Grayson/NBA Chatter?

[scottdude8]

So first off, I apologize if this thread isn't appropriate at this time or belongs inside another thread. Moderators, if this is the case please feel free to move or whatnot.

However, I thought it might be useful for us to have a thread designated to discussing Grayson's potential NBA future and decision this offseason (considering he's the only player with a legitimate decision to make in this regard, considering Ingram is 99.9% going pro). I say this especially because most indications from DBR, both on the board and in articles, seems to indicate that the expectation is for Grayson to return: in almost every article or discussion that revolves around the team and potential lineups for next year, Grayson is included without any disclaimers. My corresponding question is this: is there any information from those "in the know" that backs up the assumption that Grayson will return, or is this just a general consensus prediction amongst the DBR writers/board?

It seems that most mock drafts have Grayson going outside the lottery, anywhere in the 15-30 range. However, I'm wondering if Grayson might take into consideration that this year's draft is expected to be relatively weak, while next year's is expected to be stronger. But if Grayson wants to be a 4 year player with the potential to have his number retired (as I really, really, REALLY hope he does) then I guess none of that matters.

So, basically, what are the thoughts here, both amongst those who may have inside info and amongst those who have informed opinions on the matter?

[superdave]

So first off, I apologize if this thread isn't appropriate at this time or belongs inside another thread. Moderators, if this is the case please feel free to move or whatnot.

However, I thought it might be useful for us to have a thread designated to discussing Grayson's potential NBA future and decision this offseason (considering he's the only player with a legitimate decision to make in this regard, considering Ingram is 99.9% going pro). I say this especially because most indications from DBR, both on the board and in articles, seems to indicate that the expectation is for Grayson to return: in almost every article or discussion that revolves around the team and potential lineups for next year, Grayson is included without any disclaimers. My corresponding question is this: is there any information from those "in the know" that backs up the assumption that Grayson will return, or is this just a general consensus prediction amongst the DBR writers/board?

It seems that most mock drafts have Grayson going outside the lottery, anywhere in the 15-30 range. However, I'm wondering if Grayson might take into consideration that this year's draft is expected to be relatively weak, while next year's is expected to be stronger. But if Grayson wants to be a 4 year player with the potential to have his number retired (as I really, really, REALLY hope he does) then I guess none of that matters.

So, basically, what are the thoughts here, both amongst those who may have inside info and amongst those who have informed opinions on the matter?


My personal opinion is if you are going to be a first round pick, you should go pro. You can always come back to finish your degree.

As for Grayson specifically, I'll just list the reasons why I think he should go -

Hard to personally improve on this season.
Likely wont have the opportunity to play PG at Duke next season which would round out his skill set.
Minutes may go down next season with a more crowded roster.
Will be constantly hounded by Espn as "hated".
Will be constantly hounded during road games by fans.
Risk of injury.



I do not know the kid. Never met him. But here are some things he might consider if he has any inclination of coming back -

Chance at another title.
Chance at being NPOY.
Possibly get his degree in 3 years.
Chance to move into lottery pick range.

[kAzE]

No insider info here, but I'll happily support Grayson in whatever he decides to do. If he comes back, then we might have the best front court AND the best back court in the country. I think it would very likely be the best mix of talent and experience that we've seen on a college roster in a very long time. Our 2nd five would probably be able to compare favorably with most starting lineups in the ACC.

But if he goes pro, which I think is the smart decision with all things considered, I honestly don't see that much drop off. Sure, we would have less guard depth, but Matt, Derryck, Luke, and Frank is still an elite and deep back court. Luke, in particular looks ready to just blow up next year, especially if Grayson goes pro. He plays a totally different style of basketball, but in my opinion is just as effective (if not more so) than Grayson in terms of scoring. We would lose Grayson's leadership and ability to fire up his teammates, but I don't imagine the offensive or defensive efficiency would take a significant hit if he leaves. It sure is nice to have this much talent. We can afford to lose a potential first team all american and basically shrug it off.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

I expect he will lead us to a championship this year, in epic fashion. Having nothing left to prove he decides to move on to the NBA and let the young guys have a go at it next year.

Go Duke!!!

[BluePanda]

I think all those who saw the end of the game yesterday have to expect he's planning to declare. I wouldn't expect to see that type of reaction from him losing a 16 point lead but can definitely see it for realizing the finality of his ACC career.

As for Grayson's NBA stock, he should definitely at least declare. The new draft rules this year allow him to attend the combine and workout with a team while still being able to withdraw if he doesn't like the result, so there's no reason not to do it. As of now, DraftExpress, probably the best in the business, has him at 29 (one above Brice Johnson), so it's risky.

On the other hand he has to balance that risk against staying and potentially falling further in future drafts. I think we all acknowledge next year will be a monster draft, so if he stays, it'll be for two years until the 2018 draft, which itself will also likely be better than the one this year.

Lastly, he will have to think about what he can work on. He's not going to get bigger and his shooting is already a strength for him. The main thing, based on reading draft analysis and my own admittedly-amateur observations, is that he will have to work on his driving skills in the NBA, both in terms of not developing tunnel vision toward the basket as well as learning to finesse/shoot over the tall trees. Obviously, the KY game hurt his stock quite a bit (5+ draft spots, imo), and he'll have overcome that because the NBA isn't short on athletic, tall shot blockers. Can he improve on this? Probably, but it will come at the cost of 1) losing the "youth" card, 2) risk of injury, 3) not developing as he hopes.

TL;DR: If he gets a 1st round grade at the combine/workout, he should leave even if it's pick 29.

[elvis14]

I love Grayson Allen. He's everything that's right about Duke basketball. And I think it's shameful that ESPN as decided to vilify such a great kid.

One thing I've come to realize about how the NBA works currently is that two things come into play if your a kid who will have a future in the NBA and determining if you're ready:

1) Can you get drafted in the 1st round (guaranteed contract)
2) Can you make a roster

That's about it. If you meet those two conditions, you are NBA ready. Heck even if you get drafted in the 2nd round and can make a roster you might be ready. A guy like Ingram doesn't need to stay and get stronger to be NBA ready. He'll get drafted in the first round and make a roster. Even if he doesn't play much his first couple of years, he should still go. Same for Grayson Allen (who doesn't need to get stronger but has some things like ball handling he can improve). If I understand this right, the NBA rookie contract is 3-4 years (with the team having the option on the 4th year). It's a decent contract but it's not the really big payoff. That comes with your second contract. So it behooves players to leave for the NBA as soon as they can get drafted and stick on a roster so that they can start that 3-4 year count down to the "big" money.

I was talking with a friend about it this morning and there's a couple of things that would be great IMHO


Have a rule similar to football where players have to be X years out of college or Y years old. For football X = 3 and Y = 21. For hoops maybe it's 2 and 20 but something more than 1 would be great.
Change the rookie contract rule so that a player has the opportunity to negotiate with their team after 2 years for a better contract (or maybe have a rule where it goes into arbitration and a new value is assigned). That way players can still get more of a payday after 2 years and they may not be so intent on starting that clock ASAP.
Allow players to go pro straight out of high school. Allow them to have expenses paid for try out purposes (and perhaps a small stipend) without losing their amateur status. So if a kid tries out and either doesn't make the team or thinks he need to go to school instead of playing D league, he can do that. Not sure how the timing works out but this can work with #1 above in that if he decides to go to school he's locked in for X years.


Not all of that is GA specific obviously but since it's been top of mind for me this morning thought I'd mention it. Obviously this is driven by the finances. If a kid loves the college experience and decides to stay for his own reason, fantastic. I'd love to see GA in a Duke uniform next year.

[Channing]

My unabashedly biased view is that he should come back. Being at the end of the first round means he likely spends the year in the D-league improving and getting better. Yes, he will get paid, but (and I know nothing of his family situation) I have not heard that he came from a particularly challenging upbringing (economically). If next year is stacked and he drops to the second round, I don't see that as such a bad thing compared to a first round selection. Yes, he is guaranteed 1mm/yr for three years, but, that is not the exorbitant riches one hopes to make in the NBA. Second round may required less (450/500k)/yr for 2 years, but you aren't locked into years 3-5 necessarily.

Also (and again, as a fan, I am biased) I wouldn't sleep on the possibility of having your number in the rafters in Cameron, especially for a kid who has said Duke has been his dream since he was a kid.

There are always a number of first round or border line first round guys who come back - I could see Grayson being one of them.

[BandAlum83]

K-Ville Blue Tenting 2009
K-Ville Blue Tenting 2010
K-Ville Blue Tenting 2011
K-Ville Blue Tenting 2012

I don't even know what that means, lol.

But congratulations!

DUMB 1981
DUMB 1982
DUMB 1983

DUKE PEP BAND 1981
DUKE PEP BAND 1982
DUKE PEP BAND 1983

HOUSE CC 1980-1983 (I slept in a bed)

[weezie]

My unabashedly biased view is that he should come back. Being at the end of the first round means he likely spends the year in the D-league improving and getting better...

True, there's the nut of it. Is the D-league coaching going to help him, that's a question he might be asking himself, too.

[cato]

I got a strong sense yesterday when Grayson fouled out that he did not expect to play in the ACC again. It was reinforced by K's sideline and post-game support.

Now, please pass some tea leaves to read.

[CDu]

I'm surprised that you haven't seen more suggestion of Allen leaving, as quite a few folks on DBR seem to think he's going. In fact, it has been a topic of discussion in a number of threads.

Obviously, none of us know for sure (unless Allen is a contributor to DBR, and even he may not know for sure). But my suspicion is that he goes pro. From a "goal of playing in the NBA" perspective, this will almost certainly be his best chance relative to the draft. He's healthy, it's a weaker draft class, and there's almost no way he can play significantly better than he did this year. He's not going to get taller, and height is really the only question for him with regard to the NBA.

It's possible that he's the outlier kid who prefers to stay in college in spite of his draft stock. That would certainly be a pleasant surprise. But I'm taking the mindset that he is almost surely going pro, and will be very pleasantly surprised if he does not do so.

And yes, of course, he should do whatever he wants to do. I'm just not in any place to know exactly what he wants to do, and I'm using "the norm" as the only guide I have as to what I think he'll do.

[BeachBlueDevil]

It's tough to prognosticate what Allen will do. He came out yesterday full of emotion and one could assume that he was upset because it was his final ACC tournament or that he was just so upset because he hates losing. We could play the guessing game about his emotion and hug with K all day long, but I don't think its really anything more than GA being upset after a tough loss.

As someone pointed out he is slotted to go 29th on the DraftExpress Big Board and the NCAA's could only help his stock and hurt it very little. Hell, he could have came out last year after the title game and have went late first round, but he stuck around for this year. Coming back next year MIGHT hurt his stock because Duke will simply be loaded with talent, but I don't think it will hurt Allen's playing time and I think he could see time running the point, him and DT could split time like Cook and Jones did last year and we all know how that worked out. However 2017 Draft (http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2017/) class is suppose to be loaded with talent and that might be a deciding factor on whether GA comes out or not this year.

Allen has been a Duke fan all of his life and he seems like the type of guy who looks at losing in this ACC tournament this year as unfinished business and would want to comeback and win it. Also, I wouldn't put it past him as a guy who wanted a 2nd National Championship under his belt. So it will be interesting to see what he decides for his future as a Duke Blue Devil.

[dukelifer]

My unabashedly biased view is that he should come back. Being at the end of the first round means he likely spends the year in the D-league improving and getting better. Yes, he will get paid, but (and I know nothing of his family situation) I have not heard that he came from a particularly challenging upbringing (economically). If next year is stacked and he drops to the second round, I don't see that as such a bad thing compared to a first round selection. Yes, he is guaranteed 1mm/yr for three years, but, that is not the exorbitant riches one hopes to make in the NBA. Second round may required less (450/500k)/yr for 2 years, but you aren't locked into years 3-5 necessarily.

Also (and again, as a fan, I am biased) I wouldn't sleep on the possibility of having your number in the rafters in Cameron, especially for a kid who has said Duke has been his dream since he was a kid.

There are always a number of first round or border line first round guys who come back - I could see Grayson being one of them.

1MM/year for 3 years to start your life is still a lot of money. But that said, to get the second contract- you need to make it in tough and competitive league. He has a lot working against him. Because of where he came from, his height and the color of his skin- he will be immediately compared to other white US trained guards. A rare few have made it in the league recently- but most have played the point. Teams like longer wing players. JJ who will be the most natural comp is taller than Grayson and had to transform himself. Grayson success will come down to his three point shooting prowess. He has a beautiful stroke and should be able to hit from the NBA distance. Still he is going to have to work hard to get that second contract - but all indications are that he has the mental makeup. But he may not get many chances to shine unless he comes out on fire. I have no doubt that he will grow more as a person by staying at Duke.I truly believe the maturity gained be even one more season will pay huge dividends down the road but he may not see that. Boston, Golden State, San Antonio would be great landing spots. The NBA life is not easy. Reality sets in very fast. It is a tough call.

[CDu]

1MM/year for 3 years to start your life is still a lot of money. But that said, to get the second contract- you need to make it in tough and competitive league. He has a lot working against him. Because of where he came from, his height and the color of his skin- he will be immediately compared to other white US trained guards. A rare few have made it in the league recently- but most have played the point. Teams like longer wing players. JJ who will be the most natural comp is taller than Grayson and had to transform himself. Grayson success will come down to his three point shooting prowess. He has a beautiful stroke and should be able to hit from the NBA distance. Still he is going to have to work hard to get that second contract - but all indications are that he has the mental makeup. But he may not get many chances to shine unless he comes out on fire. I have no doubt that he will grow more as a person by staying at Duke.I truly believe the maturity gained be even one more season will pay huge dividends down the road but he may not see that. Boston, Golden State, San Antonio would be great landing spots. The NBA life is not easy. Reality sets in very fast. It is a tough call.

I would argue that Redick is a pretty bad comp for Allen. Allen is much stronger and more explosive athletically than Redick ever has been. Conversely, Redick was a more versatile pure shooter than Allen is. Aside from being 6'4"-ish, white, Duke players who could shoot well and scored a bunch, there is very little similarity between them.

[Lauderdevil]

I love Grayson Allen. He's everything that's right about Duke basketball. And I think it's shameful that ESPN as decided to vilify such a great kid.


Agree with all three sentences. And while I agree it's shameful how he's been vilified, and that's got to be difficult for him to deal with, there actually is an upside to it. He gets far more media attention than many players who will be drafted ahead of him; he's become a reasonably recognizable name in college basketball. If he were to come back next season, he'd become something of a household name, with his every action making the top of SportsCenter. Most of that would consist of spectacular plays; occasionally it would include a dumb foul or an overreaction to a bad call. OK, fine. But most people would come to "hate" him only in the way "Duke hate" works: we hate you because you are talented, because you work hard, because you have success. That kind of "hate" is easy to reverse.

If Grayson enters the NBA next season, he'll be pretty much like all other NBA players at his level: fairly anonymous, down the bench, working for an opportunity and hoping to get it before his rookie contract expires. If he stays at Duke another year, he'll go in as a celebrity. He'll be one of the few rookies who will have people buying tickets in Sacramento and Memphis to see him. He'll be one of the few to sell jerseys. He'll be invited to the dunk contest. And, here's the $$ part: he'll get plenty of endorsements.

I'd love to see an analysis of whether Grayson would, with the above assumptions, make more money over his career if he goes pro this year vs. next (or the year after). Maybe it's true he'd maximize value by going now. But I don't think that's clearly the case. And if in fact he could maximize his value by waiting, and at the same time be able to enjoy the best years of his life as a student, graduate college, become a celebrity, get his jersey in rafters -- well, seems to me that's a pretty good outcome.

[dukelifer]

I would argue that Redick is a pretty bad comp for Allen. Allen is much stronger and more explosive athletically than Redick ever has been. Conversely, Redick was a more versatile pure shooter than Allen is. Aside from being 6'4"-ish, white, Duke players who could shoot well and scored a bunch, there is very little similarity between them.

I agree with you but the comps have already been made. In some ways it helps Grayson as JJ has succeeded but also hurts because the shooting standard is high. Who would you compare with Grayson as we know that game is played all the time?

[CDu]

I agree with you but the comps have already been made. In some ways it helps Grayson as JJ has succeeded but also hurts because the shooting standard is high. Who would you compare with Grayson as we know that game is played all the time?

The comps have only been made by folks who have no idea what they are talking about or are looking for a lazy comparison.

If I had to compare Allen to anyone, it would be closer to a Dwyane Wade type of player. Not as good, obviously, but that's a better comp for his style of play and physical tools. Or, if one wants a white player (for whatever reason) to to compare with, Bob Sura makes more sense.

But NBA scouts aren't going to be looking at Allen and thinking about JJ Redick. That's what some fans and media members may do, but they are not who will be making draft decisions.

[BandAlum83]

Agree with all three sentences. And while I agree it's shameful how he's been vilified, and that's got to be difficult for him to deal with, there actually is an upside to it. He gets far more media attention than many players who will be drafted ahead of him; he's become a reasonably recognizable name in college basketball. If he were to come back next season, he'd become something of a household name, with his every action making the top of SportsCenter. Most of that would consist of spectacular plays; occasionally it would include a dumb foul or an overreaction to a bad call. OK, fine. But most people would come to "hate" him only in the way "Duke hate" works: we hate you because you are talented, because you work hard, because you have success. That kind of "hate" is easy to reverse.

If Grayson enters the NBA next season, he'll be pretty much like all other NBA players at his level: fairly anonymous, down the bench, working for an opportunity and hoping to get it before his rookie contract expires. If he stays at Duke another year, he'll go in as a celebrity. He'll be one of the few rookies who will have people buying tickets in Sacramento and Memphis to see him. He'll be one of the few to sell jerseys. He'll be invited to the dunk contest. And, here's the $$ part: he'll get plenty of endorsements.

I'd love to see an analysis of whether Grayson would, with the above assumptions, make more money over his career if he goes pro this year vs. next (or the year after). Maybe it's true he'd maximize value by going now. But I don't think that's clearly the case. And if in fact he could maximize his value by waiting, and at the same time be able to enjoy the best years of his life as a student, graduate college, become a celebrity, get his jersey in rafters -- well, seems to me that's a pretty good outcome.

Fascinating. Really great points made here. It's almost like the Tebow factor. His celebrity and notoriety got him further than his talent did.

In Grayson's case, his significant talent will make him even more likely to stick. And maybe he does make more money lifetime by waiting.

[53n206]

My son told me that he read a an article in the journal (I assume the Wall Street Journal) that discussed the potential for injuries in basketball players. I think he said that the study was done at MIT and the conclusion stated that a player like Russell Westbrook was more likely to be injured than any other. This was related to his rebounding and driving to the basket. Grayson reminds me as much as anybody I've seen recently of Westbrook. Goodness I hope he never gets injured.

[Matches]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2016/02/14/the-nbas-endorsement-all-stars-2016/#26d4cf375096

Some info re the NBA players who make the most $ in endorsements. The only guy you'll find on the list who stayed in college more than 2 years is Steph Curry, and he became a household name only in the last few years.

The best way to get a lot of endorsements in the NBA (or any sport, really) is to be a good player. Every now and then someone like Tebow comes along and gains a celebrity that is independent of their actual performance, but it doesn't happen often. Maybe Jeremy Lin as an NBA example?

Also: Grayson's endorsement $ next year should he remain at Duke will be $0.

[revmel53]

Grayson's story is amazing really. First to commit; sat on bench until he was really needed; displayed the talent, fire, and courage that propelled us to a championship; and then dispelled any rumor that it was a one-shot deal by coming back and playing day in and day out like he finished last year. It's unfortunate that he displayed lack of judgment on the two tripping calls that went against him. Whether he goes out this year or next, he deserves to go out a hero - not a villain. But anyone who comes to Duke has to know that there is a bulls-eye on his back, as a hated Dukie. My best to him, regardless of what he chooses to do. Now, let's get some rest, and go win it all!

[dukelifer]

The comps have only been made by folks who have no idea what they are talking about or are looking for a lazy comparison.

If I had to compare Allen to anyone, it would be closer to a Dwyane Wade type of player. Not as good, obviously, but that's a better comp for his style of play and physical tools. Or, if one wants a white player (for whatever reason) to to compare with, Bob Sura makes more sense.

But NBA scouts aren't going to be looking at Allen and thinking about JJ Redick. That's what some fans and media members may do, but they are not who will be making draft decisions.

Well they are thinking about who he can guard and given his size which is smaller than most wings- what is his elite skillset. If he can drive in the NBA like he can in college- then he will be special. That remains to be seen. His deep shooting is above average and that is probably what is making teams interested. So I contend that his ability to shoot the ball from deep will determine his staying power in the NBA and his driving is just gravy.

[BandAlum83]

I remember back in the day when there was discussion around Danny Ferry leaving early and deciding to stay. Is it possible for College players to take out significant insurance policies against career ending injuries based on future income? At the time, we figured Lloyd's of London is willing to take a policy out on just about anything.

With the specific first contract values predetermined by draft order, I'd imagine the potential income portion is easier to estimate now. And actuaries can easily figure the probabilities around injury. So......

Are players able to take out insurance policies like this, and how common and expensive are they?

What type of "disability" Insurance policies can the pros take? I have the impression that the teams themselves, in essence, insure the players in a de facto manner by guaranteeing contracts.

Any Sports Attorneys or Underwriters out here?

[Channing]

The NCAA offers catastrophic insurance to certain topflight player (or, has a catastrophic injury insurance program), but it has strict parameters. I think the requirement is that the injury must prevent you from playing professionally at all. There is no consideration for diminished ability.

[BandAlum83]

The NCAA offers catastrophic insurance to certain topflight player (or, has a catastrophic injury insurance program), but it has strict parameters. I think the requirement is that the injury must prevent you from playing professionally at all. There is no consideration for diminished ability.

Who pays the premiums? Is it up to the athlete or there family, which could be a significant hardship to many families. Any idea on the max payout?

[sagegrouse]

I would argue that Redick is a pretty bad comp for Allen. Allen is much stronger and more explosive athletically than Redick ever has been. Conversely, Redick was a more versatile pure shooter than Allen is. Aside from being 6'4"-ish, white, Duke players who could shoot well and scored a bunch, there is very little similarity between them.


I agree with you but the comps have already been made. In some ways it helps Grayson as JJ has succeeded but also hurts because the shooting standard is high. Who would you compare with Grayson as we know that game is played all the time?

DukeLifer: No.

No NBA scout would dare compare Grayson to JJ. He is a much different player. If you want a white guy as a comp -- Rex Chapman -- who Kornheiser used to refer to as "the incandescent Rex Chapman" -- get it? -- when he was with the Bullets.

The Duke comparison for Grayson comes from the "way-back" machine -- Jeff Mullins. Jeff was an inside-outside threat, very dangerous around the basket, and smooth as butter. Mullins played in the Skinny-Minny era when no ones used weights, but he was no weakling. Jeff was also quick and strong enough to make the semifinals of the NBA 1-on-1 contest back in the early '70's.

[luburch]

Agree with all three sentences. And while I agree it's shameful how he's been vilified, and that's got to be difficult for him to deal with, there actually is an upside to it. He gets far more media attention than many players who will be drafted ahead of him; he's become a reasonably recognizable name in college basketball. If he were to come back next season, he'd become something of a household name, with his every action making the top of SportsCenter. Most of that would consist of spectacular plays; occasionally it would include a dumb foul or an overreaction to a bad call. OK, fine. But most people would come to "hate" him only in the way "Duke hate" works: we hate you because you are talented, because you work hard, because you have success. That kind of "hate" is easy to reverse.

If Grayson enters the NBA next season, he'll be pretty much like all other NBA players at his level: fairly anonymous, down the bench, working for an opportunity and hoping to get it before his rookie contract expires. If he stays at Duke another year, he'll go in as a celebrity. He'll be one of the few rookies who will have people buying tickets in Sacramento and Memphis to see him. He'll be one of the few to sell jerseys. He'll be invited to the dunk contest. And, here's the $$ part: he'll get plenty of endorsements.

I'd love to see an analysis of whether Grayson would, with the above assumptions, make more money over his career if he goes pro this year vs. next (or the year after). Maybe it's true he'd maximize value by going now. But I don't think that's clearly the case. And if in fact he could maximize his value by waiting, and at the same time be able to enjoy the best years of his life as a student, graduate college, become a celebrity, get his jersey in rafters -- well, seems to me that's a pretty good outcome.

I'm sorry, but I pretty much disagree with everything that was written here.

If Grayson came back next year he would likely be a pre-season favorite for POY. I agree with that. However, I think his individual stats would ultimately suffer because of how the team next year is shaping up. People who hate Grayson now are not going to change why they hate him. He could play 100 more games for Duke and never commit another intentional foul and people would still label him as dirty and a flopper. There's simply nothing he can do on a college level to change that anymore. It's an absolute shame that he's stuck with that label because he is a tremendous basketball player.

For reasons previously discussed, Grayson will likely go lower in next years draft. No one (outside of Duke fans and the NBA team he plays for) is going to buy tickets to an NBA game solely because Grayson is playing. I love the kid, one of my favorite all-time Duke players, but people only do that for LeBron, Curry, and company. His endorsements will be the same as they are now.

If Grayson wants to return to Duke, I would be thrilled. I just think it's his best option to leave now.

[sagegrouse]

Well they are thinking about who he can guard and given his size which is smaller than most wings- what is his elite skillset. If he can drive in the NBA like he can in college- then he will be special. That remains to be seen. His deep shooting is above average and that is probably what is making teams interested. So I contend that his ability to shoot the ball from deep will determine his staying power in the NBA and his driving is just gravy.

Grayson is very strong and will become stronger. That makes a huge difference on defense.

[CDu]

Grayson is very strong and will become stronger. That makes a huge difference on defense.

He is also very quick, which will help on defense. And he is able to create his own shot.

[sagegrouse]

He is also very quick, which will help on defense. And he is able to create his own shot.

CDu, despite my comments above, I think that Grayson is well-advised to return to Duke. He is the most emotional player I can remember since at least Hurley, who was a four-year player. The emotion drives his game and intensity, but also holds him back, as we have recently seen in spades. Another year and he will be stronger and more mature.

That's my story and I am sticking to it.

Kindly,
Sage

[JPtheGame]

Grayson up one spot to 28 in the latest draft projections. The idea that he can't improve his stock is silly. Look at buddy hield at #9. Similar players and where would you have drafted buddy 2 yrs ago?

Stay in school. Duke might be better than the Suns next year anyway.

[uh_no]

CDu, despite my comments above, I think that Grayson is well-advised to return to Duke. He is the most emotional player I can remember since at least Hurley, who was a four-year player. The emotion drives his game and intensity, but also holds him back, as we have recently seen in spades. Another year and he will be stronger and more mature.

That's my story and I am sticking to it.

Kindly,
Sage

Furthering, he still needs a lot of work on his mid-range game, IMO. He has two go-tos....a three, and taking it all the way in. How many times does he go flying into the lane, pop back and hit a 15 footer? Ever?

He's going to need more tools than he currently has. I'm sure he could go to the league and learn that, no doubt....but IMO it's a big enough hole that he should spend at least another year working on it...especially given he's on the smaller side.

If he's a sure fire first rounder or lottery pick, he should go...but I don't think he is. He's on the bubble, if you will. If he goes, all the best. If he stays, i'll enjoy watching his fire for another year.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Also, I wouldn't put it past him as a guy who wanted a 2nd National Championship under his belt.
One slight correction: If he comes back next for next season, he'll be looking at getting his 3rd National Championship under his belt. Not even Laettner an Hurley did that! http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif

On a serious note, with the new rules, certainly he'll declare and go through the process. Biggest problem is, it only takes one NBA team to promise him they will draft him in the first round. Even if they lie to him, it only takes one.

I will not be holding my breath until he decides. Let's win our next game, and then the ones after that (five games) this season. Next year will take care of itself. http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif

[fraggler]

True, there's the nut of it. Is the D-league coaching going to help him, that's a question he might be asking himself, too.

Tyus spent some time in the D-league and now is getting some decent minutes for the Wolves. I certainly don't think the D-league hurt him. In the D-league, you are playing against pros, even if they are marginal. I'd say that would help Grayson prep for playing against NBA caliber players more than dominating a weaker ACC next season. Think of it as an internship vs a class. You learn doing both, but the internship tends to have much better real world application than even the best taught class.

[Rich]

Biggest problem is, it only takes one NBA team to promise him they will draft him in the first round. Even if they lie to him, it only takes one.

I wonder how much Coach K plays a role in whether that would happen. It would seem K would be a great advocate for finding the right information and, through his repuation, not allowing this to happen. I would think that our guys have a pretty good idea of when and where they're going to be drafted based on K's contacts and connections in The League, but I guess I could be naive.

[fraggler]

I'm sorry, but I pretty much disagree with everything that was written here.

If Grayson came back next year he would likely be a pre-season favorite for POY. I agree with that. However, I think his individual stats would ultimately suffer because of how the team next year is shaping up. People who hate Grayson now are not going to change why they hate him. He could play 100 more games for Duke and never commit another intentional foul and people would still label him as dirty and a flopper. There's simply nothing he can do on a college level to change that anymore. It's an absolute shame that he's stuck with that label because he is a tremendous basketball player.

For reasons previously discussed, Grayson will likely go lower in next years draft. No one (outside of Duke fans and the NBA team he plays for) is going to buy tickets to an NBA game solely because Grayson is playing. I love the kid, one of my favorite all-time Duke players, but people only do that for LeBron, Curry, and company. His endorsements will be the same as they are now.

If Grayson wants to return to Duke, I would be thrilled. I just think it's his best option to leave now.

I agree with this. His best chance at sticking in the NBA is to get into the first round and be guaranteed several years of development and chances to break into a rotation. And based on everything already discussed, his best chance of going in the first round is after this season. After that, it is up to him to develop his game and earn his shot at a second contract. I think NBA execs will be easier to convince of his possible upside/development now after only one real season of play than after another where there are super high expectations (he is already first team ACC and second team AA and has played a vital role on a Championship team).

[oldnavy]

I'm not so sure Grayson's "driving" ability is ready for NBA yet. He really doesn't out quick most defenders (Kyrie Irving, he ain't!), but rather "bulls" his way into the lane... and then he is decent at finishing, but not great.. at least yet, IMO. His jump shot is very nice, but he really isn't creating his own shot off the dribble, and he is not the catch and shoot player that JJ became or that Trajon Langdon was either... yet.

I'd love for him to stay, but that is just my selfishness.

I think that between, Grayson, Coach K, Grayson's parents... he will get great advice and do the best thing based on his professional goals.

I don't foresee this being another Avery type situation, where Grayson goes against good, sound advice. If Grayson wants to go, and K thinks it's a good move then I think he goes. If Grayson is undecided and K thinks he should wait to work on maturity, and ball handling skills, mid-range shots, etc.. then I think Grayson will listen and come back...

I don't want Grayson to leave because he is being booed and vilified. That would be the wrong reason IMO... I don't think it will factor into his decision, but some on the board have mentioned it as a reason to go... I couldn't disagree more. You don't let what others think of you or how others perceive you to influence these life decisions... bad, bad idea. But again, I doubt that he will be influenced by the negativity.

[jipops]

True, there's the nut of it. Is the D-league coaching going to help him, that's a question he might be asking himself, too.

In one example, it did wonders for Danny Green's career. He languished on the bench after coming out of "u"nc. After spending a few months in the D-league he became the starter for an NBA finals team. Obviously that did a lot for him, arguably more than his time in Chapel Hill.

I think Grayson would be turning down a lot of money if he stayed. The likelihood of him improving his current estimated draft position is small. I'd love to see him back. But I think it makes more sense for him to go.

[JPtheGame]

The likelihood of him improving his current estimated draft position is small. I'd love to see him back. But I think it makes more sense for him to go.

I've seen this comment quite a bit and I truly don't understand it. Why do people think he couldn't improve his draft stock? How does staying, getting stronger and more skilled hurt his draft position? I recognize the reports of a stronger draft next year but what if he stays 2 more? What if he develops a mid range game, tighter handle, strength, and more winning experience and leadership development under the best coach in the world? Nobody is drafting Hield and valentine 2 yrs ago and now they are lottery picks.

I'm not being critical of the opinion or statement. I'm genuinely confused about someone develops that idea that there is zero way to move up from the very late first round.

[Bob Green]

I think that between, Grayson, Coach K, Grayson's parents... he will get great advice and do the best thing based on his professional goals.



A solid discussion topic with lots of good points being made none better than Old Navy's point above. I want what's best for Grayson Allen. Yes, I am selfish and hope GA's inner circle decides it is best for GA to return to Duke for his junior season, but in the end I hope GA does what is best for GA.

[oldnavy]

I've seen this comment quite a bit and I truly don't understand it. Why do people think he couldn't improve his draft stock? How does staying, getting stronger and more skilled hurt his draft position? I recognize the reports of a stronger draft next year but what if he stays 2 more? What if he develops a mid range game, tighter handle, strength, and more winning experience and leadership development under the best coach in the world? Nobody is drafting Hield and valentine 2 yrs ago and now they are lottery picks.

I'm not being critical of the opinion or statement. I'm genuinely confused about someone develops that idea that there is zero way to move up from the very late first round.

I think because we see so many kids drafted on "potential" and I think that Grayson's situation is completely different in that he isn't projecting a ton of "potential", but rather he is being "evaluated" on his skill level now. (If that makes any sense??)

I guess the difference is that some kids get drafted before they have really shown that much at the college level because they project talent at the NBA level. Grayson in my opinion has the opposite problem. Clearly he is showing great talent at the college level, the question is ... is he projecting or does he have NBA talent and will that improve by staying at Duke?

I think that he absolutely could raise his draft stock by staying. I also think that he could do that if he went to the NBA and spent time in the developmental league.

[JPtheGame]

Makes sense. Case in point, skal from UK has shown nothing....top 10 right now

[oldnavy]

Makes sense. Case in point, skal from UK has shown nothing...top 10 right now

Yea and then you get to kids like Brandon who shows talent at this level, but you look at him and think....WOW! How good is that kid going to be in 5 years after he "grows up"?

I still say, baring some unforeseen bad event that I will not mention so as to not jinx him, BI is going to be a beast of a NBA player...

[dukelifer]

DukeLifer: No.

No NBA scout would dare compare Grayson to JJ. He is a much different player. If you want a white guy as a comp -- Rex Chapman -- who Kornheiser used to refer to as "the incandescent Rex Chapman" -- get it? -- when he was with the Bullets.

The Duke comparison for Grayson comes from the "way-back" machine -- Jeff Mullins. Jeff was an inside-outside threat, very dangerous around the basket, and smooth as butter. Mullins played in the Skinny-Minny era when no ones used weights, but he was no weakling. Jeff was also quick and strong enough to make the semifinals of the NBA 1-on-1 contest back in the early '70's.

This got off the rails a bit for me. My question is how Grayson will fit in the current NBA. He is likely not going to be a point guard so he will be a small off guard. Could he be Rex Chapman? Other than the off- the - field issues- that could be possible. However, Chapman was picked 8th by Charlotte- which was a second year franchise. Hence he was expected to play from Day 1 and did. If Grayson gets a chance to start from day 1- he will show his stuff. But he is not projected as a starter or the 8th pick and will need to come in for spot minutes on likely a good team. So the clock is ticking. He will need to show what he can do when playing in that second or third unit. So he sits - maybe goes to the D league where he will likely dominate as no one really plays D there and then see if he can crack the rotation toward the end of the year. I am sure he will have some heart to hearts with Nolan. Nolan was drafted 21st - had comparable stats to Grayson when he entered the league and struggled to get his chance- and then injuries and bad luck knocked him back and out. It is a very tough game. Allen is a tough kid- but a lot has to go right when you don't have an elite skillset. His shooting is better than Nolan's and I still think that will keep him in the league but he will be expected to shoot it from deep. So Allen can start his professional life and he may end up sticking in the NBA or go to Europe. The guaranteed money looks to be there and when you are starting your professional life- that is very hard to pass up. He will likely go because of that- but his longer term NBA prospects (which is what I was trying to understand) will depend a lot on his ability to shoot from deep as I don't expect him to be an elite defender. There is no question he will get drafted- and it looks to be in the first round. But can he get the second contract? A lot will need to go right.

[g-money]

If I had to compare Allen to anyone, it would be closer to a Dwyane Wade type of player. Not as good, obviously, but that's a better comp for his style of play and physical tools.

You took the words right out of my mouth (or keyboard, I suppose). A young DWade is the NBA player Grayson reminds me of most. To be fair, Wade is/was probably slightly quicker laterally. However, Grayson's a better outside shooter.

Grayson has the athleticism and skill to play in the NBA. He's got the size to be an NBA 2. He's got a true warrior mentality that NBA scouts love. He's had an awesome showcase year where he outplayed the projected #2 draft pick for most of the season. He's already a National Champion at the collegiate level.

It pains me to say this, but if he's projected to be a first rounder, he should go pro. There's simply not much upside to staying in school another year. My $0.02.

(If he does declare, I'll be eternally grateful for the game he had against Wisconsin last year. I just re-watched the highlights last night. No matter what happens this season, they can't take that natty away from us! :) )

[cato]

He is also very quick, which will help on defense. And he is able to create his own shot.

Yes. The thing that stood out to me most this year was Grayson's ability to create his own shot despite being the focal point of the defense. Add that to his free throw and long range three point shooting, and I hope that he can be a scorer in the NBA.

[Wander]

I think it's 50/50. To oversimplify a lot, if you're projected to go in the lottery you probably go, and if you're projected to go second round or undrafted you probably stay. Projected at the bottom of the first round, which Allen is, is a gray area. I don't really buy the "he won't go any higher" argument, though. I think he could rise, stay the same, or fall after another 1 or 2 years.

[Jeffrey]

I think he could rise, stay the same, or fall after another 1 or 2 years.

Your prediction is highly probable.

[fuse]

I expect Grayson to leave and look forward to being pleasantly surprised if he returns.

I echo comments above about Grayson making the best decision for him and benefitting from great advice.

My expectation is solely based on thinking Grayson will be drafted somewhere in the first round with a guaranteed contract.

[BluDvlsN1]

Grayson, is a well rounded young man, with good insights and strong core values.

Last year as a freshman, he was patient and waited for the game/game time to come to him.

I believe he will see the pro game in the same light.

He clearly has a strong relationship with K, and he will know, where better can he develop his game for the next level.

Whether it be maturity, leadership skills, improving on finishing at the rim, or?

Coach will give him the best advice for his future.

[Wander]

Your prediction is highly probable.

Hahaha, fair. Let me add "with about equal probability" then to the end of the sentence.

[BandAlum83]

Hahaha, fair. Let me add "with about equal probability" then to the end of the sentence.

He may or may not leave early.

[Indoor66]

He may or may not leave early.

I have to take issue with that either/or thinking. I am sure that someone on the board can elaborate on an alternative scenario.

[cspan37421]

... I think that Grayson is well-advised to return to Duke. He is the most emotional player I can remember since at least Hurley, who was a four-year player. The emotion drives his game and intensity, but also holds him back, as we have recently seen in spades. Another year and he will be stronger and more mature.

Everyone at Duke was a 4-year player through the Hurley era. It wasn't until who - Elton Brand? - that we had an early departure. That was several years after Bobby Hurley.

Not that I disgree with you about emotions. I think he mostly keeps them in check. Never saw him get in a fight yet but he has done some sneaky retaliatory stuff that many consider dirty. Checking that stuff would be smart; not sure he has to stay at Duke to do that. Only two clear instances of it, but I think a few more attempts.

The biggest thing it seems to me is that what does he have left to prove ... other than that he can always turn the other cheek? Not sure one more season at Duke will help him show off any more of his game. Certainly not in scoring! Now, if he could do all that and get NDPOY, well, now we're talking. But even then that might be discounted since he's "so short." (ha).

[Dukehky]

Everyone at Duke was a 4-year player through the Hurley era. It wasn't until who - Elton Brand? - that we had an early departure. That was several years after Bobby Hurley.

Not that I disgree with you about emotions. I think he mostly keeps them in check. Never saw him get in a fight yet but he has done some sneaky retaliatory stuff that many consider dirty. Checking that stuff would be smart; not sure he has to stay at Duke to do that. Only two clear instances of it, but I think a few more attempts.

The biggest thing it seems to me is that what does he have left to prove ... other than that he can always turn the other cheek? Not sure one more season at Duke will help him show off any more of his game. Certainly not in scoring! Now, if he could do all that and get NDPOY, well, now we're talking. But even then that might be discounted since he's "so short." (ha).

Grayson doesn't get the calls he deserves playing at Duke. The refs in the ACC are going to get him hurt. He needs to leave.

[gurufrisbee]

The issue of how much can he improve by saying is unfortunately never the issue. Okafor, Winslow, and Tyus all obviously had a LOT of room for improvement in their games and they all still left (and the same, if not more so, with Jabari, Hood, and Rivers before them). I think anyone watching Allen knows there is a lot he could improve on. His defense. His deep shooting. His passing. His ball handling. But the NBA draft is about potential, not accomplishment and how developed you are.

I don't think he really ever is a lottery pick. I think no matter what year he goes, he's looking at late first round - which means he also is looking at possibly being second round. As much as we like the think that draft projections might be spot on, there always are guys who drop.

I always root for guys to stay. College basketball is superior to the NBA and getting a world class education paid for while getting coached by the greatest head coach in the history of the sport is an opportunity you should never pass up. Additionally, next season this squad is going to be a title favorite (not just contender). A second national title is an experience and an opportunity that should never be belittled or underscored.

In my mind he's probably 60-40 to leave. But I hope not.

[BandAlum83]

I have to take issue with that either/or thinking. I am sure that someone on the board can elaborate on an alternative scenario.

Let me elaborate, he may or may not use all of his NCAA eligibility.
He may or may not play for Duke for 4 years.

I hope that clears things up for you. :)

[cbarry]

In my mind he's probably 60-40 to leave. But I hope not.

Wow- you're much more optimistic than I! I agree with the majority of the posters here - I think he's gone.. I'd put it at 99.9-0.1 that he's gone. Of course, I'd be majorly surprised (& ecstatic!) if he does decide to stay... But realistically it ain't happening. Like others have said-- GA should do what's best for GA.

[scottdude8]

Wow, glad to see so much discussion in this thread! A lot of great comments, unfortunately a lot of which seem to indicate that Grayson might be better served going pro... which given the way the NBA operates I think I might agree with.

But back to the second reason I started this thread: does anyone have any inside intel about his decision or process? To be honest, I was getting optimistic about Grayson staying because most articles written on this board by those "in the know" seemed to be making the implicit assumption Grayson was coming back (there were many such articles with regards to recruiting, the possible starting lineups and rotations for next season, etc.). Was there something information this journalistic decision, or was I just reading too much into things? It just seemed like a pretty glaring omission to even discuss Grayson going pro in those articles/posts considering BI going pro was almost always immediately mentioned and assumed (yes, I know they are two completely different scenarios, but emphasizing BI going pro but not even mentioning Grayson seemed to be a subtle signal to me).

[obowl1955]

Agree with all three sentences. And while I agree it's shameful how he's been vilified, and that's got to be difficult for him to deal with, there actually is an upside to it. He gets far more media attention than many players who will be drafted ahead of him; he's become a reasonably recognizable name in college basketball. If he were to come back next season, he'd become something of a household name, with his every action making the top of SportsCenter. Most of that would consist of spectacular plays; occasionally it would include a dumb foul or an overreaction to a bad call. OK, fine. But most people would come to "hate" him only in the way "Duke hate" works: we hate you because you are talented, because you work hard, because you have success. That kind of "hate" is easy to reverse.

If Grayson enters the NBA next season, he'll be pretty much like all other NBA players at his level: fairly anonymous, down the bench, working for an opportunity and hoping to get it before his rookie contract expires. If he stays at Duke another year, he'll go in as a celebrity. He'll be one of the few rookies who will have people buying tickets in Sacramento and Memphis to see him. He'll be one of the few to sell jerseys. He'll be invited to the dunk contest. And, here's the $$ part: he'll get plenty of endorsements.

I'd love to see an analysis of whether Grayson would, with the above assumptions, make more money over his career if he goes pro this year vs. next (or the year after). Maybe it's true he'd maximize value by going now. But I don't think that's clearly the case. And if in fact he could maximize his value by waiting, and at the same time be able to enjoy the best years of his life as a student, graduate college, become a celebrity, get his jersey in rafters -- well, seems to me that's a pretty good outcome.

I agree with everything you said here. Christian Laettner will be on a commercial this March because of his Duke career, not his NBA career. Even though everyone predicted Grayson would be the next hated Duke white player, I think Grayson was still shocked at the amount of hate spewed in his direction. Next year he comes back and really embraces the bad guy roll , while building his brand. He will lead us to another national championship ,and we will see him on commercials during March for the next 30 years.

[Saratoga2]

For those thinking Grayson is small for shooting guard, he is probably in the 6' 3 1/2 " range and has an excellent outside shot, is good from the FT line and has a good handle but may not be PG material. He is a tough kid and doesn't seem to tire as much as others on our team. All his current skills can be honed and improved going forward.

By comparison, Steph Curry is 6'3", is an all world shooter with and excellent handle, but he has had years to develop his skills. He of course can play either PG or sG at the pro level.

No doubt some NBA teams have him in mind. He will either be offered late in the first or early 2nd round. It will be a difficult decision for him but he does have the ability to succeed in the NBA.

[jipops]

I've seen this comment quite a bit and I truly don't understand it. Why do people think he couldn't improve his draft stock? How does staying, getting stronger and more skilled hurt his draft position? I recognize the reports of a stronger draft next year but what if he stays 2 more? What if he develops a mid range game, tighter handle, strength, and more winning experience and leadership development under the best coach in the world? Nobody is drafting Hield and valentine 2 yrs ago and now they are lottery picks.

I'm not being critical of the opinion or statement. I'm genuinely confused about someone develops that idea that there is zero way to move up from the very late first round.

I didn't say "zero way" at all. I believe I said "small". Obviously Grayson is going to operate on better info than all of us. But the only way I see his draft stock improving in tougher drafts is developing some point guard skills. And that isn't going to happen with next season's roster.

Sure there is some chance he stays and plausible reasons exist for him coming back. I just think he's gone. It's not as sure of a thing as Jabari bolting after one year. But just seems likely to me.

[westwall]

Sure there is some chance he stays and plausible reasons exist for him coming back. I just think he's gone. It's not as sure of a thing as Jabari bolting after one year. But just seems likely to me.

Although I enjoy the lively discourse usual to this forum I expressed the view very early in this thread to its author that this particular topic already had been the subject of enough entirely uniformed, and frequently banal, speculation in other threads that another such thread would have no useful purpose. Having reviewed the last several pages of this thread, and although I applaud the recent posts by Old Navy, I find no reason to change my earlier viewpoint.

Sorry jipops -- its not you, its just me.

[jipops]

Although I enjoy the lively discourse usual to this forum I expressed the view very early in this thread to its author that this particular topic already had been the subject of enough entirely uniformed, and frequently banal, speculation in other threads that another such thread would have no useful purpose. Having reviewed the last several pages of this thread, and although I applaud the recent posts by Old Navy, I find no reason to change my earlier viewpoint.

Sorry jipops -- its not you, its just me.

The thread title does say "chatter". How much purpose could it possibly have?

[scottdude8]

Although I enjoy the lively discourse usual to this forum I expressed the view very early in this thread to its author that this particular topic already had been the subject of enough entirely uniformed, and frequently banal, speculation in other threads that another such thread would have no useful purpose. Having reviewed the last several pages of this thread, and although I applaud the recent posts by Old Navy, I find no reason to change my earlier viewpoint.

Sorry jipops -- its not you, its just me.

To be fair, when I wrote the thread and in my second post (which is a few back), I emphasized that I created this thread to hopefully clarify the speculation from the facts, considering the different ways Grayson's and Brandon's potential NBA choices have been discussed on this board and in the articles on the site. Unfortunately that seems to have been lost in the chatter. So while I understand you may be against needless speculation, I tried to make it clear that I was asking specific questions, while acknowledging that this may lead to some speculation as well. I hope you'll consider the whole of the post instead of just pouncing on the "speculation" buzzword.

[duke blue brewcrew]

I didn't say "zero way" at all. I believe I said "small". Obviously Grayson is going to operate on better info than all of us. But the only way I see his draft stock improving in tougher drafts is developing some point guard skills. And that isn't going to happen with next season's roster.

I'm not sure I understand your point. What does having two point guards on next year's roster have anything to do with Allen developing a better handle? Grayson developing a better handle has everything to do with him putting in the work in the off season to develop, in team workouts and practices so that he can implement that improvement during next year's season. An improved handle doesn't have to mean he's a PG, it could mean he's less predictable when driving to the hole, and more proficient when leading breaks. A better handle can set up an improved mid-range game as well. All of these things are important to Allen, because he's the type of player who can create his own shot, and in the process create opportunities for others...which is what good players do. Staying 4 years makes a ton of sense for Allen, mostly for reasons already mentioned in this thread and even in this response. Sure, he could go this year. If he does, I'll be cheering for him. I don't see him going next year, mostly due to the depth in that draft class. Also, Allen has dreamed of being a Duke kid his whole life. Climbing up the record books just might mean something to him as well, and souldn't be dismissed.

[BoiseDevil]

The comps have only been made by folks who have no idea what they are talking about or are looking for a lazy comparison.

If I had to compare Allen to anyone, it would be closer to a Dwyane Wade type of player. Not as good, obviously, but that's a better comp for his style of play and physical tools. Or, if one wants a white player (for whatever reason) to to compare with, Bob Sura makes more sense.

But NBA scouts aren't going to be looking at Allen and thinking about JJ Redick. That's what some fans and media members may do, but they are not who will be making draft decisions.

CDu - agree completely

I think there are 2 things Allen can do to impress scouts if he comes back

- improved ball-handling (run offense in backup pt guard role)
- in his primary role as shooting guard - maintain his offensive efficient with fewer opportunities than he has this year

If I'm an NBA GM, I want to know Grayson can be efficient as a 3rd/4th option

My guess - Grayson goes since his draft stock rises as he carries Duke to sweet sixteen before bowing out

[NM Duke Fan]

Grayson plays extremely aggressively in many ways, and sometimes the way he lands makes me cringe. I can relate, that is the way I played both basketball and football. But the human body can only handle that level of intensity for so many years, and then it starts to really slow down for the vast majority of athletes. That being said, the clock is ticking on how many years he has in his prime, and to me his draft stock likely will not go all that much higher. Especially if he has a good tournament. It might be time for him to start earning a paycheck, each year of being able to do so is precious when playing at that pace. I hope he does whatever is best for himself, all things considered ...

[jv001]

I'm not sure I understand your point. What does having two point guards on next year's roster have anything to do with Allen developing a better handle? Grayson developing a better handle has everything to do with him putting in the work in the off season to develop, in team workouts and practices so that he can implement that improvement during next year's season. An improved handle doesn't have to mean he's a PG, it could mean he's less predictable when driving to the hole, and more proficient when leading breaks. A better handle can set up an improved mid-range game as well. All of these things are important to Allen, because he's the type of player who can create his own shot, and in the process create opportunities for others...which is what good players do. Staying 4 years makes a ton of sense for Allen, mostly for reasons already mentioned in this thread and even in this response. Sure, he could go this year. If he does, I'll be cheering for him. I don't see him going next year, mostly due to the depth in that draft class. Also, Allen has dreamed of being a Duke kid his whole life. Climbing up the record books just might mean something to him as well, and souldn't be dismissed.

I'm with you regarding two point guard next season. Thornton is more of a point guard than Jackson from what I've read. Both Thornton and Grayson need improvement in getting others involved in the offense. I realize Grayson leads the team in assists but he can still improve in that area of play. Thornton's on the ball defense is the best on the team and that includes Matt. Especially since his ankle injuries. I do think Grayson will not average over 20 points per game next season because I don't think he will need to. But he can improve in other ways. What ever Grayson decides, I'll be rooting for him. He's a great young man. GoDuke!

[CDu]

With further consideration, I would say that Allen's game is a cross between Wade (not quite as good with the ball and not quite as explosive but a better shooter) and Ben Gordon (bigger and a better finisher at the rim).

I don't know if he will go. I hope (selfishly) he stays, but I won't be at all surprised if he goes.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

Who gets drafted earlier ... Grayson or Sulaimon?

[CDu]

Who gets drafted earlier ... Grayson or Sulaimon?

Depends on whether Allen enters this year or not.;)

If Allen does enter, he would get drafted first. There is no guarantee Sulaimon even gets drafted.

[SupaDave]

With further consideration, I would say that Allen's game is a cross between Wade (not quite as good with the ball and not quite as explosive but a better shooter) and Ben Gordon (bigger and a better finisher at the rim).

I don't know if he will go. I hope (selfishly) he stays, but I won't be at all surprised if he goes.

Ben Gordon. There's a name I haven't heard in a while. Indeed I can see that with the driving to the lane.

[gurufrisbee]

Who gets drafted earlier ... Grayson or Sulaimon?

Grayson, but Sulaimon is a superior defender already and easily a team could project him as having more upside, especially in terms of ball handling and passing (which neither does well enough yet). And the reality that Sulaimon would absolutely not get drafted in the first round and that it's reasonable to believe he could be picked ahead of Allen (though unlikey) is exactly why Allen should not be sure he wants to go. There is a very real chance he's not first round and if you aren't guaranteed to be first round it is a flat out terrible decision to leave early.

[juise]

Who gets drafted earlier ... Grayson or Sulaimon?

I have seen 4 Marylamd players on draft boards. Rasheed was not one of those 4. Generally it seems to be Stone, Trimble, then Carter/Leyman.

[NSDukeFan]

With further consideration, I would say that Allen's game is a cross between Wade (not quite as good with the ball and not quite as explosive but a better shooter) and Ben Gordon (bigger and a better finisher at the rim).

I don't know if he will go. I hope (selfishly) he stays, but I won't be at all surprised if he goes.

I remember Gordon as a very good college scorer who was good enough to also score in the pros, but don't remember him as a terrific 3-point shooter or great driver. I believe he was a fantastic mid-range scorer but don't remember his game that well.

[CDu]

I remember Gordon as a very good college scorer who was good enough to also score in the pros, but don't remember him as a terrific 3-point shooter or great driver. I believe he was a fantastic mid-range scorer but don't remember his game that well.

Gordon was a terrific 3pt shooter. He shot over 40% from 3 every year in college, and it is actually what he is best known for in the NBA. He was also extremely athletic and strong and explosive off the dribble.

His issue was no defense and that he was a 6'2" SG.

[dukelion]

Grayson definitely has areas he can improve on if he comes back, notably his handle, ability to go left, mid-range game and distribution.

Yes next year's draft is considered superior to this year but that has a lot to do with the elite talent at the top. Grayson would still fall in the late first round projection except if he left this year he would have a better chance of moving up into the teens much like Tyus did last year.

[juise]

I remember Gordon as a very good college scorer who was good enough to also score in the pros, but don't remember him as a terrific 3-point shooter or great driver. I believe he was a fantastic mid-range scorer but don't remember his game that well.

Having attended the 2004 Final Four my senior year, I have no desire to remember Ben Gordon's college career.

[SoCalDukeFan]

that the negativity toward Grayson by people who know nothing is not a factor in his decision.

SoCal

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

that the negativity toward Grayson by people who know nothing is not a factor in his decision.

SoCal

I guarantee you it does not

[subzero02]

I think Grayson's regional play could have a pretty big impact on his final decision. He could play himself into a top 15 slot just outside the lottery.

[Saratoga2]

Grayson, but Sulaimon is a superior defender already and easily a team could project him as having more upside, especially in terms of ball handling and passing (which neither does well enough yet). And the reality that Sulaimon would absolutely not get drafted in the first round and that it's reasonable to believe he could be picked ahead of Allen (though unlikey) is exactly why Allen should not be sure he wants to go. There is a very real chance he's not first round and if you aren't guaranteed to be first round it is a flat out terrible decision to leave early.

In the games that I watched, Sulaimon made a lot of careless mistakes and reminded me of his play for Duke which had good elements but also left him out of the starting lineup at times. I prefer Grayson's play and think the NBA will as well.

[dukelifer]

In the games that I watched, Sulaimon made a lot of careless mistakes and reminded me of his play for Duke which had good elements but also left him out of the starting lineup at times. I prefer Grayson's play and think the NBA will as well.

I am not sold on Rasheed as an NBA player. He is going to be a second round pick at best and he has not shown a willingness to work hard on his game. He will spend some time in the D league and see if he can get a shot. His shooting will need to improve. Grayson is a better finisher and shooter at this point.

[dyedwab]

No doubt some NBA teams have him in mind. He will either be offered late in the first or early 2nd round. It will be a difficult decision for him but he does have the ability to succeed in the NBA.

For those thinking of early entry, the bolded statement above is the biggest gamble. It's the difference between a guaranteed contract and non guaranteed one.

I think this thread has been useful in identifying the issues that are involved in Grayson's decision that don't involve the "I just want to return to Duke" issues.


1.Whether he is a 1st or a 2nd rounder

2. Whether he should leave now in what is considered weak draft year or wait till next year and, through no fault of his own, drop because of a stronger draft class

3. Whether Grayson's "upside" is high enough that returning for a year will help him, or is he a "What you see is what you get" guy whose unquestionable improvement over the years will materially effect his draft status

More than any other potential early-entry player for Duke I can remember I can make a strong case either way on the merits of entering the draft based on above criteria.

Interesting conversation.

[lotusland]

Here's someone guessing Ingram goes first and Grayson goes 20th at this point which, of course, means nothing.

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2016/3/11/11184456/nba-mock-draft-brandon-ingram-over-ben-simmons

[Saratoga2]

For those thinking of early entry, the bolded statement above is the biggest gamble. It's the difference between a guaranteed contract and non guaranteed one.

I think this thread has been useful in identifying the issues that are involved in Grayson's decision that don't involve the "I just want to return to Duke" issues.


1.Whether he is a 1st or a 2nd rounder

2. Whether he should leave now in what is considered weak draft year or wait till next year and, through no fault of his own, drop because of a stronger draft class

3. Whether Grayson's "upside" is high enough that returning for a year will help him, or is he a "What you see is what you get" guy whose unquestionable improvement over the years will materially effect his draft status

More than any other potential early-entry player for Duke I can remember I can make a strong case either way on the merits of entering the draft based on above criteria.

Interesting conversation.

Good summary

[wavedukefan70s]

I wonder if all the vocal abuse at games. As well as the bad press will be a factor in his decision.
I wish people would think about how they were at twenty years old.everyone makes mistakes.i hope he can mentally deal with it and not let it become a major factor in his decision process.

[BandAlum83]

I am not sold on Rasheed as an NBA player. He is going to be a second round pick at best and he has not shown a willingness to work hard on his game. He will spend some time in the D league and see if he can get a shot. His shooting will need to improve. Grayson is a better finisher and shooter at this point.

Quick Google search got me this:

Did U Know?

A D-League season comprises of 40 games.
An NBA Development League roster comprises of 12 players. Two of those roster positions are reserved for NBA players that teams send down to temporarily development their games.
D-League players are paid between $20,000-$25,000 per season and their housing is also paid for.

Given that, it's easily understandable that an undrafted free agent would be much more likely to play in Europe.

[SupaDave]

Quick Google search got me this:

Did U Know?

A D-League season comprises of 40 games.
An NBA Development League roster comprises of 12 players. Two of those roster positions are reserved for NBA players that teams send down to temporarily development their games.
D-League players are paid between $20,000-$25,000 per season and their housing is also paid for.

Given that, it's easily understandable that an undrafted free agent would be much more likely to play in Europe.

Understandable - yes, but certainly not until you've exhausted all of your NBA options. That is a fact. Nothing like NBA scouts being able to watch you play and already being on the NBA payroll while getting to work out in NBA facilities for free with access to NBA doctors and trainers (ramble rant - sorry).

[dukelifer]

Understandable - yes, but certainly not until you've exhausted all of your NBA options. That is a fact. Nothing like NBA scouts being able to watch you play and already being on the NBA payroll while getting to work out in NBA facilities for free with access to NBA doctors and trainers (ramble rant - sorry).

Yes. The D league is where you go before the NBA- Europe is where you go after the NBA effectively says no. Rasheed will make his case but I don't think he is long enough and a good enough shooter to be an NBA 2 and so he may realize that quickly and take his talents overseas.

[CDu]

Quick Google search got me this:

Did U Know?

A D-League season comprises of 40 games.
An NBA Development League roster comprises of 12 players. Two of those roster positions are reserved for NBA players that teams send down to temporarily development their games.
D-League players are paid between $20,000-$25,000 per season and their housing is also paid for.

Given that, it's easily understandable that an undrafted free agent would be much more likely to play in Europe.

Except that there are limits on how many Americans can play on a team in Europe (like 2 or 3 per team). So while the money may be better, the opportunities are more scarce.

[SCMatt33]

The other issue with Europe that I haven't seen mentioned yet is the timing. You have to shut the door on the NBA very early to sign in Europe. You can generally play in the summer league and still go, but you can't accept a training camp invite in the NBA and then go to Europe as their season has already started. It's also difficult to play n Europe and then try to sneak into the NBA late as there's not much time in the NBA season for you to make a good impression in the d league and get a 10 day contract that late.

[Fish80]

I love Grayson's game. He's a warrior and leaves it all on the court. If you have any doubts about his game, re-read Coach K's comments after the loss to NDame.

Grayson has a boatload of fans. My waiter at Buffalo Wild Wings, unsolicited, was singing his praises. People recognize and appreciate heart, effort, and talent.

One word to describe Grayson? Gladiator.