This Week in the ACC: 2/8-2/14

[pfrduke]

The ACC is looking a little like Lake Wobegon right now - with 10 of the 15 teams sitting over .500 and within 2.5 games of first, it's looking a little like all the children are above average.* There likely will be some winnowing as the season goes on, but if all of those teams can stay at or above .500 in conference, there's a good chance that all of them might end up in the dance (well, except Louisville, for obvious reasons). Lots of enticing matchups among those top 10 teams this week.

*Yes, I'm dating myself with this reference. And I'm not even that old (or so I tell myself).

Monday
[17]Duke hosts [7]Louisville (7:00, ESPN)
[52]Clemson hosts [31]Notre Dame (9:00, ESPNU)

Tuesday
[12]Miami hosts [55]Pittsburgh (7:00, ESPNU)
[3]Virginia hosts [105]Virginia Tech (8:00, ESPN3)
[257]Boston College hosts [6]North Carolina (8:00, ESPN3) -- UNC losses holds a two-game lead over BC wins with just 8 to play, so seems like that side challenge won't be much of a contest.

Wednesday
[61]Georgia Tech hosts [138]Wake Forest (7:00, ESPN3)

Thursday
[38]Syracuse hosts [37]Florida State (7:00, ESPN)

Friday is dark

Saturday
[64]NC State hosts [138]Wake Forest (12:00, ESPN3)
[52]Clemson hosts [61]Georgia Tech (2:00, ESPN3)
[31]Notre Dame hosts [7]Louisville (4:00, ESPN2)
[17]Duke hosts [3]Virginia (4:30, ESPN)

Sunday
[257]Boston College hosts [38]Syracuse (1:00, ESPN3)
[6]North Carolina hosts [55]Pittsburgh (1:00, ESPN3)
[37]Florida State hosts [12]Miami (6:30, ESPNU)

[CDu]

Huge week for Duke. Two home games against two of the best teams in the conference. Louisville and UVa are better than any team we have faced this year. Even a split would be a fantastic result for us. Winning both would be amazing. Losing both is a very real possibility (perhaps even the plurality outcome).

Also a big week for Notre Dame Pitt. Both face tough competition (ND gets to go to Clemson and then hosts Louisville; Pitt has road games against Miami and UNC). From the "quality of the conference/number of tourney teams" perspective, a win or two for those guys would be good. From the perspective of our ACC seeding, we probably want 4 losses for those teams.

[ChillinDuke]

Huge week for Duke. Two home games against two of the best teams in the conference. Louisville and UVa are better than any team we have faced this year. Even a split would be a fantastic result for us. Winning both would be amazing. Losing both is a very real possibility (perhaps even the plurality outcome).

Also a big week for Notre Dame Pitt. Both face tough competition (ND gets to go to Clemson and then hosts Louisville; Pitt has road games against Miami and UNC). From the "quality of the conference/number of tourney teams" perspective, a win or two for those guys would be good. From the perspective of our ACC seeding, we probably want 4 losses for those teams.

The bolded cannot be emphasized enough. Absolutely huge week. If Duke can get past L'Ville without Jefferson, it's a major development for our season in just about every way. I trust that the students are well aware of this and expect a raucous crowd.

Not only would a win over L'Ville be our best win of the year, but it would give us a 3-game win streak entering what appears to be the first game of the Return-of-Amile window.

For the first time this year, I have butterflies. Can't wait.

- Chillin

[CameronDuke]

I think Amile misses tonight's game. From what I have read, I think the earliest we can expect him back is Saturday against Virginia and even that is wishing and more of a stretch than reality. I agree that this is a colossal week for us. A sweep would be nice, but will be arduous. I think Duke splits at best this week with Louisville tonight being their best shot at a win this week. Two losses this week would not surprise me for Duke. They just do not strike me of being capable of beating Virginia right now the way the Cavaliers are defending. I don't know if Duke has anyone to stop Brogdon, Gill, or Perrantes either.

[CDu]

The bolded cannot be emphasized enough. Absolutely huge week. If Duke can get past L'Ville without Jefferson, it's a major development for our season in just about every way. I trust that the students are well aware of this and expect a raucous crowd.

Not only would a win over L'Ville be our best win of the year, but it would give us a 3-game win streak entering what appears to be the first game of the Return-of-Amile window.

For the first time this year, I have butterflies. Can't wait.

- Chillin

Yeah, I'm pretty nervous/excited for tonight's game. It's going to be a huge test for this young team, especially so if Jefferson doesn't play.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

This league is about to get crazy competitive. The back loaded schedule is going to be intense. I don't think we are going to know who the regular season champ is until the last game of the season. UNC looks vulnerable all of a sudden, Louisville is in limbo, Could UVA secure a third straight regular season championship? Or will Duke, ND, Clemson or some other team find a way to fight its way to the top of the heap? Were in for one heck of a ride over the next two months.

As for this week, how huge is this for Duke!! I kind of like being the young upstarts trying to take down the league leaders. Its a nice role reversal, though I realize we are still Duke. Its fun being the underdog though, and watching these young kids grow up right before our eyes. I am really excited about tonight. I know that.

Lets Go DUKE!!!!

[CDu]

And with the win tonight we are guaranteed to spend the next five days in (effectively) 5th in the league. Either Clemson or Notre Dame will fall behind us tonight.

[Olympic Fan]

I was just thinking about how tough the Louisville-Duke game must have been for our UNC Cheat neighbors.

On one hand, a Louisville loss would give them sole possession of first place in the ACC standings and a one-game lead in the loss column on the Cards. (PS I checked with the ACC office and Louisville IS eligible to win the ACC regular season championship).

On the other hand, no UNC Cheat fan could pull for Duke (just as no Duke fans could ever pull for the Cheats -- even if it helps Duke).

Duke's win means that we now have seven ACC teams with four losses or less (plus three more teams with five ACC losses). With Louisville out of the mix, that means we still have three teams ahead of Duke (7-4) in the loss column and means that we are effectively tied for the fourth bye into the ACC Tournament semifinals (actually Notre Dame has one more win, plus we lose most tiebreakers). So we still have a lot of work to do against a tough closing stretch to earn that bye.

Three ACC games tonight -- although UNC at BC is a gimmie that will get the Cheats back on track after their two-game losing streak. Expect to read and hear a lot of postgame commentary about how impressive UNC was and how they bounced out of their slump. There hasn't been a better slumpbuster in the ACC than the Eagles in a long time.

Virginia Tech at Virginia is only a bit more interesting. I know the Hokies upset the Cavs last month and VPI has been playing well, but Virginia has really upped their game and this one is in C'ville and should be a fairly easy Virginia win.

The best ACC game of the night is Pitt at Miami. The Hurricanes have been dominant at home -- 5-0 at home in the ACC and no game closer than nine points. Pitt has narrow wins at Notre Dame and at FSU, plus they are one of the most physical, experienced teams in the league, so maybe an upset is possible.

I'm not sure which outcome helps Duke -- Pitt is 6-4 and it would be nice to see them drop out of the four-loss logjam. But Miami is 7-3 and it would be nice to see them drop back into the four-loss logjam. I think in the long run, knocking back Pitt helps most (since we also get a shot to knock them back), while Miami faces as a killer stretch to close the season with games at UNC, at FSU, at Notre Dame and at VPI, plus home games with Virginia and Louisville.

[akg4y]

I'm not sure which outcome helps Duke -- Pitt is 6-4 and it would be nice to see them drop out of the four-loss logjam. But Miami is 7-3 and it would be nice to see them drop back into the four-loss logjam. I think in the long run, knocking back Pitt helps most (since we also get a shot to knock them back), while Miami faces as a killer stretch to close the season with games at UNC, at FSU, at Notre Dame and at VPI, plus home games with Virginia and Louisville.

Looking at remaining schedules it's hard to see UVA/UNC not getting the double bye.
ND has an easier remaining schedule and most likely will also get a double bye with 5-6 losses and the tie breaker over Duke.

The final spot is up for grabs but with Miami and Duke's remaining games they would both have to have one heck of a run of wins to sneak into that spot. Realistically Duke should lose @UNC and @Lou. If Jefferson isnt back then I also expect UVA to win @Cameron but that game is hard to predict. Either way odds are Duke ends up with 6 losses.
Miami I think is in the same boat, most likely 6 losses but they have the tie breaker over Duke.
Clemson has a pretty easy schedule and if they end up with 6 losses they have the tie breaker over both Duke and Miami.
Pittsburgh is most likely going to lose more than 6 games so i think they're basically out. Regarding your post above I think Pitt beating Miami is probably the best outcome for you guys.

[Wahoo2000]

If Jefferson isnt back then I also expect UVA to win @Cameron but that game is hard to predict.

I expect Duke to be the favorite. The advanced metrics make them slightly better than a pick-em, but what gives me nightmares is the fact that Kennard, Allen, and Ingram are all shooting close to 45% from 3 in ACC home games. And they all can connect from well behind the line. The packline is built to force teams to shoot contested 3s, or VERY DEEP 3s, and this is kind of right in Duke's wheelhouse.

I think our best chance is to pound it in to Gill early and hope he's drawing fouls like it's the 2014 ACC championship game. If Plumlee and (more importantly) Ingram have real foul issues, that's a massive blow to Duke.

I also have some hope that our grinding style on offense, making Allen and Kennard chase our wings off screens nonstop will leave them with a little less lift under their shots by the time we get to the last 10 minutes.

Should be a great game either way!

[Olympic Fan]

Looking at remaining schedules it's hard to see UVA/UNC not getting the double bye.
ND has an easier remaining schedule and most likely will also get a double bye with 5-6 losses and the tie breaker over Duke.

The final spot is up for grabs but with Miami and Duke's remaining games they would both have to have one heck of a run of wins to sneak into that spot. Realistically Duke should lose @UNC and @Lou. If Jefferson isnt back then I also expect UVA to win @Cameron but that game is hard to predict. Either way odds are Duke ends up with 6 losses.
Miami I think is in the same boat, most likely 6 losses but they have the tie breaker over Duke.
Clemson has a pretty easy schedule and if they end up with 6 losses they have the tie breaker over both Duke and Miami.
Pittsburgh is most likely going to lose more than 6 games so i think they're basically out. Regarding your post above I think Pitt beating Miami is probably the best outcome for you guys.


I actually agree about UNC and Virginia ... I'd be surprised if they don't get two of the four byes to the quarterfinals. And I agree about Pitt -- I doubt they finish in the top five (four minus Louisvile).

Clemson is interesting. They have seven wins now and three more locks (two games with BC and a home game with Georgia Tech). Can they get to 12-6 by winning two of at NC State, at Georgia Tech and Virginia at home? It's going to be tough for them -- I think 11-7 is much more likely. That won't win a bye.

That comes down to Miami, Notre Dame at Duke for two spots. For Duke to have a realistic chance, they've got to get to 12-6. That's going to be difficult, since games at UNC and Louisville will be very, VERY tough. Not that sweeping Virginia, UNC, FSU and Wake at home will be easy, plus winning at Pitt. Duke does lose head-to-head tiebreakers with both Notre Dame and Miami (plus Clemson, if it comes to that). But if Duke can get Louisville in a three-way tiebreaker with Miami or Notre Dame, it could change things.

We'll see ... but I think 12-6 is the target for all these teams vying for the double bye. Nothing is a lock, but get to 12-6 and you PROBABLY get a bye. Finish short and you PROBABLY play on Wednesday. For Duke, I think the chance to finish 12-6 depends on getting Amile back very soon.

[Wahoo2000]

This league is about to get crazy competitive. The back loaded schedule is going to be intense. I don't think we are going to know who the regular season champ is until the last game of the season.

Agree with this. Betting there are multiple teams at 13-4 and 12-5 going into the last games. Kind of encapsulating the nationwide story in college hoops this year: No great teams, but a bunch of good ones. Really think you could pick the national champ by putting at least 10-15 names in a hat and pulling one out..... and a good chance it comes from a team even outside those "favorites".

(...... Now watch OK and Hield not lose another game and make me look like a big dumb dummy.)

[Troublemaker]

I expect Duke to be the favorite. The advanced metrics make them slightly better than a pick-em, but what gives me nightmares is the fact that Kennard, Allen, and Ingram are all shooting close to 45% from 3 in ACC home games. And they all can connect from well behind the line. The packline is built to force teams to shoot contested 3s, or VERY DEEP 3s, and this is kind of right in Duke's wheelhouse.


I would say Ingram is a bit of a line hugger, actually. Where he combats UVA's packline closeouts is with his launchpoint (6'9" height) and impossibly quick release, not his deep range. You're right about Allen and Kennard being able to go a step or two farther out, though, particularly Kennard.

[Olympic Fan]

Wow! I am shocked by UNC's close call at Boston College.

The Eagles have not been competitive with anybody in the ACC until tonight, when they take the Cheats down to the final seconds before losing by three (as a halfcourt 3-point try by Carter goes astray).

I would consider this a far more disturbing performance by the Cheats than their road losses at Louisville and Notre Dame. They get a tough Pitt team in Chapel Hill Sunday -- that one will be interesting to watch.

As expected, surging Miami coasted past Virginia Tech.

Great game in Miami ... Pitt leads the "Canes most of the way, but Miami takes over late .. James Robinson hits a 3-pointer to tie with 31 seconds left to tie, but at the other end, Miami misses then plays volleyball with the rebound before Angel Rodriguez tips it in with 1.4 seconds left. Interesting final 1.4 seconds -- Pitt inbounds but before Robinson can get off a shot, he collides with Rodriguez, who tries to take a charge just shot of midcourt. I'm not sure whether it was a block or a charge, but it should have been something, but the refs swallowed their whistle.

This link has both plays, the tip-in and the collision:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25478999/watch-crazy-ending-gives-no-12-miami-the-win-over-pittsburgh

[akg4y]

As expected, surging Miami coasted past Virginia Tech.


Surging UVA you mean :)
4 teams in a row held to 50 points or less... looks like the UVA D is back to normal.

[Wahoo2000]

Surging UVA you mean :)
4 teams in a row held to 50 points or less... looks like the UVA D is back to normal.

None of those 4 teams have an offense like Duke. Saturday is going to be an IMMENSE challenge. Honestly, I don't think it's possible to keep them under 65ish, our offense better be clicking if we want to pull the first road win in Durham since...... I don't know, 1995?

[CDu]

Wow! I am shocked by UNC's close call at Boston College.

The Eagles have not been competitive with anybody in the ACC until tonight, when they take the Cheats down to the final seconds before losing by three (as a halfcourt 3-point try by Carter goes astray).

I would consider this a far more disturbing performance by the Cheats than their road losses at Louisville and Notre Dame. They get a tough Pitt team in Chapel Hill Sunday -- that one will be interesting to watch.

As expected, surging Miami coasted past Virginia Tech.

Great game in Miami ... Pitt leads the "Canes most of the way, but Miami takes over late .. James Robinson hits a 3-pointer to tie with 31 seconds left to tie, but at the other end, Miami misses then plays volleyball with the rebound before Angel Rodriguez tips it in with 1.4 seconds left. Interesting final 1.4 seconds -- Pitt inbounds but before Robinson can get off a shot, he collides with Rodriguez, who tries to take a charge just shot of midcourt. I'm not sure whether it was a block or a charge, but it should have been something, but the refs swallowed their whistle.

This link has both plays, the tip-in and the collision:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25478999/watch-crazy-ending-gives-no-12-miami-the-win-over-pittsburgh

Miami actually led most of the second half. Pitt led most of the first half, but Miami surged to a comfy lead to start the second half. They held that lead for the rest of the half before Pitt chipped away late and tied with Robinson's 3.

As for the last-second contact, it was basically irrelevant. Pitt was not yet in the bonus, so all that would have happened in the event of a blocking foul was an out of bounds at half court with less than half a second to go. And the replays showed it looked like a charge, although the refs certainly could have called a block. Still, there was virtually no chance of that no-call changing the outcome.

[-jk]

Surging UVA you mean :)
4 teams in a row held to 50 points or less... looks like the UVA D is back to normal.

I think more than UVA D being back to normal, the refs are - once again - back to allowing t̶h̶u̶g̶g̶e̶r̶y̶ physicality.

I miss flowy hoops... <sigh>

-jk

[akg4y]

I think more than UVA D being back to normal, the refs are - once again - back to allowing t̶h̶u̶g̶g̶e̶r̶y̶ physicality.

I miss flowy hoops... <sigh>

-jk


Sounds like an early excuse. Games, particularly in the ACC are officiated wildly differently even on the same night, part of the game. Frustrating for sure, all of us agree on that... but that had little to do with our early losses to teams like Ga Tech.

[-jk]

Sounds like an early excuse. Games, particularly in the ACC are officiated wildly differently even on the same night, part of the game. Frustrating for sure, all of us agree on that... but that had little to do with our early losses to teams like Ga Tech.

No, I've been complaining about this for years: before the season, the NCAA lists rough play and freedom of motion as points of emphasis. The refs call tight games in the fall - and lots of folks whine about the broken rhythm. By early Feb, we're back to the more physical play the NCAA doesn't want.

I miss flowy hoops...

-jk

[Doria]

No, I've been complaining about this for years: before the season, the NCAA lists rough play and freedom of motion as points of emphasis. The refs call tight games in the fall - and lots of folks whine about the broken rhythm. By early Feb, we're back to the more physical play the NCAA doesn't want.

I miss flowy hoops...

-jk

And if feels like these are points of emphasis almost every other year! Games almost always seem more closely called in the early stages of the season. It's just the same thing all over again, every year.

It's the mirror of sportscasters talking about parity in college basketball as though it's something new. This year, I think they have a point, but after a particularly upset-prone week, the talking heads always sagely diagnose "parity," like they're doctors talking about the common cold in elementary school classrooms.

[akg4y]

And if feels like these are points of emphasis almost every other year! Games almost always seem more closely called in the early stages of the season. It's just the same thing all over again, every year.

It's the mirror of sportscasters talking about parity in college basketball as though it's something new. This year, I think they have a point, but after a particularly upset-prone week, the talking heads always sagely diagnose "parity," like they're doctors talking about the common cold in elementary school classrooms.


They made some pretty specific changes this year like the banning of the arm bar even when the offensive player has the ball. The foul calls are just a fact of life, nobody wants a foul every minute, and the game is physical... letting guys just waltz to the basket because touching them is a foul is no fun either. Everything is a balance and IMO the way things are is fine. Defenders have to have some ability to defend, take away every little bit of contact and itll just be layups, fouls, and 3 pointers (which is almost where we already are).

Nobody takes the 15' jumper anymore, or backs people down into the post. MJ's manhandling of guards by posting them up was a thing of beauty, but the way it is now, we'll never see that again.

[-jk]

They made some pretty specific changes this year like the banning of the arm bar even when the offensive player has the ball. The foul calls are just a fact of life, nobody wants a foul every minute, and the game is physical... letting guys just waltz to the basket because touching them is a foul is no fun either. Everything is a balance and IMO the way things are is fine. Defenders have to have some ability to defend, take away every little bit of contact and itll just be layups, fouls, and 3 pointers (which is almost where we already are).

Nobody takes the 15' jumper anymore, or backs people down into the post. MJ's manhandling of guards by posting them up was a thing of beauty, but the way it is now, we'll never see that again.

These are this year's changes (http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2015-06-08/ncaa-changes-shot-clock-30-seconds-makes-other-changes-game).


The key areas officials will focus on in the upcoming season are:
• Perimeter defense, particularly on the dribbler and strictly enforcing directives established before the 2013-14 season.
• Physicality in post play.
• Screening, particularly moving screens and requiring the screener to be stationary.
• Block/charge plays.
• Allowing greater freedom of movement for players without the ball.

We saw it in the fall. I'd love to see it the rest of the season.

-jk

[nocilla]

[[257]Boston College hosts [6]North Carolina (8:00, ESPN3) -- UNC losses holds a two-game lead over BC wins with just 8 to play, so seems like that side challenge won't be much of a contest.


Just wanted to point out something I noticed regarding this. People have complained about the schedule and noted that a lot of the good games were back loaded probably for tv ratings. Well the other side of that is a lot of the lower rated teams will be playing each other at that time as well. So it is with BC. BC has yet to win a conference game but they have also yet to play any of the bottom 5 teams.

BC hasn't played VT, GT, NCSU, or WF. If you extend that to the bottom 8 teams they have played Syracuse and Pitt on the road and then lost to FSU by 10 at home. Their final 7 games are as follows; Syr, @Clem, @WF, VT, GT, @NCSU, Clem.

So as far as the side challenge noted above, I would still take the UNC losses just because I want them to lose their next 7 games. But I think BC does get a couple wins now that the schedule is much easier the rest of the way.

[killerleft]

Sounds like an early excuse. Games, particularly in the ACC are officiated wildly differently even on the same night, part of the game. Frustrating for sure, all of us agree on that... but that had little to do with our early losses to teams like Ga Tech.

Excuuuuuuuuuse us for winning?:)

[Sir Stealth]

• Allowing greater freedom of movement for players without the ball.

This one is always big against UVA in the Bennett era. They will clutch, grab and bump anyone cutting without the ball if they're allowed to. Will be a factor for Grayson in particular.

[Bob Green]

Saturday
[64]NC State hosts [138]Wake Forest (12:00, ESPN3)
[52]Clemson hosts [61]Georgia Tech (2:00, ESPN3)
[31]Notre Dame hosts [7]Louisville (4:00, ESPN2)
[17]Duke hosts [3]Virginia (4:30, ESPN)



It is extremely cold in Hampton Roads today, which makes perfect conditions to stay inside and watch college basketball all day. Prior to the main event at 4:30, I'll tune my TV to Comcast Sports Network Mid-Atlantic to watch Wake Forest at N.C. State at 12:00 followed by Georgia Tech at Clemson at 2:00.

[Bob Green]

Cat Barber scored a career high 38 points to lead State to a 99-88 win over Wake Forest in a very entertaining game. Hopefully the Clemson - Georgia Tech is equally entertaining.

[CDu]

And suddenly we are a half game out of third in the conference!

[Olympic Fan]

Great comeback win for Notre Dame at home against Louisville (a bad week or so for the Cards).

Clemson dominates Georgia Tech down the stretch to help keep their NCAA hopes alive (although they've still got plenty of work to do).

State-Wake was kind of meaningless ... Duke-Virginia is being discussed elsewhere.

Three interesting games Sunday:

Syracuse at BC ... can BC repeat their strong homecourt showing that they had against UNC?

Pitt at North Carolina ... can UNC snap out of its funk?

Miami at FSU ... are the 'Canes real contenders for the regular season title? Can FSU stay on the right side of the bubble?

[Indoor66]

It is entirely fitting and full of justice that unCheat appears on the computer and Duke appears on ESPN TV. ;):D:cool:

[CDu]

Bubble teams Pitt and FSU go down today. Pitt is now 6-6 in conference with games vs Duke, vs Louisville, at Syracuse, and at both Tech schools. They could very well find themselves at 7-9 going into those last two road games. FSU fell to Miami at home, dropping to 6-7 in conference. They go to Va Tech and Duke, and then close with home games against ND and the Cuse. They, too, could be sitting at 7-9 going into their last two.

[nocilla]

It is entirely fitting and full of justice that unCheat appears on the computer and Duke appears on ESPN TV. ;):D:cool:

Other way around in my house. The unc game was on regular tv (the ACCN covers essentially the entire ACC viewing area) while I had to use the WatchEspn app to view the Duke game.

Personally, I very much prefer to watch the ACCN broadcast.