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View Full Version : MBB: Duke vs Virginia (Sat, 2/13/16, 4:30pm ET, ESPN) PreGame and In-Game Thread



Troublemaker
02-11-2016, 11:27 AM
Thanks to some success in the DBR Hoops Wagering contest, I have reason to believe Lady Luck is on my side right now.

So I'm taking a chance and starting a game thread. If Duke loses on Saturday, I will never start another one this season. (Also, it's possible I have no power over these things.)

Put your thoughts about the game in this thread.

Troublemaker
02-11-2016, 11:32 AM
Importing some analysis from the ACC thread:


I expect Duke to be the favorite. The advanced metrics make them slightly better than a pick-em, but what gives me nightmares is the fact that Kennard, Allen, and Ingram are all shooting close to 45% from 3 in ACC home games. And they all can connect from well behind the line. The packline is built to force teams to shoot contested 3s, or VERY DEEP 3s, and this is kind of right in Duke's wheelhouse.

I think our best chance is to pound it in to Gill early and hope he's drawing fouls like it's the 2014 ACC championship game. If Plumlee and (more importantly) Ingram have real foul issues, that's a massive blow to Duke.

I also have some hope that our grinding style on offense, making Allen and Kennard chase our wings off screens nonstop will leave them with a little less lift under their shots by the time we get to the last 10 minutes.

Should be a great game either way!


I would say Ingram is a bit of a line hugger, actually. Where he combats UVA's packline closeouts is with his launchpoint (6'9" height) and impossibly quick release, not his deep range. You're right about Allen and Kennard being able to go a step or two farther out, though, particularly Kennard.


Surging UVA you mean :)
4 teams in a row held to 50 points or less... looks like the UVA D is back to normal.

Saratoga2
02-11-2016, 12:27 PM
The Cavaliers are on a 7 game winning streak and have been playing excellent defense. Tony Bennett should be recognized as one of the best coaches in the ACC and maybe the country. He has his team playing the pack line defense masterfully. He hasn't been able to recruit as well as some of the big time programs, but his kids are good athletes and stay around long enough to understand Bennett's defensive principles. They also are aggressive offensive players and are willing to spend the whole shot clock if necessary finding a good opportunity.

With both Duke and UVa playing well right now it looks to me as a nail biter. It may be decided on the basis of which team can keep their front court players on the floor. Too bad Amile is not yet ready as we could really use him for this one.

Olympic Fan
02-11-2016, 12:36 PM
The Cavaliers are on a 7 game winning streak and have been playing excellent defense. Tony Bennett should be recognized as one of the best coaches in the ACC and maybe the country. He has his team playing the pack line defense masterfully. He hasn't been able to recruit as well as some of the big time programs, but his kids are good athletes and stay around long enough to understand Bennett's defensive principles. They also are aggressive offensive players and are willing to spend the whole shot clock if necessary finding a good opportunity.

With both Duke and UVa playing well right now it looks to me as a nail biter. It may be decided on the basis of which team can keep their front court players on the floor. Too bad Amile is not yet ready as we could really use him for this one.

And you know this how?

Doria
02-11-2016, 12:39 PM
If we can play good defense of our own, I think UVA's slower pace helps us more than in past years where we relied more on transition points. Of course, that said, we still have to be able to score against them in a grind-fest, which is easier said than done. But we are probably the ACC team that's most equipped to do that.

Need a very good, consistent game on both end of the court, and to limit TOs. It's a winnable game for sure, but we can't give the ball away too much. Go Duke!

mo.st.dukie
02-11-2016, 01:12 PM
And you know this how?

yeah, there's definitely been some chatter that Amile might be able to play Saturday. How reliable that chatter is and whether he experiences any setbacks in the days leading up to the game remain to be seen.

MCFinARL
02-11-2016, 02:49 PM
yeah, there's definitely been some chatter that Amile might be able to play Saturday. How reliable that chatter is and whether he experiences any setbacks in the days leading up to the game remain to be seen.

Re Amile, I'm thinking we will know when we know, and not a second before. That being said, given the "still feeling pain" statement Monday, I'm planning to avoid disappointment by assuming Amile will not play Saturday. That way, if he does play, I can be pleasantly surprised.

Troublemaker
02-11-2016, 02:52 PM
If Amile plays on Saturday, I wouldn't be surprised if it's "only" for 10-15 minutes off the bench. (Duke, of course, could've surely used a big man sub like that in Amile's absence, so nothing to scoff at.)

His biggest impact arguably would be emotional, charging up Cameron and lifting up the spirit of the team to see him back out there and playing.

At the same time, the emotion would be need to be managed so that the team doesn't wear itself out early in the game and not have something in reserve down the stretch.

Bob Green
02-11-2016, 02:59 PM
This is Game #2 in a challenging four game stretch against Top 25 opponents. A win is needed to improve to 2-0 as games three and four are on the road. I am optimistic Duke will win because I like the way we match up against the Cavaliers. Matt Jones on Malcolm Brogdon will be key and Derryck Thornton will need a strong defensive performance against London Perrantes. Inside, Brandon Ingram and Marshall Plumlee have the edge over Anthony Gill and whoever (Mike Tobey/Isaiah Wilkins/Jack Salt*). I like Grayson Allen against Devon Hall/Marial Shayok. Of course we constantly switch on defense and will play some zone as well.

On offense, we will need good ball movement including the extra pass to achieve good looks against Virginia's formidable defense. Playing inside out and/or executing the drive and dish is essential. As long as we do not settle on passing the ball around the perimeter and jacking up 3 PT FG attempts deep in the shot clock we will be okay. Virginia is not deep inside so I'd like to see us take the ball at Gill and Tobey looking to create some foul trouble for the Cavaliers.

This is going to be a tough game against a talented opponent. I'm looking forward to watching it and like Duke to extend the winning streak to four games with a six point victory.

* Jack Salt has not played recently so he might be injured or unavailable. Perhaps one of our Wahoo visitors will step in and enlighten me.

CDu
02-11-2016, 03:17 PM
Big test for Duke this weekend. Even bigger, in fact, than the one we just passed against Louisville. UVa is probably the creme de la creme of the ACC right now. They are deep, they are talented, they are well-coached, they are experienced, and they are well-balanced.

Frontcourt: The Wahoos like to play a "traditional" lineup - a center, a PF, and a true SF. They don't like to deviate from this approach. The starting C is Anthony Gill, although he's more of a "traditional" PF. Gill is a terrific player on both ends of the floor. He's a good athlete: strong and physical but also quick and bouncy. He is a pretty decent shooter out to 15-18 feet, and is effective around the basket too. And of course he's tough defensively. He's the only guy who consistently plays starter's minutes. After him, there is a quartet of guys who see some time. Wilkins usually starts alongside Gill. He is a smaller PF with good athleticism. He's not a great scorer, but he's a good defender and can finish around the rim. The third man in the frontcourt rotation is Mike Tobey. He's a big dude: a 7-footer with talent. He can shoot out to 15-18 feet, can finish inside, and can be a presence at times defensively. For whatever reason, though, he's never found his groove consistently as a player. He's all ups and downs, being a monster some games and nonexistent in others. After Tobey, UVa has a few more options. Jack Salt is a 6'11" redshirt freshman from Australia. Salt is big and athletic, but not yet very good at basketball. He, along with Jarred Reuter, plays the minutes-filler role behind the three primary guys. They'll combine for 10-15 mpg depending upon the game flow. And if need be, Evan Nolte will swing up from SF to play a few minutes as a stretch 4.

Wings: UVa has a quartet of guys in the 6'4"-6'5" range that play major minutes. The leader of the group is Malcolm Brogdon. Brogdon is a terrific player. He can shoot from anywhere and is one of the best scorers in the conference. Very efficient player. He's not the greatest ballhandler in the world (he is somewhat robotic in his dribble), but it's certainly not a weakness either. He is unselfish too. He's a player of the year candidate again in the ACC. He's the only guy who consistently plays starter's minutes on the wing. Alongside him are a trio of guys. In the starting lineup is Devon Hall. Hall is not much of a scorer, but is solid defensively. He's an okay shooter from 3pt range and a terrific FT shooter who rarely gets fouled. Nearly half his shots are 3s. Off the bench is Shayok. Shayok is a weird player. He's very athletic and has great size. He's also a terrific shooter from 3pt range, so leaving him open is a bad idea. But he draws no fouls despite his athleticism (9 FT attempts all year). The last of the main wing players is Darius Thompson. Thompson is sort of like Hall, but gets to the line a little more. None of Hall, Thompson, or Shayok are very significant individually, though the trio combines for about 13 ppg in about 55 mpg played. Just solid role players. In the "filling minutes" role is Evan Nolte, who is a stationary shooter and not much more.

PG: The primary PG is London Perrantes. Perrantes has generally been a very good shooter who has historically been reluctant to shoot. That has changed this year. He's shooting over 50% from 3pt range, and he's taking 4 attempts per game this year. He has been a very good player all three years, but this year he's really emerged as a playmaker for the Hoos. He's averaging 11 ppg and over 4 assists per game shooting 46% from the field, 53% from 3, and 80% from the line. And, of course, he's a tough defender. When he is out of the game (which isn't too often), Brogdon and the other wings handle the ball. There is a steep dropoff in PG play without Perrantes, but it's not often noticeable because (a) he plays a lot and (b) UVa's defense is so good.

The Wahoos play the famed pack-line defense, which makes them very tough on dribble penetration. The Cavaliers are extremely physical with drivers. In theory, that should have been legislated out of the game to some degree, but as expected the officials have reverted to old form in 2016. So I'd expect Ingram and Allen and Kennard to have trouble getting to the hoop. The Cavs are a gang rebounding team (due to their pack-line approach), so nobody in particular has a high average but the team as a whole is solid on the defensive boards. If we're hitting 3s (and the Cavs can give up 3s), we can win, but we aren't likely to beat them for offensive rebounds.

On the other end, the Cavs play a very deliberate pace. They aren't going to make a lot of mistakes, and they aren't going to score a ton of points. They limit possessions, are efficient with the ball, and shoot well. And then they tend to forego offensive rebounding to keep defenders back to make you play half-court offense as well. Don't expect an 80-75 score in this one. I'd expect both teams to be in the 60s. UVa has only scored 70+ three times in ACC play, and they've only allowed 70+ twice.

weezie
02-11-2016, 03:30 PM
...Tony Bennett...hasn't been able to recruit as well as some of the big time programs, but his kids are good athletes and stay around long enough to understand Bennett's defensive principles...


Yes, why is his recruiting so difficult? Beautiful arena, good school, plenty of DelMarVaDC exposure, close to Hampton Roads cradles of talent?

Maybe our Wahoo pal who checks in here sometimes can give us an opinion?

Olympic Fan
02-11-2016, 03:42 PM
Yes, why is his recruiting so difficult? Beautiful arena, good school, plenty of DelMarVaDC exposure, close to Hampton Roads cradles of talent?

Maybe our Wahoo pal who checks in here sometimes can give us an opinion?

Not a Wahoo fan, but it might have something to do with his style of play. Not a lot of Big Mac All-Americans want to play slow-tempo, defensive basketball.

Furniture
02-11-2016, 03:48 PM
Thanks to some success in the DBR Hoops Wagering contest, I have reason to believe Lady Luck is on my side right now.

So I'm taking a chance and starting a game thread. If Duke loses on Saturday, I will never start another one this season. (Also, it's possible I have no power over these things.)

Put your thoughts about the game in this thread.

I believe in you Troublemaker!!

Troublemaker
02-11-2016, 03:55 PM
Yes, why is his recruiting so difficult? Beautiful arena, good school, plenty of DelMarVaDC exposure, close to Hampton Roads cradles of talent?

Maybe our Wahoo pal who checks in here sometimes can give us an opinion?

I would say their recruiting is going well. When a program goes from 1996 to 2011 without being much of a factor (spanning the end of Jeff Jones' reign, then Pete Gillen, then Dave Leitao, and the early years of Bennett), it takes awhile to ramp up recruiting. Bennett is competing for 4 stars now whereas before he had to make do with 2 and 3 stars, and he nabbed a highly-coveted transfer in Austin Nichols last offseason. His 2016 class is his best class yet (especially if you include Nichols), and I suppose the next step is to compete for 5 stars and we'll see if he can do that. But they're on a nice track...

MChambers
02-11-2016, 04:03 PM
Not a Wahoo fan, but it might have something to do with his style of play. Not a lot of Big Mac All-Americans want to play slow-tempo, defensive basketball.
"Slow" isn't really the word for it. 350 of 351 schools in tempo. Part of it is defense, of course, but still.

CDu
02-11-2016, 04:22 PM
Not a Wahoo fan, but it might have something to do with his style of play. Not a lot of Big Mac All-Americans want to play slow-tempo, defensive basketball.

Yeah, I'd agree with this. I think that Bennett is also very much a "system" coach. The top-tier guys are usually (not always) looking to get to the NBA as quickly as possible, and that usually doesn't involve taking time to adapt to his system (especially when said system is an incredibly slow and grinding style, not an up-tempo style like UNC). If a star recruit happens to come from a school that has a similar approach to Bennett's, maybe he'll get that guy. But I do wonder if Bennett is better off not getting the top-tier guys.

He's done really well with the second/third-tier recruits (guys more in the Marshall Plumlee ranking range than the Grayson Allen range) in getting them to stay 4-5 years (he redshirts a decent number of guys and gets transfers), and those guys by their 3rd/4th years have really found their strides in the system. Perrantes, Anderson, Gill, Atkins, Harris, and others are examples of this. Brogdon is one of those rare cases of a guy who came in and in his 2nd year (1st active year) was an immediate impact guy.

Given that his success is very much system based, I almost wonder if his model is better suited to NOT look at the one-and-done level talents, but rather focus on middle-tier talent that is will to settle in and learn the system over a few years and then be a true impact player down the line.

English
02-11-2016, 04:32 PM
Yeah, I'd agree with this. I think that Bennett is also very much a "system" coach. The top-tier guys are usually (not always) looking to get to the NBA as quickly as possible, and that usually doesn't involve taking time to adapt to his system (especially when said system is an incredibly slow and grinding style, not an up-tempo style like UNC). If a star recruit happens to come from a school that has a similar approach to Bennett's, maybe he'll get that guy. But I do wonder if Bennett is better off not getting the top-tier guys.

He's done really well with the second/third-tier recruits (guys more in the Marshall Plumlee ranking range than the Grayson Allen range) in getting them to stay 4-5 years (he redshirts a decent number of guys and gets transfers), and those guys by their 3rd/4th years have really found their strides in the system. Perrantes, Anderson, Gill, Atkins, Harris, and others are examples of this. Brogdon is one of those rare cases of a guy who came in and in his 2nd year (1st active year) was an immediate impact guy.

Given that his success is very much system based, I almost wonder if his model is better suited to NOT look at the one-and-done level talents, but rather focus on middle-tier talent that is will to settle in and learn the system over a few years and then be a true impact player down the line.

It would very much surprise me if that wasn't a part or most of Bennett's recruiting pitch to the mid- to low-Top 100 crowd--look at how successful I've made these players who were right around or below your recruiting ranks. Imagine how great you can be coming out of UVa, and how great the UVa team can be with you in a marquee role within the system.

I'd absolutely agree, though, it'd be tough to convince a top-tier recruit who has his sights set on early-entry to join the UVa system and cut his scoring/assists/FGAs per game in half. I'd equally agree that the early-entry recruiting model wouldn't fit the Bennett system, either.

cato
02-11-2016, 04:39 PM
But I do wonder if Bennett is better off not getting the top-tier guys.

Indeed. The recent one and dones at Duke have forced Coach K to do something I never thought I would see: play a deep rotation.

Okay, in all seriousness, we have all seen how adapting to the new pace of departures has forced Coach K to change his most basic signature: his defense. If Duke's man-to-man D is too hard for the one and dones of the world to become proficient in (or at least, those not named Justise), I imagine that Bennett would face a similar challenge with very young teams and high turnover.

CDu
02-11-2016, 04:46 PM
Indeed. The recent one and dones at Duke have forced Coach K to do something I never thought I would see: play a deep rotation.

Okay, in all seriousness, we have all seen how adapting to the new pace of departures has forced Coach K to change his most basic signature: his defense. If Duke's man-to-man D is too hard for the one and dones of the world to become proficient in (or at least, those not named Justise), I imagine that Bennett would face a similar challenge with very young teams and high turnover.

Bennett runs kind of the opposite model of the current Duke model. He basically runs a mid-major style of program but has access to more resources and somewhat better recruits. His teams are always heavy on juniors and seniors (often fourth-year juniors and fifth-year seniors). We've seen how mid-majors can compete to a degree with less talent but more experience and continuity. Well, Bennett's UVa teams are basically mid-majors on steroids (for lack of a better analogy - not implying they are using PEDs). He gets good-but-not-quite-elite recruits who are willing to buy into the long play. So he has a stable of guys who were 50-150ish ranked recruits who - by the time they become starters - are 21-23 years old, more mature bodies with 2-3 or more years in the system. It gets all the benefits of the mid-major program with a definite dropoff in top-tier talent but not such a dropoff that they are mid-major level.

I don't know that Bennett would really want to tackle the challenges of dealing with the one-and-dones of the world. He's perfected his system. I can't see him wanting to risk his system at the chance of adding a few more one-and-dones.

Edouble
02-11-2016, 05:35 PM
I don't know that Bennett would really want to tackle the challenges of dealing with the one-and-dones of the world. He's perfected his system. I can't see him wanting to risk his system at the chance of adding a few more one-and-dones.

If he can't get out of the second weekend of the NCAAs in the next 3-4 years, maybe a risk he would be willing to take.

BobBender
02-11-2016, 05:48 PM
Yeah, I'd agree with this. I think that Bennett is also very much a "system" coach. The top-tier guys are usually (not always) looking to get to the NBA as quickly as possible, and that usually doesn't involve taking time to adapt to his system (especially when said system is an incredibly slow and grinding style, not an up-tempo style like UNC). If a star recruit happens to come from a school that has a similar approach to Bennett's, maybe he'll get that guy. But I do wonder if Bennett is better off not getting the top-tier guys.

He's done really well with the second/third-tier recruits (guys more in the Marshall Plumlee ranking range than the Grayson Allen range) in getting them to stay 4-5 years (he redshirts a decent number of guys and gets transfers), and those guys by their 3rd/4th years have really found their strides in the system. Perrantes, Anderson, Gill, Atkins, Harris, and others are examples of this. Brogdon is one of those rare cases of a guy who came in and in his 2nd year (1st active year) was an immediate impact guy.

Given that his success is very much system based, I almost wonder if his model is better suited to NOT look at the one-and-done level talents, but rather focus on middle-tier talent that is will to settle in and learn the system over a few years and then be a true impact player down the line.

I agree with most comments in this entire thread. But as a fan, I miss having 4 year players at Duke. There is nothing wrong....no, make that there is a lot to like about bringing in guys and watch them grow as players and see continuity in a program. As great as Jabari Parker was, the three stars from last year, and Brandon Ingram is this year, it's a weird era for Duke. There will be new stars next year, and it's just not the same. So I look at Bennett's method as being just 'traditional', rather than 'mid-major on steroids'.

Troublemaker
02-11-2016, 06:12 PM
I agree with most comments in this entire thread. But as a fan, I miss having 4 year players at Duke.

Duke still has plenty of 4 year players, though. I would recommend focusing on guys like MP3, Amile, Matt, etc. I've greatly enjoyed watching their steady growth through the years and only wish that Amile hadn't gotten injured.

Don't be a star fingerer (where you finger a star player as your favorite player and end up disappointed annually when he leaves.)

DarkstarWahoo
02-11-2016, 06:55 PM
Duke still has plenty of 4 year players, though. I would recommend focusing on guys like MP3, Amile, Matt, etc. I've greatly enjoyed watching their steady growth through the years and only wish that Amile hadn't gotten injured.

Don't be a star fingerer (where you finger a star player as your favorite player and end up disappointed annually when he leaves.)

Man, Matt Jones is a "stay and grow" guy for y'all for sure. I swear he roomed with Alaa Abdelnaby back in the day.

NSDukeFan
02-11-2016, 08:43 PM
Re Amile, I'm thinking we will know when we know, and not a second before. That being said, given the "still feeling pain" statement Monday, I'm planning to avoid disappointment by assuming Amile will not play Saturday. That way, if he does play, I can be pleasantly surprised.


Man, Matt Jones is a "stay and grow" guy for y'all for sure. I swear he roomed with Alaa Abdelnaby back in the day.

Matt and Alaa may have grown up together, but I don't think they were roommates. That's pure speculation. 😉

Jake
02-11-2016, 08:48 PM
The Cavaliers are on a 7 game winning streak and have been playing excellent defense. Tony Bennett should be recognized as one of the best coaches in the ACC and maybe the country. He has his team playing the pack line defense masterfully. He hasn't been able to recruit as well as some of the big time programs, but his kids are good athletes and stay around long enough to understand Bennett's defensive principles. They also are aggressive offensive players and are willing to spend the whole shot clock if necessary finding a good opportunity.

With both Duke and UVa playing well right now it looks to me as a nail biter. It may be decided on the basis of which team can keep their front court players on the floor. Too bad Amile is not yet ready as we could really use him for this one.

Don't look now but UVA has a top 10 recruiting class for next year. And that's with high 4/5* Mamadi Diakite having reclassified to 2015 to redshirt this year.

Tripping William
02-11-2016, 09:13 PM
Saturday is Coach K's 69th birthday. If his team can score as many points as he has years, it will win.

-jk
02-11-2016, 10:05 PM
Don't look now but UVA has a top 10 recruiting class for next year. And that's with high 4/5* Mamadi Diakite having reclassified to 2015 to redshirt this year.

Who's in the class? (Wait - it should be in the recruiting thread!)

-jk

akg4y
02-12-2016, 04:11 AM
Who's in the class? (Wait - it should be in the recruiting thread!)

-jk


Kyle Guy - Burger Boy ESPN #24 overall
Ty Jerome - ESPN #42
Jay Huff - ESPN #71
Mamadi Diakate (reclassified to redshirt 2015) - ESPN #37
DeAndre Hunter - ESPN #82

Transfer: Austin Nichols (prior 5* recruit), 2 years of eligibility left. ESPN #15

We also had Sacha Killeya-Jones verbally committed but momma Jones got spooked about playing time once Mamadi got on the scene and made him bail for KY.


One and done's in general I dont think would work out for us... Perrantes is really the only player who logged significant starter minutes as a 1st year, it takes more than a year to really become comfortable in our defensive system. Wilkins took a major step forward this year defensively and thats why now he's a starter as a 2nd year. Bennett has said he's not opposed to 1 and dones, and has put out offers to players who are most likely going to be 1 and dones, however it remains to be seen how they would integrate, and whether or not they would really get the minutes they expect. That by itself probably keeps us from getting those commits... although as was mentioned in some of the posts above, it really does feel nice to have senior leaders and go to senior night to cheer on guys youve been watching progress and have helped your team succeed for 4 years, sometimes 5.

With regards to Bennett getting booted in the 2nd round repeatedly... keep in mind that each of the last 2 years we didnt really get upset. We played MSU teams that were underseeded both years... they were picked to win the whole thing 2 years ago even as a 4 seed and we lost in the Sweet 16, losing a heartbreakingly close game against maybe the only team in the tourney that posed a significant matchup problem for us. Last year we lost in the 2nd round to a #7 seed MSU team that reached the Final Four, again in a heartbreaker and we hadnt quite recovered from Justin Anderson's injury and reintegrated him back into our flow.

This year it needs to be UVA-MSU in the championship game and we need to kick them in the nuts.

akg4y
02-12-2016, 04:18 AM
Yes, why is his recruiting so difficult? Beautiful arena, good school, plenty of DelMarVaDC exposure, close to Hampton Roads cradles of talent?

Maybe our Wahoo pal who checks in here sometimes can give us an opinion?


We're pretty much getting who Bennett wants at this point, so I wouldnt say recruiting is difficult. He doesnt go after many of the top 10-20 recruits... and the amazing thing is this year the guys that we signed were 70-150 when he started going after them, but now 2 of them are top 45, and two that were >100 are both top 85 now. He seems to have a knack for identifying talent early. SKJ verbally committed to us when he was in the 80s but then reneged as I mentioned above because of Mamadi, and now he's going to KY at #27 overall. The only players I would say that UVA fans have been hopeful for that we havent gotten have been a few 5* recruits, many of which wouldnt have been 4 year players and so that probably factored in significantly in their decisions not to come to UVA. Id say at a *minimum* we need players that expect to be there 2 years.

killerleft
02-12-2016, 08:39 AM
I agree with most comments in this entire thread. But as a fan, I miss having 4 year players at Duke. There is nothing wrong...no, make that there is a lot to like about bringing in guys and watch them grow as players and see continuity in a program. As great as Jabari Parker was, the three stars from last year, and Brandon Ingram is this year, it's a weird era for Duke. There will be new stars next year, and it's just not the same. So I look at Bennett's method as being just 'traditional', rather than 'mid-major on steroids'.

I don't make it a point to subject other programs to close scruitiny, unless it the Chapaheeyans and they're being particularly stupid like they mostly are. But I'm almost certain that Tony Bennett is not turning away the likes of Jahlil Okafor or Jabari Parker so he can do it the traditional way. He is just very good at putting teams together with what he ends up having to work with.

MCFinARL
02-12-2016, 09:38 AM
Kyle Guy - Burger Boy ESPN #24 overall
Ty Jerome - ESPN #42
Jay Huff - ESPN #71
Mamadi Diakate (reclassified to redshirt 2015) - ESPN #37
DeAndre Hunter - ESPN #82

Transfer: Austin Nichols (prior 5* recruit), 2 years of eligibility left. ESPN #15

We also had Sacha Killeya-Jones verbally committed but momma Jones got spooked about playing time once Mamadi got on the scene and made him bail for KY.


One and done's in general I dont think would work out for us... Perrantes is really the only player who logged significant starter minutes as a 1st year, it takes more than a year to really become comfortable in our defensive system. Wilkins took a major step forward this year defensively and thats why now he's a starter as a 2nd year. Bennett has said he's not opposed to 1 and dones, and has put out offers to players who are most likely going to be 1 and dones, however it remains to be seen how they would integrate, and whether or not they would really get the minutes they expect. That by itself probably keeps us from getting those commits... although as was mentioned in some of the posts above, it really does feel nice to have senior leaders and go to senior night to cheer on guys youve been watching progress and have helped your team succeed for 4 years, sometimes 5.

With regards to Bennett getting booted in the 2nd round repeatedly... keep in mind that each of the last 2 years we didnt really get upset. We played MSU teams that were underseeded both years... they were picked to win the whole thing 2 years ago even as a 4 seed and we lost in the Sweet 16, losing a heartbreakingly close game against maybe the only team in the tourney that posed a significant matchup problem for us. Last year we lost in the 2nd round to a #7 seed MSU team that reached the Final Four, again in a heartbreaker and we hadnt quite recovered from Justin Anderson's injury and reintegrated him back into our flow.

This year it needs to be UVA-MSU in the championship game and we need to kick them in the nuts.

Leaving out your last sentence, where of course I hope to see Duke in the championship game, I think you make some good points here. MSU is a scary team to see in your bracket, as they so often play brilliantly in the tournament after up-and-down seasons that leave them under seeded.

And I think you did have some difficulty reintegrating Justin Anderson last year, as Duke had in the tournament when Kyrie Irving came back in 2011. UVA had adjusted pretty well to playing without him.

Doria
02-12-2016, 11:58 AM
That looks like a very good recruiting class for UVA. Kudos and congrats :)

I'll be pulling for them, tomorrow obviously excepted.

Troublemaker
02-12-2016, 12:36 PM
One of the keys to the game will be how big a matchup problem Ingram turns out to be for UVA - will he cause big headaches, or will he turn out to be not that big a deal to them?

UVA fans are used to stretch 4s picking-and-popping being somewhat problematic for their defense, and he'll do some of that.

However, the more interesting and possibly even more problematic utilization of Ingram is as the ball-handler in the pick-n-roll. UVA will usually hard-hedge the pick-n-roll, so in a matchup with Ingram, UVA will very often have PF Wilkins and C Gill beyond the 3-pt line trapping Ingram, and Duke will have a 4-on-3 advantage behind them.

Is UVA's hard hedge going to be effective against a 6'9" ballhandler with a 7'3" wingspan who can find passing angles that 6'2" point guards can't? Can freshman Ingram deal with the hard hedge, see the court, and pick out the optimum Blue Devil to pass to that can take advantage of the momentary 4-on-3 situation? Sometimes it'll be MP3 at the rim for a dunk. Sometimes it'll be a wing shooter. The pass doesn't need to result in an open shot immediately. If it goes to Grayson, he can attack the closeout via penetration, for example.

If UVA switches instead of hard hedging, can Ingram take advantage of going 1-on-1 against Gill?

Doria
02-12-2016, 12:55 PM
Ingram against Gill would be an interesting matchup, offensively.

Taking into account switches, who do you think we put on Brogden?

English
02-12-2016, 01:00 PM
However, the more interesting and possibly even more problematic utilization of Ingram is as the ball-handler in the pick-n-roll. UVA will usually hard-hedge the pick-n-roll, so in a matchup with Ingram, UVA will very often have PF Wilkins and C Gill beyond the 3-pt line trapping Ingram, and Duke will have a 4-on-3 advantage behind them.

Is UVA's hard hedge going to be effective against a 6'9" ballhandler with a 7'3" wingspan who can find passing angles that 6'2" point guards can't? Can freshman Ingram deal with the hard hedge, see the court, and pick out the optimum Blue Devil to pass to that can take advantage of the momentary 4-on-3 situation? Sometimes it'll be MP3 at the rim for a dunk. Sometimes it'll be a wing shooter. The pass doesn't need to result in an open shot immediately. If it goes to Grayson, he can attack the closeout via penetration, for example.

If UVA switches instead of hard hedging, can Ingram take advantage of going 1-on-1 against Gill?

I find myself more and more relieved that we have several days between the UofL game and the upcoming UVa game for a couple of reasons--first and most obvious, the rest is invaluable. With keys players getting so much burn, each day of rest is crucial. I think we all have seen Duke struggle on some back-ends of quick turaround games (e.g., Miami, Cuse).

But perhaps as important, it gives the coaching staff practice time to gameplan and familiarize the younger guys for the pack-line. I thought during the Cuse game (again, the second game in quick succession), the guys didn't react well to the Cuse zone and resorted to jacking up contested 3's late in the shot clock after simply passing around the perimeter to that point. We shot poorly, but we also shot 60,000 3-pt that game*. It appeared to my layman's eye that there wasn't an ingrained gameplan to break down the zone. This way, the staff can hammer home a gameplan that the guys can learn and implement in the nearly week-long turnaround. I very much look forward to seeing how K and staff adjust to deploy Ingram against the stout D. If anyone is a game changer in this matchup, it's him--and I don't think I'm alone in enjoying BI coming into his own as the season progresses.

IMHO, the keys will be 1) ball control; 2) capitalizing on the open shot off an extra pass; 3) forcing UVa into contested shots; 4) rebounding. I think we score 68, we win--obviously easier said than done.


* All numbers approximate

CDu
02-12-2016, 01:05 PM
I agree with those that say Ingram is the key. That's true on both ends. Ingram is the guy that creates headaches for a team that doesn't like to have their bigs stretched so far out on the perimeter. If he is playing well and stays out of foul trouble, he can be the key to victory.

The key will be him avoiding foul trouble, especially when UVa moves Gill to the PF spot and has Tobey in the game. Gill is a handful, and could easily draw fouls on Ingram in the post. But that would put Gill on Ingram on the other end, which is a matchup Ingram HAS to work hard to exploit.

I especially like the 4/5 pick and roll game whenever Tobey or Salt is in the game.

Troublemaker
02-12-2016, 01:10 PM
Ingram against Gill would be an interesting matchup, offensively.

Taking into account switches, who do you think we put on Brogden?

Oh, I think it's almost a lock that Matt will be on Brogdon.

One of the great things about Derryck's recent improvement (which basically amounts to not being a mess on offense so that he can stay on the court for his defense on the PG) is that it's allowed Matt to play more wing defense which he's very good at. He slowed down both Georges-Hunt and Damion Lee, for example. Of course, Brogdon will be Matt's biggest test yet, as he's quite possibly the best player in the ACC. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Derryck's matchup against PG Perrantes will key, too. Perrantes isn't going to threaten Derryck with penetration very often, but he's great at using flare screens and off-ball movement in general to free himself up for his 3-pt shot; Perrantes is a 53% 3-pt shooter. "Stay in front" defense is different from "chase around screens" defense, and we'll see if Derryck is up to the task for the latter.

There's definitely a scenario where Grayson will have to play Perrantes and Derryck will be sent to the bench for Luke because Luke's shooting will be more valuable than Derryck's defense in this game.

kAzE
02-12-2016, 01:17 PM
Oh, I think it's almost a lock that Matt will be on Brogdon.

One of the great things about Derryck's recent improvement (which basically amounts to not being a mess on offense so that he can stay on the court for his defense on the PG) is that it's allowed Matt to play more wing defense which he's very good at. He slowed down both Georges-Hunt and Damion Lee, for example. Of course, Brogdon will be Matt's biggest test yet, as he's quite possibly the best player in the ACC. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Derryck's matchup against PG Perrantes will key, too. Perrantes isn't going to threaten Derryck with penetration very often, but he's great at using flare screens and off-ball movement in general to free himself up for his 3-pt shot; Perrantes is a 53% 3-pt shooter. "Stay in front" defense is different from "chase around screens" defense, and we'll see if Derryck is up to the task for the latter.

There's definitely a scenario where Grayson will have to play Perrantes and Derryck will be sent to the bench for Luke because Luke's shooting will be more valuable than Derryck's defense in this game.

Derryck better bring a helmet . . . he's been getting absolutely annihilated on screens lately. Somebody call those picks!

gumbomoop
02-12-2016, 01:22 PM
I admire Bennett, a lot. On some forgotten "Who's your second favorite ACC team thread," I voted for UVa, and would again, because of Bennett.

As for tomorrow's matchups, good points in recent ^ posts, and a belated thanks to CDu for a steady series of scouting reports on our opponents. Recommend his post #10 in this thread on the Hoos.

Eight is almost enough for Bennett, though I suppose we might see Nolte as the 9th for a few minutes. I tend to think of our matchup problem as mostly the obvious one of numbers. Essentially we need Thornton to play close to 30 minutes against the very good Perrantes, who's become a remarkably proficient 3-bomber, as well as a steady all-around guy. Big advantage to UVa, potentially.

On the wings, not counting Nolte, Hoos have 4 guys who play important minutes to our 3. Kennard can't be sub-par tomorrow, can't miss shots, make a bad pass, allow the ball even to graze the rim on a free throw, play just 12-15 minutes, as both Grayson and Matt will need a little rest, and we can't count on Derryck for 40 minutes.

Speaking of which. Krzyzewski seems to be counting on Brandon for 38-40 minutes pretty regularly now. Among the deciding factors will be whether Gill, Wilkins, and Tobey can wear down our only 2 inside guys. I think I recall a mini-trend in the last few games, whereby K takes Plumlee out a couple of times each half in a dead-ball situation just before one of the scheduled "under" breaks. So, even though it's fair to say K goes with a 6-man rotation, it seems he's comfortable using Jeter in a very limited but strategic way to give Marshall just a little extra rest twice in each half. Yes?

Is Brandon as much as Grayson a never-gets-tired "Havlicek"? Can UVa wear Brandon down?

Hoo in Maryland
02-12-2016, 01:28 PM
to see the characterizations here of recent Virginia teams, recruiting, and athleticism. Joe Harris, Justin Anderson, and Mike Scott are in the NBA (Harris is hurt and will hopefully catch on somewhere), and I'd like to think Brogdon will be too (though I doubt he'll get it, he deserves serious consideration for ACC POY and even NPOY). Yes, Bennett has turned mid-level recruits into top-shelf/ all-ACC players (Perrantes, Akil Mitchell, Darion Atkins), but that's a testament to either his coaching prowess or his eye for talent. I think the national media buys into the idea that Virginia is a Hoosiers-type collection of only marginally athletic players, but that really overlooks the talent that has been assembled (this talent is looking for its third straight regular season championship and second tournament championship in three years). And, as noted, the incoming class is going to be as strong as the ones who are leaving this year (Brogdon , Tobey, Gill (x-fer), Nolte; Anderson was in that class too but left one year early). So, maybe not one-and-dones, but hardly ragtag overachievers.

Troublemaker
02-12-2016, 01:44 PM
Duke has opened as 2-pt favorites over the Hoos (http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/)

I made a bet on Duke in the Wagering Contest because I suspect Duke will settle in as a 2.5 to 3.5-pt favorite. (Although I'm often wrong).

Doria
02-12-2016, 01:51 PM
Yeah, avoiding foul trouble is key, but to me, that really goes under the general heading: we just cannot make mistakes and we need a solid offensive game: We can't commit silly fouls, we can't turn the ball over, we need to hit our 3s (more importantly, we need to generate good looks on all our shots), we need solid switches on defense, etc.

We can absolutely win this game, and at home with good rest/prep time, we really should. But UVA rarely beats themselves. We must go out there and get it done. Really looking forward to this game, albeit with cautious optimism.

(And yeah, I'd kind of like to see a game where Derryck isn't leveled by a halfcourt screen, just for variety's sake.)

Troublemaker
02-12-2016, 01:51 PM
Taking into account switches, who do you think we put on Brogden?

One of the things I should've mentioned is that when defending a great player like Brogdon, it really takes a team effort. I believe Matt can chase Brogdon around screens and chase him off the 3-pt line after a flare screen better than 95% of the guards Brogdon will face, but those actions will leave Matt in a vulnerable position for penetration sometimes. MP3 and Brandon (and maybe Amile) will have to have Matt's back and rim-protect in those situations, especially since UVA doesn't have big men that will stretch you out to the 3-pt line. Tobey can hit long 2s? Let him. In general, UVA doesn't shy away from taking midrange 2s and long 2s. If they can hit those efficiently, then you doff your cap. But, as with most modern defenses, you want to protect first and foremost against the open 3 and the easy layup, and we'll need a coordinated team defense to do so.

Doria
02-12-2016, 01:53 PM
Thanks to some success in the DBR Hoops Wagering contest, I have reason to believe Lady Luck is on my side right now.


I made a bet on Duke in the Wagering Contest because I suspect Duke will settle in as a 2.5 to 3.5-pt favorite. (Although I'm often wrong).

No, no, no, no. You can't be wrong!

CameronDuke
02-12-2016, 01:55 PM
Virginia is my second favorite ACC team behind Duke. I've followed them since the Terry Holland, Jeff Jones, Pete Gillen, and Dave Leitao days. They have come a long way in a short time under Tony Bennett since the awful years of the mid 2000s when the program was pretty bad under Gillen his last few years and then Leitao. Bennett is a star now in my mind in the college hoops world. He seems to be happy at Virginia and has built a program there. Some have suggested he may go back home to Wisconsin where he is from and might take the Wisconsin job but I think he will be at Virginia for a long time. Virginia could always recruit high level players - Majestic Mapp, Chris Williams, Travis Watson, Elton Brown, Todd Billet, Sylven Landesburg, Roger Mason, Sean Singletary, JR Reynolds to name a few. Those guys could all play. Bennett, like others have said, has put Joe Harris and Mike Scott in the NBA. Both were terrific at Virginia. I respect what he has done at Virginia and find him the most likable coach other than Coach K in the league.

I want to see Ingram take over tomorrow. I don't see anyone for Virginia that matches up with him. If he can get the ball at the top of the key and back a smaller defender down, or dribble around a bigger defender and find a shot or pass off the dribble, Duke will have a shot. Gill is a good big man for them but he lacks focus sometimes. However, I think all Virginia players will be ready to go tomorrow. They have played extremely well since almost losing at Wake Forest when they hit a banked in 3 from the corner to win at the buzzer. If that shot doesn't go in, I think their season could have been altered severely for a negative track. It went in though, and I predicted they would win the ACC after it. If you didn't see it, it was a season changing shot and win for them. Since then, they have played the best basketball in the league.

Brogdon is going to be a problem tomorrow. Hopefully, Matty and Grayson can switch up on him and not get too tired by the end of the game. He's in constant motion when he doesn't have the ball and is extremely physical and strong when he brings the ball up. I admire Brogdon's game. Thornton will likely draw Perrantes, who is capable of getting hot from 3 and taking the game over. Tobey is a 7 footer for Virginia that when focused, can bang down low on the glass and get some easy dunks and put backs. If he brings it tomorrow, he could get 4-5 easy layups around the rim. Marshall will need to play like a senior and be ready for some physicality in the paint.

We just need to not panic during double teams and take care of the ball. Getting a clean look against Virginia's defense is tough but not impossible. It would help if Matty and Luke could each hit three 3s to go along with two from Grayson and Ingram. I think we need to hit 10 3s tomorrow to win. If we hit 10 3s while shooting over 40% from deep, I think we win. I'd be surprised to see either team score over 70 points.

Troublemaker
02-12-2016, 01:57 PM
Kennard can't be sub-par tomorrow, can't miss shots, make a bad pass, allow the ball even to graze the rim on a free throw, play just 12-15 minutes, as both Grayson and Matt will need a little rest, and we can't count on Derryck for 40 minutes.

The state of Luke's shot is another key for tomorrow. If he's cooking like he was two games ago against NCSU, Duke has a chance to win comfortably.

Doria
02-12-2016, 02:06 PM
I think we can realistically neutralize Brogdon in the sense that we neutralized Cat Barber. He's certainly going to get points, but we have to make him work for them and take less than optimal shots, hoping he misses a good percentage.

I also hope for one of those games where Gill is kind of periodically MIA. Conversely, Grayson needs to be involved in a positive manner for the entire game, even if he's getting mugged and even if his shot isn't falling during some stretches.

Perrantes... Man, he's just playing so well. I know his shot is there this season, but I'm more worried about his playmaking abilities. Unlike Barber, Perrantes has teammates he can pass to and reasonably expect them to score.

Very interested to see the defensive sets we run tomorrow. I'm sure Coach K will put together a solid plan. The team just needs to execute it as a team. We've shown we can rebound, for example. Now we need to show we can play very solid team ball for two halves. Go Duke!

kAzE
02-12-2016, 02:08 PM
Wow there's a lot of optimism in here. I like our chances at home, but UVA is the best team in the ACC, and the #2 team in the country on KenPom. To win comfortably, a lot of things will have to break our way (Brandon stays out of foul trouble, Luke shoots well, Brogdon stays in check, etc.). That's a lot of "ifs."

I think it will be a tough, grind it out game that will come down to just a few possessions in the end. Both of these teams are playing well right now. I hope Cameron will make it extra difficult for the Cavaliers.

CDu
02-12-2016, 02:09 PM
to see the characterizations here of recent Virginia teams, recruiting, and athleticism. Joe Harris, Justin Anderson, and Mike Scott are in the NBA (Harris is hurt and will hopefully catch on somewhere), and I'd like to think Brogdon will be too (though I doubt he'll get it, he deserves serious consideration for ACC POY and even NPOY). Yes, Bennett has turned mid-level recruits into top-shelf/ all-ACC players (Perrantes, Akil Mitchell, Darion Atkins), but that's a testament to either his coaching prowess or his eye for talent. I think the national media buys into the idea that Virginia is a Hoosiers-type collection of only marginally athletic players, but that really overlooks the talent that has been assembled (this talent is looking for its third straight regular season championship and second tournament championship in three years). And, as noted, the incoming class is going to be as strong as the ones who are leaving this year (Brogdon , Tobey, Gill (x-fer), Nolte; Anderson was in that class too but left one year early). So, maybe not one-and-dones, but hardly ragtag overachievers.

They definitely aren't "ragtag overachievers." But what Bennett has done at UVa is consistently get good athletes who weren't top-tier recruits and develop them over time. I mentioned in my post that he has had tremendous success in getting guys in the #50-150 recruit range, and having those guys pan out.

Justin Anderson, for example, was the #48 rated player in his class (2012). He was a freak athlete who didn't have the basketball skills to be near the top of the class. But he went to UVa, bought in, and really improved as a shooter over his time at school, and maximized it with a big junior year. Joe Harris, Mike Scott, and Anthony Gill didn't crack the top-100 of RSCI, but probably weren't too far outside. On the current team, only Evan Nolte (#74 in 2012), Mike Tobey (#92 in 2012), and Malcolm Brogdon (#94 in 2011) cracked the top-100 in RSCI. And none of them were that highly rated.

The talent that UVa does get is better than the talent at a mid-major, but it most certainly hasn't been as highly thought of as the talent that your typical top-5/10 team is targeting. Kansas, UNC, Duke, and Kentucky are recruiting on a different level. Those teams (aside from UNC) are facing much more turnover as a result, whereas UVa is comfortably in the next tier (or two) down on the recruiting ladder but gets those guys to stay and improve over time.

CDu
02-12-2016, 02:12 PM
Wow there's a lot of optimism in here. I like our chances at home, but UVA is the best team in the ACC, and the #2 team in the country on KenPom. To win comfortably, a lot of things will have to break our way (Brandon stays out of foul trouble, Luke shoots well, Brogdon stays in check, etc.). That's a lot of "ifs."

I think it will be a tough, grind it out game that will come down to just a few possessions in the end. Both of these teams are playing well right now. I hope Cameron will make it extra difficult for the Cavaliers.

I don't expect a win tomorrow, for the reasons you have listed above regarding UVa. They are VERY good. And they're well-organized on both ends of the court. Every possession is a battle. That being said, because of our potential to shoot the lights out, and because of Ingram as an absolute wild card of a matchup, it would not surprise me at all for us to beat UVa.

If we played them 50 times on a neutral court, I think they'd win 30 with the rosters as it stands. But in a one-game series (especially with that game in Cameron), we certainly can come out on top.

Hoo in Maryland
02-12-2016, 02:33 PM
They definitely aren't "ragtag overachievers." But what Bennett has done at UVa is consistently get good athletes who weren't top-tier recruits and develop them over time. I mentioned in my post that he has had tremendous success in getting guys in the #50-150 recruit range, and having those guys pan out.

Justin Anderson, for example, was the #48 rated player in his class (2012). He was a freak athlete who didn't have the basketball skills to be near the top of the class. But he went to UVa, bought in, and really improved as a shooter over his time at school, and maximized it with a big junior year. Joe Harris, Mike Scott, and Anthony Gill didn't crack the top-100 of RSCI, but probably weren't too far outside. On the current team, only Evan Nolte (#74 in 2012), Mike Tobey (#92 in 2012), and Malcolm Brogdon (#94 in 2011) cracked the top-100 in RSCI. And none of them were that highly rated.

The talent that UVa does get is better than the talent at a mid-major, but it most certainly hasn't been as highly thought of as the talent that your typical top-5/10 team is targeting. Kansas, UNC, Duke, and Kentucky are recruiting on a different level. Those teams (aside from UNC) are facing much more turnover as a result, whereas UVa is comfortably in the next tier (or two) down on the recruiting ladder but gets those guys to stay and improve over time.


All that is true, but the fact that there are more than 100 players "ranked" ahead of guys making the NBA should make you consider whether those rankings have any basis in reality. I understand that they're just a prediction, but they are also a self-fulfilling prophesy. I'm not convinced that Justin Anderson was less talented than 47 guys in his class; just that he was regarded as such by certain people. As a result, I'm not convinced that the Virginia roster was less talented on day 1 than the vast majority of other schools. Either way, Bennett is either an exceptionally good talent evaluator or skills developer. Probably a healthy combination of both. And, what doesn't get mentioned, and what probably doesn't figure much into the rankings, is that Bennett doesn't seem to go after (or at least give playing time to) guys who aren't willing to commit to playing defense.

vick
02-12-2016, 02:39 PM
to see the characterizations here of recent Virginia teams, recruiting, and athleticism. Joe Harris, Justin Anderson, and Mike Scott are in the NBA (Harris is hurt and will hopefully catch on somewhere), and I'd like to think Brogdon will be too (though I doubt he'll get it, he deserves serious consideration for ACC POY and even NPOY). Yes, Bennett has turned mid-level recruits into top-shelf/ all-ACC players (Perrantes, Akil Mitchell, Darion Atkins), but that's a testament to either his coaching prowess or his eye for talent. I think the national media buys into the idea that Virginia is a Hoosiers-type collection of only marginally athletic players, but that really overlooks the talent that has been assembled (this talent is looking for its third straight regular season championship and second tournament championship in three years). And, as noted, the incoming class is going to be as strong as the ones who are leaving this year (Brogdon , Tobey, Gill (x-fer), Nolte; Anderson was in that class too but left one year early). So, maybe not one-and-dones, but hardly ragtag overachievers.

I think this year he'll get the serious consideration he's deserved previously. Certainly UNC's slide isn't helping Johnson (nor is Johnson's slide helping UNC!), and Barber's weak team will cost him votes (sorry State fans, but he's not anywhere near as valuable on offense as Erick Green was). Grayson strikes me as the only other player with a viable case right now, but it feels pretty close between them, and given the choice of a fifth-year senior and defensive stalwart, I bet Malcolm would get lots of votes. Still tons of ball to be played and things can change, of course.

DarkstarWahoo
02-12-2016, 03:15 PM
I want to see Ingram take over tomorrow. I don't see anyone for Virginia that matches up with him. If he can get the ball at the top of the key and back a smaller defender down, or dribble around a bigger defender and find a shot or pass off the dribble, Duke will have a shot. Gill is a good big man for them but he lacks focus sometimes. However, I think all Virginia players will be ready to go tomorrow. They have played extremely well since almost losing at Wake Forest when they hit a banked in 3 from the corner to win at the buzzer. If that shot doesn't go in, I think their season could have been altered severely for a negative track. It went in though, and I predicted they would win the ACC after it. If you didn't see it, it was a season changing shot and win for them. Since then, they have played the best basketball in the league.

Brogdon is going to be a problem tomorrow. Hopefully, Matty and Grayson can switch up on him and not get too tired by the end of the game. He's in constant motion when he doesn't have the ball and is extremely physical and strong when he brings the ball up. I admire Brogdon's game. Thornton will likely draw Perrantes, who is capable of getting hot from 3 and taking the game over. Tobey is a 7 footer for Virginia that when focused, can bang down low on the glass and get some easy dunks and put backs. If he brings it tomorrow, he could get 4-5 easy layups around the rim. Marshall will need to play like a senior and be ready for some physicality in the paint.

Ingram is going to be a problem. He will probably get that smaller defender, since Isaiah Wilkins will probably draw him to start. And he can be taken to the rim, although he's got the athleticism to stay in front.

The Brogdon-Allen matchup will be one to watch. The upper hand might be determined by how much energy each expends guarding the other. Brogdon has the edge in strength, but he'll be chasing Allen around screens all game long. I'm not sure I expect him to play quite as well as he has recently, when he has been THAT DUDE. He'll get points, but it might be a 4-17, 14 points kind of game, which he's prone to. If it's like that and not the hyperefficient games he's been having, they'll need a big game from Perrantes or someone unexpected.

CDu
02-12-2016, 03:37 PM
All that is true, but the fact that there are more than 100 players "ranked" ahead of guys making the NBA should make you consider whether those rankings have any basis in reality. I understand that they're just a prediction, but they are also a self-fulfilling prophesy. I'm not convinced that Justin Anderson was less talented than 47 guys in his class; just that he was regarded as such by certain people. As a result, I'm not convinced that the Virginia roster was less talented on day 1 than the vast majority of other schools. Either way, Bennett is either an exceptionally good talent evaluator or skills developer. Probably a healthy combination of both. And, what doesn't get mentioned, and what probably doesn't figure much into the rankings, is that Bennett doesn't seem to go after (or at least give playing time to) guys who aren't willing to commit to playing defense.

I think Anderson's ranking was about right. He was a freakish athlete with no basketball skills coming into college. Heck, I might STILL argue he's about the 47th best player in that class. He just happened to have a monster start to his junior year, and parlayed that into a draft pick. There are at least 20 other guys from that class in the NBA as well (not including Isaiah Austin who had to retire before he got drafted), and another 15-20 still in school that should play in the NBA. Similar story for Joe Harris and Mike Scott, who were in over their heads as freshmen. Heck, Brogdon didn't even play as a freshman due to redshirting, so it's hard to know if he was rated properly or not.

But yes, Bennett has done a pretty good job of identifying talent on the next tier and developing it. He always seems to have a couple of guys "click" in each of his last several seasons. First it was Sylven Landesburg and Mike Scott. Then Joe Harris joined Scott replacing Landesburg. Then Akil Mitchell joined Harris replacing Scott. Then Gill and Atkins replaced Mitchell and Brogdon joined Harris. Then Anderson replaced Harris. They haven't exactly replaced Atkins and Anderson, but Perrantes has stepped up at PG and they have enough depth everywhere to make up for Atkins. And the rest of the nation is in a bit of a down year.

So he pretty much has found a way to make 1 or 2 guys stick out of a mid-tier recruiting class of 3 or 4 guys. That is a pretty good hit rate. And now he'll be sprinkling in some upper-tier talent (Nichols was a top-20 recruit before transferring to UVa). If he can keep those guys for 3-4 years too, he'll really have something.

CDu
02-12-2016, 03:41 PM
Ingram is going to be a problem. He will probably get that smaller defender, since Isaiah Wilkins will probably draw him to start. And he can be taken to the rim, although he's got the athleticism to stay in front.

The Brogdon-Allen matchup will be one to watch. The upper hand might be determined by how much energy each expends guarding the other. Brogdon has the edge in strength, but he'll be chasing Allen around screens all game long. I'm not sure I expect him to play quite as well as he has recently, when he has been THAT DUDE. He'll get points, but it might be a 4-17, 14 points kind of game, which he's prone to. If it's like that and not the hyperefficient games he's been having, they'll need a big game from Perrantes or someone unexpected.

I would expect Duke to put Matt Jones on Brogdon rather than Allen. We'll probably put Allen on Hall/Thompson/Shayok. I think that Coach K will try to conserve Allen's energy for offense and utilize our best perimeter defender (Jones) for what he does best.

It will be interesting though when Duke has Ingram, Allen, and Kennard on the floor together. That's a dynamic trio of playmakers from the perimeter. If those guys are hitting shots, it will be VERY tough on UVa. If the 3s aren't falling, though, it could be a VERY tough game for Duke to win.

Bob Green
02-12-2016, 03:44 PM
The Brogdon-Allen matchup will be one to watch.

Duke switches on defense so Allen will certainly end up guarding Brogdon at times, but the primary assignment will belong to Matt Jones.

Billy Dat
02-12-2016, 05:07 PM
Maybe Virginia's run of success under Bennett is starting to have the recruiting impact that other top programs have, once they start getting recruited by Program X, their recruiting ranking suddenly spikes. I don't think it's so much Bennett's keen eye, it's the impact of the program he's built.

With success comes scrutiny. UVA is really good now, and the rep is "4 year guys who run a system". Sometimes they are even called "average athletically". Maybe someday the rep will be, "Overlooked studs who Pretty Tony recognized before everyone else and who selflessly mute their talents for the sake of the team, a model for all to emulate as they decimate with their vaunted pack-line, and who, tempered in that most high functioning of environments are set loose on the NBA where their amazing fundamentals and team sense augment outstanding athleticism that was just waiting to be uncorked like a fine wine placing them on the short list of every NBA scouting department for surely they are future key cogs of NBA title teams".

If being Duke fans has taught us anything, it's that no one will ever perceive you exactly the way you wish to be perceived. You know what is a great salve for that - winning. As long as you're winning, let people say what they want.

Speaking of winning, I hope Duke wins tomorrow. It is kind of amazing that despite our fairly weak resume and not being ranked, we are still 12th in Ken Pom. I know our offense is good, but I guess it comes down to not scheduling, and losing, to any really weak teams.

jhmoss1812
02-12-2016, 05:22 PM
As always, great insight and analysis regarding UVA and the game tomorrow. I am not surprised at all to see Duke favored in this game. We haven't won in Cameron since 1995 and we've had some road struggles this year. Combine that with the fact that Duke is a talented and well-coached team and it's hard to see how anyone would ever be favored there. With that said, this is the most confident I've felt about UVA winning in Cameron since I've been a UVA fan (2000). That doesn't mean I'm confident we're going to win the game. I'm just more confident that I've been in the past.

Fortunately, I also don't feel like this is a make or break game for UVA at all. We have one of the best resumes in the country when it comes to wins (4-0 vs. RPI top 25, 8-2 vs. RPI top 50 and 11-3 vs. RPI top 100). A loss to a RPI top 20 team on the road isn't going to be that damaging. But it's a great opportunity for another big win for this team and would go a long way in securing a double bye in the ACC tourney and a top seed in the NCAA tourney.

As has been mentioned by others in this thread, I see Ingram being a huge matchup problem for us (who isn't he a matchup problem for though?). I think Brogdon will cover Allen for the majority of defensive sequences unless he picks up some early fouls. Defending Grayson is such a difficult assignment even for a great defender like Brogdon. I think we'll throw Wilkins at Ingram for the most part and then put Shayok and Nolte on him when Wilkins is getting a breather. On offense, I think we'll get solid contributions from at least two of Brogdon, Perrantes and Gill. When we've been most effective is when someone else steps up, whether it be Thompson (in the non-conference), Hall, Shayok, Wilkins, or Tobey. None of those guys have really shined consistently outside of JPJ though. If one of them can be a calming influence for us and hit some open jumpers, that would go a long way in getting out of Cameron with a win.

Both teams play with great tenacity and have strong competitive spirits so I can't imagine this game getting out of hand either way. If I had to make a prediction, I'll say that Duke gets a big win at home winning 68-65. I'm looking forward to it!

BobBender
02-12-2016, 05:29 PM
Maybe Virginia's run of success under Bennett is starting to have the recruiting impact that other top programs have, once they start getting recruited by Program X, their recruiting ranking suddenly spikes. I don't think it's so much Bennett's keen eye, it's the impact of the program he's built.

With success comes scrutiny. UVA is really good now, and the rep is "4 year guys who run a system". Sometimes they are even called "average athletically". Maybe someday the rep will be, "Overlooked studs who Pretty Tony recognized before everyone else and who selflessly mute their talents for the sake of the team, a model for all to emulate as they decimate with their vaunted pack-line, and who, tempered in that most high functioning of environments are set loose on the NBA where their amazing fundamentals and team sense augment outstanding athleticism that was just waiting to be uncorked like a fine wine placing them on the short list of every NBA scouting department for surely they are future key cogs of NBA title teams".

If being Duke fans has taught us anything, it's that no one will ever perceive you exactly the way you wish to be perceived. You know what is a great salve for that - winning. As long as you're winning, let people say what they want.

Speaking of winning, I hope Duke wins tomorrow. It is kind of amazing that despite our fairly weak resume and not being ranked, we are still 12th in Ken Pom. I know our offense is good, but I guess it comes down to not scheduling, and losing, to any really weak teams.
Mostly agree, but that last sentence would be something I'd differ on. Let's be honest with ourselves about scheduling. Our "road games" in November/December are pretty much in MSG, NJ, or Chicago in NBA arenas with a strong Duke crowd. The only real road games we play are the ACC/Big10 thing, every other year. The parade of Yale, Army et al marching into Cameron is not exactly fearless scheduling.

BigWayne
02-12-2016, 06:03 PM
Apparently Dickie V will be on the broadcast team tomorrow. He posted he is at the Washington Duke Inn and Golf Club to get ready for the game.

jv001
02-12-2016, 06:37 PM
Apparently Dickie V will be on the broadcast team tomorrow. He posted he is at the Washington Duke Inn and Golf Club to get ready for the game.

Well, it's too cold to play golf at that great golf course, so Dickie V's not playing golf. I guess I'll just hit the mute button and watch in silence. :cool: GoDuke!

Troublemaker
02-12-2016, 06:50 PM
I know our offense is good, but I guess it comes down to not scheduling, and losing, to any really weak teams.


Mostly agree, but that last sentence would be something I'd differ on. Let's be honest with ourselves about scheduling. Our "road games" in November/December are pretty much in MSG, NJ, or Chicago in NBA arenas with a strong Duke crowd. The only real road games we play are the ACC/Big10 thing, every other year. The parade of Yale, Army et al marching into Cameron is not exactly fearless scheduling.

You're not really differing with BillyDat, though.

Not scheduling/losing to really weak teams is not mutually exclusive with not scheduling a tough home-and-home opponent like UK, KU, etc. That is, your criticism of the schedule can be correct and BillyDat's observation of the schedule can be correct at the same time.

At any rate, Duke might not have "fearless" scheduling practices according to you, but Duke almost always has a high SOS at the end of the season and almost always is rewarded with high seeds in the NCAA tournament. Whatever Duke is doing, I don't mind them continuing to do it.

sewdog
02-12-2016, 07:05 PM
Yes, why is his recruiting so difficult? Beautiful arena, good school, plenty of DelMarVaDC exposure, close to Hampton Roads cradles of talent?

Maybe our Wahoo pal who checks in here sometimes can give us an opinion?

Virginia recruits a very specific type of player. We prefer kids who will stay more than one or two years, believing that seniors with 4 years of game experience give us the experience edge that we need to battle superior athleticism. Virginia tried in the past to compete with Duke and UNC for the marquee recruits and wasn't very successful, so we hired Tony Bennett and his system. We are a "system school" so we want recruits that fit the system. However, our recent success has opened the eyes of kids that historically would have gone elsewhere. Next year, for instance, we will bring in Kyle Guy, who I believe is among the top-25 recruits in the country and a McDonalds All American. He's a deadeye shooter and seems more than ready to buy into Coach Bennett's defense-first mentality. Kids that come to UVA know that playing D is the only way to earn playing time.

The one and done kids probably aren't interested in mastering a defense when they likely are most concerned with showcasing their offensive skills for the scouts, in my opinion.

Wahoo2000
02-12-2016, 08:05 PM
Most of these are either points I haven't seen mentioned, or things that someone is mistaken on that I'd like to clarify:

1 - Wilkins is an extremely solid jumpshooter at 12-15 feet, and very capable from 15-18. He won't hesitate to pull the trigger from those ranges when open, and WILL make a high enough % to beat the opponent or force them to adjust strategy. Not a threat from 3 though. Tobey is probably getting a little too much credit for his jumper which, while more than solid his first 3 years, has been really erratic this season. If I were the opponent, I wouldn't even guard him more than 5 feet from the basket until he hits a couple.

2 - Wilkins is also a very capable passer - may make 1-2 dumb passes per game, but after Perrantes, he probably has the best floor awareness on the team (even over Brogdon). And he's a good defender, very good feet, though he was uncharacteristically beaten on a couple drives to the rim vs VT. While only 6'7, he does have I believe a close to 7' wingspan. He'll be the best defender we can put on Ingram, but won't force Ingram to defend/not foul on the other end. He's very quick laterally, and while he's very springy and quick off the floor to challenge shots, he's surprisingly a subpar rebounder - he WILL NOT own the boards.

3 - Brogdon did not redshirt as a freshman. He had a very good freshman campaign that was cut short by a foot injury that required surgery. There were some complications that forced him to take a medical redshirt during his second year.

4 - We may be #2 on Kenpom, but that doesn't make us the favorite, even by his system. He has Duke 53% chance to win, with a final score prediction of 70-69 Duke.

5 - I think our seniors, ESPECIALLY Gill and Brogdon have highlighted this game (even moreso than a usual game vs Duke) as they're aware it's the only league venue where they haven't won a game. I think there's an excellent (better than 50/50) chance you guys win, but it won't be because we didn't give everything we've got.

6 - Someone had said they feel there's a chance Duke wins this one comfortably. Not sure what the definition of comfortable is, but just as a factoid to throw in, Virginia hasn't lost a game by more than 7 points since 2013. Over that stretch, we're 71-11.

7 - someone mentioned that Bennett wouldn't say "no" if a 5-star, top 10 prospect wanted to come to UVa. I'm not going to dispute that. Instead, I'll say he doesn't even choose to recruit players that don't fit a certain profile when it comes to OFF the court intangibles. He wants talented players, of course. But just as important (if not moreso) to him is that they fit the mentality as a "team-first" player. IF a one-and-done player fits that profile (Michael Porter is an excellent example, not that I expect us to land him), we'll go after him for sure. But if a guy isn't a "fit", I honestly don't think he'd make an exception for even a #1 overall prospect if there are significant issues with how he feels they'd fit in with the "culture" he's created. Our program (and specifically the defense) works because guys buy into the idea that they can be better functioning together as a team than as a group of individuals playing together. It's cliche, but in this case rings true - NO ONE CARES who gets the shot, only that the shot taken is a good one created by the team working together. I think Bennett will find his highest level of success by consistently getting guys in the 20-50 range nationally, and maybe every once in a blue moon sprinkling in a very special 5-star type player when they're just a perfect fit for the program and they see it as much as he does.

8 - This is going to be a hard game for Brogdon. Not only will he be expected to contribute in his usual way offensively, he'll also likely draw Allen on the other end. And while Allen will be able to conserve a ton of energy on the defensive end on Hall/Shayok/Thompson, Brogdon will be under pretty much nonstop pressure. Still, that's why I love him - IMO the best players are the guys that are your best scorer AND defender, and (while admittedly biased) I'd keep him a notch above Barber and Allen in the PoY race in conf.

9 - Believe Perrantes is leading the NATION in 3pt shooting at 53.4%, though I don't see him listed on college basketball reference. Shocking to me that 4 attempts/game not enough to qualify.

10 - A huge deal in this game will be how drives to the basket are officiated. If an offensive player creates contact, will that most often be a foul or a 'play-on'? Note: this isn't a FoM issue, it's a "what do they see issue" - do the refs see it as the offensive player creating contact by "invading" the defender's legal guarding position, or do they see the driver having "beaten" their man and may move in any direction to create a foul? Should be interesting.

11 - Nolte might, MIGHT, end up being a bigger factor than most would think. Since it's unlikely that Duke will play a traditional 4 at any point of the game (unless Jefferson returns), Nolte may get a lot of burn. He knows the defense inside and out, and at 6'8 could be put in to play Ingram if Wilkins has issues. Nolte isn't the quickest but he's pretty heady defensively. If he plays well it could be a big boost for us and alleviate the worry of putting Gill on Ingram for any significant stretch. Nolte, while mired in the shooting slump of a lifetime (he's SUPPOSED to be a 3pt sniper, or was as a recruit and 1st year player), has shot the long ball decently as of late. IF he finds the range in what could be the biggest game of his life/career, he could potentially end up at 20+ minutes. If he throws up bricks or turns the ball over, he might be sent to the end of the bench after his usual 3-5 min stretch in the first half.

12 - one final note to fans of both teams: I don't think a loss here "dooms" anyone, unless "doom" means you won't be regular season champ, or will have to get really hot to pull it off. I can see both teams (assuming Jefferson does get back at some point) continuing to find their groove and likely peaking at the right time of year..... regardless of what happens Saturday.

Good luck to Duke in all the games where they don't play us (or when winning hurts us). Hope the game is an awesome one tomorrow!

CameronDuke
02-12-2016, 11:34 PM
For what it's worth, Duke is still -2 tomorrow vs Virginia with the over/under at 138. Vegas thinks something like Duke 70, Virginia 68. Seems about right to me. I don't think either team scores over 70 but I could be wrong. I'd be surprised if this game wasn't a pick em by tipoff.

Newton_14
02-12-2016, 11:40 PM
In last year's contest, Duke made a concerted effort, early and often, to push the ball upcourt after both misses and makes, to get fast break points at the rim before UVA could get their defense set. That strategy went a long way into getting us off to a great start, and avoiding having to score in the halfcourt against UVA's set defense. UVA battled back of course and took an 11 point lead late, before Duke hit them with a wave of 3's down the stretch in the come from behind win. Duke also changed defenses to help stymie UVA's offense and force bad shots. After playing m2m for all of half 1, and the start of half 2, K changed it up. He went with the 2-3 zone, and when Wilkins and others started hitting foul line jumpers, K switched it to a hybrid 3-2 or 1-2-2 type look, depending on how one interpreted the look they were in, and then switched it back to the 2-3. The zones helped a lot on defense, and on the other end, suddenly Duke was moving the ball really well, making UVA chase, and then freeing up our shooters for 3's. They hit something like 6-8 from 3 down the stretch to complete the comeback, the last of which was a dagger from Tyus Jones in a pull up off the dribble from deep to seal it, putting Duke up by 6 with 9 seconds left.

I am interested to see if a similar game plan is used tomorrow, especially trying to push it early and often to get fastbreak points at the rim with UVA on their heels and unable to get their halfcourt defense set. Duke certainly have the weapons in Grayson, Brandon, and Luke to do that. They also have 5 guys fully capable of knocking down 3's, especially if they can free a guy up for a good look with ball screens and good ball movement.

On defense, I think Duke definitely starts out in m2m, but for sure use two or more of the zone looks, including the 1-3-1, especially if Amile plays. That was a really good defense for us when Amile was still playing.

Should be a great game between two heavy weight ACC teams that actually put legitimate college students on the floor! :) Currently one team near the top of the ACC standings is ineligible for the tourney's due to cheating, and we all know there is another team at the top of the standings who should also be ineligible for the tourney's as well as the regular season, if things were fair... as they should be.

Hoping for a Duke win of course but biting my nails already...

Go Duke

Bob Green
02-13-2016, 05:09 AM
Apparently Dickie V will be on the broadcast team tomorrow.

Thanks for the warning. As soon as I finish my first cup of coffee I am going to test operate my mute button.




5 - I think our seniors, ESPECIALLY Gill and Brogdon have highlighted this game (even moreso than a usual game vs Duke) as they're aware it's the only league venue where they haven't won a game. I think there's an excellent (better than 50/50) chance you guys win, but it won't be because we didn't give everything we've got.



Excellent post. Thanks for the insight. In regard to the point quoted above, the one thing you can count on is Virginia playing hard for a full 40 minutes no matter who is the opponent. That is one of the reasons I like watching UVa games. I expect a barnburner today.

Keys to the game:

1. Matt Jones defense on Malcolm Brogdon.
2. Brandon Ingram's performance on offense.
3. Derryck Thornton's on ball defense.
4. 3 point shooting - who lights it up Duke or Virginia?
5. Foul trouble - both teams have players they cannot afford to have sitting on the bench.

Prediction: Duke 70, Virginia 64

superdave
02-13-2016, 08:08 AM
10 - A huge deal in this game will be how drives to the basket are officiated. If an offensive player creates contact, will that most often be a foul or a 'play-on'? Note: this isn't a FoM issue, it's a "what do they see issue" - do the refs see it as the offensive player creating contact by "invading" the defender's legal guarding position, or do they see the driver having "beaten" their man and may move in any direction to create a foul? Should be interesting.


I think this is a good thing to watch for. Duke guys are going to want to drive. Not may teams fill in the gaps and cut off driving lanes quite like UVA. How does Duke adjust? Do we see a few wrinkles to get open shots in the lane for Ingram? Do we see elaborate picks to get Allen, Kennard open space?

Also, if UVA can cut off driving lanes, does that give us open looks at 3s? I think not. UVA is also adept at chasing guys off the 3 point line. So Duke has to bring a whole bag of tricks and really work hard. Some of the best looks they get may be transition and secondary break shots. Look for Ingram to really try to attack and look for Allen, Thornton to push the ball when they get a rebound or outlet.

On the other end, it's all about how Duke competes on the boards. You kinda know what you are getting from Plumlee. Ingram has been more focused on the defensive glass of late. We may need Matt Jones to focus on it too. When you play an efficiency war of attrition vs Virginia, you cannot give them second chance points. You really dont want a short bench playing defense for a full 60 seconds.

Should be a great game. Both teams are on the upswing.

jv001
02-13-2016, 08:35 AM
In last year's contest, Duke made a concerted effort, early and often, to push the ball upcourt after both misses and makes, to get fast break points at the rim before UVA could get their defense set. That strategy went a long way into getting us off to a great start, and avoiding having to score in the halfcourt against UVA's set defense. UVA battled back of course and took an 11 point lead late, before Duke hit them with a wave of 3's down the stretch in the come from behind win. Duke also changed defenses to help stymie UVA's offense and force bad shots. After playing m2m for all of half 1, and the start of half 2, K changed it up. He went with the 2-3 zone, and when Wilkins and others started hitting foul line jumpers, K switched it to a hybrid 3-2 or 1-2-2 type look, depending on how one interpreted the look they were in, and then switched it back to the 2-3. The zones helped a lot on defense, and on the other end, suddenly Duke was moving the ball really well, making UVA chase, and then freeing up our shooters for 3's. They hit something like 6-8 from 3 down the stretch to complete the comeback, the last of which was a dagger from Tyus Jones in a pull up off the dribble from deep to seal it, putting Duke up by 6 with 9 seconds left.

I am interested to see if a similar game plan is used tomorrow, especially trying to push it early and often to get fastbreak points at the rim with UVA on their heels and unable to get their halfcourt defense set. Duke certainly have the weapons in Grayson, Brandon, and Luke to do that. They also have 5 guys fully capable of knocking down 3's, especially if they can free a guy up for a good look with ball screens and good ball movement.

On defense, I think Duke definitely starts out in m2m, but for sure use two or more of the zone looks, including the 1-3-1, especially if Amile plays. That was a really good defense for us when Amile was still playing.

Should be a great game between two heavy weight ACC teams that actually put legitimate college students on the floor! :) Currently one team near the top of the ACC standings is ineligible for the tourney's due to cheating, and we all know there is another team at the top of the standings who should also be ineligible for the tourney's as well as the regular season, if things were fair... as they should be.
Hoping for a Duke win of course but biting my nails already...

Go Duke

As always great post. Out of sporks for you at this time. :cool: Great take on the schools that put winning at any cost(education/cheating). I'm so tired of hearing the excuse, "well everyone is doing it". No, everyone is not doing it. Now for the game, I agree we may need some zone in this game, especially if Amile is back. Virginia's defense is always tough and they play a physical brand of defense. I think Duke's chance of winning depends on how good they shoot the 3 ball. But that's the case in most Duke games. We have the shooters to get the job done and I expect them to do just that. I'm not going to predict a score because every time I do, we lose. So, I'll just say, GoDuke!

wavedukefan70s
02-13-2016, 09:28 AM
We need a good game from ingram .i dont believe they are set up to stop him.i believe they will key in on G.A.i think duke by 6 points.63 to 57.atleast thats what my dream said.

elvis14
02-13-2016, 09:42 AM
As somewhat mentioned above, how the game is officiated will have a huge impact on the game. UVa will be at a great advantage if the FOM rules continue to be ignored. The NCAA seems to have the same pattern this year as last year. They start year with a focus on freedom of movement, appropriately making lots of calls and forcing teams to adjust their defense. Then Christmas comes around and they stop making calls and freedom of movement goes out the window. If you're UVa or MSU it's like a Christmas gift!

moonpie23
02-13-2016, 09:46 AM
bank @ $5250 - taking duke - 2 Vs UVA today for $500

dukelifer
02-13-2016, 10:13 AM
As always great post. Out of sporks for you at this time. :cool: Great take on the schools that put winning at any cost(education/cheating). I'm so tired of hearing the excuse, "well everyone is doing it". No, everyone is not doing it. Now for the game, I agree we may need some zone in this game, especially if Amile is back. Virginia's defense is always tough and they play a physical brand of defense. I think Duke's chance of winning depends on how good they shoot the 3 ball. But that's the case in most Duke games. We have the shooters to get the job done and I expect them to do just that. I'm not going to predict a score because every time I do, we lose. So, I'll just say, GoDuke!

Need a big game 15+ from Kennard. If he plays well- it tends to open up the possibilities. Duke should stay in this game although there will be runs. That said- Duke will need to make throws down the stretch.

Troublemaker
02-13-2016, 11:08 AM
Also, if UVA can cut off driving lanes, does that give us open looks at 3s? I think not. UVA is also adept at chasing guys off the 3 point line.

Not as much as one might think. UVA will allow the 3-pter; it's just that they want you to take a contested 3 with a hand in your face.

UVA ranks 289th in the country in limiting opponents' 3-pt attempts, and it's a category that they rank low in year after year. (They would not regard this as a weakness; it's by design as it's more important to UVA to limit drives and postups by packing in their wings.) By comparison, Duke ranks 15th nationally in limiting 3-pt attempts, and Miami ranks 21st. Those are two teams that will really chase people off the line as opposed to just get a hand up for a "contest" of the shot. (Miami, in particular, is freakish at being able to BOTH defend drivers and limit 3-pt attempts. Therefore, Miami is the perfect defense to defend Duke, particularly if the officiating is loose and allows physicality. Now, if those were the only two skills involved in playing defense, Miami would have a great one, but they have weaknesses in other areas.)

Back to UVA. They want Duke to shoot contested 3s. Duke wants to shoot open 3s. Who gets what they desire? Duke will if our guys string together patient, drive-and-kick sequences that eventually free up an open or semi-contested shooter. Ball movement, essentially. We have to have great ball movement. Then, it's all about hitting your open shots and a decent number of the semi-contested shots.

Olympic Fan
02-13-2016, 11:44 AM
Not as much as one might think. UVA will allow the 3-pter; it's just that they want you to take a contested 3 with a hand in your face.

UVA ranks 289th in the country in limiting opponents' 3-pt attempts, and it's a category that they rank low in year after year. (They would not regard this as a weakness; it's by design as it's more important to UVA to limit drives and postups by packing in their wings.) By comparison, Duke ranks 15th nationally in limiting 3-pt attempts, and Miami ranks 21st. Those are two teams that will really chase people off the line as opposed to just get a hand up for a "contest" of the shot. (Miami, in particular, is freakish at being able to BOTH defend drivers and limit 3-pt attempts. Therefore, Miami is the perfect defense to defend Duke, particularly if the officiating is loose and allows physicality. Now, if those were the only two skills involved in playing defense, Miami would have a great one, but they have weaknesses in other areas.)

Back to UVA. They want Duke to shoot contested 3s. Duke wants to shoot open 3s. Who gets what they desire? Duke will if our guys string together patient, drive-and-kick sequences that eventually free up an open or semi-contested shooter. Ball movement, essentially. We have to have great ball movement. Then, it's all about hitting your open shots and a decent number of the semi-contested shots.

I was just looking at Virginia's ACC stats (league games only) and I agree that the 3-point shot is a vulnerability. Not only does Virginia give up more 3-point attempts than anybody other than Syracuse in the ACC, the Cavs don't defend it that well -- Virginia is 12th in the league in 3-point percentage defense.

On the other hand, Virginia is the best 3-point shooting team in the ACC (in terms of percentage), although only Georgia Tech has less 3-point attempts.

The Cavs have some interesting rebounding stats -- they are one of the ACC's worst offensive rebounding teams (No. 13 in the league , rebounding 24.5 percent of their own misses), BUT they are the absolute best in the ACC at defensive rebounding (rebounding over 76 percent of their opponents misses). I should point out that Duke is 14th in the ACC in defensive rebounding (and a mediocre 9th in offensive rebounding). I suspect Virginia's rebounding numbers reflect Bennett's defensive philosophy -- he sends five guys to the defensive boards, never looking to run ... he sends two or three players back on defense after a Virginia shot -- he'd rather prevent transition than pound the offensive boards.

Also, I didn't realize that Virginia has not won in Durham since 1995 -- Duke has won 10 of the last 12 in the series and 19 of the last 22 meetings. Hope that streak continues!

akg4y
02-13-2016, 02:02 PM
I suspect Virginia's rebounding numbers reflect Bennett's defensive philosophy -- he sends five guys to the defensive boards, never looking to run ... he sends two or three players back on defense after a Virginia shot -- he'd rather prevent transition than pound the offensive boards.

Also, I didn't realize that Virginia has not won in Durham since 1995 -- Duke has won 10 of the last 12 in the series and 19 of the last 22 meetings. Hope that streak continues!

You are correct, 100% the result of our defensive philosophy.

As for the last post of that post... Let's go for regression to the mean. :)

budwom
02-13-2016, 02:16 PM
Not as much as one might think. UVA will allow the 3-pter; it's just that they want you to take a contested 3 with a hand in your face.

UVA ranks 289th in the country in limiting opponents' 3-pt attempts, and it's a category that they rank low in year after year. (They would not regard this as a weakness; it's by design as it's more important to UVA to limit drives and postups by packing in their wings.) By comparison, Duke ranks 15th nationally in limiting 3-pt attempts, and Miami ranks 21st. Those are two teams that will really chase people off the line as opposed to just get a hand up for a "contest" of the shot. (Miami, in particular, is freakish at being able to BOTH defend drivers and limit 3-pt attempts. Therefore, Miami is the perfect defense to defend Duke, particularly if the officiating is loose and allows physicality. Now, if those were the only two skills involved in playing defense, Miami would have a great one, but they have weaknesses in other areas.)

Back to UVA. They want Duke to shoot contested 3s. Duke wants to shoot open 3s. Who gets what they desire? Duke will if our guys string together patient, drive-and-kick sequences that eventually free up an open or semi-contested shooter. Ball movement, essentially. We have to have great ball movement. Then, it's all about hitting your open shots and a decent number of the semi-contested shots.

Yes, some patience is required to avoid the rushed threes....or the reckless forays into the lane (I'm all for controlled drives, but some of our young guys are still learning to be prudent).

Troublemaker
02-13-2016, 03:43 PM
Blue Devil Nation ‏@BlueDevilNation (https://twitter.com/BlueDevilNation) 27m27 minutes ago (https://twitter.com/BlueDevilNation/status/698601219267362816)
Frank Jackson is in the house! @FrankFjack5 (https://twitter.com/FrankFjack5) stud guard is here for UVA-Duke

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbHuG2xXEAAF9ap.jpg

-jk
02-13-2016, 03:49 PM
DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox) is open!

If it gets a bit slow, refresh the page. If you're on a mobile device, you'll need to select "Blue" at the bottom.

As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines.

Let's Go Duke!

-jk

91devil
02-13-2016, 04:09 PM
Amile is still in the boot. Watching warm ups. Dressed nicely but presumably not playing today.

rsvman
02-13-2016, 05:09 PM
we look dead in our own house.

need more energy, need to make a shot, or need to figure out a new strategy, and soon.

rsvman
02-13-2016, 05:12 PM
that's better.
need to keep up that level of aggression.

jipops
02-13-2016, 05:55 PM
Please officiating, don't ruin this great game.

Acymetric
02-13-2016, 06:23 PM
Please officiating, don't ruin this great game.

Bears repeating...