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View Full Version : 5 Most Dominant NCAA Title Runs in the Analytics Era (2002-2016)



DukeTrinity11
04-15-2016, 11:39 AM
http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2016/04/14/villanova-wildcats-national-championship-title-game

1. Villanova 2016 (+52.9 Adjusted Efficiency Margin)
2. UNC 2009 (+42.4 Adjusted Efficiency Margin)
3. Duke 2010 (+42.2 Adjusted Efficiency Margin)
4. Duke 2015 (+42.0 Adjusted Efficiency Margin)
5. Florida 2006 (+41.4 Adjusted Efficiency Margin)

Some major surprises here for me...I was pleasantly surprised to see that Duke 2010 being ranked #3 among the past 15 national champions on the analytics front given how Duke haters often talk about how that's the weakest championship team they've ever seen. ;)

Also, wait for it...Duke 2015 had the best defensive showing in the NCAA Tournament among the past 15 national champions!!! This is remarkable for a team that was ranked #57 by KenPom before the Big Dance and was probably in the 100s to start the year after the nightmare games vs. NC State and Miami.

I'm also shocked to see Kentucky 2012 ranked as the 3rd worst championship team in this timeframe. They looked pretty dominant to me with the eye test but maybe the level of competition was down in 2011-12?

As for Villanova, the analytics show exactly what my eyes had been telling me for the past month watching them-the tournament version of this team was a complete juggernaut.

I'm of the opinion that the Villanova team that played Miami and Oklahoma in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight would have beaten basically any other college championship team ever on those specific days. They were just that damn good.

COYS
04-15-2016, 12:16 PM
http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2016/04/14/villanova-wildcats-national-championship-title-game

1. Villanova 2016 (+52.9 Adjusted Efficiency Margin)
2. UNC 2009 (+42.4 Adjusted Efficiency Margin)
3. Duke 2010 (+42.2 Adjusted Efficiency Margin)
4. Duke 2015 (+42.0 Adjusted Efficiency Margin)
5. Florida 2006 (+41.4 Adjusted Efficiency Margin)

Some major surprises here for me...I was pleasantly surprised to see that Duke 2010 being ranked #3 among the past 15 national champions on the analytics front given how Duke haters often talk about how that's the weakest championship team they've ever seen. ;)

Also, wait for it...Duke 2015 had the best defensive showing in the NCAA Tournament among the past 15 national champions!!! This is remarkable for a team that was ranked #57 by KenPom before the Big Dance and was probably in the 100s to start the year after the nightmare games vs. NC State and Miami.

I'm also shocked to see Kentucky 2012 ranked as the 3rd worst championship team in this timeframe. They looked pretty dominant to me with the eye test but maybe the level of competition was down in 2011-12?

As for Villanova, the analytics show exactly what my eyes had been telling me for the past month watching them-the tournament version of this team was a complete juggernaut.

I'm of the opinion that the Villanova team that played Miami and Oklahoma in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight would have beaten basically any other college championship team ever on those specific days. They were just that damn good.

This is a really interesting list. That 'Nova takes the prize doesn't surprise me at all. Their demolition of Oklahoma will probably never be topped. What's incredible is how far out in front of all the other champions that lopsided victory over Oklahoma moved 'Nova. The difference between 'Nova and second place 2009 UNC is more than the difference between the 2nd place champion and the 13th place (third to last) 2012 UK team. Wow. I know that this year was supposedly the year without truly "elite" teams, but 'Nova played at an unbelievably dominant level previously unseen once the post season came around. The list of teams 'Nova vanquished along the way, Kansas, Oklahoma, and UNC, is really impressive. Not only were they dominant, they were dominant against some of the best teams in the tourney.

I think it's really funny how different this list using adjusted efficiency is probably very different from an eye-test list. I bet a lot of other people would rank Duke 2015 above Duke 2010 even though I know many Duke fans who follow the program closely are aware of just how dominant the 2010 team really was. It's also fascinating to see that Duke 2015 played the best tournament defense of any team in this period. The transformation of that team was phenomenal.

As for 2012 UK, though they rank only 13th on the list, KenPom's numbers are weighted relative to the strength of teams in each season and can only indirectly be compared across years. In other words, what this list really says is that Villanova 2016 was the strongest tournament team relative to other tournament teams in their championship year. It is entirely possible that if the 2012 UK team had been transported to 2016, it could rank higher. On the other hand, that UK team simply wasn't as good on the defensive end as some other champs, so perhaps it would not have mattered.

GGLC
04-15-2016, 12:40 PM
Also, wait for it...Duke 2015 had the best defensive showing in the NCAA Tournament among the past 15 national champions!!!

Matt Jones says hi. :) (And Sam Dekker still has nightmares.)

DukeTrinity11
04-15-2016, 01:06 PM
Matt Jones says hi. :) (And Sam Dekker still has nightmares.)

Yep the same Sam Dekker that shredded Arizona and Kentucky's wing defense the 2 games prior!

Our fanbase seems to have very short memories when it comes to Matt Jones. Some Duke grads and fans I've spoken to recently (not on DBR) think that it would be ludicrous for Matt to start and play more than 15-20 mins next year since he's "clearly" only the 8th best option on next year's team. Heck, some of them think he should only play in garbage time! :confused:

I can't wait for a healthy Matt Jones to prove them wrong next year but I digress...

MCFinARL
04-15-2016, 01:10 PM
Yep the same Sam Dekker that shredded Arizona and Kentucky's wing defense the 2 games prior!

Our fanbase seems to have very short memories when it comes to Matt Jones. Some Duke grads and fans I've spoken to recently (not on DBR) think that it would be ludicrous for Matt to start and play more than 15-20 mins next year since he's "clearly" only the 8th best option on next year's team. Heck, some of them think he should only play in garbage time! :confused:

I can't wait for a healthy Matt Jones to prove them wrong next year but I digress...

Everybody says they want good defense but few people actually perceive it when they see it, and in the end, it's easier to recognize--and clamor for--offense.

Richard Berg
04-15-2016, 01:13 PM
I'm not sure how valuable this ranking is in an absolute sense, but I agree it is internally consistent. Any analysis that gives heavy weight to Nova's demolition of Oklahoma will also give heavy weight to 2010 Duke's demolition of WVU.

If you include the runners-up, where do they slot into the rankings? (I wouldn't include teams that lose on FF Saturday or earlier, since the lack of extra games against championship-caliber competition would skew the stats.)

DukeTrinity11
04-15-2016, 01:19 PM
Everybody says they want good defense but few people actually perceive it when they see it, and in the end, it's easier to recognize--and clamor for--offense.

So true-count me in as part of the majority of the fanbase that cringes every time Matt tries to score around the hoop or hoist up one of his awkward floaters. That seems to stick in our collective memory more than the 95% of the time he plays great defense or hits key 3 pointers. He was clearly injured in the latter part of this season so I think we're all suffering from some recency bias too in our evaluation of him.

We're going to need vintage Matt Jones defense to show up when we come up against the Josh Jacksons, Justin Jacksons, Josh Harts and Malik Monks of the world in the preconference, ACC season and postseason if we want to accomplish big things next year.

ipatent
04-15-2016, 01:25 PM
Go back further than that and IU 1981 probably would be at the very top.

Troublemaker
04-15-2016, 01:29 PM
Everybody says they want good defense but few people actually perceive it when they see it, and in the end, it's easier to recognize--and clamor for--offense.

However, it probably is easier to recognize when Matt is off-the-ball guarding the likes of Dekker, Damion Lee, and Malcolm Brogdon. This past season, he was probably guarding PGs a bit too much for my taste, and I'm a big Matt fan. Hopefully someone steps up next season to be a good PG-defender so Matt can do his work on wings where he excels.

DevilBen02
04-15-2016, 01:50 PM
I was pleasantly surprised to see that Duke 2010 being ranked #3 among the past 15 national champions on the analytics front given how Duke haters often talk about how that's the weakest championship team they've ever seen. ;)

I have a feeling that those Duke haters will see this data as confirming that the 2010 team had an easy draw. Specifically, they'll say that the only reason our efficiency margin was so great was because we didn't have to face tough teams. They'd be wrong, but that's what they'd say.

Wander
04-15-2016, 02:06 PM
Matt Jones says hi. :) (And Sam Dekker still has nightmares.)

Matt Jones played fine defense, but I remember the jump in defense mostly being a result of (1) Quinn Cook's sudden and still-inexplicable-to-me jump into being a lockdown defender in March after being pretty bad on that end for most of the regular season and (2) Justise being fully healthy.

MChambers
04-15-2016, 02:06 PM
I have a feeling that those Duke haters will see this data as confirming that the 2010 team had an easy draw. Specifically, they'll say that the only reason our efficiency margin was so great was because we didn't have to face tough teams. They'd be wrong, but that's what they'd say.

If they say that, they'll be revealing their ignorance, because adjusted efficiency takes into account the strength of the opponent.

Listen to Quants
04-15-2016, 03:43 PM
I've always found Winn one of the best, most thoughtful writers. Hope he doesn't groan when he re-reads his " ... and even more future NBA players, in the quartet of Tyler Hansbrough, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, Ty Lawson and Ed Davis." Stuff happens.

Nice offseason article, thanks.

MCFinARL
04-15-2016, 04:05 PM
If they say that, they'll be revealing their ignorance, because adjusted efficiency takes into account the strength of the opponent.

Historically, revealing their own ignorance has seldom prevented people who enjoy criticizing Duke from doing so. :)


I've always found Winn one of the best, most thoughtful writers. Hope he doesn't groan when he re-reads his " ... and even more future NBA players, in the quartet of Tyler Hansbrough, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, Ty Lawson and Ed Davis." Stuff happens.

Nice offseason article, thanks.

Wow. Did he learn math from a UNC grad?

MChambers
04-15-2016, 04:09 PM
Wow. Did he learn math from a UNC grad?
Looks like Winn fulfilled his undergrad math requirement through UNC math classes one summer.

jimsumner
04-15-2016, 08:13 PM
I was told there would be no math.

jv001
04-15-2016, 10:35 PM
Matt Jones played fine defense, but I remember the jump in defense mostly being a result of (1) Quinn Cook's sudden and still-inexplicable-to-me jump into being a lockdown defender in March after being pretty bad on that end for most of the regular season and (2) Justise being fully healthy.

Agree and I'd say that Jahil improved his defense at the end of the season as well. For most of the season, it looked like he played just enough D to stay out of foul trouble. GoDuke!

Edouble
04-15-2016, 11:33 PM
For most of the season, it looked like he played just enough D to stay out of foul trouble. GoDuke!

You mean he played as much D as he could without getting into foul trouble? The more D you play, the more likely you are to get into foul trouble.

Indoor66
04-16-2016, 07:36 AM
Agree and I'd say that Jahil improved his defense at the end of the season as well. For most of the season, it looked like he played just enough D to stay out of foul trouble. GoDuke!

IRRC, he also played a good part of the year with a foot injury.

jv001
04-16-2016, 08:03 AM
IRRC, he also played a good part of the year with a foot injury.

That to. I forgot about his foot injury. GoDuke!

Dean knew!

TruBlu
04-16-2016, 08:54 AM
IRRC, he also played a good part of the year with a foot injury.


That to. I forgot about his foot injury. GoDuke!

Dean knew!

A foot injury to a Duke basketball player?!? Never happens!:p:mad:

BandAlum83
04-16-2016, 10:42 AM
IRRC, he also played a good part of the year with a foot injury.

I Rarely Recall Correctly?

devildeac
04-16-2016, 12:48 PM
I Rarely Recall Correctly?

That probably fits for Indoor66.

:p

Indoor66
04-16-2016, 02:30 PM
That probably fits for Indoor66.

:p

I NEVER like to refer to "I". :p:cool:

NSDukeFan
04-17-2016, 08:40 PM
That to. I forgot about his foot injury. GoDuke!

Dean knew!

That Jah had a foot injury or that UNC had the worst cheating scandal in NCAA history over a 20+ year period?