This Week in the ACC: 2/29-3/6

[pfrduke]

We've hit the last week of the season and there are still 6 teams with a shot at the regular season title. A single win by UNC or Miami will knock two teams out (Duke, Notre Dame), but it's likely that the battle among the other four will come down to the last day of the season. I'm reminded at least somewhat of the 1994-95 season when four teams tied at 12-4 (although this season lacks the satisfaction of the double round robin as a sorting factor). In the meantime, there's also a chance that a team could finish 12-6 and not even get a double bye in the conference tournament, which has not previously happened in the albeit brief history of the super-expanded conference.

Further down in the conference standings, we still have 10 teams at .500 or better (9 of which are guaranteed to finish there) and an 11th (Georgia Tech) that has to believe that a .500 conference season will put it right in the mix for a tournament bid (particularly given the games they'll have to win to get to .500). Of those teams, only Virginia Tech, I think, is clearly out of the tournament picture (and if they sweep Pitt and Miami this week, who's to say they're actually out). So there will be plenty of bubble battles for teams looking to solidify their chances at meaningful post-season play.

And, of course, there's Boston College's pursuit of an 0-18 season, which has never happened before in the ACC and would be the first winless season in conference play since Maryland went 0-14 in the 1986-87 season.

All in all, it makes for lots of exciting games to sort things out over the final week, capped by an excellent double-header in prime time to end the season.

Monday
[5]North Carolina hosts [42]Syracuse (7:00, ESPN) - the notion of a 6-team race for the title could end two hours into the week

Tuesday
[49]Clemson hosts [3]Virginia (7:00, ESPNU)
[13]Duke hosts [135]Wake Forest (8:00, ESPN3)
[7]Louisville hosts [63]Georgia Tech (8:00, ESPN3)

Wednesday
[89]Virginia Tech hosts [40]Pittsburgh (7:00, ESPN3)
[34]Notre Dame hosts [11]Miami (7:00, ESPN2)
[67]NC State hosts [260]Boston College (9:00, ESPN3)

Thursday and Friday are dark

Saturday
[34]Notre Dame hosts [67]NC State (12:00, CBS)
[260]Boston College hosts [49]Clemson (12:00, ESPN3)
[45]Florida State hosts [42]Syracuse (2:00, ESPN2)
[63]Georgia Tech hosts [40]Pittsburgh (2:00, ACCN)
[89]Virginia Tech hosts [11]Miami (4:00, ACCN)
[13]Duke hosts [5]North Carolina (6:30, ESPN)
[3]Virginia hosts [7]Louisville (8:30, ESPN)

Sunday is dark

[Olympic Fan]

If we win out, we could finish anywhere from first (very unlikely - would require both Miami and UNC-CH to lose out AND UVa to win out AND Notre Dame to lose to NC State) .

I imagine you're talking seeding ... to finish first place (i.e. to win a share of the regulars season title), it doesn't matter what Notre Dame does if we win out (we'd be 12-6 and that's the best Notre Dame can finish). But, I agree, it's far fetched, because it would require UNC to lose tonight to Syracuse ... maybe it could happen in the Dome, but it ain't happening in the Smith Center.

If by some miracle it does happen, THEN I get optimistic because I don't think it's farfetched that Miami loses twice on the road this week -- they have not been very good away from home.

We would also need the winner of Saturday's Virginia-Louisville game to lose its other game this week. I actually think it's possible that Clemson upsets Virginia at home ... not much hope that Georgia Tech beats Louisville at the Rum Center.

As I said, very farfetched and as of now, I'm focused on outcomes that help Duke for the double-bye ... which means I pull against Notre Dame, Syracuse, Virginia, Clemson and Pitt.

But not that it matters in the grand scheme of things, but if Syracuse DOES win tonight, I'm going to resume dreaming of an ACC regular season title (at least a six-way share of it).

BTW: The ACC is on pace to realistically get seven NCAA teams ... but it's also possible that the league puts four more teams in the NIT -- FSU, Georgia Tech, Clemson and Virginia Tech. That would be 11 postseason teams ... to me, that's impressive.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Tuned into holes game in time to see Roy doing the power dump squat just now. Cracks (hehe) me up every time.

[FerryFor50]

Gbinijie just gave Theo Pinson pink eye:


https://vine.co/v/igehKQYzVJ5

[CDu]

If tonight's result holds, the best we can hope for is the 3 seed in the ACCs. The only solace would be that we won't realistically have a chance at 8th.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Silent G blew it.

[Furniture]

Silent G blew it.

He had a brilliant game. I really wish we still had him.

[CDu]

Go Canes! Go Cards! Help us please!

[FerryFor50]

He had a brilliant game. I really wish we still had him.

He'd have graduated last year, so we wouldn't have him this year.

Also, 7 turnovers? Ew.

As for his final shot, he should have pulled up from 3.

[pfrduke]

And now it's down to 4 teams with a shot at the title. Syracuse gave it a good fight but just couldn't weather a bad 4-5 minutes stretch in the middle of the second half.

[CDu]

And now it's down to 4 teams with a shot at the title. Syracuse gave it a good fight but just couldn't weather a bad 4-5 minutes stretch in the middle of the second half.

And at most a 3-way tie possible, as UVa finishes the year hosting Louisville.

[Olympic Fan]

We ought to switch the ACC seeding discussion to this week's thread.

UNC just eliminated Duke (and Notre Dame) from a shot at the ACC regular season title with their narrow win over Syracuse.

Now the focus is 100 percent on earning a double bye -- I don't care if it's 2-3-or-4.

Take it one night at a time:

Tuesday night, the big one is Duke needs to beat Wake. Lose that and it pretty much guarantees that Duke is playing Wednesday in Washington.

Whichever team wins the Clemson-Virginia game helps us. I guess it helps us most if Clemson upsets Virginia (since we're one-game ahead of Clemson at the moment)

Louisville-Georgia Tech doesn't have much impact, since Louisville's seed doesn't matter and Georgia Tech can't catch us.

So the only must-win Tuesday night is Duke-Wake. I'd rather see Clemson beat Virginia, but even if Virginia win, it takes Clemson off our back.

PS Absolutely stunning how bad a shooter that Marcus Paige has become ... one UNC fan suggested that the aliens from Space Jam have stolen his talent. It's as good an explanation as anything else I've heard. Just hope Newman and Bill Murray don't help him get his mojo back before Saturday

[CDu]

Clemson beating UVa only helps if we win out. Meanwhile, UVa has a losable game at home against Louisville. So I am cheering for UVa tomorrow. I don't want to risk dropping to the 7th seed with a loss to UNC-CH.

We are now shooting for the 3rd or 4th seed. There is no tiebreaker left that gets us past Miami for the 2 seed. Winning out and a Notre Dame loss gets us the 4 seed at least. Winning out and losses by ND and UVa gets us the 3 seed.

If we lose a game, we have to hope ND loses twice AND both Pitt and Clemson lose in order to get the 4 seed. Not impossible, but not at all likely.

[dukelifer]

He had a brilliant game. I really wish we still had him.

Wouldn't he have graduated a year ago had he stayed?

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

We ought to switch the ACC seeding discussion to this week's thread.

UNC just eliminated Duke (and Notre Dame) from a shot at the ACC regular season title with their narrow win over Syracuse.

Now the focus is 100 percent on earning a double bye -- I don't care if it's 2-3-or-4.

Take it one night at a time:

Tuesday night, the big one is Duke needs to beat Wake. Lose that and it pretty much guarantees that Duke is playing Wednesday in Washington.

Whichever team wins the Clemson-Virginia game helps us. I guess it helps us most if Clemson upsets Virginia (since we're one-game ahead of Clemson at the moment)

Louisville-Georgia Tech doesn't have much impact, since Louisville's seed doesn't matter and Georgia Tech can't catch us.

So the only must-win Tuesday night is Duke-Wake. I'd rather see Clemson beat Virginia, but even if Virginia win, it takes Clemson off our back.

PS Absolutely stunning how bad a shooter that Marcus Paige has become ... one UNC fan suggested that the aliens from Space Jam have stolen his talent. It's as good an explanation as anything else I've heard. Just hope Newman and Bill Murray don't help him get his mojo back before Saturday
Roy does know how to develop his talent... er... oh...

[kmspeaks]

We ought to switch the ACC seeding discussion to this week's thread.

UNC just eliminated Duke (and Notre Dame) from a shot at the ACC regular season title with their narrow win over Syracuse.

Now the focus is 100 percent on earning a double bye -- I don't care if it's 2-3-or-4.

Take it one night at a time:

Tuesday night, the big one is Duke needs to beat Wake. Lose that and it pretty much guarantees that Duke is playing Wednesday in Washington.

Whichever team wins the Clemson-Virginia game helps us. I guess it helps us most if Clemson upsets Virginia (since we're one-game ahead of Clemson at the moment)

Louisville-Georgia Tech doesn't have much impact, since Louisville's seed doesn't matter and Georgia Tech can't catch us.

So the only must-win Tuesday night is Duke-Wake. I'd rather see Clemson beat Virginia, but even if Virginia win, it takes Clemson off our back.

PS Absolutely stunning how bad a shooter that Marcus Paige has become ... one UNC fan suggested that the aliens from Space Jam have stolen his talent. It's as good an explanation as anything else I've heard. Just hope Newman and Bill Murray don't help him get his mojo back before Saturday

I understand Lousiville can't play in the tournament but is there a situation where Louisville being involved in tiebreakers (or not involved) would make a difference for Duke?

[Olympic Fan]

I understand Lousiville can't play in the tournament but is there a situation where Louisville being involved in tiebreakers (or not involved) would make a difference for Duke?

I checked that out and I couldn't find any situation where that might help us. That's why I suggested that the Louisville-Georgia Tech game doesn't matter to us.

[CDu]

A Clemson loss and Duke win mean we finish no worse than 6th. A Duke win and UVa win hurts our chances of finishing the 3rd seed, and has very little impact on our chances of finishing top-4.

Conversely, a Duke win and Clemson WIN helps us with our chances of the 3 seed, has little impact on getting a top-4 spot, and allows the possibility of finishing the 7 seed.

Our chances of getting a double bye hinge almost entirely on how we finish relative to ND. If we tie ND, we will not get get the double bye. So in my opinion, we want to cheer for Miami and Va Tech against ND and (as a contingency plan) cheer for whomever is playing against Pitt and Clemson.

Tonight, that means GO WAHOOS!

[CDu]

With Clemson's loss and our win, we are now assured no worse than the 6 seed. A loss by Pitt locks us in the top 5. Gotta hope Miami can finally win a meaningful road game over ND, and then it is time for us to beat UNC again.

[Olympic Fan]

Tuesday was pretty amazing in the ACC -- three favorites won, but all three were pushed to the wire. Our narrow win over Wake was actually the most lopsided win of the night -- Georgia Tech was within one point of Louisville when Lee went to the line with 30 seconds left ... Blossomgame hit a 3 to cut Virginia's lead to one with just over a minute left -- but Perrantes answered with a 3 and Virginia was able to hold on.

I think the greatest impact of the night was the extinguishing of any lingering NCAA hopes for Clemson and Georgia Tech. Both were longshots anyway, but a win Tuesday over a ranked foe would have put them back in the conversation.

As for Duke, we still have to beat UNC Saturday for any real chance at a double bye ... but we also need help.

Three games tonight -- the big one from our point of view is Miami at Notre Dame. We REALLY need Miami to beat the Irish. That would put us in line for the fourth seed.

It would also be nice if VPI beats Pitt -- that would mean Duke will finish ahead of Pitt and would clinch at worst the No. 5 seed.

The BC at NC State game has zero impact in our seeding chances.

Just to be clear, we can lose to UNC and still get the No. 4 seed, if Notre Dame loses its last two (to Miami and NC State at home) AND Pitt loses one of its last two (at VPI or at Georgia Tech). The thing is, I can see any and all of those happening -- except NC State beating Notre Dame in South Bend.

And, besides, I'd rather beat UNC Saturday and finish with the No. 5 seed (if Notre Dame wins out) than lose to UNC and win the No. 4 seed (if Notre Dame loses out).

[nocilla]

If we do beat UNC Saturday, then UVA can then take the #1 seed with a win over Louisville right? I guess Miami is still possible as well but we will know more about them after tonight.

I ask because it looks like we will be the #4 or #5 seed in the tourney. So who do we want as the #1 seed as that would potentially be our Friday opponent. I think UVA may be the top team again but us beating UNC Saturday probably leads to them being the #1 seed.

Now that I think about it, I would actually like to see Miami as the #1. A rematch with them I think bodes well for Duke. Plus that puts UNC and UVA on the other side of the bracket. Of course we'll have to win a rematch with Pitt or ND on Thursday first, and maybe an NCSU/WF on Wednesday, so maybe I'm looking to far ahead.

[CDu]

If we do beat UNC Saturday, then UVA can then take the #1 seed with a win over Louisville right? I guess Miami is still possible as well but we will know more about them after tonight.

I ask because it looks like we will be the #4 or #5 seed in the tourney. So who do we want as the #1 seed as that would potentially be our Friday opponent. I think UVA may be the top team again but us beating UNC Saturday probably leads to them being the #1 seed.

Now that I think about it, I would actually like to see Miami as the #1. A rematch with them I think bodes well for Duke. Plus that puts UNC and UVA on the other side of the bracket. Of course we'll have to win a rematch with Pitt or ND on Thursday first, and maybe an NCSU/WF on Wednesday, so maybe I'm looking to far ahead.

Winning against UNC-CH takes precedence over all else. First and foremost, because that is always preferred. Always. But beyond that, beating UNC-CH might knock them out of a regular season title. So, good from the schadenfreud perspective. But from a practical standpoint, beating UNC-CH gives us our best chance at getting a top 4 seed. I would MUCH prefer a 3-day path to the title that may require both UVa and UNC-CH than a 4-day path the only puts us against one of UVa/UNC-CH.

[nocilla]

Winning against UNC-CH takes precedence over all else. First and foremost, because that is always preferred. Always. But beyond that, beating UNC-CH might knock them out of a regular season title. So, good from the schadenfreud perspective. But from a practical standpoint, beating UNC-CH gives us our best chance at getting a top 4 seed. I would MUCH prefer a 3-day path to the title that may require both UVa and UNC-CH than a 4-day path the only puts us against one of UVa/UNC-CH.

I agree that beating UNC takes precedence over all else and I will be cheering for Duke regardless of seeding implications. I was just interested in other thoughts on the tournament seeding. UNC can still win the #1 seed even if they lose to us. Miami and Virginia are possibilities and Pitt/ND can still bump Duke to the #5 seed. So where do we prefer to see the other top seeds? I think I'm pulling for Miami to win out.

Another interesting scenario; If Miami loses both games @ND and @VT, and NCSU beats ND along with our beating UNC, that makes the 8:30 UVA/Lou game huge. A UVA win would earn them the #1 seed in the tourney and a share of the regular season title. A loss drops them all the way to the #5 seed and bumps Duke up to #3. I would still rather have Miami win out though because it would knock UNC out of the regular season title.

[Wahoo2000]

Another interesting scenario; If Miami loses both games @ND and @VT, and NCSU beats ND along with our beating UNC, that makes the 8:30 UVA/Lou game huge. A UVA win would earn them the #1 seed in the tourney and a share of the regular season title. A loss drops them all the way to the #5 seed and bumps Duke up to #3. I would still rather have Miami win out though because it would knock UNC out of the regular season title.

You'll have to explain to me how we (UVA) could get the 5 seed in the above scenario, I'm just not getting it. (But I did only go to UVA after all, so....) ;-)

[pfrduke]

You'll have to explain to me how we (UVA) could get the 5 seed in the above scenario, I'm just not getting it. (But I did only go to UVA after all, so...) ;-)

They wouldn't - Notre Dame would have 7 losses. I think Virginia's win last night locked them into top 4, but I will admit to not remembering exactly how the tiebreakers work if we end up with Duke, UVA, Miami, and Notre Dame all at 12-6. Duke has the worst record collectively against those common opponents (1-2), but would win a tiebreaker with Virginia if they ever got head-to-head. If it's slotted just based on common record, you would have Miami (3-2), Virginia (2-2), Notre Dame (2-2), Duke (1-2). So Miami definitely gets the 2 seed there. But I don't know if Duke automatically gets the 5 or if you then do a three-way tiebreaker for 3rd, followed by a two-way tiebreaker for 4th. If you did that, it gets complicated. All three of Duke, Virginia, and Notre Dame are 1-1 against each other. All three in this scenario would be undefeated against UNC. So then you would go to the record against Miami - Duke would drop out but both UVA and Notre Dame are 1-1 against Miami. Then I'm not sure whether you go back to head-to-head between UVA and Notre Dame (which Virginia would win) or if you go to head-to-head against the next highest common opponent (which would be Duke, and then Notre Dame would win). Depending on which you use, Duke would win a tiebreaker with Virginia for 4th but lose one with Notre Dame. So if the very convoluted tiebreaker is what the ACC uses, I guess it's still theoretically possible for Virginia to finish 5th.

[pfrduke]

They wouldn't - Notre Dame would have 7 losses. I think Virginia's win last night locked them into top 4, but I will admit to not remembering exactly how the tiebreakers work if we end up with Duke, UVA, Miami, and Notre Dame all at 12-6. Duke has the worst record collectively against those common opponents (1-2), but would win a tiebreaker with Virginia if they ever got head-to-head. If it's slotted just based on common record, you would have Miami (3-2), Virginia (2-2), Notre Dame (2-2), Duke (1-2). So Miami definitely gets the 2 seed there. But I don't know if Duke automatically gets the 5 or if you then do a three-way tiebreaker for 3rd, followed by a two-way tiebreaker for 4th. If you did that, it gets complicated. All three of Duke, Virginia, and Notre Dame are 1-1 against each other. All three in this scenario would be undefeated against UNC. So then you would go to the record against Miami - Duke would drop out but both UVA and Notre Dame are 1-1 against Miami. Then I'm not sure whether you go back to head-to-head between UVA and Notre Dame (which Virginia would win) or if you go to head-to-head against the next highest common opponent (which would be Duke, and then Notre Dame would win). Depending on which you use, Duke would win a tiebreaker with Virginia for 4th but lose one with Notre Dame. So if the very convoluted tiebreaker is what the ACC uses, I guess it's still theoretically possible for Virginia to finish 5th.

This scenario generator suggests that a Miami, Virginia, Notre Dame, Duke tie leaves those teams slotted in that order. http://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=mbb

HOWEVER, if Miami loses to ND and beats VT (finishing at 13-5), the generator suggests that ND wins a three-way tiebreaker with Duke and UVA and then Duke beats UVA head to head. So if Miami, UNC, and Louisville are all 13-5 and ND, UVA, and Duke are all 12-6, it's UVA that ends up #5.

[pfrduke]

Further replying to myself - if UVA and Duke both end up 12-6, the only way that UVA is seeded ahead of Duke is if both Notre Dame and Miami are also 12-6. Duke wins a two-way tiebreaker and three-way tiebreakers with either Notre Dame or Miami; it only ends up in the 5 seed if it's a four-way tiebreaker. Of course, if UVA and Duke are in 12-6 tiebreakers without Notre Dame, then it's for the 3/4 slot (or 2/3/4 slots, if it's with Miami as well), rather than the 4/5 slot.

[pfrduke]

You'll have to explain to me how we (UVA) could get the 5 seed in the above scenario, I'm just not getting it. (But I did only go to UVA after all, so...) ;-)

There is actually a scenario where the UVA-UL game is a 1 or 5 outcome for UVA, but it's not what was described. For that scenario, Notre Dame needs to beat Miami and NCSU, Miami needs to beat Virginia Tech, and Duke needs to beat UNC. If all those things happen, then a UVA win over Louisville makes it the 1-seed at 13-5, but a loss makes it the 5-seed at 12-6 because it loses a Duke, ND, UVA tiebreaker.

[Billy Dat]

Based on the way the season has played out, is there any indication of how the unbalanced schedule toughness ranks for each team? Which of UNC, UVA, Miami, Louisville, Duke and ND had to play the other 5 the most times and had the least games against BC, Wake, VTech, or however they figure it out. Does the KenPom subscription offer that level of schedule toughness analysis? I guess I should just pay my $20 and find out.

[Wahoo2000]

There is actually a scenario where the UVA-UL game is a 1 or 5 outcome for UVA, but it's not what was described. For that scenario, Notre Dame needs to beat Miami and NCSU, Miami needs to beat Virginia Tech, and Duke needs to beat UNC. If all those things happen, then a UVA win over Louisville makes it the 1-seed at 13-5, but a loss makes it the 5-seed at 12-6 because it loses a Duke, ND, UVA tiebreaker.

Sorry to keep asking - can you explain how a Duke/ND/UVA tie would be broken? All are 1-1 vs each other, so then it goes to record against the highest finishing team - but if UNC/Lou/Mia all finish 13-5, which team do they start with as "highest"?

[Wahoo2000]

Based on the way the season has played out, is there any indication of how the unbalanced schedule toughness ranks for each team? Which of UNC, UVA, Miami, Louisville, Duke and ND had to play the other 5 the most times and had the least games against BC, Wake, VTech, or however they figure it out. Does the KenPom subscription offer that level of schedule toughness analysis? I guess I should just pay my $20 and find out.

Virginia has the highest ranked conference SOS of the 6, with still a game vs Louisville (KP#8) to play. As to which teams played each other top teams the most and bottom teams the least, that should be relatively easy for you to find just looking at the schedules.

FYI - the top 6 teams have 6 of the 7 "easiest" conference schedules, but that's hardly uncommon. Usually those conference schedule strengths are somewhat an inverse of the standings, with only slight exceptions here and there, since the "best" teams don't have to/get to play themselves.

[nocilla]

You'll have to explain to me how we (UVA) could get the 5 seed in the above scenario, I'm just not getting it. (But I did only go to UVA after all, so...) ;-)

Apparently something changed with the simulator once they entered last night's results because I can't get it to do the same thing now. I was using last night's results but apparently there was an error. I can't get UVA lower than a 4 seed now.

But the first tie-breaker for multiple teams is their records against those teams that are tied.

[pfrduke]

Sorry to keep asking - can you explain how a Duke/ND/UVA tie would be broken? All are 1-1 vs each other, so then it goes to record against the highest finishing team - but if UNC/Lou/Mia all finish 13-5, which team do they start with as "highest"?

Their collective record against UNC/Lou/Mia. Duke would be 3-2, UVA would be 3-2, ND would be 3-1. So ND gets the 3 seed and then the Duke/UVA tie is broken by head-to-head.

[Wahoo2000]

Their collective record against UNC/Lou/Mia. Duke would be 3-2, UVA would be 3-2, ND would be 3-1. So ND gets the 3 seed and then the Duke/UVA tie is broken by head-to-head.

Thanks! I think best case scenario for us is to beat Lou (obviously), and UNC to hold on to #1 by beating you guys Sat, and Miami to win at least one more game. While a 3rd straight regular season title (shared) is still in reach, I think I prefer a tourney setup that features Miami in our half, and all of UNC/Duke/ND on the other side. Let you guys all beat up on each other, then I think I'd hope Duke gets through to the title game. Gives us a chance at revenge, plus with your depth issues, playing our D on the 3rd day of 38+ min for Allen/Plumlee/Ingram/Jones can only be good for us.

[cato]

Thanks! I think best case scenario for us is to beat Lou (obviously), and UNC to hold on to #1 by beating you guys Sat, and Miami to win at least one more game. While a 3rd straight regular season title (shared) is still in reach, I think I prefer a tourney setup that features Miami in our half, and all of UNC/Duke/ND on the other side. Let you guys all beat up on each other, then I think I'd hope Duke gets through to the title game. Gives us a chance at revenge, plus with your depth issues, playing our D on the 3rd day of 38+ min for Allen/Plumlee/Ingram/Jones can only be good for us.

Root for the banner, and then let the tourney take care of itself. At least, that's how I approach things.

Eta: a third straight regular season title would really be something. I remember starting to take the ACC championship just a bit for granted. Now I want Duke to win another one quite badly.

[Wahoo2000]

Root for the banner, and then let the tourney take care of itself. At least, that's how I approach things.

Eta: a third straight regular season title would really be something. I remember starting to take the ACC championship just a bit for granted. Now I want Duke to win another one quite badly.

Normally I'd agree, but I think the only path to a 1-seed is ACC title game at a minimum, if not winning it. And while ACC titles are amazing and never to be unappreciated, we REALLY need to prove that we can make a deep tourney run. It's the only barrier to us being a truly elite program right now. I'll take ANY help in getting an advantage to get to at least an E8 or FF over a shared regular season crown, though 3 straight ones would be incredibly impressive and I'd HARDLY be "disappointed".

However, if we bow out before the S16 again this year, I'll be crushed, and still pretty disappointed if we can't at least get to a regional final and play well there. To think about the teams we've fielded over the last 3 years, and not even play a single game for a final 4 berth....... just a very disappointing prospect.

[brevity]

Normally I'd agree, but I think the only path to a 1-seed is ACC title game at a minimum, if not winning it. And while ACC titles are amazing and never to be unappreciated, we REALLY need to prove that we can make a deep tourney run. It's the only barrier to us being a truly elite program right now. I'll take ANY help in getting an advantage to get to at least an E8 or FF over a shared regular season crown, though 3 straight ones would be incredibly impressive and I'd HARDLY be "disappointed".

However, if we bow out before the S16 again this year, I'll be crushed, and still pretty disappointed if we can't at least get to a regional final and play well there. To think about the teams we've fielded over the last 3 years, and not even play a single game for a final 4 berth... just a very disappointing prospect.

Virginia needs Michigan State to be in another region. If they both get top seeds, that should do it.

(Even if they don't both get top seeds, I think it highly unlikely they will share a region. Michigan State is going to be a 1 or 2 seed in the Chicago regional, because they have almost no Big Ten competition. Virginia only gets Chicago if the Selection Committee favors both UNC and Miami.)

[Furniture]

http://youtu.be/96WX3Lu4q28

All in all pretty funny light hearted revenge from UNC students.

[ChillinDuke]

Three games tonight -- the big one from our point of view is Miami at Notre Dame. We REALLY need Miami to beat the Irish. That would put us in line for the fourth seed.

As you wish...

...thus far.

- Chillin

[CDu]

Good start to the night as Miami whooped ND. That puts us currently in the 4th seed, and we now control our own destiny for a double bye.

If Pitt continues to lose to Va Tech, then we will be locked into the top 5 seeds, and another ND loss would seal our top 4 spot.

[Olympic Fan]

Tonight's games couldn't have helped us more.

Miami's win at Notre Dame gives us the fourth seed at the moment and unless Virginia Tech blows a double-digit lead in the last six minutes, we are guaranteed no worse than the fifth seed.

To clinch the No. 4 seed, we need to either beat UNC Saturday (my choice) OR have NC State win at Notre Dame (unfortunately, unlikely)

We can get the No. 3 seed if Duke beats UNC AND Louisville beats Virginia.

With Notre Dame losing tonight, Virginia clinches a double bye ... UNC and Miami also have a double bye locked up -- it's Duke or Notre Dame for the other.

[FerryFor50]

Tonight's games couldn't have helped us more.

Miami's win at Notre Dame gives us the fourth seed at the moment and unless Virginia Tech blows a double-digit lead in the last six minutes, we are guaranteed no worse than the fifth seed.

To clinch the No. 4 seed, we need to either beat UNC Saturday (my choice) OR have NC State win at Notre Dame (unfortunately, unlikely)

We can get the No. 3 seed if Duke beats UNC AND Louisville beats Virginia.

With Notre Dame losing tonight, Virginia clinches a double bye ... UNC and Miami also have a double bye locked up -- it's Duke or Notre Dame for the other.

Glad to see the "we beat Duke" curse is alive and well. Way to mess the bed, Pitt.

[devildeac]

Glad to see the "we beat Duke" curse is alive and well. Way to mess the bed, Pitt.

I believe Papa John owes someone $1000 from this "bet" that originated from chat on Sunday (and it's not me-I'm "betting" on a somewhat early exit from the NCAAT for the Pittsters).

;)

[ncexnyc]

Glad to see the "we beat Duke" curse is alive and well. Way to mess the bed, Pitt.
I mentioned this very thing in my write-up after Sunday's game.

It seems no matter how well a team plays when they beat us, instead of moving forward with momentum, they fall flat on their face.

[dukelifer]

I believe Papa John owes someone $1000 from this "bet" that originated from chat on Sunday (and it's not me-I'm "betting" on a somewhat early exit from the NCAAT for the Pittsters).

;)

That would be me- but I unfortunately failed to take the bet. Just satisfied that I saw that one coming from a mile away.

[Olympic Fan]

I don't know how many watched, but the meaningless BC at NC State game was amazing ...

BC led most of the way and was up one with 1.1 second left. State had the ball out underneath its own basket. BC botched the inbounds defense, allowing Cody Martin to feed Maverick Rowan under the basket for an easy layup and a one-point Wolfpack win. Heartbreaker for the Eagles.

We could see State again ... if we wind up the fifth seed, we face the winner of Tuesday's Wake-NC State game in our ACC opener Wednesday.

I think I've got this broken down right. Duke can still be the 3-4-or-5 seed in the tournament:

No. 3 seed -- Duke must beat UNC and Louisville must beat Virginia. Both Duke and Virginia would be 12-6, but Duke would have the head-to-head tiebreaker.

No. 4 seed -- Duke beats UNC and Virginia beats Louisville. Virginia finishes 13-5 and gets the No. 1 seed if Miami loses (UNC at 13-5 would be the No. 3 seed) or the No. 2 seed if Miami wins.

No. 4 seed -- Duke loses to UNC, but Notre Dame loses to NC State ... Duke at 11-7 would be ahead of Notre Dame at 10-8. A bunch of other teams could finish 10-8 also, but nobody but Notre Dame has a chance to get to 11-7.

No. 5 seed -- Duke loses to UNC and Notre Dame beats N.C. State. Duke and Notre Dame would be tied at 11-7, but the Irish win the tiebreaker and get the fourth seed.

The battle for the first five seeds is fairly straightforward and the last three spots are set (No. 12 NC State, No. 13 Wake Forest and No. 14 Boston College). The battle for the No. 11 seed is also easy to figure -- Florida State and Georgia Tech are tied at 7-10. If both win or both lose, then Georgia Tech wins the tiebreaker and FSU opens against BC on Tuesday. The only way the 'Noles escape the first-round is to beat Syracuse at home Saturday, while Georgia Tech loses at home to Pitt.

The real mess is in the middle -- four teams are 9-8: Clemson, Syracuse, Pitt and Virginia Tech.

It's too late tonight to try and figure out all the possible combinations for those four teams, but I think they could wind up in any order (plus any of Saturday's winners could catch Notre Dame for fifth seed if the 10-7 Irish lose to State).

[TKG]

Way to consolidate that win, Pitt!!!

[Bob Green]

Saturday
[34]Notre Dame hosts [67]NC State (12:00, CBS)
[260]Boston College hosts [49]Clemson (12:00, ESPN3)
[45]Florida State hosts [42]Syracuse (2:00, ESPN2)
[63]Georgia Tech hosts [40]Pittsburgh (2:00, ACCN)
[89]Virginia Tech hosts [11]Miami (4:00, ACCN)
[13]Duke hosts [5]North Carolina (6:30, ESPN)
[3]Virginia hosts [7]Louisville (8:30, ESPN)



Last day of the regular season has arrived so this is a great time to say "Thank you very much!" to pfrduke for posting this thread each and every week. Your efforts are appreciated.

[wgl1228]

As of right now the Pack are beating the Irish. Please let this hold out!

[BandAlum83]

As of right now the Pack are beating the Irish. Please let this hold out!

It would take all the pressure of tonight's game. At least for the fans. I wonder if the team is even thinking about it.

But as I said the other night, what is up with ND? It's a him game. Senior day, no less, against a much inferior opponent.

[devildeac]

As of right now the Pack are beating the Irish. Please let this hold out!

Wheels falling off the NCSU tractor now, down 12 with 8:44 to go.

[BandAlum83]

Ok, I guess ND figured it out. Look in mid season form now. Up by 16, 85 points with 3:28 left

[Bob Green]

Notre Dame wins so we have to beat UNC tonight to earn a double bye. That is fine with me because I'm confident we are going to win.

[Billy Dat]

Brutal post-game interview with Brey saying he's going to dig out his old Dean Smith basketball camp tshirt and wear it while rooting for the Heels to beat Duke. Et tu MikeBrey?

[Olympic Fan]

And Clemson beats BC to finish 10-8 and clinch at least a share of sixth place (Syracuse, Pitt and Virginia Tech can also finish 10-8 with a win today).

BC becomes the first 0-18 team in ACC history.

[devildeac]

Brutal post-game interview with Brey saying he's going to dig out his old Dean Smith basketball camp tshirt and wear it while rooting for the Heels to beat Duke. Et tu MikeBrey?

Well, cross him off our list:

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?15455-Coach-K-s-eventual-successor


SMH.

[NSDukeFan]

Brutal post-game interview with Brey saying he's going to dig out his old Dean Smith basketball camp tshirt and wear it while rooting for the Heels to beat Duke. Et tu MikeBrey?

Right now he doesn't give a s%&t about Duke?

[Doria]

Wow, Pitt and Syracuse not doing themselves any favors today. Hope Carolina takes after them.

[tbyers11]

Wow, Pitt and Syracuse not doing themselves any favors today. Hope Carolina takes after them.

Miami has a high NCAA seed wrapped up but they aren't doing themselves any favors either in trying to get a regular season crown. Down 32-21 at the half @VT

[Doria]

Miami has a high NCAA seed wrapped up but they aren't doing themselves any favors either in trying to get a regular season crown. Down 32-21 at the half @VT

They aren't doing us any favors, either, as I'd much rather play them before facing a winner of UNC-Virginia (if I'm reading the bracket correctly).

[gurufrisbee]

Did someone confuse Louisville into thinking their season was already over or were they all just too tired from the hookers last night? 1 point in 8 minutes? I've seen blind people shoot half court shots for 8 minutes and score more.

[devildeac]

l-ville with 8 pts in 14 min-and no elbows