MBB: Duke v. UNC by the Sea, Thu Mar 17, 12:15 CBS

[-jk]

I hear they press...

-jk

[OldPhiKap]

I hear they press...

-jk

Should be a battle. Go Duke!

[cbarry]

Yes!! Early game. Thankful not to have a 10pm game! Hopefully if we win, our second round game will be early as well.

[SCMatt33]

So it's an interesting matchup with UNC Wilmington. So according to KenPom, over the last 5 games, they've used a predominantly small lineup, with 4 guys 6-5 or under and less than 200 lbs on the court 70% of the time. I haven't watched too many games, but they statistically seem to be a dribble drive kind of offense, with a lot of two point field goals, but mostly guard oriented scoring. That would set up well to either play a more passive man D with our length able to bother them, or even set up the zone given that they aren't a particularly great 3 point team at 34.1%. I also don't see anyone on their team who could even hope to guard Ingram, so hopefully he doesn't have an off night.

Now, I don't want to look ahead too much as we all know one game at a time, but if we're lucky enough to win Thursday and Baylor is lucky enough to beat Yale, that would be quite an interesting matchup. On the one hand, I see no way that we keep up with Gathers and Prince on the boards. On the other hand, IMHO, rule #1 of playing Duke is "you don't zone Duke" so we'll see.

Also, despite the noon tip, I'm quite glad to be playing in Providence over Denver or Spokane.

EDIT: I think I screwed up something because I think I edited as someone moved this to the game thread over the region thread as I was editing, but anyway, I forgot the best stat in Duke's favor, UNCW is the second worst team in D1 at keeping opponents off the free throw line. Great news for Grayson!

[Henderson]

Duke has been placed in the West Regional 5 times since 1984, and we've never won the region. Another barrier to demolish.

[NM Duke Fan]

That start time is tricky for fans, hopefully we won't hear stories about Duke fans losing their jobs!

Hope to see both Marshall and Brandon dominate, using their power and size respecively.

A key question is: How quick are their guards? That is always my concern with small schools, it seems that very often they have small guards that have little jets strapped to their backs, and they penetrate all too easily. Thornton of course can stay in front of most guards, if he stays out of foul trouble!

[arnie]

Should be a battle. Go Duke!

Opening line only 9.5

[duke4ever19]

Opening line only 9.5

The spread is even closer for two other 4-Seeds: No. 4 California (-6.5) vs. No. 13 Hawaii, followed by No. 4 Iowa State (-7.5) vs. Wisconsin-Green Bay.

Also of interest, two 3-Seeds with slimmer margins: WVU (-7)vs. No. 14 Stephen F. Austin and Utah (-8.5) vs. Fresno State.

I have WVU going deep in the tournament, so -7 is a bit surprising.

[KandG]

John Gasaway at ESPN, a very level-headed and analytically inclined columnist, says Duke is one of the coldest teams heading into the tournament:

"Duke is depleted and defensively inept. The wait for Amile Jefferson turned out to be futile (well, at least until next season), and the Blue Devils simply have not been able to defend the rim with their available personnel. Give Mike Krzyzewski credit for churning out yet another outstanding offense, but the past tournament history of Duke teams with questions on defense is not encouraging."


Also on the list of coldest teams: Iowa, USC, Providence, Iowa State, Colorado, Oregon State, Notre Dame, Texas Tech.

UNC is third on his list of the hottest teams. Fortunately, Kentucky isn't far behind.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/14964278/meet-10-hottest-10-coldest-teams-2016-ncaa-tournament-field

[Kedsy]

...but the past tournament history of Duke teams with questions on defense is not encouraging."


Well, all the way back in 2015 we entered the tournament with lots of questions on defense. I guess reasonable minds can differ, but personally I found the results plenty encouraging.

[duke09hms]

Well, all the way back in 2015 we entered the tournament with lots of questions on defense. I guess reasonable minds can differ, but personally I found the results plenty encouraging.

Anyone remember what we were in Kenpom defense entering the tournament last year? We are #110 this year.

We were #81 and #116 in 2012 and 2014. Granted those are post-tourney ratings but since we only played 1 game, I don't know how much they would have changed. Interestingly 2007, we were #7.

[Kedsy]

Anyone remember what we were in Kenpom defense entering the tournament last year? We are #110 this year.

We were #81 and #116 in 2012 and 2014. Granted those are post-tourney ratings but since we only played 1 game, I don't know how much they would have changed. Interestingly 2007, we were #7.

Before the tournament, we were #57 last season. Also pre-tournament, we were #102 in 2014 and #62 in 2012. Even one game can change it a lot, apparently.

[KandG]

Anyone remember what we were in Kenpom defense entering the tournament last year? We are #110 this year.

We were #81 and #116 in 2012 and 2014. Granted those are post-tourney ratings but since we only played 1 game, I don't know how much they would have changed. Interestingly 2007, we were #7.

According to this article (http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2015/04/01/how-duke-fixed-its-defense-in-the-ncaa-tournament/) (which nicely explains how dramatically our defense improved on the way to last year's title), Duke was 60th in Kenpom heading into the 2015 tournament. By the time the team started the Final Four, they had jumped up to 18th defensively.

I would love to believe (and am still hoping) this year's team can show that same improvement in concentration and attention to detail defensively starting this weekend (and rest is always a good thing), but I think the thinness of this roster and the physical limitations are a bit more daunting. Curious to see if Jeter and Obi will get the opportunity to help in that regard.

[TruBlu]

Get your earplugs ready, or start exercising your mute button finger. Len Elmore on the broadcast team.

[SCMatt33]

Get your earplugs ready, or start exercising your mute button finger. Len Elmore on the broadcast team.

It could be worse...we didn't get Gottlieb.

[wsb3]

No earth shattering news here. I have seen UNCW twice in person, maybe three times on tv. Yes they press..a lot.
Coach has done an amazing turn around here in two seasons. They were picked last his first year & they finished tied for first. Tied for first again this season.

They are a little thin in the post as well & I could see Marshall getting the best of that situation. No earth shattering news here as he is a match up problem for about any team but if Ingram is on I just don't see them having anyone to guard him & I could see foul trouble for them in trying to guard Ingram & Grayson. I also think Ingram will be key in beating the press.

As stated before in another thread they have a ton of heart & don't relax if we have a lead. They keep coming & have several come from behind wins. They were down 20 to Hofstra (Co Regular Season Champ) in the second half & won.

[Channing]

I also think Ingram will be key in beating the press.


I am guessing we will see this early and often. I think it was the UL game where Brandon was the primary ball handler against the press. He can really neuter the effectiveness of a press by looking right over the top.

[jjasper0729]

It seems all the talking heads from SI to ESPN to CBS have this game as the upset special in the West Region. Their argument is that they have more depth and their press will wear us down. Plus the depth they have will get us into foul trouble as well. Not sure I see this. We will probably be getting back on D quicker and trying to make them take outside shots which isn't their strength and we can drive and go to the line as they foul a LOT.

[nocilla]

So what are the viewing options for our game? CBS has the game, do they stream an online feed? The ncaa sites are blocked here at work so I can't find the info.

[Indoor66]

It could be worse...we didn't get Gottlieb.

...or Bilas.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

It seems all the talking heads from SI to ESPN to CBS have this game as the upset special in the West Region. Their argument is that they have more depth and their press will wear us down. Plus the depth they have will get us into foul trouble as well. Not sure I see this. We will probably be getting back on D quicker and trying to make them take outside shots which isn't their strength and we can drive and go to the line as they foul a LOT.

Thank goodness the game isn't decided by a vote of talking heads.

After the week Duke has had, no way they come out flat. K will have our boys ready to play and with plans to play the following weekend.

If we play our game, we will be fine.

[NM Duke Fan]

So what are the viewing options for our game? CBS has the game, do they stream an online feed? The ncaa sites are blocked here at work so I can't find the info.

When I looked at the CBS site last night, the way I read it was that all the games will be available online on CBS: "you can watch every game on NCAA March Madness Live."

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25515940/march-madness-tv-schedule-how-to-watch-live-stream-tip-times

[SCMatt33]

When I looked at the CBS site last night, the way I read it was that all the games will be available online on CBS: "you can watch every game on NCAA March Madness Live."

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25515940/march-madness-tv-schedule-how-to-watch-live-stream-tip-times

A quick caveat to add to this. Games on TBS, TNT, and TruTV require a cable login. Luckily, Duke's game is on CBS so will be freely available for all.

[rtnorthrup]

This game definitely has me worried. It has a lot of the same earmarks as 2014 against Mercer. That isnt to say we wont win, but this is not going to be a stroll.

It will be the first game of Round 2. I hate the early games. The pre-game prep is completely different and the atmosphere in the gym can be non-existent.

I'm wondering if we will see the 2-3 zone and the 1-3-1 defenses. We played zone primarily against Notre Dame. UNC-W seems to be guard heavy, but not necessarily 3-pt heavy. We have trouble staying in front of quick guards. Plus the zone has the effect of slowing the game down, which UNC-W wont like. One of the best ways to stop a pressing team is to keep them from scoring the basketball.

I would love for this to be the game that Matt Jones re-finds his legs. We need his upperclass leadership on the floor.

[arnie]

This game definitely has me worried. It has a lot of the same earmarks as 2014 against Mercer. That isnt to say we wont win, but this is not going to be a stroll.

It will be the first game of Round 2. I hate the early games. The pre-game prep is completely different and the atmosphere in the gym can be non-existent.

I'm wondering if we will see the 2-3 zone and the 1-3-1 defenses. We played zone primarily against Notre Dame. UNC-W seems to be guard heavy, but not necessarily 3-pt heavy. We have trouble staying in front of quick guards. Plus the zone has the effect of slowing the game down, which UNC-W wont like. One of the best ways to stop a pressing team is to keep them from scoring the basketball.

I would love for this to be the game that Matt Jones re-finds his legs. We need his upperclass leadership on the floor.

Paranoid Arnie compares this game to the Belmont game. Henderson saved us at the end. Hopefully Ingram or Allen or other can wil us thru.

[NM Duke Fan]

Paranoid Arnie compares this game to the Belmont game. Henderson saved us at the end. Hopefully Ingram or Allen or other can wil us thru.

By conrtrast I have a good feeling about this game, partially due to the extended rest, which this team so very much needed. They were emotionally and physically tired, which showed up strongly in the last 10 minutes of their last game.

From my perspective the "starting 6" for Duke can compete with any team in the field when they have sufficient energy to play hard to the end, and I have no doubt the staff will also have them at an optimal level of focus.

I am looking for more like an 18 point victory ...

[DavidBenAkiva]

By conrtrast I have a good feeling about this game, partially due to the extended rest, which this team so very much needed. They were emotionally and physically tired, which showed up strongly in the last 10 minutes of their last game.

From my perspective the "starting 6" for Duke can compete with any team in the field when they have sufficient energy to play hard to the end, and I have no doubt the staff will also have them at an optimal level of focus.

I am looking for more like an 18 point victory ...

I am feeling cautiously optimistic about this game, too. A couple of random thoughts I've had since last night:


Duke doesn't turn the ball over and has many ball handlers and options to beat the press
Marshall and Brandon are not going to be easy for them to guard
Duke has shown defensive intensity this season (which never happened in 2014) - they improved significantly during the toughest stretch of the season, winning against Louisville, Virginia, and North Carolina
The tournament provides a lot of time for practice and rest. It's not on back-to-back days like the ACC tournament


We'll see how that confidence holds up throughout the week!

[Troublemaker]

I'm wondering if we will see the 2-3 zone and the 1-3-1 defenses. We played zone primarily against Notre Dame.

I loved the 2-3 zone we played for three-quarters of the ND game and for parts of the UNC game. Very active and turnover-forcing.

It's been a strange season on defense so far. Early on, 1-3-1 zone was our best defense. Then, we seemed to find a groove with m2m. But then Amile got injured and we struggled with a step up in competition before resorting to 2-3 zone, which was our best defense for a few games. But then, starting with GaTech, we switched back to m2m and played very good man defense against great competition until accumulated fatigue seemed to set in. And now I'm very curious about the 2-3 zone we've sported recently.

I wouldn't mind at all if we played 40 minutes of 2-3 zone on Thursday. I'd bet it'd be effective.

[Kedsy]

I hate the early games. The pre-game prep is completely different and the atmosphere in the gym can be non-existent.

If Duke is playing a double-digit seed, I'd much rather have the atmosphere in the gym be non-existent than the alternative.

[MIKESJ73]

The NCAA tournament format should help Duke with the short bench. According to this article, http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/03/ncaa-tournament-games-too-long-timeouts-reviews-length-of-games almost all the timeouts are full 60 seconds, the commercials are longer and the halftime is extended 5 more minutes than the regular season.

[uh_no]

The NCAA tournament format should help Duke with the short bench. According to this article, http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/03/ncaa-tournament-games-too-long-timeouts-reviews-length-of-games almost all the timeouts are full 60 seconds, the commercials are longer and the halftime is extended 5 more minutes than the regular season.

hooray for multiple games to swap between.

[SCMatt33]

The NCAA tournament format should help Duke with the short bench. According to this article, http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/03/ncaa-tournament-games-too-long-timeouts-reviews-length-of-games almost all the timeouts are full 60 seconds, the commercials are longer and the halftime is extended 5 more minutes than the regular season.

I see this was written last season. Was any of this affected by the new rules changes (i.e. fewer timeouts per team)?

[Kedsy]

...almost all the timeouts are full 60 seconds, the commercials are longer and the halftime is extended 5 more minutes than the regular season.

Having attended many NCAA tournament games over the years, those "60 second" timeouts are usually closer to 3 minutes.

[OldPhiKap]

The NCAA tournament format should help Duke with the short bench. According to this article, http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/03/ncaa-tournament-games-too-long-timeouts-reviews-length-of-games almost all the timeouts are full 60 seconds, the commercials are longer and the halftime is extended 5 more minutes than the regular season.

Don't tell Roy.

[TNDukeFan]

A quick caveat to add to this. Games on TBS, TNT, and TruTV require a cable login. Luckily, Duke's game is on CBS so will be freely available for all.

IIRC, there's a free amount of viewing (2 hours?) on those channels as well before login is required. it's cumulative -- hoard those minutes.

[SCMatt33]

IIRC, there's a free amount of viewing (2 hours?) on those channels as well before login is required. it's cumulative -- hoard those minutes.

I'm not sure exactly how much, but that's a good call. Another option is both Sling and PlayStation Vue offer 1 week free trials I believe. Both have access to the three cable networks needed

[Billy Dat]

Rob Dauster on UNC-W star Chris Flemmings
http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2016/03/08/the-rise-of-unc-wilmington-star-chris-flemmings-an-unrecruited-walk-on-and-division-ii-transfer/

[BandAlum83]

So what are the viewing options for our game? CBS has the game, do they stream an online feed? The ncaa sites are blocked here at work so I can't find the info.

I think you might be coming down with something. I don't think you want to get anyone at work sick. You should probably plan on staying home Thursday and Friday.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I think you might be coming down with something. I don't think you want to get anyone at work sick. You should probably plan on staying home Thursday and Friday.

You would hate to slip and fall, subjecting yourself to further school, er, work absences.

[SlapTheFloor]

I'm sure Marshall will start in this game, but I wonder how much of the time we'll play Brandon Ingram at center. It seems like UNC-W prefers to play small, so that could be an effective lineup for us. Spread them out and attack off the dribble. The other positive is this is one of the few games where we can rest Brandon without exposing ourselves to a big mismatch at PF.

[gofurman]

Having attended many NCAA tournament games over the years, those "60 second" timeouts are usually closer to 3 minutes.

Right, In the FIRST game of each weekend there really is little excuse for being tired. Even with 6 or so players the games are actually easier than ACC games as you have had a week of rest - so the coaches should be measuring running etc. And, as Kedsy astutely pointed out.. the timeouts and commercials are long - its all about the $$. So with the break every 4 minutes.. plus timeouts of each coach.. plus the extra commercials I don't see 'legs' as an excuse in the FIRST game of any weekend.

Now in the second game, on one day turnaround, I can see some tired legs. Not as much as what we saw in Notre Dame with no day of rest.. but some to a lesser extent. You still have the accumulated commercials and timeouts in both games.. but one day of rest is tough - particularly on this team. I think we were 2-2 on games with one day of rest this year? I think the first two times we played Saturday and then Monday turnaround we lost. Just looked: Syracuse Jan 18 - we lost by 2, Miami Jan 25 we lost by 11 in Coral Gables, Louisville Feb 8 we won by 7, WForest we won on March 1 by 8..

IF - and I say IF (looking at you Mercer and Lehigh and VCU etc) we get ahead by a good bit MAYBE we try a little Obi and Jeter? But I bet that Notre Dame game - up by 16 - scares us into keeping starters in the game longer ... Though you could say the Notre Dame learning is we need to rest the guys at all costs in the first game ? Even if only up12-14?

[gofurman]

If Duke is playing a double-digit seed, I'd much rather have the atmosphere in the gym be non-existent than the alternative.

THIS General fans pull for upsets. I know I would if it is not my team. I don't want any fans there. And I think a noon game lends itself to less fans .. that's good

[gofurman]

Scouting from the article on their Division 2 transfer star:

"Keatts tells his assistants that he needs players. Bodies. The style that UNCW plays isn’t all that dissimilar from Shaka Smart’s ‘Havoc’ defense or the new and improved Press Virginia under Bob Huggins’. Keatts wanted his guys to pressure for 40 minutes, to be in the kind of shape that will wear down an opponents’ legs, and to do that, he needed a roster that was deep; not just for games, but for practice as well. A ten man team using that system will get worn down pretty quickly when they don’t have the subs to play 5-on-5 in practice.

I don't like that. He wants to wear you down. IF we Win that's not good for the next game. Keatts is a former Louisville guy. Rising star at UNCW as a coach. three years ago they stunk.. bottom of the league. Instantly co-champs of CAA in his first year. Same this year. Champs of the league both his years there. Quite a turn around under him.

[wsb3]

Scouting from the article on their Division 2 transfer star:

I don't like that. He wants to wear you down.

That is exactly what he wants to do & has been quite successful at it.

[Wander]

I don't think we're particularly weak against the press, guys. We are very good at not turning the ball over (5th in the country) and usually have 4 guys on the court who can handle at least decently. The key will be keeping Thornton in the game and playing decently - his leave is when we fell apart against Louisville press. But I don't really buy the narrative that this is a bad matchup for us as UNC-W is not a particularly great rebounding team. I'd be more concerned about any of the other 13 seeds.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I don't think we're particularly weak against the press, guys. We are very good at not turning the ball over (5th in the country) and usually have 4 guys on the court who can handle at least decently. The key will be keeping Thornton in the game and playing decently - his leave is when we fell apart against Louisville press. But I don't really buy the narrative that this is a bad matchup for us as UNC-W is not a particularly great rebounding team. I'd be more concerned about any of the other 13 seeds.

I couldn't agree more. The press is the least of my worries. Thornton has a great handle. Keeping him on the floor will be crucial. Also keeping Thornton from jacking up ill-advised 3s and jump shots is key to keeping him on the floor and keeping the sanity of every Duke fan.

My keys to the game:

a) Give the ball to Allen early and often
b) Have MP3 go for offensive rebounds. And bring in Chase early and often.
c) Utilize an Ingram/Thornton press-breaker. It usually works

[Wander]

Well, all the way back in 2015 we entered the tournament with lots of questions on defense. I guess reasonable minds can differ, but personally I found the results plenty encouraging.

I want to add something to this, which is that kenpom's offense and defense numbers include rebounding. While that makes sense for his statistics, usually when people are talking about "defense" in casual conversation they're not really talking about rebounding.

We are really really awful at defensive rebounding. A little while ago after the UNC game I figured out that if we were simply an average Division 1 defensive rebounding team, our defensive ranking would jump about 30 spots, and if we were a little bit above average for Division 1 (like we were in 2015), our defensive ranking would jump about 40 spots. If we were an actual legitimately really good defensive rebounding team, it would jump even more. So I actually think our defense is decent (but not great) as most people define the term, it's just our horrible rebounding is making our defense terrible as stat guys define the term.

[CDu]

I want to add something to this, which is that kenpom's offense and defense numbers include rebounding. While that makes sense for his statistics, usually when people are talking about "defense" in casual conversation they're not really talking about rebounding.

We are really really awful at defensive rebounding. A little while ago after the UNC game I figured out that if we were simply an average Division 1 defensive rebounding team, our defensive ranking would jump about 30 spots, and if we were a little bit above average for Division 1 (like we were in 2015), our defensive ranking would jump about 40 spots. If we were an actual legitimately really good defensive rebounding team, it would jump even more. So I actually think our defense is decent (but not great) as most people define the term, it's just our horrible rebounding is making our defense terrible as stat guys define the term.

There was a stretch of about 3 or 4 games in which we were an ELITE defensive team. The first UNC game, the first Louisville game, and the FSU game were I think part of that run (maybe the UVa game too).

Of course, the flip side to that is that we've had some absolute clunkers defensively more recently. Pitt, NC State, and Notre Dame all shot 50% or better from the field against us. Of course, we also got obliterated on the offensive glass by Pitt and Notre Dame, which just compounded the problems with our defense.

But I do think it is fair to say that our first-shot defense isn't always terrible; it's just that we allow too many second shots.

[Kedsy]

I want to add something to this, which is that kenpom's offense and defense numbers include rebounding. While that makes sense for his statistics, usually when people are talking about "defense" in casual conversation they're not really talking about rebounding.

We are really really awful at defensive rebounding. A little while ago after the UNC game I figured out that if we were simply an average Division 1 defensive rebounding team, our defensive ranking would jump about 30 spots, and if we were a little bit above average for Division 1 (like we were in 2015), our defensive ranking would jump about 40 spots. If we were an actual legitimately really good defensive rebounding team, it would jump even more. So I actually think our defense is decent (but not great) as most people define the term, it's just our horrible rebounding is making our defense terrible as stat guys define the term.

This is a good point, but it's also worth pointing out that traditionally Duke has almost always been a poor defensive rebounding team. Last year's team's 69.8% defensive rebounding percentage, which you characterize (accurately, I assume) as "a little bit above average for Division I" was the best defensive rebounding percentage ever for a Duke team (or at least since 1987 when they started keeping offensive and defensive rebounds as stats).

Our 65.5% defensive rebounding percentage this season is about average for the 30 years that the stat has been kept. In fact, we got a higher percentage of available defensive rebounds this season than in 8 of our 11 Final Four teams (excluding 1986 because that was before they kept the stat):

THIS SEASON: 65.5%

Better than:
1999: 65.1%
1988: 64.8%
2001: 63.9%
1991: 63.7%
1992: 62.8%
2004: 62.9%
1994: 61.4%
1990: 60.3%

Worse than:
2015: 69.8%
1989: 68.8%
2010: 67.5%

Even our conference-games-only DR% of 63.4%, while seemingly anemic in a vacuum, is on par with at least a half-dozen Duke Final Four teams.

Of course, in the past, Duke teams made up for their poor defensive rebounding by turning opponents over at a high rate. Which this season we don't do at all (our lowest turnover percentage, or close to it, in the past 20 years, although not much different from 2015 or 2014 or 2012). And our opposing eFG% this season has also been really bad, at 49.4%, the second-worst rate in the past 30 years (better only than, oddly, the 1992 national champs which had an opposing eFG% of 50.5%; and just barely worse than our 2014 team, which gave up 49.3%).

If a high percentage of your opponents' shots go in, and you don't turn them over very much, then you probably also can't afford to rebound poorly on the defensive end. So for that reason, defensive rebounding might be more critical for this year's team's defense than it was for those other teams.

[Doria]

I think we have the capability to rebound solidly (i.e., keeping it more or less even against the better rebounding teams), but when we're tired or (more) injured, that just goes totally out the window.

But I am not too concerned about the press. We had some early trouble with it, but at this point in the season, we've had some good experience, and I wouldn't expect to see Ingram turning it over multiple times agains pressing/trapping teams; ditto, Thornton. Thornton is an important player for us to have playing solidly. He doesn't have to score tons, but we absolutely need him to play well because he's one of the quicker guards I've seen play this year and has the potential to break down a lot of defenses.

I'm very excited it's almost time, though! Go Duke!

[82hawk]

As Duke fans, this is old hat for you. But, UNCW fans are elated to be a part of this and to have the opportunity to face a program like Duke from our own state of North Carolina.

I've been reading this thread, and thought i'd give you some insight on UNCW as a very close follower of the team.

1. We do press for most of the game. However, it is not a Havoc press like you may see from Shaka the WHOLE game. It's more of a constant application for the whole game, with intermittent spurts of havoc. The goal is to have a cumulative affect that wears down the other team, and eventually leads to mistakes and turnovers.

2 We have faced a zone defense continually in the CAA, and have gotten pretty good at scoring against a zone. We will sometimes lapse into jacking a bunch of 3's, and it usually fails. However, Keatts is good at getting the guys back on track, and having them attack the zone on the drive and dish, or from the baseline. Our 7 footer is almost a non-factor on offense. He mostly scores on put backs of his own missed shots or FT's, where he shoots almost 80%.

3. Although our overall 3 point numbers don't look great, our lineup changed significantly during conference play and our 3 point shooting improved significantly. We ended up 2nd in conference statistics, shooting 36% as a team from 3. Denzel Ingram is our deadliest and most clutch 3 point shooter at .423% in conference play. Chris Flemmings shoots almost 50% from the field as a 6'5" small forward, and shot .337 from 3. Flemmings is a gifted basketball player, and has one of the smoothest games you can imagine. He is fantastic on the break, and will score in bursts. He does a lot of damage when we get into one of our "havoc modes", and it isn't unusual for him to reel off 8-12 points in a few minutes span.

We then have a few more guards who are all capable of putting up 20 points. Keatts will change his lineups and play different guys depending on how they are producing in each game. We've had starters who will sit out the entire next game. We also have a 6'9" Grad student who is inconsistent, but at times is very effective at the front of the press and hitting big 3's(Dylan Sherwood). He will generally come in when CJ Gettys goes out.

Our weakness is in the post. We have a 7 footer, CJ Gettys, who is pretty good at blocking shots, but he can easily get in foul trouble. When he sits, we have a 6'7" brawler(Marcus Bryan) who moves to the 5 spot, or a rock solid 6'7" freshman in Davontae Cacock who is a strong rebounder and very athletic.


WE WILL NOT PLAY ZONE. Keatts would rather give up fouls playing man, than play zone.

You can expect to see 3 guards at all times, and 6'5" Chris Flemmings (our leading scorer and rebounder)at the 4 spot for most of the game.

Really looking forward to this game, and we are cautiously optimistic that we can at least stay in the game and maybe have a chance at the end to win.

Good luck!

[OldPhiKap]

As Duke fans, this is old hat for you. But, UNCW fans are elated to be a part of this and to have the opportunity to face a program that like Duke from our own state of North Carolina.

I've been reading this thread, and thought i'd give you some insight on UNCW as a very close follower of the team.

1. We do press for most of the game. However, it is not a Havoc press like you may see from Shaka the WHOLE game. It's more of a constant application for the whole game, with intermittent spurts of havoc. The goal is to have a cumulative affect that wears down the other team, and eventually leads to mistakes and turnovers.

2 We have faced a zone defense continually in the CAA, and have gotten pretty good at scoring against a zone. We will sometimes lapse into jacking a bunch of 3's, and it usually fails. However, Keatts is good at getting the guys back on track, and having them attack the zone on the drive and dish, or from the baseline. Our 7 footer is almost a non-factor on offense. He mostly scores on put backs of his own missed shots or FT's, where he shoots almost 80%.

3. Although our overall 3 point numbers don't look great, our lineup changed significantly during conference play and our 3 point shooting improved significantly. We ended up 2nd in conference statistics, shooting 36% as a team from 3. Denzel Ingram is our deadliest and most clutch 3 point shooter at .423% in conference play. Chris Flemmings shoots almost 50% from the field as a 6'5" small forward, and shot .337 from 3. Flemmings is a gifted basketball player, and has one of the smoothest games you can imagine. He is fantastic on the break, and will score in bursts. He does a lot of damage when we get into one of our "havoc modes", and it isn't unusual for him to reel off 8-12 points in a few minutes span.

We then have a few more guards who are all capable of putting up 20 points. Keatts will change his lineups and play different guys depending on how they are producing in each game. We've had starters who will sit out the entire next game. We also have a 6'9" Grad student who is inconsistent, but at times is very effective at the front of the press and hitting big 3's(Dylan Sherwood). He will generally come in when CJ Gettys goes out.

Our weakness is in the post. We have a 7 footer, CJ Gettys, who is pretty good at blocking shots, but he can easily get in foul trouble. When he sits, we have a 6'7" brawler(Marcus Bryan) who moves to the 5 spot, or a rock solid 6'7" freshman in Davontae Cacock who is a strong rebounder and very athletic.


WE WILL NOT PLAY ZONE. Keatts would rather give up fouls playing man, than play zone.

You can expect to see 3 guards at all times, and 6'5" Chris Flemmings (our leading scorer and rebounder)at the 4 spot for most of the game.

Really looking forward to this game, and we are cautiously optimistic that we can at least stay in the game and maybe have a chance at the end to win.

Good luck!

Thanks for the excellent post, and welcome to the board. Lots of respect here for UNC-W. Should be a good game!

[sagegrouse]

As Duke fans, this is old hat for you. But, UNCW fans are elated to be a part of this and to have the opportunity to face a program that like Duke from our own state of North Carolina.

I've been reading this thread, and thought i'd give you some insight on UNCW as a very close follower of the team.

!
Thanks for your post and congratulations on a terrific season.

Kindly,
Sage

[ChillinDuke]

An interesting tidbit I just came across.

One of the (ahem) websites I like to observe lists the most similar game profile to tomorrow's Duke v UNCW game as the 2009 Ohio St v Siena matchup in the first round of the Tourney.

You may recall it. It was a double OT thriller that sent #8 seed Evan Turner home and #9 seed Fran McCaffery into the second round.

I found it interested that the "most similar" game that they had on record ended in the Goliath school losing. Granted, Goliath was a #8 seed, but the fact still stands.

Further interesting, the four "next most similar" games all ended in the Goliath school winning.

Some additional musing nourishment.

- Chillin

[gofurman]

As Duke fans, this is old hat for you. But, UNCW fans are elated to be a part of this and to have the opportunity to face a program like Duke from our own state of North Carolina.

I've been reading this thread, and thought i'd give you some insight on UNCW as a very close follower of the team.

1. We do press for most of the game. However, it is not a Havoc press like you may see from Shaka the WHOLE game. It's more of a constant application for the whole game, with intermittent spurts of havoc. The goal is to have a cumulative affect that wears down the other team, and eventually leads to mistakes and turnovers.

2 We have faced a zone defense continually in the CAA, and have gotten pretty good at scoring against a zone. We will sometimes lapse into jacking a bunch of 3's, and it usually fails. However, Keatts is good at getting the guys back on track, and having them attack the zone on the drive and dish, or from the baseline. Our 7 footer is almost a non-factor on offense. He mostly scores on put backs of his own missed shots or FT's, where he shoots almost 80%.

3. Although our overall 3 point numbers don't look great, our lineup changed significantly during conference play and our 3 point shooting improved significantly. We ended up 2nd in conference statistics, shooting 36% as a team from 3. Denzel Ingram is our deadliest and most clutch 3 point shooter at .423% in conference play. Chris Flemmings shoots almost 50% from the field as a 6'5" small forward, and shot .337 from 3. Flemmings is a gifted basketball player, and has one of the smoothest games you can imagine. He is fantastic on the break, and will score in bursts. He does a lot of damage when we get into one of our "havoc modes", and it isn't unusual for him to reel off 8-12 points in a few minutes span.

We then have a few more guards who are all capable of putting up 20 points. Keatts will change his lineups and play different guys depending on how they are producing in each game. We've had starters who will sit out the entire next game. We also have a 6'9" Grad student who is inconsistent, but at times is very effective at the front of the press and hitting big 3's(Dylan Sherwood). He will generally come in when CJ Gettys goes out.

Our weakness is in the post. We have a 7 footer, CJ Gettys, who is pretty good at blocking shots, but he can easily get in foul trouble. When he sits, we have a 6'7" brawler(Marcus Bryan) who moves to the 5 spot, or a rock solid 6'7" freshman in Davontae Cacock who is a strong rebounder and very athletic.


WE WILL NOT PLAY ZONE. Keatts would rather give up fouls playing man, than play zone.

You can expect to see 3 guards at all times, and 6'5" Chris Flemmings (our leading scorer and rebounder)at the 4 spot for most of the game.

Really looking forward to this game, and we are cautiously optimistic that we can at least stay in the game and maybe have a chance at the end to win.

Good luck!

Thanks for the objective post which gives us insight into your team. I personally appreciate that so I know what and who to watch for. Duke fans are well aware that we should respect good 'lower' seeds like Mercer and Lehigh. I wish you luck in every game except this one. Sounds like you found a super coach !

*So is pretty much Ingram and Flemmings as the big threats???

[gofurman]

"WE WILL NOT PLAY ZONE. Keatts would rather give up fouls playing man, than play zone."

Duke used to say that.. LOL

[gofurman]

small advantage Duke - IF we win.. I like playing early. Less fans rooting against us but also we get to watch the Baylor Yale game from the stands. Rest legs a few hours and study the opponents while they are playin'

agree?

[82hawk]

Thanks for the objective post which gives us insight into your team. I personally appreciate that so I know what and who to watch for. Duke fans are well aware that we should respect good 'lower' seeds like Mercer and Lehigh. I wish you luck in every game except this one. Sounds like you found a super coach !

*So is pretty much Ingram and Flemmings as the big threats???

They are our most consistent threats. Craig Ponder is a fifth year Senior, and put up 20 against Hofstra(16 in the 2nd. half) in the CAA championship game. He can be great on the drive and can get hot from 3. Consistency has been an issue.

CJ Bryce was having a rookie of the year season, then slumped a bit in the middle. At the last minute, Witchita State came in and tried to get him to decommit. He's put up 20+ several times. He is probably our best and driving into a zone and finishing with jumpers and layups. He's also a very good rebounder as a 6'5" guard.

And sophomore Jordan Talley is our natural PG and best ball handler. Tough defender. HOWEVER, he has a bad habit of slowing down the ball and dribbling too much when we want to run. As a result, our offense stagnates, and he ends up taking some last second shot. When he plays well, he is a threat to drive and is a slightly below average threat from 3. All of them have put up 20 points in a game this season. If Talley is playing well, it makes a HUGE difference, because it stretches our bench.

Keatts...sigh. He also is fantastic with alumni, fans and the administration. I'd love to think he's decided life at the beach is worth making less money elsewhere, but i'm afraid the wallets may open up...if he beats Duke. Conflicted here.

[82hawk]

"WE WILL NOT PLAY ZONE. Keatts would rather give up fouls playing man, than play zone."

Duke used to say that.. LOL

I've cornered him directly. He will only play a matchup zone, and he has stated that he simply has too many transfers and freshmen to teach them to play it correctly, so he won't use it.

[rasputin]

Welcome to the DBR board, 82hawk, and thanks for the analysis.

[Troublemaker]

Important.

Laura Keeley ‏@laurakeeley (https://twitter.com/laurakeeley) 1h1 hour ago (https://twitter.com/laurakeeley/status/710146986469675009)
Swelling has gone down in Marshall Plumlee's nose. Says he has fine-tuned the mask to better his vision and gotten more used to it

Stephen Wiseman ‏@stevewisemanNC (https://twitter.com/stevewisemanNC) 19m19 minutes ago (https://twitter.com/stevewisemanNC/status/710165011273015296)Providence, RI (https://twitter.com/search?q=place%3A7b93be1d864cedbb)
Marshall Plumlee practicing free throws with his mask off his face. Puts it back on for live action.


Laura Keeley ‏@laurakeeley (https://twitter.com/laurakeeley) 53m53 minutes ago (https://twitter.com/laurakeeley/status/710156385254838272)
Plumlee going with a clearer-colored mask now

[UrinalCake]

Denzel Ingram is our deadliest and most clutch 3 point shooter at .423% in conference play.

If your best shooter checks in at less than half a percent from three, then I like our chances!!!

(Sorry, just giving you a hard time. Appreciate all the info).

[82hawk]

If your best shooter checks in at less than half a percent from three, then I like our chances!!!

(Sorry, just giving you a hard time. Appreciate all the info).


Damn you Duke people with your advanced mathematic acuity...I'm just a real estate guy with a degree in communications !

[Doria]

Damn you Duke people with your advanced mathematic acuity...I'm just a real estate guy with a degree in communications !

Haha, but seriously, thanks for the inside look at your team. It can be pretty hard to get a real in-depth view of a team that doesn't get much national coverage (I live on the West Coast, so it's relatively hopeless). I appreciate your commentary, and it sounds like your team has a good framework in place and obviously has had a great season already.

[BandAlum83]

Damn you Duke people with your advanced mathematic acuity...I'm just a real estate guy with a degree in communications !

A real estate guy? Maybe you can hook me up with one of those mortgages at .423%?

[rsvman]

A real estate guy? Maybe you can hook me up with one of those mortgages at .423%?

LOL! Sounds good to me, too.

[wsb3]

As Duke fans, this is old hat for you. But, UNCW fans are elated to be a part of this and to have the opportunity to face a program like Duke from our own state of North Carolina.

I've been reading this thread, and thought i'd give you some insight on UNCW as a very close follower of the team.

1. We do press for most of the game. However, it is not a Havoc press like you may see from Shaka the WHOLE game. It's more of a constant application for the whole game, with intermittent spurts of havoc. The goal is to have a cumulative affect that wears down the other team, and eventually leads to mistakes and turnovers.

2 We have faced a zone defense continually in the CAA, and have gotten pretty good at scoring against a zone. We will sometimes lapse into jacking a bunch of 3's, and it usually fails. However, Keatts is good at getting the guys back on track, and having them attack the zone on the drive and dish, or from the baseline. Our 7 footer is almost a non-factor on offense. He mostly scores on put backs of his own missed shots or FT's, where he shoots almost 80%.

3. Although our overall 3 point numbers don't look great, our lineup changed significantly during conference play and our 3 point shooting improved significantly. We ended up 2nd in conference statistics, shooting 36% as a team from 3. Denzel Ingram is our deadliest and most clutch 3 point shooter at .423% in conference play. Chris Flemmings shoots almost 50% from the field as a 6'5" small forward, and shot .337 from 3. Flemmings is a gifted basketball player, and has one of the smoothest games you can imagine. He is fantastic on the break, and will score in bursts. He does a lot of damage when we get into one of our "havoc modes", and it isn't unusual for him to reel off 8-12 points in a few minutes span.

We then have a few more guards who are all capable of putting up 20 points. Keatts will change his lineups and play different guys depending on how they are producing in each game. We've had starters who will sit out the entire next game. We also have a 6'9" Grad student who is inconsistent, but at times is very effective at the front of the press and hitting big 3's(Dylan Sherwood). He will generally come in when CJ Gettys goes out.

Our weakness is in the post. We have a 7 footer, CJ Gettys, who is pretty good at blocking shots, but he can easily get in foul trouble. When he sits, we have a 6'7" brawler(Marcus Bryan) who moves to the 5 spot, or a rock solid 6'7" freshman in Davontae Cacock who is a strong rebounder and very athletic.


WE WILL NOT PLAY ZONE. Keatts would rather give up fouls playing man, than play zone.

You can expect to see 3 guards at all times, and 6'5" Chris Flemmings (our leading scorer and rebounder)at the 4 spot for most of the game.

Really looking forward to this game, and we are cautiously optimistic that we can at least stay in the game and maybe have a chance at the end to win.

Good luck!

Excellent post.. Great description of the press having observed the Hawks a few times this year. Also the post is a place if Marshall plays smart & stays out of foul trouble I see Duke with an advantage inside.

I screamed at the television when I saw this match up because I was looking forward to pulling for the Seahawks to win but I have been a diehard Duke fan since the days of Jeff Mullins & Jack Marin so even though I love the school and my wife that graduated from there it's always GO DUKE for me.

My oldest sister attended when it was merely Wilmington College & I know several of the guys that played baseball then. In 1961 &1963 they won the National Championship in Junior College Baseball.

[82hawk]

A real estate guy? Maybe you can hook me up with one of those mortgages at .423%?

Now I see where the relentless fans come from...:cool:

[82hawk]

Excellent post.. Great description of the press having observed the Hawks a few times this year. Also the post is a place if Marshall plays smart & stays out of foul trouble I see Duke with an advantage inside.

I screamed at the television when I saw this match up because I was looking forward to pulling for the Seahawks to win but I have been a diehard Duke fan since the days of Jeff Mullins & Jack Marin so even though I love the school and my wife that graduated from there it's always GO DUKE for me.

My oldest sister attended when it was merely Wilmington College & I know several of the guys that played baseball then. In 1961 &1963 they won the National Championship in Junior College Baseball.

Sounds to me like the PERFECT time to jump ship and come home...If UNCW wins...you in? lol.

Hofstra has a 6'9" 245 lb. Lithuanian piece of granite in the post, and he averaged over 20 rebounds against us in 3 games. We're vulnerable there. But we still beat them 2-3 games.

[wsb3]

Sounds to me like the PERFECT time to jump ship and come home...If UNCW wins...you in? lol.

Hofstra has a 6'9" 245 lb. Lithuanian piece of granite in the post, and he averaged over 20 rebounds against us in 3 games. We're vulnerable there. But we still beat them 2-3 games.

I would be in against anyone else..:)

As I have stated before & you know this as well. Don't relax if you get a 10-15 point lead on the Hawks because they absolutely will keep coming at you & they have won a lot of games coming from behind. Lot of heart.

I am so happy that UNCW has recovered from many bad years & I wonder just how long the school can expect to hang on to the coach. UNCW does not exactly pay top $$$

[82hawk]

I would be in against anyone else..:)

As I have stated before & you know this as well. Don't relax if you get a 10-15 point lead on the Hawks because they absolutely will keep coming at you & they have won a lot of games coming from behind. Lot of heart.

I am so happy that UNCW has recovered from many bad years & I wonder just how long the school can expect to hang on to the coach. UNCW does not exactly pay top $$$


Yeah, the thought has occurred to us...

The good thing is that he has brought a style and system that allows us to recruit coaches who play a similar style. The Pitino coaching tree is wide, and we brought in Keatts with a long term plan to maintain this style of play. Keatts came to UNCW for a specific reason. He wanted to go to a school where he could recruit and compete at the top of a conference and he wanted to go to a place that had a strong fan base with a history of support and winning. So, if he leaves, I think he will only go to a school with those same attributes, and those are hard to find at a top level conference.

[Kedsy]

So, if he leaves, I think he will only go to a school with those same attributes, and those are hard to find at a top level conference.

You mean, like Louisville, when his mentor retires?

[gofurman]

Quote Originally Posted by 82Hawk:
"WE WILL NOT PLAY ZONE. Keatts would rather give up fouls playing man, than play zone."

GoFurman:
Duke used to say that.. LOL


I've cornered him directly. He will only play a matchup zone, and he has stated that he simply has too many transfers and freshmen to teach them to play it correctly, so he won't use it.

82, I think my tease may have been misinterpreted - If so, I apologize. I was kinda sorta teasing Duke about how K used to say that and now has adjusted.. It was all in fun. I was not teasing you guys. Interesting though that you guys will do a 'matchup zone' on occasion. But would you say it's 90% probable we see M2M?

[subzero02]

If your best shooter checks in at less than half a percent from three, then I like our chances!!!

(Sorry, just giving you a hard time. Appreciate all the info).

That's some funny stuff.

[82hawk]

Quote Originally Posted by 82Hawk:
"WE WILL NOT PLAY ZONE. Keatts would rather give up fouls playing man, than play zone."

GoFurman:
Duke used to say that.. LOL



82, I think my tease may have been misinterpreted - If so, I apologize. I was kinda sorta teasing Duke about how K used to say that and now has adjusted.. It was all in fun. I was not teasing you guys. Interesting though that you guys will do a 'matchup zone' on occasion. But would you say it's 90% probable we see M2M?


100%. We haven't played zone this year and Keatts stated it was because an effective matchup zone is hard to teach. With so many Freshmen and transfers, he couldn't get them al prepared. I would be shocked if we played 10 seconds of zone.

[82hawk]

Quote Originally Posted by 82Hawk:
"WE WILL NOT PLAY ZONE. Keatts would rather give up fouls playing man, than play zone."

GoFurman:
Duke used to say that.. LOL



82, I think my tease may have been misinterpreted - If so, I apologize. I was kinda sorta teasing Duke about how K used to say that and now has adjusted.. It was all in fun. I was not teasing you guys. Interesting though that you guys will do a 'matchup zone' on occasion. But would you say it's 90% probable we see M2M?

I know you're kidding. And I know that Duke has never really played a zone before, so it surprised everyone to see it. I WISH we would play one to stop the excessive fouls, but I know Keatts and he is adamant they will not play zone this year.

[82hawk]

You mean, like Louisville, when his mentor retires?

Could be. Wonder how long Pitino plans on coaching. Hoping another 7 years in this scenario....:-)

[wavedukefan70s]

Yeah, the thought has occurred to us...

The good thing is that he has brought a style and system that allows us to recruit coaches who play a similar style. The Pitino coaching tree is wide, and we brought in Keatts with a long term plan to maintain this style of play. Keatts came to UNCW for a specific reason. He wanted to go to a school where he could recruit and compete at the top of a conference and he wanted to go to a place that had a strong fan base with a history of support and winning. So, if he leaves, I think he will only go to a school with those same attributes, and those are hard to find at a top level conference.

If your basketball fans follow like your baseball fans.you have a good fanbase.you guys always come to college of charleston with a good many.

[OldPhiKap]

100%. We haven't played zone this year and Keatts stated it was because an effective matchup zone is hard to teach. With so many Freshmen and transfers, he couldn't get them al prepared. I would be shocked if we played 10 seconds of zone.

Interesting, Coach "zone is surrender" Krzyzewski introduced significant zones last year from the opposite conclusion -- his team was too young to really learn man to man. Although to be fair, I think it was really Coach Jeff Capel that talked him into trying it. And working with Jimmy Boeheim on the international team for years.

[SlapTheFloor]

Interesting, Coach "zone is surrender" Krzyzewski introduced significant zones last year from the opposite conclusion -- his team was too young to really learn man to man. Although to be fair, I think it was really Coach Jeff Capel that talked him into trying it. And working with Jimmy Boeheim on the international team for years.

Strangely, I went back and watched the 1991 championship game in the off season (I hadn't seen it since it originally aired), and was surprised to see Duke in a 1-3-1 midway through the game. So, I guess K didn't always hate zone. I wonder what caused him to swear it off.

[Doria]

Strangely, I went back and watched the 1991 championship game in the off season (I hadn't seen it since it originally aired), and was surprised to see Duke in a 1-3-1 midway through the game. So, I guess K didn't always hate zone. I wonder what caused him to swear it off.

I don't recall any explicit reasoning either from the press at the time (I was still living in NC back then) or from his book, which I read many years ago, when it first came out. But that was a long time ago, and my memory isn't what it used to be. I would guess, though, that he felt a man defense just gives his teams the best chance to win, absent foul trouble or injury. Back when he had at least 3-4 years to perfect his man2man (sounds like a terrible 80s group), his teams were generally known for their defense, so they bore out that theory.

While I'm pretty okay with (or at least resigned to) the current turnover in CBB rosters, I do miss those defense-minded teams because they were so fun to watch on both ends: players like Johnny Dawkins, Billy King, Shane Battier... I miss those types of players.

[rsvman]

I have a feeling that we'll see a lot of pro-set offense in this one, with isolation for Brandon.

I just don't think UNC-W has anybody who can stop Ingram. I wouldn't be surprised to see Brandon one-on-one on a fair number of possessions. It's not my favorite offense, but if they can't stop him, it will lead to a Duke win.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I have a feeling that we'll see a lot of pro-set offense in this one, with isolation for Brandon.

I just don't think UNC-W has anybody who can stop Ingram. I wouldn't be surprised to see Brandon one-on-one on a fair number of possessions. It's not my favorite offense, but if they can't stop him, it will lead to a Duke win.

I'm not too worried about the offense, even though it's stagnated somewhat. Against Mercer and Lehigh, Duke scored 71 and 70 points, respectively. I assume we'll at least score that many in today's game. I'm worried about defense and boards. Ingram needs to be strong on the boards and Thornton/Allen/Jones need to be strong with on-the-ball-D. They've had 7 days rest. Fatigue cannot be an issue on D.

[cato]

I'm not too worried about the offense, even though it's stagnated somewhat. Against Mercer and Lehigh, Duke scored 71 and 70 points, respectively. I assume we'll at least score that many in today's game. I'm worried about defense and boards. Ingram needs to be strong on the boards and Thornton/Allen/Jones need to be strong with on-the-ball-D. They've had 7 days rest. Fatigue cannot be an issue on D.

A slightly different take: I am worried about the offense, because of its impact on the D. It's a bit cliched at this point, but this team really has trouble on both ends when shots aren't falling.

That said, now is a perfect time to define their D independently from the O.

Go Duke!

[TruBlu]

I have a feeling that we'll see a lot of pro-set offense in this one, with isolation for Brandon.

I just don't think UNC-W has anybody who can stop Ingram. I wouldn't be surprised to see Brandon one-on-one on a fair number of possessions. It's not my favorite offense, but if they can't stop him, it will lead to a Duke win.

The refs might be able to stop him. We need to avoid foul trouble.

[Edouble]

I'm not too worried about the offense, even though it's stagnated somewhat. Against Mercer and Lehigh, Duke scored 71 and 70 points, respectively. I assume we'll at least score that many in today's game. I'm worried about defense and boards. Ingram needs to be strong on the boards and Thornton/Allen/Jones need to be strong with on-the-ball-D. They've had 7 days rest. Fatigue cannot be an issue on D.

I'm sure DT will bring it. It's Jones and his dual ankle issues that I am worried about. Fatigue can not be an issue, you are correct, but if his ankles just aren't at 100% yet, there is nothing he can do other than perform at the level that his injury dictates.

[Indoor66]

I'm not too worried about the offense, even though it's stagnated somewhat. Against Mercer and Lehigh, Duke scored 71 and 70 points, respectively. I assume we'll at least score that many in today's game. I'm worried about defense and boards. Ingram needs to be strong on the boards and Thornton/Allen/Jones need to be strong with on-the-ball-D. They've had 7 days rest. Fatigue cannot be an issue on D.

I fail to see the relevance of these facts. I know they were losses but this is a different team and different opponents, etc., etc.

[-jk]

DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox) is open!

If it gets a bit slow, refresh the page. If you're on a mobile device, you'll need to select "Blue" at the bottom.

As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines.

Let's Go Duke!

-jk

[flyingdutchdevil]

I fail to see the relevance of these facts. I know they were losses but this is a different team and different opponents, etc., etc.

There is plenty of relevance. In the OAD age, Duke has often been terrific on O but suspect on D. This year is no different (and you can say that we're terrible on D. I think we are). Scoring about UNCW will not be a problem. Defense might. Let's hope it isn't.

[Olympic Fan]

Strangely, I went back and watched the 1991 championship game in the off season (I hadn't seen it since it originally aired), and was surprised to see Duke in a 1-3-1 midway through the game. So, I guess K didn't always hate zone. I wonder what caused him to swear it off.

K has always played SOME zone.

There is a passage in John Feinstein's book ON THE BRINK were he is sitting with Bobby Knight, watching Duke play on TV. Knight is grumbling because he sees K use a zone ... that was in 1986.

That's a difference between K and his mentor -- Knight would never play zone, while K would use it situationally. The myth that K never used zone goes back to 1983, when he did stubbornly refuse to use zone, even with it would have helped in certain situations. But he wanted to install man-to-man as hi base defense and he wanted his kids -- Dawkins, Alarie, Henderson were freshman -- to learn it. As they became proficient in the man, he began to insert a little bit of zone. I would say that in the '90 and in the first decade of this century, he played less zone as he developed some zone-like principles as one of the options in his man-to-man. His 2010 national champs played a loose, sagging man with a lot of switching tat was not too far from a zone.

But it's true that he was basically a man-to-man coach until midway through last year. After the defense collapsed in back-to-back games with NC State and Miami, he turned to the zone in desperation. It helped the team finish strong. But some Duke fans seem to forget that K went back o the man for the NCAA Tournament. There was a little zone mixed in, but it was till 95-97 percent man -- an they played great defense in the tourney.

I will be very interested to see what defense Duke uses today and throughout the tournament. This has been a base zone team down the stretch of the regular season. But so was last year's team ... will this one return to the man-to-man defense?

[riverside6]

Live tempo-based stats for Duke/UNCW, starters posted

http://www.scacchoops.com/unc-wilmington-at-duke-basketball-live-stats-3172016-1215-pm

[jipops]

This is about as bad as our defense has looked all season. When not turning it over, the Seahawks are getting whatever shot they want.

[rsvman]

looking pretty bad so far. pour shooting from 3 and especially from the line. defensive lapse leading to easy buckets. Flemmings came to play.

we better loosen up pretty soon or we could be out of here pretty quickly.

[CDu]

Not off to a good start. Hopefully we settle down and start hitting shots. Hopefully we start playing better defense. Otherwise this stands a chance of being a very short tournament for us.

[subzero02]

It'd be nice if we started making some foul shots

[gocanes0506]

Recipe for an upset happening.

Misses 3s, check
Missing a bunch of FTs, check
Missing bunnies, check
Other team throwing up shots they dont normally make, check

Not good so far

[arnie]

Thus performance has Mercer/Lehigh written all over it. UNCW is a better team right now. We do have 2015 to remember.

[DukeWarhead]

Grow up, Duke. Grow up, quickly.

[CDu]

Our defensive rebounding has been awful so far, especially given our size advantage.

[bleedingblue88]

Inexcusable performance.

[subzero02]

I don't think uncw can shoot much better...everything is falling for them

[burns15]

There is no excuse for a team with the talent Duke as, to give up 40 to a CAA team. This has been a repeated issue in the Lehigh and Mercer games as well. It's inexcusable, and it's coaching

[gocanes0506]

The upset is real. Uncw doesnt shoot like this. Just jacking crap and its going in.

[jipops]

The post-Louisville II version of this Duke team has shown up again today. It just has not been the same team at all since. It's almost as if once we had assured ourselves a tournament bid, the season came to a close. And it continues to be the same 'not same' team (did that make any sense?).

[CDu]

Inexcusable performance.

It's excusable. It just isn't very fun.

Two big 3s at the end of the half really helped bail us out. They've shot extraordinarily well so far from 3, while we've shot poorly. If that reverts to form in the second half, we should still win. But we do still need to rebound better.

[GGLC]

That end-of-half shot by our Ingram was huge.

[TKG]

We look like zombies out there today.

[cspan37421]

hard work beats talent when talent doesn't work hard.

[rsvman]

they have made some shots that were difficult and well defended. shots they can't be making week to week. meanwhile, we're missing shots we normally make.
Maybe shooting reverts to the mean a bit in the second half and we pull it out?

[gofurman]

I'm not too worried about the offense, even though it's stagnated somewhat. Against Mercer and Lehigh, Duke scored 71 and 70 points, respectively. I assume we'll at least score that many in today's game. I'm worried about defense and boards. Ingram needs to be strong on the boards and Thornton/Allen/Jones need to be strong with on-the-ball-D. They've had 7 days rest. Fatigue cannot be an issue on D.


You must have ESPN... 43-40 at half. All O. No D. Granted they are hittin everything in the gym

[ncexnyc]

Is there a reason Ingram isn't posting up on the block every play?
There isn't anyone on UNC-W that can stop him.

[CDu]

The good news is we just need to win by 4 in the second half. The other good news is that we are capable of playing much better, while I am not sure they can play much better.

The bad news is that we don't have much wiggle room left for those changes to occur.

[NM Duke Fan]

Grayson just doesn't look right to me, even his facial expression. Almost like he is nursing an injury. Most of the team does not have the eye of the tiger so far. In any case, I was glad to see Plumlee show some anger and toss the mask. It is going to take a major shfit in how the 3 is defended to win, and that also means better rebounding. The number of 3's off of offensive rebounds is quite high. Wide open shots too.

[CameronBlue]

hard work beats talent when talent doesn't work hard.

Strange substitution patterns contribute. I am mystified why Matt Jones plays at Thornton's expense. UNCW is known to be a scrambling, pressing team. So let's just complicate the team's job further by asking everyone who is not a point guard to bring the ball up court. Pressure on the perimeter? Great let's start a guy who can only contribute 3-pointers over a guy who can break his man down off the dribble and get into the interior for layups and assists. Matt's defense is vastly over-rated and he's a 6-5 guy who has no rebounding instincts.

[GGLC]

Grayson just doesn't look right to me, even his facial expression. Almost like he is nursing an injury. Most of the team does not have the eye of the tiger so far. In any case, I was glad to see Plumlee show some anger and toss the mask. It is going to take a major shfit in how the 3 is defended to win, and that also means better rebounding. The number of 3's off of offensive rebounds is quite high. Wide open shots too.

Grayson's shot selection in the last stretch of games has consistently mystified me; he loves driving into traffic, throwing something up, and hoping it hits.


Strange substitution patterns contribute. I am mystified why Matt Jones plays at Thornton's expense. UNCW is known to be a scrambling, pressing team. So let's just complicate the team's job further by asking everyone who is not a point guard to bring the ball up court. Pressure on the perimeter? Great let's start a guy who can only contribute 3-pointers over a guy who can break his man down off the dribble and get into the interior for layups and assists. Matt's defense is vastly over-rated and he's a 6-5 guy who has no rebounding instincts.

Couldn't disagree more about Matt's defense. And keep in mind that Thornton's overall field goal percentage for the season is south of 40 percent.

[CDu]

We are a 38.7% 3pt shooting team that shot 3-10 from 3 (so about 1 less than we should have made). They are a 33.6% 3pt shooting team that hit 6-12 in the first half (so 2 more than they should have made). That difference alone is a 9 point swing.

We need to flip that script in the second half.

[subzero02]

We are favored by 7.5 points for the Second half. We must make our foul shots. I do think Allen is hurt.

[Doria]

Strange substitution patterns contribute. I am mystified why Matt Jones plays at Thornton's expense. UNCW is known to be a scrambling, pressing team. So let's just complicate the team's job further by asking everyone who is not a point guard to bring the ball up court. Pressure on the perimeter? Great let's start a guy who can only contribute 3-pointers over a guy who can break his man down off the dribble and get into the interior for layups and assists. Matt's defense is vastly over-rated and he's a 6-5 guy who has no rebounding instincts.

I largely agree, and UNC-W is looking a lot faster than I'd anticipated (even knowing they were a team of guards). But perhaps Coach K's thinking was that we needed a reliable shot and more reliable defense (and of course, size). The counter to this is that Jones hasn't shot that well since hurting his ankles, and Derryck's defense has been pretty good in stretches.

Will be interesting to see what adjustments we make at the half. Hopefully, a lot of good adjustments. Hard to see how it could be much worse.

[pamtar]

They're on a mission and playing loose. Their D is superb, especially on the perimeter. We're playing rushed on both ends and it's causing us to take bad shots and give up too many open looks. For a team that supposedly can't shoot they look pretty good to me. We're really gonna have to find a way to hit some 3s and rebound better if we want to win.

[Danke Shane]

Grayson just doesn't look right to me, even his facial expression. Almost like he is nursing an injury.

I thought I saw Grayson limping to the huddle when a TV time out was underway....

[gumbomoop]

Hope we take it to the hoop in first 7-8 minutes. Get them in foul trouble very early.

[subzero02]

I didn't realize len Elmore was doing this game... unreal

[GGLC]

Matt doesn't have rebounding instincts, huh? :) (Nice putback by him there.)

[GGLC]

What a rebound by Ingram, and what a dirty foul by the UNC-W player on Jeter.

[subzero02]

Let's go... we need to stay tough

[gocanes0506]

Matt doesn't have rebounding instincts, huh? :) (Nice putback by him there.)

He didn't rebound he grabbed a loose ball on the floor.

[CDu]

Night and day in terms of energy and aggressiveness to start this half.

[NM Duke Fan]

That fire I mentioned that Plumlee showed when he tossed the mask was the key to getting this half off to a much better start with shots being repeatedly contested. Much better Fight!!

[CDu]

I didn't realize len Elmore was doing this game... unreal

He has actually been the voice of reason in this one, with Webber being the loose cannon.

[gumbomoop]

Marshall with the rhythm dribble. Maybe he was literally right under the basket and had no choice, but otherwise, not smart.

[GGLC]

He didn't rebound he grabbed a loose ball on the floor.

My mistake; bench him, then.

[whereinthehellami]

Duke showing some toughness. Got to finish strong.

[CDu]

I think we will be in the bonus for the rest of the game now. That's a good thing. If we can keep up this level of effort, we should win.

[77devil]

He has actually been the voice of reason in this one, with Webber being the loose cannon.

2 Duke haters on the same announcing team. Hit the mute button.

[gumbomoop]

He has actually been the voice of reason in this one, with Webber being the loose cannon.

I agree. Shocking, but Len is pretty sensible compared to Webber.

[subzero02]

Allen is definitely hurt, he's not even trying to turn the corner

[rsvman]

they are still making threes at a good clip. we can't afford to not guard the line

[GGLC]

Thornton has been sloppy with the ball.

LOVED that alley-oop from Grayson to Marshall. I'm going to miss Marshall so much; what a long way he's come.

[CDu]

they are still making threes at a good clip. we can't afford to not guard the line

We are trying to guard the line, but our discipline has slipped occasionally. Overcommitting and getting burned on pump fakes.

[wilson]

Marshall Plumlee has been the difference-maker so far. Steadiness, leadership, fire, and strong play on both ends of the court. Really setting the tone for the whole team, especially here in the second half. What a great way for him to be finishing out his Duke career, however much of it is left. I'm immensely proud of him.

[NM Duke Fan]

The 3 can be better defended, there needs to be better anticipation that shooters are going to be setting up outside the arc.

As mentioned earleir, Allen just isn't quite his usual mobile self, and he was limping at one point. He might just be gutting it out. Hope to see Kennard catch fire.

Have to keep imposing Duke's will around the rim, both defensively and offensively. A clear strength, and especially now with the major foul trouble. Plumlee and Jeter are both bringing great energy, but they really can't both be in the game at the same time.

[CDu]

Double bonus now, one of their bigs has now fouled out, and their #2 big has 4 fouls.

[wilson]

Double bonus now, one of their bigs has now fouled out, and their #2 big has 4 fouls.Go to the rack, every time, the rest of the game. Post Ingram up with Marshall to clean up any messes.

[whereinthehellami]

Got to hit FTs!

[subzero02]

We just can't extend the lead past 10 points... Ingram should've dished to plumlee on that drive.. he was under the basket unguarded

[subzero02]

Please Ingram... make those fts

[whereinthehellami]

Arghh, Duke is not going to let me relax and enjoy the game.

[gumbomoop]

Marshall. Good heavens.

[rsvman]

We just can't extend the lead past 10 points... Ingram should've dished to plumlee on that drive.. he was under the basket unguarded

yep. that would've been an uncontested dunk.

need to hang on. that last the by Ponder was actually well defended.

[gocanes0506]

Luke is just having a bad game

[subzero02]

What was Matt thinking?

[GGLC]

What was Matt thinking?

Not sure where the foul was there.

[whereinthehellami]

Marshall!!

[subzero02]

Not sure where the foul was there.

He undercut him

[NM Duke Fan]

Plumlee has been THE key to the game!

[arnie]

Luke is just having a bad game

Tough March for him. Maybe he'll come through in last 4 minutes today.

[gumbomoop]

Need a couple of stops, get it to double-figure lead, just a little breathing room before final push and FT-contest.

[whereinthehellami]

Marshall with 20 and 7!

[subzero02]

The other 4 seeds should be glad that they didn't draw uncw... they are a scrappy team

[whereinthehellami]

BS call on Marshal.

[Mal]

Get it on this dunkfest.

[subzero02]

That was a block.. I can't stand Elmore

[BlueandWhite]

marshall with 20 and 7!

mp iii!!!

[whereinthehellami]

How do you give up 85 to this team?

[BlueandWhite]

That was a block.. I can't stand Elmore

Yes, figured we'd get Elmore for our game. Agree, a block. Credit to UNCW for making these 3s...missed FT by Thornton didn't help. Let's play some D here!!!

[subzero02]

Must make foul shots

[arnie]

Survived but gotta be exhausted.

[BlueandWhite]

Must make foul shots

Game, set & match

[whereinthehellami]

Win and advance!

[subzero02]

Survive and advance.... into the 2nd round

[cspan37421]

We refer you to the reply given in the case of Arkell v. Pressdram.

[Tjenkins]

Survive and advance... into the 2nd round

Yep, not pretty but I'll take it.

[wavedukefan70s]

Whew

[gumbomoop]

Schedule those guys next season. Veteran team, good early season OOC test.

[chadlee989]

Schedule those guys next season. Veteran team, good early season OOC test.

Agree that would be a great game for us next year

[wsb3]

Schedule those guys next season. Veteran team, good early season OOC test.

Better yet play them at their place. :)

[MartyClark]

Whew!!

I like this UNC-W team. Despite their size, they tested us (the royal "us").I think any further wins for Duke are gravy.

[91_92_01_10_15]

Anyone find the press conference?

[CDu]

Survive and advance. Hopefully we shoot better Saturday.

[devildeac]

I'm thinking our defensive rating will not go up with that showing :rolleyes: .

But our W-L %age will ;) .