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pfrduke
02-22-2016, 12:41 AM
I could almost re-write last week's intro - UNC still has just a one game lead, 7th place is still within 2.5 games of first, and the 6-way tie for first remains actually a conceivable prospect (if unlikely for the obvious reason that any 6-way tie is unlikely). Once again, the ACC schedule is backloaded for a lot of top teams which means we get great matchups every week down the stretch.

Monday
[15]Miami hosts [2]Virginia (7:00, ESPN)

Tuesday
[61]Georgia Tech hosts [53]Clemson (7:00, ESPN3)
[252]Boston College hosts [104]Virginia Tech (9:00, ESPNU) - someone in the league office should be fired for letting this game on the national TV schedule

Wednesday
[47]Pittsburgh hosts [7]Louisville (8:00, ESPN3)
[64]NC State hosts [6]North Carolina (8:00, ESPN3)
[124]Wake Forest hosts [23]Notre Dame (9:00, ESPN3)

Thursday
[11]Duke hosts [55]Florida State (7:00, ESPN)

Friday is dark

Saturday
[252]Boston College hosts [61]Georgia Tech (12:00, ESPN3)
[44]Syracuse hosts [64]NC State (2:00, ESPN3)
[15]Miami hosts [7]Louisville (2:00, ESPN3)
[55]Florida State hosts [23]Notre Dame (4:00, ESPN2)
[2]Virginia hosts [6]North Carolina (6:30, ESPN)

Sunday
[47]Pittsburgh hosts [11]Duke (2:00, CBS)
[124]Wake Forest hosts [104]Virginia Tech (6:30, ESPNU)

wgl1228
02-22-2016, 06:18 AM
We need Miami to beat UVA but UVA to beat UNC. Then we need to win and Miami beat Louisville. UNC losing to State or the Irish losing would be a big cherry on top. I think Miami will lose one or two of their final games.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-22-2016, 08:00 AM
We need Miami to beat UVA but UVA to beat UNC. Then we need to win and Miami beat Louisville. UNC losing to State or the Irish losing would be a big cherry on top. I think Miami will lose one or two of their final games.

We just need to win.

CDu
02-22-2016, 10:32 AM
Huge week for two of the bubble teams. Pitt hosts Louisville and Duke. FSU goes to Duke and then hosts Notre Dame. Pitt needs one of those to feel good about its tourney hopes. FSU probably needs both.

devildeac
02-22-2016, 09:04 PM
Ok, Wolfpack, you know your job.

Newton_14
02-22-2016, 09:23 PM
Watching UVA is maddening to me. They have no sense of urgency ever. Walking the ball up the court down 3 with 15 seconds left, just casually taking their time to finally take a layup with 3.7 seconds left, leaving them precious little time for the next possession after fouling. End result? A bricked 3 from halfcourt.

Sigh...

Troublemaker
02-22-2016, 09:28 PM
Watching UVA is maddening to me. They have no sense of urgency ever. Walking the ball up the court down 3 with 15 seconds left, just casually taking their time to finally take a layup with 3.7 seconds left, leaving them precious little time for the next possession after fouling. End result? A bricked 3 from halfcourt.

Sigh...

Were you rooting for them? UVA losing was a good result for Duke tonight, if like me, you're still stubbornly rooting for at least a first place tie.

wgl1228 has the right idea above. Hopefully it works out that way.

(Of course, if Duke manages to win the last 4 games on the regular season schedule, I'm pretty sure I'll be elated no matter where we end up in the standings.)

Newton_14
02-22-2016, 09:33 PM
Were you rooting for them? UVA losing was a good result for Duke tonight, if like me, you're still stubbornly rooting for at least a first place tie.

wgl1228 has the right idea above. Hopefully it works out that way.

(Of course, if Duke manages to win the last 4 games on the regular season schedule, I'm pretty sure I'll be elated no matter where we end up in the standings.)

Well to be honest yes, because I just loathe Miami (apologies DWine)... but wasn't thinking from a "who do we need to win" standpoint... But I will point out it also helps the Cheats unless we can win out and UVA beats the Cheats (which I guess is not a stretch)

So for now... glad UVA lost...but they are still maddening to watch...

CDu
02-22-2016, 09:36 PM
We need Miami to beat UVA but UVA to beat UNC. Then we need to win and Miami beat Louisville. UNC losing to State or the Irish losing would be a big cherry on top. I think Miami will lose one or two of their final games.

Louisville has plenty of losable games left: at Pitt, at Miami, at UVa. I would just prefer them to beat Miami so that we don't have to sweat it with Miami against Notre Dame or Va Tech.

But really, now that Miami won tonight, the UVa/UNC game is the last real domino left for us to control our destiny again. Then "all" we have to do is win out, and the rest (Miami and Louisville losing) should take care of itself.

Perhaps the ideal scenario is for Louisville to beat Miami and lose to Pitt and UVa and for Miami to lose to Va Tech, and Notre Dame to beat Miami. Then, if we win out, we share the regular season title and get the top seed in the ACC tourney.

Olympic Fan
02-22-2016, 10:37 PM
I thought it was a great game ... and Malcolm Brogdon did nothing to hurt his ACC POY chances -- 28 points and 8-of-9 from the floor in the second half (plus a good defensive job on McClellan.

Duke needs four things to happen to win at least a share of the ACC regular season title:

(1) Duke needs to win out -- and with Amile likely back soon (based on Grayson's tweet today) that's not farfetched. Not a given either with real tough games at Pitt and the finale at home with UNC.

(2) Miami needs to lose one more. I think this is likely -- the Canes are hellacious at home (8-0 in the ACC) and quite average on the road (3-4 with wins over BC, GTECH and FSU). None of the four road losses (at Virginia, NC State, Clemson or UNC was close). Very good chance they lose at Notre Dame, maybe even at Virginia Tech (which has also had a big home/road split).

(3) Louisville needs to lose one more. They have three more road games left -- at Miami, at Pitt and the finale at Virginia. Pretty sure they lose one, if not two.

(4) Somebody else has to beat UNC before they come to Durham. Best chance is Saturday night at Virginia, but Tuesday night at NC State is possible (State is a very erratic team, but they've had some good outings, especially at home).

If those four things happen, Duke will be tied with 1-2-3-4 other teams at 13-5. Frankly, I don't care about the tiebreakers (except to avoid the fifth seed) -- I want a share of the title. And even if five teams (not including Louisville) are tied at 13-5, Duke would not be the No. 5 seed (UNC would be fifth in a five-way tie -- another reason to pull for a five-way tie).

jv001
02-23-2016, 11:10 AM
I thought it was a great game ... and Malcolm Brogdon did nothing to hurt his ACC POY chances -- 28 points and 8-of-9 from the floor in the second half (plus a good defensive job on McClellan.

Duke needs four things to happen to win at least a share of the ACC regular season title:

(1) Duke needs to win out -- and with Amile likely back soon (based on Grayson's tweet today) that's not farfetched. Not a given either with real tough games at Pitt and the finale at home with UNC.

(2) Miami needs to lose one more. I think this is likely -- the Canes are hellacious at home (8-0 in the ACC) and quite average on the road (3-4 with wins over BC, GTECH and FSU). None of the four road losses (at Virginia, NC State, Clemson or UNC was close). Very good chance they lose at Notre Dame, maybe even at Virginia Tech (which has also had a big home/road split).

(3) Louisville needs to lose one more. They have three more road games left -- at Miami, at Pitt and the finale at Virginia. Pretty sure they lose one, if not two.

(4) Somebody else has to beat UNC before they come to Durham. Best chance is Saturday night at Virginia, but Tuesday night at NC State is possible (State is a very erratic team, but they've had some good outings, especially at home).

If those four things happen, Duke will be tied with 1-2-3-4 other teams at 13-5. Frankly, I don't care about the tiebreakers (except to avoid the fifth seed) -- I want a share of the title. And even if five teams (not including Louisville) are tied at 13-5, Duke would not be the No. 5 seed (UNC would be fifth in a five-way tie -- another reason to pull for a five-way tie).

Now that would be fitting. Begin the payback for all the years of cheating. GoDuke!

CDu
02-23-2016, 09:14 PM
Clemson's bubble likely just burst with their loss to Ga Tech tonight. Their RPI will be in the 100s (strangely, they are WAY behind Ga Tech in RPI), and they now don't exactly have a strong ACC record to buoy their case. Realistically, their best bet is a 10-8 finish in conference, which won't be enough to overcome an abysmal non-conference schedule and an awful road/neutral record. So, see ya Tigers!

sagegrouse
02-24-2016, 12:01 AM
Clemson's bubble likely just burst with their loss to Ga Tech tonight. Their RPI will be in the 100s (strangely, they are WAY behind Ga Tech in RPI), and they now don't exactly have a strong ACC record to buoy their case. Realistically, their best bet is a 10-8 finish in conference, which won't be enough to overcome an abysmal non-conference schedule and an awful road/neutral record. So, see ya Tigers!

Probably so, although the Tigers have an "existential right" to become the ACC champions by winning the tournament.

CDu
02-24-2016, 07:40 AM
Probably so, although the Tigers have an "existential right" to become the ACC champions by winning the tournament.

Yeah, if they can win four neutral-site games in four days, they get an automatic bid. And frankly, they will deserve it if they pull that off. I don't think that will happen. But you are correct: last night's loss only killed their at large chances.

wgl1228
02-24-2016, 03:57 PM
Alright just a few hours away. Let's go home teams (pitt, state, and wake)!!!!

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-24-2016, 04:00 PM
I'm not one to try and calculate which game results in conference are to Duke's benefit (I tend to assume that if we take care of business, everything else will work out) but I would sure like to see NCSU knock off UNC tonight.

Unlikely? Sure.

Impossible? Nope.

Olympic Fan
02-24-2016, 04:30 PM
I'm not one to try and calculate which game results in conference are to Duke's benefit (I tend to assume that if we take care of business, everything else will work out) but I would sure like to see NCSU knock off UNC tonight.

Unlikely? Sure.

Impossible? Nope.

If Duke wins out, we still need help ... we need UNC to lose one other game (at State, at Virginia or home to Syracuse) ... we need Miami to lose one more game (Louisville at home, at Notre Dame or at VPI) ... and we need Louisville to lose one more game (at Pitt, Miami, Georgia Tech at home, at Virginia).

Duke can take care of the rest.

So the two big ones tonight -- for our interests -- are UNC at NC State and Louisville at Pitt. Notre Dame at Wake might help for the double bye if we finish 12-6, but doesn't impact our quest to win a share of the regular season title.

Then again, do you need a reason to pull for the Cheats to lose?

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-24-2016, 04:59 PM
If Duke wins out, we still need help ... we need UNC to lose one other game (at State, at Virginia or home to Syracuse) ... we need Miami to lose one more game (Louisville at home, at Notre Dame or at VPI) ... and we need Louisville to lose one more game (at Pitt, Miami, Georgia Tech at home, at Virginia).

Duke can take care of the rest.

So the two big ones tonight -- for our interests -- are UNC at NC State and Louisville at Pitt. Notre Dame at Wake might help for the double bye if we finish 12-6, but doesn't impact our quest to win a share of the regular season title.

Then again, do you need a reason to pull for the Cheats to lose?

I know that there are other things in play, I have just felt for weeks that if we kept our own house in order, things would properly fall into place.

More to your point, of course I'm always in favor of UNC losing.

Doria
02-24-2016, 05:33 PM
More to your point, of course I'm always in favor of UNC losing.

Because you have priorities in place :D

If I'm horribly honest, even if it would help us, I just don't think I could pull for Carolina. I think I remember trying to root for them to win in some game of the NCAAT under the theoretical auspice that it would probably help us, but I just ended up feeling uncomfortable and turning off the TV in frustration.

devildeac
02-24-2016, 05:39 PM
Because you have priorities in place :D

If I'm horribly honest, even if it would help us, I just don't think I could pull for Carolina. I think I remember trying to root for them to win in some game of the NCAAT under the theoretical auspice that it would probably help us, but I just ended up feeling uncomfortable and turning off the TV in frustration.

Safe for viewing:

http://images.footballfanatics.com/FFImage/thumb.aspx?i=/productImages%2F_1139000%2Fff_1139416_xl.jpg&w=400

rasputin
02-24-2016, 05:39 PM
Because you have priorities in place :D

If I'm horribly honest, even if it would help us, I just don't think I could pull for Carolina. I think I remember trying to root for them to win in some game of the NCAAT under the theoretical auspice that it would probably help us, but I just ended up feeling uncomfortable and turning off the TV in frustration.

When one has "tried" to root for Carolina, for any reason, I don't think that just turning off the TV is enough. I'm thinking more along the lines of exorcism.

Doria
02-24-2016, 05:45 PM
Safe for viewing:

http://images.footballfanatics.com/FFImage/thumb.aspx?i=/productImages%2F_1139000%2Fff_1139416_xl.jpg&w=400

Ha, that's about right!

dukelion
02-24-2016, 08:22 PM
Cat Barber absolutely en fuego right now.....might go for 40.

Merlindevildog91
02-24-2016, 08:26 PM
Roy missed his dadgum calling. He made his first two substitutions at the 18:44 mark. It looked like a hockey line change.

Dr. Rosenrosen
02-24-2016, 08:35 PM
Cat Barber absolutely en fuego right now...might go for 40.
Has no help out there whatsoever right now.

millerecu
02-24-2016, 08:56 PM
What I find interesting is that I live in eastern NC and do not have the Crapolina vs. NCSU game available on TV. How is that even possible? Double secret uNCcheat probation?

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-24-2016, 09:00 PM
It was listed here near Asheville as "Pitt/UL" but trust me, it's UNC/State.

devildeac
02-24-2016, 09:56 PM
Now I know why they had motion sickness bags lining Edwards Mill Road and Wade Avenue on 2 sides of the PNC Center as I returned to my office after dropping our son off at the airport early this afternoon. :mad:

wgl1228
02-24-2016, 09:59 PM
Didn't expect a State win but man Louisville caught fire again in the last two minutes and beat Pitt. Maybe Wake can pull an upset.

jipops
02-24-2016, 10:39 PM
The cheats appear to be in full bounce back mode. I allow myself to watch them play State. The Duke loss already appears to be a distant memory. That was some impressive defensive play by the cheats.

devildeac
02-24-2016, 10:57 PM
Interesting to look at the ND-WFU box score on espn. The 5 starters are listed and then Wake has 14 (no typo) players for their bench guys:eek:. Is Manning taking lessons from the old Huckster in Orange County?

FerryFor50
02-24-2016, 10:59 PM
The cheats appear to be in full bounce back mode. I allow myself to watch them play State. The Duke loss already appears to be a distant memory. That was some impressive defensive play by the cheats.

Yea the Duke loss could have gone one of two ways:

1) They could have wallowed in their sorrows and dropped the Miami game and maybe the State game.
2) It woke up a sleeping giant and re-focused them to apply that talent.

Looks like #2 is in full effect.

Olympic Fan
02-25-2016, 12:17 AM
FWIW, we now know that Boston College and Wake Forest will play Tuesday in the ACC Tournament (although their seeding could still change). NC State is also likely in the Tuesday doubleheader, but the Pack still has a mathematical chance to win the single bye.

Georgia Tech and Florida State are currently tied for ninth place ... losing to Duke Thursday would at least temporarily drop FSU to 10th -- and put them in position to play Tuesday.

Bob Green
02-27-2016, 12:09 PM
Saturday
[252]Boston College hosts [61]Georgia Tech (12:00, ESPN3)
[44]Syracuse hosts [64]NC State (2:00, ESPN3)
[15]Miami hosts [7]Louisville (2:00, ESPN3)
[55]Florida State hosts [23]Notre Dame (4:00, ESPN2)
[2]Virginia hosts [6]North Carolina (6:30, ESPN)



To help Duke achieve a double bye in the ACC Tournament, we need Florida State to beat Notre Dame and Louisville to beat Miami. UNC over Virginia would be a better outcome, from a seeding perspective, but I'll pull for Virginia anyway.

Of course, as always, the most important factor is for Duke to win tomorrow at Pitt.

Olympic Fan
02-27-2016, 12:20 PM
To help Duke achieve a double bye in the ACC Tournament, we need Florida State to beat Notre Dame and Louisville to beat Miami. UNC over Virginia would be a better outcome, from a seeding perspective, but I'll pull for Virginia anyway.

Of course, as always, the most important factor is for Duke to win tomorrow at Pitt.

Absolutely, totally disagree.

Virginia over UNC keeps Duke's hopes for a share of the ACC regular season title alive -- in fact, it turns it into a very real possibility. And if Duke wins a share of the title, no matter how many teams tie for the title, the Devils will earn a double bye (in a five-way tie, which is still possible, UNC gets the dreaded fifth seed).

If UNC beats Virginia, the Cheats are virtually home free for the ACC regular season title. They'd have to lose at home to Syracuse (very unlikely) to give us a chance to tie them in the standings next Saturday).

Bob Green
02-27-2016, 12:25 PM
Absolutely, totally disagree.

Well I'm wrong as usual, but at least I stated I was pulling for Virginia.

BandAlum83
02-27-2016, 12:39 PM
To help Duke achieve a double bye in the ACC Tournament, we need Florida State to beat Notre Dame and Louisville to beat Miami. UNC over Virginia would be a better outcome, from a seeding perspective, but I'll pull for Virginia anyway.

Of course, as always, the most important factor is for Duke to win tomorrow at Pitt.

Have you seen this calculator, Bob, posted on the Exercise in Tie breaker scenarios thread?

http://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=mbb

I've been playing with it and not only do we have a great shot at the double bye, we also have a very reasonable shot at conference co champion. In fact, if all the favorites win the remaining regular season games, the standings end up as shown below. We get a double bye with the #3 seed, but we also end up regular season co-champions. Remember that there is no tie breaker applied to declaring regular season champions.

The 2 key games as I see it are UNC-Duke and UNC-UVA. While a Louisville win today would definitely help us for the double bye, it puts Louisville in good position for CO-champions, and I wouldn't want those thugs to get a piece.

ACC Standings / Seedings if all favorites win to end of season. No tiebreaker applied for declaring champion/ co-champion

1. Virginia (13 - 5) With Duke and Notre Dame, defeated Miami (FL) and North Carolina based on round-robin record. With Notre Dame, defeated Duke based on record against #6 teams. Defeated Notre Dame based on record against #8 teams.
2. Notre Dame (13 - 5) With Duke and Virginia, defeated Miami (FL) and North Carolina based on round-robin record. With Virginia, defeated Duke based on record against #6 teams. Lost to Virginia based on record against #8 teams.
3. Duke (13 - 5) With Notre Dame and Virginia, defeated Miami (FL) and North Carolina based on round-robin record. Lost to Notre Dame and Virginia based on record against #6 teams.
4. Miami (FL) (13 - 5) Defeated North Carolina and lost to Duke, Notre Dame, and Virginia based on round-robin record.
5. North Carolina (13 - 5) Lost to Duke, Notre Dame, Virginia, and Miami (FL) based on round-robin record.
(INELIGIBLE) 6. Louisville (12 - 6)
7. Clemson (10 - 8)
8. Pittsburgh (9 - 9) Defeated Syracuse based on head-to-head record.
9. Syracuse (9 - 9) Lost to Pittsburgh based on head-to-head record.
10. Georgia Tech (8 - 10)
11. Virginia Tech (7 - 11) Defeated Florida State based on head-to-head record.
12. Florida State (7 - 11) Lost to Virginia Tech based on head-to-head record.
13. North Carolina State (5 - 13)
14. Wake Forest (3 - 15)
15. Boston College (0 - 18)

Olympic Fan
02-27-2016, 02:17 PM
Georgia Tech's 76-71 win at BC Saturday afternoon had a huge impact on locking up seeds at the bottom of the ACC standings.

The loss means that Boston College is locked into the No. 14 seed (the Eagles COULD tie Wake at 2-16, but the Deacs have the tiebreaker, so BC is 14th seed)

It also means that Wake is locked into the No. 13 seed (the Deacs could tie NC State at 4-14, but State has the tiebreaker, so Wake is No. 13)

It also means that NC State is locked into the No. 12 seed (State could tie FSU at 6-10, but FSU has the tiebreaker so State is No. 12)

It doesn't quite clinch a bye for Georgia Tech .... but if FSU loses to Notre Dame this afternoon, then that would clinch at least 9th place for the Jackets and lock FSU into the No. 10 seed.

So we almost know the pairings for the first day of the ACC Tournament:

Game One (noon): No. 12 NC State vs. No. 13 Wake Forest
Game Two (2:30 p.m.): No. 14 Boston College vs. ?? (probably FSU, but that's not definite yet)

arnie
02-27-2016, 02:46 PM
Well I'm wrong as usual, but at least I stated I was pulling for Virginia.

Don't think you were wrong. It may be best for UVA to lose if our only objective is to avoid 5-seed. We could lose another game and win tie-breaker over UVA if in a tie for 4th with them. Of course we all agree, go Wahoos tonite.

CDu
02-27-2016, 02:52 PM
Georgia Tech's 76-71 win at BC Saturday afternoon had a huge impact on locking up seeds at the bottom of the ACC standings.

The loss means that Boston College is locked into the No. 14 seed (the Eagles COULD tie Wake at 2-16, but the Deacs have the tiebreaker, so BC is 14th seed)

It also means that Wake is locked into the No. 13 seed (the Deacs could tie NC State at 4-14, but State has the tiebreaker, so Wake is No. 13)

It also means that NC State is locked into the No. 12 seed (State could tie FSU at 6-10, but FSU has the tiebreaker so State is No. 12)

It doesn't quite clinch a bye for Georgia Tech ... but if FSU loses to Notre Dame this afternoon, then that would clinch at least 9th place for the Jackets and lock FSU into the No. 10 seed.

So we almost know the pairings for the first day of the ACC Tournament:

Game One (noon): No. 12 NC State vs. No. 13 Wake Forest
Game Two (2:30 p.m.): No. 14 Boston College vs. ?? (probably FSU, but that's not definite yet)

Minor correction, but an FSU loss would lock them into 11th (not 10th), and GT at least 10th (not 9th).

AIRFORCEDUKIE
02-27-2016, 02:56 PM
Theres been a lot of talk about Ga Tech getting a tournament bid. Thoughts? I think it would be great for the ACC and their program. Just don't know if they will actually pull it off.

devildeac
02-27-2016, 03:33 PM
Is there any way the former big east teams playing in miami today can both pick up losses? :rolleyes:

tbyers11
02-27-2016, 03:47 PM
Theres been a lot of talk about Ga Tech getting a tournament bid. Thoughts? I think it would be great for the ACC and their program. Just don't know if they will actually pull it off.

I don't think GaTech is getting a bid unless they win their last 2 games and win the ACC tourney. So basically win the tourney. Win their last 2 games gets them to 9-9. Their best nonconference wins are Arkansas and VCU. They have beaten UVA and ND

Maybe, just maybe, if they win their last 2 games (@Lousiville, home vs Pitt) and make it to the ACC final and beat 2 top teams in the quarters and semis. But with an RPI of 71 I really think they would have to win out to feel very confident

CDu
02-27-2016, 03:57 PM
I don't think GaTech is getting a bid unless they win their last 2 games and win the ACC tourney. So basically win the tourney. Win their last 2 games gets them to 9-9. Their best nonconference wins are Arkansas and VCU. They have beaten UVA and ND

Maybe, just maybe, if they win their last 2 games (@Lousiville, home vs Pitt) and make it to the ACC final and beat 2 top teams in the quarters and semis. But with an RPI of 71 I really think they would have to win out to feel very confident

Yeah, no chance for Tech to get an at large bid. Too many losses, not enough good wins.

Bad news for us right now in Coral Gables. Miami is going to beat Louisville. Realistically we needed Louisville to win and then lose to UVa. Now, Miami has to lose to Notre Dame. Also, from a tiebreaker seeding scenario, it would be better for that UM/ND game to knock a team down to 6 losses. This just hurt our positive scenarios.

DavidBenAkiva
02-27-2016, 04:10 PM
Miami just beat Louisville. The potential for a five-way tie atop the ACC is becoming more likely. Here's what has to happen:


UNC loses at Virginia, and loses at Duke
Miami loses at Notre Dame
Virginia wins out (vs. UNC and Louisville)
Notre Dame wins out (vs. Miami)
Duke wins out


It would still be a five-way tie if Louisville wins out, replacing Virginia.

It's crazy to think that one of UNC, Miami, Virginia, Notre Dame, or Duke would have to be the 5th seed in the ACC tournament. Anyone know what the seeding would be in this scenario?

CDu
02-27-2016, 04:12 PM
Miami just beat Louisville. The potential for a five-way tie atop the ACC is becoming more likely. Here's what has to happen:


UNC loses at Virginia, and loses at Duke
Miami loses at Notre Dame
Virginia wins out (vs. UNC and Louisville)
Notre Dame wins out (vs. Miami)
Duke wins out


It would still be a five-way tie if Louisville wins out, replacing Virginia.

It's crazy to think that one of UNC, Miami, Virginia, Notre Dame, or Duke would have to be the 5th seed in the ACC tournament. Anyone know what the seeding would be in this scenario?

UNC would be 5th in that scenario. And frankly, a 5-way tie got slightly less likely with that result. Louisville is more likely to lose to UVa than Miami is to Notre Dame.

Olympic Fan
02-27-2016, 05:05 PM
UNC would be 5th in that scenario. And frankly, a 5-way tie got slightly less likely with that result. Louisville is more likely to lose to UVa than Miami is to Notre Dame.

Not sure I agree ... you're forgetting that Miami has the widest home/road splits in the ACC.

The Canes are 9-0 in the ACC at home and have beaten Duke, Louisville, Virginia and Notre Dame at home.

On the road, they are 3-4 and have been extremely mediocre -- losing four lopsided games to Virginia, NC State, Clemson and (by 25 points) at UNC. They've beaten Georgia Tech, Boston College and FSU (on a tip-in at the buzzer). They are a substantially different team away from home.

At Notre Dame, they have to be a substantial underdog ...

(Note: The five-way tie DOES become a lot less likely if Notre Dame fails to rally against Florida State (they are down 16 at the half)

But if we take Notre Dame out of the five-way mix and make it a four-way tie between,. Duke, UNC, Virginia and Miami -- all at 13-5, it would help Duke. We would be 3-1 against the other three teams; Virginia would be 2-1, Miami would be 2-2, UNC would be 1-3 -- Duke would be the top seed in a four-way tie.

So Notre Dame losing at FSU helps us ...

CDu
02-27-2016, 05:14 PM
Not sure I agree ... you're forgetting that Miami has the widest home/road splits in the ACC.

The Canes are 9-0 in the ACC at home and have beaten Duke, Louisville, Virginia and Notre Dame at home.

On the road, they are 3-4 and have been extremely mediocre -- losing four lopsided games to Virginia, NC State, Clemson and (by 25 points) at UNC. They've beaten Georgia Tech, Boston College and FSU (on a tip-in at the buzzer). They are a substantially different team away from home.

At Notre Dame, they have to be a substantial underdog ...

(Note: The five-way tie DOES become a lot less likely if Notre Dame fails to rally against Florida State (they are down 16 at the half)

But if we take Notre Dame out of the five-way mix and make it a four-way tie between,. Duke, UNC, Virginia and Miami -- all at 13-5, it would help Duke. We would be 3-1 against the other three teams; Virginia would be 2-1, Miami would be 2-2, UNC would be 1-3 -- Duke would be the top seed in a four-way tie.

So Notre Dame losing at FSU helps us ...

Every Notre Dame and Miami loss helps us. We win tiebreakers with UVa and (if we win out) UNC. So Go Noles! And in a week, Go Hokies!

BandAlum83
02-27-2016, 05:53 PM
Wtf is wrong with Notre Dame? I realize that it's tough to win on the road in the ACC, but they are getting totally spanked @ FSU.

This is one of the most efficient offensive teams in the nation, yet they have scored only 51 with just over 2 minutes left.

I did pick FSU in this game and it helps us hugely, but what on earth? Just an off night?

CDu
02-27-2016, 05:59 PM
Not sure I agree ... you're forgetting that Miami has the widest home/road splits in the ACC.

The Canes are 9-0 in the ACC at home and have beaten Duke, Louisville, Virginia and Notre Dame at home.

On the road, they are 3-4 and have been extremely mediocre -- losing four lopsided games to Virginia, NC State, Clemson and (by 25 points) at UNC. They've beaten Georgia Tech, Boston College and FSU (on a tip-in at the buzzer). They are a substantially different team away from home.

At Notre Dame, they have to be a substantial underdog ...

(Note: The five-way tie DOES become a lot less likely if Notre Dame fails to rally against Florida State (they are down 16 at the half)

But if we take Notre Dame out of the five-way mix and make it a four-way tie between,. Duke, UNC, Virginia and Miami -- all at 13-5, it would help Duke. We would be 3-1 against the other three teams; Virginia would be 2-1, Miami would be 2-2, UNC would be 1-3 -- Duke would be the top seed in a four-way tie.

So Notre Dame losing at FSU helps us ...

And my point was not that Miami was likely to beat Notre Dame in South Bend. Just that UVa is so much better than ND that Louisville is even less likely to pull the upset on the road.

Doria
02-27-2016, 06:08 PM
Not only does FSU beating Notre Dame help us, I think it (may) indirectly helps us, too. If Notre Dame can't find motivation to beat Miami, coming off losses to GT and FSU, then I'm not sure what could possibly motivate them.

Granted, that is not very scientific. But I hope that it works out this way, at least!

BandAlum83
02-27-2016, 06:33 PM
Not only does FSU beating Notre Dame help us, I think it (may) indirectly helps us, too. If Notre Dame can't find motivation to beat Miami, coming off losses to GT and FSU, then I'm not sure what could possibly motivate them.

Granted, that is not very scientific. But I hope that it works out this way, at least!

I'm with you! That could help us. More importantly,

GO UVA, BEAT THE CHEATS!!!!!

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-27-2016, 06:34 PM
Everything breaking our way. If UVa beats UNC and ND knocks off Miami next week...

CDu
02-27-2016, 08:37 PM
UVa takes care of business. I would have preferred them be the ones we rely on to knock off the other 4-loss team next week, but hopefully Notre Dame or Va Tech can do it instead.

Of course, the most important thing is for us to win out. UVa's win tonight won't mean much if we lose any more games.

Doria
02-27-2016, 08:40 PM
Yeah, we still have to take care of our business, certainly, but it's one step closer on the things we can't control.

(Also, as with most people here, always nice to see Carolina go down.)

Congrats to our UVA friends here on the forums on a nice win!

Newton_14
02-27-2016, 08:46 PM
UVa takes care of business. I would have preferred them be the ones we rely on to knock off the other 4-loss team next week, but hopefully Notre Dame or Va Tech can do it instead.

Of course, the most important thing is for us to win out. UVa's win tonight won't mean much if we lose any more games.

Indeed they did my friend. Don't know who "timdawg" was but lol at that clown.

uncheat is a good but not great team. Every time they get a chance to get a signature win they wet the bed. And whither Marcus Paige?? University of Regression? And is he hands down the best 3 point shooter in the world when they are too far down for it to matter?

Ol huck running walkon level players in and out of the game until the bitter end was great comedy too.

And I suppose Grayson will get blamed for trippin Bryce Johnson on that FT rebound where he fell on his rear and let the ball slowly roll out of bounds....:rolleyes:

yeah I hatem.... will never hide that feeling.... where's tim "dawg" to give us some good ol insite?

Doria
02-27-2016, 08:53 PM
And whither Marcus Paige?? University of Regression? And is he hands down the best 3 point shooter in the world when they are too far down for it to matter?

Ol huck running walkon level players in and out of the game until the bitter end was great comedy too.

And I suppose Grayson will get blamed for trippin Bryce Johnson on that FT rebound where he fell on his rear and let the ball slowly roll out of bounds...:rolleyes:

Hilariously, I'd probably vote State's Maverick Rowan over Paige for most meaningless 3's in the last minutes of not-close losses. At least, he's made more in that category that I've seen than Paige has.

And I'm glad I wasn't the only one who had that thought when Johnson fell without a UVA player in sight (I'm actually not sure what happened; I turned away and when I turned back, he was on his rear, with the ball slowly and humorously bouncing out of bounds...).

Olympic Fan
02-27-2016, 09:45 PM
Hey, give Ol' Roy credit -- he used all his timeouts tonight!

Now if he could just figure out that Hicks should be starting over Meeks (he did it for the Miami game and it worked great ... he started Meeks against State and he had to get Hicks off the bench after State's first possession when they got four straight offensive rebounds ... then he started Meeks again against Virginia). Every coach and scout I've talked to thinks UNC is better when Meeks its out ... but Roy loves the guy (almost as Much as Wheat loves Britt).

It's pretty close to our own hands for the regular season title. The only help we need is for Notre Dame or VPI to beat Miami9 (both get the Canes at home).

Frankly, I'm more confident of that happening than of Duke winning out. If we do finish 3-0 and miss the title because Miami finishes up 2-0, then I'll be fairly content.

gumbomoop
02-28-2016, 12:37 AM
It's pretty close to our own hands for the regular season title. The only help we need is for Notre Dame or VPI to beat Miami9 (both get the Canes at home).

Frankly, I'm more confident of that happening than of Duke winning out. If we do finish 3-0 and miss the title because Miami finishes up 2-0, then I'll be fairly content.

I agree with your second paragraph here, as Duke has 2 tough games left.

But as to your first paragraph, I still think we also need UVa to beat UL next Saturday. Now, I think they will do so, but if UL and Duke both win out, Heels beat Syracuse, and Miami loses once, that means 4 teams finish 13-5: Duke, Miami, UL, and UNC. In this specific scenario -- 4 teams at 13-5, including UL rather than UVa -- according to my understanding of the tiebreaker rules, and a check of the seeding generator, too, Miami gets the 1-seed, Duke 2, UL ineligible, UNC 3, UVa 4.

Tiebreaker rules -- http://www.syracuse.com/acc/index.ssf/2016/02/acc_mens_basketball_tiebreaker_rules_and_procedure s_for_determining_tournament_s.html

Olympic Fan
02-28-2016, 01:15 AM
I agree with your second paragraph here, as Duke has 2 tough games left.

But as to your first paragraph, I still think we also need UVa to beat UL next Saturday. Now, I think they will do so, but if UL and Duke both win out, Heels beat Syracuse, and Miami loses once, that means 4 teams finish 13-5: Duke, Miami, UL, and UNC. In this specific scenario -- 4 teams at 13-5, including UL rather than UVa -- according to my understanding of the tiebreaker rules, and a check of the seeding generator, too, Miami gets the 1-seed, Duke 2, UL ineligible, UNC 3, UVa 4.

Tiebreaker rules -- http://www.syracuse.com/acc/index.ssf/2016/02/acc_mens_basketball_tiebreaker_rules_and_procedure s_for_determining_tournament_s.html

I know the tiebreaker rules, but who cares if we're the No. 1 or No. 2 (or even No. 3 or No. 4) seed? With such a balanced field, it has almost no impact.

The two important things to play for are (1) the ACC regular season title -- which we get if we win out and Miami loses one more and (2) the double bye -- which we get if we win out. Period.

So I repeat -- the only thing that matters if that (1) we win out and (2) Miami loses another game.

If we lose at Pitt, we can stop worrying about the regular season title and start floating scenarios to secure a double bye.

But I won't worry about that until (and if) we lose another game -- until then, my goal is winning a share of the ACC regular season title. Next week's Virginia-Louisville game has ZERO impact on that goal.

gumbomoop
02-28-2016, 02:05 AM
I know the tiebreaker rules, but who cares if we're the No. 1 or No. 2 (or even No. 3 or No. 4) seed? With such a balanced field, it has almost no impact.

The two important things to play for are (1) the ACC regular season title -- which we get if we win out and Miami loses one more and (2) the double bye -- which we get if we win out. Period.

So I repeat -- the only thing that matters if that (1) we win out and (2) Miami loses another game.

If we lose at Pitt, we can stop worrying about the regular season title and start floating scenarios to secure a double bye.

But I won't worry about that until (and if) we lose another game -- until then, my goal is winning a share of the ACC regular season title. Next week's Virginia-Louisville game has ZERO impact on that goal.

Because we have two threads going [This Week and Tiebreaker scenarios] that frequently discuss ACCT-seeding rather than specifically or only the regular season title, I did not pay careful attention to your distinction between winning a share of the regular season title and securing the top seed. My fault. Even you included some comments on seeding in your post #47 of this thread. I will assume that you decided that we were collectively mixing the two separate issues, or at any rate that one was the more important issue, and so in post #s 58 and 60 correctly insisted on the distinction. I repeat: I missed the distinction and acknowledge its importance.

I do care about getting a higher seed, particularly a 1 or 2 seed rather than the 4. But like everyone else I'm more concerned about winning out and securing the double-bye.

BandAlum83
02-28-2016, 02:09 AM
I know the tiebreaker rules, but who cares if we're the No. 1 or No. 2 (or even No. 3 or No. 4) seed? With such a balanced field, it has almost no impact.

The two important things to play for are (1) the ACC regular season title -- which we get if we win out and Miami loses one more and (2) the double bye -- which we get if we win out. Period.

So I repeat -- the only thing that matters if that (1) we win out and (2) Miami loses another game.

If we lose at Pitt, we can stop worrying about the regular season title and start floating scenarios to secure a double bye.

But I won't worry about that until (and if) we lose another game -- until then, my goal is winning a share of the ACC regular season title. Next week's Virginia-Louisville game has ZERO impact on that goal.


You are both correct. If Louisville beats UVA:
ACC Standings

1. Miami (FL) (13 - 5) Defeated Duke, Louisville, and North Carolina based on round-robin record.
2. Duke (13 - 5) Defeated Louisville and North Carolina and lost to Miami (FL) based on round-robin record.
(INELIGIBLE) 3. Louisville (13 - 5) Defeated North Carolina and lost to Miami (FL) and Duke based on round-robin record.
4. North Carolina (13 - 5) Lost to Miami (FL), Duke, and Louisville based on round-robin record.
5. Virginia (12 - 6) Defeated Notre Dame based on head-to-head record.
6. Notre Dame (12 - 6) Lost to Virginia based on head-to-head record.
7. Clemson (10 - 8)
8. Pittsburgh (9 - 9) Defeated Syracuse based on head-to-head record.
9. Syracuse (9 - 9) Lost to Pittsburgh based on head-to-head record.
10. Georgia Tech (8 - 10) Defeated Florida State based on head-to-head record.
11. Florida State (8 - 10) Lost to Georgia Tech based on head-to-head record.
12. Virginia Tech (7 - 11)
13. North Carolina State (5 - 13)
14. Wake Forest (3 - 15)
15. Boston College (0 - 18)

Interestingly, both scenarios end up the same with regards to the brackets. If Louisville beats UVA, we are in the same bracket as unc (2-3 seeds).

If uva wins, we are still with unc (1-4 seeds duke #1)

devildeac
02-28-2016, 08:08 AM
Saw in the Raleigh N&O this AM that miami suspended Ja'quan Newton who they quoted as "one of the best 6th men in the ACC." I don't follow other acc teams much at all (unless they're beating unc:)) so any thoughts about how much this hurts them?

CDu
02-28-2016, 09:08 AM
Saw in the Raleigh N&O this AM that miami suspended Ja'quan Newton who they quoted as "one of the best 6th men in the ACC." I don't follow other acc teams much at all (unless they're beating unc:)) so any thoughts about how much this hurts them?

It didn't cost them yesterday, as they beat Louisville in the first game of his suspension. But it leaves them with just one PG in Rodriguez. So if he is off or in foul trouble then they may struggle. And Newton absolutely should have been in the 6th man award discussion.

burns15
02-28-2016, 09:59 AM
You are both correct. If Louisville beats UVA:
ACC Standings

1. Miami (FL) (13 - 5) Defeated Duke, Louisville, and North Carolina based on round-robin record.
2. Duke (13 - 5) Defeated Louisville and North Carolina and lost to Miami (FL) based on round-robin record.
(INELIGIBLE) 3. Louisville (13 - 5) Defeated North Carolina and lost to Miami (FL) and Duke based on round-robin record.
4. North Carolina (13 - 5) Lost to Miami (FL), Duke, and Louisville based on round-robin record.
5. Virginia (12 - 6) Defeated Notre Dame based on head-to-head record.
6. Notre Dame (12 - 6) Lost to Virginia based on head-to-head record.
7. Clemson (10 - 8)
8. Pittsburgh (9 - 9) Defeated Syracuse based on head-to-head record.
9. Syracuse (9 - 9) Lost to Pittsburgh based on head-to-head record.
10. Georgia Tech (8 - 10) Defeated Florida State based on head-to-head record.
11. Florida State (8 - 10) Lost to Georgia Tech based on head-to-head record.
12. Virginia Tech (7 - 11)
13. North Carolina State (5 - 13)
14. Wake Forest (3 - 15)
15. Boston College (0 - 18)

Interestingly, both scenarios end up the same with regards to the brackets. If Louisville beats UVA, we are in the same bracket as unc (2-3 seeds).

If uva wins, we are still with unc (1-4 seeds duke #1)

You're right that Lousiville beating UVA has zero impact on Duke winning a share of the regular season title, but it does however have a giant impact on Duke getting the number one seed. For that to happen, Notre Dame, us, and UVA must win out... And Carolina had to win mid-week this week. The key is to have both UVA and UNC involved in the multiple way tie since we would 3-0 under them in that scenario, and 3-1 overall against the teams tied (since we lost in Miami). We would be 3-1, Miami 2-1, UNC 1-3, and UVA 1-2.

BandAlum83
02-28-2016, 11:30 AM
You're right that Lousiville beating UVA has zero impact on Duke winning a share of the regular season title, but it does however have a giant impact on Duke getting the number one seed. For that to happen, Notre Dame, us, and UVA must win out... And Carolina had to win mid-week this week. The key is to have both UVA and UNC involved in the multiple way tie since we would 3-0 under them in that scenario, and 3-1 overall against the teams tied (since we lost in Miami). We would be 3-1, Miami 2-1, UNC 1-3, and UVA 1-2.

I'm with Olympicfan on this one. Share of regular season title and a double bye and who cares what seed we get?

But first, let's keep winning!

OldPhiKap
02-28-2016, 11:33 AM
This may have been covered somewhere, but -- with Louisville not participating in the ACC tourney, does that mean that 1-5 get first round bye's?

gumbomoop
02-28-2016, 11:38 AM
This may have been covered somewhere, but -- with Louisville not participating in the ACC tourney, does that mean that 1-5 get first round bye's?

No, 5-seed gets only single bye. Here's bracket. Scroll down a bit.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_ACC_Men%27s_Basketball_Tournament

Actually, on second reading of your question, the answer is that seeds 1-10 all get first-round bye. But I think the spirit of your question is about the double-bye, which only 1-4 receive.

BandAlum83
02-28-2016, 11:46 AM
No, 5-seed gets only single bye. Here's bracket. Scroll down a bit.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_ACC_Men%27s_Basketball_Tournament

Actually, on second reading of your question, the answer is that seeds 1-10 all get first-round bye. But I think the spirit of your question is about the double-bye, which only 1-4 receive.

If, for the purposes of the double bye determination, Louisville is part of the top 4, #5 will get the double bye.

devildeac
02-28-2016, 11:53 AM
This may have been covered somewhere, but -- with Louisville not participating in the ACC tourney, does that mean that 1-5 get first round bye's?

Well, no matter where l'ville finishes in the standings, they still get the double bye, as in good-bye from the ACCT and good-bye from the NCAAT :o .

gumbomoop
02-28-2016, 12:37 PM
If, for the purposes of the double bye determination, Louisville is part of the top 4, #5 will get the double bye.

Yes, you're right, and that may well have been the question OPK was asking, and I just didn't get it. At any rate, with UL ineligible, all positions after what would have been their seeding move up one, giving the tournament a total of 14 teams. So, in the scenario you note and which OPK might have been referring to, I'd say the 5-seed becomes the 4-seed, and therefore gets the double-bye. It's semantics, I suppose, but worth clarifying.

Bob Green
02-28-2016, 01:46 PM
Well, no matter where l'ville finishes in the standings, they still get the double bye, as in good-bye from the ACCT and good-bye from the NCAAT :o .

Good one! Unfortunately...


You must spread some Comments around before commenting on devildeac again.

NSDukeFan
02-28-2016, 01:58 PM
Not only does FSU beating Notre Dame help us, I think it (may) indirectly helps us, too. If Notre Dame can't find motivation to beat Miami, coming off losses to GT and FSU, then I'm not sure what could possibly motivate them.

Granted, that is not very scientific. But I hope that it works out this way, at least!

I feel like this is one of the great feel good stories of the year. After it appeared that Xavier Rathan-Mayes may have had a career ending injury after he was violently slammed to the floor in an incredibly dangerous play at the end of the Duke game, FSU rallied around this adversity and in the greatest sporting miracle since the one on Ice, XRM pulled a Willis Reed and entered the Notre Dame game. He may never be the same, but the courage it took for him to go back on the court required not just an amazing physical recovery, but incredible mental and emotional strength to go back to where he suffered such a devastating flying leg chop. There couldn't have been a dry eye in the building.

CDu
02-28-2016, 03:24 PM
If things continue as they are currently going today, we are going to need to cheer for Miami against Notre Dame and Louisville against UVa.

CDu
02-28-2016, 04:03 PM
Time to cheer for the Canes to beat the Irish and Louisville to beat UVa. We now realistically can only get the 3 seed.

Olympic Fan
02-28-2016, 07:12 PM
If things continue as they are currently going today, we are going to need to cheer for Miami against Notre Dame and Louisville against UVa.

Fair enough. With the Pitt loss, we can quit thinking about the regular season title and focus on the double bye.

As it now stands:

1. Miami 12-4
UNC 12-4
3. Virginia 11-5
Louisville 11-5
5. Duke 10-6
Notre Dame 10-6

And right behind us are Clemson, Syracuse and Pitt -- all at 9-7.

We are in a very precarious position, in that Notre Dame and the three teams right behind us all have the tiebreaker advantage over us -- we are 0-1 against all of them.

So, yes, now we pull for Notre Dame to lose to Miami or NC State ... We do want Clemson or Louisville to beat Virginia (the one team we beat in a head-to-head tiebreaker). I think the teams behind us lose again -- Syracuse has games at UNC and at FSU ... Pitt is at VPI and at Georgia Tech ... Clemson might be the wild card -- they have Virginia at home and at BC.

It's important for Duke to finish 2-0 to get to 12-6. At 11-7, it's going to be tough (not quite impossible) to avoid playing on Wednesday.



But even if we do finish 12-6, we need some help to earn the double-bye.

CDu
02-29-2016, 09:10 AM
We are in a very precarious position, in that Notre Dame and the three teams right behind us all have the tiebreaker advantage over us -- we are 0-1 against all of them.

So, yes, now we pull for Notre Dame to lose to Miami or NC State ... We do want Clemson or Louisville to beat Virginia (the one team we beat in a head-to-head tiebreaker). I think the teams behind us lose again -- Syracuse has games at UNC and at FSU ... Pitt is at VPI and at Georgia Tech ... Clemson might be the wild card -- they have Virginia at home and at BC.

Yeah, yesterday's loss was just about the worst-case scenario for us. As you said, we lose the tiebreaker against all of the teams even with or behind us, and we kept the team with the easiest schedule behind us (Pitt) within striking distance. I'd expect Syracuse to lose tonight, bumping them realistically out of threat. Same for Clemson vs UVa tomorrow night. I don't share your desire for Clemson to beat UVa, because that puts us at risk of falling even further down the standings if we lose to UNC-CH. I want Louisville to beat UVa and Clemson to lose to UVa, which would (similar to Syracuse losing to UNC-CH) clear away one of our threats while also aiding our window to getting a top-4 seed.

Also, we probably want to cheer for the Tech schools to win a home game against Pitt. Basically, any scenario that pushes the 7-loss teams to 8 losses is good for us. Heck, gotta cheer for State to upset Notre Dame, too. If they could drop to 8 losses, we're in very good shape.

There is a scenario in which we can get to the 4 seed with 7 losses, but it's pretty unlikely: ND has to lose out, and Pitt has to get upset by one of the Tech schools. Then, we'd likely be okay, as I expect Clemson and Syracuse to each lose again (in Cuse's case, maybe twice).

If we win out, we could finish anywhere from first (very unlikely - would require both Miami and UNC-CH to lose out AND UVa to win out AND Notre Dame to lose to NC State) to fifth (very possible - would just require Notre Dame to win out). Finishing third or fourth would probably be the plurality outcomes if we win out.