MBB: Duke vs the Morally Repugnant Bastards Down the Road (Wed, 9pm, ESPN/ACC)

[JBDuke]

This is the Pre-Game and In-Game Thread. (I ran out of room in the thread title field for some reason.) Duke visits the Dump on the Hump this Wednesday hoping to continue its winning streak versus ranked ACC opponents.

If you're in the broadcast area for the regional ACC network, you can watch the game there. Here is the list of affiliates carrying the game on Wednesday: http://www.theacc.com/news/acc-basketball-on-acc-network-duke-at-north-carolina-02-17-2016

If you're not in that broadcast area, ESPN will have the game.

The game is at 9 pm ET.

Lots more previews and stuff to come, I'm sure.

[kmspeaks]

Best. Thread title. Ever. 9f

[Indoor66]

As I said in another thread: Go to hell cheaters, go to hell.:mad::cool:

[CameronBlue]

I'd really like to come here and give UNC its due. Some of their players are easily likable, their team is formidable and it will take an incredibly strong performance by Duke to remain in it until the end. But any measure of civility toward them, even isolated to game circumstances seems to just legitimize what those cheaters did for almost 20 years. They're nothing to me. Screw em. Go Duke!

[awhom111]

This is the Pre-Game and In-Game Thread. (I ran out of room in the thread title field for some reason.) Duke visits the Dump on the Hump this Wednesday hoping to continue its winning streak versus ranked ACC opponents.

If you're in the broadcast area for the regional ACC network, you can watch the game there. Here is the list of affiliates carrying the game on Wednesday: http://www.theacc.com/news/acc-basketball-on-acc-network-duke-at-north-carolina-02-17-2016

If you're not in that broadcast area, ESPN will have the game.

The game is at 9 pm ET.

Lots more previews and stuff to come, I'm sure.

You beat me on starting this thread by a little bit.

Remember that there are no blackouts anymore, so those in ACC Network places can watch on either their local affiliate or on ESPN.

Everybody can also watch online via the ACC website here:
http://theacc.co/MBB16live0217

[jv001]

If old roy can overcome his vertigo and stay on the bench for the entire game, we have a good shot at winning. That's what I'm praying for. I don't want anyone on the Cheat team to get injured or become ill and that includes old roy. GoDuke!

[OldPhiKap]

Best. Thread title. Ever. 9f

Respectfully disagree. It is an insult to morally repugnant bastards everywhere to be compared to UNC.

[ThrowItAround]

Duke 127 UNC 12

[gep]

Duke will get ALL the calls... as they ALWAYS do :cool: So shouldn't be a problem... GO DUKE!!!!!

[cspan37421]

Respectfully disagree. It is an insult to morally repugnant bastards everywhere to be compared to UNC.

LOL!
Can't spork you, so here's a reply.

Yeah, title should say "amoral former rival" instead.

[Newton_14]

I'd really like to come here and give UNC its due. None of their players are likable, their team is overrated and it will take an incredibly strong performance by them to prevent Duke from taking it's 11th win in the last 14 games at the Dump on The HumpDome. But any measure of civility toward them, even isolated to game circumstances seems to just legitimize what those cheaters did for almost 20 years. They're nothing to me. Screw em. Go Duke!

There, fixed it for ya! :)

[jipops]

Can we get one thing straightened out here? Is it uncCHeat or uncheat? I always thought it was the additional CH to go in place of Chapel Hill. In any case, I find it simpler to just refer to them as the "cheats". Maybe there should be a paper class on this. The naming convention needs to be made official.

[CameronBlue]

There, fixed it for ya! :)

Thanks! Sometimes I forget the value of a good editor. And I owned a newspaper!

[Devilwin]

Let's just go there and beat them..The rest will take care of itself.

[Indoor66]

Can we get one thing straightened out here? Is it uncCHeat or uncheat? I always thought it was the additional CH to go in place of Chapel Hill. In any case, I find it simpler to just refer to them as the "cheats". Maybe there should be a paper class on this. The naming convention needs to be made official.

unCheat if the preferred spelling.

[OldPhiKap]

unCheat if the preferred spelling.

My preferred spelling is blocked by the "you are a real wanker for saying this" filter.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Let's keep this mojo going, boys and girls. We are coming up and they are slipping. How about another 30 point drubbing to announce our return?

[Kedsy]

Let's keep this mojo going, boys and girls. We are coming up and they are slipping. How about another 30 point drubbing to announce our return?

I'll take a three point drubbing, so long as it's a W for Duke.

[NYBri]

Respectfully disagree. It is an insult to morally repugnant bastards everywhere to be compared to UNC.

Best. Response. To. The. Best. Thread. Title. Ever.

[Olympic Fan]

After three straight subpar performances (losses at Louisville and Notre Dame and a very close call win at Boston College), the Cheats bounced back with a strong performance Sunday with a 21-point victory at home over good-but-not-great Pittsburgh.

The most disturbing sign was that the worst 3-point shooting team in the ACC (and one of the nation's 10 worst), hit 8-of-15 3-pointers against Pitt.

If they shoot that well from outside the arch, they will be very tough to beat.

BTW: Pomeroy projects an 86-80 UNC win.

[Newton_14]

After three straight subpar performances (losses at Louisville and Notre Dame and a very close call win at Boston College), the Cheats bounced back with a strong performance Sunday with a 21-point victory at home over good-but-not-great Pittsburgh.

The most disturbing sign was that the worst 3-point shooting team in the ACC (and one of the nation's 10 worst), hit 8-of-15 3-pointers against Pitt.

If they shoot that well from outside the arch, they will be very tough to beat.

BTW: Pomeroy projects an 86-80 UNC win.

But isn't that kind of the story for this group of cheats? really over the past 3 seasons? On the occasional day when they make a lot of 3's they look like a dominant team, and win handily. But, they just do not do it very often. Yes if they shoot like that against us, we lose, however, if they don't, we will have a great chance to win. I am almost glad they shot like that today. It lowers the odds of them doing that against us. They may very well light us up from 3, but looking at their games this year and last, they just do not make a lot of 3's very often.

[MarkD83]

But isn't that kind of the story for this group of cheats? really over the past 3 seasons? On the occasional day when they make a lot of 3's they look like a dominant team, and win handily. But, they just do not do it very often. Yes if they shoot like that against us, we lose, however, if they don't, we will have a great chance to win. I am almost glad they shot like that today. It lowers the odds of them doing that against us. They may very well light us up from 3, but looking at their games this year and last, they just do not make a lot of 3's very often.

And to continue down that same logic train regarding 3's....Luke had an off-night against UVA so he is due for a "lights out" 3 point exhibition.

[Newton_14]

And to continue down that same logic train regarding 3's...Luke had an off-night against UVA so he is due for a "lights out" 3 point exhibition.
Totally agree!

Here is my current list of positives/negatives-worries

Positives
- Unlike UVA who had Brogdon who could defend/shut down either Grayson or Brandon, but no second guy.... uncheat has no one that can defend either Allen or Ingram at the level Brogdon did. Ingram will destroy Johnson or Hicks or Jackson. Especially if Ingram is playing at a high level as he is capable.
- They will have to put Paige on Allen, which will take a ton of energy from Paige, and I'm not sure Paige can effectively keep Grayson out of the lane. Now, Grayson will face similar problems defending Paige, so they could cancel each other out, but I will take that if the trio of Ingram, Jones, and Kennard are feeling it on the offensive end. (as well as Thornton... possible, but mainly all I want from him is great defense and a solid floor game with good decisions and few turnovers)
- uncheat has a terrible time defending ball screens out top, especially if Meeks is in the game. ESPN did a special on that last week with JWill and Seth G. It was telling. MP3 could be a big factor on offense rolling/slipping those screens
- uncheat does not defend the 3 point line well, and we have 4 guys that can really make a team pay for leaving them with good looks from 3 (We got almost zero open looks from 3 against UVA. Wednesday could possibly feel like Christmas coming off the UVA 3-line defense. We will see. No guarantees but cause for optoemism!
- Duke has played really well over there since 1999 winning 10 of the last 13 games which is just unbelieveable if you think about it.

Negatives/Worries
- They could easily kill us on the offensive glass and have a case where there best offense is to just get a shot up and then score off the miss with great offensive rebounding
- They could easily get MP3 in foul trouble early. Marshall is going to have to play really really smart on defense. Think about it. Have there been any games where MP3 picked up two early fouls and then had to sit a long stretch in the first half? Nope. We have been really fortunate there. He has had foul trouble in second halves but none in first halves that I recall. Someone correct me if I am wrong. If he gets 2 early in this game, the way Chase plays and gets ref'd, he could rack up 3 to 4 fouls in a short time forcing us to either go very small with Ingram at the 5, or bring in Obi or Vrank. Marshall has to stay out of foul trouble for us to win this game.
- While our man to man defense has drastically improved, it will be tested hard in this game. We may have to use zone, especially if uncheat is bricking it from 3.
- Depth. For sure Ol Roy will run players in an out keeping his kids fresh and trying to wear down our 6 guys. They have the depth to do that.
- Fast break Defense. uncheat will look to push it at every opportunity and our fast break defense has not been good this season. We have to rebound well and find away to slow down their breaks and force them to work for points in halfcourt sets, shortening the game. We desperately need to shorten this game to limit possessions and manage fatigue.


They will be favored and should be. They are a veteran team that is deep. One wild card is Justin Jackson. When he plays well they rise a notch or two. When he plays bad they can look very average.

We can win this game for sure. We will just have to play really well and really smart, and play man to man defense at the level we have this past week.

Go Duke! Send the cheating and fraud institution to hell where they belong.

[gep]

Totally agree!

Here is my current list of positives/negatives-worries

Positives ...
- They will have to put Paige on Allen, which will take a ton of energy from Paige, and I'm not sure Paige can effectively keep Grayson out of the lane. Now, Grayson will face similar problems defending Paige, so they could cancel each other out, but I will take that if the trio of Ingram, Jones, and Kennard are feeling it on the offensive end. (as well as Thornton... possible, but mainly all I want from him is great defense and a solid floor game with good decisions and few turnovers)
...


OK... I'm definitely a fan and no expert. If Paige defends Grayson, why does Grayson "have to" guard Paige. Can't Derryck take Paige on the defensive end? I think Derryck slowing down, or even shutting down Paige will be huge.

[CDu]

OK... I'm definitely a fan and no expert. If Paige defends Grayson, why does Grayson "have to" guard Paige. Can't Derryck take Paige on the defensive end? I think Derryck slowing down, or even shutting down Paige will be huge.

Yep, Thornton could be asked to guard Paige, allowing Allen to guard Britt/Berry.

[Bob Green]

Looking at the head-to-head match-ups:

1. Derryck Thornton vs. Joel Berry II: Thornton has really progressed in recent games especially in regard to his on ball defense. Carolina will look to push the tempo so it will be up to Thornton to utilize his quickness to stop the ball. Berry is the distributor (4.2 apg) so step one to disrupting Carolina's offense is checking Berry. Thornton has been erratic at times, which isn't unexpected from a freshman so he will really need to play within himself on the big stage. Advantage: Carolina.

2. Grayson Allen vs. Marcus Paige: Is Paige over his shooting slump? He was 3 for 6 on 3PT FGs against Pitt on Saturday. Paige has been in a horrific slump lately and if it continues Wednesday night the onetime ACC POY candidate could be a liability for the Tar Heels because he is going to have a hard time on defense checking Grayson Allen. Paige is a solid off ball defender but Allen is going to take the ball right at him attacking the rim, if Paige backs off a step Allen will fire away from the perimeter. IMO, Paige cannot effectively guard Allen. On defense, Allen must ensure Paige does not get open looks from the perimeter. Advantage: Duke.

3. Matt Jones vs. Justin Jackson: Jackson might be the weak link in Carolina's starting five. He is talented but lacks strength. Matt Jones is a physical player who will look to exploit Jackson's lack of physicality on both ends of the court. Do not be surprised if Jones switches over and guards Brice Johnson at times with Ingram covering Jackson. Advantage: Duke.

4. Brandon Ingram vs. Brice Johnson: This could be the highlight match-up of the game. Senior Johnson certainly has the experience advantage over freshman Ingram, with Ingram having the versatility advantage over Johnson. Ingram handling the ball and playing on the perimeter will pull Johnson outside keeping him off the defensive glass. On defense, as stated above, I expect Matt Jones will spend some time guarding Johnson with Ingram switching onto Justin Jackson. Johnson feeds off of positive plays, while sulking when things do not go his way. Duke needs to frustrate Johnson early and often. Advantage: Toss up.

5. Marshall Plumlee vs. Kennedy Meeks: Meeks has a talent advantage over Plumlee, but Plumlee has a work ethic advantage over Meeks. Plumlee is going to play hard every second he is on the court, while Meeks will coast at times looking for opportunities to exploit instead of working to create an opportunity. Foul trouble is the big unknown with this match-up. Duke cannot afford to have Plumlee sitting on the bench. Advantage: Toss up.

Bench: Duke has Luke Kennard plus five minutes of Chase Jeter, while Carolina has Isiah Hicks, Theo Pinson, Nate Britt, Joel James and several more (Luke Maye, Kenny Williams, Stilman White) Coach Williams will situational play for a minute or two. Advantage: Carolina.

So over six match-ups, I grade Duke on top twice, Carolina on top twice, with two toss-ups. It should be another great game. I'm sure I have overlooked a couple of obvious things so I am standing by to have the DBR faithful point out the weaknesses in my analysis.

[OldPhiKap]

Looking at the head-to-head match-ups:

1. Derryck Thornton vs. Joel Berry II: Thornton has really progressed in recent games especially in regard to his on ball defense. Carolina will look to push the tempo so it will be up to Thornton to utilize his quickness to stop the ball. Berry is the distributor (4.2 apg) so step one to disrupting Carolina's offense is checking Berry. Thornton has been erratic at times, which isn't unexpected from a freshman so he will really need to play within himself on the big stage. Advantage: Carolina.

2. Grayson Allen vs. Marcus Paige: Is Paige over his shooting slump? He was 3 for 6 on 3PT FGs against Pitt on Saturday. Paige has been in a horrific slump lately and if it continues Wednesday night the onetime ACC POY candidate could be a liability for the Tar Heels because he is going to have a hard time on defense checking Grayson Allen. Paige is a solid off ball defender but Allen is going to take the ball right at him attacking the rim, if Paige backs off a step Allen will fire away from the perimeter. IMO, Paige cannot effectively guard Allen. On defense, Allen must ensure Paige does not get open looks from the perimeter. Advantage: Duke.

3. Matt Jones vs. Justin Jackson: Jackson might be the weak link in Carolina's starting five. He is talented but lacks strength. Matt Jones is a physical player who will look to exploit Jackson's lack of physicality on both ends of the court. Do not be surprised if Jones switches over and guards Brice Johnson at times with Ingram covering Jackson. Advantage: Duke.

4. Brandon Ingram vs. Brice Johnson: This could be the highlight match-up of the game. Senior Johnson certainly has the experience advantage over freshman Ingram, with Ingram having the versatility advantage over Johnson. Ingram handling the ball and playing on the perimeter will pull Johnson outside keeping him off the defensive glass. On defense, as stated above, I expect Matt Jones will spend some time guarding Johnson with Ingram switching onto Justin Jackson. Johnson feeds off of positive plays, while sulking when things do not go his way. Duke needs to frustrate Johnson early and often. Advantage: Toss up.

5. Marshall Plumlee vs. Kennedy Meeks: Meeks has a talent advantage over Plumlee, but Plumlee has a work ethic advantage over Meeks. Plumlee is going to play hard every second he is on the court, while Meeks will coast at times looking for opportunities to exploit instead of working to create an opportunity. Foul trouble is the big unknown with this match-up. Duke cannot afford to have Plumlee sitting on the bench. Advantage: Toss up.

Bench: Duke has Luke Kennard plus five minutes of Chase Jeter, while Carolina has Isiah Hicks, Theo Pinson, Nate Britt, Joel James and several more (Luke Maye, Kenny Williams, Stilman White) Coach Williams will situational play for a minute or two. Advantage: Carolina.

So over six match-ups, I grade Duke on top twice, Carolina on top twice, with two toss-ups. It should be another great game. I'm sure I have overlooked a couple of obvious things so I am standing by to have the DBR faithful point out the weaknesses in my analysis.

I am really concerned about Carolina's depth, especially inside. My guess is we play a fair amount of zone (still cannot get comfortable typing that phrase) to slow the game down. But we have to compete on the boards or we will get killed in this game, and zone leaves the backside exposed.

This is a big challenge.

[Newton_14]

OK... I'm definitely a fan and no expert. If Paige defends Grayson, why does Grayson "have to" guard Paige. Can't Derryck take Paige on the defensive end? I think Derryck slowing down, or even shutting down Paige will be huge.


Yep, Thornton could be asked to guard Paige, allowing Allen to guard Britt/Berry.

Oh for sure K could go with Thornton on Paige and Grayson on Berry. I just don't think he will, at least not to start with. I think K will want Thornton up in Berry's grill trying to kill the snake by cutting off the head. With that, I fully expect to see Grayson on Paige and vice versa. Something to watch for.

When Thornton rests, Kennard will come in, and I will be expecting Jones to switch over to Paige, Grayson on Berry, and Kennard on Jackson. But ol roy subs in so often, there is no telling who might be on the floor. The good news is, our 4 guards can defend most anybody, and from a big/tall wing perspective, Jones/Allen/Kennard can all defend any wing big or small that is on the floor. That is a big luxury in my opinion.

[CDu]

Newton_14 did a great job of laying out the positives/concerns for this game, of which I agree. Their depth and offensive rebounding prowess are a huge concern. Also of concern is that, unlike some of our recent opponents, they REALLY like to utilize their post guys offensively. That's going to put Plumlee and Ingram in more positions to commit fouls, which we simply can't have. It is really going to be a high-wire act for them to stay on the floor while also not being a turnstile defensively.

Frontcourt: UNC-CH plays a more traditional (read: 1980s style) lineup. They will have two bigs on the floor at all times, generally with a decent-sized SF as well. They will rotate 10-11 guys, including as many as 5 bigs. The starters are Meeks and Johnson. Meeks came to UNC on the Nigel Dixon/Beejay Anya diet. He was, to put it nicely, doughy. He's worked very hard to slim down, though, and as a junior he is now a reasonable 260ish. He's still very slow defensively, and can be abused in high-pick-and-roll action. Meeks is a terrific rebounder and a very good scorer with a well-polished post game. Johnson is sort of the other end of the spectrum. He's long and lean (though he has gotten stronger). Johnson has been a high-talent, low-motor guy for a while, but things have really clicked for him this year. He's averaging 16 and 10 in just 26 minutes per game this year. He scores in a variety of ways out to about 15 feet, and is a real handful. That's going to be a really tough assignment for Ingram, though the converse is also true as he can't defend Ingram at all. The third primary big in the rotation is Isiah Hicks. Hicks is a very athletic and fairly strong PF with a high motor. He's going to step in very nicely next year as a senior for Johnson. It's crazy given his recruiting ranking that he's just now finding his game, but that's kind of the way it works at UNC I guess. He gets a lot of energy baskets for the Heels. After Hicks, the dropoff in quality is steep. Joel James is a behemoth, but has no basketball skills whatsoever. He's just a banger inside with a penchant for contact (legal and otherwise). He will play anywhere from 3 to 15 minutes, and they will be uninspiring minutes. Finally, Luke Maye sometimes comes in purely as minutes-filler. He's undersized and underskilled.

Wings: The Heels have a pair of talented but underperforming wings. Jackson is the starter at SF, and he has terrific talent that hasn't fully clicked at college. He was a good shooter in high school, but that has yet to translate to the pros. But he's 6'8", and in some ways is like a poor man's Ingram. He's versatile, and when the 3 falls for him he's a dynamite player. It's just that the 3 rarely falls for him so far in college. Behind him is Theo Pinson. Pinson is a fantastic athlete, but has yet to figure out how to translate that athleticism into basketball production. He's a horrible shooter, though he does most other things reasonably solidly.

Guards: For as big as the Heels are in the frontcourt, they're oddly small at guard. They rotate three guys at PG/SG, all of whom can handle the ball and none of who are over 6'1". The historical headliner here is Marcus Paige, who we are all familiar with. However, oddly, he hasn't really been the Heels' best guard this year. That honor perhaps goes to Joel Berry, who out performs Paige (albeit slightly) in FG%, FT%, rebounds per game, assists per game, and steals per game, and is only a tad shy in points per game. Paige came to UNC as a PG, but has basically morphed into a shooting guard. He peaked as a sophomore and has gone downhill ever since. He'll probably make All-ACC again, though he really shouldn't be as much a given there as he will be. Paige is a smart player and can score in bunches, and when his 3ball is falling he's a handful. He's a good defender, with solid quickness and awareness. But he's very skinny, which could be problematic against our stronger guards. Berry is a very quick, very strong, versatile PG. He does a lot of the same things that Paige does, and now he's the guy running the show. Like Paige, he's still a score-first PG, and he's very good in transtion. But he leads the team in assists, and is really developing. He should get as much consideration for All-ACC as Paige, but I suspect he'll fall behind Paige in voting. Behind those two is Nate Britt. Britt brings very little to the table other than solid shooting and defense and few glaring mistakes. He's purely a game manager at PG, not an impact player at all. But given that the Heels have two playmakers in Berry and Paige, he can get away with just being a non-negative.

So we'll be quite undersized in the frontcourt but at a decent size advantage on the perimeter. The big concern will be the lack of depth (they'll play anywhere from 9 to 11 guys, we will play at most 7), UNC-CH's desire to run (which could wear us down), and their desire to use the post which could put Plumlee and/or Ingram in foul trouble.

If we can avoid foul trouble, avoid fatigue, and hit our 3s, we stand a good chance. If we struggle with either of those and/or allow UNC-CH to dominate inside, we will have a lot of trouble winning. This should be a high-scoring game, as both teams are better offensively than defensively. I'd expect it to be in the high-70s or 80s. Hopefully our guys are hitting their shots!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

My gut says this game comes down to rebounds. UNC has more big bodies than we do and miss a LOT of shots (yesterday notwithstanding). If we can get Ingram crashing the glass like he did against UVa, have MP3 play like the confident man he has blossomed into this year, and get a handful of boards from Kennard/Allen following shots... I like our chances.

I want to win every game of course (I'm a fan afterall) but I REALLY want to win this one Wednesday. If we can hold court this week, we might look at the internet a week from today and see our boys ranked ABOVE the wankers from down the road.

[BD80]

Umm. Interesting breakdowns, but may be forgetting an important element ... COACHING!

We've got the best coach in all of sports on the bench. Hell, our assistant coach is better than their coach (although their assistant coach may also be better than their coach).

You guys also seem to be forgetting their home court advantage ... oh, right ... Nevermind.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

My gut says this game comes down to rebounds. UNC has more big bodies than we do and miss a LOT of shots (yesterday notwithstanding). If we can get Ingram crashing the glass like he did against UVa, have MP3 play like the confident man he has blossomed into this year, and get a handful of boards from Kennard/Allen following shots... I like our chances.

I want to win every game of course (I'm a fan afterall) but I REALLY want to win this one Wednesday. If we can hold court this week, we might look at the internet a week from today and see our boys ranked ABOVE the wankers from down the road.
Agree. And think specifically that defensive rebounding is the key. We have to keep them from getting second chance points. If we win this battle, I think we win, period.

[oldnavy]

I don't think UNC can keep Allen or Thornton out of the lane, but my concern is what Allen or Thornton can do once in the lane.

UNC is notorious for collapsing and playing help defense. If we can power through the bigs and finish that would be great. Allen had some trouble doing this with UK if I remember correctly.

However, if we can get into the lane, draw fouls, finish, OR (this is key IMO) kick it out to an open three point shooter AND we can knock down the shots... well we will be fine.

If we get in the lane and get stuffed or have TO's we will be in trouble.

It would be a perfect game for Marshall to exploit the inside help tendencies of UNC's bigs. If he can stay on the baseline and then pop open for a dump off, AND finish... he could score 20 points in this game. I'm not predicting that, but the opportunities will be there I believe.

[Doria]

Good analysis above. This will be a tough game, and it's also a tough game to forecast. A lot of if's, for me.

- Carolina has not been a good 3-point shooting team this season. But this belies the fact that they are absolutely capable of making a bunch of 3-pointers. We have to hope the bad Carolina team shows up shooting, and we need to be able to hit ours, conversely. We missed a lot of open shots versus UVA, particularly in the first half. We've got to make those Wednesday.

- We were able to gut it out on the boards against NCSU's bigger frontcourt and against UVA's team rebounding. I don't expect we can out-rebound Carolina, but we must keep it close and, ideally, hit shots to limit both rebounds and (their) transition points.

- As others said, we simply cannot afford foul trouble. That said, we also cannot allow ourselves to play soft, in hopes of avoiding said foul trouble. Hopefully, the good defense Duke shows up again.

- We're going to be tired, no matter what defense we play. We just have to find a way to play through it. The good news is that any combo of 5 we put on the floor is probably more talented than any 5 they field. But everyone needs to show up for us and give positive effort.

Carolina's biggest flaw this season, from what I've seen (and I readily admit I watch them as little as possible, unless they're losing), has been themselves. Their conferences losses have been largely due to one or more of their starters inexplicably looking like they'd rather be elsewhere. No one has been immune to this effect, though I'd highlight Jackson, Meeks, and to a lesser degree Johnson. Meeks gets a bit of an asterisk because to me, he hasn't looked the same since coming back from injury.

Regardless, it's extremely important to limit the productiveness of Johnson and Jackson, at a minimum. They are two players who are very capable of having big games, and if they can't get up for the Duke game, in Chapel Hill, they might as well just quit the team. I expect high energy from them, so Duke needs to do whatever we can to frustrate them. Both have shown a propensity to get frustrated and play themselves out of games. We need to help them do that, while our players must continue to contribute, even if shots aren't falling (Grayson's defense and assists versus UVA while Brogdon was on him come to mind).

Certainly, I expect we'll get an assist from Roy, who will continue to substitute, even when his guys are playing well as a unit.

Go Duke!

[oldnavy]

Good analysis above. This will be a tough game, and it's also a tough game to forecast. A lot of if's, for me.

- Carolina has not been a good 3-point shooting team this season. But this belies the fact that they are absolutely capable of making a bunch of 3-pointers. We have to hope the bad Carolina team shows up shooting, and we need to be able to hit ours, conversely. We missed a lot of open shots versus UVA, particularly in the first half. We've got to make those Wednesday.

- We were able to gut it out on the boards against NCSU's bigger frontcourt and against UVA's team rebounding. I don't expect we can out-rebound Carolina, but we must keep it close and, ideally, hit shots to limit both rebounds and (their) transition points.

- As others said, we simply cannot afford foul trouble. That said, we also cannot allow ourselves to play soft, in hopes of avoiding said foul trouble. Hopefully, the good defense Duke shows up again.

- We're going to be tired, no matter what defense we play. We just have to find a way to play through it. The good news is that any combo of 5 we put on the floor is probably more talented than any 5 they field. But everyone needs to show up for us and give positive effort.

Carolina's biggest flaw this season, from what I've seen (and I readily admit I watch them as little as possible, unless they're losing), has been themselves. Their conferences losses have been largely due to one or more of their starters inexplicably looking like they'd rather be elsewhere. No one has been immune to this effect, though I'd highlight Jackson, Meeks, and to a lesser degree Johnson. Meeks gets a bit of an asterisk because to me, he hasn't looked the same since coming back from injury.

Regardless, it's extremely important to limit the productiveness of Johnson and Jackson, at a minimum. They are two players who are very capable of having big games, and if they can't get up for the Duke game, in Chapel Hill, they might as well just quit the team. I expect high energy from them, so Duke needs to do whatever we can to frustrate them. Both have shown a propensity to get frustrated and play themselves out of games. We need to help them do that, while our players must continue to contribute, even if shots aren't falling (Grayson's defense and assists versus UVA while Brogdon was on him come to mind).

Certainly, I expect we'll get an assist from Roy, who will continue to substitute, even when his guys are playing well as a unit.

Go Duke!

I don't think this will be a problem. In the 45 years of Duke/UNC games that I can remember watching, I believe I have only seen one game in which the UNC players looked uninspired and that was around the turn of the century. I don't remember which game specifically, but I remember being in Okinawa (1999-2002) watching on TV and saying to my wife... "UNC has quit!"... I remember that distinctly because it was the one and only time I can recall UNC giving up in a Duke game.

[Doria]

I don't think this will be a problem. In the 45 years of Duke/UNC games that I can remember watching, I believe I have only seen one game in which the UNC players looked uninspired and that was around the turn of the century. I don't remember which game specifically, but I remember being in Okinawa (1999-2002) watching on TV and saying to my wife... "UNC has quit!"... I remember that distinctly because it was the one and only time I can recall UNC giving up in a Duke game.

I think my inflection on that passage wasn't quite what I intended. I really meant to (agreeing with you) imply that I doubt Carolina has any problems getting up for this game. My connotation didn't really come through, though. Yeah, in my lifetime, I cannot recall either team looking uninspired in these games, even when teams were having otherwise bad seasons.

[Tripping William]

I don't think this will be a problem. In the 45 years of Duke/UNC games that I can remember watching, I believe I have only seen one game in which the UNC players looked uninspired and that was around the turn of the century. I don't remember which game specifically, but I remember being in Okinawa (1999-2002) watching on TV and saying to my wife... "UNC has quit!"... I remember that distinctly because it was the one and only time I can recall UNC giving up in a Duke game.


I think my inflection on that passage wasn't quite what I intended. I really meant to (agreeing with you) imply that I doubt Carolina has any problems getting up for this game. My connotation didn't really come through, though. Yeah, in my lifetime, I cannot recall either team looking uninspired in these games, even when teams were having otherwise bad seasons.

I nominate the goings-on in Cameron on March 6, 2010. Final tally: 82-50.

That game was exceptional, of course. In more ways than one. :)

[oldnavy]

I nominate the goings-on in Cameron on March 6, 2010. Final tally: 82-50.

That game was exceptional, of course. In more ways than one. :)

I haven't had the chance to get back to a UNC game since I left for the Navy in 1989, but I do remember watching it on TV!

But even in that game UNC seemed to be trying the whole time (or at least until the final few minutes), we just overpowered them!

[Tripping William]

I haven't had the chance to get back to a UNC game since I left for the Navy in 1989, but I do remember watching it on TV!

But even in that game UNC seemed to be trying the whole time (or at least until the final few minutes), we just overpowered them!

We opened with a 23-7 run, led 53-26 at halftime ("more than dou-ble" clap, clap, clap/clap/clap), and it never got closer than 26 after the break. At intermission, Digger Phelps and Bob Knight joked about their hunting hats, and Hubert Davis was rendered near-speechless about how the team representing his alma mater had failed to compete in the first 20 minutes.

[Olympic Fan]

Allow me a small rant:

I turned over to ESPN Classic this morning, expecting to see a run of Duke-UNC games.

I did -- they are showing five straight "classic" Duke-UNC games Monday.

But ALL FIVE are UNC wins.

I'll be checking tomorrow to see if we get a run of Duke wins ...

[oldnavy]

Allow me a small rant:

I turned over to ESPN Classic this morning, expecting to see a run of Duke-UNC games.

I did -- they are showing five straight "classic" Duke-UNC games Monday.

But ALL FIVE are UNC wins.

I'll be checking tomorrow to see if we get a run of Duke wins ...

Not surprising... they like to spin the dialog whenever they can.

I did not realize that we have actually won 10 of the last 13 in CH... Is that accurate??

[Olympic Fan]

Not surprising... they like to spin the dialog whenever they can.

I did not realize that we have actually won 10 of the last 13 in CH... Is that accurate??

No, it's 10 of 13 overall.

Duke is 10-6 in Chapel Hill in this century.

[oldnavy]

No, it's 10 of 13 overall.

Duke is 10-6 in Chapel Hill in this century.

OK, thanks... I just did some digging because that sounded crazy... I must have misread the graphic on ESPN last night.

Still, 10 out of 13 isn't bad at all!!

[-jk]

I don't think this will be a problem. In the 45 years of Duke/UNC games that I can remember watching, I believe I have only seen one game in which the UNC players looked uninspired and that was around the turn of the century. I don't remember which game specifically, but I remember being in Okinawa (1999-2002) watching on TV and saying to my wife... "UNC has quit!"... I remember that distinctly because it was the one and only time I can recall UNC giving up in a Duke game.


We tend to have a unifying effect on them pretty much whatever else is going on.

-jk

[cptnflash]

Great points made by several other posters earlier in this thread. Don't have much to add in terms of strategy or motivation, so...

Let's settle for this: UNC has a better team than us this year. Kenpom has us as a 6 point underdog, which is totally fair. The final Vegas line will probably be within a point or so of that. Johnson/Meeks/Hicks/James vs. MP3 is a totally unfair fight. If we win at their place, it will be a fairly significant upset.

That being said, we can win if A) we shoot well from the perimeter, B) we gang rebound on the defensive end, and C) Ol' Roy does Ol' Rol stuff like not playing his best players the most minutes and saving his timeouts like they're worth double bonus points at the end of the game.

The good news is, all of those things are possible. Let's do Duke!!

[MChambers]

Carolina's biggest flaw this season, from what I've seen (and I readily admit I watch them as little as possible, unless they're losing), has been themselves. Their conferences losses have been largely due to one or more of their starters inexplicably looking like they'd rather be elsewhere. No one has been immune to this effect, though I'd highlight Jackson, Meeks, and to a lesser degree Johnson. Meeks gets a bit of an asterisk because to me, he hasn't looked the same since coming back from injury.

Ademola Okulaja would agree.

[rasputin]

Ademola Okulaja would agree.

clap clap

[dukelifer]

Newton_14 did a great job of laying out the positives/concerns for this game, of which I agree. Their depth and offensive rebounding prowess are a huge concern. Also of concern is that, unlike some of our recent opponents, they REALLY like to utilize their post guys offensively. That's going to put Plumlee and Ingram in more positions to commit fouls, which we simply can't have. It is really going to be a high-wire act for them to stay on the floor while also not being a turnstile defensively.

Frontcourt: UNC-CH plays a more traditional (read: 1980s style) lineup. They will have two bigs on the floor at all times, generally with a decent-sized SF as well. They will rotate 10-11 guys, including as many as 5 bigs. The starters are Meeks and Johnson. Meeks came to UNC on the Nigel Dixon/Beejay Anya diet. He was, to put it nicely, doughy. He's worked very hard to slim down, though, and as a junior he is now a reasonable 260ish. He's still very slow defensively, and can be abused in high-pick-and-roll action. Meeks is a terrific rebounder and a very good scorer with a well-polished post game. Johnson is sort of the other end of the spectrum. He's long and lean (though he has gotten stronger). Johnson has been a high-talent, low-motor guy for a while, but things have really clicked for him this year. He's averaging 16 and 10 in just 26 minutes per game this year. He scores in a variety of ways out to about 15 feet, and is a real handful. That's going to be a really tough assignment for Ingram, though the converse is also true as he can't defend Ingram at all. The third primary big in the rotation is Isiah Hicks. Hicks is a very athletic and fairly strong PF with a high motor. He's going to step in very nicely next year as a senior for Johnson. It's crazy given his recruiting ranking that he's just now finding his game, but that's kind of the way it works at UNC I guess. He gets a lot of energy baskets for the Heels. After Hicks, the dropoff in quality is steep. Joel James is a behemoth, but has no basketball skills whatsoever. He's just a banger inside with a penchant for contact (legal and otherwise). He will play anywhere from 3 to 15 minutes, and they will be uninspiring minutes. Finally, Luke Maye sometimes comes in purely as minutes-filler. He's undersized and underskilled.

Wings: The Heels have a pair of talented but underperforming wings. Jackson is the starter at SF, and he has terrific talent that hasn't fully clicked at college. He was a good shooter in high school, but that has yet to translate to the pros. But he's 6'8", and in some ways is like a poor man's Ingram. He's versatile, and when the 3 falls for him he's a dynamite player. It's just that the 3 rarely falls for him so far in college. Behind him is Theo Pinson. Pinson is a fantastic athlete, but has yet to figure out how to translate that athleticism into basketball production. He's a horrible shooter, though he does most other things reasonably solidly.

Guards: For as big as the Heels are in the frontcourt, they're oddly small at guard. They rotate three guys at PG/SG, all of whom can handle the ball and none of who are over 6'1". The historical headliner here is Marcus Paige, who we are all familiar with. However, oddly, he hasn't really been the Heels' best guard this year. That honor perhaps goes to Joel Berry, who out performs Paige (albeit slightly) in FG%, FT%, rebounds per game, assists per game, and steals per game, and is only a tad shy in points per game. Paige came to UNC as a PG, but has basically morphed into a shooting guard. He peaked as a sophomore and has gone downhill ever since. He'll probably make All-ACC again, though he really shouldn't be as much a given there as he will be. Paige is a smart player and can score in bunches, and when his 3ball is falling he's a handful. He's a good defender, with solid quickness and awareness. But he's very skinny, which could be problematic against our stronger guards. Berry is a very quick, very strong, versatile PG. He does a lot of the same things that Paige does, and now he's the guy running the show. Like Paige, he's still a score-first PG, and he's very good in transtion. But he leads the team in assists, and is really developing. He should get as much consideration for All-ACC as Paige, but I suspect he'll fall behind Paige in voting. Behind those two is Nate Britt. Britt brings very little to the table other than solid shooting and defense and few glaring mistakes. He's purely a game manager at PG, not an impact player at all. But given that the Heels have two playmakers in Berry and Paige, he can get away with just being a non-negative.

So we'll be quite undersized in the frontcourt but at a decent size advantage on the perimeter. The big concern will be the lack of depth (they'll play anywhere from 9 to 11 guys, we will play at most 7), UNC-CH's desire to run (which could wear us down), and their desire to use the post which could put Plumlee and/or Ingram in foul trouble.

If we can avoid foul trouble, avoid fatigue, and hit our 3s, we stand a good chance. If we struggle with either of those and/or allow UNC-CH to dominate inside, we will have a lot of trouble winning. This should be a high-scoring game, as both teams are better offensively than defensively. I'd expect it to be in the high-70s or 80s. Hopefully our guys are hitting their shots!

This is going to be a very tough game for Duke. UNC felt they should have won both games last year- particularly the one in Cameron. They are big, deep and are relentless on the boards. Duke may not have enough bodies as this one may be called pretty tight. K may have something up his sleeve. We shall see. Duke can win if they shoot well- particularly from deep.

[Kedsy]

Duke may not have enough bodies as this one may be called pretty tight.

I'm not saying you're wrong (or right), but what makes you think the game will be called unusually tight?

[DukieInKansas]

Allow me a small rant:

I turned over to ESPN Classic this morning, expecting to see a run of Duke-UNC games.

I did -- they are showing five straight "classic" Duke-UNC games Monday.

But ALL FIVE are UNC wins.

I'll be checking tomorrow to see if we get a run of Duke wins ...

I wouldn't hold your breath.

[dukelifer]

I'm not saying you're wrong (or right), but what makes you think the game will be called unusually tight?

I don't think "unusually tight" or "will be" - although I see how that may have come across- but these rivalry games are emotional and often played very fast in the first 10 minutes. The young Duke team has the huge disadvantage of playing the first one on the road. A couple of early fouls on Ingram or Thornton could really stress the rotation.

[Sir Stealth]

As is always the case with playing UNC under Roy, I hope that Duke comes ready and determined to always get back on D. It will be incredibly frustrating if we see Grayson make some acrobatic drive to the hoop only to see Carolina take the ball out and run down the court for an easy lay-in while he's still getting up off the ground. Thornton will really need to bring his A-game mentally in this regard as well. Hopefully we can control pace so that we don't get gassed with our limited depth.

I think that Duke has a lot more potential this year than we get credit for even without Amile, but transition D, foul trouble, and rebounding are all big concerns to me in this particular matchup.

[BandAlum83]

I don't think this will be a problem. In the 45 years of Duke/UNC games that I can remember watching, I believe I have only seen one game in which the UNC players looked uninspired and that was around the turn of the century. I don't remember which game specifically, but I remember being in Okinawa (1999-2002) watching on TV and saying to my wife... "UNC has quit!"... I remember that distinctly because it was the one and only time I can recall UNC giving up in a Duke game.

I'm pretty sure that would have been the 2001 ACC final in Atlanta during the awful Matt Doherty years. I was in th Georgia Dome for that game and remember saying to my father that UNC had given up. We beat Carolina by 26 in the final the day after beating MD by 2 the day before in a great game. Of course, we know now that we went on to win the National Championship, but in the moment, remember we had lost Boozer to injury.

Those were very dark days for UNC. You may recall Doherty crying during press conferences. His team didn't want to play for him. I remember thinking how sad for UNC to sink so far. It wasn't good for the ACC or The Rivalry, regardless of how much pleasure we may have gotten out of it. Of course, I respected UNC back then.

Now, I hope they get championships vacated for the egregious academic fraud that was perpetuated.

Sad, indeed.

[DukeFanSince1990]

http://www.starwars.com/games-apps/star-wars-crawl-creator/?cid=56c34eeee4b063c189ce14de

On hold with a vendor. Look what I did. Made me laugh.

*note, hit "begin"

[hudlow]

MRPs = just another team.

[DavidBenAkiva]

The mismatch between these two teams this year is particularly glaring. Duke is thin but with great scorers and shooters on the perimeter. UNC is big and gets most of its points around the basket.

Questions about Duke:

Will Marshall Plumlee be able to hold his own against Johnson, Meeks, Hicks, and James?
Will Grayson Allen and Brandon Ingram be able to drive and score around the basket?
Can the team keep the rebounding differential at least close? Ingram and Plumlee will have to get as many defensive rebounds as possible.


Questions about UNC:

Will the perimiter players be able to stop the bigger, better shooting guards? Not a single UNC player has a higher shooting percentage from 3 than any Duke player.
Will UNC be able to adjust to a variety of defensive looks from Duke, include man-to-man, a 2-3 zone, and the 1-3-1?
Will Marcus Paige show that he's an All-ACC caliber player in his last chance to win a home game against Duke?


I suspect that we'll see a variety of defensive schemes from Duke and some minutes from Jeter, at least in the first half, to spell Plumlee against that big front line of UNC. Whichever team can dictate the pace and style of play will have a distinct advantage.

[Kedsy]

Not a single UNC player has a higher shooting percentage from 3 than any Duke player.

I don't particularly want to re-open this debate, but the above statement is only true if you don't count Luke Kennard as a Duke player.

[COYS]

Others have mentioned keeping UNC out of transition, which is a perennial theme when we play the Heels. But I thought I'd bring it up one more time. According to Hoop Math (http://hoop-math.com/NorthCarolina2016.php), fully 1/3 of UNC's offensive possessions come in transition, either running off of a rebound, open court steal, or running off of an opponent's made basket. We get transition opportunities on only 21% of our possessions. UNC is far more efficient, obviously, when they get out in transition, but Duke really does have the advantage if we make them into a half court offensive team. We have our work cut out for us in this one, so no need to give them easy buckets. Get back on defense. Stop the ball in transition to prevent secondary breaks. Limit live ball turnovers. Make a high percentage of our shots. Piece of cake, right? ;)

[duke blue brewcrew]

Duke is one of the most efficient offenses in the country. Unless the Blue Devils are ice cold and can't throw it in the ocean from the boat, Duke shouldn't have a problem scoring on UNC. Duke's recent rebound from the mid-season losing streak has everything to do with their depth, defense, and rebounding. Duke must avoid foul trouble, and get some positive production from Jeter. The Blue Devils must get back on defense, and play D at the level they have over their win streak. Force contested shots, and play the passing lanes. Communicate, rotate, and help. Don't get caught watching the ball. Look for opportunities to convert defense into offense. Duke must also rebound well as a team. The Lieutenant can't be the only one working the boards for Duke. Ingram, Allen, Kennard, Thornton, Jones, and Jeter must all pitch in. UNC is too good in the paint, Duke must be scrappy in that department. LGD! GTHCGTH! (clap/clap/clap)

[DavidBenAkiva]

I don't particularly want to re-open this debate, but the above statement is only true if you don't count Luke Kennard as a Duke player.

Right! I missed that one.

On the season, Nate Britt is shooting .375 from 3 point range (petty good!). That would put him just behind Duke's second worst shooter from 3, Derryck Thornton at .379. Luke's recent improvement puts him at .322 for the season. In conference, Luke is shooting a more respectable .352.

FWIW, UNC's 3 point shooting has declined during conference play and Joel Berry has been most accurate at .347.

Still, Duke is a far superior shooting team than UNC.

[Olympic Fan]

Just an update on the ESPN Classic front.

Seven Duke-UNC games today and it's a not unreasonable split -- four UNC wins and three Duke wins.

Of course, that means in the last two days, it's been nine UNC wins and three Duke wins.

Interesting since in the ESPN era, Duke has a winning record against UNC.

I'd forgive a lot, if they could get a replay of the 1968 Freddie Lind game -- the greatest Duke win over UNC in my lifetime.

All I can tell the young 'uns, it would be if Vrankovic comes off the bench late in the first half, played most of the second half and all 15 minutes of three overtimes and dominates the game (both Jeter and Obi have played more this season than Lind did before the UNC game in the home finale in '68).

[Eakane]

I'll admit I have no idea why this works, but Dean ran it, and Roy runs it, and they usually get a lot out of it. It works better when they've got a Kendall Marshall type player (or Kendall himself), but they've got the man power to turn breaks into points.
Most times that I watch Duke-UNC games, I find myself screaming at the tv screen, "Get back!" But that's a problem because we need to have our guards hitting the boards to get us from getting killed on the glass. Pick your poison.
We can win, but it will take a supreme effort, and near perfect play. That starts with Thornton, who needs to make really good decisions with the ball. Same for Ingram, who needs to be patient and let the game come to him. We'll need Grayson, Jones and Kennard to be hitting on all cylinders. Feel confident we get that from Gray and Matt, but worried about Luke. He's a real talent and will be a star at Duke, but can't have a game like he did against UVa at Carolina. Like Ingram, he needs to let the game come to him. MPIII needs to stay out of foul trouble. And we need a few quality minutes from Vrank/Obi/Jeter.
If we can force them into a half court game, shoot well and limit the damage on the boards, we've got a real chance.

[Kedsy]

We can win, but it will take a supreme effort, and near perfect play.

"Perfect" play? UNC almost lost to BC. They did lose to Northern Iowa and Texas and Notre Dame. Granted all those games were on the road and this one's at home for them, and you never know what level of play UNC is going to trot out there in a rivalry game, but Duke's "very good" has to be at least as impressive as however well those teams played in their wins over UNC. We don't have to be perfect (or even "near perfect").

[CDu]

"Perfect" play? UNC almost lost to BC. They did lose to Northern Iowa and Texas and Notre Dame. Granted all those games were on the road and this one's at home for them, and you never know what level of play UNC is going to trot out there in a rivalry game, but Duke's "very good" has to be at least as impressive as however well those teams played in their wins over UNC. We don't have to be perfect (or even "near perfect").

To be fair, that UNI loss was without Paige. But I agree - it doesn't take a perfect game for us to beat UNC. But it will almost certainly take one of our best games of the season. We will need to play about as well as we did at home against UVa, if not better.

[PackMan97]

Good luck to all my <insert term that the forum software won't let me use, but as they say on World World, you can never have too many oo's> friends! I'll be cheering hard for you guys to beat Cheater Nation!

[FerryFor50]

"Perfect" play? UNC almost lost to BC. They did lose to Northern Iowa and Texas and Notre Dame. Granted all those games were on the road and this one's at home for them, and you never know what level of play UNC is going to trot out there in a rivalry game, but Duke's "very good" has to be at least as impressive as however well those teams played in their wins over UNC. We don't have to be perfect (or even "near perfect").

I'd be willing to wager that teams like BC weren't on UNC's radar, where Duke will be very much on their radar.

That said, no team this season is unbeatable. UNC has their warts just like any other team. The difference is, they can mask questionable coaching and guys having off nights with ridiculous depth - a result of Williams being able to talk guys who could have been pros already into sticking around. Think Marcus Paige's draft stock wasn't higher his sophomore year than this season? Or that Brice Johnson/Justin Jackson couldn't have been first rounders after their freshman year, based on potential alone (and before the holes in their games were exposed)?

[Doria]

Good luck to all my <insert term that the forum software won't let me use, but as they say on World World, you can never have too many oo's> friends! I'll be cheering hard for you guys to beat Cheater Nation!

Hopefully, we can win and your team can return the favor next week in Raleigh.

[Eakane]

UNC always brings their A-game against us (a few exceptions a long time ago, as discussed upthread). Make no mistake, they want this one every bit as much as we do. I think if I were a Carolina fan (and I just threw up in my mouth at that thought), I think what would frustrate me is the inability to get up for every game, hence losses to College of Charleston, Belmont, UNI (who's actually not that bad), Weber State etc. Last year's games at Pitt and at home against NC State were examples of them just mailing it in.I don;t get that. Duke almost never quits, or brings less than tremendous effort.

They've banked a lot on this season, because outside of the bat-c--p crazy insane partisans, they know they are going to get hit with sanctions. A scandal like this doesn't just "go away." They figured on winning the NC, and I venture to say they mostly figured on being better than 21-4 at this point. They've got a good team -- tall, deep, experienced, and yes, talented. They know that a win tomorrow pretty much seals the regular season and relegates us to a Wednesday game. A loss makes the Regular season race a real toss-up. That wasn't part of the plan.

So yeah, near-perfect fundamentals at least: no careless give away possessions, two-handed passes, making the extra pass; follow your shot, don't just watch the action, no deciding the moment you get the rebound that you are going to go coast to coast and end up getting called for a charge (I'm talking to you DT and GA), block out. no moving picks.

[PackMan97]

Hopefully, we can win and your team can return the favor next week in Raleigh.

Ya, if I magic-8 balled the game next week it would say, "Don't count on it"

[Kedsy]

Think Marcus Paige's draft stock wasn't higher his sophomore year than this season? Or that Brice Johnson/Justin Jackson couldn't have been first rounders after their freshman year, based on potential alone (and before the holes in their games were exposed)?

Now I think you're getting a bit carried away with the narrative. Paige's draft stock was never very high. He's too small and not quick enough to make up for his size. Brice Johnson was #40 in the recruiting rankings and scored 5 ppg with 3 rpg his freshman year. He would not have been drafted at all. Jackson, I agree could have made late first round.

[tux]

Here's an article from Rob Dauster of NBC (http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2016/02/17/film-session-dukes-defensive-tweak-and-what-it-means-as-the-tar-heels-take-on-north-carolina/) with some video breakdowns of how Duke's D has improved during this current win streak. In short, Duke has stopped switching screens as much... Most interesting to me was the implications for our rebounding.

(Sorry if this has already been posted elsewhere)

[Edouble]

Here's an article from Rob Dauster of NBC (http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2016/02/17/film-session-dukes-defensive-tweak-and-what-it-means-as-the-tar-heels-take-on-north-carolina/) with some video breakdowns of how Duke's D has improved during this current win streak. In short, Duke has stopped switching screens as much... Most interesting to me was the implications for our rebounding.

(Sorry if this has already been posted elsewhere)

Questionable article.

In the third video example, where the author states that "Duke (does) not switch a single screen or exchange", there aren't actually any screens set by the opposing offense (UVA). Kind of a weird example.

Also, this is the first that I have heard that unc has an "NBA calibre front line". Not so sure about that.

[jipops]

I think the combination of the cheats' experience, talent, depth, and front court prowess gives them big advantage in this match-up. With the way our guys have been playing lately there is a good possibility we can hang with them. But there is also a good chance we get blown out of the gym in this one. We still have issues defending around the paint and I expect the cheats to exploit this with regularity, since it is their strength and the source of a majority of scoring, which could lead to a lot of foul issues for us. It will be interesting to see how K uses Allen and Jones on defense. But I think the front court match ups are going to be a struggle for us.

On offense we simply have to hit a high percentage of 3's. The cheats aren't a great shot-blocking team so hopefully we can make a few things happen at the rim. But the bulk of damage is going to have to happen from deep.

Minutes logged in Duke/Cheats games by current roster:
Cheats: 639
Duke: 103

[superdave]

- They could easily kill us on the offensive glass and have a case where there best offense is to just get a shot up and then score off the miss with great offensive rebounding
- Fast break Defense. uncheat will look to push it at every opportunity and our fast break defense has not been good this season. We have to rebound well and find away to slow down their breaks and force them to work for points in halfcourt sets, shortening the game. We desperately need to shorten this game to limit possessions and manage fatigue.



These are my two biggest concerns - giving up second chance points and fast breaks. We cannot let them get easy buckets or the lack of depth and potential foul trouble will be magnified.

Vs. Unc the last decade, Coach K has always had guys look to stop the advance of the ball in transition by turning the ball handler. Amile would be the best option for this - literally to watch out for Britt/Paige, etc pushing the ball - by blocking a clear fast break path to slow Unc up enough for the defense to get in position. One or two seconds probably decreases Unc's transition FG% a decent bit. This is similar to how Duke face guarded Cat Barber on in-bounds plays so another guard had to advance the ball. Throw a monkey wrench in their game plan so they have to adjust.

[wilson]

http://www.starwars.com/games-apps/star-wars-crawl-creator/?cid=56c34eeee4b063c189ce14de

On hold with a vendor. Look what I did. Made me laugh.

*note, hit "begin"This is fantastic work, and I recommend that everyone watch it. "Obi Wan K Nobi" is a particularly nice touch.
Kudos, DFS1990.

[tux]

These are my two biggest concerns - giving up second chance points and fast breaks. We cannot let them get easy buckets or the lack of depth and potential foul trouble will be magnified.

Vs. Unc the last decade, Coach K has always had guys look to stop the advance of the ball in transition by turning the ball handler. Amile would be the best option for this - literally to watch out for Britt/Paige, etc pushing the ball - by blocking a clear fast break path to slow Unc up enough for the defense to get in position. One or two seconds probably decreases Unc's transition FG% a decent bit. This is similar to how Duke face guarded Cat Barber on in-bounds plays so another guard had to advance the ball. Throw a monkey wrench in their game plan so they have to adjust.


It seems obvious that Duke needs to make UNC play in the half-court and make them try and win the game from the outside. UNC is not a great shooting team, which may be one factor in them being a good offensive rebounding team. Plenty of opportunities. They're going to get some points inside, as Duke doesn't match up with them that great, but Duke poses some match-up problems as well. Which team is going to force the other team to make the first big adjustment --- if Duke's shots are not falling consistently, I could see a 10+ point UNC victory...

The motivation and experience is on UNC's side.

I worry the most about guarding Jackson, who could be their X-factor. And I worry about Marshall committing silly fouls inside, especially if UNC starts having some success in the paint, forcing Marshall to try to "do too much" in there.

And after the ending to the UVA game, we'll see how the refs treat Allen. I would expect him to not get a ton of calls going to the rim; if so, he'll need to adjust and try not to force things that aren't there.

Duke's X-factors are Thornton and Kennard IMO. We need one of them to play big (10+ points, etc.)

Limit turnovers, get good shots, get back on D... then hope for the best. This would be a huge win for Duke to say the least.

[FerryFor50]

Now I think you're getting a bit carried away with the narrative. Paige's draft stock was never very high. He's too small and not quick enough to make up for his size. Brice Johnson was #40 in the recruiting rankings and scored 5 ppg with 3 rpg his freshman year. He would not have been drafted at all. Jackson, I agree could have made late first round.

I think someone would have taken a chance on Paige after his excellent sophomore season. I also think Johnson's potential could have gotten him a look after his freshman/sophomore years. Johnson likely would have been a "workout wonder" with his length and leaping ability.

[uh_no]

Minutes logged in Duke/Cheats games by current roster:
Cheats: 639
Duke: 103

that goes both ways.

UNC hasn't really played against ingram or allen, and they haven't played against UNC.

[luburch]

Oh boy this video is great. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=139&v=j63Mgd0DTyI

Some Duke students put on Carolina gear (hopefully they were given vaccines beforehand) and traveled over to CH. They asked the Carolina students some questions about the team this year which produced some hilarious results. :)

I've seen this done with soccer teams before in Europe, but never by a college team. Definitely worth the watch!

[moonpie23]

well, according to IC, duke shouldn't even make the trip...


should put all those posts on the locker....

[Hingeknocker]

Questionable article.

In the third video example, where the author states that "Duke (does) not switch a single screen or exchange", there aren't actually any screens set by the opposing offense (UVA). Kind of a weird example.

Also, this is the first that I have heard that unc has an "NBA calibre front line". Not so sure about that.

I actually thought it was a pretty interesting article, with good video analysis. On that UVA play, it's true that there weren't any ball screens set, but there was a lot of screening action off the ball. And, it's true, Duke didn't switch on any of those screens.

I'm always way too emotionally invested in the game to pick up on this stuff while watching, but our defense seemed much better against UVA. And, as the article pointed out, their offense is no slouch even as their defense gets all the attention. I'm impressed after watching that video and gives me even more encouragement that this team is figuring out how to play defense, albeit in a different way than we are used to seeing.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Oh boy this video is great. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=139&v=j63Mgd0DTyI

Some Duke students put on Carolina gear (hopefully they were given vaccines beforehand) and traveled over to CH. They asked the Carolina students some questions about the team this year which produced some hilarious results. :)

I've seen this done with soccer teams before in Europe, but never by a college team. Definitely worth the watch!
Fantastic. Good thing I wasn't eating while watching that.

[Kedsy]

I think someone would have taken a chance on Paige after his excellent sophomore season.

Maybe, but not all that likely. Remember Scottie Reynolds, of Villanova? Similar player to Paige. He was first team All American and didn't get drafted at all.


I also think Johnson's potential could have gotten him a look after his freshman/sophomore years. Johnson likely would have been a "workout wonder" with his length and leaping ability.

No. Possible. Way. Show me an American player who was outside the top 35 in recruiting rankings and who had never put up much statistically for his college team getting drafted in the first round as a freshman or sophomore -- ever. I haven't done the research but I'd be shocked if it's ever happened.

Besides, his 6'11" wingspan is decent but isn't so amazing for a guy his height. And while he's a good leaper he's never struck me as super-extraordinary, and I can't imagine he's strong enough to be considered a "workout wonder." Even now, DraftExpress has Johnson going in the second round (although others do have him in the first round). There were lots of 6'9" players who could run and jump and didn't get drafted who would have been picked ahead of Johnson after his freshman and/or sophomore campaigns.

[FerryFor50]

Oh boy this video is great. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=139&v=j63Mgd0DTyI

Some Duke students put on Carolina gear (hopefully they were given vaccines beforehand) and traveled over to CH. They asked the Carolina students some questions about the team this year which produced some hilarious results. :)

I've seen this done with soccer teams before in Europe, but never by a college team. Definitely worth the watch!

SEE YOU WEDNESDAY.

Burn.

[Kedsy]

well, according to IC, duke shouldn't even make the trip...

From my research, it appears this is the 19th time in the K era that one of the teams is ranked top 5 and the other between 11 and 20 (using that week's AP poll).

So far, the top 5 team has won 14 and the top 20 team has won 4 (78% winning percentage for the better ranked team). Of the four wins for the lesser ranked team, two came at home, one came on the road, and one came in the ACC tournament.

Breaking it down further, in top 5 vs. top 20 matchups, Duke has been the better ranked team 12 times (out of 18), and as a better ranked team has a 10-2 record. UNC has been the better ranked team in 6 such games, and has a 4-2 record.

So, historically, the odds are in their favor. But personally, I still feel pretty good about tonight's game.

[Olympic Fan]

Interesting ... the Vegas line opened with UNC -5 and has climbed to UNC -71/2

[tux]

I'll admit I have no idea why this works, but Dean ran it, and Roy runs it, and they usually get a lot out of it. It works better when they've got a Kendall Marshall type player (or Kendall himself), but they've got the man power to turn breaks into points.
Most times that I watch Duke-UNC games, I find myself screaming at the tv screen, "Get back!" But that's a problem because we need to have our guards hitting the boards to get us from getting killed on the glass. Pick your poison.
We can win, but it will take a supreme effort, and near perfect play. That starts with Thornton, who needs to make really good decisions with the ball. Same for Ingram, who needs to be patient and let the game come to him. We'll need Grayson, Jones and Kennard to be hitting on all cylinders. Feel confident we get that from Gray and Matt, but worried about Luke. He's a real talent and will be a star at Duke, but can't have a game like he did against UVa at Carolina. Like Ingram, he needs to let the game come to him. MPIII needs to stay out of foul trouble. And we need a few quality minutes from Vrank/Obi/Jeter.
If we can force them into a half court game, shoot well and limit the damage on the boards, we've got a real chance.

I always thought that the secondary break was something Roy started using at Kansas. I don't remember it being much of a staple of Dean's UNC teams? That said, it can be surprisingly effective especially, like you mention, with the right PG. Instead of running down the court to set-up your offense, you're already running the offense as you move up the court. If there's nothing there, you can always pull the ball out and start over. I.e., I'm surprised more teams don't do it...

[Chillduck]

I always thought that the secondary break was something Roy started using at Kansas. I don't remember it being much of a staple of Dean's UNC teams? That said, it can be surprisingly effective especially, like you mention, with the right PG. Instead of running down the court to set-up your offense, you're already running the offense as you move up the court. If there's nothing there, you can always pull the ball out and start over. I.e., I'm surprised more teams don't do it...

The secondary break was a huge part of Dean's North Carolina teams. It always helped to have a good passing big man as the trail at the top of the key to reverse it to the far post. Roy did not invent it, it is one of those things we can credit to Dean (along with that god-awful four corners).

[Lar77]

Just an update on the ESPN Classic front.

I'd forgive a lot, if they could get a replay of the 1968 Freddie Lind game -- the greatest Duke win over UNC in my lifetime.

All I can tell the young 'uns, it would be if Vrankovic comes off the bench late in the first half, played most of the second half and all 15 minutes of three overtimes and dominates the game (both Jeter and Obi have played more this season than Lind did before the UNC game in the home finale in '68).

OF, I think you've made the call on tonight's game! Vrank joining the Pantheon!

[tux]

The secondary break was a huge part of Dean's North Carolina teams. It always helped to have a good passing big man as the trail at the top of the key to reverse it to the far post. Roy did not invent it, it is one of those things we can credit to Dean (along with that god-awful four corners).

I stand corrected. As penance, here's a breakdown of UNC's secondary break vs Clemson (http://bustingbrackets.com/2015/01/08/north-carolina-tar-heels-secondary-break-101/). After watching, it will be interesting to see how Duke defends this tonight...

[DU82]

Maybe, but not all that likely. Remember Scottie Reynolds, of Villanova? Similar player to Paige. He was first team All American and didn't get drafted at all.


there were other issues with Scotty, mainly that he hung out with Taylor King too often. Not a great comparison in my view. Although neither is a great fit for the NBA the way it plays.

[TKG]

From my research, it appears this is the 19th time in the K era that one of the teams is ranked top 5 and the other between 11 and 20 (using that week's AP poll).

So far, the top 5 team has won 14 and the top 20 team has won 4 (78% winning percentage for the better ranked team). Of the four wins for the lesser ranked team, two came at home, one came on the road, and one came in the ACC tournament.

Breaking it down further, in top 5 vs. top 20 matchups, Duke has been the better ranked team 12 times (out of 18), and as a better ranked team has a 10-2 record. UNC has been the better ranked team in 6 such games, and has a 4-2 record.

So, historically, the odds are in their favor. But personally, I still feel pretty good about tonight's game.

From the front page of ESPN:

Duke thrives as a dog in Chapel Hill: tonight will mark the fourth time in the last five seasons that Duke is an underdog against North Carolina in Chapel Hill. The Blue Devils have won the past three games outright as the underdog.

[DukieInBrasil]

No. Possible. Way. Show me an American player who was outside the top 35 in recruiting rankings and who had never put up much statistically for his college team getting drafted in the first round as a freshman or sophomore -- ever. I haven't done the research but I'd be shocked if it's ever happened.


Daniel Orton from Kentucky? I don't know what his HS rank was, but he didn't do squat at Ketucky and got drafted in the 1st round as Fr.
I could have my facts out of whack, but he did make to the NBA if he never amounted to anything there.

[uh_no]

From my research, it appears this is the 19th time in the K era that one of the teams is ranked top 5 and the other between 11 and 20 (using that week's AP poll).

So far, the top 5 team has won 14 and the top 20 team has won 4 (78% winning percentage for the better ranked team). Of the four wins for the lesser ranked team, two came at home, one came on the road, and one came in the ACC tournament.

Breaking it down further, in top 5 vs. top 20 matchups, Duke has been the better ranked team 12 times (out of 18), and as a better ranked team has a 10-2 record. UNC has been the better ranked team in 6 such games, and has a 4-2 record.

So, historically, the odds are in their favor. But personally, I still feel pretty good about tonight's game.

thanks for the research.

Fortunately for US, the polls have seemed to overrank UNC and underrank duke this year.

The oracle of KP has UNC at 7 and duke at 11...much closer.....almost a tossup on a neutral court.

So how does this game play out?

Question 1) How does duke's defense play out?

This is the best offense we've faced but for ND. Our defense on the year is about 100 pp....but the past 2 games has been below 90 (adjusted)...including barely 1 point per to a almost as potent UVA team.

Question 2) Can we deal with 6 guys vs there 50?

UNC always plays deep, and this year is no different. We run 6.002 deep. If I'm roy, my game plan is to go straight at plumlee every possession. Best best case, plumlee gets in trouble early and score lots of points. Best case, they score points because plumlee slacks off to avoid foul trouble. Average case, duke has to hedge to deny the entry pass. There's no reason NOT to go at plumlee...especially when they have 3+ guys to go at him with.

Part two of this, can we stay fresh? We have few guys playing lots of minutes. We're going to be gassed down the stretch.

Question 3) Can we score with them?

We obviously have a great offense, and their defense is alright, but not great. We're going to need some threes to fall, for grayson and brandon to be aggressive, and to get a few calls underneath.


So what's our game plan?
1) keep the game slowed down...not absurd...but we'll lose if we try to run. they have too many guys. This has the added benefit of reducing the opportunities for plumlee to pick up fouls.
2) Similar to 1, play efficient offense. They're too good for us to have lots of empty possessions. Derryck needs to limit turnovers, we collectively need to limit bad shots, and hopefully get a bunch of points at the line. These are always important (duh) things....but will be especially important in a game where we may have to play slow to stay in the game....we'll have fewer possessions to exert offensive superiority...so we have to make the best of them
3) Give up the points rather than foul, especially for plumlee. If we're playing efficient offense, we can afford some leeway to the defense. not fouling will be paramount.

I think UNC wins.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Daniel Orton from Kentucky? I don't know what his HS rank was, but he didn't do sh!t at Ketucky and got drafted in the 1st round as Fr.
I could have my facts out of whack, but he did make to the NBA if he never amounted to anything there.

Orton was 19 on RSCI.

[CDu]

Daniel Orton from Kentucky? I don't know what his HS rank was, but he didn't do sh!t at Ketucky and got drafted in the 1st round as Fr.
I could have my facts out of whack, but he did make to the NBA if he never amounted to anything there.

Orton was tied for #19. Not great, but not quite as far down as Johnson was (#40).

[nocilla]

It seems obvious that Duke needs to make UNC play in the half-court and make them try and win the game from the outside. UNC is not a great shooting team, which may be one factor in them being a good offensive rebounding team. Plenty of opportunities. They're going to get some points inside, as Duke doesn't match up with them that great, but Duke poses some match-up problems as well. Which team is going to force the other team to make the first big adjustment --- if Duke's shots are not falling consistently, I could see a 10+ point UNC victory...

The motivation and experience is on UNC's side.

I worry the most about guarding Jackson, who could be their X-factor. And I worry about Marshall committing silly fouls inside, especially if UNC starts having some success in the paint, forcing Marshall to try to "do too much" in there.

And after the ending to the UVA game, we'll see how the refs treat Allen. I would expect him to not get a ton of calls going to the rim; if so, he'll need to adjust and try not to force things that aren't there.

Duke's X-factors are Thornton and Kennard IMO. We need one of them to play big (10+ points, etc.)
Limit turnovers, get good shots, get back on D... then hope for the best. This would be a huge win for Duke to say the least.

I agree with most of this.

Honestly, UNC should win tonight. There is no way we will stop their inside game and if they hit perimeter shots like they did against Pitt it could get ugly.
But I also think they won't be able to stop Allen and Ingram. If they can score and create offense for others then we can keep pace and try to steal one at the end.

I was thinking the same as tux for X-factors. It seems like Unc is usually vulnerable to quick perimeter scorers. Thornton is quick enough and can hit the midrange floaters. He hasn't scored a lot but he can cause problems. Kennard is crafty enough to create some shots and if can get hot he can score in bunches.

Basically I think UNC scores in the post with Johnson and Hicks while Duke scores from the wings with Allen and Ingram. The difference will be whether Kennard, Jones, or Thornton can get hot and outpace Paige, Berry, and Jackson's perimeter games.

[jmck214]

Duke thrives as a dog in Chapel Hill: tonight will mark the fourth time in the last five seasons that Duke is an underdog against North Carolina in Chapel Hill. The Blue Devils have won the past three games outright as the underdog.

Yes but Duke was the better team in 4 out of those 5 meetings with the exception being the Rivers game. In fact I don't ever remember Duke winning at UNC when UNC was the better team with the exception of the 2012 Rivers game. It doesn't happen very often of course but I remember UNC being better in 1996 (close loss, Calabria tip in), 1998, (1v2 blowout), 2005 (marvin Williams putback), and 2009 (we actually won this game but Lawson was DNP). I think we can all agree that without Jefferson UNC is the better team right now.

[Kedsy]

From the front page of ESPN:

Duke thrives as a dog in Chapel Hill: tonight will mark the fourth time in the last five seasons that Duke is an underdog against North Carolina in Chapel Hill. The Blue Devils have won the past three games outright as the underdog.

Well, if ESPN is correct, it shows the oddsmakers and the AP voters didn't talk much. Here are the teams' AP rankings the last five years for the game at Chapel Hill:

2015: Duke #3; UNC #19
2014: Duke #5; UNC unranked
2013: Duke #3; UNC unranked
2012: Duke #10; UNC #5
2011: Duke #4; UNC #13

Anyway, I'd be surprised to learn that Duke was the underdog in more than one of those games. Two at the most. I think ESPN got it wrong.

[Kedsy]

Yes but Duke was the better team in 4 out of those 5 meetings with the exception being the Rivers game. In fact I don't ever remember Duke winning at UNC when UNC was the better team with the exception of the 2012 Rivers game. It doesn't happen very often of course but I remember UNC being better in 1996 (close loss, Calabria tip in), 1998, (1v2 blowout), 2005 (marvin Williams putback), and 2009 (we actually won this game but Lawson was DNP). I think we can all agree that without Jefferson UNC is the better team right now.

At the time of the game at Chapel Hill, UNC has outranked Duke (according to AP) 15 times in Coach K's tenure. Duke won 3 of the 15 games, including 3 of the last 9 (2012, 1991, 1988).

Also, we lost the 2009 game at Chapel Hill and Lawson played 36 minutes. We won the 2008 game at Chapel Hill and Lawson was a DNP, but going into that game Duke outranked UNC (#2 to #3). And I'm not sure why you thought UNC was clearly the better team in 1998 (other than the fact that they beat us fairly handily) -- going into that game Duke was #1, UNC was #2.

[FerryFor50]

The game will likely come down to if UNC wants to actually play defense or not.

I've seen spells in games where UNC actually *tries* to defend and is pretty effective at it. But most of the game, they're not super active on defense. They just let their offense carry them to wins.

It will also come down to if we can get UNC's bigs into foul trouble or not. Hopefully, Johnson plays overaggressively and commits some dumb fouls, maybe even gets a technical for arguing a call. Otherwise, Duke (read: Marshall Plumlee) is completely out-manned down low.

[Monmouth77]

The game that sticks out to me as an "underdog" win in Chapel Hill in (relatively) recent times was 2008. Yes, we were ranked #2 and UNC was #3 at the time of the game, but we finished 8-5 down the stretch, and lost to WVU in NCAA RD32 and UNC was a Final Four team that lost to eventual champion Kansas -- with the same essential team that won the title in 2009.

Like this year, we were relatively inexperienced (started 2 sophomores (Thomas, Henderson) and a freshman (Singler) to go with Jr. Paulus and Sr. Nelson), lacked frontcourt depth, and depended a great deal on the three point shot. Fortunately, we rained threes on Chapel Hill (13-29) and UNC missed almost all their threes (3-17). It feels like we need a performance a little bit like that one tonight. Granted, we also have the two most talented players on the floor tonight: an advantage we did not have in 2008.

[wgl1228]

If anyone here goes to the game give us a Jefferson update. Boot, no boot, dressed out to play, etc.

[uh_no]

If anyone here goes to the game give us a Jefferson update. Boot, no boot, dressed out to play, etc.

that's some optimism!

I'm not sure I have my hopes up, though.

[rsvman]

Tough game, to be sure.

We lose if Marshall gets into early foul trouble. We lose if we shoot poorly from the outside.


We win if Marshall stays out of foul trouble and everybody is shooting well.



UNC SHOULD win, but as they say, "that's why they play the games."

[tux]

The game will likely come down to if UNC wants to actually play defense or not.

I've seen spells in games where UNC actually *tries* to defend and is pretty effective at it. But most of the game, they're not super active on defense. They just let their offense carry them to wins.

It will also come down to if we can get UNC's bigs into foul trouble or not. Hopefully, Johnson plays overaggressively and commits some dumb fouls, maybe even gets a technical for arguing a call. Otherwise, Duke (read: Marshall Plumlee) is completely out-manned down low.


I wouldn't bank too much on getting the UNC frontcourt in foul trouble. They're pretty deep, right? I guess one could argue that getting Brice Johnson in foul trouble could be a big factor. If we can limit Johnson and make UNC's perimeter beat us, we have a much better chance. But I don't see the UNC seniors having a major letdown. Much more likely that Duke plays young and tight. IMO, Duke will have to steal one at the end... more probable to me is a comfortable UNC win...

I'll of course be disappointed in a loss, but mainly I'd love to see Duke make UNC really work for this one. If the game is still in doubt at the last media timeout, I'll be somewhat satisfied. That would still keep Duke on their "improving" trajectory moving into the last couple of weeks of the season.

[ChillinDuke]

Well, if ESPN is correct, it shows the oddsmakers and the AP voters didn't talk much. Here are the teams' AP rankings the last five years for the game at Chapel Hill:

2015: Duke #3; UNC #19
2014: Duke #5; UNC unranked
2013: Duke #3; UNC unranked
2012: Duke #10; UNC #5
2011: Duke #4; UNC #13

Anyway, I'd be surprised to learn that Duke was the underdog in more than one of those games. Two at the most. I think ESPN got it wrong.

Small aside - I don't have a website handy to check something like this, but that stat doesn't at all surprise me. For example, take tonight's #3 Oklahoma at Texas Tech game. Texas Tech is 15-9 (including a losing record of 5-7 in the Big 12), unranked, and playing what many are calling one of the best teams in the country. But Texas Tech is at home, so OU is favored by only 3, and the line opened at 2.

It's not hard to envision a similar scenario for four of the five aforementioned Duke @ UNC games where UNC was slightly better than this year's Texas Tech and was a slight favorite. In fact, I'd assume that just based on the rankings alone that you listed that Duke was at least a 'dog in '11, '12, and '15. So being a 'dog in one of '13 or '14 to make it four out of five does not shock me.

- Chillin

[FerryFor50]

I wouldn't bank too much on getting the UNC frontcourt in foul trouble. They're pretty deep, right? I guess one could argue that getting Brice Johnson in foul trouble could be a big factor. If we can limit Johnson and make UNC's perimeter beat us, we have a much better chance. But I don't see the UNC seniors having a major letdown. Much more likely that Duke plays young and tight. IMO, Duke will have to steal one at the end... more probable to me is a comfortable UNC win...

I'll of course be disappointed in a loss, but mainly I'd love to see Duke make UNC really work for this one. If the game is still in doubt at the last media timeout, I'll be somewhat satisfied. That would still keep Duke on their "improving" trajectory moving into the last couple of weeks of the season.

Boston College was able to get Johnson and Hicks in foul trouble.

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=400839751

I'd take Johnson and Hicks in trouble.

[tbyers11]

Well, if ESPN is correct, it shows the oddsmakers and the AP voters didn't talk much. Here are the teams' AP rankings the last five years for the game at Chapel Hill:

2015: Duke #3; UNC #19
2014: Duke #5; UNC unranked
2013: Duke #3; UNC unranked
2012: Duke #10; UNC #5
2011: Duke #4; UNC #13

Anyway, I'd be surprised to learn that Duke was the underdog in more than one of those games. Two at the most. I think ESPN got it wrong.


Small aside - I don't have a website handy to check something like this, but that stat doesn't at all surprise me. For example, take tonight's #3 Oklahoma at Texas Tech game. Texas Tech is 15-9 (including a losing record of 5-7 in the Big 12), unranked, and playing what many are calling one of the best teams in the country. But Texas Tech is at home, so OU is favored by only 3, and the line opened at 2.

It's not hard to envision a similar scenario for four of the five aforementioned Duke @ UNC games where UNC was slightly better than this year's Texas Tech and was a slight favorite. In fact, I'd assume that just based on the rankings alone that you listed that Duke was at least a 'dog in '11, '12, and '15. So being a 'dog in one of '13 or '14 to make it four out of five does not shock me.

- Chillin

I don't have a historical odds website either but the KenPom spreads, which are usually within a few points of Vegas, for the last 5 games at UNC were

2011: Duke by 1
2012: UNC by 7
2013: Duke by 2
2014: Duke by 2
2015: UNC by 1

As Chillin said, any of the 2011, 2013, 2014 games could easily have Vegas lines a few points toward UNC making them the favorite.

[DavidBenAkiva]

It was a number of years ago that I noticed that Duke guards have really gone off at Chapel Hill. Perhaps this is due to UNC guards being on the small side under Roy Williams. It could also be that they just haven't recruited good defenders. Here are some stats from our guards the past few years:


2015: Win, Quinn Cook 20 Pts (7-16 FG / 4-10 3FG), Tyus Jones 24 Pts (5-10 FG / 2-4 3FG)
2014: Loss, Quinn Cook 17 Pts (7-13 FG / 3-7 3FG)
2013: Win, Seth Curry 20 Pts (8-13 / 2-6 3FG)
2012: Win, Austin Rivers 29 Pts (9-16 / 6-10 3FG) One of those 3 pointers was quite memorable.
2011: Loss, Nolan Smith 30 Pts (9-19 Pts / 0-4 3FG), Seth Curry 20 Pts (6-13 Pts / 6-11 3FG)


We've had at least one of our guards go off against UNC in nearly every game. I wonder how their undersized guards are going to do against Grayson, Matt, and Luke. We are going to need some production from Derryck, too. GTHC

[blUDAYvil]

I am very concerned about fouls to our front court.

I would prefer us being tied with the cheaters at the half with Marshall and Brandon with 1 foul each OVER

a 5 point lead with Marshall and Brandon with 2 fouls each

OR

a 12 point lead with Marshall and Brandon with 3 fouls each.

[Doria]

I would prefer us being tied with the cheaters at the half with Marshall and Brandon with 1 foul each OVER

a 5 point lead with Marshall and Brandon with 2 fouls each

OR

a 12 point lead with Marshall and Brandon with 3 fouls each.

Being tied or even down by <5 with less than 2 fouls on our "frontcourt" would be a fantastic result. But I think there is no way, in any scenario I can imagine, that Marshall AND Brandon have 3 fouls each at the half. No matter how it's called, though, we have to adjust and play smart. I am not too worried about this, since Coach K is a master of this aspect of the game, and I'm sure he will get assists from the relatively more senior players in reminding our freshmen about what looks available or what they're calling close.

I am actually much more worried about our frontcourt being largely ineffective on defense due to avoiding fouls. It's a tricky needle to thread, but I think we've got to do it to be competitive tonight. Much of our defense, from my point of view, comes down to limiting the damage (not altogether stopping it) they'll do to us in transition, on the boards, and in the frontcourt. We don't have to be perfect in any category, but I don't see how we win if we aren't competitive in at least two of the three--again, I'm speaking defensively, so competitive means limiting them.

As others have said, our guards/wings must play great defense to limit backdoor cuts, while also getting out on their proven scorers (or anyone that gets a hot hand). Again, while Carolina hasn't shown it much this year, their stats don't really do justice to the kinds of points they can score in a hurry, including from the 3-point line. And against us, as others have commented, we can fully expect to see a great-shooting night from at them. I just hope that they tend toward the mean on the season, not toward their potential.

There isn't much we can do about the depth issue. But our coaching staff has a ton of experience managing this, since almost every year, we are--maybe not this degree, but somewhat--less deep than they are. Truthfully, it's an advantage for them, no doubt; but I've seen it bite them this year, too, when rampant substitutions have prevented players from getting any rhythm together and have created some probably less than ideal lineups. We can't rely on Roy to beat them, but I'd fully expect him to give us an assist or two.

Match-ups will certainly be interesting, and others have incisively discussed that upstream. Truthfully, if Derryck has a good game, I think he could be very tough against whoever guards him. We can't have any weak finishes around the basket, due to their frontcourt, but if he looks for open shooters or good mid-range shots, Derryck can certainly do some damage. I don't know that Carolina has anyone with his quickness; but of course, he also needs to make good decisions in the lane (as do all our guards, when they get penetration).

Good-shooting Luke would really provide a lift, too.

We are almost sure to be very tired in the second half. I think we're learning to play through fatigue, but man, I hope we've learned to hit our free throws through fatigue. No need to make every game so exciting as the UVA game.

I'll be honest. I'm kind of dreading this game, but win or lose, I'll support our guys, and just want to see a great effort from them above all. And I'm certain I will see that! Go Duke!

[JMarley50]

The secondary break was a huge part of Dean's North Carolina teams. It always helped to have a good passing big man as the trail at the top of the key to reverse it to the far post. Roy did not invent it, it is one of those things we can credit to Dean (along with that god-awful four corners).

My high school program used Dean's secondary break. It works because it is basically a very well organized attack at a time when the defense is scrambling, trying to get back and find their man. Everyone fills their lanes, spreads the floor, and their are countless options to look for. I was often the trailing big that you mentioned. What helps the most is having a big man that can run like a deer and sprint block to block with ease... Unfortunately, the cheaters have a couple of those this year. I look for them to try and run a lot tonight, given our short bench. As has been mentioned before, we desperately need Chase to arrive and contribute like he is capable of.

[jmck214]

At the time of the game at Chapel Hill, UNC has outranked Duke (according to AP) 15 times in Coach K's tenure. Duke won 3 of the 15 games, including 3 of the last 9 (2012, 1991, 1988).

Also, we lost the 2009 game at Chapel Hill and Lawson played 36 minutes. We won the 2008 game at Chapel Hill and Lawson was a DNP, but going into that game Duke outranked UNC (#2 to #3). And I'm not sure why you thought UNC was clearly the better team in 1998 (other than the fact that they beat us fairly handily) -- going into that game Duke was #1, UNC was #2.

I was off a year on the Lawson game and you can't just go by who outranked who to determine who was better. In 98 Duke won a close game at Cameron and lost convincingly at UNC and in the ACC finals. UNC was loaded that year with Jamison and Carter. I thought they were the best team that year and Duke was the second best

[left_hook_lacey]

If, you're feeling confident about the game and want to put your money where mouth is, you can make a small fortune betting Duke on the moneyline.


Right now, you can more than double you're money by taking Duke on the moneyline. $100 will win you $285, no point spread needed!!!


Hurry Hurry Hurry, step right up folks and bring your money!!

[Kedsy]

I was off a year on the Lawson game and you can't just go by who outranked who to determine who was better. In 98 Duke won a close game at Cameron and lost convincingly at UNC and in the ACC finals. UNC was loaded that year with Jamison and Carter. I thought they were the best team that year and Duke was the second best

Well, I don't know. You can't just go by head-to-head to determine who was better, either. Going into the 1998 NCAA tournament, Duke was rated around a point better than UNC by Sagarin, and the two teams were basically tied in the RPI (Pomeroy didn't exist yet). To me, it was a tossup, with maybe Duke having a slight edge. I personally wouldn't put that particular game on the ledger of "UNC being better."

[Saratoga2]

I watched a replay of last years UNC/Duke game at Cameron in which we squeaked out a win in overtime.

In that game, we had our 3 wonderful freshmen, Quinn, Amile and Matt as principal players. None of those will play tonight, whereas the only principal player that UNC lost was Tokoto (SP). Since this game will be played in their house and they are much more experienced, it looks like it will be a difficult game for Duke. Someone else said the hope is that our front court won't get into deep foul trouble and that UNC will play uninterested defense. Hope that is true.

[wilson]

Well, I don't know. You can't just go by head-to-head to determine who was better, either. Going into the 1998 NCAA tournament, Duke was rated around a point better than UNC by Sagarin, and the two teams were basically tied in the RPI (Pomeroy didn't exist yet). To me, it was a tossup, with maybe Duke having a slight edge. I personally wouldn't put that particular game on the ledger of "UNC being better."I'd have to agree with Kedsy in this particular case. Though they were the proverbial "one year away," I think we too easily forget how good that '98 team was. Finish the job vs. Kentucky in the Elite 8, and I think that team very well may have won the title.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I watched a replay of last years UNC/Duke game at Cameron in which we squeaked out a win in overtime.

In that game, we had our 3 wonderful freshmen, Quinn, Amile and Matt as principal players. None of those will play tonight, whereas the only principal player that UNC lost was Tokoto (SP). Since this game will be played in their house and they are much more experienced, it looks like it will be a difficult game for Duke. Someone else said the hope is that our front court won't get into deep foul trouble and that UNC will play uninterested defense. Hope that is true.

Matt Jones doesn't like this post.

[ArtVandelay]

If ever there was a game to rely on the zone, you'd think it would be tonight. In an ideal world, it would make it harder for Carolina to pound it inside, keep Ingram/MP3 out of foul trouble, slow the game down a bit, and force the Cheats to chuck it from deep, which is not their strength. That said, we've really gone away from the zone lately and rightfully so since it's mostly been pretty bad this year. If they don't zone today, I think it's fair to say that we've seen the last of it in 2016 as a defense that we will rely on to any significant degree in close games.

As others have noted, the battle to keep Ingram/Plumlee out of foul trouble will be key. I am nervous about Ingram's ability to guard Johnson along with the other guys they will run at him without fouling. It's vital that he not pick up cheap fouls tonight.

[uh_no]

Matt Jones doesn't like this post.

neither do lovers of the oxford comma

[Wander]

Looks like we'll have some help, as some UNC students will be supporting Grayson Allen and Brandon Ingram:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j63Mgd0DTyI

[Wheat/"/"/"]

I' m looking for UNC to play at a fast pace all night and be aggressive taking the ball to the rim off the dribble, putting pressure on Duke to defend, while defending with pressure on the ball as well. The lack of Duke depth will likely show in this one by way of foul trouble or tired legs at some point.

UNC is coming inside, with entry passing to the post, and off the dribble. Hugh advantage there and Roy will look to exploit that.

If UNC continues to shoot it OK from deep, it could get ugly.

If UNC gets out in transition, it could get ugly.

Best hope is to try and control the pace, steal one away at the end if UNC plays poorly.

Ingram will have to have a big night shooting from depth to stretch out Johnson and Hicks, and not foul in the post where he is outmatched. Grayson and Kennard have to shoot well too for a Duke win.

UNC is good defensively when they are engaged. I can't imagine they won't be focused tonight. I like our chances.

I think we see these match ups to start...

Paige- Thornton
Berry- Jones ( Berry's strength and quickness can cause him problems)
Jackson-Allen. (I like some length on the shooter)
Johnson-Ingram
Meeks-Plumlee

I also expect to see these when Roy goes small...

Paige-Kennard
Berry-Allen
Pinson-Jones
Jackson-Ingram
Hicks-Plumlee

We could also see...

Paige-Allen
Berry-Kennard
Pinson-Jones
Hicks-Ingram
Johnson-Plumlee

Lots of defensive options for Roy to use to find the defense that works best.

Some things we can be sure of...We all know the rankings can go out the window in this one. We know Duke will play hard...we know they will fire up the deep shots...and we know they will beg for calls in the lane :)

I really hope the refs don't get noticed in this great match up. Let the players settle it. I'm tired about hearing about refs and lame calls this year.

Here's to a fun game!

[gocanes0506]

Odd fact for the night. Duke and them have played on 2/17 twice before. Both losses by 3 points and both at their place.

Need some history reversal. 3rd times a charm!

[-jk]

DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox) is open!

If it gets a bit slow, refresh the page. If you're on a mobile device, you'll need to select "Blue" at the bottom.

As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines.

Let's Go Duke!

-jk

[Duke76]

I' m looking for UNC to play at a fast pace all night and be aggressive taking the ball to the rim off the dribble, putting pressure on Duke to defend, while defending with pressure on the ball as well. The lack of Duke depth will likely show in this one by way of foul trouble or tired legs at some point.

UNC is coming inside, with entry passing to the post, and off the dribble. Hugh advantage there and Roy will look to exploit that.

If UNC continues to shoot it OK from deep, it could get ugly.

If UNC gets out in transition, it could get ugly.

Best hope is to try and control the pace, steal one away at the end if UNC plays poorly.

Ingram will have to have a big night shooting from depth to stretch out Johnson and Hicks, and not foul in the post where he is outmatched. Grayson and Kennard have to shoot well too for a Duke win.

UNC is good defensively when they are engaged. I can't imagine they won't be focused tonight. I like our chances.

I think we see these match ups to start...

Paige- Thornton
Berry- Jones ( Berry's strength and quickness can cause him problems)
Jackson-Allen. (I like some length on the shooter)
Johnson-Ingram
Meeks-Plumlee

I also expect to see these when Roy goes small...

Paige-Kennard
Berry-Allen
Pinson-Jones
Jackson-Ingram
Hicks-Plumlee

We could also see...

Paige-Allen
Berry-Kennard
Pinson-Jones
Hicks-Ingram
Johnson-Plumlee

Lots of defensive options for Roy to use to find the defense that works best.

Some things we can be sure of...We all know the rankings can go out the window in this one. We know Duke will play hard...we know they will fire up the deep shots...and we know they will beg for calls in the lane :)

I really hope the refs don't get noticed in this great match up. Let the players settle it. I'm tired about hearing about refs and lame calls this year.

Here's to a fun game!

classic wheat post, meant to provoke with subtle jabs....wheat, talked to a fisherman in Boca Grande...red tide is rampant, may a Duke blue tide envelope the Dean dome tonight...should be a good one

[Dukehky]

Dudes... F these guys. Lets freaking destroy them. Do Jah and Tyus have any eligibility left?

[slower]

...and we know they will beg for calls in the lane :)



Yes, it wouldn't be a Wheat post without at least one passive-aggressive jab.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

classic wheat post, meant to provoke with subtle jabs...wheat, talked to a fisherman in Boca Grande...red tide is rampant, may a Duke blue tide envelope the Dean dome tonight...should be a good one

I have to live with the title of this thread and you guys can't take a little not so subtle jab that I made sure had the smiley attached so you knew, that I knew, that you would know, that I knew, it was a friendly little jab?

It is a rivalry, ya know:)

Red tide not so bad this week in Boca Grande, last week was a little tough.

Still sunny and 75* today on our little island. How's that for a jab!

[FerryFor50]

If ever there was a game to rely on the zone, you'd think it would be tonight. In an ideal world, it would make it harder for Carolina to pound it inside, keep Ingram/MP3 out of foul trouble, slow the game down a bit, and force the Cheats to chuck it from deep, which is not their strength. That said, we've really gone away from the zone lately and rightfully so since it's mostly been pretty bad this year. If they don't zone today, I think it's fair to say that we've seen the last of it in 2016 as a defense that we will rely on to any significant degree in close games.

As others have noted, the battle to keep Ingram/Plumlee out of foul trouble will be key. I am nervous about Ingram's ability to guard Johnson along with the other guys they will run at him without fouling. It's vital that he not pick up cheap fouls tonight.

I disagree.

Justin Jackson would absolutely murder the middle of the zone at the high post with jumpers, baby hooks and drives.

Zones aren't just susceptible to 3s.

[Newton_14]

classic wheat post, meant to provoke with subtle jabs...wheat, talked to a fisherman in Boca Grande...red tide is rampant, may a Duke blue tide envelope the Dean dome tonight...should be a good one

Passive Aggressive is his MO... :) plus whine about refs favoring Duke, (it's always that "one play" in any Duke win that was a bad call/no call that "turned" the game in Duke's favor. They never win a tight game or big game on their own merits)... shocked he didn't throw in the ol "Coach K coaching dirty play, leg kick outs, head snaps, etc"... :)

Plus he never sees a way Duke stays in the game again uncheat no matter the year, the talent level of either team, or how either team is playing coming in, and Duke has never had a real post player. :).

In terms of match ups I did not agree with any tossed out...

Starters
Thornton will guard Berry
Jones will guard Paige
Allen will guard Jackson
Ingram will guard Johnson
Plumlee will guard Meeks

The Ingram/Johnson matchup issues cut both ways. Johnson has an advantage in the post, and Ingram has an advantage on the perimeter, and not just with shooting 3's. Johnson will struggle to guard Ingram off the bounce without fouling.

This game could go a myriad of ways but as I said earlier, the cheats are favored and rightly so. All things being equal, they should win. However, it is not a given. The games against Louisville, Notre Dame, and especially BC, should have shown everyone they are not some super duper juggernaut that can just roll any team they play, good or bad. They have had very few conference games where they blew the opponent off the floor, inclusive of the middling and lower teams in the conference. If Duke plays well, they should have a very good chance to be right there at the end within striking distance and a decent chance to pull the upset.

Strategy-
-Will Duke play mostly man the bulk of the game, or will K mix in the 2-3, 1-2-2, and 1-3-1 along with the man to man? On offense will we try to attack them off the dribble balancing our 2-point and 3-point offense, or will (like every cheat fan in my ear all day thinks) we take an abnormal amount of 3's, and not attack off the dribble often?
-Will Ol Roy stick exclusively with his 2 Big lineups and not worry about the disadvantage that puts them in with guarding Ingram on defense? Or will he play small ball more often with only one big, to offset the Ingram problem and gamble that his small line up is better than Duke's? In the first game in 2008, Roy played two bigs the bulk of the game forcing one of Danny Green and Marcus Ginyard to be on the bench at all times and Duke won, partly because Singler destroyed Deon Thompson. In game two at Cameron, Roy changed and went small playing both Ginyard and Green together a lot with Green at the 4, and Thompson sitting a lot. unCheat pulled out the close win in that game.

So much to look for tonight in the battle of wits between K and Ol Roy tonight, and for which team can impose it's will on the other, dictating style and pace.

As to who wins, part of me has no clue, and part of me thinks unCheat should be able to keep Duke at a distance and win by 6 to 10 points, similar to how our game with Miami went.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

I disagree.

Justin Jackson would absolutely murder the middle of the zone at the high post with jumpers, baby hooks and drives.

Zones aren't just susceptible to 3s.

Brice Johnson carved up the Syracuse zone from the foul line logo. I think you'll see him and Meeks camping out there when Duke goes zone.

[Indoor66]

I have to live with the title of this thread

What the hell, it's our Board! :D:cool: It ain't bad on the East Coast, either.

[riverside6]

Live tempo-based stats for Duke/UNC, starters posted...

http://www.scacchoops.com/duke-at-unc-basketball-live-stats-02172016

[FerryFor50]

Brice Johnson carved up the Syracuse zone from the foul line logo. I think you'll see him and Meeks camping out there when Duke goes zone.

I don't think you see zone unless Duke hits foul trouble or is getting blown out.

[Newton_14]

I don't think you see zone unless Duke hits foul trouble or is getting blown out.

My thoughts as well. I think our goal is to go man to man all the way unless forced out of it.

[DRC]

This is great. Sides of Grayson and Marshall I've not seen before. http://www.goduke.com/ Click on "Featured Video" MBB - Allen's K-Ville Valentines.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

[QUOTE=Newton_14;859733]?..... shocked he didn't throw in the ol "Coach K coaching dirty play, leg kick outs, head snaps, etc"... :

You've never seen me whine about refs.

You've never seen me accuse Duke of playing dirty, or coach K coaching dirty play.

You have seen me state that Duke coaches the leg kicks and the head snaps to sell the foul call.

I recently heard a podcast that was talking about JJ Reddick confirming in his own podcast that Duke players are coached driving to the rim to sell the call with head snaps on contact. (I looked for it but have yet to find it to link it).

Deny it if you want, but it is what it is.

[duke blue brewcrew]

Possibly the best hype video I've see about the Duke/UNC rivalry...enjoy!

https://youtu.be/yVtvjlFA-go

[jipops]

Deny it if you want, but it is what it is.

Pretty sure you and the rest of the tarheel faithful have cornered the market on denial.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Pretty sure you and the rest of the tarheel faithful have cornered the market on denial.

Evidently not.

[rsvman]

looking pretty good so far. need to keep them of their offensive glass.

Luke giving a nice shot of offense off the bench.

[gurufrisbee]

#5 team should beat a #20 team by about 6-7 points.
Home team should beat a road team by 6-7 points.
A full strength team should beat a team without a key starter by 6-7 points.
We should lose by about 20.
If that happens, it will be a long night.
I have faith in Coach K and the boys that it will not.

[rsvman]

this is not good

[downeastdad]

We need Matt back. What happened.

[downeastdad]

Marshall!

[kAzE]

Well, I think now the sky is officially falling

[gurufrisbee]

Looks like Brice Johnson saw how many people around here didn't vote for him for ACC POY.

[NM Duke Fan]

Had not been able to catch a game in ages. I am encouraged by the growth I see on many levels, whatever the outcome of this game. Luke is an amazing shooter at times, Plumlee surprised me with some offensive moves, Brandon is really coming along, even with his rebounding. I think this team is underestimated overall.

Really enjoy Gminiski's commentary, one of the best.

[downeastdad]

Yeah but...Is anybody watching this game? 4 points. Go Duke!

[striker219]

Well, I think now the sky is officially falling

Has anyone mentioned yet that "it's over?" Because I want credit if I'm the first.

[Tripping William]

Fortunate end to the half. Gonna have to steal some minutes from Jeter, box the wanker out, and finish plays (not necessarily in that order) to steal this one.

[gurufrisbee]

Tie game if Ingram doesn't blow two wide open lay ups. Pretty darn amazing concerning everything else (Chapel Hill, Amile, Matt, etc.).

[jipops]

Our guys are already starting to look tired. The cheats may really open this up in the 2nd half.

[rsvman]

I'm more concerned about Jones than I am about the outcome of this game. if we lose this game, we lose this game. if we lose Jones for the season, we lose the season.

[kAzE]

Poor Matt :(

[NYBri]

Any word on Matt? Watching with the sound off because I can't stand ESPN noise makers.

[wilson]

Any word on Matt? Watching with the sound off because I can't stand ESPN noise makers.Shoe off, in the locker room, limited to no weight on the left foot, not expected to return.

[kAzE]

Only that he was carried back to the locker room, can't put weight on the ankle.

[jcannon]

Fees like our only chance will be Chase Jeter becoming the next Duke stretch 4. If Chase can hit a few triples, I think we have a chance.

[Tripping William]

Any word on Matt? Watching with the sound off because I can't stand ESPN noise makers.

"Doubtful" to return tonight. Helped off to the locker room before halftime, with no shoe on and no weight on his foot. Didn't look promising.

[91devil]

First half went as expected. They dominated inside, we spread them and drove to the basket. We missed some shots we should have made, they missed some shots I'm sure think they should have made.

The zone will help with the fatigue. Just need to rebound better. I'd say we are in pretty good shape right now.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Some observations...

Duke shooting it well from deep keeping them in it in the first half.
Roy switched Jackson on Kennard after his hot start and cooled him.
Allen and Ingram dribble drive hurting UNC.
Nate Britt showed the best defense on Allen, looks like quickest player on the floor.

Surprised UNC didn't dribble drive more 1st half. Need to attack and pressure defenders worried about fouls.
Expect to see more plays run for Paige this half and see him drive.

Johnson playing active and smart, avoiding fouls.

Sorry to see Jones go down, nobody likes seeing that. Hope it's not serious.

[wilson]

Some observations...

Duke shooting it well from deep keeping them in it in the first half.
Roy switched Jackson on Kennard after his hot start and cooled him.
Allen and Ingram dribble drive hurting UNC.
Nate Britt showed the best defense on Allen, looks like quickest player on the floor.

Surprised UNC didn't dribble drive more 1st half. Need to attack and pressure defenders worried about fouls.
Expect to see more plays run for Paige this half and see him drive.

Johnson playing active and smart, avoiding fouls.

Sorry to see Jones go down, nobody likes seeing that. Hope it's not serious.The percentage was decent, but Duke isn't really lighting it up from 3 (4-9). We've gotten points from a lot of different places.

[jipops]

Picture perfect flop

[TruBlu]

Picture perfect flop

Unc flops? Unheard of.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Could be a nasty second half. Am I hallucinating or is Amile in warm ups?

[kshepinthehouse]

Picture perfect flop

Yes, marginal contact on that charge.

[91devil]

Hang in there, Duke.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

We need 3 pt miracles to stay in this

[gurufrisbee]

Did the refs not hear about Matt? UNC shouldn't need this much help.

[kAzE]

So it's 4 freshmen and 1 sophomore for the last 15 minutes of the game? Siiiiiiiiighhhh

[kshepinthehouse]

Moving screen

[millerecu]

I am pretty sure the whistle was blown BEFORE any contact on that one.

[jcannon]

Thornton has to knock down those open 3's. Getting good looks.

[bleedingblue88]

They are straight up leaving Thornton wide open with the 3. He's gotta make them pay.

[szstark]

If Bilas says "big time play" one more time against a crippled team, I'm going to puke.

[BlueandWhite]

So it's 4 freshmen and 1 sophomore for the last 15 minutes of the game? Siiiiiiiiighhhh

Well, not exactly as Plums will be back in before too long. This isn't over yet.

[BlueHeaven]

He travelled???? When? Does Carolina need this much help.

[Faison1]

It's funny....at times you can see Jeter's potential....then 30 seconds later, see why he's riding the bench this season.

[vrob90]

NC layups at will all night.Glad it's not a blowout. Yet. Can't complain about the effort. Still have some chance to win.

[Faison1]

Regardless of what happens, I'm impressed.

I see this as a big confidence builder.

You can see the guys are playing a lot smarter now as compared to two months ago....

[barjwr]

Maybe we should be running doubles for Kennard...only one to hit anything from the outside

[91devil]

Quite impressed. Gutty effort here by Duke. Hang tough!

[Dukeford]

It's funny...at times you can see Jeter's potential...then 30 seconds later, see why he's riding the bench this season.

But it's not funny when he flashes off the pick and roll and is wide open in the lane....3 times...and they don't pass him the ball. SMH

[BlueandWhite]

Regardless of what happens, I'm impressed.

I see this as a big confidence builder.

You can see the guys are playing a lot smarter now as compared to two months ago...

Agree 100% -- excellent TEAM effort, Duke came to play hard and to win tonight, ain't over yet...

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

How are ww in this?

[kshepinthehouse]

Foul on Grayson???

[gurufrisbee]

Paige fouls Allen twice on the same play and Allen gets called for it. Carolina paid these refs well at half.

[BlueandWhite]

Foul on Grayson???

Utter and TOTAL BS on the no-call on that HACK by Jackson on Grayson. Ridiculous.

[Faison1]

But it's not funny when he flashes off the pick and roll and is wide open in the lane...3 times...and they don't pass him the ball. SMH

To be fair, they aren't hitting Plumlee either...I'm not sure our offense is geared to pick and roll this year.

Having said that, neither Plumlee or Jeter have demonstrated they can catch a pass in traffic.

[gurufrisbee]

And now Jackson grabs Allen and puts him on the ground with it. Our guys are true warriors tonight.

[Faison1]

That move by Grayson was AWESOME!!!!

More than impressed with these guys!!!!

[kshepinthehouse]

Win or lose you gotta feel this Duke team has some fight in them and can make a run in the tournament. Nice to have guys who can go one on one and score at will.

[NM Duke Fan]

Regardless of what happens, I'm impressed.

I see this as a big confidence builder.

You can see the guys are playing a lot smarter now as compared to two months ago...

Totally agree, I really like this team and am quite proud of how they have handled the evening. They may yet pull this out ... no quit in these players, and Brandon is now in rhythm ...

[Mabdul Doobakus]

We have no business being in this game.

[gurufrisbee]

#20 teams goes on the road to #5, is already down a starter, loses another to injury, and gets hosed by the refs the whole second half - that should be at least a 30 point loss. These guys are fighting hard tonight.

[downeastdad]

Holy poop! Luke.

[NM Duke Fan]

Luke's shooting form is amazing!

[downeastdad]

How about that!