superdave
02-18-2016, 04:25 PM
Here’s the link to Phase IV. We went 4-0 during this Phase. Who saw that coming?
http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?37262-Phase-IV-2015-16-Season
Here’s a quick preview of the matchups in Phase V before we get into the details:
- The Louisville re-match, this time on the road, will certainly be a tough one. There’s potential for a letdown after this depleted roster left it all on the court vs Unc.
- FSU at home. They could really use an upset win if they have any prayer of playing their way onto the bubble.
- Pitt is squarely on the bubble and has not been playing well of late. But conference road games are always tough.
- Wake Forest is always tough because we never seem to be able to guard Devin Thomas.
- The Unc re-match will be a tough one. Here’s hoping Amile is back to guard Johnson. Senior night for Amile and Marshall.
Health
We need to catch a break here. Oooops, bad choice of words. We need the basketball gods to smile upon us and send their healing rays down to Amile and Matt’s lower extremities. This really kinda sucks because we are so talented and the NCAA field is wiiiiiiide open this year without a single dominant team.
The immediate concern is how long we will have a Matt Jones Ankle Vigil thread up. The long-term concern is when and if we ever get Amile back. We are past the two month point. This is kinda nauseating. Without Jones, Jeter is going to have to play a few more minutes. But you can expect the five starters to be playing 35+ minutes for the duration. That is a lot to ask.
When Amile does come back, how will he be re-integrated? Does he claim a starting spot and 30+ minutes? Do we play a lot less of Brandon at the 4? I think Amile should come off the bench in recognition of the fact that the chemistry is good and things are clicking. History shows that Coach K will throw an established starter right back into the starting lineup (Irving, Kelly).
Dare I mention Coach K’s health too? He missed the GT game and Jeff Capel filled in admirably. Let’s just move on….
Defensive Schemes
Man-to-man D has improved a lot the last month. Derryck Thornton is a big reason for that. DT will get his own section below, but he deserves a mountain of praise. You know Coach K so you know this is a his go-to. We kept working on the man even when zone appeared to be the more attractive option after Amile went down. That work is paying off.
Zone is a curveball and necessary to protect against foul trouble. We may see more of the 2-3 if Matt is out a few games. We may get the 1-3-1 back if we ever get Amile back. That was a good look for us with Brandon up top putting his incredible wing span to good use.
I always like the wrinkles Coach K comes up with for one-off use. We face-guarded Cat Barber 90 feet from the basket and it screwed up State’s rhythm to start the game. I bet we see some adjustment in the next Carolina game to throw a blanket on Brice Johnson.
Defensive Rebounding
For ACC only games, we are -1.5 in rebounding margin and 13th in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage (65.6%). With Amile out, this is not a surprise. He was averaging a double double. The boards are where we miss him most. But Brandon is rebounding well on the defensive end. He is doing everything you could want a skinny freshman to do at the 4 position. Marshall is a pretty good rim protector, but not a great defensive rebounder. But I swear he has a knack for stepping it up down the stretch of games. You cannot ask much more of either guy.
Anyone have rebounding % stats for those two they can share? I cannot imagine they are great, but I feel like these two are close to maxing out their rebounding potential.
The Rotation and Endurance
Given our health and thin bench, and don’t forget about our relative youth, our rotation is going to log heavy minutes this Phase. Chase Jeter barely got on the court in the second half vs Unc, and probably only did because of Marshall’s four fouls. Until Matt comes back (assuming he misses a game or two?), there is no rest for the weary and no margin for error. Does anyone hit a wall? Can we keep winning close games? A close finish can be exhausting.
Derryck’s Improvement
This is the story of last Phase. Derryck moved into the starting lineup after the loss to Miami. The last five games he is averaging 31 minutes and we are 5-0. The prior five games he averaged 19.8 minutes and we lost 4 of those 5. He was playing too fast on the offensive end, taking bad shots and looking like a freshman.
But something has clicked with him. He is dialed in on defense. Since joining the starting lineup he has 9 steals and two blocks (including getting a hand on Joel Berry’s game winning shot attempt vs Unc). The previous five games, he had two steals and no blocks. He’s aggressive on D and it makes our man-to-man look pretty darn good. We held teams to 70 points per game the last five games, but gave up 77 over the rough five game stretch including 95 to ND.
He is also dialed in on the offensive end. Coming off the bench for the rough five game stretch his assist turnover ratio was 7:6, the last five games it is 13:8. He is initiating the offense well, but also keeping things balanced by getting out of Ingram and Allen’s way when necessary (which is often). He seems to have lost the urge to over-point-guard things, if that makes sense.
Derryck does have further to go. We could use a few more buckets out of him. He’s only scored in double figure once in conference play. He is 10-33 from 3-land in ACC play (30%). We don need a whole lot of points from him, but through good shot selection his shooting % should rise.
Are We an Elite Team?
We just beat #13 Louisville, #7 Virginia and #5 Carolina. In a row. That’s far removed from losing 4 of 5 games in January and dropping out of the polls. That is the level of competition you can expect to see in regional final matchups and we won them all.
There is not a team in the country that scares me. Last year, Duke, Kentucky and Wisconsin were elite. This year the top teams are below the elite level that last year's tiop tier were in. I like Kansas’s two wins over Oklahoma, but how good is Oklahoma? Villanova is #1 for now but got handled by Oklahoma and Virginia. Guessing they are not going to steamroll the field in March. Maryland has a nice win vs Iowa but lost to Sparty and Unc and got embarrassed on their home court vs Wisconsin. I could go on, but you get the picture. We’re all flawed.
We have elite talent that is producing at a high level. Our offensive rating on kenpom.com is #2 (behind Notre Dame only). Our defensive rating has gone from the 150 range to the 90s the last couple of weeks. Coach K is putting the house in order. The defense has been stellar closing out the last two games against two Elite 8 levels squads. We still can get better, but we are on a big upswing and will hopefully have Amile back and a healthy 7-man rotation by the end of this Phase. As I mentioned previously, the NCAA tournament is going to be wide open and we will have as good a chance as anyone if the health thing gets fixed.
Go Duke!
May The Force be with you, young Blue Devils!
http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?37262-Phase-IV-2015-16-Season
Here’s a quick preview of the matchups in Phase V before we get into the details:
- The Louisville re-match, this time on the road, will certainly be a tough one. There’s potential for a letdown after this depleted roster left it all on the court vs Unc.
- FSU at home. They could really use an upset win if they have any prayer of playing their way onto the bubble.
- Pitt is squarely on the bubble and has not been playing well of late. But conference road games are always tough.
- Wake Forest is always tough because we never seem to be able to guard Devin Thomas.
- The Unc re-match will be a tough one. Here’s hoping Amile is back to guard Johnson. Senior night for Amile and Marshall.
Health
We need to catch a break here. Oooops, bad choice of words. We need the basketball gods to smile upon us and send their healing rays down to Amile and Matt’s lower extremities. This really kinda sucks because we are so talented and the NCAA field is wiiiiiiide open this year without a single dominant team.
The immediate concern is how long we will have a Matt Jones Ankle Vigil thread up. The long-term concern is when and if we ever get Amile back. We are past the two month point. This is kinda nauseating. Without Jones, Jeter is going to have to play a few more minutes. But you can expect the five starters to be playing 35+ minutes for the duration. That is a lot to ask.
When Amile does come back, how will he be re-integrated? Does he claim a starting spot and 30+ minutes? Do we play a lot less of Brandon at the 4? I think Amile should come off the bench in recognition of the fact that the chemistry is good and things are clicking. History shows that Coach K will throw an established starter right back into the starting lineup (Irving, Kelly).
Dare I mention Coach K’s health too? He missed the GT game and Jeff Capel filled in admirably. Let’s just move on….
Defensive Schemes
Man-to-man D has improved a lot the last month. Derryck Thornton is a big reason for that. DT will get his own section below, but he deserves a mountain of praise. You know Coach K so you know this is a his go-to. We kept working on the man even when zone appeared to be the more attractive option after Amile went down. That work is paying off.
Zone is a curveball and necessary to protect against foul trouble. We may see more of the 2-3 if Matt is out a few games. We may get the 1-3-1 back if we ever get Amile back. That was a good look for us with Brandon up top putting his incredible wing span to good use.
I always like the wrinkles Coach K comes up with for one-off use. We face-guarded Cat Barber 90 feet from the basket and it screwed up State’s rhythm to start the game. I bet we see some adjustment in the next Carolina game to throw a blanket on Brice Johnson.
Defensive Rebounding
For ACC only games, we are -1.5 in rebounding margin and 13th in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage (65.6%). With Amile out, this is not a surprise. He was averaging a double double. The boards are where we miss him most. But Brandon is rebounding well on the defensive end. He is doing everything you could want a skinny freshman to do at the 4 position. Marshall is a pretty good rim protector, but not a great defensive rebounder. But I swear he has a knack for stepping it up down the stretch of games. You cannot ask much more of either guy.
Anyone have rebounding % stats for those two they can share? I cannot imagine they are great, but I feel like these two are close to maxing out their rebounding potential.
The Rotation and Endurance
Given our health and thin bench, and don’t forget about our relative youth, our rotation is going to log heavy minutes this Phase. Chase Jeter barely got on the court in the second half vs Unc, and probably only did because of Marshall’s four fouls. Until Matt comes back (assuming he misses a game or two?), there is no rest for the weary and no margin for error. Does anyone hit a wall? Can we keep winning close games? A close finish can be exhausting.
Derryck’s Improvement
This is the story of last Phase. Derryck moved into the starting lineup after the loss to Miami. The last five games he is averaging 31 minutes and we are 5-0. The prior five games he averaged 19.8 minutes and we lost 4 of those 5. He was playing too fast on the offensive end, taking bad shots and looking like a freshman.
But something has clicked with him. He is dialed in on defense. Since joining the starting lineup he has 9 steals and two blocks (including getting a hand on Joel Berry’s game winning shot attempt vs Unc). The previous five games, he had two steals and no blocks. He’s aggressive on D and it makes our man-to-man look pretty darn good. We held teams to 70 points per game the last five games, but gave up 77 over the rough five game stretch including 95 to ND.
He is also dialed in on the offensive end. Coming off the bench for the rough five game stretch his assist turnover ratio was 7:6, the last five games it is 13:8. He is initiating the offense well, but also keeping things balanced by getting out of Ingram and Allen’s way when necessary (which is often). He seems to have lost the urge to over-point-guard things, if that makes sense.
Derryck does have further to go. We could use a few more buckets out of him. He’s only scored in double figure once in conference play. He is 10-33 from 3-land in ACC play (30%). We don need a whole lot of points from him, but through good shot selection his shooting % should rise.
Are We an Elite Team?
We just beat #13 Louisville, #7 Virginia and #5 Carolina. In a row. That’s far removed from losing 4 of 5 games in January and dropping out of the polls. That is the level of competition you can expect to see in regional final matchups and we won them all.
There is not a team in the country that scares me. Last year, Duke, Kentucky and Wisconsin were elite. This year the top teams are below the elite level that last year's tiop tier were in. I like Kansas’s two wins over Oklahoma, but how good is Oklahoma? Villanova is #1 for now but got handled by Oklahoma and Virginia. Guessing they are not going to steamroll the field in March. Maryland has a nice win vs Iowa but lost to Sparty and Unc and got embarrassed on their home court vs Wisconsin. I could go on, but you get the picture. We’re all flawed.
We have elite talent that is producing at a high level. Our offensive rating on kenpom.com is #2 (behind Notre Dame only). Our defensive rating has gone from the 150 range to the 90s the last couple of weeks. Coach K is putting the house in order. The defense has been stellar closing out the last two games against two Elite 8 levels squads. We still can get better, but we are on a big upswing and will hopefully have Amile back and a healthy 7-man rotation by the end of this Phase. As I mentioned previously, the NCAA tournament is going to be wide open and we will have as good a chance as anyone if the health thing gets fixed.
Go Duke!
May The Force be with you, young Blue Devils!