Grayson's Chances for First-Team All-American

[slower]

He's obviously a lock for First-Team All-ACC (Allen, Barber, Brogdon and Johnson are locks, right?), with a shot at Player of The Year.

Nationally, Simmons and Hield are First-Team locks, aren't they? Grayson will be Second-Team at worst, but I'm hoping the negative press doesn't knock him off First Team.

Thoughts?

[Henderson]

Zero chance.

[FerryFor50]

Zero chance.

Um, why?

Who would you put on the first team?

Zero chance means he'd get no votes. That seems unlikely.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

He's gotta be in the running, a lot will depend on the next two weeks I would imagine. Impress vs Carolina and do work in the ACC Tourney and it will be hard to keep him off. Falter or under preform and guarantee the negative press will keep him off.

[gurufrisbee]

Valentine and Hield seem like the locks. Simmons is probably pretty close. Dunn is probably pretty close, too. The fifth spot feels like a good race between Barber, Brogdon, Uthoff, Wiltjer, Niang, and more - including Allen.

[Henderson]

Um, why?

Who would you put on the first team?

Zero chance means he'd get no votes. That seems unlikely.

John Anderson got lots of votes and had no chance of winning the presidency.

I love Grayson and what he brings. I'd rather he push the envelope than hold back. If that means a broken envelope, so be it. This year more than most, we need the intensity, come what may.

But the press surrounding the FSU game means he has no chance of being #1. He'll get votes. But he has no chance of winning POY. That's not my vote; that's a prediction of others' votes. Fair or not, he's out of the running. Because it's an election, not an objective weighing of playing merit.

[BobBender]

Valentine and Hield seem like the locks. Simmons is probably pretty close. Dunn is probably pretty close, too. The fifth spot feels like a good race between Barber, Brogdon, Uthoff, Wiltjer, Niang, and more - including Allen.

If Simmons is 1st team, that would cheapen the honor. He is a media ( mostly ESPN) creation. Yeah, so he's got talent. His team stinks and he can't shoot from beyond 12 feet.
As for Dunn, even more talent, but Providence has crapped the bed this month. That usually counts for something. And Barber? You must live in the Triangle to think he's 1st team AA

[CDu]

Guys who are all but guaranteed to make 1st Team include:
Buddy Hield
Denzel Valentine

Other potential candidates:
Malcolm Brogdon
Ben Simmons
Grayson Allen
Tyler Ulis
Georges Niang

My guess is that Brogdon, Simmons, and Ulis join Hield and Valentine. I think Niang and Allen make the 2nd team.

[slower]

John Anderson got lots of votes and had no chance of winning the presidency.

I love Grayson and what he brings. I'd rather he push the envelope than hold back. If that means a broken envelope, so be it. This year more than most, we need the intensity, come what may.

But the press surrounding the FSU game means he has no chance of being #1. He'll get votes. But he has no chance of winning POY. That's not my vote; that's a prediction of others' votes. Fair or not, he's out of the running. Because it's an election, not an objective weighing of playing merit.

I agree that he probably won't win ACC POY. But I was more interested in his chances for 1st-Team All-American. I agree that he has no shot to be National POY.

[CDu]

John Anderson got lots of votes and had no chance of winning the presidency.

I love Grayson and what he brings. I'd rather he push the envelope than hold back. If that means a broken envelope, so be it. This year more than most, we need the intensity, come what may.

But the press surrounding the FSU game means he has no chance of being #1. He'll get votes. But he has no chance of winning POY. That's not my vote; that's a prediction of others' votes. Fair or not, he's out of the running. Because it's an election, not an objective weighing of playing merit.

That isn't the question. The question was whether he'd make First Team All-American, not PoY. I don't think he'll make 1st Team All-American, either, but I definitely wouldn't say zero chance.

[Wander]

He has a small chance, but I think 2nd team is more likely. The two absolute locks are Hield and Valentine. I don't think Ben Simmons is a lock anymore due to how horrible LSU is, though I imagine he'll likely get it. My prediction would be:

Buddy Hield
Denzel Valentine
Kris Dunn
Ben Simmons
Jakob Poeltl

However, the last three guys are not locks. I think you could make an argument for any of these guys over them: Brice Johnson, Tyler Ulis, Grayson Allen, Malcolm Brogdon, Perry Ellis. I guess you could call that my prediction for the 2nd team then. 3rd team would include Georges Niang and Josh Hart, not sure about the last three guys.

[Henderson]

That isn't the question. The question was whether he'd make First Team All-American, not PoY. I don't think he'll make 1st Team All-American, either, but I definitely wouldn't say zero chance.

I'd say zero chance of first team all-american. The votes might have been close two weeks ago, but not any more.

I'm not saying he's undeserving (he is in my view), but people vote. And they won't vote him onto the first team.

No chance.

[CDu]

I'd say zero chance of first team all-american. The votes might have been close two weeks ago, but not any more.

I'm not saying he's undeserving (he is in my view), but people vote. And they won't vote him onto the first team.

No chance.

I think he will still get some 1st Team votes, and thus his chance is not zero. But I definitely think his chances are very slim. I would put heavy odds on him NOT getting 1st Team. I think it as certainly fair to say he is very very likely not to be selected 1st team, but I'd not say zero chance.

[Henderson]

I think he will still get some 1st Team votes, and thus his chance is not zero. But I definitely think his chances are very slim. I would put heavy odds on him NOT getting 1st Team. I think it as certainly fair to say he is very very likely not to be selected 1st team, but I'd not say zero chance.

OK, not zero. Because there's a chance that Penelope Cruz will invite me to have a dinner with her tonight.

[Jeffrey]

OK, not zero. Because there's a chance that Penelope Cruz will invite me to have a dinner with her tonight.

If that's comparable, then my money is on Grayson.

[oldnavy]

OK, not zero. Because there's a chance that Penelope Cruz will invite me to have a dinner with her tonight.

Nope, she has already invited me! :eek:

[JNort]

I think he will still get some 1st Team votes, and thus his chance is not zero. But I definitely think his chances are very slim. I would put heavy odds on him NOT getting 1st Team. I think it as certainly fair to say he is very very likely not to be selected 1st team, but I'd not say zero chance.

Just because you get some votes doesn't mean you have a chance.

[CDu]

Just because you get some votes doesn't mean you have a chance.

Actually, it quite literally does mean that.

[Henderson]

Actually, it quite literally does mean that.

Sweet. Because I voted for my brother-in-law in the recent Nevada caucus. He'll be glad to know he has a chance at the nomination.

[dpslaw]

Sweet. Because I voted for my brother-in-law in the recent Nevada caucus. He'll be glad to know he has a chance at the nomination.

Well, if Donald Trump is your brother-in-law, I think he's got a chance!

[Kfanarmy]

OK, not zero. Because there's a chance that Penelope Cruz will invite me to have a dinner with her tonight.

Just in case...I hope the two of you have a wonderful time!

[flyingdutchdevil]

Just in case...I hope the two of you have a wonderful time!

I hope so too. Or else Javier Bardem will come after you with a cattle gun.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

Well after yesterdays 30 point game, I would imagine he is right back in the thick of it for 1st team All America. You have to at least put him in the conversation, and if keeps that up on Saturday which will be the most watched game of the year then I'd say he has a really good chance.

[Henderson]

Well after yesterdays 30 point game, I would imagine he is right back in the thick of it for 1st team All America. You have to at least put him in the conversation, and if keeps that up on Saturday which will be the most watched game of the year then I'd say he has a really good chance.

He deserves it, no question.

[COYS]

He deserves it, no question.

No doubt. He has been utterly spectacular. And his production hasn't dipped even after we lost our third best offensive option in Amile and defenses began keying in on him. And he does it with absurd efficiency. He shoots over 64% on shots at the rim . . . as a guard. And he earns a trip to the free throw line on 50% of his shot attempts where he shoots better than 80% (he was closer to 90% before last night). And he shoots threes with accuracy. And he has solid assist numbers. He is having one of the best offensive seasons for a guard in Duke history. When you take into account efficiency (Grayson has a low turnover rate and excellent shooting numbers from all over the floor in addition to his high free throw rate), his season compares favorably to Jason Williams in 2001 and JJ during his junior season. One could make an argument that only JJ's senior season stands apart. And while Grayson is a long way off from AVERAGING almost 27 per game as JJ did (that still blows my mind!), Grayson is also lucky enough to be surrounded by a lot more offensive talent than the 2006 team. While no individual is quite as good as Shelden, the combination of Brandon, Luke, Matt, Marshall and Derryck clearly beats Shelden plus freshman Josh, hobbled DeMarcus, freshman Greg (who wasn't nearly as good from three as he later became), and Lee Melchioni. I don't know if Grayson would score more if we had less talent this year or if defenses would be able to zero in on him even more than they already do, but it is certainly possible that Grayson would put up numbers just as eye-popping as senior year JJ.

It's impossible to know whether or not he stays or goes, but if he were to stay all four years and is healthy, there is no doubt he goes down in history as one of the best ever to put on a Duke uniform. We are incredibly spoiled as Duke fans to have players come through our program year after year who measure up to our legends of the past. Many programs would be happy remembering the good old days with Laettner, Hurley, and Hill and Williams, Dunleavy, Battier, and Boozer. Instead, we got to see JJ and Shelden enroll the year after our early 2000's stars left. Then we got Jon. Then we got Kyle and Nolan. Then we got Kyrie. Then we got Austin. Then we got to watch Jabari and Rodney. And then Tyus, Jah, and Justise. They leave and immediately we're treated to Grayson. And this doesn't even count guys like Quinn, Mason, DeMarcus, Seth, Ryan, Dahntay, Gerald . . . etc. who were all ridiculously good, too. So many of these guys have ended up in the record books somewhere. It's just an incredible list of talent and we are so lucky to get to watch these guys night in and night out.

[Wahoo2000]

Just some extra info for you guys - below is the KenPom top 10 PoY rankings. I know the voters don't/won't factor this in all that much, but it's a good reference point to see who's actually playing the best all around basketball from November to March:

1 Buddy Hield, Oklahoma
2 Denzel Valentine, Michigan St.
3 Malcolm Brogdon, Virginia
4 Brice Johnson, North Carolina
5 Perry Ellis, Kansas
6 Grayson Allen, Duke
7 Jakob Poeltl, Utah
8 Jarrod Uthoff, Iowa
9 Josh Hart, Villanova
10 Georges Niang, Iowa St.

Only thing of note to me is that Simmons is nowhere on the list. I have to think that if LSU misses the tournament, he'll likely miss out on 1st team, as popularity can only carry you so far when you can't get a team to the tournament in a down SEC.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

Just some extra info for you guys - below is the KenPom top 10 PoY rankings. I know the voters don't/won't factor this in all that much, but it's a good reference point to see who's actually playing the best all around basketball from November to March:

1 Buddy Hield, Oklahoma
2 Denzel Valentine, Michigan St.
3 Malcolm Brogdon, Virginia
4 Brice Johnson, North Carolina
5 Perry Ellis, Kansas
6 Grayson Allen, Duke
7 Jakob Poeltl, Utah
8 Jarrod Uthoff, Iowa
9 Josh Hart, Villanova
10 Georges Niang, Iowa St.

Only thing of note to me is that Simmons is nowhere on the list. I have to think that if LSU misses the tournament, he'll likely miss out on 1st team, as popularity can only carry you so far when you can't get a team to the tournament in a down SEC.

Interesting list, I don't think there is any way that we see 3 ACC players on the First team though so one or two will be out of the equation. Like I have been saying, the ACC tournament could weigh heavily on the voters minds.

[pfrduke]

Just some extra info for you guys - below is the KenPom top 10 PoY rankings. I know the voters don't/won't factor this in all that much, but it's a good reference point to see who's actually playing the best all around basketball from November to March:

1 Buddy Hield, Oklahoma
2 Denzel Valentine, Michigan St.
3 Malcolm Brogdon, Virginia
4 Brice Johnson, North Carolina
5 Perry Ellis, Kansas
6 Grayson Allen, Duke
7 Jakob Poeltl, Utah
8 Jarrod Uthoff, Iowa
9 Josh Hart, Villanova
10 Georges Niang, Iowa St.

Only thing of note to me is that Simmons is nowhere on the list. I have to think that if LSU misses the tournament, he'll likely miss out on 1st team, as popularity can only carry you so far when you can't get a team to the tournament in a down SEC.

If I recall correctly he weights team success pretty heavily, precisely to prevent stat monsters on poorer teams from ending up in the conversation.

[HK Dukie]

Grayson is also lucky enough to be surrounded by a lot more offensive talent than the 2006 team. While no individual is quite as good as Shelden, the combination of Brandon, Luke, Matt, Marshall and Derryck clearly beats Shelden plus freshman Josh, hobbled DeMarcus, freshman Greg (who wasn't nearly as good from three as he later became), and Lee Melchioni. I don't know if Grayson would score more if we had less talent this year or if defenses would be able to zero in on him even more than they already do, but it is certainly possible that Grayson would put up numbers just as eye-popping as senior year JJ.


KenPom does not support your case. As of today, Duke this season is ranked 4th nationally in adjusted offense. In 2006, Duke was also ranked 4th nationally in adjusted offense. Grayson is having a terrific season. He is far ahead of JJ as a soph, but JJ's senior year was off the charts and he almost won NPOY (and IMHO should have). There has been a lot of talk about Grayson being mugged this season when he drives. Look at JJ in that LSU game (if I recall correctly 3-18) and he was getting held every play too. You just have to handle it and be strong with the ball, which Grayson is. What he is doing is truly remarkable. If he had played better against Kentucky and Duke was in the top 5-10 he could very well be in NPOY contention too. I don't recall Duke in the K era ever having a guard that was as good driving and shooting (as a combo) as Allen. Fun to watch!

[luburch]

KenPom does not support your case. As of today, Duke this season is ranked 4th nationally in adjusted offense. In 2006, Duke was also ranked 4th nationally in adjusted offense. Grayson is having a terrific season. He is far ahead of JJ as a soph, but JJ's senior year was off the charts and he almost won NPOY (and IMHO should have). There has been a lot of talk about Grayson being mugged this season when he drives. Look at JJ in that LSU game (if I recall correctly 3-18) and he was getting held every play too. You just have to handle it and be strong with the ball, which Grayson is. What he is doing is truly remarkable. If he had played better against Kentucky and Duke was in the top 5-10 he could very well be in NPOY contention too. I don't recall Duke in the K era ever having a guard that was as good driving and shooting (as a combo) as Allen. Fun to watch!

He did win NPOY his senior year.

[Dukehky]

He did win NPOY his senior year.

Literally almost every single one. Gonzaga's schedule was a joke and people figured out Adam Morrison's schtick.

[Olympic Fan]

He did win NPOY his senior year.

Indeed, Jason won every major NPOY in 2006 -- AP, USBWA, NABC, The Sporting News, the Naismith, Rupp and Wooden

Redick also won the 2005 Rupp Award as the NPOY, but he was not close to the consensus NPOY that season

[COYS]

KenPom does not support your case. As of today, Duke this season is ranked 4th nationally in adjusted offense. In 2006, Duke was also ranked 4th nationally in adjusted offense. Grayson is having a terrific season. He is far ahead of JJ as a soph, but JJ's senior year was off the charts and he almost won NPOY (and IMHO should have). There has been a lot of talk about Grayson being mugged this season when he drives. Look at JJ in that LSU game (if I recall correctly 3-18) and he was getting held every play too. You just have to handle it and be strong with the ball, which Grayson is. What he is doing is truly remarkable. If he had played better against Kentucky and Duke was in the top 5-10 he could very well be in NPOY contention too. I don't recall Duke in the K era ever having a guard that was as good driving and shooting (as a combo) as Allen. Fun to watch!

I'm not sure what you're saying, here. I argued that Grayson has had one of the best seasons for a Duke guard since 2000, surpassed only by JJ's senior year. And then I argued that part of the reason why JJ put up the numbers he did is because he HAD to. He was surrounded by fewer scoring options. Then I wondered if Grayson would have been able to equal JJ's numbers if he were one of only two real options on offense, as JJ was. I never claimed that Grayson's season was definitively better than JJ's. Nor did I argue that our offense this year is better than 2006, although one could make a reasonable argument that it is (which brings up an interesting KenPom discussion because in general, offensive numbers were down in 2006 relative to now. Duke's current adjOeff rating of 120.0 would have easily been number 1 relative to the competition in 2006 and blows away the 2006 team's rating of 116.6. I know KenPom adjusts his ratings relative to the performance of teams from each season so you can't directly compare numbers across seasons, but it IS interesting that offenses are generally scoring more relative to each other in recent seasons than back in 2006). Anyway, I don't think there's much doubt that Duke has more scoring options this year than in 2006. After JJ and Shelden, there was a major drop off in scoring, especially with DeMarcus hobbled for much of the season. Matt and Luke are more prolific third and fourth options than anything JJ had in 2006. And even our fifth and six options in Derryck and Marshall are able to contribute.

[HK Dukie]

Nor did I argue that our offense this year is better than 2006, although one could make a reasonable argument that it is

Really? Then why did you say this...


Grayson is also lucky enough to be surrounded by a lot more offensive talent than the 2006 team. While no individual is quite as good as Shelden, the combination of Brandon, Luke, Matt, Marshall and Derryck clearly beats Shelden plus freshman Josh, hobbled DeMarcus, freshman Greg (who wasn't nearly as good from three as he later became), and Lee Melchioni.

I took exception to the "clearly beating" line and demonstrated that KenPom says both teams are/were ranked #4 nationally. Neither is clearly better than the other and you do have to look at their stats relative to their peers in their era. Obviously 2006 was a much better defensive team as can be seen in those same KenPom numbers (and the Landlord's city full of blocks). As for Grayson's season, we are in complete agreement that it is being underestimated by the media/fans. It is truly remarkable. Where I may be a little different here, and we can certainly disagree about this opinion, is that JJ would have scored 27ppg on this team too (without Grayson). Maybe more. While we talked about the KenPom numbers showing 2006 being on par with 2016, the 2006 team aside from JJ wasn't as good from deep as 2016. Put JJ on a team where the defense is spread and can't double team you as much or cheat to your side and I think he gets at least as many points. Again, this is speculation, so no need to agree. And again, we also agree that Grayson is ahead of JJ's soph level. Truly remarkable.

As for the others...


He did win NPOY his senior year.

Literally almost every single one. Gonzaga's schedule was a joke and people figured out Adam Morrison's schtick.

Indeed, Jason won every major NPOY in 2006 -- AP, USBWA, NABC, The Sporting News, the Naismith, Rupp and Wooden

You are all correct. Although I'm not sure who Jason is :) Seems we older fans confuse some of the details from time to time. I think I superimposed Nolan not getting all the NPOY awards (only around 2 I believe) onto JJ in his battle with the floppy hair. So thanks for reminding me, put a smile on my face.

[Channing]

I don't recall Duke in the K era ever having a guard that was as good driving and shooting (as a combo) as Allen. Fun to watch!

The only one I can think of is Sophomore Jason Williams. Not bad company to keep...

[Dukehky]

Really? Then why did you say this...



I took exception to the "clearly beating" line and demonstrated that KenPom says both teams are/were ranked #4 nationally. Neither is clearly better than the other and you do have to look at their stats relative to their peers in their era. Obviously 2006 was a much better defensive team as can be seen in those same KenPom numbers (and the Landlord's city full of blocks). As for Grayson's season, we are in complete agreement that it is being underestimated by the media/fans. It is truly remarkable. Where I may be a little different here, and we can certainly disagree about this opinion, is that JJ would have scored 27ppg on this team too (without Grayson). Maybe more. While we talked about the KenPom numbers showing 2006 being on par with 2016, the 2006 team aside from JJ wasn't as good from deep as 2016. Put JJ on a team where the defense is spread and can't double team you as much or cheat to your side and I think he gets at least as many points. Again, this is speculation, so no need to agree. And again, we also agree that Grayson is ahead of JJ's soph level. Truly remarkable.

As for the others...





You are all correct. Although I'm not sure who Jason is :) Seems we older fans confuse some of the details from time to time. I think I superimposed Nolan not getting all the NPOY awards (only around 2 I believe) onto JJ in his battle with the floppy hair. So thanks for reminding me, put a smile on my face.

Nolan Smith did not win a single NPOY, otherwise, his jersey would be in the rafters.

[wk2109]

Nolan Smith did not win a single NPOY, otherwise, his jersey would be in the rafters.

He didn't win any of the major NPOY awards, but he was named foxsports.com and yahoo.com NPOY.

http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?ATCLID=205111371

[Jeffrey]

Gonzaga's schedule was a joke and people figured out Adam Morrison's schtick.

Is this true? IIRC, Jordan wasted the third overall draft pick on him. Where was J.J. picked in the draft?

[hsheffield]

11th by the Orlando Magic

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Nolan Smith did not win a single NPOY, otherwise, his jersey would be in the rafters.

Ah, the rafters. Can you please recite the rafters qualifications for the rest of us? I had forgotten how much weight Coach K puts on sports writers' NPOY opinions.