MBB: Duke vs. Louisville (Mon, 2/8, 7 pm, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[JBDuke]

Another quick Saturday-Monday turn, but at least this one stays in the friendly confines of Cameron, as Duke hosts Louisville on Monday night. We'll see how the Cardinals react to both their big win over Carolina and whether they can continue to be motivated given the self-imposed postseason ban.

[PallasAthena]

In a post-game interview on Saturday, with John Roth I think, Coach K asked the fans to be "even louder" than they were against NCSU, but to keep the cheering about Duke vs. Louisville, the basketball game between two classy schools, not about the situation that Coach Pitino or the school "finds themselves in." Such a good move by our wise coach. One can only imagine the signs about this one: strippers, prostitutes, etc. OMG.

[Troublemaker]

Duke will need to play good defense for 40 minutes (or close) to win. With such little preparation time, I don't think Duke's offense will be fully prepared for Louisville's matchup zone that will sometimes confuse opponents by switching from zone to pure man within the same possession. There's also the matter of preparing for their press.

Can Duke get it done on defense? I believe so. I think Matt can hold Damion Lee down, and Grayson can do the same with Trey Lewis. Derryck can be disruptive on Snyder using ball pressure. The key, as it often is, is that Duke will need to defensive rebound at a decent rate (say, 65%) and not get totally killed on the boards. Louisville is an excellent offensive rebounding team.

[pfrduke]

Duke will need to play good defense for 40 minutes (or close) to win. With such little preparation time, I don't think Duke's offense will be fully prepared for Louisville's matchup zone that will sometimes confuse opponents by switching from zone to pure man within the same possession. There's also the matter of preparing for their press.

Can Duke get it done on defense? I believe so. I think Matt can hold Damion Lee down, and Grayson can do the same with Trey Lewis. Derryck can be disruptive on Snyder using ball pressure. The key, as it often is, is that Duke will need to defensive rebound at a decent rate (say, 65%) and not get totally killed on the boards. Louisville is an excellent offensive rebounding team.

Is Damion Lee definitely back? I know he missed Saturday's game but I wasn't sure if that was a long-term injury.

[Bob Green]

I think Matt can hold Damion Lee down...

Lee did not play in the game against Boston College. Is he available tomorrow? I didn't hear why he was out on Saturday.

[Troublemaker]

You guys are right. It's not a done deal that Lee will play. Per Louisville journalist:

rickbozichVerified account ‏@rickbozich (https://twitter.com/rickbozich) 22h22 hours ago (https://twitter.com/rickbozich/status/696061007496515585)
Asked about percentage chance that he'll play at Duke Monday, Damion Lee looked at ice pack on left knee and declined to assign a number.

[gumbomoop]

Scroll down to very bottom of this article -- http://www.wave3.com/story/31159399/lee-calls-pregame-ceremony-surreal

Logical inference is that he's "probable" rather than "doubtful."

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

These next four games define our season. No more pining away for injured players, we gotta match up against the best and get some big Ws. Still no victories against ranked teams, but we can change a lot in the next two weeks.

We definitely control our destiny.

[Saratoga2]

Duke will need to play good defense for 40 minutes (or close) to win. With such little preparation time, I don't think Duke's offense will be fully prepared for Louisville's matchup zone that will sometimes confuse opponents by switching from zone to pure man within the same possession. There's also the matter of preparing for their press.

Can Duke get it done on defense? I believe so. I think Matt can hold Damion Lee down, and Grayson can do the same with Trey Lewis. Derryck can be disruptive on Snyder using ball pressure. The key, as it often is, is that Duke will need to defensive rebound at a decent rate (say, 65%) and not get totally killed on the boards. Louisville is an excellent offensive rebounding team.

Posted this on the last game string, but Duke lost the rebounding battle to NC State 38 to 29 and I think Louisville has some good and very aggressive rebounders. MP3 did okay against NC State but might have foul troubles against Louisville and their aggressiveness so I hope Chase can give him a rest while providing meaningful minutes.

I also think that Luke's PT should reflect the offensive threat he can be, perhaps at Matt's expense. Matt has been slumping offensively and his rebounding is very limited while Lukes defense is pretty good. It will be interesting to see how the PT is allotted in the back court.

[fuse]

Louisville's self imposed tournament ban can have an impact.

Are the Louisville players motivated to finish strong and have an impact, or are they disincented/ feeling betrayed by the school?

[freshmanjs]

Louisville's self imposed tournament ban can have an impact.

Are the Louisville players motivated to finish strong and have an impact, or are they disincented/ feeling betrayed by the school?

Based on their dominant performance yesterday, I think the idea that the Louisville players are not motivated is off base.

[freshmanjs]

Still no victories against ranked teams, but we can change a lot in the next two weeks.

We definitely control our destiny.

This is still not true. We beat Indiana (still).

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

This is still not true. We beat Indiana (still).

Indiana was not ranked at the time.

[freshmanjs]

Indiana was not ranked at the time.

Committees don't care. No one who beat ky or duke early is getting credit for a top win.

[Furniture]

Posted this on the last game string, but Duke lost the rebounding battle to NC State 38 to 29 and I think Louisville has some good and very aggressive rebounders. MP3 did okay against NC State but might have foul troubles against Louisville and their aggressiveness so I hope Chase can give him a rest while providing meaningful minutes.

I also think that Luke's PT should reflect the offensive threat he can be, perhaps at Matt's expense. Matt has been slumping offensively and his rebounding is very limited while Lukes defense is pretty good. It will be interesting to see how the PT is allotted in the back court.

I personally might agree with you but I don't see K ever reducing Matts minutes much. Except for the odd rest for some of the other players I think it's Luke and DT swapping minutes. I know DT screwed up a bit at the start of the second half ( after a great first) but I think the real reason he didn't get much playing time after that was because Luke was red hot...

By the way. K said DT starts on Monday....

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Committees don't care. No one who beat ky or duke early is getting credit for a top win.

That's fine, but we *still* haven't beaten a ranked team. Thanks for the correction, though.

[freshmanjs]

That's fine, but we *still* haven't beaten a ranked team. Thanks for the correction, though.

We beat Indiana and will get credit for a top 20 win for doing so. We beat them. They are ranked. We beat a ranked team.

The only conceivable reasons you might discount that are to win a semantic argument that has no value (congrats) or to disparage our team by withholding credit for a good win.

[fuse]

Based on their dominant performance yesterday, I think the idea that the Louisville players are not motivated is off base.

What I wrote was posed as a question, not a statement.

[freshmanjs]

What I wrote was posed as a question, not a statement.

That is true. Did someone say otherwise? I

[CDu]

We beat Indiana and will get credit for a top 20 win for doing so. We beat them. They are ranked. We beat a ranked team.

The only conceivable reasons you might discount that are to win a semantic argument that has no value (congrats) or to disparage our team by withholding credit for a good win.

To be fair, if your goal is assessing the quality of our team (which was I think Mt Devil's point), it is disingenuous to say that was a win over a ranked team. Indiana was TERRIBLE for the first few weeks of the season. They have since found their stride in 2016, but that win really doesn't say much about the quality of this Duke team.

If you are talking strictly from a committee perspective, then yes - for the time being it is a win against a ranked team. But I don't think that was the point being made. This team still has yet to win a game that would convince me they are a legit contender. Granted, they have only had one such game (if that, in UK) so far. But I think it is quite fair to say that this is a very unproven team.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

We beat Indiana and will get credit for a top 20 win for doing so. We beat them. They are ranked. We beat a ranked team.

The only conceivable reasons you might discount that are to win a semantic argument that has no value (congrats) or to disparage our team by withholding credit for a good win.

Hardly a semantic argument when I made a correct statement in my post that we have no wins over ranked teams. That is a "real" thing that is listed on team profiles come March.

And, it isn't disparaging, it is fully accurate, anx was mentioned in the context of four upcoming games against ranked teams.

[Bob Green]

MP3 did okay against NC State but might have foul troubles against Louisville and their aggressiveness so I hope Chase can give him a rest while providing meaningful minutes.

I also hope Jeter plays meaningful minutes but I do not expect it. I expect he will see some spot duty during the 1st half. Barring MP3 foul trouble, Jeter will play around 5 minutes. Remember, the catalyst for his four minutes playing time against State was Plumlee losing his shoe.

[freshmanjs]

I also hope Jeter plays meaningful minutes but I do not expect it. I expect he will see some spot duty during the 1st half. Barring MP3 foul trouble, Jeter will play around 5 minutes. Remember, the catalyst for his four minutes playing time against State was Plumlee losing his shoe.

Plumlee was also making the "i need a drink" motion before he came out.

[devildeac]

Plumlee was also making the "i need a drink" motion before he came out.

I made the same motion when I saw Vitale was one of the commentators :rolleyes: .

[luburch]

Lee will play per CBS Sports.

[Troublemaker]

Duke is 3.5-pt favorites tonight. (http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/)

Thanks for the report, luburch. I was hoping Lee would play. Let's see how our boys stack up against Louisville.

[FerryFor50]

Duke is 3.5-pt favorites tonight. (http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/)

Thanks for the report, luburch. I was hoping Lee would play. Let's see how our boys stack up against Louisville.

How the heck is Duke favored?

Yea, it's at Cameron. But Louisville has proven more mettle this year than Duke.

I just hope the self ban is a de-motivator rather than something that rallies the troops.

[CDu]

Assuming Lee does play (as it is apparently being reported), Louisville's starting lineup is a very good one:

C: Chinanu Onuaku is the starter here. He is the younger brother of Arinze Onuaku, though they look almost nothing alike. Chinanu is a long, lean(er) Onuaku, whereas Arinze was a true widebody built more like Boozer. Onuaku is no softy, but he's a good 40lbs lighter than his brother was at Syracuse. Still, Onuaku is a big presence inside. He averages 10 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks... in just 23.1 mpg. The issue with Onuaku is foul trouble. He commits a lot of them, and as a result he sits for long stretches. The Cardinals other big man (Mangok Mathiang) is still out with an injury, so they are really weak after Onuaku. The third big (who now is the primary backup) is Anas Mahmoud. Mahmoud is a stringbean 7'0", 220, who is an okay rebounder but a terrible shooter. Unlike Onuaku, he's incredibly soft. If need be, the Cardinals have an additional big man in the Vrankovic variety (Matz Stockman), a 7'0" 240 foul machine.

PF: The Cardinals, like Duke, don't have a big PF. They do have a couple of string bean options there, though. Jaylen Johnson (6'9", 215) starts. He splits time with Raymond Spaulding (6'10", 210). Both are your classic Syracuse-style PFs: very long, very lean, athletic guys who don't shoot well. Both are mostly minutes-filler, playing 15-20 mpg each.

SF: Here's the best player on Louisville's roster. Damion Lee (6'6", 200) is a dynamic grad transfer who can play either wing spot or an undersized PF. He scores from all over the floor, kind of like a shorter Brandon Ingram. He also is a menace in the passing lanes, averaging 1.6 steals per game. He's a terrific player (possibly first-team All-ACC), and we'll need to be aware of him at all times. After him, the dropoff is steep. Deng Adel (6'7", 190) is the backup. He is long and lean, and a not-terrible shooter capable of hitting open 3s.

Guards: Louisville rotates three guards. The best of them is another grad transfer Trey Lewis (6'2", 190). Lewis is a very strong player who also shoots really well. He makes the engine go, so to speak. He's not quite as good as some of Louisville's past players like Russ Smith or Terry Rozier, but he plays that same role of lead guard. He and Lee are the two perimeter players to fear most. After Lewis, the starting PG is Quentin Snider. Snider is a very steady PG - not a dynamic playmaker, but a solid guard. He has been a terrific 3pt shooter this year. What he isn't is a good 2pt shooter. In the half-court, he definitely defers to Lee and Lewis (and with good reason), but you probably shouldn't leave him unaccounted for from 3. After those two, Donovan Mitchell is the only other guard who gets minutes. Mitchell is a highly-recruited freshman who plays about 20 minutes per game behind the starters at guard. He's a streaky shooter with good strength and athleticism who can put up double-digits but can also be completely silent.

Louisville's offense is good but not great. Where they are a bear is on defense. They are #2 in the nation in Pomeroy's adjusted defensive efficiency. They press, they trap, and they play a mean matchup zone. If we can beat their pressure, they can be had in transition. But they can score in bunches off turnovers if we're not careful with the ball.

Louisville is, by a wide margin, the best team we will have faced to this point. It will be a very tough game for us. It's one we can certainly win (it sounds like we're favored at home), but if we do win it will be by a VERY WIDE margin the most impressive win on our season.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

How the heck is Duke favored?

Yea, it's at Cameron. But Louisville has proven more mettle this year than Duke.

I just hope the self ban is a de-motivator rather than something that rallies the troops.

Hard to gauge from a thrashing of BC.

Given that we play them twice in short order, I hope we can help demoralize them. Of course, if we beat them twice and they fall out of the rankings, then we (still) have no wins against ranked teams... :rolleyes:

[kAzE]

Assuming Lee does play (as it is apparently being reported), Louisville's starting lineup is a very good one:

C: Chinanu Onuaku is the starter here. He is the younger brother of Arinze Onuaku, though they look almost nothing alike. Chinanu is a long, lean(er) Onuaku, whereas Arinze was a true widebody built more like Boozer. Onuaku is no softy, but he's a good 40lbs lighter than his brother was at Syracuse. Still, Onuaku is a big presence inside. He averages 10 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks... in just 23.1 mpg. The issue with Onuaku is foul trouble. He commits a lot of them, and as a result he sits for long stretches. The Cardinals other big man (Mangok Mathiang) is still out with an injury, so they are really weak after Onuaku. The third big (who now is the primary backup) is Anas Mahmoud. Mahmoud is a stringbean 7'0", 220, who is an okay rebounder but a terrible shooter. Unlike Onuaku, he's incredibly soft. If need be, the Cardinals have an additional big man in the Vrankovic variety (Matz Stockman), a 7'0" 240 foul machine.

PF: The Cardinals, like Duke, don't have a big PF. They do have a couple of string bean options there, though. Jaylen Johnson (6'9", 215) starts. He splits time with Raymond Spaulding (6'10", 210). Both are your classic Syracuse-style PFs: very long, very lean, athletic guys who don't shoot well. Both are mostly minutes-filler, playing 15-20 mpg each.

SF: Here's the best player on Louisville's roster. Damion Lee (6'6", 200) is a dynamic grad transfer who can play either wing spot or an undersized PF. He scores from all over the floor, kind of like a shorter Brandon Ingram. He also is a menace in the passing lanes, averaging 1.6 steals per game. He's a terrific player (possibly first-team All-ACC), and we'll need to be aware of him at all times. After him, the dropoff is steep. Deng Adel (6'7", 190) is the backup. He is long and lean, and a not-terrible shooter capable of hitting open 3s.

Guards: Louisville rotates three guards. The best of them is another grad transfer Trey Lewis (6'2", 190). Lewis is a very strong player who also shoots really well. He makes the engine go, so to speak. He's not quite as good as some of Louisville's past players like Russ Smith or Terry Rozier, but he plays that same role of lead guard. He and Lee are the two perimeter players to fear most. After Lewis, the starting PG is Quentin Snider. Snider is a very steady PG - not a dynamic playmaker, but a solid guard. He has been a terrific 3pt shooter this year. What he isn't is a good 2pt shooter. In the half-court, he definitely defers to Lee and Lewis (and with good reason), but you probably shouldn't leave him unaccounted for from 3. After those two, Donovan Mitchell is the only other guard who gets minutes. Mitchell is a highly-recruited freshman who plays about 20 minutes per game behind the starters at guard. He's a streaky shooter with good strength and athleticism who can put up double-digits but can also be completely silent.

Louisville's offense is good but not great. Where they are a bear is on defense. They are #2 in the nation in Pomeroy's adjusted defensive efficiency. They press, they trap, and they play a mean matchup zone. If we can beat their pressure, they can be had in transition. But they can score in bunches off turnovers if we're not careful with the ball.

Louisville is, by a wide margin, the best team we will have faced to this point. It will be a very tough game for us. It's one we can certainly win (it sounds like we're favored at home), but if we do win it will be by a VERY WIDE margin the most impressive win on our season.

Great scouting report! Pitino has confirmed Damion Lee will play tonight, so we will get Louisville (minus Mathiang) at close to full strength. I hope our team is ready after such a short layoff, because we're going to need to be very sharp offensively to score on these guys. We need to start this 4-game gauntlet with a W!!

[MCFinARL]

To be fair, if your goal is assessing the quality of our team (which was I think Mt Devil's point), it is disingenuous to say that was a win over a ranked team. Indiana was TERRIBLE for the first few weeks of the season. They have since found their stride in 2016, but that win really doesn't say much about the quality of this Duke team.

If you are talking strictly from a committee perspective, then yes - for the time being it is a win against a ranked team. But I don't think that was the point being made. This team still has yet to win a game that would convince me they are a legit contender. Granted, they have only had one such game (if that, in UK) so far. But I think it is quite fair to say that this is a very unproven team.

Yes--and "the time being" could run out today, as Indiana, ranked 22 last Monday, lost to 12-12 Penn State over the weekend.

[daveduke76]

I made the same motion when I saw Vitale was one of the commentators :rolleyes: .
Funny and so true!
Use to love the guy, well still do, but tired of his "color"

[slower]

Duke is 3.5-pt favorites tonight. (http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/)

Thanks for the report, luburch. I was hoping Lee would play. Let's see how our boys stack up against Louisville.

But what will the final margin be?

Kidding, man - just kidding. :p

[jimsumner]

The key IMO is for Allen, Jones and Kennard to help out Plumlee and Ingram by grabbing some defensive rebounds. Second-chance points have just killed Duke in the last month.

[Billy Dat]

Louisville is, by a wide margin, the best team we will have faced to this point. It will be a very tough game for us. It's one we can certainly win (it sounds like we're favored at home), but if we do win it will be by a VERY WIDE margin the most impressive win on our season.

This is an honest question because I don't know, Louisville is that much better than Miami?

[luburch]

This is an honest question because I don't know, Louisville is that much better than Miami?

Kenpom has Louisville 7th and Miami 12th. So it's fairly close. Duke at 17th FWIW.

[brlftz]

This is an honest question because I don't know, Louisville is that much better than Miami?

...or Kentucky, which beat Louisville earlier this year?

[CDu]

This is an honest question because I don't know, Louisville is that much better than Miami?

No, they are not that much better than Miami (or Kentucky). But we didn't beat Miami (nor Kentucky). So that's not really relevant in terms of my statement.

[Billy Dat]

No, they are not that much better than Miami (or Kentucky). But we didn't beat Miami (nor Kentucky). So that's not really relevant in terms of my statement.

Cool, I certainly agree that beating them would be our #1 win of the year by a wide margin due to how bad Indiana was when we played them, and us not having Amile.

[Olympic Fan]

It's about time that Duke starts beating some quality teams.

The debate about Duke's wins over "ranked" teams is pretty irrelevant ... of MUCH more importance when the Selection Committee sits down are wins over Top 25/Top50/Top 100 RPI teams. Obviously those will change by Selection Sunday, but as of this moment, Duke's top 25/top 50 resume is not very good.

In fact, as of Monday afternoon, Duke has one top 50 win -- and it's not Indiana (currently 56 in the RPI).

Duke's best win is the November victory over No. 40 VCU. We have five top 50 losses -- to No. 14 Miami, No. 18 Utah, No. 19 Kentucky, No. 28 Notre Dame and No. 44 Syracuse.

The last month offers Duke plenty of chances to improve its resume -- seven of the team's final right regular season games are against top 50 RPI teams -- No. 4 Virginia, No. 9 UNC (twice), No. 21 Louisville (twice), No. 35 FSU and No. 39 Pitt (plus No. 89 Wake Forest).

Normally, this is not a problem for Duke -- last year, I think Duke had more top 50 wins than anybody in the NCAA. But this year's weak non-conference slate and back-loaded ACC schedule has hurt. Duke's overall schedule strength is a decent 42 (and that will climb a bunch in the next three weeks) with a solid No. 19 non-conference SOS. But No. 40 VCU. No. 56 Indiana, No. 60 Yale and No. 72 Georgetown are the strongest Duke wins so far.

FWIW, Duke is 0-3 vs. the top 25; 1-5 vs. the top 50, but a solid 10-6 vs. the top 100 (meaning Duke is 9-1 against teams from 51-100).

[-jk]

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Let's Go Duke!

-jk

[riverside6]

Live tempo-based stats for Duke/Louisville, starters posted...

http://www.scacchoops.com/louisville-at-duke-basketball-live-stats-02082016

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Excellent half. Solid D, patient offense, confident MP3

[DRC]

All I can say is this is a different Duke team than I've seen in the previous several games. Thornton is having a tough time but the team overall is playing well with more 'purpose'. Go Duke!!

[rsvman]

defense looks a lot stronger.

can't believe they called a block on Grayson on that one play.

Jeter put in a few good minutes, too.

[DRC]

Wow.... who does Allen think he is on that flagrant trip.... Christian Laetner? Not smart.

[rsvman]

the reef who made that charge call on Thornton couldn't possibly have seen what actually happened. the defensive player was directly blocking his view.

[duke09hms]

Ugh and just like that a 14-pt lead is down to 1.

[jipops]

Fatigue

[duke09hms]

Fatigue

Fatigue in the first 6 minutes of the new half? Doubtful. Poor decision making, TOs, easy buckets given away.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Toughness check.

[rsvman]

I sure hope we find a way to scratch out a win after all this

[duke09hms]

Thornton!!!! Huge bucket