Lineup/Rotation changes for Saturday

[JNort]

With Matt out (unofficial) we are down to 4 perimeter players (Derryck, Grayson, Luke and Brandon) for Saturday's game. I know we did it against Unc for a half but can or will we even try to play a full 40 minutes with the subs for our guards? I'm assuming we gotta play with 2 bigs in at some point for a little bit to rest someone or save them from foul trouble.

What combo(s) of bigs will we see? Only a Jeter/Plumlee?

[Bob Green]

With Jefferson and Jones out, we don't have a rotation.

[wallyman]

With Jefferson and Jones out, we don't have a rotation.

We have a spare tire, but not one you really want to take on the highway.

[CDu]

Barring foul trouble, I think all four guards/wings will approach 40 minutes, and Plumlee will probably top 35. If Jeter plays more than about 8 minutes, that suggests foul trouble or another injury.

[gurufrisbee]

I really hope they get 15-20 minutes from Jeter and Obi and use Ingram at the 3 more. If not just for the hope of some more development of those two guys, but also for the survival of the other five.

[BD80]

I really hope they get 15-20 minutes from Jeter and Obi and use Ingram at the 3 more. If not just for the hope of some more development of those two guys, but also for the survival of the other five.

Particularly because Luhiville has VERY physical and athletic bigs that just dominated Cuse in their last game. It looked like a dunking competition.

[CDu]

I really hope they get 15-20 minutes from Jeter and Obi and use Ingram at the 3 more. If not just for the hope of some more development of those two guys, but also for the survival of the other five.

I wouldn't hold my breath on that.

[Wander]

Just logistically, it's hard to go too many games literally only playing 6 guys. If Amile and Matt are both still out for multiple games, I'm sure we'll see Obi or Vrank in a couple spot minutes at some point over the next stretch.

[devildeac]

Something simple: Jeter subs in for ~2 minutes for each of the guys throughout the game (maybe 6 minutes first half and 4 minutes second half), with Brandon moving to the "wing" when Chase is in with MP3. Yea, I know, too simple/never work (but it did for me when I sketched it out on a napkin at diner tonight:o) so I'll trust K to figure it out again. :o

[JNort]

Barring foul trouble, I think all four guards/wings will approach 40 minutes, and Plumlee will probably top 35. If Jeter plays more than about 8 minutes, that suggests foul trouble or another injury.
I'm just not sure that can be possible. Especially against the Ville. Fouls alone would push that

[Newton_14]

I really hope they get 15-20 minutes from Jeter and Obi and use Ingram at the 3 more. If not just for the hope of some more development of those two guys, but also for the survival of the other five.
I mean no disrespect to you nor Obi, but I think there is very little chance of Obi playing unless foul trouble forces it. We might see Vrank the Tank before Obi again. I would hope it is due to some undisclosed injury/condition, but to date in a Duke uniform, Obi has just not shown the ability to make positive contributions, save for one very short stretch (and it is a stretch to refer to it as a stretch) in one of the games. I forget which, but he grabbed a key rebound on the offensive end, drew a foul, received chest bumps and attaboys from his teammates, but then missed the FT's. To his credit though, the young man has been the model of what a great bench rider teammate should look like in terms of attitude on the bench during games and in timeouts, etc. Always encouraging teammates, always applauding/jumping for joy for great plays, etc. I really wish he could make a positive influence on the floor.

To the OP's question and point though, obvious to those of us that follow the team closely, there are now only 4 recruited/scholarship guard/wings on the team, so the only way to rest one of them is to play a 2 big lineup with no Power Forward. No matter which two of the bigs K chooses to roll with, there will be no PF with any offensive ability outside of the lane. I know Marshall has a career 3-Point avg of.1000% and all, and has developed into a pretty decent FT Shooter, I'm not seeing K asking him to take midrange jumpers or 3's, so teams can clog the lane more on us to help stop/bother the penetration of our 4 guards. It's not like 2010 when Lance could make the midrange jumper. This team no longer has that option while both Amile and Matt are out.

It will also be impossible to rest 2 of the guard/wings at the same time, so staying out of foul trouble is imperative, and God help us should anyone of the remaining 4 get hurt. If we have one of those rare games where multiple guys get in foul trouble and/or foul out, ala 2005? at Wake Forest, it could get comical in a hurry. Hopefully that does not happen though.

With Amile out, in addition to being the backup PG, Matt was also the backup PF to Brandon. We now have no backup PF, and one of Ingram/Allen/Kennard has to take on the backup PG duties, though that is far less problematic as all 3 have shown to be more than capable of performing well in that role.

The silver lining is just how versatile the trio of Ingram/Allen/Kennard on offense and defense are, and how all 3 bring good/great size.

We really really need Matt back soon. This team has just roared back, developed really well, shown tremendous grit and toughness in righting the ship, so it will be a shame if they can't get one or both of Amile/Matt back to show just how good they can be/are. A darn shame.

[uh_no]

ala 2005? at Wake Forest

2008 the whole starting lineup fouled out, if i recall.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=280480154

[devildeac]

2008 the whole starting lineup fouled out, if i recall.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=280480154

Good golly I *hate* you for posting that link. I had forgotten they all fouled out, thinking we'd never had a game when all 5 starters were DQ'ed (and I don't mean the Orange Julius makers either). There are two other games I've suppressed, one at MD where OT was played by JJ, a frosh (maybe) and 3 little used or walk-on players, losing by 7. The other was at f$u during the rematch from a game earlier that season where an f$u player was T'ed up, only to have the acc (officials?) office rewiewed and deemed unwarranted. Stray was at that game and I'll never forget his post (or PM) the next day, but, if he's reading, I'll let him share that info. I think they shot 40 FT to our 18 and had 15 PF called to about 30 for us. (I'm sure someone can post those box score, too. Too much pain/anger for me to research:mad:.) All 3 were fine, fine jobs (cough, cough) of (consistent) acc officiating :mad: .

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Paging Jay Heaps! Mr. Heaps? Paging Mr. Jay Heaps!

[lotusland]

Looking at next year's lineup, especially if Allen returns, I wonder if it might be better for Justin and Duke, if he redshirt next yr. Of course he would only help if he's ready to defend the 3/4 positions for 5-10 a game to help rest the non-MP3 guys.

[Scorp4me]

I mean no disrespect to you nor Obi, but I think there is very little chance of Obi playing unless foul trouble forces it. We might see Vrank the Tank before Obi again. I would hope it is due to some undisclosed injury/condition, but to date in a Duke uniform, Obi has just not shown the ability to make positive contributions, save for one very short stretch (and it is a stretch to refer to it as a stretch) in one of the games. I forget which, but he grabbed a key rebound on the offensive end, drew a foul, received chest bumps and attaboys from his teammates, but then missed the FT's. To his credit though, the young man has been the model of what a great bench rider teammate should look like in terms of attitude on the bench during games and in timeouts, etc. Always encouraging teammates, always applauding/jumping for joy for great plays, etc. I really wish he could make a positive influence on the floor.

No disrespect to Coach K, but barring some undisclosed injury/condition as you said if Ben Braun can get not only meaningful minutes but a meaningful first year out of Sean Obi then why the heck can't Coach K get some meaningful minutes out of a third year Sean Obi. I know it's the ACC but has to be some injury I would think.

[CDu]

I'm just not sure that can be possible. Especially against the Ville. Fouls alone would push that

Ingram and Allen played 40 and 39 minutes against Louisville last time. Plumlee played 35. Kennard only played 20, but that is only because Jones was available. So it is most certainly possible for our five starters to log 190+ combined minutes. And barring excessive foul trouble I think that is exactly what we will see.

Now, if anyone gets in excessive foul trouble, obviously the equation changes. But I think "Plan A" is going to be rolling with our starters all game, and subbing Jeter in here and there for Plumlee and maybe stealing a minute or two for the perimeter guys by going with Jeter and Plumlee briefly.

But as I said, if we see more than 10 minutes from our bench, I think that will be either due to major foul trouble or injury.

[MChambers]

No disrespect to Coach K, but barring some undisclosed injury/condition as you said if Ben Braun can get not only meaningful minutes but a meaningful first year out of Sean Obi then why the heck can't Coach K get some meaningful minutes out of a third year Sean Obi. I know it's the ACC but has to be some injury I would think.

Maybe you missed the Sean Obi thread where it was discussed that Obi has had knee problems.

[hallcity]

Particularly because Luhiville has VERY physical and athletic bigs that just dominated Cuse in their last game. It looked like a dunking competition.

Right. Louisville is much bigger and much more physical than UNC. We must cower in their presence.

Seriously, there's no way to know how this game will be officiated. Duke may get into foul trouble. Certainly, Louisville will do what it can to make that happen. If it happens, there are no good options for Coach K. We'll lose big time.

I don't understand how anyone can think that having Jeter or Obi or Vrank in the game for extended minutes would be anything other than a disaster. Next year maybe but not this year.

[gumbomoop]

I think "Plan A" is going to be rolling with our starters all game, and subbing Jeter in here and there for Plumlee and maybe stealing a minute or two for the perimeter guys by going with Jeter and Plumlee briefly.

This seems most likely to me, too. I'll guess K will use Jeter just before every "under" timeout throughout the game, excepting maybe the last one in second half. Either take Jeter out coming out of timeout, or get him to scorer's table immediately after game recommences. When both Plumlee and Jeter are on floor, there will still be 3 perimeter guys who can both 3-bomb and drive. Maybe Plumlee and Jeter crash boards for O-rebound, while at least 2 of perimeter guys back on D. And surely at least once, Jeter high screen, Grayson drives and dishes to Plumlee hiding under backboard.

[wsb3]

If only Fred Lind would emerge from the bench.:)

[sagegrouse]

To the OP's question and point though, obvious to those of us that follow the team closely, there are now only 4 recruited/scholarship guard/wings on the team, so the only way to rest one of them is to play a 2 big lineup with no Power Forward. No matter which two of the bigs K chooses to roll with, there will be no PF with any offensive ability outside of the lane. I know Marshall has a career 3-Point avg of.1000% and all, and has developed into a pretty decent FT Shooter, I'm not seeing K asking him to take midrange jumpers or 3's, so teams can clog the lane more on us to help stop/bother the penetration of our 4 guards. It's not like 2010 when Lance could make the midrange jumper. This team no longer has that option while both Amile and Matt are out.

.

Yep. If Marshall is joined on the court by Jeter or Obi (or Vrank), Duke will not have a power forward with scoring potential. I don't think that is so important with this team. All of the other players on the court can put up points in profusion. We will need intelligent defense, smart screens and decent rebounding from our two bigs. Wiil we get that? Heck, I have no idea, but the least of my worries is their ability to score.

[DukeDevilDeb]

Maybe you missed the Sean Obi thread where it was discussed that Obi has had knee problems.

Can you provide the link? Thanks

[ricks68]

If only Fred Lind would emerge from the bench.:)

So very, very true. (Spoken from someone who was at that game.☺)

ricks

[wsb3]

So very, very true. (Spoken from someone who was at that game.☺)

ricks

I was a kid watching on television. I have a source that has a lot of Duke games on DVD..too bad they don't go back to those days. I would love to have a copy of that game..& a few others. Triple OT..Wow! Must have been something to be there..:)

http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/games/boxscore.php?gameid=19680302

[MChambers]

Can you provide the link? Thanks

Here, starting with post 55:

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?36903-Whither-Obi/page3&highlight=knee

[CDu]

Here, starting with post 55:

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?36903-Whither-Obi/page3&highlight=knee

To be fair, that all just seems to be speculation. Perhaps very good speculation, but it is not exactly hard evidence of knee problems.

[Ultrarunner]

Yep. If Marshall is joined on the court by Jeter or Obi (or Vrank), Duke will not have a power forward with scoring potential. I don't think that is so important with this team. All of the other players on the court can put up points in profusion. We will need intelligent defense, smart screens and decent rebounding from our two bigs. Wiil we get that? Heck, I have no idea, but the least of my worries is their ability to score.

One thing to watch if we do end up with Jeter and MP3 in at the same time is a high post entry bounce pass from MP3 to Jeter cutting to the bucket. Before Amile's injury, that set was pretty successful once or twice a game because the defense expects Marshall to hand off to one of the guards.

We know Marshall can deliver the ball. Can Jeter finish the play? It would be nice to add another worry for the Louisville defense.

[MChambers]

To be fair, that all just seems to be speculation. Perhaps very good speculation, but it is not exactly hard evidence of knee problems.

I don't think I presented this as a medical diagnosis! This is an internet message board, after all.

[Avvocato]

First off, can a five man rotation really be called a rotation? Discuss.

In any case, I think these are the types of challenges that K loves. I'm not remotely comparing the two exactly, but it reminds me of after Boozer breaking his foot in 2001, K starts never used Casey Sanders at center, brings Reggie Love as a big off the bench, inserts Duhon as a starter, brings Nate James off the bench, and just went with it. Again, not comparing the two rosters or situations exactly, but my point is that I can see K giving some spot minutes to using Jeter at the 4 or giving a couple of minutes to someone random off the bench just to give some rest to one of the guards, or just doing something we didn't expect. While I know our guys can play 35-40 minutes, not sure it's fair to expect them or require them to every game this late in the season. I think he will have to use some of the bench for spot minutes. I just hope he's not forced to use the bench for extensive minutes, because then you know we're in real trouble.

Also, there will be a time when Plumlee will have to sit with fouls. Not because Plumlee can't play smart, but I think particularly after the UNC game, Louisville will look to attack and pressure us. Doing so would be something UNC wasn't. Can't think of the word. Smart. Yes, that's the word. Let's see if they (opponents) can pull it off. I actually love watching to see how this Duke team handles their situation.

While I think K would love it better if he had his full roster, I do think he enjoys these challenges. Bring it on.

With that said, I have no illusions or expectations that this 5-man squad can go into Louisville and do this again. But how much fun would it be if we did. I'm also concerned if there will be an emotional let down after such an amazing victory. Can't wait to see us try to pull this out again. Can't wait.

[TKG]

I beg the groups' indulgence as I toss out an idea for a potential strategy for combating potential fatigue of Five Guys. Is there a way that K could use his TOs between TV TOs to limit the amount of time the guys must play without a rest? For example, I was thinking K could call a TO at the 10 minutes mark (between the under 12 and under 8 official TOs), as way to provide additional recovery time for the boys. This might prove helpful in the second half when cumulative fatigue sets in. This assumes he doesn't have use his TOs for other purposes during the game (I had a flash back to Econ and the term "ceterus paribus") when posing this potential solution.

Anyway, just a thought.

[Kedsy]

Do we know for sure that Amile isn't playing?

[scottdude8]

I know the likelihood of this happening is minuscule at best, but I really think K should consider giving one of the walk-ons (probably Pagliuca) 2-3 minutes of PT in the first half to get the bench guys some rest. I've got to imagine that playing him for that short a period, preferably at a time where matchups allow it (ie the best Louisville guards are also resting) is not going to cause a 10 point swing in the game... and I'm strongly of the belief that perhaps giving up a 4-5 point swing in the first half is worth it to have Grayson et. al. have a little extra pep in their step going down the stretch.

For an example of how this can work, look at Michigan (I know this is always my non-Duke example, but hey, it's the other team I watch religiously). Ever since Spike Albrecht and Caris Levert went down, Beilein has been giving walk-on Andrew Dakich 4-5 minutes a game in the first half to give PG Derrick Walton, who otherwise would probably never leave the game, a breather. Dakich doesn't score (he's smart enough to rarely take even an open shot), but he knows since he's only going to play a few minutes he can go all out defensively, and is actually a fairly smart passer on offense. His presence on the floor rarely costs Michigan more than a few points, and then our key players like Walton are fresher down the stretch.

Again, I highly doubt K does this. I think a more realistic scenario would be to see a few minutes of both Plumlee and Jeter in the game to get the guards a breather. But given how exhausted the team looked gutting it out against UNC I think it's a worthwhile thought.

[Tripping William]

Something simple: Jeter subs in for ~2 minutes for each of the guys throughout the game (maybe 6 minutes first half and 4 minutes second half), with Brandon moving to the "wing" when Chase is in with MP3. Yea, I know, too simple/never work (but it did for me when I sketched it out on a napkin at diner tonight:o) so I'll trust K to figure it out again. :o

This reads like the Bill Guthridge Approach to Starting Line-Ups. :rolleyes: :p

[Lar77]

I beg the groups' indulgence as I toss out an idea for a potential strategy for combating potential fatigue of Five Guys. Is there a way that K could use his TOs between TV TOs to limit the amount of time the guys must play without a rest? For example, I was thinking K could call a TO at the 10 minutes mark (between the under 12 and under 8 official TOs), as way to provide additional recovery time for the boys. This might prove helpful in the second half when cumulative fatigue sets in. This assumes he doesn't have use his TOs for other purposes during the game (I had a flash back to Econ and the term "ceterus paribus") when posing this potential solution.

Anyway, just a thought.

I'm pretty sure K will use TOs to rest players unless he gets in on Roy's deal at McDonalds.

Jeter will see more time. Somewhere in the old recruiting/playing time threads, I recall someone talking about Jeter having a decent outside shot. Haven't seen it yet, but does he have one?

On the press, I don't recall Duke having trouble with presses this year after the first couple of games.

My biggest concern, everyone's concern, is foul trouble. Louisville may play a game of attrition like Wake did a few2 years ago.

Speaking of Wake, does Patrick Davidson have any eligibility left?

[Doria]

Fully agree that Coack K uses TO's to rest team (thankfully, we have the TV TO's, too). I really doubt we see anything majorly different, though, in terms of lineup. We've been short handed all season long, albeit with a somewhat wider margin for error. Yeah, it'll be very tough, but barring foul troubles, I think Coach K goes with his already very tough team.

But anything's possible, and I'm sure Coach K will consider every angle.

[freshmanjs]

Do we know for sure that Amile isn't playing?

And, do we know for sure that Matt isn't playing?

[duke79]

Why can't we just play with four players on the court for some of the game, like they do in hockey with penalties? The goal, like in hockey, would be to keep the other team from scoring as much as possible and giving some rest to the one of our starters.

[kAzE]

If there's no foul trouble or (God forbid) another injury, Grayson and Brandon are a lock for the complete game.

[Scorp4me]

I don't think I presented this as a medical diagnosis! This is an internet message board, after all.

I'm pretty sure I commented in that thread, but as most have pointed out that is mere speculation based on a comment from an announcer. It's as likely a reason as any, but no real support.

[CDu]

And, do we know for sure that Matt isn't playing?

Jones is definitely out, no idea about Jefferson.

[Saratoga2]

There is a different way to think about the game and that is, with our 4 guard types (counting Brandon), it may force Louisville to counter with a smaller lineup. If that happens then some of their perceived advantage is negated. On offense, Brandon is difficult to guard. If a big defends him, he can go around him and will also get the help of MP3 screens. If a small defends him, he can shoot over him. He has a 3, a mid range game, can get to the rim and is now hitting close to 70% of this free throws. On the other side, we have Grayson, who is also hard to guard with a mixture of scoring abilities. If they help much on those two you have Luke who is a very good scorer in his own right. Derryck is very quick and can have a good scoring night if they help too much on the others and don't lose sight of MP3, as his scoring has been improving over the last month.

In other words, I wouldn't minimize the Duke advantages and I am sure coach K exploits it by using pro-style isolation plays with both his top scorers. Our biggest concerns will be fatigue and foul trouble. It will be interesting to watch.

[DukeDevilDeb]

To be fair, that all just seems to be speculation. Perhaps very good speculation, but it is not exactly hard evidence of knee problems.

May be speculation, but usually something like this stems from some truth. Thanks, MChambers. I read that entire thread and some how missed it!

[huey]

Looking at next year's lineup, especially if Allen returns, I wonder if it might be better for Justin and Duke, if he redshirt next yr. Of course he would only help if he's ready to defend the 3/4 positions for 5-10 a game to help rest the non-MP3 guys.

I'm really interested in this as well. I know you don't want to give up someone's redshirt just for a game or two, but will Duke ever need Justin more? What happens if (god forbid) one of our 4 perimeter guys goes down? Does Chase Jeter play the rest of the game?

What if two perimeter guys go down/foul out? Do we put in walk ons? Or does Justin come in?

The coaches know who's best suited at this point, but this is crazy how small our bench (or non-bench) is. So they'll know whether the walkons or Justin should come in.

[jv001]

Just a question without much thought before said question. Do you think we would be better off playing more of Chase and Big V? Or do you think we would be better off playing more zone defense against Louisville? Either way is pretty risky. Coach K is the master in big games and I expect him to come up with something unusual even if he goes strictly with our 5 main players. GoDuke!

[Doria]

Just a question without much thought before said question. Do you think we would be better off playing more of Chase and Big V? Or do you think we would be better off playing more zone defense against Louisville? Either way is pretty risky. Coach K is the master in big games and I expect him to come up with something unusual even if he goes strictly with our 5 main players. GoDuke!

I think we're better off playing as much Chase as we can get away with (specifically, for example, if we can put him in shortly before media timeouts). I wouldn't be surprised to see some zone, but I'd be pretty surprised to see a lot of it. And if we see a lot of it, that likely means that our guys just cannot complete either because of fouls or exhaustion. The good news is that our next game isn't for a fair amount of time, so no reason to leave anything in the tank. And I'm pretty sure after tomorrow's game, not a lot will be.

I'm totally open to Coach K brilliantly surprising me and doing neither of these two things! It's just that given our very limited personnel, I think there's an equal limit to the things he can do.

[jv001]

I think we're better off playing as much Chase as we can get away with (specifically, for example, if we can put him in shortly before media timeouts). I wouldn't be surprised to see some zone, but I'd be pretty surprised to see a lot of it. And if we see a lot of it, that likely means that our guys just cannot complete either because of fouls or exhaustion. The good news is that our next game isn't for a fair amount of time, so no reason to leave anything in the tank. And I'm pretty sure after tomorrow's game, not a lot will be.

I'm totally open to Coach K brilliantly surprising me and doing neither of these two things! It's just that given our very limited personnel, I think there's an equal limit to the things he can do.

Thanks for your input. I imagine foul trouble will dictate minutes for our short bench. I'm hoping that's not a problem tomorrow but it has happened in the past. GoDuke!

[sagegrouse]

Just a question without much thought before said question. Do you think we would be better off playing more of Chase and Big V? Or do you think we would be better off playing more zone defense against Louisville? Either way is pretty risky. Coach K is the master in big games and I expect him to come up with something unusual even if he goes strictly with our 5 main players. GoDuke!

First, we aren't gonna play five guys for 40 minutes each. That's crazy. I expect us to have substitutes in for 10-20 minutes. The question is, "Who?" Three-fourths of the minutes for the subs have gone to Chase. I expect him to play 10+ minutes, sharing the court with Marshall to give the guards a break. If Chase is ineffective, then we will see Obi or Vrank.

I am having a hard time seeing Pagliuca or Besser getting minutes, so the substitutes will be the "bigs."

Second, our man-to-man defense has been very good the last five games (since the 2nd half at Georgia Tech). I'd be surprised if we spent a lot of time in zone, which will make substituting even more important.

Third, this seems like a great time for Amile to return to action.

[Newton_14]

Yep. If Marshall is joined on the court by Jeter or Obi (or Vrank), Duke will not have a power forward with scoring potential. I don't think that is so important with this team. All of the other players on the court can put up points in profusion. We will need intelligent defense, smart screens and decent rebounding from our two bigs. Wiil we get that? Heck, I have no idea, but the least of my worries is their ability to score.

I get that our guys are crazy good offensively, but with two bigs for Duke in the game, Louisville will use one to clog the lane at all times, and their guards will try to defend the 3 point line like a blanket. Can we score anyway? Maybe. It will for sure be tougher though.

Like others though, I am most interested in seeing what K comes up with.