Exercise in tiebreaker scenarios (6 way tie for first in the ACC)

[dragoneye776]

There is actually a reasonable scenario where there is a 6 way tie for the ACC regular season title

5 loss Duke wins out, including beating UNC (13-5)
3 loss UNC loses to UVA and Duke (13-5)

4 loss Miami loses to UVA, beats Louisville, and beats Notre Dame (13-5)
4 loss Louisville loses to Miami, beats UVA (13-5)
4 loss UVA beats Miami, beats UNC, loses to Louisville (13-5)
4 loss Notre Dame loses Miami (13-5)

Any tiebreaker geeks want to figure this one out?

[uh_no]

There is actually a reasonable scenario where there is a 6 way tie for the ACC regular season title

5 loss Duke wins out, including beating UNC (13-5)
3 loss UNC loses to UVA and Duke (13-5)

4 loss Miami loses to UVA, beats Louisville, and beats Notre Dame (13-5)
4 loss Louisville loses to Miami, beats UVA (13-5)
4 loss UVA beats Miami, beats UNC, loses to Louisville (13-5)
4 loss Notre Dame loses Miami (13-5)

Any tiebreaker geeks want to figure this one out?

1) all 6 are co-champions. the ACC doesn't break ties for the regular season title
2) http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?37416-ACC-Regular-Season-Title-Thread
3) the tiebreaker should just be best record in games among tied teams.

[Olympic Fan]

There is actually a reasonable scenario where there is a 6 way tie for the ACC regular season title

5 loss Duke wins out, including beating UNC (13-5)
3 loss UNC loses to UVA and Duke (13-5)

4 loss Miami loses to UVA, beats Louisville, and beats Notre Dame (13-5)
4 loss Louisville loses to Miami, beats UVA (13-5)
4 loss UVA beats Miami, beats UNC, loses to Louisville (13-5)
4 loss Notre Dame loses Miami (13-5)

Any tiebreaker geeks want to figure this one out?

Fascinating -- if very unlikely scenario.

But if this happens, the seedings would be:

1. Virginia (5-2 vs. the other five teams in the tie)
2. Duke (4-3 vs. the other five teams)
3. Miami (3-3)
4. Notre Dame (3-3, but 0-2 head to head to Miami)
5. North Carolina (1-5)

Having said that, I think you have to make some tough assumptions to get to the six-way tie.

For instance, I think it's extremely unlikely that Miami beats Notre Dame in South Bend.

But you need this to happen, because to get to 13-5 Notre Dame has to lose again. We'll see how they do against Georgia Tech tonight in Atlanta -- then they have Wake (without Thomas) on the road and a tough one at FSU. If they get through that three-game road trip unbeaten, I like their chances to beat NC State and Miami at home to finish 13-5.

Everybody else has a bunch of tough games -- I could easily see UNC losing at Virginia and at Duke ... or Virginia at Miami (and home games with UNC and Louisville aren't locks) ... I could see Duke going unbeaten down the stretch, but next Sunday's game at Pitt and the finale game with UNC are both tough.

The ACC has had a four-way tie for first before ... that's certainly possible again. We could see five or as you laid out, maybe six.

[dragoneye776]

Fascinating -- if very unlikely scenario.

But if this happens, the seedings would be:

1. Virginia (5-2 vs. the other five teams in the tie)
2. Duke (4-3 vs. the other five teams)
3. Miami (3-3)
4. Notre Dame (3-3, but 0-2 head to head to Miami)
5. North Carolina (1-5)

Having said that, I think you have to make some tough assumptions to get to the six-way tie.

For instance, I think it's extremely unlikely that Miami beats Notre Dame in South Bend.

But you need this to happen, because to get to 13-5 Notre Dame has to lose again. We'll see how they do against Georgia Tech tonight in Atlanta -- then they have Wake (without Thomas) on the road and a tough one at FSU. If they get through that three-game road trip unbeaten, I like their chances to beat NC State and Miami at home to finish 13-5.

Everybody else has a bunch of tough games -- I could easily see UNC losing at Virginia and at Duke ... or Virginia at Miami (and home games with UNC and Louisville aren't locks) ... I could see Duke going unbeaten down the stretch, but next Sunday's game at Pitt and the finale game with UNC are both tough.

The ACC has had a four-way tie for first before ... that's certainly possible again. We could see five or as you laid out, maybe six.

Minor correction, in my scenario, I think Miami is 4-3 and don't forget Louisville at 3-4. I don't see Miami beating Notre Dame either, but they are the only ranked team Notre Dame still has on their schedule. If Notre Dame beats Miami, I would even say Notre Dame is the favorite to win the ACC.

Overall list
Virginia would be 5-2
Miami would be 4-3
Duke would be 4-3
Notre Dame would be 3-3
Louisville would be 3-4
UNC would be 1-5 (they are really bad against top ACC teams)

[MarkD83]

With the ND loss to GT there is a very plausible 5 way tie for first.

Here are the 6 critical games between the top 6 teams.

22-Feb UVA@MIA
27-Feb Louis@Mia
27-Feb UNC@UVA
2-Mar Mia@ND
5-Mar Louis@UVA
5-Mar UNC@Duke

If the home team wins each game then the final standings would have: UNC, Miami, UVA, ND and Duke all at 13-5.

UNC would be 1-4 against the other 4; Miami would be 3-3 and UVA, ND and Duke all 3-2. These three would also be 1-1 against each other.

Louisville would end up at 12-6.

[Olympic Fan]

With the ND loss to GT there is a very plausible 5 way tie for first.

Here are the 6 critical games between the top 6 teams.

22-Feb UVA@MIA
27-Feb Louis@Mia
27-Feb UNC@UVA
2-Mar Mia@ND
5-Mar Louis@UVA
5-Mar UNC@Duke

If the home team wins each game then the final standings would have: UNC, Miami, UVA, ND and Duke all at 13-5.

UNC would be 1-4 against the other 4; Miami would be 3-3 and UVA, ND and Duke all 3-2. These three would also be 1-1 against each other.

Louisville would end up at 12-6.

yes ... this is a much more likely scenario -- although the problem could be losses to teams not in the top 5-6 (such as Notre Dame's loss to Georgia Tech Saturday night).

I'd hate to predict any of those, but Duke at Pitt, UNC at NC State, Notre Dame at FSU, Miami at Va Tech, Virginia at Clemson ... all are games that could trip the top teams.

If, however, we get the five-way tie you suggest, I THINK the seedings would be:

1. Virginia
2. Notre Dame

This is really hard to determine and I'm not sure I'm right ... both are 13-5 overall and 3-2 against the five teams tied at 13-5. As noted, Duke is also 13-5 and 3-2 against the top five. And all three are 1-1 against each other. I think the next step is to go to the highest seeded team outside the tie and check records against that team. That would be fourth-seeded Miami. Duke is 0-1 against Miami, while Virginia and Notre Dame would both be 1-1.

That drops Duke to the No. 3 seed.

That leaves Virginia and Notre Dame tied for first. NOW, I think you look at head-t-head between those two teams and Virginia is 1-0 vs. Notre Dame, so I THINK that makes Virginia the No. 1 seed.

Pretty certain Duke is the No. 3 seed in that scenario. And I am almost certain:

4. Miami
5. UNC
6. Louisville

after that, I don't know, except I'd bet everything I own that Boston College ends up as the No. 14 seed.

But as I said, there are still a lot of variables and a five-team tie -- while more likely that that six team tie proposed earlier -- is still a long shot.

[gofurman]

I would LOVE to be a top 4 seed after the thin roster and injuries this year. That would really be an accomplishment. In event of tie (w UVA ?) at, say, 12-6 in ACC its straight head-to-head that matters, right?

So if both UVA and Duke are 12-6 then Duke wins by virtue of that classic win? But Duke loses all tiebreakers w Miami and Notre Dame since they both beat us.. is that all correct?

(FYI - kinda cool there is a secondary level of bye even at the 5 and 6 seed as you get a tired team on day two though you don't get a double bye)

[Olympic Fan]

I would LOVE to be a top 4 seed after the thin roster and injuries this year. That would really be an accomplishment. In event of tie (w UVA ?) at, say, 12-6 in ACC its straight head-to-head that matters, right?

So if both UVA and Duke are 12-6 then Duke wins by virtue of that classic win? But Duke loses all tiebreakers w Miami and Notre Dame since they both beat us.. is that all correct?

(FYI - kinda cool there is a secondary level of bye even at the 5 and 6 seed as you get a tired team on day two though you don't get a double bye)

If it's a two-way tie, then it's a straight-up head-to-head tiebreaker. If more than two teams are tied for any spot, then its the combined head-to-head of every team that's tied. If there is still a tie, you go to the top of the league and work your way down -- the team with a best record against the best team wins that stage of the tiebeaker. Just one note -- if, in that situation, one team is 1-0 and the other is 2-0 against some team, that's the same record (same with 0-1 and 0-2). But 1-0 beats 1-1.

FWIW, Miami's win Monday night keeps alive the chance for a five-way tie for the regular season title
-- with five teams at 13-5. Duke, Notre Dame and now Virginia have to win out to make that happen. Notre Dame would give Miami its fifth loss in South Bend, while Virginia (in C'ville) and Duke (uin Durham) would give UNC losses No. 4 and No. 5. It's not that farfetched.

I'm kind of pulling for this scenario, although I wouldn't be heartbroken if NC State beats UNC Tuesday night to spoil the five-way possibility.

[devildeac]

If it's a two-way tie, then it's a straight-up head-to-head tiebreaker. If more than two teams are tied for any spot, then its the combined head-to-head of every team that's tied. If there is still a tie, you go to the top of the league and work your way down -- the team with a best record against the best team wins that stage of the tiebeaker. Just one note -- if, in that situation, one team is 1-0 and the other is 2-0 against some team, that's the same record (same with 0-1 and 0-2). But 1-0 beats 1-1.

FWIW, Miami's win Monday night keeps alive the chance for a five-way tie for the regular season title
-- with five teams at 13-5. Duke, Notre Dame and now Virginia have to win out to make that happen. Notre Dame would give Miami its fifth loss in South Bend, while Virginia (in C'ville) and Duke (uin Durham) would give UNC losses No. 4 and No. 5. It's not that farfetched.

I'm kind of pulling for this scenario, although I wouldn't be heartbroken if NC State beats unc Tuesday night to spoil the five-way possibility.

I would like a sampler from whatever brewery/distillery/soda fountain you were visiting tonight :rolleyes: .

[Olympic Fan]

I would like a sampler from whatever brewery/distillery/soda fountain you were visiting tonight :rolleyes: .

I wouldn't bet on State ... BUT this is a State team that hammered Miami in Raleigh, beat a Clemson team that beat Duke (and did it on a night when Cat Barber scored one field goal) and went to Pitt and beat them by 17.

NC State has turned in some stinkers and has lost a lot of competitive games (including their visit to UNC last month), but they are still capable of a strong effort. UNC can be great when everything is going their way, but they are hardly invincible -- just ask Boston College which only lost by 3 to the Cheats on a missed 3-pointer at the buzzer.

Again, I'm not predicting it, but I wouldn't discount the possibilities.

[brevity]

I wouldn't bet on State ... BUT this is a State team that hammered Miami in Raleigh, beat a Clemson team that beat Duke (and did it on a night when Cat Barber scored one field goal) and went to Pitt and beat them by 17.

NC State has turned in some stinkers and has lost a lot of competitive games (including their visit to UNC last month), but they are still capable of a strong effort. UNC can be great when everything is going their way, but they are hardly invincible -- just ask Boston College which only lost by 3 to the Cheats on a missed 3-pointer at the buzzer.

Again, I'm not predicting it, but I wouldn't discount the possibilities.

I would.

Duke always WANTS State to beat Carolina, of course, and sometimes State does. But when Duke NEEDS State to win, State always disappoints.

I feel like I hear the "maybe State can put it together because Carolina looks vulnerable" argument every year, and I am reminded of one definition of insanity. State-Carolina usually ends up being less competitive than it should. Whatever deficiency we see in Carolina right now -- poor outside shooting, out of sync play, lack of killer instinct -- gets fixed in the State game.

[hallcity]

What I want to know is how games against Louisville figure in if there's a multiteam tie. If Duke, Louisville, Miami and Notre Dame are tied for 1st, the ACC decides seedings based upon each team's record against the other teams they're tied with but do the games against Louisville count when they're tied? I would think not but do we know?

[devildeac]

What I want to know is how games against Louisville figure in if there's a multiteam tie. If Duke, Louisville, Miami and Notre Dame are tied for 1st, the ACC decides seedings based upon each team's record against the other teams they're tied with but do the games against Louisville count when they're tied? I would think not but do we know?

And would our loss to 'ville be considered a decision, pinfall or submission? :mad:

[94duke]

What I want to know is how games against Louisville figure in if there's a multiteam tie. If Duke, Louisville, Miami and Notre Dame are tied for 1st, the ACC decides seedings based upon each team's record against the other teams they're tied with but do the games against Louisville count when they're tied? I would think not but do we know?

Why wouldn't it count? We all played the games. I would think the games would count, and Louisville would not be considered for a one seed.

[gumbomoop]

I'm just as interested in a possible Duke involvement in some 12-6 scenarios for ACCT seeding.

With, say, Clemson, Miami, or ND, all of whom have the one-v-one tiebreaker over Duke; and in the several multi-team 12-6 scenarios, I think we'd get a lower seed.
Or with UVa, over whom we hold the one-v-one tiebreaker, but whom I would prefer to avoid in the 4-5 matchup on ACCT Thurs.

I'll hope GT wins at home tonight over Clemson.

[Olympic Fan]

I would.

Duke always WANTS State to beat Carolina, of course, and sometimes State does. But when Duke NEEDS State to win, State always disappoints.

I feel like I hear the "maybe State can put it together because Carolina looks vulnerable" argument every year, and I am reminded of one definition of insanity. State-Carolina usually ends up being less competitive than it should. Whatever deficiency we see in Carolina right now -- poor outside shooting, out of sync play, lack of killer instinct -- gets fixed in the State game.

In the first place, we don't NEED NC State to beat UNC. We need Virginia and Duke to beat UNC. We just WANT NC State to beat UNC (heck, I want -- but don't expect -- Syracuse to beat the Cheats in Chapel Hill). So by you're very argument, "sometimes" NC State does beat UNC when we want it (and don't we always want it?)

Just one year ago at about this point in the season (Feb. 24 to be exact), N.C. State went to Chapel Hill and basically dominated UNC. And earlier this year, NC State -- which was really struggling at the time (four straight losses) -- went to Chapel Hill and played them tough -- it was tied at the half and State was within six points with just over four minutes to play.

Is it farfetched to think a State team playing better at this point in the season and playing at home has a reasonable chance? FWIW, Pomeroy gives State 32 percent chance tonight -- that's better than he gave Duke at Chapel Hill. I think in chance in three sounds about right to me.

But even if the Pack doesn't pull it off, I'm still optimistic that games at Virginia and at Duke will drag the Heels into the multi-team first-place tie.

[CDu]

In the first place, we don't NEED NC State to beat UNC. We need Virginia and Duke to beat UNC. We just WANT NC State to beat UNC (heck, I want -- but don't expect -- Syracuse to beat the Cheats in Chapel Hill). So by you're very argument, "sometimes" NC State does beat UNC when we want it (and don't we always want it?)

Just one year ago at about this point in the season (Feb. 24 to be exact), N.C. State went to Chapel Hill and basically dominated UNC. And earlier this year, NC State -- which was really struggling at the time (four straight losses) -- went to Chapel Hill and played them tough -- it was tied at the half and State was within six points with just over four minutes to play.

Is it farfetched to think a State team playing better at this point in the season and playing at home has a reasonable chance? FWIW, Pomeroy gives State 32 percent chance tonight -- that's better than he gave Duke at Chapel Hill. I think in chance in three sounds about right to me.

But even if the Pack doesn't pull it off, I'm still optimistic that games at Virginia and at Duke will drag the Heels into the multi-team first-place tie.

Yeah, if we win out and UVa beats UNC, I'm all but certain we'll share the ACC regular season title. I don't think either Louisville or Miami are good enough on the road to steer clear of a loss in their remaining games (well, one will lose regardless). So we just have to cheer for UVa against UNC and cheer for our guys as usual. The rest should take care of itself.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

I need late games on Thursday so either the 7 or 930 game because Driving up to DC from South Florida is gonna take 14 hours or more cause its a Road Trip and I want to enjoy it. So whatever scenario gets us in one of those two games is best for me.

[MarkD83]

Yeah, if we win out and UVa beats UNC, I'm all but certain we'll share the ACC regular season title. I don't think either Louisville or Miami are good enough on the road to steer clear of a loss in their remaining games (well, one will lose regardless). So we just have to cheer for UVa against UNC and cheer for our guys as usual. The rest should take care of itself.

Assuming the top 6 teams beat the teams not in the top 6 (eg Duke beats FSU; UNC beats NCState; etc). There are then 5 games between the top 6 teams to decide who wins/shares the championship.

27-Feb Louis@Mia
27-Feb UNC@UVA
2-Mar Mia@ND
5-Mar Louis@UVA
5-Mar UNC@Duke

If all the home teams win Duke gets a piece of the ACC title.

If that is not the case then:
UVA and Duke must beat UNC and
Miami can not win twice nor can Louisville.

Miami or Louisville will of course lose on 27-Feb. This means the winner of that game must lose the other game that is left (Mia@ND or Louis@UVA). My guess is that Louisville losing to UVA is a better beat than Mia losing at ND.

[CDu]

Assuming the top 6 teams beat the teams not in the top 6 (eg Duke beats FSU; UNC beats NCState; etc). There are then 5 games between the top 6 teams to decide who wins/shares the championship.

27-Feb Louis@Mia
27-Feb UNC@UVA
2-Mar Mia@ND
5-Mar Louis@UVA
5-Mar UNC@Duke

If all the home teams win Duke gets a piece of the ACC title.

If that is not the case then:
UVA and Duke must beat UNC and
Miami can not win twice nor can Louisville.

Miami or Louisville will of course lose on 27-Feb. This means the winner of that game must lose the other game that is left (Mia@ND or Louis@UVA). My guess is that Louisville losing to UVA is a better beat than Mia losing at ND.

Miami is pretty bad on the road. Them losing at Notre Dame should probably be the expected outcome. But, yes: UVa is probably even more likely to win their home game against Louisville than Notre Dame is to beat Miami.

[BandAlum83]

WTH? This is on the ESPN Carolina page:


It was a big week for the Tar Heels with wins over Duke and Miami. But if in-state opponent NC State is taken lightly, UNC might be heading into the showdown with Virginia with a loss. Power Rankings

Pretty shoddy...

Link:http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/153/north-carolina-tar-heels

[devildeac]

WTH? This is on the ESPN Carolina page:


It was a big week for the Tar Heels with wins over Duke and Miami. But if in-state opponent NC State is taken lightly, UNC might be heading into the showdown with Virginia with a loss. Power Rankings

Pretty shoddy...

Link:http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/153/north-carolina-tar-heels

Maybe they'll hang a banner. On a technicality, of course :rolleyes: .

[luburch]

This should certainly be helpful: http://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=mbb

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

This should certainly be helpful: http://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=mbb

that is awesome

[throatybeard]

This is complicated enough to make me not care where we finish in the top 6.

Despite the ACCT format, somehow.

[gumbomoop]

I'd prefer to play 3 of Clemson, 'Cuse, ND, and Miami, starting Thursday. Revenge factor, see if we could do better this time. Wouldn't mind playing my second favorite team, Hoos, on Sat. Strongly prefer not to be 5-seed to UVa's 4, however.

I'd be ok with BC, Wake on Thurs-Fri ......

[BandAlum83]

This should certainly be helpful: http://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=mbb

This is how my generator came out:

1. Duke (13 - 5) Defeated Miami (FL) and North Carolina based on round-robin record.
2. Miami (FL) (13 - 5) Defeated North Carolina and lost to Duke based on round-robin record.
3. North Carolina (13 - 5) Lost to Duke and Miami (FL) based on round-robin record.
4. Virginia (12 - 6) Defeated Notre Dame and Louisville based on round-robin record.
5. Notre Dame (12 - 6) Defeated Louisville and lost to Virginia based on round-robin record.
(INELIGIBLE) 6. Louisville (12 - 6) Lost to Virginia and Notre Dame based on round-robin record.
7. Clemson (11 - 7)
8. Syracuse (10 - 8)
9. Pittsburgh (9 - 9)
10. Georgia Tech (8 - 10)
11. Virginia Tech (7 - 11) Defeated Florida State based on head-to-head record.
12. Florida State (7 - 11) Lost to Virginia Tech based on head-to-head record.
13. North Carolina State (5 - 13)
14. Wake Forest (3 - 15)
15. Boston College (0 - 18)

I picked all the favorite to win with two exceptions (only one that affects the top six)

Virginia losses at Clemson in a let down game after beating UNC at home.

Keys as I see it to the end of the season are Virginia an Duke both beating UNC.

[jmck214]

I need late games on Thursday so either the 7 or 930 game because Driving up to DC from South Florida is gonna take 14 hours or more cause its a Road Trip and I want to enjoy it. So whatever scenario gets us in one of those two games is best for me.

6 vs 3 game will be at 930 and the 7 vs 2 game will be at 7.

[Olympic Fan]

This is how my generator came out:

1. Duke (13 - 5) Defeated Miami (FL) and North Carolina based on round-robin record.
2. Miami (FL) (13 - 5) Defeated North Carolina and lost to Duke based on round-robin record.
3. North Carolina (13 - 5) Lost to Duke and Miami (FL) based on round-robin record.
4. Virginia (12 - 6) Defeated Notre Dame and Louisville based on round-robin record.
5. Notre Dame (12 - 6) Defeated Louisville and lost to Virginia based on round-robin record.
(INELIGIBLE) 6. Louisville (12 - 6) Lost to Virginia and Notre Dame based on round-robin record.
7. Clemson (11 - 7)
8. Syracuse (10 - 8)
9. Pittsburgh (9 - 9)
10. Georgia Tech (8 - 10)
11. Virginia Tech (7 - 11) Defeated Florida State based on head-to-head record.
12. Florida State (7 - 11) Lost to Virginia Tech based on head-to-head record.
13. North Carolina State (5 - 13)
14. Wake Forest (3 - 15)
15. Boston College (0 - 18)

I picked all the favorite to win with two exceptions (only one that affects the top six)Virginia losses at Clemson in a let down game after beating UNC at home.

Keys as I see it to the end of the season are Virginia an Duke both beating UNC.

So how did you get Notre Dame (favored in its last three games) at 12-6? If the favorites win, then shouldn't they be 13-5?

[BandAlum83]

So how did you get Notre Dame (favored in its last three games) at 12-6? If the favorites win, then shouldn't they be 13-5?

Excellent question, sir. I was mistaken, I actually made 3 changes:

The aforementioned Virginia loss in a letdown game
Notre Dame loss on the Road at Fla State
Syracuse victory over Florida State in a hard fought game with bubble implications.

If Notre Dame doesn't lose that game, we end up with four regular season co-champions and the #3 seed:

1. Notre Dame (13 - 5) Defeated Duke, Miami (FL), and North Carolina based on round-robin record.
2. Miami (FL) (13 - 5) With Duke, defeated North Carolina and lost to Notre Dame based on round-robin record. Defeated Duke based on record against #8 teams.
3. Duke (13 - 5) With Miami (FL), defeated North Carolina and lost to Notre Dame based on round-robin record. Lost to Miami (FL) based on record against #8 teams.
4. North Carolina (13 - 5) Lost to Notre Dame, Duke, and Miami (FL) based on round-robin record.
5. Virginia (12 - 6) Defeated Louisville based on head-to-head record.
(INELIGIBLE) 6. Louisville (12 - 6) Lost to Virginia based on head-to-head record.

That calculator is fun. Everyone should try it!

[Neals384]

This should certainly be helpful: http://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=mbb

That tool is fun...depending on how you predict the games. I was able to construct a seven-way tie for the conference tournament two seed, but it's a nightmare for Duke. Louisville 13-5, 1 seed Carolina 12-6, then a seven way tie for the 2 seed at 11-7 including Duke, Syr, ND, Virginia, Pitt, Miami, Clemson. Duke loses all the tie breakers and gets the 8 seed, yikes.

[BandAlum83]

That tool is fun...depending on how you predict the games. I was able to construct a seven-way tie for the conference tournament two seed, but it's a nightmare for Duke. Louisville 13-5, 1 seed Carolina 12-6, then a seven way tie for the 2 seed at 11-7 including Duke, Syr, ND, Virginia, Pitt, Miami, Clemson. Duke loses all the tie breakers and gets the 8 seed, yikes.

Jeepers!! For that to happen, we'd have to lose to UNC and Pitt, huh?

[gumbomoop]

FSU just did the top tier teams a big favor by beating ND, easily.

So, if I understand correctly that UL's results do count for tiebreaking purposes, here are two 13-5 scenarios, differing depending on winner of next Saturday's UL @ UVa.

1 -- involving Duke, UNC, Miami, and UL, the tiebreakers produce:

Miami 2-1, 1-seed
Duke 3-2, 2-seed
UL 2-2, ineligible
UNC 1-3, 3-seed

2 -- involving Duke, UNC, Miami, and UVa, the tiebreakers produce:

Duke 3-1, 1-seed
UVa 2-2, 2- or 3-seed, not sure
Miami 2-2, 2- or 3-seed, not sure
UNC 1-3, 4-seed

If Duke wins out, we could still be a 3-seed, if UNC and Miami win some difficult road games and get to 14-4 each.

Tiebreaker rules -- http://www.syracuse.com/acc/index.ssf/2016/02/acc_mens_basketball_tiebreaker_rules_and_procedure s_for_determining_tournament_s.html

[BandAlum83]

Thanks to the ND loss, we now control our own destiny with regard to the double bye.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Down goes UNC

[CDu]

Down goes UNC

We now can get the 2 seed by winning out, and if Miami loses we can get the 1 seed.

[wgl1228]

Am I wrong or do we need to win out and miami lose both games to win ACC or tie? Doesn't Miami win the tie breaker if they only lose one of those?

[ChillinDuke]

UVA played great. Brogdon had one heck of a first half. Paige did a better job on him after halftime. Good game.

So things are even tighter now at the top. If we beat Pitt, were really in the mix.

- Chillin

[CDu]

Am I wrong or do we need to win out and miami lose both games to win ACC or tie? Doesn't Miami win the tie breaker if they only lose one of those?
The idea is that there would be a 3- or 4-way tie at 13-5, and we would win that tiebreaker thanks to our sweep of UNC. If it is a 2-team tie, we would lose on head-to-head loss to Miami.

[Doria]

Am I wrong or do we need to win out and miami lose both games to win ACC or tie? Doesn't Miami win the tie breaker if they only lose one of those?

The ACC recognizes all co-winners of the regular season as "regular season champion." So we can tie with Miami and still get a piece of the regular season title, if we win our remaining games (and all the other conditions apply).

The seeding is for ACCT purposes. (At least, this is how I understand it. If I'm wrong, I'm sure someone will correct me.)

[gumbomoop]

Am I wrong or do we need to win out and miami lose both games to win ACC or tie? Doesn't Miami win the tie breaker if they only lose one of those?

See tiebreaker scenarios for Duke and others at 13-5 in post #33 above. Seems highly unlikely that only Duke and Miami will finish 13-5, but in that event Miami has the tiebreaker over Duke.

[BandAlum83]

Am I wrong or do we need to win out and miami lose both games to win ACC or tie? Doesn't Miami win the tie breaker?

No, check out the thread above.

We need Miami to lose only one game. They will be underdogs at ND on 3/2. I hope ND plays better than they did today!!

The tie breakers look at record against the other teams we would be deadlocked with. We would get #1 seed against other 5 loss teams. There would be regular season co-champions for all those tied at the top.

So the keys for us: Win out, ND beat Miami! We are #1 seed and co champs!

[gumbomoop]

We need Miami to lose only one game.... So the keys for us: Win out, ND beat Miami! We are #1 seed and co champs!

If I figured the multi-team 13-5 scenarios correctly (post # 33), if Miami loses only to ND, that alone guarantees a 13-5 Duke no worse than 2-seed, but not necessarily 1-seed.

[BandAlum83]

If I figured the multi-team 13-5 scenarios correctly (post # 33), if Miami loses only to ND, that alone guarantees a 13-5 Duke no worse than 2-seed, but not necessarily 1-seed.

Post #27 shows the scenario if all favorites win to the end other than Virginia (loss at Clemson next game after a let down). That post anticipated today's ND loss.

[BandAlum83]

This scenario calculator was down earlier, but seems to be working again. Check it out!

http://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=mbb

[nocilla]

So we are now cheering for Miami to win at ND right? Since we are battling ND for the 4 seed.

Another thought since we are all pulling for the Cuse tonight anyway; if Syracuse can win and we beat UNC Saturday, then UNC would most likely drop to the 5 seed.

[CDu]

So we are now cheering for Miami to win at ND right? Since we are battling ND for the 4 seed.

Another thought since we are all pulling for the Cuse tonight anyway; if Syracuse can win and we beat UNC Saturday, then UNC would most likely drop to the 5 seed.

See the "This week in the ACC" thread, but yes. We very much want Miami to win at Notre Dame, and we very much want Louisville to win at UVa. Neither is especially likely, but that's what we want to happen.

We also realistically want the teams directly behind us (Syracuse, Pitt, Clemson) to lose again, because if we do lose to UNC-CH we would lose any tiebreakers with any combination of those teams. So it would be great for Syracuse to lose to FSU (can't cheer against them against UNC-CH), Clemson to lose to UVa (they aren't losing to BC), and Pitt to lose to at least one of the Tech schools.

If we win out, we can finish with anywhere from the 1 seed to 5 seed:
- First if UNC-CH and Miami both lose out (very unlikely);
- 2nd if only one of UNC-CH and Miami lose out;
- 3rd if UVa and ND lose again;
- 4th if UVa wins out and ND loses again;
- 5th if UVa and ND win out

So we definitely want ND and UVa to lose again, but preferably not to teams directly behind us in the standings.