Sparty loses

[grossbus]

Without even playing the cheaters.

[dukelifer]

Without even playing the cheaters.


Should be loses.

Wow. That is a shocker. Big 10 losing big!

[Doria]

I feel that "lises" is kind of appropriate to the moment, too.

[Wahoo2000]

My Hoos are all out of excuses now. MUST get to a final four this year.

[wsb3]

Wow..& start to finish. MSU was not just a #2 seed that many thought should have been a #1 they were picked by a lot if not most of the 'experts' to be in the final four & many picked them to win it all.

Wow. The Madness of March.

[Atlanta Duke]

I hope for the East Lansing police Sparty is on spring break

[duke4ever19]

I feel like this was a bigger loss than Duke's Lehigh loss.

The Spartys were popular favorites to make the Final Four, while we were a popular pick to not even make the Sweet 16 (what else is new?).

[COYS]

I feel like this was a bigger loss than Duke's Lehigh loss.

They were heavy favorites to make the Final Four, while we were a popular pick to not even make the Sweet 16 (what else is new?).

This was clearly a bigger upset than Duke's loss to Lehigh. KenPom 76 beats KenPom 20 with a starter out injured. Surprising, yes but honestly not shocking.

This was KenPom 123 beating healthy KenPom 3 (and they were not far away from being KenPom 2).

Serious question, was this the biggest NCAAT upset of all time? It's bigger than any previous 15 over 2 upset I can think of as none of the previous 2's that lost were as strong as Sparty this season. And MTSU wasn't even a particularly strong 15. In fact, they are probably below average for a 15.

[tbyers11]

I feel like this was a bigger loss than Duke's Lehigh loss.

The Spartys were popular favorites to make the Final Four, while we were a popular pick to not even make the Sweet 16 (what else is new?).

Agree. This was by far the biggest first-round upset in the history of the NCAA tournament. As mentioned, Michigan St, despite a 2 seed, was either the betting favorite or second behind Kansas.

I don't remember any of the other 2 seeds to lose (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Men%27s_Division_I_Basketball_Championship_up sets) being one of the 2-3 favorites to win it all.

[Turk]

Agreed, much more of a surprise than Duke's Lehigh loss. Never saw Sparty losing in Round 1, especially with both Valentine and Izzo. No idea how MTSU did it. MTSU had some upsets in the past, but that was a long time ago...

[wsb3]

I feel like this was a bigger loss than Duke's Lehigh loss.

The Spartys were popular favorites to make the Final Four, while we were a popular pick to not even make the Sweet 16 (what else is new?).

I was thinking the same thing. Spartans were 16.5 point favorites & it made it the 4th biggest upset in the last 20 years based on that.

I certainly did not pick our Duke team to make it to the final four that year. Too vulnerable..too bad on D...

[Wahoo2000]

This was clearly a bigger upset than Duke's loss to Lehigh. KenPom 76 beats KenPom 20 with a starter out injured. Surprising, yes but honestly not shocking.

This was KenPom 123 beating healthy KenPom 3 (and they were not far away from being KenPom 2).

Serious question, was this the biggest NCAAT upset of all time? It's bigger than any previous 15 over 2 upset I can think of as none of the previous 2's that lost were as strong as Sparty this season. And MTSU wasn't even a particularly strong 15. In fact, they are probably below average for a 15.

Absolutely. Coming into today, MSU was the consensus #2 vegas favorite just behind Kansas. I can't ever think of a time when one of the previously upset 2-seeds was one of the top 2 or 3 favorites odds-wise to win it all.

You could argue other upsets were "bigger" based on things like the FIRST time a 2 ever beat a 15..... but I don't know. From a pure "how good was the team that lost supposed to be" standpoint...... this has to be the biggest 1st round upset ever.

[grossbus]

amazing that sparty never led!!!

[madscavenger]

Wow. That is a shocker. Big 10 losing big!

Don't you mean BIG?


I guess Mid 10 will do.

[Doria]

This was clearly a bigger upset than Duke's loss to Lehigh. KenPom 76 beats KenPom 20 with a starter out injured. Surprising, yes but honestly not shocking.

This was KenPom 123 beating healthy KenPom 3 (and they were not far away from being KenPom 2).

Serious question, was this the biggest NCAAT upset of all time? It's bigger than any previous 15 over 2 upset I can think of as none of the previous 2's that lost were as strong as Sparty this season. And MTSU wasn't even a particularly strong 15. In fact, they are probably below average for a 15.

I found this list, but I don't know how accurate it is, and I also don't know how you compare some of the historical upsets to those that take place in the expanded field: http://www.si.com/college-basketball/photos/2014/03/21/biggest-tournament-upsets/25

Certainly, though, this is the biggest upset I can easily recall (in terms of seeding/ranking).

[dukelifer]

I feel like this was a bigger loss than Duke's Lehigh loss.

The Spartys were popular favorites to make the Final Four, while we were a popular pick to not even make the Sweet 16 (what else is new?).

Much bigger and perhaps worth a tee shirt. Time will tell if Middle Tennessee's best player will be an NBA starter.

[75Crazie]

When did Hampton St beat Kansas? That's the one game I can think of that might rival this one, and I believe that one was also a 2-15 game. I don't remember how close Kansas was that year to being a 1 seed.

[BD80]

I hope for the East Lansing police Sparty is on spring break

Nope that was last week. So they are "rested" up to hoist couches onto the various bonfires that might spontaneously ignite.

[Acymetric]

Contrarian view here, but while this is surprising it's hard for me to buy it as the biggest upset in history. I suppose it depends on your view of MSU...personally I thought MSU and the entire Big 10 were overrated, didn't have any big 10 team making the sweet 16. Maybe I was just so wrong that I ended up being right? But I prefer to focus on the "right" part.

[hsheffield]

KABOOM!!

(the sound of my bracket exploding)

[blazindw]

When did Hampton St beat Kansas? That's the one game I can think of that might rival this one, and I believe that one was also a 2-15 game. I don't remember how close Kansas was that year to being a 1 seed.

You are thinking of Hampton over Iowa State, and that was in 2001. That was a good year, maybe we should duplicate that tournament run. :)

[MChambers]

This was clearly a bigger upset than Duke's loss to Lehigh. KenPom 76 beats KenPom 20 with a starter out injured. Surprising, yes but honestly not shocking.

This was KenPom 123 beating healthy KenPom 3 (and they were not far away from being KenPom 2).

Serious question, was this the biggest NCAAT upset of all time? It's bigger than any previous 15 over 2 upset I can think of as none of the previous 2's that lost were as strong as Sparty this season. And MTSU wasn't even a particularly strong 15. In fact, they are probably below average for a 15.
To my mind, it's definitely the biggest.

[94duke]

You could make an argument for 15 seed University of Richmond upsetting 2 seed Syracuse in 1991.
1. First 15 seed to beat a 2 seed.
2. Syracuse won the Big East regular season that year.
3. Syracuse was AP #7 to start the tourney. They were #4 entering the Big East tourney, but they lost in their first game.
4. There was less parity back then, so the mid-majors were not considered to be as strong.

But Richmond had already started building their reputation as a giant killer by then. In 1988 they went to the sweet 16 by knocking off Indiana (87 Natl Champs) and Ga Tech.

Richmond probably gets my vote, but Sparty's upset is pretty huge. In 10 years people may see this one in a different light.

[wsb3]

You could make an argument for 15 seed University of Richmond upsetting 2 seed Syracuse in 1991.
1. First 15 seed to beat a 2 seed.
2. Syracuse won the Big East regular season that year.
3. Syracuse was AP #7 to start the tourney. They were #4 entering the Big East tourney, but they lost in their first game.
4. There was less parity back then, so the mid-majors were not considered to be as strong.


Good point & I don't want to overstate this one. Only thing I would say is I don't think anyone was picking Syracuse to win it all in 91 as their was this undefeated team UNLV that was destined to win it all..

Oh wait they got upset also. :)

Lots of people were picking MSU to be there at the end & I still think they deserved a #1 seed.

My first thought like many have stated was this was bigger than Lehigh..


Little Izzo interview. Hard stuff.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2016/3/18/11265450/tom-izzo-emotional-michigan-state-loss-upset-middle-tennessee

[Kdogg]

When did Hampton St beat Kansas? That's the one game I can think of that might rival this one, and I believe that one was also a 2-15 game. I don't remember how close Kansas was that year to being a 1 seed.

2001. It was Hampton vs Iowa state.

I still feel Richmond vs Cuse was a bigger upset. Back then the difference between a 2 and a 15 was like an ocean. Today it's more on the scale of a lake moving closer to a large pond.

[Doria]

Little Izzo interview. Hard stuff.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2016/3/18/11265450/tom-izzo-emotional-michigan-state-loss-upset-middle-tennessee

Izzo seems to be a good guy, and he was very gracious after what had to be a devastating loss. I felt bad for him, as well, watching that interview. (That pity is in no way in conflict with my corollary though that it was a feel-good victory by MTSU.)

Also, even though I give Valentine props for his Spider-Man quote, I don't think the loss was even remotely all his responsibility. He didn't have a good game, but he also didn't have enough help out there. Still, he was gracious in defeat, though clearly disappointed and upset.

[Duke79UNLV77]

I'd put out loss to Mercer as a bigger upset than our loss to Lehigh. Kelly was hurt against Lehigh, and McCollum's on his way to being an NBA all-star. Mercer didn't have any future stars to carry them. Meanwhile, we had Jabari, scoring over 20 a game since no longer being restricted, Hood, another very good NBA player, Cook, and others.

Still, I was even more surprised by the game today.

[Pghdukie]

The old analogy strikes again - MADNESS !!

[75Crazie]

You are thinking of Hampton over Iowa State, and that was in 2001. That was a good year, maybe we should duplicate that tournament run. :)
Yep, that was it, my bad ... and I'm guessing Iowa St was not a 2 seed. OK, my vote goes to MTSU over MSU as biggest upset (bigger than Richmond, because Richmond had done it before, as a slightly higher seed).

[wsb3]

I'd put out loss to Mercer as a bigger upset than our loss to Lehigh. Kelly was hurt against Lehigh, and McCollum's on his way to being an NBA all-star. Mercer didn't have any future stars to carry them. Meanwhile, we had Jabari, scoring over 20 a game since no longer being restricted, Hood, another very good NBA player, Cook, and others.

Still, I was even more surprised by the game today.

I remember without seeing Mercer previously reading that there first 6 players were Seniors & I had a bad feeling. Yes I understand the NBA analogy but when you are talking an 18 year old like Jabari vs 22-23 year old men it sure makes a difference. That is where the NBA analogy does not hold as much for me. Like Coach K said yesterday..We have three players that are eighteen years old but a twenty three year old (Marshall) is who made the difference in the game.

[COYS]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/michigan-state-and-the-biggest-ncaa-tournament-upsets-ever/

Nate Silver argues that Sparty was the best team to have lost in the first round but that Norfolk State over Missouri a few years back was the least likely based on team strength. It's an interesting list, actually. Lehigh over Duke is nowhere to be found on the list but Mercer over Duke makes it, lending credence to those of us who think that was a much bigger surprise.

[DukieInKansas]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/michigan-state-and-the-biggest-ncaa-tournament-upsets-ever/

Nate Silver argues that Sparty was the best team to have lost in the first round but that Norfolk State over Missouri a few years back was the least likely based on team strength. It's an interesting list, actually. Lehigh over Duke is nowhere to be found on the list but Mercer over Duke makes it, lending credence to those of us who think that was a much bigger surprise.

I remember being happy that Missouri lost that day as it was after the Duke early exit. At least around here, that made the news more than the Duke loss so I didn't have to hear about it all the time. Thank you, Mizzou.

[subzero02]

This was clearly a bigger upset than Duke's loss to Lehigh. KenPom 76 beats KenPom 20 with a starter out injured. Surprising, yes but honestly not shocking.

This was KenPom 123 beating healthy KenPom 3 (and they were not far away from being KenPom 2).

Serious question, was this the biggest NCAAT upset of all time? It's bigger than any previous 15 over 2 upset I can think of as none of the previous 2's that lost were as strong as Sparty this season. And MTSU wasn't even a particularly strong 15. In fact, they are probably below average for a 15.

I brought up the the kenpom ranking disparity in the regional thread... I was wondering what was the biggest kenpom upset of all time. #123 over #3 has got to be up there.

[throatybeard]

FWIW, here are FiveThirtyEight's pre-game (1R, not play-in) win-expectation percentages for the "wilder" double-digit seed victors.

Middle Tennessee - 5%
Arkansas-Little Rock - 15%
Hawaii - 17%
SF Austin 19%
Northern Iowa - 30%
Yale - 39%

Lo and behold, Yale wasn't all that crazy.

They project Michigan State's loss and Virginia's win (and other things) propelled Virginia from 10% to win the tournament to 13%.

Duke is still around 2%

[DUKIE V(A)]

Yet another reminder of how difficult it is to win this tournament. To have done it 5 times in 25 years ... We are so blessed.

[Reilly]

1991: Richmond ended up 117th best team and beat #16 Syracuse, with a 15 diff in SRS: http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/seasons/1991-ratings.html

2016: MTSU is now 132nd best team and beat #2 MSU, with a 21 diff in SRS: http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/seasons/2016-ratings.html

[Reilly]

Yet another reminder of how difficult it is to win this tournament. To have done it 5 times in 25 years ... We are so blessed.

1991: wins by 2 (UNLV) and 7 (KU)
1992: wins by 1 (UK) and 3 (Indiana)
2001: all wins by double digits
2010: wins by 7 (Baylor) and 2 (Butler)
2015: wins by 6 (Utah) and 5 (Wisconsin)

Wanted to see the single-digit tourney victories in the champ years -- never more than 2 per year.

We had one on Thursday, meaning we only have one more nail-biter this year!

[uh_no]

I brought up the the kenpom ranking disparity in the regional thread... I was wondering what was the biggest kenpom upset of all time. #123 over #3 has got to be up there.

doubtful. just go look back at his week in reviews. 200-300 ranked teams beat teams in the teens "all the time"

[BD80]

1991: wins by 2 (UNLV) and 7 (KU)
1992: wins by 1 (UK) and 3 (Indiana)
2001: all wins by double digits
2010: wins by 7 (Baylor) and 2 (Butler)
2015: wins by 6 (Utah) and 5 (Wisconsin)

Wanted to see the single-digit tourney victories in the champ years -- never more than 2 per year.

We had one on Thursday, meaning we only have one more nail-biter this year!

Every champion runs his own race

[devildeac]

While looking at the Raleigh N&O this AM there was a short column that noted 99.1% of the folks participating in the Yahoo brackets picked MSU to win this game. :eek:

[Reilly]

Every champion runs his own race

All running their own race, but the most common race in recent history seems to involve two single-digit wins.

Since 2000:

No single-digit win margins: UNC09, Duke01, MichState00
1 single-digit win margin: UF06
2 single-digit win margins: Duke15, UK12, Duke10, KU08, UConn04, Syr03, MD02
3 single-digit win margins: UL13, UConn11, UNC05
4 single-digit win margins: UConn14, UF07

Since 2000, no champion had a single-digit win in its first tourney game (I think).


2015 Duke: 6, 5
2014 UConn: 8, 5, 6, 6
2013 UL: 8, 4, 6
2012 UK: 8, 8
2011 UConn, 7, 2, 1
2010 Duke: 7, 2
2009 UNC: all wins by double digits
2008 KU: 2, 7
2007 UF: 7, 8, 8, 9
2006 UF: 4
2005 UNC: 1, 6, 5
2004 UConn: 1, 9
2003 Syracuse: 1, 3
2002 Maryland: 8, 9
2001 Duke: all wins by double digits
2000 Mich State: all wins by double digits

[tbyers11]

While looking at the Raleigh N&O this AM there was a short column that noted 99.1% of the folks participating in the Yahoo brackets picked MSU to win this game. :eek:

ESPN posted that 97.8% of their brackets had MSU winning first round AND 22.3% of their Challenge brackets had MSU winning it all. That's a lot of busted brackets

[blazindw]

Yep, that was it, my bad ... and I'm guessing Iowa St was not a 2 seed. OK, my vote goes to MTSU over MSU as biggest upset (bigger than Richmond, because Richmond had done it before, as a slightly higher seed).

Hampton over Iowa State was indeed a 15 over a 2 seed.

As for evidence that this was the biggest upset of all time, Sparty because the first 2 seed that had spent time at #1 in the AP poll during the season to lose to a 15 seed. They were also the de-facto 5th 1 seed, picked on 22.3% of ESPN brackets to win it all (only Kansas is picked to win on more brackets). This also doesn't count the number of brackets that had them in their title game (like I did) or their Final Four. This is without a doubt the biggest bracket busting upset of all time.

[AustinDevil]

I like Izzo, but I'm also glad to see a no-win, one-loss NCAA result this year reduce his all-time winning percentage in the tourney to about 71.9%, whereas I think K is a bit over 77% through this year's first round. The chances of Izzo finishing his career with a higher NCAA win percentage than K take a major hit.

[BD80]

I like Izzo, but I'm also glad to see a no-win, one-loss NCAA result this year reduce his all-time winning percentage in the tourney to about 71.9%, whereas I think K is a bit over 77% through this year's first round. The chances of Izzo finishing his career with a higher NCAA win percentage than K take a major hit.

As much as I like Izzo, there was a bit of a trend toward praising him as the best tournament coach, not necessarily directly comparing him to Coach K, but dripping with implication.

[COYS]

As much as I like Izzo, there was a bit of a trend toward praising him as the best tournament coach, not necessarily directly comparing him to Coach K, but dripping with implication.

I feel like the law of averages applies to coaches once they've made the tournament a lot of times. I mean, K's record was insane through the 94 season. Was K really any worse of a coach from 02-09? Or from 11-14? On the other hand, K has been ruthlessly efficient in his last 4 final four appearances, winning the title in 3 out of the last 4. He only won 2 in all of his other appearances. At this point, he has coached over 100 NCAAT games. Crazy stuff is bound to happen in a single elimination format. Izzo won't catch K in total appearances, but he's also getting up there. It's about time something crazy happened to him.