Duke as it might have been....what if everybody stayed four years?

[boyce]

We all talk about the "might have beens", and decry the one-and-done phenomena that takes players from our team just as they're getting good. Just to annoy myself, I pulled a database from CBS sports for the Duke rosters from 1999 forwards to the present day. I carried over players as "hypothetical" as if everybody had stayed for four years. (I included not just NBA early picks, but also the transfers). Some of these rosters may be larger than the NCAA would have allowed.

I listed, from 1999 to this year, the rosters. I've appended the results to the bottom of this post, but you'll probably prefer to look at the spreadsheet I saved to my website: http://www.level6analytics.com/dbr (http://www.level6analytics.com/dbr/)/ . People are listed either by the team year in the right margin (e.g. "2001"), or, if they left early, but could have stayed for that year as hypothetical (e.g. "2001 Hypothetical").

There are some years that are just crazy good: the 2001 team would have had:

@ Forward: Battier, Carrawell, Nate James, Chris Burgess, Corey Maggette
@ Guard: Mike Dunleavey, Jason Williams, William Avery, Chris Duhon
@ Center: Carlos Boozer, Elton Brand



2003 would look like this:

@Forward: Dahntay Jones, Shavlik Randolf, Shelden Williams, Mike Dunleavy
@Guard: Duhon, Ewing, Redick, and Jason Williams
@ Center: Casey Sanders (I think Shelden might have been here, but the roster lists him at the 'F' position.)

Some years were almost or entirely unaffected. 2004, where we were a decent 31-6, would not have been affected at all. 2010, we would have had Taylor King and Eric Boateng still (whom?)

When we lost a bunch of freshman one year, it's easy to mourn them the next, but we forget about the upperclassmen who should have been there too. For example, in 2015, it's easy to remember Jabari Parker who should have been there competing with Okafor for playing time, but we should also have had Austin Rivers and Michael Gbinje (who should have been seniors), and Rodney Hood, who should have been a junior. (Note: Rodney Hood was listed as a sophomore the first year he played for us, but I believe that something about the transfer process may have not really left him with two years of eligibility as the database implied).

Of course, this season, we could have had Tyus Jones, Jalil Okafor, and Justice Winslow AND Jabari Parker (Junior), Rasheed Sulaimon (Senior), and Rodney Hood. I think we could rested Mason's poor nose and Matt's ankle more.


-Boyce
################Rosters Follow##################################
Name Year Position Year
William Avery SO G 1999
Shane Battier SO F 1999
Elton Brand SO C 1999
D Bryant FR G 1999
Chris Burgess SO F 1999
Justin Caldbeck SR G 1999
Ryan Caldbeck SO G 1999
Chris Carrawell JR F 1999
Taymon Domzalski SR C 1999
Jay Heaps 1999
Nate James SO F 1999
Trajan Langdon SR G 1999
Corey Maggette FR F 1999
J.D. Simpson SO G 1999


Shane Battier JR F 2000
Carlos Boozer FR C 2000
Andy Borman FR G 2000
Andre Buckner FR G 2000
Ryan Caldbeck JR G 2000
Chris Carrawell SR F 2000
Matt Christensen SO F 2000
Mike Dunleavy FR G 2000
Nick Horvath FR F 2000
Nate James JR F 2000
Casey Sanders FR C 2000
J.D. Simpson JR G 2000
Jay Williams FR G 2000
William Avery JR G 2000 Hypothetical
Elton Brand JR C 2000 Hypothetical
Chris Burgess JR F 2000 Hypothetical
Corey Maggette SO F 2000 Hypothetical

Shane Battier SR F 2001
Carlos Boozer SO C 2001
Andy Borman SO G 2001
Andre Buckner SO G 2001
Ryan Caldbeck SR G 2001
Matt Christensen JR F 2001
Chris Duhon FR G 2001
Mike Dunleavy SO F 2001
Nick Horvath SO F 2001
Nate James SR F 2001
Reggie Love FR G 2001
Casey Sanders SO C 2001
J.D. Simpson SR G 2001
Andre Sweet FR F 2001
Jay Williams SO G 2001
William Avery SR G 2001 Hypothetical
Elton Brand SR C 2001 Hypothetical
Chris Burgess SR F 2001 Hypothetical
Corey Maggette JR F 2001 Hypothetical


Carlos Boozer JR C 2002
Andy Borman JR G 2002
Andre Buckner JR G 2002
Mark Causey FR G 2002
Matt Christensen SR F 2002
Chris Duhon SO G 2002
Mike Dunleavy JR F 2002
Daniel Ewing FR G 2002
Nick Horvath JR F 2002
Dahntay Jones JR F 2002
Reggie Love SO F 2002
Andy Means SO G 2002
Casey Sanders JR C 2002
Jay Williams JR G 2002
Corey Maggette SR F 2002 Hypothetical




Andre Buckner SR G 2003
Sean Dockery FR G 2003
Chris Duhon JR G 2003
Daniel Ewing SO G 2003
Nick Horvath SR F 2003
Patrick Johnson SO F 2003
Dahntay Jones SR F 2003
Andy Means JR G 2003
Lee Melchionni FR F 2003
Shavlik Randolph FR F 2003
J.J. Redick FR G 2003
Casey Sanders SR C 2003
Michael Thompson FR C 2003
Shelden Williams FR F 2003
Mike Dunleavy SR F 2003 Hypothetical
Jay Williams SR G 2003 Hypothetical


Andy Borman SR G 2004
Patrick Davidson FR G 2004
Luol Deng FR F 2004
Sean Dockery SO G 2004
Chris Duhon SR G 2004
Daniel Ewing JR G 2004
Nick Horvath SR F 2004
Patrick Johnson JR F 2004
Lee Melchionni SO F 2004
Joe Pagliuca FR G 2004
Shavlik Randolph SO F 2004
J.J. Redick SO G 2004
Michael Thompson SO C 2004
Shelden Williams SO F 2004





Patrick Davidson SO G 2005
Sean Dockery JR G 2005
Daniel Ewing SR G 2005
Patrick Johnson SR F 2005
Reggie Love SR F 2005
David McClure FR F 2005
Lee Melchionni JR F 2005
DeMarcus Nelson FR G 2005
Tom Novick SO F 2005
Joe Pagliuca SO G 2005
Ross Perkins JR G 2005
Shavlik Randolph JR F 2005
J.J. Redick JR G 2005
Shelden Williams JR F 2005
Luol Deng SO F 2005 Hypothetical




Eric Boateng FR C 2006
Jamal Boykin FR F 2006
Jordan Davidson FR G 2006
Sean Dockery SR G 2006
Patrick Johnson SR C 2006
Josh McRoberts FR F 2006
Lee Melchionni SR F 2006
DeMarcus Nelson SO G 2006
Joe Pagliuca JR G 2006
Greg Paulus FR G 2006
Ross Perkins SR G 2006
Martynas Pocius FR F 2006
J.J. Redick SR G 2006
Shelden Williams SR F 2006
Shavlik Randolph SR F 2006 Hypothetical
Luol Deng JR F 2006 Hypothetical




Jamal Boykin SO F 2007
Jordan Davidson SO G 2007
Gerald Henderson FR G 2007
Steve Johnson FR F 2007
David McClure SO F 2007
Josh McRoberts SO F 2007
DeMarcus Nelson JR G 2007
Joe Pagliuca SR G 2007
Greg Paulus SO G 2007
Martynas Pocius SO F 2007
Jon Scheyer FR G 2007
Nick Sutton FR 2007
Lance Thomas FR F 2007
Brian Zoubek FR C 2007
Eric Boateng SO C 2007 Hypothetical
Luol Deng SR F 2007 Hypothetical


Jordan Davidson JR G 2008
Gerald Henderson SO G 2008
Taylor King FR F 2008
David McClure JR F 2008
DeMarcus Nelson SR G 2008
Greg Paulus JR G 2008
Martynas Pocius JR G 2008
Jon Scheyer SO G 2008
Kyle Singler FR F 2008
Nolan Smith FR G 2008
Lance Thomas SO F 2008
Brian Zoubek SO C 2008
Eric Boateng SO C 2008 Hypotheticl



Olek Czyz FR F 2009
Gerald Henderson JR G 2009
Steve Johnson SO F 2009
David McClure SR F 2009
Greg Paulus SR G 2009
Miles Plumlee FR F 2009
Martynas Pocius SR G 2009
Jon Scheyer JR G 2009
Kyle Singler SO F 2009
Nolan Smith SO G 2009
Lance Thomas JR F 2009
Elliot Williams FR G 2009
Brian Zoubek JR C 2009
Taylor King SO F 2009 Hypothetical
Eric Boateng JR C 2009 Hypothetical

Olek Czyz SO F 2010
Jordan Davidson SR G 2010
Andre Dawkins FR G 2010
Steve Johnson JR F 2010
Ryan Kelly FR F 2010
Casey Peters JR G 2010
Mason Plumlee FR F 2010
Miles Plumlee SO F 2010
Jon Scheyer SR G 2010
Kyle Singler JR F 2010
Nolan Smith JR G 2010
Lance Thomas SR F 2010
Brian Zoubek SR C 2010
Taylor King JR F 2010 Hypotheical
Eric Boateng SR C 2010 Hypotheical

Seth Curry SO G 2011
Andre Dawkins SO G 2011
Josh Hairston FR F 2011
Kyrie Irving FR G 2011
Ryan Kelly SO F 2011
Casey Peters SR G 2011
Mason Plumlee SO F 2011
Miles Plumlee JR F 2011
Kyle Singler SR F 2011
Nolan Smith SR G 2011
Tyler Thornton FR G 2011
Todd Zafirovski SO F 2011
Taylor King SR F 2011 Hyptothetical






Quinn Cook FR G 2012
Seth Curry JR G 2012
Andre Dawkins JR G 2012
Michael Gbinije FR G-F 2012
Josh Hairston SO F 2012
Ryan Kelly JR F 2012
Mason Plumlee JR F 2012
Miles Plumlee SR F 2012
Austin Rivers FR G 2012
Tyler Thornton SO G 2012
Todd Zafirovski JR F 2012
Kyrie Irving JR G 2012 Hypothetical



Quinn Cook SO G 2013
Seth Curry SR G 2013
Josh Hairston JR F 2013
Amile Jefferson FR F 2013
Ryan Kelly SR F 2013
Alex Murphy FR F 2013
Marshall Plumlee FR F 2013
Mason Plumlee SR F 2013
Rasheed Sulaimon FR G 2013
Tyler Thornton JR G 2013
Todd Zafirovski SR F 2013
Kyrie Irving SR G 2013 Hypothetical





Quinn Cook JR G 2014
Andre Dawkins SR G 2014
Josh Hairston SR F 2014
Rodney Hood SO F 2014
Amile Jefferson SO F 2014
Matt Jones FR G 2014
Alex Murphy SO F 2014
Semi Ojeleye FR F 2014
Nick Pagliuca FR G 2014
Jabari Parker FR F 2014
Marshall Plumlee SO C 2014
Rasheed Sulaimon SO G 2014
Tyler Thornton SR G 2014
Todd Zafirovski SR F 2014
Michael Gbinije JR G-F 2014 Hypothetical
Austin Rivers JR G 2014 Hypothetical
Kyrie Irving SR G 2014 Hypothetical



Grayson Allen FR G 2015
Quinn Cook SR G 2015
Amile Jefferson JR F 2015
Matt Jones SO G 2015
Tyus Jones FR G 2015
Sean Kelly SR G 2015
Semi Ojeleye SO F 2015
Jahlil Okafor FR C 2015
Nick Pagliuca SO G 2015
Marshall Plumlee JR C 2015
Rasheed Sulaimon JR G 2015
Justise Winslow FR F 2015
Michael Gbinije SR G-F 2015 Hypothetical
Austin Rivers SR G 2015 Hypothetical
Jabari Parker SO F 2015 Hypothetical
Rodney Hood JR F 2015 Hypothetical


Grayson Allen 3 SO 2016
Brennan Besser 53 FR 2016
Brandon Ingram 14 FR 2016
Amile Jefferson 21 SR 2016
Chase Jeter 2 FR 2016
Matt Jones 13 JR 2016
Luke Kennard 5 FR 2016
Sean Obi 34 SO 2016
Nick Pagliuca 45 JR 2016
Marshall Plumlee 40 SR 2016
Justin Robinson 50 FR 2016
Derryck Thornton 12 FR 2016
Antonio Vrankovic 30 FR 2016
Jabari Parker JR F 2016 Hypothetical
Rodney Hood SR F 2016 Hypothetical
Tyus Jones FR G 2016 Hypothetical
Jahlil Okafor FR C 2016 Hypothetical
Rasheed Sulaimon JR G 2016 Hypothetical
Justise Winslow FR F 2016 Hypothetical

[BluePanda]

This is all irrelevant since most of these players wouldn't have come to Duke if the hypotheticals you listed were still taking up PT.

[Rich]

We all talk about the "might have beens", and decry the one-and-done phenomena that takes players from our team just as they're getting good. Just to annoy myself, I pulled a database from CBS sports for the Duke rosters from 1999 forwards to the present day. I carried over players as "hypothetical" as if everybody had stayed for four years. (I included not just NBA early picks, but also the transfers). Some of these rosters may be larger than the NCAA would have allowed.

I listed, from 1999 to this year, the rosters. I've appended the results to the bottom of this post, but you'll probably prefer to look at the spreadsheet I saved to my website: http://www.level6analytics.com/dbr (http://www.level6analytics.com/dbr/)/ . People are listed either by the team year in the right margin (e.g. "2001"), or, if they left early, but could have stayed for that year as hypothetical (e.g. "2001 Hypothetical").

There are some years that are just crazy good: the 2001 team would have had:

@ Forward: Battier, Carrawell, Nate James, Chris Burgess, Corey Maggette
@ Guard: Mike Dunleavey, Jason Williams, William Avery, Chris Duhon
@ Center: Carlos Boozer, Elton Brand



2003 would look like this:

@Forward: Dahntay Jones, Shavlik Randolf, Shelden Williams, Mike Dunleavy
@Guard: Duhon, Ewing, Redick, and Jason Williams
@ Center: Casey Sanders (I think Shelden might have been here, but the roster lists him at the 'F' position.)

Some years were almost or entirely unaffected. 2004, where we were a decent 31-6, would not have been affected at all. 2010, we would have had Taylor King and Eric Boateng still (whom?)

When we lost a bunch of freshman one year, it's easy to mourn them the next, but we forget about the upperclassmen who should have been there too. For example, in 2015, it's easy to remember Jabari Parker who should have been there competing with Okafor for playing time, but we should also have had Austin Rivers and Michael Gbinje (who should have been seniors), and Rodney Hood, who should have been a junior. (Note: Rodney Hood was listed as a sophomore the first year he played for us, but I believe that something about the transfer process may have not really left him with two years of eligibility as the database implied).

Of course, this season, we could have had Tyus Jones, Jalil Okafor, and Justice Winslow AND Jabari Parker (Junior), Rasheed Sulaimon (Senior), and Rodney Hood. I think we could rested Mason's poor nose and Matt's ankle more.


-Boyce


What's wrong with Mason's nose? :rolleyes:

[DavidBenAkiva]

^ Truth

The more important question, for me, will always be how good would this team have been if Tyus Jones had stuck around and Amile didn't break his foot? Jones might have had an ACC Player of the Year type season, replacing Tyler Ulis as 1st Team All-American. He might have even gone higher in the draft. Meanwhile, Thornton stays a Duke commit but join Jackson, White, Tatum, DeLaurier, and Giles in a super-loaded class of 2016-17. Back-to-back Final Four appearances was totally within reach in a "down" year for college basketball. Oh well. Still beat UVA, Louisville, and UNC in consecutive games and made it to the Sweet 16. Not bad!

[flyingdutchdevil]

^ Truth

The more important question, for me, will always be how good would this team have been if Tyus Jones had stuck around and Amile didn't break his foot? Jones might have had an ACC Player of the Year type season, replacing Tyler Ulis as 1st Team All-American. He might have even gone higher in the draft. Meanwhile, Thornton stays a Duke commit but join Jackson, White, Tatum, DeLaurier, and Giles in a super-loaded class of 2016-17. Back-to-back Final Four appearances was totally within reach in a "down" year for college basketball. Oh well. Still beat UVA, Louisville, and UNC in consecutive games and made it to the Sweet 16. Not bad!

These "what ifs" with Tyus make no sense to me. If Tyus is here this year, it means we didn't win last year. I'll take a natty and a gutted roster the following season rather than having a really good player stick around for a few more seasons.

[Edouble]

I really don't like threads like this.

Many of these players wouldn't have come to Duke if the other players who hypothetically stayed were still on campus. For example, we stopped recruiting Casey Jacobsen, even though he wanted to come to Duke, once we signed Mike Dunleavy. None of these teams would ever have come to fruition.

[Indoor66]

If hop toads had longer legs they wouldn't bump their butts.

[MarkD83]

Boyce,

Thanks for putting this together. I think it is rather informative and confirms what I intuitive knew ever since Duke players declared early for the draft.
The coaching staff and Coach K A) can really recruit amazing players to come to Duke and B) despite our collective angst when players leave early or transfer there are always new players to fill in the gaps.

Taking this list it would be interesting to take a stat from baseball (wins above replacement) and guess at the WAR for players coming in to replace a player that left early or transferred. So what is Austin River's WAR vs Kyrie Irving for example (if that is the correct comparison). Your list gives a little bit of a jump start to an off-season discussion.

[jimsumner]

We also have to assume that Kentucky, Kansas, North Carolina, Arizona et. al. didn't have anyone transfer or leave early for the NBA.

In other words, Andrew Wiggins is still at Kansas and that Anthony Davis/Julian Randle frontcourt was blocking Duke's 2015 title run.

In fact, Kentucky would have had about thirty guys on scholarship this season. :)

[Scorp4me]

Quite a bit of complaining for someone who spent quite a bit of time putting together something with substance for simple discussions sake. All of what has been said is true, but it's a fun exercise none the less. What a team some of those would have been. Can you imagine the games!!! Few schools could come close to matching those teams and even the few that could I don't think could match it on a consistent basis year in and year out. And what a game against those few schools that could! Thanks for the work boyce!

[Henderson]

If this 4-year hypothetical applied to all teams, both the college game and pro game would be a lot better. I'd sure love to watch it. But it would be literally at the expense of a lot of players.

[turnandburn55]

This is all irrelevant since most of these players wouldn't have come to Duke if the hypotheticals you listed were still taking up PT.

Maybe in the later years, but certainly not in the early years. I remember J-Dubs, Dunleavy, and Boozer had all committed well before any of the underclassmen had committed for the draft - which was not a foregone conclusion at the time. I even remembering J-Dubs commenting that he was looking forward to learning the position from Will Avery, which invited a few snickers in Duke quarters.

Similarly, I remember even prior to the end of the 2001 season that we already had a very strong 2003 class - one or two commitments were still outstanding but I specifically recall Redick at least being locked up because everyone was saying "great, just what we need, someone else who can jack up threes". Ahh well, seems like K was right on that one..

[dukelifer]

If this 4-year hypothetical applied to all teams, both the college game and pro game would be a lot better. I'd sure love to watch it. But it would be literally at the expense of a lot of players.

Didn't we watch this in the 70's and early 80's? Both games were better.

[JNort]

Didn't we watch this in the 70's and early 80's? Both games were better.

College game was better but the nba was awful then

[jimsumner]

Maybe in the later years, but certainly not in the early years. I remember J-Dubs, Dunleavy, and Boozer had all committed well before any of the underclassmen had committed for the draft - which was not a foregone conclusion at the time. I even remembering J-Dubs commenting that he was looking forward to learning the position from Will Avery, which invited a few snickers in Duke quarters.

Similarly, I remember even prior to the end of the 2001 season that we already had a very strong 2003 class - one or two commitments were still outstanding but I specifically recall Redick at least being locked up because everyone was saying "great, just what we need, someone else who can jack up threes". Ahh well, seems like K was right on that one..

Boozer didn't sign until spring of his senior year and only after being assured that Brand was going to the NBA. Had Brand come back, Boozer likely would have ended up at UCLA.

J. Williams and Dunleavy did sign in the fall.

Redick did commit early. But everyone knew J. Williams was not going to be around. But there was a fear that Redick and Ewing would be redundant.

[turnandburn55]

Boozer didn't sign until spring of his senior year and only after being assured that Brand was going to the NBA. Had Brand come back, Boozer likely would have ended up at UCLA.

J. Williams and Dunleavy did sign in the fall.

Redick did commit early. But everyone knew J. Williams was not going to be around. But there was a fear that Redick and Ewing would be redundant.

You're right about Boozer. We were pretty pumped at the time about having both Sanders and Boozer with Boozer coming later.

I'd still submit it's realistic to envision a 2001 team with Maggette, Brand, Avery, J-Dubs, Dunleavy, Battier, and Duhon in the absence of early entry, which is pretty epic.

Of course, since we won the natty anyways that year, it's all OBE...

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

College game was better but the nba was awful then

Screen resolution is way better now. :)

I think this is a fun thread. Something to distract from the UNC tip off.

It is amazing to me from two regards:

** The game is SO different than it was 15 years ago. Recruiting must be so much more complicated - trying to anticipate attrition, transfers, etc. Far more than just replacing talent at positions every four years.

** Our recruiting is exceptional. What an astonishing talent pool we have drawn. Historically and today at just a faster rate, we are dang spoiled with talent.

Now then, let's go Hoosiers!

[SoCalDukeFan]

Mike Gbinije would have been interesting.

SoCal

[CDu]

Mike Gbinije would have been interesting.

SoCal

Gbinije would have finished his eligibility last year had he stayed at Duke.

[jimsumner]

Gbinije would have finished his eligibility last year had he stayed at Duke.

And would a senior Gbinije have scared off Winslow?

Darned if I know. But that's one of the flaws with this kind of thinking. Way too many unknowns.

[Saratoga2]

The reality of the situation is that with Amile hurt, we were possibly the 5th best team in the ACC this year. Was that an artifact of learning how to deal with the OAD era of college ball? Having lost Jahlil, Tyus and Justise, we were thin and relying on freshmen to hold down the fort. One important injury and we were competitive but in a way, outclassed by teams that held on to their seniors and upperclassmen. Watching Virginia play shows how far a program can advance with good players with a lot of experience.

I think coach K has recognized the weakness of having to relying mainly on OAD freshmen with uber talents and has this coming year added likes Javin DeLauier, Frank Jackson and Jack White so that with Amile, Matt, Luke, Derryck, Chase and possibly Grayson we will have a nucleus of experienced players and will be able to withstand injuries going forward. By the sound of it Harry Giles and Jayson Tatum will be OAD's.

[Scorp4me]

I disagree that K has only now realized the weakness of relying on one and done players. I think in the beginning he tended to shy away from them. He learned and tried to incorporate one star player, a one and done potential talent, with a core of other talented players. He was able to do that for some time, but I think he along with many were surprised when Jones and Winslow ended up playing themselves into leaving after only a year. I don't think that's something you can always plan for and when you do it should be seen as another example of exceptional coaching or at the very least an exceptional eye for talent.

[BandAlum83]

Hello, Boyce.

It seems early 80s House CC is well represented out here.

[boyce]

What's wrong with Mason's nose? :rolleyes:

I was referring to MARSHALL's nose, broken in the State game. Going through the entire 21 feet of Plumlee's we've had in preparing this list got me confused.

-Boyce

[boyce]

Hello, Boyce.

It seems early 80s House CC is well represented out here.

Who's this?

-Boyce

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

And would a senior Gbinije have scared off Winslow?


Scared off Winslow?? Nothing scares that man.