Phase VIII Report - 2016 Offseason

[Saratoga2]

Pardon me and my past mid 70's perspective, but I don't think we have ever issued and off season phase report. Since we are still recruiting Bolden, there may be one or more players going pro, or transferring, but that information can await official announcements. With Plumlee leaving and Brandon leaving that leaves a lot of guys who have some things to work on in the off season. Maybe there can be some entertaining thoughts about what they should do.

Grayson:
If Grayson returns, he really already has the full package and if anything needs to control his emotions and avoid creating further fodder for his detractors.
Amile:
Amile is already a double double guys and a terrific defender. He needs to make sure the foot is fully healed and if not get it taken care of with surgery soon.
Matt:
Don't know what Matt can do. His defense is mature and his speed and scoring ability are unlikely to make a major leap forward.
Luke:
Luke is already our best rebounding guard and has a pretty reliable handle. His 3 point shot could be more reliable and he needs to learn to exploint his good driving ability
Derryck

[Rich]

Pardon me and my past mid 70's perspective, but I don't think we have ever issued and off season phase report. Since we are still recruiting Bolden, there may be one or more players going pro, or transferring, but that information can await official announcements. With Plumlee leaving and Brandon leaving that leaves a lot of guys who have some things to work on in the off season. Maybe there can be some entertaining thoughts about what they should do.

Grayson:
If Grayson returns, he really already has the full package and if anything needs to control his emotions and avoid creating further fodder for his detractors.
Amile:
Amile is already a double double guys and a terrific defender. He needs to make sure the foot is fully healed and if not get it taken care of with surgery soon.
Matt:
Don't know what Matt can do. His defense is mature and his speed and scoring ability are unlikely to make a major leap forward.
Luke:
Luke is already our best rebounding guard and has a pretty reliable handle. His 3 point shot could be more reliable and he needs to learn to exploint his good driving ability
Derryck

That sure is an ominous break after Derryck's name!

[COYS]

Pardon me and my past mid 70's perspective, but I don't think we have ever issued and off season phase report. Since we are still recruiting Bolden, there may be one or more players going pro, or transferring, but that information can await official announcements. With Plumlee leaving and Brandon leaving that leaves a lot of guys who have some things to work on in the off season. Maybe there can be some entertaining thoughts about what they should do.

Grayson:
If Grayson returns, he really already has the full package and if anything needs to control his emotions and avoid creating further fodder for his detractors.
Amile:
Amile is already a double double guys and a terrific defender. He needs to make sure the foot is fully healed and if not get it taken care of with surgery soon.
Matt:
Don't know what Matt can do. His defense is mature and his speed and scoring ability are unlikely to make a major leap forward.
Luke:
Luke is already our best rebounding guard and has a pretty reliable handle. His 3 point shot could be more reliable and he needs to learn to exploint his good driving ability
Derryck

This is a cool idea for a thread. I'd like to say that while Matt is unlikely to improve his speed or leaping ability, I DO think he'll improve quite a bit. It's easy to forget how good he looked as a three and D guy earlier this season because he looked so much slower after he hurt his ankle. This is a guy who torched Gonzaga in the Elite Eight last season, too. He can be very important and effective on offense because he is a catch and shoot specialist who spreads the floor and doesn't need the ball in his hands. It's true that his athleticism is a weakness, but he proved during his sophomore season and during the first part of this season that when he is fully healthy, he has just enough physical tools to be effective. Even a small improvement in his shooting (getting his shot off a little faster and a little more accurately) will go a long way to helping him have an excellent senior season. With so many guys who are used to having the ball in their hands, Matt projects to be the perfect glue guy. We'll need him to play at the level he played earlier this season, at the very least. But I suspect he'll find ways to improve.

The other thing I'd say is that all of our guys need to improve their defense. Losing Amile and having no depth definitely hurt, as everyone played heavy minutes and were most often guarding bigger players, which is exhausting. Simply having Harry, a healthy Amile, Chase, Javin, and possibly Marques as options will go a long way toward helping our defense, which was fine (though not elite) prior to Amile's injury. That being said, the better our guards get at icing ball screens, rotating and recovering, boxing out, and otherwise playing team D, the better our chances of having a special season next year.

[Saratoga2]

Pardon me and my past mid 70's perspective, but I don't think we have ever issued and off season phase report. Since we are still recruiting Bolden, there may be one or more players going pro, or transferring, but that information can await official announcements. With Plumlee leaving and Brandon leaving that leaves a lot of guys who have some things to work on in the off season. Maybe there can be some entertaining thoughts about what they should do.

Grayson:
If Grayson returns, he really already has the full package and if anything needs to control his emotions and avoid creating further fodder for his detractors.
Amile:
Amile is already a double double guys and a terrific defender. He needs to make sure the foot is fully healed and if not get it taken care of with surgery soon.
Matt:
Don't know what Matt can do. His defense is mature and his speed and scoring ability are unlikely to make a major leap forward.
Luke:
Luke is already our best rebounding guard and has a pretty reliable handle. His 3 point shot could be more reliable and he needs to learn to exploint his good driving ability
Derryck
Derryck is our best PG prospect with a good handle and great speed. He can work on his decision making, his shooting and finishing on drives. Good freshman year which could be much better with more experience.
Chase
Chase needs to get stronger and more confident. He can work on his moves near the basket and work with Amile to get better on defense. Lots of potential to be a strong contributor going forward.
Vrank?
Still don't know what happened with him this season. You can't teach size and he would be the biggest and fairly athletic player would could put on the floor.
Sean
Those knees may limit Seans development. Too bad as he made a couple of contributions in very little PT this year.
Justin
He has good size and is somewhat of an athlete. Hang in there and develop. He may get a few minutes here and there.


New Players:
We have to expect both Harry and Jason to become starters pretty early in the season if not from day one. Harry needs to get his knee sound and ready to go while Jayson is a terrific player and ready now. I expect Harry to play PF and Jayson to play SF.
Frank
He is a high enough recruiting target to get a lot of PT this coming year. While not thought of primarily as a PG, that is the most likely place for him to get PT so he will need to work on his handle and get ready to handle that difficult job for a freshman along with Derryck.
Javier
Big strong kid with a motor. Not thought to be at the skill level of the other newbies so he needs to develop his game. Would have loved to have had a kid like that this year.
Jack
Reminds me a little of Luke in that he handles the ball well, seems to want to be a rebounder and is capable of running the floor and scoring. Needs to learn the Duke offense and defense but I expect good things from him this year.

Quite a few names and Bolden isn't even talked about year. This will be a year of opportunity for coach K as well. Will he take advantage of the depth and play a rotation of 9 instead of 6 1/2 this year?

[COYS]

Quite a few names and Bolden isn't even talked about year. This will be a year of opportunity for coach K as well. Will he take advantage of the depth and play a rotation of 9 instead of 6 1/2 this year?

To be fair to K, even though he likes his 7/7.5 man rotations, I don't think he ever wants to have a 6.5 (6.25?) man rotation again. And even the original 7.5 man rotation this season was a product of many different events, including Semi's transfer, Justise and Tyus' leap to the NBA, Obi's lack of readiness, perhaps due to an unfortunate chronic injury, and Amile's injury. A 7.5 man rotation in which Chase is the eight or ninth man looks really good. We just ended up with absolutely no margin for bad events like an injury to a key player, which happened, unfortunately. Next season I bet we'll see K revert back to a 7.5, 8 or perhaps even 8.5 man rotation but at the same time, there will be more depth waiting in the wings than there was this year. In fact, if the staff does need to bring Harry along slowly to start the season, we really could see a true 8-man rotation.

To be honest, though, I think Duke has the best chance of winning it all if Harry is fully recovered and is ready to play major minutes at both forward spots from day 1. He's a consensus top 3 NBA prospect and K has a history of getting the most out of guys with that level of skill. That is the biggest offseason question for me. Can he return to form and look like a potential number 1 pick? My prediction is that while we might see an 8 or 8.5 man rotation early on, come tourney time it will be clear who our top 7/7.5 guys are.

[CDu]

Justin
He has good size and is somewhat of an athlete. Hang in there and develop. He may get a few minutes here and there.

I don't think there is much expectation of Robinson being any more of a contributor in games than Patrick Johnson did.



Javier
Big strong kid with a motor. Not thought to be at the skill level of the other newbies so he needs to develop his game. Would have loved to have had a kid like that this year.

Nothing to add here except that his name is Javin DeLaurier.


Jack
Reminds me a little of Luke in that he handles the ball well, seems to want to be a rebounder and is capable of running the floor and scoring. Needs to learn the Duke offense and defense but I expect good things from him this year.

I don't see much similarity between White and Kennard at all. I think he's more like Olek Czyz than like Kennard. And I wouldn''t expect much from him this coming year.


Quite a few names and Bolden isn't even talked about year. This will be a year of opportunity for coach K as well. Will he take advantage of the depth and play a rotation of 9 instead of 6 1/2 this year?

I doubt we'll play deeper into the rotation than 8. But I'd also note that if Bolden comes we will have to have someone else to leave "unexpectedly."

[Kedsy]

I doubt we'll play deeper into the rotation than 8. But I'd also note that if Bolden comes we will have to have someone else to leave "unexpectedly."

If Grayson returns and we play an 8-man rotation, then (absent injury) it would probably mean Chase Jeter is not in it:

Matt Jones
Grayson Allen
Luke Kennard
Frank Jackson
Jayson Tatum
Amile Jefferson
Harry Giles
Derryck Thornton/Marques Bolden

I'm assuming if Marques Bolden comes to Duke, the expectation will be that he will at least play low-end rotation minutes. Which would mean Chase would likely be the 9th man, so if we play an 8-man rotation, he'd be on the outside looking in.

So I looked at Duke bigs since the RSCI was invented ranked between 11 and 25 (inclusive), to get a feel for how likely it is that a guy like Chase couldn't break into the rotation as a sophomore (mpg numbers count DNP-CD as 0):



Player RSCI Fr mpg So mpg % change
Mason Plumlee 18 14.1 25.6 81.6%
Lance Thomas 20 14.0 17.4 24.3%
Shav Randolph 14 13.5 19.2 42.2%
Amile Jefferson 21 11.3 22.7 100.9%
Chase Jeter 14 7.1 ?
Brian Zoubek 25 7.1 7.7 8.5%
Ryan Kelly 14 5.7 20.1 252.6%
Casey Sanders 16 4.2 9.6 128.6%


Obviously, the above numbers were influenced by the depth of the team and quality of Duke's other players, but only two of the seven players similar to Chase failed to earn at least 17 mpg their sophomore seasons, and all but one of them increased their minutes by at least 24% from freshman to sophomore seasons (all but two of them increased at least 42%). On the other side, only one of three such players who didn't earn double-figure minutes as freshmen did so as sophomores.

So, will Chase Jeter be more like Brian Zoubek and Casey Sanders, or more like Ryan Kelly and Amile Jefferson? I'd say the historical perspective is inconclusive. But if Chase improves over the summer, as I expect he will, perhaps we really can make a legitimate case for a 9-man rotation in 2016-17.

Or, with Coach K's history, perhaps not.

[CDu]

If Grayson returns and we play an 8-man rotation, then (absent injury) it would probably mean Chase Jeter is not in it:

Matt Jones
Grayson Allen
Luke Kennard
Frank Jackson
Jayson Tatum
Amile Jefferson
Harry Giles
Derryck Thornton/Marques Bolden

I'm assuming if Marques Bolden comes to Duke, the expectation will be that he will at least play low-end rotation minutes. Which would mean Chase would likely be the 9th man, so if we play an 8-man rotation, he'd be on the outside looking in.

So I looked at Duke bigs since the RSCI was invented ranked between 11 and 25 (inclusive), to get a feel for how likely it is that a guy like Chase couldn't break into the rotation as a sophomore (mpg numbers count DNP-CD as 0):



Player RSCI Fr mpg So mpg % change
Mason Plumlee 18 14.1 25.6 81.6%
Lance Thomas 20 14.0 17.4 24.3%
Shav Randolph 14 13.5 19.2 42.2%
Amile Jefferson 21 11.3 22.7 100.9%
Chase Jeter 14 7.1 ?
Brian Zoubek 25 7.1 7.7 8.5%
Ryan Kelly 14 5.7 20.1 252.6%
Casey Sanders 16 4.2 9.6 128.6%


Obviously, the above numbers were influenced by the depth of the team and quality of Duke's other players, but only two of the seven players similar to Chase failed to earn at least 17 mpg their sophomore seasons, and all but one of them increased their minutes by at least 24% from freshman to sophomore seasons (all but two of them increased at least 42%). On the other side, only one of three such players who didn't earn double-figure minutes as freshmen did so as sophomores.

So, will Chase Jeter be more like Brian Zoubek and Casey Sanders, or more like Ryan Kelly and Amile Jefferson? I'd say the historical perspective is inconclusive. But if Chase improves over the summer, as I expect he will, perhaps we really can make a legitimate case for a 9-man rotation in 2016-17.

Or, with Coach K's history, perhaps not.

Yes, it likely depends on whether Bolden comes and whether he or Jeter is ready to contribute more next year. If they both are ready and able, then it comes down to Coach K's willingness to extend from his comfort zone to go to a 9-man rotation.

I will say this though. There isn't really a need for both Jeter and Bolden to play next year. With Jefferson and Giles at PF/C and with Tatum likely to play some PF too, they don't have a need for two backup Cs. So it is quite conceivable that if Bolden comes then one of Bolden or Jeter will see few minutes next year at Duke.

[jv001]

If Grayson returns and we play an 8-man rotation, then (absent injury) it would probably mean Chase Jeter is not in it:

Matt Jones
Grayson Allen
Luke Kennard
Frank Jackson
Jayson Tatum
Amile Jefferson
Harry Giles
Derryck Thornton/Marques Bolden

I'm assuming if Marques Bolden comes to Duke, the expectation will be that he will at least play low-end rotation minutes. Which would mean Chase would likely be the 9th man, so if we play an 8-man rotation, he'd be on the outside looking in.

So I looked at Duke bigs since the RSCI was invented ranked between 11 and 25 (inclusive), to get a feel for how likely it is that a guy like Chase couldn't break into the rotation as a sophomore (mpg numbers count DNP-CD as 0):



Player RSCI Fr mpg So mpg % change
Mason Plumlee 18 14.1 25.6 81.6%
Lance Thomas 20 14.0 17.4 24.3%
Shav Randolph 14 13.5 19.2 42.2%
Amile Jefferson 21 11.3 22.7 100.9%
Chase Jeter 14 7.1 ?
Brian Zoubek 25 7.1 7.7 8.5%
Ryan Kelly 14 5.7 20.1 252.6%
Casey Sanders 16 4.2 9.6 128.6%


Obviously, the above numbers were influenced by the depth of the team and quality of Duke's other players, but only two of the seven players similar to Chase failed to earn at least 17 mpg their sophomore seasons, and all but one of them increased their minutes by at least 24% from freshman to sophomore seasons (all but two of them increased at least 42%). On the other side, only one of three such players who didn't earn double-figure minutes as freshmen did so as sophomores.

So, will Chase Jeter be more like Brian Zoubek and Casey Sanders, or more like Ryan Kelly and Amile Jefferson? I'd say the historical perspective is inconclusive. But if Chase improves over the summer, as I expect he will, perhaps we really can make a legitimate case for a 9-man rotation in 2016-17.

Or, with Coach K's history, perhaps not.

I long for the season that you mention(9 man rotation). I'd like to see a team that can bring in 3-4 players at a time that can actually hold their own or better than that, can increase the lead while they're in the game. I know that's probably like wishing I'll win the lottery when in reality I don't play the lottery. It wasn't that long ago lot's of regular posters on DBR thought we had that type team. But when the season got under way, we saw reality hit. Those bench players were just not that good and of course injuries come it to play as well. Ah, maybe 2016-2017 season will be that year. I'm not holding my breath though. :cool:GoDuke!

[bedeviled]

Derryck is our best PG prospect with a good handle and great speed. He can work on his decision making, his shooting and finishing on drives. Good freshman year which could be much better with more experienceDerryck developed an offensive thoughtfulness/craftiness that I think is overlooked, not just in him but in college basketball as a whole. As the year progressed, Derryck was making dribbling sorties into the defense without an apparent immediate need to pass or shoot - not all the time, certainly, but I was impressed with it a number of times. Relatedly, I thought his shot selection improved over the year.


Superfluous soccer analogy
The best place to witness this offensive tactic is in soccer. Oftentimes in soccer, the team on defense organizes a number of guys between the goal and the ball. As long as the defense stays in formation, it is very, very difficult for the offensive team to advance the ball any further towards the goal - it's the same as trying to break down a zone in basketball.
Some common offensive tactics to breakdown defensive organization in soccer:

switch/swing the ball around the perimeter. Easy, but often fruitless because the defenders can adjust their positioning easily.
switch/overlap positions so that defenders get confused about who they are responsible for covering in the area. Defensive communication helps to solve this.
pass/dribble into soft spots in the coverage, like feeding a basketball player at the foul line against Syracuse. But, defensive schemes are designed such that

soft spots are in less threatening locations
the defense adjusts and forces the offense to release the ball back out of the protected area.
have a particularly skilled player, like a Messi or a Grayson Allen, slash through the organization toward the goal. Easier in basketball than soccer due to foul rules.
So, how do soccer players break a good defensive organization? By passes and dribbles that don't necessarily attack the goal but, rather, stretch and break the organization. The offense tries to get defenders out of position so that subsequent attacks can be launched at the actual target. For instance, a team might focus on breaking down the organization on the distant corner of the defensive perimeter because that sets up a run down the sideline, which then has the ability to make a better cross/entry-pass into the scoring area. Offensive tactics aren't always just about going straight to goal.
Too often, young basketball players feel like the offense has to always be focused on the basket and that the end result of any drive has to be a shot or an assist. Indeed, I don't think many experienced college guards use indirect tactics to potential in a thoughtful manner (From past viewing, I wouldn't be surprised if Duke, Louisville, and Ohio State explicitly teach it). Anyway, I noticed that Derryck developed this less immediate, less direct tactic as the year progressed.

With my high praise covered above, I will state that I'd like to see Derryck work on his defense more than his offense. His late arrival surely hampered his development, and I hope he is in a situation where he can get some tutelage and practice in this area over the summer. The idea that he was our "best on-ball defender" seemed to have taken root at the beginning of the year. From my perspective, it wasn't true then and it wasn't true by the end of the year. I speculate that it was a hopeful viewpoint born from our concern about recent Duke guards' ability to stay in front of driving opponents. While he may have been our quickest moving player, Derryck was not the best at defending slashing (even if just talking about opponents' PGs), entry passes, setting up offensive sets, or picks (especially picks). Given our enviable offensive prowess, I think he would have seen more PT if his defensive abilities were as people have said. Certainly, Derryck will improve on both sides of the ball as he develops. Personally, for his sake, I'm more encouraged that he can spend time on the defensive part of his game.

[Kedsy]

Yes, it likely depends on whether Bolden comes and whether he or Jeter is ready to contribute more next year. If they both are ready and able, then it comes down to Coach K's willingness to extend from his comfort zone to go to a 9-man rotation.

I will say this though. There isn't really a need for both Jeter and Bolden to play next year. With Jefferson and Giles at PF/C and with Tatum likely to play some PF too, they don't have a need for two backup Cs. So it is quite conceivable that if Bolden comes then one of Bolden or Jeter will see few minutes next year at Duke.

Even if Marques doesn't come to Duke, if we suffer no player defections Chase would still be the 9th man. If Grayson leaves and/or airowe's prediction comes true, then if Marques goes elsewhere Chase would presumably rise to the 8th (or even 7th, if we lose two players) man.

I agree with you that we probably won't "need" both Chase and Marques to play next season. The question is, if both are capable of being 15+ mpg contributors whether Coach K would choose to play them both or not.

[CDu]

Even if Marques doesn't come to Duke, if we suffer no player defections Chase would still be the 9th man. If Grayson leaves and/or airowe's prediction comes true, then if Marques goes elsewhere Chase would presumably rise to the 8th (or even 7th, if we lose two players) man.

I agree with you that we probably won't "need" both Chase and Marques to play next season. The question is, if both are capable of being 15+ mpg contributors whether Coach K would choose to play them both or not.

Right, that was my point. Outside of need, Coach K has almost never deviated from the 7-8 man rotation. This is perhaps best evidenced by last season, when he didn't turn to Allen as a regular rotation player until after Sulaimon was dismissed. Allen probably COULD have played more right away, but didn't (except in blowouts). The same situation aplies next year. So if we have 9 or more ready players it will come down to whether Coach K chooses to change his approach and include extra guys in the rotation simply because they are ready.

[InSpades]

Yes, it likely depends on whether Bolden comes and whether he or Jeter is ready to contribute more next year. If they both are ready and able, then it comes down to Coach K's willingness to extend from his comfort zone to go to a 9-man rotation.

I will say this though. There isn't really a need for both Jeter and Bolden to play next year. With Jefferson and Giles at PF/C and with Tatum likely to play some PF too, they don't have a need for two backup Cs. So it is quite conceivable that if Bolden comes then one of Bolden or Jeter will see few minutes next year at Duke.

9-man college rotations are few and far between. Took a quick glance at the elite 8 games:
Nova: 22, 12, 12 46 23%
Kansas: 7, 6, 5 18 9%
Oklahoma: 21, 13, 11 45 23%
Oregon: 28, 12, 1 41 21%
Notre Dame: 21, 5, 2 28 14%
UNCheat: 17, 15, 13, 4 49 25%
Syracuse: 14, 9 23 12%
UVA: 18, 13, 13, 6 50 25%

This is team, followed by # of minutes played past the top 5 minute-getters, then the total, then the percentage of total minutes played.

7 deep - Syracuse, Notre Dame, Oregon
8 deep - Oklahoma, Nova
9 deep - UNC and UVA but the 9th men got 4 and 6 minutes respectively, so basically 8 deep and the deepest teams in the elite 8.

Then Kansas who barely used their bench at all. 18 minutes total. Luke/Derryk usually got that by themselves.

It's very unlikely that K uses a 9-man rotation when the games matter most. This isn't the NBA where the depth of your talent is incredible. Where your 8th man might be just slightly worse than your 3rd man. You find out who your best guys are and then you play them lots of minutes. That's the winning recipe (for K and apparently a lot of other coaches).

That's not to say Duke wasn't hamstrung a bit this year... it's tough to play w/ 6 (or 6.25). And Duke's drop off after Jeter was pretty big (you could say the drop off to Jeter was pretty big as well).

[Doria]

At the very least, I look forward to a Duke team that can actually simulate in practice defenses they're likely to face. I also look forward to seeing Phase Reports where "Injury/Health" isn't the top item for each of them. So to me, next year is already better, and I think that of our current roster, I'd like to see Chase and Luke both a little more comfortable defensively. I have no opinion on likely rosters, having not studied them as much as others. But it's nice to have options, and we'll see what shakes out in the next couple weeks. Presumably, we'll know a lot more sooner rather than later.

Ah, I should add that I'm looking forward to being able to use M2M the whole game without as much fear of fouls and/or exhaustion.

[fraggler]

Right, that was my point. Outside of need, Coach K has almost never deviated from the 7-8 man rotation. This is perhaps best evidenced by last season, when he didn't turn to Allen as a regular rotation player until after Sulaimon was dismissed. Allen probably COULD have played more right away, but didn't (except in blowouts). The same situation aplies next year. So if we have 9 or more ready players it will come down to whether Coach K chooses to change his approach and include extra guys in the rotation simply because they are ready.

Not just playing a lot of players, but that many post players. I think the 2009-2010 team was one of the only times we had so many big men who could potentially earn minutes. We went roughly 8.5 deep that season. In fact, that looks like a slightly analogous roster to look at.

[CDu]

I'd also add that DeLaurier is not a "big strong kid." He's a lanky kid with really good hops/explosiveness. Think Antonio Lang type of frame, not Shelden Williams.

[CDu]

Not just playing a lot of players, but that many post players. I think the 2009-2010 team was one of the only times we had so many big men who could potentially earn minutes. We went roughly 8.5 deep that season. In fact, that looks like a slightly analogous roster to look at.

Actually, even that team went no more than 8 deep really. We had just the one backup on the wing (Dawkins) and the two backup bigs (the Plumlees). And even then, we only really played 4 bigs because those bigs had real trouble staying out of foul trouble. When Thomas and Zoubek were able to stay on the floor, our rotation looked more like a 6.5 man rotation. For example, in the title game, Thomas (35) and Zoubek (31) played over 80% of the big man minutes, with Mason getting 9 minutes and Miles getting just 3. So, basically it was a six-man rotation but with Dawkins playing another 5 minutes backing up the wings.

[fraggler]

Actually, even that team went no more than 8 deep really. We had just the one backup on the wing (Dawkins) and the two backup bigs (the Plumlees). And even then, we only really played 4 bigs because those bigs had real trouble staying out of foul trouble. When Thomas and Zoubek were able to stay on the floor, our rotation looked more like a 6.5 man rotation. For example, in the title game, Thomas (35) and Zoubek (31) played over 80% of the big man minutes, with Mason getting 9 minutes and Miles getting just 3. So, basically it was a six-man rotation but with Dawkins playing another 5 minutes backing up the wings.

I just looked at the season avg minutes played, giving anyone with double digit minutes a spot in the "rotation." So the actual dependable rotation was wrong, but it still could show how big man minutes can be shared throughout the season. Zoubek and the Plumlees all averaged under 20, with Lance getting 25. I'm sure Singler got some big man minutes like Tatum might. By the end of the season, I am sure some of our bigs will have distinguished themselves and the rotation will be tighter.

[DukeTrinity11]

I hope Chase treats this offseason, the season and the following offseason as a golden opportunity to take advantage of our S&C program and improve his game in all facets.

There's no reason he can't be a Brice Johnson type player by his junior or senior year if he has the hunger and passion to get better.

I'm tired of Duke, UK, KU, etc. fans having to always assume that the top freshman studs are better than their own upperclassmen, especially when it comes to big man.

Is Chase going to put Duke in a position where he's so good that we don't need to go after Ayton, Bamba and Wendell in 2017? I hope he takes this personal and makes it so.

Lets take Grayson as an example: he improved his scoring average and level of play so significantly that there's no way that I would trade having a junior Grayson for having any top high school guard prospect even., probably even freshman Michael Jordan. Allen is going to be that good next year if he returns.

[Kedsy]

I'm sure Singler got some big man minutes like Tatum might.

In 2010 we only had four perimeter players, period. Including Andre Dawkins, who only averaged 12 mpg (and as CDu mentioned, played less in big games toward the end of the year). So Singler played very few big man minutes, almost certainly fewer than Tatum should see next season (assuming we don't somehow lose a plethora of perimeter options between now and then).

[CDu]

In 2010 we only had four perimeter players, period. Including Andre Dawkins, who only averaged 12 mpg (and as CDu mentioned, played less in big games toward the end of the year). So Singler played very few big man minutes, almost certainly fewer than Tatum should see next season (assuming we don't somehow lose a plethora of perimeter options between now and then).

Yeah,cSingler played almost (not quite, but almost) exclusively at SF in 2010. We were so shallw on the perimeter that Ryan Kelly actually got more of his minutes at SF than at PF that year.

Given the talent we will have on the perimeter, I will be fairly surprised if Tatum plays as little PF as Singler did in 2010.

[DukieInBrasil]

I am still totally bewildered that Vrakovic's potential at a red-shirt this year was totally wasted so that he could play 14 meaningless minutes in 5 games. He may have been considered a project player to start with, and he didn't show a whole lot in his 14 minutes, except pretty nice hands and decent instincts in the paint. Withe glaring need for post depth this year, and the long stretch of time when Jeter was not showing anything good, it amazed me that Vrank couldn't get 2 mpg. Maybe he'll redshirt next year if both Amile comes back and Bolden picks Duke. If he doesn't red-shirt and again is the last big off the bench, how will he get more than 14 minutes in game action next year?
It's a mystery to me.

[cato]

I am still totally bewildered that Vrakovic's potential at a red-shirt this year was totally wasted so that he could play 14 meaningless minutes in 5 games. He may have been considered a project player to start with, and he didn't show a whole lot in his 14 minutes, except pretty nice hands and decent instincts in the paint. Withe glaring need for post depth this year, and the long stretch of time when Jeter was not showing anything good, it amazed me that Vrank couldn't get 2 mpg. Maybe he'll redshirt next year if both Amile comes back and Bolden picks Duke. If he doesn't red-shirt and again is the last big off the bench, how will he get more than 14 minutes in game action next year?
It's a mystery to me.

And it happened so early. The only thing I can conclude is that Vrankovic has a plan, and it does not include staying at Duke 5 years. Perhaps he has already decided that, if he can't make the NBA after graduation, he would opt for Europe rather than remaining an amateur for another year.

[CDu]

And it happened so early. The only thing I can conclude is that Vrankovic has a plan, and it does not include staying at Duke 5 years. Perhaps he has already decided that, if he can't make the NBA after graduation, he would opt for Europe rather than remaining an amateur for another year.

Yeah, I have to believe that the option of redshirting was discussed, and Vrankovic chose against it. Whether that means that he, like Pocius, plans to go overseas after four years, I don't know. Whether it means he wants to keep his transfer options open, I don't know. But I am quite sure that the decision for him to play a couple minutes in the first game was not made naively.

[MaxAMillion]

3rd string centers don't get a lot of time at any school. Especially since basketball today is much more perimeter oriented. The only way I can see both Bolden and Jeter getting significant minutes is if there is an injury or they both come in and play in games together. I think Bolden is protection against Jeter not making the needed improvements to get significant minutes next year.

[Saratoga2]

So, will Chase Jeter be more like Brian Zoubek and Casey Sanders, or more like Ryan Kelly and Amile Jefferson? I'd say the historical perspective is inconclusive. But if Chase improves over the summer, as I expect he will, perhaps we really can make a legitimate case for a 9-man rotation in 2016-17.

Or, with Coach K's history, perhaps not.

What are the chances that coach K goes with the platoon system ala Kentucky when they were so loaded? Obviously a lot depends on Bolden and Grayson so it may just be a moot question at this point.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

What are the chances that coach K goes with the platoon system ala Kentucky when they were so loaded? Obviously a lot depends on Bolden and Grayson so it may just be a moot question at this point.

Somewhere close to but not quite zero percent?

[flyingdutchdevil]

Somewhere close to but not quite zero percent?

8 player rotation. Maybe 8.5 player rotation, if lucky.

Let's assume that Bolden comes, Allen stays, Ingram leaves, and no one else leaves. Bold assumption, I know. Here is my take:

Who's definitely in the rotation (also known as players with common last names)
-Allen
-Jones
-Jefferson
-Kennard
-Thornton
-Tatum (0.5 Channing and 0.5 Jayson)
-Giles

Who's probably not in the rotation (also known as players with awesome last names)
-Delaurier
-Vrankovic
-Obi
-Robinson

Who's looking into the rotation
-Jackson
-Bolden

Who's looking out of the rotation
-Jeter

[hackysack123]

assuming everyone comes back right? Any word on Grayson leaving for the NBA?

[tbyers11]

8 player rotation. Maybe 8.5 player rotation, if lucky.

Let's assume that Bolden comes, Allen stays, Ingram leaves, and no one else leaves. Bold assumption, I know. Here is my take:

Who's definitely in the rotation (also known as players with common last names)
-Allen
-Jones
-Jefferson
-Kennard
-Thornton
-Tatum (0.5 Channing and 0.5 Jayson)
-Giles

Who's probably not in the rotation (also known as players with awesome last names)
-Delaurier
-Vrankovic
-Obi
-Robinson

Who's looking into the rotation
-Jackson
-Bolden

Who's looking out of the rotation
-Jeter

You forgot Jack White. Bolden can't come unless we remove another scholarship player (beyond Ingram) from the equation

[fraggler]

8 player rotation. Maybe 8.5 player rotation, if lucky.

Let's assume that Bolden comes, Allen stays, Ingram leaves, and no one else leaves. Bold assumption, I know. Here is my take:

Who's definitely in the rotation (also known as players with common last names)
-Allen
-Jones
-Jefferson
-Kennard
-Thornton
-Tatum (0.5 Channing and 0.5 Jayson)
-Giles

Who's probably not in the rotation (also known as players with awesome last names)
-Delaurier
-Vrankovic
-Obi
-Robinson

Who's looking into the rotation
-Jackson
-Bolden

Who's looking out of the rotation
-Jeter

I think you are sleeping on Jeter too much. He really started to come on late and I think a summer of workouts and practice will do wonders for him. As for everyone else, don't forget that not every McDonald's AA is ready for primetime right away (Grayson, Jeter). And some are destined to be role players (albeit high level role players) for their whole careers (Matt, Amile, Marshall). As impressive as the incoming class is, I don't think we should pencil them into the rotation just yet.

[Troublemaker]

What are the chances that coach K goes with the platoon system ala Kentucky when they were so loaded?

Coach K actually platooned for a few games in 2013-14, the season before Kentucky did it. Even though the results were good, Coach made it clear in the postgame press conferences that it was only a temporary maneuver and that he preferred a shorter rotation.

So the chances are zero unless he's had a philosophical change since then.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

assuming everyone comes back right? Any word on Grayson leaving for the NBA?

Coach K could have 15 McD's on his roster and still would go 7 or 8 deep come February.

[freshmanjs]

8 player rotation. Maybe 8.5 player rotation, if lucky.

Let's assume that Bolden comes, Allen stays, Ingram leaves, and no one else leaves. Bold assumption, I know. Here is my take:

Who's definitely in the rotation (also known as players with common last names)
-Allen
-Jones
-Jefferson
-Kennard
-Thornton
-Tatum (0.5 Channing and 0.5 Jayson)
-Giles

Who's probably not in the rotation (also known as players with awesome last names)
-Delaurier
-Vrankovic
-Obi
-Robinson

Who's looking into the rotation
-Jackson
-Bolden

Who's looking out of the rotation
-Jeter


Jackson is a lock to start.

[MCFinARL]

Getting back to what players should work on over the off season, I'd like to see all our returning frosh work on "next play." Admittedly hard to do this when not playing actual games, but all seemed a bit flustered at times--Derryck and Chase especially, but Luke as well--after missing a shot, committing a foul, or turning the ball over. Have to work on instantly getting back into the flow of the play.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I think you are sleeping on Jeter too much. He really started to come on late and I think a summer of workouts and practice will do wonders for him. As for everyone else, don't forget that not every McDonald's AA is ready for primetime right away (Grayson, Jeter). And some are destined to be role players (albeit high level role players) for their whole careers (Matt, Amile, Marshall). As impressive as the incoming class is, I don't think we should pencil them into the rotation just yet.

You can absolutely, 100% pencil in Tatum and Giles to not only be in the rotation, but start (if Giles is healthy). These kids are 2 of the top 3 recruits in the country, and this is seem as one of the strong classes ever.

I don't see one scenario where Giles and Tatum don't start (again, assuming health).

Jackson and Bolden aren't 100% set to be part of the rotation, which is why I said they are on the inside looking out.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Jackson is a lock to start.

I beg to differ. I don't even think Jackson is a lock to be part of the rotation.

Assuming Tatum at the 3, Jefferson at the 4, and Giles at the 5, that gives us two open spots in the backcourt. If Grayson comes back, he's starting. I don't see it any other way. That last spot could be reserved for our only PG (Thornton). Or, if K wants leadership, then Jones. Or if K wants shooting, Kennard. Or if K wants Grayson 2.0, Jackson.

I think that Kennard starts again, because his ability to spread the floor allows Giles and Jefferson to do their thing down low.

[Kedsy]

I beg to differ. I don't even think Jackson is a lock to be part of the rotation.

I agree Frank is not a lock to start, but Coach K's backcourt rotation has often gone 5 deep. In fact it has always gone that deep with as much perimeter talent as we're projected to have next season. If all of Derryck, Grayson, Luke, and Matt return, that leaves one perimeter rotation spot open. But in that case, we wouldn't have room for Marques Bolden, so my guess is Jayson would move into the frontcourt rotation and Frank would slide into the backcourt rotation. If we lose one (or two) of the returning perimeter players, then there's plenty of room in the perimeter rotation for both Frank and Jayson (who would probably play some but not so much in the frontcourt if Marques chooses Duke).

Either way, I think Frank Jackson is a pretty good bet to be part of the rotation.

[Vincetaylor]

I agree Frank is not a lock to start, but Coach K's backcourt rotation has often gone 5 deep. In fact it has always gone that deep with as much perimeter talent as we're projected to have next season. If all of Derryck, Grayson, Luke, and Matt return, that leaves one perimeter rotation spot open. But in that case, we wouldn't have room for Marques Bolden, so my guess is Jayson would move into the frontcourt rotation and Frank would slide into the backcourt rotation. If we lose one (or two) of the returning perimeter players, then there's plenty of room in the perimeter rotation for both Frank and Jayson (who would probably play some but not so much in the frontcourt if Marques chooses Duke).

Either way, I think Frank Jackson is a pretty good bet to be part of the rotation.

I can't believe what I am reading from everyone. Frank Jackson will absolutely start next year. He is so good that we will be lucky to have him more than one year. You watch the guy for a few minutes and can tell he has star written all over him.

[brlftz]

I can't believe what I am reading from everyone. Frank Jackson will absolutely start next year. He is so good that we will be lucky to have him more than one year. You watch the guy for a few minutes and can tell he has star written all over him.

okay, so who doesn't start between Grayson and Matt? assuming Giles, Jefferson, and Tatum are all locks to start, and Allen comes back, who sits on the bench at the start of games? A third team All American guy who led us in scoring and assists, or a senior captain who is our best defender?

[Troublemaker]

okay, so who doesn't start between Grayson and Matt? assuming Giles, Jefferson, and Tatum are all locks to start, and Allen comes back, who sits on the bench at the start of games? A third team All American guy who led us in scoring and assists, or a senior captain who is our best defender?

Matt. Grayson is a lock.

No matter who starts, we're going to have over-qualified 6th and 7th men due to an incredible collection of perimeter talent (and talent overall.) For example, I think it's sort of absurd that if Kennard finds his 3-pt shot (which I think he will), he'll be coming off the bench. But that seems very possible if not likely under the scenario discussed.

Under the scenario discussed, Allen-Tatum-Giles-Jefferson are probably locks to start. The 5th starter will either be Jackson, Jones, or Kennard, and Duke fans will have lots of disagreement on who is tabbed, I imagine.

[freshmanjs]

I beg to differ. I don't even think Jackson is a lock to be part of the rotation.

Assuming Tatum at the 3, Jefferson at the 4, and Giles at the 5, that gives us two open spots in the backcourt. If Grayson comes back, he's starting. I don't see it any other way. That last spot could be reserved for our only PG (Thornton). Or, if K wants leadership, then Jones. Or if K wants shooting, Kennard. Or if K wants Grayson 2.0, Jackson.

I think that Kennard starts again, because his ability to spread the floor allows Giles and Jefferson to do their thing down low.

When someone on twitter said to pencil Jackson into the starting lineup...

Laura Keeley ‏@laurakeeley
Use a pen

[brlftz]

No matter who starts, we're going to have over-qualified 6th and 7th men due to an incredible collection of perimeter talent (and talent overall.) For example, I think it's sort of absurd that if Kennard finds his 3-pt shot (which I think he will), he'll be coming off the bench. But that seems very possible if not likely under the scenario discussed.

Under the scenario discussed, Allen-Tatum-Giles-Jefferson are probably locks to start. The 5th starter will either be Jackson, Jones, or Kennard, and Duke fans will have lots of disagreement on who is tabbed, I imagine.

definitely agree with the quoted. if I look at the locks, though, I expect a healthy Matt offers more synergy, and it seems like he's forever exceeding our expectations for playing time. Kennard and Jackson off the bench allow us to keep the offensive pressure on even with our starters resting.

[GGLC]

I think a lot of this is premature until we find out what our roster will look like next year.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I think a lot of this is premature until we find out what our roster will look like next year.

Welcome to DBR!

[GGLC]

Welcome to DBR!

Yes, but more so than usual.

[Kedsy]

When someone on twitter said to pencil Jackson into the starting lineup...

Laura Keeley ‏@laurakeeley
Use a pen

This says something. Or several things, actually.

[GGLC]

This says something. Or several things, actually.

And one of those things I find very depressing.

[devildeac]

This says something. Or several things, actually.


And one of those things I find very depressing.

One of the rules of Fight Club, err, (possible) transfers is that you can't talk about it/them :o .

[jv001]

At this point in time, we don't know what the roster will look like come October practices. Someone might transfer, we might get another recruit(Bolden) or an injury, God forbid. When looking at projected starting lineups and rotations, we need to remember that Coach K thinks Defense first and offense 2nd and he's been known to sit a veteran player to get a young defensive player into the starting lineup. We don't know who the point guard will be. Will it be Thornton who I think was the best on the ball defender on the team this year. Sorry, Matt. Will Harry be at 100%, will Amile be at 100% and will Grayson head off into the NBA? It's fun to speculate on these things, but we should not be surprised when thing don't go as we think. Just look at the minutes thread for this season. Amile's injury really messed that up. As for my projection: If healthy, this is my starting five: Amile, Harry, Tatum, Grayson and Jackson. 6th man= Luke, 7th man= Matt, 8th man= Chase. You ask where is Bolden and Thornton. Well, I'll believe we have Bolden when he announces for Duke. As for Thornton, that's another projection in it's self. :cool:GoDuke!

[Newton_14]

I beg to differ. I don't even think Jackson is a lock to be part of the rotation.

Assuming Tatum at the 3, Jefferson at the 4, and Giles at the 5, that gives us two open spots in the backcourt. If Grayson comes back, he's starting. I don't see it any other way. That last spot could be reserved for our only PG (Thornton). Or, if K wants leadership, then Jones. Or if K wants shooting, Kennard. Or if K wants Grayson 2.0, Jackson.

I think that Kennard starts again, because his ability to spread the floor allows Giles and Jefferson to do their thing down low.

After what I saw last night (and I rarely learn anything from any All Star Game besides Nike Hoop Summit) I think Bolden would start at center on Day 1. That kid is a beast. While I don't feel Jackson is a lock to start, I do feel he is a lock to be in the main rotation game in and game out.

[Newton_14]

I can't believe what I am reading from everyone. Frank Jackson will absolutely start next year. He is so good that we will be lucky to have him more than one year. You watch the guy for a few minutes and can tell he has star written all over him.

He's going to have to develop PG skills to play in the NBA. He's 6'3. That's awful short for a NBA 2G/WG. Which is why I don't see him as a one and done.

College Star? I think that most likely, yes.

[cato]

I can't believe what I am reading from everyone. Frank Jackson will absolutely start next year. He is so good that we will be lucky to have him more than one year. You watch the guy for a few minutes and can tell he has star written all over him.

Corey Maggette didn't start. Jason Williams was not supposed to start.

Matt Jones started for a National Championship team. Grayson Allen is an All American.

Jackson has not yet arrived on campus. He is not a lock to start.

[BD80]

One of the rules of Fight Club, err, (possible) transfers is that you can't talk about it/them :o .

How much does that elephant in the corner weigh?

[kAzE]

Is it about time to start the obligatory starting lineup debate yet? I'm going to be optimistic and assume Grayson stays and we get Bolden.

It was an all star game, but it's hard not to come away impressed by Marques Bolden. He looks like he would start for 99% of D-1 teams as a freshman. But which big man comes off the bench? I doubt it's Amile. Harry? Only if his knee isn't at full strength by the time the season starts. Bolden probably still comes off the bench, but plays significant minutes, comparable to Amile and Harry.

Jackson seems like a carbon copy of Grayson Allen on paper: a hyper-athletic 2-guard who is fearless going to the rim and physically superior to his peers with a deadly shooting stroke off the catch, but not much of a point guard (yet). If Grayson and Frank each handle 1/2 the point guard duties, then I could see Jackson becoming the other starting guard. Then again, we have such a ridiculous amount of scoring in the starting lineup already, that it might actually make more sense for Frank to come off the bench and be the #1 or #2 option while the "-aysons" (Grayson and Jayson) are resting.

It'll be a very deep team with tons of lineup options that will be effective. We will be able to play many different styles. We can run and gun with the Cheats or slow it down with the Cavaliers. We should be able to zone, press (I expect a lot of full court defense with our depth), and play lock down M2M. Should be an amazing year.

[devildeac]

How much does that elephant in the corner weigh?

This one?

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?37686-the-2000-lb-elephant-in-the-room

[jv001]

Is it about time to start the obligatory starting lineup debate yet? I'm going to be optimistic and assume Grayson stays and we get Bolden.

It was an all star game, but it's hard not to come away impressed by Marques Bolden. He looks like he would start for 99% of D-1 teams as a freshman. But which big man comes off the bench? I doubt it's Amile. Harry? Only if his knee isn't at full strength by the time the season starts. Bolden probably still comes off the bench, but plays significant minutes, comparable to Amile and Harry.

Jackson seems like a carbon copy of Grayson Allen on paper: a hyper-athletic 2-guard who is fearless going to the rim and physically superior to his peers with a deadly shooting stroke off the catch, but not much of a point guard (yet). If Grayson and Frank each handle 1/2 the point guard duties, then I could see Jackson becoming the other starting guard. Then again, we have such a ridiculous amount of scoring in the starting lineup already, that it might actually make more sense for Frank to come off the bench and be the #1 or #2 option while the "-aysons" (Grayson and Jayson) are resting.

It'll be a very deep team with tons of lineup options that will be effective. We will be able to play many different styles. We can run and gun with the Cheats or slow it down with the Cavaliers. We should be able to zone, press (I expect a lot of full court defense with our depth), and play lock down M2M. Should be an amazing year.

I really like your post, but we've been saying this for years (bolded). I will be satisfied with a lock down half court defense that can rebound. GoDuke!

[Vincetaylor]

Corey Maggette didn't start. Jason Williams was not supposed to start.

Matt Jones started for a National Championship team. Grayson Allen is an All American.

Jackson has not yet arrived on campus. He is not a lock to start.

Matt Jones won't be starting over him unless he has no clue how to play defense. Corey Maggette didn't start because Battier and Carrawell were ahead of him.

It'll be Grayson and Jackson in the back court if Grayson comes back. He'll start for the same reason Jason started. Too talented not to.

[CDu]

I really like your post, but we've been saying this for years (bolded). I will be satisfied with a lock down half court defense that can rebound. GoDuke!

Yeah, as much as I enjoyed the old days of the full-court press, I can't imagine we will return to those days. There are just more ballhandlers around these days which makes the press less effective. And given roster turnover and the restrictions on practice time, I think the staff has decided to focus more on half-court defense.

[freshmanjs]

Yeah, as much as I enjoyed the old days of the full-court press, I can't imagine we will return to those days. There are just more ballhandlers around these days which makes the press less effective. And given roster turnover and the restrictions on practice time, I think the staff has decided to focus more on half-court defense.

I'm not sure. Full court presses were consistently very effective for teams trying to come back over the last 2 weekends (including Yale and Syracuse)

[kAzE]

Yeah, as much as I enjoyed the old days of the full-court press, I can't imagine we will return to those days. There are just more ballhandlers around these days which makes the press less effective. And given roster turnover and the restrictions on practice time, I think the staff has decided to focus more on half-court defense.

Maybe my post was a bit misleading, I didn't mean full on press every possession, I just meant picking up full court to shorten the shot clock. That's something I think we should definitely experiment with.

[duke09hms]

At this point in time, we don't know what the roster will look like come October practices. Someone might transfer, we might get another recruit(Bolden) or an injury, God forbid. When looking at projected starting lineups and rotations, we need to remember that Coach K thinks Defense first and offense 2nd and he's been known to sit a veteran player to get a young defensive player into the starting lineup. We don't know who the point guard will be. Will it be Thornton who I think was the best on the ball defender on the team this year. Sorry, Matt. Will Harry be at 100%, will Amile be at 100% and will Grayson head off into the NBA? It's fun to speculate on these things, but we should not be surprised when thing don't go as we think. Just look at the minutes thread for this season. Amile's injury really messed that up. As for my projection: If healthy, this is my starting five: Amile, Harry, Tatum, Grayson and Jackson. 6th man= Luke, 7th man= Matt, 8th man= Chase. You ask where is Bolden and Thornton. Well, I'll believe we have Bolden when he announces for Duke. As for Thornton, that's another projection in it's self. :cool:GoDuke!

I dunno, I think this used to be true, but of late our offense has been consistently elite while our defense has fluctuated widely between:

2011: strong
2012: terrible
2013: strong then average
2014: terrible
2015: average then strong
2016: terrible

[CDu]

I'm not sure. Full court presses were consistently very effective for teams trying to come back over the last 2 weekends (including Yale and Syracuse)

I don't know that the full-court pressure had much to do with our struggles against Yale. I think we just played tentatively/young. It definitely helped Syracuse for that 10-minute run in the second half, in large part because UVa lacked ballhandlers and decisionmakers. And one of their two good ballhandlers was making bad decisions.

There are certainly "pressable" tesms though. Notre Dame comes to mind. NC State too. But many teams these days have two or more ballhandlers on the floor, and a fair number have a big who can handle it. That takes a lot of teeth out of the press.

[luvdahops]

Maybe my post was a bit misleading, I didn't mean full on press every possession, I just meant picking up full court to shorten the shot clock. That's something I think we should definitely experiment with.

I think it is good to have a full court press in the mix, and to be proficient at it. But I can't imagine it being anything more than a situational tactic, even with the depth we will have next year. To echo CDu, there are just too many teams with multiple ball handlers in modern CBB. As the father of a 9 year old, I can tell you that position less basketball is being taught at all levels these days.

[cato]

Matt Jones won't be starting over him unless he has no clue how to play defense. Corey Maggette didn't start because Battier and Carrawell were ahead of him

You just made my point.

Could he start? Sure. But there will be competition.

Having watched a few seasons of Duke Bball, I've learned not to bench upperclassmen who started in the national championship game, and have clearly earned K's trust, until K actually benches them.

[superdave]

One of the rules of Fight Club, err, (possible) transfers is that you can't talk about it/them :o .

This sucks. Our team peaked this season with said guy in the starting lineup playing great defense. That stretch included wins over two #1 seeds. Poop.

[kAzE]

One of the rules of Fight Club, err, (possible) transfers is that you can't talk about it/them :o .

6201

This needs to just be the default response to the topic-which-must-not-be-discussed. It's way too funny to not re-post.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I dunno, I think this used to be true, but of late our offense has been consistently elite while our defense has fluctuated widely between:

2011: strong
2012: terrible
2013: strong then average
2014: terrible
2015: average then strong
2016: terrible

I like this trend for next year.

Between Amile, Matt Jones, (Thornton), we have a really good core of above-average defenders.

[luvdahops]

I like this trend for next year.

Between Amile, Matt Jones, (Thornton), we have a really good core of above-average defenders.

I think Grayson also has the potential to be an above average defender, especially if he doesn't have to worry about playing 38-40 mpg and having to carry the team offensively for long stretches.

[Newton_14]

I think Grayson also has the potential to be an above average defender, especially if he doesn't have to worry about playing 38-40 mpg and having to carry the team offensively for long stretches.
Totally agree with this. Grayson is already a good defender and like you say, has the potential to get a lot better. Totally agree that less minutes and less burden of having to score every time will greatly help his defense as well.

[Ultrarunner]

I think you are sleeping on Jeter too much. He really started to come on late and I think a summer of workouts and practice will do wonders for him. As for everyone else, don't forget that not every McDonald's AA is ready for primetime right away (Grayson, Jeter). And some are destined to be role players (albeit high level role players) for their whole careers (Matt, Amile, Marshall). As impressive as the incoming class is, I don't think we should pencil them into the rotation just yet.

I think Jeter's progress at the end of the season should put him in the running for significant (but not starter) minutes. He possesses decent physical tools. A year of solid practice on skills, especially defensive skills such as positioning, staying vertical, avoiding the dreaded reaching, will do wonders. Another big factor is his youth. He's nearly a year younger than a lot of his freshman peers. A year of physical maturity plus a steady diet of weights will make a difference in his ability to hold position down low.

[MCFinARL]

At this point in time, we don't know what the roster will look like come October practices. Someone might transfer, we might get another recruit(Bolden) or an injury, God forbid. When looking at projected starting lineups and rotations, we need to remember that Coach K thinks Defense first and offense 2nd

Traditionally, yes, this is true--but is it really true any more? For the last few years, when Duke has had more players leaving early, it seems defensive skills haven't been as certain to get players on the court over offense--except when they come in the form of more experienced players (like Matt), rather than less experienced. CAVEAT: This is just an off the cuff impression; I admit I haven't got hard evidence.


This one?

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?37686-the-2000-lb-elephant-in-the-room

At this point I think this particular elephant weighs less than an ounce, alas...

[Rich]

Traditionally, yes, this is true--but is it really true any more? For the last few years, when Duke has had more players leaving early, it seems defensive skills haven't been as certain to get players on the court over offense--except when they come in the form of more experienced players (like Matt), rather than less experienced. CAVEAT: This is just an off the cuff impression; I admit I haven't got hard evidence.

I agree. Coach K's decision to use the zone more and more over his old philosphy of man-to-man or bust may not be hard evidence, but I think it's a good indicator.

[jv001]

Traditionally, yes, this is true--but is it really true any more? For the last few years, when Duke has had more players leaving early, it seems defensive skills haven't been as certain to get players on the court over offense--except when they come in the form of more experienced players (like Matt), rather than less experienced. CAVEAT: This is just an off the cuff impression; I admit I haven't got hard evidence.


The OADs have changed Coach K's philosophy on playing the best defenders for sure, but that's because most of the OADs are very good offensive players. Jah, T. Jones, and Parker come to mind. I'm sure there are more but I can't think of who they are right now. Then we have Matt Jones and Tyler Thornton who got major minutes because of their defense. Looking at next years team, I see Matt, Grayson, Amile and Thornton as good defenders. We don't know how good Tatum, Giles, Jackson and the other freshmen are on defense. But I'm betting if those three can play good man2man defense, they get major minutes. GoDuke!

[flyingdutchdevil]

The OADs have changed Coach K's philosophy on playing the best defenders for sure, but that's because most of the OADs are very good offensive players. Jah, T. Jones, and Parker come to mind. I'm sure there are more but I can't think of who they are right now. Then we have Matt Jones and Tyler Thornton who got major minutes because of their defense. Looking at next years team, I see Matt, Grayson, Amile and Thornton as good defenders. We don't know how good Tatum, Giles, Jackson and the other freshmen are on defense. But I'm betting if those three can play good man2man defense, they get major minutes. GoDuke!

Where does this perception come from that Grayson is a good defender? I think he tries very hard on the defensive end, but I don't particularly think he's very good at it. Against faster players (like Oregon), he got blown by a lot. He didn't box out a lot throughout the year (although every player is crazy guilty of this). Grayson didn't play great help defense. Grayson has the tools, but he still has a lot to learn.

Also, given that we consider Thornton, and Jones to be above-average and Ingram, Allen, and MP3 to be at least serviceable (and some consider them above-average) on defense, how is it that our defense was so bad this year? I'll absolutely agree that the parts is greater than the sum, but is it the lack of understanding of team defense? And if that's the case, how will we be better on D next year with at least 3 freshman playing quality minutes (and potentially 4 if Bolden comes on board)?

[Kedsy]

We don't know how good Tatum, Giles, Jackson and the other freshmen are on defense. But I'm betting if those three can play good man2man defense, they get major minutes.

I'm betting those three get major minutes whether they can play good man-to-man defense or not.

[whereinthehellami]

Health is going to play a huge role. Matt Jones brings a lot to the table when he is healthy, 100% healthy. He has that old man vibe to him. Will Jefferson and Giles be 100% healthy? Giles has an NBA future to think about and factor into his health/playing time.

For all those who say it is too early to speculate on lineups, you guys are crazy. It is never too early. I've been at it for months. And yes i enjoyed this past season immensely, see my popular Scenario 12 thread (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?36629-Scenario-12-Mens-Basketball&highlight=Scenario).

So, at this point, for next year I think we see;

Kennard - I think he will be more consistent. Kid is a winner and is easy to play with.
Jones - Senior, leader, plays D, and hits 3's. Doesn't need the ball on O to be effective. key point with the team next year. Has to be 100% healthy though or Jackson starts here instead.
Tatum - Will touch the ball the most on O and be a matchup nightmare with his size (long 6-8)and skills at SF.
Giles - I think we will see him struggle a little with the size and strength of the average ACC frontcourt players. As the season goes on I think we will see an increase of plays where he shows the explosive jumping ability and good hands that have him rated as a number 1 recruit. I see lots of dunks and blocks at the rim.
Jefferson - Senior, leader, scrappy, and effective. Another guy who doesn't need the ball on O to be effective.

All 5 players can handle the ball if needed and will provide matchup problems.

Jackson - First one off the bench. Will start some games depending on matchups/performance.
Jeter - Will have settled down enough to provide 10-15 minutes of rest for frontcourt starters. I think he needs another year to become a player that can be thought of as a spot starter.

[jv001]

I'm betting those three get major minutes whether they can play good man-to-man defense or not.

Yeh, I guess you're right that they get major minutes. That's if Giles is close to 100% and Jackson is good as most of us think he is. GoDuke!

[jv001]

Health is going to play a huge role. Matt Jones brings a lot to the table when he is healthy, 100% healthy. He has that old man vibe to him. Will Jefferson and Giles be 100% healthy? Giles has an NBA future to think about and factor into his health/playing time.

For all those who say it is too early to speculate on lineups, you guys are crazy. It is never too early. I've been at it for months. And yes i enjoyed this past season immensely, see my popular Scenario 12 thread (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?36629-Scenario-12-Mens-Basketball&highlight=Scenario).

So, at this point, for next year I think we see;

Kennard - I think he will be more consistent. Kid is a winner and is easy to play with.
Jones - Senior, leader, plays D, and hits 3's. Doesn't need the ball on O to be effective. key point with the team next year. Has to be 100% healthy though or Jackson starts here instead.
Tatum - Will touch the ball the most on O and be a matchup nightmare with his size (long 6-8)and skills at SF.
Giles - I think we will see him struggle a little with the size and strength of the average ACC frontcourt players. As the season goes on I think we will see an increase of plays where he shows the explosive jumping ability and good hands that have him rated as a number 1 recruit. I see lots of dunks and blocks at the rim.
Jefferson - Senior, leader, scrappy, and effective. Another guy who doesn't need the ball on O to be effective.

All 5 players can handle the ball if needed and will provide matchup problems.

Jackson - First one off the bench. Will start some games depending on matchups/performance.
Jeter - Will have settled down enough to provide 10-15 minutes of rest for frontcourt starters. I think he needs another year to become a player that can be thought of as a spot starter.

Good observations. However if we get Bolden, I think Jeter's minutes will be around 5-8 mpg. However if he really improves over the summer that can change. GoDuke!

[Kedsy]

So, at this point, for next year I think we see;

What do you see if we also have Allen and Bolden?

[MCFinARL]

I'm betting those three get major minutes whether they can play good man-to-man defense or not.

Yes, you beat me to this reply. When recruiting focuses so heavily on offensive stars, the logical result is that playing good defense will have a reduced role in allocation of minutes, at least for those players.

[Troublemaker]

Traditionally, yes, this is true--but is it really true any more? For the last few years, when Duke has had more players leaving early, it seems defensive skills haven't been as certain to get players on the court over offense--except when they come in the form of more experienced players (like Matt), rather than less experienced.

And, I suspect we've often had good defenders sit because of their poor offense. Matt, his freshman year, was already a good defender but could not shoot so he sat. I think Elliot Williams and Mike Gbinije sat more for their offense than their defense, which I suspect was solid. I think for Coach K, you need to be able to hit an open shot and be able to participate in team ball movement to play.

[Newton_14]

Where does this perception come from that Grayson is a good defender? I think he tries very hard on the defensive end, but I don't particularly think he's very good at it. Against faster players (like Oregon), he got blown by a lot. He didn't box out a lot throughout the year (although every player is crazy guilty of this). Grayson didn't play great help defense. Grayson has the tools, but he still has a lot to learn.

Also, given that we consider Thornton, and Jones to be above-average and Ingram, Allen, and MP3 to be at least serviceable (and some consider them above-average) on defense, how is it that our defense was so bad this year? I'll absolutely agree that the parts is greater than the sum, but is it the lack of understanding of team defense? And if that's the case, how will we be better on D next year with at least 3 freshman playing quality minutes (and potentially 4 if Bolden comes on board)?

1. I am in the camp that Grayson is a very good defender.
2. Our defense was bad because we were very poor at stopping points in the paint and at the rim. A large part of this was having to play Ingram at the 4 after Amile's injury, which put us smaller at the 4(PF) and at the 3(SF) than we wanted to be and could have been. That also led to the terrible rebounding for the exact same reasons. If Amile is at the 4 all year, Brandon is at the 3, and our interior defense, and defensive rebounding is much better. We were starting to see the defense coming on right when Amile went down.

His injury alone wrecked the season. Now, before I get reported to K for blasphemy, we had a terrific season we should be proud of once all was said and done. And I am extremely proud of how they played and what they accomplished. If we have Amile, the Bar is raised, and we are a strong Final Four Contender and much better defensive team.

I said this earlier, but will restate, I think Amile's injury had a significant impact on Jeter's development too. It meant Jeter subbing in for MP3 and being the only big on the floor, with tons of pressure on him. If Amile is there, then he is on the floor with Chase, and Chase plays with far less pressure on him. Looking at Chase and how things transpired, I feel he would have played much better with Amile, and we would have had a strong 8 man rotation. The pressure and responsibility on Chase without Amile on the floor with him, and being the only big on the floor having a ton of responsibility, was just too great and hurt his development. I firmly believe that.


Just my two cents...

[dyedwab]

1. I am in the camp that Grayson is a very good defender.
2. Our defense was bad because we were very poor at stopping points in the paint and at the rim. A large part of this was having to play Ingram at the 4 after Amile's injury, which put us smaller at the 4(PF) and at the 3(SF) than we wanted to be and could have been. That also led to the terrible rebounding for the exact same reasons. If Amile is at the 4 all year, Brandon is at the 3, and our interior defense, and defensive rebounding is much better. We were starting to see the defense coming on right when Amile went down.

His injury alone wrecked the season. Now, before I get reported to K for blasphemy, we had a terrific season we should be proud of once all was said and done. And I am extremely proud of how they played and what they accomplished. If we have Amile, the Bar is raised, and we are a strong Final Four Contender and much better defensive team.

I said this earlier, but will restate, I think Amile's injury had a significant impact on Jeter's development too. It meant Jeter subbing in for MP3 and being the only big on the floor, with tons of pressure on him. If Amile is there, then he is on the floor with Chase, and Chase plays with far less pressure on him. Looking at Chase and how things transpired, I feel he would have played much better with Amile, and we would have had a strong 8 man rotation. The pressure and responsibility on Chase without Amile on the floor with him, and being the only big on the floor having a ton of responsibility, was just too great and hurt his development. I firmly believe that.


Just my two cents...

I could not agree more strongly with this. Before Amile got hurt, I thought the most important part of our development this season was Brandon figuring out exactly how good he could be offensively and asserting himself. And everyone else would have developed differently.

[ncexnyc]

1. I am in the camp that Grayson is a very good defender.
2. Our defense was bad because we were very poor at stopping points in the paint and at the rim. A large part of this was having to play Ingram at the 4 after Amile's injury, which put us smaller at the 4(PF) and at the 3(SF) than we wanted to be and could have been. That also led to the terrible rebounding for the exact same reasons. If Amile is at the 4 all year, Brandon is at the 3, and our interior defense, and defensive rebounding is much better. We were starting to see the defense coming on right when Amile went down.

His injury alone wrecked the season. Now, before I get reported to K for blasphemy, we had a terrific season we should be proud of once all was said and done. And I am extremely proud of how they played and what they accomplished. If we have Amile, the Bar is raised, and we are a strong Final Four Contender and much better defensive team.

I said this earlier, but will restate, I think Amile's injury had a significant impact on Jeter's development too. It meant Jeter subbing in for MP3 and being the only big on the floor, with tons of pressure on him. If Amile is there, then he is on the floor with Chase, and Chase plays with far less pressure on him. Looking at Chase and how things transpired, I feel he would have played much better with Amile, and we would have had a strong 8 man rotation. The pressure and responsibility on Chase without Amile on the floor with him, and being the only big on the floor having a ton of responsibility, was just too great and hurt his development. I firmly believe that.


Just my two cents...

This all sounds good, but all season long whenever someone discussed Amile's injury I thought about Newton's Third Law.

Let's remember Brandon took awhile to get going. MP3 was, well MP3. With the injury to Amile, both of those players were thrown into the fire and had to take the extra minutes not by choice, but rather desperation. Do they develop like they did and at the rate they did if Amile is healthy? Let's also remember that this threw Luke into the fire as well.

It's always easy to discuss what ifs as we tend to focus more positive outcomes, but rarely do we ever consider the possible negative effects a different scenario would yield.

[Newton_14]

This all sounds good, but all season long whenever someone discussed Amile's injury I thought about Newton's Third Law.

Let's remember Brandon took awhile to get going. MP3 was, well MP3. With the injury to Amile, both of those players were thrown into the fire and had to take the extra minutes not by choice, but rather desperation. Do they develop like they did and at the rate they did if Amile is healthy? Let's also remember that this threw Luke into the fire as well.

It's always easy to discuss what ifs as we tend to focus more positive outcomes, but rarely do we ever consider the possible negative effects a different scenario would yield.

I have no issue with differing opinions. I surely don't believe that if Amile does not get hurt, it negatively impacts the other players. It reduces minutes for sure, so there's that. My specific point is that the injury negatively impacted the development of Chase. I will always believe that. I recognize that yourself and others disagree. No issue with that at all.

[CDu]

1. I am in the camp that Grayson is a very good defender.
2. Our defense was bad because we were very poor at stopping points in the paint and at the rim. A large part of this was having to play Ingram at the 4 after Amile's injury, which put us smaller at the 4(PF) and at the 3(SF) than we wanted to be and could have been. That also led to the terrible rebounding for the exact same reasons. If Amile is at the 4 all year, Brandon is at the 3, and our interior defense, and defensive rebounding is much better. We were starting to see the defense coming on right when Amile went down.

Just my two cents...

I am in the camp with the Dutchman on this one. I think Allen has the tools to be a very good defender, but I'm not sure that those tools have (yet) translated to defensive prowess in games.

I also don't think stopping points in the paint/at the rim was entirely due to Ingram moving to PF. I think it had as much if not more to do with our guys not being very disciplined on the perimeter (especially in off-ball defense), and not having a game-changing shotblocker to bail them out after mistakes. To add to that, they were a bad defensive rebounding team. So even when shots missed, we were frequently scrambling and out of position for the rebound or we simply didn't box out.

However, I completely agree with Newton_14 that the injury to Jefferson had a lot to do with our problems defensively. First, he was our best and most experienced team defender (in terms of minutes played, not years obviously) and one of our two best individual defenders. He was also a very strong rebounder, which would have helped on the defensive glass. He also would have allowed everyone to get more rest. Plumlee could play 20-25 mpg as aggressively as he'd want. Ingram wouldn't have to play 38-40 mpg, and just as importantly he'd play some of those minutes at SF instead of all at PF. That would allow more rest for Allen, who then wouldn't have to play 38-40 mpg.

Basically, that injury (combined with the inability of Jeter and Obi to fill the void) put us in a bad way, forcing us to run our perimeter guys as much as possible. That may or may not have had a cumulative toll on the season, but it probably did have an effect on performance during games (it's hard to play your best every possession for 40 minutes).

[slower]

okay, so who doesn't start between Grayson and Matt?

Seriously?

Matt.

[Saratoga2]

I am of the opinion that the depth of this team will be so significant that coach K will need to adapt his defensive philosophy and his substitution concept to the level of talent on the team. A couple of questions remain about the makeup of the team including Grayson's status, Bolden's recruitment and whether any other significant transfer is identified. Also Amile's and Harry's health. When those are answered, the questions about starters, defensive philosophy, pressing, etc should become a lot easier to answer.

I also think Grayson is a very good defender, very active and good at getting steals. Not being required on the floor for 40 minutes should help him be even more energetic, if that is possible.

My view is that the starters will have to include Grayson and Amile. In addition, the great talent of Harry and Jayson is likely to see them starting, sooner than later. That leaves just one starting position, which is probably PG. You can make a case for Derryck with a year of experience, Frank who is more of a 2 guard with handling skills.

That would leave Matt, Luke, Marguese (sp) and Chase all coming off the bench with Jack also a sleeper and in the mix. That is eleven players and our non starting team could compete and win a lot of games in the ACC. These guys are way too talented to sit for long so that makes me believe coach K will play even more guys in the rotation that others speculate. We shall see if this is an outlier year with 10 guys getting regular minutes.

By the way, one of the announcers in the McDonalds broadcast talked about Harry even though he wasn't playing. He compared him to a combination of Chris Webber and I think I heard Glen Robinson. Pretty high praise for his game.

[slower]

What do you see if we also have Allen and Bolden?
PAIN!!!!!!!!!!

[Kedsy]

That would leave Matt, Luke, Marguese (sp) and Chase all coming off the bench with Jack also a sleeper and in the mix. That is eleven players and our non starting team could compete and win a lot of games in the ACC. These guys are way too talented to sit for long so that makes me believe coach K will play even more guys in the rotation that others speculate. We shall see if this is an outlier year with 10 guys getting regular minutes.

(a) Marques;
(b) You seem to keep bringing up Jack White as a dark horse for minutes, but nobody else seems to think it's a possibility, so realistically your count should be reduced;
(c) You never mention Javin DeLaurier, who appears to be ahead of Jack White on the depth chart -- but he's also unlikely to get regular rotation minutes, absent injury, so I guess it doesn't matter whether he's mentioned or not;
(d) the "elephant" might reduce your count by another one;
(e) It'd be surprising and unlikely, but I think possible, that nine guys get regular minutes. It's almost inconceivable that 10 guys do.

[flyingdutchdevil]

(a) Marques;
(e) It'd be surprising and unlikely, but I think possible, that nine guys get regular minutes. It's almost inconceivable that 10 guys do.

a) "Marguese" is how the Swiss pronounce mergez, a delicious spicy Moroccan sausage
e) Color me shocked with 9 men, even with the elephant:

Definitely going to play: Allen, Jones, Jefferson, Giles, Tatum, Kennard, Thornton, Jackson (upgraded to 'definitely')'
Probably not going to play (would say 'Definitely', but a few posters would have a #$%& fit): Obi, White, Delaurier, Robinson, Vrank
Jury still out: Bolden, Jeter

So, yeah. A lot of things need to happen for a 9 man rotation: no unexpected players leave and either Bolden/Jeter crack the rotation.

[CDu]

I am of the opinion that the depth of this team will be so significant that coach K will need to adapt his defensive philosophy and his substitution concept to the level of talent on the team.

Seemingly every year somebody (often many people) suggest this. But seemingly every year we wind up with a 6-to-8-man rotation. This year, we had the following guys: Thornton, Allen, Kennard, Jones, Ingram, Jefferson, Obi, Jeter, Plumlee. 9-man rotation, right? Well, even if Jefferson hadn't gotten hurt, we were probably going to end up with a 7 or 7.5 man rotation.

I don't see any reason to think that we'll have more than an 8-man or at most an 8.5-man rotation next year. I think we can safely say that, barring any changes in the roster from today, Thornton, Jackson, Allen, Jones, Kennard, Tatum, Jefferson, and Giles will be in the rotation. Jeter probably would stay in a 0.5-man role. DeLaurier probably doesn't play much at all. Vrankovic, Obi, and White probably play even less than DeLaurier.

Any changes in the roster from here on out would either be exits or a "one out, one in" change, and would only redistribute folks within the main rotation. For example, if we got Bolden, that means somebody else had left. If that somebody is someone other than Vrankovic, Jeter, or Obi, then Bolden or Jeter essentially takes that person's place (minutes-wise, not necessarily position-wise) in the rotation.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Seemingly every year somebody (often many people) suggest this. But seemingly every year we wind up with a 6-to-8-man rotation. This year, we had the following guys: Thornton, Allen, Kennard, Jones, Ingram, Jefferson, Obi, Jeter, Plumlee. 9-man rotation, right? Well, even if Jefferson hadn't gotten hurt, we were probably going to end up with a 7 or 7.5 man rotation.

I don't see any reason to think that we'll have more than an 8-man or at most an 8.5-man rotation next year. I think we can safely say that, barring any changes in the roster from today, Thornton, Jackson, Allen, Jones, Kennard, Tatum, Jefferson, and Giles will be in the rotation. Jeter probably would stay in a 0.5-man role. DeLaurier probably doesn't play much at all. Vrankovic, Obi, and White probably play even less than DeLaurier.

Any changes in the roster from here on out would either be exits or a "one out, one in" change, and would only redistribute folks within the main rotation. For example, if we got Bolden, that means somebody else had left. If that somebody is someone other than Vrankovic, Jeter, or Obi, then Bolden or Jeter essentially takes that person's place (minutes-wise, not necessarily position-wise) in the rotation.

If we have nine players getting more than 7 minutes a game in mid-February, I will be shocked. It's not how K coaches.

Having said that, he also "doesn't play zone" and "doesn't recruit one and done players." But it would be a significant departure from protocol if even 8 guys get solid minutes.

[kAzE]

Gun to my head, best guess at the starting lineup:

F: Harry Giles
F: Amile Jefferson
F: Jayson Tatum
G: Matt Jones
G: Grayson Allen

Best mix of talent, experience, offense and defense IMO. Swapping Frank or Luke in for Matt at some point in the season seems possible.

[CDu]

If we have nine players getting more than 7 minutes a game in mid-February, I will be shocked. It's not how K coaches.

Having said that, he also "doesn't play zone" and "doesn't recruit one and done players." But it would be a significant departure from protocol if even 8 guys get solid minutes.

Yeah, the 8.5 man rotation would be a pretty big stretch for Coach K. But that's as far as I can realistically see him stretching the lineup. I think 8 sounds like about the right number for next year, barring unforeseen circumstances.

[GGLC]

Gun to my head, best guess at the starting lineup:

F: Harry Giles
F: Amile Jefferson
F: Jayson Tatum
G: Matt Jones
G: Grayson Allen

Best mix of talent, experience, offense and defense IMO. Swapping Frank or Luke in for Matt at some point in the season seems possible.

There is a glaring, glaring need for a lead guard/ballhandler with this lineup (and I don't think Frank or Luke go much further towards filling that void).

Sigh.

[CDu]

There is a glaring, glaring need for a lead guard/ballhandler with this lineup (and I don't think Frank or Luke go much further towards filling that void).

Sigh.

Maybe. Although I'd point out that there was a glaring lack of a lead guard/ballhandler on this year's team, too, and we were still among the top 10 offenses in the country all year. And that was with what should be even fewer scoring threats than we should have next year. Given that Allen, Kennard, Jackson, and Tatum are all good ballhandlers and capable of creating their own shot, I'm not too overly concerned about the lack of a true PG.

[kAzE]

There is a glaring, glaring need for a lead guard/ballhandler with this lineup (and I don't think Frank or Luke go much further towards filling that void).

Sigh.

What CDu said, and I think you'll be surprised how good of a ball handler Jayson Tatum is. We won't have any more trouble than we had this past year getting the ball into the front court, if that's what you're worried about.

[GGLC]

Maybe. Although I'd point out that there was a glaring lack of a lead guard/ballhandler on this year's team, too, and we were still among the top 10 offenses in the country all year. And that was with what should be even fewer scoring threats than we should have next year. Given that Allen, Kennard, Jackson, and Tatum are all good ballhandlers and capable of creating their own shot, I'm not too overly concerned about the lack of a true PG.

I hope you're right.

And if Allen comes back (fingers crossed), I really hope he spends some time looking at gametape from down the stretch, because his shot selection was often abysmal and ill-conducive to a functioning offense. Creating one's own shot should not mean hurtling into traffic and throwing up an off-balance, low-percentage leaner as he did time and time again.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Maybe. Although I'd point out that there was a glaring lack of a lead guard/ballhandler on this year's team, too, and we were still among the top 10 offenses in the country all year. And that was with what should be even fewer scoring threats than we should have next year. Given that Allen, Kennard, Jackson, and Tatum are all good ballhandlers and capable of creating their own shot, I'm not too overly concerned about the lack of a true PG.

I'd argue that there is a glaring lack of on-the-ball backcourt defense with that line-up. I like that line-up a lot and think it has the best balance, but no one can really guard the PG role that well. Jones is by far the best, but he still gets beaten consistently by faster, smaller guards. With big, strong guards, Jones is excellent.

[GGLC]

What CDu said, and I think you'll be surprised how good of a ball handler Jayson Tatum is. We won't have any more trouble than we had this past year getting the ball into the front court, if that's what you're worried about.

No, that's not what I'm worried about. I'm worried about not having a primary facilitator and distributor to create easy scoring opportunities for his teammates. If we rely on a bunch of iso sets, as we did increasingly towards the end of the season, it's going to be feast or famine on the offensive end. I can only hope that at least K will drill people on moving without the ball and finding the open man if the clear-out forays get stymied.

Efficient shots lead to a better offense.

[Karl Beem]

If we have nine players getting more than 7 minutes a game in mid-February, I will be shocked. It's not how K coaches.

Having said that, he also "doesn't play zone" and "doesn't recruit one and done players." But it would be a significant departure from protocol if even 8 guys get solid minutes.

The '89 team had 9 with > 7. The '90 team had 9 with 2 more nearly 7. The '98 team had 11.

[Kedsy]

The '89 team had 9 with > 7. The '90 team had 9 with 2 more nearly 7. The '98 team had 11.

For '89 and '98, your numbers are only accurate if you don't count DNPs, when they should be counted as 0 minutes for these purposes. Same with your "2 more" in '90. Also, the minute distribution in '98 was somewhat skewed by Elton Brand's injury and by the fact that more than half the games that year (close to 60%, actually) were blowouts with lots of garbage time.

Still, it's true we did go deeper down the bench in the three years you mention (also in 2008 and 2009) than we have in the vast majority of seasons. As I said before, it's possible we do the same next year, though not necessarily probable.

[kAzE]

No, that's not what I'm worried about. I'm worried about not having a primary facilitator and distributor to create easy scoring opportunities for his teammates. If we rely on a bunch of iso sets, as we did increasingly towards the end of the season, it's going to be feast or famine on the offensive end. I can only hope that at least K will drill people on moving without the ball and finding the open man if the clear-out forays get stymied.

Efficient shots lead to a better offense.

True, but I really don't think we're going to have much trouble getting efficient shots even without a primary facilitator. The offensive firepower between Jayson, Grayson, Frank, Luke, and Harry should be more than enough to give us an elite offense, one that will very likely be better than 2016's elite offense. Coach K has always been a master of crafting his offense around his personnel, and next year will be no different.

There should be plenty of isolations for Jayson and Grayson to go 1 on 1, and a lot of pick and rolls/pick and pops with Jayson as both the ball handler and the screener. I think the Allen/Giles P&R is going to be one of our deadliest weapons, along with the Tatum iso. There's way too much talent for this to be anything but one of the highest efficiency teams in the country on offense, even with no true point guard.

[cato]

Seemingly every year somebody (often many people) suggest this. But seemingly every year we wind up with a 6-to-8-man rotation. This year, we had the following guys: Thornton, Allen, Kennard, Jones, Ingram, Jefferson, Obi, Jeter, Plumlee. 9-man rotation, right? Well, even if Jefferson hadn't gotten hurt, we were probably going to end up with a 7 or 7.5 man rotation.

I don't see any reason to think that we'll have more than an 8-man or at most an 8.5-man rotation next year. I think we can safely say that, barring any changes in the roster from today, Thornton, Jackson, Allen, Jones, Kennard, Tatum, Jefferson, and Giles will be in the rotation. Jeter probably would stay in a 0.5-man role. DeLaurier probably doesn't play much at all. Vrankovic, Obi, and White probably play even less than DeLaurier.

Any changes in the roster from here on out would either be exits or a "one out, one in" change, and would only redistribute folks within the main rotation. For example, if we got Bolden, that means somebody else had left. If that somebody is someone other than Vrankovic, Jeter, or Obi, then Bolden or Jeter essentially takes that person's place (minutes-wise, not necessarily position-wise) in the rotation.

2015 proved the point. Grayson Allen could not get consistent minutes until Rasheed was dismissed. The very same Grayson Allen who played so significant a role in the NC game, and returned this year to be an All American.

If K didn't play 9 guys in 2015, he's not going to play 9 ever.

And he shouldn't. An 8 player rotation works. Maybe the identity of the 8 will change throughout the year, but at the end of the day, you have to get the same guys on the floor together consistently.

[JNort]

No, that's not what I'm worried about. I'm worried about not having a primary facilitator and distributor to create easy scoring opportunities for his teammates. If we rely on a bunch of iso sets, as we did increasingly towards the end of the season, it's going to be feast or famine on the offensive end. I can only hope that at least K will drill people on moving without the ball and finding the open man if the clear-out forays get stymied.

Efficient shots lead to a better offense.

No need to worry as long as DT is back next year. He will be a legitimate top 10 pg in the entire NCAA

[slower]

I think the Allen/Giles P&R is going to be one of our deadliest weapons...

Yep. Am I the only person here who thinks that Grayson was our best passer? Yes, including Thornton. He (Grayson) kept MP3 fed with a steady diet of dunks and just seemed to make the best passes of all the guards.

[JNort]

2015 proved the point. Grayson Allen could not get consistent minutes until Rasheed was dismissed. The very same Grayson Allen who played so significant a role in the NC game, and returned this year to be an All American.

If K didn't play 9 guys in 2015, he's not going to play 9 ever.

And he shouldn't. An 8 player rotation works. Maybe the identity of the 8 will change throughout the year, but at the end of the day, you have to get the same guys on the floor together consistently.

Hey we don't like people to make sense around here!!!! Get off my lawn!

Don't forget that this year's team will also be the deepest ever. Also our bench could make another top 25 team.

[jimsumner]

The 2014 team had 10 players play at least 235 minutes in a 35-game season.

The 2010 team had nine guys play at least 227 minutes.

The 1990 team had nine guys play at least 407 minutes.

The 1991 team also had nine players with at least 407 minutes

The 2003 team had nine players with at least 345 minutes.

I could go on.

Defining "being in the rotation" is not an exact science.

But there is reason to believe that Duke's ninth man can and will see the floor should circumstances dictate and the talent base be up to the opportunity.

[GGLC]

Yep. Am I the only person here who thinks that Grayson was our best passer? Yes, including Thornton. He (Grayson) kept MP3 fed with a steady diet of dunks and just seemed to make the best passes of all the guards.

To that, I will repeat what I said earlier about Grayson's distressing tendency in the last handful of games in the season (I think I first really noticed it during the ACC tournament) to drive into traffic and throw up off-balance, low-percentage leaners again and again rather than finding the open man.

[slower]

To that, I will repeat what I said earlier about Grayson's distressing tendency in the last handful of games in the season (I think I first really noticed it during the ACC tournament) to drive into traffic and throw up off-balance, low-percentage leaners again and again rather than finding the open man.

Fair enough, although your contention doesn't negate mine.

[GGLC]

Fair enough, although your contention doesn't negate mine.

It doesn't much matter how good a passer he is if he doesn't pass. :)

(And yes, I know he led the team in assists per game.)

[jv001]

If memory serves me correctly, we had a pretty good point forward named Grant Hill in 1994. That team reached the FF and but for a tough shot going in over Tony Lang, we would have another Championship. This years team had a pretty good player named Brandon Ingram that sort of filled that position. I would love to see Thornton come in and be so much improved that someone not named above gets dropped from the starting lineup. But I have a feeling that won't happen. So, we're down to Grayson, Matt, Luke, Frank to choose from if we go with the so called point guard. But as many have stated, we may not need that type player on offense but I don't think offense will be a problem. Just like this season, offense was not our main problem. It was defense and defensive rebounding. Now on to the debate whether Grayson is/was a good defender. My eyes tell me he was a good defender who led the team in steals. Was he a lock down on the ball defender, no. But neither was Matt who many think is a great defender. But I don't see Matt as a very good on the ball defender either. He's just too slow, even before his injury. But what he does do well is play Coach K's man2man well because he knows the system. That's where lack of experience hurt Chase, Derryck and Luke. Another year in Duke's system should go a long way in them being better defenders. Another thing that no one has mentioned is the length and athletic ability of next years team that will allow us to switch into the 1-3-1 Zone defense that was so effective in the last 2 seasons(with Amile)? I'm not talking about playing mostly zone, but enough to throw teams off their games. I'm really looking forward to seeing next years team. GoDuke!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

The 2014 team had 10 players play at least 235 minutes in a 35-game season.

The 2010 team had nine guys play at least 227 minutes.

The 1990 team had nine guys play at least 407 minutes.

The 1991 team also had nine players with at least 407 minutes

The 2003 team had nine players with at least 345 minutes.

I could go on.

Defining "being in the rotation" is not an exact science.

But there is reason to believe that Duke's ninth man can and will see the floor should circumstances dictate and the talent base be up to the opportunity.

Yes, there are counter examples of many seasons as noted above. But number of minutes and average minutes do not take into account the shrinking bench that happens come crunch time. I would restate that come February and March, K has frequently stopped fiddling with the bench and minutes.

[slower]

It doesn't much matter how good a passer he is if he doesn't pass. :)

(And yes, I know he led the team in assists per game.)

Why, yes. And what a puzzle it is that he led the team in assists if he "didn't pass."

[JNort]

Why, yes. And what a puzzle it is that he led the team in assists if he "didn't pass."

I think the point though is that Grayson needs to pass more considering how much the ball is in his hands.

[GGLC]

Pass more or take better shots, yes.

[Kedsy]

The 2014 team had 10 players play at least 235 minutes in a 35-game season.

The 2010 team had nine guys play at least 227 minutes.

* * *

I could go on.

Defining "being in the rotation" is not an exact science.

I agree it's not an exact science, but some of your examples are clearly stretching any possible definition of "in the rotation." That ninth guy in 2010, Ryan Kelly, played 91 minutes in 28 games after January 1, an average of 3.3 mpg that almost all came during garbage time. He was not in the rotation in any meaningful way.

Similarly, in 2014, Matt Jones had a half-dozen games with double-figure minutes in November and December, and then played good minutes for three consecutive "platoon" games ending January 22, but after that date played 65 minutes in 16 games (4.1 mpg). Josh Hairston was arguably in the rotation before January 1, but after that date played 98 minutes in 22 games (4.5 average), while Marshall Plumlee hardly played before December 28 but afterwards was arguably in the rotation, essentially replacing Hairston.

So while it certainly seems possible that our 8th man in the rotation might vary or alternate (like Hairton and Plumlee in 2014) or our 9th man might play 227 minutes of garbage time (like Kelly in 2010), it still seems less than likely that we'll actually play a 9-man rotation.

All that said, if Chase Jeter improves enough over the summer, Coach K might be tempted by the idea of a "true" 9-man rotation. We'll certainly have the talent to justify it. I'm hoping, but we've had that hope before.

[Saratoga2]

I hope you're right.

And if Allen comes back (fingers crossed), I really hope he spends some time looking at gametape from down the stretch, because his shot selection was often abysmal and ill-conducive to a functioning offense. Creating one's own shot should not mean hurtling into traffic and throwing up an off-balance, low-percentage leaner as he did time and time again.

Coach K seemed to rely primarily on Brandon/Grayson to generate the offense, particularly late in the games. It was talked about as the pro-style approach. Guys like Luke tended not to participate when we could have used a third scorer. I think it was by design that Grayson was taking a lot of shots, some of them we would consider ill advised.

[Duke76]

Coach K seemed to rely primarily on Brandon/Grayson to generate the offense, particularly late in the games. It was talked about as the pro-style approach. Guys like Luke tended not to participate when we could have used a third scorer. I think it was by design that Grayson was taking a lot of shots, some of them we would consider ill advised.

not me, I didn't he took enough shots, the best game I believe he played was against GT when they were running plays specifically for him...a la JJ. Who on the team did you want taking shots at any time of the game...I thought he was too passive in first half against Oregon....

Oregon was an athletic fast team but there again I wasn't impressed with our offensive sets against zones...felt like we could have utilized Ingram at the foul line to pass into and out to the wings...didn't really like the "come set a screen for the ball handler" against zone defenses, imo

[Saratoga2]

not me, I didn't he took enough shots, the best game I believe he played was against GT when they were running plays specifically for him...a la JJ. Who on the team did you want taking shots at any time of the game...I thought he was too passive in first half against Oregon...

Oregon was an athletic fast team but there again I wasn't impressed with our offensive sets against zones...felt like we could have utilized Ingram at the foul line to pass into and out to the wings...didn't really like the "come set a screen for the ball handler" against zone defenses, imo

I agree. Oregon played an aggressive zone and were very good at closing off the driving lanes. In addition, they doubled up to block shots inside and were good at it. Brandon in the open space might have worked, but who would be pass to. MP3 wasn't reliable, so he would have had to hit the corners to be effective. That might have given Oregon trouble. This coming year we will have Jayson up front with Harry and Amile/Bolden inside. We will be much more difficult to stop inside. I'll look forward to that time.

[Duke76]

I agree. Oregon played an aggressive zone and were very good at closing off the driving lanes. In addition, they doubled up to block shots inside and were good at it. Brandon in the open space might have worked, but who would be pass to. MP3 wasn't reliable, so he would have had to hit the corners to be effective. That might have given Oregon trouble. This coming year we will have Jayson up front with Harry and Amile/Bolden inside. We will be much more difficult to stop inside. I'll look forward to that time.

you know most of us won't say it often, certainly not me, but this Carolina team plays the game right. They attacked that Syracuse zone the right way either quick passes, no dribbling, in and out to the foul line, turning around and taking the shot or passing to guy down low. It really was textbook basketball. I noticed one big guy would flash from the left baseline to foul line for a pass from the right guard, if it wasn't there he'd retreat....the ball would move to the other side and the low guy from the right side would come up and the guard from the left would look for him....this may be Roy's best TEAM.

I agree, our team wasn't nearly as balanced this year like last year's nor the one coming up....we just have to weather the next 48 hours or so. Masters will be here, baseball and most will forget about the past season and we can look forward to next without dreaded anticipation of UNC winning the 2016 natty.

[downtowndevil]

As the Capel-GT thread is closed... for this offseason what do you the think the chances are Capel is named HC-in-waiting? Yes some real talent in the fam but the recruiting prowess and continuity to this current golden age puts him over the top in my view. Plus one less thing we'd have to worry every offseason!

[freshmanjs]

As the Capel-GT thread is closed... for this offseason what do you the think the chances are Capel is named HC-in-waiting? Yes some real talent in the fam but the recruiting prowess and continuity to this current golden age puts him over the top in my view. Plus one less thing we'd have to worry every offseason!

Zero

[sagegrouse]

As the Capel-GT thread is closed... for this offseason what do you the think the chances are Capel is named HC-in-waiting? Yes some real talent in the fam but the recruiting prowess and continuity to this current golden age puts him over the top in my view. Plus one less thing we'd have to worry every offseason!


Zero

Agree. The only reason to name Capel Head-Coach-in-Waiting is if all of the following apply: (a) Capel is the clear and unmistakable choice to succeed K when he retires; (b) Coach K is gonna coach only one year more, or maybe two years; and (c) Capel is at risk for leaving and not being willing to return. Nothing against Jeff, but I believe none of these is true.

[Furniture]

you know most of us won't say it often, certainly not me, but this Carolina team plays the game right. They attacked that Syracuse zone the right way either quick passes, no dribbling, in and out to the foul line, turning around and taking the shot or passing to guy down low. It really was textbook basketball. I noticed one big guy would flash from the left baseline to foul line for a pass from the right guard, if it wasn't there he'd retreat...the ball would move to the other side and the low guy from the right side would come up and the guard from the left would look for him...this may be Roy's best TEAM.

I agree, our team wasn't nearly as balanced this year like last year's nor the one coming up...we just have to weather the next 48 hours or so. Masters will be here, baseball and most will forget about the past season and we can look forward to next without dreaded anticipation of UNC winning the 2016 natty.

Yup. Not much room for realism around here just paranoia about the possibility of UNC winning. I think they will be quite good next year and so will we of course but Duke will be a freshmen dominated team again. Will we be a 2015 team or a 2016 team? UNC will have lost Paige and Johnson but will still have veterans like Meeks, James and Hicks plus Berry, Pinson etc...
We had better be good!!!

[lotusland]

Agree. The only reason to name Capel Head-Coach-in-Waiting is if all of the following apply: (a) Capel is the clear and unmistakable choice to succeed K when he retires; (b) Coach K is gonna coach only one year more, or maybe two years; and (c) Capel is at risk for leaving and not being willing to return. Nothing against Jeff, but I believe none of these is true.

If K sticks around long enough that his retirement appears imminent it could hurt recruiting a la Spurrier at SC. At that point coach in waiting makes sense to eliminate uncertainty. Prolly not as much of an issue with planned OAD recruits vs college where they have to stay 3 years though.

[lotusland]

Grayson driving is smart basketball in the freedom of movement era except those calls are rarely made at end of games. I also think Grayson didn't always get the call for contact because he drove so recklessly at times. If he comes back I'd like to see him continue to develop his left hand, learn to change speed like Kyrie to get to the basket, use the rim to avoid blocked shots and add a floater. Seems like those skills would serve him well in the NBA as well.

I don't see why Bolden would pick Duke or UK if he's waited this long to see where the best opportunity for PT is. Maybe Jamie Dixon has a shot. I don't see how he adds anything fur duke next with Amile back as long as Giles' knee is healthy. I think Jeter is poised to make a big jump next year.

[Indoor66]

Grayson driving is smart basketball in the freedom of movement era except those calls are rarely made at end of games. I also think Grayson didn't always get the call for contact because he drove so recklessly at times. If he comes back I'd like to see him continue to develop his left hand, learn to change speed like Kyrie to get to the basket, use the rim to avoid blocked shots and add a floater. Seems like those skills would serve him well in the NBA as well.

I don't see why Bolden would pick Duke or UK if he's waited this long to see where the best opportunity for PT is. Maybe Jamie Dixon has a shot. I don't see how he adds anything fur duke next with Amile back as long as Giles' knee is healthy. I think Jeter is poised to make a big jump next year.

One more sensible analysis not enamored with recency. Bravo. :cool:

[Duke76]

Grayson driving is smart basketball in the freedom of movement era except those calls are rarely made at end of games. I also think Grayson didn't always get the call for contact because he drove so recklessly at times. If he comes back I'd like to see him continue to develop his left hand, learn to change speed like Kyrie to get to the basket, use the rim to avoid blocked shots and add a floater. Seems like those skills would serve him well in the NBA as well.

I don't see why Bolden would pick Duke or UK if he's waited this long to see where the best opportunity for PT is. Maybe Jamie Dixon has a shot. I don't see how he adds anything fur duke next with Amile back as long as Giles' knee is healthy. I think Jeter is poised to make a big jump next year.

"add a floater" great comment...all our great guards of recent vintage have had that lethal weapon...the best in my opinion is now on the staff, a Mr. Nolan Smith. summertime is calling Mr. Smith and Mr. Allen.

[indy1duke]

Yup. Not much room for realism around here just paranoia about the possibility of UNC winning. I think they will be quite good next year and so will we of course but Duke will be a freshmen dominated team again. Will we be a 2015 team or a 2016 team? UNC will have lost Paige and Johnson but will still have veterans like Meeks, James and Hicks plus Berry, Pinson etc...
We had better be good!!!

The unc website says Joel James is a senior, so unless he is awarded another year of eligibility in order to take some real classes, tonight is his last game as a Tar Heel.

[sagegrouse]

Here's the current roster of non-seniors:


Player GP MIN PPG
Joel Berry II So 39 30.5 12.6
Justin Jackson So 39 28.2 12.3
Kennedy Meeks Jr 32 20.6 9.4
Isaiah Hicks Jr 39 18.0 9.1
Nate Britt Jr 38 15.6 5.5
Theo Pinson So 39 18.8 4.6
Luke Maye Fr 32 5.6 1.2
Kenny Williams Fr 28 4.4 0.8


It looks like, if no underclassmen leave, Tar Heels will return 70 percent of their minutes and about 60 percent of their points. It would have been nice to have those percentages at Duke this year.

[Furniture]

Here's the current roster of non-seniors:


Player GP MIN PPG
Joel Berry II So 39 30.5 12.6
Justin Jackson So 39 28.2 12.3
Kennedy Meeks Jr 32 20.6 9.4
Isaiah Hicks Jr 39 18.0 9.1
Nate Britt Jr 38 15.6 5.5
Theo Pinson So 39 18.8 4.6
Luke Maye Fr 32 5.6 1.2
Kenny Williams Fr 28 4.4 0.8


It looks like, if no underclassmen leave, Tar Heels will return 70 percent of their minutes and about 60 percent of their points. It would have been nice to have those percentages at Duke this year.

Some say that Jackson might go to the NBA but I personally don't see it. He is a nice player but not good enough yet imho.

[whereinthehellami]

What do you see if we also have Allen and Bolden?


Grayson driving is smart basketball in the freedom of movement era except those calls are rarely made at end of games. I also think Grayson didn't always get the call for contact because he drove so recklessly at times. If he comes back I'd like to see him continue to develop his left hand, learn to change speed like Kyrie to get to the basket, use the rim to avoid blocked shots and add a floater. Seems like those skills would serve him well in the NBA as well.

I don't see why Bolden would pick Duke or UK if he's waited this long to see where the best opportunity for PT is. Maybe Jamie Dixon has a shot. I don't see how he adds anything fur duke next with Amile back as long as Giles' knee is healthy. I think Jeter is poised to make a big jump next year.

If Allen comes back, I think he would bump Kennard back to 6th man, Jackson to 7th, etc. Allen was a great fit for Duke, for last year. I'm just not sure he would be a great fit for next year, especially with the current baggage. Distractions and team chemistry, that kind of thing. While i don't have any personal knowledge of problems, I wonder if Allen forces a certain team identity that the rest of the team isn't really comfortable with. I'm not even sure Allen is comfortable with the hyper-intensive identity he has created for himself.

I agree with lotusland on Bolden, regarding UK and Duke. I don't think either are a really good fit for him. But if he is on board with being a role player at Duke than the depth would be great. Other than that I'm not sure he looks to be a clear step above where Jeter is right now. And if that is the case, than what would be the point? Insurance against an injury?

[luvdahops]

If Allen comes back, I think he would bump Kennard back to 6th man, Jackson to 7th, etc. Allen was a great fit for Duke, for last year. I'm just not sure he would be a great fit for next year, especially with the current baggage. Distractions and team chemistry, that kind of thing. While i don't have any personal knowledge of problems, I wonder if Allen forces a certain team identity that the rest of the team isn't really comfortable with. I'm not even sure Allen is comfortable with the hyper-intensive identity he has created for himself.


Where in the hell is this perspective on Allen coming from? Do you really K would have been so public and vocal in his support of Grayson if he considered Allen a problem in terms of chemistry, baggage, distractions, etc.?

IMHO, if Grayson does return, I would expect him to again be our primary scorer and playmaker, only surrounded by more viable scoring options.

[DukieInBrasil]

If Allen comes back, I think he would bump Kennard back to 6th man, Jackson to 7th, etc. Allen was a great fit for Duke, for last year. I'm just not sure he would be a great fit for next year, especially with the current baggage. Distractions and team chemistry, that kind of thing. While i don't have any personal knowledge of problems, I wonder if Allen forces a certain team identity that the rest of the team isn't really comfortable with. I'm not even sure Allen is comfortable with the hyper-intensive identity he has created for himself.

I agree with lotusland on Bolden, regarding UK and Duke. I don't think either are a really good fit for him. But if he is on board with being a role player at Duke than the depth would be great. Other than that I'm not sure he looks to be a clear step above where Jeter is right now. And if that is the case, than what would be the point? Insurance against an injury?

If, as people more expert than myself attest, Bolden is the best C in the class, i have a hard time seeing how he is not several steps above where Jeter finished this past year. Jeter seems more a PF than a C anyway. Still, Jeter showed an extremely limited skill-set last year. Many of his issues could very well be addressed over the summer through weight training and working on basic post moves on offense, but perhaps not. However, Bolden comes in stronger than Jeter was last year, and likely will be at the beginning of practice. If Bolden comes with any semblance of an offensive game, i have a hard time seeing how Jeter would be ahead of him. Jeter's looking like a 4-year player, which is great for the program, but if Bolden is at the 1-and-done level of talent, i would bet on him being ahead of Jeter. Bolden may not be a 1ad talent, and may still be ahead of Jeter.

[fraggler]

If, as people more expert than myself attest, Bolden is the best C in the class, i have a hard time seeing how he is not several steps above where Jeter finished this past year. Jeter seems more a PF than a C anyway. Still, Jeter showed an extremely limited skill-set last year. Many of his issues could very well be addressed over the summer through weight training and working on basic post moves on offense, but perhaps not. However, Bolden comes in stronger than Jeter was last year, and likely will be at the beginning of practice. If Bolden comes with any semblance of an offensive game, i have a hard time seeing how Jeter would be ahead of him. Jeter's looking like a 4-year player, which is great for the program, but if Bolden is at the 1-and-done level of talent, i would bet on him being ahead of Jeter. Bolden may not be a 1ad talent, and may still be ahead of Jeter.

Bolden seems to have slightly better hands and body control than Jeter at this stage, though Jeter might have an slight edge in speed and athleticism. While he has a bit of a post game, it doesn't look like he will really be all that much better than Jeter as far as iso-offense goes. He does seem a little stronger/tougher and better balanced - he held his own quite well in the McD's game. Most of Jeter's issues seem to relate more to the speed of the game/nerves more than anything else (and really bad habit of using his hands too much on D). No way to tell how Bolden will respond to the college game any (we don't know how quickly he will pick up both O and D schemes - Jeter at least has a year of experience in the system). Bolden doesn't look like a typical 1 and done type of talent to me, but who knows.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Where in the hell is this perspective on Allen coming from? Do you really K would have been so public and vocal in his support of Grayson if he considered Allen a problem in terms of chemistry, baggage, distractions, etc.?

IMHO, if Grayson does return, I would expect him to again be our primary scorer and playmaker, only surrounded by more viable scoring options.

Yeah, I'm someone who is more critical of Allen than most on this board, but I can't conceive of a scenario where every Duke player, coach, staff, and fan wouldn't be elated to have him back in uniform next year. In fact, I could see Allen coming back with a better perspective and embracing the "villain" role that seems to have been carved out for him and feeding off of it to better his production.

What teammate doesn't want a guy on their team with Allen's talent?

[sagegrouse]

If, as people more expert than myself attest, Bolden is the best C in the class, i have a hard time seeing how he is not several steps above where Jeter finished this past year. Jeter seems more a PF than a C anyway. Still, Jeter showed an extremely limited skill-set last year. Many of his issues could very well be addressed over the summer through weight training and working on basic post moves on offense, but perhaps not. However, Bolden comes in stronger than Jeter was last year, and likely will be at the beginning of practice. If Bolden comes with any semblance of an offensive game, i have a hard time seeing how Jeter would be ahead of him. Jeter's looking like a 4-year player, which is great for the program, but if Bolden is at the 1-and-done level of talent, i would bet on him being ahead of Jeter. Bolden may not be a 1ad talent, and may still be ahead of Jeter.

You may be right, but please don't forget the maxim, "The most under-rated players in college basketball are the subs on the bench." I thought Jeter made significant strides this year, and I look forward to his contributions in the future. Also, we don't know how freshman Bolden will fit into a fairly experienced Duke team on either offense or defense.

Kindly,
Sage Grouse
'For what it's worth, the GS Warriors seem to be happy playing 6-7 Draymond Green in the center position'

[DukieInBrasil]

You may be right, but please don't forget the maxim, "The most under-rated players in college basketball are the subs on the bench." I thought Jeter made significant strides this year, and I look forward to his contributions in the future. Also, we don't know how freshman Bolden will fit into a fairly experienced Duke team on either offense or defense.

Kindly,
Sage Grouse
'For what it's worth, the GS Warriors seem to be happy playing 6-7 Draymond Green in the center position'

Perhaps i am suffering from recency bias, in which i am remembering CJ played terribly vs. Oregon. He did play much better towards the end of the year than he did in that hideous middle section of the season when he played very poorly. So on that, i agree, he did improve over the course of the year. However, in a year when we absolutely needed backup post play, Jeter was unable to do anything withe opportunities given him until the GT game, after which point he had several games in a row in which he was a useful reserve player. Jeter had a handful of games when he played like a competent NCAA post player. He seems to have the physical tools, minus strength, to someday being an exciting player. Maybe he'll get there this coming year, but he'll run his own race anyway.

[HCheek37]

Here's what I see next year as an approximate breakdown of our 200 minutes on the court (assuming Allen stays and we get Bolden):

Allen 35
Giles 30
Tatum 30
Jefferson 25
Bolden 20
Kennard 20
Jackson 20
Jones 15
Jeter 5

Without Allen, give those minutes to Kennard/Jackson/Jones fairly equally. Without Bolden, I'd see Chase getting 10-15 min and Amile playing 30 min.

[Heaven's Guardian]

Here's what I see next year as an approximate breakdown of our 200 minutes on the court (assuming Allen stays and we get Bolden):
Allen 35
Giles 30
Tatum 30
Jefferson 25
Bolden 20
Kennard 20
Jackson 20
Jones 15
Jeter 5


I like Chase, and think he'll do a lot better once he has the strength to hold his ground without fouling, but we aren't playing 4 bigs regular minutes next year. If Harry's healthy, he's playing all the minutes he can handle, and Amile should play more than 25 for defense alone. We probably have 3 potential lineup sets for next year, depending on who stays/comes between Grayson, Derryck and Bolden (I expect 2 of 3).

Setup 1: No additional comings or goings. (default assumption)

A hybrid big/small lineup, with Amile and Harry playing about half the game together and half the game apart with Tatum at the 4. Grayson and Jayson play about 35 apiece, and Derryck/Matt/Luke/Frank combine in some fashion for the last 70.

Setup 2: Grayson declares, Bolden comes.

2 bigs at all times; Amile and Harry play about 32 each and Bolden 16. We start one offensive guard (Luke/Frank) and one defensive guard (Derryck/Matt), with probable lineup changes from game to game until a pecking order is established.

Setup 3: Derryck leaves, Bolden comes.

I have no reason to believe this is true, and I normally wouldn't list this lineup until hearing otherwise, but since yours doesn't have him I'll add this for comparison.

Same big rotation as 2, but drop Jayson/Grayson down to about 32-33 minutes to open up about 55 combined for Frank/Matt/Luke.

I can't see Coach K playing 9 regularly since he never does, so guys like Chase and Javin will probably only have minutes available if someone leaves and Bolden doesn't come.

[HCheek37]

I like Chase, and think he'll do a lot better once he has the strength to hold his ground without fouling, but we aren't playing 4 bigs regular minutes next year. If Harry's healthy, he's playing all the minutes he can handle, and Amile should play more than 25 for defense alone. We probably have 3 potential lineup sets for next year, depending on who stays/comes between Grayson, Derryck and Bolden (I expect 2 of 3).

I can't see Coach K playing 9 regularly since he never does, so guys like Chase and Javin will probably only have minutes available if someone leaves and Bolden doesn't come.

A few points to respond to here:

1) I just don't see Amile playing more than 25 minutes considering the foul trouble he's been prone to get into. During the one year he was the primary big (13-14), he averaged ~5 fouls per 40 minutes.

2) I also wouldn't exactly count my 5 minute projection for Chase as regular time. Something like Marshall's 2014 season would make sense to me...some DNPs, some double digit minutes based on score but in the end a reserve role. Also seems to fit for me based on what our opinion was of Marshall in 2014 compared to the general consensus around Chase after this season.

3) Your expectation of 2 out of 3 of G, Derryck and Bolden has to be the case unless we remove a scholarship from someone else (already assuming we take Robinson's scholarship back to stay under the limit of 13). Currently committed now we have 1 graduate, 1 senior, 2 juniors, 4 sophmores, 6 freshmen which is already one too many before Bolden possibly commits which would put us 2 above the limit. We will see further movement within this squad as hinted at earlier in the thread.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

Here's what I see next year as an approximate breakdown of our 200 minutes on the court (assuming Allen stays and we get Bolden):

Allen 35
Giles 30
Tatum 30
Jefferson 25
Bolden 20
Kennard 20
Jackson 20
Jones 15
Jeter 5

Without Allen, give those minutes to Kennard/Jackson/Jones fairly equally. Without Bolden, I'd see Chase getting 10-15 min and Amile playing 30 min.

Who's the point guard??

Jackson? Jones? Allen? Thornton? Kennard?

[freshmanjs]

Who's the point guard??

Jackson? Jones? Allen? Thornton? Kennard?

Yup. (whichever of them are on the team - hopefully all).

[wilson]

If Jack White doesn't crack the rotation, then the pep band should press charges for a crime against their existence.

[gofurman]

Here's what I see next year as an approximate breakdown of our 200 minutes on the court (assuming Allen stays and we get Bolden):

Allen 35
Giles 30
Tatum 30
Jefferson 25
Bolden 20
Kennard 20
Jackson 20
Jones 15
Jeter 5

Without Allen, give those minutes to Kennard/Jackson/Jones fairly equally. Without Bolden, I'd see Chase getting 10-15 min and Amile playing 30 min.

SO you are saying K plays 8 guys more than 10 minutes each? I see the talent but that almost never happens.. has it ever happened under K? has he ever played 8 guys 10+ minutes consistently for a year? (Not counting an injury where one guy replaces another mid year)

[Indoor66]

I really think a lot of you guys are underrating Jeter. He will be a soph, he will know the system, he will mature and gain strength. Freshmen, especially big men, have a pretty big learning curve. There are very few Jah's playing. Even he had is lessor moments. IMO Chase will be a large factor next year (not a pun).

[gofurman]

SO you are saying K plays 8 guys more than 10 minutes each? I see the talent but that almost never happens.. has it ever happened under K? has he ever played 8 guys 10+ minutes consistently for a year? (Not counting an injury where one guy replaces another mid year)

Nevermind.. I just read some posts on page 7 of thread... addressing this issue. Sounds like it has happened a few times - maybe 3 in 30 years or so.

[Olympic Fan]

SO you are saying K plays 8 guys more than 10 minutes each? I see the talent but that almost never happens.. has it ever happened under K? has he ever played 8 guys 10+ minutes consistently for a year? (Not counting an injury where one guy replaces another mid year)

It's actually happened quite often ... most recently in 2011 - and that's not counting Kyrie Irving.

Eight players were in double-digit minutes in 2010. Mason Plumlee did miss six games early with a broken wrist, but that didn't impact the fact that eight players played at least 12.6 minutes a game -- nine if you count Czyz, who averaged over 10 minutes for the six games he played before leaving.

There are many more examples - including 2009 when nine players got there (easily) and 1998 when 10 players got there (although Domzalski only made it because Brand was hurt).

The 2012-15 teams all barely missed (2013 actually had eight ... but Kelly's injury helped Jefferson get here).

I don't think eight is as rare or unusual as you seem to think.

[sagegrouse]

SO you are saying K plays 8 guys more than 10 minutes each? I see the talent but that almost never happens.. has it ever happened under K? has he ever played 8 guys 10+ minutes consistently for a year? (Not counting an injury where one guy replaces another mid year)

In 1997-1998 K played NINE players 10 or more minutes (based on total number of games x 10). The fewest of the nine were 453 for Chris Burgess. As you recall, Brand was injured, so that created some extra minutes at the post, but there was a lot of talent on that team. If Brand is not injured, there would probably have been eight.

The following year 1998-99, there were eight players averaging ten or more minutes per game (same formula). The fewest minutes went to Nate James at 573 for 39 games. In addition, Dr. Taymon Domzalski had 296 minutes.

In 2002-2003 there were also NINE players averaging ten or more minutes for each of Duke's 33 games. This was a green team with six freshman. Sean Dockery had the fewest of the nine at 345 minutes total.

[ncexnyc]

I really think a lot of you guys are underrating Jeter. He will be a soph, he will know the system, he will mature and gain strength. Freshmen, especially big men, have a pretty big learning curve. There are very few Jah's playing. Even he had is lessor moments. IMO Chase will be a large factor next year (not a pun).
You know how this board rolls. The nicely wrapped package under the tree contains the best present ever.

[RepoMan]

Here's what I see next year as an approximate breakdown of our 200 minutes on the court (assuming Allen stays and we get Bolden):


Bolden 20

Jeter 5




What makes you think Freshman Bolden so soundly beats out Sophomore Jeter for PT?

[yancem]

Here's what I see next year as an approximate breakdown of our 200 minutes on the court (assuming Allen stays and we get Bolden):

Allen 35
Giles 30
Tatum 30
Jefferson 25
Bolden 20
Kennard 20
Jackson 20
Jones 15
Jeter 5

Without Allen, give those minutes to Kennard/Jackson/Jones fairly equally. Without Bolden, I'd see Chase getting 10-15 min and Amile playing 30 min.

I really hope that with the depth of talent we have next season, no one averages more than 30-31 mpg. I think that we should be able to wear teams down with tons of pressure defense and a fast moving offense. Run hard for 4-5 minutes and come out. I'm not saying platoon per say but Jeter was able to give more than 5 mpg this year and should be stronger and more mature next season. He should definitely be capable of providing 8-10 solid minutes. On the other side, I think that Allen wore down some over the course of the season because he averaged over 36 mpg. Bring him down to 30 and slide those minutes down the line IMHO.

[CDu]

It's actually happened quite often ... most recently in 2011 - and that's not counting Kyrie Irving.

Eight players were in double-digit minutes in 2010. Mason Plumlee did miss six games early with a broken wrist, but that didn't impact the fact that eight players played at least 12.6 minutes a game -- nine if you count Czyz, who averaged over 10 minutes for the six games he played before leaving.

There are many more examples - including 2009 when nine players got there (easily) and 1998 when 10 players got there (although Domzalski only made it because Brand was hurt).

The 2012-15 teams all barely missed (2013 actually had eight ... but Kelly's injury helped Jefferson get here).

I don't think eight is as rare or unusual as you seem to think.

Actually, I would say 8 guys getting 10+ minutes per game over a season is the norm, not the exception. As you said, we barely missed in 2015 only because Sulaimon got kicked off the team. Even then, Sulaimon was just 4 minutes shy of 390 (10 mpg) and Plumlee was just 15 minutes shy. And heck, Allen got to 322 minutes despite not being in the rotation for half the year. We only missed in 2014 because Hairston and Plumlee each split backup big minutes. They combined to average about 15 mpg. 2013 technically made it. We had 8 get there in 2012 too. Essentially every other year back until 2007.

[Heaven's Guardian]

A few points to respond to here:

1) I just don't see Amile playing more than 25 minutes considering the foul trouble he's been prone to get into. During the one year he was the primary big (13-14), he averaged ~5 fouls per 40 minutes.

2) I also wouldn't exactly count my 5 minute projection for Chase as regular time. Something like Marshall's 2014 season would make sense to me...some DNPs, some double digit minutes based on score but in the end a reserve role. Also seems to fit for me based on what our opinion was of Marshall in 2014 compared to the general consensus around Chase after this season.

3) Your expectation of 2 out of 3 of G, Derryck and Bolden has to be the case unless we remove a scholarship from someone else (already assuming we take Robinson's scholarship back to stay under the limit of 13). Currently committed now we have 1 graduate, 1 senior, 2 juniors, 4 sophmores, 6 freshmen which is already one too many before Bolden possibly commits which would put us 2 above the limit. We will see further movement within this squad as hinted at earlier in the thread.

Response:

1. Sure, Amile commits fouls at a decent clip, but 25 minutes is very low for the only experienced big on the roster. He'd probably have to commit 7 per 40 to only get 25, and I expect his foul rate to drop somewhat with experience and Giles, who is more of a two-way big than Jah was.

2. Fair enough, but I wonder if we might go small if we have foul trouble with the bigs. I like Chase, but he kind of reminds me of Alex Murphy. Extremely talented, but not totally confident in his ability to avoid mistakes and some physical limitations (strength v. lateral quickness for Murph) that make it difficult for him to earn confidence.

3. Yeah, I know the scholarship count. It's more an expectation that we won't have 1 or none of the 3; Bolden has a clearer path to PT here than with Kentucky's 7-8 bigs. As for other stuff, I shall more or less close my eyes and ears in accordance with the mods' wishes until hard evidence otherwise is presented.

[Kedsy]

I just don't see Amile playing more than 25 minutes considering the foul trouble he's been prone to get into. During the one year he was the primary big (13-14), he averaged ~5 fouls per 40 minutes.

I'm not sure I'd characterize 4.67 fouls per 40 as "~5," although I suppose your mileage may vary. I'm also not sure Amile's fouls per minute as a sophomore should be the benchmark here. He only averaged 3.66 fouls per minute as a junior and 3.52 as a senior. I understand he was mostly playing 5 in 2013-14 and was a mix of 4 and 5 in the other years, but I think the stronger trend is him fouling less as he gained more experience. Finally, even if you use 4.67 fouls per 40 as the benchmark, he could play 30 mpg and only average 3.5 fouls per game. I'd conclude that fouls will probably not keep Amile from playing 30 mpg, although it's possible Coach K may decide not to use him that much for other reasons.


I also wouldn't exactly count my 5 minute projection for Chase as regular time. Something like Marshall's 2014 season would make sense to me...some DNPs, some double digit minutes based on score but in the end a reserve role. Also seems to fit for me based on what our opinion was of Marshall in 2014 compared to the general consensus around Chase after this season.

FWIW, in 2013-14, starting on 1/13/14, Marshall played 5 or more minutes in 16 of our 19 games (and 10+ minutes in 11 of 19). That sounds like "regular time" to me. It is true that before 1/13/14, he didn't play all that much, but I'd argue he joined the rotation on 1/13 (approximately the same time Josh Hairston fell out of the rotation).


3) Your expectation of 2 out of 3 of G, Derryck and Bolden has to be the case unless we remove a scholarship from someone else (already assuming we take Robinson's scholarship back to stay under the limit of 13). Currently committed now we have 1 graduate, 1 senior, 2 juniors, 4 sophmores, 6 freshmen which is already one too many before Bolden possibly commits which would put us 2 above the limit.

I don't think this is correct. I believe we only have 5 freshmen currently coming in (Giles, Tatum, Jackson, DeLaurier, White), which would put us exactly at the limit, meaning if we have one departure we'll have room for Marques Bolden.


In 1997-1998 K played NINE players 10 or more minutes (based on total number of games x 10). The fewest of the nine were 453 for Chris Burgess. As you recall, Brand was injured, so that created some extra minutes at the post, but there was a lot of talent on that team. If Brand is not injured, there would probably have been eight.

The following year 1998-99, there were eight players averaging ten or more minutes per game (same formula). The fewest minutes went to Nate James at 573 for 39 games. In addition, Dr. Taymon Domzalski had 296 minutes.

In 2002-2003 there were also NINE players averaging ten or more minutes for each of Duke's 33 games. This was a green team with six freshman. Sean Dockery had the fewest of the nine at 345 minutes total.

While your counts are technically correct, those minute averages counted a LOT of garbage time and games against inferior opponents. In games after January 1 that were decided by fewer than 20 points, the 1998 team played 9 games with 7 players getting 10+ minutes and 4 games with 8 players getting 10+ minutes. In 1999, in such games we used 7 players for 10+ minutes 7 times, 8 players for 10+ minutes 2 times and only 6 players for 10+ minutes 2 times. In 2003, in such games we played 17 games with 7 players getting 10+ minutes, 2 games with 8 players getting 10+ minutes, 1 game with 9 players getting 10+ minutes and 3 games with only 6 players getting 10+ minutes.

In other words, when the rubber hit the road, even in those "deep" seasons we only played seven players for 10+ mpg when it counted.


I really hope that with the depth of talent we have next season, no one averages more than 30-31 mpg.

In Coach K's 36 seasons at Duke, we've only had two (2) seasons when nobody averaged more than 31 mpg. Those two seasons were 1998 (top minute-getter had just 28.8 mpg) and 1999 (top minute-getter had 31.0 mpg. 1997 came close, with our top minute-getter having 31.3 mpg. Now, our roster for next season seems potentially as deep as the 1998 and 1999 teams, so it's possible our top minute-guy will be in that ballpark. But it's probably more likely that the minute pattern will more closely match Coach K's other 33 seasons at Duke.

[brlftz]

I think this next year will look a lot like '99. With so much talent we'll go deeper in routine situations. When it gets serious, though, I see K sticking with experience and toughness beyond what fans might expect.

My take, assuming Bolden comes, Allen stays, and that Bolden earns more time than Jeter:

Pre- through early-season. Yay, everyone plays!


Perimeter
Minutes
Swing
Minutes
Interior
Minutes


Allen
28
Tatum
28
Bolden
20


Jackson
20


Jeter
12


Kennard
20


Giles
28


Jones
20


Jefferson
24



Stuff's getting real, conference play:


Perimeter
Minutes
Swing
Minutes
Interior
Minutes


Allen
32
Tatum
32
Bolden
12


Jackson
12


Jeter
6


Kennard
22


Giles
32


Jones
20


Jefferson
32



Oh crap, win or die!


Perimeter
Minutes
Swing
Minutes
Interior
Minutes


Allen
36
Tatum
36
Bolden
4


Jackson
4


Giles
36


Kennard
20


Jefferson
36


Jones
28

[HCheek37]

I'm not sure I'd characterize 4.67 fouls per 40 as "~5," although I suppose your mileage may vary. I'm also not sure Amile's fouls per minute as a sophomore should be the benchmark here. He only averaged 3.66 fouls per minute as a junior and 3.52 as a senior. I understand he was mostly playing 5 in 2013-14 and was a mix of 4 and 5 in the other years, but I think the stronger trend is him fouling less as he gained more experience. Finally, even if you use 4.67 fouls per 40 as the benchmark, he could play 30 mpg and only average 3.5 fouls per game. I'd conclude that fouls will probably not keep Amile from playing 30 mpg, although it's possible Coach K may decide not to use him that much for other reasons.

I think its much more reasonable to look at his 2013-2014 than the past two years where he was not the main post defender. If you look at 13-14, against top tier opponents the foul rate was 4.97 - hope that counts as ~5 to you. Pretty sure fouls will be a piece of him not playing 30, not the only thing.


FWIW, in 2013-14, starting on 1/13/14, Marshall played 5 or more minutes in 16 of our 19 games (and 10+ minutes in 11 of 19). That sounds like "regular time" to me. It is true that before 1/13/14, he didn't play all that much, but I'd argue he joined the rotation on 1/13 (approximately the same time Josh Hairston fell out of the rotation).

I was projecting season numbers. Sure, things change as a year goes on but we have no info yet. Maybe Chase will progress or stall.



I don't think this is correct. I believe we only have 5 freshmen currently coming in (Giles, Tatum, Jackson, DeLaurier, White), which would put us exactly at the limit, meaning if we have one departure we'll have room for Marques Bolden.

Wrong. We have 5 committed, Bolden would be 6. With everyone else, and info that Grayson is staying, we have 14 committed now and Bolden would be 15. We'll need to have 2 departures (or scholarships removed) if Bolden commits.

Giles, Tatum, Jackson, DeLaurier, White, Bolden* = 6 true freshmen
Robinson = 1 redshirt frosh
Jeter, Kennard, Thornton, Vrankovic = 4 sophmores
Obi = 1 redshirt junior
Allen = 1 junior
Jones = 1 senior
Jefferson = 1 medical redshirt senior

That's 15.

[HCheek37]

I think this next year will look a lot like '99. With so much talent we'll go deeper in routine situations. When it gets serious, though, I see K sticking with experience and toughness beyond what fans might expect.

My take, assuming Bolden comes, Allen stays, and that Bolden earns more time than Jeter:

Pre- through early-season. Yay, everyone plays!


Perimeter
Minutes
Swing
Minutes
Interior
Minutes


Allen
28
Tatum
28
Bolden
20


Jackson
20


Jeter
12


Kennard
20


Giles
28


Jones
20


Jefferson
24



Stuff's getting real, conference play:


Perimeter
Minutes
Swing
Minutes
Interior
Minutes


Allen
32
Tatum
32
Bolden
12


Jackson
12


Jeter
6


Kennard
22


Giles
32


Jones
20


Jefferson
32



Oh crap, win or die!


Perimeter
Minutes
Swing
Minutes
Interior
Minutes


Allen
36
Tatum
36
Bolden
4


Jackson
4


Giles
36


Kennard
20


Jefferson
36


Jones
28







Wayyyy too many minutes in the "oh crap" scenario for Matt Jones. Love him but unless he's even better than the best form we've seen from him, I would venture to say he would get less PT than Kennard and possibly Jackson now that we have big wing defenders.

[COYS]

I think its much more reasonable to look at his 2013-2014 than the past two years where he was not the main post defender. If you look at 13-14, against top tier opponents the foul rate was 4.97 - hope that counts as ~5 to you. Pretty sure fouls will be a piece of him not playing 30, not the only thing.



I was projecting season numbers. Sure, things change as a year goes on but we have no info yet. Maybe Chase will progress or stall.




Wrong. We have 5 committed, Bolden would be 6. With everyone else, and info that Grayson is staying, we have 14 committed now and Bolden would be 15. We'll need to have 2 departures (or scholarships removed) if Bolden commits.

Giles, Tatum, Jackson, DeLaurier, White, Bolden* = 6 true freshmen
Robinson = 1 redshirt frosh
Jeter, Kennard, Thornton, Vrankovic = 4 sophmores
Obi = 1 redshirt junior
Allen = 1 junior
Jones = 1 senior
Jefferson = 1 medical redshirt senior

That's 15.

Robinson is a preferred walk-on and only gets a scholarship if one is available. He only counts against the scholarship limit if there's one available and K gives him one. Word on the street is that his dad was a pretty successful NBA player and can afford tuition if no scholarships are available ;).

[brlftz]

Wayyyy too many minutes in the "oh crap" scenario for Matt Jones. Love him but unless he's even better than the best form we've seen from him, I would venture to say he would get less PT than Kennard and possibly Jackson now that we have big wing defenders.

We'll see. His defense is much more valuable than most people appreciate, and on a team with heavy minutes going to freshmen, I expect that many people will once again be left scratching their heads over why Jones is on the floor so much. My belief is that K's tendency in the "oh crap" scenario is to place a lot of weight on the toughness and experience aspects. Allen, Tatum and Giles provide the explosive scoring, Jones and Jefferson will balance that with toughness, D, and rebounding.

Again, that's my prediction of what K will likely do, but you have a strong argument to make. Jackson could very well be so good that he puts Jones on the bench in crunch time.

[freshmanjs]

Wrong. We have 5 committed, Bolden would be 6. With everyone else, and info that Grayson is staying, we have 14 committed now and Bolden would be 15. We'll need to have 2 departures (or scholarships removed) if Bolden commits.

Giles, Tatum, Jackson, DeLaurier, White, Bolden* = 6 true freshmen
Robinson = 1 redshirt frosh
Jeter, Kennard, Thornton, Vrankovic = 4 sophmores
Obi = 1 redshirt junior
Allen = 1 junior
Jones = 1 senior
Jefferson = 1 medical redshirt senior

That's 15.

Wrong. Robinson will go back to being non scholarship (it's not a removal..was always preferred walkon)

[Kedsy]

Wrong. We have 5 committed, Bolden would be 6. With everyone else, and info that Grayson is staying, we have 14 committed now and Bolden would be 15. We'll need to have 2 departures (or scholarships removed) if Bolden commits.

Giles, Tatum, Jackson, DeLaurier, White, Bolden* = 6 true freshmen
Robinson = 1 redshirt frosh
Jeter, Kennard, Thornton, Vrankovic = 4 sophmores
Obi = 1 redshirt junior
Allen = 1 junior
Jones = 1 senior
Jefferson = 1 medical redshirt senior

That's 15.

Sorry, you're the one who's wrong. Justin Robinson is a "preferred walk-on," meaning he only gets a scholarship if one's available, and it doesn't look like one will be available next season. As I said before, if we have one departure, there's room for Marques Bolden.

Also, in 2014 we more or less had a wing player playing PF, meaning Amile was essentially the only big, and this year we will have Harry Giles. So the onus won't be so heavy on Amile to be the "main post defender." Even if you want to discount a season and half of experience in not committing fouls, 2013-14 is still probably not a good barometer for Amile's future foul rate.

[Saratoga2]

I think its much more reasonable to look at his 2013-2014 than the past two years where he was not the main post defender. If you look at 13-14, against top tier opponents the foul rate was 4.97 - hope that counts as ~5 to you. Pretty sure fouls will be a piece of him not playing 30, not the only thing.



I was projecting season numbers. Sure, things change as a year goes on but we have no info yet. Maybe Chase will progress or stall.




Wrong. We have 5 committed, Bolden would be 6. With everyone else, and info that Grayson is staying, we have 14 committed now and Bolden would be 15. We'll need to have 2 departures (or scholarships removed) if Bolden commits.

Giles, Tatum, Jackson, DeLaurier, White, Bolden* = 6 true freshmen
Robinson = 1 redshirt frosh
Jeter, Kennard, Thornton, Vrankovic = 4 sophmores
Obi = 1 redshirt junior
Allen = 1 junior
Jones = 1 senior
Jefferson = 1 medical redshirt senior

That's 15.

You are correct in the enumeration. Clearly there must be something unknown to us at this time, since we are still offering Marques Bolden. Robinson could be one of the people to drop off of a scholarship. Grayson is listed as undecided about the NBA draft and/or some player may choose to transfer. This group of players and recruits make the prospects for the 2016/17 team very bright. I believe Bolden is an important get for this team as he has the size and strength to become a major inside presence that Chase didn't possess last year and Harry and Amile are more power forwards than centers.

[CDu]

Sorry, you're the one who's wrong. Justin Robinson is a "preferred walk-on," meaning he only gets a scholarship if one's available, and it doesn't look like one will be available next season. As I said before, if we have one departure, there's room for Marques Bolden.

Also, in 2014 we more or less had a wing player playing PF, meaning Amile was essentially the only big, and this year we will have Harry Giles. So the onus won't be so heavy on Amile to be the "main post defender." Even if you want to discount a season and half of experience in not committing fouls, 2013-14 is still probably not a good barometer for Amile's future foul rate.

I would also note that Jefferson will have a sophomore year, 6'10" Jeter and/or a 6'11" Bolden to go along with Giles. And Jefferson will be 2 years older and stronger than he was in 2014, making him better able to play inside.

Though I would also note that Jabari Parker was every bit a post player defensively coming out of high school, and every bit a PF in college. And Duke also had Plumlee and Hairston getting about 15 mpg combined that year. So I don't know that it is quite fair to say that Jeffeson was the only big in 2014. We had 5 bigs. We just didn't have 5 very good bigs.


You are correct in the enumeration. Clearly there must be something unknown to us at this time, since we are still offering Marques Bolden. Robinson could be one of the people to drop off of a scholarship. Grayson is listed as undecided about the NBA draft and/or some player may choose to transfer. This group of players and recruits make the prospects for the 2016/17 team very bright. I believe Bolden is an important get for this team as he has the size and strength to become a major inside presence that Chase didn't possess last year and Harry and Amile are more power forwards than centers.

He is correct in math but incorrect in understanding of the situation. Robinson does not have a scholarship for next year. He was not recruited by Duke to be a scholarship player. He is, essentially, Patrick Johnson but with an NBA father. Next year, he will not be on scholarship unless (a) another player transfers and (b) Bolden goes elsewhere and (c) the staff decides to give him a scholarship again. It's not a situation where "Robinson could be one of the people to drop off a scholarship." He WILL be dropped off scholarship if the team needs one. This was as it was agreed upon when he came to Duke, and he himself said as much.