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Tripping William
02-15-2016, 01:46 PM
Where will Duke be? 18?
Will the title of the thread be changed?
What about "Duke is back"?

Just in: Duke is #20 in today's AP Poll. I will leave a thread-title change (or not) to others. Link is here (http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1?cid=ncaammsocial_fb_sf20958806).

Olympic Fan
02-15-2016, 01:57 PM
Just in: Duke is #20 in today's AP Poll. I will leave a thread-title change (or not) to others.

And No. 19 in the coaches poll.

The ACC back to six teams in the AP poll ... Notre Dame also moved in at No. 19 (No. 18 in the coaches)

Interesting that Virginia stayed at No. 7, despite the loss to Duke.

BTW: I suspect that Duke could stay in the poll next week with a close loss at UNC, followed by a win at Louisville.

But an 0-2 week would drop us out again, unless those were two hellacious games.

luburch
02-15-2016, 02:05 PM
More importantly Duke is 11th in Kenpom. http://kenpom.com/

2nd in AdjO and 109 in AdjD.

uh_no
02-15-2016, 02:06 PM
More importantly Duke is 11th in Kenpom. http://kenpom.com/

2nd in AdjO and 109 in AdjD.

we were up to 10 or 9 a couple days ago. it's pretty fluid.

OZZIE4DUKE
02-15-2016, 04:30 PM
Our current streak (did someone say STREAK!!!!!!!!!) of being rated in the AP poll is 1. Here's to beating http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gifcarolina http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gifand making it 2!

Olympic Fan
02-15-2016, 05:57 PM
More importantly Duke is 11th in Kenpom. http://kenpom.com/

2nd in AdjO and 109 in AdjD.

And more important than that, Duke is up to No. 17 in the RPI.

Not saying the RPI is a better gauge than Kenpom -- it's not -- but it's more important because its the single most important metric to the Selection Committee.

BTW: We are also up to No. 15 in the RPI SOS ... that metric will climb later this week, win or lose against UNC and Louisville.

uh_no
02-15-2016, 06:04 PM
And more important than that, Duke is up to No. 17 in the RPI.

Not saying the RPI is a better gauge than Kenpom -- it's not -- but it's more important because its the single most important metric to the Selection Committee.

BTW: We are also up to No. 15 in the RPI SOS ... that metric will climb later this week, win or lose against UNC and Louisville.

eh. the committee only cares about the vs RPI25 and vs RPI50....much less the actual rankings.

which is still complete BS....but it is what it is.

duke4ever19
02-20-2016, 02:46 PM
For curiosity's sake, with today's loss and the win at UNC, where do you think we end up on Monday?

Do we stay put, move up, or fall?

CDu
02-20-2016, 02:47 PM
For curiosity's sake, with today's loss and the win at UNC, where do you think we end up on Monday?

Do we stay put, move up, or fall?

Probably about the same.

freshmanjs
02-20-2016, 07:24 PM
but it's more important because its the single most important metric to the Selection Committee.



That's not true at all.

sagegrouse
02-20-2016, 07:45 PM
FWIW, we moved up from #11 to #10 in the KenPom overall rating.

Furniture
02-20-2016, 08:00 PM
15 in AP.

uh_no
02-20-2016, 08:11 PM
15 in AP.

?

AP polls come out on monday, I thought.

sagegrouse
02-20-2016, 08:15 PM
?

AP polls come out on monday, I thought.

You're not giving Furniture credit for perfect foresight.

Doria
02-20-2016, 08:21 PM
I would expect we'd move up a little (not dramatically). We won at home against a good team, and we lost on the road but weren't blown out against a good team.

It's possible we'd move down, but I'd be kind of surprised. Even if so, I'd be shocked if it were more than 1-2 places.

freshmanjs
02-20-2016, 08:22 PM
I would expect we'd move up a little (not dramatically). We won at home against a good team, and we lost on the road but weren't blown out against a good team.

It's possible we'd move down, but I'd be kind of surprised. Even if so, I'd be shocked if it were more than 1-2 places.

I must have missed that home game...who did we play?

Doria
02-20-2016, 08:23 PM
Ha ha, yeah, you're right. Jumping the gun to our win against Carolina in two weeks.

Furniture
02-21-2016, 12:28 AM
You're not giving Furniture credit for perfect foresight.

Thanks. I can't see anyway but up. Won on game on the road. Some people say we won by a technicality but whatever it's a W that can't be taken away. Then we lose a close game on the road. Got to go up a tad!
15 ish feels right.

freshmanjs
02-21-2016, 08:05 AM
Thanks. I can't see anyway but up. Won on game on the road. Some people say we won by a technicality but whatever it's a W that can't be taken away. Then we lose a close game on the road. Got to go up a tad!
15 ish feels right.

Who is saying we won the UNC game on a technicality?

Olympic Fan
02-21-2016, 12:30 PM
Who is saying we won the UNC game on a technicality?

I had the same thought ... what technicality?

BTW: I think some of you are a tad too optimistic. I think it's more likely that we stay about the same or drop a bit. I'd be (pleasantly) surprised if we moved up to the 15 range.

freshmanjs
02-21-2016, 12:32 PM
I had the same thought ... what technicality?

BTW: I think some of you are a tad too optimistic. I think it's more likely that we stay about the same or drop a bit. I'd be (pleasantly) surprised if we moved up to the 15 range.

Something like 15 of the top 25 lost at least once this week (including 11 of the teams ranked above us). Our loss was better than many of them (road vs ranked team). So, we may be do alright in the polls.

JasonEvans
02-21-2016, 03:16 PM
Our loss was better than many of them (road vs ranked team). So, we may be do alright in the polls.

Our loss was also more forgivable because it came without a key player who will likely be back in a few days. I bet Duke moves up 3-5 spots in the polls. Everyone is talking about the grit and determination of this team as well as how well we are playing right now. KenPom is not the only metric that likes Duke a lot more than it did a few weeks ago. ESPN's BPI ranking has us #7. There are more than a few pundits who would now put Duke (with Jones) in that group of 12 or so teams who can win it all come March. If we get Amile back, I think we become one of the top 8 or so teams in the land.

-Jason "yes, my impression of this team has taken a swift turn up in the past 2 weeks" Evans

duke4ever19
02-22-2016, 01:26 PM
Up to #15 in AP and #18 in Coaches poll.

Reasonable since we did get a L on Saturday.

Doria
02-22-2016, 01:33 PM
That seems about right, especially given the mass losses of the group above us.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-22-2016, 02:00 PM
That seems about right, especially given the mass losses of the group above us.

Agreed. With two weeks of regular season followed by tournaments, we are poised nicely. If we win out, we could be a 2 seed. I think at worst we are a 4/5. Lots of room to improve our resume if we win some games we ought to and can put some W's up at the tournament.

DavidBenAkiva
02-22-2016, 02:30 PM
Agreed. With two weeks of regular season followed by tournaments, we are poised nicely. If we win out, we could be a 2 seed. I think at worst we are a 4/5. Lots of room to improve our resume if we win some games we ought to and can put some W's up at the tournament.

I don't see a 2 seed as being likely for Duke at this point. A 3 seed is probably the highest we could reach with 7 losses. There are a group of about 7-8 schools that, barring a total collapse, have a 1 or 2 seed locked up: Kansas, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Villanova, Virginia, and North Carolina are all competing for a 1 seed and Xavier, Iowa, and Arizona right on their tails. Let's talk best-case scenarios, assuming Duke wins out.

Villanova would have to lose at least twice before the NCAAs to be knocked off the 1 seed line.

Kansas and Oklahoma are almost guaranteed of at least 2 seeds at this point. Only 1 is going to win the Big 12 Tourney, so the committee won't discount a loss by either team much.

Michigan State and Iowa are also competing for a 1 seed. If they both meet in the B1G final without any bad losses during the remaining season, that's another two teams competing for no worse than a 2 seed.

UVA is almost guaranteed a 2 seed at this point. They could slip with this super tough four game stretch: Tonight at Miami, home vs. UNC, at Clemson, and then home vs. Louisville to end the regular season. Let's say they win all those games. That's a guaranteed 1 seed regardless of the NCAA Tournament. If they lose one game, they still have a legit shot at a 1 seed and almost not chance of being lower than a 2 seed. UVA would have to lose twice down the stretch and maybe in the ACC Tournament for Duke to surpass them. That's a tall order.

UNC is also in position for a 2 seed and could maybe make a case for a 1 seed with victories over UVA and Duke during the regular season. If they win out and get to the ACC Tournament finals, that's a guaranteed 2 seed at worst and borderline 1 seed.

Right there, we are talking about 7 teams for 8 spots. Duke would have to jump over Xavier, Iowa, and Arizona to get a 2 seed. Kentucky would have to falter again in the SEC, Oregon in the PAC 12, and West Virginia would have to lose at least once before the Big 12 tournament.

If the Blue Devils win these next 3 games, defeat UNC on March 5th and make it to the ACC Tournament Final, I can see a 2 seed happening. We would probably need Amile to come back and win with "style points" to do it, too. The committee might look at Duke's late season run and improving health that the losses to Utah, Clemson, Syracuse, and Notre Dame were flukes, not indicative of a fully healthy team. All things being equal, I think the most likely scenario is that Duke gets a 3 or 4 seed in the NCAAs.

CDu
02-22-2016, 02:42 PM
I don't see a 2 seed as being likely for Duke at this point. A 3 seed is probably the highest we could reach with 7 losses. There are a group of about 7-8 schools that, barring a total collapse, have a 1 or 2 seed locked up: Kansas, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Villanova, Virginia, and North Carolina are all competing for a 1 seed.

UVA is almost guaranteed a 2 seed at this point. They could slip with this super tough four game stretch: Tonight at Miami, home vs. UNC, at Clemson, and then home vs. Louisville to end the regular season. Let's say they win all those games. That's a guaranteed 1 seed regardless of the NCAA Tournament. If they lose one game, they still have a legit shot at a 1 seed and almost not chance of being lower than a 2 seed. UVA would have to lose twice down the stretch and maybe in the ACC Tournament for Duke to surpass them. That's a tall order.

UNC is also in position for a 2 seed and could maybe make a case for a 1 seed with victories over UVA and Duke during the regular season. If they win out and get to the ACC Tournament finals, that's a guaranteed 2 seed at worst and borderline 1 seed.

The committee might look at Duke's late season run and improving health that the losses to Utah, Clemson, Syracuse, and Notre Dame were flukes, not indicative of a fully healthy team. All things being equal, I think the most likely scenario is that Duke gets a 3 or 4 seed in the NCAAs.

You realize, if we win out including the ACC tournament, that UNC will have at least 7 losses and that UVa will have at least 6, right? In that scenario, given that we would have swept both UVa and UNC, I'd all but guarantee that we'd get the highest seed of the three teams.

I don't think our case for a #1 seed is strong, but if we win out and have an undefeated record with at least 3 (and likely 4 or 5) wins over UVa and UNC, I don't see any way we aren't at least a 2 seed. It's just too early and the standings are too close to be making declarative statements among the top teams in the country this year. Nobody has enough of an unblemished resume to be out of reach at this point.

tbyers11
02-22-2016, 02:49 PM
I don't see a 2 seed as being likely for Duke at this point. A 3 seed is probably the highest we could reach with 7 losses. There are a group of about 7-8 schools that, barring a total collapse, have a 1 or 2 seed locked up: Kansas, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Villanova, Virginia, and North Carolina are all competing for a 1 seed and Xavier, Iowa, and Arizona right on their tails. Let's talk best-case scenarios, assuming Duke wins out.

Villanova would have to lose at least twice before the NCAAs to be knocked off the 1 seed line.

Kansas and Oklahoma are almost guaranteed of at least 2 seeds at this point. Only 1 is going to win the Big 12 Tourney, so the committee won't discount a loss by either team much.

Michigan State and Iowa are also competing for a 1 seed. If they both meet in the B1G final without any bad losses during the remaining season, that's another two teams competing for no worse than a 2 seed.

UVA is almost guaranteed a 2 seed at this point. They could slip with this super tough four game stretch: Tonight at Miami, home vs. UNC, at Clemson, and then home vs. Louisville to end the regular season. Let's say they win all those games. That's a guaranteed 1 seed regardless of the NCAA Tournament. If they lose one game, they still have a legit shot at a 1 seed and almost not chance of being lower than a 2 seed. UVA would have to lose twice down the stretch and maybe in the ACC Tournament for Duke to surpass them. That's a tall order.

UNC is also in position for a 2 seed and could maybe make a case for a 1 seed with victories over UVA and Duke during the regular season. If they win out and get to the ACC Tournament finals, that's a guaranteed 2 seed at worst and borderline 1 seed.

Right there, we are talking about 7 teams for 8 spots. Duke would have to jump over Xavier, Iowa, and Arizona to get a 2 seed. Kentucky would have to falter again in the SEC, Oregon in the PAC 12, and West Virginia would have to lose at least once before the Big 12 tournament.

If the Blue Devils win these next 3 games, defeat UNC on March 5th and make it to the ACC Tournament Final, I can see a 2 seed happening. We would probably need Amile to come back and win with "style points" to do it, too. The committee might look at Duke's late season run and improving health that the losses to Utah, Clemson, Syracuse, and Notre Dame were flukes, not indicative of a fully healthy team. All things being equal, I think the most likely scenario is that Duke gets a 3 or 4 seed in the NCAAs.

I'm with Mtn devil, if we win out we would likely get a 2 seed. If we win out that means we definitely beat UNC once, maybe twice and we likely would have beaten Virginia or Miami once as well. UNC would have at least 7 losses. That would assume that UNC beat Virginia and won the rest of their games. If you assume that, UVa has at least 7 losses as well. And that is assuming UVa wins at Miami and home against Louisville. With all the parity this year there will be a lot of carnage in the ACC and other major conferences with most teams losing 2 games the rest of the way. I agree that there are too many ifs to see us get to a 1 seed but a 2 seed is eminently doable if we win out (Amile returning could even get us bonus points).

The if we win out scenario is the sticking point as we have 4 regular season games left (UNC being the toughest) and 3 ACC tourney games (if we win our last 4 conference games I assume we get a top 4 ACC seed). With our depth issues the 3 games in 3 days thing could be tricky.

The crux of my argument is that if we win out, nearly all the other teams (Nova and Xavier aside) will have 7 losses as well. Most of them would 6-2 or 7-1 in their final 8 games while we would be 8-0 and (12-1 in last 13) with some huge wins. It is a very tall order, but if we win out I really think we would be a 2 seed.

nmduke2001
02-22-2016, 03:01 PM
You realize, if we win out including the ACC tournament, that UNC will have at least 7 losses and that UVa will have at least 6, right? In that scenario, given that we would have swept both UVa and UNC, I'd all but guarantee that we'd get the highest seed of the three teams.

I don't think our case for a #1 seed is strong, but if we win out and have an undefeated record with at least 3 (and likely 4 or 5) wins over UVa and UNC, I don't see any way we aren't at least a 2 seed. It's just too early and the standings are too close to be making declarative statements among the top teams in the country this year. Nobody has enough of an unblemished resume to be out of reach at this point.

If this group is still short Amile, I think that an early exit from the ACC tournament might be better than making it to the Championship game. This year, I don't think a 2 seed is much better than a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament anyway. I do think a rested Duke team would be more likely to make a run than a team that gave it all to win the ACC tournament, or worse lose in the Championship game.

nocilla
02-22-2016, 03:11 PM
If this group is still short Amile, I think that an early exit from the ACC tournament might be better than making it to the Championship game. This year, I don't think a 2 seed is much better than a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament anyway. I do think a rested Duke team would be more likely to make a run than a team that gave it all to win the ACC tournament, or worse lose in the Championship game.

Even if Duke plays in the Championship game on Saturday night, they will have at least 5 days of rest, 6 if they get a Fri-Sun pod.
Is that not enough rest to make a run? If Duke has a chance to win an ACC Championship, I don't think they will ignore it just to rest.

Kedsy
02-22-2016, 03:39 PM
This year, I don't think a 2 seed is much better than a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament anyway.

In Lunardi's latest,
--the #15 seeds are: UAB (Pomeroy #110); New Mexico State (Pom #113); Weber State (Pom #135); and IPFW (Pom #136). Average = 123.5
--the #7 seeds are: Wichita (Pom #10); California (Pom #26); Providence (Pom #56); South Carolina (Pom #58). Average = 37.5
--the #3 seeds are: West Virginia (Pom #13); Miami (Pom #15); Oregon (Pom #18); Maryland (Pom #20). Average = 16.5

In that same predicted bracket,
--the #13 seeds are: Yale (Pomeroy #49); Hawaii (Pom #51); Stony Brook (Pom #57); and Akron (Pom #77). Average = 58.5
--the #5 seeds are: Purdue (Pom #16); Indiana (Pom #19); Texas A&M (Pom #21); Dayton (Pom #50). Average = 26.5
--the #1 seeds are: Villanova (Pom #1); Virginia (Pom #2); Kansas (Pom #4); Oklahoma (Pom #5). Average = 3.0

So, even taking into account the accidental outliers of Wichita and Dayton, the predicted path to the Elite Eight for the average #2 seed is 124, 38, 17; while the Elite Eight path for the average #4 seed is 59, 27, and 3. To me at least it seems the #2 seed's path would be WAY better than the #4 seed's path.

Not to mention that winning the ACC Tournament is a championship, a major goal, something every Duke team and most Duke fans cherish. No question in my mind we ought to go for it, with or without Amile.

Channing
02-22-2016, 04:00 PM
I had the same thought ... what technicality?

BTW: I think some of you are a tad too optimistic. I think it's more likely that we stay about the same or drop a bit. I'd be (pleasantly) surprised if we moved up to the 15 range.

it was a technicality ... the technicality that we had more points than them at the end. But for that one little detail, we would have lost the game :cool:

Olympic Fan
02-22-2016, 04:06 PM
Pleasantly surprised to see Duke climb five places after a loss.

I guess its only fair after several weeks of dropping despite two wins in December, that we should climb after a loss.

I'll save the seeding speculation for the appropriate thread (not that I haven't hijacked threads before ...)

Furniture
02-22-2016, 04:11 PM
it was a technicality ... the technicality that we had more points than them at the end. But for that one little detail, we would have lost the game :cool:

Gosh!
I would have to check where I saw this technicality thing because I swear I saw it somewhere. I thought that one of our fellow posters said it.

Let's just forget I put that! It was probably wine driven embellishment anyway!

Let's just focus on the fact that my crystal ball was absolutely spot on!!
15...yup!

Eakane
02-22-2016, 04:29 PM
If this group is still short Amile, I think that an early exit from the ACC tournament might be better than making it to the Championship game. This year, I don't think a 2 seed is much better than a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament anyway. I do think a rested Duke team would be more likely to make a run than a team that gave it all to win the ACC tournament, or worse lose in the Championship game.

This argument always baffles me. Only more so now that the ACC title game is on Saturday. If we win out, and play 3 games in 3 days (Th/F/Sa), then we get a minimum of 4 days rest before the first round, 5 if we play Friday. Do we really need to be rested more than that to pound a 15 or 16 seed (yeah yeah, I remember '12 and '14)? The bounce we get from winning the ACC tournament far outwighs an extra day or two of rest.

DtrainBuckshot
02-22-2016, 07:15 PM
Louisville in the AP but not in the coaches..weird how that works.

Pghdukie
02-22-2016, 07:25 PM
I think we're jumping the gun. Everyone seems to be by-passin the ACC tourn. Our NCAA seeding I believe will be cemented by league finish as well as tournament finish. Right now, we are rising in seed. A good finish all-around can only help. A bad finish means ?????

brevity
02-22-2016, 08:25 PM
...Some people say we won by a technicality but whatever it's a W that can't be taken away...


Who is saying we won the UNC game on a technicality?


I had the same thought ... what technicality?


it was a technicality ... the technicality that we had more points than them at the end. But for that one little detail, we would have lost the game :cool:


Gosh!
I would have to check where I saw this technicality thing because I swear I saw it somewhere. I thought that one of our fellow posters said it.

I was afraid of that. It was me, in last week's ACC thread (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?37413-This-Week-in-the-ACC-2-15-2-21&p=861282#post861282). But I wrote:

Oklahoma and Iowa (and Maryland) lost this week, so UNC should move up to at least #3 in both polls, with #2 Kansas still playing today. They have a strong argument after whipping Miami and losing to Duke on a technicality*.

* UNC forgot to score more points.

That's just me making a mockery of a pro-UNC position. If you got "some people say we won by a technicality" from that, I don't know how to help you.

DtrainBuckshot
02-22-2016, 08:27 PM
Our team, with or without Amile,is not built for acc tourney, IMHO. Too many games back to back with a short bemch. An early exit in the ACC may help us in the NCAA (aka the Carolina approach)

-jk
02-22-2016, 08:29 PM
Louisville in the AP but not in the coaches..weird how that works.

Not so weird: As I understand it, if a team is not post-season-eligible, the coaches poll drops 'em out altogether.

-jk

DtrainBuckshot
02-22-2016, 08:35 PM
Yes I figured that was the case; just wondering why the AP plays by a different set of rules. I think Louisville should be punished in some way, but those kids deserve a shot in the post season (even though they play dirty). I figured the coaches, as a collective group, would sympathize more than the press.

CDu
02-22-2016, 09:01 PM
With UVa's loss, it further illustrates how up in the air and fluid seeding is for the NCAAs. If we win out, we will have as few losses as UVa and UNC, and guaranteed fewer than at least one of them. We could end up anywhere from a strong 2 to a 6 or 7 seed. There are just so many meaningful games still to be played.

Faison1
02-23-2016, 12:54 AM
I'm REALLY surprised with UVA's loss to Miami. Next up is UNC...ouch!

I've got a good friend who's a big Cavs fan...he can never explain why Virginia isn't just drilling people. Usually the explanation involves coaching style of play.

With their talent, I don't understand why they have 5 losses.

(Side note, he blames every UVA loss to Duke on the refs...I get angry texts almost every time they play...it never loses it's entertainment value)

Tom B.
02-23-2016, 10:32 AM
(Side note, he blames every UVA loss to Duke on the refs...I get angry texts almost every time they play...it never loses it's entertainment value)

You might want to brace yourself for more entertainment, then.

With UVa's loss, they're now even with Duke in the loss column. If it stays that way, we'd have the tiebreaker over them for ACC Tournament seeding, by virtue of beating them head-to-head. Prepare for a deluge of Internet idiocy if Grayson's tippie-toe game-winner against UVa is the difference that gives us a double-bye while they get just a single-bye. :)

sagegrouse
02-23-2016, 10:48 AM
Yes I figured that was the case; just wondering why the AP plays by a different set of rules. I think Louisville should be punished in some way, but those kids deserve a shot in the post season (even though they play dirty). I figured the coaches, as a collective group, would sympathize more than the press.

I hear you, but as I understand it .... A UL basketball staff member has apparently admitted to UL and NCAA investigators that he provided "girls" to players, recruits and fathers of same in multiple prior years. This is a stunningly outrageous violation of NCAA rules, school rules, and the laws of Kentucky and the US. The NCAA will conclude that the UL team is unworthy to participate in the NCAA tournament for a goodly period; U of L, which conducted the investigation side by side with NCAA investigators (that's the process), decided, as a gesture of good faith, to withdraw from this year's tournament, hoping for a better long-term deal.

Now, the UL players are certainly getting punished as well; I don't suppose we will ever know which ones participated in the illegal activities. People who signed up for Louisville signed up for the good and the bad. I don't have much sympathy for the Louisville players in these circumstances.