far less widely known comic -- has the Joker ... and Batman?

So what, DC will mess it up. They still haven't gotten Superman right ... and except for Nolan's three films, Batman has been less impressive than it should have been.

PS: Curious ... will we get Ben Affleck as Batman in this one ... ugh! And who will be the joker -- I doubt it will be Jack Nicholson and I know it won't be Heath Ledger. Maybe Cesar Romero will reprise the role ... oops, he's gone too.

[BD80]

.. who will be the joker -- I doubt it will be Jack Nicholson and I know it won't be Heath Ledger. Maybe Cesar Romero will reprise the role ... oops, he's gone too.

Jared Leto - who just might be "Closer to the Edge" than all the rest.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Jared Leto - who just might be "Closer to the Edge" than all the rest.
Remember...images of his Joker (not his doing, but the production folks) were lambasted and ridiculed when released.

I see SS being a money maker, but not top 5. Unless every other character (which there are lots of) is really powerful, my prediction is this will be a strong first weekend followed by word of mouth that it was too many in one pot and watch it on DVD over and over to figure out what happened. All I hear about is Harley and the Joker...and nothing about the other folks. (And from what I've seen from trailers, I'm not that thrilled by those two.)

[Olympic Fan]

Jared Leto - who just might be "Closer to the Edge" than all the rest.

I loved Leto in Dallas Buyers Club ... I'd say more, but I live in North Carolina and I'm afraid a comment would violate HB2.

[JasonEvans]

I see SS being a money maker, but not top 5. Unless every other character (which there are lots of) is really powerful, my prediction is this will be a strong first weekend followed by word of mouth that it was too many in one pot and watch it on DVD over and over to figure out what happened. All I hear about is Harley and the Joker...and nothing about the other folks. (And from what I've seen from trailers, I'm not that thrilled by those two.)

Less than half the people have voted for it, so you may be right, but I am pretty sure I am going to vote for it and here are the reasons why.

1) Comic Book - Frankly, we are clearly in the golden age of comic book movies. Everything is busting out with audiences. It is not like Ant Man or Guardians of the Galaxy or Deadpool are big-name, mainstream comic book characters.
2) Will Smith & Common - The one demo where comic book movies traditionally have struggled a bit is the urban/AfAm audience. Well, this comic book movie stars a pair of well-known members of that community. That should help it gain attention and theaters in places that usually are not fertile ground for comic book movies.
3) David Ayer - He did a really nice job directing his past two films, End of Watch and Fury. I think he's a talented screenwriter too (he wrote both of those and also penned Training Day and the original The Fast and the Furious). As a writer/director, I trust him to make something pretty decent. I shudder to think what a decent comic book movie can do after the success of several DC movies that weren't even decent.
4) The DC Universe - I'm pretty sure, almost certain, that there will be connections to the larger DC universe and to the Justice League films that are coming. DC would be freaking crazy not to include some strands that will impact those films. As a result, you will likely see comic book fans turning out to make sure they don't miss anything important or anything that will provide hints as to where the DC universe is headed. Again, BvS was dreadful and it made well over $300 million (and it wasn't even a summer release).
5) They are "due" - How many duds can DC make in a row? Don't they have to at least luck into a good film at some point? I mean, aside from Nolan's work (which was largely out of DC's control as they just let Nolan run with what he wanted to do), when was the last time DC made even an average film? Are you ready for a truly shameful list? Here they are in chronological order (not counting smaller DC properties like Red or Jonah Hex or graphic novels like V for Vendetta and Watchmen, we are just talking traditional comic book super hero movies here):


BvS - 2016
Man of Steel - 2013
Green Lantern - 2011
Superman Returns - 2006
Catwoman - 2004
Batman and Robin - 1997
Batman Forever - 1995
Batman Returns - 1992
Batman - 1989
Superman IV: The Question for Peace - 1987
Supergirl - 1984
Superman III - 1983
Superman II - 1981
Superman - 1978

There's Batman in 1989 and Superman I and II back in the Carter administration, but aside from those, that's a pretty lousy track record. Like historically bad. So, while some may contend that DC just constantly messes it up, I am going to say that at some point they have got to get it right... and I am willing to bet that Suicide Squad will be the one to break the streak.

-Jason "note: I have not officially voted yet, so this whole post could be misdirection by me ;) " Evans

[BD80]

... They are "due" - How many duds can DC make in a row? Don't they have to at least luck into a good film at some point? ...

So Adam Sandler is going to win an Oscar?

[Wander]

So Adam Sandler is going to win an Oscar?

Rutgers will win the national championship next year. Deandre Jordan will shoot 15-15 from the free throw line in a playoff game. Jeb Bush will win both California primaries. Sansa Stark will fall in love, get married, have kids, and live out the life of her dreams. #JasonEvanslogic

(just kidding JE, I agree Suicide Squad will do great)

[wilson]

BvS - 2016
Man of Steel - 2013
Green Lantern - 2011
Superman Returns - 2006
Catwoman - 2004
Batman and Robin - 1997
Batman Forever - 1995
Batman Returns - 1992
Batman - 1989
Superman IV: The Question for Peace - 1987
Supergirl - 1984
Superman III - 1983
Superman II - 1981
Superman - 1978

There's Batman in 1989 and Superman I and II back in the Carter administration, but aside from those, that's a pretty lousy track record. Like historically bad. So, while some may contend that DC just constantly messes it up, I am going to say that at some point they have got to get it right... and I am willing to bet that Suicide Squad will be the one to break the streak.

-Jason "note: I have not officially voted yet, so this whole post could be misdirection by me ;) " EvansI am not big on the current comic book movie craze. I haven't seen any of the Captain America or Avengers movies, I fell asleep in the theater during whichever Iron Man I saw (I don't even remember which one it was...something about crashing in a barn or something?), and I was uncomfortably bored during Guardians of the Galaxy. But for whatever reason, I like Batman movies. The whole Nolan series was, in my opinion, terrific, and I also liked 1989 Batman and 1992 Batman Returns. Batman Forever was uneven, but had some interesting moments and performances (Jim Carrey being the most memorable IMO), and then I haven't seen any of the others.
I don't really know why I posted this, except I guess to say that I'm an anomaly in that I like a fair number of these DC entries (Superman I and II were not bad, I thought, and I also didn't not like Superman Returns in 2006), but I just don't get the rapt fascination with all the Marvel movies.

[NashvilleDevil]

Ranked in order of confidence I went with the following:

1. Captain America
2. X-Men
3. Pets
4. Dory
5. Jason Bourne

I really think Dory is going to disappoint but Pixar and the Summer go hand in hand. I picked Jason Bourne because I am a fan of the 3 Matt Damon Bourne movies and this one looks pretty BA.

[BD80]

I'm glad "Criminal" wasn't in the contest. It would be like me to pick it.

How could you go wrong? Ryan Reynolds is hot again. Gal Gadot, aka Wonderwoman, rising star ... take this one to the bank!

[NashvilleDevil]

So this dropped today and I am excited about seeing it even if the story is like all the other Greengrass/Damon Bourne movies.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F4gJsKZvqE4

[mkirsh]

So this dropped today and I am excited about seeing it even if the story is like all the other Greengrass/Damon Bourne movies.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F4gJsKZvqE4

I didn't vote for this because it looks like the same exact movie as all previous Bourne films, but like so many others I could say the same about (Jurassic Park, Fast and the Furious, Mission Impossible, Transformers, etc) I'm sure it will do well and I'll look stupid (again)

[BD80]

My thinking, if can it can be called as much:

1. Cap - lead pipe cinch, the studios are staying away from May, leaving Cap to clinch first before any contender even gets started
2. S Squad - Has August pretty much to itself, 1 week after Bourne, and 2 weeks after Star Trek, 2 months after X-men, so not the oversaturation of comic book movies at this point. Good buzz.
3. X-Men - Has June pretty much to itself, contending only with Alice, which I don't think will keep up with the original. Who isn't tired of Johnny Depp?
4. Finding Dory - mid June release, 2 weeks before Pets, Ghostbusters, and Ice Age are released in consecutive weeks. If the quality of 1st is there, easily in top 5.
5. Independence Day - Late June release, not much competition over the 4th holiday (BFG). Could be top movie for 3 straight high volume weeks. Needs to be similar quality as 1st.

6. Secret Life of Pets - hate to leave a kids flick out of the summer contest, but Dory, Ice Age and to an extent Ghostbusters will steal some Box Office. Probably dumb move considering what Despicable Me has done. Looks like a film I would enjoy, so figured it won't be top 5.
7. Star Trek - Not sure how many screens it will get: Cap, X-Men, ID, BFG, Tarzan will still be showing, and directly competing with Ghostbusters. The next week Bourne comes out, and then Suicide Squad. Too much competition to make top 5.

[Udaman]

Voted....already mad at myself for not going with my gut (more below). My votes are

Captain. Absolute lock. We shouldn't even have this one in there, because it's a slam dunk.

X-Men. Slightly more risky....but the last one did great, and this one has a tremendous amount of buzz.....but I'm worried this could also disappoint.

Finding Dory. Another lock. It could be awful and would still be a lock.

Pets. Nervous....but typically two kids movies do well over the summer.

Suicide Squad. This is a "my daughter has been talking about this movie for 2 years" vote. If it's even remotely good, people will flock to it.

So the one I didn't pick (but really wanted to) was Nice Guys. It could be the sleeper romantic comedy movie. Gosling brings out the women, and the previews (which I don't typically watch but did for this one, look great).

Also nervous about Alice (though that movie did well in a really odd way...it came out in the Spring, and had no competition, and just kept grabbing the #1 spot), and Independence Day....though I think the latter has lost some of us luster over the years.

Can't wait to see Civil War.....

[gurufrisbee]

I want to throw this out for you.

Tell me if this resume makes you think this movie should be a contender or not.

It's a sequel. It's first version made over $300 million domestic and is a top 40 grossing film ALL TIME.

The year the first version came out it was the #2 movie of the year - losing only to a Pixar giant sequel and beating out a Marvel sequel, a Harry Potter, and one of the sparkly vampire crap movies.

It's lead actor has six movies to their credit that have made over $200 million (including the first one of these). The lead actress has ten movies over $100 million, including six over $130 all since 2010.

I look at all that and feel like it should be a great contender. But I get the feeling almost no one will vote for it - and they are probably right.

[JasonEvans]

I want to throw this out for you.

Tell me if this resume makes you think this movie should be a contender or not.

It's a sequel. It's first version made over $300 million domestic and is a top 40 grossing film ALL TIME.

The year the first version came out it was the #2 movie of the year - losing only to a Pixar giant sequel and beating out a Marvel sequel, a Harry Potter, and one of the sparkly vampire crap movies.

It's lead actor has six movies to their credit that have made over $200 million (including the first one of these). The lead actress has ten movies over $100 million, including six over $130 all since 2010.

I look at all that and feel like it should be a great contender. But I get the feeling almost no one will vote for it - and they are probably right.

Well, 5 of the 41 people who voted have picked it.

[gurufrisbee]

Well, 5 of the 41 people who voted have picked it.

Which makes it 10th out of 15 - and the five below it have a combined total of three votes. It just seems odd to me that with such a resume it's doing so poorly here - but given the lack of buzz about it, that vote total here feels pretty right. Just an odd combination to me.

[BD80]

I want to throw this out for you.

Tell me if this resume makes you think this movie should be a contender or not.

It's a sequel. It's first version made over $300 million domestic and is a top 40 grossing film ALL TIME.

The year the first version came out it was the #2 movie of the year - losing only to a Pixar giant sequel and beating out a Marvel sequel, a Harry Potter, and one of the sparkly vampire crap movies.

It's lead actor has six movies to their credit that have made over $200 million (including the first one of these). The lead actress has ten movies over $100 million, including six over $130 all since 2010.

I look at all that and feel like it should be a great contender. But I get the feeling almost no one will vote for it - and they are probably right.

Johnny Depp is not a star on the rise. Anne Hathaway didn't drive the 10 movies over $100m. The original was a surprise, taking advantage of a Spring release, a slot that became more popular (Furious films).

The sequel will have to compete with Cap (3 weeks in), X-Men, TMNT in a week, and Dory will suck up the target audience three weeks in

[JasonEvans]

The original was a surprise, taking advantage of a Spring release, a slot that became more popular (Furious films).

Actually, the original was one of the first movies to really capitalize on the 3D craze. It came around just as Avatar was fading from theaters and folks were sorta mad for another 3D experience. This caused its boxoffice to soar. To this day, the original Alice has one of the highest average ticket price rankings of all time because folks either saw it in 3D or they did not see it at all. The success of this as a 3D phenomenon is a major reason that Hollywood went on a 3D craze, making everything in 3D that they could. Of course, the moment the craze happened, audiences got a little sick of 3d and now audiences only pay for 3D for films that truly promise a great visual experience.

Anyway, it is a safe bet that Alice #2 will not get a similar 3D boost. Combine that with Depp's somewhat fading star and the long time between sequels and you have a formula for some skepticism about its success at the boxoffice.

-Jason "personally, I think it makes something like $150-$180 mil... good, but not enough to make our top 5" Evans

[brevity]

Actually, the original was one of the first movies to really capitalize on the 3D craze. It came around just as Avatar was fading from theaters and folks were sorta mad for another 3D experience. This caused its boxoffice to soar. To this day, the original Alice has one of the highest average ticket price rankings of all time because folks either saw it in 3D or they did not see it at all. The success of this as a 3D phenomenon is a major reason that Hollywood went on a 3D craze, making everything in 3D that they could. Of course, the moment the craze happened, audiences got a little sick of 3d and now audiences only pay for 3D for films that truly promise a great visual experience.

Anyway, it is a safe bet that Alice #2 will not get a similar 3D boost. Combine that with Depp's somewhat fading star and the long time between sequels and you have a formula for some skepticism about its success at the boxoffice.

-Jason "personally, I think it makes something like $150-$180 mil... good, but not enough to make our top 5" Evans

You could be right, but that is a tall order.

Alice Through the Looking Glass opens Memorial Day weekend, but so does X-Men: Apocalypse. If we agree that X-Men will make more box office, then we are saying that two films released that particular weekend will make over $150 million. Historically, this has happened only twice before:

2011 (The Hangover II $254M, Kung Fu Panda $165M)
2005 (Madagascar $193M, The Longest Yard $158M)

Note the lack of crossover between the animated film and the adult comedy. Alice and X-Men are closer in genre and will be fighting for some of the same audience.

By another, purely anecdotal measure -- Disney Store merchandise -- Alice is doing well, based on a recent visit to a local store. Setting aside Frozen and the rest of the princess canon, I would rank their movie square footage dedication as follows:

1. Star Wars VII: The Force Awakens
2. Alice Through the Looking Glass
3. Captain America: Civil War
4. Zootopia
5. Finding Dory

[JasonEvans]

People... people... this was not easy. But, I want to tell you how I managed to pick all 5 winners. In fact, I'll even list them in the order of their boxoffice takes.

1) Cap: Civil War - I picked this because I have a brain. It may say Captain America in the title, but this really is Avengers 3 seeing as it contains Cap, Iron Man, and most of the rest of the Avengers cast. The early reviews are off the charts. It will make $500+ mil with ease. Confidence of pick - 100%

2) Finding Dory - Pixar's track record for summer releases is pretty good. This is an established product and the offspring of one of the great animated films of all time. No brainer to earn well over $300 mil. Anyone who did not vote for it will lose... Guaranteed. Confidence of pick - 100%

3) Suicide Squad - My friends, if you really think that a movie about the DC comics universe is not going to make $250 mil, you are smoking some powerful herb. Man of Steel and BvS were AWFUL films and they each made in the $300 mil neighborhood. The buzz from Hollywood is that SS is actually a pretty good movie and the trailers have been awesome. The injection of more humor will undoubtedly pay off (as it has for Iron Man and Deadpool) with wider audience appeal and I still like Will Smith's boxoffice cache. David Ayer is a far better director than Zach Snyder. Bank on this puppy to be north of $280 mil. Confidence of pick - 90%

4) X-Men Apocalypse - The X-Men track record is also very, very strong. DOFP made $233 mil and left a good impression on moviegoers. I think the huge success of Deadpool may help a bit too. I think $230+ mil is a very safe bet. Confidence of pick - 75%

5) Independence Day 2 - So, this was the one I really struggled to pick. If Will Smith had gotten on board, this would be a no brainer, but he didn't and I worry about a movie with Gale from Hunger Games as the main character. That said, we saw last summer that there is some real nostalgia for 90s sci-fi hits (Jurassic World). I also looked at Rotten Tomatoes "Want To See" rankings. It is connected to Facebook and I looked at how many people had said they "Want to See" some of the films in our poll. Here were some of the results:


Finding Dory - 118,000
Cap 2 - 101,000
X-Men Apoc - 81,400
Ghostbusters - 54,300
ID2 - 43,600
Secret Pets - 22,800
Alice Looking - 14,700
Suicide Squad - 11,100
Star Trek Beyond - 3,400
Jason Bourne - 1,700

Now, I really think there is a recency thing going on here, as the most popular flicks are the ones coming to theaters the soonest, but I still see a real difference in the ID2 numbers and some of the other contenders. That cemented my choice. I think ID2 will make over $225 mil. Confidence of pick - 50%

By the way, for my 5th spot, I also considered Star Trek 3 and Jason Bourne but I don't sense much excitement for either one. I think JJ leaving Star Trek will depress the audience a bit and I think Bourne has a problematic release date in August that gives it less time to have big weekends.

Though I said I could make a case for many other movies, I don't really think there were that many other legit contenders. Sure, Pets and Alice will do nice boxoffice (likely more than $150 mil each), but I just didn't feel like betting on a longshot. I'll be honest, the longshot that gives me the most pause is Ghostbusters... if it is really funny, there could be a major nostalgia effect combined with everyone wanting to be in on the jokes that causes it to take off. But, I just think the odds of that are less than the odds of ID2 being a winner. But, if I am wrong in my top 5, I think it will be because Ghostbusters took off.

-Jason "despite my bravado, if I hit 4 out of 5 this summer, it will be a miracle ;) " Evans

[BD80]

People... people... this was not easy. But, I want to tell you how I managed to pick all 5 winners. ...

-Jason "despite my bravado, if I hit 4 out of 5 this summer, it will be a miracle ;) " Evans

Easy, you just copied me ...

which sealed your fate.

I apologize now to all others who pick the same 5.

[luburch]

Easy, you just copied me ...

which sealed your fate.

I apologize now to all others who pick the same 5.

Looks like I'm in trouble too then. Misery loves company..

[gurufrisbee]

i have three of those same five. Somehow that makes me feel really scared about all five of my picks.

[Doria]

i have three of those same five. Somehow that makes me feel really scared about all five of my picks.

I have all five of those, though I'm totally uncertain about the fifth.

Also, I don't technically have them because I screwed up the voting, but the first four I am very comfortable with; Independence Day I also would have taken, but that was mostly because I am not more sure of anything else. Also, I was lukewarm on the original, though it clearly did well, so that may well color my feelings for it.

I'd like to pick ST: B, but Into Darkness was just bad, and I am not sure if the damage it did. Bourne... I'd love it to be good and do well, but I can't get excited for it, and I think a lot of people will share my general apathy, and the date does it no favors, IMO.

[luburch]

I went with Independence Day as my 5th choice, but I'm not remotely confident in it. Came down to ID, Star Trek, and Pets.

[brevity]

1) Cap: Civil War - I picked this because I have a brain. It may say Captain America in the title, but this really is Avengers 3 seeing as it contains Cap, Iron Man, and most of the rest of the Avengers cast. The early reviews are off the charts. It will make $500+ mil with ease. Confidence of pick - 100%

Another tall order. Only one film in history that was released in May (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/month/?mo=05&sort=gross&order=DESC&p=.htm) has made $500M: the first Marvel Avengers movie. Put another way, The Dark Knight and Jurassic World are the only other summer movies (unadjusted for inflation) to ever hit $500M. Put a third way, you're asking Civil War to make almost twice as much as Winter Soldier ($259M).

It will make the Top 5, clear $300M with ease, and probably pass $400M. But $500M?

[JasonEvans]

Another tall order. Only one film in history that was released in May (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/month/?mo=05&sort=gross&order=DESC&p=.htm) has made $500M: the first Marvel Avengers movie. Put another way, The Dark Knight and Jurassic World are the only other summer movies (unadjusted for inflation) to ever hit $500M. Put a third way, you're asking Civil War to make almost twice as much as Winter Soldier ($259M).

It will make the Top 5, clear $300M with ease, and probably pass $400M. But $500M?

Spoken like someone who has not seen it ;)

People said the same thing last year when I opined that The Force Awakens could be the first $800 mil movie in history. I was wrong... it was the first $900 mil movie ever.

[brevity]

Bump. It's the last full day to vote.


Hey, theschwartz, you only voted for 1 movie (Independence Day 2). FIVE was your target number.

theschwartz: maybe post your missing 4 picks here?

Also, wander picked "Other" but has not yet specified what that other film is.

[Wander]

Also, wander picked "Other" but has not yet specified what that other film is.

Awwwwww, I want to get away with just taking "the field."

I'll think about it and come up with an answer later today.

[JasonEvans]

theschwartz: maybe post your missing 4 picks here?

Also, wander picked "Other" but has not yet specified what that other film is.

I am prepared to make an executive decision.

If Indy Day 2 earn more than any other 5 movies combined, it shall be declared all 5 of the top earning movies of summer and theschwartz shall be the sole winner of the 5-for-5 contest.

So let it be written, so let it be done! (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4emcNAf5lY)

Of note-- this is not impossible. The past Winter, Force Awakens earned $936 million at the domestic boxoffice. The next 5 films in our contest were: Mockingjay 2 ($281.7 mil), Spectre $200 mil), Revenant ($183.4 mil), Daddy's Home ($150.3 mil), and KFPanda 3 ($141.7 mil). so, those 5 combined to make $957.1 million... just $20 mil more than Force Awakens. See, it is not impossible!

As for Wander, I'm somewhat tempted to let him have the 'field' of all films not named in the poll... but I would have had to make that clear to everyone else in advance. Others might have wanted to do that as well.

-Jason "Might be an interesting choice in the future -- 'I'll take something no one suspects to be a huge hit.' The total dark horse has made our top 5 several times in past years" Evans

[Doria]

Bump. It's the last full day to vote.



theschwartz: maybe post your missing 4 picks here?

Also, wander picked "Other" but has not yet specified what that other film is.

Ah, as I alluded to above, I stupidly clicked submit after picking Civil War out of habit, so I only have 1 official pick, too. I did note above, though, that my top 5 were the ones Jason picked, albeit in a slightly different order (if that matters). I hope I did not screw up you guys' numbers or whatever, with my single vote straggling behind in the poll.

[BD80]

Ah, as I alluded to above, I stupidly clicked submit after picking Civil War out of habit, so I only have 1 official pick, too. I did note above, though, that my top 5 were the ones Jason picked, albeit in a slightly different order (if that matters). I hope I did not screw up you guys' numbers or whatever, with my single vote straggling behind in the poll.

I don't think you appreciate that our poll is like 247's Crystal Ball. It is not a predictor of what will happen, it is a direct cause of what will happen. The shift of predictions for a recruit to a school causes the recruit to choose that school.

Our poll is pretty much the same, but in reverse. Once we come to a consensus, you are assured that at least movie #s 4 and 5 will tank.

[Doria]

I don't think you appreciate that our poll is like 247's Crystal Ball. It is not a predictor of what will happen, it is a direct cause of what will happen. The shift of predictions for a recruit to a school causes the recruit to choose that school.

Our poll is pretty much the same, but in reverse. Once we come to a consensus, you are assured that at least movie #s 4 and 5 will tank.

Haha, that puts it into perspective!

[CameronBornAndBred]

But, if I am wrong in my top 5, I think it will be because Ghostbusters took off.

If the reaction to the trailer is any indication, you don't have to worry.


Released March 3, the trailer, viewed 29.2 million times and counting, is the most disliked movie trailer in YouTube history, according to the social platform's "Most Disliked Videos" list that was last updated April 16. (Justin Bieber comes in at No. 1 with 5.99 million dislikes for "Baby.")

http://www.msn.com/en-us/movies/news/ghostbusters-is-the-most-disliked-movie-trailer-in-youtube-history/ar-BBst9hF?li=BBnbfcL

[Wander]

As for Wander, I'm somewhat tempted to let him have the 'field' of all films not named in the poll... but I would have had to make that clear to everyone else in advance. Others might have wanted to do that as well.

-Jason "Might be an interesting choice in the future -- 'I'll take something no one suspects to be a huge hit.' The total dark horse has made our top 5 several times in past years" Evans

OK, after thinking a lot about it, I'm going to take Sausage Party as my "field" choice.

[JasonEvans]

OK, after thinking a lot about it, I'm going to take Sausage Party as my "field" choice.

Interesting choice. There is not much of a track record for R-Rated animated films. I mean, unless you count Ted as an animated film, there has never been an R-rated animated film to make even $100 million. I'm fairly sure the most successful R-rated animated film was South Park: Bigger, Longer, and Uncut which made $52 million back in 1999.

Good luck!

-Jason "so, serious question -- how many days will it take for Cap 3 to earn enough to make our top 5? I'll say it will be at $225 mil, enough to be in the Top 5, by its 5th day of release" Evans

[Wander]

Interesting choice. There is not much of a track record for R-Rated animated films. I mean, unless you count Ted as an animated film, there has never been an R-rated animated film to make even $100 million.

Yeah, I was thinking specifically of Ted and Deadpool as movies that would maybe have a very similar audience to Sausage Party. Also, it comes out (August 12) long after the most popular picks in our contest other than Suicide Squad, so less competition.

[Doria]

-Jason "so, serious question -- how many days will it take for Cap 3 to earn enough to make our top 5? I'll say it will be at $225 mil, enough to be in the Top 5, by its 5th day of release" Evans

I think it's released Friday (? maybe Thursday?), so I'd bet it will clear that figure by the end of the weekend. But if you're asking how much will be the cutoff for the top 5, I have no idea. I don't pay enough attention to historical BO trends to have any real ability to guesstimate that figure.

[YmoBeThere]

South Park: Bigger, Longer, and Uncut which made $52 million back in 1999.

I'm guessing, in honor of South Park, the sequel to Sausage Party will be Sausage Party: Bigger, Longer, and Uncut

[BD80]

I'm guessing, in honor of South Park, the sequel to Sausage Party will be Sausage Party: Bigger, Longer, and Uncut

Dude, that's just not kosher

[JasonEvans]

Well, it is about to begin. If a film will need about $215 mil to make our top 5, I expect it will take Cap 3 all of 3 days to get there. We are about to see the biggest opening weekend ever for any film other than one with the words "Star," "Wars," "Force," or "Awakens" in the title.

I am predicting a $218 mil opening weekend.

-Jason "May won't really matter in our poll... June and July will be when we find our winners" Evans

[YmoBeThere]

Two people didn't vote for Captain America...so, it will take a very strong finish for them to be relevant for the title.

[JasonEvans]

So, quick guessing game for everyone... what is your guess on the final boxoffice tally for Cap: Civil War?

For comparison:

Jurassic World (last year's summer champ) - $652 mil
The Avengers (Marvel's biggest movie) - $623 mil
Avengers: Ultron (Marvel's best in 2015) - $459 mil
Deadpool (Biggest movie of 2016 thus far) - $361 mil
Batman vs Superman (2nd biggest of 2016) - $325 mil
Cap 2: Winter Soldier (Biggest Cap movie) - $259 mil


-Jason "My guess is the Cap 3 makes $550 mil, more than Ultron, but less than Avengers" Evans

[Doria]

So, quick guessing game for everyone... what is your guess on the final boxoffice tally for Cap: Civil War?

For comparison:

Jurassic World (last year's summer champ) - $652 mil
The Avengers (Marvel's biggest movie) - $623 mil
Avengers: Ultron (Marvel's best in 2015) - $459 mil
Deadpool (Biggest movie of 2016 thus far) - $361 mil
Batman vs Superman (2nd biggest of 2016) - $325 mil
Cap 2: Winter Soldier (Biggest Cap movie) - $259 mil


-Jason "My guess is the Cap 3 makes $550 mil, more than Ultron, but less than Avengers" Evans

That is my guess as well, though if you want a differential, I'll say that it makes more than $550m. That's a pretty big gap, though, so I think if one believes it will do very well, it's pretty safe (though not necessarily accurate) to say it will fit in that gap.

Interestingly, I would have said it beats Avengers, but somehow, I hesitate to say Jurassic World. Since they're so close, I couldn't split the... oh, what the heck... I'll make it interesting by saying $655m. Note that I still don't know when it opens and haven't seen any BO projections, so I'll probably be horribly embarrassed.

[BD80]

That is my guess as well, though if you want a differential, I'll say that it makes more than $550m. That's a pretty big gap, though, so I think if one believes it will do very well, it's pretty safe (though not necessarily accurate) to say it will fit in that gap.

Interestingly, I would have said it beats Avengers, but somehow, I hesitate to say Jurassic World. Since they're so close, I couldn't split the... oh, what the heck... I'll make it interesting by saying $655m. Note that I still don't know when it opens and haven't seen any BO projections, so I'll probably be horribly embarrassed.

I'll bid $656m, Bob. I mean Drew.

[JasonEvans]

I'll bid $656m, Bob. I mean Drew.

"without going over" is only a thing on Price is Right.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/1c/c5/75/1cc5753daeb6e654ce5bcce73c143b4b.jpg

[YmoBeThere]

583 million

[mkirsh]

so, quick guessing game for everyone... What is your guess on the final boxoffice tally for cap: Civil war?

For comparison:

jurassic world (last year's summer champ) - $652 mil
the avengers (marvel's biggest movie) - $623 mil
avengers: Ultron (marvel's best in 2015) - $459 mil
deadpool (biggest movie of 2016 thus far) - $361 mil
batman vs superman (2nd biggest of 2016) - $325 mil
cap 2: Winter soldier (biggest cap movie) - $259 mil


-jason "my guess is the cap 3 makes $550 mil, more than ultron, but less than avengers" evans

$670 m

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

One dollar.

Wait, what are we doing?

[bjornolf]

one dollar.

Wait, what are we doing?

$2. Ha!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

$2. Ha!

:mad::mad::mad:

[Tommac]

Just got back a little while ago from seeing Cap America Apocalypse. Was a great movie and the theater was about half full for a Friday noon showing in sleepy Burlington. I really wasn't expecting that many.

[Tommac]

Just got back a little while ago from seeing Cap America Apocalypse. Was a great movie and the theater was about half full for a Friday noon showing in sleepy Burlington. I really wasn't expecting that many.

Sorry, I meant Captain America Civil War.

[Udaman]

Potential Darkhorse????

At Civil War they showed a preview of the new Chris Rock / Kevin Hart movie: Central Intelligence. The audience laughed out loud....many, many times. People like Kevin Hart, and The Rock....and they like to laugh during the summer.

It will be hard for many movies to get past Captain, Dory, X-Men, Independence Day, etc.....but this one might surprise.

[JasonEvans]

Potential Darkhorse????

At Civil War they showed a preview of the new Chris Rock / Kevin Hart movie: Central Intelligence. The audience laughed out loud...many, many times. People like Kevin Hart, and The Rock...and they like to laugh during the summer.

It will be hard for many movies to get past Captain, Dory, X-Men, Independence Day, etc....but this one might surprise.

Trailer has been out there for a few weeks. I agree, it looks very funny.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxEw3elSJ8M

-Jason "it comes out the same weekend as Finding Dory... gonna be tough to get a lot of buzz traction against that film" Evans

[bjornolf]

Potential Darkhorse????

At Civil War they showed a preview of the new Chris Rock / Kevin Hart movie: Central Intelligence. The audience laughed out loud...many, many times. People like Kevin Hart, and The Rock...and they like to laugh during the summer.

It will be hard for many movies to get past Captain, Dory, X-Men, Independence Day, etc....but this one might surprise.

I love the trailer, but I didn't see Chris Rock in there. Did I miss him?

[BD80]

I love the trailer, but I didn't see Chris Rock in there. Did I miss him?

THE chris ROCK

[Olympic Fan]

I love the trailer, but I didn't see Chris Rock in there. Did I miss him?

Think it's easy to confuse Chris Rock with Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson ... BTW: I also loved the trailer

[JasonEvans]

Cap's opening weekend number appears to be $181.8, 5th biggest opening of all time. I had thought it would get to $200 mil because of the great reviews. Regardless, this is a huge number and, combined with good word of mouth from an A Cinemascore, assures this film will make well over $400 million. We just need to see how long the legs are to know how big it ends up being.

-Jason "final numbers on Monday" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Sigh... that was fun while it lasted (but it sure did not last very long).

-Jason

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Sigh... that was fun while it lasted (but it sure did not last very long).

-Jason

Did I miss something?

[JasonEvans]

Did I miss something?

No, I saw something.

[bjornolf]

No, I saw something.

Huh? Please enlighten those of us who lack your intelligence and insight.

[luburch]

No, I saw something.

Independence Day is that bad? Or Suicide Squad?

[devildeac]

Trailer has been out there for a few weeks. I agree, it looks very funny.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxEw3elSJ8M

-Jason "it comes out the same weekend as Finding Dory... gonna be tough to get a lot of buzz traction against that film" Evans


I love the trailer, but I didn't see Chris Rock in there. Did I miss him?


THE chris ROCK

You buncha Jabronis need to get this:

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.projectrockofficial.rockclock&hl=en

...to wake your candyasses up in the morning...


If you can smell what the devildeac is cooking...


:o

[JasonEvans]

Independence Day is that bad? Or Suicide Squad?

The film I saw this afternoon has a review embargo until 9pm tonight. Though what I do here is not technically a review, I will honor their request.

I should say that what I saw was not terrible, not even bad, but it wasn't exactly all that good either.

-Jason "pales by comparison is a phrase you will likely hear me use" Evans

[wilson]

The film I saw this afternoon has a review embargo until 9pm tonight. Though what I do here is not technically a review, I will honor their request.

I should say that what I saw was not terrible, not even bad, but it wasn't exactly all that good either.

-Jason "pales by comparison is a phrase you will likely hear me use" EvansI don't care about my contest performance, but I desperately hope this isn't Finding Dory (though I fear that it is).

[Highlander]

The film I saw this afternoon has a review embargo until 9pm tonight. Though what I do here is not technically a review, I will honor their request.

I should say that what I saw was not terrible, not even bad, but it wasn't exactly all that good either.

-Jason "pales by comparison is a phrase you will likely hear me use" Evans

Hmm, I love a good mystery...

Given his disappointment, it implies the review is a film he voted for. Which could be "Finding Dory," "ID2," "Suicide Squad," or "XMen." We can eliminate Civil War since that one is already out. "Pales in comparison" implies a sequel, which would knock out Suicide Squad. Plus the fact that he just reviewed it and SS doesn't open for several months. "Pales in comparison" also implies that the previous film(s) were rather good, which pretty much eliminates "Independence Day."

So that leaves "Finding Dory" or "XMen." I remember well what high praise Mr. Evans had for "First Class," and I believe he liked "Days of Future Past" as well. And he does love him some Pixar. But I'll go with XMen simply because it comes out in roughly 2 weeks while Dory is over a month away. And it's much more likely that the 6th (9th if you count Wolverine and Deadpool) XMen movie is the one to fall short than the second Nemo.

So XMen: Apocalypse. Final Answer. Tune in tonight at 9pm to see if I'm right.

Should we start another poll, closing at 8:59pm ET tonight? If so, I have no doubt that Udamann will be very confident in his answer, whatever it may be :)

[Olympic Fan]

The film I saw this afternoon has a review embargo until 9pm tonight. Though what I do here is not technically a review, I will honor their request.

I should say that what I saw was not terrible, not even bad, but it wasn't exactly all that good either.

-Jason "pales by comparison is a phrase you will likely hear me use" Evans

Hmm, fun guessing game ... what is the movie you saw that you can't write about?

I just checked Rotten Tomatoes for upcoming releases that have not yet been reviewed (hence the embargo):

Money Monster (George Clooney, Julia Roberts)

The Nice Guys (Russell Crowe, Ryan Gosling)

The Darkness (Kevin Bacon)

maybe X-Men or Alice in Wonderland (both come out late this month and haven't been reviewed)

One of these?

[Wander]

Hmm, fun guessing game ... what is the movie you saw that you can't write about?

I just checked Rotten Tomatoes for upcoming releases that have not yet been reviewed (hence the embargo):

Money Monster (George Clooney, Julia Roberts)

The Nice Guys (Russell Crowe, Ryan Gosling)

The Darkness (Kevin Bacon)

maybe X-Men or Alice in Wonderland (both come out late this month and haven't been reviewed)

One of these?

Good sleuthing - JE's tone implies it's something he voted for, so I'm guessing X-Men.

[El_Diablo]

Searching the Google for media embargoes on advanced screenings seems to confirm Highlander's hypothesis.

[wilson]

Hmm, I love a good mystery...

Given his disappointment, it implies the review is a film he voted for. Which could be "Finding Dory," "ID2," "Suicide Squad," or "XMen." We can eliminate Civil War since that one is already out. "Pales in comparison" implies a sequel, which would knock out Suicide Squad. Plus the fact that he just reviewed it and SS doesn't open for several months. "Pales in comparison" also implies that the previous film(s) were rather good, which pretty much eliminates "Independence Day."

So that leaves "Finding Dory" or "XMen." I remember well what high praise Mr. Evans had for "First Class," and I believe he liked "Days of Future Past" as well. And he does love him some Pixar. But I'll go with XMen simply because it comes out in roughly 2 weeks while Dory is over a month away. And it's much more likely that the 6th (9th if you count Wolverine and Deadpool) XMen movie is the one to fall short than the second Nemo.

So XMen: Apocalypse. Final Answer. Tune in tonight at 9pm to see if I'm right.

Should we start another poll, closing at 8:59pm ET tonight? If so, I have no doubt that Udamann will be very confident in his answer, whatever it may be :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9TRMQwMNnY

[BD80]

Come on Jason. there's still a chance; Bourne, STrek or Pets has to beat it. The Bourne trailer looks bourning (sorry), STrek doesn't have much momentum, and Pets could get washed away by Dory!

And the Browns could win the Super Bowl!

[Doria]

I agree that it's likely to be X-Men.

Just as an aside, why is it so difficult for studios to do Marvel supervillains justice? I mean, off the top of my head without reference to my movie shelf, Malekith managed to waste a tremendous actor, Red Skull was hampered by awful VFX but really didn't get any help from Weaving, Ronan's look and interpretation still make me want to cry (he is really not a traditional villain, though he's definitely an antagonist), Doom is 0-2 now, and Zemo...

The only ones I can think of that weren't awful were basically X-Men villains (Magneto--let's agree that Last Stand did no one any favors, Mystique, 1-2 Sabretooths, arguably 1-2 Strykers), Netflix characterizations with Kingpin and arguably Elektra, and ... I guess Loki.

This is so depressing to me. It makes me dread Thanos, though I always saw him as a concept better realized by DC's Darkseid, anyway. Apocalypse is one of my favorite Marvel villains, even with the basically impossible-to-translate-to-cinemas visual design. Oh, well.

[JasonEvans]

Ya'll guessed right. It is X-Men that disappointed me. Variety broke the embargo so I just wrote up my review (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?37962-X-Men-Apocalypse-early-review&p=886174#post886174)... sigh, it didn't suck, but it wasn't good either.

-Jason "I give it slim odds of making $200 million... probably stalls out in the 180-190 mil kind of range" Evans

[wilson]

Ya'll guessed right. It is X-Men that disappointed me. Variety broke the embargo so I just wrote up my review (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?37962-X-Men-Apocalypse-early-review&p=886174#post886174)... sigh, it didn't suck, but it wasn't good either.

-Jason "I give it slim odds of making $200 million... probably stalls out in the 180-190 mil kind of range" EvansDoom. Crappy movies never make money. 😉

[Reisen]

I was SOOOOOOOOO close to not picking X Men, especially after the last Spiderman fiasco. Should have gone with my gut.

[JasonEvans]

I was SOOOOOOOOO close to not picking X Men, especially after the last Spiderman fiasco. Should have gone with my gut.

I could still be wrong with my projection that it comes up just a little short of $200 mil. It could still make our top 5. Hollywood Stock Exchange is still projecting it to make $211 mill in its first 3 weeks of release (which would probably put it on track to earn close to $250 mil). We will see if the early reviews are toxic or if they merely dampen a little bit a film that most expected to make well over $250 mil.

-Jason "I just think this flick will struggle outside of the comic book fanboy community... and that community alone can't get you to $200+ mil" Evans

[BD80]

I could still be wrong with my projection that it comes up just a little short of $200 mil. It could still make our top 5. Hollywood Stock Exchange is still projecting it to make $211 mill in its first 3 weeks of release (which would probably put it on track to earn close to $250 mil). We will see if the early reviews are toxic or if they merely dampen a little bit a film that most expected to make well over $250 mil.

-Jason "I just think this flick will struggle outside of the comic book fanboy community... and that community alone can't get you to $200+ mil" Evans

It still has JLaw in body paint and Olivia Munn in Spandex. It's got a shot.

[brevity]

Boldly waiting until after this weekend was over, Vulture (http://www.vulture.com/2016/05/predicting-the-5-highest-grossing-summer-movies.html) put up their Top 5 Summer Box Office prediction:

1. Captain America: Civil War $420 million
2. Finding Dory $330 million
3. Suicide Squad $300 million
4. The BFG $255 million
5. Ghostbusters $225 million

Click the above link to read why they left off X-Men and Independence Day. (And there's a separate article on the lack of X-Men enthusiasm here (http://www.vulture.com/2016/04/why-x-men-apocalypse-has-so-little-buzz.html).)

[JasonEvans]

Boldly waiting until after this weekend was over, Vulture (http://www.vulture.com/2016/05/predicting-the-5-highest-grossing-summer-movies.html) put up their Top 5 Summer Box Office prediction:

1. Captain America: Civil War $420 million
2. Finding Dory $330 million
3. Suicide Squad $300 million
4. The BFG $255 million
5. Ghostbusters $225 million

Click the above link to read why they left off X-Men and Independence Day. (And there's a separate article on the lack of X-Men enthusiasm here (http://www.vulture.com/2016/04/why-x-men-apocalypse-has-so-little-buzz.html).)

I will gladly wager anyone that the BFG won't make $250+ million... heck, it won't make $200 mil. It is not that I think the movie will be bad or bomb at the boxoffice, it is that I think $150 mil would be a significant success for a film like this without any stars and without a significant (the book is not that well known) built-in audience. Spielberg's name alone cannot power this flick to big money and its release date (July 1) is sandwiched in between Finding Dory (June 17) and Secret Life of Pets (July 8), making it a crowded marketplace for family fare.

-Jason "I like that Vulture went out on a limb though -- they just picked the wrong limb" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I will gladly wager anyone that the BFG won't make $250+ million... heck, it won't make $200 mil. It is not that I think the movie will be bad or bomb at the boxoffice, it is that I think $150 mil would be a significant success for a film like this without any stars and without a significant (the book is not that well known) built-in audience. Spielberg's name alone cannot power this flick to big money and its release date (July 1) is sandwiched in between Finding Dory (June 17) and Secret Life of Pets (July 8), making it a crowded marketplace for family fare.

-Jason "I like that Vulture went out on a limb though -- they just picked the wrong limb" Evans

Well, I am glad no one took me up on that wager offer. The world premiere screening of The BFG was this weekend at Cannes and the early buzz is that at least some folks are blown away. There are some favorable comparisons to ET. I'm still somewhat skeptical, but it looks like this is a flick that may really make waves with the family audience.


The Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/films/2016/05/14/the-bfg-review-steven-spielberg-and-mark-rylance-create-a-landsc/) - Spielberg’s adaptation of Dahl’s novel (is) about as good as cinema can do these days.

Pete Hammond, Deadline (http://deadline.com/2016/05/steven-spielberg-back-making-fantasy-movie-magic-in-the-bfg-cannes-1201756314/) - This master director, working again in the fantasy genre, pulls off a movie worth the wait. Saturday night at the Grand Lumiere Theatre in the Palais he soaked up the applause (at least a 2 minute Pete Hammond badgestanding ovation just for his entrance, and another 4 1/2 minutes after the end credits rolled) for his latest, The BFG.

Peter Debruge, Variety (http://variety.com/2016/film/reviews/the-bfg-review-steven-spielberg-1201774476/) - You believe. No matter how fantastical the tale (and it gets pretty out-there at points), this splendid Steven Spielberg-directed adaptation makes it possible for audiences of all ages to wrap their heads around one of the unlikeliest friendships in cinema history, resulting in the sort of instant family classic “human beans” once relied upon Disney to deliver.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/films/2016/05/14/the-bfg-large_trans++VrUpGShtiMSOrgRE1UXhxwvm66VPBZpv7lQVy _JwGVI.jpg

-Jason "if the reviews are through the roof... could this be the film that every family wants to see over the July 4th holiday?" Evans

[YmoBeThere]

Luke Perry finally got another role after 90210!

[Olympic Fan]

Wow, starting its second weekend, on Friday, Captain America earned $19.4 million -- more than the next 11 movies COMBINED:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

Luckily, no other films in our contest were included on that list.

At this rate, Captain America could pass Batman vs. Superman by the end of this weekend ...

[JasonEvans]

At this rate, Captain America could pass Batman vs. Superman by the end of this weekend ...

Nope, not quite. Cap will be around $300 mil, probably just a shade under, by the end of this weekend. BvS is at $327 mil so far. But, Cap should pass it with ease in the next few days. Cap is currently looking like about a $475 mil flick. It is going to make the top 5 ;)

-Jason "are folks seeing it twice? That will be the difference in $450 mil and $550 mil" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

"if the (BFG) reviews are through the roof... could this be the film that every family wants to see over the July 4th holiday?"
As one of two who voted for it, I hope so. My top 5 will still be short though, even if I pick up BFG. I left off Suicide Squad in favor of aliens coming back for revenge and partying pets, and while I think both will do well, I'm not so sure they'll be top 5. I'm feeling pretty sure that the most awful looking Joker ever will be, though.

[JasonEvans]

As one of two who voted for it, I hope so. My top 5 will still be short though, even if I pick up BFG. I left off Suicide Squad in favor of aliens coming back for revenge and partying pets, and while I think both will do well, I'm not so sure they'll be top 5. I'm feeling pretty sure that the most awful looking Joker ever will be, though.

Speaking of Suicide Squad, Warner is already exploring a Harley Quinn spinoff with Margot Robbie. That tells that her character must really be connecting with audiences in the test screenings.

-Jason "I wonder if Jared Leto's Joker would play second fiddle to Harley Quinn in a solo Quinn movie... that just feels wrong" Evans

https://nerdlowdown.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/bruce-timm-harley-quinn.jpg

[brevity]

Speaking of Suicide Squad, Warner is already exploring a Harley Quinn spinoff with Margot Robbie. That tells that her character must really be connecting with audiences in the test screenings.

-Jason "I wonder if Jared Leto's Joker would play second fiddle to Harley Quinn in a solo Quinn movie... that just feels wrong" Evans

Eh, give him a cameo. The rumored Harley Quinn movie with a mostly female cast sounds promising in a Marvel-looks-deficient kind of way.

Nothing against Margot Robbie, but what feels wrong is to stick her in a makeup chair for hours so she can look like Gillian Jacobs. Why not just hire Gillian Jacobs?

6379

(source (http://9gag.com/gag/aj03MWq/i-can-t-be-the-only-one-who-thinks-margot-robbie-as-harley-quinn-looks-like-gillian-jacobs-britta-or-vice-versa))

[Doria]

Eh, give him a cameo. The rumored Harley Quinn movie with a mostly female cast sounds promising in a Marvel-looks-deficient kind of way.

Nothing against Margot Robbie, but what feels wrong is to stick her in a makeup chair for hours so she can look like Gillian Jacobs. Why not just hire Gillian Jacobs?

I would love to see a movie like this if it's well done; I'm thinking Birds of Prey meets Gotham Sirens for the female side of it. But I will believe it when I see it.

However, with Geoff Johns assuming co-control, with WB's Jeff Berg, of DC Films, I hope this both course corrects the film division and also lends a bit more clarity on the issue of film vs TV with respect to character use. So I'm optimistic, overall. Ironically, Agents of SHIELD just announced a move to a 10 PM death slot (for this kind of show), which lends credence to rumors of a non-amicable split between the film and TV sides, ultimately handled by Disney and Marvel respectively; of course AoS's ratings aren't doing it any real favors.

[YmoBeThere]

Angry Birds had the best Friday of this week's new films.

[Olympic Fan]

Angry Birds had the best Friday of this week's new films.

Angry Birds is looking at a $40 million weekend ... not bad.

The big news is that Nice Guys opened so poorly -- a heavily promoted film, with two big stars and a 90 % critics score on Rotten Tomatoes came is on track for a $10 million opening ... and his getting a B- cinemascore.

Meanwhile, the only new opening movie that's in our contest -- Neighbors 2 -- is opening with a $22 million opening. It's clearly not going to make our top five ... of course, nobody picked it, so ... good job, people!

Meanwhile, Captain America is headed for a $33 million weekend ... and will top $1 billion worldwide box office today.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Angry Birds is looking at a $40 million weekend ... not bad.

That's a good sign for the kids' fare this summer, especially since it's not a good movie.

[JasonEvans]

The new Star Trek Beyond trailer looks pretty good, though there is almost nothing explaining what the plot may be. It is all character and mood. I wonder if that means the story is not all that great.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzWIGFiGrlA

The script was co-authored by Simon Pegg, who has a great sense of humor and writes wonderful characters. I think his screenplays sorta peter out at the end, but the path to get to the end is generally a lot of fun.

-Jason "I think the late July release date may hurt in terms of boxoffice -- Independence Day is just a few weeks before and will slacken the demand for space battles and sci-fi" Evans

[BD80]

The new Star Trek Beyond trailer looks pretty good, though there is almost nothing explaining what the plot may be. It is all character and mood. I wonder if that means the story is not all that great.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzWIGFiGrlA

The script was co-authored by Simon Pegg, who has a great sense of humor and writes wonderful characters. I think his screenplays sorta peter out at the end, but the path to get to the end is generally a lot of fun.

-Jason "I think the late July release date may hurt in terms of boxoffice -- Independence Day is just a few weeks before and will slacken the demand for space battles and sci-fi" Evans

It is Fast and Furious Star Trek.

Plot? Phhhh

We've got motorcycles!

Actually does look pretty good.

[Olympic Fan]

It is Fast and Furious Star Trek.Plot? Phhhh

We've got motorcycles!

Actually does look pretty good.

Considering the director, is this a surprise?

[CameronBornAndBred]

It looks like the Enterprise gets ripped to shreds, yet again. A novel plot device would be for Starfleet's flagship to actually stay intact for the duration of a movie.

[JasonEvans]

New trailer -- nearly 5 minutes long! -- to Independence Day 2. Unlike the Star Trek one, this one clearly has a lot of plot in it and the plot seems pretty good.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCe_JshWOZ0

Frankly, I'm surprised they are putting out this much story and footage at one time. It is an unusual move and is clearly designed to generate buzz for the film. It sorta tells me that the studio feels confident about this flick, at least it feels confident the trailer delivers on what audiences want/expect to see. So, if nothing else, it is clear that ID 2 seems to have its marketing message pretty firmly in place (do not underrate how important that is).

-Jason "Anyway, it all makes me glad I picked this for my top 5, though I think my hopes of going 5-for-5 have a big X mark standing in their way" Evans

[JasonEvans]

So, WB held a test screening of Suicide Squad over the weekend. I know someone who knows someone who knows someone who says the audience loved it. There is no question it is testing far better than Man of Steel or BvS. Lots of praise for Harley Quinn and for Jared Leto's Joker. Some folks expressed surprise at how much Batman was in it considering they have not really shown him at all in the trailers. He's in at least 3 scenes, largely catching all the bad guys who make up the Suicide Squad. It may be that the stench from BvS is so bad, Warner wants to keep him out of the marketing for this film.

In any event, the buzz is that Suicide Squad is going to generate positive word of mouth and should be a decent hit for the troubled DC Cinematic Universe.

-Jason "folks who did not vote for that flick at in trouble, me thinks" Evans

[JasonEvans]

So, the HSX betting market thinks X-Men will open with $92+ mil this coming weekend. There has never been a film that grossed more than $86 mil in its opening weekend that failed to go on to make $200 mil. In fact, the only films to open for more than $75 mil that did not make it to $200 mil were:

Fifty Shades of Grey - $85.1 mil opening, $166.1 mil gross
X-Men Origins: Wolverine - $85.0 mil opening, $179.8 mil gross

Despite my disappointment in the film, the reviews are not awful. It is at 53% on Rotten Tomatoes, which is nowhere near what a bomb would be (BvS did 27%, X-Men Origins: Wolverine did 38%). Maybe it isn't going to peak in the $180 or $190 kind of range as I suspected when I first saw it. Maybe... just maybe... I still have a shot at going 5-for-5.

-Jason "hope springs eternal!" Evans

[BD80]

... Maybe... just maybe... I still have a shot at going 5-for-5.

-Jason "hope springs eternal!" Evans

There are several of us rooting for you ...

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

New trailer -- nearly 5 minutes long! -- to Independence Day 2. Unlike the Star Trek one, this one clearly has a lot of plot in it and the plot seems pretty good.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCe_JshWOZ0

Frankly, I'm surprised they are putting out this much story and footage at one time. It is an unusual move and is clearly designed to generate buzz for the film. It sorta tells me that the studio feels confident about this flick, at least it feels confident the trailer delivers on what audiences want/expect to see. So, if nothing else, it is clear that ID 2 seems to have its marketing message pretty firmly in place (do not underrate how important that is).

-Jason "Anyway, it all makes me glad I picked this for my top 5, though I think my hopes of going 5-for-5 have a big X mark standing in their way" Evans

A disaster/invasion movie like this has to have ghe right epic scope and feel, and this one seems to. Looks like a winner and makes me regret my choices.

[JasonEvans]

As I predicted about a month ago when I saw it, X-Men Apocalypse is not going to meet expectations at the boxoffice. Initial estimates early in the spring were that it would open with a $100 mil weekend. Then the bad reviews started to hit and folks started talking about only an $80 mil opening weekend. Well, the early numbers are in, and it won't get to $70 mil.

It looks like X will do $65 mil over the FSS weekend. When you add in Monday Memorial Day, it should come in at about $76-78 mil. It will need to do better than a 3-to-1 multiplier to hit $200 million.

That said, the prognosis is not a disaster. It got a pretty solid A- Cinemascore, which means the comic book fans who saw it liked it. Fox is saying they think this film may be like X-Men: The Last Stand, which was savaged by critics but made bank at the boxoffice ($234 mil in 2006 -- on an opening weekend of $102 million).

-Jason "meanwhile, Alice 2 made a disastrous $28.1 mil over the FSS weekend -- I'll be very surprised if it even makes $100 mil total boxoffice" Evans

[Doria]

Not to make excuses, but I think X-Men: Apocalypse suffers in part from Memorial Day weekend lag, in terms of movies still in theaters (and, I guess, the anemic competition of Alice).

Still, I did my part and saw it twice...

[YmoBeThere]

The Hollywood Stock Exchange was way off also.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Not to make excuses, but I think X-Men: Apocalypse suffers in part from Memorial Day weekend lag, in terms of movies still in theaters (and, I guess, the anemic competition of Alice).

Still, I did my part and saw it twice...

So... you hated it?

[BandAlum83]

-Jason "meanwhile, Alice 2 made a disastrous $28.1 mil over the FSS weekend -- I'll be very surprised if it even makes $100 mil total boxoffice" Evans

I obviously over estimated the box office appeal of Depp and Hathaway, and the buying power of the tween market.

OTOH, I haven't seen it yet, but would like to in non-3D, but is only playing in 3D nearby. Personally, the 3D trend is something I really don't enjoy.

[CameronBornAndBred]

OTOH, I haven't seen it yet, but would like to in non-3D, but is only playing in 3D nearby. Personally, the 3D trend is something I really don't enjoy.
We spent the weekend in Asheville, and caught Batman Vs Superman at Asheville Brewing's original location. It was the only movie showing, and you had to watch it in 3D; this was the first 3D movie I've seen since Avatar. I can safely say that I have not suffered any tragic losses by missing out on 3D with every movie I've seen between those two releases.
I enjoyed it, but given the option, I'll happily go with the glasses free experience.
Side note, if you are in Asheville, make the brew-n-view part of your trip. Dirt cheap movie ($3), great food and excellent beer to match.

[Doria]

So... you hated it?

I thought it had problems (foremost among them being incredibly unfriendly to non-fans of X-Men comics), but I enjoyed it a good amount. There are many things I thought they could easily have done that would've greatly benefitted the movie overall, but it really wasn't as bad as most reviews say; though I should probably also admit that I thought Civil War wasn't as good as most reviews said, either.

At the screenings I saw, the audience seemed to like it, too. There was a lot of laughter at the jokes, and at least one of the two ended in applause. My roommate and I might see it again tomorrow, too.

I was really just consoling JE on lamenting the pick.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

We spent the weekend in Asheville, and caught Batman Vs Superman at Asheville Brewing's original location. It was the only movie showing, and you had to watch it in 3D; this was the first 3D movie I've seen since Avatar. I can safely say that I have not suffered any tragic losses by missing out on 3D with every movie I've seen between those two releases.
I enjoyed it, but given the option, I'll happily go with the glasses free experience.
Side note, if you are in Asheville, make the brew-n-view part of your trip. Dirt cheap movie ($3), great food and excellent beer to match.

Usually, Asheville Brew and View does 2D Tuesdays.

Only 3D movie I enjoyed was Prometheus. Really well done.

[luburch]

Side note, if you are in Asheville, make the brew-n-view part of your trip. Dirt cheap movie ($3), great food and excellent beer to match.

I had my first experience with a movie grill this weekend. Beer was good and food was decent, but I think I still prefer to keep them separate :)

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I had my first experience with a movie grill this weekend. Beer was good and food was decent, but I think I still prefer to keep them separate :)

Personally, I feel it depends on the movie. For a superhero flick or comdey, it works great. For lofty art or high drama, not so much.

[JasonEvans]

The fact that no one voted for Now You See Me 2 was smart. I saw it last night and it was a mess. The plot made no sense and it features some of the worst acting you have ever seen. Daniel Radcliffe is particularly awful. Like much of the last movie, there is tons of magic that is not physically possible and is never explained. The movie frequently allows characters to be instantly hypnotized, which just isn't possible but allows the plot to do whatever it wants and then explain it away with hypnosis. This film follows almost the exact same beats at the first one, which means there is nothing even remotely surprising about it. I sorta liked the original, though I thought the ending was just awful, but this one is terrible.

As an aside, I also saw Popstar this week -- it is kinda cute at times and is a very good spoof on the music industry. The Lonely Island do amazing fake songs and those are a real highlight. I laughed out loud a lot! But, it often feels like a series of only loosely connected SNL skits and gets tiresome, especially in the middle. The plot is just so-so. Still, I'd muuuuch rather see that than the dreck that is NYSM2.

-Jason "much of NYSM2 is set in Macau as an obvious money-grab at the Asian market. Sigh -- the film reeks of Hollywood only being interested in money, not in quality" Evans

[luburch]

The fact that no one voted for Now You See Me 2 was smart. I saw it last night and it was a mess. The plot made no sense and it features some of the worst acting you have ever seen. Daniel Radcliffe is particularly awful. Like much of the last movie, there is tons of magic that is not physically possible and is never explained. The movie frequently allows characters to be instantly hypnotized, which just isn't possible but allows the plot to do whatever it wants and then explain it away with hypnosis. This film follows almost the exact same beats at the first one, which means there is nothing even remotely surprising about it. I sorta liked the original, though I thought the ending was just awful, but this one is terrible.

As an aside, I also saw Popstar this week -- it is kinda cute at times and is a very good spoof on the music industry. The Lonely Island do amazing fake songs and those are a real highlight. I laughed out loud a lot! But, it often feels like a series of only loosely connected SNL skits and gets tiresome, especially in the middle. The plot is just so-so. Still, I'd muuuuch rather see that than the dreck that is NYSM2.

-Jason "much of NYSM2 is set in Macau as an obvious money-grab at the Asian market. Sigh -- the film reeks of Hollywood only being interested in money, not in quality" Evans

Darn. I thoroughly enjoyed the original and was looking forward to the sequel.

[YmoBeThere]

Johnny's going through a lot of issues at the moment.

[JasonEvans]

Johnny's going through a lot of issues at the moment.

I'm missing something here...

[YmoBeThere]

I'm missing something here...

Mr. Depp. Marital discord and box office issues. Looking at historical results he hasn't had a really good film at the box office(US) in 5 or 6 years.

[JasonEvans]

Mr. Depp. Marital discord and box office issues. Looking at historical results he hasn't had a really good film at the box office(US) in 5 or 6 years.

Ahhhh, I should have gotten that was your "Johnny" reference.

To me, Johnny Depp is a guy who caught lightning in a bottle with Capt. Jack Sparrow but, aside from a couple years about a decade ago, has always been much more quirky than a boxoffice bank. I'm not sure what he is making per movie these days -- I'm sure Disney pays him $20+ mil to be Capt. Jack -- but I think anyone who gives him more than maybe $5 mil is wasting their money. The real question has to be, "who is giving him advice about the projects he picks?" because he has picked nothing but terrible scripts lately.

Ever since the first Alice movie (which succeeded because of the early fascination with 3D, I think) here are Johnny's boxoffice results as a star:

Dec 2010- The Tourist: $67 mil of boxoffice for a film with a $100+ mil budget. Huge failure.
May 2011 - Pirates 4: $241 mil of boxoffice on a $250 mil budget. Big international sales offset a very disappointing domestic number. Earned 20% less domestically than any other Pirates movie. This is probably the only Depp film to turn a profit since the first Alice flick.
Nov 2011 - The Rum Diary: $13 mil earned on a film with a $45 mil budget. Never set up to be a blockbuster, but still a massive disappointment
May 2012 - Dark Shadows: $79 mil boxoffice on a $150 mil budget. Again, good international sales allowed this film to not be a complete financial disaster, but it still lost a lot of money.
July 2013 - Lone Ranger: $89 mil boxofice on a $215 mil budget. Speaking of financial disasters... This flick tanked so bad, it hurt Disney's stock price.
April 2014 - Transcendence: $23 mil boxoffice with a budget of $115 mil. Another film that lost tens of millions of dollars for its backers.
Jan 2015 - Mortdecai: $7 mil of boxoffice with a $60 mil budget. Thank goodness Lionsgate only invested $60 mil (plus another $40 mil in marketing) in this flick. Financial nightmare!
Sept 2015 - Black Mass: $62 mil on a $53 mil budget! Yay!! His film makes its money back... well, not exactly. This flick did very poorly overseas (no surprise as it had an unique American character at its center) so it probably only managed to break even once you factor in marketing costs. At least it was Depp's first onscreen performance in more than half a decade in which critics did not utterly savage the film.
May 2016 - Alice 2: With a budget of over $170 mil and another $100+ mil in marketing costs, this looks like yet another financial bomb for Depp.

-Jason "whew... that's bad!" Evans

[BD80]

Johnny's going through a lot of issues at the moment.


Ahhhh, I should have gotten that was your "Johnny" reference.

...

Ever since the first Alice movie (which succeeded because of the early fascination with 3D, I think) here are Johnny's boxoffice results as a star:

Dec 2010- The Tourist: $67 mil of boxoffice for a film with a $100+ mil budget. Huge failure.
May 2011 - Pirates 4: $241 mil of boxoffice on a $250 mil budget. Big international sales offset a very disappointing domestic number. Earned 20% less domestically than any other Pirates movie. This is probably the only Depp film to turn a profit since the first Alice flick.
Nov 2011 - The Rum Diary: $13 mil earned on a film with a $45 mil budget. Never set up to be a blockbuster, but still a massive disappointment
May 2012 - Dark Shadows: $79 mil boxoffice on a $150 mil budget. Again, good international sales allowed this film to not be a complete financial disaster, but it still lost a lot of money.
July 2013 - Lone Ranger: $89 mil boxofice on a $215 mil budget. Speaking of financial disasters... This flick tanked so bad, it hurt Disney's stock price.
April 2014 - Transcendence: $23 mil boxoffice with a budget of $115 mil. Another film that lost tens of millions of dollars for its backers.
Jan 2015 - Mortdecai: $7 mil of boxoffice with a $60 mil budget. Thank goodness Lionsgate only invested $60 mil (plus another $40 mil in marketing) in this flick. Financial nightmare!
Sept 2015 - Black Mass: $62 mil on a $53 mil budget! Yay!! His film makes its money back... well, not exactly. This flick did very poorly overseas (no surprise as it had an unique American character at its center) so it probably only managed to break even once you factor in marketing costs. At least it was Depp's first onscreen performance in more than half a decade in which critics did not utterly savage the film.
May 2016 - Alice 2: With a budget of over $170 mil and another $100+ mil in marketing costs, this looks like yet another financial bomb for Depp.

-Jason "whew... that's bad!" Evans

Which Johnny is trending more poorly, Depp or Manziel?

[JasonEvans]

Which Johnny is trending more poorly, Depp or Manziel?

Well, Depp still has a paycheck. Manziel... not so much unless you count nightclubs that pay him appearance fees.

[BD80]

Well, Depp still has a paycheck. Manziel... not so much unless you count nightclubs that pay him appearance fees.

His allowance might be more than Depp's paychecks.

[YmoBeThere]

I guess I could have been referring to this guy(warning - contains some(simulated) graphic images):


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLEdpDpoTTA

Based on Depp's last few films, that's a fairly epic amount of wealth destruction. If he were running an investment fund, he would be out on the streets. Johnny Depp that is. Nice thing for him is that he gets paid something irrespective of results.

[Olympic Fan]

The fact that no one voted for Now You See Me 2 was smart. I saw it last night and it was a mess. The plot made no sense and it features some of the worst acting you have ever seen. Daniel Radcliffe is particularly awful. Like much of the last movie, there is tons of magic that is not physically possible and is never explained. The movie frequently allows characters to be instantly hypnotized, which just isn't possible but allows the plot to do whatever it wants and then explain it away with hypnosis. This film follows almost the exact same beats at the first one, which means there is nothing even remotely surprising about it. I sorta liked the original, though I thought the ending was just awful, but this one is terrible.

As an aside, I also saw Popstar this week -- it is kinda cute at times and is a very good spoof on the music industry. The Lonely Island do amazing fake songs and those are a real highlight. I laughed out loud a lot! But, it often feels like a series of only loosely connected SNL skits and gets tiresome, especially in the middle. The plot is just so-so. Still, I'd muuuuch rather see that than the dreck that is NYSM2.

-Jason "much of NYSM2 is set in Macau as an obvious money-grab at the Asian market. Sigh -- the film reeks of Hollywood only being interested in money, not in quality" Evans

I was disappointed in your take (I loved the original) ... but then I found this review, by Scott Mendleson of Forbes, a critic I really like (not that I don't like you, Jason, but I often disagree with your take on films):

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2016/06/02/review-now-you-see-me-2-offers-a-superior-bag-of-tricks-up-its-sleave/#18894d3f683a

I see that it is 55 percent on the Tomatometer ... which isn't that great. But it's still better than the original (which I loved), which got 49 percent.

So now I'm pumped (again!) to see it next weekend.

PS Looks like Mutant Ninja Turtles 2 is not going to be a contender after a very disappointing opening.

[luburch]

Little update for our two real contenders so far:

Civil War: 389mil total - 7.5mil estimate for this last weekend
X-Men: 116mil total - 22.3mil estimate

That's a 66% drop for X-Men from last weekend. Yikes. Civil War will end up above $400mil but not $500.

[JasonEvans]

Little update for our two real contenders so far:

Civil War: 389mil total - 7.5mil estimate for this last weekend
X-Men: 116mil total - 22.3mil estimate

That's a 66% drop for X-Men from last weekend. Yikes. Civil War will end up above $400mil but not $500.

Given the tremendous drop for X-Men and the fact that it is doing weak mid-week numbers, I'm now thinking XM:Apocalypse will only make about $170 million. It isn't going to come close to the $200+ mil it will take to be a strong contender in our contest. A whole lot of us are eliminated from any hope of going 5-for-5.

-Jason "sigh... I knew it the moment I saw that flick. Meanwhile, early buzz is that Finding Dory will be the biggest opening in Pixar history. Current leader - Toy Story 3 with $110 mil" Evans

P.S. - Now You See Me 2 is projected to open to less than $30 mil this coming weekend... not good.

[Olympic Fan]

P.S. - Now You See Me 2 is projected to open to less than $30 mil this coming weekend... not good.

I never thought it would be a contender in our contest -- which is why I didn't vote for it.

But that's a totally different issue from whether or not it's a good movie.

[BD80]

I never thought it would be a contender in our contest -- which is why I didn't vote for it.

But that's a totally different issue from whether or not it's a good movie.

One could argue there is a direct correlation, inverse, but direct. I need only say "Transformers."

[YmoBeThere]

I just saw NYSM, for me anytime I see Mark Ruffalo on screen, I just can't watch.

[DUKIECB]

My 7 year old has loved TMNT since he was 3 years old so guess what I'm doing this weekend...ugh. I checked RT just to see if there was any hope of me actually enjoying the movie myself when I read Peter Travers review from Rolling Stone. He loved it so much he had this to say:

"a torturous mindf--k for any sentient being over the age of infancy."

That made me laugh :)

[BD80]

My 7 year old has loved TMNT since he was 3 years old so guess what I'm doing this weekend...ugh. I checked RT just to see if there was any hope of me actually enjoying the movie myself when I read Peter Travers review from Rolling Stone. He loved it so much he had this to say:

"a torturous mindf--k for any sentient being over the age of infancy."

That made me laugh :)

Cowabunga dude! Just think of the Renaissance cornerstones spinning in their graves as their namesakes fight bad guys and eat pizza.

[Doria]

Wow, I didn't think it was even possible for him to dislike anything (or, at least, I thought that when I still regularly read RS, about a decade ago). Have fun! Based on that, it's sure to be experience to be treasured.

[YmoBeThere]

Are the bottom 2 or 3 of the Top 5 going to be movies that elicit a collective meh but lacking better alternatives garner enough to out pace the rest of the pack?

[BD80]

Status:

Release Title Total Open
05/06/16 CapAmerica:CW $396 M $179 M
05/20/16 Angry Birds $98 M $38 M
05/20/16 Neighbors 2 $53 M $21 M
05/27/16 Alice: TTLG $62 M $26 M
05/27/16 X-Men: Apocal $136 M $65 M
06/03/16 TMNT 2 $61 M $35 M
06/10/16 The Conjuring 2 $40 M $40 M
06/10/16 NowYouSeeMe2 $23 M $23 M
06/17/16 Finding Dory
06/24/16 ID: Resurgence
07/01/16 The BFG
07/08/16 Secret Life of Pets
07/15/16 Ghostbusters
07/22/16 ST: Beyond
07/29/16 Jason Borne
08/05/16 Suicide Squad

[Doria]

The Conjuring 2 had a great opening, admittedly against the domestic collapse of Warcraft, and if it follows the original's trajectory (a month earlier), it can be expected to have some legs. In retrospect, it would have been a better bet than Alice 2.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I think Pixar is gonna make a lot of money this weekend.

[aimo]

I think Pixar is gonna make a lot of money this weekend.

I LOVED Finding Nemo. To me, it was the first Pixar that truly blew my mind. I think it was the water effects. I hope hope hope that Dory isn't a letdown.

[DUKIECB]

Cowabunga dude! Just think of the Renaissance cornerstones spinning in their graves as their namesakes fight bad guys and eat pizza.Well, I survived TMNT this weekend but barely. Lord it was awful. I wholeheartedly concur with Mr. Travers' review.

However, when I asked my 7 year old son what he thought I think his exact response was "it was awesome!" :)

At least the next couple of kiddie movies will be ones I'm looking forward to myself (Dory, BFG and Pets). I'm sure we will see them all!

[Doria]

Well, I survived TMNT this weekend but barely. Lord it was awful. I wholeheartedly concur with Mr. Travers' review.

However, when I asked my 7 year old son what he thought I think his exact response was "it was awesome!" :)

At least the next couple of kiddie movies will be ones I'm looking forward to myself (Dory, BFG and Pets). I'm sure we will see them all!

I'm glad that your son enjoyed it (and that you emerged with your sanity relatively unscathed).

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I LOVED Finding Nemo. To me, it was the first Pixar that truly blew my mind. I think it was the water effects. I hope hope hope that Dory isn't a letdown.

Dory looks wildly promising. I expect it to get numbers to end up in the top two of our list.

Looks like one that kids will want to see four and five times and that parents will be tolerant of sitting through.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Dory looks wildly promising. I expect it to get numbers to end up in the top two of our list.

Looks like one that kids will want to see four and five times and that parents will be tolerant of sitting through.
So far, there is only one "rotten" review on RT, and it was basically the first review submitted. Since then, it has been a straight run of praise. Looks like a nice recovery for Pixar after The Good Dinosaur.

[Olympic Fan]

No big surprise, but Dory is now projecting a $140 million weekend -- the largest for an animated film in history. It's getting an A Cinemascore -- apparently just missing A+ by a hair. I read that it is projecting a 3.5 multiplier -- which would put its final take near $500 million.

That is going to make Dory the second lock in our final five (along with CA: Civil War)

[YmoBeThere]

No big surprise, but Dory is now projecting a $140 million weekend -- the largest for an animated film in history. It's getting an A Cinemascore -- apparently just missing A+ by a hair. I read that it is projecting a 3.5 multiplier -- which would put its final take near $500 million.

That is going to make Dory the second lock in our final five (along with CA: Civil War)

Looks like it will come in at $136 million. It will pass X-Men early next week.

[BD80]

No big surprise, but Dory is now projecting a $140 million weekend -- the largest for an animated film in history. It's getting an A Cinemascore -- apparently just missing A+ by a hair. I read that it is projecting a 3.5 multiplier -- which would put its final take near $500 million.

That is going to make Dory the second lock in our final five (along with CA: Civil War)

Will Dory take some $ from soon to be released BFG and Secret Life of Pets?

[BD80]

I sense trouble:

ID Resurgence isn't being previewed for American critics: bad.

Critics overseas are just over 50% on rotten tomato, saying it is just a visually stunning popcorn thriller. Turn off your brain and enjoy.

Could be good or bad. Sounds like any of the Fast and Furious franchise, or Transformers.

Apparently, although half of the planet is destroyed, nobody seems to die; again, Transformers. The movie defies logic and the laws of science at every turn.

Sigh. I voted for a movie whose best reviews call it "cheesy" and "brainless," which probably means its a cinch for the top 5 of the summer.

[luburch]

I sense trouble:

ID Resurgence isn't being previewed for American critics: bad.

Critics overseas are just over 50% on rotten tomato, saying it is just a visually stunning popcorn thriller. Turn off your brain and enjoy.

Could be good or bad. Sounds like any of the Fast and Furious franchise, or Transformers.

Apparently, although half of the planet is destroyed, nobody seems to die; again, Transformers. The movie defies logic and the laws of science at every turn.

Sigh. I voted for a movie whose best reviews call it "cheesy" and "brainless," which probably means its a cinch for the top 5 of the summer.

I voted for it, but I don't plan on going to see it..

[JasonEvans]

I voted for it, but I don't plan on going to see it..

I voted for it too and deeply regret that vote. Not only are the reviews lukewarm (like that matters for a sci-fi/alien attack franchise?!?!) but there just doesn't seem to be a lot of enthusiasm for this flick. Maybe it misses Will Smith more than initially expected. In any event, most Hollywood insiders are expecting an opening weekend in the $50 or $60 mil kind of range. With a number like that, unless it has good legs, it won't make it to $200 mil.

-Jason "sigh... I picked it because I thought it had a chance to be another Jurassic World... whew, was I ever wrong!" Evans

[Doria]

I voted for it, but I don't plan on going to see it..

Ditto, though that was my last pick, and it was really more of a Hail Mary because I didn't see anything else outperforming it (of the rest of the pack). But at this point, BFG looks like it could potentially do well. I don't know... I think ID will still do better than it has any right to, but who knows?

[CameronBornAndBred]

Ditto, though that was my last pick, and it was really more of a Hail Mary because I didn't see anything else outperforming it (of the rest of the pack). But at this point, BFG looks like it could potentially do well. I don't know... I think ID will still do better than it has any right to, but who knows?
Besides Finding Dory, it doesn't have any other real competition at the box office this weekend, has been given heavy ad exposure, and (at least for now) is above 50% on RT. Transformers, which continually suck, and has only been over 50% once (the first one), have all made tons of money. The lowest was Age of Extinction at 245mil. The highest gross was the second one (over 400mil) and it only had a 19% rating on RT.
It would not surprise me to see ID make it as #5. People love to see stuff blow up in the summer; the fact that the movie isn't horrible can only help squeeze a few more bucks.

[luburch]

It's not a summer movie, but the more I see of Fantastic Beasts the more excited I get for the film.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Besides Finding Dory, it doesn't have any other real competition at the box office this weekend, has been given heavy ad exposure, and (at least for now) is above 50% on RT. Transformers, which continually suck, and has only been over 50% once (the first one), have all made tons of money. The lowest was Age of Extinction at 245mil. The highest gross was the second one (over 400mil) and it only had a 19% rating on RT.
It would not surprise me to see ID make it as #5. People love to see stuff blow up in the summer; the fact that the movie isn't horrible can only help squeeze a few more bucks.
That lasted about 3 days. It has dropped to 40%. Still gonna make a bunch o' money, hopefully enough for top 5. I'm bummed out by seeing the tepid reviews for BFG, not only because I voted it, but because it's one that I wouldn't mind seeing.

[JasonEvans]

That lasted about 3 days. It has dropped to 40%. Still gonna make a bunch o' money, hopefully enough for top 5.

Nope. It is looking like about a $44 mil opening weekend for Independence Day 2, a disastrous number. The Cinemascore is just a B, which is not good. It seems unlikely that ID2 will even make $150 mil at the domestic boxoffice. It is not a player for the top 5 unless our top 5 is historically weak.

Meanwhile, Dory did more than $75 mil in its second weekend... a stunning number only 44% down from the huge opening weekend. There's a decent chance it passes Cap to be the top movie of the summer.

-Jason "if Dory has really long legs, it could impact other family films still to be released, like Secret Life of Pets and BFG" EVans

[CameronBornAndBred]

Nope. It is looking like about a $44 mil opening weekend for Independence Day 2, a disastrous number. The Cinemascore is just a B, which is not good. It seems unlikely that ID2 will even make $150 mil at the domestic boxoffice. It is not a player for the top 5 unless our top 5 is historically weak.
Gonna be awesome on my DVR this fall though! (After I record it on a free movie weekend.)

[BD80]

Gonna be awesome on my DVR this fall though! (After I record it on a free movie weekend.)

Unless it does well internationally, it could be on dvd by summer and network tv by fall!

[Udaman]

Well, the 40% who picked Independence Day are almost certainly going to lose. It was a huge dud this weekend, making less than $50M (less than X-Men did). By the way, I saw it, and was completely and utterly disappointed. Other than Hemsworth and Goldblum (and only them to a small degree) the acting was stiff, forced and completely uninspiring. There were no major battles. There were things that happened that made no sense. There we times people died for no reason, and way too many times where people should have died and didn't. This movie was bad. Much worse than X-Men (and that's saying something).

Anyway, our Top 5 will definitely be Civil War and Dory. Those of us who picked Pets and Suicide Squad have to be feeling good right now.

The 5th will be either X-Men, Star Trek, Ghostbusters, Bourne or BFG. I'm not sold on the last one...reviews have been kind of mixed.

[BD80]

... The 5th will be either X-Men, Star Trek, Ghostbusters, Bourne or BFG. I'm not sold on the last one...reviews have been kind of mixed.

Any buzz on the live action Tarzan dropping soon?

The trailers look pretty good, and Jungle Book may have primed the pump a bit

[JasonEvans]

Any buzz on the live action Tarzan dropping soon?

The trailers look pretty good, and Jungle Book may have primed the pump a bit

I saw it last night at a screening. It suffers badly in comparison to Jungle Book. The expensive and painstaking effects that made Jungle Book so great are not evident here. Some scenes are gorgeous in displaying the grandeur of Africa, but others have laughably bad visual effects, especially regarding the animals, who never look all that real. Rather than compared it to the remarkable effects in Jungle Book, I tried to compare it to the visual effects in Peter Jackson's King Kong, though it was not up to the standards of that movie either.

The story is somewhat surprising as it is not a Tarzan origin story, the movie only very briefly touches on the origins in a few scattered flashbacks. At first I was quite pleased with this as it allows the film to go in less predictable directions, but it did not help. The movie contains numerous scenes and storypoints that just do not matter in the final conclusion of the story. For example, there are repeated interactions with both animals and African tribesmen who are friends of Tarzan who seem poised to help him resolve the conflict of the movie, but none of them ever end up doing anything. It gets frustrating and the movie feels tiresome as a result. I was openly yawning at least a half dozen times in this flick.

The film has a great cast that is largely wasted. Christoph Waltz is clearly just cashing a paycheck playing a villainous bad guy who has no nuance. Samuel L Jackson is an American civil war hero who's job in the movie is to follow Tarzan around and pant with exhaustion at how slow he is compared to Tarzan. Margot Robbie is gorgeous as Jane and one of the strong points in the film, but she is relegated to nothing more than "damsel in distress" much of the time. Alexander Skarsgard looks like Tarzan but largely plays him as emotionless. Djimon Hounsou, a wonderful actor, has a bit part that makes no sense and is a real waste of his talents.

It isn't terrible, but it isn't nearly good. I doubt it makes $100 mil, heck I doubt it makes even $80 mil.

-Jason "there was a trailed for Suicide Squad at the start of the movie... that was the best 3 minutes of my evening!" Evans

[BD80]

... It isn't terrible, but it isn't nearly good. I doubt it makes $100 mil, heck I doubt it makes even $80 mil.

...

So right there with ID Resurgence, huh? Sigh.

My shot in the contest is for some movie that no one picked to sneak into the top 5.

[BD80]

Just figured out why IDResurgence did so poorly last week, everyone thought it was opening on Independence Day weekend!

Should bring in $150M this weekend alone and challenge for #1 of the summer. Right?

[YmoBeThere]

Just figured out why IDResurgence did so poorly last week, everyone thought it was opening on Independence Day weekend!

Should bring in $150M this weekend alone and challenge for #1 of the summer. Right?

I think this is the answer to your question. It was quite popular in my youth.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IivGqwQvdCI

[JasonEvans]

Wow, the BFG may be the biggest bomb of summer... and that's really saying something because there have been a lot of stinkers this summer.

It cost $140 mil to make and yet only did $19.6 mil in its opening weekend... and it was a holiday opening weekend too. Ouch! It will likely struggle to make even $60 million. It was totally dwarfed by Finding Dory, which is getting close to $400 mil and is likely on its way to being the biggest movie of the summer.

Tarzan ($38.1 mil) did better than expected, but won't be a player in our contest. It may make $100 mil, but not much more than that. Meanwhile, ID2 dropped almost 60% from its opening weekend to earn just $16.5 million. It now stands at $72.6 million in total boxoffice and will not be a player in our contest. It likely will only make something around $125 million. Oh well, I voted poorly.

-Jason "kinda incredible, but it seems we are at July 4th and only 2 of the top 5 movies of summer have hit screens. I suspect the other 3 will be films released after July 4th, which is not how this usually goes" Evans

[bjornolf]

-Jason "there was a trailed for Suicide Squad at the start of the movie... that was the best 3 minutes of my evening!" Evans

Is there a new trailer for SS?

[JasonEvans]

Is there a new trailer for SS?

No, it was the Ballroom Blitz trailer from a couple months ago. Still love it though!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5AwUdTIbA8I

[DUKIECB]

Wow, the BFG may be the biggest bomb of summer... and that's really saying something because there have been a lot of stinkers this summer.

It cost $140 mil to make and yet only did $19.6 mil in its opening weekend... and it was a holiday opening weekend too. Ouch! It will likely struggle to make even $60 million. It was totally dwarfed by Finding Dory, which is getting close to $400 mil and is likely on its way to being the biggest movie of the summer. Our family took in the BFG over the weekend and we all really enjoyed it. Kind of weird for a movie with fairly heavy marketing, big name director, positive reviews and positive cinema score to do so poorly. One thing that hurt it in my opinion was it was the middle release of three really big and heavily marketed kids films in a short 4 week period with Dory and Pets being the bookends. We almost didn't see it either because 3 kiddie movies in 4 weeks is a lot and if we were going to drop one it would have been BFG if only because it would give us a break between the other 2.

[Olympic Fan]

Our family took in the BFG over the weekend and we all really enjoyed it. Kind of weird for a movie with fairly heavy marketing, big name director, positive reviews and positive cinema score to do so poorly. One thing that hurt it in my opinion was it was the middle release of three really big and heavily marketed kids films in a short 4 week period with Dory and Pets being the bookends. We almost didn't see it either because 3 kiddie movies in 4 weeks is a lot and if we were going to drop one it would have been BFG if only because it would give us a break between the other 2.

Weird, but not unique ... in 1939, a big-budget Hollywood film, based on a popular child's story, with an A (well, maybe A-minus) cast and A-list major director Victor Fleming was given a huge, expensive launch ... it generated generally positive reviews and good word of mouth.

But the Wizard of Oz failed to beak even during its initial run. According to MGM, the film didn't turn a profit until a 1949 re-release.

Maybe BFG will follow that path.

[BD80]

Weird, but not unique ... in 1939, a big-budget Hollywood film, based on a popular child's story, with an A (well, maybe A-minus) cast and A-list major director Victor Fleming was given a huge, expensive launch ... it generated generally positive reviews and good word of mouth.

But the Wizard of Oz failed to beak even during its initial run. According to MGM, the film didn't turn a profit until a 1949 re-release.

Maybe BFG will follow that path.

Dorothy was sort of the original BFG.

[Doria]

Dorothy was sort of the original BFG.

That has given me an image early in the day that I probably won't be able to forget for the rest of the day, so thanks for that ;)

[YmoBeThere]

Did you have some Munchkins at Dunkin Donuts to compensate?



Yeah, weird I know.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Dorothy was sort of the original BFG.

Dorothy was certainly "friendly," but I'm pretty sure a "friend of Dorothy" is something different entirely.

[Olympic Fan]

Well, I think we got our third sure winner in our contest this week -- The estimate I just saw was a $97 million opening weekend for The Secret Life of Pets.

I was looking at the totals for the movies on our contest.

We have two certain wins already -- both Finding Dory and CA: Civil War are over $400 million domestic.

After that, the last three spots are pretty wide open. Our contest entries stack up this way:

X-Men Apocalypse -- $154 million
Angry Birds -- $105 million
Central Intelligence -- $102 million
The Conjuring 2 -- $98 million
The Secret Life of Pets -- $97 million (estimated)
ID: Resurgence -- $85 million

Pets is easily going to clear $200 million ... X-men is almost done -- I doubt that $160 million or so will make the top 5.

The only other film on that list with any life left is Central Intelligence ... and even that one is likely to come up just short of $150 million.

So, I guess the point is that with Dory, Cap' America and now Pets almost certain to be in the final five, where do our other two winners come from? Can Star Trek do it? What about Suicide Squad? Ghostbusters? Bourne?

Just checking ... who's still alive to go 5-for-5? Don't look at me -- I blew my wad on Independence Day! (Note: I also had X-men, which is PROBABLY, but not yet definitely, a loser)

[BD80]

Well, I think we got our third sure winner in our contest this week -- The estimate I just saw was a $97 million opening weekend for The Secret Life of Pets.

I was looking at the totals for the movies on our contest.

We have two certain wins already -- both Finding Dory and CA: Civil War are over $400 million domestic.

After that, the last three spots are pretty wide open. Our contest entries stack up this way:

X-Men Apocalypse -- $154 million
Angry Birds -- $105 million
Central Intelligence -- $102 million
The Conjuring 2 -- $98 million
The Secret Life of Pets -- $97 million (estimated)
ID: Resurgence -- $85 million

Pets is easily going to clear $200 million ... X-men is almost done -- I doubt that $160 million or so will make the top 5.

The only other film on that list with any life left is Central Intelligence ... and even that one is likely to come up just short of $150 million.

So, I guess the point is that with Dory, Cap' America and now Pets almost certain to be in the final five, where do our other two winners come from? Can Star Trek do it? What about Suicide Squad? Ghostbusters? Bourne?

Just checking ... who's still alive to go 5-for-5? Don't look at me -- I blew my wad on Independence Day! (Note: I also had X-men, which is PROBABLY, but not yet definitely, a loser)

Star Trek, Bourne and Suicide Squad come out on consecutive weeks. I think SSquad will cut the legs out from the other 2 when it is released.

[bjornolf]

I'm alive but on life support. I had X, Cap, SLOP, Dory, and SS.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Dory, Pets, X, Civil, ST... still alive, but barely. Would love to replace X with SS.

[Reisen]

I'm alive but on life support. I had X, Cap, SLOP, Dory, and SS.

These are my picks as well. I think the last 4 will be correct, but Xmen will probably be replaced by either Star Trek or Bourne.

[YmoBeThere]

Looks like they are projecting Secret Life of Pets at $103 million now. No, it doesn't change the likelihood it will make the Top 5 but does make the naming of the sequel more important(okay, not really).

[luburch]

Looks like they are projecting Secret Life of Pets at $103 million now. No, it doesn't change the likelihood it will make the Top 5 but does make the naming of the sequel more important(okay, not really).

NSLOP? The Not So Secret Life of Pets?

[BD80]

looks like they are projecting secret life of pets at $103 million now. No, it doesn't change the likelihood it will make the top 5 but does make the naming of the sequel more important(okay, not really).

mo-slop

[YmoBeThere]

SLOPY

Secret Life of Pets Yet (again)

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

Ive still got Secret Life of Pets, Dory, X-Men, Suicide Squad, and Cap America alive. Looks like the only one to be concerned with is XMen, but I don't really see a movie that can topple it. I am positive Suicide Squad will make it into the top 5, but can Star Trek or Bourne take X Men out? I don't know it will be a close one, I really wanted to see both but I guess with being alive in this contest I will have to not see it and tell all my friends that its awful.. :cool:

[dpslaw]

Has everyone written off Ghostbusters?

[JasonEvans]

Has everyone written off Ghostbusters?

The reviews are good, but not great. Lots of folks seem to be saying it works but not as well as the original did. I'm seeing it tonight and will weigh in with my thoughts afterwards.

-Jason "early tracking puts the opening around $50 million -- it will be tough to be a strong top 5 contender with an opening like that unless it has looong legs" Evans

[JasonEvans]

-Jason "early tracking puts the opening around $50 million -- it will be tough to be a strong top 5 contender with an opening like that unless it has looong legs" Evans

I just realized that maybe there is a fundamental flaw in my logic this summer. Traditionally, we get 5 films that earn $200 mil (or darn close to it) in the summer. Sure, last summer we had the Pitch Perfect 2 vs MI:Rogue Nation controversy where I mistakenly closed the contest too soon to let Rogue get a full run in which means that PP2's $184 mil came in 5th place, but if we had allowed everyone to finish their run we would have had MI:RN as our #5 film at $195 million.

So, what have the #5 films earned over the past several years?


2015 - Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation - $195 mil
2014 - XMen:DOFP - $233 mil (3 other films made $200+ mil)
2013 - Fast and Furious 6 - $238 mil (2 others made $200+)
2012 - Ted - $218 mil (1 other made $200 mil)
2011 - Cars 2 - $191 mil
2010 - Despicable Me - $251 mil (1 other made $200+ mil)
2009 - Star Trek - $257 mil

So, as you can see it takes at least $190+ mil to be in the conversation and, most years, you need to be north of $225 mil to get into the top 5.

But, maybe this summer is different. It has been a very disappointing season at the boxoffice thus far. There is a long line, at this point, of films that cost $125+ million to make (all of which cost at least another $75 mil in marketing and distribution costs) that are not going to make even $100 mil in total domestic boxoffice. Aside from Dory, Cap, and the Pets it has been a weak summer for tentpoles.

So, bottom line, maybe XMen or something else that makes only about $160 million does have a chance to be #5 in our contest. Maybe this is the summer with the weakest 5th place yet. Maybe a $50 mil opening for Ghostbusters isn't a bad thing.

-Jason "my bet is that it will take at least $175 mil to grab the #5 spot -- but other than Suicide Squad I'm really unsure which other films can get to $175 mil" Evans

[BD80]

The reviews are good, but not great. Lots of folks seem to be saying it works but not as well as the original did. I'm seeing it tonight and will weigh in with my thoughts afterwards.

-Jason "early tracking puts the opening around $50 million -- it will be tough to be a strong top 5 contender with an opening like that unless it has looong legs" Evans

First time Melissa McCarthy has EVER been in a discussion involving long legs

[Reisen]

The reviews are good, but not great. Lots of folks seem to be saying it works but not as well as the original did. I'm seeing it tonight and will weigh in with my thoughts afterwards.

-Jason "early tracking puts the opening around $50 million -- it will be tough to be a strong top 5 contender with an opening like that unless it has looong legs" Evans

If anyone's curious, current HSX prices for the 4 films we're discussing for the 5th spot:

Ghostbusters: $117
XMen (delisted): $146
Star Trek: $151
Bourne: $160.

[YmoBeThere]

Are the bottom 2 or 3 of the Top 5 going to be movies that elicit a collective meh but lacking better alternatives garner enough to out pace the rest of the pack?


I just realized that maybe there is a fundamental flaw in my logic this summer. Traditionally, we get 5 films that earn $200 mil (or darn close to it) in the summer. S
So, bottom line, maybe XMen or something else that makes only about $160 million does have a chance to be #5 in our contest. Maybe this is the summer with the weakest 5th place yet.

I tried to say something similar a couple weeks back but it didn't come out right at all. Mainly I was trying rationalize my having picked X-men and Bourne.

[JasonEvans]

I tried to say something similar a couple weeks back but it didn't come out right at all. Mainly I was trying rationalize my having picked X-men and Bourne.

There's almost a zero percent chance that X-Men and Bourne both make the top 5. Three of the top 5 are set (Cap, Dory, Pets) and it would be shocking for Suicide Squad to make less than about $250 million. Put another way, 4 of our top 5 are all but written in stone. The only question is #5. Currently that spot is held by X-Men, but it is almost done and stands at $154.5 mil in boxoffice so the only real debate is whether Bourne or Star Trek can make more than $155 million.

-Jason "but could there be another contender?!?! Who you gonna call?" Evans

[BD80]

There's almost a zero percent chance that X-Men and Bourne both make the top 5. Three of the top 5 are set (Cap, Dory, Pets) and it would be shocking for Suicide Squad to make less than about $250 million. Put another way, 4 of our top 5 are all but written in stone. The only question is #5. Currently that spot is held by X-Men, but it is almost done and stands at $154.5 mil in boxoffice so the only real debate is whether Bourne or Star Trek can make more than $155 million.

-Jason "but could there be another contender?!?! Who you gonna call?" Evans

Boastgusters?

[YmoBeThere]

At $46 million, it doesn't appear enough people phoned the Ghostbusters this weekend for them to be a contender. Unless it has really long legs. And last time I checked, that's a no go for Ms. McCarthy.

For comparison sake, X-Men: Apocalypse did $66 million in its opening weekend. Albeit it had the advantage of opening Memorial Day weekend.

Some think Suicide Squad will be an easy contender: http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2016/07/14/box-office-suicide-squad-bracing-for-record-opening/#4550b2124041

Having just seen Deadpool this weekend, I'm starting to think I've thrown in the towel on the comic inspired films too early.

[luburch]

So far the reviews for Star Trek seem positive. 93% on RT. I imagine that number will drop some, but how much?

[bjornolf]

I was so torn between X-Men and Star Trek. Guess I chose wrong. I let the percentages of others be my guide. Ah well. Maybe next year.

[YmoBeThere]

So, Friday's numbers for Star Trek Beyond ($22.5 million) put it behind X Men Apocalypse ($26.3 million). One released on a holiday weekend and had much worse RT scores, but not exactly an overwhelming start for Trekkies. Maybe it will have longer legs.

[BD80]

So, Friday's numbers for Star Trek Beyond ($22.5 million) put it behind X Men Apocalypse ($26.3 million). One released on a holiday weekend and had much worse RT scores, but not exactly an overwhelming start for Trekkies. Maybe it will have longer legs.

But it is running into Bourne and Suicide Squad releases in the next two weeks.

[YmoBeThere]

But it is running into Bourne and Suicide Squad releases in the next two weeks.

Yes, so it seems unlikely to make it, but it also seems a bit early to call it after one day in theaters.

[DU82]

Yes, so it seems unlikely to make it, but it also seems a bit early to call it after one day in theaters.

Saw it this morning. A lot more people in the theatre than was there when I saw other movies earlier this year (there were about 5 others to what ID4-S.) It might have legs (although I'm still waiting on X-Men and ID4 to make a late surge!)

Highly recommend it. The movie flowed well, and good bits of humor throughout. Better than the first two reboot movies. The main villain was OK, not great, with the other new crew good additions (a few of promise made it to the end, a few didn't.)

No spoilers, but a nice tribute to Leonard Nimoy/Ambassador Spock that was a (small) component of the storyline. (The end credits had dedications to the "loving memory of Leonard Nimoy" and "For Anton".)

[Olympic Fan]

Star Trek came in at $59.6 million for the first weekend -- less than X-Men Apocalypse, which was just over $79 million in his first weekend (although that was a four-day holiday weekend).

On the other hand, X-Men had extraordinarily short legs. If Star Trek has the normal 2.6 multiplier it will be a bit over $154 million -- which pits it right in the ballpark with X-Men ($155.1 million). Trek did get far better scores on Rotten Tomatoes and audience ratings, so it ought to have longer legs.

Of course, that might not happen with Bourne and Suicide Squad coming up in the next two weeks ... still, I think it's too early to write Trek off (unlike Ghostbusters, which was DOA).

PS Tough lead up for the latest Trek movie, losing both Leonard Nimoy (Spock Prime in the reboot) and Anton Yelchin (Chekov)

[BD80]

Star Trek came in at $59.6 million for the first weekend -- less than X-Men Apocalypse, which was just over $79 million in his first weekend (although that was a four-day holiday weekend).

On the other hand, X-Men had extraordinarily short legs. If Star Trek has the normal 2.6 multiplier it will be a bit over $154 million -- which pits it right in the ballpark with X-Men ($155.1 million). Trek did get far better scores on Rotten Tomatoes and audience ratings, so it ought to have longer legs.

Of course, that might not happen with Bourne and Suicide Squad coming up in the next two weeks ... still, I think it's too early to write Trek off (unlike Ghostbusters, which was DOA).

PS Tough lead up for the latest Trek movie, losing both Leonard Nimoy (Spock Prime in the reboot) and Anton Yelchin (Chekov)

X-Men's 3-day weekend was $65.8M, giving it an awful multiplier of 2.4. The only major release this summer with a worse multiplier is TMNT at 2.3.

Tarzan has surprising "legs" (hello Margot Robbie!) at 3.0, which with Dory (3.4) are two of the 3 films this summer over a 3 multiplier. The highest multiplier this summer was a bit of a surprise (to me).

...?

[JasonEvans]

X-Men's 3-day weekend was $65.8M, giving it an awful multiplier of 2.4. The only major release this summer with a worse multiplier is TMNT at 2.3.

Tarzan has surprising "legs" (hello Margot Robbie!) at 3.0, which with Dory (3.4) are two of the 3 films this summer over a 3 multiplier. The highest multiplier this summer was a bit of a surprise (to me).

...?

Central Intelligence has a 3.47, which is (for now) the highest multiplier among widely released films this summer. Not a big surprise to me as it was pretty funny and I could see it having good word of mouth but it was not a movie that folks saw and thought, "I need to see that opening weekend!"

Kids movies are almost always the top multipliers. Zootopia did a 4.5 multiplier. Jungle Book did a 3.5. Kung Fu Panda 3 did just under 3.5.

-Jason "this coming weekend will be key for Star Trek Beyond -- it needs to hold up well because Suicide Squad could really decimate its audience in 2 weeks" Evans

[BandAlum83]

X-Men's 3-day weekend was $65.8M, giving it an awful multiplier of 2.4. The only major release this summer with a worse multiplier is TMNT at 2.3.

Tarzan has surprising "legs" (hello Margot Robbie!) at 3.0, which with Dory (3.4) are two of the 3 films this summer over a 3 multiplier. The highest multiplier this summer was a bit of a surprise (to me).

...?

I'm not surprised that Margot Robbie is drawing at the box office. It wouldn't surprise me if she becomes the new "it girl" commanding top $ to be in a movie. If she hits on one serious role for a nomination, the sky is the limit for that woman. IMHO

[luburch]

So quite a few trailers dropped over the weekend:

Justice League (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gglkYMGRYlE)
Wonder Woman (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lGoQhFb4NM)
Kong: Skull Island (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E591L_sxw-k)

I didn't realize that Chris Pine was in Wonder Woman.

[JasonEvans]

So quite a few trailers dropped over the weekend:

Justice League (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gglkYMGRYlE)
Wonder Woman (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lGoQhFb4NM)
Kong: Skull Island (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E591L_sxw-k)

I didn't realize that Chris Pine was in Wonder Woman.

You forgot to mention Dr. Strange, which looks pretty out there, but also pretty cool.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chxmZZM2d2g

Marvel also showed a Guardians of the Galaxy 2 trailer, but it has not released on line. It sounds really funny, which is what DC totally misses. The Wonder Woman trailer left me so blaah though I did enjoy the humor in the Justice League trailer. My son was excited about Kong: Skull Island and he doesn't even know that the plan is to have Kong battle Godzilla in a future movie.

-Jason "I'm also pretty excited about the trailer for the Lego Batman movie (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMdQXYQ_MD8) -- I'd take this over BvS every day of the week! Evans

[luburch]

You forgot to mention Dr. Strange, which looks pretty out there, but also pretty cool.

Marvel also showed a Guardians of the Galaxy 2 trailer, but it has not released on line. It sounds really funny, which is what DC totally misses. The Wonder Woman trailer left me so blaah though I did enjoy the humor in the Justice League trailer. My son was excited about Kong: Skull Island and he doesn't even know that the plan is to have Kong battle Godzilla in a future movie.

-Jason "I'm also pretty excited about the trailer for the Lego Batman movie (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMdQXYQ_MD8) -- I'd take this over BvS every day of the week! Evans

I missed another as well ( and probably many more). A new Fantastic Beasts trailer:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YdgQj7xcDJo

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

I'm not surprised that Margot Robbie is drawing at the box office. It wouldn't surprise me if she becomes the new "it girl" commanding top $ to be in a movie. If she hits on one serious role for a nomination, the sky is the limit for that woman. IMHO


That role is going to be Harley Quinn in Suicide Squad. Shes going to be a huge star after this movie. Every girl I know age 34 and under is so pumped for this movie to finally have Harley as a character. Every girl will be dressed as her for Halloween its going to be crazy.

[bjornolf]

That role is going to be Harley Quinn in Suicide Squad. Shes going to be a huge star after this movie. Every girl I know age 34 and under is so pumped for this movie to finally have Harley as a character. Every girl will be dressed as her for Halloween its going to be crazy.

My sister in law looks a little like her, has a Harley Quinn costume, and LOVE HQ. She is SO pumped. She's 39. :rolleyes:

She looks a little like MR, but no question looking at the cartoons and comics, she looks JUST like HQ.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

My sister in law looks a little like her, has a Harley Quinn costume, and LOVE HQ. She is SO pumped. She's 39. :rolleyes:

She looks a little like MR, but no question looking at the cartoons and comics, she looks JUST like HQ.

haha yea I don't know many women over 34 so I cut it off there to be accurate with my statement. I'm sure women in their 40s and maybe even 50s are excited about the Harley Quinn roll.

[Doria]

haha yea I don't know many women over 34 so I cut it off there to be accurate with my statement. I'm sure women in their 40s and maybe even 50s are excited about the Harley Quinn roll.

I'm well over 40, and I'm a huge HQ fan, too (though more the old Batan: TAS and pre-New 52 comics version of her).

[DU82]

An early review of JasonBourne, from a comic book site. Says it may be the worst movie of the summer...

http://spinoff.comicbookresources.com/2016/07/26/review-jason-bourne-might-be-the-worst-movie-of-the-summer/

[JasonEvans]

An early review of JasonBourne, from a comic book site. Says it may be the worst movie of the summer...

http://spinoff.comicbookresources.com/2016/07/26/review-jason-bourne-might-be-the-worst-movie-of-the-summer/

I saw it last night and agree with almost every word of that review. The film starts out ok, including an extended chase sequence through a protest/riot in Athens that is gorgeous and remarkably realistically staged, but soon becomes incredibly tedious and boring. At first I thought we were just getting build up to a clever finish that would tie everything together and turn the somewhat slow middle into some kind of interesting payoff, but that never even came close to happening. Instead, when the movie reaches its finale in Las Vegas (the final half hour of the flick) it veers into utter absurdity. Every single moment in Vegas is ridiculous with storytelling that is so bad, it almost seems like they were intentionally trying to commit every spy movie sin possible. It... is... awful!!!

I have never walked out of a movie in my life, but in the midst of Vincel Cassell and Matt Damon's climactic car chase, I came sooooo close to standing up and leaving. I was viscerally mad at the film at that point for treating the audience like idiots.

I'm hoping that all of you will not waste your money on this train wreck. Would folks be upset if I chronicled the numerous absurd plot devices in the finale that had me rolling my eyes?

-Jason "thanks to the robust international locales, this film will probably do good overseas business... but I really hope Damon does not get lured back to make another of these. The franchise is DONE" Evans

[DUKIECB]

I saw it last night and agree with almost every word of that review. The film starts out ok, including an extended chase sequence through a protest/riot in Athens that is gorgeous and remarkably realistically staged, but soon becomes incredibly tedious and boring. At first I thought we were just getting build up to a clever finish that would tie everything together and turn the somewhat slow middle into some kind of interesting payoff, but that never even came close to happening. Instead, when the movie reaches its finale in Las Vegas (the final half hour of the flick) it veers into utter absurdity. Every single moment in Vegas is ridiculous with storytelling that is so bad, it almost seems like they were intentionally trying to commit every spy movie sin possible. It... is... awful!!!

I have never walked out of a movie in my life, but in the midst of Vincel Cassell and Matt Damon's climactic car chase, I came sooooo close to standing up and leaving. I was viscerally mad at the film at that point for treating the audience like idiots.

I'm hoping that all of you will not waste your money on this train wreck. Would folks be upset if I chronicled the numerous absurd plot devices in the finale that had me rolling my eyes?

-Jason "thanks to the robust international locales, this film will probably do good overseas business... but I really hope Damon does not get lured back to make another of these. The franchise is DONE" EvansOh no! Say it ain't so Jason. I love the Bourne movies and was so looking forward to this and now you have ruined it :) Just kidding!

I probably will still see it but man what a bummer. On to Suicide Squad I guess.

[BD80]

... -Jason "... but I really hope Damon does not get lured back to make another of these. The franchise is DONE" Evans

So you're saying they should have left him on Mars?

This is good news for Star Trek's chances, doesn't sound like Bourne will divert ticket sales.

[JasonEvans]

Seems as good a time as any to update where things stand at the moment:


Finding Dory - $461.3 mil - still doing decent boxoffice. An outside shot at being the 7th film all-time to hit $500 mil.
Cap: Civil War - $406.8 mil - seems like an eternity since this came out.
SLOPets - $265.1 mil - still going strong making it likely to reach $300 mil.
X-men: Apocalypse - $155.3 mil - can it hold on to the #5 spot (it won't get #4)? So many contenders have failed to live up to expectations.
Central Intelligence - $123.4 mil - showing extremely long legs, but no real chance to catch X-men.
Tarzan - $116.8 - likely to beat Central Intelligence but also will not catch X-Men


Ghostbusters dropped 54% in weekend #2 and is still below $90 mil in total boxoffice. It won't get to $150 mil unless something about its trajectory changes. I think Ghostbusters may be hurt by Bad Moms, which opens this weekend and is really, really funny. The adult female audience is likely to gravitate to that flick. Star Trek has a chance, we need to see how it holds up in week #2. I don't think anything else currently in theaters is a contender to top X-Men and make the top 5.

This weekend brings Bourne, which is terrible but is expected to do around $60 million, similar to Star Trek. Those two have a definite shot at topping X-Men. In fact, I would bet that one of them gets to $160+ mil. Next weekend brings Suicide Squad, which is a mortal lock to make the top 5. Early tracking says it will open in the area of $120 million. It will probably be in our top 5 after being in theaters for a week.

-Jason "so, who has Dory, Cap, SLOP, SSquad, and Trek? I really think that will be the top 5 when all is said and done" Evans

[aimo]

-Jason "so, who has Dory, Cap, SLOP, SSquad, and Trek? I really think that will be the top 5 when all is said and done" Evans

I have four out of the five. Picked Independence Day instead of SSquad.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I have four out of the five. Picked Independence Day instead of SSquad.

I have four of those five, with XMen instead of SS, so technically I am still alive

[mkirsh]

-Jason "so, who has Dory, Cap, SLOP, SSquad, and Trek? I really think that will be the top 5 when all is said and done" Evans

I have Dory, Cap, Pets, SSquad with Xmen instead of Star Trek, so may be a photo finish

[Nick]

I have Dory, Cap, Pets, SSquad with Xmen instead of Star Trek, so may be a photo finish

I picked The BFG instead of Pets. Still keeping my fingers crossed on The BFG, Spielberg can still turn this thing around, right? Right?

[bjornolf]

I have Dory, Cap, Pets, SSquad with Xmen instead of Star Trek, so may be a photo finish

Me too.

[Olympic Fan]

It looks like Star Trek is going to have a hard time reaching the $155 million or so it's going to need to challenge X-Men. Big (60/61 percent) dropoff in its second weekend. It should end the weekend at $102-104 million total.

On the other hand, Bourse is opening strong -- after Friday night projected for the same $60 million opening weekend as Trek a week earlier. Also getting an A- cinemascore, which may help it have legs ... then again, Suicide Squad may stunt its growth.

http://deadline.com/2016/07/jason-bourne-bad-moms-nerve-opening-weekend-box-office-results-1201795475/

Strong opening for Bad Moms. It won't be a factor in our contest, but it could push Central Intelligence for the top adult comedy of the summer award. (Well, maybe you could count Ghostbusters, which just barely topped $100 million in its third weekend).

[JasonEvans]

Awww !@#$^@^#~&^!!

The critics are all killing Suicide Squad. It is at 33% on Rotten Tomatoes and one critic has even uttered these terrifying words... gulp... "makes one almost nostalgic for 'Batman v Superman.'" Yikes!! DC flubs again!

But, it is still going to be in our top 5. Thanks to a slew of fun, funny trailers that remind us of Marvel movies (and apparently completely hide the dark, dismal tone of this film), this DC flick is expected to open north of $120 million this weekend and even bad reviews cannot keep it from making $200+ million. No film has ever had an opening weekend of $100+ mil and failed to make $200 mil. In fact, the worst performance of any film that opened over $100 mil was X-Men: The Last Stand which opened at $102.7 mil and ended up making $234 million. Every film that opened over $105 million has made at least $281 million at the boxoffice. So, even if the reviews are lackluster, Suicide Squad is making at least $250 mil, I would say (and probably more like $300-$350 mil).

Of course, at some point DC is going to wear out their welcome with moviegoing audiences. In the past half decade since Christopher Nolan left Batman, there hasn't been a single DC movie that was rated "fresh" by critics. The best of the bunch is Man of Steel, at 55% on Rotten Tomatoes. By comparison, Marvel is yet to produce a movie that was not "fresh," the worst films being Thor: The Dark World (66%) and The Incredible Hulk (67%). Put another way, the absolute worst film Marvel can make is better than the best film DC has made. Ummm, that's a problem.

I am missing the Suicide Squad screening in my town tonight. But, like many of the rest of you, I will plumk down my $10+ to be disappointed this weekend. Sigh... frankly, the Wonder Woman and Justice League trailers at ComicCon didn't seem much better.

-Jason "DC needs to spend $50-$75 million to pry Kevin Feggie away from Marvel... or maybe see if Josh Whedon will make a movie for them... price is no object at this point!" Evans