Phase VII Report: Duke in the West Regionals

[sagegrouse]

The NCAA West Regionals

Not a moment too soon -- here is the Phase VII Report.

Duke, Oregon, Texas A&M and Oklahoma: Nary a Cinderella in sight – the NCAA West Regional shows the advancement of the first four seeds to Anaheim. Texas A&M, of course, required a miracle finish against Northern Iowa and the Oregon Ducks had to mount a surge at the end to defeat St. Joseph’s. Duke, on the other hand, flirted with disaster after roaring out to a 26-point lead in the first half against Yale.

Let’s look at Duke tonight against the Ducks. We’ll post again on Saturday for the regional finals (fingers crossed).

Health: It is what it is. There are two main concerns – Matt Jones is nursing two injured ankles that will slow him on both ends of the court, and the Blue Devils are skating on thin ice, playing only seven players and vulnerable to an injury at any moment.

Defeating the Press: Oregon is a very athletic team and will surely try to force turnovers and wear Duke down with a full-court press. Breaking the press has undoubtedly been a focus of the preparations this week. If Duke can handle it well, open shots and easy baskets await. It will be important for Duke to keep TO’s in single digits.

Matching up Against the Ducks: Oregon has a versatile, athletic roster – everyone scores and hits the boards. Dillon Brooks (6-6) leads in scoring at 16.8 and both rebounds (5.6) and passes the ball (3.1 dimes). Elgin Cook has similar stats. G Tyler Dorsey is the leading three point shooter (41.8 percent). Chris Boucher, tall and thin at 6-10, 200, is the leading shot blocker, but he also likes to put it up from outside. Boucher presents a tough match-up problem, in that we may not want Marshall ranging so far from the basket.

Here are the main questions I see for the game:

Can we protect the ball against the Ducks press? I expect we will and that Brandon will bring the ball up frequently.

How (and how well) will Duke defend the Ducks? A zone seems the obvious choice to limit their drives and keep Marshall in the lane. I expect we will change defenses frequently, as the team seems more and more comfortable on the defensive end of the court. Duke is a strong offensive team but the defense will have to step up.

Can Duke hold its own on the boards? We won against Yale but had a 20-board deficit in rebounding. We’ll need to do much better tonight.

Who is shooting well? Basketball often comes down to which team is making its shots – this is imperative for Duke given the possible disparity on rebounding and maybe defense. As always, we are hoping for a Luke Kennard break-out in a key game, as well as continued all-star performances from Grayson and Brandon.

I am looking to good viewing of a great Duke win at a comfortable time in the Mountain Time Zone. It looks like 10:07 PM in the East.

[Lar77]

The NCAA West Regionals

Not a moment too soon -- here is the Phase VII Report.

Duke, Oregon, Texas A&M and Oklahoma: Nary a Cinderella in sight – the NCAA West Regional shows the advancement of the first four seeds to Anaheim. Texas A&M, of course, required a miracle finish against Northern Iowa and the Oregon Ducks had to mount a surge at the end to defeat St. Joseph’s. Duke, on the other hand, flirted with disaster after roaring out to a 26-point lead in the first half against Yale.

Let’s look at Duke tonight against the Ducks. We’ll post again on Saturday for the regional finals (fingers crossed).

Health: It is what it is. There are two main concerns – Matt Jones is nursing two injured ankles that will slow him on both ends of the court, and the Blue Devils are skating on thin ice, playing only seven players and vulnerable to an injury at any moment.

Defeating the Press: Oregon is a very athletic team and will surely try to force turnovers and wear Duke down with a full-court press. Breaking the press has undoubtedly been a focus of the preparations this week. If Duke can handle it well, open shots and easy baskets await. It will be important for Duke to keep TO’s in single digits.

Matching up Against the Ducks: Oregon has a versatile, athletic roster – everyone scores and hits the boards. Dillon Brooks (6-6) leads in scoring at 16.8 and both rebounds (5.6) and passes the ball (3.1 dimes). Elgin Cook has similar stats. G Tyler Dorsey is the leading three point shooter (41.8 percent). Chris Boucher, tall and thin at 6-10, 200, is the leading shot blocker, but he also likes to put it up from outside. Boucher presents a tough match-up problem, in that we may not want Marshall ranging so far from the basket.

Here are the main questions I see for the game:

Can we protect the ball against the Ducks press? I expect we will and that Brandon will bring the ball up frequently.

How (and how well) will Duke defend the Ducks? A zone seems the obvious choice to limit their drives and keep Marshall in the lane. I expect we will change defenses frequently, as the team seems more and more comfortable on the defensive end of the court. Duke is a strong offensive team but the defense will have to step up.

Can Duke hold its own on the boards? We won against Yale but had a 20-board deficit in rebounding. We’ll need to do much better tonight.

Who is shooting well? Basketball often comes down to which team is making its shots – this is imperative for Duke given the possible disparity on rebounding and maybe defense. As always, we are hoping for a Luke Kennard break-out in a key game, as well as continued all-star performances from Grayson and Brandon.

I am looking to good viewing of a great Duke win at a comfortable time in the Mountain Time Zone. It looks like 10:07 PM in the East.

Thank you for your thoughts Sagegrouse.

My guess is that we will work well against the press. Can't explain Yale, but generally we have done well after some early season bumps. We have ball handlers.

Oregon should be prepped for the Grayson drive and dish to MP3, but less so for drive and kick. Opportunity for Luke.

Rebounding should be even or in our favor. Oregon's bigs seem to like going for the block, which can open up offensive rebounding.

Shooting is always key to these games, especially on the line. We should be rested and not jet-lagged, which will help.

If we stay out of foul trouble in the first half and early second half, we win.

[Saratoga2]

The NCAA West Regionals

Not a moment too soon -- here is the Phase VII Report.




Defeating the Press: Oregon is a very athletic team and will surely try to force turnovers and wear Duke down with a full-court press. Breaking the press has undoubtedly been a focus of the preparations this week. If Duke can handle it well, open shots and easy baskets await. It will be important for Duke to keep TO’s in single digits.

I haven't seen Oregon play, but from what I read they are not a deep team so I am surprised by your comments about their press. They may be athletic but from their roster, they don't seem particularly big with Marshall taller and outweighing anyone on their team. Our guards with the exception of Derryck match up with their size and I doubt if they can match up at all with Brandon.

Matching up Against the Ducks: Oregon has a versatile, athletic roster – everyone scores and hits the boards. Dillon Brooks (6-6) leads in scoring at 16.8 and both rebounds (5.6) and passes the ball (3.1 dimes). Elgin Cook has similar stats. G Tyler Dorsey is the leading three point shooter (41.8 percent). Chris Boucher, tall and thin at 6-10, 200, is the leading shot blocker, but he also likes to put it up from outside. Boucher presents a tough match-up problem, in that we may not want Marshall ranging so far from the basket.

They may be athletic but from their roster, they don't seem particularly big with Marshall taller and outweighing anyone on their team. Our guards with the exception of Derryck match up with their size and I doubt if they can match up at all with Brandon. They have a couple of guys who are 6'10" but the heaviest of those is 225. Why can't Brandon guard Boucher away from the basket?

Here are the main questions I see for the game:

Can we protect the ball against the Ducks press? I expect we will and that Brandon will bring the ball up frequently. Again, it seems from commentaries that Oregon is not deep enough to sustain a press. Maybe I read the wrong info on this but with a less than deep team they may not want to expend the energy to keep pressing us.


Can Duke hold its own on the boards? We won against Yale but had a 20-board deficit in rebounding. We’ll need to do much better tonight. Seems to me that this has been and is a key weak spot for Duke. Heres where we miss Amile greatly.

Who is shooting well? Basketball often comes down to which team is making its shots – this is imperative for Duke given the possible disparity on rebounding and maybe defense. As always, we are hoping for a Luke Kennard break-out in a key game, as well as continued all-star performances from Grayson and Brandon. I agree that Luke is important for us. Not only does he need to be shooting well, but he needs to continue to be encouraged to shoot the ball in the second half when it often looks like coach K relies on Brandon and Grayson while the others are no longer being called on for offense.

I view this game as fairly even and which team can maintain an aggressive attitude, which includes avoiding injuries and foul trouble, will win the game. Remember, the PAC12 is not that strong so coming out of that conference with a great record is a lot easier than playing in the ACC


It looks like 10:07 PM in the East.

I wrote my message internal to the original message

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Thank you for your thoughts Sagegrouse.

My guess is that we will work well against the press. Can't explain Yale, but generally we have done well after some early season bumps. We have ball handlers.

Oregon should be prepped for the Grayson drive and dish to MP3, but less so for drive and kick. Opportunity for Luke.

Rebounding should be even or in our favor. Oregon's bigs seem to like going for the block, which can open up offensive rebounding.

Shooting is always key to these games, especially on the line. We should be rested and not jet-lagged, which will help.

If we stay out of foul trouble in the first half and early second half, we win.

I'd rather play Oregon on 5 days rest than on two days rest, that's for sure. In this regard, the 4 seed might do us some favors.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Awesome that Stage VII even exists for us!

[RPS]

I am looking to good viewing of a great Duke win at a comfortable time in the Mountain Time Zone. It looks like 10:07 PM in the East.
Thanks for the analysis. I will be at the game -- my sixth Duke Sweet 16 game but my first since 1992.

[Monmouth77]

In other pre-game threads posters have mentioned Duke's past struggles against teams with profiles similar to Oregon (say Villanova '09 or Georgetown '10 or Miami (pick a year)) where a team uses its athletes, quickness and ball-handling to spread us out and drive to the rim -- often in a 4 out, 1 in attack.

I have a sense this year that our kryptonite is something different. For one thing, we have quicker guards and better perimeter defenders than in some years past -- Thornton, for one, can hang with and stay in front of even Cat Barber. For another, K is willing to play zone to protect the rim. So I wonder whether, in some ways, we aren't actually better off playing a team like Oregon than a hyper-rebounding team (like A&M might be if they make the E8).

Our worst looking losses this year -- games where I felt like we couldn't catch up -- were the ones against UK, Pitt, and UNC @ Cameron, where we just got devoured on the boards. We did let Notre Dame score too easily at the rim in our home loss to the Irish, but I feel like our defense has improved significantly since January.

I'll guess that we zone Oregon unless that gets us killed on the boards, and that our man D is good enough to switch looks if we need to.

[Billy Dat]

If we stay out of foul trouble in the first half and early second half, we win.

I, too, think foul trouble will be a big factor. I think Dana Altman is very smart and he surely has seen the impact that foul trouble has played in recent losses and close calls. With hobbled Matt Jones likely to draw the Brooks assignment, and Brooks penchant for driving, I think they'll go right at Matt and try and force us to adjust. On the other end, they'll zone and we have to make that zone move and hit shots. They can run and I see them trying to push off long boards. If they want to play fast, I think we can play that way just fine.

Whomever wins the fouls game and the 3s game shall prevail, methinks.

[superdave]

I think the press and pace from the UNCW game is good prep for this one. I agree that Brandon can be key to breaking the press. It would be great to have a quality, error-free effort from Derryck as well.

As for the defensive end, our guys cannot afford any lulls in defensive effort at this point. We will need one of our guards (Grayson most likely) to help Marshall and Brandon on the boards going forward. This is too glaring a weakness for this squad. Opposing coaches will have this pegged as a way to crush Duke. Have to be ready.

At the end of the day, we have more talent than Oregon. We've won tough games. We've had time to rest and prepare. Expectations are high for tonight. Go Duke!

[kAzE]

I hate agreeing with Seth Greenberg, but in his latest video analysis for this game, he noted that we have to get offensive contributions from more than just Grayson and Brandon. This does actually sound like the key to winning this game. I'm not very optimistic that we can win this game on defense. I'm just hoping that our zone can contain them in the paint.

We will need to execute on offense, not turn it over, and shoot well, and that means getting points from Luke and/or Marshall/Derryck/Matt. Any contribution from those guys will help take a little bit more pressure off of our 2 main scorers. Oregon is too athletic and versatile for us to rely on 2 or 3 guys. We won't win if 4 of our players combine for 4 points like in the Yale game.

[DukieinSoCal]

Thank you for your thoughts Sagegrouse.

My guess is that we will work well against the press. Can't explain Yale, but generally we have done well after some early season bumps. We have ball handlers.

Oregon should be prepped for the Grayson drive and dish to MP3, but less so for drive and kick. Opportunity for Luke.

Rebounding should be even or in our favor. Oregon's bigs seem to like going for the block, which can open up offensive rebounding.

Shooting is always key to these games, especially on the line. We should be rested and not jet-lagged, which will help.

If we stay out of foul trouble in the first half and early second half, we win.

I think it makes a big difference when we are trying to protect a big lead vs just playing in the normal flow of the game. With no true PG and the youth of our team, we seem hesitant and indecisive when we are playing from ahead. When we are just playing without restraint we've been a very effective offense most of the season. I think we'll need to attack the press and look to score off of it before they get their defense and shot blockers set up. We have enough ball handlers to do this. And even if we get out to lead in the 2nd half, I hope we still stay aggressive. This team doesn't play stall ball very well as we've seen in a few games this year.
I'll be in the stands cheering on our Blue Devils with fellow alums. I'm nervous as I usually am on big gamedays but I think it's time to break the West Coast curse! We're due. Go Duke! :cool:

[BeachBlueDevil]

The NCAA West Regionals

Not a moment too soon -- here is the Phase VII Report.

Duke, Oregon, Texas A&M and Oklahoma: Nary a Cinderella in sight – the NCAA West Regional shows the advancement of the first four seeds to Anaheim. Texas A&M, of course, required a miracle finish against Northern Iowa and the Oregon Ducks had to mount a surge at the end to defeat St. Joseph’s. Duke, on the other hand, flirted with disaster after roaring out to a 26-point lead in the first half against Yale.

Let’s look at Duke tonight against the Ducks. We’ll post again on Saturday for the regional finals (fingers crossed).

Health: It is what it is. There are two main concerns – Matt Jones is nursing two injured ankles that will slow him on both ends of the court, and the Blue Devils are skating on thin ice, playing only seven players and vulnerable to an injury at any moment.

Defeating the Press: Oregon is a very athletic team and will surely try to force turnovers and wear Duke down with a full-court press. Breaking the press has undoubtedly been a focus of the preparations this week. If Duke can handle it well, open shots and easy baskets await. It will be important for Duke to keep TO’s in single digits.

Matching up Against the Ducks: Oregon has a versatile, athletic roster – everyone scores and hits the boards. Dillon Brooks (6-6) leads in scoring at 16.8 and both rebounds (5.6) and passes the ball (3.1 dimes). Elgin Cook has similar stats. G Tyler Dorsey is the leading three point shooter (41.8 percent). Chris Boucher, tall and thin at 6-10, 200, is the leading shot blocker, but he also likes to put it up from outside. Boucher presents a tough match-up problem, in that we may not want Marshall ranging so far from the basket.

Here are the main questions I see for the game:

Can we protect the ball against the Ducks press? I expect we will and that Brandon will bring the ball up frequently.

How (and how well) will Duke defend the Ducks? A zone seems the obvious choice to limit their drives and keep Marshall in the lane. I expect we will change defenses frequently, as the team seems more and more comfortable on the defensive end of the court. Duke is a strong offensive team but the defense will have to step up.

Can Duke hold its own on the boards? We won against Yale but had a 20-board deficit in rebounding. We’ll need to do much better tonight.

Who is shooting well? Basketball often comes down to which team is making its shots – this is imperative for Duke given the possible disparity on rebounding and maybe defense. As always, we are hoping for a Luke Kennard break-out in a key game, as well as continued all-star performances from Grayson and Brandon.

I am looking to good viewing of a great Duke win at a comfortable time in the Mountain Time Zone. It looks like 10:07 PM in the East.

This team might be shorthanded and shaky upfront without Jefferson. But my concern with this team has always been who is the third scorer on this team? Yes, it should be Kennard but he has had up and down games all season long. I said leading into the Yale game that Kennard needed to get it together and drop 15 in for Duke to win. Duke won and he dropped in 13, which was a valuable 13 seeing as how Duke almost blew that lead. I think tonight he needs to have another solid game and 15 or more from him would be a welcomed sight.

[sagegrouse]

I wrote my message internal to the original message


Saratoga insert comments:
I haven't seen Oregon play, but from what I read they are not a deep team so I am surprised by your comments about their press. They may be athletic but from their roster, they don't seem particularly big with Marshall taller and outweighing anyone on their team. Our guards with the exception of Derryck match up with their size and I doubt if they can match up at all with Brandon.

They may be athletic but from their roster, they don't seem particularly big with Marshall taller and outweighing anyone on their team. Our guards with the exception of Derryck match up with their size and I doubt if they can match up at all with Brandon. They have a couple of guys who are 6'10" but the heaviest of those is 225. Why can't Brandon guard Boucher away from the basket?

In the Holy Cross game, it was men against boys, and in the comeback against St. Joe's, Oregon was physically the much stronger team. I think the Ducks play bigger than their listed heights and weights. Shooting, free throws and avoidance of turnovers are keys for Duke.

At the same time, I fully expect to see a full-court press from Oregon, even if intermittently -- and definitely if the Ducks are behind in the second half.

No problem with Brandon guarding Boucher, but I hope Marshall is quick enough to stay with Elgin Cook or one of the other forwards (Matt Jones, I expect, will guard Dillon Brooks).

Thanks for your comments -- Sage

[Doria]

Honestly, I don't think the pre-game assessment is much different than any of the tougher games this season. We need to stay out of foul trouble, we need production from people besides Grayson and Brandon, we need to limit TO's, and we need to have at least workmanlike defense (rather than a full defensive collapse--that probably goes for rebounding, as well).

We do not need to be fantastic at all of these things--and I can pretty much guarantee we won't be--but we need to be at least "okay" in most of them. That will allow us a slight margin of error that will hopefully be the difference allowing us to win. Obviously, I'd love for it to be Duke going away, but I don't think anyone here realistically believes that will happen. I expect it to be a close game, and I think (hope) our game plan and preparation will make a huge difference.

The PAC-12 was terrible this year, but Oregon is not a fluke. We'll need to take them seriously and play our best basketball. I have faith we can do that. Go Duke!

[rasputin]

The PAC-12 was terrible this year, but Oregon is not a fluke. We'll need to take them seriously and play our best basketball. I have faith we can do that. Go Duke!

The PAC-12 wasn't terrible this year. Sir Charles told me so.

[GoDucks349]

The NCAA West Regionals

Not a moment too soon -- here is the Phase VII Report.

Duke, Oregon, Texas A&M and Oklahoma: Nary a Cinderella in sight – the NCAA West Regional shows the advancement of the first four seeds to Anaheim. Texas A&M, of course, required a miracle finish against Northern Iowa and the Oregon Ducks had to mount a surge at the end to defeat St. Joseph’s. Duke, on the other hand, flirted with disaster after roaring out to a 26-point lead in the first half against Yale.

Let’s look at Duke tonight against the Ducks. We’ll post again on Saturday for the regional finals (fingers crossed).

Health: It is what it is. There are two main concerns – Matt Jones is nursing two injured ankles that will slow him on both ends of the court, and the Blue Devils are skating on thin ice, playing only seven players and vulnerable to an injury at any moment.

Defeating the Press: Oregon is a very athletic team and will surely try to force turnovers and wear Duke down with a full-court press. Breaking the press has undoubtedly been a focus of the preparations this week. If Duke can handle it well, open shots and easy baskets await. It will be important for Duke to keep TO’s in single digits.

Matching up Against the Ducks: Oregon has a versatile, athletic roster – everyone scores and hits the boards. Dillon Brooks (6-6) leads in scoring at 16.8 and both rebounds (5.6) and passes the ball (3.1 dimes). Elgin Cook has similar stats. G Tyler Dorsey is the leading three point shooter (41.8 percent). Chris Boucher, tall and thin at 6-10, 200, is the leading shot blocker, but he also likes to put it up from outside. Boucher presents a tough match-up problem, in that we may not want Marshall ranging so far from the basket.

Here are the main questions I see for the game:

Can we protect the ball against the Ducks press? I expect we will and that Brandon will bring the ball up frequently.

How (and how well) will Duke defend the Ducks? A zone seems the obvious choice to limit their drives and keep Marshall in the lane. I expect we will change defenses frequently, as the team seems more and more comfortable on the defensive end of the court. Duke is a strong offensive team but the defense will have to step up.

Can Duke hold its own on the boards? We won against Yale but had a 20-board deficit in rebounding. We’ll need to do much better tonight.

Who is shooting well? Basketball often comes down to which team is making its shots – this is imperative for Duke given the possible disparity on rebounding and maybe defense. As always, we are hoping for a Luke Kennard break-out in a key game, as well as continued all-star performances from Grayson and Brandon.

I am looking to good viewing of a great Duke win at a comfortable time in the Mountain Time Zone. It looks like 10:07 PM in the East.

Pretty good summary: Couple comments, curious why no mention of Bell or Benjamin for the Ducks. Ignoring Bells shot blocking is a big mistake. Benjamin can really hurt opponents in a lot of ways offensively and defensively, he's great coming of the bench. Also, I wouldn't expect very many easy buckets off the Oregon press. Just a short shot clock. It's really not about forcing turnovers with steals as much as forcing a team to take a hurried shot due to a shot clock running out.

[BandAlum83]

Honestly, I don't think the pre-game assessment is much different than any of the tougher games this season. We need to stay out of foul trouble, we need production from people besides Grayson and Brandon, we need to limit TO's, and we need to have at least workmanlike defense (rather than a full defensive collapse--that probably goes for rebounding, as well).

We do not need to be fantastic at all of these things--and I can pretty much guarantee we won't be--but we need to be at least "okay" in most of them. That will allow us a slight margin of error that will hopefully be the difference allowing us to win. Obviously, I'd love for it to be Duke going away, but I don't think anyone here realistically believes that will happen. I expect it to be a close game, and I think (hope) our game plan and preparation will make a huge difference.

The PAC-12 was terrible this year, but Oregon is not a fluke. We'll need to take them seriously and play our best basketball. I have faith we can do that. Go Duke!

I'm pretty sure this is the part that confuses Roy.